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| Marcel Reed, Texas A&M |
Current Picks Record: 68-39
Upsets: 5-9
Superdogs: 6-4
(#3) Texas Longhorns @ (#20) Texas A&M Aggies
Line: Texas -5.5
O/U: 48.5
It's back! After a decade-and-a-half of being dead, the "Lone Star Showdown" between Texas and Texas A&M returns this weekend and has serious implications. The game may not only decide who ends up in the SEC Championship Game, it will have a significant impact on the College Football Playoff race as we hit the home stretch of the regular season. As if the return of the rivalry wasn't reason enough to tune in, such an important game should provide plenty of entertainment this Saturday.
Texas enters the game as winners of four straight contests, but there are questions for the Longhorns as they prepare for the weekend. Quarterback Quinn Ewers injured his ankle in the win over Kentucky last weekend, and has been dealing with a mild sprain throughout the week. The assumption is that he'll still start as normal, but it's unfortunate timing as the Longhorns prepare for their most important game of the regular season. It would not be surprising if we do see some of Arch Manning, even if it's in designed packages. Either way, Texas could certainly use help from a supporting cast that has had an up-and-down fall, despite the offensive success. Quintrevion Wisner and Jaydon Blue remain an effective duo out of the backfield, but they do face down an imposing A&M defensive front, one that should be extra motivated by the bright lights of the rivalry game. On the outside, Texas has struggled to find a consistent No. 1 all season, as they've sorely missed Xavier Worthy's playmaking. Matthew Golden has emerged as their most reliable weapon over the past month and Isaiah Bond is a home run hitter, but it will be interesting to see whether the duo show up for this one. Tight end Gunnar Helm is actually the team's leading receiver and should play a pivotal role in the underneath stuff, which could help expose A&M over-the-top. That has to be a concern for the Aggies, who have suffered breakdowns on the back end in the last few weeks we weren't used to seeing early on this fall. Now, Texas doesn't have a Cam Coleman like Auburn did last Saturday, but Mike Elko and this staff have to figure out what went wrong and adjust quickly. We've seen Ewers show out in these types of games and with his arm, one or two deep balls could change the entire complexion of this rivalry game.
Although they ended up putting 41 points on the board in the loss to Auburn last weekend, A&M has to be feeling like they could have done even more after a dropped pass by Amari Daniels in the end zone prevented them from sending it into another overtime. That should give this offense even more reason to come out firing, and they've really turned the page down the stretch after taking time to gel early on this season. Marcel Reed has solidified his role as the starting quarterback over Conner Weigman, with Reed playing with a poise and maturity well beyond his years. There are still occasionally the questionable decisions, but he has put the Aggies consistently in a position to win, and shouldn't be intimidated at all by this Texas defense. That doesn't mean we should expect A&M to be chucking the ball all over the field - their bread and butter remains their efficient ground game. However, the Aggies do seem to be getting more comfortable going vertical with this offense as Reed has gained more experience, and the rhythm of this passing attack with Noah Thomas looked awfully impressive a week ago. The Longhorn defense poses an interesting challenge - despite the departures they took in their front seven over the offseason, they've been stout up front, setting the tone for the entire defense. A&M is a much more physical and athletic team than they've seen for some time, probably since the Georgia game, when the Bulldogs were pretty beat up on the offensive line. This is going to have the real feel of an SEC contest, with these two duking it out in the trenches, and the athletes on both sides of the ball are vastly different than what we became accustomed to all those years in the Big 12.
Not only is it a treat to see these two resume their long-standing rivalry, but the fact that there is so much on the line makes this the most consequential game of rivalry weekend. It's been over a month since the Longhorns played a team on the level of Texas A&M, so I think there will be have to be adjustments throughout the sixty minutes, but they seem to be playing better football at this point in the year and bring a clear identity to the table. Even with the questions around Ewers, Texas is the stronger football team - for now.
The Pick: Texas, 31 Texas A&M, 21
(#15) South Carolina Gamecocks @ (#12) Clemson Tigers
Line: Clemson -2.5
Clemson & South Carolina have been playing each other every year since 1909 (with the obvious exception of 2020) but much in the same vein of Texas-Texas A&M, rarely has the game had this type of national ramifications. Both sit on the edge of College Football Playoff contention and an upset or two ahead of them in the rankings could slide the winner into the 12-team field. With so much on the line, this bitter in-state rivalry is turned up a notch this weekend.
One of the more underrated storylines in college football this fall has been the growth of quarterback Cade Klubnik and by extension, the Clemson offense. This unit took their lumps during a frustrating debut campaign with offensive coordinator Garrett Riley, but they've come into their own in 2024 and average nearly 38 points per game. Klubnik has been the catalyst, throwing for 2,671 yards and 29 touchdowns through the air, and adding 375 and five more with his legs. With Klubnik, the Tigers are able to challenge teams vertically in a way they simply weren't for the last several seasons, and bruising tailback Phil Mafah still provides them a workhorse who can tire out defenses with his running. The receiver corps may not be at the standard of past Clemson groups, especially for a program that has been a machine in churning out NFL wide outs, but Antonio Williams and the freshman combo of Bryant Wesco Jr. and T.J. Moore should give South Carolina plenty to think about down the field. However, even with all that, what I'm watching closely is how their offensive line performs in this one. The Gamecocks have one of the best defensive lines anywhere in the nation, a group that includes surefire Freshman All-American Dylan Stewart, as well as veterans Kyle Kennard and T.J. Sanders. This defensive front has been what has fueled South Carolina's surprising success all season, a group that disrupts the rhythm of opposing offenses, forcing bad decisions and turnovers that the Gamecocks use to build leads or flip games. Now, the belief heading into the season for Clemson was that this offensive line was going to be a strength with plenty of experience throughout the unit, and it has played well for much of the season. But, they haven't played up to that level in some of their more important games, and South Carolina poses a major challenge. This war between these two groups may just end up deciding this game.
There's nothing particularly flashy about this Gamecock offense, but it's done enough to help this team win eight games. The ground game has been the primary fuel, with tailback Raheim Sanders and the rushing ability of LaNorris Sellers, but South Carolina has looked more willing to attack with their passing game down the stretch. It's obviously helped that Sellers is playing with more confidence, and looks to be getting better each week. He's surpassed 200 yards and thrown for multiple touchdowns in each of the last four games, including going for 353 and five touchdowns in their last SEC matchup against Missouri. This is a scary quarterback to defend when he's "on" - his slithery rushing ability and huge arm force defenses unbalanced, and continue to open up opportunities for other Gamecocks. This could be the perfect matchup for him to continue playing hot. Clemson has an unsurprisingly elite defensive line, and their linebacker corps has also played well. However, the secondary has proven to be a problem in some of their most important games, and the Gamecocks should be able to move the ball. Tight end Joshua Simon could also be a real mismatch for them, an athletic tight end who has proven to be quite the reliable target for Sellers all fall long.
Clemson has recovered nicely since falling flat in their season opener, with the notable exception of the Louisville game, but I think South Carolina has a chance to get them here. The Gamecocks are entering with significant momentum, and they match up well with the Tigers. Going into Death Valley for a rivalry game should only help them turn it up a notch.
The Pick: South Carolina, 35 Clemson, 31
Other Picks
(#24) Kansas State Wildcats @ (#18) Iowa State Cyclones -- "Farmageddon" is an underrated college football rivalry, and it's even more fun when there's so much on the line in the Big 12. These two play similar styles and are easily matched, so I'll give the Cyclones the benefit of the doubt here being in Ames.
The Pick: Iowa State, 24 Kansas State, 21
Auburn Tigers @ (#13) Alabama Crimson Tide -- I suspect Kalen DeBoer will have his Alabama boys ready to go after the embarrassing loss to Oklahoma a week ago. Auburn is playing well at the moment, but I think the Tide finish the job.
The Pick: Alabama, 28 Auburn, 23
Michigan Wolverines @ (#2) Ohio State Buckeyes -- Could Michigan spoil Ohio State's season with an upset in this one? I just don't think they have the offensive weapons to keep up, especially with the Buckeye defense playing so well.
The Pick: Ohio State, 38 Michigan, 17
Minnesota Golden Gophers @ Wisconsin Badgers -- Wisconsin has more to play for in this contest given they need a win to secure a bowl berth, but Minnesota has looked like the far superior team on the year - and could easily be 9-2 on the year. I think they find a way to go into Madison and win what will likely be an ugly one.
The Pick: Minnesota, 20 Wisconsin, 14
Upset: Arkansas Razorbacks @ (#21) Missouri Tigers -- I don't mean to pick on Missouri given they were my upset pick last week, but I'm just not convinced this is the 21st best team in the nation. Arkansas has been inconsistent, but they're a tough out, and I think they can win this game.
The Pick: Arkansas, 30 Missouri, 21
Superdog (covers > 21 point spread): Mississippi State Bulldogs (+27) @ Ole Miss Rebels -- First off, the Egg Bowl should be on Thanksgiving. But, put that aside for a moment - Mississippi State has been a very effective superdog for me this year. It's been a rough year record-wise for Jeff Lebby this year, but the future looks bright.
The Pick: Ole Miss, 41 Mississippi State, 24
Lock of the Week: Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-7) @ USC Trojans -- Turning to Jaden Maiva at quarterback has made USC a bit more interesting, but this remains a flawed football team. Notre Dame seems to be getting stronger down the stretch, so I like them to win this game comfortably.
The Pick: Notre Dame, 34 USC, 21
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