March Madness 2023: Final Four Picks

Jordan Hawkins, UConn

 

9 Florida Atlantic Owls vs. 5 San Diego State Aztecs

We've seen unique and nontraditional Final Four matchups, but this year's game between Florida Atlantic and San Diego State may take the cake as the most surprising I can recall in my lifetime. That's not a knock against these two teams, but the reality is that this is uncharted territory for both programs. Florida Atlantic had made the NCAA Tournament just once in school history and had never won a game in the Big Dance. Now, they are just 40 minutes away from competing for a National Title. San Diego State has traditionally had more success, but they are also playing in their first Final Four in program history. So, here we are, the Owls and Aztecs opening up the 2023 Final Four in Houston with the hopes of both continuing their magical runs.

Florida Atlantic head man Dusty May has built a very modern college basketball roster. It's essentially four guards starting and one traditional big, Vladislav Goldin, all who play at a ferocious pace. Goldin oftentimes doesn't get the attention of FAU's guards, but the Russian transplant has been the heart and soul of the team during this NCAA Tournament run. He's not very flashy or overly impressive in one area, but he's a competitor who brings his "A" game the entire 40 minutes. Goldin has been an active presence around the rim the entire Tournament, but faces one of his toughest tests in the form of San Diego State's Nathan Mensah. Expect a real battle between these two on the block, and both do a tremendous job of playing physical without fouling. Goldin will swallow up possessions inside, but the Owls feature plenty of playmaking on the perimeter, with Johnell Davis, Alijah Martin, Bryan Greenlee, and more. They're particularly effective because this offense doesn't lean solely on one of these guys. Just about everybody on the roster can take over games and hit the big shot when needed. Veteran Michael Forrest is a prime example; he played sparingly in the wins over Memphis and Farleigh Dickinson, but then came on and was a real spark off the bench in the Tennessee win, scoring 11 points and playing great defense. It's that type of depth that has been the most surprising to me during this run. As good as the top guys are on this Owl roster, the ninth or tenth guy can come and contribute in the same way. That's a testament to the culture of confidence May has built in this program, and the type of athlete they've recruited and developed. This team isn't going to shy away from the bright lights of the Final Four; they're going to respond and compete the entire way.

San Diego State has been one of the most consistent programs on the West Coast for some time now and hovered around the Top 25 all season, but are still a surprising participant in this Saturday's action. Beating a tough pair of mid-majors on the first weekend was one thing, but shocking top-seeded Alabama and the dynamic Creighton Bluejays was on a whole different level. The Creighton win didn't come without controversy, but that shouldn't overshadow what Brian Dutcher's team has done over the last several weeks. They've shut down high-flying offenses one after another with stifling defense and played a smart, methodical brand of basketball offensively. It's a recipe you don't see that much anymore in college basketball, but one that has run to near perfection. It helps that the Aztecs have great balance on offense, plenty of experience, and a roster that understands their system and knows their respective roles. The star of the roster is Matt Bradley, a former Cal transfer, and the lone Aztec to average over 10 points per game. However, the last two wins have been an indication of what makes San Diego State so tough to beat. Bradley has scored just eight points total, but the offense has come from other sources, and the defense has given them an edge. Much like FAU, it's anybody's guess who is going to step up and be the top dog for San Diego State on a given night, which makes them so unpredictable. In the Creighton win, it was Lamont Butler pacing them with 18 points; in the Alabama win, it was Darion Trammel with 21. That type of balance and depth makes them a tough out, no matter the opponent.

It still boggles my mind that one of these two teams will be playing for the 2023 National Title. But, isn't that what makes the NCAA Tournament so compelling? Two teams and two programs that have never been to this point before, matching up for an opportunity to play on the sport's largest stage. It feels like it should be a great game, too. I trust Florida Atlantic a bit more offensively than SDSU, but the Aztecs counter with an elite defense and superb rim-protector in Mensah. The Owls are a better shooting team generally, but San Diego State maintains an efficient offense, one that can get awfully hot itself. It almost feels like a coin toss to me, as most of this Tournament has been, but the Aztec superiority defensively makes me give them the slight edge. We know that defense is going to show up night after night, which isn't always the case for FAU's offense. As long as they can do just enough offensively, San Diego State earns their spot in the National Championship.

San Diego State by five

5 Miami Hurricanes vs. 4 UConn Huskies

Much has been said about the lack of a top three seed in this year's Final Four, but that doesn't mean the event isn't without a blue blood. UConn has won four National Titles since 1999, more than any other program in that span, and is closing in on a fifth. Standing in their way are the Miami Hurricanes, who got all they could handle from Drake in the first round but has looked more impressive in each passing game.

The focal point for UConn is none other than Adama Sanogo, a force underneath who has reached a new level this NCAA Tournament. We've always known he can score and rebound, but the Gonzaga win displayed even more: Sanogo can pass the ball as well as any big at this level. He had six assists in the win over the Bulldogs, and forces defenses into an incredibly tough position. On one hand, they have to help against him underneath, but Sanogo is so good at finding the open man when defenses collapse. It helps that the Huskies have an abundance of shooters surrounding him, namely Jordan Hawkins and Andre Jackson. Hawkins has been the team's breakout star on the season and is absolutely on fire right now, while Jackson is a modern "3-and-D" who space the floor and shut down opposing offenses going the other way. Add in supporting pieces like Joey Calcaterra and Tristen Newton, it's no surprise the Huskies have overwhelmed every opponent they've faced throughout this Tournament. They're playing with supreme confidence right now and it feels like Miami is going to have to draw up something defensively to be able to keep up for 40 minutes.

Yet, if there is a team that can hang with UConn right now scoring, it's the Miami Hurricanes. Jim Larranaga's club averaged just under 80 points per game on the regular season and has eclipsed that 80-point threshold in each of their last three victories. The guards are what fuel Miami, as the trio of Jordan Miller, Isaiah Wong, and Nijel Pack is about as good as you will find anywhere in college basketball. Wong is the heartbeat of the team, their most dangerous scorer and a capable passer, but don't overlook Miller or Pack's importance. Both have proven they can handle leading roles when needed, and Pack is arguably the best shooter on any of the four remaining teams. The concern I do have for the Hurricanes is their size; although Miller and others play much larger than most at their respective positions, there's really only one traditional big that sees hefty minutes. That is none other than Norchad Omier, and even he isn't a prototypical big, playing more of a combo forward role at 6'7", 248 pounds. I don't doubt that Miami can still find ways to score on UConn despite their lack of size, but the larger concern is on defense. Is there anybody on this roster that has a legitimate shot to containing Sanogo on the block? Omier is going to give is his best shot, but Sanogo has a clear edge here, and he's also an incredibly tough player to get into foul trouble, making it difficult to get him out of the game. With all of this being said, I had the same concern for the 'Canes in their last two games against Texas and Indiana, and they did a superb job mitigating the size differential.

Nearly two decades ago now, Jim Larranaga's George Mason Patriots pulled off one of the all-time upsets by shocking UConn in the 2006 Elite Eight. Times have changed a lot since then, but the opportunity remains the same for Larranaga: beating the Huskies and securing his program one of their most important wins in school history. Unfortunately, I don't see a magical upset taking place this time, although Miami is just a five-point underdog. It's too difficult to pick against UConn right now; they've dominated every team that has stood in their path so far, including some really quality basketball teams. They're shooting lights out, playing with a different type of energy, and look like a basketball team on a mission. It's hard to not just pick against the Huskies, but imagine anybody else takes home the 2023 National Title. But this is college basketball and if this year has shown us anything, it's to expect the unexpected.

UConn by eight

March Madness 2023: Sweet 16 Picks (South, Midwest Regions)

Marcus Carr, Texas

 South Region

1 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. 5 San Diego State Aztecs

Alabama earned the 2023 NCAA Tournament's top seed after an impressive regular season, and the Tide have looked every bit deserving over their first two games of March Madness. They ran past 16-seed Texas A&M-Corpus Christi and then dismantled 8-seed Maryland, earning them a spot in the Sweet 16. Their opponent is San Diego State, the Mountain West regular season and tournament champion, who has beaten Charleston and Furman to get to this spot. The Tide remain the clear favorite, but don't overlook the Aztecs, a well-coached, balanced foe.

All eyes will be on Alabama's star freshman Brandon Miller entering this contest, as he has been less than 100 percent since injuring his groin in the SEC Tournament. It hasn't stopped the Tide, clearly, but this is a significantly more dangerous team with Miller full-go. He's one of the most dominant isolation scorers in recent memory, at least as a true frosh, but his defense is vastly underrated. He won't necessarily block a bunch of shots or force turnovers, but Miller's energy and activity makes him a force on both ends. He's expected to start, but is likely to still be limited. That's likely to put a magnifying glass on the other athletes Alabama boasts, who have shown they can handle the load. The backcourt trio of Mark Sears, Jahvon Quinerly, and Jaden Bradley remains one of the best in the country, but I think it's the battle in the frontcourt that could end up deciding this one. Sophomore center Charles Bediako isn't going to be leaned on as a scorer very much, but he's proven to be an extremely effective player in the post whose role could be even larger with Miller still not 100 percent. Bediako is a physical rebounder and plus-defender who was the unsung hero in the Tide's win over Maryland. His play against San Diego State's primary big, Nathan Mensah, could be a deciding factor.

Alabama has played an up-tempo style since Nate Oats took over, playing at a relentless, breakneck pace. Not only are they in the top ten nationally in scoring, they're sixth in possessions per game, and look to maximize every single opportunity. San Diego State is almost the complete opposite; they play incredibly short-paced and thrive in the half-court offensively. It's an extremely methodical approach, but one that has yielded good results over the course of 2022-2023 and into the Tournament. It also helps that the Aztecs feature a balanced, well-rounded offense. Although Matt Bradley is the primary scorer, just about every Aztec can step up and make plays when needed, as was the case with 16 points from Micah Parrish in the win over Furman. This San Diego State team also features one of the stingiest defenses you will find in Division I basketball. They block a bunch of shots on the inside and even though they don't force a bunch of turnovers, they feature nasty perimeter defense. The defense has been tremendous in the Tournament so far, holding both Charleston and Furman under 60 points and just 32% shooting from the field.

This truly is a matchup of contrasting styles. Alabama is going to play as fast as possible and take their chances offensively. It's worked all season, but the Aztecs may be the best defense they've seen all season, and know how to keep offenses off-balance. San Diego State is going to try and slow things down and muck it up, but that's easier said than done when you're facing Brandon Miller and company. I think the Aztecs are still being a bit overlooked by the general public, and they can certainly topple the Tide, particularly if Miller isn't completely healthy. But the smart money is still on Alabama to keep on rolling to the Elite Eight.

Alabama by ten

15 Princeton Tigers vs. 6 Creighton Bluejays

For the third straight year, a 15-seed enters the second weekend with a chance to move on to the Elite Eight. This year, it's Princeton, who shocked Arizona in the first round and followed it up by handling Missouri. The team that stands in their path is sixth-seeded Creighton, who looked awfully impressive in their win last weekend against Baylor and is searching for their first Elite Eight since 1941.

Princeton has won in two different ways this NCAA Tournament. Despite a poor shooting performance against Arizona, the Tigers shut down the Wildcats down the stretch on the other end and made the big shots when they needed. The offense found its rhythm against Missouri, particularly from three, and has generally been a strong shooting team all season. They're unlikely to move on without a quality offensive showing; Creighton has an abundance of offensive weapons and seems to be hitting their stride at the right time. Princeton will lean on forward Tosan Evbuomwan as they have all season, but senior guard Ryan Langborg may be the X-factor. He was the best player on the court in the win over Missouri and can take over when he's on, but the inconsistency has also been there. Either way, keeping turnovers to a minimum will be a point of emphasis for Mitch Henderson's team. They did a great job taking care of the ball against Missouri and have featured a disciplined offense all season, but the Bluejays capitalize on turnovers as well as anybody in the country.

I'm a huge fan of the roster Greg McDermott has built at Creighton and after a rough Big East Tournament defeat at the hands of Xavier, the Bluejays have looked dangerous in the first two March Madness victories. Ryan Nembhard paces the offense as the team's floor general, but the Bluejays can score from every place on the court. Ryan Kalkbrenner is a load to handle in the low post, Baylor Scheierman can take over games, and Arthur Kaluma and Trey Alexander are tremendous complementary pieces. Yet, the three-point shot still dictates so much of Creighton's success. When the Bluejays are firing on all cylinders from three, it's a legitimate Final Four team. But too often, the shooting from deep has been bad, and the offense gets bogged down. Princeton has enough defensively to make it a difficult night, but it's hard to know which version of Creighton is going to come out Friday night.

Princeton has been a tremendous story and something tells me this team is not going to roll over and let Creighton breeze to an Elite Eight. Marshall Henderson has a hard-nosed basketball team that will compete on both ends the entire way. But, it still feels like the Bluejays just have too much to offer and at some point, the clock always strikes midnight for Cinderellas.

Creighton by twelve

Midwest Region

5 Miami Hurricanes vs. 1 Houston Cougars

Houston enters the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament just two wins away from playing in their home city in the Final Four. On the other side, Miami survived a thriller against Drake in the opening round and then dominated Indiana to move on to the Sweet 16. It's another clash of contrasting styles, as Houston's stifling defense will test Miami's high-flying offense.

There's nothing pretty about the way Houston plays, but there's no arguing against its effectiveness. Kelvin Sampson's program just keeps on winning and despite an underwhelming first two games, they're going to be an incredibly tough out. Their star, Marcus Sasser, remains banged up but should be a full go for this one, as is the case with fellow backcourt mate Jamal Shead. More so than most lead guards, Sasser really carries this Cougar offense. It's not just the scoring, but the way he opens up space for Houston's other playmakers, and creates opportunities. Still, he'll need some supporting help, which is likely to come from either Shead or Tramon Mark, who finished with 26 points in the win over Auburn. As long as the Cougars are able to enough offensively, they should have a clear advantage in nearly every other facet of the game. The defense is such a pain to play; Houston does an incredible job playing physical but not fouling, and they actively push you away from the rim every time down the court. Just as important, they don't allow any second-chance opportunities. This is about as good of a rebounding team as you'll find at this level, and they have a slight advantage in size over the 'Canes.

Isaiah Wong, Nijel Pack, and Jordan Miller have been a three-headed monster all season for the Hurricanes, leading an offense that averages nearly 80 points per game. Wong is the player that really strikes fear into opposing defenses. He'll take and make difficult shots and seems to turn it up a gear in the big games. Wong is fresh off a 27-point showing in the win over Indiana, and his rebounding prowess for his position will be huge in this game. Big man Norchad Omier will be a key player in the middle for Miami. The 6'7" sophomore plays much larger than his height may suggest and he's a relentless rebounder, but will have his work cut out for him in this one. Staying out of foul trouble will be just as important; Houston is great at forcing contact and finishing through it, and Omier has been taken out of several contests because of fouls. Expect Pack and Miller to still be featured heavily, and they've proven to be much more than complementary pieces. Pack is the team's best three-point shooter and may be leaned on heavily against this Cougar defense, while Miller can play multiple positions and has been generally more consistent scoring the ball than Wong.

Miami's going to want to get out and run, turning up the pace and forcing Houston to play off-balance. It's certainly a strategy the Hurricanes can succeed at, but the Cougars are simply a defensive force. It's rare to see collegiate teams control the pace quite the way this team does, and they should look forward to the challenge of stopping Miami's high-scoring trio. As long as the Cougars do just enough offensively, I see them leaving Friday night on the doorstep of a Final Four.

Houston by eight

3 Xavier Musketeers vs. 2 Texas Longhorns

Although Xavier and Texas both earned top seeds in the Midwest Region, it's still pretty amazing both programs have gotten to this point. Xavier missed the NCAA Tournament a year ago and were breaking in a new head coach in Sean Miller, but have looked the part all season long. Texas has been perched near the top of the polls throughout 2022-2023, but they've done so despite the offseason drama that surrounded Chris Beard and his dismissal. Now, the two collide in Kansas City with the opportunity to be one of the final eight teams remaining in the 2023 NCAA Tournament.

Xavier had plenty of talent under former head man Travis Steele, but Miller has cultivated it into a real force on both ends. Souley Boum has been one of the most impactful transfers in college basketball this year, coming from UTEP and providing a major spark to the Musketeer offense. He's not only their leading scorer, but the heart-and-soul of the team. He'll be the focal point of the Xavier attack once more, but the Musketeers have plenty of other pieces that can fuel one of the nation's highest-scoring offenses. Colby Jones and Adam Kunkel are an underrated pairing on the wings, and Jack Nunge has taken on an elevated role with the absence of Zach Freemantle. Everybody in the rotation can score, but what really stands out about Xavier is how well they move the basketball. They're one of the top passing teams in the nation and it enables them to get good looks every time they're down the court. They do so without turning the ball over, a testament to the discipline and control that Miller has instilled into the program.

There's no shortage of playmakers for the Longhorns, spearheaded by veteran Marcus Carr. The former Pittsburgh and Minnesota transfer is having a splendid final season of college basketball, leading the team in scoring, assists, and steals. He's also learned to be more efficient and make better decisions, both in shot selection and passing. Playing alongside Tyrese Hunter has been a net-positive for both. Although Hunter cooled off down the stretch, he's one of the best distributors in the nation and has found other ways to impact the game. Then there's the unsung hero of the team's success, Sir'Jabari Rice, the Big 12's Sixth Man of the Year. Rice has been a joy to watch all season and has been particularly effective in the NCAA Tournament. His shot has been falling at an impressive rate, but Rice can do so much more than just score. He's a good passer, effective on the glass, and is an excellent on-ball defender. He will still come off the bench, but averages over 25 minutes per game, and finds a way to make his presence felt every time he's on the court. Add in Timmy Allen, Dylan Disu, and Christian Bishop in the frontcourt and Texas should have no troubles hanging with Xavier's offense. Important for them will be maintaining their edge defensively, which is when they play their best basketball. They did a great job running Penn State off the three-point line in their previous win, and must do so again in this one.

I wasn't super high on Xavier entering the NCAA Tournament, but this team deserves a lot of respect. They've faced down a brutal schedule and have been consistent all year long, but I still envision Texas as the better pick here. There's simply too many athletes Texas can throw at you over the course of 40 minutes, and Carr is the best player on the court. If the defense can maintain its intensity, interim head coach Rodney Terry takes the Longhorns to the Elite Eight, and moves one step closer to the full-time gig.

Texas by five

March Madness 2023: Sweet 16 Picks (East, West Regions)

Drew Timme, Gonzaga

 

East Region

 7 Michigan State Spartans vs. 3 Kansas State Wildcats

January, February, Izzo. The legendary Michigan State head coach has once again exceeded expectations in the NCAA Tournament, engineering an upset of second-seeded Marquette and leading the lone Big Ten to make it to the second weekend. Next up is Kansas State, who was picked last in the Big 12 preseason, but has been one of the best stories of the 2022-2023 season.

This isn't the flashiest team Izzo has had in East Lansing nor is it the most explosive, but they do a lot of things well and play a tough brand of basketball. The upset of Marquette this past weekend was a great example of why you can never count out Izzo-led teams. Despite the fact the Spartans shot horrendously from three-point territory, just 13%, their tough defense and methodical offense helped them overcome the Golden Eagles. Of course, it did help that lead guard Tyson Walker had a superb showing, pacing all scorers with 23 points. Walker has been inconsistent throughout his short MSU career after transferring from Northeastern, but he's been playing the best basketball of his career down the stretch. He's joined by two capable guards in A.J. Hoggard and sniper Jaden Adkins, and I love the frontcourt duo of Joey Hauser and Malik Hall. Hauser has been playing with much more confidence all season and it looks like Hall is finally getting his feet under him after injuries impacted his 2022-23, which is bad news for opponents. 

The Spartans have been a strong defensive team all season, but they are in store for one of their toughest battles of the season. Kansas State has an explosive offense and one player in particular should strike fear into every opposing team: Markquis Nowell. The 5'8" senior has been a joy to watch all season and had one of the most unstoppable March Madness performances I can remember in recent history against Kentucky. He finished with 27 points and nine assists, and some of the difficult shots he made were quite literally jaw-dropping. Michigan State is going to need a defined strategy to slow him down, or there's no doubt that Nowell will once again be firing away. However, he isn't the only Wildcat that can hurt you defensively. Keyontae Johnson, the former Florida transfer, finished as the team's leading scorer on the regular season and will be a matchup problem. Johnson might not hit the step-back threes that Nowell can, but he's potent in isolation and an insane athlete. Malik Hall is likely to be matched up against him, which should provide plenty of entertainment.

The 1-2 punch of Johnson and Nowell has been the fuel for K-State's success all season, but I'm actually picking Michigan State to spring the upset. The Spartans don't have the firepower, but I generally trust good defensive teams more than offensive ones. They put on a clinic defensively against Marquette, slowing down Big East Player of the Year Tyler Kolek, and should be able to be able to enter this one still riding that wave of momentum. Plus, there's no way their three-point shooting woes from that second round game are as bad here, so they will be able to top the Wildcats in Madison Square Garden.

Michigan State by six

9 Florida Atlantic Owls vs. 4 Tennessee Volunteers

An improbable Sweet 16 matchup rounds out the action in Madison Square Garden on Thursday night. Florida Atlantic, playing in their first Sweet 16 in program history, hopes to keep the momentum going against fourth-seeded Tennessee. The Volunteers and Rick Barnes have become synonymous with March struggles in recent years, but they're looking to change the narrative with a trip to the Elite Eight.

Florida Atlantic may not have faced an SEC slate like the Vols, but they've proven to be a quality basketball team on both ends. Offensively, they feature an abundance of productive guards, with big man Vladislav Goldin patrolling the middle as their go-to guy in the post. Johnell Davis and Alijah Martin have been the main scorers over the course of the season and can both shoot, but the Owls are a much deeper team than the average fan may realize. They're also an athletic team; they won't be shell-shocked by the types of players Tennessee features, and should be able to compete with them for the full 40 minutes. Florida Atlantic also features a strong defense, one that was able to contain Kendric Davis in the first round and pull off an upset. They're feisty on the perimeter, and Goldin has proven to be a capable rim-protector that should impact shots on the interior.

No matter what happens on Thursday, Tennessee deserves plenty of credit for even getting to this stage. The program entered the Tournament as a popular upset pick and are without steady point guard Zakai Zeigler, but they've beaten Louisiana and Duke en route to a Sweet 16 berth. Zeigler is a major loss, but others have stepped up in his absence, namely forward Oliver Nkamhoua and Santiago Vescovi. Nkamhoua has been a complementary piece most of his UT career but dropped 27 in the win over Duke, while Vescovi is a crafty combo guard that can take over games with his shooting. They have a solid offense, but the defense has been key to their run so far in the Tournament, and they'll have their hands full with FAU's guards. They did a fine job containing the Blue Devils in their last game, and their defense in the paint has been extremely impressive. They never let Jordan Brown get comfortable in the Louisiana win, and were also able to hold Kyle Filipowski and Dariq Whitehead in check.

These teams both play similar styles and are both incredibly well-rounded. Both take care of the ball and have a solid collection of playmakers that can open things up offensively. It feels like a coin flip picking between the two, but I error on the Volunteers side. They've looked extremely impressive in the Big Dance up to this point, and despite the criticism Barnes receives, he's a master tactician. I'm picking them to move on to the Elite Eight, setting up an interesting contest with Michigan State.

Tennessee by four

West Region

8 Arkansas Razorbacks vs. 4 UConn Huskies

Despite earning an eight seed after an injury-riddled regular season, Arkansas and Eric Musselman are on the cusp of their third consecutive trip to the Elite Eight. Standing in their way is fourth-seeded UConn, who made easy work of both Iona and Saint Mary's to earn a spot in the Sweet 16 field. With two high-powered offenses and two energetic head coaches, there should be ample fireworks in Las Vegas Thursday night.

The youth on the Razorback roster is maturing at the right time, creating an awfully dangerous Arkansas team. Five-star prospect Nick Smith missed a big chunk of the season with injury but is now fully ready to go, while Anthony Black and Jordan Walsh have been key contributors all season long. Black is the player that really makes the 'Hogs go; he's an efficient scorer, underrated rebounder, and disruptive defender. Although 16 points over the first two games of the Tournament don't jump out at you, Black's winning plays have been a major reason why Arkansas is still alive. Junior guard Ricky Council, the veteran of the backcourt, has taken on most of the scoring load, as he has for most of the season. He dropped 21 points in the upset of the East Region's top seed, Kansas, but he has to learn to be more efficient if the Razorbacks are to keep on humming along.

The Huskies feature a larger lineup than the Razorbacks, one punctuated by junior Adama Sanogo. Sanogo is one of the most forceful bigs in the country, a relentless offensive force and rebounder. He's been tremendous all year, but has unleashed even more in the Tournament up to this point, with 28 and 24 point performances against Iona and Saint Mary's. He'll command attention from Arkansas down low, which should open up lanes for the UConn guards, namely Jordan Hawkins and Tristen Newton. Hawkins' growth as a shooter in 2022-23 has been huge for the Huskies, going from 35% and 33% from the field and the three-point, to 40% and 38%. Along with Newton, UConn should be able to keep up with the Razorback guards, but finding a way to get stops defensively will be their major focus.

The Razorback guards pose a stiff challenge to UConn, but it's unclear if they can counter Sanogo on the block. He's proven he can take over games, and Arkansas has struggled to defend against capable bigs. If Hawkins and Newton can open things up with a three or two, the Huskies move on to their first Elite Eight since Shabazz Napier and company.

UConn by nine

3 Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. 2 UCLA Bruins

There isn't a better matchup in the Sweet 16 than the West Region battle set to take place between Gonzaga and UCLA. These are two of the elite programs on the West Coast, and they have an interesting history together. UCLA's come-from-behind victory over Gonzaga and Adam Morrison in 2006 was one of the wildest March Madness moments of the millennium, but the Bulldogs got their vengeance in 2021 with Jalen Suggs' half-court buzzer beater to move on to the National Championship. 

UCLA will be confronted with a familiar foe in Drew Timme, who is hoping to finish off an illustrious career with a National Title. Timme has been superb all season, but has reached another level in the NCAA Tournament, dropping 21 against Grand Canyon and 28 against TCU. He's an incredibly skilled, consistent big who seems to play for these types of moments. However, it's the guards that will determine Gonzaga's future in this Tournament. Julian Strawther, Rasir Bolton, Nolan Hickman, and Malachi Smith have all had their moments in 2022-23, but the backcourt is wildly inconsistent. Strawther in particular is the X-factor; when he's on, there are few guards better than him nationally. Unfortunately, it's anybody's guess which version of Strawther is going to come out on a given night. When the guards aren't hitting their shots, the offense tends to get bogged down, and it feels like Timme is the only player that can create a spark. That can't happen against a team like UCLA, a team loaded with playmakers who are always ready to score. Gonzaga was given a March gift when Jaylen Clark was ruled out for the remainder of the season, costing the Bruins their top defender. That should allow the Bulldogs more freedom offensively, a real opportunity for Few and company.

The Bruins haven't been quite as explosive as Gonzaga over the course of the season, but they've made do their own way. UCLA has lost one single game since late January, the Pac-12 Tournament Championship Game against Arizona, and have rolled through the first two rounds. They may not put up as many points as Gonzaga, but the offense is still awfully potent, with Jaime Jaquez and a collection of guards leading the way. Jaquez is one of my favorite players in college basketball, a steady veteran who plays both ends and battles the entire 40 minutes. He's not going to step out and hit wild three-pointers, but hits tough shots and always finishes through contact. He'll have to be on his "A" game, although Tyger Campbell, Amari Bailey, and David Singleton have also proven they can punish opposing defenses. It's very much a perimeter-oriented offense; aside from freshman forward Adem Bona, the Bruins really lack much of an interior presence offensively. There's a concern here, too, as Bona was hurt in the Pac-12 Tournament, missed the UNC-Asheville game, and was fairly limited against Northwestern.

Mick Cronin never has an issue getting his teams to play up in March, but this team feels a bit different than some the team Gonzaga saw in the 2021 Final Four. They can still score with the best of them, but it has a bit more grittiness and toughness than past UCLA teams, similar to the Cincinnati teams Cronin coached for many years. They're going to give Gonzaga an absolute battle, and something tells me this one won't be lacking in physicality or tenacity. But, Gonzaga was my National Title pick entering this year's Tournament, and I think they can get the job done. The guards are going to have to show up, but Timme gives them a massive advantage, particularly with Bona banged up. Another tight one between these two and there isn't a Jalen Suggs to settle the score, but I'm still picking the 'Zags to move on.

Gonzaga by three

2023 March Madness Bracket Analysis: Midwest Region

Marcus Sasser, Houston

The Top Seed: Houston Cougars

Since taking over at Houston, Kelvin Sampson has built an absolute machine. The Cougars have won 27 or more games every season since 2017-2018, with the exception of the COVID-shortened '19-'20 campaign. It hasn't been just beating up on weaker opponents in the American Athletic Conference, either. They have advanced every year since 2018 and played in their first Final Four in nearly four decades back in 2021. Sampson has another dangerous team on his hands this season, headlined by Marcus Sasser and a potent backcourt. Sasser isn't 100 percent entering the NCAA Tournament; he missed the AAC Championship Game and the Cougars have kept his health status under wraps, but there's an assumption that he will return at some point in the near future. If he does miss time, Houston will lean heavily on Jamal Shead and Tramon Mark, who have both proven they can hand the scoring load when needed. However, this is a program that isn't going out every night expecting to score 90 points. It's a team defined by their defense, a suffocating, swirling mess that slows games to a slog. It's proven to be quite effective for Sampson and company, even if it's not pretty. Don't be shocked if it sets the tone for another deep run, as the Cougars match up well with nearly everyone in the region and are such a tough out, especially on short rest.

The Cinderella Possibility: Drake Bulldogs

After a long absence from the Big Dance, Drake is playing in their second in three years, and has a team that could create some chaos. Although they didn't end up winning the Missouri Valley regular season title, the Bulldogs still won 27 games and are led by one of the country's most underrated stars, Tucker DeVries. The son of head coach Darian DeVries, Tucker averages 19 PPG and can really shoot it, posting a 39 point percentage from three. He's not the only Drake guard that can score in a hurry, as they feature three other weapons in the backcourt rotation, namely Garrett Sturtz and Roman Penn. Teams may be able to bully them inside on occasion, but this is a tough basketball team that plays much larger than they look. Even though they play a team I like a lot in the first round, Miami, don't be surprised if the Bulldogs win at least one game, and they could certainly win more depending on how the Indiana/Kent State game shakes out.

The Cinderella Possibility: Pittsburgh Panthers

Power-conference teams aren't generally considered "Cinderellas" but as a "First Four" participant, Pittsburgh fits the mold. Not much was expected from the Panthers heading into the season; they hadn't played in an NCAA Tournament since 2016 and head coach Jeff Capel was firmly on the hot seat. Instead, Pitt has been a pleasant surprise, winning 23 games and earning a spot in the field of 68. Even as an 11-seed, history is in their favor. A "First Four" team has advanced to the second round every single year since its inception in 2011, except for one time, 2019. Even in that year, one came awfully close, as Belmont lost an absolute heartbreaker to Maryland. I trust this Pittsburgh team much more than either of the other two "First Four" teams, Arizona State and Nevada, and they play an Iowa State team that has had a brutal past month-and-half. Don't overlook their chances of victory, which could set them up for a winnable game in the second round against Xavier.

Welcome to the Dance!: Kennesaw State Owls

Just three years ago, Kennesaw State was coming off a 1-28 season and had fired head coach Al Skinner. Fast forward to this March, and the program is playing in their first ever NCAA Tournament. It's one of the most incredible turnarounds in recent college basketball history, and head man Amir Abdur-Rahim may end up being poached by a power program in short order. The Owls, who won the A-Sun, will face quite the first round test with third-seeded Xavier, but just to get to this point has to feel incredible, and deserves recognition.

The Storyline Team: Texas Longhorns

It's been a tumultuous season in Austin off-the-court, due to the situation surrounding former head coach Chris Beard. Beard was arrested December 12 on a charge of assault/strangulation and after a leave of absence, Texas made the decision to move on from him three weeks later. The Longhorns could have quit after the firing of Beard, but they instead responded to the adversity under interim Rodney Terry. They put together a strong regular season and played in the Big 12 Tournament Championship, coming up just short against Kansas. It was enough to earn them a second seed and even better, a top seed in arguably the weakest region on the bracket. That's not to disrespect the other top seeds, but Houston is the weakest No. 1 seed in my opinion, and Xavier the weakest three. It sets up a superb opportunity for a team with loads of talent that has serious National Title potential. The backcourt of Marcus Carr and Tyrese Hunter may be the nation's best and up front, Christian Bishop and Dylan Disu can overwhelm opponents. Add to that the fact that the team has seemingly played with a different energy under Terry, I think this team has a great chance to come out of the region.

Picking the Midwest

First Round

1 Houston over 16 Northern Kentucky -- Even if he is able to go, Houston may choose to rest Marcus Sasser for this one, as they shouldn't have too much troubles with the Norse.

8 Iowa over 9 Auburn -- Is this the year Fran McCaffery finally earns himself a spot in the Sweet 16? First, the Hawkeyes will have to get past a feisty Auburn team, but their edge offensively should help them prevail.

12 Drake over 5 Miami (FL) -- The 'Canes were the most consistently strong team in the ACC this season, but I like the upset chances. The combination of Darian DeVries and his son, Tucker, will be an oft-discussed storyline if they can come out on top.

4 Indiana over 13 Kent State -- You never know what version of Indiana you're getting on a daily basis and the MAC Champion Golden Flashes are no slouches. Trayce Jackson-Davis and Jalen Hood-Schifino are enough to put the Hoosiers over the edge.

11 Pittsburgh over 6 Iowa State -- The loss of Caleb Grill late in the year has really hurt Iowa State's NCAA Tournament hopes. Although Gabe Kalscheur can give them a fighting chance, I'm picking the upset.

3 Xavier over 14 Kennesaw State -- A short-lived first Division I NCAA Tournament appearance for Kennesaw State, as they have nobody that can slow down Xavier's capable guards.

10 Penn State over 7 Texas A&M -- The Aggies receiving a seven seed was a real shocker, until their likely second round opponent was unveiled moments later (Texas). The Selection Committee may have wanted an in-state battle, but PSU spoils it in their first appearance in the Big Dance in over a decade.

2 Texas over 15 Colgate -- Few teams play as up-tempo as Patriot League Champion Colgate and they gave Wisconsin real issues last season, but this Longhorn team is at a different level.

Second Round

1 Houston over 8 Iowa -- A real battle of opposing styles. Houston's going to want to slow the game down to a halt, while the Hawkeyes look to create offensive fireworks. I trust Houston more, especially in March.

4 Indiana over 12 Drake -- Should be a fun Midwestern duel between one of the sport's biggest brands and the upstart Drake Bulldogs. Drake is a bit undersized, so I'm not sure how they'll be able to slow down Jackson-Davis inside.

11 Pittsburgh over 3 Xavier -- Am I leaning too far into the "First Four" theory? Maybe, but I like this Pitt team a lot, and the Musketeers are going to miss Zach Freemantle. 

2 Texas over 10 Penn State -- Jalen Pickett could be a problem for the Longhorns, but I'm not sure he'll be able to counter the overwhelming force of Marcus Carr and Tyrese Hunter for an entire 40 minutes.

Sweet 16

1 Houston over 4 Indiana -- I do believe Indiana can go on a run if they're in the right state of mind, but the Cougars are still the smarter pick to move on to the Elite Eight. Sasser should be healthier at this point, and they have an obvious advantage in the backcourt with no Xavier Johnson.

2 Texas over 11 Pittsburgh -- Do the Panthers have the ingredients to make their first Elite Eight since 2009? I like this team, but that's a lot to ask for a program playing in their first NCAA Tournament since 2016.

Elite Eight

2 Texas over 1 Houston -- A Lone Star battle that will send the winner to Houston for the Final Four. The Cougars are such a tough out, but I love the balance Texas can bring and they should be able to create against this stifling defense.

Midwest Region Champion: 2 Texas Longhorns

As I said, this is the weakest region on the bracket for me, at least in terms of the low seeds. Houston isn't 100 percent, Texas has had a weird year, Xavier hasn't sold me, and Indiana is frighteningly streaky. Without an overwhelming favorite, I'm going with the 'Horns, who check a lot of boxes and would be a great story.

2023 March Madness Bracket Analysis: East Region

Kam Jones, Marquette

The Top Seed: Purdue Boilermakers

It's been a banner year in West Lafayette, with the Boilermakers taking home just about every accolade they could hope for. They ran through a tough non-conference slate, held the Big Ten lead from start to finish, and then won the Big Ten Tournament. Now perched as a No. 1 seed, Purdue is hoping this is the one to finally get over the hump and deliver Matt Painter his first Final Four. Having the likely National Player of the Year, Zach Edey, is an awfully good place to start. The junior has been unstoppable since the opening tip, finishing with averages of 22.3 PPG, 12.8 RPG, and 2.1 BPG. Yet, this is not the first time Purdue has had a dominant presence on the block entering an NCAA Tournament. It's always been the guard play that has determined their March success, and that seems like it will be the case once again. Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer have been a tremendous pairing, but how will the freshmen handle the bright lights of March Madness? What role can the veterans in the backcourt, namely Ethan Morton and Brandon Newman, play? The Selection Committee didn't exactly hand the Boilermakers any favors, as they'll face a really strong 8-9 seed in the second round, and could meet Duke or Tennessee in the Sweet 16. That's added even more pressure to a program that could be entering their most important March in recent memory.

The Cinderella Possibility: Oral Roberts Golden Eagles

Oral Roberts is a program not unfamiliar with pulling off improbable upsets. Their stunner over second-seeded Ohio State in 2021 was one of the biggest upsets of the millennium to this point, and they built on it by winning a game after, becoming just the second 15-seed to make a Sweet 16 trip at the time (only to be shown up a year later by Saint Peter's). They're back once again this March Madness, and could be even more dangerous than that 2021 team. Volume scorer Max Abmas is back to once again lead the show, but his supporting cast has been taken up a notch. 7'4" giant Connor Vanover is a former Arkansas transfer who is a real pain for opposing offenses and defenses alike, and capable junior Isaac McBride is a superb complement. The Golden Eagles went undefeated in conference play in the regular season then rolled to a conference tournament title, but they have loftier goals in mind. Things don't get a lot bigger than beating one of the sport's most recognizable brands, Duke, in the first round. A win there and this team has legitimate Sweet 16 potential, as I like the way they match up with either Tennessee or Louisiana.

Don't Touch This High Seed: Tennessee Volunteers

Rick Barnes is an accomplished program-builder and terrific basketball mind who has done great job with two major programs, Texas and Tennessee. Nobody should disregard his coaching chops, or the work he's done in Knoxville. But, is there a worse big-name coach when it comes to the NCAA Tournament? In a sport where there are few constants, Barnes' teams getting knocked out early has been a regular sight. Since leading Texas to the Elite Eight in 2008, Barnes has advanced to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament just once, in 2019. At Tennessee, Barnes has lost to double-digit seeds on three occasions, including a baffling defeat at the hands of Michigan a season ago. Every tournament is an opportunity to shed that label of March loser, but I'm not completely sure this is the team to do it. The Volunteers have trailed off down the stretch after a promising start and now will be without arguably their top player, Zakai Zeigler, who tore his ACL. To add to that, the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns are a tough first round matchup, the Sun Belt Champion who has lost just three games in the year 2023.

Don't Forget About: Kentucky Wildcats

I have a complicated relationship with the Kentucky Wildcats. On one hand, the program is way too good to go much longer without a National Title and although he has a tendency to rub people the wrong way, I still believe John Calipari is the one to do it. On the other, the Wildcats have burned me on numerous occasions over the last several years including last year, when I picked them to win it all and they were shocked by Saint Peter's. The thing is, the team has been playing impressive basketball over the last few weeks, and this is a program that always seems to play their best in March when expectations are at their lowest. This 2022-2023 edition has a lot to like, too. Oscar Tshiebwe wasn't quite as dominant this winter as the last, but remains a load to handle in the post. He's supported by an abundance of guards with a nice blend of talent. There's the youngsters with unlimited potential, like Cason Wallace, and the savvy veterans who have plenty of college basketball under their belt, such as Antonio Reeves and Sahvir Wheeler. That's not to say that I imagine a Final Four run from Calipari and the 'Cats, but I like their chances to beat Providence in the first round, and they have a favorable matchup with Kansas State in the second, assuming K-State can fend off Montana State. In a region that feels pretty wide open, you never know if this is the team that finally gets Calipari his second National Title. 

The Storyline Team: Marquette Golden Eagles

Going back to the days of Al McGuire, Marquette has been a regular fixture in the NCAA Tournament. With the exception of a rough stretch from the early 1980s to early 90s, the Golden Eagles have had a home in the NCAA Tournament. Yet, it's been a long time since a Marquette team entered March with this high of expectations. In fact, their two seed is the best seed the program has ever achieved, even better than the team that played in the Final Four under Tom Crean in 2003. It adds a feeling of pressure for the Golden Eagles, but also opens up an opportunity. Despite their success, Marquette hasn't made a Final Four since that special 2003 season. They haven't even won an NCAA Tournament game since 2013, when they went to the Elite Eight under Buzz Williams. They're led by a coach, Shaka Smart, who broke on to the college basketball scene with a legendary Final Four run at VCU in 2011, but who has gone 2-8 since. On paper, the prognosis for a deep run from the Golden Eagles doesn't seem high, but this is not your typical Marquette team. Running the show is the Big East Player of the Year, Tyler Kolek, a crafty, fluid playmaker who is one of my favorites in this Tournament. He's flanked by an abundance of quality guards, namely top scorer Kam Jones, and a two-headed monster in the frontcourt in Olivier-Maxence Prosper and Oso Ighodaro. This team isn't as flashy as other top seeds in the field, but I absolutely love the way they play basketball. It's not the frantic, frenetic Smart-coached VCU teams that you see on the court. This is a controlled, balanced basketball team who has a nice setup at the bottom of the region. 

Picking the East

First Round

1 Purdue over 16 Farleigh Dickinson (First Four winner) --  A great opportunity for a tune-up game for Purdue, who will be in store for a slugfest in the second round.

8 Memphis over 9 Florida Atlantic -- Dusty May's Florida Atlantic squad won't be intimidated at all by the reigning American Athletic Tournament Champion Memphis Tigers. But, the reality is they don't have anyone who can toe-to-toe with superstar Kendric Davis.

5 Duke over 12 Oral Roberts -- This may be the juiciest matchup of the first round, pitting the mighty Duke Blue Devils against the cream of the crop in the mid-majors, Oral Roberts. Max Abmas isn't your typical mid-major guard, but I still think Duke is just a bit too much for the Golden Eagles.

13 Louisiana over 4 Tennessee -- I bought into the Tennessee hype last March, and they lost a baffling game to Michigan in the second round. Even if they were fully healthy, I'm not touching the Volunteers in 2023.

6 Kentucky over 11 Providence -- Should be a fun battle between Bryce Hopkins and Kentucky, as the smooth-scoring forward began his career in Lexington. Providence is always a tough out, but I'm rolling with the Wildcats.

3 Kansas State over 14 Montana State -- Jerome Tang and Kansas State have been one of the best stories in college basketball this winter, and their high-flying combo of Markquis Nowell and Keyontae Johnson is too much for the Big Sky Champions. 

7 Michigan State over 10 USC -- Tom Izzo and the Spartans are known for their March prowess, but don't overlook this Trojan team. Senior Drew Peterson can really fill it, and he's a matchup nightmare as a 6'9" ball-handler.

2 Marquette over 15 Vermont -- Every year, Vermont feels like a popular dark horse pick, but the wins just haven't shown up. This team isn't getting the same amount of hype, but the result will be the same.

Second Round

1 Purdue over 8 Memphis -- This is starting to become a trendy upset pick, but let's give Purdue some credit. They earned that No. 1 seed for a reason and despite taking a slight step back in the second half of the regular season, they secured a Big Ten Tournament Title. I think they'll advance, although they could have a tough time with the Tiger guards.

5 Duke over 13 Louisiana -- The Ragin' Cajuns are a tougher opponent in the second round than most people realize. Former high-profile recruit Jordan Brown has developed into a force underneath, but the Cajuns don't have enough elsewhere to overcome the Blue Devils.

6 Kentucky over 3 Kansas State -- Kansas State got the better of Kentucky the last time they squared off back in the 2018 NCAA Tournament, but I see a revenge opportunity for Calipari and UK. K-State simply has no answer for Tshiebwe underneath, and Kentucky should be able to contain Nowell the other way.

2 Marquette over 7 Michigan State -- Should be a fun guard game between these two, but I think it comes down to which team outplays the other in the paint. A fully healthy Malik Hall might be a game-changer, but I prefer what the Golden Eagles can throw at you.

Sweet 16

5 Duke over 1 Purdue -- I fear I may be buying too much into the Duke hype, a team that seemed destined for a first-round exit before a hot few weeks, but based on pure talent, there isn't a better team in this region than the Blue Devils. Obviously the NCAA Tournament is more than a talent contest, but I like the way Duke matches up with the Boilermakers.

2 Marquette over 6 Kentucky -- Just the second meeting between these two since Dwyane Wade went off for a triple-double in the 2003 Elite Eight. Two evenly matched teams, but I trust Marquette more. They've been the more consistent team on the year, and should be favored on a neutral court.

Elite Eight

2 Marquette over 5 Duke -- If this matchup does end up happening, it feels like a coin-flip to me. Two teams loaded with talent who play a different brand of basketball, but play it well. I'm rolling with Shaka and the Golden Eagles; Kolek and Kam Jones give them the edge.

East Region Champion: 2 Marquette Golden Eagles

At some point, Marquette is going to return to the Final Four and at some point, Shaka Smart is going to secure another deep postseason run. The East Region feels like it could descend into chaos, but if I had to put money on any team, it has to be the Golden Eagles. They've been superb all season and I love the way they play. Two decades after D-Wade stole the show, I like the program to return to be one of the last four teams standing.

2023 March Madness Bracket Analysis: South Region

Brandon Miller, Alabama

The Top Seed: Alabama Crimson Tide

Heading into conference tournament week, Alabama was in prime position to not just earn a No. 1 seed, but to earn the top overall seed in the 2023 NCAA Tournament. The Tide took care of business and won the SEC Tournament, securing top billing and earning them a cushy first round game in Birmingham, Alabama. It hasn't always been smooth sailing on the season for Nate Oats and company, which have dealt with serious off-the-court drama, but in a pure basketball sense, this team is going to be a tough out. They have arguably the best player in the country in Brandon Miller and a host of playmakers, including Jahvon Quinerly, Mark Sears, and Jaden Bradley. What I really like about this team is how they can play on both ends so effectively. Their length and athleticism makes it tough to slow them offensively, and they have a bunch of different players that can defend multiple positions and speed up opposing offenses. They also got a favorable role, in my opinion. Maryland-West Virginia won't be a breeze in the second round, but there are tougher 8-9 seeds, and I think the 4-5 in this region, Virginia and San Diego State, may be the two weakest on the bracket. Things set up nicely for a deep run for Oats team; as boring as it is, they're my pick to represent the South Region in the Final Four.

The Cinderella Possibility: Furman Paladins

Charleston is likely to receive outsized attention as the Cindrella frontrunner out of the South, which makes sense. There aren't many mid-majors who finish a season 31-3 like Charleston, no matter what the non-conference schedule looked like. However, my Cinderella pick in this region is none other than the Furman Paladins, the Southern Conference Champion that will be playing in their first NCAA Tournament since 1980. The Paladins have an explosive offense, one spearheaded by the guard trio of Mike Bothwell, J.P Pegues, and Marcus Foster. They averaged over 82 points per game on the year and essentially everybody in the rotation can step out and hit a three ball. It's a roster that's well-shaped to overcome fourth-seed Virginia and their "pack line" defense. The Cavaliers have a way of cutting off angles and forcing difficult shots, but have occasionally struggled against capable three-point shooting teams. Even if UVA is able to slow down this Furman attack, can the Cavaliers get enough going the other way? Virginia has surpassed the 70-point threshold just twice since late January. I like the Paladins to spring a first round upset, and I think they're good enough to beat the winner of San Diego State/Charleston in the second round, which could set up a "David vs. Goliath" battle with Alabama in the Sweet 16.

Don't Forget About: Creighton Bluejays

The hype was palpable in Omaha, Nebraska, this winter as Creighton geared up for another season. The Bluejays returned nearly every important piece from a team that gave eventual National Champion Kansas all they could handle in the second round of the 2022 NCAA Tournament, and also added talented South Dakota State transfer Baylor Scheierman. Did this team have the tools to earn the program's first-ever Final Four berth? Instead, the start of 2022-23 was disastrous for the Bluejays, as they slogged through a six-game skid to end their non-conference slate, including a real stinker to in-state rival Nebraska. Greg McDermott's team could have folded and turned in a disappointing campaign, but Creighton responded. They finished 21-12 overall and went 14-6 in one of the toughest conferences in America, enough to earn them a six seed. It wasn't the dream season many Creighton fans hoped it would be, but this team showed they could battle through adversity and respond. Looking ahead to their NCAA Tournament hopes, I'm irrationally high on McDermott's squad. I've always been a fan of the Nembhard brothers and the younger one, Ryan, has been the heart-and-soul of this team all season. Alongside him, the Bluejays boast a dangerous scorer in Scheierman, an imposing old-school big in Ryan Kalkbrenner, and capable complementary pieces in Arthur Kaluma and Trey Alexander. Don't be surprised if this team starts playing up to their potential at the right time; they're way more talented than your average six seed.

Don't Touch This High Seed: Baylor Bears

Scott Drew has built one of college basketball's most consistent programs in Waco, and the Bears once again enter the NCAA Tournament with a high seed. Even though the Bears suffered ten losses, wins over Gonzaga and UCLA in the non-conference and the strength of the Big 12 helped them end up on the three line. Even so, this may be the top three seed I feel the least confident in, for several reasons. First off, they're not playing their best basketball hitting March Madness; they've lost four of six and looked uninspired in consecutive losses to Iowa State, one in the regular season and one in the Big 12 Tournament. Granted, all six of those games were awfully tough ones, but you'd like to see a team finish stronger than they did. Second, it feels like there's a real lack of scoring punch beyond dynamic freshman Keyonte George. Adam Flagler and L.J. Cryer are two veteran lead guards who have played in a lot of big games, but neither are the type of players that can take over games. Lastly, I have real concerns about the depth and overall ability of the frontcourt. Flo Thamba and Jonathon Tchamwa Tchatchoua are two experienced options and Jalen Bridges can play bigger than 6'7", but this Baylor team simply is not as strong or as deep up front as previous editions. Tchamwa Tchatchou is still not even 100 percent, still working his way back from a catastrophic knee injury last season. All of this makes me wary of Drew and Baylor, who face Big West Champion UC Santa Barbara in the first round.

The Storyline Team: Arizona Wildcats

College basketball fans and media who love the storylines of March Madness could argue Alabama going deep will create the most intrigue in this region, but I believe the team under the most pressure in the South is the Arizona Wildcats. One of the sport's blue bloods, the Wildcats have been a consistent fixture in March for a long time now and have had plenty of postseason success. Yet, they haven't won a National Title since 1997 under Lute Olson, and haven't made a Final Four since 2001. Tommy Lloyd had his team as a regular in the Top 10 of the national rankings most of the year, but it feels like this team is still a bit overlooked entering the NCAA Tournament. They've proven their worth by beating UCLA in the Pac-12 Championship Game, but haven't received as much national attention as other top seeds. It's the guard play that will likely determine how far this Arizona team goes. Kerr Kriisa and Courtney Ramey can be a dominant 1-2 punch when they're on, but they can shoot you out of any game, too. Up front, junior forward Azuolas Tubelis is probably the nation's most underrated player. The Lithuanian averaged 19.8 PPG, 9.3 RPG, and shot over 57% from the field, but is still looking to build his March resume after a disappointing showing in 2022.

Picking the South

First Round

1 Alabama over 16 Texas A&M - Corpus Christi (First Four winner) -- No 16 seed shenanigans this year, as the Crimson Tide should roll past the Islanders, and Brandon Miller and company will be preserving their energy in the second half.

8 Maryland over 9 West Virginia -- This matchup should be a thriller between two capable teams that will kick off the fun on Thursday. Both can be awfully inconsistent, but I'm more trusting of Maryland and explosive guard Jahmir Young.

5 San Diego State over 12 Charleston -- The Cougars are going to get plenty of love as a mid-major who won 30-plus games, but this is a quality San Diego State team. They're incredibly deep, experienced, and well-coached, who shouldn't have any trouble getting up for this one.

13 Furman over 4 Virginia -- I have the utmost respect for Virginia and the program Tony Bennett has built in Charlottesville. Yet, I detest the way this Cavaliers team has played over the last two months, and Furman feels awfully dangerous.

6 Creighton over 11 NC State -- Although NC State went 23-10 overall, a fine record for an NCAA Tournament participant, it was still fairly surprising they gained entry into the field of 68. Their resume is merely okay, and the Wolfpack are fresh off a 26-point defeat at the hands of Clemson. Needless to say, I like Creighton's chances to move on.

3 Baylor over 14 UC-Santa Barbara -- The Gauchos are playing in their second NCAA Tournament in three years, but hoping for a better ending this time after losing in a heartbreaker to Creighton in 2021. Unfortunately, I don't think they have the guns to outlast Baylor, and their skilled backcourt.

7 Missouri over 10 Utah State -- This feels like a coin flip to me between Missouri, one of the nation's biggest surprises in 2022-2023, and one of four Mountain West teams to gain entry into the field of 68, Utah State. The thing is, Utah State doesn't have a Kobe Brown, who helps put Mizzou over the top in this one.

2 Arizona over 15 Princeton -- Ivy League teams are always dangerous this time of year, but this Princeton team isn't your typical Ivy League Champ. They may be able to give Arizona a battle in the first half, but it's hard to imagine them competing with the 'Cats over 40 minutes.

Second Round

1 Alabama over 8 Maryland -- The Terrapins are a feisty eight seed, one that no No. 1 seed wants to play. Yet, I don't imagine them having any answer for Miller, and I think the Tide have an advantage down low.

5 San Diego State over 13 Furman -- Want a crazy stat? Despite being widely regarded as one of the nation's top mid-majors, the Mountain West has only sent four teams to the Sweet 16 in their history, and never had a team make an Elite Eight. The Aztecs seem like a good bet to help the conference overcome some of their March demons, as they've been responsible for two of those trips.

6 Creighton over 3 Baylor -- As I mentioned, I am very concerned about Baylor's lack of depth in the frontcourt. That's not to discredit Flo Thamba or Jonathon Tchamwa Tchatchoua, but a reality around how their roster is built. They are going to have a real tough time with Creighton, who offers Ryan Kalkbrenner and Arthur Kaluma up front.

2 Arizona over 7 Missouri -- Dennis Gates and Missouri have been a great story regardless of how their March goes, but I'm not sure they have the firepower to keep up with all the pieces Arizona can throw at you, including Kriisa, Ramey, and Tubelis.

Sweet 16

1 Alabama over 5 San Diego State -- San Diego State is a well-built, balanced team that isn't necessarily flashy, but does a lot of things well. Unfortunately, I don't think they're good enough to compete with Alabama over 40 minutes, continuing the MW's Elite Eight dry streak.

6 Creighton over 2 Arizona -- Am I too high on Creighton? Maybe, but I love the roster composition of this team, and I think they match up well with Arizona. Nembhard and Scheierman are better than Kriisa and Ramey in my opinion, and Kalkbrenner outplays Oumar Ballo in a low-post battle.

Elite Eight

1 Alabama over 6 Creighton -- This would be a superb Elite Eight matchup between two programs that have regularly been good, but rarely Final Four good. Should be a back-and-forth duel, but I'm more confident in where Alabama is at entering the NCAA Tournament.

South Region Champion: 1 Alabama Crimson Tide

Boring to pick the top overall seed to survive their region? Perhaps, but a top overall seed is no guarantee, as just three have won a National Title since the Selection Committee started awarding them in 2004. Even with all the drama that has swirled around this team, Nate Oats has kept them laser-focused on the ultimate goal, and they just have so many different ways to hurt you. In a region with somewhat underwhelming 2, 3, and 4 seeds, they are without question the best bet.

Big Ten Basketball: Predicting How Far Each Team Will Go in the 2023 NCAA Tournament

Jalen Hood-Schifino, Indiana

Year-in, year-out, the Big Ten is considered one of the premier conferences in college basketball but there remains one gigantic elephant in the room: the lack of National Titles. No Big Ten team has won a National Championship since Mateen Cleaves and Michigan State in 2000 and no, Maryland's 2002 National Title doesn't count. As we gear up for another NCAA Tournament with a host of Big Ten teams set to compete, the quest for that elusive championship takes center stage. As many as nine teams could be in the field, but do any of them have a shot at being the last team standing in April?

Safely In

Purdue Boilermakers: The Boilermakers have been perched atop the Big Ten standings essentially the entire season and spent several weeks ranked No. 1 overall. There's a lot to like about this team, namely Zach Edey and a host of capable complementary pieces, but the last several weeks have raised some real concerns around Matt Painter's team. The two freshman guards in the backcourt is one thing I've always been wary about; Braden Smith and Foster Loyer have exceeded expectations, but the NCAA Tournament is a whole different beast. They've struggled with consistency, not surprising considering their youth, and it wouldn't be shocking if they get exposed by a team with superior guard play. There's also the fact that Painter's teams have traditionally struggled in March. I've always thought this criticism was slightly overblown and a bit unfair, but it is something to consider when evaluating their NCAA Tournament hopes. Nobody can question Painter's ability to build a roster, but it feels like he's been out-coached in pivotal March moments throughout his tenure in West Lafayette. It makes me hesitant to pick Purdue to go deep, even if I do like a lot of pieces on this roster. I don't envision an epic collapse keeping them away from the second weekend, but I don't think a long stay is in the cards either.

Prediction: Sweet 16

Indiana Hoosiers: It's been a wild season in Bloomington. The Hoosiers started off 1-4 in conference play and looked destined for a massive disappointment, before becoming one of the league's hottest teams since a mid-January defeat on the road to Penn State. They not only racked up victories, they beat arch-rival Purdue twice in a season for the first time since 2013. As we look ahead towards the NCAA Tournament, this feels like it could be the league's ultimate wild card. They have legitimate Final Four potential when they're playing well, or they could be in store for a first round exit. Trayce Jackson-Davis remains one of the best anywhere in the country, but the supporting cast can be awfully hit or miss. It's also disappointing to hear veteran guard Xavier Johnson won't be able to return this season, a player who could have given this team the spark they need for an extended run. For a team that feels boom-or-bust, I'm going to hedge my bets and project a Sweet 16 finish.

Prediction: Sweet 16

Northwestern Wildcats: No matter what happens the rest of the way, Northwestern should be incredibly proud of their accomplishments this winter. They entered the year looking like a bottom dweller in the league, and head coach Chris Collins was on a flaming hot seat. Instead, they've been one of the most consistent teams in the conference and could be in store for an exciting March. I actually believe this team is still a tad underrated nationally; they feature incredibly strong guard play that could fuel postseason success. Boo Buie and Chase Audige are two veterans who can overwhelm opponents, and the Wildcats have been able to survive despite a thin frontcourt. Interestingly enough, this will be just the second NCAA Tournament ever for the program, and probably their best chance at a deep run they've ever had. Last time they were part of the field of 68, the Wildcats won a wacky one over Vanderbilt before being dispatched by No. 1 seed Gonzaga. This team should have an easier path to the second weekend, but there are no easy wins in this tournament. 

Prediction: Second Round

Michigan State Spartans: Although they haven't hoisted a National Title in over two decades, few programs exceed expectations in March quite like Michigan State. Tom Izzo's teams always turn it up a notch during the most important part of the season, and typically go a round or two farther than most would expect. This year could be no different, as the Spartans have finished the season winning five of their last seven and seem to be gaining momentum entering the NCAA Tournament. They have two impressive lead guards in Tyson Walker and A.J. Hoggard that can carry a team, but the other pieces have been inconsistent. Joey Hauser has turned it up a notch this season, but Malik Hall has got to be the X-factor. He missed a bunch of time early on in the year but seems to be closing in on 100 percent; if he can finish his senior season strong, this MSU team is extremely dangerous. Even so, I'm not sure they have the offensive firepower to make a deep run this year, even if they will be a tough out for any team they play.

Prediction: Second Round

Iowa Hawkeyes: Give Iowa and Fran McCaffery credit. This team could have folded after an 0-3 start to Big Ten play and a shocking loss at home to Eastern Illinois. Instead, they finished 11-9 in the conference and could be the highest-seeded Big Ten team outside of the state of Indiana. Kris Murray has been the main fuel of the offense, but it's the growth of senior big Filip Rebraca that's been most surprising to me. The former North Dakota transfer has become a true offensive threat, averaging 14 PPG and shooting 58% from the field. Add in sharpshooting Peyton Sandfort and explosive guard Tony Perkins, and the Hawkeyes are awfully dangerous. Yet, it feels like the same issues that have persisted throughout the McCaffery era remain. As good as the offense is, the defense is atrocious, and Iowa has occasionally struggled to close out games. I think they should be good enough for a win or two, but this is another program with March demons to overcome. Last season felt like it could be the year, and they were shocked by 12th-seeded Richmond. They may get an even tougher draw this year based on seeding, so it's hard to feel particularly confident about anything with this team heading into the postseason.

Prediction: Second Round

Illinois Fighting Illini: Speaking of teams who have gone through a wild ride in 2022-2023, it's been a fascinating season in Champaign. A team with preseason Big Ten Title hopes, the Illini started off slow and then watched highly touted freshman Skyy Clark leave the program. Instead of things completely falling apart, the Clark decision seemed to galvanize the roster, and the Illini are now safely in the NCAA Tournament field. However, 31 games into the season, it remains very difficult to get an accurate read on this team. Terrance Shannon Jr., Matthew Mayer and Coleman Hawkins give the ample firepower, but it's anybody's guess what Illinois team is going to come out to play on a given night. I actually like this roster a lot more than others in the conference, but the streakiness makes it hard to make a decision on them one way or another. 

Prediction: First Round

Should Be In

Maryland Terrapins: Kevin Willard took over a program that had flamed out in the final years of Mark Turgeon and was hit hard by roster attrition over the offseason. Less than a year later, he has the Terrapins as near NCAA Tournament locks, and a team few are going to want to face in March. Offensively, Jahmir Young is the focal point, an explosive scorer who leads the team in nearly every major offensive category. Yet, three other players average double-digits and this is a much better defensive team than most realize, which has been key to their strong second half. They've proven they can go toe-to-toe with big-time programs and even beat them, as they shocked one of the ACC's best in Miami earlier on in the year and lost by three to Tennessee. They'll likely land somewhere in the 7-10 range, making them a real threat to pull off a huge second round upset.

Prediction: Second Round

Rutgers Scarlet Knights: While a big chunk of the Big Ten has used the home stretch of the regular season to pad their respective NCAA Tournament resumes, things have gone in the opposite direction for Rutgers. Once 5-2 in the league, the Scarlet Knights finished .500 in the conference and have lost six of eight, putting them squarely on the NCAA Tournament bubble. The offensive woes have been the primary culprit; Rutgers just doesn't have a guy that can handle the load on this end right now. Cam Spencer started off on fire but has cooled significantly, and leading scorer Cliff Omoruyi can only do so much. I still like the attitude of Steve Pikiell's program; they're going to fight and give whoever they face a true 40-minute test. But, things have gone so far south, picking this team to win an NCAA Tournament game feels unwise. That is, assuming they can even get there, which is certainly no guarantee as we stand today.

Prediction: First Round

Right On the Bubble

Wisconsin Badgers: It's a coin flip whether Wisconsin will be in the field of 68 as things stand a week before Selection Sunday. The Badgers are 17-13 overall and 9-11 in the conference; they own two quality wins in the non-conference over USC and Marquette, but what's their best win in the Big Ten? At home against Maryland? On the road against Iowa? Either way, I don't see some Cinderella run coming from this team. They simply don't have the offensive punch, even if Chucky Hepburn regains his rhythm late in the year.

Prediction: First Round

Michigan Wolverines: Michigan is a great example of just how strange life in the Big Ten can be. The Wolverines finished 11-9 in the conference, tied for second with a collection of future NCAA Tournament squads. Yet, due to bad losses in the non-conference and the lack of a true signature victory, Michigan is likely to be an NIT team. That is, unless Juwan Howard can engineer a magical run in the Big Ten Tournament. Never say never in this conference, but it looks like the first NCAA Tournament without Michigan since 2015. 

Prediction: No NCAA Tournament

Penn State Nittany Lions: Penn State's NCAA Tournament hopes hinge on their play in Chicago this upcoming week, but no matter what happens, Micah Shrewsberry's club deserves plenty of respect. The program has been an afterthought in the Big Ten for most of the last decade, but Shrewsberry has turned them into a team nobody wants to play. They'll battle from start to finish, and Jalen Pickett is among the most exciting players anywhere in college basketball when he's shooting the ball well. I have this team out of the NCAA Tournament field right now, but they could be an awfully tough out if they do make it in, potentially as a "First Four" participant.

Prediction: No NCAA Tournament