Thursday, September 28, 2017

College Football Picks 2017: Week Five

Luke Falk, Washington State
College Football Picks 2017: Week Five
Current Record: 21-11


(4-0) 2 Clemson Tigers vs. (4-0) 12 Virginia Tech Hokies

@ Lane Stadium (Blacksburg), 7 PM Saturday on ABC

Clemson was supposed to take a big step back as they moved on from Deshaun Watson this year, but that certainly has not been the case. The Tigers have started the year 4-0, with wins over Auburn and Louisville, and once more, look like the biggest threat to Alabama in the National Championship race. With that being said, the Coastal Division favorite, Virginia Tech, is a tough team to beat, particularly in Lane Stadium. The Hokies have jumped off to a fast start behind the arm of redshirt frosh Josh Jackson. Jackson, a fearless gunslinger with good mobility, has thrown for 1,127 yards and 11 touchdowns so far on the season, but has yet to face a defense with the playmakers Clemson possesses. The Tigers' secondary is still a work in progress right now, but there is no denying the front seven is one of the nation's best, and has shut down past star QB's such as Jarrett Stidham and Lamar Jackson. On the other side of the ball, Clemson is still figuring things out offensively, although there is no denying their vast potential. New quarterback Kelly Bryant has shown that he can absolutely shed defenses with his speed and elusiveness, but he needs more refinement as a passer. He will be aided by a deep stable of running backs, led by true freshman Travis Etienne, who is leading the team in rushing and averaging a mind-blowing 12.7 yards per carry. On the outside, Clemson also has their usual collection of playmakers ready to challenge Virginia Tech's defense, namely Deon Cain, Hunter Renfrow and Ray-Ray McCloud. The Hokies have long been known as a defense-first team, even if Justin Fuente has breathed new life into the offense. They are stout once more on the defensive side of the ball, although they haven't faced a team with the speed and big-play potential of Clemson, so it should be quite the test. With impressive wins against Auburn and Louisville already on the resume, the Tigers are hopeful a win here would be enough to jump Alabama for the nation's No. 1 spot. Virginia Tech should be able to give them quite a battle in front of the home folks, but it's reasonable to think Jackson and the rest of the offense could have a tough day against the Clemson D. The Tigers should be able to come out on top, but don't expect a blowout by any means.

The Pick: Clemson, 35 Virginia Tech, 27

(4-0) 5 USC Trojans vs. (4-0) Washington State Cougars
Martin Stadium (Pullman), 9:30 PM Friday on ESPN

The Pac-12 is known for it's late-night shootouts, and we could be in store for another one in this Friday night collision. Both USC and Washington State are blessed with fabulous quarterbacks and explosive offenses, and both enter this game undefeated. The Trojans have certainly been tested early on this season, barely surviving against Texas and getting pushed by Cal, but are still in good position to make a Playoff run. Sam Darnold entered the season as the Heisman frontrunner, and has played overall pretty solid, but does have seven interceptions (he had nine all of last year). That is certainly concerning for 'SC, and could become a factor in this one, because giving Washington State even more offensive possessions is quite dangerous. The Trojans did get a break of good news this week when they learned feature back Ronald Jones II would be back from a thigh contusion this week. Having Jones making plays out of the backfield makes the offense much more balanced and effective, particularly against a Cougars' defense that has never been known for it's rush defense prowess. Unfortunately, the Trojans will be without one of their top wide outs, Steven Mitchell Jr., so others will have to step up. For the Cougars, senior Luke Falk continues to put up videogame-like numbers. The smart, accurate signal-caller is a terrific fit in Mike Leach's Air Raid offense, and he does an amazing job cutting down on turnovers despite the amount of times he throws. Falk will be helped out by a number of dangerous weapons on the perimeter, namely Tavares Martin Jr. (390 receiving yards) and James Williams (266). But, USC does have one of the conference's stronger pass defenses, and they picked off Cal QB Ross Bowers four times in their road win there. If they can play the same against Falk and pressure the veteran, they'll be in pretty fine position. The Trojans also have to stop the run, even if Washington State doesn't run the ball a lot. 'SC gave up a lot of yards to both Texas and Cal, and they obviously struggled when that was the case. If they can contain the run and force the Cougars to rely exclusively on the pass it has to be viewed as a success. I would not be surprised to see 100-plus points scored in this one, with the way these offenses like to attack and the talent they have. USC is considered the favorite, but Washington State will give them quite the challenge. However, if Darnold can play under control and the Trojans can force some turnovers, they should be able to survive another close one.

The Pick: USC, 52 Washington State, 47

(3-1) 13 Auburn Tigers vs. (3-1) 24 Mississippi State Bulldogs
@ Jordan-Hare Stadium (Auburn), 5 PM Saturday on ESPN

Nobody can deny Alabama is the team to beat in the SEC West, but there is a question as to who their biggest threat is in the division. LSU's old passing problems continue to haunt them, Auburn's offense has not taken the steps they had hoped offensively, Arkansas has struggled, and Mississippi State just lost by four touchdowns to Georgia. The winner of this one could put themselves in position to at least be in the conservation in the SEC West, so the stakes could be high. The Tigers are still hoping their aerial attack can re-emerge after a tough start to 2017. Baylor transfer Jarrett Stidham has the arm talent, but he's been hurt by a bad offensive line and a receiver corps that lacks elite weapons. It will be interesting to see how that offensive line will be able to hold up against a strong Bulldogs' pass rush, which is led by Gerri Green and Jeffery Simmons. The good news is that the ground game should be able to help out, as Kerryon Johnson and Kamryn Pettway should be able to have plenty of success. For Mississippi State, their offense hopes to recover from a poor showing against UGA, behind the play of dual-threat QB Nick Fitzgerald. Fitzgerald is one of the best running quarterbacks in the entire nation, but he will have to square off against a quality Auburn rush defense. When paired with Aeris Williams, the Bulldogs should still be able to have some success. It will be interesting to see how Mississippi State passes the ball in this game, since they struggled so much against Georgia. Auburn's pass defense is pretty solid, but that doesn't mean that the Bulldogs can't find some success if they execute in the play-action. Both of these teams should come into this one with a chip on their shoulder, considering the losses they've suffered so far this year. They seem pretty evenly-matched, as both teams offer plenty of weapons to make their ground game chug along. The X-factor could be the passing game, which Auburn seems to have a slight advantage in, as long as Stidham can play to his potential. It should be a very competitive one, but the Tigers should be able to pull off this one in what could be a thriller.

The Pick: Auburn, 31 Mississippi State, 21

Other Picks
(#11) Ohio State, 45 Rutgers, 24
(#1) Alabama, 34 Ole Miss, 17
(#15) Oklahoma State, 49 Texas Tech, 44
(#10) Wisconsin, 30 Northwestern, 19
Duke, 28 (#14) Miami, 27

Sunday, September 24, 2017

Post-Week Four College Football Playoff Power Rankings

Kenny Hill, TCU
The Four 

1 Alabama Crimson Tide (4-0, 1-0 SEC)
After beating Kansas State in Week 3, Vanderbilt defensive linemen Nifae Lealao proclaimed "Alabama, you're next". Turns out it wasn't a great idea to call out the nation's top team, as the Commodores were absolutely pummeled by 'Bama, 59-0, and out-gained yardage-wise by nearly 600 yards. The victory gave Alabama their first conference victory of the 2017 campaign, and with LSU, Auburn and Mississippi State all not playing very well, there is no doubt they are the SEC West favorite. Up next for the Tide: a meeting with Ole Miss, who has been the only SEC team over the past few seasons to really give the Tide consistent problems. However, this is not the same Rebels team it was the past three seasons, and 'Bama seems to be playing with a chip on their shoulder, which should strike fear into every single team in the country.

2 Clemson Tigers 4-0 (1-0 ACC)
It was not very surprising to see Clemson have somewhat of a hangover this past week, after the huge victory they had on the road against Louisville. The Tigers started things off very slow against Boston College before really turning on the jets, coming away with a 34-7 win in their respective conference opener. The Eagles aren't a great football team, but the Tigers' defense was still dominant, and the offense showed it could make plays even as their QB Kelly Bryant struggled (two INTs), as young running back Travis Etienne added 113 yards and two touchdowns. Clemson has another big game next week, as they must go on the road once again and beat a conference foe, this time 13th-ranked Virginia Tech. A win there, and you could definitely make the case Clemson has the best resume in college football, and should be the country's No. 1 team.

3 Penn State Nittany Lions 4-0 (1-0 Big Ten)
Going into Kinnick Stadium for a night game is one of the toughest things to do in college football, and Penn State nearly became the latest victim this Saturday. The Nittany Lions got all they could handle from the Hawkeyes before coming out on top, 21-19, in the final seconds. Running back Saquon Barkley put on an absolute show, with 211 rushing yards and 94 receiving yards while providing fans with plenty of highlight-reel plays. It certainly was quite the challenge for the Nittany Lions but Iowa is still a resume-boosting win and the win strengthens their resume. Only more reassuring for Penn State is the fact that their Big Ten East counterparts continue to underperform. Ohio State still has one loss, Michigan continues to underwhelm, Maryland lost to UCF and Michigan State was pounded by Notre Dame.

4 Oklahoma Sooners 4-0 (1-0 Big 12)
While most of the rest of the teams in the serious Playoff hunt came out with big wins (with the exception of Oklahoma State), the Sooners didn't exactly wow this past week. They were given quite the challenge by Baylor, who came into this game winless and had lost to Liberty and UTSA. Baker Mayfield and back Abdul Adams kept the offense humming along as usual, but the defense had it's worst performance of the year, allowing over 450 yards to Zach Smith and the Bears. Considering pass defense has been a serious Achilles Heel of the team over the past few seasons, it certainly was scary for Sooners' fans to see the team struggle once more. The good news is that Oklahoma will have some time to figure it out. Their next two opponents, Iowa State and Kansas State, aren't great passing teams and should be a good opportunity to test things out before their meeting with Texas Tech.

Next Four Out

5 USC Trojans 4-0 (2-0 Pac-12)
The Trojans won this weekend to remain flawless and claim their second Pac-12 win, but it was far from an impressive victory. Cal looks like a much better team than last year's 5-7 edition, but the Golden Bears seemed to really outplay USC in the battle, before the Trojans were able to turn it on. Sam Darnold played okay, but now has seven interceptions on the year (he had nine all of last year) and running back Ronald Jones II has struggled to stay healthy. On the other side of the ball, 'SC also has had issues stopping the pass, so there is work to be done. Even so, the Trojans are now 4-0 and until they falter they have to be viewed as the favorite in the conference.

6 Washington Huskies 4-0 (1-0 Pac-12)
For the first time in 2017, Washington took on a viable football team and they came out and blew out Colorado, winning by nearly four scores. The Buffaloes aren't the Pac-12 title contender they were last season, but they still come in 3-0, and Washington looked very good. The defense still has some things it needs to figure out and losing cornerback Byron Murphy certainly strings. But, the offense is still one of the nation's most dynamic, with quarterback Jake Browning leading the way, and Myles Gaskin also playing wonderful (had over 200 yards in this one). It was a very reassuring victory for UW, who had looked a little bit sloppy early on. Up next: a road meeting against Oregon State, who has had a rough '17.

7 Georgia Bulldogs 4-0 (1-0 SEC)
Simply stating that Georgia's 31-3 win over Mississippi State was impressive is somewhat of an understatement. Georgia came out and absolutely shredded a team coming off a 30-point win over LSU, with a true freshman QB starting just his third game. Despite his immense youth, Jake Fromm has looked calm and collected, and could be an improvement over the injured Jacob Eason. The Bulldogs' ground game is absolutely wonderful, and defensively, they look like they have a unit that can go head to head with anyone in the country, including Alabama. With no other team in the SEC East looking like serious threats to the 'Dawgs, UGA has to be viewed as the clear-cut favorite in the division.

8 TCU Horned Frogs 4-0 (1-0 Big 12)
Following an uneven 2016 in which they went 6-7, TCU has looked greatly improved so far this season and asserted themselves as a serious Big 12 title threat by beating Oklahoma State on the road. Second-year starter Kenny Hill has looked like a revelation so far in '17, cutting down on turnovers and making the right decisions. He is aided by underrated back Darius Anderson and big-play receiver KaVontae Turpin, giving TCU one of the nation's most explosive units. On the other side of the ball, defensive-minded Gary Patterson continues to work magic, shutting down Heisman threats Mason Rudolph and James Washington Jr. Unfortunately, things don't get any easier for the Horned Frogs these next couple weeks, as they go up against West Virginia and Kansas State, two quality Big 12 teams.

Others in the Mix
Wisconsin Badgers
Michigan Wolverines
Virginia Tech Hokies
Ohio State Buckeyes
Miami Hurricanes
Washington State Cougars
Florida Gators
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Auburn Tigers
Utah Utes

Thursday, September 21, 2017

College Football Picks 2017: Week Four

Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State
College Football Picks 2017: Week Four
Current Record: 16-8

(3-0) 6 Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. (3-0) 16 TCU Horned Frogs
@ Boone Pickens Stadium (Stillwater), 2:30 PM Saturday on ESPN

Criticized for their struggles over the past few years, it has been a resurgent 2017 for the Big 12 Conference. Oklahoma dominated Ohio State in the non-conference, Oklahoma State has looked terrific, and others, such as TCU and West Virginia, have looked good. The conference title shape is still wide-open, but this battle between the Cowboys and Horned Frogs should give us a better indication on how things will shape up. Oklahoma State is led by one of the nation's most explosive passing attacks, with Heisman candidate Mason Rudolph at QB spreading the ball to a variety of playmakers, namely James Washington Jr., Jalen McCleskey and Dillon Stoner. They do a terrific job of using the entire field, and no matter what defense they face, they find ways to attack. Add in underrated running back Justice Hill, and this is an offense that can keep scoreboard operators very busy, as they have over the first three weeks of the season. They present quite the challenge for a TCU defense that has looked very good so far in 2017, but is still prone to the big play, which the Cowboys specialize in. On the other side, the Horned Frogs have an offense that certainly can keep pace with Oklahoma State, particularly when Texas A&M transfer Kenny Hill is playing well. Hill still has issues with turnovers that the 'Pokes will certainly try to exploit, but when he plays under control he is a real difference-maker. He doesn't quite have the elite weapons at his disposal that Rudolph is blessed with, but running back Darius Anderson (262 yards, three touchdowns) and receivers Desmon White and KaVontae Turpin can still open up games. Much like TCU, Oklahoma State has played well on the defensive side of the ball so far in '17, but TCU has the most explosive offense they've seen all season long. That makes me believe that the game will likely turn into a typical Big 12 shootout, where defense is optional and the stats read more like a videogame than real life. There is a very good chance we good see 100-plus points, 1,000-plus total yardage and plenty of fireworks, especially with how unproven these defenses are. If it does turn into a shootout, Oklahoma State is the smarter pick. While Rudolph has occasionally struggled in big games, he has a ton of talent to throw to and will make another impressive Heisman statement in front of the home folks.

The Pick: Oklahoma State, 52 TCU, 42

(3-0) 11 Georgia Bulldogs vs. (3-0) 17 Mississippi State Bulldogs
@ Sanford Stadium (Athens), 6 PM Saturday on ESPN

Before last week this cross-division duel between Mississippi State and Georgia looked like a relatively unimportant game in the SEC Title race. That was before Mississippi State went out and absolutely dominated LSU, running past the Tigers 37-7. Now, the Bulldogs appear to perhaps be the biggest threat to Alabama in the SEC West, while Georgia is the early favorite in an interesting SEC East chase. Leading the way for Miss. State has been one of the country's most underrated quarterbacks in Nick Fitzgerald. Fitzgerald is not a great passer, but he does most of his damage running the ball, where his speed and big-play ability are consistent threats. When paired with dynamic running back Aeris Williams, the Bulldogs have one of the country's most dangerous ground games. Georgia is a great defensive football team, but they have been susceptible against the run, so we will see how they handle this one. On offense, UGA will likely turn to true freshman Jake Fromm once more, as sophomore Jacob Eason is likely to miss his third straight game. Fromm is still learning the ropes as a youngster, but he's shown impressive poise and confidence so far, and gets to play in front of his home crowd. Georgia should continue to keep it on the ground, however, as they feature one of the country's premier backfields. Senior Nick Chubb is the workhorse (290 yards, four touchdowns), while Sony Michel and D'Andre Swift bring interesting change of pace. They should have plenty of success running behind UGA's veteran offensive line, even against a Bulldogs' front seven that is very talented and has impressive athleticism. On the outside, Georgia hopes to have big days from receiver Terry Godwin and tight end Isaac Nauta, their two best pass-catchers. Mississippi State has defended the pass very well so far in 2017, but if UGA can soften up the defense first with the run then hit them with the pass, they could be very successful. It's hard to say Mississippi State's win over LSU last week was a signature win, but it certainly proved this team is a very real SEC threat. With Fitzgerald leading a dangerous offense and a solid defense, I think this team could definitely be a Playoff dark horse. Georgia's a good football team, but I worry about them stopping the run against a team like Miss. State. Even on the road, I like Mississippi State to be able to pull the upset.

The Pick: Mississippi State, 34 Georgia, 27

(3-0) 4 Penn State Nittany Lions vs. (3-0) Iowa Hawkeyes
@ Kinnick Stadium (Iowa City), 6:30 PM Saturday on ABC

Big-time upsets have been a staple of Iowa football under Kirk Ferentz, and the Hawkeyes hope that holds true once again in 2017. Iowa beat third-ranked Penn State in 2008, and second-ranked Michigan last season, and they are playing well enough to do even more damage. They are led by their usual, conservative, run-heavy offense. Backs Akrum Wadley and Nevada transfer James Butler have been quite the 1-2 punch this year, and it should be an interesting battle between them and a great Penn State front seven, headed by All-Conference linebacker Jason Cabinda. Sophomore signal-caller Nate Stanley has done a very fine job taking over for the departed C.J. Beathard. The Hawkeyes won't ask him to pass to much in this one, especially against a ball-hawking PSU secondary, but having him is still obviously a luxury. The key for Iowa will be on the other side of the ball, where they'll have to contain one of the country's most explosive offenses. QB Trace McSorley continues to make home run throws, running back Saquon Barkley is a very serious Heisman candidate, and at receiver, the Nittany Lions lean on tight end Mike Gesicki and wide outs DaeSean Hamilton and DeAndre Thompkins. Iowa is a very sound defensive team, especially in the linebacker corps where Josey Jewell and company make quite the impact. It will be interesting to see how two different football philosophies clash. Penn State tries to run their offense as quick and as up-tempo as possible, while the Hawkeyes want to control the ball and force it down their throats. Going on the road will also be quite a challenge for the Nittany Lions, particularly at a place like Kinnick Stadium, where Iowa always plays so much better and the fans make it such a hostile environment. I think it should really be a good game. Penn State is probably the more talented football team and can certainly light up the scoreboard, but there is something about night games against Iowa that are worrying. I think the Nittany Lions should be able to pull off the upset, but don't be surprised if see another magical Hawkeyes' upset?

The Pick: Penn State, 38 Iowa, 32

Other Picks
(#7) Washington, 33 Colorado, 24
(#1) Alabama, 35 Vanderbilt, 21
(#8) Michigan, 30 Purdue, 20
Kentucky, 28 (#20) Florida, 27
Notre Dame, 23 Michigan State, 20

Tuesday, September 19, 2017

Game Preview - St. John's vs. St. Thomas at Target Field

A Record in the Making?
Gary Fasching SJU and Glenn Caruso UST
This game has been talked about for almost a year.   It will be the first football game at Target Field, the baseball home the Minnesota Twins.    Why would these teams be doing this you ask?   One word — Records.    This game has historically held the record for largest crowd to attend a DIII football game with 17,000 - 18,000 getting crammed in the Clemens Stadium in Collegeville.  That was until UW-Whitewater and UW-Oshkosh broke the record roughly a year after the largest crowd ever to see St. John’s and St. Thomas.   So far over 30,000 tickets have been sold for this year's game which would shatter the record, but the weather forecast for the game is showing that rain is likely — stay tuned.

Regardless of attendance, one record that St. John’s is hoping to break is the recent trend of dominance by St. Thomas, winners of 6 of the last 8 meetings (St. John’s leads all time 51-34-1 dating back to 1901).   St. John’s fans might feel like this is their year as they come into the game ranked 7th in the nation while St. Thomas is 10th after a surprising road loss two weeks ago to un-ranked UW-Stout.   Rankings and records don’t always matter in this rivalry as both schools always seem to bring out the best in each other.

The teams this season
St. John’s comes into the game averaging 67.6 points on offense while only allowing 7.   St. Thomas is averaging 45 on offense while allowing 12.7.    Looking at yardage, St. Thomas is averaging 453 yd/game while allowing 234.7 while the Johnnies have a MIAC leading 519.7 yd/game while allowing 163.    On paper, these look to favor St. John’s but the numbers are skewed by their 98-0 win against St. Scholastica — especially rushing yards that has accounted for 2/3 of St. John’s total offense.   These yards will be much tougher to come by against St. Thomas as they are allowing only 63 yd/game — 3rd best in the MIAC (St. John’s is #1).

Prediction
Bottom line, I look for a very close game with an edge going towards St Thomas given their recent dominance.  I also do not expect them to commit the number of penalties that were a major contributor to their loss against UW-Stout.   Prediction - St. Thomas 31, St. John’s 28.


Editorial Note:  Your current contributor is a graduate of St. John’s and would be happy if the prediction is incorrect. 

Monday, September 18, 2017

Post-Week Three College Football Playoff Power Rankings

Kelly Brant, Clemson
The Four

1 Alabama Crimson Tide (3-0, 0-0 SEC)
For the second straight week, Alabama squared off against a Mountain West foe and once again, they had no issues. Sophomore signal-caller Jalen Hurts continues to impress making plays behind the country's best offensive line, and as expected, the Tide are as stout defensively as anybody in the nation. While Clemson and Oklahoma have had two straight weeks of big wins, Alabama still appears to be the best team in the country, until someone comes out and beats them. They are as balanced and well-rounded as any 'Bama we've seen under Nick Saban, and their resume will look strong as long as Florida State remains relevant. Their next battle will be on the road against Vanderbilt, which shouldn't be a super tough test, but will be a nice little introduction to the speed and physicality of SEC football.

2 Clemson Tigers (3-0, 1-0 ACC)
Remember when Clemson was supposed to take a big step back as they moved on from Deshaun Watson, Wayne Gallman, Mike Williams and the rest of their core from last year's National Championship team? So far, that certainly hasn't been the case. The Tigers pounded Louisville this past week to improve to 3-0, giving them their second straight win over a ranked team. What was even more impressive about the win is that they looked firmly dominant going on the road, and quarterback Kelly Bryant and the offense looked absolutely superb. It is still super early obviously but Clemson looks like a full-fledged Playoff threat. If they continue to play the way they have, they have a legitimate shot at meeting Alabama in the National Championship for what would be a third straight season.

3 Oklahoma Sooners 3-0 (0-0 Big 12)
One week removed from a huge road win over Ohio State, Oklahoma came out slow out of the gate against Tulane before turning on the jets, coming away with a 56-14 victory. Quarterback Baker Mayfield continues to absolutely shred opposing defenses, and the rest of the offense has played terrific. It has also been a huge relief to the Sooners' faithful that the defense has looked much improved. The unit has been a huge problem over the past few seasons in Norman, but it has been extremely stingy over the first three weeks, and could be a huge advantage in the pass-happy Big 12. The Sooners will begin their Big 12 slate this week on the road, but going up against the 0-3 Baylor Bears, who have already lost to Liberty and UTSA, shouldn't be too worrying.

4 USC Trojans 3-0 (0-0 Pac-12)
Over a decade after Vince Young led Texas on their wild National Title run over the Trojans, USC got their vengeance, taking down the Longhorns in a thriller, 27-24. It wasn't a very dominant victory over a Texas team that hasn't looked very good early on this season and was missing their starting QB, but 'SC adds another quality win to their resume. The fact that Stanford lost this weekend to San Diego State hurts them a bit, but the Trojans still appear to the team to beat in the Pac-12, particularly with UCLA getting upset this week. They go up against a sneaky Cal team this Saturday, but as long as Sam Darnold is leading the way and the defense continues to be solid, the Trojans should keep on chugging along.

Next Four Out

5 Penn State Nittany Lions 3-0 (0-0 Big Ten)
Another week, another dominant showing by Penn State, who absolutely dismantled Georgia State 56-0 this past weekend. The offense is certainly one of the nation's most explosive, with Trace McSorley leading the always-dangerous aerial attack, Saquon Barkley running the ball, and receives DaeSean Hamilton and Mike Gesicki opening things up. The defense hasn't faced a super tough test, but looks as good as ever over the first three weeks of the year. What hurts Penn State's resume is the fact that Pitt was blown by Oklahoma State on Saturday. The Panthers, who PSU beat comfortably, looked like they would be a resume-booster but their blowout loss to the Cowboys likely indicates it could be a rebuilding year, which leaves the Nittany Lions still searching for that signature win.

6 Oklahoma State Cowboys 3-0 (0-0 Big 12)
Oklahoma State absolutely throttled their first two opponents of the season, but their play on Saturday was even more impressive. Behind the huge arm of Mason Rudolph and the abundant weapons they have at receiver, the Cowboys ran past Pittsburgh, 59-21, a viable ACC program. It wasn't really a signature win for the Cowboys, but it kept up their momentum, and this team looks very dangerous. They'll hope to continue that hot streak going up against 16th-ranked TCU, who is certainly the toughest team they've faced so far in 2017. A win there, and you could certainly make the case Oklahoma State, and not their in-state rivals, are the team to beat in a suddenly competitive Big 12 race.

7 Washington Huskies 3-0 (0-0 Pac-12)
Three weeks into the season, it is hard to know what type of team Washington is. The Huskies look great on paper, with star QB Jake Browning, running back Myles Gaskin and wide out Dante Pettis leading the way, but they haven't faced any real competition. Their toughest opponent so far this season has probably been Rutgers, who lost to Eastern Michigan and is clearly a bottom-tier Big Ten team. However, we will start to understand just how good this year's UW team is this upcoming weekend as they square off against a Colorado team who could still be in Pac-12 South contention.

8 Wisconsin Badgers 3-0 (0-0 Big Ten)
Wisconsin is never going to be known as a very explosive team, especially offensively, but they looked very good this past Saturday going up against BYU. The Badgers dropped 40 on the board and threw the ball the best they have in years, as sophomore QB Alex Hornibrook displayed impressive poise and confidence. The ground game looks as dangerous as ever, with freshman Jonathan Taylor and Pitt transfer Chris James leading the way, and defensively, Wisconsin should be as stout as ever, even as they deal with injuries. The Badgers will be on a bye this week before they square off against Northwestern, which could be a tricky conference opener.

Others in the Mix
Michigan Wolverines
Ohio State Buckeyes
Georgia Bulldogs
Virginia Tech Hokies
Florida State Seminoles
Miami Hurricanes
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Kansas State Wildcats
TCU Horned Frogs
Auburn Tigers
Washington State Cougars
Florida Gators
Oregon Ducks

Tuesday, September 12, 2017

College Football Picks 2017: Week Three

Lamar Jackson, Louisville
College Football Picks 2017: Week Three
Current Record: 11-5

(2-0) 3 Clemson Tigers vs. (2-0) 14 Louisville Cardinals
@ Papa John's Stadium (Louisville), 7:00 PM Saturday on ABC

Last season, Lamar Jackson used a tremendous start to the season to jumpstart his Heisman candidacy before facing Clemson, a game they lost but in which his impressive play really solidified him as the Heisman favorite. This year, he has once more jumped off to a great start, absolutely shredding North Carolina last week, and will try to once more do serious damage against the Tigers but come up with a different result. Jackson has led a very explosive Louisville offense, but one that should be in store for their toughest challenge yet of 2017 going up against Clemson. The Tigers prepare as well as anybody in the country on the defensive side of the ball, and they have the personnel to shut down anybody. They should be creative with how they contain Jackson and while it is tough to completely contain the speedy junior, they should at least be able to handle him. For the Tigers, their offense will have to step things up after an uneven Week 2. Considering QB Kelly Bryant missed some time with a brief injury scare, and the unit was going up against a solid Auburn defense, it wasn't completely surprising. Bryant is fully healthy for this one, as is his usual supporting cast, which includes a deep stable of running backs, Hunter Renfrow and Deon Cain at receiver, along with a very good offensive line. Louisville did a pretty fine job holding Clemson's explosive offense in check for much of this game a season ago, but Bryant does present an interesting challenge. He isn't quite the passer nor leader (at least not yet) that Deshaun Watson was, but Bryant's a more dangerous runner and can really open up games. If the Cardinals aren't properly prepared, the junior could really have a coming out party. Louisville is hopeful All-American cornerback Jaire Alexander, who had a huge game in the battle last season, and the rest of the ball-hawking secondary can force the young signal-caller into mistakes, or else it is tough to stop Clemson's rhythm. Last year's battle between these two was one of the most exciting games of the year and had a major impact on the Playoff race and Heisman. Once more, I expect Jackson to work some magic and keep things close, but Clemson is the much better team overall. They should be able to go on the road and still get things done.

The Pick: Clemson, 31 Louisville, 26

(2-0) 23 Tennessee Volunteers vs. (0-1) 24 Florida Gators
@Ben Hill Griffin Stadium (Gainesville), 2:30 PM Saturday on CBS

After over a decade of losing to rival Florida, Tennessee finally flipped the script in 2016, coming from behind to overtake the Gators. Now, they hope to get a winning streak of their own in the rivalry as the 2017 edition rolls around. The Volunteers opened up the year with an uninspired start against Georgia Tech before a wonderful comeback, and then promptly handled Indiana State last week. The offense is still adjusting to new QB Quentin Dormandy and lead back John Kelly, but it has dropped 42 the past two weeks and proven it can be effective. It will have to be on its A-game once again, because Florida's defense is fast and athletic, and capitalizes on turnovers incredibly well. However, the same old issues seem to be haunting UF, and they almost all are on defense. The Gators managed just a field goal (granted, against a very good Michigan defense) in Week One and they struggled to move the ball at all. Redshirt frosh Feleipe Franks started the opener for Florida, and he is expected to as well in this one. Franks is a young QB with great potential, but he looked lost at times going upa against the Michigan defense and I won't be surprised at all to see Notre Dame grad transfer Malik Zaire, who saw some action in the opener, to get some playing time. The real X-factor for the Gators is the status of receiver Antonio Callaway and running back Jordan Scarlett. The two were just a couple of the ten Florida players suspended for the season opener, and their status for this one is completely unclear. Head coach Jim McElwain hasn't made it clear at all whether we will see the two on the field this Saturday, which is definitely unsettling if you're a Gator fan. Callaway, the team's most explosive weapon on the outside, and Scarlett, their top rusher from a year ago, are two huge components to this offense and they could be in store for another very long day if neither play. That could push youngsters like back Lamichael Perine (the younger brother of former Oklahoma back Samaje) and some fresh faces at receiver into larger roles. The Volunteers have been far from a good team defensively so far this season, and the loss of stud linebacker Darrin Kirkland, who's out for the year, only further hurts them. But, this team does have a pretty good pass defense, and they are passable against the run. Against the very limited Gators' offense, that may just be enough to put them in good position. It's hard to imagine any team walking into The Swamp and coming out with an easy victory, and Florida does certainly want vengeance for last year's loss. However, unless the current suspensions looming over this team are cleared up and the offense figures things out fast, the Volunteers seem like the safe pick here, in what should, as usual, be a hard-fought game.

The Pick: Tennessee, 24 Florida, 21

(2-0) 4 USC Trojans vs. (1-1) Texas Longhorns
@Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum (LA), 7:30 PM Saturday on FOX

For the first time since Vince Young led Texas to a wonderful, heroic National Title victory over the Trojans, Texas and USC collide. The states of the program are quite different than they were during that night over a decade ago. Texas is in their first year under Tom Herman and still figuring things out, as they started the year with a frustrating loss to Maryland. Meanwhile, the Trojans appear to be well on their way back to national relevancy after a rough couple of years, led by their superstar QB, Sam Darnold. The Trojans did start their opener slow against Western Michigan, but responded by pounding Stanford. Darnold, who had a poor game against WMU, played like the Heisman-type player he is capable of, and big-play threats like receivers Deontay Burnett and Steven Mitchell Jr. emerged. That should be worrying for a Longhorns' defense that continues to struggle, despite a new DC (Herman assistant Todd Orlando) and some other new pieces. The unit continues to be susceptible to big plays, and unless they take a big step forward in a week, they could be absolutely torched by Darnold. Offensively, Texas looked good this past week, but that was against a very poor San Jose State team. QB Shane Buechele is expected to retain the starting job, but he has continued to struggle with turnovers and decision-making and he'll face a very aggressive and hungry 'SC secondary. Back Chris Warren III had a great showing against SJSU, with 166 yards and two scores and the Longhorns will likely lean heavily on the workhorse back once again. But, this USC defense did shutdown Bryce Love and Stanford's rushing attack last weekend, and they should be well-equipped to do much the same this week, with linebackers Cameron Smith and Porter Gustin leading the charge. Another concern Texas is hoping they can figure out quick is the O-Line, which much like many other parts of this team, has serious talent, but has underperformed early on. If the unit has a poor day against the Trojans, it is very hard to imagine the offense really being able to do anything at all against USC. Even though none of the players nor most of the coaches were on the sidelines last time these two squared off, you have to feel like two of the biggest blue bloods in the sport feel like they have something to prove. Tom Herman is clearly a good football coach and I firmly believe he'll have the Longhorns playing better ball after a rocky start to the 2017 campaign but I'm not sure they are at USC's level just yet, particularly considering they would need to go on the road and win with one of the sport's youngest rosters.

The Pick: USC, 41 Texas, 28

Other Picks
(#12) LSU, 28 Mississippi State, 24
(#9) Oklahoma State, 37 Pittsburgh, 31
(#10) Wisconsin, 28 BYU, 17
(#7) Michigan, 30 Air Force, 22
South Carolina, 35 Kentucky, 24

Sunday, September 10, 2017

Post-Week Two College Football Playoff Picture

Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma
The Four

1 Alabama Crimson Tide (2-0, 0-0 SEC)
As expected, Alabama had no issues with Fresno State, rolling to a 41-10 victory. Sophomore QB Jalen Hurts still is improving as a passer, but he looks as dangerous as ever running the ball, with 154 yards and two touchdowns on just 10 rushes. With him, Bo Scarbrough and Damien Harris, the Tide are absolutely scary on the ground, and it's hard to see anybody being able to contain that. Add to that a usually dominant defense, and Alabama looks unsurprisingly, like one of the nation's most complete teams. With that Florida State victory on their resume, the Tide should be in wonderful position going forward in the Playoff picture.

2 Oklahoma Sooners (2-0, 0-0 Big 12)
After losing to Ohio State last season handily Oklahoma came with a vengeance this past week, spanking the Buckeyes on the road. It was a message from a program with a first-year head coach and one sometimes criticized for their inability to win big games. Quarterback Baker Mayfield has looked absolutely wonderful, and may be the Heisman frontrunner after the first two games of the year. However, what has been even more impressive and key to the Sooners' hot start is the play of the defense, which has been terrific. Now through the toughest game of their season, Oklahoma should be favored in every single game they play the rest of the way and have a little bit of breathing room if they are to lose, as a big non-conference victory strengthens their resume in a big way.

3 Clemson Tigers (2-0, 0-0 ACC)
Many expected Clemson to struggle as the move on from the Deshaun Watson, but that hasn't really been the case for the Tigers. New QB Kelly Bryant hasn't been absolutely perfect but he has still given this offense plenty of help, and the rest of the offense has been pinpoint. On the other side of the ball, the Tigers are as strong as anybody in the country, especially up front where you could make the case that they have three All-Americans on the defensive line. With a strong non-conference victory over Auburn and the fact that Florida State will likely take a step back without Deondre Francois, Clemson's chances of returning to a third consecutive Playoff seem very, very good.

4 Penn State Nittany Lions (2-0, 0-0 Big Ten)
While Penn State didn't beat a Top 25 team like Oklahoma and Clemson, they still certainly helped their Playoff case with a very impressive Week 2. The Nittany Lions ran past in-state rival Pittsburgh, handling the Panthers with ease. The offense, which returns nearly every major component from last year's explosive group, has looked absolutely superb and defensively, they are good enough to compete with everyone. This program once looked to have little direction in the first two seasons of the James Franklin era, but they've played with a certain swagger and energy over the last year and a half. With Ohio State and Michigan both not playing very well, it seems pretty clear that Penn State is the team to beat in the Big Ten East.

Next Four Out

5 USC Trojans (2-0, 1-0 Pac-12)
After a pretty unimpressive opener in which the Trojans came out pretty flat against Western Michigan, USC looked very strong in their conference opener against Stanford. Sam Darnold recovered from a poor Week One to play like the Heisman candidate we were expecting before the season began, while the defense did a superb job containing Bryce Love and Stanford's rush attack. It is still unclear whether this USC team is the Playoff-caliber team many thought they were prior to the season, but they've looked pretty solid. They should have a great chance at running the table before they reach the Pac-12 Championship Game, especially if they can avoid any trap games.

6 Washington Huskies (2-0, 0-0 Pac-12)
Much like last season, Washington has played an incredibly soft non-conference slate having no issues with either Rutgers nor Montana State. QB Jake Browning has engineered a very explosive offense, although the O-Line has been struggling with consistency early on. The key will be an improvement in the secondary, where UW has played well so far, but is still recovering from the loss of three NFL draft selections. If they can get that unit in tip-top shape before they really face the bulk of their conference schedule, which really starts in two weeks with a road trip to Colorado, this team should be as strong as ever.

7 Oklahoma State Cowboys (2-0, 0-0 Big 12)
While their archrival Oklahoma went out and played a tough non-conference game in the season's second week, Oklahoma State has been beating up on some less impressive opponents. That may hurt them later on, but so far, they've looked as good as anybody. As expected, QB Mason Rudoloph and wide out James Washington Jr. have looked absolutely wonderful, and certainly could be considered Heisman candidates. The defense really hasn't faced a very tough opponent, but their play so far should still leave the fans in Stillwater excited about this team's potential. Things do get tougher for Oklahoma State now, as they go on the road to play Pittsburgh and then square off against TCU, in a game that should keep the scoreboard operators very busy.

8 Michigan Wolverines (2-0, 0-0 Big Ten)
Despite the fact QB Wilton Speight and the offense have lacked much rhythm for much of the season's first two weeks, Michigan has started off 2-0 and owns a very quality non-conference win over Florida. Speight will have to pick it up eventually but for the time being, Michigan has to be perfectly fine using their dangerous ground attack and incredibly quick defense to beat down opponents. The defense especially has looked absolutely wonderful, holding Florida to just one single field goal (UF did score two defensive touchdowns). If the Wolverines can keep that pace up on that side of the ball, they will certainly be quite the threat inside the Big Ten.

Others in the Mix
Ohio State Buckeyes
LSU Tigers
Wisconsin Badgers
Louisville Cardinals
Georgia Bulldogs
Florida State Seminoles
Virginia Tech Hokies
Miami Hurricanes
Kansas State Wildcats
TCU Horned Frogs
Washington State Cougars
Tennessee Volunteers

Wednesday, September 6, 2017

College Football Picks 2017: Week Two

J.K. Dobbins, Ohio State
College Football Picks 2017: Week Two
Current Record: 5-3

(1-0) 2 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. (1-0) 5 Oklahoma Sooners
@Ohio Stadium (Columbus), 6:30 PM Saturday on ABC

After getting dominated by Ohio State in this matchup last year, Oklahoma is eager to get vengeance on the Buckeyes as the two square off in a big primetime battle. The Sooners looked nearly flawless in their opener, pummeling UTEP 56-7, as QB Baker Mayfield threw just one incompletion. On the other side, the Buckeyes opened up slow against Indiana before turning on the jets and winning easily in Bloomington. The Buckeyes struggled to defend the pass in that victory against Indiana, and they could be in store for a tough showing against Mayfield and the impressive weapons OU has on the perimeter. The good news is that their defensive front may be the country's best, which they certainly demonstrated in their opener. The D-Line of Tyquan Lewis, Dre'Mont Jones, Sam Hubbard and Nick Bosa is as athletic and versatile as you can get in the country, so expect Lincoln Riley and the rest of the Sooners' staff to lean almost exclusively on the pass. Ohio State didn't perform quite the way they wanted to offensively for much of their opener, so there may be some pressure on new OC Kevin Wilson to produce even more in this one. J.T. Barrett received a ton of hype throughout the off-season, but didn't look overwhelmingly great in the first game. The veteran can understand any defense, but he is still hesitant with many of his throws and still struggles to extend the field. He'll hope some more receivers can step beyond Parris Campbell and rock-solid tight end Marcus Baugh to counter a solid Oklahoma secondary that includes shutdown corner Jordan Thomas. In the backfield, true freshman J.K. Dobbins impressed in his debut, showing incredible burst and wiggle. He should see plenty of action in this one, but Ohio State may also get sophomore Mike Weber back, the season's projected starter who missed the opener with hamstring problems. That gives OSU a scary 1-2 punch at the position, going up against a Sooners' defense not known for being very adept at stopping the rush. Since it is so early in the year, it's pretty hard to know exactly how good these two teams are, but their openers gave us enough indication that both should be quite dangerous. I think it should be a very evenly matched game, and one that should include plenty of points. I think Oklahoma has the advantage at quarterback, but Ohio State has more depth throughout their roster and considering that it is in Columbus, I like the Buckeyes in a thriller.

The Pick: Ohio State, 37 Oklahoma, 34

(1-0) 3 Clemson Tigers vs. (1-0) 13 Auburn Tigers
@Memorial Stadium (Clemson), 6 PM Saturday on ESPN

Clemson and Auburn both rolled in their respective openers, as Auburn spanked Georgia Southern 41-7, while Clemson had no issues with Kent State, winning by over 50. After getting warmed up, the two teams will now collide in what could be a very important game in the Playoff chase. Clemson got a terrific debut from quarterback Kelly Bryant, who looked confident and ready to dominate. Bryant may not have the clutch gene that Deshaun Watson had (although we don't know that for sure yet) but his explosive speed and solid accuracy should keep this offense dangerous. Backs Tavien Feaster and C.J. Fuller, along with wide outs Deon Cain and Hunter Renfrow should also give Auburn headaches trying to contain. Auburn is a decent defensive football team, but it's hard to imagine them having a successful game if they can't contain Clemson's ground attack, which racked up big plays against Kent State like they were nothing. On offense, Auburn's unit looked quite lethal in the opener, but obviously Clemson is a major step-up from Georgia Southern. Baylor transfer Jarrett Stidham looked good in the opener, but the Tigers are the best defense he has probably ever faced. He'll not only have to contend with a secondary that isn't elite, but good, and a front seven that is among the best in collegiate football. Dexter Lawrence, Clelin Ferrell and Christian Wilkins love wreaking havoc on opponents, and it will be interesting to see how Auburn's O-Line handles the trio, along with the depth that Clemson can also bring to the table. Clemson's rush defense is strong as well, and it presents a challenge for Gus Malzahn, who is well-known for his love of running the ball and the read-option. Kamryn Pettway and Kerryon Johnson are quite the load to handle, however, and Malzahn can be creative with how he gets them the ball. As long as the O-Line does hold up for the most part and Stidham can make some plays down the field, Auburn's offense shouldn't have too much problems keeping up with Clemson. Both of these teams entered the season with high expectations, and the winner should put themselves in very good Playoff position early on. Once again, it seems like a pretty evenly-matched game, and I expect it to be very competitive. However, I feel much more confident about Clemson's defense, and their ability to win big games than I do at this point for Auburn. Clemson should be able to do just enough to keep the fans quite happy in Memorial Stadium this Saturday.

The Pick: Clemson, 34 Auburn, 27

(1-0) 15 Georgia Bulldogs vs. (1-0) 24 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
@Notre Dame Stadium (South Bend), 6:30 PM Saturday on NBC

Georgia's start to the 2017 season started off with a victory over a very dangerous Appalachian State team, but it also started off with a notable loss. Sophomore quarterback Jacob Eason, who many expected to have a breakout second year in Athens, will be out for an undisclosed amount of time due to a sprained knee. Since it is only a sprain and not anything more serious it likely shouldn't cost him too much time, but there is a good chance he'll miss a couple weeks, including this one against a Notre Dame team that looked much improved in their opener, beating Temple easily. Georgia will turn to true frosh Jake Fromm now, a guy with talent but obviously little experience. The Bulldogs will almost certainly lean on their ground game for the for-seeable future, as backs Nick Chubb and Sony Michel should lead the way. Notre Dame has taken steps in the right direction on the defensive side of the ball following a disastrous start to 2016, but this is still a unit that can be bullied. If the Bulldogs keep it on the ground and play physical, they should be able to put up points. The Irish are still figuring out things offensively, but they looked great in the opener. QB Brandon Wimbush is a better runner than DeShone Kizer, even if he doesn't have his arm strength. That gives the unit a much different dynamic that it had last year, and it should have plenty of success. But, they must also operate against a Georgia defense that is looking wonderful, and is among the most experienced in the country. The group brought back 10 starters prior to 2017 and it has studs on every single level, especially the linebacker corps and the secondary. Georgia has had a Top 10 pass defense the past two seasons and the way they played against App. State indicates that they should be stout once again. That should put quite a bit of pressure on Wimbush, who doesn't really have a great group of receivers to work with. Junior running back Josh Adams will also have to play a large role after managing 161 yards in the opener, but Georgia's speed and quickness at linebacker enables them to have one incredibly stingy unit. Going on the road with a true freshman at quarterback is disheartening, particularly at a place like Notre Dame. Even so, the Bulldogs' stocked backfield and strong defense should put them in very good position to win the game. As long as Fromm does what is asked and doesn't turn the ball over, I like Georgia's chances to come out on top in what should be a hard-fought game.

The Pick: Georgia, 27 Notre Dame, 17

Other Picks
(#1) Alabama, 49 Fresno State, 13
(#4) Penn State, 38 Pittsburgh, 33
Arkansas, 31 (#23) TCU, 28
Oregon, 35 Nebraska, 30
Iowa, 26 Iowa State, 17