Friday, February 24, 2017

MLB Preview 2017: American League East

Dustin Pedroia, Boston
1. Boston Red Sox 
Roster Schedule
2016 Record: 93-69
Despite winning the highly competitive AL East last season, Boston flopped out in the ALDS, amounting to a relatively disappointing 2016. They responded by simply going out and trading for one of the top hurlers in the sport, in lefty ace Chris Sale from the White Sox. Sale went 17-10 with a 3.34 ERA in '16, and could immediately take over the top spot in the rotation, even with reigning Cy Young winner Rick Porcello and former Cy Young winner David Price also returning. The addition may give the Red Sox another wonderful arm to build around, but the move did not come without cost. Yoan Moncada and Michael Kopech are two of the best prospects in baseball, especially Moncada, a shortstop with superstar upside. The move indicates the Red Sox are going all in for a World Series title, putting added pressure on a roster with plenty of talent. Boston is led by shortstop Xander Bogaerts, designated hitter Hanley Ramirez and long-time staple Dustin Pedroia, who is now 33. Bogaerts and Pedroia could form the best middle infield in baseball, and at 24, Bogaerts is only getting better. The Red Sox are also hopeful for resurgent seasons from third basemen Pablo Sandoval (just six at-bats in 2016) and a breakout from outfielder Andrew Benintendi, an early favorite for AL Rookie of the Year. Overall, Boston has the makeup of a top-end team, with a wonderful top-end of the rotation, a superb bullpen and some terrific offensive talent. If things go right, this team should return to the World Series for the first time since 2013, when they won it all.
Projected Record: 96-66 Projected Result: Lose in World Series

2. Toronto Blue Jays
Roster Schedule
2016 Record: 89-73
The Blue Jays have been to two consecutive American League Championships, but enter a transition season in 2017. Two key members of their recent successful teams, Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion, are both gone, leaving Toronto looking to others to step up. The good news is that this offense could still be lethal, with Josh Donaldson and Troy Tulowitzki ready to go. Donaldson has grown into one of the best third basemen in baseball, recording 37 homers and 99 RBIs in '16, while Tulowitzki is still an All-Star caliber shortstop when healthy. The X-Factor of the team has to be their rotation, which was a force all last season but has some questions. Aaron Sanchez has developed into an ace, but is still trying to prove '16 was no fluke, when he went 15-2. J.A. Happ is as steady and reliable as they come as a middle-end option, while Marco Estrada and Marcus Stroman are still growing. Hoping for a bounce-back campaign is Francisco Liriano, who was okay in Toronto after being dealt by Pittsburgh at the trade deadline. Liriano has struggled with injuries throughout his career, but if he is the No. 5 in the rotation, he could still surprise. The bullpen is also trying to emerge as one of the best groups in baseball, as budding star Roberto Osuna keeps getting better. Osuna had 36 saves in 2016 after a wonderful rookie season, and is ready to continue to grow his pitching arsenal. Rock-solid set-up man Jason Grilli is also going to play a big role, after being acquired from Atlanta at the deadline. The Blue Jays may miss Encarnacion and Bautista's power, but the offense should still be in good shape, particularly if Tulo stays healthy and recently acquired Kendrys Morales takes over the DH role and breaks out. If the rotation and bullpen can continue to improve, a return to the ALCS is not completely out of the question.
Projected Record: 87-75 Projected Result: Lose in Wild Card Game

3. Baltimore Orioles
Roster Schedule
2016 Record: 89-73
Despite playing in the tough AL East and not being a huge market team, Baltimore has continued to be one of the most consistent franchises in the MLB, now recording five straight seasons of at least a .500 record. The same old faces are back in '17, which should mean another successful season for the O's. 3B Manny Machado, 1B Chris Davis and center fielder Adam Jones gives Baltimore some wonderful pop in the heart of their lineup, but also a group that strikes out a ton. That puts a lot of stress on the top of the lineup, which could be worrying. Baltimore is immensely deep in their rotation, with five quality starters, from Chris Tillman to Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman. It also has two guys trying to prove themselves, in Yovani Gallardo and Wade Miley. Gallardo was an ace in Milwaukee a few years back but has struggled to adjust to AL batters, while Miley has bounced around over the past couple seasons and struggled in 11 starts last season for the Orioles. If those guys don't produce, the Orioles can always fall back on a bullpen that has superstar closer Zach Britton, who went 47 for 47 on save opportunities. It may be hard for Britton to completely replicate those numbers, but his play is a major advantage for Baltimore over some of the others in the American League. The Orioles also must break in a new catcher in Wellington Castillo, who replaces multiple All-Star Matt Weiters, which could need some adjustment. From the looks of it, this seems like a prototypical Baltimore team. They have their core of stars, an efficient rotation and are solid defensively, which should keep them right in the thick of things in the playoff chase. However, they might not have the offensive punch or diversity to get over the top in such a tough division.
Projected Record: 84-78 Projected Result: Miss Postseason

4. New York Yankees 
Aaron Judge, New York

Roster Schedule
2016 Record: 84-78
The Yankees have long been known as the team able to spend big-time cash to acquire marquee free agents and while they won't go away from that formula anytime soon, there is some significant young talent on this roster. Most notable of those young stars is catcher Gary Sanchez, who has been so good the Yankees moved on from former All-Star Brian McCann. In just 53 games in the MLB, Sanchez had 20 home runs and hit .299, looking quite like the real deal. First basemen Greg Bird appears primed for a breakout after missing all of last season due to injury, and outfielder Aaron Judge has legit power. When paired with quality veterans Matt Holliday (signed this off-season to play DH for the Yanks), and speedy outfielders Brett Gardner and Jacoby Ellsbury, this lineup has plenty of potential. Much like others, the key has to be the rotation, which has some question marks. Masahiro Tanaka (14-4, 3.07 ERA in '16) is still an ace but heads into a contract year, while C.C. Sabathia appears to be nearing the end of his career. Michael Pineda has been frustratingly inconsistent throughout his time with the Yankees, while youngster Luis Severino needs to recover from a brutal '16 in which he went 3-8 with a nearly 6 ERA. The bullpen should be top-notch, as the Yankees paid big money to Aroldis Chapman to bring him back as closer, and the flamethrower should be helped by superb relievers Dellin Betances and Tyler Clippard. With many long-time icons of the franchise moving on (Derek Jeter, Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez, Mariano Rivera) New York still sits in somewhat of a transition phase. The young studs are good enough to provide some fireworks but some rotation woes and depth questions could hold them back. The Yanks should be competitive, but some of the youth and growing pains could restrict them from making a serious run at the postseason.
Projected Record: 82-80 Projected Result: Miss Postseason

5. Tampa Bay Rays
Roster Schedule
2016 Record: 68-94
After two missed postseason appearances but still competitive years, Tampa struggled mightily in 2016, dropping to 94 losses, their most since changing from the Devil Rays to simply the Rays. It wasn't super surprising, considering the defense was poor, the base-running putrid, and not a whole lot of roster upside. Long-time third basemen Evan Longoria is still in Tampa, and while the rest of the team struggled, he had a resurgent season, with 36 home runs. Longoria may be nearing the end of his prime years, but is still a building block with his power and experience. Beyond him, the lineup lacks a lot of playmakers. Possible leadoff man Kevin Kiermaier is okay, Wilson Ramos could have a bounce-back season after being acquired from Washington and many believe first basemen Brad Miller could be in store for a huge 2017 after knocking 30 home runs last year. The Rays' rotation has always been something they could rely on, but there are some question marks there as well. Chris Archer had a relatively disappointing '16, but the flamethrowing right-hander can still be considered the ace of the staff. However, he needs others to step up around him, notably vets Alex Cobb and/or Drew Smyly in order for the group to really be successful. Another concern is the closer role, where former reliever Alex Colome has transitioned. Colome was pretty good after moving to the role, but still lacks the experience of other guys in the division. As the calendar turns, the Rays appear to be on the verge of major changes. A new stadium has reportedly been in the works for a long time and a possible rebranding could also be happening. But, that doesn't change the fact this team is still years away from competing and lacks much concrete direction. Stars like Archer, Longoria and Miller will keep them playing hard every game, but it is hard to imagine them improving at all from last year.
Projected Record: 68-94 Projected Result: Miss Postseason

Sunday, February 19, 2017

Scouting the Contenders: Villanova Wildcats

Mikal Bridges
As March Madness slowly inches closer and closer, "Scouting the Contenders" takes a look at some of the nation's best teams in a chaotic race, and scouts their strengths and weaknesses and just how far they could go in the NCAA Tournament. We continue with the reigning National Champion Villanova Wildcats, who are on a fast track to a No. 1 seed.

Track Record

  • 26-2 record, 13-2 conference (Big East)
  • Notable Wins: 79-76 over Purdue, 61-59 over Virginia, 74-66 over Notre Dame
  • Notable Losses: 66-58 to Butler, 74-72 to Marquette
  • Clinched at least a share of the Big East title for fourth straight season (no team prior has ever had four consecutive Big East crowns)
  • Held No. 1 overall ranking for five weeks of season
Scouting Report: Last year around this time, I published a "Scouting the Contenders" article on Villanova admiring their continued success atop the Big East but projecting them as a "Sweet 16 team at best." The Wildcats proved me and plenty of others wrong, beating top overall seed Kansas, the Buddy Hield-led Oklahoma Sooners and UNC en route to the program's second national title. Now, this 'Nova team is no underdog of any sorts. The reigning National Champ has looked like the most consistent team in college basketball for a big chunk of the year, and has held on to the No. 1 ranking for an impressive five weeks. The driving force to their success has been veteran Josh Hart, a serious candidate for National Player of the Year. Hart contemplated going pro following a great NCAA Tournament in 2016, but his decision to stay has paid off in a big way. Hart is averaging 18.8 PPG while shooting nearly 51 percent from the field at an incredibly efficient rate. The senior has all the offensive tools to lead Villanova to great heights, and having a reliable No. 1 scoring option like him is an advantage 'Nova has over many others. Hart is helped by one of the nation's most underrated guards in sophomore Jalen Brunson. Brunson was mainly a support valve for star point guard Ryan Arcidiacono last year but has taken over the reigns of the offense in '17. The extremely cerebral guard is now averaging 14.6 PPG and 4.5 APG and looks like he could be another guiding force for the 'Cats. Wing contributors like Kris Jenkins (last year's National Championship Game hero), Mikal Bridges and Donte DiVincenzo give Villanova a plethora of other weapons to score. Jenkins has slumped at times but is still a hard-working vet that can score from anywhere, the high-upside Bridges is a great athlete and shoots over 90 % from the free throw line, while DiVincenzo is as rock-solid a defender as you will see in the physical Big East. When also considering the depth behind many of these guys, Villanova appears to have the roster clearly poised to make another deep tourney run. The only thing that could be standing in their way is the lack of a true post weapon. Last season, Villanova was extremely thin beyond center Daniel Ochefu but rode a small-ball attack to their National Title. Ochefu is now gone, and 'Nova really lacks any true post that can simply set up and dominate in the paint. Darryl Reynolds and Jenkins are technically forwards but do much of their damage in the mid range and outside, and the Wildcats leading rebounder is Hart, a guard. So far, their lack of significant size hasn't really hurt Villanova even against teams that love to pound the ball down low (namely Purdue and Virginia), because 'Nova is so good at minimizing mismatches and Jay Wright is one of the best there is. Yet, it is still a worrying weakness for the 'Cats, and one many will hope to attack in the NCAA Tournament.

The Verdict: Along with Kansas and possibly Gonzaga, Villanova has to be the team I'm most confident in as March comes closer. They don't have the pure star-power others may boast (ahem, Duke and Kentucky) but stars are never a true indicator of a great college basketball team. Villanova has the leadership and state of mind to overcome any opponent, and they play the smart, unselfish basketball that is so key in March. Last year, Arcidiacono and Ochefu overcome the doubters and ended their collegiate careers playing wonderful basketball, with plenty of help from the younger guys. Hart and Jenkins could do much the same, with plenty of help from Brunson and Bridges, of course. With the ever-reliable Hart leading the charge, and enough diversity on both sides of the ball, I love the look of this team, even if their lack of size or a "true" center possibly haunts them. If the season ended today, Villanova would be a surefire pick to go deep, and I would not be surprised at all to see this team threaten a repeat, even in a sport where parity and chaos reigns supreme.

Thursday, February 16, 2017

Bubble Watch 2017: In/Out for Top Bubble NCAA Tournament Teams

Haanif Cheatham, Marquette
The last few weeks before March Madness are among the craziest in college basketball, as teams are desperately attempting to gain momentum before the NCAA Tournament or simply ensure a spot in the 68-team field. There a wide-ranging number of teams currently sitting on the bubble watch from ACC teams to lower-tier conferences. As of right now, here is a list of which ones should be in and which ones should be out as March 12th (Selection Sunday) approaches

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (15-11, 6-7) 
When Josh Pastner opted to head to Atlanta, many people believed it was simply to ditch out of a Memphis program primed to fire the still-young head coach. Because of this, expectations for the Yellow Jackets were very dim entering 2016-2017. Georgia Tech has responded with a marvelous season, and remains very much on the bubble. The Yellow Jackets possess an okay record and sit at about .500 in what is probably the toughest conference in the sport. However, the thing keeping them most attractive to the Committee has to be some of their huge wins. The Yellow Jackets have beaten Florida State, UNC and Notre Dame, which has helped them overcome a poor RPI (76) and mediocre strength of schedule (57). Georgia Tech now moves into an interesting part of their schedule. All of their games are winnable over the next five, and two of them are against Syracuse, who also sits on the bubble. Taking advantage of that favorable schedule and perhaps doing some damage in the conference tournament could be the ingredient needed to propel GT into the field.
Verdict: In

Clemson Tigers (14-11, 4-9)
Clemson got a huge victory against fellow bubble-team Wake Forest this week, but this team still sits in a precarious position right now. Many people believe the Tigers are in, but it is hard to overlook a 4-9 conference record, even in the ACC. The tough part is, Clemson could easily have beaten Duke (lost 64-62), Syracuse (82-81), UNC (89-86) and Virginia Tech (82-81), which would have given their resume a major boost if they had even managed one or two of those collapses. The Tigers' schedule the rest of the way isn't brutal, but includes a number of road tests. This team has to be also likely get a signature victory in order to secure a berth in the Big Dance. As long as that is absent, it is hard for me to put a 12th place team into the field.
Verdict: Out

Wake Forest Demon Deacons (15-11, 6-8)
Quietly, Danny Manning has Wake Forest headed to their best season in a long time and in an interesting spot in mid-February. The Demon Deacons own a decent record, but much like Clemson, they lack a real, eye-popping win. They have feasted on mainly the ACC bottom-feeders, and failed to beat anyone of note in the non-conference. The good news is that a battle with Duke and then Louisville later gives them two opportunities to really show what they can do. Splitting one or winning both could greatly help the Demon Deacons, particularly if they combine that with a conference tourney run. But, Wake still appears on the outside looking in at the moment, until they prove they can hang with the big boys.
Verdict: Out

Seton Hall Pirates (16-9, 6-7)
The Big East is a very good conference this season, which bodes well for Seton Hall, who has very strong tournament chances despite a sub-.500 record in the conference. Headed by Khadeem Carrington and a lengthy list of offensive weapons, the Pirates have had some terrific moments, with two huge victories against South Carolina and Creighton this week. Yet, there are some serious worries when examining Seton Hall as well. They were blown out by Villanova, and have failed to really play well against many of the other Big East powers. The Pirates get 'Nova later this week, in a game that could well play a huge role for their tournament hopes. Like most teams on this list, Seton Hall still has to end the year well, but a decent RPI and SOS will continue to propel them.
Verdict: In

Marquette Golden Eagles (15-10, 6-7)
Here is a crazy fact: Marquette has the longest NCAA Tournament drought out of any Division I Wisconsin school, spanning three seasons. There is a good chance that comes to an end in 2017, as the Golden Eagles have a strong enough resume to get in. Marquette may also be sub-.500 in the Big East, but own to huge victories over Villanova and Creighton. Although, the Golden Eagles have lost four of five since that two-game stretch of victories. That leaves them with plenty of work to do, likely needing to beat either Xavier or Creighton to end the year to have any chance. Yet, that 'Nova victory is a key advantage for Marquette few others can boast.
Verdict: In

Indiana Hoosiers (15-12, 5-9)
A quick look at Indiana's record over the last few weeks and a 5-9 mark in the struggling Big Ten is enough for many to discredit any chance the Hoosiers make the tourney. But, the Hoosiers are still alive, only because of two huge non-conference victories over Kansas and UNC, both who could get No. 1 seeds. Those wins may show this team's vast potential, but you also have to recognize just how poorly Indiana is playing right now. They have lost six of their last seven and lost to another bubble team, Michigan by 30 points recently. They still have an opportunity to beat two likely NCAA Tournament teams in Northwestern and Purdue, but the window of opportunity is quickly slamming shut in Bloomington.
Verdict: Out

Alabama Crimson Tide (15-10, 8-5)
In the SEC, it appears Kentucky, Florida and probably South Carolina are locks, with plenty of chaos beyond that. Arkansas is in prime position to be the fourth team in, but Alabama, Auburn and Tennessee are all jostling for position for a chance at a fifth bid. 'Bama probably has the best chance, because they are playing the best of the trio and own the best conference record. Also helping the Tide's case is a recent victory over South Carolina, which added some bulk to a pretty thin resume. Yet, my major worry with Alabama is the fact the SEC has not gotten much respect from the Committee the last few seasons, and it is hard to imagine that changing. Unless they can jump Arkansas, I find it tough to see five teams getting in from the conference.
Verdict: Out

Illinois State Redbirds (22-5, 14-1)
Illinois State is not like most of the teams on this list, because of course they play in the Missouri Valley, where it is always tough to secure multiple tournament bids. The Redbirds and Wichita State are in a dead heat for the regular season crown, with both at 14-1 in the conference. Illinois State actually beat the Shockers once, but Wichita does have a better overall record and responded by beating them by 41. Whichever team doesn't win the conference tournament could be in an interesting spot, but Illinois State would put a good case for deserving of an at-large bid. They have a poor SOS and lack many big wins, but their RPI is terrific (36) and they have the makeup of a tourney team, with plenty of experience and depth. It is hard to say whether the Committee would prefer a .500 ACC team or a five-loss Missouri Valley team when it comes down to it, but I'd prefer the Redbirds over most.
Verdict: In

Sunday, February 12, 2017

Big Ten Power Rankings 2016-2017: Edition 2

Melo Trimble, Maryland
1. Wisconsin Badgers (21-3 overall, 10-1 conference)
While the rest of the Big Ten is beating each other up, the Badgers have emerged as the clear-cut team to beat in the conference. They have won eight straight since an 11-point loss to Purdue, and look as motivated and hungry as ever. The Badgers core of veterans continues to be the X-factor pushing them over the rest in the conference. Nigel Hayes and Ethan Happ are two of the Big Ten's best forwards in the country, and as versatile and well-rounded as you can get at the position. Joining them is senior point guard Bronson Koenig, who doesn't put up huge numbers, but is perhaps the most clutch player in the conference. The Badgers don't have an easy schedule the rest of the way, having to go on the road against suddenly hot Ohio State and always dangerous Michigan State. Yet, this team appears to be the most balanced and well-built squad in the Big Ten. The next step has to be getting more national recognition, as the Big Ten was left out of the Top 16 seeds in the early NCAA Tournament seeding reveal altogether.
2. Purdue Boilermakers (20-5 overall, 9-3 conference)
While the Badgers may have the lead in the conference, Purdue is right on their tails, and looks talented enough to continue their chase after UW. The Boilermakers may sit at 20-5 with a 9-3 conference record, but they have also been very hot, winning six of their last seven with their lone loss coming on the road 83-80 to Nebraska. Gigantic sophomore big man Caleb Swanigan surprised some when he opted to return for another year in West Lafayette, but so far the move has paid off. Swanigan has emerged as a truly dominant force in the low post, and there are few teams inside the conference that have anybody that can match him. More good news for Purdue: they have a very favorable schedule remaining, really missing out on any of the real powers of the conference, with a road test against Northwestern likely being their toughest opponent.
3. Maryland Terrapins (21-4 overall, 9-3 conference)
The Terrapins continue to not get a whole lot of attention from the national media, but have continued a surprising campaign under head coach Mark Turgeon. There are a number of reasons for Maryland's continued stay near the top of the conference; the great play of junior Melo Trimble, the emergence of a quality group of newcomers, and a strong defense. Trimble had a wildly up-and-down 2016 but seems to have settled down in his third season in College Park, while he has been helped by Anthony Cowan and forward Justin Jackson, both freshmen. The key for Maryland the rest of the reason will be continuing their poised play, especially late in games, which has helped them win a ton of close games throughout the year. A tough three-game stretch that includes road matchups with Northwestern and Wisconsin before a home game against Minnesota could decide whether the Terps are ready to make a run at the conference's top spot, or merely be in the mix.
4. Northwestern Wildcats (18-6 overall, 7-4 conference)
Since a six game win streak that seemed to indicate Northwestern was ready to make a run at the conference title and an NCAA Tournament appearance, the Wildcats have dropped their last two to fall back to Earth. A 21-point loss to Purdue was immensely disappointing but even more frustrating was a seven-point loss to the struggling Illinois Fighting Illini. Those were both tough pills to swallow, and it puts significant pressure on the 'Cats over their next seven games. Considering three of those seven games include Purdue, Maryland and Wisconsin, it could be a very interesting end to the regular season in Evanston. Explosive guards Bryant McIntosh and Vic Law will have to play disciplined basketball, while also capitalizing on transition opportunities, something that has not been Northwestern's strength this year, but will be key to attacking any depth issues that may exist on the three teams above them in the conference standings. Although they may not be trending up, the Wildcats still have enough talent and experience to continue being a factor in the conference. If things go right, they could very well enter the conference tourney with a bye.
5. Minnesota Gophers (18-7 overall, 6-6 conference)
The Gophers aren't blowing out anyone, but a nine-point victory over Rutgers this weekend helping secure their third straight win, presumably helping them off the bubble (for the time being). Being able to close out games is definitely going to be the key for Minnesota as they progress through 2017. They have choked away games against Penn State, Wisconsin and Maryland that would have all helped their NCAA Tournament candidacy. The key to closing out games will hinge heavily on the play of point guard Nate Mason and whether the frontcourt can survive foul issues that have hurt them terribly at times. Minnesota's schedule the rest of the way isn't terrible, but they need to close out home games against beatable teams like Indiana, Michigan and Penn State to finish the year on a high note.
6. Michigan State Spartans (15-10 overall, 7-5 conference)
It is mid-February and March is fast approaching, usually around the time when Michigan State starts putting it altogether and looking like a Final Four-caliber squad. Yet, this year's MSU edition doesn't really have that feel to it. The Spartans have been playing better since conference play started but are still wildly inconsistent, and are coming off a 29-point loss to archrival Michigan just a few days ago. That makes them 15-10 with a relatively average 7-5 conference mark, and an NCAA Tournament bid not exactly guaranteed. That isn't to say this team doesn't have loads of talent and potential; true freshman Miles Bridges still struggles with decision-makers but is one of the best players in the conference when he is playing well, and fellow freshmen Cassius Winston and Nick Ward have played well. MSU gets Purdue, Wisconsin and Maryland all once before the regular season concludes, not to mention a meeting with Ohio State (who they have already lost to) in a Valentine's Day showing. That gives them ample opportunities to impress the NCAA Tournament Committee, but could also be very concerning if the team doesn't start showing some consistency.
7. Michigan Wolverines (16-9 overall, 6-6 conference)
Speaking about inconsistency, who knows what to make of Michigan at this point? The Wolverines post a pretty good record and are .500 in the conference, but have also struggled to beat some of the better teams in the conference. The good news is that the Wolverines are playing much better over the past couple games and their non-conference schedule looks a lot better than it once did (they beat SMU, who is on fire and threatening to win the AAC, and beat Marquette, who looks like an NCAA Tournament team). Also helping out UM is the fact they have a strong veteran core, including point guard Derrick Walton Jr., Zak Irvin and Duncan Robinson, something not a lot of other teams in the conference can boast. With that in mind, and their two toughest remaining games (Purdue and Wisconsin) being at home, this Wolverines team could be very dangerous down the stretch.
8. Penn State Nittany Lions (14-12 overall, 6-7 conference)
Penn State isn't going to be playing in the NCAA Tournament this year, but there is reason to be optimistic about PSU's future as we progress through the 2017 season. The Nittany Lions have played very well since conference play started, and two straight victories have them staring down a possible .500 conference mark, which is always impressive, even with the conference being down. Another reason to be optimistic is the fact the Nittany Lions best player has been freshman Tony Carr (12.5 PPG, 4.0 APG) and this team plays hard every night. Outside of Purdue, PSU's remaining schedule is not overly difficult, so a postseason bid of some sort could still very well be in play in State College.
9. Iowa Hawkeyes (14-12 overall, 6-7 conference)
It hasn't been surprising to see the Hawkeyes struggle at times this season, considering their veteran leadership they lost this off-season, but it should be comforting Iowa has played better down the stretch. They had won three straight at one point before dropping their last two to Minnesota and Michigan State, which shows they still have plenty of progress to make. Guard Peter Jok is legit, as the veteran is one of the Big Ten's best scorers, averaging 20.6 points per game, and underrated guard Jordan Bohannon is a great leader of the offense. Those two will have to play well down the stretch in order to give Iowa some much needed momentum entering the conference tourney.
10. Ohio State Buckeyes (15-11 overall, 5-8 conference)
After starting off conference play 0-4, the Buckeyes have been able to fix a season that was quickly going off the rails. They have been able to beat Michigan, Michigan State and Minnesota over the past few weeks, and look like they could be dangerous as the regular season wraps up. Explosive offensive weapons JaQuan Lyle and Jae'Sean Tate will continue to guide Ohio State's offense, but the search for a prominent big man is still underway in Columbus. Center Trevor Thompson is a great shot-blocker, but the lack of much beyond him in the paint has been a big issue for the Buckeyes. Even with that still in mind, this team is playing much better basketball, and has a head coach that knows how to win in the critical February and March months in Thad Matta. This team may not be going dancing, but they are certainly not a team I would want to play down the stretch.
11. Indiana Hoosiers (15-11 overall, 5-8 conference)
Has anybody taken a steeper fall from grace than Indiana over the past few months? The Hoosiers were thought of by some as a Final Four contender following wins over both Kansas and UNC in the non-conference but have been terrible since that point, and are a lowly 5-8 in the Big Ten. The reasons are understandable, O.G. Anuoby is hurt along with a number of other contributors, and big man Thomas Bryant has not taken the significant steps many had hoped he would following his sophomore season. Despite their recent struggles, their is still plenty to play for in Bloomington. Those victories over UNC and Kansas still make their resume pretty impressive, and they remain a bubble team. With the exception of a road test against Purdue, their schedule the rest of the way is not terrible. If they can regain some of the earlier-season magic, this team could be very intriguing as the season finishes.
12. Nebraska Cornhuskers (10-14 overall, 4-8 conference)
A 3-0 conference start seemed to indicate Nebraska could be a major wild card in the Big Ten in 2017. Then, a five-game losing streak, and here we are, the 'Huskers searching for any momentum. Overall, Nebraska has lost eight of nine, with their lone victory coming against Purdue in a thriller. Over the course of their struggles, they have definitely been competitive, losing three games by a single point. Yet, even that means little when you are losing at the rate they are. Nebraska doesn't face a ranked team the rest of the year and still has do-it-all guard Tai Webster, so there may be hope they can end the year playing well to give them some hope for next year.
13. Illinois Fighting Illini (14-12 overall, 4-9 conference)
While Indiana and Nebraska have tailed off, Illinois' struggles may even surpass them. The Illini were a bubble team not too long ago, but have lost seven of their last nine, likely pushing them out of the NCAA Tournament mix. During that span their offense has completely disappeared at times, with the low point occurring when they managed just 43 against Wisconsin. The Illini still have a star in guard/forward Malcolm Hill, but they have very little beyond him and no depth. They don't have a very difficult schedule remaining, so there is hope for this team, but if things don't turn around quickly, head coach John Groce's job may be on the line.
14. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (13-13 overall, 2-11 conference)
It definitely has not been a complete turnaround, but Rutgers has shown progress in head coach Steve Pikiell's first year. The Scarlet Knights recently beat Penn State to get their second conference win of the season, already more than they had last season, with time to do more. Guard Corey Sanders has provided plenty of offense, and is currently leading the team in points and assists, while center C.J. Gettys has been very good in the paint. Even so, the Scarlet Knights still lack the talent and depth necessary to really compete in the Big Ten, and there is plenty of work to be done. Yet, there is no denying there is something slowly being built in Piscataway.

Friday, February 10, 2017

Scouting the Contenders: Gonzaga Bulldogs

Nigel Williams-Goss
As March Madness slowly inches closer and closer, "Scouting the Contenders" takes a look at some of the nation's best teams in a chaotic race, and scouts their strengths and weaknesses and just how far they could go in the NCAA Tournament. We begin with the nation's current No. 1 team, the undefeated Gonzaga Bulldogs.

Track Record:

  • 25-0 record, 13-0 conference (West Coast Conference)
  • Notable Wins: 73-71 over Iowa State, 69-62 over Arizona, 79-56 over St. Mary's
  • Notable Losses: None
  • Only remaining undefeated in Division I basketball
Scouting Report: It is becoming a common theme up in Spokane, Washington. The Bulldogs may lose a good crop of veterans or future NBA contributors (Domantas Sabonis and Kyle Wiltjer recently) but always have former role players or transfers step up. The emergence of a number of newcomers has been the X-factor behind their flawless start. Washington transfer Nigel Williams-Goss is leading the team in scoring (15.8 PPG), assists and steals while shooting an efficient 51 percent from the field. Backcourt mates Jonathan Williams (Missouri) and Jordan Matthews (Cal) are also brand new to the Gonzaga rotation, but have brought immediate scoring punch to the lineup. Freshman Zach Collins has also been a revelation in his first season of college basketball. The seven-footer from Las Vegas is averaging 10.8 PPG and nearly six boards per game, and has really taken Wiltjer's role of a floor-stretching big. Then, there is a holdovers from last year's team, namely gigantic Przemek Karnowski and rock-solid sophomore Josh Perkins, who has played big minutes helping run the offense. Overall, 'Zaga has perhaps one of their most talented lineups in years, and one with incredible versatility. They have a good collections of slashers and attackers, mixed in with good shooters and quality size down low. Yet, even with that talent and a 25-0 start, there are a number of doubters of this No. 1 team, and probably for good reason. For years, Gonzaga has been the model of consistency in the sport, making every NCAA Tournament since Mark Few took over in 1999-2000. However, they haven't always excelled when they have gotten there. They have made one Elite Eight showing (as a two seed in 2014-2015, where they also spent time as No. 1) but have been unable to really take the next step. It isn't to say this team is perennial "chokers" that can't advance deep into the field, but it is tough to imagine them taking the next step this year with the vast amount of talent throughout the land. Others may point to their weak schedule, which always seems to be a detractor against the 'Zags. Iowa State and Arizona were two quality wins in the non-conference, but some could even argue those weren't great. Iowa State is no lock for the NCAA Tournament and is still on the bubble despite beating Kansas, and Arizona was extremely beat-up when Gonzaga beat them by seven. It doesn't help that the West Coast Conference is no power-conference. Saint Mary's appears to be a quality basketball team and Gonzaga shredded them by 23, which certainly does add an impressive victory. Yet, beyond the Gaels and perhaps BYU, there isn't a clear-cut postseason team in the conference. With those negatives in mind, Gonzaga knows they have to end their year on fire and in an impressive manner to really show the country what they can do before March arrives.

The Verdict: Few teams in college basketball can go to likely 18 straight NCAA Tournaments and win either the conference's regular or postseason title 16 of 17 years and still being looked at as a team with something to prove. But, Gonzaga is still trying to shred the label as the underdog and prove they belong in the conversation with the rest of the sport's bluebloods. To do that, they have to make a Final Four, and this could be the team to do just that. They have a very dangerous offense with a variety of different weapons and play sound, disciplined defense. They also appear to have the veteran leadership and confidence to survive the rigors of March and April. Yet, they have had teams that have seemingly had that in the past, including the last two years, and have come agonizingly close to a Final Four berth. With how tough this year's tournament will be (including likely one or two of the Pac-12 powers appearing in their bracket), my prediction would be an Elite Eight as the ceiling for this year's group. However, who knows, this could be the year Gonzaga finally puts it altogether when it matters the most and silences the doubters, much like Villanova just did last spring.

Tuesday, February 7, 2017

Is This the Year for Northwestern?

Scottie Lindsey
Just a few months ago, the Chicago Cubs ended a century-long streak of zero World Series titles,
showing that even the most invincible curse can be broken. Now, their neighbors in Evanston are trying to do something very similar.  Never in their 113-year history has Northwestern basketball made the NCAA Tournament. Yet, we are now into February, and the Wildcats have jumped to an 18-5 overall record, and a 7-3 mark in the Big Ten. It has been their best start in their history, and one that is sure to be remembered as a massive success, no matter the finish. But, the big question remains: can they actually do it? Is this really the year they finally qualify for the "Big Dance"?

Now in his fourth year, Chris Collins has done a marvelous job with the Wildcats. The son of NBA coaching legend Doug Collins, Chris inherited a roster that had some talent, but some serious holes. Former head coach Bill Carmody had shown you could win at Northwestern, making four NIT appearances in his tenure, ranging from 2000-2013. However, even with the talent level rising, Northwestern never made the Tournament under his watch. This team still lacked experience, leadership and upside to survive the rugged Big Ten. All of those things appear to be present on the 2017 squad. Junior Bryant McIntosh wasn't a highly touted recruit, but has led the offense to new heights, with averages of 13.2 PPG, 5.6 APG and 91% from the free throw line. Dynamic wings Scottie Lindsey (leading scorer with 15.4 PPG) and Vic Law have given the offense plenty of explosiveness and diversity. Rock-solid Sanjay Lumpkin isn't an elite scorer but rebounds the ball extremely well and gives the team energy. And, despite some losses down low, this team still has plenty of potential to be a great low-post team, which is so critical in such a physical conference. Overall, the lineup packs a fair bit of punch, which is something you couldn't always say about Northwestern. When McIntosh is playing smart and controlled, and Law and Lindsey are knocking down shots from the perimeter to open things up, this is a team that can score and play with anybody in the country.

That isn't to say Northwestern does not have any flaws, because they certainly do. First off, for all the good things the backcourt does, it is extremely turnover prone. McIntosh is an elite-level playmaker, but makes a lot of dumb decisions trying to create those plays, and the offense as a whole doesn't handle pressure very well. Something to also take note of is their lack of depth. It is very hard to find any college basketball team with veterans and studs throughout their lineups, but the Wildcats is thinner than most. Their starters average a crazy sum of minutes, and they don't have much options off the bench, which isn't a great formula for the tough play of March and April. Perhaps most notable is the lack of a true go-to option down low. As I mentioned, there is plenty of upside and potential down the line for the frontcourt, but the group is experiencing major growing pains. Center Alex Olah (now graduated) wasn't a superstar, but was terrific defensively and off the pic-and-roll, something that is mostly absent on the 2017 edition.

The Big Ten is down this season by its normal standards. Outside of Purdue and Wisconsin (and possibly Maryland), there is not really a team that scares you. Northwestern is certainly trying to fill that role, but they have to also deal with the reputation of the conference. We will get a good indication on what the Selection Committee thinks of the conference when they unveil their rankings at that point in the season later on, but the conference is not great, which could hurt Northwestern in a number of ways. It might not give them the competition experience they need to survive in March and could hurt their resume if they do end up on the bubble. Hurting Northwestern right now as well is the lack of a real, high-quality non-conference victory. They beat then-ranked No. 22 Texas earlier but the Longhorns have really fallen off, making a win over bubble-team Dayton their signature victory, which is not altogether comforting.

For all the negatives that may exist, lets appreciate the team's rise. They played good basketball over the first three seasons of the Collins era, but this is really the first team they are a serious contender. They have as much backcourt scoring as you can get, and can still score in plenty of ways, while showing they can go on the road and also hang with anyone. Right now, to say they won't make the NCAA Tournament is bold, but maybe not absurd. They are in very good position, and their schedule gets very light once they get past a two-game stretch against Wisconsin and Maryland. I hate to jinx anything, but there is a different feeling to this year's Northwestern. They can legitimately play 40 minutes with just about anyone, and they have as much fight and heart as anybody in the country. If things go right, I envision them as not only an NCAA Tournament team, but one that could do plenty of damage once they get there.

Wednesday, February 1, 2017

Which College Basketball Head Coaches Are on the Hottest Seats?

Lorenzo Romar, Washington
We have now reached February, and are deep enough into the college basketball season that we know what we have in each team. While some have asserted themselves as clear-cut contenders, others are merely attempting to take some positives away from the season. With each season ends, the perennial discussion of head coaches on the hot seat takes center stage? Which coaches' seats may be burning up and what does their future hold? I break down the hottest seats in the sport, and what they need to do to save their jobs.

Kim Anderson, Missouri 
Since taking over for Frank Haith once he left for Tulsa, Anderson has struggled mightily in Columbia, Missouri. Anderson led Central Missouri to tremendous success over a lengthy tenure there, and many assumed his recruiting abilities would translate well to a higher level. That has not been the close, at all. The Tigers are 24-59 under his leadership, including a 5-15 mark so far this season. Even more concerning is the 6-38 mark inside an SEC not known for their basketball pedigree, and two last place finishes.
What He Needs To Do: It would take a miracle to save Anderson's job at this point. Missouri has never been a basketball power, but they were very competitive for years in the Big 12, so this program has to know they can win. A few big wins may be enough for the athletic department to think about keeping Anderson for a fourth year, but it is unlikely.

Lorenzo Romar, Washington
It has been five years since Washington last made the NCAA Tournament, and as of now, it looks like it will be six (the Huskies are 9-12, 2-7 in conference). Yet, Lorenzo Romar still finds himself roaming the sidelines in Seattle, and there isn't much of a secret why. Romar has consistently been able to reel in big-name recruits, despite the team's struggles. Marquese Chriss, Dejounte Murray and Markelle Fultz are some of the wonderful NBA prospects he has led under his watch, and more appear on the horizon. Despite the talent he has coached, there is no denying UW has underachieved under Romar in a big way and his seat just keeps burning.
What He Needs To Do: Keep on recruiting. It isn't much of a secret Romar would be gone by now if he wasn't bringing in superstar recruits, so he simply has to keep doing it and hope some day it will translate to a tourney appearance. Romar is already proving he can do this, landing one of the best players in the 2017 Class, Michael Porter Jr. With Porter coming in next season and a massive buyout, it isn't unreasonable to believe Romar could keep the job, even with the team's immense struggles.

Johnny Jones, LSU
When Ben Simmons opted to head to LSU over other basketball bluebloods, many were surprised. Why would Simmons head to Baton Rouge to play for Jones, when he could have his choice of future Hall of Famers such as John Calipari, Coach K or Tom Izzo? It was Jones' chance to prove he could coach the highest talent and keep on winning. Things were far from a perfect fit. Simmons played well, but the Tigers struggled, and despite some great moments missed the NCAA Tournament. Simmons is gone, and the pressure has only grown for Jones. The Tigers are 9-9 this season, and have one conference victory. Overall, Jones is 89-60 with LSU, but has made just one NCAA Tournament appearance in four years to this point.
What He Needs To Do: The Tigers are not completely devoid of talent, and the future could still be bright for this team. Jones must continue to recruit the talent-rich areas of the Southeast, while also showing the program is still making progress. A tourney appearance this season may be out of the question but beating a few rivals and finishing close to .500 in conference would be a major improvement.

John Thompson III, Georgetown
Would Georgetown really fire the son of the program's patriarch? There is a chance, especially with the way the Hoyas are trending. In 12 seasons, John Thompson III has made eight NCAA Tournament appearances, including a Final Four berth in 2007 behind the play of Roy Hibbert. However, the Hoyas have slipped significantly since then. They went 15-18 last season, and are 13-10 this season, with a sub-.500 Big East record. Not helping JT3's case is the fact the Hoyas have consistently choked when they do get to the Tournament. They haven't advanced to the Sweet 16 since that 2007 season, and have consistently underperformed.
What He Needs To Do: Georgetown has been playing much better as of late, with three straight victories, including two against ranked teams. If they can continue that type of play, a postseason berth is a real possibility. However, that doesn't change the questions that surround the program. Recruiting isn't what it used to be, they haven't been a serious contender for awhile, and the great program has definitely taken a step back. Thompson will get time to show he can turn things around, but the target on his back will keep growing if he doesn't quickly develop some of the youthful talent on their roster.

John Groce, Illinois
New Illinois athletic director Josh Whitman assured Groce's job was safe after his interesting move to fire head football coach Bill Cubit and swing for the fences with former Bears and Buccaneers head coach Lovie Smith. While he may be openly saying that, one has to question his Groce's future. Groce arrived from Ohio with a Tournament appearance in 2012-2013, but has gone downhill since. After two consecutive NIT bids, Illinois missed the postseason altogether last season, and is in danger of doing the same in '16-'17. Groce is 90-69 in his tenure, which isn't terrible, but he hasn't had a winning season in the conference since he arrived. Unless that changes, it is hard to believe he has much of a future in Champaign.
What He Needs To Do: The Big Ten is the weakest it has been in years, which obviously bodes well for the Illini. Sitting at 3-5 in the conference at the moment, Illinois could still string together a couple wins and push themselves to the top-half of the position. If they do that, they could be a bubble NCAA Tournament team or land themselves in the NIT, which would not be a terrible consolation.