 |
| Keaton Wagler, Illinois |
(Updated through: morning of 2/10/26)
1. Michigan Wolverines
Previous Ranking: 1
Despite one of the most impressive starts to the season in program history, there was some question how Dusty May's Michigan Wolverines would respond when they did face adversity during the Big Ten schedule. The last month, we've gotten our answer. After dropping their first game of the season in a shocker to Wisconsin in mid-January, the Wolverines have simply ripped off eight straight wins, including a pair of them over Top 10 teams, and remain perched as the clear favorite in a loaded league. It hasn't been close wins either - of those eight straight victories, seven have been in the double digits. The race to the No. 1 overall seed come Selection Sunday is on, and this team has plenty of opportunities to pad their resume. Aside from road games with Purdue and Illinois, plus a date with Michigan State in Crisler Center, the non-conference battle with Duke in "The Duel in the District" looms as one of the most anticipated games of the year.
2. Illinois Fighting Illini
Previous Ranking: 6
Several teams have been vying to be the greatest threat to Michigan inside the Big Ten, but it's Illinois alone as second in the conference at 11-2 as things stand today. The loss over the weekend to Michigan State snaps a 12-game winning streak, but it's hard to take any major conclusion aways from that game. The Illini shot the ball poorly, at just 37% from the field, and still took the Spartans to overtime in East Lansing. The difference for this Illini team over the past month has been freshman phenom Keaton Wagler, who has been one of the best players in the country in recent weeks. The 46-point outburst to beat Purdue was the main highlight, but Wagler hasn't slowed down. In fact, his performance against Nebraska may have been even more impressive, as he not only dropped 28 points, but added five assists and five boards. His play has completely overshadowed the fact Illinois has been without steady lead guard Kylan Boswell for the past month, who is recovering from a broken hand. The expectation is that Boswell is going to return over the next couple weeks, further bolstering a team that seems to be getting better each and every week. Boswell's return is going to be huge down the stretch not only because of his experience, but his defense. As good as Wagler has been and as good as Andrej Stojakovic can be, the Illini really need his perimeter defense if this is the year they finally make a March run.
3. Nebraska Cornhuskers
Previous Ranking: 3
If there was any question Nebraska's hot start to the season was merely a fluke or the result of a soft non-conference slate, the Cornhuskers have certainly silenced those doubts. Fred Hoiberg's team is 21-2 overall and 10-2 in one of the most difficult conferences in America. And the two losses? They came to the two top teams in the conference in Michigan and Illinois, both of them in competitive games. This team is still very much playing for a Big Ten Title, and it's not crazy to think they have a legitimate shot at a No. 1 seed as we get deeper into February. They've been commonly on the two-seed line for much of the season, but have been helped by Illinois and Michigan State (their best two wins) both helping strengthen their resume. Even better, Nebraska has one of the most favorable remaining schedules in the Big Ten, with a home game against Purdue this week standing as their lone remaining ranked foe. This has been an incredible story in Lincoln, but something tells me it's done just yet. This Cornhuskers team has a lot to play for down the stretch.
4. Michigan State Spartans
Previous Ranking: 4
This is far from Tom Izzo's most talented team in East Lansing, but this team has proven themselves time and time again on the season. They're 20-4 overall and now 10-3 in the league after a huge weekend win against Illinois. And, the resume is strong - aside from a road defeat to Minnesota, all three losses have come against Quad 1 teams. There's plenty of valid reasons to not like Jeremy Fears Jr. given some of the questionable on-court moments he's had in recent weeks, but there is no question he is the type of elite lead guard every great Izzo team needs. Not only does he lead Michigan State in scoring, his 9.1 assists per game have paced a Spartan team with a lot of scoring options. The defense has also been impressive, with Fears being the pest on the perimeter, and the combo of Jaxon Kohler and Carson Cooper swallowing up opponents in the post. I'm not sure this is a team necessarily with Final Four potential, but it's certainly a second weekend team, and they're going to be a tough out for anybody they play the remainder of the season.
5. Purdue Boilermakers
Previous Ranking: 2
This feels far, far too low for a team of Purdue's caliber. There's little doubt in my mind this Boilermaker team still has National Title potential, and I suspect they'll finish the season strong. But, the fact of the matter is they've looked surprisingly vulnerable in recent weeks and have dropped to 9-3 inside the league. Road defeats to UCLA and Indiana, while understandable given the rugged nature of the league, showed there's still work to do for Matt Painter and team. Even the wins haven't been super encouraging, as they got all they could handle this past weekend from an Oregon team currently just battling to stay out of the Big Ten cellar. We see good teams go through lulls like this week all the time, but it does feel like Purdue really needs more from their backcourt if they are going to wrestle their way back into National Title contention. Braden Smith is one of the best floor generals in the country, and an elite distributor, but can he elevate his scoring? More important to me is Fletcher Loyer, who may make or break the season for the Boilermakers. When he's on, there are few guards not just in the Big Ten but in the nation who can take over games quite like he can. But beyond that, what his shooting can bring is so important to this offense in their spacing and overall rhythm. When he draws defenses to the perimeter with his shooting, he opens up so much driving space for Smith, and provides Trey Kaufman-Renn and Oscar Cluff the padding they need in the paint. Nebraska this week isn't exactly an ideal "get right" game for the Boilermakers, but it does provide the opportunity for them to regain confidence and get rolling again if they are able to come out victorious.
6. Wisconsin Badgers
Previous Ranking: 12
Since a 16-point defeat at home to Purdue, the Wisconsin Badgers are playing as well as anyone in the Big Ten. The Michigan win was perhaps the most impressive victory by any team in the league to this point in the season, made all the more impressive by the fact it was in Ann Arbor. It's part of a nine-game streak in which the Badgers have won seven games, with the two losses coming by a combined three points. Nick Boyd and John Blackwell have given the Badgers one of the most fearsome backcourts in the league, but this team's ceiling may hinge on the continued production from the frontcourt. Nolan Winter remains inconsistent, but makes all the difference for this team when he's playing well. If he continues playing well, this is a Badger team that can really move up the seed lines as Selection Sunday inches closer. Once they get past Michigan State and Illinois over the next week, not a single ranked foe is on their schedule.
7. UCLA Bruins
Previous Ranking: 7
Mick Cronin has made pointed comments about UCLA's early Big Ten schedule given just how much the team has traveled over the first month-and-a-half of league play. It is without a doubt a huge factor in a sport like basketball, with such limited rest and benches that typically only go a few players deep. Unfortunately, it's not exactly smoothing sailing for the Bruins the rest of the way, as they face down three straight ranked opponents: both Michigan schools on the road, and back to Westwood for Illinois. Add in a two-game series with crosstown rival USC still on the schedule, plus Nebraska, it's going to be interesting to see how the Bruins handle the adversity. Cronin teams always battle, and Donovan Dent and Tyler Bilodeau give them quite the leading combo. This team could surprise folks if they're able to get enough rest for some fresher legs down the stretch.
8. Iowa Hawkeyes
Previous Ranking: 5
A three-game skid in mid-January threatened to completely derail Ben McCollum's debut campaign in Iowa City, but the Hawkeyes have responded in impressive fashion. They've ripped off six straight wins - albeit mostly against competition that finds itself near the bottom of the Big Ten standings. To continue that upwards trajectory against the top of the conference, it really does feel like someone has to emerge beyond Bennett Stirtz. As amazing as the lead guard is, he's been carrying the entire offensive load all season long, and it's hard to imagine it's a strategy that will work against the true elites in this conference. Veteran Tavion Banks has had his moments, but can he put it together more consistently? He feels like the only other player on this roster that can reliably create his own shot.
9. USC Trojans
Previous Ranking: 8
The Trojans find themselves firmly on the bubble as things stand in mid-February, but the addition of highly touted freshman guard Alijah Arenas looks like the type of development that could change the entire trajectory of USC's season. Arenas, the son of former NBA All-Star Gilbert, missed the first two months of the season before making his collegiate debut on January 21. After some understandable early struggles, he's now put together back-to-back 20 point games, with 29 against Indiana and 24 against Penn State. Even better, the freshman is doing more than just scoring, impacting games on the defensive end and creating opportunities for his teammates. He has superstar potential, and Eric Mussleman teams are always scary with a youthful quick guard leading the offense like him. Much like UCLA, if the Trojans can survive a brutal travel schedule, this is a team I would buy stock in to finish strong over the next month of the regular season.
10. Indiana Hoosiers
Previous Ranking: 11
A controversial win over the weekend against Wisconsin boosted Indiana's NCAA Tournament hopes and was quickly followed with a home win over Oregon, getting the Hoosiers to over .500 inside the league. It does feel like Indiana has done about what was expected in the debut season for Darian DeVries as head coach. They've beaten who they should and generally lost to who they were expected to, with the upset over Purdue standing as the notable exception. The good news is that the offense has continued to get better, with Lamar Wilkerson asserting himself as one of the most lethal go-to scorers inside the Big Ten. Can the Hoosiers stop enough teams on the defensive end to make that offense worth it? The Purdue game was the model, a game where the Hoosiers slowed things down and played the grinding style of basketball we came to know DeVries for when he was at Drake. Road trips to Illinois and back against the Boilermakers await, before the schedule lightens up significantly.
11. Ohio State Buckeyes
Previous Ranking: 9
Jake Diebler's Buckeyes have a respectable 15-8 overall record and a respectable 7-6 record inside the Big Ten, but still seem to be on the wrong side of the bubble as we inch towards Selection Sunday. The Buckeyes don't have any terrible losses, but they're short on big wins, too. In fact, they're 0-7 against Quad 1 teams, including an ugly 19-point loss at home to Michigan this past Sunday. This feels like a team that, much like Iowa, needs more consistency from the rest of the roster beyond their star, who in this case is Bruce Thornton. Thornton has been doing it all, and there's a lack of consistency from the rest of the roster that makes it difficult to feel particularly encouraged about this team taking advantage of a tricky remaining schedule. With all due respect to Puff Johnson, who was a strange, controversial midseason addition, I'm not sure he's the fix.
12. Minnesota Golden Gophers
Previous Ranking: 10
If college basketball games were simply 20-minute games, the Minnesota Golden Gophers could be among the best in the Big Ten. Niko Medved's team has a frustrating tendency to start off games hot, taking leads into halftime against teams like Wisconsin (twice), Illinois, and Nebraska. Unfortunately, their complete lack of depth is such a clear disadvantage late in games, when it's clear they don't have the legs to overcome fresher teams the other way. It's not a Medved issue - the Gophers have had rotten luck, with four key players, including multiple starters, being lost for the season. And, given the circumstances, the team has shown real fight to even be competitive in some of their games, including a huge recent win over Michigan State. The schedule the rest of the way is promising, even with a West Coast road trip to Oregon and Washington, and a trek to Ann Arbor still on the docket. There's no postseason berth likely in the cards in the Twin Cities this year, but if the Gophers can finish strong, there's real hope Medved is ther right guy to bring them back to the NCAA Tournament next winter.
13. Washington Huskies
Previous Ranking: 13
After a long debut season for Danny Sprinkle last season, there's no denying Washington has made real progress in Year Two. Nobody is throwing a parade in Seattle for a .500 overall record and 4-9 mark inside the Big Ten, but the team has looked much improved and competitive inside the conference. Unfortunately, six losses in their last eight games have dimmed any hopes of a postseason run, but the Huskies have to be thinking if they end the season strong, their could be brighter days ahead in 2026-27. Forward Hannes Steinbach has been a revelation as a freshman from Germany, and should be a long-term building block for Sprinkle if the Huskies can pay up enough to keep him in town. Steinbach is averaging a double-double, 17.5 PPG and 11.2 RPG, while shooting over 54% from the field. His 22-point game against Northwestern was the type of game you have to be excited about as a Washington fan. Not only did he score 22, he grabbed 14 boards and made three of his four three attempts, a sign of potential things to come in Seattle.
14. Northwestern Wildcats
Previous Ranking: 15
It gets pretty ugly down here near the bottom of the league but if there is a team that is worth tuning in for, it's got to be Northwestern for the Nick Martinelli factor alone. Martinelli is not just the Big Ten's scoring leader, averaging nearly 23 points per contest, he truly does it all for the Wildcats. He's their top rebounder and a stingy defender, and does so well shooting impressive numbers from everywhere on the court. It's a shame Martinelli's career will almost surely come to a conclusion in the next month, but he's worth watching every bit of when he's still around. It's rare at this level you see a three-level scorer of his caliber so polished coming out of college, particularly when you consider he is far from the most athletic player on the court.
15. Maryland Terrapins
Previous Ranking: 18
It's been a less than ideal start to the Buzz Williams era in College Park, as the Terrapins currently sit 9-14 overall and a lowly 2-10 in the conference. However, a win this past weekend over Minnesota showed this Maryland team is still fighting, even if the cards are stacked against them. Losing Pharrel Payne has been a gut punch, and the Terps have struggled to find any offense all season, ranking near the bottom of the conference in every major statistical offensive category. There is some hope that senior David Coit found something with a 29-point outburst against Minnesota, despite coming off the bench. Coit has been a baffling player to watch - as often as he disappears for long stretches, he's had some truly jaw-dropping offensive performances. In addition to the 29 against the Gophers, he dropped 43 in their only other Big Ten win over Penn State, 30 against USC, 31 against Michigan, and 41 earlier in the season against Mount St. Mary's. I'm not sure he's going to turn around Maryland's season, but he could give us reason to tune in as the Terps look for any bright spots on a lost season.
16. Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Previous Ranking: 17
There's not a lot of positives going on at Rutgers right now, where they're in the midst of a seven game losing streak. Even their two Big Ten wins came against teams lowly conference foes in Oregon and Northwestern. You do have to start to wonder about head coach Steve Pikiell and his job security moving forward, with the Scarlet Knights guaranteed to miss the NCAA Tournament for a fourth straight year and the postseason completely for a third straight. Pikiell did a great job restoring respectability to a program that had some very lean years early on and after their transition to the Big Ten, but the results have gotten worse each year since 2021. Will scraping together a few more wins be good enough to earn him an eleventh year in charge in Piscataway? Facing Penn State two more times on the remaining regular season certainly helps.
17. Oregon Ducks
Previous Ranking: 14
Dana Altman is one of the best basketball coaches in the Big Ten, with a resume to match. Unfortunately, he can only do so much when a team is bitten by the injury bug as badly as the Ducks have been this winter. Jackson Shelstad is the most significant loss, with the lead guard being out for the past month-and-half, but not being 100 percent for essentially the whole season. Center Nate Bittle has also missed significant time, although his return in the past two games gives Oregon a fighting chance the rest of the way. Key reserves like Ege Demir and Devon Pryor have also been shut down for the year, crippling any depth on this Duck roster. This team is still playing hard, and Bittle's return had them pushing Purdue to the final whistle over the weekend. But the reality is that Altman and team will be happy to close the page on 2025-26 in short order, with an eye towards a resurgence next winter.
18. Penn State Nittany Lions
Previous Ranking: 16
Speaking of coaches on a hot seat, does Mike Rhoades get a fourth season in Happy Valley? Rhoades has faced difficult circumstances during his time with the Nittany Lions, as the personnel has turned over in a major way every offseason. But Penn State is currently dead last in the league at 1-12, after a pair of seasons in which they went 16-17 and 16-15. This will always be a football school, and given what the Nittany Lions had to pay to move on from James Franklin and hire Campbell, it may end up saving Rhoades. Much like others in this spot in the rankings, the best you can hope for here are some positives down the stretch, with the hopes it can provide the much-needed momentum for brighter days in 2026-27.
No comments:
Post a Comment