Julian Sayin, Ohio State
Current Picks Record: 63-44
Upset: 5-10
Superdogs: 5-4
Locks: 6-6
(#3) Texas A&M Aggies @ (#16) Texas Longhorns
Line: Texas A&M -2.5
O/U: 52.5
Last season, Texas and their stingy defense shut down Texas A&M in their first game in a decade-and-a-half en route to a SEC Championship Game appearance. This year, instead it's the Aggies in position to compete for a conference title and eventual Playoff berth. Still, A&M is out to prove they are worthy of their high ranking, and going into Austin and beating the Longhorns would go a long way in proving their legitimacy.
Marcel Reed has proven a lot of people wrong this season, and his performance in the South Carolina win two weeks ago was potentially his most impressive yet. Reed, and A&M as a whole, had an atrocious first half, with multiple turnovers and nearly multiple more. Instead of mailing it in during the second half, Reed responded in a major way, fueling the Aggies to an epic comeback and finishing with 439 passing yards and three touchdowns. Now, Reed is looking to keep the magic going against a tough Longhorn defense, albeit one that has struggled to defend the pass at points this fall. Reed has plenty of help, namely K.C. Concepcion and Mario Craver out wide, plus several options in the backfield. Being without veteran Le'Veon Moss at tailback hurts, but the likes of Rueben Owens and Amari Daniels, plus Reed's legs, give this A&M rushing attack just enough bite. I'm watching the A&M offensive line closely, too - they were pushed around by this Texas defensive front last fall and face a stiff challenge once again. The Longhorns are nasty along the line of scrimmage, and have to be fired up for this type of rivalry game. As impressive as Reed has been, if Texas is able to pressure him and contain this ground game, you do wonder if we are going to see Reed start to press. A huge turnover or two in a game like this, that could come down to the wire, could ultimately make all the difference. The Longhorn secondary is banged up and vulnerable, but it's up to Reed to set up this Aggie offense for success.
Was the Arkansas win last weekend finally what the Texas offense needed to finish a disappointing season on a high note? It feels like we've been waiting all season long for the Longhorns to get going on this side of the ball, but they remain frustratingly inconsistent. They have looked good against the worst of the SEC defenses, but can it carry over to a well-coached, disciplined group like A&M? Arch Manning does feel like he's found something during the season's second half, even if there remain growing pains week-to-week. Yet, Manning has been far from the sole problem for this Longhorn offense this fall. On the contrary, the rushing offense and offensive line have been immensely disappointing. Even in wins, the Longhorns have struggled to get anything going on the ground, and it's made this team completely one-dimensional. The offensive line has struggled to get any push, even against defenses you'd imagine they'd have an advantage over. Now, they face an A&M front that includes sack machine Cashius Howell and several other players likely to play on Sundays, including Dayon Hayes and Tyler Onyedim. Quintrevion Wisner ran for 186 yards for Texas last year in this matchup, but I don't envision that happening again. It truly does feel like A&M is going to have the better athletes on the field Saturday, a stark difference to what we saw a season ago.
At multiple points this fall, I've expected A&M to get caught by someone and yet here they are, sitting at 11-0 with a Playoff berth essentially clinched. This is a game the old A&M would lose, but this team just feels different. They aren't just the better team, they've proven an ability to overcome adversity and still come out on top on the other side. With Texas being so inconsistent, the Aggies are the smarter pick here, even on the road.
The Pick: Texas A&M, 34 Texas, 24
(#1) Ohio State Buckeyes @ (#15) Michigan Wolverines
Line: Ohio State -9.5
O/U: 43.5
Perhaps no result all last season was more shocking than Ohio State's defeat at the hands of Michigan. Of course, it ended up being a silver lining for the Buckeyes, who would use the loss as motivation for a miraculous National Title run. This fall, the goal is different - Ohio State is now the clear national favorite, and could knock the Wolverines out of the CFB Playoff hunt completely.
While Ohio State is chasing the ultimate goal, Buckeye quarterback Julian Sayin is on his own quest, this one for the Heisman Trophy. The first-year starter has looked in complete command of the offense since Day One for the Buckeyes, with nearly 3,000 yards through the air and 27 touchdown passes. Most impressive is his consistency - it feels like every single week, we watch Sayin tear apart defenses effortlessly. With that being said, it does feel like he is still missing a true "Heisman moment" and going on the road to take down Michigan could offer quite the opportunity. To help out, Sayin will have Jeremiah Smith, Carnell Tate and tight end Max Klare to throw the ball to, while Bo Jackson and company keep the Wolverine defense honest against the run. Smith and Tate have been banged up in recent weeks, but was that more a caution to keep this pair fresh for another long Playoff run? Klare has really shown out with Smith and Tate sidelined, and has a chance to take advantage with so much focus on these pass-catchers. It will be interesting to see how Wink Martindale and this Michigan defense choose to play the Buckeyes. They were able to dominate the line of scrimmage last year, but it does feel like Ohio State is going to look to air it out and see what they can do down the field. We may see more scoring than the over/under seems to indicate.
Unsurprisingly given they are starting a true freshman quarterback, the Michigan offense has been predicated around the ground attack. Unfortunately, Justice Haynes is out for the season, and the other top option in the backfield, Jordan Marshall, missed last week's game. The expectation is that Marshall is going to be back and ready to go for this one, but the Wolverines may still have to be creative in how they move the football against a vaunted Ohio State defense. Junior Bryson Kuzdzal was the feature back last weekend in the win over Maryland, rushing for 100 yards and three touchdowns, but the Buckeyes will of course be a different beast completely than the Terrapins. The reality is that there is going to be outsized pressure on true freshman QB Bryce Underwood, who was already under the pressure of his first ever start in this rivalry series. Underwood hasn't put up gaudy stats but he has been impressive for the Wolverines, especially considering just how miserable this offense looked like when he wasn't under center last season. His running ability have given this Michigan offense an interesting element, and they will take the occasional shot down the field as needed, something they didn't have a year ago. But, a win from the Wolverines this season is likely to require an all-time Underwood performance, considering what he's facing on the other side. This is an Ohio State defense that may go down in school history as one of their best ever, and they'll be extra fired up for this matchup. Unless Underwood forces them to, you have to believe they'll stack the box and force Michigan to throw the ball out of their usual rhythm. The Wolverines were able to get the Buckeyes to play their game last season, and that's why they came out victorious. I don't expect that to be the case this time around.
This has been one of the most impressive follow-up seasons to a National Title of all-time from Ohio State. They've dominated their competition with what appears to be relative ease, with both sides of the ball playing at an unbelievable level. Defeating Michigan, who has had Ryan Day's number over the last several seasons, is the next challenge, and one this Ohio State team appears capable of. They have learned their lessons from last year and are far, far too good to drop it this time.
The Pick: Ohio State, 27 Michigan, 17
Other Picks
(#4) Georgia Bulldogs @ (#23) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets -- Another edition of a "Clean, Old Fashioned Hate" after last year's game was among the best of the entire regular season. Georgia Tech has a chance to move the ball over a surprisingly pedestrian Georgia defense, but is there any chance they stop the Bulldog offense the other way?
The Pick: Georgia, 38 Georgia Tech, 24
(#10) Alabama Crimson Tide @ Auburn Tigers -- You can throw the records out whenever these two collide in the Iron Bowl, but I have a hard time believing Alabama will slip up in Jordan Hare. The Tide are right on the cusp of the CFB Playoff, and face an Auburn team expected to start Ashton Daniels at quarterback.
The Pick: Alabama, 30 Auburn, 21
(#12) Miami Hurricanes @ (#22) Pittsburgh Panthers -- Pitt always plays a great spoiler, but do they have the offensive line to withstand this relentless Miami pass rush? As long as Carson Beck can take care of the ball, I like Miami's chances to hit the 10-win plateau.
The Pick: Miami, 27 Pittsburgh, 24
Wisconsin Badgers @ Minnesota Golden Gophers -- This one pains me. All of the sudden, Wisconsin is playing as well as anyone in the Big Ten, with a pair of ranked wins over the last few weeks behind a flaming hot defense. Meanwhile, Minnesota can't stop anyone, and remains a confusing watch on offense. This feels like a game where Wisconsin can make it ugly and ride the momentum to a tight win.
The Pick: Wisconsin, 13 Minnesota, 10
Upset: (#13) Utah Utes @ Kansas Jayhawks -- Four losses in their last five games have Kansas trending down, and likely out of bowl contention. But, this team has long played a spoiler role in this conference under Lance Leipold, and they do get Utah at home. If they can make the stops in the critical junctures, I like the upset potential of the Jayhawks.
The Pick: Kansas, 31 Utah, 28
Superdog (covers > 21 point spread): UCLA Bruins (+22.5) @ USC Trojans -- The midseason run UCLA went on after firing Deshaun Foster has flamed out. Yet, the Bruins can still be feisty, and the Trojans have flaws of their own. I could see this one being tight deep into the second half, in arguably one of the best uniform matchups in all of the land.
The Pick: USC, 35 UCLA, 20
Lock of the Week: Iowa Hawkeyes (-6) vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers -- Iowa has been a frustrating pick for me this season, but this is an ideal matchup for them. Nebraska is struggling mightily, has a backup quarterback starting, and has struggled along the lines of scrimmage. Iowa is going to be relentless on defense, but it's up to the offense to cover this spread.
The Pick: Iowa, 24 Nebraska, 13
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