College Football Picks 2024: Week Fourteen

Marcel Reed, Texas A&M

 

Current Picks Record: 68-39

Upsets: 5-9

Superdogs: 6-4

(#3) Texas Longhorns @ (#20) Texas A&M Aggies

Line: Texas -5.5

O/U: 48.5 

It's back! After a decade-and-a-half of being dead, the "Lone Star Showdown" between Texas and Texas A&M returns this weekend and has serious implications. The game may not only decide who ends up in the SEC Championship Game, it will have a significant impact on the College Football Playoff race as we hit the home stretch of the regular season. As if the return of the rivalry wasn't reason enough to tune in, such an important game should provide plenty of entertainment this Saturday.

Texas enters the game as winners of four straight contests, but there are questions for the Longhorns as they prepare for the weekend. Quarterback Quinn Ewers injured his ankle in the win over Kentucky last weekend, and has been dealing with a mild sprain throughout the week. The assumption is that he'll still start as normal, but it's unfortunate timing as the Longhorns prepare for their most important game of the regular season. It would not be surprising if we do see some of Arch Manning, even if it's in designed packages. Either way, Texas could certainly use help from a supporting cast that has had an up-and-down fall, despite the offensive success. Quintrevion Wisner and Jaydon Blue remain an effective duo out of the backfield, but they do face down an imposing A&M defensive front, one that should be extra motivated by the bright lights of the rivalry game. On the outside, Texas has struggled to find a consistent No. 1 all season, as they've sorely missed Xavier Worthy's playmaking. Matthew Golden has emerged as their most reliable weapon over the past month and Isaiah Bond is a home run hitter, but it will be interesting to see whether the duo show up for this one. Tight end Gunnar Helm is actually the team's leading receiver and should play a pivotal role in the underneath stuff, which could help expose A&M over-the-top. That has to be a concern for the Aggies, who have suffered breakdowns on the back end in the last few weeks we weren't used to seeing early on this fall. Now, Texas doesn't have a Cam Coleman like Auburn did last Saturday, but Mike Elko and this staff have to figure out what went wrong and adjust quickly. We've seen Ewers show out in these types of games and with his arm, one or two deep balls could change the entire complexion of this rivalry game. 

Although they ended up putting 41 points on the board in the loss to Auburn last weekend, A&M has to be feeling like they could have done even more after a dropped pass by Amari Daniels in the end zone prevented them from sending it into another overtime. That should give this offense even more reason to come out firing, and they've really turned the page down the stretch after taking time to gel early on this season. Marcel Reed has solidified his role as the starting quarterback over Conner Weigman, with Reed playing with a poise and maturity well beyond his years. There are still occasionally the questionable decisions, but he has put the Aggies consistently in a position to win, and shouldn't be intimidated at all by this Texas defense. That doesn't mean we should expect A&M to be chucking the ball all over the field - their bread and butter remains their efficient ground game. However, the Aggies do seem to be getting more comfortable going vertical with this offense as Reed has gained more experience, and the rhythm of this passing attack with Noah Thomas looked awfully impressive a week ago. The Longhorn defense poses an interesting challenge - despite the departures they took in their front seven over the offseason, they've been stout up front, setting the tone for the entire defense. A&M is a much more physical and athletic team than they've seen for some time, probably since the Georgia game, when the Bulldogs were pretty beat up on the offensive line. This is going to have the real feel of an SEC contest, with these two duking it out in the trenches, and the athletes on both sides of the ball are vastly different than what we became accustomed to all those years in the Big 12.

Not only is it a treat to see these two resume their long-standing rivalry, but the fact that there is so much on the line makes this the most consequential game of rivalry weekend. It's been over a month since the Longhorns played a team on the level of Texas A&M, so I think there will be have to be adjustments throughout the sixty minutes, but they seem to be playing better football at this point in the year and bring a clear identity to the table. Even with the questions around Ewers, Texas is the stronger football team - for now. 

The Pick: Texas, 31 Texas A&M, 21

College Football Picks 2024: Week Thirteen

Kurtis Rourke, Indiana

Current Picks Record: 63-35

Upsets: 5-8

Superdogs: 5-4

(#5) Indiana Hoosiers @ (#2) Ohio State Buckeyes

Line: Ohio State -11

O/U: 52.5

Few rivalries in college football are as lopsided as the series between the Ohio State Buckeyes and Indiana Hoosiers. Since the turn of the 1900s, the Hoosiers have won just 12 games against the Buckeyes, with nearly half of those coming pre-1913. They have beaten Ohio State just twice since 1951, with the last win coming all the way back in 1988. This Saturday, Indiana will look to not just flip the script in the long-standing rivalry and beat OSU but strengthen their College Football Playoff resume with the big win that has eluded them up to this point. It's not exaggeration to call it the most important game in Indiana football history.

The Hoosiers may not have the household names on offense others feature, but there's little denying this group has exceeded expectations the entirety of the fall. They average nearly 44 points per game on the offensive side, featuring a balanced, efficient group of playmakers. Quarterback Kurtis Rourke has been the catalyst despite dealing with injuries over the second half of the season, as he's thrown for 2,410 yards and 21 touchdowns, while completing 72% of his throws. Surrounding him, the duo of Justice Ellison and Ty Son Lawton give the ground game plenty of pop, while Elijah Sarratt and big-play threat Omar Cooper Jr. challenges defenses vertically. None of these four are going to finish the year as All-Americans, but the Indiana offense as a whole works cohesively as well as anyone in the country. Ellison and Lawton do just enough to keep defenses honest, and the depth and versatility of the receiver corps provide this offense with plenty of explosiveness. It should be enough to give Jim Knowles and this Ohio State defense a challenge. Knowles has done an excellent job with this group, but the Oregon loss did show the secondary has their fair share of weaknesses, and the rush defense could be in store for a tough game this late in the season. With that being said, Ohio State does seem to have a clear edge in the trenches, with their entire starting defensive line all certain to be future NFL pros. Indiana has been strong up front all season, an underrated element to their success, but this is a whole different challenge altogether. This isn't like the Oregon game, where the Ducks will be able to counter with one of the nation's top offensive lines, a group full of future pros themselves. Indiana is at a clear disadvantage here, and the Buckeyes can disrupt their entire offensive flow with what they do at the line of scrimmage.

There have been occasional growing pains for this Ohio State offense after breaking in a new play-caller (Chip Kelly) with a new quarterback and several fresh faces, but this unit seems to be playing their best ball at the right time. At this point, we know who Will Howard is going to be for the Buckeyes - he's unlikely to elevate this offense, but he doesn't need to with the talent they have at tailback and receiver. What the Buckeyes need is what Howard provides: a steady, consistent quarterback that does just enough to put his team in winning situations. Of course, it helps when you have Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson coming out of the backfield, and the likes of Jeremiah Smith, Emeka Egbuka, and more on the perimeter. The depth on this roster is what really sets apart Ohio State for me, and why they were my preseason National Title pick. This deep into a season, every team is beat up, but the fact the Buckeyes can call on former blue-chip recruits farther down their depth chart is a huge advantage. Don't be shocked if we see a figure like a Brandon Inniss have a moment in this one, a player who would start at just about anywhere else in the country who is reduced to a complementary role in this offense. With that being said, I'm keeping a close eye on the battle in the trenches on this side of the ball, too. The loss of center Seth McLaughlin, who tore his Achilles in practice earlier in the week, is a massive loss. It will force the Buckeyes to mix and match up front and leaves them exposed on the interior against an Indiana that features Mikhail Kamara, probably the best interior D-Linemen in the Big Ten. It's a position group to watch, as the Hoosiers are much tougher along their front seven than the average fan may assume.

Two things can be true at once - Indiana has benefitted from a miraculously easy schedule to this point and yet, they're also a tremendous football team that can certainly give the Buckeyes a run for their money in Columbus. I'm just not sure they have the athletes to compete with Ohio State full a full 60 minutes, no matter how well-coached they may be. I suspect a tight game into the fourth quarter, where the Buckeyes talent advantage becomes too much to overcome.

The Pick: Ohio State, 34 Indiana, 21

College Football Picks 2024: Week Twelve

Dylan Sampson, Tennessee

Current Picks Record: 56-32

Upsets: 4-8

Superdogs: 5-3

(#7) Tennessee Volunteers @ (#12) Georgia Bulldogs

Line: Georgia -9.5

O/U: 47.5

Georgia is facing down unfamiliar territory as they welcome Tennessee to town this weekend: the possibility of a third regular season loss and a likely elimination from the College Football Playoff. It has moved into must-win for the Bulldogs, but with the Volunteers on a Playoff quest of their own, it should be quite the battle in Athens on Saturday night.

Carson Beck entered the 2024 campaign as a Heisman frontrunner and likely first-round NFL Draft selection, but the veteran quarterback has had pronounced struggles in recent weeks. He's now thrown an interception in four straight games, including three each against Texas and Florida. They aren't a result of bad luck either, such as a tipped pass or receiver drops - they have been terrible decisions, trying to fit the ball in tight windows against SEC defenses. It's fair to wonder where his head is at as he preps for another important game, against another turnover-hungry defense. Georgia doesn't need him to be throwing for 400 yards and five touchdowns a game, what they need is for him to make smart decisions and take care of the ball, which just hasn't happened in the big moments this fall. To be fair to Beck, the supporting cast hasn't quite been at Georgia standards. They've lacked a true go-to weapon on the outside, although Dominic Lovett and Arian Smith have proven to be their most reliable, and the backfield has been hit by injuries, with Trevor Etienne ruled out for this contest. The offensive line has also taken their lumps on the year, which has forced Beck into uncomfortable situations he's clearly not used to. But, if the Bulldogs are to get back on track, they need their quarterback to play with more confidence. I wonder if they'll look to get him a rhythm early with shorter, easier throws and look to incorporate screens into the offense. He's still going to have to make some throws down-the-field, but that should help him get into a groove and nullify an aggressive Tennessee pass rush. Freshman Nate Frazier and do-it-all Dillon Bell should also be counted on heavily with Etienne's absence. They're going to need to carve up some yardage against a strong Volunteer front, and use up some clock to get their defense a rest going the other way. It's no easy task against one of the best defensive fronts in the SEC, but the Bulldogs have won out in these types of games before, and will try for a repeat of that same formula in this one.

Tennessee has had their share of offensive struggles in much the same vein as Georgia, quite the surprise given Josh Heupel's reputation for having high-octane offenses. Sophomore quarterback Nico Iamaleava has had flashes, but he hasn't taken off the way most expected when he was handed control of the offense heading into the season. And now, his status is uncertain for this one after he left last week's Mississippi State game with a head injury. Earlier in the week it sounded likely he was going to play, but the mood has seemingly shifted around him over the last few days. If he's not able to go, Tennessee will turn to senior Gaston Moore, who came on in relief last weekend and threw a total of eight passes. I suspect Nico will try his best to go, but if not, the Volunteer offense is likely to become all about the ground-and-pound, with tailback Dylan Sampson set to lead the charge. Sampson has been a pleasant surprise, one of the big reasons the Volunteers are seventh in the country, and he's evolved into a true workhorse for this team. That could create quite the matchup, as Georgia's defensive front, while inconsistent, remains among the best in the nation. The Bulldogs don't always show up but when they do, they look much in the same vein as the dominant groups that led this defense in the late 2010s and early 2020s. Jalon Walker, Mykel Williams, and Chaz Chambliss should all be ready to go - look no further than their play in the Texas game as a reminder that this defensive front can still take over games when they're playing well.

While is not a true Playoff elimination game considering Tennessee only has one loss, it's hard to imagine Georgia finding a way to sneak in with three losses. But, I don't suspect that's something Kirby Smart and the 'Dawgs are going to have to think about just yet. Despite the struggles and even after a flat performance last weekend, I think they're the right choice here. With Nico's status in question and with this being in Athens, this one trends to Georgia.

The Pick: Georgia, 24 Tennessee, 20

College Football Picks 2024: Week Eleven

Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss

Current Picks Record: 51-28

Upsets: 4-7

Superdogs: 4-3

(#11) Alabama Crimson Tide @ (#15) LSU Tigers

Line: Alabama -3

O/U: 58.5

The Alabama-LSU rivalry game always has importance, but the stakes for this year are different. Both teams are firmly in the thick of the College Football Playoff but a loss from either, which would be their third, would likely knock them out of things as we stand in early November. For two programs with sky high expectations, that's simply not acceptable - meaning both have plenty to play for on Saturday night in primetime.

Jalen Milroe was considered a Heisman frontrunner over the course of the first month-and-a-half of the 2024 campaign, but he has slowed significantly during a difficult stretch for the Crimson Tide. Against Tennessee and Missouri, Milroe still put up solid numbers, but Tennessee's pressure forced him into two turnovers and he didn't throw for a touchdown against Missouri. After the bye week, this LSU game feels like a prime opportunity for him to get back on track. The Tigers have improved tremendously defensively under Blake Baker, but the secondary still remains frightfully inconsistent, and they've struggled against dual-threat quarterbacks - evidenced by Marcel Reed's big game a few weeks ago. It would help Milroe if the Tide could find some balance on the ground, as their rushing attack has been suspect over the past month behind a struggling offensive line. Ryan Williams has also slowed down significantly on the perimeter, which has forced the Tide to open their playbook and look to manufacture easier yards through the air. All of that has been frustrating, but the bye did come at the right time and if their is a head coach who should be able to figure this out, it's Kalen DeBoer. Despite the ups-and-downs for the Tide this fall, he remains one of the best offensive minds in the sport, and had plenty of time to prepare for LSU. I get the feeling Alabama is going to come out aggressive in much the same way they did against Georgia, even with this game being in Baton Rouge.

The LSU offense has relied heavily on the pass all season long but as they reach the home stretch of the regular season, they've pretty much abandoned any effort to run the ball. It's all on the shoulders of Garrett Nussmeier now and although he's been an effective quarterback, this is his first season as starter. There have been the occasional mistakes, which should be expected of an SEC quarterback, and the A&M game provided Alabama the game tape they need to know how to slow him down. After struggling in the first half, A&M altered their coverage and mixed and matched on the back-end, forcing Nussmeier to face down defenses he hasn't seen before. The result was turnovers, with the three interceptions dooming the Tigers as A&M ran away with it in the second half. Even against an inexperienced Tide secondary, one that has struggled significantly at times, I still feel like LSU has to find some semblance of offensive balance, even if it's just enough to keep the defense honest. If not, Nussmeier is going to have some very difficult windows to throw into, with Kane Wommack having plenty of time to prepare himself. The battle in the trenches is another key X-factor - this isn't the same Alabama defensive front we came to know in the peak Saban years, but they can still get after quarterbacks. If Nussmeier is under pressure, this one becomes difficult to imagine coming out as a Tiger victory.

Both Alabama and LSU remain difficult times to get a read on as we prepare for the final month of the regular season. When they're playing well, they still look like potential National Title contenders, with high-flying, fun talent on both sides of the ball. When not, they're one-dimensional, limited teams that just don't look like what we've come to expect from these programs. We can't be sure which editions will come out on the field on Saturday, but I lean Alabama only because we know they can win in different ways and they've looked elite when they're on their "A" game. As difficult as it will be going on the road and beating LSU, the Tide feel like the slightly safer pick.

The Pick: Alabama, 38 LSU, 35

College Football Picks 2024: Week Ten

Will Howard, Ohio State

Current Picks Record: 45-26

Upsets: 3-6

Superdogs: 4-3

(#4) Ohio State Buckeyes @ (#3) Penn State Nittany Lions

Line: Ohio State -3

O/U: 46.5

Penn State and Ohio State reignite their rivalry this weekend, with the Nittany Lions entering in unfamiliar territory as the higher ranked team - although they still are a home underdog. It's the perfect opportunity for Penn State to prove themselves on a national scale and show that they can win the big one. 

Ohio State's loss to Oregon earlier in the year leaves them with little room for error as they push towards the end of the regular season. They're still in a good spot to make the College Football Playoff, but a loss to Penn State could mean a nerve-racking finish, with Indiana, Michigan, and a potential Big Ten Championship Game trip still on the horizon. The offense was far from the problem in the Oregon loss after they went for 467 yards, but two turnovers and the inability to put together a winning drive in the final seconds puts pressure on this side of the ball as they prep for the Nittany Lions. Quarterback Will Howard has been solid, but the Buckeyes will need him to elevate his game down the stretch if they are to still reach their lofty expectations. Fortunately for Howard, he is blessed with a receiver corps that includes Emeka Egbuka and Jeremiah Smith, plus the 1-2 punch of Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson out of the backfield. The skill position talent has never been the issue here at Ohio State, and they should still be able to move the ball aplenty, even against this gifted Penn State defense. It's the offensive line that has to be better, fresh off a shockingly bad performance against Nebraska. The Buckeyes got pushed around in a way we simply aren't used to seeing from this program. That's a real concern against a Nittany Lion defense that loves to blitz, and features several future NFLers across their front seven. Did this Ohio State offensive line figure it out in the span of a week? If not, Chip Kelly and the rest of the Buckeye offense are going to have to be creative in how they approach such a notable weakness up front.

The Nittany Lions fought off Wisconsin to maintain their undefeated record, but took a loss that didn't show up in the "L" column. Starting quarterback Drew Allar was knocked out of the game, and his status for Saturday remains unclear. It's expected we do see him but he's clearly not close to 100 percent, and it could be on a limited basis. That means backup Beau Pribula will have to be ready to go after coming on in relief last weekend. Interestingly enough, there's some thought that Pribula may actually unlock parts of this offense we didn't see with Allar. He doesn't have Allar's arm, but the sophomore is a gifted runner who can open things up with his legs. The Nittany Lions seemed to find their offensive rhythm after he come on last Saturday, and they'll hope to maintain that momentum into this one. With that being said, this is quite the stage to be making a first career start, even at home. He'll also have to deal with an Ohio State defense that seems to be playing extra motivated since the Oregon loss, with J.T. Tuimolalu and company causing plenty of chaos up front. With Allar's status uncertain, expect the Nittany Lions to look to their ground game early and often, even after it was held in check by Wisconsin last week. 

Allar's injury, even if he does come back and play in this game, throws this one into uncertainty. Penn State has looked the part all season, but the Buckeyes have long given them troubles, a team that they've struggled to close out. I think the Nittany Lions are better than the same teams that have lost in the past, but the Buckeyes are extra hungry, too. I just don't imagine this Ohio State team losing another close game after Oregon, so I think they finish the job this time.

The Pick: Ohio State, 34 Penn State, 31