Sunday, July 28, 2024

College Football Preview 2024: Big 12 Part 1

Avery Johnson, Kansas State
 

Realignment Recap: Over a decade since Oklahoma and Texas first reportedly started eying a potential move to the Pac-12, the flagship programs of the Big 12 are indeed moving on. However, the two won't be moving to the Pac-12, but instead the SEC, a move that spurred another wave of realignment over the last two years. This time, as opposed to the early 2010s when they watched Texas A&M, Missouri, Colorado and Nebraska all leave, the Big 12 was prepared. They had already added four programs from across the country in response to the original decision from OU and Texas, and commissioner Brett Yormark was aggressive in sweeping up the remnants of the Pac-12 when it became clear the league was on the precipice of collapse. Now, Colorado is back in their longtime home, Utah has tagged along, and the Arizona schools have expanded the Big 12's footprint into the West Coast. That leaves the Big 12 with 16 teams, and despite the absence of their two premier powers in the Sooners and Longhorns, it has a chance to be the most competitive power conference in America. 2024 in particular could be an incredibly fun year - there's no obvious frontrunner and no clear bottom-feeder, which means we could be in store for some fireworks this fall.


Power Rankings

1. Utah Utes

Offense: Cam Rising's recovery from a torn ACL suffered in the 2023 Rose Bowl was the talk of last offseason and into the fall in Salt Lake City. By midseason, it became clear the veteran quarterback wasn't healthy enough to return for the 2023 campaign, leaving the Utes shuffling between several short-term solutions at the position.

Rising appears ready for his grand return, and is the clear starter at the position now that Bryson Barnes and Nate Johnson have both transferred out of the program. There may be some rust after missing a whole season of action, but Rising has proven his worth as a steady, tough winner. He enters the year with 58 career touchdowns and over 6,000 yards of total offense to his credit, making him one of the best in the league.

There will be some new faces alongside Rising, although the offense remains in an overall stable place. Coordinator Andy Ludwig is back, and is still going to run heavily on the ground game, with veterans Micah Bernard and Jaylon Glover set to handle the load after the surprising transfer of Ja'Quinden Jackson. 

At receiver, Utah will benefit greatly from the addition of Dorian Singer, who had previous pit stops at USC and Arizona and was one of the best in the former Pac-12 when healthy. Add in seniors Money Parks and Mycah Pittman, this could be the best receiver group Rising has worked with since arriving at Utah. Then there's tight end Brant Kuithe, who much like his quarterback, missed all of 2023 after suffering a knee injury the year prior. He's one of the best in the nation when 100 percent, and could be a John Mackey Award candidate this year.

Defense: Although the defense didn't have the injuries to their big names that the offense did, this side of the ball was still hit hard by the injury bug. Despite this, they still managed to boast a Top 20 unit, one that surrendered just 19.3 points per game in 2023.

12 sacks are gone from the defensive front following the departure of Jonah Elliss, but the Utes are hopeful the holdovers will keep this group stout. Seniors Van Fillinger and Connor O'Toole have proven to be disruptors, with O'Toole back to 100 percent after missing five games last fall.

Senior Karene Reid will play a key leadership role at linebacker, but the Utes are particularly excited about junior Lander Barton, another player who missed time a year ago. Barton, a former blue-chipper, has had flashes throughout his time in Salt Lake City so far, but he's likely to move all over the field in 2024 and has this season circled as the one he emerges as a true difference-maker.

The secondary was already in a good spot with all the returning pieces, even with Cole Bishop and Sione Vaki moving on, and this staff further bolstered this unit through the portal. Kenan Johnson and Zemaiah Vaughn are a superb 1-2 combo at corner, and now have more help with Michigan transfer Cameron Calhoun. Add in rising sophomore Tao Johnson, the Utes have to feel good about this spot heading into the fall.

Bottom Line: Few programs across the country come close to Utah when it comes to consistently winning football games, and 2024 has the looks of a resurgent campaign. Considering the poor injury luck the program dealt with last season, going 8-5 should be treated like quite the accomplishment, but don't expect Kyle Whittingham and this team to be satisfied. They should be eager to get into the Big 12 and show what they can do, and without a clear frontrunner beyond them and potentially Kansas State, this has the looks of the program's first ever Playoff team.


2. Kansas State Wildcats

Offense: Things will look a bit different offensively in Manhattan this fall after the surprising decision by coordinator Collin Klein to leave his alma mater and take the same position at Texas A&M. Chris Kleiman opted to stay in-house and promote offensive line coach Conor Riley, a reminder of the stability and continuity he has built into this program.

Riley will move forward with a new quarterback under center. The rise of talented sophomore Avery Johnson essentially forced out veteran Will Howard, who in turn ended up at Ohio State. Johnson, the highest-rated recruit in program history, looked the part in backup duty last fall and now that he has control of the offense, he's expected to be one of the sport's breakout candidates. With that being said, staying healthy will be crucial, especially considering his dual-threat ability. Kansas State is remarkably thin at the position behind Johnson, the type of thing that could derail an otherwise potentially special season.

Junior tailback D.J. Giddens is one of the most underrated in the nation after tallying over 1,200 yards in 2023 and he'll have support alongside him in Colorado transfer Dylan Edwards. Edwards struggled at times during his true freshman season playing behind an atrocious CU O-Line, but his playmaking ability as a receiver will yield immediate value.

Giddens and Edwards will have their work cut out for them operating behind an offensive line that must replace four starters, but the hope is that a more dynamic passing game will help take the load off this rush offense. Johnson will have the luxury of throwing to a talented receiver corps that includes Jayce Brown, Keagan Johnson, and Penn State transfer Dante Cephas, but being without tight end Ben Sinnott hurts.

Defense: This is a program that reloads, not rebuilds, on the defensive side of the ball and they should be in a good spot once more in 2024. A few key defenders may move on, but the Wildcats are particularly strong off the edge and in the secondary.

Defensive end Brendan Mott and senior tackle Uso Seumalo give Kansas State a great starting point up front, although the coaching staff is hopeful others will emerge to give this unit depth. Fortunately, senior linebacker Austin Moore is back to create constant pressure off the edge, as he notched 12.5 tackles for loss a year ago.

Moore will be flanked by junior outside linebacker Desmond Purnell, a playmaker at the position, but it will be interesting to see what happens at middle linebacker. Sophomore Austin Romaine and New Mexico transfer Alec Marenco are in competition to start, with junior Jake Clifton pausing his football career to serve an LDS mission.

Kobe Saving and Will Lee II are notable losses on the back-end, but just about every other piece is back in the fold. Safeties V.J. Payne and Marquis Sigle are two of the best in the Big 12, and should line up just about everywhere for coordinator Joe Klanderman.

Bottom Line: Much like Utah, Kansas State has been a model of consistency under Chris Kleiman, so it's no surprise that they are considered the top contender in the new-look Big 12 alongside the Utes. You could argue K-State may have the higher ceiling if Johnson is as good as advertised and the offensive line can mesh quickly, but the turnover offensively gives enough pause for them to come in just behind Utah in these power rankings. With that being said, the Wildcats are firmly in the mix for a Playoff spot in the expanded field, and the program looks the most ready of the Big 12 holdovers to take advantage of the absence of Oklahoma and Texas in the conference.

Thursday, July 18, 2024

College Football Preview 2024: Big Ten Part 2

Darius Taylor, Minnesota

Realignment Recap: A decade after the league expanded to the East Coast with the additions of Rutgers and Maryland, the Big Ten made a splash by landing the two LA schools, a move that was the beginning of the end for the Pac-12. Following the Big 12's raid of the Pac-12, the Big Ten moved again to secure Oregon and Washington, giving the conference a footprint on both the West Coast and broader Pacific Northwest. With schools now across the country, the Big Ten moves to 18 teams and moves away from divisions, a new era for a conference fresh off a National Title. One would imagine the move will pay immediate dividends, with the four new programs all bringing with them notable brands and proven pedigrees to the equation. Whether that means one of the newcomers will be able to wrestle the league away from the clutches of Michigan and Ohio State remains to be seen, but should be a fascinating storyline as we kick things off this fall.


Power Rankings

Teams 1-9 available in Part 1


10. Wisconsin Badgers

Offense: A quarterback battle that will extend into fall camp and potentially into the regular season will determine who is at the controls of the Wisconsin offense in 2024. Former Mississippi State transfer Braedyn Locke started three games last fall, but the staff brought in former Miami starter Tyer Van Dyke, who has the edge in experience but is coming off two frustrating seasons in a row. Locke knows the system better, but Van Dyke was brought on for a reason, and he seems to be on the inside track to being the starter in the opener.

Whoever ends up as starter will have the benefit of having one of the top Badger receivers in recent memory in Will Pauling, a junior who led the team with 837 yards and six touchdowns last season. Alongside him, Bryson Green and Trech Kekahuna are two other names to monitor - Green has flashed significant potential when healthy, while Kekahuna's performance in the ReliaQuest Bowl has the program excited about his future.

With Van Dyke and several key returning receivers, Wisconsin is certainly hoping this is the year the passing game takes off. But, at the end of the day, it's the ground game that should always be the heart and soul of this offense. Even with Braelon Allen now being a New York Jet, the Badgers still boast Chez Mellusi and Oklahoma transfer Tawee Walker. Mellusi, who began his career with Clemson, has been impressive when healthy, but staying on the field has been a struggle - how will he handle the increased workload demands?

It was an uncharacteristically off 2023 for the Badger offensive line, allowing 23 sacks, but there's belief they should be improved. Tackles Jack Nelson and Riley Mahlman will play crucial roles in pass protection, while seniors Joe Huber and Jake Renfro open up lanes for the rushing attack.

Another full offseason will be very important for the program as a whole as they slowly acclimate to offensive coordinator Phil Longo's scheme. It was always going to take time for the personnel to adjust to an offense that will be much more up-tempo and aggressive down-the-field, but there's hope that this fall things could all come together on this side of the ball.

Defense: Coordinator Mike Tressel is back to run the Wisconsin defense, and his chief priority over the offseason was identifying some new playmakers up front. The Badgers weren't able to get after the quarterback as often as they would have liked a season ago, and they also worked in the portal to reload at linebacker.

Senior James Thompson Jr. will be a key returning piece on the D-Line, but others have to emerge. Sophomore Curt Neal will be counted on heavily, but depth in this position group is a concern. Fortunately, the linebacker corps behind them is awfully talented, bringing in several transfers expected to contribute right away. Tackett Curtis was impressive as a true freshman at USC and could slide right into the starting MLB spot, while Leon Lowery comes over from Syracuse and should also start.

It's good and bad news in the secondary, where the Badgers do lose several pieces, but also return a pair of proven defenders in Hunter Wohler and Ricardo Hallman. Wohler has progressed steadily during his time in Madison and is now expected to be one of the top safeties in the Big Ten, while Hallman will be the top corner. The staff has worked to improve the depth on the back-end, which should pay dividends with how tough the second half of Wisconsin's schedule appears.

Bottom Line: There were understandable growing pains for Luke Fickell and the new staff throughout 2023, but the hope is that the program takes steps forward this fall. It has the looks of a classic Wisconsin team, one that will run the ball effectively and play tough defense, but it will be the passing game that will be under the microscope once again. If the Badgers can become more balanced offensively, they should continue moving up the pecking order but if not, their ceiling feels capped as a middle-of-the-pack program. Either way, a difficult schedule doesn't help - the Badgers get Alabama in the non-conference and a late season stretch that includes Penn State, at Iowa, and Oregon all in a row.


11. Minnesota Golden Gophers

Offense: After flashing near the end of the 2022 season, Minnesota had high hopes for quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis. But, the "Greek Rifle" struggled adjusting to the new offense under co-coordinators Greg Harbaugh Jr. and Matt Simon and ended up transferring out. In response, the staff brought on New Hampshire transfer Max Brosmer, who led FCS in passing. Brosmer may need time to adjust to FBS ball, but he's received rave reviews over the offseason and has a proven pedigree at the collegiate level.

Joining Brosmer in the backfield will be tailback Darius Taylor, who the Gophers managed to keep in town despite rumors he was set to receive significant NIL interest elsewhere. Taylor looked well on his way to stardom before injuries derailed his 2023, but should be fully healthy for the fall. And if the injury bug hits again, the Gophers appear better prepared after bringing on a pair of transfer in Sieh Bangura from Ohio and Marcus Major from Oklahoma.

Daniel Jackson was the most important element of the Gopher offense last season and stayed in town, giving Brosmer a proven, reliable weapon to work with on the perimeter. Behind him, there's question marks, but plenty of potential. Le'Meke Brockington is healthy again after missing a big chunk of last fall, greater things are expected of former Charlotte transfer Elijah Spencer after a disappointing 2023, and Georgia transfer Tyler Williams could be a breakout candidate. 

Minnesota doesn't get enough credit nationally for the excellent job they've done building a consistently strong offensive line. This could be one of the better groups in the conference, as four starters return, including likely All-Big Ten candidate Aireontae Ersery at left tackle. Fellow seniors Tyler Cooper and Quinn Carroll should keep the rush offense humming as they return at the guard spots.

Defense: Losing coordinator Joe Rossi to Michigan State was a massive blow over the offseason, but the hiring of Rutgers linebacker coach Corey Hetherman was well-received across the Big Ten landscape. Hetherman has plenty to work with, but improving the pass defense will be priority No. 1 this fall.

The Gophers will boast a veteran defensive line in 2024, with Jah Joyner, Jalen Logan-Redding, Deven Eastern, and Danny Striggow all familiar names. Joyner led the team with 46 pressures last fall and even greater things are expected of the talented junior - this could be the year it all comes together for him. Jaxon Howard, a Minnesota native who began his career at LSU, is back in his home state and should also factor into the rotation up front.

The biggest news for this defense is the healthy return of linebacker Cody Lindenberg, who missed most of last season with injuries. The rangy Lindenberg is an All-Conference talent when he's healthy, and it became clear just how much the Gophers missed him when he was out a year ago. Maverick Baranowski played a larger role than expected with Lindenberg hurt and performed admirably, now likely to lock down a starting role. Add in Devon Williams, back for his junior season, this should be a much stronger linebacker corps than the 2023 version.

Even with All-American safety Tyler Nubin, the secondary was the Achilles Heel of the Minnesota defense last season. Now Nubin is gone, but the Gophers are hopeful that the unit will be healthier, deeper, and more experienced, all equating to better play. Senior corner Justin Walley is a stud when healthy but couldn't stay on the field consistently enough in 2023. He's joined by a familiar face in Darius Green at safety, while the star of the 2022 bowl win, Coleman Bryson, is also going to see heavy snaps. P.J. Fleck and staff also managed to reel in one of the most talked about recruits in school history in safety Koi Percich, who they kept away from big boys like Ohio State and who made a name for himself in the All-American Bowl over the offseason.

Bottom Line: It was a frustrating seventh season for Fleck in the Twin Cities, with the Gophers falling back to 5-7 on the regular season and losing their final four games. The bowl victory did provide some much-needed momentum into the offseason and despite the loss of Rossi and Fleck's flirting with the UCLA job, they did a good job filling holes. The schedule is among the most difficult in the conference this year but if the Gophers can stay healthier than they did a season ago, an improvement on the record seems to be in the cards, and they could be a dark horse in this league.

Thursday, July 11, 2024

College Football Preview 2024: Big Ten Part 1

Tez Johnson, Oregon

Realignment Recap: A decade after the league expanded to the East Coast with the additions of Rutgers and Maryland, the Big Ten made a splash by landing the two LA schools, a move that was the beginning of the end for the Pac-12. Following the Big 12's raid of the Pac-12, the Big Ten moved again to secure Oregon and Washington, giving the conference a footprint on both the West Coast and broader Pacific Northwest. With schools now across the country, the Big Ten moves to 18 teams and moves away from divisions, a new era for a conference fresh off a National Title. One would imagine the move will pay immediate dividends, with the four new programs all bringing with them notable brands and proven pedigrees to the equation. Whether that means one of the newcomers will be able to wrestle the league away from the clutches of Michigan and Ohio State remains to be seen, but should be a fascinating storyline as we kick things off this fall.


Power Rankings

1. Ohio State Buckeyes

Offense: Even with the brilliant Marvin Harrison Jr. on the outside, the Ohio State offense was as pedestrian as we've ever seen it in under Ryan Day, and the sixth-year head man responded by making sweeping changes. Kyle McCord was essentially forced out at quarterback and replaced by Kansas State transfer Will Howard, Quinshon Judkins was brought in from Ole Miss to bolster the ground game, and Chip Kelly was hired as offensive coordinator after a stint as UCLA head coach.

Howard may not be a Justin Fields or C.J. Stroud, but the experienced signal-caller should be an upgrade over McCord and doesn't have to be anything special - with all the talent surrounding him, he can be a facilitator. With that being said, Ohio State has arguably the deepest quarterback room in the country behind him, one that includes backup Devin Brown, Alabama transfer Julian Sayin, and highly touted true frosh Air Noland. If the offense takes some time to gel, it's not unreasonable to think one of these guys could push Howard and seize control of the starting job.

Fortunately, Howard is the beneficiary of probably the best supporting cast in all of college football. TreVeyon Henderson is one of the best backs in the country when healthy, but is looking for a bit of redemption after a pair of injury-plagued seasons. The addition of Judkins, who comes over after an impressive tenure at Ole Miss, could help keep the wear and tear off Henderson, giving this team a two-headed monster in the backfield.

Harrison Jr. may now be an Arizona Cardinal, but Emeka Egbuka said no to the NFL and will be the headliner, with plenty surrounding him. Sophomores Carnell Tate and Brandon Inniss are both prime breakout candidates, but they may be overshadowed by Jeremiah Smith, the top-ranked receiver in the Class of 2024 and one of the highest-ranked prospects period. 

The offensive line is going to play an important role setting up the ground game and despite a few losses, this should be a strong group. Donovan Jackson and Josh Fryar will open up gapping holes for the rushing attack, while Josh Simmons anchors things on the outside. The X-factor will be newcomer Seth McLaughlin, who is likely to slide into the starting center spot. Can he redeem himself after a rough ending to his Alabama career?

We still aren't quite sure what Kelly's offense will look like but with all this talent, it's hard to imagine this unit not improving on their 2023 numbers. If everyone stays healthy and Howard acclimates quickly, this could be the nation's best.

Defense: The Buckeye defense has improved dramatically under coordinator Jim Knowles, and this program received good news after good news on this side of the ball over the offseason. Up front, defensive ends J.T. Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer both stayed put despite NFL interest and should form the most dominant pass rushing duo in the country. Also back is Tyleik Williams, another guy who would have been a first or second round NFL Draft selection, but instead returns for his senior season.

On the back-end, senior corner Denzel Burke also surprised when he announced he would be back for another year, leading a deep and experienced group that includes Jordan Hancock and Lathan Ransom. But even more important was the addition of Caleb Downs from Alabama, probably the most important transfer in the country after he notched 70 tackles as a true freshman. Playing at a key free safety spot as a proven playmaker, Downs should rack up the accolades and be the heart and soul of this unit.

It's the linebacker spot where there may be slight concern as Tommy Eichenberg and Steele Chambers depart. But the cupboard is never bare here in Columbus, and senior Cody Simon is expected to slide into the starting middle linebacker spot alongside junior Sonny Styles. Styles, who began his career at safety but is moving around to open the door for Downs, is a particularly versatile weapon who Knowles should continue to play around with.

Bottom Line: The stars are aligning in Columbus. Sure, the Big Ten as a whole should be tougher, but it's widely assumed Michigan will take a step-back, and the Buckeyes can undoubtedly take control. Several key pieces decided to forego on the NFL despite early round grades to take care of unfinished business and Day and staff landed potentially the top two transfers on both sides of the ball in Judkins and Downs. It feels like this is the make-or-break year for Day, who has accomplished everything but a National Title. I think this is the team to do it - they are my pick to win the 2024-25 National Title.


2. Oregon Ducks

Offense: Bo Nix put together arguably the greatest two-season stretch as quarterback in Oregon football history, but he's not the only name that departs from the offense as they look ahead to 2024. Top wide out Troy Franklin and dynamic tailback Mar'Keise "Bucky" Irving also said goodbye, forcing the Ducks to reload over the offseason.

Oregon responded by landing not one, but two, quarterbacks who could start right away in Dillon Gabriel and Dante Moore. One would assume it will be Gabriel, on his third year after stops at UCF and Oklahoma, who will shepherd the offense in 2024, while Moore looks like the long-term face of the program after coming over from UCLA. Gabriel has his limitations and probably isn't an NFL guy, but the gunslinger is a veteran piece who will be the perfect catalyst for this offense.

Tez Johnson, the adopted brother of Nix, is back to open things out wide, while the Oregon staff also landed one of the top receivers in the portal in Texas A&M's Evan Stewart. Johnson will be the versatile, underneath option, while Stewart will take over the big-play, downfield role left vacant by Franklin. Traeshon Holden and Gary Bryant Jr. are also around, as is tight end Terrance Ferguson, giving Gabriel an abundance of options in this wide-open offense. Keep your eye on true freshman Gatlin Blair, too, a former Boise State commit who is one of the fastest players anywhere in college football.

At running back, Jordan James and Noah Whittington both got plenty of work behind Irving last fall and should have no issues handling the extra load. James finished with 759 yards and averaged over seven yards per carry, but I expect even greater things from Whittington, who ran for nearly 800 yards himself in 2022 before being sidelined a year ago.

Rimington Trophy winner Jackson Powers-Johnson may be gone, but Oregon remains strong up front, with Josh Conerly Jr. and Ajani Cornelius forming one of the best tackle combos in the nation. Sophomore Iapani Laloulu looks like he'll be one to take over for Powers-Johnson at center.

This offense put up 531.4 YPG and 44.2 PPG last fall - even with the departures, I don't suspect a major drop-off. We know how productive Gabriel is, and the playmakers around him should make this another fun year in Eugene. 

Defense: It's the defensive side of the football that Dan Lanning has worked hard to build up, and Oregon looks more like an SEC or prototypical Big Ten team than what we used to see in the old Pac-12. The front seven in particular is full of future NFL guys and despite plenty of youth on the D-Line, this should be an elite group. Expect Jordan Burch, a former blue-chip prospect who originally began at South Carolina, to be the star.

Senior linebackers Jestin Jacobs and Jeffrey Bassa give defensive coordinator Tosh Lupoi two athletic, ball-hawking defenders at the heart of this defense. Even greater things may be coming for Jacobs, as he gears up for his second year in the program after coming over from Iowa. 

There is no shortage of talent in the secondary, but the Ducks are hoping for more consistency here as they make the jump to the Big Ten. Bringing Jabbar Muhammed over from rival Washington was quite the coup for this coaching staff, while junior Jahlil Florence is looking to improve at the other corner spot. The safeties are in good hands with hard-hitting Kobe Savage, formerly of Kansas State, joined by Tysheem Johnson and talented true frosh Aaron Flowers.

It will be interesting to see how Lanning and Lupoi adjust this Oregon defense to the Big Ten. They have been hyper-aggressive over the last two seasons, the reason for the Ducks recording 34 sacks last fall, but will they be more conservative now? Something tells me that isn't Lanning's style, and they may even look to turn it up a notch as they embark on this new journey.

Bottom Line: Oregon has been right on the cusp of the College Football Playoff each of the last two seasons and with the expansion, they should be able to get in safely this fall. But, I think there are even loftier goals in mind for Lanning and company. This team is good enough to not just compete in the Big Ten but even win it on their first try, and a National Title, the first in program history, doesn't sound too crazy either. If the offense can reload the way we expect and the defense continue to develop, this is a team I firmly believe can take the whole thing when it's all said and done.

Sunday, July 7, 2024

College Football Preview 2024: ACC Part 2

Jaydn Ott, California
 Realignment Recap: After over a decade with 14 teams in the league, the Atlantic Coast Conference will kick off in fall 2024 with 17 teams playing under their banner. The league will also have a significantly different feel, adding in some West Coast and Southwest flair after they raided the remains of the Pac-12 to add California and Stanford, before moving into the American Athletic Conference and snagging SMU. It's widely assumed the moves were an effort by the league to get out in front of the likely departure of Florida State (and likely others) in the near future but for now, the ACC sits behind only the Big Ten in terms of league size. Whether the moves will have a tangible effect on the product on the field in 2024 remains unclear, but new blood in the constantly evolving world of college athletics should be a good thing - right?


Power Rankings

Teams 1-8 available in Part 1

9. North Carolina Tar Heels

Offense: Replacing Drake Maye after an illustrious few years in Chapel Hill remains priority No. 1 for the Tar Heels in 2024. Mack Brown and offensive coordinator Chip Lindsey are left to decide between holdover Conner Harrell, who started the bowl game after Maye's opt-out, or former LSU and Texas A&M transfer Max Johnson. It will be an interesting choice - we know who Johnson is at this point in his career and he's proven to be serviceable, but Harrell may be the right call in the long-term.

Whoever does start will have the benefit of having Omarion Hampton next to them in the backfield, as the junior tailback is fresh off a season in which he totaled over 1,500 yards and 15 touchdowns. He'll be a Doak Walker Award frontrunner in 2024.

Hampton will have to make do with a depleted offensive line that saw several starters depart over the offseason. Senior guard Willie Lampkin will anchor the unit, but it's now or never for several former big-name recruits to show what they can do, including sophomore Zach Rice.

Meanwhile, on the perimeter, the Tar Heels don't have a superstar, but have an abundance of solid pieces. Seniors J.J. Jones and Nate McCollum have proven to be quality playmakers when needed, while Gavin Blackwell and Kobe Paysour offer upside. Tight end should also be strong, with veterans John Copenhaver and Bryson Nesbit joined by Max Johnson's younger brother, Jake.

Defense: For far too long, the Tar Heel defense has been holding the program back, and it was clear Mack Brown felt he had to act. He parted ways with longtime friend Gene Chizik and brought in Geoff Collins, the former Georgia Tech head coach who has had numerous previous defensive coordinator positions. 

The thing is, Collins is going to have no shortage of talent at his disposal here. In particular, the front seven is loaded with former four and five-star prospects who just haven't quite lived up to the hype. Names like Desmond Evans, Travis Shaw, Beau Atkinson - can these guys finally put it together over the course of an entire campaign? On the interior, veteran Jahvaree Ritzie is a key returnee and Ole Miss transfer Joshua Harris adds depth.

Senior middle linebacker Power Echols is the best player on this defense, a proven veteran who notched over 100 tackles in 2023. He's going to set the tone for this entire defense, but there's not much experience beyond him at the linebacker spot, which could be quite the first-year challenge for Collins.

The secondary has been prone to the big play throughout Brown's second stint in Chapel Hill. Several starters are back, namely corners Alijah Huzzie and Marcus Allen, but consistency is key here. The safety position will benefit from the transfer of Jakeen Harris, who comes over from in-state rival NC State.

Bottom Line: UNC has been an incredibly hard team to read the last several seasons. They've recruited very well and spent the vast majority of the last half-decade firmly perched inside the Top 25, but it still doesn't feel like they've had a true breakthrough. I don't think 2024 will be that year as they begin life post-Maye, but matching last season's eight wins seems like a reasonable goal. The schedule certainly works out in their favor - aside from road trips to Minnesota and Florida State, it's incredibly easy, and they get NC State at home this year. But, do we trust this Heels program to capitalize?

10. Duke Blue Devils

Offense: Jonathan Brewer takes over the reigns of this Duke offense as offensive coordinator after a stint at SMU. He'll do so with a new quarterback under center, as Maalik Murphy arrives from Texas to fill the shoes of Riley Leonard, who transferred to Notre Dame.

Murphy appeared in seven games and started two for the Longhorns in 2023 after an injury to Quinn Ewers and looked capable, although throwing three interceptions wasn't particularly encouraging. At 6'5" with a frame built more like a middle linebacker than quarterback, he's quite the interesting talent, and how quickly he gels with Brewer could determine Duke's ceiling this fall.

Fortunately, Duke has plenty of pieces returning alongside Murphy, including a trio of receivers in Jordan Moore, Eli Pancol, and Sahmir Hagans. At running back, Jaquez Moore looks to get the first crack at taking over feature back duties as he enters his final year with the program, but sophomore Peyton Jones is a breakout candidate to watch. Although he was held to just 20 carries all of last season, Jones is one of the highest-rated recruits Duke has ever had at the position.

Defense: New head coach Manny Diaz has made a living on this side of the ball, but he'll have his work cut out for him in 2024. The cupboard is far from completely bare, but the Blue Devils were hit hard up front, where they lose all four starters.

Although there is significant production gone from the D-Line, junior end Vincent Anthony Jr. has been with the program for several years and remains a familiar face, while senior Ryan Smith looks to slide into a starting role at the opposite end spot. Although undersized, Smith is a hard-working defender who could finally emerge in his final year on campus.

Look for linebacker Tre Freeman to play a crucial leadership role after leading the Blue Devils with 106 tackles in 2023. However, others are going to need to step up around him if Duke is to keep the stifling rush defense they had for much of last season.

The secondary returns two familiar faces in Chandler Rivers at corner and Jaylen Stinson at safety, with Stinson finishing just behind Freeman in tackles a year ago. Both could be All-ACC talents, and I'm curious to see how Diaz and staff use Stinson, who could be a Swiss Army Knife in 2024. Senior Joshua Pickett also returns, and should start next to Rivers at cornerback.

Bottom Line: Mike Elko's departure after two seasons in Durham was disappointing, but somewhat expected, and the program rebounded by hiring Diaz to run the show. Although Diaz struggled in his first ACC coaching stint at Miami, he seems to have grown since, and should benefit from being in a low-pressure situation like Duke. He'll also benefit from having a really strong roster for his debut season, one that should deliver the Blue Devils bowl eligibility this fall.

Monday, July 1, 2024

College Football Preview 2024: ACC Part 1

Xavier Restrepo, Miami
 

Realignment Recap: After over a decade with 14 teams in the league, the Atlantic Coast Conference will kick off in fall 2024 with 17 teams playing under their banner. The league will also have a significantly different feel, adding in some West Coast and Southwest flair after they raided the remains of the Pac-12 to add California and Stanford, before moving into the American Athletic Conference and snagging SMU. It's widely assumed the moves were an effort by the league to get out in front of the likely departure of Florida State (and likely others) in the near future but for now, the ACC sits behind only the Big Ten in terms of league size. Whether the moves will have a tangible effect on the product on the field in 2024 remains unclear, but new blood in the constantly evolving world of college athletics should be a good thing - right?


Power Rankings

1. Florida State Seminoles

Offense: There will be a new face under center in Tallahassee this fall following the graduation of Jordan Travis, although it's a familiar one for most FSU fans. Former Clemson signal-caller D.J. Uiagalelei is back in the ACC after a pit stop at Oregon State, and expected to be a one-year rental for head coach Mike Norvell and this Seminole staff. Uiagalelei has never quite been able to live up to the lofty expectations surrounding him coming out of high school as a five-star prospect, but he's started 40 games in his collegiate career and has proven to be a steady, reliable leader. At the very least, he'll keep the seat warm for backup Brock Glenn, who started the ACC Championship Game last fall and still looks to be the long-term guy here.

There will be plenty of new faces around Uiagalelei. Gone are wide outs Keon Coleman and Johnny Wilson, while tailback Trey Benson went pro after notching 905 yards and 14 touchdowns last season. There appears to be plenty left in the cupboard to replace Benson in the backfield, with Lawrence Toafili still in town and Indiana transfer Jaylin Lucas coming in, but receiver will be interesting. The Seminoles bolstered this room with a slew of transfers in the offseason, namely Jalen Brown from LSU and Malik Benson from Alabama, but it's short on proven names. I see uber-talented sophomore Hykeem Williams as the most likely breakout candidate, while Destyn Hill remains a talent shrouded in mystery despite finally seeing the field for the first time in 2023. Senior Ja'Khi Douglas also seems likely to factor in, but the 5'9" speedster is more of a specialist than a true, every down option.

The Seminole O-Line went through their fair share of ups-and-downs in 2023, but there's reason to believe this is going to be an improved unit this fall. Robert Scott is finally healthy enough to man one of the tackle spots, while transfers T.J. Ferguson and Richie Leonard IV arrive from SEC territory (Alabama and Florida, respectively) and bring Power Four (!) experience.

Things will be an adjustment on this side of the ball for the Seminoles as they begin the post-Jordan Travis era. With that being said, the staff did a fine job plugging holes with transfers as needed, and their work in high school recruiting could pay major dividends this fall. Expect a drop-off, but not a huge one during a year of transition.

Defense: Coordinator Adam Fuller did an elite job with this Florida State defense in 2023 but much like the offense, plenty of new faces will create a stiffer challenge in 2024. Fortunately, there's still significant star power at all three levels, headlined by defensive end Patrick Payton. Payton earned All-ACC honorable mention after tallying 14.5 tackles for loss and seven sacks last fall, but is now the clear-cut guy off the edge with Jared Verse and Braden Fiske gone. That may lead to more attention on him, but the lengthy, slithery end is too good to be contained by double teams - he has a real shot to be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.

Payton will lead the front seven, but the Seminoles will also count on Georgia transfer Marvin Jones Jr. off the edge, plus Darrell Jackson up the middle. Jones never quite got a chance to show what he could do in Athens, but has all the physical tools to be a real force in Tallahassee, while Jackson played in the Orange Bowl after sitting out most of the year and looked the part. 

There will be a new starting linebacker duo for Fuller and LB coach Randy Shannon, but FSU got a nice surprise when D.J. Lundy flipped on his decision to transfer and instead decided to stick around for one more year. Lundy has made 17 starts over his four year FSU career and proven to be a rock-solid defender, although he'll have to grow as a leader in 2024. Who starts alongside him is a complete guess as we stand in early summer, although Alabama transfer Shawn Murphy looks to be on the inside track.

Cornerback Fentrell Cypress II proved to be the real deal in 2023 after coming over from Virginia, and even greater things are expected this fall. Cypress should benefit from a full offseason in the Seminole system, and is talented enough to earn consideration for plenty of accolades, potentially even Jim Thorpe Award consideration. Junior Azareye'h Thomas provides a great complement at the other corner spot, and junior safety Shyheim Brown is another bright spot on the back-end.

Bottom Line: Last season's Playoff snub provides plenty of motivation for Mike Norvell and the 'Noles as he gears up for Year Five at the helm in Tallahassee. However, a step-back should be a reasonable expectation given just how many pieces moved on from the offseason, from Travis and Coleman to Verse, Fiske, and Akeem Dent. Just how large of a step-back will decide on how quickly the new pieces on offense gel and if the transfers can get up to speed. Fortunately, without a clear-cut threat ready to overtake FSU in 2024, albeit with Clemson looming, I still like the Seminoles to repeat as conference champs this fall.


2. Clemson Tigers

Offense: Garrett Riley was supposed to engineer a complete offensive overhaul for the Tigers last fall, but the unit performed pedestrian for a big chunk of 2023 before hitting its stride late in the year. The hope is that this group will be more comfortable with Riley and his philosophy this season and with QB Cade Klubnik running the show, Clemson has a breakout candidate under center.

Much like the team as a whole, Klubnik finished strong and now looks to 2024 as the year it all comes together. He wound up with 2,844 yards and 19 passing touchdowns against nine interceptions as a true sophomore, but will have to showcase more consistency this fall if the Tigers are to overtake Florida State for the ACC crown. Fortunately, he has an abundance of options at receiver back, as sophomores Antonio Williams and Tyler Brown are joined by highly touted newcomers T.J. Moore and Bryant Wesco Jr. Tight end Jake Briningstool also provides a security blanket at the position and has the looks of a future pro.

Losing Will Shipley stings, as the tailback concluded his Clemson career with 2,747 yards and 31 touchdowns. However, the Tigers still boast a proven option in the backfield in senior Phil Mafah, who shouldn't have much issue sliding into the feature role. He'll have the benefit of operating behind an offensive line that returns four starters, with Marcus Tate and Walker Parks moving in the middle and future NFL tackles Tristan Leigh and Blake Miller on the exterior.

There's reason to believe this could be the best Clemson offense since Trevor Lawrence was still in town, with a promising quarterback supported by strong skill positions and a veteran O-Line. Yet, Riley still has something to prove after the ups-and-downs of 2023, and the opener against Georgia could set the tone for the entire season.

Defense: Wes Goodwin hasn't had much problems taking over the reigns of Brent Venables, as the Clemson defense remains as nasty as ever. There's little reason to think that will change in 2024, even with losses at all three levels.

There's massive turnover along the defensive line, but this is one of the premier programs in the country when it comes to developing this position group. Sophomores T.J. Parker and Peter Woods both flashed elite upside last fall and are both breakout candidate as they prepare for 2024. Up the middle, bulldozing seniors Demonte Capehart and Peyton Page will ensure this rush defense doesn't take any sizable step back.

At linebacker, senior Barrett Carter is one of the best anywhere in the country and looks to be a likely first-rounder in the NFL Draft next spring. He'll cause chaos off the edge and plenty of it, but will need help from his fellow linebackers, with two starting spots seemingly up for grabs. I still believe junior Wade Woodaz can take the jump and keep an eye on big-name true freshman Sammy Brown, the highest-ranked recruit at the position in program history. Don't be shocked if he's starting at middle linebacker in short order.

Much like Carter, R.J. Mickens is the veteran leader his respective position group, the secondary, but will need others to emerge alongside him. Corner is a particular concern, without an established pair of starters there. Could this be the year it comes together for junior Jeadyn Lukus? He started four games in 2023 and has had moments, but will now be expected to do more.

Bottom Line: A 4-4 record in the ACC was a bit of a shock from the Tigers, but closing out the year winning their final five could be a sign of things to come in 2024. For all the heat Dabo Swinney has taken for how he has used the transfer portal and NIL in this new age of college football, he remains a strong recruiter and great developer of talent, and there's plenty of it on both sides of the ball. With the Seminoles almost sure to take a slight step backwards, it would not shock me if the Tigers wrestle back the conference crown - especially if Klubnik take the leap that is expected.