Thursday, February 27, 2020

Scouting the Contenders 2020: Kansas Jayhawks

Isaiah Moss, Kansas
As March Madness slowly inches closer and closer, "Scouting the Contenders" takes a look at some of the nation's best teams in a chaotic race, scouts their strengths and weaknesses, and takes a best guess on just how far they could go in the NCAA Tournament. We continue with the nation's new No. 1 team, the Kansas Jayhawks.

Track Record

  • 25-3 overall, 14-1 in the Big 12 
  • In sole possession of first place in the conference
  • Notable Wins: 90-84 over Dayton, 71-56 over BYU, 72-58 over Colorado, 64-61 over Baylor
  • Notable Losses: 68-66 to Duke, 56-55 to Villanova, 67-55 to Baylor
  • 13 consecutive victories

Scouting Report
After taking down Baylor this past weekend, 64-61, Kansas was rewarded with the No. 1 overall ranking in the latest AP Poll. With that ranking combined with their impressive resume top to bottom, the Jayhawks are likely to go into the month of March as the prohibitive NCAA Tournament favorite. It isn't a completely unique position for the KU program, but one that hasn't always been kind. While they made the Final Four in 2018 and the Elite Eight the two years prior, the Jayhawks have not hoisted the National Title since the 2008 campaign. Is this the year they finally get back on top?
Strengths: Bill Self teams are always at their best when they have a steady, level-headed point guard leading the way and a physical, dominating big man on the low block. Just look at their last two teams to play in the National Championship; the 2011-12 edition had an All-American down low in Thomas Robinson, and a veteran guard keeping things running. In 2008, the Jayhawks were led by Mario Chalmers at point guard and down low, they had a number of future NBA guys, namely Darrell Arthur. This 2019 team seems to fit the mold, with an intelligent point guard running the show in Devon Dotson, and an imposing force down low in Udoka Azubuike. Dotson in particular is a player I think is highly underrated on the national level. He really does it all for this Jayhawks team, averaging 18 points per game, 4.1 APG and 4.0 RPG, despite standing just 6'2". Is he ready for a breakout NCAA Tournament appearance, as we've seen from past veteran point guards? It wouldn't surprise me... One of the things that jumps out at you right away about this KU team is their impressive depth. Once Silvio de Sousa returns from his suspension, this is a team that could legitimately go 9-10 players deep, a luxury that not a lot of teams in modern college basketball have. And, the players coming off the bench are far from scrubs either. Sophomore David McCormack is one of the Jayhawks that tends to come off the bench, and he's proven himself as an efficient scorer underneath and shown potential as a rim runner. Swingman Christian Braun is another guy that doesn't start who has caught my attention. He was a highly touted prospect coming out of high school, and you can understand why. He can guard multiple positions at 6'6", and incredibly versatile. Braun can help down in the low post, but is also a prolific shooter, averaging 46 percent from deep on the season. Having these types of guys ready to come in and play a role is a major strength for Kansas, particularly the deeper we get in the season. In a hard fought, physical basketball game during March Madness, it might mean the difference between a win and a loss... College basketball, and particularly March Madness, is nearly impossible to predict. I mean, it is right in the name that this time of year has some unbelievable upsets, and loads of chaos. With that being said, blue bloods of the sport still tend to be the ones taking home the important hardware at the end of the day. Since 2010, the National Champions of the sport have all generally been blue blood programs who are regularly at the top of the college basketball universe, albeit with some exceptions. So, it stands to reason that such a successful program like Kansas, who hasn't won a National Championship in over a decade, is due one soon enough. Is that really a strength? I argue it is, because Bill Self is too good of a coach to only have one National Title on his resume. He has consistently fielded winning teams full of future NBA stars. At some point, Kansas is coming to bring another one back to National Title and with the cyclical nature of sports, 2020 seems like a decent bet. 

Weaknesses: One of the major concerns I have about the Kansas offense is their three-point shooting. Their numbers aren't absolutely dreadful, but they are tied for 81st nationally in three-point percentage at 35.2%. The Jayhawk offense rarely relies on using the three-point line as much as others in the collegiate ranks, but the game has changed. More and more teams are living by the three-ball, and KU has often struggled to keep up. Outside of Braun, there is not a single Jayhawk that shots the ball over a 40 percent clip who shoots the three-point shot regularly. Not even Dotson or Ochai Agbaji, their top two guards, really shot the ball well from downtown. What happens when they get to the NCAA Tournament appearance and face off against a team that leans heavily on the three? Will their offense be able to keep up over the course of 40 minutes? It's a valid question... Another valid offensive concern surrounding the Jayhawks centers on their free throw shooting. They get to the line at a solid rate, but they shoot under 70 percent as a team, a number that seems fairly low for a bonafide National Title contender. Azubuike in particular really struggles at the line, which is somewhat understandable considering the type of player he is. However, you'd like to see him shot better than 43 percent at the stripe, considering how much contact he takes in the low post. It isn't just the big men on this team that could improve in this area; Agbaji, Marcus Garrett and Braun all hover at roughly 70 percent or lower. This lack of strong shooting at the line has already impacted Kansas on the season. In their two close losses during the non-conference slate, to Duke & Villanova, they went a combined 20-36 at the stripe. That is just 56 percent, numbers that simply can't continue into March if this team wants to make a deep run... As mentioned previously, Bill Self's teams have not hoisted a National Title since 2008, and while they have made two National Championship Game appearances in that span, they've also had a bad habit of "choking" games away in March. You need only look at their 2009 or 2015 teams for confirmation that March hasn't been kind to the Jayhawks in the past. The 2009 squad was an overwhelming favorite before they were stunned by Northern Iowa, while the 2015 edition had two future Top 3 Draft picks in Andrew Wiggins & Joel Embiid, but couldn't get past a 10th-seeded Stanford in the second round. Even the teams that have gone farther in the Tournament have been susceptible to close or unfortunate losses on the big stage. Now to be fair, any college basketball program is going to have periods where they can't get it done in March, and I'm not claiming that KU is an annual "choker". However, it is fair to question whether this team has it in them to win six straight at the right time, when everybody is looking to take them down. If they hold on to the No. 1 overall seed heading into March, the pressure on them is at a different magnitude.

Bottom Line: With their current resume, Kansas is nearly a lock to cement a No. 1 seed when Selection Sunday rolls around. They've had a mixed history as top seed, but it's rare for the Jayhawks to have this amount of depth, especially in a wide-open NCAA Tournament field. Of the three teams that I've talked about in my "Scouting the Contenders", I feel the most confident about the Jayhawks but this March also looks like it will be especially chaotic. If this team is the one that will go all the way, they'll have to find a way to either overcome or fix their free throw shooting woes. 

Wednesday, February 19, 2020

Scouting the Contenders: San Diego State Aztecs

Malachi Flynn, San Diego State
As March Madness slowly inches closer and closer, "Scouting the Contenders" takes a look at some of the nation's best teams in a chaotic race, scouts their strengths and weaknesses, and takes a best guess on just how far they could go in the NCAA Tournament. We continue with the nation's lone undefeated remaining, the No. 4 San Diego State Aztecs.

Track Record


  • 26-0 overall, 15-0 in the Mountain West Conference (lone undefeated remaining in Division I basketball)
  • Notable Wins: 76-71 over BYU, 83-52 over Creighton, 83-73 over Iowa, 80-68 over Utah State
  • Highest ranking since 2010-2011 season, when they advanced to the Sweet 16
Scouting Report
The San Diego State Aztecs have been one of the country's most notable surprises in 2019-20, coming out of nowhere to become the lone undefeated remaining in Division I basketball. That success has given the school their highest ranking in a decade, when some guy named Kawhi Leonard led them to the Sweet 16. The chances of them completing an undefeated season are slim, but that doesn't mean this Aztecs team doesn't have the tools to do some damage come March.
Strengths: The makeup of this particular San Diego State squad represents a reality of modern college basketball: the importance of transfers. Three massive pieces on this Aztecs team began their college careers elsewhere, including leading scorer Malachi Flynn. Flynn is a former Washington State Cougar, Yanni Wetzell is from Vanderbilt, while K.J. Feagin came over as a grad transfer from Santa Clara. This creates an interesting mismatch of pieces, but also brings a lot of experience and versatility to this SDSU team. Flynn in particular is used to playing high-level basketball in the Pac-12, and he has looked extremely comfortable running the show for head coach Brian Dutcher. It wouldn't be surprising if that experience and variety ends up being a massive asset come March Madness... I've mentioned before how important I think great defense is to NCAA Tournament runs. Of course, teams that get hot offensively are common during the month of March, but defense carries you through even on off-shooting nights. The good news for San Diego State is that they have quite a strong defense, coming in fifth nationally with 58.2 points allowed per game. They also rank Top 10 in defensive efficiency, showcasing a defense that plays great in straight up man-to-man and rotates incredibly well. It also helps that Flynn really sets the stage on the perimeter; he averages nearly two a game and can attack an offense the length of the entire court. It isn't like those numbers are boosted by completely terrible opponents, either. The Aztecs held Creighton, a Top 15 team, to just 52 and also held an explosive Iowa Hawkeye offense to 73. Nobody is going to get out of a game with SDSU without a fight for the entire 40 minutes, and I think it will be something that can carry them through the rigors of late season college basketball... Playing in the Mountain West, people are going to argue against SDSU's strength of schedule, but they have a bonafide resume. Wins against BYU, Creighton and Iowa in the non-conference are all against likely Tournament teams and inside the MWC, the Aztecs swept preseason favorite Utah State. They also have been absolutely dominating inferior foes; of their 26 wins, 23 of those have been by nine points or more. This isn't some mediocre team squeaking by against weak competition, they legitimately outplaying all competition in a very underrated conference.

Weaknesses: Even with Flynn leading the way and four players currently averaging double-digit points per game, you still wonder if the Aztecs have that guy that can completely take over when needed. Perhaps with their balance on offense, they don't quite need it, but we've seen in the past how important have an alpha (or two) is when it comes to the NCAA Tournament. That isn't to disrespect any of their top scorers, but do they have that killer mentality? Maybe that's something we will have to wait and see on... On the sideline, Brian Dutcher has already had a lengthy coaching career and spent time under Steve Fisher at Michigan during the Fab Five era. He has seen and coached plenty of successful teams, but it's also important to note that this is just his third season as head man of the Aztecs, his first head coaching job. He has been the head coach in the NCAA Tournament just once, which ended up with a heartbreaking loss to Houston. That doesn't mean he is a bad coach, and anybody who has followed his career knows this guy is an excellent basketball mind, but winning in March is just so difficult. Can he make the right adjustments during big moments, on a stage he isn't very used to? It isn't unreasonable to have some concerns there... Past NCAA Tournament success shouldn't change your perception of a current basketball team, as I mentioned in my "Scouting the Contenders" writeup of Baylor earlier this month. However, San Diego State basketball has never gone past the Sweet 16 in program history, even when they had Kawhi Leonard on their roster. When you aren't a program as accustomed to the bigger stages, it is much easier to tense up, or really feel the pressure. Now, this might just be the team to finally reach the Elite Eight and beyond, but it's always much more difficult the first time around.

Bottom Line: Assuming they're able to hold on to a No. 1 seed, San Diego State will be a popular pick to be the first top seed out of the NCAA Tournament, due to the fact they aren't as proven as other top teams, or as consistently good as Gonzaga. I think that may actually lead to the Aztecs being a little bit undervalued come Tournament time; they've proven they can beat legitimately good basketball teams and to win 26 straight at any level of Division I basketball is incredibly impressive. I'd still be interested to see what they do down the stretch in the regular season and during the MWC Tournament, but underestimate this team at your own risk. They shoot the ball well, don't turn it over and play both ends as well as anybody in the country. I really do believe a deep postseason run could be in store, but we'll see how the bracket shapes up. Right now, they're likely to be the No. 1 out East, which could set up an Elite Eight meeting likely with Duke, a chance to really show what they can do. 


Friday, February 14, 2020

Transfer Portal 2020: Ranking the Top 10 Transfers of the Off-Season (So Far)

D'Eriq King to Miami
The recent invention of the transfer portal has made the transfer market as active and important as ever in modern college football. Just look at this past Playoff: three of the four quarterbacks in the field were transfers from other schools and the Heisman winner, Joe Burrow, was as well. There aren't quite as many major names on the move in this year's transfer market, but still a number of guys who will make an impact in 2020 and beyond. I decided to rank the ten most ready to make that impact, but don't be surprised if this list changes the closer we get to September. There are sure to be even more players hitting the portal in the spring and summer, once position battles become clearer.

1. D'Eriq King, QB, Houston to Miami (FL)
D'Eriq King is a reminder that even the best looking quarterback-coach pairings on paper don't always work out that way in practice. King put up over 3,500 yards of total offense and recorded 50 total touchdowns with Houston in 2018, and even greater things were expected this season with the arrival of air raid disciple Dana Holgorsen as head coach. I was so confident in King that he was a Heisman Finalist in my "College Football Preview 2019". However, he never seemed to be on the same page with Holgorsen and within a few weeks of the 2019 campaign it came out that he was going to redshirt and transfer. It's still not completely clear what went down between King and the Cougars to force his transfer, but what is clear is that he is an extremely notable get for Miami, who won the sweepstakes to land him. The senior is a tremendous athlete with a huge arm who should be an immediate upgrade over the Hurricanes' quarterback situation this past fall. King will be the projected starter Day One for the 'Canes, but it will be fascinating to see how he works out in Coral Gables. New Miami OC Rhett Lashlee and him seem like an ideal fit, and there is talent on this Hurricane offense. With that being said, King is still technically making the jump from Group of Five to Power Five, and learning a new system. If things work out, this is an All-Conference level talent, who could prove to be a major win for Manny Diaz and staff.

2. K.J. Costello, QB, Stanford to Mississippi State
Mike Leach's hiring at Mississippi State made waves around the college football world this off-season, and now the QB guru has a new signal-caller to play with. K.J. Costello was a multi-year starter in Palo Alto, but struggled through an injury-plagued 2019 and watched the Cardinal turn to youngster Davis Mills. With Mills clearly the future at the position, Costello decided to move on, giving the Bulldogs a proven QB who has played in big games. Moving from the Pac-12 to the SEC West is a difficult transition, but playing in a Leach offense helps. His quarterbacks have consistently put up huge numbers at every one of his stops, including Anthony Gordon this past season. The key for Costello will be staying healthy, but you could argue playing with the skill position Miss. State currently has is an upgrade for the steady veteran.

3. Jamie Newman, QB, Wake Forest to Georgia
While Georgia has seen a number of players hit the transfer portal over the last few seasons, they also have got some notable wins, top on that list being Jamie Newman. After splitting time in 2018 with Wake Forest, Newman was the clear starter for the Demon Deacons this past fall, putting up 32 total touchdowns and over 3,300 yards of total offense. He opted to transfer in the hopes of competing for the Playoff and National Titles, and UGA certainly gives him an opportunity to do that. Not only will he have plenty of young talent to work with at receiver, namely sophomore George Pickens, but the Bulldogs also brought in Todd Monken to run their offense. Monken is well respected as a passing game specialist, and he has spent significant time in the NFL. If Newman can acclimate to the speed of SEC ball, he could actually be an upgrade in some ways over three-year starter Jake Fromm.

4. Quincy Roche, DE, Temple to Miami (FL)
Coming out of high school, Quincy Roche was a relatively unknown three-star prospect set to stay in his native Northeast and play at Temple. A few years later, Roche is one of the nation's most underrated pass rushers, coming off a season in which he finished with 13 sacks, tied for seventh nationally. He was particularly unblockable in the month of November, finishing off with ten sacks in the month. Roche opted to enter the graduate transfer market, hoping for more exposure as he finishes up his collegiate career and looks ahead to the NFL. He was yet another big transfer portal victory for Diaz and this Hurricanes staff, and they have to be thrilled at pairing him next to one of the country's top young defensive ends, Gregory Rosseau. Roche is another guy that might see a little bit of a jump up in competition, but the American Athletic is essentially a sixth Power Five league, and the numbers speak for themselves. If the 'Canes aren't near the top in the ACC with him, Rosseau and former UCLA transfer Jaelen Phillips, I'd be shocked.

5. Cade Mays, OL, Georgia to Tennessee
A former five-star recruit, Cade Mays has been a staple on Georgia's offensive line in his two seasons in Athens, playing in 28 games and starting 18 of them. At 6'6", 318 pounds, Mays is an ideal offensive guard in the SEC, and his transfer came as a notable surprise to some not plugged into the wacky situation for him and the Bulldogs. To begin with, Mays lost his OL coach when Sam Pittman decided to take the head coaching gig at Arkansas. Yet, that is not the only issue, with a bizarre situation occurring involving Mays' dad. While at a UGA dinner in 2017, Kevin Mays' pinky finger became stuck in a folding chair, resulting in him losing much of the finger. While that didn't stop Cade from following through with his commitment to the 'Dawgs, legal questions surrounding Kevin and UGA have led to a disconnect between the family and school. As a result, Cade hit the transfer portal early in the off-season, ending up at Tennessee, his hometown school. It remains to be seen whether he'll be able to gain immediate eligibility for 2020, but if he does, the Volunteers get an instant starter who can play at multiple spots on the O-Line. While this is a difficult situation for the Mays family, Tennessee has to be pumped at adding such a proven O-Linemen to their roster, a guy who could be getting even better, as he grows and matures.

6. Jake Bentley, QB, South Carolina to Utah
Jake Bentley's decision to transfer away from South Carolina didn't come as much of a shock, but his destination? That was certainly a surprise. Bentley is another transfer QB who is a former multi-year starter, and still possibly an NFL guy. After a strong end to his 2016 campaign he began the past three seasons as the starter and had some moments, including throwing for 27 TD's in 2018. However, turnovers began to be a real problem for Bentley in his time with the Gamecocks and an injury early in 2019 threw a wrench into the situation. Freshman backup Ryan Hilinski impressed in his time as starter, forcing Bentley's hand to go elsewhere. In the end, he chose Utah, a place where he had no obvious ties and very far away from his roots in the Southeast. It does make sense in terms of playing time; with Ute QB Tyler Huntley graduating, Bentley looks like he'll be able to come in right away and start. But, he isn't an ideal fit in a very old-fashioned Utah offense, and there are notable questions for the Utes at the receiver position. I still think it is notable any time a QB who has thrown 55 touchdowns in his career heads elsewhere, but will it work out? Only time will tell.

7. Antonio Alfano, DL, Alabama to Colorado
While the first six names on this list are guys who have played years of college football and have a healthy amount of experience, Antonio Alfano has not played a single snap at the FBS level. However, that doesn't mean that he doesn't have the chance to be a real impact transfer in the future for Colorado. Alfano was a five-star recruit coming out of New Jersey who was one of the major gets for Nick Saban and Alabama in the 2019 cycle. But, things didn't work out in Tuscaloosca, with Alfano ending up skipping practices and class in September. There are reports that it was because of a severe sickness to his ailing grandmother, but Alabama is also sometimes a very difficult place to adjust to for 18 and 19-year old kids. The hope here is that a change of scenery will work wonders for the defensive linemen, and he is immediately the most talented pass rusher on this Colorado roster. Alfano was certainly looking forward to learning under former Alabama and Georgia assistant Mel Tucker, a well-respected defensive mind, but Tucker just recently accepted the Michigan State head coaching job. Whoever steps into the role won't have it easy when it comes to the young defender, but it's obvious that his talent could pay major dividends for this team.

8. Brenton Cox, LB, Georgia to Florida
Brenton Cox is another former Georgia Bulldog who opted to head elsewhere in the SEC East, joining Dan Mullen and the Florida Gators. Much like a lot of other names on this list, Cox is a former high profile recruit that struggled to adjust to life at this original school. He did flash some potential in 2018, with 20 tackles and one sack, but had a turbulent off-season. Cox was arrested in April for marijuana possession and after a string of locker room issues, UGA decided it was time to move on. After sitting out all of 2019, Cox is now eligible looking ahead to 2020, but will have to solve some of the personality problems that popped up in Athens. If he can, he can certainly fill a similar role to what Jonathan Greenard did this past season for the Gators. Greenard was a Louisville transfer who, when healthy, was one of the most dominant pass rushers in the SEC (9.5 sacks, 15.5 TFL). Cox has a very similar skill set to Greenard, and he could become quite a force under the tutelage of coordinator Todd Grantham.

9. Damon Hazelton, WR, Virginia Tech to Missouri
With his decision to transfer for his final year of school, Damon Hazelton will be joining his third team in the collegiate ranks. Hazelton began his career at Ball State before making the jump to Virginia Tech, where he had numbers of 102 catches, 1,329 yards and 16 touchdowns in two seasons. Those are rock-solid numbers and the thing is, Hazelton seems like the type of talent who could have done even more in the right offense. He has to be hoping that the right offensive fit exists at Missouri, who really needed another impressive receiving talent. New head coach Eli Drinkwitz has run explosive offenses at multiple stops during his coaching career, most recently at Appalachian State, and will figure out ways to get Hazelton involved. The big question for the former Hokie will be who his quarterback is. Kelly Bryant is set to graduate after a one-season loan in Columbia, leaving the position wide open.

10. Ricky Slade, RB, Penn State to TBD
There were a lot of great candidates for this No. 10 slot, but I think the player that has the most potential to succeed wherever he ends up is former Penn State running back Ricky Slade. Yet another former five-star recruit coming out of high school, Slade looked like he was the next in a line of great PSU running backs, totaling 214 yards in limited action as a freshman. With Miles Sanders off to the NFL, the assumption was that he was going to be the feature back in the Nittany Lion offense. But, the addition of Noah Cain and Devyn Ford as true freshmen, along with the flourishing of Journey Brown, left Slade as the odd man out in a four running back committee. Slade was still able to show flashes, with 257 yards and six touchdowns, but wasn't able to make a large enough impact. His decision to transfer was not at all a surprise with all other backs set to return. His next school is unclear at this point; could he follow former Penn State OC Ricky Rahne to Old Dominion? He is a Virginia native, after all. Or could he stay in the Power Five ranks, going somewhere where he can still get carries while playing at a high level? Either way, I think he is the type of prospect who will really flourish once he gets in the right spot.

Just Missed the Cut

Justin Shorter, WR, Penn State to Florida: Another former high-profile recruit who struggled through injuries and drops during his short time in Happy Valley.
Jarren Williams, QB, Miami (FL) to TBD: Had a brutal end to 2019, but has proven he can make things happen in the right situation. Brings solid experience to any team he might end up on.
Xavier Kelly, DL, Clemson to TBD: Forced out of Clemson because there was just so much talent in that D-Line. Likely to end up at Arkansas, where he should be able to make a major impact.
Rico Bussey, WR, North Texas to TBD: Was a 1,000-yard receiver in 2018 before injuries took away '19. Could he make the jump to Power Five? Reportedly, Nebraska and Miami are two of the schools that have interest.
Isaiah Pryor, DB, Ohio State to Notre Dame: 42 tackles and six pass deflections in his first two seasons at Ohio State, but forced out due to their talent on the back-end. Could be an immediate starter for the Fighting Irish.
Tarik Black, WR, Michigan to TBD: Simply was not able to stay healthy in his time in Ann Arbor. Looked like a future star in 2017, but career has taken a major detour since then.
Khalil Herbert, RB, Kansas to Virginia Tech: Ran for 663 yards with the Jayhawks in 2017, but fell on the depth chart due to the success of Pooka Williams. Will compete with Rutgers transfer Raheem Blackshear for carries in Blacksburg.
Joey Gatewood, QB, Auburn to Kentucky: Lost the QB competition this off-season to freshman Bo Nix and was used as a short yardage QB as a result. Probably not a starter in 2020 assuming Terry Wilson comes back healthy, but watch out in '21.
Feleipe Franks, QB, Florida to Arkansas: Kyle Trask's success as UF starter really undermined Franks, but this guy still had 2,457 yards and 24 touchdowns in 2018 and is a proven SEC starter.
Jovan Swann, DL, Stanford to TBD: Had 10 career sacks over three seasons at Stanford. Not any NFL guy, but a solid plug-and-play option at a number of Power Five schools.

Friday, February 7, 2020

Scouting the Contenders 2020: Baylor Bears

MaCio Teague, Baylor
As March Madness slowly inches closer and closer, "Scouting the Contenders" takes a look at some of the nation's best teams in a chaotic race, scouts their strengths and weaknesses, and takes a best guess on just how far they could go in the NCAA Tournament. We begin with the nation's current No. 1 team, the Baylor Bears.

Track Record

  • 20-1 overall record, 9-0 in Big 12
  • Notable Wins: 87-78 over Villanova, 63-58 over Arizona, 53-52 over Butler, 67-55 over Kansas
  • Only loss to Washington, 67-64 (12-11 record)
  • First No. 1 ranking since early 2017
  • 19 consecutive victories

Scouting Report
In a season where the narrative in college basketball is that there is no National Title favorite, the Baylor Bears certainly look like they could take up the mantle. The Bears have now won 19 straight games, with their only loss on the season coming against Washington in their second game of the year. It hasn't been like they're beating up on inferior foes either; during that span, they've beat five ranked teams, including beating Kansas by 12 in Phog Allen Fieldhouse. That dominance has helped them lock down the No. 1 ranking in the country, locking down 49 first-place votes in the latest AP Poll.
Strengths: Veteran-laden teams are a rarity in the world of modern college basketball, but those that do have the experience tend to have a significant advantage over the rest. That appears to be the case in Waco, who is led by a group of players who have been in the program for a number of years. In fact, only one freshman has seen minutes at all this season for the Bears, Jackson Moffatt, who has seen a total of 10 minutes the entire season. Leading the charge for BU is sophomore Jared Butler, senior Freddie Gillespie, junior Mark Vital and junior MaCio Teague. A lot of these guys have been through the rigors of the lengthy college basketball campaign, and have played in March before. That is huge in any league, and in any region of the bracket. It has to be considered the most notable strength of this team...The other thing that really jumps out at you with Baylor is their length and size. There are no seven-footers on this roster, but at every position, they can plug in guys with size and toughness, giving them an edge on both sides of the court. It enables them to play a very physical brand of man-to-man defense. You'll notice any team that tries to attack Baylor off the dribble has to work for every inch, and they force you to run your offense far away from the hoop. There are five different players on this roster that average at least one steal per game, because they are able to use that length to get in the way of passing lanes, and create turnovers... Defense as a whole really sets the stage for the Bears. That isn't to say that their offense can't be explosive when it needs to be, but BU is at their best when their defense is playing well. Coincidentally, that defense has been superb all year, which might just be the reason they sit at 20-1. The Bears allow just 58.4 points per game, which comes in fifth nationally. It isn't like they don't see good offenses in the Big 12, but they are just so tough to score on. Their ability to push you out to the perimeter and force you to shoot the three-ball has been effective all year. College teams just aren't able to hit the three ball consistently enough to score against this team. Even if they are able to get down low, Gillespie ends up cleaning up a lot of possessions, averaging 2.3 blocks per game on the season.

Weaknesses: Nobody is going to question the great job that Scott Drew has done leading the Baylor basketball program. When he took over in the early 2000's, this program nearly got the NCAA's "death penalty", but Drew has built them into a consistent winner in the always-tough Big 12. With that being said, the NCAA Tournament hasn't been kind to the Bears under Drew. They did make two Elite Eight in a three-year span from 2010-2012, but since then, they haven't been back. That isn't to say they haven't won Tournament games, but Drew has been simply out-coached in a few of their March losses. He's proven himself as a superb recruiter and a strong developer of talent, but can he win more consistently on the sport's biggest stage? This team will tell us a lot... When compared to some of the other teams battling it out for a No. 1 seed, this Bears squad pales in comparison with how they shoot the three-ball. They aren't a terrible shooting team, but their top three scoring guards, Butler, Teague & Mitchell, all shoot below 40% from downtown. That might not be considered these guy's strengths, and others on the team are shooting the ball well, such as Devonte Bandoo, who hits on a 43 percent clip from three. Yet, it still is worrying in the world of modern college basketball when a team simply doesn't have great numbers from three. Baylor hasn't really needed to have great numbers this year, but what happens when they run into a hot shooting team come March? It's reasonable to have questions about if they're able to keep up... Simply put, you'd think the craziness of this college basketball season would catch up with the Bears at some point. That isn't a weakness for this Baylor team, and it doesn't mean that they are going to be upset early in the NCAA Tournament. However, their remaining schedule is full of trap games, beyond the already difficult matchups with West Virginia and Texas Tech. Road trips to Texas, Oklahoma and TCU will all be interesting. Losing there won't kill Baylor's season, but it could certainly knock the Bears off the one-seed line.

Bottom Line: There is no perfect team in college basketball this season, there never is. But, with an imperfect field of teams, Baylor stands near the top as one of the strongest. Their experience, depth and length are very impressive, and they have a proven resume. The fact that Baylor has only been to the Final Four once in their entire history makes me a little bit wary of locking them in to make a deep Tournament run, but history shouldn't disqualify a great team from going deep. I feel much more confident about this Bears squad than most of the rest currently sitting on the 1-2 seed lines. I think that an Elite Eight trip at the very least seems like a reasonable expectation, if they can continue this current play.

Sunday, February 2, 2020

CFB National Signing Day 2020 Preview & Analysis

Julian Fleming, Ohio State Commit
Recruiting has always been a wild, competitive and sometimes, shady, part of college football. Nowadays, its importance is as great as it has ever been, with players playing younger and younger. Just look at the National Championship in 2019, which featured a duel between a true freshman and a true sophomore quarterback. With that in mind, I decided to delve deeper into the 2020 recruiting cycle, which will conclude next Wednesday, February 5th with the second of two National Signing Days. I break down the surefire stars from the class, the players who could be flipping to different schools come Signing Day, and my own favorite sleepers.

The Future Superstars

Bryan Bresee, DL, Committed to Clemson
From: Damascus, MD
Height & Weight: 6'5", 290 pounds
Composite Ranking: 1
Clemson has become a factory for Defensive Line talent over the last few seasons, and the next in line appears to be Bryan Bresee. Bresee is rated as the No. 2 prospect from 247Sports, No. 1 from Rivals and No. 3 on ESPN. He already looks like a seasoned veteran at 6'5", 290 pounds, but it will be interesting to see whether he lines up inside at the tackle position or if the Tigers transition him to end. Either way, he has all the tools you look for in a dominant D-Linemen, and should be able to see snaps right away.

Julian Fleming, WR, Committed to Ohio State
From: Catawissa, PA
Height & Weight: 6'2", 199 pounds
Composite Ranking: 3
Ryan Day is one of the premier play-callers in college football, and he'll have the opportunity to add another dynamic piece to his offense in Julian Fleming. Brian Hartline, the former Buckeye receiver and current top-notch recruiter, was able to land Fleming away from a number of other blue bloods including Alabama and Clemson. He has the talent and route running ability to also play right away, in much the same way this year's five-star freshman receiver Garrett Wilson did. Fleming is a true multi-sport athlete, as a star in basketball and track.

Justin Flowe, LB, Committed to Oregon
From: Upland, CA
Height & Weight: 6'2", 225 pounds
Composite Ranking: 6
With USC's recent struggles, California has become wide-open for any top program in college football, and Oregon just happened to snag the No. 2 prospect in the talent-rich state. Flowe's a prototypical college football inside linebacker, with good size, excellent closing speed and incredible instincts. He'll pair with fellow five-star inside linebacker Noah Sewell in the heart of the Duck defense, assuming he sticks through his commitment. He could possibly be on flip watch, as the USC Trojans still appear to be a long-shot contender. He took an official visit to USC in mid-December just over a month ago.

Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Committed to Ohio State
From: Cincinnati, OH
Height & Weight: 6'7", 290 pounds
Composite Ranking: 9
The top-rated offensive linemen in the 2020 cycle is Paris Johnson Jr., who already looks like an NFL player. Johnson is a massive physical specimen who can fit in basically any type of offense, which will be crucial for the Buckeyes going forward. He has the look of a program staple at left tackle, and it was huge for Ohio State to keep him in-state, away from a number of SEC schools that were going after him, including Alabama, LSU and Georgia.

Desmond Evans, DE, Committed to North Carolina
From: Sanford, NC
Height & Weight: 6'6", 235 pounds
Composite Ranking: 43
Mack Brown's rebuild continues on pace in Chapel Hill, and he has two absolute studs coming in from the 2020 cycle in Desmond Evans and Myles Murphy, both D-Linemen. People are a little bit more split on Desmond Evans. ESPN has him as the No. 2 prospect in the Class, but he is a four-star in the composite rankings. Either way, you have to be impressed by his length and upper body power, which will continue to be honed in the collegiate ranks. I think he'll absolutely dominate in the ACC Coastal for years to come.


The Possible Flips

Jordan Burch, DL, Committed to South Carolina
From: Columbia, SC
Height & Weight: 6'5", 275 pounds
Composite Ranking: 8
Jordan Burch is a fascinating character to watch in this particular recruiting class. He has been rated as high as the No. 2 player in this class by a number of different recruiting services, but has dropped out of the Top 10 on both Rivals and 247Sports. Burch is also interesting because of his surprising commitment to South Carolina during the first signing period. Even as the hometown school, South Carolina was still shocking in a few ways, and Burch hasn't exactly followed through, not yet officially signing with the school. He recently took an official visit to LSU just under a week ago, and the Tigers still remain very much in the hunt. There's also still a chance that Clemson, who was once the favorite for Burch, could make a run at the elite defensive end.

Broderick Jones, OT, Committed to Georgia
From: Lithonia, GA
Height & Weight: 6'5", 298 pounds
Composite Ranking: 11
As an in-state prospect who committed to Georgia all the way back in 2018, Broderick Jones has long been projected as a future offensive tackle for the Bulldogs. Although there remains a very strong chance he still follows through and signs with the 'Dawgs, Jones is not necessarily a lock. In the last two weeks, Jones has taken official visits to Arkansas, Illinois and Auburn. There are some close to the recruit who think Auburn has a legit chance to flip him, but the Bulldogs landing Matt Luke as their new O-Linemen coach might be able to keep Jones.

Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Committed to Georgia Tech
From: Dalton, GA
Height & Weight: 5'9", 171 pounds
Composite Ranking: 75
Even though they had a tough 3-9 season on the field, Geoff Collins & Georgia Tech have hit the recruiting trail hard, and Jahmyr Gibbs is the gem of their Top 25 class. Gibbs committed to the Yellow Jackets last spring, but recently a number of other schools have been attempting a late push. Over the last few weeks, Gibbs has taken official visits to Ohio State, LSU and Florida, with the Gators also taking an in-home visit. Whoever snags the four-star running back is going to get a really impressive talent; Gibbs has home run potential, and a compact frame that should be able to hold up in big-time college football.

Jalen Berger, RB, Committed to Wisconsin
From: Ramsey, NJ
Height & Weight: 6'0", 205 pounds
Composite Ranking: 135
As a running back prospect from New Jersey who committed to Wisconsin, Jalen Berger is reminiscent of former Badger great Jonathan Taylor. However, there remains a chance that Berger could be flipped as Signing Day arrives. New Rutgers head coach Greg Schiano has made landing the running back a top priority, and locking down the state is his top priority with all the talent that flows through New Jersey. UCLA also remains on the outside looking in on the prospect, as he took an official visit there about a month ago.

The Sleepers

Marcus Henderson, OG, Uncommitted
From: Memphis, TN
Height & Weight: 6'5", 300 pounds
Composite Ranking: 340
Nashville has always been a place that produces high quality football talent, and offensive guard Marcus Henderson is one of the latest big-name talents. Henderson was a monster over his time at Memphis University School in the city and at 6'5", 300 pounds he already has pretty ideal size. He has significant interest from a number of SEC schools, but as of right now, it looks like Ole Miss has the inside track on him. He'll need to bulk up even more if he is to play interior line in the SEC, but he would be a nice get for Lane Kiffin as he attempts to round out the Rebels' recruiting class. He's the type of big mover in the middle that can help Kiffin's run attack really rumble.

Mason Garcia, QB, Committed to East Carolina
From: Myrtle Beach, SC
Height & Weight: 6'4", 218 pounds
Composite Ranking: 384
Mason Garcia has already signed with East Carolina so don't expect any fireworks from him on this upcoming Signing Day, but he's a prospect that could be a really fascinating sleeper as he begins his collegiate career. Don't let the fact that he signed at a Group of Five school fool you, this guy had the talent to end up at a Power Five. He possesses ideal size at 6'4", with a huge arm and serious upside as he polishes off his game. ECU head coach Mike Houston made a name for himself for developing great quarterbacks, which he continued during an extremely successful tenure at James Madison. He'll do great things with Garcia, who is the 14th-rated pro-style QB in this Class.

Kelvontay Dixon, ATH, Uncommitted
From: Carthage, TX
Height & Weight: 6'0", 180 pounds
Composite Ranking: 342
Much like Henderson, Kelvontay Dixon is an uncommitted prospect who sits just outside the Top 300 in this Class. However, 247Sports is even higher on him, as they have him rated as their 270th prospect and 12th-rated athlete. Dixon is a super versatile playmaker that can really be plugged in anywhere and make things happen. He's a really valuable type of recruit for any school, whether it be P5 or Group of Five. Dixon is currently projected to stay in-state and likely land with Tom Herman and the Texas Longhorns, but both Houston & UTSA seem to be in play. As the younger brother of Longhorns' tailback Keontay Ingram, it would make sense for him to land in Austin.

Savion Williams, WR, Uncommitted
From: Marshall, TX
Height & Weight: 6'5", 205 pounds
Composite Ranking: 449
Another Texas guy that I really like as a sleeper is Savion Williams, out of Marshall, Texas. Although rated as four-star from 247Sports, he's pretty low in the composite rankings, but he has huge potential. This past season, he played quarterback and led his team to the district championship, but he fits more as a receiver at the next level. Standing at approximately 6'5" with long arms, Williams has a massive catch radius, even if his athleticism isn't at the level of other receivers in this cycle. He has the tools to be a lethal red zone threat, if he can develop in the right system. Williams is also worth a watch because he is not only uncommitted, but he could go any number of places. My bet would be Sam Pittman and Arkansas, but TCU remains a heavy favorite, as well as SMU. He took an official visit to TCU last week.

Jonathan Mann, WR, Committed to Minnesota
From: Rosemount, MN
Height & Weight: 6'3", 205 pounds
Composite Ranking: 723
Mann is another prospect who has already signed, so don't expect any fireworks coming from the receiver this Signing Day. However, I think he's an important player to highlight as a sleeper in this Class, as he seems like he'll be an ideal fit in the Minnesota offense. The Minnesota native is a tremendous athlete who can be used in a variety of ways. He should be able to acclimate quickly to the Gophers and P.J. Fleck, who has a track record of producing wide out talent. Fleck, a former wide out himself, produced a first-round WR at Western Michigan in Corey Davis, and looks like he has two more in Tyler Johnson & Rashod Bateman. Mann may be going for a redshirt in 2020, but with his tools and fit in this offense, he is a future star.