Gunner Stockton, Georgia
First Round
Byes: (1) Indiana Hoosiers, (2) Ohio State Buckeyes, (3) Georgia Bulldogs, (4) Texas Tech Red Raiders
(9) Alabama Crimson Tide @ (8) Oklahoma Sooners
It's a rematch in the first game of the 2025-26 College Football Playoff. Oklahoma outlasted the Crimson Tide the first time the two met in mid-November, in a game that essentially vaulted them into the field. Now, Alabama is looking for vengeance on the road in Norman.
Contrary to what we became so accustomed to during the Lincoln Riley years, it's the defense that sets the tone for this Sooners team. They allow just under 14 points per contest, and have the nastiest front seven in the country. But, can the offense do enough to beat Alabama for a second time? Amazingly, Oklahoma came out victorious despite just 212 yards of total offense and after going 3-13 on third down. John Mateer has not been himself since his thumb injury, but the ground game too has lacked the bite necessary to complement the defense.
Three turnovers are what doomed Alabama during the first matchup, but they looked the better team. It will be interesting to see how they respond after the SEC Championship Game loss, a game that wasn't very competitive. Was that the type of loss that will serve as an extra layer of motivation for a Playoff run, or an indication this team has completely faded down the stretch? I find myself leaning towards the former, because this team is far too talented to go down without a fight. Oklahoma may be able to muck this one up, but it's tough to beat any team twice during a season in this modern age of college football.
The Pick: Alabama, 27 Oklahoma, 20
(10) Miami Hurricanes @ (7) Texas A&M Aggies
Two teams playing in their first ever College Football Playoff, these two programs are eager to prove themselves on the grand stage. A&M suffered quite the hiccup with a loss to Texas on Black Friday in a game that exposed some notable flaws. The Aggies struggled to run the ball, couldn't stop the Longhorns the other way, and weren't as physical as they needed to be.
Miami suffered a few rough moments themselves in the middle part of the season, but the season-opening Notre Dame win and four straight victories to conclude the year was enough for them to gain entry into the field. This is a team with a clear X-factor: quarterback Carson Beck is going to make or break their fortunes. He threw six interceptions in their two losses this year, which came by a combined nine points. If he can't take care of the ball in this one, the Aggies are most certainly the type of opportunistic team that will capitalize on those mistakes.
For A&M, the offensive story has been an inconsistent one. Marcel Reed has plenty of moments of brilliance and the receivers are an explosive group, but there remains plenty of streakiness in his game. I also worry about this offensive line facing down the fearsome Hurricane defensive front, with Rueben Bain Jr. and company ready to show out. You also have to wonder how the staff shakeups are going to play out for the Aggies. Offensive coordinator Colin Klein is staying on through the Playoff after accepting the head coaching job at his alma mater, Kansas State. The same is true of defensive coordinator Jay Bateman. But, you have to think the fact both have one foot out the door is going to have an impact, and it's not a challenge the Hurricanes are dealing with.
The Pick: Miami, 31 Texas A&M, 28
(11) Tulane Green Wave @ (6) Ole Miss Rebels
Much like Texas A&M, these two teams are in major transition mode. Tulane head coach Jon Sumrall is officially moving on to Florida, but he's always sticking around for the College Football Playoff. The same can't be said of Lane Kiffin, who is officially gone and has taken several members of the Ole Miss staff with him.
Despite the turnover in Oxford, we do have a clear picture of what this Rebel team will look to do on Saturday. Quarterback Trinidad Chambliss leads a high-flying offense that includes star tailback Kewan Lacy and an abundance of options on the perimeter. Even without Lane in town, this is a group that has looked the part all season long and has to be eager to show out against a good Tulane defense - but one that ultimately is a Group of Five defense.
Springing an upset of the 11-1 Rebels will require some magic from the Green Wave and BYU transfer Jake Retzlaff at quarterback. The team leader in passing and running, Retzlaff has been a major addition to the roster after coming over late in the offseason. Retzlaff has a deep group of receivers to throw the ball to, with five different players eclipsing 300 yards on the season. But, it's an offense that lacks a ton of star power, and you do wonder whether Retzlaff is going to have the support he needs to make something happen.
This is a game that is also a rematch - with Ole Miss winning the first meeting in dominant fashion, 45-10. Tulane will have an opportunity to right their wrongs and will have more time to prepare, but there's such a difference on the depth chart between these two. Perhaps this stays close into the second half, but I still see Ole Miss running away with it eventually.
The Pick: Ole Miss, 41 Tulane, 21
(12) James Madison Dukes @ (5) Oregon Ducks
Duke's win in the ACC Championship Game secured James Madison an unlikely trip to the College Football Playoff. Their reward? The 11-1 Oregon Ducks in Autzen Stadium. The highest-ranked team not to receive a first-round bye, the Ducks unsurprisingly enter as heavy favorites.
Oregon is another team working through turnover, as both their coordinators were poached for head coaching jobs. Still, the talent on the roster is undeniable. QB Dante Moore could be in the mix to be the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft next spring, there are unlimited options at the other skill positions, and the defense allows just 14.8 PPG. Perhaps most important for Oregon in this game is the superior edge they'll have in the trenches, with several future NFL linemen on both sides of the ball.
James Madison may not have the big names of a team like Oregon, but this is a fun offense. QB Alonza Barnett III can break things open with his arm and legs, and tailback Wayne Knight is supremely underrated, a guy who ran for 1,263 yards on the regular season. But, is the offensive line going to be able to withstand what is sure to be a relentless Oregon pass rush? They are going to have to be creative with simply moving the ball, quite a challenge for head coach Bob Chesney, who by the way is another coach heading to different pastures, as he's already taken the UCLA job.
It's a cool story to have James Madison in the field, but these two are operating in completely different stratospheres. Add in the fact the Ducks have to be playing with somewhat of a chip on their shoulder after losing in their first Playoff game last year as the top overall seed, I see no reason to believe this will be a close one.
The Pick: Oregon, 45 James Madison, 17
Quarterfinals
Cotton Bowl: (10) Miami Hurricanes vs. (2) Ohio State Buckeyes
Over two decades after Ohio State overcame the Miami Hurricanes to win the 2003 BCS National Championship in controversial the two are back in the quarterfinals. Ohio State has to be hungry after losing their first game of the season to Indiana, while the 'Canes have to be hoping the A&M win in the first round provides the momentum they need for a run.
This is an excellent Miami defense, but even they have to be worried about the cadre of weapons at the disposal of the Buckeyes. Julian Sayin leads it all at quarterback, but Jeremiah Smith, Carnell Tate, and Max Klare can overwhelm even the best defenses. The Buckeyes have also found their ground game, as Bo Jackson has cemented himself as the go-to guy, surpassing 1,000 yards on the season. For even the best defenses, finding a way to contain all these playmakers over four quarters is a lot to ask - especially when we've seen Ohio State hit another gear in the Playoff.
Not turning the ball over is certainly the most important X-factor for Carson Beck and this Miami offense. But, how effective will this entire group be against the Buckeyes? I think the offensive line, which Mario Cristobal has built up in a major way, will hold up. But, moving the ball against a back seven that includes two players likely to go Top 5 in the NFL Draft next spring is a lot to ask of the 'Canes. Beyond wide out Malachi Toney, this offense just doesn't have a lot that consistently scares you.
There's no shortage of talent at a place like Miami, and Cristobal delivered the long-awaited Playoff debut. They have the athletes to give a team like Ohio State a game, but I'm not sure the pieces work together in the way they need to do in order to pull off an upset.
The Pick: Ohio State, 34 Miami, 17
Orange Bowl: (5) Oregon Ducks vs. (4) Texas Tech Red Raiders
This is the potential quarterfinal matchup I am most excited for. Both Oregon and Texas Tech have invested heavily in their respective rosters, and the result is two teams that resemble NFL teams more so than college ones. There's always motivation in these games, but both these teams have their own unique goals, too. Oregon has been one of the country's best programs for some time now, but is still searching for that elusive National Title. Texas Tech is having their best season in nearly two decades, but still trying to prove they belong. The result should be a fascinating one in Miami Gardens.
Moore is the big name for this Oregon offense, but I am curious to see how the Ducks use their other weapons. How do they spit the workload of an incredibly deep backfield? Who else do they feature out wide beyond Dakorien Moore and Kenyon Sadiq? Most importantly, taking care of the ball is going to be paramount. Texas Tech linebacker Jacob Rodriguez has forced 11 turnovers himself this year, and the Red Raiders have flipped numerous games this season with a timely interception. We haven't see Dante Moore on this type of stage very often, and you have to wonder how he is going to respond.
I've been hesitant to buy in on Texas Tech this fall, but this team has proven their worth as the Big 12 Champion. Their lone defeat came when starting QB Behren Morton was hurt against Arizona State, and they've been absolutely decimating the competition over the last couple months. Morton's health is a storyline to watch - the veteran is one of the nation's best when healthy, but he's perennially hurt and backup Will Hammond is done for the year.
This has all the makings of a slugfest. I'm not sure it's going to be a high-scoring one, but instead the type of grind it out game that will remind many of early 2010s SEC football. This feels like one that is going to be won on the margins, where the little things are going to decide the victor. Oregon is more accustomed to this stage, and Dan Lanning has an edge on the sidelines. I like the Ducks to come out with what be an ugly win.
The Pick: Oregon, 21 Texas Tech, 17
Rose Bowl: (9) Alabama Crimson Tide vs. (1) Indiana Hoosiers
How strange it will be to see Alabama meeting up with Indiana in the College Football Playoff - with the Hoosiers as the favorite. The Hoosiers are certainly no fluke, building on the magical 2024 with a truly dominant 2025 campaign, all led by Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza at quarterback.
Mendoza certainly is not afraid of the big game - his performances against Oregon and Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game are evidence of that. He's further helped by a veteran supporting cast that knows their role, and plays it to perfection on offense. It's an interesting challenge for an Alabama defense that has plenty of talent, but has struggled to develop consistency week to week.
My greater question is whether Alabama will be able to score enough points the other way to topple the Hoosiers. Ty Simpson and this Alabama receiver corps are quite the combo, but the complete lack of any type of rushing attack has made this team far too one-dimensional. On defense, Indiana may look a lot of the NFL guys of other top National Title contenders, but they are incredibly well-coached, disciplined, and sound in what they do. Their performance against Julian Sayin, Jeremiah Smith and company answered any remaining questions I had about this group.
We did see the eight seed upset the top overall seed in last year's Rose Bowl, when Ohio State came out swinging for the fences and Oregon couldn't mount a comeback. Alabama is a good enough team to go on a run, but I'd argue Indiana is an even stronger No. 1 seed than the Ducks last year. I'm taking the Hoosiers to get to the semis.
The Pick: Indiana, 28 Alabama, 23
Sugar Bowl: (6) Ole Miss Rebels vs. (3) Georgia Bulldogs
It will be yet another Playoff rematch, as Ole Miss looks for revenge against a Georgia team that beat them 43-35 in October. Certainly things have changed in a big way since that loss, their only of the season, for Ole Miss but so too have things for the Georgia Bulldogs.
Through much of the first half of the season, it felt like Georgia was still hitting their stride. They were still winning, but it did feel like the Bulldogs may be holding something back. Without a doubt, this team has found it, with the most dominant second half of the season of anyone in the country not named Indiana. They are playing their best football on both sides of the ball at this point, and have to be sensing some blood in the water with so many questions still surrounding the Rebels.
The Rebels did jump out to a lead the last time these two faced off, but they struggled to run the ball all game long and the offense sputtered down the stretch. It also happened to be one of Gunner Stockton's best games of the season for the Bulldogs, and I do still have questions about this Ole Miss defense. Aside from Suntarine Perkins at linebacker, it's been tough to see a real identity for this unit, and they've struggled to stop the big play.
I do think we may get a vintage Georgia game in this one. Kirby Smart knows he has the athletes do it, and always manages to get the Bulldogs up for the most important games. I envision a game where they run the ball down the throat of the Rebels, and play aggressive defense the other way. Ole Miss could make it a game as they did the first time, but this Bulldog team is on a mission.
The Pick: Georgia, 35 Ole Miss, 21
Semifinals
Fiesta Bowl: (3) Georgia Bulldogs vs. (2) Ohio State Buckeyes
What a matchup in the semifinals at the Fiesta Bowl in Glendale. Two of the sport's behemoths, two of the last three National Champions, and two teams that will be sending off a bunch of players off to the NFL next spring. Ohio State technically enters as the higher seed, but it would not surprise if it was the Bulldogs who were favored entering this one.
Sayin going up against Stockton is quite an interesting quarterback battle. Sayin was originally at Alabama before transferring over to Ohio State, and after waiting a year behind Will Howard, he exploded into the Heisman conversation this year. Stockton waited for years behind several Georgia quarterbacks and has made the most of his opportunity, finishing seventh in Heisman voting. Sayin feels like the flashier of the two, but Stockton's clutch plays have kept Georgia alive all season long.
The two defenses will also be quite a battle. It's interesting, Georgia doesn't quite have the big-name NFL Draft prospects of the Buckeyes, but it's hard to argue against the results. The Bulldog rush defense in particular has been nasty all season long, not allowing 150 yards in a single game this season, which they surrendered five times last fall. Ohio State is fine letting you take away the running game with these receivers, but you have to question whether they have the physicality to match what the 'Dawgs will throw at them.
If this game does indeed happen, it feels like a true coin flip, particularly without a true homefield advantage. Yet, Georgia seems to have the clear momentum with what they've done the last two months, and this team just finds ways to win.
The Pick: Georgia, 27 Ohio State, 26
Peach Bowl: (5) Oregon Ducks vs. (1) Indiana Hoosiers
Indiana's win over Oregon earlier in the year put the college football world on notice that this team was a legitimate National Title contender. What do they do for an encore? The Ducks will hope to have learned from the loss in the first matchup, a game that seemed to catch them off guard in the loss.
This quarterback battle will feature two players both in the mix to be the top overall pick in next spring's NFL Draft. Mendoza has the accolades, but Dante Moore's ability to create with his legs and get the ball down the field makes him a dangerous weapon. Moore did struggle last time these two played - throwing two interceptions as the Duck offense ground to a halt, gaining just 267 yards of total offense. But you get the sense he'll be more prepared in this matchup, and this Oregon team will get more from their receivers. There's also a chance we could see the return of Evan Stewart, who has missed the entire season but is listed as questionable heading into the CFB Playoff. Expected to be their No. 1 option heading into the year, a Stewart return would be a game-changer for the Ducks.
Mendoza has ample experience against the Ducks, going back to his days at California. One thing I noticed in the first matchup, and really all season for Mendoza, is how well he's taken care of the ball. He developed a reputation as a bit of a gunslinger while at Cal, but he's shown real growth with the Hoosiers. You do wonder how Oregon is going to mix and match looks to get him off balance and perhaps create a turnover or two. Defensive coordinator Tosh Lupoi still seems bought in here at Oregon for the Playoff, even as he prepares to head out to take over at Cal, of all places.
I remain convinced that beating a team twice in the same season has become increasingly difficult in the modern world of college football. It does feel like the portal, NIL, and the modern way of the game has evened out a lot of these teams in a way we didn't see a decade ago. Indiana has had an incredible year, but I think the Ducks get them here, learning from their previous mistakes and finding a way to end the magic early.
The Pick: Oregon, 31 Indiana, 28
College Football Playoff National Championship: (5) Oregon Ducks vs. (3) Georgia Bulldogs
It's a bit of a homecoming of sorts for Dan Lanning, who made his name for himself as Georgia defensive coordinator, and now has built something special in Eugene. Master vs. apprentice is always a fun storyline, and this should be a battle in Miami Gardens.
These two will look more like NFL teams when they line up against each other. Lanning inherited a superb situation at Oregon given the work done by Mario Cristobal, but he's elevated it with great hires, excellent moves through the portal, and the right culture built here. It does feel like only a matter of time before Oregon finally climbs the ladder and wins it all. If I were a betting man, I'd love the value of the Ducks as a National Title future - I feel as though the James Madison tune up may actually be of more benefit to them than a bye in the first round.
With that being said, there's something about this Georgia team. Love him or hate him, Kirby has just found a way to win these types of games, and motivate his team when it matters the most. This hasn't been a pretty product all season long, but it's been an effective one. Of course they'll be up and ready to go for a National Championship Game, and I like this matchup for them.
This is certainly not Kirby Smart's best team in Athens. In fact, I'm not entirely convinced it's even in his top three. But, there's something about this team that makes me believe they're going to get the job done. They've been on a tear over the last several months, they make the clutch plays when it matters most, and we've seen this program here before. I have the Bulldogs winning their third National Title in five years.
The Pick: Georgia, 24 Oregon, 21
2025-26 National Champion: (3) Georgia Bulldogs
No comments:
Post a Comment