Friday, September 29, 2023

College Football Picks 2023: Week Five

Riley Leonard, Duke

Current Picks Record: 23-13

Upsets: 1-3

Superdogs: 3-1

Locks: 3-1


(#11) Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ (#17) Duke Blue Devils

Line: Notre Dame -5.5

O/U: 53

Duke burst onto the national scene with an upset of Clemson on Labor Day, but now they're hoping to prove it wasn't a fluke by welcoming No. 11 Notre Dame to Wallace Wade Stadium. The Irish are fresh off a heartbreaking loss to Ohio State at home, but present a significant test to Mike Elko and the Blue Devils.

The Duke offense doesn't jump out at you statistically, but it's one of the more balanced units you'll find anywhere in the nation. Quarterback Riley Leonard is a dual threat who is a joy to watch; he won't take too many shots down the field, but is an efficient passer that won't turn the ball over. His legs present a challenge the Irish really haven't seen this fall, they've dealt with primarily pocket passers. It's not just short scrambles that make Leonard so dangerous; he's a big-play threat who is averaging over eight yards per carry so far on the season. Tailbacks Jordan Waters and Jaquez Moore represent a quality rushing duo, while it's all about Jalon Calhoun and Jordan Moore on the perimeter for the Blue Devils. It's a supporting cast that doesn't strike fear into defenses in quite the same way Ohio State's offense does, but the Irish will still need to be on their "A" game. Fortunately, that hasn't been a problem for Marcus Freeman's crew, as this has been one of the nation's premier defenses over the first month of 2023. We knew the Irish were stout up front, but the pass defense has been a pleasant surprise. They never allowed Kyle McCord to get comfortable last weekend, and have some of the best man-to-man coverage defenders in college football. It's the type of defense that makes every yard a battle, a group that could ultimately be the toughest Duke sees this fall.

Although Notre Dame's offense is coming off an underwhelming showing against Ohio State, this looks to be the best Irish offense we've seen in some time. Quarterback Sam Hartman has been a difference-maker, a fearless passer who has 14 touchdowns without an interception on the year. But, even more important, it appears as though the Irish are finally identifying some playmakers on the perimeter that can help them secure the major national games wins that have evaded them in the past. Chris Tyree's transition to wide receiver has been huge, as the speedster is averaging nearly 27 yards per reception and is a threat to take it to the house every time he touches the ball. Jayden Thomas and Jaden Greathouse have also been huge, giving Notre Dame two proven, traditional options to beat teams through the air. Add in powerful runner Audric Estime, this is a scary Notre Dame offense, even after what we saw last weekend. There is real explosive on the roster that should be able to help them overcome the tougher opponents on the schedule, like Duke. Yet, I think the real advantage the Irish will look to exploit this weekend is in the trenches. The Irish offensive line, with the exception of tackle Joe Alt, has been a slight disappointment, but they retain a major edge over the Blue Devils here. Now, Duke was able to negate this weakness against Clemson and still win but if you rewatch that game, the Tigers had no issues moving the ball, it was the red zone turnovers that doomed them. With how well Hartman and company take care of the football, I don't envision that being the difference here.

Coming off such an emotional loss the week prior always makes me a bit wary, but I came away very impressed with Notre Dame in the losing effort. They outplayed the Buckeyes essentially the entire way and I still firmly believe they will remain in the College Football mix all year. Duke has been a great story and I love what Mike Elko has done here, but the Irish are the better football team top-to-bottom. Even in Durham, that should result in an Irish victory.

The Pick: Notre Dame, 30 Duke, 21


(#24) Kansas Jayhawks @ (#3) Texas Longhorns

Line: Texas -16.5

O/U: 61

Kansas has been a thorn in the side for Texas in recent years, but the two collide this Saturday with different stakes on the line. Texas envisions a first College Football Playoff berth in their future, while the Jayhawks are 4-0 and looking to continue their impressive turnaround under Lance Leipold. Expect plenty of fireworks in the final installment of these two as conference foes.

There's something different about Texas this year. For as impressive as the Alabama win was, I came away feeling that the Baylor victory was a stronger signal of the Longhorn attitude shift under Steve Sarkisian. We've seen the Longhorns win big games before, but it's been these types of road contests against inferior conference foes that have remained a consistent problem in Austin. Instead, Texas came out motivated, hungry, and disciplined, resulting in a blowout win over the Bears. I suspect they won't have any issues getting up for this game, a ranked matchup in front of their home crowd. That's concerning for a Kansas team that still sees a major talent gap between themselves and the 'Horns, especially when comparing the Texas offense to the Jayhawk defense. Quinn Ewers has lived up the hype so far this fall, but his play shouldn't completely overshadow this supporting cast. Texas may boast the most complete pass-catcher room in the nation, with the lone exception being Washington, and up front, this is one of the most physical and ferocious offensive lines in America. The ground game appears to still be feeling things out, but true freshman C.J. Baxter looks like the real deal and I don't doubt the 'Horns will have success running against a mediocre Kansas defensive front. As long as this team takes care of the football, which hasn't been a major problem so far this fall, they shouldn't have too much troubles lighting up the scoreboard.

The best hope for Kansas is hoping their offense can keep up and they do just enough defensively to squeak out a victory. That isn't out of the realm of possibility, especially when you consider the Jayhawk offense is led by one of the nation's most exciting quarterbacks, Jalon Daniels. Although Daniels hasn't been as effective with his legs as he has previously, he seems to have taken steps forward as a passer, with 705 yards and five touchdowns through the air on the year. His growth in that area has allowed Kansas to take more shots down the field, buoyed by the fact Lawrence Arnold, Luke Grimm, and Quentin Skinner have evolved into a formidable trio. This is where the Jayhawks are going to have the most success; I worry about their ability to run the ball against an imposing Longhorn front, but we haven't seen Texas face a truly dynamic aerial attack so far in 2023. Daniels is the most complete quarterback they've seen and even with the improvement on the back-end, Texas could be vulnerable. With that being said, the Jayhawks are not an offense known for leaning exclusively on the pass, so this be take adjustments and improvisation to have success.

There's still a big part of me that remains wary of Texas despite what we've seen so far this season. This isn't the first time in the last decade-and-a-half the program has enjoyed a hot start and you can never be sure what version of the 'Horns you're going week-in, week-out. Yet, they are clearly the more talented team in this matchup and playing at home, it feels unwise to pick against them here.

The Pick: Texas, 42 Kansas, 31


(#8) USC Trojans @ Colorado Buffaloes

Line: USC -21.5

O/U: 73

Was last weekend the wakeup call Deion Sanders and Colorado needed? For as good as a story as the Buffaloes have been over the season's first month, they have their clear deficiencies, and those were exposed in a big way against Oregon this past Saturday. Responding by upsetting eighth-ranked USC would be quite the statement, but remains a lofty goal.

Surprise, surprise, a Lincoln Riley-coached offense is once again terrifying opposing defenses. USC currently ranks as the top scoring offense in the nation, averaging 55 points per game behind the stellar arm of Caleb Williams. The reigning Heisman winner remains perched near the top of the betting favorites to take over the award once more, as he enters this one with over 1,200 yards of total offense and 18 total touchdowns. Around him, former South Carolina transfer MarShawn Lloyd has been a pleasant surprise, averaging nearly nine yards per carry en route to 349 yards. Then, there's the receiver corps, which includes Tahj Washington, Brenden Rice, and the ultra-versatile Zachariah Branch. In many ways, it's a classic Riley offense; they run the ball well enough to keep you honest underneath but can kill you over the top with the playmakers they feature on the perimeter. It's a brutal matchup for a Colorado team currently operating without their best defender, cornerback-receiver extraordinaire Travis Hunter. There was some hope among the Colorado faithful that Hunter might be set for a return this weekend, but that feels highly unlikely. Instead, others on this defense are going to find a way to step up, but the lack of depth and experience appears to already be showing itself throughout the lineup. 

The good news for Colorado is that USC's defense continues to struggle. All offseason, improvement on the defensive side of the ball was a point of emphasis for the Trojans but against their top two opponents this fall, Arizona State and San Jose State, they've looked extremely underwhelming. The Buffaloes offer plenty of weapons, even without Hunter. Shedeur Sanders' Heisman hopes may have taken a beating last weekend, but he remains one of college football's premier playmakers, as long as the offensive line can keep him upright. That may not have been the case against Oregon, but the Trojan pass rush is significantly less impressive and Sanders should have more time to throw, if even a second or two. Xavier Weaver has been his favorite target so far, but the veteran wide out left the Ducks game and his status remains a mystery. If Weaver can't go, that puts more pressure on Jimmy Horn Jr. and the rest of the supporting cast, which hasn't found a consistent cast of characters beyond the top guys. Could a name like Tar'Varish Dawson or Javon Antonio use this opportunity to distinguish themselves? Just as important, Colorado needs to identify some sort of ground attack. Aside from Week One, the Buffaloes have been atrocious running the football and the lack of balance makes this team much easier to scheme against. Freshman Dylan Edwards has enjoyed flashes, can he finally deliver something more against a porous Trojan defensive front?

It's hard to have much confidence in either of these defenses at this point in the season, so offensive fireworks should be a constant in Boulder this weekend. USC has proven time and time again they can win these types of shootouts and even going on the road, they retain a significant advantage. Not only Caleb Williams, but a balanced offense and much better offensive line. That makes them a much smarter pick to roll to a victory, even if Shedeur Sanders is able to whip up the magic. I am curious to see the energy levels around Folsom Field after last Saturday's deflating defeat. Will it still be a raucous environment? Perhaps the fans can provide enough pressure on Williams and the Trojans to make things interesting, although that feels highly unlikely.

The Pick: USC, 52 Colorado, 21


Other Picks

(#10) Utah Utes @ (#19) Oregon State Beavers -- Expect an ugly one in wet weather in Corvallis. Both these teams are looking to play ground-and-pound and lead with their defense, but a Cam Rising-less Utah team has me leaning Beavers.

The Pick: Oregon State, 20 Utah, 13

(#13) LSU Tigers @ (#20) Ole Miss Rebels -- Lane Kiffin has struggled to win these types of big games since taking over in Oxford. Last weekend's performance against Alabama didn't exactly inspire confidence, even if the Tiger defense looks like it could be a real problem this fall.

The Pick: LSU, 34 Ole Miss, 24

(#2) Michigan Wolverines @ Nebraska Cornhuskers -- Potential upset alert in Lincoln this Saturday? The Wolverines still are figuring things out offensively, but their defense is too strong for the 'Huskers to do enough the other way.

The Pick: Michigan, 27 Nebraska, 14

Upset: (#22) Florida Gators @ Kentucky Wildcats -- With the way these two offenses are playing, this should be a low-scoring affair in Lexington. I like Kentucky to come out on top and win their third straight in the series, something that hasn't happened since the 1950s.

Superdog (covers > 21 point spread): UAB Blazers (+22) @ Tulane Green Wave -- For the second straight week, I'm rolling with UAB as my "Superdog" selection. That doesn't mean Trent Dilfer's group is a good football team, but they have a real shot to cover against a Tulane team likely to still be without QB Michael Pratt.

The Pick: Tulane, 28 UAB, 10

Lock of the Week: Maryland Terrapins (-14) vs. Indiana Hoosiers -- While all the attention on the Big Ten East has been focused on the likes of Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State, the Terrapins have been absolutely decimating their competition. They should have no issues with Tom Allen's team at home.

The Pick: Maryland, 38 Indiana, 17


Wednesday, September 27, 2023

College Football Coaching Carousel 2023: Who Replaces Coaches on the Hot Seat?

Garrett Riley, Clemson

Now about one month into the 2023 college football season, we are starting to get a general idea of which teams will develop into contenders this fall and which teams may be watching bowl season from home. Naturally, that means the 2023 coaching carousel is starting to come into focus and what's college football without a little bit of wild speculation? With numerous Power Five posts likely to open, here's who I envision taking over for each expected vacancy.


Baylor Bears

The Situation: Dave Aranda was dealt the unenviable task of following up Matt Rhule's impressive rebuild in Waco but after a turbulent 2020, Baylor won 12 games and a Big 12 Title in '21. Aranda was one of the most coveted coaching names in college football but instead decided to stay firm, signing a massive extension with the school that was set to keep him in town through 2029. Less than two full years later, Aranda's stock is an all-time low, with Baylor sitting at 1-3 after a humiliating loss to Texas. It's not just the on-field results, either. Recruiting has completely stalled since Joey McGuire left to take the Texas Tech head coach job and there's an energy around the program that feels distinctively off. There's still time for Aranda to turn things around, but in the fast-paced world of college football coaching, it wouldn't be a shock to see a new head man patrolling the Baylor sidelines in 2024.

The Replacement - Garrett Riley (Clemson OC): After winning the Broyles Award and helping lead TCU to a National Championship Game appearance, Garrett Riley was one of the flashiest hires of the 2023 coaching carousel. It felt like a statement for Dabo Swinney after two "down" years at Clemson, landing an elite offensive mind who was rising quickly up the coaching ladder. Although the Tigers have been a disappointment up to this point, Riley seems to be finding his rhythm as the team's play-caller and should remain a popular coaching candidate into the offseason. He makes plenty of sense for Baylor, as he checks nearly all the important boxes. He's a Texas native knows the intricacies of the state, he's an innovative offensive mind that should jolt an offense that has become lethargic under Aranda, and at 34 years of age, he can grow into the position. It feels like only a matter of time before Garrett is a head man and although jumping straight to a Power Five head coaching job is a sizable leap, this just feels right.

Other Names to Watch: Jeff Traylor (UTSA HC), Willie Fritz (Tulane HC), Jamey Chadwell (Liberty HC), G.J. Kinne (Texas State HC), Maurice Linguist (Buffalo HC)


Boston College Eagles

The Situation: A Northeast native with both college and NFL coaching experience, Jeff Hafley was considered a shrewd hire by Boston College after the program rid itself of Steve Addazio post-2019. The early returns were impressive, with Hafley going 6-5 during the wacky 2020 season and making early recruiting waves, but things have gone downhill in short order. After going 6-6 in 2021, Hafley is 4-13 since, including a 2-8 mark inside the ACC. So far this fall, the Eagles looked like they might be turning a corner by putting a fright into Florida State, but followed it up with a four-touchdown loss to Louisville. Things feel stale here, and I don't envision BC keeping Hafley for much longer, even if this isn't a football program known for its deep pocketbooks.

The Replacement - Joe Harasymiak (Rutgers DC): There's not an obvious direction Boston College would be looking for their next head coach, assuming they move on from Hafley this offseason. With that being said, Rutgers defensive coordinator Joe Harasymiak makes plenty of sense. BC fans may be hesitant of another coach with ties to Greg Schiano, as Hafley coached with the current Rutgers head man at multiple stops, but Harasymiak has built a strong resume throughout his time in the collegiate ranks. He was head man at Maine and spent time with Minnesota before joining Schiano's staff. He's built a quality defense in Piscataway and will get looks for head coaching vacancies this offseason. Harasymiak could be considered an up-and-comer at 37 years of age but previous head coaching experience, even at the FCS level, is a major selling point in his favor.

Other Names to Watch: Joe Rossi (Minnesota DC), Al Washington (Notre Dame DL Coach), Chris Creighton (Eastern Michigan HC), Manny Diaz (Penn State DC)


Houston Cougars

The Situation: After nearly a decade in charge at West Virginia, Dana Holgorsen made the surprising decision to bolt to Houston, then a Group of Five program. As the Cougars have made the move to the Big 12, the program feels ready for bigger and better things, but Dana just hasn't delivered. It certainly hasn't been a complete disaster; the 12-2 2021 season felt like the beginning of a new era for Houston football, but the Cougars have gone 10-7 since. There were rumors last winter that Houston brass was set to fire the 52-year old and an uninspired 2-2 start likely isn't going to calm the waters. It feels like a change is needed, and Houston is going to be willing to throw around money to land a big name.

The Replacement - Tom Herman (Florida Atlantic HC): Is this just wishful thinking on my end? Tom Herman's Houston teams in 2015 and 2016 were among my favorite college football teams in recent memory and it feels like a real possibility the two could meet up again. Herman is trying to claw his way back up the college football coaching world after being let go at Texas, and his current position at Florida Atlantic feels like a pit stop. Houston, on the other hand, has been solid since Herman left town, but doesn't feel like a program fulfilling its vast potential. Herman knows what it takes to win here and even though the college football landscape has changed aplenty since 2016, I love the idea of a reunion.

Other Names to Watch: Jeff Traylor (UTSA HC), G.J. Kinne (Texas State HC), Doug Belk (Houston DC), Kliff Kingsbury (former Texas Tech HC, USC analyst & QB coach), Zack Kittley (Texas Tech OC), Blake Baker (Missouri DC)


Indiana Hoosiers

The Situation: Kevin Wilson's abrupt resignation in 2016 led to Indiana alum Tom Allen being promoted from the team's defensive coordinator position to head coach. Following a pair of 5-7 campaigns, Allen delivered two of the most successful seasons in Bloomington since longtime head man Bill Mallory, going 8-5 in 2019 and 6-2 in 2020. Allen seemed like the ideal fit for the program, a coach with infectious energy who loves everything about the Hoosiers. Unfortunately, the wins since then just haven't shown up, as Allen is 8-20 overall and a lowly 2-17 in the Big Ten over the last two-plus years. It looks like it will be another season in the Big Ten cellar for the Hoosiers, enough to make Indiana brass look for a change in direction. It's unfortunate because Allen does truly seem like a great guy, but big-time college football is a business and winning means everything.

The Replacement - Sean Lewis (Colorado OC): 37-year old Sean Lewis took an unconventional route this past offseason when he opted to move on from a head coaching post at Kent State to join up with "Coach Prime" as Colorado offensive coordinator. You just don't see that very often in this day and age, an FBS head coach choosing to step into an OC role. But the decision appears to be paying dividends, as Lewis has been in the spotlight this entire fall and will almost surely get another crack at a head coaching position. Indiana seems like a reasonable landing spot, as Lewis is a Wisconsin alum with plenty of familiarity with the Midwest. For Indiana fans, this gives them a chance at an elite offensive mind whose 24-31 mark at Kent State doesn't wow you, but is extremely impressive given the lack of resources at that program.

Other Names to Watch: Chris Creighton (Eastern Michigan HC), Kane Wommack (South Alabama HC), Jason Candle (Toledo HC), Ryan Grubb (Washington OC), Brian Hartline (Ohio State OC)


Michigan State Spartans

The Situation: Less than two years ago, Mel Tucker was riding high, leading Michigan State to a dream 2021 season and earning a 10-year, $95 million contract. Fast forward to this September, it seems unlikely that Tucker, who is currently suspended, will coach again at MSU. He was suspended in mid-September as a result of sexual harassment allegations and the university has already announced that they have begun the process to fire him. It's likely to be a messy process for both sides but in a strictly football sense, the Michigan State job holds plenty of value to potential head coaches. This has remained a quality program with ample resources, bolstered by an administration and booster base not afraid to spend money. There are several notable names that may be interested in taking the jump to East Lansing this fall.

The Replacement - Mike Elko (Duke HC): Mike Elko is going to be a popular name this coaching carousel, particularly if he can keep the momentum going in Durham after Duke's 4-0 start. Elko had already established a name for himself as defensive coordinator at Texas A&M and Notre Dame, but his work as Duke head man has been incredibly impressive. He took over a program mired in mediocrity and has delivered a 13-4 start, including a throttling of Clemson to begin the year. The Blue Devils will undoubtedly pull out all the stops to keep him in town, but it wouldn't be shocking to see a program with more resources lure him away, and Michigan State could be it. Elko doesn't have direct ties to the program nor the Big Ten, but has experience coaching in the Midwest and would be the type of steady, level-headed coach the program needs as they transition away from the Tucker era.

Other Names to Watch: Harlon Barnett (interim HC), Brian Hartline (Ohio State OC), Pat Narduzzi (Pittsburgh HC), Jim Leonhard (former Wisconsin interim HC, Illinois analyst), Mike Tressel (Wisconsin DC)


Northwestern Wildcats

The Situation: Scandal brought down Pat Fitzgerald after a decade-and-a-half in charge in Evanston but even before things broke this past July, the Wildcat football program was going in the wrong direction. Northwestern had gone just 4-20 in the two seasons since winning the Big Ten West during the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign and the prognosis for 2023 didn't look altogether encouraging. Interim head man David Braun has gone 2-2 in a nearly impossible situation, but I suspect the Wildcats are looking for a new figurehead to lead them into a new era. For as successful as Fitzgerald was, and there's little denying he was, Northwestern remains a difficult job that could only get tougher as USC, UCLA, Oregon, and Washington arrive.

The Replacement - Mike Kafka (New York Giants OC): This would be a dream scenario for Northwestern after a turbulent few months, bringing home an alum who has quickly ascended up the coaching ladder in the NFL. Kafka, who played QB in Evanston from 2006-2009, served one season as a grad assistant here before moving on the NFL, where he has become a head coaching candidate. The New York Giants offensive coordinator, Kafka interviewed for NFL HC vacancies over the offseason, but the allure of returning home is likely to be a strong one. Going back to the collegiate game after a long stint in the NFL would be an adjustment, but Northwestern will be very patient with the alum and at the very least, he's going to put up enough points to satisfy fans starved for offensive football.

Other Names to Watch: David Braun (interim HC), Jim Leonhard (former Wisconsin interim HC, Illinois analyst), Bronco Mendenhall (former Virginia HC), Sherrone Moore (Michigan OC), Jason Candle (Toledo HC)


Other Potential Vacancies to Watch

Arkansas State Red Wolves (Butch Jones): Arkansas State has traditionally been a stepping stone job and I'm sure Butch Jones believed it was the spot to get his career back on track. Instead, the Red Wolves have gone 7-21 under his leadership, including a horrific 77-0 loss to Oklahoma to open up the fall.

California Golden Bears (Justin Wilcox): Justin Wilcox has been about as average as you can be in the world of college football, going 32-38 over his time in Berkeley. He's had to face down brutal COVID restrictions and an uncertain future for Bear football, but a third straight full season without a bowl trip could doom him.

Memphis Tigers (Ryan Silverfield): Memphis made two incredibly strong head coach hires back-to-back, with Justin Fuente and Mike Norvell. Ryan Silverfield just hasn't been able to live up to those two, going 24-17 overall and sub-.500 within the American Athletic Conference.

Mississippi State Bulldogs (Zach Arnett): The tragic passing of Mike Leach this past offseason led Mississippi State to promote defensive coordinator Zach Arnett, but you wonder if the administration is having buyer's remorse. Arnett has looked outclassed in the brutal SEC during a 2-2 start, and it's not crazy to think the program could look for an immediate change-of-pace to usher in a new era of Bulldog football.

Nevada Wolf Pack (Ken Wilson): Jay Norvell's surprising decision to move inside the Mountain West to take the Colorado State job left Nevada moving forward with Oregon co-DC Ken Wilson in 2021. Wilson knows the program, coaching here from 1989-2012, but his return as head man has been a disaster. The Wolf Pack have lost 14 of 16 games and are currently among the worst in FBS ball.

New Mexico Lobos (Danny Gonzales): New Mexico is a notoriously difficult place to win, but Danny Gonzales just hasn't done enough to warrant a fifth season in charge in 2024. He's 9-26 with the Lobos and currently sits at 2-2 on the season.

Texas A&M Aggies (Jimbo Fisher): This could be the ultimate dynamo to fall this coaching carousel. Jimbo Fisher would still be owed a staggering $77 million if he were to be fired after 2023, but if the Aggies suffer through another brutal fall it's not out of the realm of possibility for them to pay up. This is a job that would certainly attract major names if it were to open including Kalen DeBoer, Dan Lanning, and Deion Sanders.

West Virginia Mountaineers (Neal Brown): Has West Virginia's 3-1 start cooled off Neal Brown's seat enough? That appears to be case for the time being, but the program remains mired in mediocrity and Brown has been under pressure for years at this point.

Friday, September 22, 2023

College Football Picks 2023: Week Four

Kyle McCord, Ohio State

Current Picks Record: 17-10

Upsets: 1-2

Superdogs: 2-1

Locks: 3-0


(#6) Ohio State Buckeyes @ (#9) Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Line: Ohio State -3

O/U: 55.5

Notre Dame will welcome Ohio State to South Bend in the primetime game of a loaded Week Four slate, with both teams entering with something to prove. The Fighting Irish have beat up on weak competition over the first month of the season, but are looking to avenge last year's defeat at the hands of the Buckeyes. For Ohio State, some early offensive woes have led to some concerns around Columbus, which they're hoping were solved by dropping 63 points on Western Kentucky this past weekend.

Most of the attention revolves around the two offenses in this one, but I think the public is overlooking just how impressive these two defenses have looked early on. The Irish have been absolutely stifling, especially on the back-end, and despite the fact the front seven doesn't have the NFL names it has been in the past, they're going to come at Ohio State's offensive line. Of course, it does help that the offense is spearheaded by the best quarterback the Irish have had in some time in Sam Hartman, who has 13 touchdowns over four games to begin his ND career. The savvy veteran is a crisp, consistent passer who shouldn't be flustered by the grand stage here. He makes the Irish significantly more dangerous vertically, which wasn't the case in this game last fall, although he'll have to stay upright. The Notre Dame O-Line is good, but not the elite group we've seen in the past, and Hartman has taken some hits over the first several weeks. That's partly on Hartman being known for holding on to the ball and looking to make things happen, but he doesn't facing a Navy or Central Michigan pass rush here - the Buckeyes have two future high NFL Draft selections in J.T. Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer. Workhorse tailback Audric Estime is going to take pressure off this passing attack, as the bulldozing back is currently leading the nation in rushing. Yet, I still believe the X-factors in every big Notre Dame contest comes down to their receivers. I'm not quite sure who their top guy on the perimeter is just yet. There appears to be more explosiveness and they could test the Buckeyes, but do they have the athletes to compete with OSU over four quarters? This feels like a pivotal game for Notre Dame's program to show where they stand in the national picture, especially considering its at home.

After a pair of underwhelming games to begin the year, Ohio State came out and dropped 63 points and 562 yards on Western Kentucky last Saturday. Sure, the Hilltoppers don't feature the most imposing defense they'll see in 2023, but it still felt like it could be a turning point for the Buckeyes as they get into the meat of their schedule. Kyle McCord is now officially the starting quarterback and he'll have his choice of weapons at his disposal, namely Marvin Harrison Jr., Emeka Egbuka, and Julian Fleming. It's a trio that can overwhelm even the most well-built secondaries, but can McCord get them the ball? The junior just has not looked confident under center most of the year, which can be be expected as he acclimates to the starting role, but Notre Dame's defense is a different animal than he has seen. They come at you the entire way and McCord is going to take some shots. How he responds will tell us a lot about Ohio State's chances for this one, but their prognosis for the rest of the season. My greater concern for Ohio State has actually been their running game, which hasn't taken off the way I expected when I selected TreVeyon Henderson as my preseason Doak Walker Award pick. Notre Dame is not exactly the defense you want to be seeing to get out of a rushing slump. They may not have the athletes of others on Notre Dame's schedule, but they're tough and disciplined in their spots.

Like several other games on the docket for this weekend, I have gone back and forth on my pick for this primetime duel. On one hand, Ohio State has athletes they can throw at you all four quarters, but the Irish look legit and get the Buckeyes in the friendly confines of Notre Dame Stadium. I'm always a bit wary of picking Notre Dame in a huge game like this, but what's life without a little risk? Hartman and Estime give them enough to test the Buckeye defense and as long as they slow down McCord and company just enough, I like their chances to win a close one.

The Pick: Notre Dame, 31 Ohio State, 27


(#15) Ole Miss Rebels @ (#13) Alabama Crimson Tide

Line: Alabama -6.5

O/U: 55.5

We're entering uncharted territory in the college football universe: Alabama is not only beatable they may be... downright bad? Their performance last week against South Florida, even in a win, was perhaps the most uninspired showing I've seen from an Alabama team since Nick Saban took over. Now, they welcome 15th-ranked Ole Miss to town and a familiar foe in Lane Kiffin.

After shuffling through Tyler Buchner and Ty Simpson at quarterback last week, the Tide are back to Jalen Milroe, who started their first two games but was mysteriously absent this past weekend. Whether or not it was a suspension or something else, it's good news that Milroe is back under center for Alabama. The young quarterback is still exceptionally raw as a passer, but his ability to create with his legs gives this offense their best opportunity to move the football. He's one of the most gifted rushing quarterbacks I've ever seen, but is oftentimes a bit quick on pulling the ball down and looking to create. That's to be expected of a QB who doesn't seem particularly confident in his throwing ability, but if Alabama is going to win these types of games, Milroe is going to have to do something through the air. He has weapons, too, albeit not the Biletnikoff-esque figures we've often see throughout the Saban era. Jermaine Burton is ultra-reliable and Isaiah Bond reminds me of Jaylen Waddle with his ability to break open games after one cut. The ground game also appears ready to take pressure off Milroe, as veterans Jase McClellan and Roydell Williams have both been productive options. However, the unit that bears the most observation, perhaps even more than Milroe, is the offensive line. This has been a shockingly bad start to the year for a group that didn't look necessarily elite entering the season, but wasn't expected to be anywhere close to this terrible. They were manhandled by a South Florida defensive front that isn't exactly brimming with future NFL guys; how will they fare against an Ole Miss pass rush that could be among the best in the SEC? Tommy Rees is going to have to be creative and get the ball out fast if this offense is going to move the football.

It feels as though Lane Kiffin has had this game circled on the calendar for some time now. He's always had a fascinating relationship with Nick Saban and hasn't shied away from taking shots at the Tide throughout the week on social media. That speaks to the confidence Lane feels in his roster, but also the clear issues the Tide have shown over the season's first several weeks. Lane is going to come out swinging offensively here, and he's got a quarterback riding a hot hand in Jaxson Dart, who currently leads the Rebels in both passing and rushing. We've known Dart can throw the ball, but he's seemed to play with more confidence in 2023 and has shown impressive improvisation ability. That doesn't mean the Rebels are going to completely sideline Quinshon Judkins, if he is ready to go. Judkins is currently listed as doubtful and hasn't looked himself over the last two weeks. Former SMU transfer Ulysses Bentley IV has been their main option in relief, but this offense becomes much less intimidating with him operating alongside Dart in the backfield. The receiver corps is led by Jordan Watkins, but also misses an important name, as Tre Harris has been officially ruled out. I am curious to see whether that alters the Ole Miss gameplan at all. This has never been an offense that leans exclusively on airing it out, but you figured they were going to take their shots after seeing what Texas did to Alabama previously. Missing Harris, who is quite the deep threat, could change how they chose to attack this Tide secondary.

Doesn't this have the feeling of a game where Alabama just comes out and blows the doors off their opponent? That sounds crazy after what we saw last weekend, but we've seen this story before under Nick Saban and seen them come out and absolutely dominate after a rough showing. Having Milroe under center is another element that inspires confidence and while I do think Lane will have some tricks up his sleeve, the Tide remain a safer pick. 

The Pick: Alabama, 28 Ole Miss, 24


(#19) Colorado Buffaloes @ (#10) Oregon Ducks

Line: Oregon -21

O/U: 70

Love him or hate him, there's no denying that Deion Sanders has been the story of the 2023 college football season, to this point. "Coach Prime" has never been one to shy away from the spotlight and that attention has been magnified after Colorado's 3-0 start. Now comes the real test: Keeping things going as the Buffaloes travel to Eugene to meet up with No. 10 Oregon.

Sean Lewis, formerly the head man at Kent State, has engineered a thrilling Colorado offense over the first three weeks of the season. It helps that quarterback Shedeur Sanders has been as good as advertised, with over 1,200 yards and 10 passing touchdowns over the season's first three games. Shedeur has the same boundless confidence of his dad, but backs it up with a lively arm and superb football IQ. It's particularly impressive that he's been so good despite an offensive line in front of him that has been okay at best, and now will feature a host of future NFL Draftees in the Oregon Duck defensive front. Colorado has survived by drawing up quick passing plays for Sanders to get the ball out quick, but that's not a strategy that's going to last forever. The offensive line is either going to have to start playing better, or the offense becomes even more one-dimensional than it has been over their first three games. The arrival of Houston transfer Alton McCaskill, who is healthy after missing all of last season with a torn ACL, could help, but the Ducks are a physical defense that are likely to be extra aggressive in this one. With that being said, I do have real questions about the Duck secondary, which was burned in Week Two by Texas Tech. Even without Travis Hunter, Colorado has legit perimeter talent and they draw up interesting route concepts. This is going to tell us a lot about how good this Oregon defense truly is.

For as exciting as the Colorado offense has been this fall, Oregon's is statistically stronger, currently averaging 58 points per game. Those numbers are a bit inflated by the fact they dropped 81 points on Portland State in the opener, but there's no denying this is a potent group led by a veteran quarterback in Bo Nix. Nix is one of my favorite players in college football, a player who received an absurd amount of hate throughout his career at Auburn but has battled through it to become one of the best in the country. It helps that there's a whole lot of help around him in this Duck offense, with Troy Franklin and Tez Johnson out wide, and the trio of Bucky Irving, Jordan James, and Noah Whittington running wild in the backfield. There's so many different ways the Ducks can hurt you, whether it's playing pound-the-ball, smash-mouth football, or airing it out and testing defenses vertically. They're tough and fundamentally sound up front and should have a clear edge over the Buffs in the trenches. As for Colorado's pass defense, I'll be curious to see how they look without Hunter. He's obviously the big name back here, but others have stepped up and deserve credit, too. Whether they're able to hold Nix and company in check will go along way in determining their chances.

Even before the Hunter injury, going on the road and beating a legitimate Top 10 team like Oregon felt as though it would be an uphill battle for Colorado. With that being said, I think the Buffs have a chance to keep things tight, and I love their chances to cover the three-touchdown spread. The offense still has ample weapons and will test a questionable Duck secondary, and if the defense can create a few turnovers, this could get interesting. Yet, it feels unwise to bet against Oregon, a team that's healthier, deeper, and playing at home.

The Pick: Oregon, 45 Colorado, 31


Other Picks

(#4) Florida State Seminoles @ Clemson Tigers -- I've gone back-and-forth with this one, too. Clemson seems to have find its rhythm and will give FSU real headaches in the trenches, but having Jordan Travis is the differentiator for the 'Noles.

The Pick: Florida State, 34 Clemson, 27

(#22) UCLA Bruins @ (#11) Utah Utes -- The Bruins outclassed Utah in this matchup a season ago, but now have to travel to Salt Lake City, where the Utes never lose. It also appears Cam Rising is set to make his return, giving me more reason to roll with the home folks.

The Pick: Utah, 26 UCLA, 21

(#24) Iowa Hawkeyes @ (#7) Penn State Nittany Lions -- A game overshadowed by Ohio State-Notre Dame in primetime, these two always play close games. But, I don't believe the Hawkeyes have enough offensive firepower to survive sixty minutes of a "Whiteout" game.

The Pick: Penn State, 30 Iowa, 17

Upset: (#17) North Carolina Tar Heels @ Pittsburgh -- Another week where I don't feel great about any of these upset opportunities. But, I'll take a stab at Pittsburgh shocking the Tar Heels, even after the Panthers are coming off an ugly "Backyard Brawl" defeat.

The Pick: Pittsburgh, 28 North Carolina, 27

Superdog (covers > 21 point spread) UAB Blazers (+43) @ Georgia Bulldogs -- Wide spreads like these are always tempting "Superdog" plays and the Bulldogs didn't exactly look like world-beaters last weekend against South Carolina.

The Pick: Georgia, 42 UAB, 7

Lock of the Week: Minnesota Golden Gophers (-11.5) vs. Northwestern Wildcats -- It appears as though the Gophers are still figuring things out offensively, but I'm still a tad surprised at this line. We've seen nothing from Northwestern over the first three weeks to believe this is going to be an ultra-competitive game.

The Pick: Minnesota, 31 Northwestern, 13


Thursday, September 14, 2023

College Football Picks 2023: Week Three

Michael Penix, Washington
Current Picks Record: 12-6

Upset: 1-1

Superdogs: 1-1

Locks: 2-0


(#11) Tennessee Volunteers @ Florida Gators

Line: Tennessee -6.5

O/U: 59

In a week without very many marquee games to choose from, the rivalry matchup between Tennessee and Florida takes the cake as the most important game on Saturday. Tennessee has looked crisp over their first two games of the year, albeit against meager competition, while Florida is hoping to recover from an underwhelming start and assert themselves as sincere SEC East threats. The main reason for intrigue? Tennessee is looking to win two straight in the series for the first time since 2003-2004, after overcoming the Gators in Knoxville last fall.

Tennessee didn't dominate Austin Peay in Neyland Stadium this past weekend, but the Volunteers still came away with a comfortable victory to cruise to 2-0. It's been a rock-solid start to begin Josh Heuepel's third season at the helm, but it still feels like both sides of the ball is finding their rhythm. That's to be expected so early on in a fresh campaign, and it's reassuring that quarterback Joe Milton has taken care of the ball and looked ready for the big stage early on. The Volunteers are still working on identifying their new top target with Jalin Hyatt and Cedric Tillman now playing on Sundays, with Ramel Keyton looking like the frontrunner, but the ground game has been ferocious and the offensive line looks as good, if not better, than the 2022 edition. My questions tend to lie on defense, a group that looked superb in the opener but was susceptible through the air over the weekend. I don't think it's reason to overreact to a game they still ended up winning against an FCS foe, but this defense is going to have to pick it up once the competition heightens, beginning with Florida this week. This is an aggressive Volunteer defense, but I wonder how things will look when they aren't able to get the big sack or flip the field with a timely turnover. It's not just Georgia they have to worry about in the division, now either. Kentucky, South Carolina, and even Vanderbilt have looked impressive throwing the ball early on, which could be cause for concern for a team with lofty expectations.

With that being said, this Gator offense has a lot to prove before I believe they can toe-to-toe over sixty minutes with the Vols the other way. They recovered from a disastrous showing in the opener by dropping 49 points and 560 yards on McNeese State, but even then, the offense had a feeling of clunkiness. We knew the ground game was likely to rule the day in Gainesville this fall, but tailbacks Montrell Johnson and Trevor Etienne have been the only consistent sources of offense on the year. The pressure is on Graham Mertz to figure it out and evolve into a difference-maker, or Florida's ceiling is capped as about a .500 football team, at best. Mertz did look good against McNeese State and is going to have opportunities against Tennessee, but the receiver corps has its fair share of questions to contend with also. Beyond Ricky Pearsall, there doesn't appear to be a proven commodity among the position group as we stand today and not a ton of inspiring options, either. It feels like this unit is going to have to be creative to move the ball through the air in 2023, unless something radically changes in the coming weeks.

I wasn't particularly high on Florida entering the season and the lifeless, season-opening defeat to Utah did little to inspire confidence. It's too early in the year to write anybody off, but even on the road, I feel significantly more comfortable taking Tennessee in this one. It feels like we know Tennessee's identity at this point, but the Gators? They're a complete question mark, and even though that things could turn around, I don't like this matchup for them. I'm rolling with the Volunteers comfortably and would highly consider "locking" it up based on where this line is at.

The Pick: Tennessee, 34 Florida, 17


(#8) Washington Huskies @ Michigan State Spartans

Line: Washington -16

O/U: 57.5

Last season, a ranked Michigan State had to travel across the country to the Pacific Northwest to face an upstart Washington program. Now, the Huskies are primed to return the favor, albeit under different circumstances. Washington enters the game as a legitimate College Football Playoff contender with a pair of impressive wins under their belt, while the Spartans are reeling. They may be 2-0, but the suspension of head coach Mel Tucker that occurred earlier in the week has the program at a crossroads as they gear up for a Top 10 foe.

Washington has wreaked havoc on their first two opponents of 2023, posting 56 points on a Boise State team that could win the Mountain West, and then 43 on Kevin Wilson's Tulsa Golden Hurricane. It's been quite the encore from a team that had such a breakthrough debut under head coach Kalen DeBoer last fall, and looks hungry for more. QB Michael Penix has been the figurehead of a terrifying aerial attack that boasts a batch of elite wide outs in Rome Odunze, Ja'Lynn Polk, Jalen McMillan, and a Michigan State transfer, Germie Bernard. It's amazing how effortless this passing offense has looked since DeBoer took over, really from the get-go. They attack down the field with reckless abandon and do an excellent job exploiting advantageous matchups at every level. Everybody that loves good offense should be tuning into the Huskies each and every week, it's one of the most exciting shows in college football. And, it's made even more impressive by the fact that this offense doesn't have a semblance of balance to it. Everybody in the stadium knows they are going throw just about every snap and yet, they can't stop it. It's a nightmare scenario for a Spartan defense that has made improvement on the back-end a point of emphasis, but hasn't quite been able to turn things around back there. Defensive backs coach Harlon Barnett is now acting as the team's interim and likely has plenty on his mind right now. Penix and company are just another reason he's probably losing sleep as they gear up for Saturday night in East Lansing.

Michigan State is not going to be chucking the ball all over the field like the Huskies, instead leaning on a more methodical, balanced offense. It's an offense that might not have the star-power of Washington, but has looked productive over their first two weeks of the year against Central Michigan and Richmond. Quarterback Noah Kim has taken over the reigns of the offense from Payton Thorne and has proven to be exceptionally efficient, although the Huskies do offer a stiffer challenge than he's seen as starter so far. On the ground, tailback Nathan Carter has taken over as the feature back and displayed all the trappings of a workhorse. Add in receiver Jaron Mosley on the perimeter, who has been their primary source of big-play opportunities through the first two games, the Spartans have reason to believe they can still move the ball against the Huskies. But, can they really compete with Penix and company over the full four quarters? Your best hope if you're a Spartan fan is that this team slows it down into a rock fight and plays ball-control, doing just enough on offense to come out on top. It certainly isn't a pretty strategy, but it's reminiscent of this program's brand throughout much of the Mark Dantonio years and one they used to great success.

It's been a tumultuous week for Michigan State football and what better way to cap it off then by welcoming a Top 10 team to Spartan Stadium? Not just any Top 10 team, either, but one with an offense bred to blow the doors of a shaky Spartan secondary. This team is going to still put up a valiant fight in front of the home crowd but even if they slow things down, Washington just has too many weapons. If they carry their hot play into Saturday, they shouldn't have too much difficulties moving to 3-0 on the young season.

The Pick: Washington, 42 Michigan State, 21


Minnesota Golden Gophers @ (#20) North Carolina Tar Heels

Line: North Carolina -7.5

O/U: 51

This week may be short on big-time games, but it will give us an opportunity to get formulate stronger on several Power Five teams, including Minnesota and North Carolina. The Gophers snuck out a come-from-behind victory at home against Nebraska, which ultimately looks much less impressive after the 'Huskers got their teeth kicked in by Colorado. On the flip side, the Tar Heels were one of the big winners of Week One after dominating South Carolina, but then went to overtime a week later against Appalachian State. Seeing these two clash, a pair of programs that don't see each other often, will be very helpful in getting a much better idea of what is in store for each in 2023.

It's no secret who the star of the show is for the Tar Heels, as Drake Maye is hoping to deliver an early impression to Heisman voters. He was awfully impressive during the opener against South Carolina, but didn't quite build on it the way you would have hoped against Appalachian State. Fortunately for the Heels, that was mainly due to the emergence of a ground game, spearheaded by Omarion Hampton. The sophomore ran all over the Mountaineers, to the tune of 234 yards and three touchdowns, and looks to keep the momentum going in front of the home crowd. Finding offensive balance this year would be huge for a North Carolina team with lofty expectations, especially as they figure out who their top weapons will be on the perimeter. With that being said, I still think the best plan of attack for the Tar Heels will be through the air, with Maye slinging it around. The Gophers have two elite defensive backs in Tyler Nubin and Justin Walley, but they are still mixing and matching on the back-end and the Heels present the toughest pass offense they see yet on the young season. Up front, I have less questions about the Gophers, who have been incredibly well-coached under coordinator Joe Rossi and plug gaps as well as you will see at this level. Getting pressure on Maye will be the challenge, but the front seven always makes things difficult for opposing ball-carriers.

The Gopher offense remains in the early stages of an offensive transition away from the Tanner Morgan era, with Athan Kaliakmanis under center. The first two games have been a rollercoaster ride for the young QB; you see the arm talent come in spurts, but the poor decision-making often comes along with it. He is going to have opportunities against this leaky Tar Heel secondary, can he take advantage? It will be the first road start of the fall for Kaliakmanis and while he has already played in several rowdy environments, how he handles it will go a long way in determining Minnesota's fortunes. The good news is that last the Gophers appear to have found their go-to back last week after an underwhelming opener. Freshman Darius Taylor notched 193 yards in the win over Eastern Michigan and looks like has a real chance to emerge as the guy his first season on campus. Veterans Sean Tyler and Bryce Williams are still going to feature in, but could this be a huge encore opportunity for Taylor? Certainly, the Tar Heels have better athletes on the field than Eastern Michigan, but this rush defense has had its struggles under Mack Brown. Yet, the X-factor of the game may end up coming down to the Gopher O-Line versus North Carolina pass rush. The Tar Heels pounded Spencer Rattler and the Gamecocks all night in the opener, but weren't quite able to match that last week. Minnesota has questions up front and if Kaliakmanis doesn't have time to move, it's hard to imagine this offense stringing together enough points to match Maye going the other way.

This is one of those early-season contests where you flip a coin and let it be. We still don't have a great idea on who either of these teams are, and both have issues they're trying to smooth out at this juncture of the season. Picking the home team feels a bit like a cop out, but Maye should be able to get things rolling against this Gopher secondary, and the Minnesota offense still appears to be figuring it out. The Heels are the safer pick right now.

The Pick: North Carolina, 31 Minnesota, 27


Other Picks

(#15) Kansas State Wildcats @ Missouri Tigers -- Old Big 12 foes collide in Columbia, which feels like it could be upset territory. The Wildcats have looked good early, while Missouri barely squeaked out a home win over Middle Tennessee, so this doesn't feel super difficult.

The Pick: Kansas State, 28 Missouri, 16

South Carolina Gamecocks @ (#1) Georgia Bulldogs -- South Carolina has been an occasional thorn in the side for Georgia over the years, but what are the chances they go into Sanford Stadium and upset the nation's top team?

The Pick: Georgia, 38 South Carolina, 20

BYU Cougars @ Arkansas Razorbacks -- An underrated game on the Week Three docket, BYU seemed to figure things out offensively last weekend and could give Arkansas a fright at home. Yet, heading into Fayetteville and coming out victorious is an arduous task.

The Pick: Arkansas, 24 BYU, 21

Upset: (#14) LSU Tigers @ Mississippi State Bulldogs -- I don't love many of the upset opportunities on the board this week, so this feels like a bit of a settle. With that being said, I have real concerns about LSU's secondary, and Mississippi State is going to look to throw the ball around in Starkville.

The Pick: Mississippi State, 35 LSU, 31

Superdog (covers > 21 point spread) Wyoming Cowboys (+31) @ Texas Longhorns -- Prime hangover opportunity for the Longhorns as they welcome the Cowboys to town. Wyoming isn't going to match Texas offensively, but they'll muck it up enough to cover.

Lock of the Week: Appalachian State Mountaineers (-8) vs. East Carolina Pirates -- Could Appalachian State be a bit drained after their heartbreaking loss to UNC last Saturday? Perhaps, but they'll get East Carolina at home and the Pirates have done little to inspire confidence they'll be able to cover this spread.

Thursday, September 7, 2023

College Football Picks 2023: Week Two

Quinn Ewers, Texas


Current Picks Record: 6-3

Upset: 1-0

Superdogs: 0-1

Locks: 1-0


(#11) Texas Longhorns @ (#3) Alabama Crimson Tide

Line: Alabama -7

O/U: 54

Two of college football's most identifiable brands collide in one of the biggest non-conference games of the year, with Alabama and Texas running it back after a thrilling game in 2022. Alabama came out on top by one single point in Austin last fall, and now returns to Bryant-Denny Stadium to face a Longhorn team aiming for a program-defining victory.

We didn't get much of an impression from either team during Week One, as both rolled over weak non-conference foes. Alabama pummeled Middle Tennessee, while the Longhorns handled in-state opponent Rice by nearly four touchdowns. It also didn't give us much of an opportunity to answer the questions that remain present for each program as they head into a pivotal weekend. For Alabama, that's the quarterback situation, which has hung around the program since Bryce Young played his final collegiate game. Jalen Milroe took hold as the starter in the opener and showcased his impressive running ability, but the Longhorns are going to have a gameplan dedicated to him this year. We still aren't completely sure how effective of a passer he is, and it wouldn't be shocking to see either, or both, of Tyler Buchner and Ty Simpson. That means the Tide are going to keep it on the ground early and often with Jase McClellan and Roydell Williams, set to operate behind a powerful Alabama offensive line. It will be quite a test for a Texas defensive front that has all the tools to be great, but has too often disappointed. These are the types of games that will tell us a lot about how ready Texas in general is for an SEC jump; they outplayed the Tide for most of the contest a year ago and matched up well at every spot. But, how they handle the Tide's physicality and toughness will go a long way in determining the outcome.

The Longhorn offense took a bit of time to get rolling this past Saturday against Rice, but seemed to hit their stride in the second half and now face a stiff challenge in the mighty Crimson Tide. Quarterback Quinn Ewers is the X-factor; his injury in this game a season ago was the major force that swung it in Alabama's favor, which is likely to give the second-year starter a feeling of unfinished business. Ewers' mullet may be gone, but he's still known for his bold and fiery play-style, which is a sight to behold when it's working, but can go the other way just as often. You do wonder how he is going to handle the raucous environment that Tuscaloosa has to offer, but having an elite support system should help. Texas is loaded with elite pass-catchers, including Xavier Worthy, Adonai Mitchell and Jordan Whittington, while tight end Ja'Tavion Sanders presents a matchup problem. Yet, we still don't have a great understanding of the Longhorn run game at this early juncture in the season. Jaydon Blue and Jonathon Brooks, who are the "veterans" in the room, finished as the leading rushers in the season-opening win, but will that be the case moving forward? I believe Texas has to have some semblance of balance if they are to topple the Tide, but there are certainly questions here. Fortunately for Texas, the Alabama defense still has some things to work out on their end under new coordinator Kevin Steele and despite a fearsome pass rush, there may be some opportunities for big plays to abound.

Even though they ultimately came up short, Texas proved a lot of detractors wrong by going toe-to-toe with Alabama over four quarters last fall. One of them being me, who envisioned it to be a comfortable victory for the Tide, even on the road. And the thing is, I really like this Texas team. The passing attack has a chance to be special, they've bolstered their play in the trenches, and there's the usual collection of star-power throughout the roster. Yet, it feels impossible to get a read on the Longhorns each and every week and I'm still not sure what to expect in 2023. Pair that with the fact this game is in Tuscaloosa, I think the smart money remains on the Tide.

The Pick: Alabama, 35 Texas, 30


(#20) Ole Miss Rebels @ (#24) Tulane Green Wave

Line: Ole Miss -7.5

O/U: 67

Although the preeminent game in the South this weekend is unquestionably Texas-Alabama, the mid-afternoon duel between Tulane and Ole Miss shouldn't get lost in the shuffle. Ole Miss goes on the road to New Orleans to prove their worth as an SEC contender, while the Green Wave held off an upset bid by South Alabama in the opener and looks like a Group of Five favorite again.

Ole Miss came out and dropped 73 points in their opener against Mercer, punctuated by 524 yards through the air. Quarterback Jaxson Dart looks like he'll be the guy once again, but the Rebels also used both of the other signal-callers on the roster in Spencer Sanders and Walker Howard in the opener. Granted, that's not much of a surprise in a blowout over an FCS opponent, but this quarterback situation remains worth watching. Sanders in particular has plenty of experience at the Power Five level and will likely remain a factor in the offense all season long. Yet, I envision Lane Kiffin and staff will lean more on their ground game this week against the Green Wave. Lane always seems to have an elite running back on the roster and this year it's Quinshon Judkins, although others like Ulysses Bentley IV and Matt Jones are also going to get their touches. They face a Tulane defense that was elite a season ago, but is still in a bit of a transition as they replace several key pieces, both on the staff and on the field. They looked the part in the opener by holding South Alabama to just 265 yards of total offense, but the Rebels are a whole different animal and Lane always seems to have some tricks up his sleeve.

The Green Wave offense is also going to be led by their man under center, as Michael Pratt is one of the top Group of Five quarterbacks in the nation. Actually, scratch that, he's one of the best quarterbacks in the country, period. The veteran signal-caller tossed four touchdowns against a quality South Alabama defense in the opener and will have his opportunities against the Rebels. Jha'Quan Jackson was the big-play option in the first game and looks like he has a chance to be special, while Lawrence Keys II is a former Notre Dame transfer who is the type of talent you don't always see at the Group of Five level. They have a chance to blow things up against a shaky Ole Miss secondary, but this Rebel defense is an interesting watch. For all the consternation Pete Golding created during his time at Alabama, I do think he's a good defensive mind and the Rebels hit the portal hard this offseason to address holes on the defense. How quickly those defensive pieces gel this year will be crucial, but it wouldn't be surprising if they're still figuring things out in this one.

I thought Tulane was firmly on upset alert in Week One, but they looked the part against South Alabama and should be ready to show their stuff against an SEC opponent here. The last time we see them face a Power Five team, the Green Wave came back and shocked Caleb Williams and USC and while I like their chances again, I still lean the Rebels. The roster is just deeper and this feels like a game where Lane is going to show what he can do as a play-caller against a tough defense. Yet, I'm not rushing to pick, or bet, this one and feel like this could be in coin flip territory.

The Pick: Ole Miss, 38 Tulane, 28

(#23) Texas A&M Aggies @ Miami Hurricanes

Line: Texas A&M -4

O/U: 51

Texas A&M and Miami were two of the most disappointing teams in college football a season ago, both lagging through ugly 5-7 campaigns that left a bad taste in the mouths of their fans. Yet, both programs are hopeful that they reversed their misfortunes over the offseason and set themselves up for success in 2023. The first notable challenge of the year should be an interesting barometer test as both prepare for the long haul of the fall.

A season ago, the most points the Aggies managed in one game came in the final game of the year, as they dropped 38 on an LSU team that was looking ahead to the SEC Championship Game. In one week with Bobby Petrino at the helm of the offense, they smashed that total, with 52 points in the opener. Granted, New Mexico isn't exactly top-tier competition, but it's still a good sign for the offense as they gear up for the Hurricanes. Quarterback Conner Weigman received plenty of attention over the offseason and looked the part in the opener, taking care of the football and finishing with five passing touchdowns. He's aided by one of the best receivers anywhere in college football in Evan Stewart and a healthy Ainias Smith should work wonders for this offense, as the do-it-all playmaker can line up anywhere on the field and bust open a big play. It's likely that this aerial attack is going to continue to play an outsized role, at least early on, as the Aggies figure out their ground game. Devon Achane is gone and it's an open competition to see who will replace him, with Amari Daniels, Le'Veon Moss, Rueben Owens, and sixth-year David Bailey hoping to all be in the mix. I suspect Owens will eventually win out, but the true freshman is still acclimating to the collegiate level, and this ground attack didn't look altogether too dominant in the opener, averaging 4.6 yards per rush. That is reason for concern; Miami is significantly more athletic and talented at every level than New Mexico and they feature real star-power on the back-end, notably safety Kamren Kinchens. This should be a good test for Petrino and this offense, which is still feeling each other out so early on after years of Jimbo Fisher operating as play-caller.

It's a similar story at Miami, who overhauled their offense after a disastrous 2022 and will be looking to show their new and improved look in this one. Offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson is going to want to throw the ball all over the field and he has the optimal quarterback to do so in Tyler Van Dyke, but the Hurricanes still appeared to be finding their rhythm in the season-opening victory over Miami-Ohio. That's to be expected after such a major shake-up, but there are questions as to who will be the guy, or guys, out wide for Miami in 2023. A healthy Xavier Restrepo is huge and Colbie Young was the star of the opener, but this will be an intriguing watch as the season goes on. The good news is that the ground game looked sharp in the 38-3 demolition of the Redhawks and even though Dawson will look to be aggressive, the 'Canes will still look for balance. The main focus for me, however, is going to be the offensive line play. Miami was a complete disaster up front throughout 2022 and despite numerous offseason additions, this group still has issues to work out. You always wonder how a unit like this full of transfers is going to gel, and Texas A&M is not the ideal challenge so early on. The Aggies are loaded in their front seven with future NFL talent and they are going to come at the 'Canes for the entire four quarters. Whether Miami is able to keep Van Dyke upright and potentially open things up on the ground is likely to be the deciding factor. 

I think both these programs are due for a rebound year in 2023, but it wouldn't shock me if this is a bit of an ugly game. There are brand-new offenses in play here, both going up against strong defenses that boast loads of NFL talent. The over/under at 51 seems a tad ambitious to me, but I like the Aggies to win outright. I have a lot of trust in this defense, which has carried this team at times throughout the Fisher era, and the offense looked crisp in the opener. Again, you have to take everything with a grain of salt from Week One, especially this year, but I think there's enough here to take A&M.

The Pick: Texas A&M, 24 Miami, 20


Other Picks

(#10) Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ NC State Wolfpack -- Sam Hartman has looked like the quarterback Notre Dame desperately missed last season and even on the road, the Irish are balanced enough on both sides of the ball to survive an NC State upset bid.

The Pick: Notre Dame, 31 NC State, 17

(#12) Utah Utes @ Baylor Bears -- I don't believe we should overreact about Baylor after their shocking loss to Texas State over the weekend and the way college football works, this is prime upset territory. Yet, Kyle Whittingham should have his team ready to go for the road trip and I trust the Utes.

The Pick: Utah, 27 Baylor, 16

(#13) Oregon Ducks @ Texas Tech Red Raiders -- Much like Baylor, I don't want to overreact to Texas Tech's upset defeat at the hands of Wyoming in Week One. Lubbock is a tough place to play, but the Ducks have too much talent top-to-bottom to let this one slip away.

The Pick: Oregon, 45 Texas Tech, 35

Upset: Nebraska Cornhuskers @ (#22) Colorado Buffaloes -- Like I predicted, Deion and the Buffaloes got the big win of the first weekend and unsurprisingly, the media hype around this team borders on nauseating. This is college football, so they're bound for a come back to Earth moment against a Nebraska defense that looked legit in Week One.

The Pick: Nebraska, 27 Colorado, 21

Superdog (covers > 21 point spread) Kent State Golden Flashes (+38) @ Arkansas Razorbacks -- It was a rough debut for Kenni Burns at Kent State, as the Golden Flashes lost to UCF by 50, but I like their chances of covering this spread. Arkansas could keep it on the ground early and often, which should help close this line.

The Pick: Arkansas, 42 Kent State, 10

Lock of the Week: Iowa Hawkeyes (-3.5) @ Iowa State Cyclones -- Matt Campbell and the Cyclones got the monkey of their backs by defeating Iowa in the Cy-Hawk last fall. But, I have a feeling this Hawekeye team is much improved this fall and Kirk Ferentz has absolutely owned ISU.

The Pick: Iowa, 20 Iowa State, 10