Tuesday, January 28, 2020

5 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Teams for March Madness 2020

Geo Baker & Rutgers
With college football now officially in the rear-view, the next college sporting event? None other than March Madness. If you haven't been following college basketball so far this season, one thing you should know: this has been the year of upsets, and this March is sure to be crazier than ever. With that in mind, I break down five teams who could cause the most chaos come NCAA Tournament time. Not all of these teams are even guaranteed a spot in the Big Dance, but they're worth keeping a close eye on as we inch closer and closer to Tournament time.

Liberty Flames (19-3 overall, 5-2 conference)
Conference: Atlantic Sun
Last NCAA Tournament Appearance: 2019
Projected Seed: 11-14
Although two consecutive losses have hurt Liberty's chances of playing in the Big Dance, this is still an incredibly dangerous mid-major. The Flames defeated Mississippi State as a 12-seed in the Tournament last spring, and most of that team returned this season, including guard Georgie Pacheco-Ortiz and forward Scottie James. This isn't going to be a team that wins on their offense, but instead on their defense, the second best in the entire country, allowing just 51.5 points per game. They play physical defense on the wings, and they don't allow anything down low. They'll still have to figure some things out over the next month and a half to return to the postseason, but this program has established itself as one of the stronger in the mid-major ranks. They also just so happen to play in a conference known for producing Cinderella stories, the Atlantic Sun.

Vermont Catamounts (15-6 overall, 5-1 conference)
Conference: America East
Last NCAA Tournament Appearance: 2019
Projected Seed: 12-13
Speaking of top mid-major programs, one only has to go to Burlington, Vermont, to see an extremely dangerous UVM program. Since 2010, the Catamounts have played in the NCAA Tournament four times, including 2019, when they battled fourth-seeded Florida State for the entire forty minutes. They'll be an incredibly tough out for anybody they see this year, assuming they can hold off teams like Albany, Hartford and Stony Brook in the America East. This is another really quality defensive team with veteran experience, two of the most common components of Cinderella teams. However, they can still score points in a hurry when necessary, thanks in large part to forward Anthony Lamb. Although Lamb's numbers have dipped down from 2018-2019, when he averaged 21.2 points per game on 51% shooting, he's still a prolific scorer that can get to the rim against any defender. If he can catch fire, the Catamounts have enough elsewhere to really overwhelm some opponents. They've been popular upset picks in the Tournament last year and in 2017 and haven't been able to deliver, but I think this is the Vermont team that's finally going to get it done.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights (15-5 overall, 6-3 conference)
Conference: Big Ten
Last NCAA Tournament Appearance: 1991
Projected Seed: 6-10
It's hard to say how much of a "dark horse" Rutgers is this year, as their play this season has been one of the great stories in college basketball. They have their best team since coming to the Big Ten, and look poised to make their first NCAA Tournament appearance since 1991. What's very impressive is how Steve Pikiell has built the program: by landing unheralded recruits and slowly developing them into the system. It's a difficult recipe in the Big Ten, but it has left this team tough, gritty and experienced. They play hard for the entire game and remind me a lot of last year's Texas Tech team. They might not have a Jarrett Culver on this team, but Geo Baker is a stud when healthy, and Ron Harper Jr. has looked like he can be a leading man. Depending on what happens over the next half of the conference schedule, the Scarlet Knights could have a massive seed range. They have a brutal schedule to finish up the regular season in late February and March, but I think that should be a good thing for this team. It will give them the experience and fortitude they will need to succeed in the Big Dance.

Memphis Tigers (14-5 overall, 3-3 conference)
Conference: American Athletic
Last NCAA Tournament Appearance: 2014
Projected Seed: 7-11
Memphis is a team on the decline right now, still fresh off a shocking 40-point loss to Tulsa. But, based on pure talent, this is the type of team that can create some real chaos. If they can get hot, with their athleticism and scoring punch, I'd watch out. Of course, this prediction would look even better if James Wiseman was still enrolled at the school, but after running into eligibility issues, he decided to prepare for the NBA Draft. Losing the extremely talented rim protector hurts the Tigers on both ends, but there has been other pieces that can pick up the slack. Another former five-star recruit, Precious Achiuwa, has emerged as a real go-to guy who can play both ends as well as anybody. Alongside him, fellow youngsters D.J. Jeffries and Lester Quinones have also stepped up, and seem to be getting more comfortable at the college level. Of course, this team's lack of experience is a significant detriment, but we have seen teams of true freshman make deep Tournament runs (2013 Kentucky, 2015 Duke come to mind). It wouldn't be crazy to see the same thing happen with this Memphis Tigers squad.

William & Mary Tribe (15-7 overall, 7-2 conference)
Conference: Colonial Athletic Association
Last NCAA Tournament Appearance: Never
Projected Seed: 13-16
William & Mary holds a distinction only three other original Division 1 basketball programs can claim: never being to the NCAA Tournament. With Northwestern reaching the Big Dance, that list now includes the Tribe, The Citadel, Army and St. Francis (New York). Obviously, that would mean William & Mary just getting to March Madness would be a fabulous story, but I get the sense this team could be ready for something more. This is a balanced group that plays both ends incredibly well, doesn't turn the ball over, has loads of experience, and a proven leading man. That leading man is senior forward Nathan Knight who averages a double-double with 20.5 PPG and 10.4 RPG (while shooting 54% from the field). Joining Knight down low is another behemoth, seven-footer Andy Van Vliet, who is a former Wisconsin transfer that can step out and hit the long ball (39 percent). It's rare in modern college basketball to lean so heavily on two massive forwards who generally do most of their work in the paint, but it works for the Tribe. There a tough matchup not only for mid-major or low-major foes, but also high-major teams that simply don't have the size. This team also earns a spot on the list coming from another conference that has had some incredible Cinderella stories. The Colonial Athletic was the home of two of my favorite March Madness teams, George Mason's Final Four team in 2006, and VCU in 2011.

Others to Keep An Eye On
Winthrop Eagles, Projected Seed: 13-16... Winthrop beat St. Mary's in the non-conference and are currently riding a 10-game winning streak. They'd be a tough opener for any seed, assuming they can clamp down the Big South.
Iowa Hawkeyes, Projected Seed: 4-8... The Hawkeyes have an explosive offense that can hit you in a lot of different ways. Luka Garza has emerged as a bonafide star down low, while Joe Weiskamp is a tough guard on the wing.
Ohio State Buckeyes, Projected Seed: 6-10... Big Ten play has been rough for Ohio State, who has limped to a 3-6 record in the league, but there non-conference play showed the ceiling this team has. They beat Villanova and Kentucky, while dominating a North Carolina team that was at full strength.
Austin Peay Governors, Projected Seed: 12-16... The Ohio Valley Conference is likely to come down to either Murray State or Austin Peay, who are both 8-0 in the league right now. I like the Governors' chances; they have an explosive offense averaging nearly 79 a game, and one of college basketball's most underrated players in Terry Taylor.
LSU Tigers, Projected Seed: 3-7... Another team that may be a loose fit for the "dark horse" label, LSU is currently 6-0 inside the SEC. However, they still haven't got much national attention. This is a tough, veteran-laden team that doesn't have the drama swirling around them and coach Will Wade that they did last year.

Monday, January 20, 2020

2020 Way-Too-Early College Football Top 25

1. Clemson Tigers
Joseph Ngata, Clemson
Even though Dabo Swinney and Clemson were unable to win their third National Title in four seasons last Monday night, but don't expect the Tigers to slow down anytime soon. They have two Heisman frontrunners back in the fold, with junior QB Trevor Lawrence and senior running back Travis Etienne. Lawrence will probably be the No. 1 NFL Draft selection come spring of 2021, but Etienne's return was a surprise. It's clear that he wanted to end his Clemson career with a National Title, despite getting second or third round grades. Also back offensively is wide out Justyn Ross, along with breakout candidates Frank Ladson and Joseph Ngata. The other side of the ball is set as well, thanks to the continuity under coordinator Brent Venables. Venables will ensure the group sees no drop-off in 2020, even losing a number of pieces to the NFL. The defensive line could be particularly strong, as Xavier Thomas keeps getting better.
2. Ohio State Buckeyes
Ryan Day's first season in Columbus was a major success, but the next step is clear: a National Championship. The Buckeyes have enough pieces to do just that, and bringing back a veteran QB in Justin Fields is a major reason why. Fields should be even better in his second year in the offense, and there are several breakout possibilities to keep an eye on. The one I'm the most excited about is going to be receiver Garrett Wilson, who flashed significant potential this past fall. Chase Young may be gone from the defense, but you expect somebody to step up and fill the pass rushing void. The secondary is also going to reload, as they've done consistently this past half decade. Jeffrey Okudah is a huge loss, but Shaun Wade's return will be instrumental in keeping this defense stingy.
3. Alabama Crimson Tide
Two straight seasons of no National Titles is almost expected in most places in college football, but not in Tuscaloosca. You get the feeling that Nick Saban and the Tide are going to be back with a vengeance looking ahead to 2020, and there are some significant holdovers. Najee Harris and DeVonta Smith were two surefire NFL Draft picks who decided to play their senior seasons. Harris has the chance to be a Heisman favorite, while Smith will form a potent 1-2 combo on the outside with speed demon Jaylen Waddle. The biggest question for the offense is going to be at quarterback, where Tua Tagovailoa moves on. Mac Jones looked good taking over for Tua, but expect him to be pushed by touted true freshman Bryce Young. The other side of the ball was a problem for Alabama, which isn't the Saban DNA. Expect them to really do a 180, as linebacker Dylan Moses is back and healthy, while Patrick Surtain Jr. is going to be a contender for the Jim Thorpe Award in the secondary.
4. Oklahoma Sooners
Forget about the 63-28 loss in the CFB Playoff semifinal to LSU, focus on this: Oklahoma has now won five straight Big 12 Titles. That's impressive in any conference, let a lone a Power Five that is often wacky like the Big 12. The Sooners seem like they have the pieces in place to keep this thing rolling, especially with Matt Rhule off to the NFL. Jalen Hurts might be gone at quarterback, but anybody that is plugged into the system seems to have success under Lincoln Riley. Spencer Rattler is expected to be next in line, and will be blessed with some fascinating skill position talent, including Kennedy Brooks, Jadon Hasselwood, Theo Wease and more. As usual, the defense is going to have some question marks, but should get better in their second season under the tutelage of Alex Grinch.
5. LSU Tigers
It's understandable that people are expecting a drop-off in Baton Rouge following the magical 2019 campaign. Not only will they have significant personnel losses (namely Joe Burrow), but the coaching staff was gutted, with passing game coordinator Joe Brady going back to the NFL, and D-Coordinator Dave Aranda taking the HC job at Baylor. But, this team still has serious talent on both sides of the ball, and I don't expect them to fall out of the Playoff conversation. Myles Brennan is slated as the likely quarterback for now, but don't be surprised if the Tigers are involved in the grad transfer market. Whoever takes over at QB will have some amazing receivers to throw to, including soon-to-be juniors Ja'Marr Chase & Terrace Marshall Jr. Chase was dominant all 2019, winning the Biletnikoff Award and capping it off with a dominant performance in the National Championship. The defense also had a great National Championship after an up-and-down year, but losing Aranda is significant. The good news is that the Tigers still have one of the nation's top defenders in Derek Stingley Jr., who played well beyond his years as a true freshman this season.
6. Oregon Ducks
A resurgent 2019 seemed to indicate that Oregon is back in the national conversation, and they look like the team to beat in the Pac-12. Mario Cristobal has done a superb job building the program back up, and there are serious athletes on both sides of the ball. The obvious concern going into 2020 is the absence of veteran QB Justin Herbert, which is a situation to monitor. Tyler Shough threw the ball 15 times in relief of Herbert this past fall, making him the tentative favorite heading into the spring. Don't be surprised if the Ducks are very active in the transfer portal, even as they missed out on Jamie Newman. The rest of the offense has the chance to be special, with Travis Dye and C.J. Verdell forming a 1-2 combo in the backfield once again, while Mycah Pittman looks like a future star at wide out. The defense got some major returns, including veteran Jordan Scott and corner Deommodore Lenoir. The veteran returnees, as well as the return of budding star Kayvon Thibodeaux should make the defense the Pac-12's best.
7. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
2019's 11-2 season made it three straight double-digit victory seasons in South Bend, making them one of the more consistent programs in college football right now. The ingredients are again in place for this team to be a Playoff contender again. The return of Ian Book at quarterback was an important first step, and it will be interesting to see what he does in this offense. With former OC Chip Long now gone, former ND QB Tommy Rees is the new coordinator. He called a great game in the Camping World Bowl, but can he do it over an entire season? The rest of the offense has holes, but Jafar Armstrong can do it all, and Northwestern transfer Bennett Skowronek could make waves. The defense has the chance to be once again very good, and it's worth keeping an eye on sophomore safety Kyle Hamilton. He was really good as a true freshman, and could be one of the best defensive backs in the country in 2020.
8. Florida Gators
The Gators put together an impressive 2019 when you consider their starting quarterback, Feleipe Franks, was out for the year within the first few weeks. Franks is now transferring, leaving the offense in the hands of Kyle Trask, who may actually be an upgrade. Trask played really well down the stretch this fall, even with the lack of help from the Gator ground attack. The Florida defense loses some notable pieces, but they have no shortage of talent ready to step up. The news that cornerback Marco Wilson was returning for his senior season was a surprise, and Gator fans are excited about the potential of fellow defensive back Kaiir Elam. With Georgia possibly taking a slight step back, I think Florida has a great opportunity to retake the SEC East.
9. Georgia Bulldogs
UGA came out as a big winner in the transfer portal market earlier when they managed to land Wake Forest's Jamie Newman. The dual-threat quarterback put up great numbers in the ACC Atlantic, but can that translate to SEC football? The rest of the quarterback room in Athens doesn't inspire much confidence. The rest of the offense is extremely talented, but still unproven in a lot of areas. Expect tailback Zamir White to become the fresh go-to guy with D'Andre Swift off to the NFL, while wide out George Pickens flashed his star potential in the bowl victory over Baylor. The great news is that Kirby Smart still has a great defense coming back, that is full of speed and depth. Nolan Smith and Nakobe Dean are going to thrive in another year in the SEC, while cornerbacks Tyson Campbell and Eric Stokes will lock things up on the perimeter.
10. Penn State Nittany Lions
A dominant Cotton Bowl performance made it clear that linebacker Micah Parsons is one of college football's great defenders, and he returns for another year in Happy Valley. Parsons will have to play an even larger role with some of the losses Penn State suffers on defense, but the offense has the chance to be really good. Sean Clifford was rock-solid this past season, but will be playing in a new offense after OC Ricky Rahne left for Old Dominion. He'll miss his top target, the dynamic K.J. Hamler, but tight end Pat Freiermuth is one of college football's best. It will be interesting to see which one of these running backs shines into the spring and summer, whether it's Journey Brown, Noah Cain and Devyn Ford.
11. Auburn Tigers
The SEC West is going to be wild in 2020, but Auburn won't be lost in the shuffle. Gus Malzahn's group will lose a few important names on defense, but their offense has the chance to be one of the nation's best. The hope is that Bo Nix can large strides under new coordinator Chad Morris, and he'll have plenty of help. Wide receiver Seth Williams is vastly underrated, and Anthony Schwartz should be back on the outside. How the defense is able to recover from the losses of Derrick Brown and Marlon Davidson will be intriguing. The secondary will need to improve if the Tigers have any shot at taking the division. No Oregon in the non-conference helps, although UNC will be a difficult neutral site matchup on the 2020 schedule.
12. Minnesota Golden Gophers
A resounding Outback Bowl win put a perfect cap on Minnesota's 2019, but the next step is a Big Ten West Title. Head coach P.J. Fleck loses some big names, such as receiver Tyler Johnson and defensive back Antoine Winfield Jr., but I expect the Gophers to still be a tough out. Tanner Morgan was superb in his first full season running the offense, but will have to adjust to a new offense under Matt Simon and Mike Sanford Jr. He may miss Johnson, but Rashod Bateman looks like he is a legitimate Biletnikoff Award contender. He was absolutely unstoppable at times this season, and will be the vocal point of the offense next year. What the defense will look like is still unclear, but losing leads like Winfield and Carter Coughlin hurts.
13. Michigan Wolverines
It was a confusing 2019 for Michigan that just never felt right, although a 9-4 record isn't something to completely throw away. A new quarterback will be leading the way with Shea Patterson now gone, with Dylan McCaffrey the likely favorite. He does have explosiveness returning alongside him, but the Wolverines really need to re-establish their power run game. Zach Charbonnet could be in store to be a workhorse, ready for a huge sophomore season. Don Brown is going to be back to lead the defense, but it has issues to solve. The secondary is going to need to improve if Michigan is to overcome a tough schedule. UM should still hover around, but right now, it's hard to see them overtaking Ohio State or Penn State in the Big Ten East.
14. Texas A&M Aggies
Suffering through one of the nation's toughest schedules, it wasn't super shocking to see Texas A&M regress to 8-5 in Jimbo Fisher's second year. It did put some pressure on Fisher and the Aggies heading into 2020, but an easier schedule should set the baseline for an improved campaign. Kellen Mond is back to run the offense, but he was very bad at times in '19. Where is the guy that threw for 430 yards against Clemson in 2018? A&M will need him to re-emerge, and he does have plenty of playmakers to help. Tight ends Jalen Wydermeyer and a healthy Baylor Cupp could work wonders in this offense, but the defense is going to have to improve. They lose pieces on the D-Line, but coordinator Mike Elko has done a really good job in College Station.
15. Wisconsin Badgers
Replacing Jonathan Taylor is a tall order, but you still get the feeling the Badgers won't relinquish the Big Ten West without a fight. Nakia Watson is expected to take over for Taylor as the featured back, and he will run behind a great offensive line per usual. I actually think that the loss of Quintez Cephus may be felt more than Taylor. Cephus was one of their lone playmakers at times in 2019, and I'm not sure who else Wisconsin can look to. You'd think the Badger defense would reload once again in 2020, but losing Chris Orr is significant. However, retaining coordinator Jim Leonhard once again ensures a pretty stout unit.
16. UNC Tar Heels
Sam Howell, North Carolina

I'm betting on a big jump this 2020 from North Carolina, and I think they'll become a popular dark horse pick going into next season. They were a great story this fall, and have one of the nation's best young quarterbacks in Sam Howell. Howell was the real deal all season long, and he'll have a full off-season under his belt at this point. Howell is also blessed with a good supporting cast, including receivers Dyami Brown and Dazz Newsome. The defense has a little bit more questions, but the return of former QB Chaz Surratt at linebacker is going to be huge. He's a terrific linebacker, and an excellent leader in the locker room. Still, the Tar Heels aren't at the class of Clemson right now, but they still look like a tentative favorite in the Coastal, with Virginia rebuilding.
17. Boise State Broncos
The big win for Boise State this off-season was the fact Bryan Harsin remains their head football coach. The BSU alum has long been rumored for a number of Power Five jobs, but for now remains on the sidelines in Boise. Harsin could have one of his best offenses since becoming Broncos head coach, as they're loaded with skill position talent. George Holani and Robert Mahone are back at running back, while the receiver corps should include Khalil Skair and C.T. Thomas. At quarterback, Hank Bachmeier had a very promising freshman season, and should get the full keys to the offense. Boise State's defense does have some question marks, but after going 12-2 in 2019, the Broncos are still one of the Group of Five's premier programs, and the team to beat in the Mountain West.
18. Oklahoma State Cowboys
Can anybody overtake Oklahoma in the Big 12? There toughest challenger in 2020 might actually be inside the state, as the Oklahoma State Cowboys are a real Playoff dark horse. The Cowboys got a big win earlier this month when running back Chuba Hubbard announced he would return. One of the most explosive runners in recent memory, Hubbard should have won the Doak Walker Award this fall. He'll be joined by another proven offensive weapon in wide out Tylan Wallace, who was a finalist for the Biletnikoff Award in 2018 before suffering through injuries this past season. He is one of the top receivers in the sport when 100 percent. Those two should lead a big-play offense that will put up points, but quarterback and O-Line play will be interesting to watch. Spencer Sanders is now the guy at QB, but can he really take the next step? Learning a new offense after the departure of OC Sean Gleeson doesn't help.
19. Texas Longhorns
Even though last season was a major disappointment in Austin, all signs point to a redemptive 2020. Getting Sam Ehlinger back for a senior season was a big win for Tom Herman and the rest of the staff. Ehlinger is a tremendous leader who has proven he can play on the sport's biggest stages and win. However, Ehlinger is going to need help from an offense that struggled to run the ball effectively in '19, and is losing their most trusted wide out, Devin Duvarney. The hope around the Longhorns is that the defense will also be improved after a frustrating fall. They have a new coordinator in former Rutgers head man Chris Ash, and there is no shortage of talent, especially in the back-end. Safety Caden Sterns had a tough 2019, but he has the talent to be an All-American next year.
20. Arizona State Sun Devils
The Pac-12 South promises to be wide open in 2020. Utah will almost surely take a step back with some of their losses, USC is in a weird spot going into the new year, and nobody else inspires much confidence. That leaves Arizona State in unfamiliar territory as the likely favorite in the division. The Sun Devils are coming off an 8-5 year that had some incredible highs and a few brutal lows. The great news is that they have a budding star at the sport's most important position, in QB Jayden Daniels. Daniels looked the part throughout 2019, even playing some of his best ball against several elite defenses. He's a Heisman dark horse to watch throughout the spring. Daniels will miss his favorite target, veteran Brandon Aiyuk, but Herm Edwards managed to bring in a stellar recruiting class, and guys like true frosh Johnny Wilson could surprise. Edwards will also bring back a lot of his defense, which will be especially stout at the linebacker position. That group is now coached by Antonio Pierce, the former NFL star, whose done a superb job with the position group.
21. Cincinnati Bearcats
It's no secret the American Athletic Conference has become the strongest Group of Five conference, but there are questions about who the team to beat will be in 2020 for the league. Memphis will still be tough, and I expect UCF to improve, but the best bet may be Cincinnati. They've now posted back-to-back 11-win campaigns under coach Luke Fickell, and a lot is set to return. Fickell is blessed with a proven veteran at QB in Desmond Ridder, along with a physical defense he has done a great job of crafting. Elijah Ponder and Michael Pitts will anchor an imposing front seven that should play more like a P5 group than Group of Five, while the secondary should also be ripe with experience. Cincy might not have the high-scoring offense of former AAC Champs, but they should win their own way: a methodical offense, and a well-coached, experienced defense.
22. Iowa State Cyclones
Iowa State has developed into a consistent fixture near the top of the Big 12 standings under coach Matt Campbell, but you get the feeling they're still waiting for the major breakthrough in Ames. The 2020 group could be the one to really get them over the top, but the Cyclones have to figure out a way to finish off games. Campbell has done a great job with the program, but his teams have struggled to win close ones, which has restricted any chance of making a serious run at a Big 12 Title. Back in the fold in '20 will be QB Brock Purdy, who keeps getting better, as well as budding tailback Breece Hall. ISU averaged over 32 PPG in 2019, a number that should get even better with the experience set to return. The defense has to get more consistent, but guys like linebacker Mike Rose and safety Greg Eisworth puts them in a good spot.
23. Iowa Hawkeyes
Even though Nate Stanley is graduating, Iowa still looks like a Big Ten West favorite looking ahead at 2020. They have a rising star at running back in Tyler Goodson, who should be in store for a big year. He is joined on offense by one of the conference's most versatile players in Ihmir Smith-Marsette, as well as a strong O-Line, bolstered by the return of Alaric Jackson. There are a number of notable names departing from the defense, chief among them being A.J. Epenesa. However, the Hawkeyes reload on defense as well as anybody in the country, and you expect them to be tough once more.
24. Memphis Tigers
Mike Norvell may be off to Florida State, but I don't expect the momentum to stop at Memphis. New coach Ryan Silverfield still has loads of talent remaining from the Group of Five's best team, including a holdover at QB in Brady White. White is one of the nation's most underrated quarterbacks, and although there have been rumors of him transferring, the plan right now is for him to return to the Tigers. He will be joined by a number of other offensive pieces, including back Kenneth Gainwell and go-to wide out Damonte Coxie. The defense has more question marks, losing end Bryce Huff and a number of other contributors. Yet, it should still be serviceable for Memphis in 2020.
25. Purdue Boilermakers
My dark horse pick peeking ahead towards 2020 resides in West Lafayette. The Boilermakers had a tough 2019 due to injuries and a weak defense, but all signs point up in a big way in 2020. First off, dynamic do-it-all Rondale Moore should be fully healthy, and is a legit Heisman contender when 100 percent. He could form the best 1-2 punch at receiver in the Big Ten, with David Bell looking terrific in his absence. Whoever starts at quarterback should certainly benefit and if it's Aidan O'Connell, he looked rock-solid during his time in 2019. On defense, Markus Bailey will be sorely missed, even though he missed most of 2019 with a torn ACL. However, if you don't know who George Karlaftis is just yet, it's time to get acquainted. He was a huge get for Jeff Brohm and staff prior to this past season, and responded with 7.5 sacks as a true freshman. Paired with vet Lorenzo Neal, who passed on the NFL, Purdue should have a formidable pass rush.


Thursday, January 16, 2020

My Favorite Moments of the 2019 College Football Season

LSU officially capped off a magical 2019-20 season this past Monday, blowing past Clemson to finish off 15-0. Watching the Tigers dominate en route to their first National Title in over a decade was a fresh, relatively unexpected aspect of this college football season. However, it was far from the only interesting part of a season filled with shocking upsets, dominant individual performances and inspirational moments. With that in mind, I wanted to break my annual "Favorite Moments of the Season". Narrowing down this list to just ten was extremely difficult, so there were some notable exceptions.

Georgia State Stuns Tennessee in Season Opener

This may hurt Tennessee fans to remember, but from a college football fan in general, Georgia State's stunner of the Volunteers was an exciting way to open up the season. The Panthers were 24.5 point underdogs going into Knoxville, but outplayed Tennessee for the entire sixty minutes. Three Vol turnovers proved to really be the decisive factor, while a quarterback run from GSU's Dan Ellington with five minutes remaining really sealed the win. The loss immediately sent shockwaves through a Tennessee program that was considered a dark horse SEC East contender. The good news is that they've been able to recover, finishing the regular season 7-5 and 5-3 inside the SEC.

Joe Burrow's Heisman Candidacy Gets Rolling

Prior to 2019, the LSU-Texas matchup in Week 2 was widely viewed as one of the biggest non-conference games of the season. The eventual struggles by the Longhorns ended up making it less important in the grand scheme of things, but it was still crucial for LSU and their QB, Joe Burrow. Burrow had already gotten some people's attention with a five-touchdown showing against Georgia Southern in their opener, but his Heisman candidacy really got rolling against Texas. He outplayed UT's Sam Ehlinger to the tune of 471 yards and 4 touchdowns, while completing nearly 80 percent of his passes. The dominant showing laid the groundwork for this season's Heisman campaign, while it also developed LSU into the National Title frontrunner they would showcase the entirety of the season.

Clemson-UNC Goes Down to the Wire

Leaving Mack Brown's emotional postgame interview following the South Carolina win off this list was tough, but I still have some UNC representation here. The Tar Heels' resurgent season was one of the best storylines of the year, and it would've been even more impressive if they had taken down the ACC's Goliath, Clemson. The Heels fought with the Tigers the entire way, and down 21-14 late in the fourth, a one-yard TD rush from Javonte Williams set up an interesting scenario. Would Mack Brown go for the victory against the nation's No. 1 team, or let things go into overtime. Brown decided to go for it and despite a great effort from freshman quarterback Sam Howell, UNC came up just short, preserving Clemson's perfect season. I didn't love the play call from the Heels, but I respected the guts to go for the win. Even in a losing effort, this game really showcased the potential of this North Carolina program, and how quickly they've bought back into Brown at the helm.

DeVonta Smith Dominates Ole Miss

Great individual performances are always some of the most impressive moments of any college football season, and there were a lot to choose from in 2019. There might not have been a better individual showing in a game this season than what DeVonta Smith did against Ole Miss in late September. Nearly half of Smith's 11 receptions went for touchdowns, as his five touchdowns are a new Alabama record. An addition to the staggering amount of touchdowns, they were also lengthy catches, going for 74, 25, 23, 33 and 27 yards, helping Smith finish with 274 in total. Although  he wasn't able to turn the dominance into a Biletnikoff Award, Smith's shredding of the Rebel defense was a thrill to watch, and record-setting in a few ways.

Illinois Stuns Wisconsin

Sitting at 2-4 with absolutely no momentum, Illinois entered their Week 8 showdown with Wisconsin as a 30.5 point underdog. Not only were they struggling, Wisconsin was playing terrific football, at 6-0 and No. 6 in the country. They seemed to have control of the game for the vast majority of it, but college football is a sport where weird things tend to happen. The win probably for the Badgers with just minutes remaining in the fourth was as high as 98%, but a wacky decision to throw the ball backfired, as Jack Coan was intercepted. In response, the Illini was able to drive down the field and kicker James McCourt nailed game-winning field goal as time expired. As simply an objective college football fan, these types of upsets are what makes things so unpredictable and interesting. It didn't kill Wisconsin's season, as they still won the Big Ten West, but it was able to give Illinois the momentum needed to make their first bowl in the Lovie Smith era. It will go down as history as the biggest upset in the Big Ten the last 40 seasons.

Casey O'Brien & P.J. Fleck

Minnesota's 42-7 throttling of Rutgers on October 19th wasn't very surprising when you consider what both teams looked like this season. However, it was notable for one major reason: the appearance of Minnesota' Casey O'Brien. O'Brien's path to college football has been inspirational; O'Brien is a four-time cancer survivor who couldn't continue his dream of being a quarterback but remained around the game as a holder. Up 27-0 in the fourth quarter, Fleck decided to put in O'Brien for the hold, which he did to perfection. After coming off the field, O'Brien had an emotional embrace with Fleck, the coach who believed he could still be a part of a big-time college football program. This was an extremely inspiring moment to see O'Brien get on the field after all he has been through, while also reminding us of the power of college sports.

The SMU-Memphis Shootout

I love when College GameDay goes to unique locations, and they did just that by deciding to go to Memphis in Week 10. Sure, the Tigers have become one of the Group of Five's strongest programs, but this was the first time ever GameDay had decided to visit the city. And the game, which also featured a great story in undefeated SMU, did not disappoint. Two explosive offenses dogged it out for four quarters, and after falling down three touchdowns halfway through the 4th, SMU nearly mounted an impressive comeback. Overall, there was 102 points scored and 1,067 total yards, the perfect contest for fans who love offense. It also ended up having a real impact; the win helped cement Memphis as the AAC West frontrunner, a position that helped them end up eventually sealing the Group of Five's lone New Year's Six bid.

Week 11

There wasn't a more consequential week in college football this year than Week 11, which for the first time ever featured two matchups of 8-0 teams. LSU-Alabama continued their long-standing rivalry, but it was notably different this time around. A game that has long been decided by defense, there was 87 points scored, with LSU finding a way to come out on top. The win made it clear LSU was a clear National Title favorite, while also further aiding Burrow's Heisman chances. Penn State-Minnesota was another exciting game with important implications. The Gophers ended a PSU comeback attempt with an interception from Jordan Howden, sealing the biggest win for the program in decades. Seeing the fans storm the field at TCF Bank Stadium was a really awesome moment, particularly for a school that has mired in mediocrity for so long. Even less important games ended up being critical, as Wisconsin beat Iowa to keep their Big Ten West hopes alive, and Baylor beat TCU to remain undefeated.

Jalen Hurts Leads the Oklahoma Comeback

It's hard to root against Jalen Hurts. The former Alabama QB was the model teammate when he lost his job to Tua Tagovailoa, supporting the younger signal-caller and not transferring right away when it became clear he wasn't going to start. His eventual move to Lincoln Riley and Oklahoma seemed like a match made in heaven, and his impressive 2019 confirmed it. Although Hurts didn't take home the Heisman Trophy, his comeback performance against the undefeated Baylor Bears was a Heisman-level showing. The Sooners fell down 31-3 quickly to Baylor, but they showed poise and resiliency in the comeback. Hurts ended up with nearly 300 yards passing and 114 on the ground, despite going up against a physical Baylor defensive front, that includes Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year James Lynch. Scoring 31 straight points against the best defense in the league was quite the exclamation point on Hurts' legendary collegiate career. Being able to take the Bears down in the rematch a few weeks later to earn a Playoff berth helped Hurts become the first-ever QB to lead two different teams to the four-team field.

Ohio State-Clemson

For a system that is supposed to pair the four best teams in the nation against one another, the College Football Playoff has suffered from competition issues, with a bunch of blowouts and boring games. However, you got the feeling once they were matched up, that a meeting with Clemson and Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl was going to be different. These two teams were 13-0 and two of the most talented teams in the country, but only one could move on. The Buckeyes would took a commanding lead early, but Clemson and Trevor Lawrence displayed grit down the stretch to take home the victory. There were a number of controversial calls in the game that certainly played a role, but in these type of massive games with two evenly matched teams, there is going to be controversy. Ohio State in particular felt that the targeting call in the first half and a confusing Justyn-Ross fumble that was ruled incomplete screwed them over, but they did also miss opportunities by themselves. Settling for field goals three times in the red zone and the decisive Justin Fields interception can't be blamed on the officials, and Clemson moves on. This game really had all you want for a Playoff semifinal: two great programs, teams, coaches, and an unbelievable atmosphere. Hopefully we'll see more of this in the future and not more blowouts (2015 Michigan State-Alabama!).

Sunday, January 12, 2020

College Football Playoff National Championship Prediction 2020

Trevor Lawrence, Clemson
A thrilling 2019-2020 season concludes this Monday with the biggest game of them all: the 2020 National Championship. The two best teams in the country will battle it out for 60 minutes in New Orleans, as LSU and Joe Burrow look to cap off their memorable 2019 with a final victory, while Clemson hopes to claim their third National Title in four seasons. The skill of these two offenses, the personalities on the sideline, and the storylines all colliding here should make for a picture-perfect National Championship. But, only one team can come out on top as the 2019-20 National Champion.

Any talk of LSU this season begins with Joe Burrow, who has put together the best single-season quarterback performance since Cam Newton in 2010. He has been purely dominant, without a single down game you can point to, all while collecting 5,208 yards and 55 touchdowns through the air. With the Heisman Trophy secure, you get the feeling there is one thing on Burrow's mind, and it isn't the NFL: a National Title. It just so happens that Burrow is also blessed with a fantastic receivers corps, headlined by veteran Justin Jefferson and sophomores Ja'Marr Chase & Terrace Marshall. And, you can't forget about tight end Thaddeus Moss, the son of Randy, and an excellent vertical passing threat. That collection of wide outs has obliterated opposing secondaries all season, including embarrassing Oklahoma in the semifinal. Then, you look at running back, where Clyde Edwards-Helaire remains vastly underrated, and Chris Curry looked like he could also fill in as the feature guy with Edwards-Helaire not 100 percent in the Peach Bowl. Edwards-Helaire should be as close to 100 percent as possible, and one only has to watch the Alabama win to recognize his importance in this offense. When you're finished gushing over the talent at the skill positions, LSU also hits with their offensive line, which was the nation's best in 2019. Not only did it keep Burrow upright all year, it opened up massive running lanes for this backfield. With all that on offense, it's no wonder the Tigers averaged nearly 49 points per game, and dropped 63 on Oklahoma. This is an offense with essentially no weaknesses to point to, and it's hard to imagine them not having another incredibly productive day, even going up against Brent Venables and this Clemson D.

Clemson might not have Joe Burrow, but they have a pretty special quarterback themselves in Trevor Lawrence. Lawrence became a household name with his dominant play in the Playoff last winter, but his struggles in 2019's first month seemed to really kill the buzz that was surrounding him. Less attention certainly seemed to benefit the true sophomore, as he has played as well as anybody not named Burrow over the season's final few months. He has thrown 22 touchdowns without an interception, his last one coming against Louisville in mid-October. Lawrence has also shown impressive toughness, which was on full display in that gutsy Ohio State win. He was nailed all night by the Buckeyes, which only seemed to make him stronger. He's going to be overshadowed by Burrow most of the night, but if Clemson does pull it out, Lawrence is certainly going to be a major reason why. Much like LSU, Clemson also has an abundance of weapons to further aid their star quarterback, including receivers Tee Higgins, Justyn Ross and Amari Rodgers, as well as explosive running back Travis Etienne. That trio of wide outs is really impressive, and can match up with LSU's group really well. They're also an incredibly tough group of players; both Ross and Higgins took a beating in the Fiesta Bowl, while Rodgers is less than a year removed from a torn ACL suffered in the spring of 2019. Etienne is actually going to end up being a pretty important X-factor. Getting the ground game rolling is always of top priority for the Tigers, and he can break open a game every time he touches the ball. With all the eyes on the quarterbacks, don't overlook the importance of these running backs in this game.

With all that offensive talent on both teams, one would expect a lot of offensive fireworks and a lot of points here. Yet, I'm actually very excited to see what these two defenses look like, and the chess match between the two defensive coordinators, Venables for Clemson and Dave Aranda for LSU. On one hand, LSU's defensive numbers aren't overwhelming; their 21.2 points allowed per game are good not great, and they don't exactly live in opponent's backfields, as their 33 sacks this season are middle-of-the-pack. But, you have to consider that they went into 2019 without their unquestioned leader, linebacker Devin White who is now playing on Sundays, and the fact that with how much this offense scores, the defense is on the field a lot. When considering those two factors, Aranda has once again done a good job crafting a physical, well-rounded defensive unit. The secondary is the unit that gets the most attention on this LSU defense, and for good reason. Not only do they have Jim Thorpe Award winner Grant Delpit roaming the back-end, they have two of the best cover corners in collegiate football in Derek Stingley Jr. and Kristian Fulton. Stingley in particular is a guy to keep your eyes on; he's only a true freshman and yet he'll match up against opponent's top wide out all night and still shut him down. Up front, the Tigers don't have as many big names, but they can still cause offensive lines issues. Linebacker K'Lavon Chaisson missed nearly all of 2018, but has responded with a 6.5-sack campaign. This is a rock-solid Clemson offensive line, but LSU is still going to hit them in some unique ways, it will be intriguing to see how they handle it.

At this point, Clemson's reloading on defense has become commonplace, but that doesn't change how impressive it is. Once again, the Tigers suffered a mass exodus to the NFL ranks last off-season and how do they respond? Only by putting together the most efficient defense in the entire country and allowing just 10.6 points per game on the year. Losing their entire defensive line has made Venables' job tougher in terms of pressures and blitzes, but a number of Clemson defenders have emerged to fill the leadership and production voids. The Tigers are especially strong in the back-end, where they're loaded with experience and future NFL talent. A.J. Terrell and converted wide out Derion Kendrick are a potent 1-2 punch at corner, while veterans Tanner Muse and K'Von Wallace can really do it all. Then, there is Clemson's linebacker group, which technically includes the ultra-versatile Isaiah Simmons, and was massive in their upset of Ohio State. The ultimate question: is this the group that can finally slow down Joe Burrow? I will say, this is going to be the toughest secondary Burrow has seen this season, and outside of maybe Auburn, by far and away the toughest defense. It's also a group that captures the "bend not break" mentality. Against Ohio State, their ability to force three field goals and only one score in the 16-0 lead was a major reason why the Tigers were eventually able to come back and secure the win.

So, after looking at both of these offenses and defenses, where does that leave us? Well, one thing is definitely certain: it's going to be a competitive game. Neither team has a distinct advantage on either side of the ball, and while each do have some weaknesses, they aren't significant enough to base an entire prediction off of. In matchups like these, that are truly "coin flip" games, I have a general philosophy: go with the team with more experience, and the team that has been there before. Simply put, Clemson has been on this type of stage every season since 2015, and proven they can beat the biggest and best. This team and staff have earned my respect, and while I don't think they're going to be able to completely slow down Burrow, I think they can do just enough to bring a fourth National Title to Clemson, South Carolina.

The Pick: Clemson, 41 LSU, 35

The National Championship... By the Numbers

0 - Number of career losses for Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence. He is a perfect 25-0 as starter for the Tigers, and Clemson has won 29 straight games.

202 - It's been a long time since Trevor Lawrence has thrown an interception. Not only does he have 22 touchdowns in that span, he has thrown it 202 times without throwing it to the opponent.

25 - LSU has not trailed an opponent in 25 quarters. The last time they trailed was against Auburn in late October, when they were down 13-10 in the third quarter.

8-2 - In their last ten games as an underdog, Clemson is 8-2 overall. They're also 12-2 against the spread in their last 14 neutral site games.

94.2 - The combined points per game totals of these two offenses. LSU averages 48.9 per game, while Clemson is just behind at 45.3.

228 - This game could well be decided by who wins the second quarter. Both play their best in the closing seconds of the first half, as LSU put up 228 points in the second period this season.

Saturday, January 4, 2020

NFL Mock Draft 2020: Edition 1 (Early Edition)

Jerry Jeudy, No. 4 to New York Giants
1. Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Burrow, QB, LSU
A brutal 2019 in Cincinnati may soon be forgotten if the Bengals can get their hands on the top prize of the 2020 NFL Draft: Joe Burrow. That's something that might not have been said a few months ago, but Burrow has quickly shot up draft boards in response to his incredible Heisman season. Not only is he a great college player, he has a lot of the tools NFL scouts love, from his poise and toughness to his accuracy in tight windows. He is the much-needed solution to the frustrating Andy Dalton era in Cincy.
2. Washington Redskins
Chase Young, DE, Ohio State
No disrespect to Joe Burrow, who I think will be a solid pro, but Chase Young is far and away the best player in the 2020 Draft. He already has the look of a seasoned veteran in the league, playing like a man amongst boys at Ohio State in 2019. If the 16.5 sacks weren't impressive enough, consider that he did it in just 12 games, while facing double and triple teams all season. He has all the tools you look for in a franchise pass rusher, and the Redskins need a new face to their defense.
3. Detroit Lions
Derrick Brown, DL, Auburn
Detroit is going to be a fascinating team to watch over the off-season. They still have pieces to compete for the postseason, but they have to do serious patchwork across the entire defense. A defensive back like Jeffrey Okudah could make sense, but instead the Lions choose the best player available: Derrick Brown. Brown just has the look of a NFL defensive linemen, and his impact goes far behind his numbers. He strengthens a porous Detroit interior D-Line, which is imperative for a Matt Patricia-led team.
4. New York Giants
Jerry Jeudy, WR, Alabama
New York GM Dave Gettleman will be retained for the 2020 season, but he has a long list of things he must address if the Giants are to compete in the near future. Their defense is a mess, but even more concerning is the lack of offensive weapons for young signal-caller Daniel Jones. Odell Beckham is long gone, and the leading receiver for the Giants in '19 was rookie Darius Slayton. The Giants change that by adding Jerry Jeudy, one of the best wide out prospects in some time. He has the speed, explosiveness and hands that any NFL scout covets.
5. Miami Dolphins
Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon
Even with all their needs on both sides of the ball, you still get the feeling Miami is going to go quarterback with their first selection. Tua Tagovailoa would certainly make sense, but you get the feeling he is leaning towards returning to Alabama and if not, his injury history is concerning. Instead, the Dolphins turn to Justin Herbert, who capped off a stellar collegiate career by beating Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl.
6. Los Angeles Chargers
Andrew Thomas, OT, Georgia
Phillip Rivers' time with the Chargers may be over, but there is no obvious quarterback solution here, with Tua's future so up in the air. So instead, they work on improving an offensive line that has been a weak point for some time. Andrew Thomas was a monster during his time with Georgia, and he has the ability to start right away.
7. Carolina Panthers
Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama
Even with such an uncertain future, there is no way I could leave Tua Tagovailoa out of the Top 10. Despite the aforementioned injury history, he has remarkable arm talent and is a fearless competitor. Carolina is almost certainly done with Cam Newton and Kyle Allen is not the future. They could be willing to take a chance on a high-risk, high-reward type prospect at this spot.
8. Arizona Cardinals
CeeDee Lamb, WR, Oklahoma
Kyler Murray had some notable ups-and-downs in his first year in the league, but he still looks like the franchise guy for Arizona going forward. What better way to make him more comfortable than picking his top guy from Oklahoma, CeeDee Lamb? Lamb is well-known for his spectacular catches, and he has good size for an NFL wide out. He could be the heir apparent to Larry Fitzgerald, whose Hall of Fame career has to be coming to a close.
9. Jacksonville Jaguars
Jeffrey Okudah, CB, Ohio State
The Jaguars don't have a major need at cornerback right now, but they would love to add another defensive playmaker, and Jeffrey Okudah would be too good to pass up if he was available here. The Ohio State product should've been the Jim Thorpe Award winner this season, and his ball skills and athleticism are at a pro level.
10. Cleveland Browns
Austin Jackson, OT, USC
It was an infuriating season for Cleveland, who had serious postseason expectations before a 6-10 2019 campaign. That doesn't mean they have to blow things up entirely, as the offense is still stocked to the brim with offensive playmakers. What really needs improvement is the O-Line, and Austin Jackson is the type of prospect who could rise up boards throughout the Draft process.
11. New York Jets
Jedrick Wills, OT, Alabama
The Jets will head into 2020 with Sam Darnold still being their franchise quarterback, but the young signal-caller needs help. Either a receiver or offensive linemen makes sense, and with Jeudy and Lamb both off the board, New York turns to Alabama's Jedrick Wills. Wills is a superb run blocker who could finally get Le'Veon Bell going after a down 2019.
12. Las Vegas Raiders
Henry Ruggs III, WR, Alabama
The Raiders were hoping Antonio Brown was going to become their go-to guy in the passing game, but obviously, that didn't go as planned. Instead, they turn to this year's Draft, where Henry Ruggs III seems like a fine consolation. An explosive perimeter weapon, Ruggs is the type of prospect that brings plenty of excitement, which should help fill the seats in their debut season in Las Vegas.
13. Indianapolis Colts
Yetur Gross-Matos, DE, Penn State
In an AFC that includes Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, Lamar Jackson and Tom Brady, adding a dynamic pass rusher is never a bad idea. Gross-Matos was a force off the edge during his time with Penn State, and he has the physique to play multiple positions at the next level.
14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tristian Wirfs, OT, Iowa
Tampa is one of those teams that could go any number of directions with their first-round selection, including QB, running back, O-Line and defensive back. You get the sense they'll stick with Jameis Winston at quarterback for one more season, so helping him out with some improved line play makes sense. Tristian Wirfs is a first-round talent, and while worth a pick at 14.
15. Denver Broncos
Laviska Shenault, WR, Colorado
Denver continues to improve their receiver position, which now boasts Courtland Sutton, DaeSean Hamilton and tight end Noah Fant. They could become even more potent by adding Laviska Shenault, who just happens to come from nearby Colorado. Shenault is a truly dynamic weapon, who could have been even better in the college ranks if he didn't struggle through some injuries.
16. Atlanta Falcons
Trevon Diggs, CB, Alabama
There were a lot of problems with Atlanta during their slow start to 2019, chief among them a lack of a true shutdown cornerback. Trevon Diggs is another 'Bama product sure to get first-round love, and he has the bloodline to succeed in the NFL, as the younger brother of Minnesota star Stefon Diggs.
17. Dallas Cowboys
Grant Delpit, S, LSU
Safety has been a pretty notable concern for Dallas for a few years, and despite making a run at Earl Thomas, they haven't been able to figure it out. It would make a lot of sense to select Grant Delpit in the middle of the first, and he could be a steal. Don't let the injury-plagued 2019 fool you, this is one of the best defensive prospects available.
18. Miami Dolphins
A.J. Epenesa, DE, Iowa
Already getting their QB of the future in Justin Herbert, the Dolphins look to add a franchise pass rusher. A.J. Epenesa was an absolute sack machine during his time in Iowa City, and is incredibly quick for his size. He could certainly be a Top 10 pick, so if he lasts until 18, Miami doesn't waste the opportunity.
19. Las Vegas Raiders
Kenneth Murray, LB, Oklahoma
Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock continue to reconstruct their defense in another selection coming from the Khalil Mack deal. Kenneth Murray is a rangy linebacker that meant so much to this Oklahoma defense, which so happened to have a much improved 2019. He's a plug and play prospect, who shouldn't fall out of the first round.
20. Jacksonville Jaguars
Isaiah Simmons, LB/S, Clemson
Already getting quite a steal with Jeffrey Okudah at pick nine, Jacksonville would drool at the opportunity to add another defensive stud in Isaiah Simmons. An ultra-versatile defender who plays linebacker but looks more like a safety, Simmons was instrumental in Clemson's terrific defense in 2019.
21. Philadelphia Eagles
Tee Higgins, WR, Clemson
Snagging a new No. 1 wide out seems like the most likely move for Philadelphia in the first round. Alshon Jeffery is incredibly injury-prone, Nelson Agholor seems to be regressing, and DeSean Jackson is clearly not a long term solution. They'd be just fine with Tee Higgins if he was available, the security blanket for Trevor Lawrence these last two years.
22. Tennessee Titans
Curtis Weaver, DE/LB, Boise State
Another team that could really go a few directions here, Tennessee had a very quiet successful campaign. They do still need to upgrade the pass rush, and Curtis Weaver is vastly underrated. He lived in opponent's backfields while at Boise State, concluding 2019 with 13.5 sacks.
23. Buffalo Bills
DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama
The Bills and Josh Allen have been a great story in 2019, but the long-term prospects for the receiver position in Buffalo aren't overly encouraging. There are top two guys are John Brown and Cole Beasley, which should tell you all you need to know. DeVonta Smith had a real breakout season with the Crimson Tide, and is a gem in the late first round that can stretch the field vertically.
24. Minnesota Vikings
C.J. Henderson, CB, Florida
Once among the top corners in the NFL, Xavier Rhodes has faded fast in Minnesota, while Trae Waynes will be a free agent this off-season. Add to that Mike Zimmer's affinity for cornerbacks, and it makes too much sense for the Vikings to roll with C.J. Henderson at this spot. Henderson still has some holes in his game, notably run support, but you can see the potential every time he steps on the field.
25. Miami Dolphins
J.K. Dobbins, RB, Ohio State
Miami continues to build out their roster with their third selection on the first round (coming from Houston). They obviously have a bunch of needs, but consider this: Ryan Fitzpatrick, a journeyman QB, was their leading rusher in 2019. They need to find a true every down running back, and J.K. Dobbins is the real deal. He's well worth the value at pick No. 25.
26. Seattle Seahawks
Tyler Biadasz, OG, Wisconsin
It isn't merely injuries at running back that have limited Seattle's ability to run the ball in 2019, but the lack of a strong interior offensive line. I love the Tyler Biadasz selection in the late first; he's a proven run blocker that is the type of prospect who will have a lengthy NFL career.
27. New England Patriots
Javon Kinlaw, DT, South Carolina
Somehow, New England always seems to get incredibly value in the late first round, and that doesn't change here. Javon Kinlaw is a Top 15-caliber prospect, but interior D-Linemen tend to drop come Draft Day. The Patriots don't rest on the chance to strengthen the line, which has been inconsistent throughout the fall and winter.
28. Green Bay Packers
Jalen Reagor, WR, TCU
Behind Davante Adams, Green Bay really lacks a go-to weapon in the passing game, and that has to change as Aaron Rodgers continues to age. Jalen Reagor didn't get much national attention while playing at TCU, but he was a 1,000-yard receiver in 2018. He's the type of speedster on the outside that could really open up this offense even more.
29. Kansas City Chiefs
Dylan Moses, LB, Alabama
Linebacker is a notable need for Kansas City no matter what happens this postseason, but it will be interesting to see how they address the position. There are a number of free agents hitting the open market that could draw their eye, but a youngster in the late first is too good to pass up. Dylan Moses has an unclear future; he has first-round talent without question but missed all of 2018 with a torn ACL and has flirted with coming back to Tuscaloosca. If he does stay in the Draft, there is a lot of value going with him in the late first.
30. San Francisco 49ers
Xavier McKinney, S, Alabama
Even with how great their defense has been in 2019, San Francisco could still address a need at free safety with Xavier McKinney. McKinney gets lost behind all the other astounding Crimson Tide talent, but if you watch just one of their games, you'll realize how important he was to this team. He's also the type of prospect GM John Lynch would have a hard time passing up on.
31. New Orleans Saints
Brandon Aiyuk, WR, Arizona State
Would New Orleans really go with a wide receiver when they already have the NFL's best in Michael Thomas? Well, somebody needs to take defense's attention away from Thomas, and as Drew Brees reaches the twilight of his career, he needs as much help as he can get. Brandon Aiyuk from Arizona State concludes a receiver-heavy first round.
32. Baltimore Ravens
Terrell Lewis, DE/LB, Alabama
The ninth Crimson Tide player to go in this mock, Terrell Lewis reminds me of a former Raven great that just so happens to have the same first name: Terrell Suggs. Lewis is the type of a stand-up defensive end, blitzing outside linebacker that can do it all in the NFL, and Baltimore would love another edge rusher.