Monday, June 28, 2021

College Football Preview 2021: 19. Indiana Hoosiers

Michael Penix Jr., Indiana

19. Indiana Hoosiers

The 2020 season was no fluke; the Hoosiers have talent, and are coached well enough to be a Big Ten Title threat

2020 Review
Indiana opened up their 2020 campaign with a controversial, last-second win over Penn State and then reeled off four straight victories. They went toe-to-toe with Ohio State for the entire sixty minutes but came up just short of the Buckeyes, 42-35. The Hoosiers still recovered, winning their next two Big Ten games, but quarterback Michael Penix Jr. was lost for the year with an ACL tear. Backup Jack Tuttle came on in relief and found a way to lead them past Wisconsin, but underwhelmed in the Outback Bowl loss to Ole Miss. With a final record of 6-2 overall and 6-1 in the league, Indiana put together one of their best seasons in program history, even in a weird, pandemic-shortened season.

2021 Outlook
Offense: When healthy, Penix has proven to be one of the best quarterbacks in the Big Ten. He finished the 2020 season with 1,645 yards and 14 touchdowns in just five full games and showed he wasn't afraid of the moment, playing his best football in some of the season's biggest games. The issue for Penix is that he just hasn't been able to stay healthy. Prior to the ACL tear late last year, he was lost for the season in 2019 due to a shoulder injury. There isn't any denying how skilled of a quarterback he is, but he has to stay healthy if Indiana has any legitimate chance at Big Ten East contention. 

Former Utah transfer Jack Tuttle was solid in relief, tossing for 362 yards in about three games. He showed a good understanding of the offense and didn't make many mistakes, but he's not the type of dynamic playmaker Penix is. Tuttle is a pure pocket passer through and through, while Penix and his ability to create with his legs adds a whole different dimension to this offense.

No matter what happens with Penix and the QB situation, Indiana has to get better production from the ground game. Stevie Scott III put up good numbers during his time in Bloomington, but the Hoosiers have been near the bottom of the conference in rush offense the last few years. Scott is now gone, leaving feature back duties to either sophomores Samspson James or James Baldwin Jr., or newcomer Stephen Carr. Baldwin's the more explosive of the two, but James should still see plenty of opportunities. Carr is a really interesting name to watch, as he was a huge recruit for USC in the day and had some moments with the Trojans, but never lived up to his billing coming out of high school. He's probably more naturally talented than either James or Baldwin, but can he adjust to the new offense?

If you're looking for a dark horse Biletnikoff Award contender, look no further than Ty Fryfogle. Even though the now-departed Whop Philyor finished with more receptions, it was Fryfogle who was the real weapon in the passing attack, finishing with 721 yards and seven touchdowns. You can only imagine what this guy could do in a full season as the true No. 1 option, particularly if Penix is actually able to stay 100 percent healthy. Fryfogle's another guy that doesn't shy away from the moment, as he tallied over 200 yards against an Ohio State secondary full of future NFL defenders.

The Hoosiers do still need another wide out or two to step up to take some attention away from Fryfogle. Sophomore Miles Marshall is the leading candidate, a talented youngster who totaled 290 yards last fall, despite being the team's fourth option. Fellow sophomore Jacolby Hewitt is another name to watch, even though he's less proven than Marshall. Add in Florida State transfer D.J. Matthews, who played three seasons in Tallahassee and had his moments, but was never able to fulfill his vast potential. Finally, tight end Peyton Hendershot is also back in town after finishing third on the team in receptions last year. Hendershot is a reliable weapon and plays more like a receiver than a true tight end, but you'd like to see him make more of an impact downfield, as he averaged just 6.6 yards per reception.

Without question, the X-factor for the offense and really the whole team, is Michael Penix. If he's able to stay healthy for an entire year this is a group that has Top 25 potential offensively and a team overall that can seriously compete for a Big Ten Title. If not, Tuttle is serviceable enough to keep them afloat, but the difference between the two signal-callers is significant.

Defense: Tom Allen has long been known as a defense-first guy and his Hoosier teams have generally reflected that. Last year's group was Top 20 nationally in scoring defense and about middle-of-the-pack in the Big Ten in terms of yardage. There may be a slight rebuild on this side of the ball, only because coordinator Kane Wommack took the South Alabama head coaching job.

Expect new coordinator, Charlton Warren, to still utilize the complex, 4-2-5 look that Allen prefers. It's a defense that might not be the most talented, but causes loads of mistakes with unique looks and constant motion. Indiana ranked first in the league in sacks a year ago and were third in turnover margin, tenth nationally.

The pass rush should again be strong, with a solid amount of experience back on the defensive line. Veterans James Head Jr. and Michael Ziemba are likely the starting ends. Both won't put up crazy sack numbers, but they've played a bunch of Big Ten football and know how to play in this league. Don't be surprised if one of them is either pushed or sees their starting job taken by Ole Miss transfer Ryder Anderson. The grad transfer is immediately eligible after starting eight of the Rebels' 10 games a season ago, totaling 2.5 sacks and 43 tackles. He's more athletic than either Head Jr. or Ziemba, adding a different element to this pass rush. Up the middle, defensive tackle Demarcus Elliott is a crucial returnee, playing a big role in this IU rush defense.

Both linebackers are back in Bloomington for 2021, with the name to watch being junior Micah McFadden. McFadden does it all for this Hoosier defense; he's a physical, hard-hitting rush defense specialist, but he also gets after opposing quarterbacks. Wommack used McFadden in a bunch of creative ways last fall and I suspect Warren will do much the same. Junior Cam Jones is often overshadowed by what McFadden can do, but he played a key role for this team in 2020 as well. He's a skilled pass rusher, with three sacks last fall, who is also asked to do a lot in pass coverage. Fellow junior James Miller offers depth, coming off a campaign in which he posted 24 total tackles. He'll likely backup McFadden to begin the year, but don't be surprised if his snaps increase by the conclusion of the fall.

The pass defense leaned too often on forcing turnovers in 2020 and while it generally worked out, they know they can't do that again in '21. This unit should still be a strength, with loads of experience back in the fold, but losing safety Jamar Johnson early to the NFL really hurts. The Hoosiers have an excellent trio of corners that may be among the best in the entire nation: Tiawan Mullen, Reese Taylor, and Jaylin Williams. Mullen is the top option as a versatile, shutdown defender but Williams is the real playmaker, tying for the team lead with four interceptions a year ago. All three can play man-to-man coverage and free up the rest of the defense to get after opposing quarterbacks. That type of proven experience and leadership is quite a luxury for Warren as he steps into the new role.

Strong safety Devon Matthews is a quality defender who loves to play downhill. He can be an asset in pass defense as well, totaling five pass deflections in 2020. The question is at free safety, the position that Johnson played so tremendously during his time in Indiana. Senior Raheem Layne didn't play a snap in 2020 due to injury, but he moved from his old cornerback spot to safety during the spring and should be a favorite to start. Layne was the former Indiana Defensive Newcomer of the Year all the way back in 2017 and has put together a superb IU career, but we will see how quickly he acclimates to his new position. 

Losing Wommack and Johnson stings, but don't expect much of a drop-off on this side of the ball. The front seven is still good enough to keep the Hoosiers near the top of the conference in sack numbers and the secondary may actually be better, depending on if Layne can stay healthy. No matter what happens with the offense, this defense is a group that will keep this team in every game.

Special Teams: Sophomore Charles Campbell was a revelation for Indiana at kicker last year, missing only one field goal in 11 attempts. Punter is a little bit more of a concern, with the Hoosiers likely turning to a newcomer at the position. The return game has plenty of pieces to make things happen and the additions of Matthews from FSU and a healthy Layne, the 2019 Special Teams Player of the Year, will be huge.

Bottom Line: "Culture" is a word thrown around constantly in college football without a clear definition but one only has to look at what Allen has done to appreciate Indiana's program culture. They play with an energy and cohesiveness that is really difficult to teach, and play as hard as anybody in the country for the entire sixty minutes. That makes them a tough out for anyone, but it's not often the Hoosiers have a team with this much talent to add onto that. They're loaded with future NFL guys on both sides of the ball, including some of the Big Ten's premier players in Penix, Fryfogle and McFadden. They have legitimate division title aspirations, particularly with Ohio State searching for a new quarterback and Michigan and Penn State recovering from down 2020 campaigns. The two things that could stand in their way? For one, injuries. Not only does Penix absolutely have to stay healthy, but so do complementary pieces, such as Layne. Additionally, the schedule is really tough, as they open on the road with Iowa and get Cincinnati in the non-conference. They can still challenge for double-digit victories, but with so many difficult road trips in store, they would need a truly magical season to play for a Big Ten Championship.

Further Breakdown
Team Projections
Projected Record: 8-4 (6-3 Big Ten)
Offensive MVP: WR Ty Fryfogle
Defensive MVP: LB Micah McFadden
Breakout Player of the Year: WR Miles Marshall
Impact Freshman: DE Cooper Jones

Recruiting Breakdown
Even with their recent renaissance on the gridiron, Indiana has never been a program that is going to recruit at a particularly elite level. They recruit to their system and culture, and in turn once again wind up with a recruiting rank near the bottom of the Big Ten. They did add several wide receivers that could make an immediate impact, namely Jaquez Smith. It's not often a program like Indiana is able to go into the Atlanta area and snag a highly coveted receiver like Smith, so that says a lot about Allen and this staff. Quarterback Donaven McCulley was the second-ranked prospect in the state and could be the future at the position, although some believe he could move positions. Keep an eye on Cooper Jones, another local Indiana kid, who could see some early playing time. At 245 pounds, he will need to bulk up just to play his natural defensive end spot, but could eventually see snaps at tackle.

Five-Year Trend


Friday, June 25, 2021

NBA Mock Draft 2021: Edition 2 (Lottery Edition)

Evan Mobley, USC


 1. Detroit Pistons

Cade Cunningham, G, Oklahoma State

By winning the NBA Draft lottery, the Detroit Pistons also won the Cade Cunningham lottery. It would be shocking for them to go anywhere but the Oklahoma State product, a combo guard who checks just about every box an NBA team could be looking for. Cunningham was the catalyst on a Cowboys team coming off their best season in years.

2. Houston Rockets

Evan Mobley, F/C, USC

Evan Mobley is the ideal big man prospect for the modern NBA, a well-rounded forward/center who offers elite rim protection ability who can also step out and shoot the ball at a high rate. He'll need to bulk up to survive the physical NBA, as he is just 215 pounds, but he offers a perfect starting point for a Houston organization attempting to develop a core post-James Harden.

3. Cleveland Cavaliers

Jalen Green, G/F, G League

Unlike the other likely top selections in this Draft, Jalen Green didn't get the opportunity to show his stuff in the collegiate ranks, instead going right to the G League. Even so, he's almost certainly a lock to go somewhere in the Top 4. Cleveland makes the most sense as a landing spot, considering Jalen Suggs would be an odd fit next to Darius Garland and Collin Sexton on their current roster.

4. Toronto Raptors

Jalen Suggs, PG, Gonzaga

Jalen Suggs had an impressive one-year stint at Gonzaga, capped off with his jaw-dropping buzzer beater to take down UCLA. He would be a major help for just about any team in the lottery but particularly Toronto, a team with a playoff roster who suffered through a frustrating 2020-21. The addition of Suggs could trigger the official end of the Kyle Lowry era, a guy who is clearly nearing the end of his long career.

5. Orlando Magic

Scottie Barnes, G/F, Florida State

There is a clear drop-off here after the Top 4 players in this cycle, which makes Orlando's position at five very intriguing. Don't be surprised if Scottie Barnes is the pick, a prospect who flashed serious two-way potential at Florida State but is still rounding out his game. The shooting mechanics are still a work in progress, but Barnes' raw tools are worthy of Top 5 consideration.

6. Oklahoma City Thunder

Jonathan Kuminga, F, G League

If you're looking for the ultimate wild card in the 2021 NBA Draft, look no further than Jonathan Kuminga. Kuminga reclassified and joined the G League, where he flashed elite athleticism but serious issues shooting the ball. He is just 18 years old and is still growing, but any team drafting him has to understand that he is a project. With a slew of picks over the next several years, OKC has no plans to win now, meaning they could take their time and wait on Kuminga to develop.

7. Golden State Warriors

Keon Johnson, G/F, Tennessee

With Klay Thompson set to return from injury, don't be surprised if this selection becomes trade bait for a Golden State team that wants to contend. However if they do stick firm, a name like Keon Johnson could make a lot of sense. Johnson could play an Andre Iguodala-esque role as an energy defender off the bench who can complement Klay and Steph Curry. Johnson's another guy who needs to work on his shooting touch, but when you're playing next to two of the greatest shooters of all-time, that shouldn't be a problem.

8. Orlando Magic

Davion Mitchell, G, Baylor

Davion Mitchell played a huge role in Baylor's National Title run this past season and he's one of my favorite prospects in this draft. Mitchell offers an explosive scorer on the offensive side, as well as a pesky on-ball defender going the other way. He might not have the ceiling of the younger prospects near the top of most boards, but he's well worth the pick here.

9. Sacramento Kings

Moses Moody, G/F, Arkansas

Another wing who should fall somewhere in the Top 10, Moses Moody goes pro after one productive season at Arkansas. He's a prospect who checks a lot of boxes; he's got good size and a long wingspan, he can defend, and he can shoot the three at a fairly good clip. Sacramento was one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA last season, so Moody fits a need.

10. New Orleans Pelicans

Corey Kispert, F, Gonzaga

New Orleans needs to add shooters to help space the floor for Zion Williamson and others to operate. Enter Corey Kispert, a four-year contributor at Gonzaga who shot over 40% from three in each of the last two seasons. Kispert displayed steady growth throughout his time in Spokane and while he may be older than others in this cycle (22), he's still worthy of a lottery selection.

11. Charlotte Hornets

Jalen Johnson, F, Duke

Although Jalen Johnson's mid-season opt-out created plenty of negative media attention, the former Duke forward should land somewhere in the lottery. He offers serious playmaking potential and good size for a combo forward, although you wonder if he's a little bit of a tweener. Charlotte lacks much scoring punch in the frontcourt, but Johnson could change that.

12. San Antonio Spurs

Franz Wagner, F, Michigan

Franz Wagner struggled down the stretch in Michigan's loss to UCLA in the NCAA Tournament, but he's still a really interesting NBA prospect. He's got the size and versatility to play and defend multiple positions and he's a strong shooter. Wagner seems like the perfect fit for the Spurs, especially for a team that lacks much young talent on the wing.

13. Indiana Pacers

Ziaire Williams, F, Stanford

A former five-star recruit from California powerhouse Sierra Canyon, Ziaire Williams came to college with plenty of hype. He was solid in his one year with Stanford, but didn't dominate either, averaging 10.7 PPG on 37% shooting. Even so, his upside as a long, athletic wing makes him a lottery possibility who would fit nice with the Pacers.

14. Golden State Warriors

Alperen Sengun, F/C, Turkey

Possibly the top international prospect in this class, Alperen Sengun could sneak somewhere in the back-half of the lottery. Sengun is a throwback big with  soft touch around the rim who can also protect the rim. He could theoretically play alongside last year's first-rounder, James Wiseman, if needed but is more of a developmental piece at this point.

15. Washington Wizards

Isaiah Jackson, F/C, Kentucky

Washington is going to have an interesting off-season, as they decide what to do with their 1-2 punch of Russell Westbrook and Bradley Beal. Either way, they could do to upgrade a frontcourt that has lacked adequate rim protection for some time now. Even playing on a Kentucky team that was a massive disappointment, Isaiah Jackson asserted himself as an elite defender with some raw offensive tools.

16. Oklahoma City Thunder

Kai Jones, F/C, Texas

Even though teammate Greg Brown entered the 2020-21 campaign as the most hyped Texas big man, it was Kai Jones who emerged as the best NBA prospect. Jones is a late bloomer, but he's displayed nice touch around the rim, a smooth mid-range jumper, and impressive defensive instincts. He's never going to be a superstar, but is the type of big that can put together a productive, steady ten-year career.

17. Memphis Grizzlies

Tre Mann, G, Florida

How Memphis chooses to upgrade their roster over the summer will be fascinating. Ja Morant is obviously the headliner, and Jaren Jackson and Dillon Brooks are nice complements, but the Grizzlies need more scoring punch. Enter Tre Mann, an explosive scorer who averaged 16.0 PPG and shot over 40% from three-point range. He'll have to play more off-ball than he did in college, but should be able to make the transition.

18. Oklahoma City Thunder

James Bouknight, G/F, UConn

With their third selection of the first round, don't be surprised if Oklahoma City takes a chance on a boom-or-bust prospect. James Bouknight doesn't quite that mold, as he has a fairly high floor, but he does have loads of potential. He's a pure scorer who was the heart and soul of a UConn team that suffered through a wacky 2020-21, with multiple COVID pauses.

19. New York Knicks

Sharife Cooper, PG, Auburn

Derrick Rose and Elfrid Payton handled lead guard duties for New York this year and while they made a surprising postseason run, the Knicks can't trot out those two again. They take a chance on Auburn's Sharife Cooper at this spot, even though his fit with Tom Thiobodeau remains to be seen. Cooper missed a big chunk of the season due to eligibility issues, but displayed elite playmaking ability when he finally arrived.

20. Atlanta Hawks

Cam Thomas, G/F, LSU

Cam Thomas had an impressive one-year run with LSU in 2020-21, averaging 23.0 points per game. He's a dominant isolation scorer who excels at tough jump shots, but may fall a little bit because of his fit in an NBA offense. He's more of a two-guard than anything else, but is slightly undersized (6'4") for the position. Atlanta may choose to take a chance on him here, depending on how they feel about guys like Kevin Huerter or Cam Reddish going forward.

21. New York Knicks

Chris Duarte, G, Oregon

A prospect with "three-and-D" potential, Chris Duarte offers great value somewhere in the middle to late first round. He proved to be awfully efficient during his time with Oregon, averaging 17.1 PPG, while shooting 53% from the field and over 40% from three. Duarte could certainly go higher than this but if he's available, the Knicks would love to add more perimeter shooting.

22. Los Angeles Lakers

Josh Giddey, G, Australia

The next prospect from the "Down Under" set to make it big is Josh Giddey, a smooth, 6'8" point guard who played for the Adelaide 36ers. Giddey is the type of player that LeBron and Anthony Davis would love to play with, an extremely dynamic passer and playmaker who makes his teammates better. Don't expect him to be scoring 30 points a night, but he doesn't need to in order to carve out a nice role in the NBA.

23. Houston Rockets

Usman Garuba, F, Spain

Houston may have already added a big by taking Mobley second overall, but that doesn't mean that Usman Garuba doesn't make sense here. The Spanish forward/center is more of your classic back-to-the-basket big than Mobley, even if he's slightly undersized at 6'8". Garuba is a bulldog on the glass that can be a nice defensive asset as well. He reminds me a lot of a Reggie Evans-type, although he has potential to be more than that.

24. Houston Rockets

Ayo Dosunmu, G, Illinois

With James Harden long gone and a real lack of proven playmakers, Houston goes with Ayo Dosunmu from Illinois in this spot. Dosunmu was a three-year contributor in Champaign who stuffed the stat sheet full, putting up good scoring numbers, assists, and rebounds. He has the necessary tools to keep things going in the NBA, although his perimeter shot could use further refinement.

25. Los Angeles Clippers

Greg Brown, F, Texas

The Clippers are another team that could have a really fascinating off-season, depending on what happens in the Western Conference Finals (they're down 0-2 at the time of publishing). No matter what the front office chooses to do, they could use a fresh developmental piece, such as Greg Brown. The former high-profile recruit has unbelievable bounce and athleticism, but needs to round out his game to be an effective pro. At 19 years of age, he has plenty of time to figure things out, if he lands in the right spot.

26. Denver Nuggets

Jaden Springer, G, Tennessee

Denver's backcourt was hit hard by the injury bug last season, exposing a real lack of depth beyond their headline stars. Expect the Nuggets to address this problem over the off-season, and Tennessee's Jaden Springer falls into their lap nicely here. Although he didn't impress as much as his Vol teammate Keon Johnson, Springer showed nice shooting touch and real energy off the bench.

27. Brooklyn Nets

Jared Butler, G/F, Baylor

A skilled scorer with a genuine feel for the game, Jared Butler makes plenty of sense for a contender in the late first round. Butler is a winner who has the right mindset to fit in nicely on a team like Brooklyn, who obviously has a staggering collection of superstar talent in front of him.

28. Philadelphia 76ers

Josh Christopher, G/F, Arizona State

Josh Christopher is an intriguing prospect who has a wide range of where he might fall in the Draft. He was a consensus five-star prospect who surprised a lot of people by going to Arizona State, where he put up decent numbers on a bad team. He's most natural at two-guard but can even run point guard if needed, where he has displayed solid playmaking potential. His shooting numbers have to get better, as well as his decision-making.

29. Phoenix Suns

Daishen Nix, PG, G League

Devin Booker and Chris Paul have proven to be an elite backcourt duo for Phoenix and even many of their role players have stepped up, such as Cameron Payne. It's going to hard to replicate that going forward, particularly with Paul continuing to age. The Suns add a developmental piece here in Daishen Nix, a one-time UCLA commit who instead took the G League route. Nix is a smooth playmaker and fun to watch, who reminds me a lot of a raw, but more athletic, Steve Nash.

30. Utah Jazz

Roko Prkacin, F, Croatia

Utah has always been a team able to find value going the international route and they could do so again in the late first. Prkacin, who plays for KK Cibona in Croatia, has a nice skillset and can play both forward positions if need be. He's an average shooter right now, but his real strength is his ability to finish through contact at the rim. There's some untapped potential here, and the Jazz could be the right spot to uncover it.

Monday, June 21, 2021

College Football Preview 2021: 20. Arizona State Sun Devils

Jayden Daniels, Arizona State


 20. Arizona State Sun Devils

After a lost 2020 season, expect a big '21 in what will essentially be Herm and staff's third season at the helm

2020 Review
Like so much of the Pac-12, it's hard to take much information from Arizona State's abbreviated 2020 "season". They had a heartbreaking loss to USC to open up the campaign in a game they led nearly the whole way, then didn't take the football field again for nearly a month due to COVID problems. When they did return, they dropped a game to UCLA before finishing strong, demolishing arch-rival Arizona 70-7, then cruising past Oregon State to finish 2-2 overall.

(* Important Note) Days before publishing, rumors surfaced that Arizona State was under investigation for serious recruiting violations stemming from the NCAA's "Dead Period". Due to fact that this investigation is ongoing and its impact unknown, these violations will not be addressed further in this post. 


2021 Outlook
Offense: Arizona State had one of the youngest offenses in the Pac-12 in 2020, as true sophomore quarterback Jayden Daniels was surrounded by a host of freshmen and sophomores at the skill positions. The main exception was wide out Frank Darby, who was done for the season following the opener against USC.

Daniels still managed to put up solid numbers in the four games the Sun Devils played, throwing for 701 yards and five touchdowns, with just one interception. In his time in Tempe, Daniels has displayed not only intriguing running ability (223 yards last fall) but also an extremely electric arm. He's still working on becoming more consistent, but there's not a lot of sophomore quarterbacks with his blend of pure talent and excellent decision-making. 2021 is the year he asserts himself as one of the best quarterbacks in not only the Pac-12, but the entire country.

Arizona State has a nice trio at tailback in junior Rachaad White and redshirt freshmen DeaMonte "Chip" Trayanum and Daniyel Ngata. White led the team in rushing yards last season, hitting 420 yards and five scores despite the short schedule. He proved to be awfully efficient, averaging 10 yards per carry, using his impressive elusive ability to his advantage. White is unlikely to replicate those numbers again, but should be ready to be the feature guy once again. 

Frank Darby never really got going last season and was a sixth-round selection for the Atlanta Falcons. His departure leaves the team without a clear No. 1 receiver, but there are several players looking to step into that role. Redshirt freshman L.V. Bunkley-Shelton led the team with 11 receptions for 100 yards in 2020 and should be targeted early and often this year. Joining him is sophomore Ricky Pearsall and redshirt frosh Johnny Wilson, who both saw a healthy dosage of snaps a season ago. Wilson, a former high-profile recruit who was committed to Oregon for a long time, likely has an NFL future.

The real wild cards at receiver are freshman Elijhah Badger and Utah transfer Bryan Thompson. Badger was ineligible in 2020 due to academic problems, but the coaching staff has been raving about his potential throughout the spring. Whether he's able to take the next step and play a leading role remains to be seen, but the raw tools are in place. Thompson managed 461 yards at Utah in 2019 and displayed real deep threat potential. He has a lower ceiling than most of the other wide outs on this ASU roster but the fact he has proven experience in the Pac-12 is a major plus.

Making life easier for Daniels and this ground game is the fact that four starters are back on the offensive line. The headliners of the group are senior left tackle Kellen Diesch and center Dohnovan West, who plays a pivotal role at the heart of the unit. The only real concern is the left guard spot, where there isn't a clear starter set to take over the job. Sophomore Ralph Frias probably closed spring with a slight edge, but it will be a position to keep an eye on when fall camp opens.

Offensive coordinator Zak Hill never really got a chance to show what he can do in his first year on the job last fall, but the small sample size was promising. It's been a long time since Arizona State had a quarterback with the natural talent of Daniels, and both the skill positions and offensive line are loaded with talent and depth. There will be ample time to sort things out early on as well, as the Sun Devils open with two extremely poor defenses (Southern Utah & UNLV) before a road trip to BYU.

Defense: Former NFL linebacker Antonio Pierce split defensive coordinator roles with former Cincinnati Bengals head coach Marvin Lewis in 2020, but is now the sole DC in '21. In just a short time helping run this defense, Pierce has gained a reputation as an elite motivator and superb defensive mind. He has a chance to build on a very promising defensive season for ASU a year ago.

The Sun Devils don't have very many headliners on the defensive line, but it's a group with a healthy amount of experience and some pass rushing ability. Defensive tackles D.J. Davidson and Jermayne Lole should play a major role in helping lead the rush defense, which was awfully inconsistent in 2020. Off the edge, junior Tyler Johnson was used in a rotational role last fall, but is ready to step in as a full-time starter. He was the team leader with five sacks and has an explosive first step. 

The back-seven in general should have Arizona State fans very excited, with loads of potential All-Pac-12 talent roaming around. The linebacker corps includes a pair of dynamic outside linebackers in Darien Butler and Merlin Robertson. Robetson was Pac-12 Defensive Freshman of the Year in 2018 and has built on it with two productive campaigns, notching 24 tackles in 2020. Butler isn't quite the playmaker that Robertson is, but is also a fourth-year starter who can help this defense in a variety of different ways. The unsung hero of the unit is middle linebacker Kyle Soelle. He doesn't get as much attention as Robertson or Butler, but is a real run stuffer, with 26 tackles a season ago.

In the secondary, the Sun Devils have nearly everybody back. Corners Chase Lucas and Jack Jones are two of the best in the Pac-12, Lucas boasting five pass deflections last year, while Jones only played in the opener against USC. Jones, who had taken an interesting path from originally beginning his career at 'SC to heading to the junior college ranks and then ASU, was suspended last season but took advantage of the COVID year of extra eligibility. At safety, the Sun Devils also feature a pair of senior starters in Evan Fields and another former transfer, DeAndre Pierce. Fields has earned a reputation as one of the harder hitters out West, while Pierce came down south from Boise State and immediately worked his way into the starting job. The amount of veteran experience back here makes it clear that there is no reason why this shouldn't be one of the best secondaries in the league. 

Arizona State's defense was difficult to get a read on during their four-game 2020. Their overall numbers weren't very good in terms of yardage but they ranked tops in the Pac-12 in scoring defense at 23.2 points per game. They personified the "bend-don't-break" defense, playing their best defense in the red zone, and also forcing plenty of turnovers. Herm Edwards and Pierce know that isn't sustainable if this team wants to be a Pac-12 South Title contender. With so much experience back and star plays at nearly every level, it absolutely should be a much better group.

Special Teams: Kicker is a real question mark for Arizona State entering 2021, as Christian Zendejas and Jack Luckhurst split time last season. Zendejas has since transferred, leaving Luckhurst as the favorite, but he had just one field goal attempt in 2020. Perhaps true freshman Eddie Czaplicki, who comes all the way from North Carolina, could give him a run for his money. The good news is that punter Michael Turk may be the best in the conference, giving ASU a huge advantage in field position.

Bottom Line: A 17-13 record in two-plus seasons at the helm might not jump off the page at you, but there shouldn't be any denying how good of a job Herm Edwards has done in Tempe. He's elevated ASU's recruiting and brand in a big way and by bringing in a host of former NFL players and assistants, he's changed the way they develop that talent. The next step is getting more consistent results on the field, and the 2021 team should be the one to do that. They're loaded with fun offensive talent throughout the roster, including a budding star at QB in Daniels, and the defense has the pieces in place to be a real strength. It also helps that the Sun Devils have a schedule that sets up nicely for them. They get an easy non-conference slate to ease into the season and get their toughest Pac-12 South competition, USC, at home. Road trips to Seattle and Salt Lake City to face Washington and Utah are perilous, but the Sun Devils should still be favored in as many as 9-10 games. I have them a step below the Trojans in the division but even so, don't be surprised if this ends up being the big "breakthrough" year for Herm and this staff.

Further Breakdown
Team Projections
Projected Record: 9-3 (6-3 Pac-12)
Offensive MVP: QB Jayden Daniels
Defensive MVP: LB Merlin Robertson
Breakout Player of the Year: WR Johnny Wilson
Impact Freshman: DB Tommi Hill

Recruiting Breakdown
ASU brought in a much smaller class than normal, bringing in 13 high school recruits. They finished with a class near the bottom of the league due to the smaller numbers, but this one is still ripe with upside. Corner Isaiah Johnson is a headliner out of California who could see playing time right away, even in the loaded secondary. Tommi Hill and R.J. Regan both join him in the defensive backfield, Regan also hailing from California, while Hill arrives from Florida. Hill comes in as the No. 11 Athlete in the 2021 Class and could theoretically play both sides of the ball, but spent most of his time at corner during the spring. Keep an eye on linebacker Jaydon Williams. Pierce was the primary recruiter on him and managed to keep him away from several other programs. Williams rose up recruiting boards late in the process but managed to catch the eye of numerous Power Five schools.

Five-Year Trend


Thursday, June 17, 2021

College Football Preview 2021: 21. Liberty Flames

Malik Willis, Liberty

 

21. Liberty Flames

With Malik Willis once again at the controls of the offense and a favorable schedule, the Flames win at least 10 games


2020 Outlook
Liberty was one of the great stories of the shortened 2020 season, winning ten games and beating a pair of ACC foes in Syracuse and Virginia Tech. They came agonizingly close to a perfect season but fell just short to a strong NC State team in late November. The Flames still recovered to end the year in a big way, pulling off an upset over previously undefeated Coastal Carolina in the Cure Bowl. They finished ranked No. 17 in the AP Poll, their first ever Top 25 finish as an FBS program. There was some thought that all the success may result in big-name suitors coming to Lynchburg and stealing away head coach Hugh Freeze, but he decided to stay put. With a bunch of pieces back heading into 2021, it may end up being a great decision.

2021 Outlook
Offense: Malik Willis transferred to Liberty prior to the 2019 season from Auburn and after sitting out a year, he exploded onto the scene last fall. He led the team in passing as well as rushing, totaling over 3,000 yards of total offense and 34 touchdowns. He received some late-round NFL Draft attention but instead decided to come back, and is still only technically a junior. Willis would have to put up truly insane numbers for a Liberty QB to gain Heisman consideration, but don't be surprised if he gets some looks.

The star power of Willis often overshadows the rest of this Flames offense, but he's not the only reason they averaged 38 points per game, 16th nationally. Senior tailback Joshua Mack is one of the most underrated anywhere in the nation, finishing with 797 yards and four touchdowns in 2020. Mack will still be the feature guy, but don't be surprised if Liberty also utilizes former Utah transfer T.J. Green. Although primarily a backup during his time in Salt Lake City, Green appeared in 25 games for the Utes.

Despite operating without Antonio Gandy-Golden, who had two consecutive seasons of 1,000 receiving yards, Liberty got quality production from the receiver position last season. Veteran D.J. Stubbs is back as the top returning option, totaling 523 yards on 38 catches a year ago. Expect a healthy Noah Frith and redshirt freshman Demario Douglas to also feature heavily on the perimeter. It's a receiver group without a real headliner, but plenty of quality options.

Tight end is also a deep room for the Flames, with senior Johnny Huntley the likely starter. He went over 200 yards in receiving in 2020 and will look to grow into a more effective red zone target. Also back is junior Jerome Jackson, a good blocker and decent pass-catcher.

Willis alone is dangerous enough, but the fact Liberty returns every single starting offensive linemen makes him even more potent. This is an offensive line with three seniors leading the charge, tackle Tristan Schultz, guard Damian Bounds, and center Thomas Sargeant. Right tackle Cooper McCaw is another guy that has played a ton of snaps in his time in Lynchburg.

Freeze came to Liberty with a dark past, but also a reputation as a superb offensive mind. His work, along with co-offensive coordinators Maurice Harris and Kent Austin, has developed Liberty's offense into one of the most exciting anywhere in college football. Willis alone is worth the price of admission and he has plenty of important pieces back along with him. It wouldn't be shocking to see this group finish as a Top 10 offense, both in scoring and total yardage.

Defense: Although the Liberty defense doesn't have a star like Willis on this side of the ball, it was a group that also put up strong numbers throughout the impressive 2020 campaign. Ten starters now return, including most of a secondary that was ranked 12th nationally in pass defense.

The defensive line is deep and talented, with two consistent pieces off the edge in sophomore TreShaun Clark and junior Durrell Johnson. Johnson, a former JUCO product, led the Flames with eight sacks last fall and may be even better this season. He had never played defensive end prior to 2020, spending most of his time at linebacker and safety, but acclimated extremely well to the position. Don't be surprised to see freshman Stephen Sings V also feature heavily. He played in just four games last season so he was able to essentially play a "free" year, but still managed 2.5 sacks.

The linebacker corps in this 4-2-5 defense loses a pretty big name in Anthony Butler, who finished the year second on the team in tackles. However, weak-side linebacker Aaron Pierre returns, and the staff appears high on the likely replacement for Butler, Rashaad Harding. Harding, yet another former transfer, this time from Louisiana-Monroe totaled over 100 tackles in three seasons for the Warhawks.

After a streaky 2019, Liberty's secondary play was perhaps the most surprising aspect of the entire team. It was one of the best anywhere in the nation last fall and brings back plenty of experience for 2021. The name to watch is "Rover" Javon Scruggs, the top tackler on the team in 2020. Scruggs can do about anything the defense needs and also showed an ability to create the big plays, forcing three fumbles. At cornerback, the Flames return sophomore Chris Megginson and are likely to usher in UTEP transplant Duron Lowe. Megginson played numerous positions last season, but seems most natural at corner. 

The safety position is so loaded that it wouldn't be shocking if there's real competition among returning starters for the starting jobs in '21. Junior Marcus Haskins and senior Cedric Stone are the top returning commodities, but keep an eye on Skyler Thomas. Thomas comes from Washington State and can play multiple positions, ranging from strong safety to outside linebacker.

Defensive coordinator Scott Symons, who also serves as the team's safeties coach, should have a fun time with so much proven talent back. Not only is there experience and playmaking throughout the group, but also a ton of depth, which should be huge late in the year when the Flames gear up for a tough November slate of games.

Special Teams: Kicker Alex Barbir was inconsistent last season, going 13 of 20 on field goals, but showed real clutch abilities by knocking down two game-winning field goals. He has potential to be a difference-maker at the position, but has to show he can be less streaky. Junior Aidan Alves is back at punter and the return game has a real weapon in backup running back Shedro Louis.

Bottom Line: His shady past aside, there's no denying how tremendous of a job Hugh Freeze has done in two seasons with Liberty. He built on a nice 8-5 debut by going 10-1 last season and showed the program has the pieces in place to legitimately go toe-to-toe with Power Five programs. Don't expect the momentum to stop anytime soon, as the talent and experience back for 2021 indicates it will be another highly successful campaign. The Flames could seriously start 9-0 before they hit a November stretch that includes a road trip to Ole Miss and home games against Louisiana-Lafayette and Army. With another 9-10 regular season wins being a real possibility, Liberty is hoping they can play their way into an even better bowl game than the Cure Bowl, which they've now won in consecutive years.

Further Breakdown
Team Projections
Projected Record: 10-2
Offensive MVP: QB Malik Willis
Defensive MVP: S Javon Scruggs
Breakout Player of the Year: WR Noah Frith
Impact Freshman: LB Kaci Seegars

Recruiting Breakdown
Freeze's shady and, frankly illegal, recruiting practices at Ole Miss make it hard to judge his recruiting prowess but there's no denying he's elevated the talent level at Liberty in a big way. The Flames have focused heavily on the transfer market but they've still shown the ability to bring in solid recruiting classes for a program of their status. Edge rusher Khristian Zachary is the big name for the 2021 Class, a high three-star prospect out of Georgia. He probably won't see much playing time with this deep defensive line, but you never know. JUCO product Bryce Pierre out of Chaffey College was a nice find and the staff also brought in a potential long-term placement for Willis at quarterback in 6'6" gunslinger Nate Hampton.

Five-Year Trend
(2016 & 2017 As FCS Program, Member of Big South Conference)




Sunday, June 13, 2021

College Football Preview 2021: 22. Texas Longhorns

Bijan Robinson, Texas

 22. Texas Longhorns

Big 12 Title contention is too much to ask of Sarkisian's debut, but Robinson will keep them in the hunt


2020 Review
With record-setting quarterback Sam Ehlinger back in the fold and Tom Herman entering his fourth year as head man, expectations were unsurprisingly extremely high in Austin entering 2020. After surviving an overtime scare from Texas Tech in late September, the Longhorns dropped a heartbreaker to TCU a week later. They'd lose a chaotic thriller to Oklahoma the next week to drop to .500, and although they recovered enough to go 7-3, it still felt like a disappointment. In mid-December, AD Chris Del Conte announced Herman would be retained for 2021, but then just a month later he was unceremoniously dumped for Alabama OC Steve Sarkisian. "Sark" has previously been head coach at Washington and USC and becomes the third coach UT has hired to take over the program since Mack Brown was forced out in 2013.

2021 Outlook
Offense: Ehlinger wraps up his Longhorn career No. 2 on most major Texas records, including all-time yards and touchdowns, coming in just behind Colt McCoy. Although he never got the Longhorns quite over the top like he infamously promised, he was often the heart and soul of the offense through the Herman years. With his departure, UT must start anew at the quarterback position.

Casey Thompson came on in relief of an injured Ehlinger in the Alamo Bowl and threw for four touchdowns. That performance gives him the upper hand over redshirt freshman Hudson Card, but that showing was in front of a completely different coaching staff. Don't be surprised if Card comes out and takes the starting job; the Austin native has more upside in the long-term than Thompson.

The good news is that no matter what happens with QB, Texas has a budding superstar in sophomore tailback Bijan Robinson. Robinson set a school record by averaging 8.2 yards per carry last fall and likely would've been a 1,000-yard rusher, except for the fact he wasn't used as much as most Longhorn fans would've liked. He finished off the season averaging under nine attempts per game and nearly completely split carries with backup Roschon Johnson. Although Johnson remains, expect Robinson to get even more chances to show his stuff. He has Heisman-level talent, and most of the staff believes he may be the best Texas has had at the position since Ricky Williams was in town.

There's experience at receiver, but it will be interesting to see whether a true "alpha" is able to step up and lead the aerial attack. Junior Joshua Moore led the team in every major receiving category a season ago and has the talent to do it, but will have to build a connection with a fresh signal-caller. I had previously projected a massive breakout for fellow junior Jake Smith in 2020 and although his numbers were decent (23 catches, 294 yards, 3 TD), I would have liked to see more. It didn't help that Smith battled through injuries in the early portion of the 2020 campaign and then broke his foot in the spring. He has since been cleared to go for summer practice and his potential as a deep threat is real. Converted running back Jordan Whittington is another name to watch out wide, as are youngsters Troy Omeire and Xavier Worthy. Omeire was receiving a lot of attention during a superb spring last year but tore his ACL before the season began, while Worthy is one of the gems of the 2021 Class.

Herman and his staff did do a great job improving the offensive line, which has been regularly bad under the prior Charlie Strong administration. Expect that growth to continue, as Sarkisian brought in Kyle Flood to be the offensive coordinator and OL coach, following a great stint in Tuscaloosca. The only notable piece gone is Samuel Cosmi, who opted out of the 2020 season with a few games remaining. Outside of that, four starters are returning, which includes a pair of All-League talents in Denzel Okafor and Christian Jones. 

Even before his run at Alabama, Steve Sarkisian earned a reputation as an elite offensive mind, which he hopes will continue in Austin. He'll call plays for the Longhorns, and there's enough pieces to feel really good about this unit, which was second in the Big 12 in scoring last season, averaging nearly 43 PPG.

Defense: Tom Herman fired coordinator Todd Orlando after a frustrating 2019 season and replaced him with former Rutgers head coach Chris Ash. Ash had an extremely difficult job, rebuilding a defense in the middle of a global pandemic. The results were mixed, as they finished about middle-of-the-pack in the league in total defense, but were the nation's 19th-ranked unit in terms of yardage.

Ash was not retained by Sarkisian who instead made an intriguing hire by bringing in former Washington co-DC Pete Kwiatkowski. Kwiatkowski, who paired with current UW head coach Jimmy Lake, led some really stellar Husky defenses over the years, but UT is a different challenge altogether.

The front seven will really miss their top pass rusher, linebacker Joseph Ossai, who led the team with five sacks. However, the defensive line is still in good shape as junior Keondre Coburn is a proven piece at nose tackle, and sophomore Alfred Collins is ready to become a star. Collins, who was a prized recruit a year ago, was absolutely dominant in the Alamo Bowl and may be the most talented defender on this entire roster.

Linebacker is a concern that will need to be addressed if Texas wants to once again have one of the conference's better rush defenses. In addition to Ossai leaving, Juwan Mitchell also transferred out after leading the team with 62 tackles. Weakside LB DeMarvion Overshown is still around and now becomes the unquestioned leader of the unit after a tremendous 2020 in which he tallied 60 tackles and picked off two passes. It's unclear who will join him in Ossai and Mitchell's departed spots; former LSU transfer Ray Thornton is the favorite to start on the outside "JACK" position, but middle linebacker is a real problem.

There's also reason to be somewhat concerned about the secondary, after the Longhorns finished among the nation's worst pass defense teams in 2020. There's a healthy amount of experience back, particularly at corner, so there's reason to be excited about potential improvement. Seniors D'Shawn Jamison and Josh Thompson are the slated starting corners. while sophomore Kitan Crawford is a name to watch.

Safety is at a really interesting spot, as Texas loses an NFL talent in Caden Sterns but still has some nice pieces. Senior B.J. Foster is a former five-star recruit still looking to fulfill his vast potential. He has played in 31 games during his Longhorn career and started 16, so at least there's experience. The other starting spot is up for grabs between sophomore Jerrin Thompson and "supersenior" Brenden Schooler. Schooler, who began his career at Oregon, played wide out for the Longhorns last year but moved to defensive back over the off-season.

Special Teams: Cameron Dicker is a major return at kicker, as he was twice earned All-Big 12 recognition and hit 15-21 on field goals a season ago. Punter is also in fairly good hands, as senior Ryan Bujcevski looks to recover from an ACL injury that cost him the final few games of last year. 

Bottom Line: There's even more optimism than usual in Austin these days, following what Sarkisian did as Alabama OC in 2020 and how he rounded out his staff. Sarkisian will have an easier job than his predecessor as a nice foundation is in place on both sides of the ball. That doesn't mean that Year One won't be without challenges for the new head coach. How does he handle the distinct cultural and social challenges that hampered Herman throughout the end of his tenure? How does he handle a difficult schedule that not only includes the neutral site game with Oklahoma and road trips to TCU and Iowa State, but also non-conference games against Arkansas and Louisiana-Lafayette? There's enough talent here to push towards a double-digit win debut, but anything more than that is too much to expect, even at a place like Texas.

Further Breakdown
Team Projections
Projected Record: 8-4 (6-3 Big 12)
Offensive MVP: RB Bijan Robinson
Defensive MVP: LB DeMarvion Overshown
Breakout Player of the Year: DT Alfred Collins
Impact Freshman: WR Xavier Worthy

Recruiting Breakdown
Due to the entirely new staff and odd timing of the Sarkisian hire, Texas and their 2021 Class were lower than usual, finishing at No. 15 in the country. That doesn't mean there isn't the usual collection of future NFL talent, assuming it's developed right. Five-star athlete Ja'Tavion Sanders is the big name and can play either side of the football. The staff went out on and landed Xavier Worthy from California and then went into Florida and stole Jaden Alexis, the son of former NFL veteran Rich. They also seemed to place a real emphasis on the secondary, with several highly touted defensive backs, including Dallas product Ishmael Ibraheem.

Five-Year Trend


Tuesday, June 8, 2021

College Football Preview 2021: 23. Washington Huskies

Richard Newton, Washington

 
23. Washington Huskies

Jimmy Lake gets a true "Year One" at the helm, but are the offensive pieces enough to overcome Oregon in the Pac-12 North?

2020 Review
It's hard to take anything away from Washington - or really any Pac-12 team - during the 2020 "season". The Huskies ended up playing just four games and were forced to forfeit their spot in the Pac-12 Championship Game due to COVID issues. UW did go 3-1 in the abbreviated campaign, although every single game was at home due to strange scheduling quirks. There were plenty of positives to take away from the campaign for head coach Jimmy Lake, who now gets his first full off-season leading the program. Lake served as long-time co-defensive coordinator before being handed the head coaching job prior to 2020, after Chris Petersen's shocking retirement. 

2021 Outlook
Offense: The first, most important decision Lake and OC John Donovan will have to make entering 2021 is who their quarterback will be. Although incumbent starter Dylan Morris remains in town, he will almost surely be pushed by highly touted newcomer Sam Huard.

Morris put up solid numbers across the board, throwing for 897 and four touchdowns with a 61% completion percentage. However, he never really jumped out the screen at you and his arm strength appeared rather limited. Meanwhile Huard, who is the son of former NFL QB Damon, is a gunslinger at the position rated as the top pro-style QB in the 2021 Class. Certainly Morris' grasp of the playbook gives them the early edge, but this is a position battle to keep an eye on in fall camp and the early portions of the season.

Running back is another spot with several players vying for the feature role. Senior Sean McGrew led the team in rushing in 2020, totaling 227 yards and four scores. But, don't be surprised if he is pushed by senior Kamari Pleasant or junior Richard Newton, both who saw action last fall. Pleasant is the "big-play" option in the offense and can catch the ball out of the backfield, but his 4.2 YPC in '20 don't inspire a ton of confidence.

It will be interesting to see who is able to take over the reigns as the true, No. 1 receiver. Youngster Puka Nacua was extremely talented and hauled in nine catches for 151 yards in 2020, but he transferred out to BYU. That leaves senior Terrell Bynum as the top returner at receiver, a guy who has waited his turn in Seattle. He's flashed big-play potential, but whether he's able to take it up a notch and be the No. 1 guy remains to be seen. Don't be surprised if a younger guy really steps up and asserts himself as the real go-to guy in this offense. My money would be on dynamic redshirt freshman Jalen McMillan, who has all the tools and played in three games last year. A pair of former transfers, Ja'Lynn Polk and Giles Jackson, may also be ready to make an impact. Polk comes up from Texas Tech, while Jackson played in a similar offense during his time with Michigan.

Although UW may be slightly thin at receiver, at least for the time being, they might have one of the best tight end rooms in the entire country. Veteran Cade Otton flirted with the idea of going pro but instead decided to return, following a season in which he went for 18 receptions, 258 yards and three touchdowns. Otton might not be the most athletic tight end in the country, but he's a crisp route runner who is excellent at working in traffic. Junior Devin Culp operates as a backup and while he hasn't seen a ton of action so far in his Husky career, he has potential to be a real red zone threat.

The strength of this entire offense is unquestionably in the trenches, where all five Washington starting linemen return for the first time since 1960. Those starters run from left to right: Jaxson Kirkland, Ulumoo Ale, Luke Wattenberg, Henry Bainivalu, and Victor Curne. Kirkland and Wattennberg, both redshirt seniors, operate as the headliners and the All-League talents, but Ale and Bainivalu play a huge role opening up running lanes. With all this proven experience back, there's no reason why this shouldn't be one of the best offensive lines anywhere in the nation.

The list of proven stars on this offense are slim, but there's still enough pieces here for this group to be good enough to get Washington where they want to go. The quarterback situation is fascinating, but having such a strong O-Line should put them in a good spot. 

Defense: The real reason for Washington's consistent success near the top of the Pac-12 over the last half-decade has been their defense, and I suspect that to be the case again in 2021. Although defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski moves on to the same role at Texas, new DC Bob Gregory has enough pieces in place to keep this group humming.

It was hard to get a read on Washington's defensive line during the four-game 2020 season. Star Levi Onwuzurike opted out before the season began and the group dealt with injuries and inexperience when they did play. In the Huskies' defense, that often resembled a 2-4-5 under Kwiatkowski, defensive linemen were often invisible, but still played crucial roles. We will see if that changes under Gregory, whose likely to keep most of the systems in place that his predecessor ran. The likely starters are a pair of juniors, Sam Taimani and Tuli Letuligasenoa, although they may be pushed by redshirt sophomore Jacob Bandes. Bandes saw a slight uptick in playing time last fall and the staff has long been excited about his long-term potential on the line.

The strength of the defense should lie in the linebacker corps, which boasts a bonafide star in Zion Tupuola-Fetui and some intriguing young talent. Tupuola-Fetui, known widely as "ZTF" was absolutely dominant in 2020, finishing with seven sacks and making his presence felt in a big way. If you go back and just watch the Utah game, it's amazing the impact "ZTF" made, as he had six tackles, three sacks, and then forced a fumble which he recovered and nearly brought back to the house. Blockers will likely be more keyed in on him in 2021, but he's talented enough to assert himself as a household name on the West Coast.

The starter at outside linebacker opposite of "ZTF" should be senior Ryan Bowman, who isn't quite the playmaker of his OLB counterpart, but still has put together a quality Husky career. Don't be surprised if he's also pushed by a former big-name recruit in redshirt freshman Sav'ell Smalls. The Washington native was a five-star prospect and the top rated player in the state a season ago. He has an NFL future and saw a healthy dose of action as a freshman, playing in all four games. Expect this staff to find ways to get him on the field, even if Bowman still is the primary starter. 

At inside linebacker, both Edefuan Ulofoshio and Jackson Sirmon are back. The pair led the Huskies in tackles a season ago and Ulofoshio had 47 in total. They'll be key in once again guiding what should be a very stout Washington rush defense. 

In the defensive backfield, Elijah Molden is unquestionably a major loss. Molden earned a laundry list of accolades during his three seasons in Seattle and finished off 2020 with 26 tackles and an interception, before going on to be a third-round selection. The good news is that UW continues to recruit and develop the secondary as well as anybody in the Pac-12 and one of the best nationally. Junior Trent McDuffie appears ready to step up and be the top corner on the roster, coming off a year in which he had 14 tackles and played quality football. Junior Kyler Gordon is going to start opposite him, a guy who waited his turn and impressed during his playing time in 2020 as well.

Both safety spots appear to be in a decent spot, with veterans Asa Turner and Dominique Hampton in the fold. Hampton will see a very expanded role after barely seeing the field last fall, but he's been in the system long enough you expect him to acclimate quickly. Nickelback is maybe the most interesting spot on this defense heading into 2021. The Huskies bring in a well-known transfer in Brendan Radley-Hiles, who was one of the nation's top defensive back recruits when he first arrived at Oklahoma. Radley-Hiles displayed potential while in Norman, but also had serious attitude problems that limited his success. If he can figure it out in a new location, this could be one of the top transfers of this cycle.

Washington has become an NFL factory defensively and their numbers continue to be among the most consistently strong in the Pac-12. Even with Molden gone, there's no absence of star power on this defense, nor players with proven experience. The veteran leadership in the secondary should especially be important, even in a division that is reloading at the quarterback position.

Special Teams: In limited action last year, both kicker Peyton Henry and punter Race Porter put up nice numbers. Henry heads into his senior year one of the best in the league, while Porter averaged over 42 yards per punt in '20. It's unclear who will take the lead in the return game, although Sean McGrew saw the bulk of kick returns last fall.

Bottom Line: With Stanford's recent dip and both Oregon and USC being so streaky, Washington has taken up the mantle as the West Coast's most consistent Power Five program. That should continue under Jimmy Lake, who knows this program and what it will take to succeed in the Pacific Northwest. As for Pac-12 Title contention, UW appears just a step behind Oregon in their division and likely USC and Arizona State overall. The offense just doesn't have the punch of some of the others in the league, at least right now. That doesn't mean that either McGrew or Newton develop into a 1,000-yard running back or Huard comes in right away and sets the world on fire, but that's not anything to bet on right now. Even if that doesn't happen, the Huskies can settle in nicely as a double-digit win contender who plays in a good bowl game.

Further Breakdown
Projected Record: 9-3 (7-2 Pac-12)
Offensive MVP: RB Sean McGrew
Defensive MVP: LB Zion Tupuola-Fetui
Breakout Player of the Year: WR Jalen McMillan
Impact Freshman: QB Sam Huard

Recruiting Breakdown
Outside of Huard, who was a big get, Lake's first full class as Washington head man was slightly underwhelming, ranking right in the middle of the pack in the conference. Guard Owen Prentice was a quality pickup to strength the interior offensive line, while fellow four-star Jabez Tinae has a bright future at wide receiver. If you're looking for a dark horse in the class keep an eye on three-star defensive tackle Siaosi Finau, another in-state find. He already resembles the type of D-Linemen that UW has put out in the past and should add even more bulk once he gets in the program.

Five-Year Trend


Friday, June 4, 2021

College Football Preview 2021: 24. LSU Tigers

Derek Stingley Jr., LSU

24. LSU Tigers

Is LSU closer to 2018-2019 under Coach O, or the disastrous 2020 campaign? The real answer lies somewhere in-between

2020 Review
Defending a National Title in the world of college football is always difficult, but it becomes even more so during a pandemic year, with both your coaching staff and roster absolutely gutted. A step-back from LSU was almost a certainty but faltering to a 5-5 record was a wakeup call, even if the season did end on a relatively high note by upsetting SEC East Champion Florida. While the offense was unsurprisingly unable to meet 2019's highs, it was the defense that killed any chance of LSU contention. They allowed nearly 35 points per game and were absolutely shelled even by mediocre offenses, allowing 44 to Mississippi State, 45 to Missouri, and 48 to Auburn. With defensive coordinator Bo Pelini fired, the hope is that the "D" can show the necessary growth needed to once again contend for SEC Titles.

2021 Outlook
Offense: Even though LSU was gutted on the offensive side of the ball following their 2019 National Championship, their offensive numbers were nothing to feel ashamed about. They finished 39th in the nation in scoring offense and averaged a respectable 434 yards per game. They did so even after starting quarterback Myles Brennan was lost early in the season due to an abdominal injury.

Brennan is back for 2021 and will likely enter fall camp as the presumed starter, although he will have his work cut out for him fending off sophomore Max Johnson. Johnson emerged down the stretch as the team's best quarterback option and showed tremendous poise and grit in helping the Tigers upset Florida late in the year. Brennan still has quite an edge in experience and was putting up big numbers prior to his injury, but Johnson has the momentum following spring. The two remain locked in such an intense QB competition that T.J. Finley, who started five games in 2020, opted to transfer. Whoever ends up winning the job will have a new offensive coordinator to work with in Jake Peetz, as well as an abundance of talented options on the perimeter.

The Tigers primarily used a committee approach to their backfield in 2020, following the departure of first-rounder Clyde Edwards-Helaire. None of their backfield trio really stood out, although Tyrion Davis-Price put up the best numbers, with 446 yards and three scores. Davis-Price is sure to feature early and often once again in '21, as will fellow junior John Emery. We'll see if Emery can start showing the potential that made him a former big-name recruit; he's been solid in his collegiate career so far, but more was expected when he arrived in Baton Rouge. With Chris Curry off to Utah, two names to watch are freshmen Armoni Goodwin and Corey Kiner.

Opt-outs killed the LSU receiver group in 2020. Prior to the season, reigning Biletnikoff Award winner Ja'Marr Chase decided to forego the season altogether. Then, a pair of top weapons, Terrace Marshall Jr. and tight end Arik Gilbert, both opted out in late November. That left Kayshon Boutte as the de-facto No. 1 receiver in the offense and the youngster did not disappoint. He finished with 735 yards and five touchdowns and now looks like he will enter 2021 as one of the league's top playmakers. Boutte put up impressive numbers with a bunch of turnover at quarterback; he could be absolutely potent with more stability at that position. Junior Jaray Jenkins and sophomore Koy Moore should be nice complementary pieces. Jenkins stepped forward as LSU's deep threat last fall and at 6'4" with a massive catch radius, he's a real problem for opposing defensive backs.

It will be fascinating to see how much Peetz chooses to utilize the tight end position in '21. Recent Tiger tight ends have resembled receivers more than true tight ends, including guys like Thaddeus Moss and Arik Gilbert. Gilbert is the name every Tiger fan is keeping a close eye on right now. He opted out, announced he was going to transfer to Florida, then changed his mind once again. Gilbert's status for 2021 remains completely unclear but there's some thought he may end up returning to LSU. As the highest rated tight end recruit in the history of 247 Sports, he'd be quite the prize for this offense.

LSU's offensive line won the Joe Moore Award as the nation's best group in 2019, but it was hit hard by attrition heading into last fall. After some understandable early struggles, the group seemed to play much better by the season's conclusion. They have an experienced group of blockers set to return in 2021, as this could challenge as one of the SEC's better O-Lines. Right tackle Austin Deculus has made 34 starts in his LSU career and has All-League talent, while guards Chasen Hines and Ed Ingram are also program staples. A name to watch is redshirt freshman Marcus Dumervil, who is the nephew of former NFL Pro-Bowler Elvis Dumervil. He took a redshirt year in 2020 but has the frame of an NFL veteran.

This offensive group is ripe with potential, no matter what happens under center. The X-factor may indeed be Peetz, who arrives after serving a stint as Carolina Panthers QB Coach. Peetz has spent most of the past decade working in the NFL, but has never called plays before. He doesn't have to be Joe Brady 2.0 for this offense to succeed, but how quickly he acclimates to the role will have a major impact.

Defense: Head coach Ed Orgeron's decision to fire Bo Pelini after just one season of leading the Tiger defense was the least surprising news of the 2020 off-season. Pelini's defenses may have worked a decade ago in a college football vastly different from the one we see now, but it was no match for the athletes and schemes the SEC is putting out.

To replace Pelini, Coach O took a swing at Cincinnati's Marcus Freeman (who eventually ended up at Notre Dame) but instead landed on Daronte Jones. Jones was previously coaching defensive backs with the Minnesota Vikings, and his background with the position should pay dividends immediately.

The LSU defensive line should be a real strength, with just about every big name returning. Senior end Ali Gaye is perhaps the most crucial returnee, following a 2020 in which he managed 9.5 tackles for loss. Gaye got NFL attention but decided to come back, giving them a real difference-maker on the edge. Additionally, veterans Neil Farrell Jr. and Glen Logan will be back, ready to clog up holes in the rushing game. They continue a long tradition of Tiger interior D-Linemen that find ways to impact games, even beyond just rushing the passer.

The defensive end opposite of Gaye in this 4-3 scheme should be an interesting spot to watch. Andre Anthony is a proven veteran who recorded 5.5 sacks last season, but it will be hard for LSU to keep sophomore B.J. Ojulari off the field. Anthony is much more natural at end than Ojulari, who is more of a standup, outside linebacker than anything else. However, with Jones likely to stick with the base 4-3, Ojulari may be asked to stick his hand in the dirt and play end more often. He's unquestionably a breakout candidate, totaling four sacks as a young freshman in 2020.

Prior to last season, LSU got a much-needed linebacker transfer in the form of Jabril Cox, an FCS All-American with North Dakota State. Cox may have been the most important defender on the entire team during his lone year in SEC play, finishing third on the team in tackles, which picking off three passes. This year, LSU once again gets a big-name transfer at the position in former Clemson 'backer Mike Jones Jr. Jones started seven games for Clemson last fall and proved to be a reliable, playmaking defender. Expect him to pair really well with senior Micah Baskerville and Damone Clark, two guys who know their way around SEC football. This is a much more experienced group than the 2020 edition, which only spells good things for Orgeron and the Tiger staff.

There will be a bunch of teams fighting for recognition as the best secondary in the country entering 2021, including numerous SEC teams. LSU may end up beating them all out, stocked with a defensive backfield full of future NFL stars. That includes junior Derek Stingley Jr., who was already established himself as one of the best in college football. As a true freshman, Stingley picked off six passes and earned All-American honors. The hype was so extreme for him entering last fall that anything he would've done short of winning the Heisman would be a disappointment. His numbers were pedestrian, but that's primarily because he missed some time, and teams simply didn't want to throw his way. Fully healthy and wearing the iconic "No. 7" for the Tigers, I expect a big year from Stingley.

Starting at the other corner spot should be Elias Ricks, who had some growing pains early on but really grew into his role. He ended up as the team leader with four interceptions, and also recorded five pass deflections. There were rumors Ricks was considering a transfer over the off-season, but he appears set to be a key contributor heading into 2021. The safety spots are a slightly larger concern for the Tigers entering '21, as JaCoby Stevens is a huge loss. Senior Todd Harris and junior Jay Ward have played plenty of snaps, but must begin to develop consistency. Ward in particular could be pushed by either Major Burns or true freshman Sage Ryan. Both are formerly huge names in the recruiting ranks; Ryan was a five-star in the 2021 class, while Burns was a high four-star who transferred from Georgia.

Special Teams: Even though LSU's struggles during the 2020 season, special teams was generally a bright spot. Kicker Cade York is back after a productive year in which he went 18-21 on field goals and was All-SEC. Punter's a bigger question, with Zach Von Rosenberg moving on, meaning that Louisiana native Peyton Todd may start as a true frosh.

Bottom Line: It's been a long time, perhaps not ever, that we've seen a reigning National Champion struggle as much as LSU did in 2020. It wasn't just the losses, but the dysfunction and drama that seemed to cloud the whole locker room. Some of that might have been expected, but a lot of it had to do with poor hires and decisions from coach Orgeron. The pressure is now on for the lovable "Coach O" to put together a resurgent 2021, and the talent is in place to do so. The defense has the chance to be significantly better than what it was last fall and even if the QB competition, the offense should be serviceable. It may be difficult for the Bayou Bengals to rise back up the SEC West totem pole extremely quick but with all this talent, they can find a niche at an 8-9 squad. At the very least, names like Boutte, Stingley, and possibly even Arik Gilbert can provide enough fireworks to assuage the home folks.

Further Breakdown
Team Projections
Projected Record: 8-4 (4-4 SEC)
Offensive MVP: WR Kayshon Boutte
Defensive MVP: CB Derek Stingley Jr.
Breakout Player of the Year: LB B.J. Ojulari
Impact Freshman: S Sage Ryan

Recruiting Breakdown
Even though there were struggles on the field, Orgeron and his staff responded with a great showing in the recruiting cycle, which should keep fans excited. The grand prize was five-star defensive tackle Maason Smith, an in-state prospect. Smith is good enough to play right away, even with how experienced and deep the Tigers are at D-Tackle. The staff also landed the quarterback of the future in Garrett Nussmeier, the No. 9 pro-style QB in the Class. Nussmeier is the son of Doug Nussmeier, a former college OC and the current Dallas Cowboys QB Coach, which should serve him well picking up a new system. A few other names that could see the field in short order are Sage Ryan, wide out Deion Smith and JUCO product Navonteque Strong. Strong had a bunch of SEC interest and was momentarily committed to Mississippi State before eventually flipping to LSU.

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