Current Picks Record: 69-47
Fernando Mendoza, Indiana
Upset: 5-11
Superdogs: 6-4
Locks: 7-6
Big Ten Championship Game: (#2) Indiana Hoosiers @ (#1) Ohio State Buckeyes (Indianapolis)
Line: Ohio State -4
O/U: 47.5
The lone remaining undefeated teams in FBS ball collide this Saturday at Lucas Oil Stadium. Ohio State has been on a march towards a second National Title, but they get their greatest test of the fall in this game against the Indiana Hoosiers. The Hoosiers are no lovable underdog this year - they've dominated all season long, and look the part of a National Title frontrunner.
Both of these teams boast elite defenses, but it's still the quarterbacks likely to steal the show in this one. Ohio State's Julian Sayin and Indiana's Fernando Mendoza are locked in a battle for the Heisman, with the winner of this game almost sure to become the national favorite. Sayin has looked in complete control in his first season as starter, shredding defenses to the tune of 3,065 yards an 30 touchdowns. It helps that he is throwing to arguably college football's premier receiver corps, headlined by Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate. The pair has been banged up late this fall, but appear to be 100 percent at the right time, and you wonder if they have another gear set to unleash now. Smith was impressive all 2024 long, but it was the postseason were he made a name for himself as college football's best receiver - do we see a similar story this time around? Tight end Max Klare offers an awfully impressive complementary piece, and the passing game shouldn't overshadow how impressive the Buckeye rushing attack has been down the stretch. Freshman Bo Jackson has really emerged as the guy for the Buckeyes, as he nears the 1,000 yard mark in his first season of college ball. He's crossed the century mark in four of Ohio State's last five games, and has to be hungry to show what he can do against one of the nation's top defenses. You do have to wonder how Indiana is going to play this one on this side of the ball. The front seven is absolutely elite, a disciplined and violent group that rarely makes mistakes. Yet, this is the toughest challenge yet for the secondary, who hasn't seen a passing offense of this caliber yet this season. The closest thing they came to was likely Oregon, but the Ducks don't have a Smith or Tate on the outside, at least not yet (Dakorien Moore may get there). The Hoosiers are going to make the Buckeyes fight for everything up front, but you do wonder if a breakdown or two on the back-end could break this game wide open.
We've seen Indiana's offense hit another level this season after an impressive 2024, thanks in large part to the addition of Mendoza. Last year's signal-caller, Kurtis Rourke, was rock-solid, a veteran who put the team in position to win games. But, Mendoza is a legit NFL talent with the arm to burn opposing defenses down the field, something he's done early and often in 2025. He benefits from a deep group of playmakers around him, with Omar Cooper Jr. and Elijah Sarratt the top weapons at receiver, while Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black lead the ground attack. Hemby and Black are a pair of powerful runners that can carve up a defense, often setting up speedster Khobie Martin, or sucking in the defense for Mendoza to do his damage over-the-top. This will be a challenge for Indiana in that this Buckeye defense doesn't make the mistakes of other defenses. The Hoosiers are going to need to play a crisp game of football on this side of the ball, and likely be okay playing field position for a decent chunk of this game. You also have to wonder what things look like up front - the Hoosiers have given Mendoza ample protection all season long, but Ohio State is relentless. There may not be a Chase Young or Bosa brother along the Buckeye D-Line this year, but they'll come at you in waves. Add in Caleb Downs on the back-end, essentially the quarterback of this defense, they are impressive in everything they do.
Indiana may not have the endless collection of blue-chip recruits Ohio State has, but they're every bit as good of a football team as the Buckeyes. I get the feeling this is going to be a tight, low-scoring affair into the second half, until Ohio State is able to turn on the burners and separate. Their passing attack is just an advantage when you reach this point of the season, and I'm not entirely convinced the Hoosiers are ready to slow down the two-headed monster of Smith and Tate over four quarters.
The Pick: Ohio State, 28 Indiana, 21
SEC Championship Game: (#3) Georgia Bulldogs @ (#9) Alabama Crimson Tide (Atlanta)
Line: Georgia -2.5
O/U: 48.5
It's a rematch in the SEC Championship Game. Texas A&M's loss on Black Friday to Texas opened the door for Georgia to gain entry into the conference championship game, where they'll take on the lone team that has been able to beat them this year: the Alabama Crimson Tide. For Alabama, the goal isn't just to win the game, but prove they belong in the 12-team Playoff field - regardless of result.
We became so accustomed to Alabama offenses led by a power-rushing attack, it still feels a bit strange to see this team chuck the ball all over the field. Ty Simpson has recovered from a rough first start of the season to look like one of the best anywhere in the country, and he has an abundance of weapons out wide. Germie Bernard has finally broken through to be the real alpha in this offense, but Ryan Williams and Isaiah Horton can do plenty of damage themselves. In fact, I am wondering if this is the game Williams has a coming out party after a quieter-than-expected sophomore campaign. Remember, his breakout moment last fall came in a thrilling win over Georgia, but they held him mostly in check during their first matchup. The Alabama passing game has been able to disguise, as best as they can, perhaps the worst rushing offense we've seen from the Tide since pre-Nick Saban. To be fair, Jam Miller hasn't been 100 percent for really the entire season, but this offense in general is averaging just 3.7 yards per carry. Miller was the go-to option in the Iron Bowl win and is likely to be again, but we'll also see Daniel Hill and Kevin Riley feature in. Hill is the one, to me, that Georgia has to be keying in on. Nothing about his production jumps out the page at you, but he can make things happen as a pass-catcher, and will bust open long runs. This Bulldog defense is not at the level of past Kirby Smart teams, at really any position. There is certainly talent, but the linebackers are simply good, not elite, while the secondary is prone to the big play. Alabama has an opportunity to move the ball in this game, but can they make the big plays when they matter most?
There's nothing flashy about this Georgia offense this season. No Brock Bowers making plays at tight end, or elite tailback set to go high in the NFL Draft next spring. No, it's not necessarily a very exciting group, but it's hard to argue their effectiveness as the Bulldogs enter this game 11-1. Gunner Stockton has been the ideal Smart quarterback, leading an intelligent, methodical ball control offense. With that being said, there is no denying Stockton has made some huge throws this season, and seems to be the type of quarterback that doesn't shy away from the big stage. You have to believe he has been eager for another opportunity against this Alabama defense, after he was held to one of his most underwhelming performances of the year in the first game, going 13-20 for 130 yards against the Bulldogs. Alongside Stockton, there's the duo of Nate Frazier and Chauncey Bowens in the backfield, while Zachariah Branch is the No. 1 option out wide. Frazier seems to be playing his best football of the season at the right time, and Bowens has settled in nicely as the No. 2 option. The result is a ground game that could really be the fuel for this team down the stretch, in a way they simply weren't last season. On the perimeter, I remain curious if one of the other pass-catchers can emerge, beyond just Branch. Colbie Young has had his moments, but hasn't shown it every week, and the same could be said for Noah Thomas. The tight ends, always a factor in this Georgia offense, have been just average, too. It didn't feel like Alabama's DC Kane Wommack had any respect for this Bulldog passing game last time they played, and it's up to Georgia to prove him wrong. Otherwise, you do get the sense Wommack is going to stack the box and really unleash these linebackers on blitzes, which Georgia won't be able to withstand all night.
This is far from Smart's best team at Georgia but at nearly every juncture this season, they've made the plays to come out victorious. The one time they didn't was in the Alabama, one they had a real shot at winning if they had made the most of the huge moments in the second half. You have to believe Smart and this entire UGA coaching staff will have their team ready for this game in a major way. It's so hard to beat this team once, let alone twice in one season, and I see them earning their revenge in Atlanta.
The Pick: Georgia, 31 Alabama, 28
Other Picks
Big 12 Championship Game: (#11) BYU Cougars @ (#4) Texas Tech Red Raiders (Arlington) -- BYU could not just play spoiler, but earn themselves a spot in the Playoff field with an upset of Texas Tech. Yet, this Red Raider team has been on a tear since their lone loss of the year, which also happened to the game QB Behren Morton missed. They're elite at the lines of scrimmage, and punish Bear Bachmeier in this one.
The Pick: Texas Tech, 38 BYU, 24
ACC Championship Game: Duke Blue Devils @ (#17) Virginia Cavaliers (Charlotte) -- What a strange, strange season for the ACC. Clemson and Florida State have been among the most disappointing teams anywhere in all of the land, and the conference risks missing out on the Playoff entirely with a Duke upset. Yet even with their flaws, a balanced UVA offense overcomes a Duke defense that has been downright bad this fall.
The Pick: Virginia, 42 Duke, 30
American Championship Game: (#24) North Texas Mean Green @ (#20) Tulane Green Wave -- This is essentially a CFB Playoff play-in game, with the winner almost sure to lock in a spot. Both teams have head coaches moving on, but they're still locked into this game on the sidelines. Tulane is the more talented team, and they slow down a high-flying UNT offense.
The Pick: Tulane, 28 North Texas, 24
Mountain West Championship Game: UNLV Rebels @ Boise State Broncos -- Should be a fun late night game between these two. UNLV had no answers for Boise State the last time these two played, with the Broncos scoring 56 points and compiling 558 yards. Boise is going to feast on the ground again in my mind, as UNLV's linebacker corps is not at the level it was in 2024.
The Pick: Boise State, 38 UNLV, 27
Sun Belt Championship Game: Troy Trojans @ (#25) James Madison Dukes -- James Madison has a legitimate chance at a Playoff berth with a win and Virginia loss in the ACC Championship Game, as they would be the fifth highest-rated conference champion. They can't get ahead of themselves against a solid Troy team who would love to play spoiler.
The Pick: James Madison, 24 Troy, 14
Conference USA Championship Game: Kennesaw State Owls @ Jacksonville State Gamecocks -- Kennesaw State may be the best story in college football you haven't heard of this fall, but Jacksonville State can run all day long. Cam Cook, who has amassed 1,581 yards on the season, goes off for a Gamecocks win.
The Pick: Jacksonville State, 27 Kennesaw State, 21
MAC Championship Game: Miami (Ohio) Redhawks @ Western Michigan Broncos (Detroit) -- Pretty amazing these two got to this point after both starting off the season 0-3. Western Michigan may have lost their first meeting, but I like the Broncos to get their vengeance in Detroit.
The Pick: Western Michigan, 23 Miami, 16
No comments:
Post a Comment