Wednesday, June 24, 2020

College Football Coach Rankings 2020: SEC

My "Coach Rankings 2020" aims to compile a definitive list of the best coaches in the sport in each Power Five league. To do this, I tried to weigh the current trajectory of the coach's program, past success at current school and former schools, as well as recruiting impact. Obviously this list is highly subjective, and there should be plenty of spirited debate about which order these coaches fall. Our final Power Five league is the SEC, a league filled with accomplished coaches and fantastic coaching personalities.

1. Nick Saban, Alabama
Nick Saban, Alabama

Record at Alabama: 152-23
Record Overall: 243-65-1
Notable Accomplishments: 6 National Titles, 9 Conference Titles, 4-Time SEC Coach of the Year (2003, 2008, 2009, 2016)

Even as the Crimson Tide embark on their first season without a Playoff appearance in the Playoff era, it's hard to make any argument that Nick Saban is not the top coach in the SEC. Saban is the winningest active head coach in the country, and he supplements that fact with six National Titles, nine conference titles (8 in the SEC), and 12 SEC West Division Titles. That's truly a staggering resume, particularly when you consider Saban has had all that success in the nation's toughest football conference, with 129 other FBS teams all trying to take down the Tide. Even if you aren't an Alabama fan, you have to appreciate the unprecedented success they've had the past decade-plus. Being able to out-recruit opposing programs, develop all that talent, and then go out and win consistently as they have is easier said than done. I don't believe this train will stop rolling anytime soon; Saban and the Tide should be make in the CFB Playoff in 2020.

2. Kirby Smart, Georgia
Record at Georgia: 44-12
Record Overall: 44-12
Notable Accomplishments: One Conference Title, 3 SEC East Division Titles, SEC Coach of the Year (2017), Broyles Award

Nick Saban's long-time assistant has yet to take down the mighty head man in Tuscaloosca, but Kirby Smart has done just about everything else in four seasons you could ask. After a solid 8-5 debut campaign, the Bulldogs have lost a total of seven games over their next three seasons, winning the SEC East each year. In addition to the success on the field, Kirby and his staff have been absolutely dominant on the recruiting trail, consistently reeling in Top 3 classes, and taking home the top class overall for 2020. That amount of talent coming into the program has continued to raise the Bulldogs' national profile, but it's also put plenty of pressure on Kirby. Georgia fans haven't seen the program take home a National Title since 1980, a fact they're consistently reminded of from opposing fan bases. This program has all the talent do so, now it's up to Smart to earn this ranking and finally deliver one back to Athens.

3. Ed Orgeron, LSU
Record at LSU: 40-9
Record Overall: 56-36
Notable Accomplishments: One National Title, One Conference Title, SEC Coach of the Year (2019)

Ed Orgeron is the perfect example of how a second chance in coaching can make all the difference. His first stint as head coach was at Ole Miss and it went pretty disastrous, as the Rebels went 10-25 in three years under his leadership, including a putrid 3-21 mark in the conference. Orgeron bounced around before making waves as USC's interim head coach when Lane Kiffin was fired mid-season in 2013. Despite a 6-2 record as the interim, essentially saving a lost season, Orgeron was not considered for the full-time gig, ending up at LSU as their D-Line coach. When he got the opportunity as an interim once again, he didn't let it slip away, earning the full-time gig in his home state. There was some shaky early moments for "Coach O", but his last two seasons have shown just how good of a coach he is. He was able to bring in a game-changer at QB in Joe Burrow, and then made the right decisions on offense to unleash Burrow, equating to 25 wins in the past two years, and a magical 2019 that included a National Title. The third act of Orgeron's coaching career will be all about keeping the momentum going. Can he provide a memorable encore without Burrow and a number of other important pieces? Doing so could further cement him as one of the best coaches in not just the SEC, but the entire nation.

4. Dan Mullen, Florida
Record at Florida: 21-5
Record Overall: 90-51
Notable Accomplishments: SEC Coach of the Year (2014), 10 Bowl Game Appearances

Dan Mullen might not have as many big games as the top three guys in these rankings, but his work done at both Mississippi State and Florida prove just how good of a coach he is. When he first arrived in Starkville, he took over a Bulldog program that had almost no football tradition, and turned them into a consistent postseason player while playing in one of the sport's toughest divisions. In nearly a decade with Mississippi State, he missed a bowl game just once, and he finished ranked in the Top 25 on three separate occasions. His jump to Florida wasn't much of a surprise, as he was a former Gator offensive coordinator but what has been surprising is just how quickly he's adjusted to his role in Gainesville. He helped UF jump from four wins to ten in his debut campaign, following that up with an 11-win 2019, capped off by a second straight New Year's Six bowl. His offensive prowess has been on full display in his two seasons with the Gators, as one of the country's worst offenses has become one of the better in the league. What can we expect in Year 3 of the Mullen tenure? If the Gators can overtake Georgia in the division, it will tell us a lot more about just how high of a ceiling he has.

5. Jimbo Fisher, Texas A&M
Record at Texas A&M: 17-9
Record Overall: 100-32
Notable Accomplishments: One National Title, 3 Conference Titles, One Playoff Appearance

Replacing a legendary head coach like Bobby Bowden is a tall task for any head coach, and Jimbo Fisher had to do just that when he took over at Florida State in 2010. Fisher certainly did a good job in Tallahassee, returning them to glory on a national level, and winning a National Championship in 2013, still one of the most dominant teams in school history. His success with the Seminoles led A&M to drop 7.5 million dollars annually to bring him in to replace Kevin Sumlin and while the jury's still out, Fisher's first two years in College Station have been promising. He's done an effective job getting top-tier talent to come to A&M, and a 17-9 record in the SEC is nothing to scoff at. Much like others on this list, Jimbo enters a crucial Year 3 with lofty expectations. Some consider the Aggies as Playoff contenders going into 2020, and possible challengers to LSU and Alabama inside the division. If A&M is unable to live up to those incredibly high standards, it could leave some fans wondering if Jimbo's massive price tag is going to be worth it in the long run.

6. Gus Malzahn, Auburn
Record at Auburn: 62-31
Record Overall: 71-34
Notable Accomplishments: 2 Conference Titles, 2 SEC West Division Titles, SEC Coach of the Year (2013)

Since a magical 2013 that saw Auburn go all the way to the BCS National Championship Game, Gus Malzahn has been a constant name on college football hot seat lists. His Auburn teams have routinely fluctuated between good and disappointing on a yearly basis, leaving the long-time head coach as a fascinating figure in the landscape of the SEC. To be fair to Malzahn, his numbers with the Tigers are pretty solid when you consider the division they play in, and he has any victories over Iron Bowl rival Alabama as the rest of the SEC does against the Tide since he took over (three). However, Auburn's lack of consistency makes it difficult to rate Gus any higher on this list. He's proven his worth as an offensive mind who can field some really fun groups, and Malzahn has also done well on the recruiting trail. But, until we're able to see sustained success from him, he fits into this conference as a good, but not great, head coach. Perhaps having a young quarterback to build around in Bo Nix may give Gus what he needs to finally reign atop the SEC once again.

7. Mark Stoops, Kentucky
Record at Kentucky: 44-44
Record Overall: 44-44
Notable Accomplishments: Four Bowl Appearances, SEC Coach of the Year (2018)

Give Kentucky and Mark Stoops both credit for their partnership since 2013. The school stuck with the head coach through difficult times early on in his tenure, including a 2-10 debut campaign, and it has worked out, as Stoops has Kentucky playing the best football they have in years. The Wildcats have now gone to four consecutive bowl games, and they've won two straight. Included in that bowl streak was the 2018 team, which showed just how much Stoops had elevated the quality of the program. That team went 10-3 on the year, won a New Year's Six Bowl, and came incredibly close to taking home the SEC East Division crown. To follow that up with an 8-5 record is actually pretty impressive; it showed this UK program was not a one-hit wonder, and this team won eight games after their starting QB, Terry Wilson, went down for the year in the season's first month and converted wide out Lynn Bowden was playing the position. It's probably unreasonable to think Stoops can get Kentucky to SEC Championship levels in the current iteration of the league, but from where he started, there is little question he's done a terrific job. Not bad for a guy who had never been a head coach before arriving in Lexington.

8. Mike Leach, Mississippi State
Record at Mississippi State: 0-0
Record Overall: 139-90
Notable Accomplishments: 15 Bowl Appearances, 2-Time Pac-12 Coach of the Year (2015, 2018)

Mike Leach is certainly a unique character, and he's won at some of college's most unique outposts. In a decade at Texas Tech, a school without much of a tradition on the gridiron, Leach averaged over eight wins per season and finished ranked fifth times. After a two-year hiatus from the sport, Leach was brought on at Washington State, another school with little to no winning tradition on the football field. After some initial bumps, Leach was rolling in Pullman, winning eight or more games in four of the last five seasons. Now it's time to gear up for his latest destination: Starkville, Mississippi. Mississippi State is a program that has upgraded their talent level in a big way over the past two decades, and Dan Mullen proved you could win there. But, getting elite talent to come to Starkville will always be a tough task, and Leach has never been known as a great recruiter. He is going to need different athletes in the SEC than the ones he brought in during his time at TTU and WSU. It's going to be really interesting to see if his patented "Air Raid" scheme is able to survive in the physical SEC. It may or may not but either way, it's going to be awfully entertaining.

9. Lane Kiffin, Ole Miss
Record at Ole Miss: 0-0
Record Overall: 61-34
Notable Accomplishments: 2 Conference Titles

Lane Kiffin made history in 2007 when, at age 31, he became the youngest head coach in modern NFL history. Since then, Kiffin's career has truly been a fascinating and entertaining watch, with some success, but also notable failures. He had an epic, short-lived season as head coach of Tennessee before ditching out West to take over at USC, where the Trojans were crippled by NCAA violations, but still competitive. After eventually being fired at 'SC, Kiffin again made a short stop at one of the sport's blue bloods, this time as offensive coordinator at Alabama. To give Lane credit, aside from constant clashes with head coach Nick Saban, he did a good job leading the Tide offense. From 2014-2016, he helped 'Bama switch from a pro-style attack into a modern, spread look that allowed the Tide to compete with the rest of the sport's elite. From Alabama, Kiffin has been able to further improve his coaching stock by leading Florida Atlantic to a pair of C-USA Titles. The Owls were an extremely forgettable program before his arrival, but they would go 18-6 in the conference during his time there. The next stop in the Lane Train is now in Oxford, Mississippi, where he hopes to energize a program that was extremely underwhelming under former coach Matt Luke. Will he win there? You can never predict how a Lane Kiffin-led team will finish, but he has proven his coaching chops these past few years at FAU. Obviously, the SEC West is quite the jump up from the C-USA, but I wouldn't be shocked if it worked.

10. Jeremy Pruitt, Tennessee
Record at Tennessee: 13-12
Record Overall: 13-12
Notable Accomplishments: 5 National Championships as Assistant

A longtime assistant, Jeremy Pruitt finally made the jump to head coaching at one of the sport's most difficult venues. The Tennessee job is not tough because of its resources or potential to win, but because of how high the expectations are for a program that hasn't won consistently in a long time. Tennessee fans can often turn on head coaches rather quick, and after a poor start to the 2019 campaign, it looked like Vol fans were about ready to ditch the second-year coach. Give Pruitt credit, he righted the ship and by the end of the fall, UT was playing tremendous football. They ended 2019 8-5, capped off from a come-from-behind bowl victory over Indiana. To add to their recent momentum, the 2021 recruiting class is currently ranked as one of the best in the entire nation. That's going to help contribute to what will be lofty expectations once again in Knoxville. This isn't the first time people have begun to consider Tennessee returning to SEC East Title contention, but that adds a lot of pressure on Pruitt. If he's able to weather the storm and keep the Volunteers in the hunt for a division title, his stock should continue to rise.

11. Will Muschamp, South Carolina
Record at South Carolina: 26-25
Record Overall: 54-46
Notable Accomplishments: One SEC East Division Title, 6 Bowl Appearances

On a surface level, Will Muschamp's career numbers really are nothing to feel bad about. 54-46 in Power Five football is respectable, and even a 26-25 mark at South Carolina seems fine when you consider the state of the program pre-Steve Spurrier. However, a closer look helps you learn why Muschamp is floundering near the bottom of the league in these rankings. Aside from one 11-2 campaign in 2012, Muschamp has never achieved double-digit wins. In fact, he has reached the pedestal of eight wins just twice in nearly a decade of coaching. His numbers against big-time college football opponents aren't very encouraging either; he's 5-15 all-time against the Top 10, and 7-25 against Top 25 foes. Those numbers get worse when you consider half his coaching career was spent at Florida, a blue blood of the sport that has massive school support and regularly brings in elite football talent. Muschamp will now enter Year 5 at South Carolina on the hot seat, following a 4-8 record in 2019 and fourth place finish in the division. To be fair, he has shown some progress in his time at South Carolina, but the Gamecocks still have been rather mediocre under his leadership. Perhaps that is just where Muschamp sits as a head coach in college football.

12. Eli Drinkwitz, Missouri
Record at Missouri: 0-0
Record Overall: 12-1
Notable Accomplishments: 1 Conference Title

Eli Drinkwitz has been a rising name in the coaching profession since he was the Quality Control coach on the 2010 National Championship Auburn team. After floating around as offensive coordinator at a few programs, Drinkwitz was hired by Appalachian State to replace Scott Satterfield and his lone season in Boone, North Carolina was a great one. The Mountaineers went 12-1 under Drinkwitz, winning the Sun Belt and coming extremely close to a New Year's Six Bowl. Drinkwitz was able to parlay that success into an SEC job at Missouri, a school with significant upside but one that languished under former coach Barry Odom. Drinkwitz certainly enters with a lot of momentum, but there's a reason he is ranked so low on this list. First off, we just haven't seen enough of him as a head coach. Last year was impressive, but Appalachian State won a lot of close games, and keeping a program running over the long run is quite different than a one-year hit. Secondly, App. State was already in great position when he got there. There was no rebuild job for Drinkwitz, as he inherited a roster equipped to dominate the Sun Belt. He doesn't quite get that at Missouri, where he'll be breaking in a new QB and plenty of new pieces. Those two factors alone give me pause before jumping on the Drinkwitz hype train, as he'll have to wait and see what he does in Columbia. He has injected some new energy into a Mizzou program that needed it, but will the wins come too?

13. Derek Mason, Vanderbilt
Record at Vanderbilt: 27-47
Record Overall: 27-47
Notable Accomplishments: 2 Bowl Appearances

Replacing a coach like James Franklin is a tall task for any coach, but it's particularly hard at a place like Vanderbilt. In that sense, it's not surprising that Derek Mason has struggled to live up to his predecessor, who orchestrated a pair of nine-win campaigns in 2012 and 2013. Mason has had some success at Vanderbilt, who has gone to two bowls under his leadership, and has generally operated at around .500 level. At a school like Vandy, which has a long tradition of losing, that isn't something to completely overlook. However, fresh off a 3-9 2019 campaign, things are getting hot for Mason in Nashville. It's easier to look past some of his successes and focus in on his failures, which are going to happen at a place like Vanderbilt. Under Mason, the Commodores have finished last or second-to-last in the SEC East every single season except for one (2015, when they went 4-8 overall). That's more excusable in the SEC West, but not in an East Division that has routinely been the the weaker division this decade. There is still some hope that Mason, a defensive-minded coach who helped oversee Stanford's turn to perennial Pac-12 power, can turn things around, but the clock is certainly ticking.

14. Sam Pittman, Arkansas
Record at Arkansas: 0-0
Record Overall: 0-0
Notable Accomplishments: None

Nearly Sam Pittman's entire career he has been an offensive line coach, but he's finally making the jump to head coach in 2020 with Arkansas. Pittman won't have it easy; not only does he play in arguably college football's toughest division, he's taking over a program that has gone 4-20 the past two seasons, and has won just one SEC game since 2017. Much like Drinkwitz at Missouri, Pittman does deserve credit for the energy he has injected into a program that has a complete and utter disaster under former head man Chad Morris. But, that enthusiasm and energy is a lot more endearing when there are no results to look at. If Pittman struggles early on, it could really hurt his chances to truly "rebuild" things in Fayetteville. I do give the Razorbacks credit for going with Pittman, who was an outside-the-box hire, even as he was getting recognition for his offensive line work. If he is able to recruit and develop talent, in a way Bert Bielema and Morris were unable to, Arkansas could really be a sleeping giant.

Tuesday, June 16, 2020

College Football Coach Rankings 2020: Pac-12

David Shaw, Stanford
My "Coach Rankings 2020" aims to compile a definitive list of the best coaches in the sport in each Power Five league. To do this, I tried to weigh the current trajectory of the coach's program, past success at current school and former schools, as well as recruiting impact. Obviously this list is highly subjective, and there should be plenty of spirited debate about which order these coaches fall. Next up is the Pac-12, another league that has seen a lot of turnover at the head coaching position in the last few years.

1. Kyle Whittingham, Utah
Record at Utah: 131-64
Record Overall: 131-64
Notable Accomplishments: 3 Pac-12 South Division Titles, Two BCS Bowl Victories, One Conference Title

It's not often a program makes two home run hires in a row, but Utah did just that when they hired Kyle Whittingham after Urban Meyer left for Florida. Whittingham has been with the Utes since he took over as D-Line coach in 1994, rising up the ranks to head coach. Since 2005, he was overseen the program rise from "BCS buster" to a respectable, consistent Power Five winner. The 2008 campaign, when Utah went 13-0, will live in the school's history forever, but Whittingham has shown he can lead the Utes to other highs, including three division titles in the Pac-12 South. They've missed the postseason twice since '05, a testament to Whittingham's ability to lead any type of roster to success. At a place like Utah, he isn't ever going to bring in elite-level high school talent, but Whittingham has sent a ton of players to the NFL, especially on the defensive side of the ball. After placing the Utes in the Playoff conversation this past fall, it will be fascinating to watch him reload in Salt Lake City. Both their quarterback and record-setting tailback move on, as well as a number of key pieces on defense.

2. Mario Cristobal, Oregon
Record at Oregon: 21-7
Record Overall: 48-54
Notable Accomplishments: 2 Conference Titles, Pac-12 North Division Title, Sun Belt Coach of the Year (2010)

Mario Cristobal's career path has been interesting to watch, as he first got his start as head coach with Florida International. At the time, he was 36 years old, and the first Cuban-American head coach in college football. He did a solid job at FIU but after a down 2012 campaign, in which the Panthers fell to 3-9, he was let go. After landing at Alabama until 2016 he arrived in Eugene and became the head coach when Willie Taggart left. He was done a superb job in his two years with the Ducks, and the program's trajectory has really risen. Cristobal has always been known as a great recruiter, but he's also earning his stripes as a in-game head coach. He did an excellent job with Oregon, who was a loss to Arizona State away from a second Playoff berth. Cristobal has a bunch returning, and even greater things could be in store for 2020. If Oregon keeps improving at this pace, it wouldn't be shocking to see Cristobal really assert himself as the top coach on the West Coast.

3. Herm Edwards, Arizona State
Record at Arizona State: 15-11
Record Overall: 15-11
Notable Accomplishments: Four NFL Playoff Appearances, 2 Straight Bowl Appearances

Herm Edwards deserves a lot of credit for the work he has done in two years, and I think Year 3 could be really special. Edwards was certainly an out-of-the-box hire at ASU, a coach who had been in the NFL most of his career. In fact, Edwards arrived at Arizona State not having coached in a collegiate game since the late 1980's when he was a defensive backs coach at San Jose State. But, Herm really seems to have embraced building a college football program, and the Sun Devils have been in the mix for the Pac-12 South Title both years. They enter 2020 as possibly the division's favorite, and there is a confidence that Edwards and this team have exuded over the last couple years. He also continues to have momentum on the recruiting trail, which speaks to Herm's charisma and passion for the position. With all this momentum in his favor right now, Edwards rises to the upper echelon of the league.

4. David Shaw, Stanford
Record at Stanford: 86-34
Record Overall: 86-34
Notable Accomplishments: 3 Conference Titles, Four-Time Pac-12 Coach of the Year (2011, 2012, 2015, 2017)

A few years ago, David Shaw might be a lock for the top spot on this list, but his stock has fallen a little bit in recent times. The Cardinal are fresh off a frustrating 4-8 2019, a season in which they looked flat on both sides of the ball. Too be fair, Stanford did suffer an injury bug this past fall, but it still left a dark feeling in Palo Alto at this point in Shaw's tenure. Perhaps the 47-year-old can institute a quick turnaround, which isn't completely impossible with how wild the Pac-12 can get. And, perhaps recency bias is playing into this ranking a little too much, as Shaw is as accomplished as any coach in the conference. He's won three conference titles with the Cardinal, and five Pac-12 North Division Titles. Shaw had big shoes to fill when Jim Harbaugh left, but he has done a fine job keeping this program going. If the Cardinal are able to respond with a resurgent 2020, he'll definitely be far too low.

5. Justin Wilcox, California
Record at California: 20-18
Record Overall: 20-18
Notable Accomplishments: 2 Bowl Appearances

Even coaching at a massive institution like Cal-Berkeley, Justin Wilcox doesn't get much attention for the work he has done with the Golden Bears. Under his leadership, the program has improved their win total in each of the past three seasons, and even their 8-5 record in 2019 was a little bit deceiving. Cal was undefeated before an injury to starting QB Chase Garbers that cost him nearly the season's entire second half, causing them to slip in the Pac-12 pecking order. If Garbers was healthy all year long, I don't think it's crazy to consider Cal winning ten games this past season. Whether Wilcox will be able to keep the steady improvement going remains to be seen, but he continues to prove his worth as a developmental football coach. He's quickly changed the Cal identity from an air raid, spread it out scheme under Sonny Dykes into a defensive-minded, tough football team. That's an incredibly quick change of identity and culture under his guidance.

6. Clay Helton, USC
Record at USC: 40-22
Record Overall: 40-22
Notable Accomplishments: One Conference Title, 2 Pac-12 South Division Titles

Clay Helton has taken a lot of heat over the last two years, but such is the reality of being the head coach of USC. With that being said, Helton's resume with the Trojans is actually pretty respectable, even if he hasn't won quite as much as some had hoped. In his first two full seasons with the Trojans, Helton went 21-6, 15-3 in the conference, and won a Pac-12 Title and Rose Bowl. Of course, that has led way into two consecutive disappointing campaigns, along with frustrations on the recruiting trail. The good news for Helton is that the program's trajectory actually appears to be shifting up when you look ahead to 2020. Helton has identified a star QB to run the show in Kedon Slovis, and he was one of the game's bright young stars on his coaching staff in Graham Harrell. If 'SC doesn't win a division title in a wide open Pac-12 South this fall, that's likely it for Helton in Southern Cal.

7. Jonathan Smith, Oregon State
Record at Oregon State: 7-17
Record Overall: 7-17
Notable Accomplishments: None

Oregon State is one of the tougher jobs in the Pac-12, and the Power Five in general. It's a school without a significant football history, and one working against the Nike money that flows through the state at the University of Oregon. But, Jonathan Smith has done an admirable job in Corvallis since taking over at his alma mater. The former star quarterback took the jump after a successful run as Washington's offensive coordinator and after a poor debut campaign, the Beavers came incredibly close to a bowl berth in Year Two. Oregon State also finished up tied for second in the Pac-12 North, quite a showing for a team that has not played in the postseason since 2013. Under Smith, Oregon State has featured a fun, explosive offense, but the young head coach must prove he can develop the defensive side of the ball. Year 3 is always huge for any head coach, but Smith's strong showing in the first two years should have Beavs fans feeling good about the future of the program.

8. Chip Kelly, UCLA
Record at UCLA: 7-17
Record Overall: 53-24
Notable Accomplishments: 3 Conference Titles, One National Championship Game Appearance, 2-Time Pac-10 Coach of the Year (2009, 2010)

Chip Kelly's impact on the collegiate game can't be understated, as his up-tempo, no-huddle offense at Oregon revolutionized modern college football. Not only were Kelly's offenses fun to watch, they were highly effective, as Oregon turned into a true National Title contender year-in, year-out. After a brief stint in the NFL, Chip's return to the college game hasn't been quite so fun. His two seasons at UCLA, the Bruins have gone 3-9 and then 4-8, and Kelly has shockingly been unable to win a single non-conference game during that span. You'd expect that to change in 2020, but nothing else about the program inspires much confidence. The offense has offered little to no excitement under Kelly, and the program's recruiting and energy seems down. Perhaps it will take Chip just a little bit longer to build up the Bruins than the Ducks, but the pressure is on for the 56-year-old head coach. If UCLA again misses the postseason in '20, Chip may be looking for his fourth coaching job since 2013.

9. Jimmy Lake, Washington
Record at Washington: 0-0
Record Overall: 0-0
Notable Accomplishments: None

The way I've been operating with first-year head coaches in these rankings, they're usually near the bottom of their respective conferences, and there's just not enough of a resume to warrant a higher ranking. That remains true of Jimmy Lake as he takes over for Chris Petersen in Seattle, even though Lake has earned a lot of respect over the years for the work he has done as Washington co-DC. Lake is known for his work with defensive backs, and he's sent a bunch to the NFL over the past few years, a pretty remarkable streak for a school that didn't used to produce much professional talent. The jump to head coach won't be an easy one, particularly for a Huskies team breaking in a new quarterback. Lake does have the advantage of continuity on his side, as he is very comfortable with this program and well-liked by players, staying in Seattle since 2014. The question for Lake is about keeping the Huskies in the national conversation, which becomes more difficult with a rising Oregon in the division.

10. Nick Rolovich, Washington State
Record at Washington State: 0-0
Record Overall: 28-27
Notable Accomplishments: Mountain West West Division Title, MW Coach of the Year (2019)

With Mike Leach taking the head coach job at Mississippi State, Washington State opted to replace him with a very similar coach in the form of Nick Rolovich. Much like Leach, Rolovich loves to play an aggressive, air raid scheme that worked wonders this past season while at Hawaii. Leach will still be a difficult coach to replace, as he has proven he can win at some of the sport's most unique outposts. However, Rolovich offers plenty of relief a less controversial figure who continues to rise up the coaching ladder. Despite being an alum at Hawaii, Rolovich felt that Wazzu was the right fit, and the personnel there should ensure a pretty smooth transition. It might be difficult to keep the Cougars in the mix for division titles, but he should have success.

11. Kevin Sumlin, Arizona
Record at Arizona: 9-15
Record Overall: 95-58
Notable Accomplishments: SEC Coach of the Year (2012), C-USA Coach of the Year (2009, 2011)

Back in 2012, Kevin Sumlin was one of the hottest names in the coaching profession. In his first season with Texas A&M, Sumlin had led the Aggies to a thrilling 11-2 season that was capped off with a Cotton Bowl victory over Oklahoma, and punctuated by the Johnny Manziel Heisman win. Nearly a decade later, Sumlin is fighting to stay on at Arizona, a program that has seriously trailed off over the last few years. When he was brought on, Sumlin's offense seemed like an ideal fit with Arizona's Khalil Tate, but the two never meshed and a 5-7 debut campaign was incredibly underwhelming. Things didn't get any better in Year Two for Sumlin, as the Wildcats started off 4-1 before dropping their final seven games and rounding out the cellar in the South Division. While he was brought back for a third year, Sumlin is truly on his last legs in Tucson. If this team doesn't show some signs of life, it's hard to envision him lasting until 2021. Perhaps Sumlin is much like Chip Kelly at UCLA, simply needing some time to get comfortable in a new gig but in modern college football, you simply don't get that much chances before you're gone.

12. Karl Dorrell, Colorado
Record at Colorado: 0-0
Record Overall: 35-27
Notable Accomplishments: Pac-10 Coach of the Year (2005)

Perhaps the most surprising hire of the 2020 coaching carousel came at Colorado, where the Buffaloes decided to replace Mel Tucker with former UCLA head coach Karl Dorrell. It was fascinating for a few reasons; for one, Dorrell's UCLA tenure wasn't exactly super successful, with just one Top 25 finish. Secondly, Dorrell has zero ties to the school, or the state of Colorado for that matter. Lastly, the 57-year-old has been out of the college game for a long time, coaching almost exclusively in the NFL with the exception of a stint in 2014 as Vanderbilt's OC/QB coach. That isn't to say I think that this hire is an absolute disaster, but it doesn't exactly capture the attention for a program that has regularly been at the bottom of the Pac-12 since their move here. In Year One, Dorrell will have to find a new quarterback and new top target after Laviska Shenault moved on, a tall task for a first-year on the job.

Tuesday, June 9, 2020

College Football Coach Rankings 2020: Big 12

My "Coach Rankings 2020" aims to compile a definitive list of the best coaches in the sport in each Power Five league. To do this, I tried to weigh the current trajectory of the coach's program, past success at current school and former schools, as well as recruiting impact. Obviously this list is highly subjective, and there should be plenty of spirited debate about which order these coaches fall. Next up in the series is the Big 12, a league that has seen a lot of coaching turnover over the last few years, but has a group with loads of potential.  

1. Lincoln Riley, Oklahoma
Lincoln Riley

Record at Oklahoma: 36-6
Record Overall: 36-6
Notable Accomplishments: 3 Conference Titles, 3 CFB Playoff Appearances, Broyles Award, Big 12 Coach of the Year (2018)

When Bob Stoops made a stunning decision to retire just months prior to the 2017 season, Lincoln Riley was tasked with the difficult job of replacing the legendary head coach. All he has done since then is win three straight Big 12 Titles, go to the Playoff three straight years, and coach three Heisman Finalists (two of them winners). That's quite an impressive resume already for Riley, and the innovative offensive mind doesn't appear to be slowing down anytime soon. No defense in the league has shown they can stop his offense yet, and Riley continues to be a force on the recruiting trail in bringing in skill position talent. Already he is the top coach in the league, but to reach truly elite status, he has to prove he can win on the grand stage. That would mean winning a Playoff game or two, which has eluded Riley in his three trips. At some point, you'd expect his defense to finally catch up to the record-setting pace the offense is firing at. If it does, it wouldn't shock me at all to see Riley hoist a National Title in short order, and continue to earn accolades along the way.

2. Gary Patterson, TCU
Record at TCU: 172-70
Record Overall: 172-70
Notable Accomplishments: 6 Conference Titles, Home Depot Coach of the Year Award (2014), Big 12 Coach of the Year (2014)

Few coaches in college football mean as much to their respective programs as Gary Patterson at TCU. Taking over at TCU in the early 2000's, he's seen the program move from the Conference USA to the WAC, to the Mountain West, and now the Power Five. During those transitions, Patterson has consistently kept the Horned Frogs as contenders on the national stage. They've finished ranked in the Top 25 13 times under Patterson, and have won a number of major bowl games, including a Rose Bowl in 2010, and a Peach Bowl in 2014. However, Patterson falls below Riley on this list because of the past two years, where TCU has gone 12-13 overall, including missing a bowl in 2019 for the first time since '13. In fact, since the move to the Big 12, TCU has understandably taking somewhat of a step back, finishing below .500 in the league six times. That doesn't diminish the success that Patterson has had previously, but does put some pressure on the 60-year-old as we embark on a new decade in college football.

3. Mike Gundy, Oklahoma State
Record at Oklahoma State: 129-64
Record Overall: 129-64
Notable Accomplishments: One Conference Title, Big 12 Coach of the Year Award (2010), 14 straight bowl appearances

Much like Patterson, Mike Gundy is a coach with a history of longevity and success at his school. Gundy took over for Les Miles when he took the LSU job, and after a 4-7 debut campaign, Oklahoma State has not missed the postseason since. That's a remarkable run anywhere, but particularly for an OSU program that has struggled to gain respect in both the Big Eight and Big 12. Included in that span have been some really amazing highs, most notably the 2010 and 2011 seasons. 2011 will always operate as a major what-if in college football history, as the Cowboys were flawless with the exception of a shocking loss to Iowa State on the road. If not for that loss, Oklahoma State would've gone to the BCS National Championship Game against LSU, a team that would've had a difficult time slowing down Brandon Weeden and Justin Blackmon. Either way, Gundy deserves a lot of credit for the consistency he has developed in Stillwater, a continued run of success that too often gets ignored by the national media.

4. Matt Campbell, Iowa State
Record at Iowa State: 26-25
Record Overall: 61-40
Notable Accomplishments: 2 MAC West Division Titles, 2 Time Big 12 Coach of the Year (2017, 2018)

One of the fastest rising names in the coaching profession resides in Ames, Iowa. Matt Campbell has gone from a relatively unknown commodity when he took over at Iowa State into a well-respected head coach who continues to be connected to other Power Five jobs. For now, Campbell seems content to keep crafting an ISU program that was stuck in the cellar of the Big 12 when he first took over, but is now consistently at the top of the league standings. With that being said, Campbell is still awaiting his major "breakthrough" that could shoot him further up this list. While ISU has contended for a league title, they have yet to play for a Big 12 Championship Game, a reasonable goal for 2020 and beyond. Even more realistic, is the goal of beating their Cy-Hawk rival, Iowa. Campbell and the Cyclones came incredibly close in 2019, but he is still waiting on his first victory over the in-state rival. Neither of those might happen in 2020, or both might, but no matter what Campbell deserves a ton of credit for how quickly he has transformed this Iowa State program into a legitimate contender.

5. Chris Klieman, Kansas State
Record at Kansas State: 8-5
Record Overall: 80-18
Notable Accomplishments: 4 FCS National Titles, 5 FCS Conference Titles

From this point on, I think you could interchange nearly any head coach on this list with the other, as there isn't a whole lot of clear separation between some of these coaches. But, Chris Klieman earns this spot over others because of the work he's already done. He won four FCS National Titles while coaching North Dakota State, with the only year he didn't win being the 2016 campaign. That's a ludicrous run no matter where you're at, even if it is a FCS power like NDSU. Klieman made the expected jump to FBS, and his first season at Kansas State didn't disappoint. The Wildcats went a very respectable 8-5, and pulled off a major upset of Oklahoma that nearly derailed the Sooners' Playoff hopes. It was a pretty stirring debut season for Klieman, who is tasked with the stiff challenge of replacing a coaching legend in Bill Snyder. Snyder meant so much to this Kansas State program (his name is on the stadium!), but I think Klieman should be able to show that other coaches can win in Manhattan. He might not turn the Wildcats into a consistent conference title favorite, but he is the type of X and O football coach that should develop this program into a perennial postseason team.

6. Tom Herman, Texas
Record at Texas: 25-15
Record Overall: 47-19
Notable Accomplishments: One Conference Title, American Athletic Coach of the Year (2015), Broyles Award

There isn't a long list of coaches who have had as meteoric of a rise in college football this past decade than Tom Herman. Ten years ago, he was the offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach at Rice, now he is the head man at the largest institution in the state of Texas, and one of the sport's signature blue bloods. In between those jobs, Herman was the OC at Iowa State and Ohio State before an impressive two-year run at Houston as the head coach. While at Houston, Herman went 22-4, and pulled off a few memorable upsets, including beating Oklahoma and Florida State. So far, his Texas tenure has had his moments, but like Campbell, he still is searching for that "breakthrough". A Sugar Bowl win over Georgia at the end of the 2018-2019 campaign looked like it might provide the groundwork for a return to glory, but UT's disappointing 8-5 mark this past season killed most of the buzz Herman had been building. Despite this, Herman still remains a terrific offensive mind who has proven his worth on the recruiting trail. He has a real ability to connect with these young kids, that is a signature talent in the modern world of college football. It would not be shocking if he is able to have a redemptive 2020 and rise swiftly up this ranking.

7. Neal Brown, West Virginia
Record at West Virginia: 5-7
Record Overall: 40-23
Notable Accomplishments: One Conference Title, Sun Belt Coach of the Year (2017)

Neal Brown is a fabulous football coach, and it felt wrong ranking him so low in any coach ranking. But, the fact of the matter is that he just hasn't done enough at the Power Five level to warrant a ranking much higher than this, as his debut season was a solid, but underwhelming, 5-7 record. Brown does deserve a lot of credit for his previous work as OC at both Texas Tech and Kentucky, but most importantly, his work as head coach at Troy. After a 4-8 debut campaign, Brown led the Trojans to a record of 31-8 over the next three seasons. In that span, they won the conference in 2017, and won their respective division in 2018. They also pulled off a shocking upset of LSU in Baton Rouge, one of the more shocking upsets in recent college football history. It will be fascinating to see whether Brown is able to achieve the same success at West Virginia. This is a school that has had recent success, but is certainly an odd fit in the current Big 12. Perhaps Brown will be able to use that to his benefit, and reach into recruiting areas in the Midwest and Northeast.

8. Les Miles, Kansas
Record at Kansas: 3-9
Record Overall: 145-64
Notable Accomplishments: One National Title, Two Conference Titles, 3 SEC West Division Titles

How do you evaluate Les Miles as a college football coach in the year 2020? He certainly is one of college football's most fascinating and intriguing characters, and it's difficult to overlook his success while at LSU. In Baton Rouge, he won one National Title in 2007, played for one more in 2011, and further developed the "Bayou Bengals" into a national brand. However, the consistent criticism against Miles was that he was unable, or unwilling, to change his ways as the sport of college football evolved. He never modernized his run-heavy, physical offensive style, which made it nearly impossible to contend with the real big boys of the SEC, namely Alabama. That inability to modernize his offense eventually led to his ousting at LSU and after a two-year hiatus, he returned to head coaching with Kansas. Kansas is probably the most difficult job in all of Power Five, so it is going to be fascinating to see what happens with Miles here. To be fair to him, his debut season went about as well as could be expected given the circumstances. The Jayhawks went 3-9 and were the most competitive they've been in years. If Miles is able to get them back to some semblance of respectability, he will deserve a ton of credit, and will go down as a legend in Lawrence. But, given the way the offense looked in 2019 and the reality of the sport, I'd be pretty shocked if his KU run ends up being a success.

9. Matt Wells, Texas Tech
Record at Texas Tech: 4-8
Record Overall: 48-42
Notable Accomplishments: One Mountain West Mountain Division Title, 2-Time MW Coach of the Year (2013, 2018)

Despite being an alum of Utah State, Matt Wells decided to use his success there to take the Power Five leap, taking the Texas Tech job prior to 2019. The Tech job is an interesting one; Mike Leach has proven you can win big there, but it's still a program that often gets lost in the shuffle in the crowded state of Texas. Wells debut campaign didn't impress nor disappoint, as the Red Raiders went 4-8, but lost a number of close games inside the league. Certainly the key for Wells going forward will be finding out a way to finish out the close ones, something that usually comes with more experience and comfortability at the position. It will be also be intriguing to see what type of talent he can bring in to Lubbock over the coming years. This is not going to be a program regularly reeling in five-star recruits every single cycle, but there has been a healthy amount of talent throughout the program in just the past decade. Elevating Tech's recruiting will be crucial for Wells as he tries to distinguish the program from the rest of the conference.

10. Dave Aranda, Baylor
Record at Baylor: 0-0
Record Overall: 0-0
Notable Accomplishments: None

As defensive coordinator at Wisconsin and LSU, Dave Aranda asserted himself as one of the premier defensive minds in collegiate football. He regularly posted elite defensive numbers and was compensated quite handsomely, reeling in 2.5 million dollars annually. But, you always got the feeling Aranda was going to take the jump to head coaching at some point, and Baylor felt he was the right fit once Matt Rhule ditched to the NFL. The good news for Aranda is that Rhule left the program in really good shape, even as the defense graduates a number of important contributors. There's a lot of depth, talent at the skill positions, and a good feeling about the program, a far cry from where it was when Rhule first arrived in Waco. As a defensive guy, I don't think Aranda should be too worried about building a quality defense at Baylor, but the offense has to live up to the rest of this high-powered league. Hiring Larry Fedora as offensive coordinator seems like a great first step for Aranda, as the former UNC head coach is known as an offensive guru, and he's eager to work his way back up the coaching ladder. I really, really like the fit of Aranda with this program, but he'll need some time to adjust to the head coaching role. It's certainly quite an adjustment from a D-Coordinator position, even at a place like LSU. I think Aranda will rise up these ranking soon enough, but he rounds out this conference simply because of his lack of head coaching experience.

Friday, June 5, 2020

College Football Coach Rankings 2020: Big Ten

Jim Harbaugh
My "Coach Rankings 2020" aims to compile a definitive list of the best coaches in the sport in each Power Five league. To do this, I tried to weigh the current trajectory of the coach's program, past success at current school and former schools, as well as recruiting impact. Obviously this list is highly subjective, and there should be plenty of spirited debate about which order these coaches fall. I continue the series with the Big Ten, a conference with a lot of proven names, but not a clear-cut No. 1 coach.

1. Ryan Day, Ohio State
Record at Ohio State: 16-1
Record Overall: 16-1
Notable Accomplishments: One Conference Title, One CFB Playoff Appearance, Big Ten Coach of the Year (2019)

It says a lot about Ryan Day that he has already risen to No. 1 on this list after just one full season leading Ohio State. But, that's the type of respect you get when you win 16 of your first 17 games with Ohio State, with the only loss coming in the CFB Playoff semifinal to Clemson. Not only has Day impressed with his impressive command of the Buckeye offense, but his energy on the recruiting trail has been notable as well. Ohio State is always going to be a major player on the trail, but Day has elevated their ability to land big-name prospects. They currently rank No. 1 in the 2021 recruiting class rankings, a group that currently includes the No. 3 DE, No. 2 RB, and No. 1 OG. With the way his career trajectory is going, Day looks like he'll be locked in place in Columbus for a long time, with a lot of wins still yet to come.

2. James Franklin, Penn State
Record at Penn State: 56-23
Record Overall: 80-38
Notable Accomplishments: One Conference Title, 4 Straight New Year's Six Bowl Appearances

It's easy to forget how rocky James Franklin tenure began in Happy Valley, as two consecutive 7-6 campaigns were viewed as highly disappointing among the Penn State faithful. Since then, all Franklin has does is lead the Nittany Lions to four straight New Year's Six Bowls, while winning a Big Ten Title in 2016. The recent run is one of the best in Penn State's history, a school with a rich football tradition that has worked to clean themselves up following the Jerry Sandusky scandal. What makes it even more impressive is that Franklin has done it in a Big Ten East Division that may be one of the best in college football. Ohio State continues to be as dominant as ever, Michigan is back to respectability, Michigan State is always tough and even the lower-tier teams can provide a shock. The next step for Franklin is to take the next step and lead PSU to a Playoff berth; they came incredibly close in 2016, and will be in the mix again in 2020.

3. Jim Harbaugh, Michigan
Record at Michigan: 47-18
Record Overall: 105-45
Notable Accomplishments: 2 Conference Titles, NFL Coach of the Year (2011)

Jim Harbaugh has rubbed people the wrong way with his style of in-your-face coaching throughout his career, but it's difficult to deny how impressive his rise up the coaching ladder has been. He went from San Diego to Stanford and then the NFL before returning to his alma mater in Ann Arbor. And, for the most part, he has done a very fine job with the Michigan Wolverines. They've finished ranked four out of the five years he's been there, and came agonizingly to Big Ten Championship Game appearances in both 2016 and 2018. However, one giant obstacle continues to stand in his way: Ohio State. He has yet to beat the Buckeyes since taking over at Michigan, and it's clear that it remains his No. 1 goal at this point in his career. Whether he's able to do it relies on Harbaugh's ability to evolve; he's always favored an old-school approach to the game, but one that tends to fall apart when it faces off against the athletes OSU can put on the field. His commitment to opening up the offense under new OC Josh Gattis indicates that Harbaugh understands he must change his ways to really get over the top at UM. Whether he's able to do so will define his tenure at not only Michigan, but also possibly his coaching career as a whole.

4. Kirk Ferentz, Iowa
Record at Iowa: 162-104
Record Overall: 174-125
Notable Accomplishments: 2 Conference Titles, One Big Ten West Division Title, 4-Time Big Ten Coach of the Year (2002, 2004, 2009, 2015)

In a coaching profession where parity is the norm, Kirk Ferentz represents amazing consistency and resolve. He has been at his post in Iowa City for over two decades now, and is still churning out a consistent winner. Since 2007, Ferentz has recorded just one losing season a (4-8 2012) and he's won six bowl games. Included in that span was the surprising 2015 campaign, where Iowa came out of seemingly nowhere to go 12-2, earn a Rose Bowl berth, and come very close to a Big Ten Title. There's nothing flashy or exciting about the way that the 64-year-old coaches, but it's hard to argue that it isn't effective. Winning as much as Ferentz has in an unforgiving Big Ten is extremely impressive, and it doesn't look like he is slowing down at any point soon.

5. P.J. Fleck, Minnesota
Record at Minnesota: 23-15
Record Overall: 53-37
Notable Accomplishments: One Conference Title, Big Ten Coach of the Year (2019)

P.J. Fleck is another guy that has a tendency to rub some people the wrong way with his slogans and catchphrases, but it's worked so far at Minnesota. After an underwhelming debut campaign, Fleck has improved the Gophers from 7-6 to an 11-2 mark in 2019, the best the program has achieved in legitimately decades. To cap it all off by beating Auburn in the Outback Bowl said a lot about what the program can be now and in the future. Fleck and the way he has built the program also seems to indicate staying power; he has expanded Minnesota's recruiting footprint nationally. A look at some of the top players on this team heading into 2020 shows talent coming from all around the United States in Tanner Morgan (Kentucky), Rashod Bateman (Georgia), Daniel Faalele (Florida), Jordan Howden (Nevada) and Mohamed Ibrahim (Maryland). That's huge for a program that has struggled to get big-time talent to come north to the Twin Cities, the talent they need to field consistent contenders in the Big Ten.

6. Paul Chryst, Wisconsin
Record at Wisconsin: 52-16
Record Overall: 71-35
Notable Accomplishments: 3 Big Ten West Division Titles, 2-Time Big Ten Coach of the Year (2016, 2017)

Paul Chryst, a Madison native and UW alum, has coached at all different locales in the game of football. He's been in the WLAF, CFL, NFL, Division III and Division I, displaying an ability to lead a wide variety of teams to success. But, he appears to have a permanent home back at Wisconsin, where he has recorded double-digit victories four out of the five years that he has been the head coach. Chryst has kept the Wisconsin tradition of a power-run offense and physical defense alive, one that still racks up wins in the Big Ten. It will be interesting to see whether he can lead UW to the next step, not just making the Big Ten Championship Game, but winning one. In order to do that, the Badgers must continue to upgrade their talent at the offensive skill positions, and bringing in talents like Graham Mertz and Jalen Berger is a great place to start.

7. Pat Fitzgerald, Northwestern
Record at Northwestern: 99-79
Record Overall: 99-79
Notable Accomplishments: One Big Ten West Division Title, Big Ten Coach of the Year (2018), College Football Hall-of-Famer

Although Pat Fitzgerald is fresh off a brutal 3-9 2019, he has proven his worth during a 15-year run as head coach of his alma mater. He took over a Northwestern program that was in the dumps, and turned them into a fairly consistent contender. The Wildcats have appeared in nine bowl games under his leadership, with three straight victories from '16-'18. The highlight came during the 2018 season, when Northwestern recovered from a disappointing non-conference slate to go 8-1 in the conference and make a Big Ten Championship Game appearance. As Fitzgerald looks ahead to 2020, like other old-school, defensive-minded coaches like himself, he's hoping to try and modernize his offense. New offensive coordinator Mike Bajakian was brought in to improve the conference's worst offense, a group that was absolutely putrid throughout last fall. If the Wildcats are able to show significant improvement, it will tell us a lot about Fitzgerald, and his ability to evolve as a head coach. Despite being locked into his role as head coach, Fitzgerald's willingness to change is ever-important in modern college football.

8. Jeff Brohm, Purdue
Record at Purdue: 17-21
Record Overall: 47-31
Notable Accomplishments: 2 Conference Titles, 5 Bowl Game Appearances

A former NFL and XFL quarterback, Jeff Brohm has impressed in his rise from college coordinator to college head coach. Brohm got his first head coaching job at Western Kentucky, following Bobby Petrino, putting together three impressive seasons. Prior to his arrival, Purdue had won a total of nine games in four seasons, but Brohm has engineered a quick turnaround. He went to a bowl game his first two seasons in West Lafayette, before a down 2019 campaign. However, I don't think last fall should hurt his stock too much, as the Boilermakers suffered through the injury bug and lost a number of close games. What really has impressed me about Brohm is the fact he's been able to upgrade the talent level so quickly while at Purdue. Guys like Rondale Moore, David Bell and George Karlaftis are simply not guys that would have come to this school under previous coaching staffs, but Brohm has really changed the feeling and persona around the program. Purdue's ability to keep him away from other job offers, such as his alma mater Louisville, is a major success.

9. Tom Allen, Indiana
Record at Indiana: 18-20
Record Overall: 18-20
Notable Accomplishments: 2 Bowl Appearances, Most Single-Season Wins at Indiana since 1993

When Tom Allen took over at Indiana, it looked like a pretty significant challenge for the Indiana native. His predecessor, Kevin Wilson, had gotten the Hoosiers to back-to-back bowl games before being fired, but they were still looking up at most of the Big Ten East, and there were concerns about the way that Wilson had run the program. Allen did an okay job his first two years on campus, going 5-7 in both, but came just short of the postseason in both years. With the pressure on him elevated going into 2019, Allen and the Hoosiers responded with their best season since 1993. They won eight games, went over .500 in the conference, and played in a very respectable bowl game. While the season ended in a disappointing manner with Tennessee coming from behind to beat them in the bowl, it was still an unquestioned success. Now, Allen will be tasked with keeping the momentum going. Indiana could settle in nicely in the division as a consistent fourth place-squad who can take shots at the Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan tier pretty consistently. For a basketball school that has struggled to ever develop consistently good football on the field, that would be a pretty nice spot to be in under Allen.

10. Scott Frost, Nebraska
Record at Nebraska: 9-15
Record Overall: 28-22
Notable Accomplishments: "National Champion", One Conference Title, Home Depot Coach of the Year Award (2017)

Scott Frost's coaching resume has been pretty volatile over this past half-decade, with incredible highs but some real low points in his first two years at Nebraska. Frost earned a lot of credit for his work at UCF, where he quickly transformed a team that had previously gone 0-12 into one of the sport's most consistent Group of Five contenders. He did it in a very exciting way too; he opened up the UCF offense into a fast-paced, fearless group that decimated opponents with their speed on the perimeter. It seemed only natural that his arrival in Lincoln, where he once starred as a player, would bring the same type of success. Nebraska is one of the sport's well-regarded blue bloods, and Frost had loads of talent to work with. However, college football is a weird sport, and even the coaching fits that look the best on paper don't always work out the way most expect. Frost opened up with a 4-8 debut, but last year's 5-7 mark was significantly more disappointing, as the 'Huskers opened the year with a Top 25 ranking and were viewed as the media's Big Ten West pick. That puts a lot of pressure on Frost entering Year 3, but Nebraska still has a ton of holes on defense and a ton of question marks on their offense. The administration appears to still believe Frost is their guy, and he could quickly change the perception of himself with a successful year. But, he just hasn't done enough in his two seasons with the Cornhuskers to warrant a higher ranking here.

11. Greg Schiano, Rutgers
Record at Rutgers: 68-67 (0-0 in second stint)
Record Overall: 68-67
Notable Accomplishments: Home Depot Coach of the Year (2006), Former Big East Coach of the Year (2006)

There was no coaching carousel hire this past off-season as unsurprising as Greg Schiano returning to his roots at Rutgers. From 2001-2011 Schiano was the head coach of the Scarlet Knights and built them into a fairly consistent contender in the old Big East. They played in six bowl games under Schiano's leadership, and their 11-2 2006 will forever go down in program history as a special team. Schiano eventually took the jump to the NFL, but he has since returned to college as Ohio State's D-Coordinator and a short-lived stint as Tennessee's head man. It is going to be a fascinating watch to see how Schiano aims to build up Rutgers this time around. For one thing, the Big Ten East is a significant step-up from the old Big East, and Rutgers has struggled to even stay on the field with most of their league opponents. Secondly, more and more programs are going into the state of New Jersey and having success, making it extra important that Schiano is able to lock down the state as a recruiter. Schiano is a very energetic guy and passionate football coach, and he did great things in his first go-around. Whether this stint looks like Mack Brown's at UNC on the plus-side, or Randy Edsall's second stint at UConn on the down side, remains to be seen.

12. Lovie Smith, Illinois
Lovie Smith

Record at Illinois: 15-34
Record Overall: 15-34
Notable Accomplishments: Former NFL Coach of the Year

What makes ranking college football head coaches so difficult is curious cases like Lovie Smith. As the first African-American to coach an NFL team in the Super Bowl, Lovie is somewhat of a coaching legend. But, that hasn't necessarily translated to success during his tenure at Illinois, as Smith has found himself perennially on the hot seat. To be fair to Lovie, Illinois was in a pretty disastrous place before his arrival, and he has made pretty consistent progress. The Illini returned to a bowl game for the first time since 2014 this past fall, and they've undertaken an interesting method to bring talent to Champaign. Instead of bring in unproven high school recruits, the Illinois staff has instead leaned on the transfer portal to bring in talent. So far, they've already brought in former high-profile recruits such as Oluwole Betiku (USC), Luke Ford (Georgia) and Brandon Peters (Michigan). The jury is still certainly out on whether this method can work in big-time college football, but if it does, Smith deserves a lot of credit. Using unconventional methods can sometimes work really well in college football and for a program like Illinois, it seems worth the risk.

13. Mel Tucker, Michigan State
Record at Michigan State: 0-0
Record Overall: 5-7
Notable Accomplishments: 2 National Championships as Assistant

Mark Dantonio's decision to retire following the 2019 campaign wasn't very surprising, but the Spartans decision to bring in Mel Tucker as his replacement was. That isn't to say that Tucker is unqualified for the position, but Michigan State had to up their offer to 5.5 million per year, making him one of the better earners in the league. Tucker has a resume that includes stops in both the NFL and college, and he spent 2016-2018 as the defensive coordinator at Georgia. But, he has only spent one season in his entire career as head coach, which was this past year at Colorado. The Buffaloes didn't disappoint but they didn't really impress either, as their 5-7 record was about what most expected. Tucker's move to the Big Ten East will gain him significantly more compensation, but also significantly more pressure. We still haven't seen how Tucker runs his programs, and how well he is able to recruit. Michigan State is certainly a place that you can win at, but Tucker must do a little bit more to work his way up any coach rankings.

14. Mike Locksley, Maryland
Record at Maryland: 3-9
Record Overall: 6-40
Notable Accomplishments: Broyles Award (2018)

Maryland brought in Mike Locksley prior to 2019 for the work he had done with the Alabama offense previously, and because of his connections to the talent-rich "DMV" area (D.C., Maryland, Virginia). But, in doing so, they had to overlook his one previous coaching stop: a tenure at New Mexico, where he went 2-26. New Mexico is a tough place to win, so that shouldn't necessarily kill Locksley's career, but his one season return to College Park (interim for six games in 2015) wasn't exactly inspiring. The Terrapins started off hot before losing their final seven games. They were absolutely shelled in a couple of those games, including a 59-point drubbing by Ohio State and a 47-point loss to a Nebraska team that didn't go to a bowl game. To be fair to Locksley, he does appear to be making inroads on the recruiting trail, as he brought in a strong class during the 2020 cycle that includes five-star receiver Rakim Jarrett. He also brought in Taulia Tagovailoa over the off-season, the well-regarded younger brother of Tua. Now, Locksley has to show some tangible progress on the field. If the Terps don't even sniff a bowl game in Year Two, the pressure is already going to be on.


Monday, June 1, 2020

College Football Coach Rankings 2020: ACC

Finding the right head coach can make all the difference in college football. Nowhere was this more clear in the 2019 season than in the ACC, which saw two of the league's worst teams the year previously (Louisville & North Carolina) hire new coaches and immediately jump back into league contention. My "Coach Rankings 2020" aims to compile a definitive list of the best coaches in the sport in each Power Five league. To do this, I tried to weigh the current trajectory of the coach's program, past success at current school and former schools, as well as recruiting impact. Obviously this list is highly subjective, and there should be plenty of spirited debate about which order these coaches fall.
Dabo Swinney

1. Dabo Swinney, Clemson
Record At Clemson: 130-31 
Record Overall: 130-31
Notable Accomplishments: 2 National Titles, 6 ACC Titles, 8 ACC Atlantic Division Titles, 5 CFB Playoff Appearances

It's easy to forget the state that Clemson football was in when Dabo Swinney took over the program in 2008. They weren't terrible by any means, but hadn't won ten games in nearly two decades, and idled in mediocrity for much of Tommy Bowden's tenure. Swinney was a polarizing and relatively shocking hire at the time; he had never held a head coaching job anywhere and in fact, had never even been a coordinator at the FBS level. In the decade since then, Swinney has established Clemson into one of the sport's best programs, and continues to keep things rolling. Not only has he proven himself as an elite recruiter who young men want to play for, he really does an impressive job keeping the program stable. Few programs in the country are able to win as much as Clemson and still retain most of their coaching staff and a number of NFL Draft holdovers, including Travis Etienne this year. That's a testament to Swinney's infectious energy and influence. Just 50 years of age, I wouldn't bet this run is slowing down anytime soon.

2. Mack Brown, UNC
Record at North Carolina: 76-52-1 (second stint)
Record Overall: 251-128-1
Notable Accomplishments: College Football Hall-of-Famer, National Champion

The list of active college football coaches who have won National Titles: Nick Saban, Dabo, Jimbo Fisher, Les Miles, Ed Orgeron and... Mack Brown. Brown's lone Title came with Texas back in 2005 during the Vince Young Rose Bowl performance, but he's proven himself at countless other stops. For one, that Longhorn team in 2009 might have delayed Alabama's dominance for one more season if Colt McCoy didn't get hurt in the National Championship Game. Secondly, Brown has been instrumental to promoting and developing North Carolina's football program, which has always lagged far, far behind basketball. He inherited a terrible team during his first stint in Chapel Hill and turned them into back-to-back 10-win teams. And already in his second stint he was quickly changed the feel of a program that had slipped under Larry Fedora. The Heels improved from 2-9 to 7-6 in 2019, and even brighter things appear to be on the horizon. Sam Howell is already one of the nation's best quarterback as a true sophomore, and UNC currently has a Top 10 recruiting class in the 2021 Cycle, an indication of just how great of a recruiter Brown has become in modern college football.

3. Dave Clawson, Wake Forest
Record at Wake Forest: 36-40
Record Overall: 126-119
Notable Accomplishments: 4 Conference Titles, 4 Consecutive Bowl Appearances

Looking at Dave Clawson's numbers at face value, they don't exactly jump out at you. But, you really have to consider Clawson under the evaluation of where he's been as head coach. He began his career at Fordham before moving to Richmond, Bowling Green, and eventually Wake Forest. Moving up the ladder, Clawson has proved time and time again he knows how to build a program. His first season at Fordham they were 0-11 before going 10-3 his final year. At Richmond? 3-8 in Year One, 11-3 his final year. Bowling Green? 7-6 Year One, 10-3 his final year. At Wake, he opened up with back-to-back 3-9 seasons but has since led them to four consecutive bowl berths. That type of consistency at a school like Wake Forest, the smallest in Power Five, is pretty remarkable in modern college football. In order to do that, you must recruit and develop talent at an impressive level, while also being able to retain it, in a world where the NFL Draft and transfer portal are commonplace. He may not be at the level of a Swinney or Brown, but Clawson deserves the utmost respect. I wouldn't be shocked if another, larger P5 school comes calling soon enough.

4. Scott Satterfield, Louisville
Record at Louisville: 8-5
Record Overall: 59-29
Notable Accomplishments: 3 Conference Titles, ACC Coach of the Year (2019), Undefeated in Bowl Games

Scott Satterfield oversaw the transition of Appalachian State from the FCS ranks to FBS football, and it was quite the successful one. The Mountaineers won nine or more games his final four seasons at the helm, helping lay the groundwork for one of Group of Five's top programs. Naturally, bigger schools came calling, and Satterfield's departure to Louisville was no surprise. What was surprising, however, was his immediate success. He took over a 2-10 lifeless program in the dumps following the firing of Bobby Petrino and turned things around in quick order. The Cardinals improved their record by six games, won their bowl game, and played with an energy and motivation that was simply not there under Petrino. The key for Satterfield will be continuing that momentum; the Cardinals look especially dangerous in 2020, but the ACC Atlantic continues to bring in new coaches. If Satterfield can continue to win with the Cards, this ranking will certainly be justified, and he could possibly even slide up a spot.


5. Bronco Mendenhall, Virginia
Record at Virginia: 25-27
Record Overall: 124-70
Notable Accomplishments: 2 Conference Titles, ACC Coastal Division Title (2019)

Virginia made quite the outside-the-box hire when they brought in Bronco Mendenhall prior to the 2016 season. Mendenhall had a track record of success at BYU, but he had never coached east of the Mississippi during his career. Through four seasons, it looks like the gamble has paid off, as Mendenhall has shown consistent progress in Charlottesville, including a trip to the ACC Championship this past fall. His teams don't play a flashy brand of football, but they are consistently among the most disciplined in the nation, which really speaks to Mendenhall and the staff he has in place. Mendenhall should be eager to prove that his recent success was more about him than departed QB Bryce Perkins. Perkins was terrific in two seasons with the Cavaliers, but graduated over the off-season. If the Cavaliers can continue to stay atop the Coastal Division, Mendenhall should be a serious candidate for the conference's Coach of the Year Award in 2020.

6. David Cutcliffe, Duke
Record at Duke: 72-79
Record Overall: 116-108
Notable Accomplishments: 2-Time ACC Coach of the Year, Broyles Award Winner, AFCA Coach of the Year (2013)

I found it difficult to place David Cutcliffe on this list looking ahead to 2020. Cutcliffe's influence on the game of football can not be overstated; he coached both of the Manning brothers while they were in college, and has been credited with a lot of their success. After losing his job at Ole Miss, Cutcliffe has since moved on to a successful second act with Duke, a program with absolutely no tradition of winning football prior to his arrival. Under his guidance, the Blue Devils have gone to six bowl games and played for an ACC Championship in 2013. They've also been a surprising hotbed for NFL talent, particularly at the quarterback position, a result of Cutcliffe's past success at the position. It will be interesting to see if the well-respected coach can keep things going forward at age 65. He's still one of the better offensive minds in the game, but the new-age recruiting has presented difficulties for a coach that considers himself "old-school."

7. Pat Narduzzi, Pittsburgh
Record at Pittsburgh: 36-29
Record Overall: 36-29
Notable Accomplishments: Broyles Award Winner, ACC Coastal Division Title (2018)

Narduzzi was a long-time defensive assistant and coordinator in the Midwest before finally getting his opportunity at Pittsburgh, and he's done a fine job building the Panthers program. In five years under his leadership, Pitt has played in a bowl game four times, and won eight games on three separate occasions. The high point so far came in 2018, when the Panthers ended up winning the Coastal Division, after going 6-2 in the conference. Sure, there are plenty of Pittsburgh fans that are probably hopeful Narduzzi can deliver more than simply eight win seasons, but much like Clawson, Narduzzi's consistency is his strength. He might never lead an ACC Champion, but it's hard to imagine Pittsburgh ever slipping to the bottom of the Coastal. In a volatile college football landscape, that can be a very enviable position to be in.

8. Justin Fuente, Virginia Tech
Record at Virginia Tech: 33-20
Record Overall: 59-43
Notable Accomplishments: One Conference Title, ACC Coach of the Year (2016)

Justin Fuente should, and does, get credit for completely turning around the Memphis program prior to his arrival in Blacksburg. The Tigers had never been much of a football school prior to his hiring, and he built the foundation for one of Group of Five's premier programs before taking over at Virginia Tech in 2016. So far, Fuente's time with the Hokies has been a mixed bag; he won 19 games over his first two years, but slipped to 6-7 in Year 3 and finally, an 8-5 mark this past fall. Those are solid numbers, but people have expressed concerns about Fuente losing a curious number of players to the transfer portal, which does seem somewhat significant. Virginia Tech has also lagged behind recruiting-wise under his leadership, which is important to note. Despite this, 33-20 is certainly not a record to scoff at, and Fuente has done a fine job of weathering some of the adversity VT has faced in recent years. I'll say also: nearly any coach who took this job was going to be in for a difficult time. It isn't a crazy tough place to win, but replacing a legend like Frank Beamer is a tall order for anyone.

9. Mike Norvell, Florida State
Record at Florida State: 0-0
Record Overall: 38-15
Notable Accomplishments: One Conference Title, 3 AAC West Division Titles

A little disclaimer here for Florida State fans or others shocked to see Mike Norvell so low on this list; I firmly expect him to be significantly higher by this time next year, but I want to see him at the Power Five level before I start moving him up. There's no question Norvell did a superb job keeping the ball rolling at Memphis after Fuente left. He missed the AAC Championship Game just once during his time as head man, and he capped off his tenure by appearing in a New Year's Six Bowl (although he left for FSU prior to the bowl game). I will be interested to see whether that is able to translate to Tallahassee, where the pressure and expectations are significantly different than Memphis. He'll have to transform a culture that became very toxic under Jimbo Fisher and Willie Taggart, and while there is plenty of talent, there are also significant holes. I think Norvell will be able to do it, but it's a wait and see for me in these rankings for now.

10. Dave Doeren, NC State
Record at NC State: 47-42
Record Overall: 70-46
Notable Accomplishments: 2 Conference Titles

You can look at Dave Doeren in two ways. In one point of view, he has oversaw NC State as a program for seven years and has generally been successful. On the flip side, he hasn't ever been able to breakthrough under the Wolfpack despite plenty of talent, and has also had some bad moments, including a 3-9 debut and 4-8 record last season. That mix makes it extremely difficult to evaluate Doeren. You certainly have to be pretty savvy to last as a head coach anywhere in college football for seven seasons, and Doeren has developed some impressive talent while in Raleigh. His success at Northern Illinois previously should also not be overlooked, as he won two conference titles, and sent the Huskies to the Orange Bowl. With that being said, Doeren is another coach that could move in these rankings depending on 2020. Another losing season and he could be out of a job, and his NC State tenure could be defined by mediocrity. If he's able to turn it down in a pretty wide-open Atlantic Division behind Clemson, it could be just the spark of life the coach needs.

11. Dino Babers, Syracuse
Record at Syracuse: 23-26
Record Overall: 60-42
Notable Accomplishments: 3 Conference Titles

It took Dino Babers nearly three decades to rise up from grad assistant to a head coaching job but he has risen quickly up the ladder since then, going from Eastern Illinois to Bowling Green and now Syracuse. So far, his Syracuse tenure has been one of full of bright moments, but a tenure at a crossroads looking ahead to 2020. It looked like Babers had his first breakthrough in 2018, as the Orange won ten games and came within a hair of beating Clemson for the second straight year. However, the Orange sorely missed QB Eric Dungey last season, resulting in a slip back to 5-7. It marked three years out of four that 'Cuse has missed the postseason under Babers. The ultimate question for Babers: was the magical 2018 a flash in the pan, and more about Dungey than him? It's certainly a valid question, even if Babers had success at his previous stops. Syracuse is a really tough place to win; much like Duke and UNC, it's unquestionably a basketball school, and there just isn't a ton of talent to work with in the state of New York. But, it's now or never for Babers here, and could have an important impact on how he holds up in coach rankings.

12. Geoff Collins, Georgia Tech
Geoff Collins

Record at Georgia Tech: 3-9
Record Overall: 18-19
Notable Accomplishments: None

Geoff Collins and his tenure at Georgia Tech should be one of the more fascinating storylines in the ACC the next few years. The former Temple head coach took over when Paul Johnson retired after a decade-plus run at the helm in Atlanta, beginning a process to transform GT from the triple-option to a more traditional offense. It is a stiff challenge for any head coach, but Collins has already made waves for his impact on the recruiting trail. He brought in one of the best classes in school history this past cycle, a group that ranked 26th nationally. That momentum on the recruiting trail is going to be huge for a program that simply didn't bring in the athletes they needed for sustained success in the Coastal Division. Collins will also have to turn it into wins eventually; a favorable schedule in 2020 could set up things for a postseason run.

13. Manny Diaz, Miami
Record at Miami: 6-7
Record Overall: 6-7
Notable Accomplishments: None

Manny Diaz has had a fascinating coaching career, first beginning with Florida State as a graduate assistant in 1998-1999. He had a meteoric rise within his first decade was a fearless defensive mind, taking over the reigns of the Texas defense in 2011. After being fired from Texas, he worked hard to repair his image at stops as DC at Louisiana Tech, Mississippi State and Miami. After engineering a defensive turnaround in Coral Gables, Diaz took the Temple head coaching job, before reversing on his decision following Mark Richt's retirement, then becoming the Miami head coach. It's been a whirlwind over the past ten years for the coach, but the hope was that his comfortability with the Miami program would pay immediate dividends. However, his first season was far from charming. The Hurricanes fell under .500, lost to Florida International and their former coach Butch Davis, and then put together a terrible bowl performance in the Independence Bowl, dropping to Louisiana Tech 14-0. It certainly puts a lot of pressure on Diaz to quickly right the ship, and the hope is that a new-look offense will do just that. But, it's still hard to know exactly what to think of the 46-year-old at this point in his coaching career. He's made waves with some of the physical, turnover-hungry defenses he's created, but making the jump to head of a program is a different one entirely.

14. Jeff Hafley, Boston College
Record at Boston College: 0-0
Record Overall: 0-0
Notable Accomplishments: None

Jeff Hafley finds himself dead last in these rankings, but this is a position based solely on his lack of experience as a head coach than what I think he actually can be at Boston College. Hafley has never been a head coach anywhere at any level of football, and prior to a one-year stint on Ohio State's staff in 2019, he had been out of college coaching since 2011. The upside to Hafley is that he has coaching experience in both college and the NFL, and he played a huge role in the defensive turnaround in Columbus this past fall. He has also established himself as an elite recruiter, which has already paid dividends at Boston College. In just a few months at the helm, he's brought in two transfers, Phil Jurkovec (Notre Dame) and Jaelen Gill (Ohio State) who would rank as the highest BC "recruits" since 2005. The trajectory for both Hafley and Boston College is straight up, but there will be some growing pains along the way.