Wednesday, August 28, 2019

College Football Picks 2019: Week One

Current Picks Record: 0-0
(#11) Oregon Ducks vs. (#16) Auburn Tigers
Justin Herbert, Oregon
For the second straight year, Auburn will open up their season with the Pac-12 favorite. After beating Washington in a close one in 2018, the Tigers are hopeful they can get a huge resume booster early against the Ducks. Auburn just recently announced who will be running their offense, as true freshman Bo Nix beat out redshirt frosh Joey Gatewood for the starting job. Nix has loads of talent, but is staring down an Oregon defense that could be difficult. Not only do they have one of the nation's premier linebackers in Troy Dye, they also have a ball-hawking secondary that loves to create turnovers. I expect the Tigers to lean on the ground attack often, particularly early on in this duel. JaTarvious "Boobie" Whitlow is going to get the bulk of the carries, and will have to open up some lanes for this offense to work with. Gus Malzahn is also going to want to get Nix out and running, considering his dual threat potential. Expect a heavy dosage of read options and RPO looks to open up this offense, but some receiver is going to have to emerge for this passing game to really hit its stride. Auburn will be a tough team to move the ball on, as they feature one of the game's best front sevens. Derrick Brown, Nick Coe and Marlon Davidson are all future NFL Draft selections, and their goal in this opener is to make Oregon QB Justin Herbert uncomfortable. Herbert is already drawing Heisman attention, but starting the season against an SEC team is a whole different animal. There can be no sloppiness or early-season jitters that can usually accompany an offense built like the Ducks. Not only will Herbert have to be on the top of his game, he'll need his two-headed rushing attack to find weaknesses, as well as this inconsistent wide out group to play well. The good news is that this offense will be operating behind one of the best O-Lines in college football, who should be able to neutralize Auburn's D-Line trio. This is a tough game to pick, as Top 25 matchups early on in the season generally are. While I like Auburn's defense more than Oregon's, I like what the Ducks have offensively. Oregon is so talented this season, there is no excuse for them not to be a Pac-12 Title favorite. Now, they have to go out and prove it, which begins with a win in AT&T Stadium.
The Pick: Oregon, 28 Auburn, 21

(#2) Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Duke Blue Devils
Could Duke, a team losing Top 10 NFL Draft pick Daniel Jones, really have a chance at toppling the mighty Alabama Crimson Tide in the opener? This game got a lot more interesting when the Tide recently announced four starters were suspended for the first half in this neutral site opener. That list includes backs Najee Harris and Brian Robinson, as well as receiver DeVonta Smith and linebacker Terrell Lewis. Things got even more interesting when another star Tide 'backer, Dylan Moses, went down with a knee injury and may be out for the year. That is a very significant group of players, and it gives Duke at least a fighting chance in a game where the Tide are still favored by five touchdowns. Yet, Alabama still does have one of the premier players in college football in Tua Tagovailoa leading the show, along with a bunch of other offensive weapons. Even with a decent secondary, does Duke have the answers to stop Jerry Jeudy, Jaylen Waddle and Henry Ruggs III? At running back, the Tide are likely to turn to Keilan Robinson or redshirt freshman Jerome Ford, who has seven career carries. With two important linebackers missing all or a significant portion of this game, the Blue Devils job on offense becomes significantly easier. Without Daniel Jones, new quarterback Quentin Harris will be the feature guy running the show, but facing this 'Bama defense isn't a great introduction. He'll have to deal with a physical Tide pass rush that includes studs like Raekwon Davis and LaBryan Ray, as well as an improving secondary. Only making things more difficult for Harris is the absence of wide out Jake Bobo, who was expected to be his top guy but is now out for a long time due to a fractured clavicle. With that in mind, along with the absence of two key Alabama linebackers, the Blue Devils are going to have to find a way to get things going on the ground. Deon Jackson and Brittain Brown are rock-solid, but they won't get anything easy against Saban and this defense. The absence of a number of key Tide contributors should add some much-needed intrigue to this game, but don't expect it to change the result. Unless something crazy happens, the Tide begin their 2019 campaign with a cruising victory.
The Pick: Alabama, 49 Duke, 14

Houston Cougars @ (#4) Oklahoma
One of the best parts of the first college football is the fact the games don't end on Saturday, but extend further into Labor Day weekend. That is the case once more in 2019, and the Sunday night battle between Houston and Oklahoma is sure to have some fireworks. Between the two of them, it isn't unreasonable to think they could eclipse 100 points in this one, as these are a pair of Top 10 units. Oklahoma will unveil their new signal-caller in Alabama transfer Jalen Hurts, who will guide an offense still stocked with skill position talent. The Sooners will also trot out a 1-2 punch at running back with Kennedy Brooks and Trey Sermon, who can run through defenders and also run around. Then, on the outside, OU still has star wide out CeeDee Lamb and a number of young freshmen in Jadon Hasselwood and Trejan Bridges. That will give the Cougars defense a ton of playmakers they'll have to contain, with a unit that is already losing one of its leaders, defensive linemen Ed Oliver. All eyes will also be on the Sooners' other side of the ball, where they have to rebuild one of the nation's worst defenses. Fresh new coordinator Alex Grinch has been working with this group all summer, but they face a daunting challenge in Houston. Not only are the Cougars led by one of the nation's most underrated quarterbacks in D'Eriq King (50 TD's in 2018 despite missing two games to injury) but they have a new coach on the sidelines in Dana Holgorsen. For all the criticism Holgorsen took at times during his West Virginia tenure, there is no denying his offensive expertise. He is excellent at finding weaknesses and exploiting them, and while Grinch continues to do his best, there is still ample holes on this Sooners' D. All in all, this Sunday night battle should keep the scoreboard operators busy, and it should be competitive. Yet, the smart money here should still be on Oklahoma, even if they did lose their last meeting between these two. They have more experience and firepower on offense, while Lincoln Riley has had Holgorsen's number since taking over in Norman. The preseason Big 12 favorite survives a difficult test at home to begin the fall.
The Pick: Oklahoma, 56 Houston, 42

Other Picks
Florida Atlantic @ (#5) Ohio State: Ohio State, 49 Florida Atlantic, 21
Georgia Tech @ (#1) Clemson: Clemson, 48 Georgia Tech, 17
(#14) Utah @ BYU: Utah, 35 BYU, 24
(#3) Georgia @ Vanderbilt: Georgia, 41 Vanderbilt, 21
Upset: Northwestern, 24 Stanford, 20

Tuesday, August 27, 2019

Complete College Football Preview 2019

Full Top 25

1. Alabama Crimson Tide -- Loaded with offensive skill talent, the Tide also have the motivation factor after losing by four touchdowns to Clemson earlier this year. Nick Saban should have enough to add another trophy to his case.
2. Clemson Tigers -- A Heisman favorite at QB, a Doak Walker favorite at RB, and two All-Americans at receiver. That is astounding offensive talent, but the Tigers must focus now on reloading in their front seven.
3. Oklahoma Sooners -- The Sooners have cemented themselves as a perennial Playoff favorite, and they're loaded offensively once again. Jalen Hurts will be used differently than Kyler Murray, but still likely to success.
4. Michigan Wolverines -- With a veteran QB and deep, experienced defense, plus a home date against arch-rival Ohio State, there are no excuses for Michigan in 2019. The Wolverines cannot afford another late-season collapse.
5. Georgia Bulldogs -- The Bulldogs have come within a hair of beating Alabama the last two seasons, and once again will be hunting the Tide. Veteran quarterback Jake Fromm leads an offense with a ton of upside, while the potential on defense starts to shine through.
6. Ohio State Buckeyes -- The move away from the Urban Meyer era will be interesting to watch, but the defense returning most of its core will be a steadying force. Newly appointed starter Justin Fields will have to live up to the hype if the Buckeyes want a Playoff spot.
7. Texas Longhorns -- UT's run to end 2018 was no fluke. Tom Herman has the Longhorns thinking big this fall behind the leadership of Heisman-contending QB Sam Ehlinger. Texas must reload in their defensive front, but the dynamic secondary should keep the 'Horns sharp on both sides of the ball.
8. Utah Utes -- The reigning Pac-12 South Champ could take over the entire conference if things go right in 2019. They'll have a healthy QB and running back in Tyler Huntley and Zack Moss, along with perhaps the nation's best D-Line. This could be an interesting Playoff dark horse to keep an eye on.
9. LSU Tigers -- LSU could have the best defense in the entire country, topped off with a loaded secondary. If the offense can continue to take steps under QB Joe Burrow, the Tigers have a legitimate shot at overtaking 'Bama in the SEC West.
10. Florida Gators -- The Gators are full of momentum following a Peach Bowl domination of Michigan and a 10-win 2018. They're the biggest threats to Georgia in the rapidly improving SEC East.
11. Oregon Ducks -- Can this Ducks team overtake Washington in the Pac-12 North? Veteran quarterback Justin Hebert spurned the NFL to lead an extremely talented Oregon squad that keeps getting better.
12. Notre Dame Fighting Irish -- Even with a rough Playoff loss to Clemson, ND's 2018 was a massive success. They do have to replace some real leaders on the defense, but this roster still looks good enough to hover around 10 wins.
13. UCF Knights -- After coming close to their second straight undefeated season, UCF needs quality play from transfer QB Brandon Wimbush, as well as some more consistency defensively. If they find that they should once again roll through the American.
14. Washington Huskies -- Both sides of the ball were hit hard by the NFL and graduation, but Washington has cemented themselves as consistent power on the West Coast. They should be able to reload, particularly if new QB Jacob Eason learns quickly.
15. Texas A&M -- The Aggies ended 2018 on a tear, and have most of their key offensive pieces back, minus Trayveon Williams. Granted, A&M will face perhaps the toughest schedule in FBS football, which is why I have them lower than most.
16. Syracuse Orange -- Last year's breakthrough was just the beginning for Dino Babers at Syracuse. The Orange return their entire secondary to what will be a strong defense, while the offense should still in good hands under new signal-caller Tommy DeVito.
17. Penn State Nittany Lions -- With so much youth on their offense, it's hard to imagine PSU overtaking Ohio State or Michigan in their division. With that being said, their defense is good enough to keep them in the race.
18. Auburn Tigers -- Can true freshman Bo Nix handle the reigns of the Auburn offense? The Tigers will need him to play well to keep their head above the water in the SEC, although a stacked D-Line should also be a major help.
19. Stanford Cardinal -- One of the nation's most consistent winners must rediscover their ground attack in order to keep up with the North Division favorites. Senior QB K.J. Costello gives them one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country.
20. Army Black Knights -- Kelvin Hopkins Jr. returns to lead the triple-option, while the Army defenses back its mainstays in Elijah Riley and Jaylon McClinton in back. A favorable schedule makes the Black Knights extra dangerous.
21. Nebraska Cornhuskers -- All signs point to a breakout campaign from Scott Frost in Year Two, particularly with the growth of Adrian Martinez at quarterback. However, the defense will be key in any big leap in 2019, as it was a problem throughout all of last season.
22. Wisconsin Badgers -- Coming off a disappointing 2018, Wisconsin should feel great that Doak Walker Award winner Jonathan Taylor is back. The thing is, he'll have to do even more in 2019, as the Badgers break in a new QB and must fix holes across the defense.
23. Virginia Cavaliers -- Bronco Mendenhall has a suffocating defense fueled by the nation's best cornerback in Bryce Hall. On the other side, another Bryce (Perkins) should provide the legs for an ACC Coastal run in Charlottesville.
24. Miami Hurricanes -- First-year head coach Manny Diaz brings back most of the defense he coached the last few seasons, but the offense is the real X-factor. Jaren Williams was recently named starting QB over Ohio State transfer Tate Martell, providing even more intrigue to this unit.
25. Oklahoma State Cowboys -- Blessed with the return of stars at the skill positions, in wide out Tylan Wallace and back Chuba Hubbard, Cowboys look like the biggest challenge to another OU-Texas Big 12 Championship Game.

Just Missed The Cut
Michigan State Spartans
Boise State Broncos
Memphis Tigers
Iowa State Cyclones
Mississippi State Bulldogs

Conference Predictions
ACC: Clemson over Virginia
American: UCF over Memphis
Big Ten: Michigan over Nebraska
Big 12: Oklahoma over Texas
Conference USA: North Texas over Florida International
MAC: Ohio over Western Michigan
Mountain West: Boise State over Fresno State
Pac-12: Utah over Oregon
SEC: Alabama over Georgia
Sun Belt: Appalachian State over Arkansas State

Award Projections
Jerry Jeudy, Alabama
Davey O'Brien (best QB): Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson
Doak Walker Award (best RB): Jonathan Taylor, RB, Wisconsin
Biletnikoff Award (best WR): Jerry Jeudy, WR, Alabama
John Mackey Award (best TE): Albert Okwuegbunam, TE, Missouri
Butkus Award (best LB): Joe Bachie, LB, Michigan State
Jim Thorpe Award (best DB): Bryce Hall, CB, Virginia
Bednarik Award (Defensive Player of the Year): Grant Delpit, S, LSU
Home Depot Coach of the Year: Kyle Whittingham, Utah

Heisman Projections
Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson (finalist)
D'Eriq King, QB, Houston (finalist)
Sam Ehlinger, QB, Texas (finalist, winner)
Eno Benjamin, RB, Arizona State (finalist)


Playoff Predictions
1 Alabama Crimson Tide over 4 Michigan Wolverines
2 Clemson Tigers over 3 Oklahoma Sooners
National Championship: 1 Alabama Crimson Tide over 2 Clemson Tigers

College Football Preview 2019: Breaking Down the Big 12

Brock Purdy, Iowa State
2018 In Review: Even with a loss to Red River rival Texas and a number of close calls, Oklahoma once again proved they were the class of the Big 12, winning their fourth straight conference title. They also produced their second straight Heisman winner and made their second consecutive Playoff appearance, proving they are one of the top programs in the entire country. Texas followed them up with a second place finish in the league, putting together their best season in a decade. The Longhorns not only beat the Sooners in their regular season battle, they made the Big 12 Championship and dominated Georgia in the Sugar Bowl. It is unclear at this point whether UT is "back", but they certainly have re-emerged as a Big 12 Title threat under head coach Tom Herman. Finishing up behind the Red River schools were rising Iowa State and West Virginia, who both went 6-3 in the conference. At the bottom, Kansas once again faltered to last place in the Big 12, although they did manage to steal away a conference victory from an injury-plagued TCU team to go 1-8 in conference action.

Power Rankings

1. Oklahoma Sooners (National Rank: 3)
Strengths: Even without the reigning Heisman winner, Oklahoma should be scary good offensively. They bring in the biggest name of the transfer portal in Jalen Hurts and surround the former Alabama QB with a ton of stars at the skill positions. Kennedy Brooks and Trey Sermon are a potent 1-2 punch at running back, while CeeDee Lamb leads the receivers... The defense was atrocious last fall, but nine starters return under the guidance of new DC Alex Grinch. There has to be at least some improvement, as Kenneth Murray and a host of defensive backs are a great starting point entering 2019... There are no Ohio States on the non-conference slate for Oklahoma this season, which should be huge going forward. Houston and UCLA could be sneaky good, but the Sooners should still be pretty heavy favorites in both those games, setting them up as undefeated leading into conference play.
Weaknesses: The defense has to get better, or a fifth straight league title is completely out of the question. This was the worst pass defense in the entire nation a year ago, so there is ample room for improvement... The offensive line was among the best in the entire country in 2018, but loses four starters. Jalen Hurts was used to playing behind stacked O-Lines in Tuscaloosca, so there could be some questions here. Center Creed Humphrey will have to be the anchor, as the lone returnee... The Big 12 is a wacky league, and the conference schedule could have some trap games. The Sooners have to go to Dallas to square off against Texas, while also getting road treks against Baylor and Oklahoma State, two upset-minded programs traditionally.
Projected Record: 12-1 (8-1 Big 12, Win Big 12 Championship Game)

2. Texas Longhorns (National Rank: 7)
Strengths: Sam Ehlinger is the best Texas QB since Colt McCoy was in town over a decade ago. Ehlinger recorded 41 total touchdowns in 2018, playing with a passion and ferocity this offense needed numerous times. A strong showing in their big non-conference matchup with LSU could launch his Heisman candidacy... This offense is full of large, physical playmakers that aren't easy to find in this league. Senior receiver Collin Johnson is a matchup nightmare on the outside, while senior Devin Duvernay should exploit gaps in the middle. Add in powerful tailback Keontay Ingram, this offense doesn't look like a typical Big 12 unit, but it should still be effective... DC Todd Orlando loves to run five defensive back sets, and the 'Horns have a ton of talent back there. Sophomore safety Caden Sterns is already on his way to being a superstar, but don't overlook senior Brandon Jones nor sophomore nickelback B.J. Foster.
Weaknesses: The entire front seven was gutted by graduations and other departures. Linebackers Gary Johnson and Anthony Wheeler are both, leaving 177 tackles that need to be replaced, while Charles Omenihu is also absent after managing 9.5 sacks in 2018... Lil'Jordan Humphrey is a bigger loss at receiver than most would realize. As the Longhorns' leading receiver a year ago, he played a major role in making all sorts of contested catches for this offense... How does UT handle their transition back into being the "hunted" of college football? This program always has a lot of pressure on it, but the stakes will get even higher after a successful 2018. Can they handle all the new expectations?
Projected Record: 11-2 (8-1 Big 12, Lose in Big 12 Championship Game)

3. Oklahoma State Cowboys (National Rank: 25)
Strengths: Even with a new offensive play-caller in Sean Gleeson, Oklahoma State should be explosive as usual on offense. They have a Biletnikoff Award finalist at wide out and a rising star in Chuba Hubbard at running back, now it is just about finding their quarterback... Despite coming in at 118th in pass defense last fall, the secondary should be a strength this season. Senior corner A.J. Green is going to be shutdown once more, while junior safety Malcolm Rodriguez is their top returning tackler... Having a consistent placekicker is a real luxury in college football, and OSU has that in senior Matt Ammendola. He enters 2019 sixth on the NCAA's active scorer list and went 16 of 22 on field goals in '18.
Weaknesses: Neither quarterback has grabbed the reigns of the offense so far. Redshirt freshman Spencer Sanders looked like the presumed starter following the spring, but former Hawaii transfer Dru Brown has pushed him. Either QB could put up huge numbers in this offense, but the fact neither has emerged is relatively concerning... Nearly the entire D-Line will have to be retooled, as all four starters depart. Senior end Mike Scott is a solid starting point, but a number of transfers are going to have to step up, such as Kyle Junior and JUCO newcomer Sione Asi... Can the Cowboys get better at closing games out in 2019? They lost four of their six losses by just a total of 18 points, including a one-point loss to Oklahoma and a four-point loss to Baylor. Unless they can, contending in the Big 12 is going to be tall order.
Projected Record: 8-4 (5-4 Big 12)

4. Iowa State Cyclones
Strengths: This looks like the best defense in the Big 12, and it isn't super close right now. Seven starters return to the nation's 33rd defense in terms of total yardage, including most of their front seven. Senior defensive end JaQuan Bailey should build on an eight sack campaign last year, while sophomore linebacker Mike Rose will be a real leader in the middle... Quarterback Brock Purdy came on and went 7-2 as a starter as a true freshman and is now back in Ames. He looked like a seasoned vet, notching 2,250 yards and 16 touchdowns, while also adding five with his legs. He could come in as the third best QB in the conference right now, likely only behind Hurts and Ehlinger... Is this the year Iowa State is finally able to take down their in-state rivals under the leadership of Matt Campbell? Following a 13-3 loss last season, ISU gets the Hawkeyes at home, with the chance to get a huge non-conference victory in mid-September. A win could set them up nicely for a pretty soft start to league action.
Weaknesses: Running back David Montgomery and receiver Hakeem Butler were two of the top playmakers on this offense last season, but both went pro. Montgomery is an especially huge loss because there is no obvious replacement waiting behind him to replicate his 1,216 yards. Junior Kene Nwangwu or true freshman Jirehl Brock are likely to get most of the carries right away... While Purdy energized this offense a season ago, it still struggles with consistency. A poor showing against Texas and a close win over FCS foe Drake showed ISU still has plenty of room for improvement on that side of the ball. The hope is that Purdy will mature quickly in Year Two... The Cyclones' late October, early November stretch will decide whether they are in the mix for a Big 12 Title. They will get Oklahoma State, Oklahoma and Texas all in a row, with OSU on the road. If they can even get two out of those three as victories, they could get a chance at the conference championship game.
Projected Record: 8-4 (5-4 Big 12)

5. TCU Horned Frogs
Strengths: Gary Patterson rarely, if ever, has two straight down seasons in Fort Worth. After an injury-plagued 2018 where his Horned Frogs dropped to 7-6 overall and sub-.500 in the conference, you just get a feeling TCU is going to be back in a big way in 2019... The defense is going to be very strong, even as six starters depart. Junior linebacker Garrett Wallow is the leading returning tackler, while corner Jeff Gladney and senior safety Innis Gaines patrol the back-end. This team allowed just 338.2 YPG in 2018, which was by far the best in the league.... There is plenty of talent at the skill positions, namely receiver Jalen Reagor and back Darius Anderson. Reagor had over 1,000 yards last season and remains a dangerous threat, while Anderson forms a 1-2 combo in the backfield with Sewo Olonilua.
Weaknesses: Quarterback is a major concern going into fall camp. Kansas State transfer Alex Delton seems like the favorite, but true freshman Max Duggan and redshirt freshman Justin Rogers will also figure into the race. Delton has played a lot of Big 12 football, but Duggan and Rogers both offer more upside at the position... TCU was so beat up in the spring they didn't even have a spring game, in order to get their players 100 percent for the fall. The hope is that they will be ready to go, but it isn't unreasonable to be worried about what their depth chart will look like to begin the season. At least they get an easy September slate to get further rest... Even with the return of future NFL Draft selection Lucas Niang at right tackle, TCU still has some questions on the O-Line. Senior Anthony McKinney seems to be locked in at LT, but they need to figure out the interior of this unit.
Projected Record: 8-4 (5-4 Big 12)

6. Baylor Bears
Strengths: The aerial attack really looked like the real deal in 2018, with veteran QB Charlie Brewer leading the way. The Bears finished 19th nationally, with 290 yards per game, despite playing in a Matt Rhule offense that was supposed to be about balance. Brewer returns, and could have a huge junior season in Waco... Baylor wants to get even more explosive on the perimeter, as they averaged just 5.2 yards per play on first downs, 111th in the nation. The return of combo Denzel Mims and Chris Platt should ensure the Bears are able to attack and stretch defenses vertically... The front seven could be a notable strength. Junior end James Lynch looks like an All-Big 12 guy, while veteran Clay Johnston is a tackling machine at linebacker.
Weaknesses: Even with notable talent, the Bears struggled to contain big plays last fall. They also struggled to create turnovers, coming in at -9 on the season, 118th nationally. That is a key area of improvement heading into 2019... Who is this team's feature back heading into the new year? They have a stable of guys who have experience, but nobody jumps out at you. That is pretty surprising, considering Matt Rhule's long-time affinity for the run... The secondary has potential, but is still porous with holes. Neither cornerback spot has a clear-cut starter, while senior Chris Miller is going to have to play a major role at safety.
Projected Record: 6-6 (3-6 Big 12)

7. Texas Tech Red Raiders
Strengths: If not for ill health, sophomore QB Alan Bowman probably would have been one of the breakout stars of the 2018 college football season. He recorded 2,638 yards on the season, despite missing four games due to an injured lung. Now 100 percent, he could have a huge season, particularly with T.J. Vasher back... The Red Raiders have an underrated D-Line, as junior end Eli Howard and senior tackle Broderick Washington play an interesting role. New defensive coordinator Keith Patterson came with head coach Matt Wells from Utah State and will be sure to lean on that veteran edge early... Four starters return to an offensive line that was decent last season, but could still get better. Having both tackles back is a major win if the Red Raiders want to keep Bowman upright.
Weaknesses: Having the uber-athletic T.J. Vasher back at receiver is a big win, but Texas Tech loses over 2,000 yards of receiving in Antoine Wesley and Ja'Deion High. Vasher (687 yards, seven scores) needs to be even more important to this offense... If not for Oklahoma, Tech would have had the worst pass defense in the entire country last fall. They surrendered 288.3 YPG, and now lose three starters. That is the biggest question mark on the entire team entering 2019... Getting Oklahoma and Texas both on the road is tough for this team and Wells in his first year. This is the type of sneaky team that could knock off a giant in this league, but it doing that on the road seems unrealistic.
Projected Record: 6-6 (3-6 Big 12)

8. Kansas State Wildcats
Strengths: There is no question who is running the offense, as Skylar Thompson solidified himself as the quarterback in 2018. He offers significant potential, with the ability to be a dual threat, if need be. He'll have to play an even more crucial role as Kansas State breaks in a new feature back... Chris Klieman wants to play a physical brand of football, and he has three starters back on the offensive line to impose their will on defenses. Senior left tackle Scott Frantz has All-Big 12 talent, and should be the real anchor up front... Kansas State is strong along the other trench as well, as they return nearly all their defensive line. Senior Reggie Walker is vastly underrated, managing 7.5 sacks a year ago, but they'll need somebody else to step up. The secondary could have some problems, so creating chaos on the line will be the difference for this defense.
Weaknesses: Alex Barnes is gone at running back after rushing for 1,355 yards and 12 touchdowns. The Wildcats now have to hope Ball State transfer James Gilbert can acclimate well to the Big 12. It is certainly a step-up, although he was very productive during is time with the Cardinals... Going on the road against Mississippi State could add another loss to a schedule that is already short on wins. Even though the Bulldogs are reloading in some places, they did beat K-State by three touchdowns last fall... The Wildcats were 91st in the nation against the pass in 2018, although amazingly, that was fourth in the league. They are going to have to readjust with some losses back there, namely safety Duke Shelley.
Projected Record: 4-8 (2-7 Big 12)

9. West Virginia Mountaineers
Strengths: Neal Brown may end up being an upgrade over Dana Holgorsen at head coach. While Holgorsen got huge money from Houston, he could never really get West Virginia over the top. While Brown will need some time in Morgantown to get things sorted out, this could work out better in the long-term... The offensive line has two staples in tackle Colton McKivitz and guard Josh Sills, both experienced vets. McKivitz has 35 career starts, while Sills has 22 in his Mountaineer career. They are going to lead a unit that will need to gel quickly, as three starters depart... Brown loves to run the ball, and he has a backfield to do just that. Senior Kennedy McKoy is a proven weapon against Big 12 defenses, while sophomore Leddie Brown seems to be ready for a breakout.
Weaknesses: Will Grier finished fourth in Heisman voting, but is now in the NFL. Austin Kendall was a big off-season transfer from Oklahoma, but we really haven't seen much of him in his collegiate career. Another former transfer, Miami's Jack Allison, also figures to compete for the starting QB gig... Only hurting WVU's aerial attack further is the loss of their top two targets, David Sills V and Gary Jennings. Sills was a touchdown machine during his time with West Virginia, while Jennings was a big play threat. Things were further hit when Marcus Simms announced he was entering the NFL's Supplemental Draft... The defense loses a ton of leadership to a group that was mediocre last year. Top sack-getter and tackler David Long is gone, as is a number of key pieces from the secondary.
Projected Record: 4-8 (2-7 Big 12)

10. Kansas Jayhawks
Strengths: Do not overlook the running backs in Lawrence. Pooka Williams Jr. put together a monster freshman campaign, with 1,125 yards and seven scores. Behind him, sturdy senior Khalil Herbert added 499 and five scores. While off-season trouble will cause Williams to be suspended for the opener, this could be a potent 1-2 tandem the rest of the way... The defensive backfield is very strong, led by some legit All-Conference players. Senior corner Hasan Defense will once again be a crucial element, and both safety spots are in good hands... The schedule actually sets up nicely for the Jayhawks. They get two extremely winnable games in the non-conference against Coastal Carolina and Indiana State, and the best chances for league wins come all at home. That includes West Virginia, Texas Tech and Kansas State.
Weaknesses: The Jayhawks will be breaking in a retread in head coach in Les Miles. Miles is ready to pump some energy into the program, but its hard to see an old-school coach taking this type of job and turning it around, particularly in the modern Big 12. He should be able to get some wins on the recruiting trail, which has not been the case in the past... The quarterback position is once again a problem. Junior college transfer Thomas MacVittie seems to make a lot of sense as the fresh newcomer, but vet Carter Stanley is still around, and is their top returning passer... Nearly the entire front seven is gone, which could spell disaster for a team that is eighth in the conference in defending the run. Four-star signee Steven Parker may be asked to see valuable snaps right away as one of the lone remaining playmakers in that front.
Projected Record: 2-10 (0-9 Big 12)

Monday, August 26, 2019

College Football Preview 2019: Breaking Down the Big Ten

Adrian Martinez, Nebraska
2018 In Review: (East) Riding a 10-game win streak and undefeated in the conference, Michigan entered the Ohio State game as a Playoff contender and the favorite in the Big Ten. Things unraveled quickly, as they allowed 62 points to Dwayne Haskins and the Buckeyes, allowing OSU to take over the division despite some serious defensive issues. Behind them, Penn State and Michigan State struggled to keep pace due to injuries, while Rutgers dropped to the cellar once again.
  (West) With preseason favorite Wisconsin struggling, the Big Ten West was wide open for much of 2018. While the Badgers remained in the hunt, Northwestern quickly emerged as the team to beat. Despite a non-conference slate that included losses to Duke and Akron, the Wildcats ended up going 8-1, topping Wisconsin and Iowa to lock down the division. Near the bottom, both Nebraska and Minnesota had early struggles, ending up 3-6 in the conference. Yet, both ended the year flaming hot and have significant momentum entering 2019.


Power Rankings
East Division

1. Michigan Wolverines (National Rank: 4)
Strengths:
Weaknesses:
Projected Record:

2. Ohio State Buckeyes (National Rank: 6)
Strengths: No longer splitting carries with the departed Mike Weber, J.K. Dobbins should have a monster junior season at running back. Dobbins' is much more explosive than Webber and seemed to just be scratching the surface of his vast potential his first two years in Columbus... Despite some of the struggles the Buckeye defense suffered through in 2018, it is a group with loads of talent. Nine starters are returning, including a number of All-American possibilities, namely end Chase Young. Nearly every key piece returns in the secondary, which will need to play better in '19 after finishing 11th in the conference in pass defense... Losing a first-round NFL Draft pick who threw for 50 touchdowns at QB is a tall order, but OSU feels confident in former five-star recruit Justin Fields. Fields never saw much action at Georgia, but there is no denying he has superstar potential.
Weaknesses: Ryan Day is an accomplished coach who was a logical choice for the program once Urban Meyer announced his retirement. Yet, replacing such a legendary head coach is going to obviously take a transition period and Day will have lofty expectations no matter what... The offensive line has some serious holes, forced to replace four starters. Junior left tackle Thayer Munford is the lone holdover, although youngster Nicholas Petit-Frere could improve rapidly... There are a number of tough road trips on this schedule. The Buckeyes have to go on the road against Nebraska, Northwestern and Michigan. They are good enough to win at least two of those games, but an undefeated campaign would be an awfully tall order.
Projected Record: 11-1 (8-1 Big Ten)

3. Penn State Nittany Lions (National Rank: 17)
Strengths: The Nittany Lions have real stars on this defense, namely defensive end Yetur Gross-Matos and linebacker Micah Parsons. Gross-Matos had eight sacks last fall and seems to only be getting better, while Parsons is the next great linebacker to pass through State College... While PSU loses their QB and running back, both positions offer loads of potential. Sean Clifford has impressed the coaching staff at QB, while sophomore Ricky Slade could be even better than the departed Miles Sanders by the end of the year... Sophomore K.J. Hamler emerged as a bonafide No. 1 receiver in 2018, and should have a huge season. The Nittany Lions would feel even better about their group of wide outs if redshirt freshman Justin Shorter could break out. Shorter came in as a highly touted receiver, but couldn't stay healthy last year.
Weaknesses: Trace McSorley was the winningest QB in the school's storied history, and replacing him won't be easy. While Clifford has talent, he isn't the leader that McSorley was, at least not just yet... The secondary should be strong, but must stay healthy. Senior corner John Reid looks finally 100 percent, but fill need to stay that way as the new No. 1 CB. He has to replace the production of All-Big Ten Amani Oruwariye... A very tough October stretch will determine whether this Nittany Lions team is a pretender, or contender. They get Purdue at home, Iowa on the road, Michigan back in Pennsylvania, and then go on the road against Michigan State.
Projected Record: 9-3 (6-3 Big Ten)

4. Michigan State Spartans
Brian Lewerke, Michigan State

Strengths: This is one of the toughest defenses in the country, well-coached and experienced. There are a total of eight starters returning from a group that was eighth in the country in scoring defense and had the best rush defense. Senior end Kenny Willekes and linebacker Joe Bachie are surefire All-Conference players... The hope is that QB Brian Lewerke is 100 percent and ready to go for 2019. Lewerke was very strong in his sophomore season but struggled to stay healthy last fall, resulting in a terrible MSU offense. If he can regain his 2017 form, this Spartans offense will take a major step forward... Nearly every important contributor to the offensive line is back in the fold this year. Junior center Matt Allen is an absolute force in the middle, while left tackle Cole Chewins plays a crucial role in keeping Lewerke afloat.
Weaknesses: Once the clear strength of the offense, MSU's ground game lacked much bite in 2018. Junior Conner Heyward has talent, and will be operating behind a physical O-Line, but will still need to show that he can be the workhorse back the Spartans have long needed... Felton Davis is a bigger loss to this offense than some may give him credit for. Despite placing third on the roster in receiving yards, Davis was 6'4" and a dangerous red zone presence. Even with Cody White and Darrell Stewart Jr. back, the Spartans will feel his absence... Justin Layne and Khari Willis are both gone from the secondary, leaving two notable holes that need to assessed. Josiah Scott and David Dowell should keep the unit from completely falling apart, but Willis was an All-Big Ten player, while Layne could do everything.
Projected Record: 8-4 (5-4 Big Ten)

5. Maryland Terrapins
Strengths: The Terrapins boast one of the nation's most underrated running backs in Anthony McFarland, who had 1,034 yards in 2018, while averaging nearly eight yards per rush. Now the clear No. 1 guy with Ty Johnson absent, expect a monster sophomore campaign from McFarland... Maryland got uneven quarterback play last season and while Kasim Hill choose to transfer, things could be improved at the position. That is because of the arrival of Virginia Tech transfer Josh Jackson, who seems to be a great fit in new head coach Mike Locksley's offense. Jackson has size, instincts and mobility, which should do some serious damage if used correctly... One of the most versatile defenders in college football is nickelback Antoine Brooks Jr., who was All-Conference with 9.5 TFL and 68 tackles. He will need to be especially strong in 2019, as the Terps lose a lot in their secondary.
Weaknesses: There is no obvious No. 1 option for Josh Jackson to throw to. Sophomore Jeshaun Jones flashed serious potential as a youngster last fall but is not your prototypical top receiver. Behind him, D.J. Turner and Dontay Demus are going to have to step up, as Maryland will sorely miss Taivon Jacobs... Linebacker Tre Watson was huge for this defense in 2018 and he is now gone. Watson, a former Illinois transfer, led the team in tackles with 114 while also picking off five passes. The fact Maryland added Ohio State transfer Keandre Jones is huge, but Watson is still going to leave a major void in the middle... While Maryland will not play Texas this year, the non-conference slate is no breeze, which is always concerning in the loaded Big Ten East. Syracuse at home will be a tough task in early September, while a road trek to Temple could be a trap game.
Projected Record: 6-6 (4-5 Big Ten)

6. Indiana Hoosiers
Strengths: Indiana has quietly become a machine for churning out star running backs, with sophomore Stevie Scott the next in line. Scott had 1,137 yards in 2018 and continues to get better and better. He may be among the most underrated playmakers in the league... New offensive coordinator Kalen DeBeor did a great job with the offense this past season at Fresno State. He has a veteran quarterback to work with in Peyton Ramsey, along with a ton of weapons at receiver. This offense could be the strongest it has been in some time... A manageable non-conference slate puts the Hoosiers in a good spot to make a bowl after a two-year hiatus. They will need just three Big Ten wins and get both Michigan and Ohio State at home.
Weaknesses: Even though Tom Allen's pedigree is the defense, this group was not great last season. They were tenth in the Big Ten in nearly every defensive category, with the exception being the total defense, which was 11th. Can the return of eight starters change the narrative in Bloomington?... There is no real star on the defense and Indiana loses their top two tacklers. Veterans like Marcelino Ball, who will play the "Husky" position will need to step up in a big way... While Peyton Ramsey has experience, Michael Penix Jr. seemed prime to steal the starting QB job before being lost to injury. It won't be unreasonable for Allen and DeBeor to see what Penix can do at the position.
Projected Record: 4-8 (1-8 Big Ten)

7. Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Strengths: Running back Raheem Blackshear was a bright spot on this offense last year, becoming the first Rutgers player in over three decades to lead the team in both rushing and receiving. He is going to be leaned on heavily throughout the 2019 campaign... Rutgers has long done a good job developing defensive backs and that could be strength of this roster. Senior corner Damon Hayes is probably their best defender, while sophomore Avery Young has a lot of upside. This team was 19th in total pass defense in '18... Center Michael Maietti has been a staple for this offensive line during his Rutgers career. He started all 12 games as a redshirt sophomore last season and looks like a real anchor in the middle.
Weaknesses: This was was the worst Power Five team in college football a year ago, and it wasn't really close. The Scarlet Knights were beat by 41 points by Kansas, one of the worst programs FBS football has to offer... Their quarterback play was atrocious and I'm not sure it can get much better. Sophomore Arthur Sitkowski was a big-name recruit but he was not ready for the show in 2018, throwing just four touchdowns to 18 interceptions... There is just not Big Ten depth on this roster at any position group. Right now, Rutgers is battling MAC schools to compete in one of the most balanced leagues in college football. They just aren't even close to most in this division at the moment.
Projected Record: 1-11 (0-9 Big Ten)

West Division

1. Nebraska Cornhuskers (National Rank: 21)
Strengths: Sophomore quarterback Adrian Martinez looked like a future star in this offense last season. His big arm and ability to scramble are an ideal fit in Scott Frost's wide-open offense and you saw him start to turn a corner late in 2018. He is a legitimate Heisman threat if he can continue to build... The defense was the big problem last year but there is a ton of talent back in Lincoln. Senior linebacker Mohamed Barry is their heart and soul on that side of the ball, but they need to get more pressure on opposing quarterbacks... Junior J.D. Spielman and sophomore Kade Warner lead an intriguing group of wide outs. Spielman was third team All-Big Ten and will do even more damage if Frost can find more creative ways to get him the ball.
Weaknesses: Expecting a 4-8 team to make the jump to West Division champ is a lot to ask. With that being said, Nebraska lost a ton of close games (Colorado, Troy, Northwestern, Iowa) which they should do a better job of closing out this fall... The running back situation is not ideal heading into the opener. Former Georgia Tech transfer Dedrick Mills is now one of the few options, as both Maurice Washington and freshman Wan'Dale Robinson have ongoing legal problems... It won't be easy to replace linebacker Luke Gifford, who led the team in tackles for loss and sacks. That puts more pressure on Barry to continue making plays all over the field, but the linebackers behind Gifford aren't terrible options.
Projected Record: 9-4 (7-2 Big Ten, Lose in Big Ten Championship)

2. Wisconsin Badgers (National Rank: 22)
Strengths: One of the best running backs in the country, Jonathan Taylor, returns to Madison. Taylor won the Doak Walker Award for his play in 2018 and continues to be the guiding force for this Badger offense... The receiver group is one of the strongest it has been in awhile, with Danny Davis, A.J. Taylor and Kendric Pryor leading the way. There is also a chance formerly dismissed Quintez Cephus could be let back on the team, which would make a huge difference... The defense reloads incredibly well and they could have a very strong secondary. Sophomore safety Scott Nelson is a gritty, Midwestern-style player, while Chris Orr and Zack Baun should keep the linebacker unit a strength.
Weaknesses: The constant question for this program for a long time: quarterback. Alex Hornibrook decided to transfer, meaning that Jack Coan and Graham Mertz are the two battling it out. Coan is likely going to start the year considering the experience he gained a year ago, but Mertz has the hype as a big-name prospect... The offensive line does a great job reloading, but replacing four starters is still no easy task. Junior center Tyler Biadasz is going to have to be a big leader for this group... Special teams is typically not a big problem for the Badgers, but it was last season. Kicking and punting was both bad and there isn't much experience at either spot entering 2019.
Projected Record: 8-4 (5-4 Big Ten)

3. Northwestern Wildcats 
Strengths: This team just plays hard under head coach Pat Fitzgerald and they are a team nobody likes to face. That has gone a long way in building a physical, hard-nosed identity that helped the Wildcats win this division a year ago... Even though long-time starter Clayton Thorson is gone, the Wildcats still look incredibly strong a the quarterback spot. That's because of the arrival of Clemson transplant Hunter Johnson, a former four-star recruit. Johnson has a ton of talent, and a decent crop of playmakers back to help him... Junior middle linebacker Paddy Fisher is one of the best in the business, part of a very good front seven. Fisher and fellow linebacker Blake Gallagher both topped 100 tackles in 2018 and will keep the Wildcat defense incredibly stingy.
Weaknesses: Northwestern did not defend the pass well last season, coming in 12th in the league. To make matters worse, they lose three starters on the back-end. D-Coordinator Mike Hankwitz is going to have to think of something creative to hide the problems in the secondary... Another team with questions on the offensive front. They are replacing three starters and this group wasn't always terrific last year... Is Isaiah Bowser ready to lead the rushing attack? They were dead last in the Big Ten in rushing due to the retirement of Jeremy Larkin before Bowser came on at the end. He has plenty of talent, but will need the O-Line to help out too.
Projected Record: 7-5 (5-4 Big Ten)

4. Minnesota Gophers 
Strengths: Minnesota ended their 2018 on a tear, winning three of their last four and stealing back the Axe from arch-rival Wisconsin. This gives the program some real momentum entering P.J. Fleck's third year and the young talent appears to be growing quickly... This is the strongest the Gophers have been at the skill positions (with the exception of QB) in a long time. Senior receiver Tyler Johnson and senior running back Rodney Smith are already established stars, although Smith missed most of last season. Then, there is the young talent, such as sophomore Rashod Bateman and powerful tailback Mohamed Ibrahim just waiting to burst through... Minnesota came in seventh in the conference in pass defense in 2018 and could be very solid there this upcoming season. Junior Coney Durr is a proven corner, while the hope is that safety Antoine Winfield Jr. can finally stay healthy. Winfield Jr. may be the most talented defender on the entire team but has dealt with nagging injuries throughout his time in the Twin Cities.
Weaknesses: Quarterback play is a clear concern. Tanner Morgan split time with Zach Annexstad last fall but now is the clear-cut guy after Annexstad was ruled out indefinitely during fall camp. Can Morgan build on some late-season success? He doesn't have to be anything too special for this offense to continue to improve... The defense played with a ton of energy after Joe Rossi was promoted to defensive coordinator. Can it play that way over the course of a three-month season? It will have to if Minnesota wants any chance at contending in the tricky West... Even though the non-conference schedule does not include any Power Five opponents, it includes a number of sneaky Group of Five teams that could trip this team up. A road trip to Fresno State is particularly concerning, as the Bulldogs nearly beat them in Minneapolis a year ago.
Projected Record: 7-5 (4-5 Big Ten)

5. Iowa Hawkeyes
Strengths: Having a veteran quarterback is an obvious luxury in the competitive Big Ten West, and Iowa has just that in Nate Stanley. Stanley recorded 2,852 yards and 26 touchdowns in 2018, although cutting down on his turnovers will be the goal this upcoming fall... Junior defensive end A.J. Epenesa didn't even start a year ago and still managed to lead the Hawkeyes in sacks, totaling 10.5 in total. Epenesa is now going to start, and the future high NFL Draft selection is without a doubt one of the top defenders in the entire nation... Speaking of future NFL Draft picks, Iowa has two on the offensive line, with Alaric Jackson and Tristian Wirfs. Jackson has been a starter at left tackle the past two seasons, while Wirfs is a brick wall at the other tackle spot.
Weaknesses: How does Iowa replace two stud tight ends, including John Mackey Award winner T.J. Hockenson? The tight end position is always crucial in this offense under Kirk Ferentz and the hope is that either junior Shaun Beyer or senior Nate Weiting can step up... While the Hawkeyes do return Epenesa up front, there is still a lot of other spots up for grab in the front seven. In total, six starters depart to a defense that was awfully strong, but not necessarily very deep in 2018... The schedule is very difficult, with a ton of very concerning road treks. Not only does Iowa get their in-state rival Iowa State in Ames, they also get cross-division meetings against Michigan in Ann Arbor and Penn State at home. Even with a ton of talent and experience, that schedule could restrict this team from reaching their full potential.
Projected Record: 6-6 (4-5 Big Ten)

6. Purdue Boilermakers
Strengths: Even with his alma mater aggressively trying to poach him, Jeff Brohm decided to sign a contract extension to stay in West Lafayette for the long term. That is a huge win for this program, and Brohm continued the momentum by signing one of the top recruiting classes in school history. It will be fun to watch to see what he can do with the elevated talent level... They don't get much better than sophomore Rondale Moore, one of the most versatile playmakers anywhere in the country. Moore put up totals of 1,258 receiving yards and 213 rushing yards, while adding 14 total touchdowns. He single-handedly beat Ohio State and became a serious Heisman Trophy candidate, and it should be thrilling to see what he does for an encore... Nine starters return to a defense that didn't up great numbers in 2018 but has potential. Senior linebacker Markus Bailey is a legit All-American possibility, while true freshman George Karlaftis will add much needed support at defensive end. He is a West Lafayette native who Brohm managed to keep away from schools like Ohio State, Alabama and Clemson.
Weaknesses: Purdue was 11th in the Big Ten last season and they now lose their top two rushers in D.J. Knox and Markell Jones. Unless senior Tario Fuller can step up, Purdue is going to have to find some new ways to open up the ground attack. Moore will help on jet sweeps, but offensive coordinators Brian Brohm and JaMarcus Shephard will still need to be creative... David Blough is gone at the quarterback position, which leaves the Boilermakers forced to move on to Eljah Sindelar. Sindelar has a good amount of experience, but it will still be a transition from Blough, who had 3,705 yards and 25 touchdowns... This is another team without an absolutely daunting schedule, but there are a number of trap games. They get two Power Five opponents in the non-conference, in Vanderbilt and TCU, while also a tough November. They'll need to start off hot early to ensure bowl eligibility in 2019.
Projected Record: 6-6 (4-5 Big Ten)

7. Illinois Fighting Illini
Strengths: The Illini possess one of the nation's most underrated running backs in Reggie Corbin, who ran for 1,085 yards and 8.5 YPC a season ago. Along with the powerful Mike Epstein, Illinois is going to run the ball down the throats of West Division foes. This team was second in the league in rush offense in 2018... The defense was a problem this past season, but nine starters return to Champaign. Junior linebacker Jake Hansen leads an experienced front seven that has some intriguing upside, particularly guys like sophomore Calvin Avery... Oluwole Betiku was a five-star recruit at USC but never was able to see significant snaps with the Trojans. His arrival in Illinois is going to raise the talent in a big way on the defensive front.
Weaknesses: Quarterback is their biggest question as the regular season inches closer. True freshman Isaiah Williams is considered a frontrunner as a four-star recruit but Michigan transfer Brandon Peters may come in and steal the job. Peters saw some action in his Wolverines career but fell out of favor before heading across the conference... Junior defensive end Bobby Roundtree was the Illini's top pass rusher last season, with 7.5 sacks. Unfortunately, Roundtree suffered a severe spinal cord injury in a swimming accident over the off-season. The Illini will not have him in 2019, but will hope for a full recovery. This might more pressure on junior Isaiah Gay or Betiku to step up at the end spot... Will Lovie Smith's job security hang over this team like a cloud in 2019? While Smith recently signed an extension, its hard to imagine he will be able to survive another season without a bowl trip. Rumors of a coach on the hot seat always provide some unwanted drama for teams already with issues they need to solve.
Projected Record: 4-8 (1-8 Big Ten)

All-Big Ten Teams
First Team
QB: Adrian Martinez, Nebraska
RB: Jonathan Taylor, Wisconsin
RB: J.K. Dobbins, Ohio State
WR: Rondale Moore, Purdue
WR: K.J. Hill, Ohio State
TE: Jake Ferguson, Wisconsin
OL: Thayer Munford, Ohio State
OL: Ben Bredeson, Michigan
OL: Tyler Biadasz, Wisconsin
OL: Alaric Jackson, Iowa
OL: Jon Runyan, Michigan
DL: A.J. Epenesa, Iowa
DL: Kenny Willekes, Michigan State
DL: Yetur Gross-Matos, Penn State
DL: Chase Young, Ohio State
LB: Joe Bachie, Michigan State
LB: Paddy Fisher, Northwestern
LB: Mohamed Barry, Nebraska
CB: Lavert Hill, Michigan
CB: Josiah Scott, Michigan State
S: Jordan Fuller, Ohio State
S: Antoine Brooks Jr., Maryland
K: Matt Coghlin, Michigan State
P: Drue Chrisman, Ohio State

Second Team
QB: Shea Patterson, Michigan
RB: Reggie Corbin, Illinois
RB: Anthony McFarland, Maryland
WR: Tyler Johnson, Minnesota
WR: J.D. Spielman, Nebraska
TE: Pat Friermuth, Penn State
OL: Tristian Wirfs, Iowa
OL: Coy Cronk, Indiana
OL: Cesar Ruiz, Michigan
OL: Rashawn Slater, Northwestern
OL: Cole Van Lanen, Wisconsin
DL: Carter Couglin, Minnesota
DL: Joe Gaziano, Northwestern
DL: Mike Panasiuk, Michigan State
DL: Raequan Williams, Michigan State
LB: Markus Bailey, Purdue
LB: Micah Parsons, Penn State
LB: Zack Baun, Wisconsin
CB: Jeffrey Okuhah, Ohio State
CB: Dicaprio Bootle, Nebraska
S: Josh Metellus, Michigan
S: Antoine Winfield Jr., Minnesota
K: Jake Moody, Michigan
P: Will Hart, Michigan

Award Projections
Conference Championship: Michigan over Nebraska
Offensive Player of the Year: Jonathan Taylor, RB, Wisconsin
Defensive Player of the Year: A.J. Epenesa, DE, Iowa
Breakout Player of the Year: Adrian Martinez, QB, Nebraska
Freshman of the Year: Zach Harrison, DE, Ohio State
Coach of the Year: Scott Frost, Nebraska

Thursday, August 22, 2019

College Football Preview 2019: Breaking Down the ACC

Trevor Lawrence, Clemson
2018 In Review: (Atlantic) Clemson once again imposed their will on the rest of the ACC in 2018, going a flawless 8-0 and winning the conference championship by 32 points. In fact, they were so far in front of the rest of the league, with the exception of a Syracuse game where their star QB went down with injury, the Tigers closest game was a 20-point win over Boston College. While Florida State slipped down the Atlantic totem pole, Syracuse rose, winning ten game for the first time since 2001. Meanwhile, Louisville fell apart late in the year and Bobby Petrino was let go and replaced by Appalachian State's Scott Satterfield. (Coastal) A disappointing season from preseason favorite Miami as well as a rash of injuries at Virginia Tech left the Coastal Division wide open. In the end, Pittsburgh ended up rising to the occasion and taking it, going 6-2 in the conference. However, the Panthers were dominated in their two biggest games of the year, a meeting with rival Penn State (51-6) and that ACC Championship against Clemson. Behind them, Virginia was a pleasant surprise, winning eight games and going .500 in conference play, although they were unable to overtake their in-state rival. Rounding out the division was UNC, who fell to 2-9 and ended up firing Larry Fedora as head coach.

Power Rankings 

Atlantic Division 

1. Clemson Tigers
Strengths: 
Weaknesses:
Projected Record:

2. Syracuse Orange (National Rank: 16)
Strengths: Even without QB Eric Dungey, Syracuse breaks back a bunch of weapons offensively, notably running back Moe Neal and receiver Sean Riley... The Orange may have the top secondary in the league, led by sophomore safety Andre Cisco and corners Scoop Bradshaw and Chris Fredrick... This team will face one of the easiest schedules in all of Power Five football and get Clemson in the Carrier Dome.
Weaknesses: New QB Tommy DeVito has showed promise, but replacing Dungey is a tall task, considering what he meant to this offense and the program as a whole... The offensive line must replace three starters that cleared the way for Dungey and Neal all of 2018, with the left tackle position a major question mark... Will have to find a way to replace their top two linebackers, Ryan Guthrie and Kielan Whitner, who were 1-2 in tackles on the team last fall.
Projected Record: 10-2 (6-2 ACC)

3. Florida State Seminoles
Strengths: Running back Cam Akers suffered a heavy slump in 2018 but looks rejuvenated to have a big 2019. Akers ran for 1,024 yards as a true freshman before that number fell to 706 a season ago... Sophomore receiver Tamorrion Terry emerged as a special talent down the stretch for FSU in 2018. Terry averaged 21.3 yards per catch a year ago and caught eight touchdown passes, which could pave the way for a true breakout season in his second stint in Tallahassee... Even though their pass defense numbers were poor in '18, FSU has a talented secondary. Sophomore Asante Samuel Jr. will join junior Stanford Samuels III to form a superb 1-2 combo at cornerback.
Weaknesses: The offensive line play was atrocious last fall and needs to improve if the Seminoles want to keep pace in the Atlantic. They must replace three starters, although Northern Illinois grad transfer Ryan Roberts is a huge addition... James Blackman has experience at QB, as does Wisconsin transfer Alex Hornibrook. Yet, losing Deondre Francois is still notable, as he led the team in passing last fall... The schedule is not necessarily kind, as the 'Noles open the year with an always-dangerous Boise State team in Jacksonville and get their annual Florida meeting on the road.
Projected Record: 8-4 (5-3 ACC)

4. Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Strengths: Head coach Dave Clawson has established consistency at one of the toughest jobs in the Power Five, as Wake Forest has been to three straight bowl games. He should be able to maintain that level of success on to 2019 and beyond... Senior running back Cade Carney isn't anything flashy but he get the job done, compiling over 1,000 yards a season ago, the most for a Wake RB since '05. He is surrounded by some intriguing offensive pieces... All-ACC corner Essang Bassey is a great starting point for a defense that needs to take a step forward. Bassey recorded 16 pass deflections in 2018 and truly is shutdown.
Weaknesses: The Demon Deacons have two solid quarterbacks in Jamie Newman and Sam Hartman, but neither have been able to separate themselves. Hartman is probably more talented, but is still not 100 percent from a broken leg late in last year's campaign... There are some possible breakouts over at receiver, but losing Greg Dortch will still be notable. Dortch was second on the team's all-time receiver list and could also help in special teams... The pass rush has to get better in 2019, although there is no star pass rusher to note.
Projected Record: 7-5 (3-5 ACC)

5. NC State Wolfpack 
Strengths: Even though NC State has to replace 1,000-yard rusher Reggie Gallaspy, sophomore Ricky Person Jr. seems up to the task. He had 471 yards as a freshman and was a highly touted recruit when he came to Raleigh... The defense doesn't have a lot of big names, but is solid throughout. Senior James Smith-Williams had six sacks last year and seems like he could have a grand finale for this unit... Sophomore Christopher Dunn is one of the premier kickers in the ACC, notching 23 of 26 on field goals in 2018. He will allow this offense a little bit of wiggle room as they figure out the QB spot.
Weaknesses: Ryan Finley is playing on Sundays, leaving NC State with an uninspiring quarterback competition. Sophomore Matt McKay is the likely starter, but he'll be pushed by Florida State transfer Bailey Hockman... Two 1,000 yard receivers are gone, which will obviously not help whoever wins that QB job. Kelvin Harmon is an especially tough loss, as he was a big-bodied threat who could cause damage anywhere on the field... To add even more questions to the offense, the O-Line has just two starters back and a new coach.
Projected Record: 6-6 (3-5 ACC)

6. Boston College Eagles 
Strengths: One of the best running backs in the game is back in junior A.J. Dillon. A throwback, hard-nosed runner that fits BC's style of play, Dillon added 1,108 yards and 10 scores last year, despite missing two games... Junior QB Anthony Brown is among the best the Eagles have had in recent memory, totaling 20 touchdowns a season ago. He won't do anything that is too extraordinary, but he is very serviceable... BC does a great job developing the defense, which they'll have to once again, as they lose eight starters.
Weaknesses: This offense has to open up more if they want to compete in the top of the division, which will hinge on Brown playing even better and the receivers stepping up. Kobay White can make plays, but he needs help... How does Boston College replace their top two defenders, end Zach Allen and corner Hamp Cheevers? Cheevers was a steady force for a long time in this secondary, starting 15 consecutive games... The Eagles passed to their tight ends 33 percent of the time in 2018, but lose their top playmaker at the position in Tommy Sweeney.
Projected Record: 5-7 (2-6 ACC)

7. Louisville Cardinals
Strengths: New head coach Scott Satterfield has brought a lot of energy to the program, which it desperately needed. Satterfield did a tremendous job at Appalachian State, and he has way more resources at a school like Louisville... Even though the defense was last in the conference and 128th nationally in scoring defense, having nine starters back is a luxury for this new coaching staff... Possible starter at quarterback, sophomore Malik Cunningham, led all Cardinals with 497 yards last fall. He could get even better if Satterfield finds some creative ways to use his skills.
Weaknesses: A lot of players seemed to quit on this team last season and it was clear in their ten losses. The new staff will probably have to chase away some more players that just aren't committed to the new culture... The QB spot is a massive hole. Jawon "Puma" Pass was underwhelming in '18 and threw 12 interceptions. Cunningham could be interesting, but he just doesn't throw the ball with much confidence... Louisville was gashed by the run constantly last season and is in a division that includes Etienne, Dillon, Akers and Carney.
Projected Record: 3-9 (1-7 ACC)

Coastal Division

1. Virginia Cavaliers (National Rank: 23)
Strengths: Quarterback Bryce Perkins was quite the surprise for this offense a year ago, as the former Arizona State transfer notched 2,680 yards through the air and 923 on the ground. He is one of the most athletic quarterbacks in the country, and should be a guiding force for the Cavs in 2019... UVA was third in the ACC in scoring defense and return seven starters to a well-built group. They have one of the nation's premier corners in Bryce Hall, while bringing back a ton of production along the line and at linebacker... The schedule works out pretty well for Virginia as well. While there are some pretty tough road trips (Notre Dame, Miami), the Cavaliers get their arch-rival, Virginia Tech, at home.
Weaknesses: Running back has to be the offense's biggest question mark entering 2019. Jordan Ellis and his 1,026 yards and ten touchdowns are gone, leaving a huge hole. Junior P.K. Kier appears to be the favorite to take over, but he had just 80 yards in a backup role last fall. He'll need to step up in a huge way, or one of the new freshmen could overtake him... Juan Thornhill was the leader of the defense in a lot of ways last season, leading Virginia in tackles. His absence will leave a hole in the secondary, while also leaving a leadership gap that will need to be taken up by someone... Can Virginia really take the jump from a long-time doormat to Coastal champion? They have the talent and a whole lot veteran experience, but being the "hunted" will be an odd transition for the program.
Projected Record: 9-4 (6-2 ACC, Lose in ACC Championship Game)

2. Miami Hurricanes (National Rank: 24)
Strengths: Miami's linebacker corps will enter their fourth season of playing together, showcasing amazing chemistry and consistency. Shaq Quarterman is really the star of the group, but Michael Pinckney and Zach McCloud also play a crucial role on this defense. That trio will help keep this defense among the best the ACC has to offer... The 'Canes had the best pass defense in the entire nation in 2018 and bring back enough to be awfully stingy once more. Junior corner Trajan Bandy is well on his way to being a star, while USC transfer Bubba Bolden will be a crucial addition to the back-end... Even though Miami will miss the now-retired Ahmmon Richards, the receivers have serious upside. Jeff Thomas nearly transferred but decided to return, giving them a real burner on the outside. Buffalo transfer K.J. Osborn was a big get, while tight end Brevin Jordan is an All-ACC talent.
Weaknesses: Quarterback play was a disaster last season and needs to be improved. Ohio State newcomer Tate Martell was the favorite coming out of the spring, but Jarren Williams was recently named starter for the season opener. Williams has a lot of potential, but is he ready for the show? Could Martell be a distraction if he gets unhappy as a backup?... Three starters lost on the O-Line are significant, particularly in this division. Left tackle is a serious concern that will have to be remedied quickly... Manny Diaz seems to be a great hire and he brought in a solid OC in Dan Enos to run the offense. With that being said, Diaz has never been a head coach and Miami always has skyhigh expectations. It isn't unreasonable to think there could be some growing pains early on in the process.
Projected Record: 9-3 (6-2 ACC)

3. Virginia Tech Hokies
Ryan Willis, Virginia Tech
Strengths: Former Kansas transfer Ryan Willis was a revelation for VT at QB after taking over for the injured Josh Jackson. Willis threw for 2,716 yards and 24 touchdowns, while looking comfortable in this offense. He may not be an All-ACC quarterback but if he can slightly improve, the aerial attack should in good hands... Willis has a number of proven targets, with the most notable being Damon Hazelton. It has been awhile since Tech has been particularly strong at receiver, but Hazelton had 802 yards last year and seems to only be getting better. Tight end Dalton Keene is another solid building block going forward for this offense... This defense struggled last season, but nearly everybody is back and there are a lot of breakout candidates. Sophomore Dax Hollifield could have a huge year, while fellow LB Rayshard Ashby and corner Caleb Farley are already proven commodities. This could be a very successful final season for coordinator Bud Foster in Blacksburg.
Weaknesses: The energy around the program has been very negative the last 12 months, with a number of players transferring. Justin Fuente has done a fine job transitioning away from the legendary Frank Beamer, but he has some pressure on him to right the ship in 2019... Much like Miami, the Hokies have questions on the O-Line. Three starters are also gone, and both tackle spots could end up being questions... Who is this team's top pass rusher? Senior Houshun Gaines led them in 2018 with 4.5 sacks, but they need some other pieces to get after the quarterback if the defense is to fulfill its potential.
Projected Record: 8-4 (5-3 ACC)

4. North Carolina Tar Heels
Strengths: Mack Brown was an interesting hire by this program to try and regain relevancy in the Coastal. Brown won a lot of games his first stint here and at Texas, so it could be highly successful. He did make some strong hires at both coordinator spots and has already been hitting the recruiting trail, which bodes well for the future... One of the few strengths of the 2018 team was the pass defense (64th nationally). Three starters are back to the secondary, with senior free safety Myles Dorn an All-Conference talent. Figuring out who will start at cornerback will be imperative early on... True freshman Sam Howell is slated to be the starting QB. Despite no experience, Howell comes in with a lot of fanfare and has seemed to impress the coaching staff. He could have some struggles, but the talent is there.
Weaknesses: This team went 2-9 last season for a reason, there is a lot that needs work. The defense couldn't force turnovers and was gashed all year by the run, which will be the first main focus for the new defensive staff, which includes former Army DC Jay Bateman... Even if Howell is better than expected early on, he doesn't have a lot of proven options at wide out. Beyond Dazz Newsome, UNC doesn't have a lot at the position, which means a lot of guys are going to have to step up... For a team that will need time to get its feet under it, the Tar Heels don't have a favorable early schedule. The firth month includes South Carolina, Miami, Wake Forest, Appalachian State and then Clemson.
Projected Record: 5-7 (2-6 ACC)

5. Pittsburgh Panthers
Strengths: The reigning Coastal champ have momentum on their sides. They also have some motivation, after they were absolutely dominated in last year's ACC Championship by Clemson... While incredibly streaky, QB Kenny Pickett is a great starting point for the offense. Pickett had 1,969 yards and 12 scores in 2018, although he had some putrid performances mixed in. If he can become more consistent, this is a really good quarterback... While leading receiver Rafeal Araujo-Lopes is gone, Pittsburgh returns three other experienced wide outs for Pickett to work with. Maurice Ffrench is now likely their top guy, with Taysir Mack and Aaron Matthews helping out. That trio should give this pass offense some real bite.
Weaknesses: Even though they won their division, this Pitt team had some really major problems in '18. The pass offense still needs a lot of work, while the rush defense was terribly inconsistent. The rest of the Coastal seems to be getting better for the most part, but that doesn't seem like the case for the Panthers... Two 1,000-yard rushers depart this offense, which is obviously a huge problem. Junior A.J. Davis is now the first in line to replace the production, but he doesn't inspire a ton of confidence. Technically, Pickett is their top returning rusher, with 220 yards and three scores... Four starters are gone on the offensive line, although junior center Jimmy Morissey is quite the talent. Combine that with the questions at RB and this ground game is going to have a real tough time getting going in 2019.
Projected Record: 4-8 (2-6 ACC)

6. Duke Blue Devils
Strengths: There isn't a ton of debate head coach David Cutcliffe is among the most underrated coaches in the country. He has a proven pedigree with quarterbacks, but must show he can continued to reload in Durham, where a ton departs... It looks like this Duke offense is going to be run-first in 2019, which was not the case a year ago. Junior back Deon Jackson should be a 1,000-yard guy, while sturdy backup Brittain Brown will get action. They will operate behind an O-Line that is strong in the interior... Cornerback Mark Gilbert is an absolute stud and will be tasked with being the No. 1 coverage guy. He missed nearly all of 2018, but has proven he can compete in this league.
Weaknesses: No matter what you think of the Giants taking Daniel Jones No. 6, it is going to hurt Duke. Jones didn't put up crazy numbers in his final season with the Blue Devils, but was still an important leader. Now, Cutcliffe and this team will turn to long-time backup Quentin Harris at quarterback... Even if Harris is able to impress, who is he going to throw to? Nearly all of Jones' top targets are gone on the outside, leaving Jackson as their top returning pass-catcher. Sophomore Jake Bobo is probably the favorite to break out, but the position group is razor thin right now... Duke didn't get after the QB very well in 2018, which needs to change. Four starters do return to the D-Line, with Victor Dimukeje the leader of the group at the moment.
Projected Record: 4-8 (2-6 ACC)

7. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Strengths: Despite the loss of 2018's leading rusher, QB TaQuon Marshall, Georgia Tech returns a ton of talent to their backfield. Junior Jerry Howard Jr. had 564 yards and five scores last season and looks ready for a feature role, while KirVonte Benson is back after missing all of '18 (1,053 yards in 2017)... Georgia native Geoff Collins was an understandable hire following the retirement of long-time head coach Paul Johnson. Collins had a very successful stint up at Temple and will immediately bring more authority to the recruiting trail. He seems like the type of hire that could pay serious dividends for this program going forward... GT was +8 in turnover margin in 2018, which was second best in the ACC. A lot of that had to do with their ground-orientated approach, but also a secondary that could make plays and get turnovers. With safety Tariq Carpenter and corner Tre Swilling back to do much the same, expect a healthy dose of turnovers once again.
Weaknesses: An offense that has run the triple-option for over a decade will now be operating a spread attack under Collins. That is a major transition that will take time, particularly considering every QB on this roster was recruited to play in that triple-option system... Speaking of QB, it is unclear who will start the road opener against Clemson. Sophomore Tobias Oliver was helpful as a backup to Marshall in 2018, although he will be pushed by junior Lucas Johnson and redshirt frosh James Graham... The entire offense is obviously going to go through a huge transition, including a receiver group that doesn't have much star power. The program that once put out Calvin Johnson and Demaryius Thomas, the Yellow Jackets haven't had a receiver catch 25 passes since 2014. That should change, but guys like senior Jalen Camp are going to have to step up.
Projected Record: 4-8 (1-7 ACC)

All-ACC Teams
First Team
QB: Trevor Lawrence, Clemson
RB: Travis Etienne, Clemson
RB: A.J. Dillon, Boston College
WR: Justyn Ross, Clemson
WR: Tee Higgins, Clemson
TE: Brevin Jordan, Miami
OL: Charlie Heck, North Carolina
OL: John Simpson, Clemson
OL: Jimmy Morissey, Pittsburgh
OL: Mekhi Becton, Louisville
OL: Ben Petrula, Boston College
DL: Marvin Wilson, Florida State
DL: Alton Robinson, Syracuse
DL: Xavier Thomas, Clemson
DL: Rashad Weaver, Pittsburgh
LB: Shaq Quarterman, Miami
LB: Justin Strnad, Wake Forest
LB: Isaiah Simmons, Clemson
CB: A.J. Terrell, Clemson
CB: Bryce Hall, Virginia
S: Andre Cisco, Syracuse
S: Damar Hamlin, Pittsburgh
K: Andre Szmyt, Syracuse
P: Oscar Bradburn, Virginia Tech

Second Team
QB: Bryce Perkins, Virginia
RB: Cam Akers, Florida State
RB: Cade Carney, Wake Forest
WR: Tamorrion Terry, Florida State
WR: Sean Riley, Syracuse
TE: Dalton Keene, Virginia Tech
OL: Navuaghn Donaldson, Miami
OL: Airon Servais, Syracuse
OL: Sean Pollard, Clemson
OL: Justin Herron, Wake Forest
OL: Tremayne Anchrum, Clemson
DL: Kendall Coleman, Syracuse
DL: James Smith-Williams, NC State
DL: Carlos Basham, Wake Forest
DL: Jonathan Garvin, Miami
LB: Michael Pinckney, Miami
LB: Jordan Mack, Virginia
LB: Rayshard Ashby, Virginia Tech
CB: Trajan Bandy, Miami
CB: Mark Gilbert, Duke
S: Jarius Moorehead, NC State
S: K'Von Wallace, Clemson

Award Projections
Conference Championship: Clemson over Virginia
Offensive Player of the Year: Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson
Defensive Player of the Year: Bryce Hall, CB, Virginia
Breakout Player of the Year: Asante Samuel Jr., CB, Florida State
Freshman of the Year: Frank Ladson, WR, Clemson
Coach of the Year: Bronco Mendenhall, Virginia

Wednesday, August 21, 2019

College Football Preview 2019: 1. Alabama Crimson Tide

1. Alabama Crimson Tide

Following the worst loss of Saban's Alabama tenure, expect the Tide to come out with a vengeance in 2019


Tua Tagovailoa
Offense: Throughout all of last spring and summer, Alabama's QB competition between veteran Jalen Hurts and rising star Tua Tagovailoa loomed over the Crimson Tide offense. Tua clearly began to take over the job in late summer and would become the starter, never looking back. Jalen Hurts ends his 'Bama career with a clutch QB performance to win the SEC Championship before taking his talents to Norman, Oklahoma.

While Tagovailoa fell to the injury bug late in 2018, nearly the entirety of the season was a wild success. Tua's arm was a perfect it in Alabama's new, spread offense and he threw for nearly 4,000 yards on the year, along with 43 touchdowns, despite not playing most fourth quarters. The junior played well beyond his years, finishing up second in Heisman Trophy voting. The key going forward is to get fully healthy and to gel with new offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian. Sarkisian is going to want to run an offense that fits Tua's skill set, which will once again be a high-octane, verticals offense.

Alabama had two running backs taken high in this past spring's NFL Draft, yet you have to feel confident they will reload at the position once more. Junior Najee Harris is a former high-profile recruit who waited his turn behind Josh Jacobs and Damien Harris. Now, he'll be the lead guy, after notching 783 yards on 6.7 YPC in 2018. He is most certainly a major breakout candidate for this offense. Junior Brian Robinson provides a steady hand as a backup, posting 272 yards as the fourth-string. He doesn't have overwhelming talent, but has proven he can add somewhat of a spark. Unfortunately, the Tide got bad news behind him, when true freshman Trey Sanders was recently ruled out for the year due to a foot injury. Sanders was the highest-rated running back recruit in this class, and would've gotten action right away as a freshman. Instead, Alabama may turn to another newcomer in the 2019 class, Keilan Robinson.

There isn't a better receivers corps in the country than the one currently residing in Tuscaloosca. The only real competition would probably be Clemson, and the Tide are much deeper top-to-bottom. That is a noted shift from the early Saban years, when they would often lean mainly on one star. They'll spread the ball all around to their main four, but the top target has to be junior Jerry Jeudy. Jeudy won the Biletnikoff Award for top wide out in the country after reeling in 1,315 yards and 14 scores. He has insane talent, and seems to only be getting better as a route runner and as a blocker. He looks like the clear favorite to be the top receiver taken in the 2020 NFL Draft. Joining Jeudy is the rest of the third-year trio in Henry Ruggs III and DeVonta Smith. Ruggs was second on the team in yardage, with 741, while Smith is the hero of the 2018 National Championship for his game-winning touchdown. Add in sophomore Jaylen Waddle, one of the fastest players anywhere in college football, and Tua has a terrifying amount to work with. The only spot that may need to be figured out is going to be tight end, where Irv Smith Jr. left a year early and took 710 yards and seven TD's with him. His likely replacement is veteran Miller Foristall, who isn't the pass-catcher Smith was, but can still add valuable snaps as a blocker.

A punishing offensive line has been synonymous with Alabama during Saban's tenure, which shouldn't change in 2019. Even though three starters are gone, the two returnees will play a crucial role, and more young talent is waiting to step up. Junior Alex Leatherwood will make the move back to his natural spot at left tackle, while bruiser Jedrick Willis Jr. is a brick wall at RT. These are two more All-SEC talents who should go high in next spring's NFL Draft. Senior guard Matt Womack is also going to play a big role in opening up lanes for Harris, although the center and other guard spot are going to have to be figured out. Highly-touted newcomer Evan Neal could end up seeing snaps at either tackle or guard.

Even with some turnover on the offensive staff, as Sarkisian takes the place of co-OCs Josh Gattis and Mike Locksley, the Tide shouldn't take much of a step back from the 2018 group that averaged 45.6 PPG and 522 YPG. With Tua helped out by a slew of talent at receivers and running back, its going to be near impossible to slow down 'Bama over the course of 60 minutes. It certainly could compete for the best offense we've ever seen under Saban.

Defense: Alabama's defense was elite for nearly all of 2018, but their struggles against Georgia, Oklahoma and Clemson showed there is still room for growth. Former co-defensive coordinator Pete Golding is now the full-time DC after Tosh Lupoi joined the Cleveland Browns staff. He has the usual assemblage of Alabama starpower, but will have to reload in some places in the front seven.

The star of the defensive line a year ago was without question Quinnen Williams, who was absolutely unblockable at times for the Tide in 2018. Yet, he ended up not being the leader in sacks, as Isaiah Buggs led all Tide defender with 9.5. They both are gone, leaving a major leadership void, although the return of Raekwon Davis was an unexpected surprise. Davis didn't make quite the impact Williams or Buggs did last fall, but he is a proven veteran that seems to be motivated for a big year. He'll be locked in at one defensive end spot, with junior LaBryan Ray expected to start at the other one. Ray seems like he could be this year's Quinnen Williams, a player with huge upside that really has that breakthrough. He is yet another guy NFL scouts are going to keep a close eye on throughout the 2019 campaign. Expect the final starter on the line to be sophomore Phidarian Mathis, a gap-eater who had 18 tackles a season ago. Last year, the Tide weren't as deep as they were in year's past, and it really started to show in their production late in '18. In order to be stronger for the entirety of the season, they will probably need some youngsters to see snaps. Antonio Alfano is a consensus five-star recruit who can play end or stand-up outside linebacker, while redshirt freshman Stephon Wynn figures to get in the lineup as well.

Alabama's big name gone in the linebackers corps is Mack Wilson, a hard-hitting missile who was fifth on the team in tackles, compiling 65 in total. While he is a notable loss, 'Bama and this defensive staff still feel confident they could actually get an upgrade on the inside. Junior Dylan Moses is already slated as the next great Crimson Tide middle linebacker, as the team's leading tackler in 2018. He is the latest in a long line of studs at the position, from C.J. Mosley and Dont'a Hightower to Rueben Foster and Reggie Ragland. The likely replacement for Wilson could be special-teams demon Ale Kaho or true frosh Shane Lee. At outside linebacker, the Tide must replace possible breakout candidate Eyabi Anoma, who opted to transfer to Houston. With that being said, Alabama is still strong at OLB, as veterans Anfernee Jennings and Terrell Lewis are still in town. Jennings is vastly underrated nationally, as is a frequent disruptor in opposing backfields, totaling 13 tackles for loss in 2018. Depth in the linebackers corps is also significantly more thin than in year's past, which presents a rare challenge for Saban and Golding. The youth is really going to have to play well, and Jennings and Lewis are going to have to be real leaders.

Even though there was no question how talented Alabama was in the secondary, they finished 33rd in pass defense and fifth in the SEC. That is going to have to improve, with some of the losses the Tide suffer up front. The good news is that the defensive backfield brings back three starters, and is fully healthy. The lone piece moving on is safety Deionte Thompson, who had a great first half of '18 but slumped down the stretch. Both cornerback spots seem like they are in good hands, with a healthy Trevon Diggs and talented sophomore Patrick Surtain II back. Diggs has already proven he can make an impact on special teams, but he missed most of 2018. Surtain looked really good with increased snaps, with 37 tackles and seven passes defended. Diggs is probably a better athlete than Surtain, but the youngster already has impressive instincts and great flexibility at the line. Senior Shyheim Carter is also going to see snaps at corner or help out at safety, as a great weapon in man coverage who had two pick-sixes a year ago. Rounding out the unit is junior Xavier McKinney, who is ready to fill the production void left by Thompson. He was quietly very crucial to this defense in 2018, finishing third in tackles, picking off two passes, and swatting 11 balls.

Reloading on defense is just part of the DNA of Alabama under Saban, and they should be great again. There is a real star at every position group, with Davis, Moses and Surtain leading the way, and numerous others ready for breakthrough seasons. If 'Bama can power through some depth questions early on, a Top 10 group is very likely.

Special Teams: Kicking woes have loomed over Alabama in the past, but the Tide feel good about their special teams entering the fall. Joseph Bulovas proved to have a big leg, hitting 14 of 18 field goals, although extra points were a curious mystery for him. At punter, the Tide have a ton of options, including sophomore Skyler DeLong and Mike Bernier. The return game could be potent, as Jaylen Waddle is a thrill to watch on punt returns.

Bottom Line: Alabama players have spent all summer hearing that Clemson is "the new face of college football" and that their iron grip on the world of college football is over. That should serve as special motivation to a team that is once again loaded. Not only is the defense as talented as usual Alabama standards, the Tide's offense has been churning out offensive playmakers, led by the best QB of the Saban era in Tagovailoa. The SEC will offer some resistance to another Tide coronation atop the conference, namely from LSU in their division and the familiar Georgia Bulldogs in the East. Yet, until somebody proves they can topple Saban, it's hard to pick against the sport's top coach. I see him adding his third National Championship Trophy of the Playoff era, getting revenge against Clemson in what will be another instant classic.

Team Projections
Projected Record: 13-0 (8-0 SEC, Wins SEC Championship Game)
Offensive MVP: QB Tua Tagovailoa
Defensive MVP: LB Dylan Moses
Breakout Player of the Year: RB Najee Harris
Impact Freshman: DE Antonio Alfano

Five-Year Trend
2014: 12-2 (7-1 SEC)
2015: 14-1 (7-1 SEC)
2016: 14-1 (8-0 SEC)
2017: 13-1 (7-1 SEC)
2018: 14-1 (8-0 SEC)