College Football Picks 2023: Week One

Jordan Travis, Florida State

 (#5) LSU Tigers vs. (#8) Florida State Seminoles (Orlando)

Line: LSU -2.5

O/U: 56.5

The best game of 2023's opening weekend happens to be on Sunday night, as LSU and Florida State square off in a rematch of one of last year's most exciting games. Both enter with legitimate National Title aspirations and the neutral site matchup with a major resume-boosting opportunity.

LSU will be led once again by quarterback Jayden Daniels, who found his rhythm in the latter half of 2022 and now enters as one of college football's premier quarterbacks. Daniels wasn't overly impressive in this matchup a season ago but has had a whole year to acclimate himself to this offense and adds a dangerous element with his rushing ability. The key for the Tigers will be finding enough support around him to move the ball against the Seminoles. While Malik Nabers has evolved into one of the SEC's best, LSU has a bunch of unproven weapons beyond him in the receiver corps, although dynamic tight end Kole Taylor helps make up for it. The Tiger running back situation is also a bit unsettled; it's likely Brian Kelly will deploy a committee approach once more this fall, but could Notre Dame transfer Logan Diggs emerge as the feature option by the end of this one? Just as important will be how the LSU offensive line handles a ferocious Florida State pass rush that includes arguably college football's top edge rusher in Jared Verse. Sophomore tackles Emery Jones and Will Campbell were both extremely impressive as true freshman last fall, but they'll be facing off against a front seven stocked to the brim with future NFL talent. Campbell is likely to see Verse early and often, which could give him a chance to make quite an impression among the NFL personnel that are undoubtedly going to be flocking to Orlando.

Florida State also features a proven commodity under center in Jordan Travis, who went for nearly 300 all-purpose yards against the Tigers last season. The growth of Travis over his FSU career has been a joy to watch; he's developed into a competent, confident passer and has always had his legs to extend plays and open up this offense. There are a lot of people around the Florida State program that believe this opener could set the stage for a potential Heisman campaign. Around him, the 'Noles boast a deep and dynamic running back and have one of the top receiver combos in the country with Johnny Wilson and newcomer Keon Coleman. Wilson is a pain for opposing defenses, using his blend of size (6'7", 240 pounds) and soft hands to overpower smaller defenders. But, it's Coleman that could be the secret sauce for Florida State this fall, as the Michigan State transfer flashed serious potential with the Spartans and has potential to be a potent deep threat. With all those weapons, it's no question the Seminoles are going to move the ball, but I am curious to see what LSU defensive coordinator Matt House comes up with on the other side of the ball. He's got star-power at every level, including an elite linebacker duo of Omar Speights and Harold Perkins, that gives him versatility to draw up nearly anything. With that being said, LSU will be without a key piece up front in Maason Smith, who is suspended for this game, and is also breaking in plenty of fresh faces in the defensive backfield. Are they going to be ready to stop an aggressive Florida State aerial attack?

Although this may be an SEC-ACC matchup, it's going to have the feel of a physical SEC game between two power programs looking to prove themselves on a national stage. Both teams are going to duke it out in the trenches and are going to bully each other for the entire four quarters. I don't see either one having a clear-cut advantage and this line feels right heading in. But, I actually like Florida State to win straight up. I have less questions about their offense than LSU's at this point and feel as though they should be able to take more shots down the field than the Tigers. It will be another tight one, but I'm taking the same result as we saw in 2022.

The Pick: Florida State, 28 LSU, 24

Florida Gators @ (#14) Utah Utes

Line: Utah -4.5

O/U: 44.5

Last season, Florida's season-opening victory over Utah at "The Swamp" was supposed to be the beginning of a special debut season for Billy Napier and company. Instead, it was one of the few highlights for the Gators in 2022 as they sunk to below .500, while the Utes went on to win their second straight Pac-12 Title and play in the Rose Bowl. The two collide again on Thursday night, this time in Salt Lake City.

We got some much-needed clarity about this matchup earlier in the week when it was announced that Utah QB Cam Rising and star tight end Brant Kuithe were unlikely to play in this one. Both are recovering from torn ACLs, with Rising still working his way back from the injury suffered in the Rose Bowl defeat. That means that it's likely time for Bryson Barnes at quarterback for the Utes, but I don't envision the offensive gameplan changing all that much. Utah is going to look to run the ball down Florida's throats with their deep stable of backs, and they should have plenty of success. Whether it's rising star Ja'Quinden Jackson or complementary pieces Micah Bernard and Jaylon Glover, the Utes can constantly rotate in fresh legs, and they face a Gator defensive front with serious questions. This unit already struggled a year ago, then watched numerous defections over the offseason, including their coordinator Patrick Toney, who took a job with the Arizona Cardinals. I'm not sure if the Gators are going to have enough to contain this ground game, and Barnes should be able to get enough opportunities in play-action to move the chains consistently. It's not going to be the prettiest offensive sight, but rarely have Kyle Whittingham teams played a flashy brand of football. That hasn't stopped the from being a consistent pain to play, especially in the friendly confines of Rice-Eccles Stadium.

Expect Florida to also pound the ball early and often with a quality running back duo of their own in Trevor Etienne and Montrell Johnson. Etienne may not have the top-end speed of his older brother Travis, but he proved he could be a workhorse option last fall and looks like a special breakout candidate in 2023, while Johnson has no issues playing bully ball. The problem for Florida is that their offensive line has serious questions throughout the unit, and they play a Ute front seven that always comes to play. In fact, few programs in college football are as consistent up front as Utah, even though they enter the season with a few more questions on their back-end. The reality is that if Florida is to go on the road and pull off the upset, they are going to need Graham Mertz to show up in a big way. The Wisconsin transfer has been a constant source of criticism, unable to ever match the magic of his first start during the 2020 season against Illinois. Perhaps he just needed a change of scenery, but he's not throwing the ball to a loaded receiver room, either. Beyond Ricky Pearsall, there's not really another proven pass-catcher on the roster. Tight end Keon Zipperer is their top returning receiver behind Pearsall, with 13 receptions for 177 yards a season ago. There are likely to be opportunities as Utah breaks in some new faces in the pass defense, but I just don't have a ton of confidence the Gators are going to be able to take advantage, especially playing in a raucous road setting.

As I said in my preview of this game last season, the environment is going to be a major factor. Florida had the advantage of playing at home last year and having experience playing in the humidity of Florida Augusts. But now, they have to travel across the country and play at altitude against a Utah program that is nearly unstoppable at home. I simply don't see the route for an upset, even with Rising unlikely to play. In fact, although this isn't my "Lock of the Week" I feel comfortably locking in Utah to win comfortably, particularly where this line is at.

The Pick: Utah, 27 Florida, 14

(#21) North Carolina Tar Heels vs. South Carolina Gamecocks (Charlotte)

Line: UNC -2.5

O/U: 64.5

North Carolina and South Carolina meet up for their 60th all-time meeting on Saturday evening, with both programs searching for different goals. The Tar Heels are under a bit of pressure as they look to recover from a dismal stretch to end 2022 and make the most of the Drake Maye era, while the Gamecocks have had two solid seasons of progress under Shane Beamer and are looking to evolve into a legitimate threat to Georgia's stranglehold on the SEC East.

For the Tar Heels, it truly is all about Drake Maye. In his first season as starter, he went for 4,321 yards and 45 total touchdowns, finishing tenth in Heisman voting. As he prepares for 2023, he's looking to not only build on those numbers but deliver a season that keeps him on the top of NFL Draft boards heading into next spring. He'll have to do so with some fresh faces around him, mainly at receiver, as North Carolina will miss Josh Downs and Antoine Green. There are still weapons, namely tight end Bryson Nesbit and potential breakout candidates J.J. Jones and Gavin Blackwell, plus the Heels feature an underrated running back room with Omarion Hampton and Elijah Green. Add in an experienced offensive line, I don't have any doubt that UNC is going to put up plenty of points, especially against a South Carolina defense replacing star-power at every level. Yet, scoring points has not been the problem for the Heels during the Mack Brown era, it's been stopping others from doing the same. All eyes will be on the Tar Heel defense, which faces a significant early test with the Gamecocks. 

Spencer Rattler has been a controversial name in college football for years now and is maddeningly streaky, but he seemed to turn the corner down the stretch in 2022. He took care of the football and played with a confidence and poise that we saw at times during his Oklahoma tenure, but not often enough. This could be his shot at a shining moment, and he'll take on an especially large role with South Carolina breaking in new playmakers at the skill positions. Senior receiver Antwane Wells with a point of emphasis for the Tar Heels, but I' actually watching two newcomers with a closer eye. Tight end Trey Knox is going to be a security blanket in this offense as he comes over from Arkansas, but the most intriguing Gamecock on the field to me is true freshman Nyckoles Harbor. The dude is a freak, 6'5", 230 pounds who could play either defense or offense, but will most likely be used for his explosiveness offensively. New offensive coordinator Dowell Logains, who coached Knox as Arkansas TE coach, is going to be creative with how he gets Harbor the football, and I think he could cause real damage to this Tar Heel defense. With that being said, I'm not still entirely sure what type of UNC defense is actually going to end up showing up here. This unit looks the part when they walk off the bus and there's a bunch of NFL talent, but the program's Achilles heel for so long has been on this side of the ball. I think the front seven can give the Gamecocks challenges, but the secondary has real problems and could be in store for a rough one against Rattler and company.

I don't have a strong lean either way heading into this one, as both teams appear pretty evenly matched, feature quality quarterbacks, and should have ample motivation. I'll roll with the Gamecocks, mainly because Shane Beamer has this program riding a wave of momentum and I feel as though I have a better picture of what they will look like on both sides of the ball. Either way, points should come fast and furious in this one, so buckle up for a fun one in Charlotte.

The Pick: South Carolina, 40 North Carolina, 35

Other Picks

Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers -- The Matt Rhule era begins in the Twin Cities, with the Gophers aiming for their fifth straight victory over the 'Huskers. Both teams are featuring new quarterbacks, but Athan Kaliakmanis gained valuable experience last fall and has a deep receiver room; that should make all the difference at home.

The Pick: Minnesota, 21 Nebraska, 17

Boise State Broncos @ (#10) Washington Huskies -- The "Chris Petersen Revenge Tour" for Boise State, who turned a corner under Andy Avalos last fall. But, I simply don't think they have enough to keep up with Michael Penix and this high-flying Husky attack.

The Pick: Washington, 45 Boise State, 31

(#9) Clemson Tigers @ Duke Blue Devils -- Duke is my dark horse ACC pick this year and they do get Clemson at home, but the Tigers are simply too overpowering up and down this depth chart. The offense may take some time to find its groove, but I still believe they avoid the upset.

The Pick: Clemson, 35 Duke, 21

Upset: Colorado Buffaloes over (#17) TCU Horned Frogs -- I'm not even particularly high on Colorado this year under Deion Sanders. In fact, I have them finishing near the bottom of the Pac-12 at 3-9. Yet, something tells me they are going to get an early win and an overwhelming amount of hype, and what better way to do that then beating a TCU team with plenty of question marks of their own?

The Pick: Colorado, 34 TCU, 31

Superdog (covers > 21-point spread): New Mexico (+38.5) @ Texas A&M -- The Lobos shouldn't present too much difficulty for the Aggies in College Station, but I think there may be an early feeling out process for the A&M offense as Bobby Petrino takes over play-calling duties.

The Pick: Texas A&M, 38 New Mexico, 7

Lock of the Week: UCLA (-14) vs. Coastal Carolina -- We still aren't sure who will be taking snaps under center for the Bruins in this one, but this is an experienced and balanced roster who should be able to overcome Coastal Carolina at home.

The Pick: UCLA, 38 Coastal Carolina, 21

Complete College Football Preview 2023

Carson Beck, Georgia

 Top 25 Rankings

1. Michigan Wolverines -- Last season's surprising CFB Playoff defeat at the hands of TCU should provide ample motivation for a balanced and experienced Wolverine team.

2. Georgia Bulldogs -- A three-peat in Athens? Carson Beck should lead an explosive offense and with a typically stout Bulldog defense, it's a real possibility. 

3. Alabama Crimson Tide -- It's been two "down" seasons in Tuscaloosa, but after shuffling their coaching staff, the mighty Tide will return to the Playoff in 2023. 

4. USC Trojans -- We know the Trojans are going to put up points under Lincoln Riley, but defensive improvement will be the key to making the program's first Playoff appearance. 

5. Ohio State Buckeyes -- Even as Ohio State breaks in a new signal-caller, a loaded receiver room will keep them firmly entrenched in the Big Ten Title hunt. 

6. Clemson Tigers -- Dabo Swinney made a necessary move bringing in Garrett Riley as the program's new OC, and the Tigers remain the team to beat in the ACC. 

7. Penn State Nittany Lions -- The Nittany Lions are so much more than a third wheel to Michigan and Ohio State in the East. With a bunch of impressive young talent, they will legitimately battle for a Playoff berth. 

8. LSU Tigers -- LSU and Brian Kelly won't give up their SEC West Title without a fight. Veteran QB Jayden Daniels and a ferocious defensive front keeps them firmly in the National Title mix. 

9. Florida State Seminoles -- Mike Norvell has engineered an impressive turnaround in Tallahassee and if things go right, they could overtake Clemson for the ACC crown this fall. 

10. Oregon Ducks -- As the Ducks prepare for life in the Big Ten, Bo Nix and company should set them up for a grand finale in 2023. 

11. Washington Huskies -- Kalen DeBoer's 11-win debut in Seattle was no fluke. With an elite aerial attack, the Huskies could win their first Pac-12 Title since 2018.

12. Notre Dame Fighting Irish -- It may not have been a ringing debut for Marcus Freeman in 2022, but the addition of Sam Hartman makes the Irish a threat this year.

13. Utah Utes -- The Utes are the model program in the Pac-12 and even with a brutal schedule, they'll be a tough out in the league once again. 

14. Texas Longhorns -- Is this the year Texas finally lives up to preseason expectations? They're loaded with talent and operating in a wide-open Big 12, but making definitive predictions about this program remains as difficult as ever.

15. Tennessee Volunteers -- Was 2022 a fluke or the new standard in Knoxville? The Volunteers should put up points again, but the defense will determine their ceiling this fall.

16. Kansas State Wildcats -- The ever-steady Wildcats return enough on both sides of the ball to keep a hold on the Big 12. 

17. Oregon State Beavers -- Jonathan Smith has built a winner in Corvallis, and if D.J. Uiagalelei acclimates quickly, the Beavers will be extra dangerous.

18. Iowa Hawkeyes -- With even modest offensive improvements, Iowa should be able to retake the Big Ten West in 2023.

19. Troy Trojans -- With plenty back and an infusion of former Power Five transfers, I'm picking Troy to become the Sun Belt's first New Year's Six representative.

20. Texas A&M Aggies -- Just about everything went wrong for A&M last fall, but the hire of Bobby Petrino as OC could spring a massive turnaround.

21. TCU Horned Frogs -- It's unlikely TCU will be able to completely replicate the magic of 2022, but if Chandler Morris can come in and make a difference, the Horned Frogs will remain a Big 12 Title contender.

22. Miami Hurricanes -- Miami is a much better team than what we saw last fall and a healthy Tyler Van Dyke should make a world of difference in Coral Gables.

23. SMU Mustangs -- With a wave of former Power Five transfers, I like SMU's chances to come out on top of a new-look American Athletic Conference.

24. Oklahoma Sooners -- 2022 should serve as a wakeup call for an Oklahoma program that will be embarking on a new challenge in the SEC next season.

25. Duke Blue Devils -- With dynamic QB Riley Leonard leading the way, the Blue Devils have a chance to be a dark horse in the ACC.

Conference Predictions

ACC

1. Clemson Tigers (12-1, 7-1 ACC)

2. Florida State Seminoles (10-3, 6-2 ACC)

3. Miami Hurricanes (8-4, 5-3 ACC)

4. Duke Blue Devils (8-4, 5-3 ACC)

5. North Carolina Tar Heels (8-4, 5-3 ACC)

6. Pittsburgh Panthers (8-4, 5-3 ACC)

7. Louisville Cardinals (7-5, 4-4 ACC)

8. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (6-6, 4-4 ACC)

9. NC State Wolfpack (6-6, 4-4 ACC)

10. Virginia Tech Hokies (6-6, 3-5 ACC)

11. Boston College Eagles (6-6, 3-5 ACC)

12. Syracuse Orange (5-7, 2-6 ACC)

13. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (5-7, 2-6 ACC)

14. Virginia Cavaliers (4-8, 1-7 ACC)

ACC Championship: Clemson over Florida State

Big Ten - East

1. Michigan Wolverines (13-0, 9-0 Big Ten)

2. Ohio State Buckeyes (11-1, 8-1 Big Ten)

3. Penn State Nittany Lions (10-2, 7-2 Big Ten)

4. Maryland Terrapins (8-4, 5-4 Big Ten)

5. Michigan State Spartans (6-6, 4-5 Big Ten)

6. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (4-8, 1-8 Big Ten)

7. Indiana Hoosiers (3-9, 1-8 Big Ten)

Big Ten - West

1. Iowa Hawkeyes (9-4, 6-3 Big Ten)

2. Wisconsin Badgers (7-5, 5-4 Big Ten)

3. Minnesota Golden Gophers (7-5, 5-4 Big Ten)

4. Illinois Fighting Illini (7-5, 4-5 Big Ten)

5. Purdue Boilermakers (6-6, 4-5 Big Ten)

6. Nebraska Cornhuskers (6-6, 3-6 Big Ten)

7. Northwestern Wildcats (2-10, 0-9 Big Ten)

Big Ten Championship: Michigan over Iowa

Big 12

1. Texas Longhorns (10-3, 7-2 Big 12)

2. Kansas State Wildcats (9-4, 6-3 Big 12)

3. Oklahoma Sooners (8-4, 6-3 Big 12)

4. TCU Horned Frogs (8-4, 5-4 Big 12)

5. Oklahoma State Cowboys (7-5, 5-4 Big 12)

6. Baylor Bears (7-5, 5-4 Big 12)

7. Texas Tech Red Raiders (6-6, 4-5 Big 12)

8. Kansas Jayhawks (6-6, 4-5 Big 12)

9. BYU Cougars (6-6, 4-5 Big 12)

10. UCF Knights (6-6, 3-6 Big 12)

11. Houston Cougars (6-6, 3-6 Big 12)

12. Iowa State Cyclones (5-7, 3-6 Big 12)

13. Cincinnati Bearcats (5-7, 3-6 Big 12)

14. West Virginia Mountaineers (2-10, 0-9 Big 12)

Big 12 Championship: Texas over Kansas State

Pac-12 

1. USC Trojans (12-1, 8-1 Pac-12)

2. Oregon Ducks (10-3, 7-2 Pac-12)

3. Washington Huskies (9-3, 6-3 Pac-12)

4. Utah Utes (9-3, 6-3 Pac-12)

5. Oregon State Beavers (9-3, 6-3 Pac-12)

6. UCLA Bruins (8-4, 5-4 Pac-12)

7. Washington State Cougars (7-5, 5-4 Pac-12)

8. Arizona Wildcats (5-7, 3-6 Pac-12)

9. Arizona State Sun Devils (5-7, 3-6 Pac-12)

10. California Golden Bears (5-7, 3-6 Pac-12)

11. Stanford Cardinal (4-8, 2-7 Pac-12)

12. Colorado Buffaloes (3-9, 1-8 Pac-12)

Pac-12 Championship: USC over Oregon

SEC - East

1. Georgia Bulldogs (12-1, 8-0 SEC)

2. Tennessee Volunteers (9-3, 5-3 SEC)

3. Kentucky Wildcats (8-4, 5-3 SEC)

4. South Carolina Gamecocks (6-6, 4-4 SEC)

5. Florida Gators (6-6, 2-6 SEC)

6. Missouri Tigers (5-7, 2-6 SEC)

7. Vanderbilt Commodores (4-8, 1-7 SEC)

SEC - West

1. Alabama Crimson Tide (12-1, 7-1 SEC)

2. LSU Tigers (10-2, 7-1 SEC)

3. Texas A&M Aggies (8-4, 5-3 SEC

4. Ole Miss Rebels (8-4, 4-4 SEC)

5. Arkansas Razorbacks (7-5, 4-4 SEC)

6. Auburn Tigers (7-5, 3-5 SEC)

7. Mississippi State Bulldogs (6-6, 2-6 SEC)

SEC Championship: Alabama over Georgia

Group of Five

American Athletic Conference: SMU over Tulane

Conference USA: Western Kentucky over Liberty

MAC: Toledo over Ohio

Mountain West: Boise State over Air Force

Sun Belt: Troy over Appalachian State

Awards

Bronko Nagurski (Defensive Player of the Year): Harold Perkins, LSU (winner); Jared Verse, Florida State (finalist); Jackson Mitchell, UConn (finalist)

Dick Butkus Award (best LB): Harold Perkins, LSU (winner); Jackson Mitchell, UConn (finalist); Tommy Eichenberg, Ohio State (finalist)

Davey O'Brien Award (best QB): Carson Beck, Georgia (winner); Caleb Williams, USC (finalist); Michael Penix, Washington (finalist)

Doak Walker (best RB) TreVeyon Henderson, Ohio State (winner); Will Shipley, Clemson (finalist); Rasheen Ali, Marshall (finalist)

Frank Broyles Award (top assistant): Garrett Riley, Clemson (winner); Ryan Grubb, Washington (finalist); Kevin Steele, Alabama (finalist); Matt House, LSU (finalist)

Fred Biletnikoff Award (best WR): Xavier Worthy, Texas (winner); Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State (finalist); Malachi Corley, Western Kentucky (finalist)

Home Depot Award (Coach of the Year): Steve Sarkisian, Texas (winner); Nick Saban, Alabama (finalist); Jonathan Smith, Oregon State (finalist)

Jim Thorpe Award (best DB): Cooper DeJean, Iowa (winner); Travis Hunter, Colorado (finalist); Kool-Aid McKinstry, Alabama (finalist)

John Mackey Award (best TE): Brock Bowers, Georgia (winner); Luke Lachey, Iowa (finalist); Jake Briningstool, Clemson (finalist)

Lou Groza Award (best K): Will Reichard, Alabama (winner); Griffin Kell, TCU (finalist); Jack Browning (San Diego State)

Ray Guy Award (best P): Tory Taylor, Iowa (winner); Kai Kroeger, South Carolina (finalist); Jesse Mirco, Ohio State (finalist)

Heisman Trophy

1. Carson Beck, QB, Georgia (winner)

2. Michael Penix, QB, Washington (finalist)

3. Caleb Williams, QB, USC (finalist)

4. TreVeyon Henderson, RB, Ohio State 

5. Harold Perkins, LB, LSU

6. Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State

7. Bo Nix, QB, Oregon

8. Will Shipley, RB, Clemson

9. Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia

10. Austin Reed, QB, Western Kentucky

College Football Preview 2023: 1. Michigan Wolverines

J.J. McCarthy, Michigan

 

1. Michigan Wolverines

2022 proved the Wolverines had staying power; now, the next step for Harbaugh and company is to take home their first National Title since 1997

2022 Review

How was Michigan going to follow up a breakthrough 2021 in which they won a Big Ten Title, beat Ohio State, and played in the College Football Playoff? Evidently, the encore was even more impressive. The Wolverines ripped through a breeze of a non-conference and then survived a tricky early Big Ten slate, which included Maryland at home, Iowa on the road, and Indiana on the road. They entered the season's back-half undefeated, but faced a gauntlet down the stretch that included a pair of Top 10 foes and a rematch against a Michigan State team that was their lone regular season defeat of 2021. Instead of slowing down, the Wolverines kicked it into another gear. They blew out Penn State, Michigan State, Rutgers, and Nebraska before surviving a stinker against Illinois. In their biggest game of the year, a rematch of "The Game" with Ohio State, Michigan went into Columbus and tossed around the Buckeyes for sixty minutes, resulting in 45-23 win. It was a statement by Jim Harbaugh and the Wolverines, who for years heard relentless criticism about their lackluster performances in one of the sport's defining rivalries. With another impressive victory in the Big Ten Championship Game, Michigan entered the College Football Playoff with their eyes on a National Title. Instead, an early pick six by TCU seemed to immediately change the momentum of the Fiesta Bowl, and a shockingly bad defensive showing doomed the Wolverines to a 51-45 defeat, putting a damper on an otherwise unbelievably successful season. It proved that, despite all the progress of the last two seasons, there was more work to be done in Ann Arbor. With several big pieces turning down the NFL for one more run with the Wolverines, it's clear the theme of unfinished business has permeated itself throughout the program and should set up a big 2023 campaign.

2023 Outlook

Offense: The major storyline for Michigan's offense entering 2022 was the quarterback situation. Cade McNamara had just led the Wolverines to a Playoff appearance, but rising sophomore J.J. McCarthy was widely considered the future of the program and it seemed only a matter of time before it was his time. That time came earlier than some may have expected, as McCarthy took ahold of the job by Week Three and started every game since, finishing with 2,719 yards and 27 touchdowns. 

Now, McCarthy enters 2023 as the unquestioned guy at quarterback, as McNamara has since transferred to Iowa. The junior was awfully impressive as a first-year starter last fall, but still has plenty to work on as he prepares for his third year in the program. For one, developing more consistency will be a top priority, as will taking more shots down the field, which did start to materialize down the stretch in 2022. There was also the TCU game; despite throwing for 343 yards, McCarthy's two interceptions were really the turning point of the game. The haunting image of him watching the Horned Frogs celebrate their eventual win seemed like a warning to the college football world, that McCarthy would be back with a vengeance this fall. 

Flanking McCarthy in the backfield will be the nation's top running back duo in Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards. Corum seemed well on his way to national awards before a late knee injury suffered in the Illinois win forced him to miss their final few games. He still tallied 1,463 yards and 18 touchdowns and decided to wait on the NFL, looking to wrap up his Michigan career in a big way. Edwards ran for 991 yards beside him, including over seven yards per carry, and gives the Wolverines a home-run hitter to pair with the hard-running Corum. Even third-stringer C.J. Stokes should get in on the action, after running for 273 yards in limited action a season ago.

With such a loaded running back room, one would assume that would take some pressure of a receiver corps that will miss top weapon Ronnie Bell in 2023. I would actually argue the complete opposite. The ground game is going to produce no matter what; it's up to the receiver corps to help Michigan take the next step in their evolution. 

The good news is that, despite the loss of Bell, there are still ample weapons for McCarthy to play with. Cornelius Johnson and Roman Wilson have both emerged as legitimate playmakers who both could be in store for even more as they gear up for the fall. Johnson in particular will need to show out; the 6'3", 210-pounder has all the physical tools and seems on the cusp of stardom, it's just a matter of putting it together over the course of an entire season. It is a bit thin behind these two, although the Wolverines appear high on sophomore Tyler Morris, who came down with three receptions in eight games as a true freshman.

The tight end position is going to play its usual outsized role in this passing attack and should be in good hands, even though it also loses a key piece in Luke Schoonmaker. Sophomore Colston Loveland was very impressive as a true freshman last fall and seems like the next great Wolverine at the position. He's more athletic than Schoonmaker and can make things happen in the open field, which should terrify Big Ten defenses. Indiana transfer A.J. Barner will come in and play plenty alongside Loveland in an offense that uses two tight end sets frequently. Barner isn't that much of a pass-catcher, but he's a powerful blocker who should open things up in the running game.

Michigan's entire offense deserves ample credit for their work the last two seasons but at its heart, the offensive line has been the driving engine. This group has shredded every defensive front they've faced throughout 2021 and '22 and is reminiscent of the Alabama O-Lines of the early 2010s that looked more like NFL blockers than collegiate ones. They have won two consecutive Joe Moore Awards as the nation's top O-Line and despite a few notable departures, should be in the mix for a third.

Center Olu Oluwatimi leaves a major void after moving on to the NFL, but the Wolverines brought in a capable replacement in Stanford grad transfer Drake Nugent, who should slide right into the starting position. He'll be joined on the interior by a pair of All-Big Ten guards in Zak Zinter and Trevor Keegan, and there are additional Pac-12 reinforcements at tackle in LaDarius Henderson and Myles Hinton. With 145 career starts on the line, this is going to be a deep and experienced group that should set a physical tone for Michigan all season long. 

Jim Harbaugh has his best offense at Michigan as he embarks on Year Nine with his alma mater. McCarthy elevates their ceiling with his upside, Corum and Edwards should run wild, and the O-Line should overwhelm just about every opponent on the schedule. This is going to be an efficient and productive group that should be among the best nationally.

Defense: For the first time since 2020, Michigan will be entering a new season with a returning defensive coordinator, as Jesse Minter is back after engineering an elite defensive showing last fall. The Wolverines allowed under 300 yards per game and just 16.1 points per game on the year, although that TCU game proved there was still work to be done entering 2023.

The defensive line will be undergoing a transition as two of their top pieces, Mike Morris and Mazi Smith, left over the offseason. Both are significant losses; Morris was the team's most consistent pass rusher off the edge, while Smith was a physical force in the middle who swallowed up opposing rushers. Juniors Jaylen Harrell and Kris Jenkins, the two returnees to the line, will have to step up and make their presence felt. Harrell has been a quality contributor over the last few seasons but it still feels like there's something more waiting, while Jenkins earned Honorable Mention All-Big Ten in 2022.

Fortunately, an elite linebacker corps should ensure there's not too much slippage in the front seven. Veterans Michael Barrett and Junior Colson are two of the best the Big Ten has to offer and are both back in Ann Arbor after combining for 173 tackles a season ago. Colson is the tackling machine at middle linebacker, a rangy defender who seems to always be in the right spot at the right time.

As if those two weren't enough, Michigan went out into the transfer portal and landed one of the top rising linebackers in the country in Ernest Hausmann from Nebraska. Hasumann was one of the few bright spots for the 'Huskers during a miserable 2022 campaign, becoming the first true freshman linebacker to start for the program in thirty years. He's going to factor in heavily into the rotation and has a bright future for a university that is churning out impact defenders at an impressive rate.

Much like the defensive line, the secondary loses a couple big names in D.J. Turner and R.J. Moten, but should remain one of the best in the Big Ten. Sophomore Will Johnson was a high-profile recruit who lived up to the hype his first season on campus, making five starts and notching six pass breakups. Is he ready to slide into the No. 1 cornerback role? UMass transfer Josh Wallace or converted wide receiver Amorion Walker are competing for the starting spot opposite of Johnson, locked into an interesting position battle. Michigan has had success converting receivers to defensive backs before, as nickel Mike Sanristil was tremendous last fall and will man the position once more.

The two safeties don't quite have the star-power of the cornerbacks, but veteran Rod Moore has proven to be an ultra-reliable, productive piece at the important free safety position. He'll play an even larger role in 2023 with Moten moving on, although junior Makari Paige saw plenty of action last fall and shouldn't have too much difficulties acclimating to a starting role.

There is no Jabrill Peppers or Aidan Hutchinson-type star on this Michigan defense that's going to command Heisman consideration. But, few programs in the country reload as well on this side of the ball as the Wolverines, with a distinct culture that they can plug pieces into. Even with a few big names moving on, this is going to be a stout group again this fall.

Special Teams: There are questions on special teams, as Michigan said goodbye to both kicker Jake Moody and punter Brad Robbins over the offseason. Both were not only incredibly reliable, it's clear they were adored by NFL personnel, and Moody even went as high as the third round of the NFL Draft. Louisville transfer James Turner has the inside track to take over at kicker, while sophomore Tommy Doman is probably the guy at punter. The return game is also going to need someone to emerge with A.J. Henning transferring, although Roman Wilson showed he was capable last season.

Bottom Line

For years, I've argued that the turnaround Jim Harbaugh has achieved in Ann Arbor doesn't get the national respect it deserves, and the last two seasons have felt like validation. But instead of silencing the doubters, the two College Football Playoff losses have seemingly led to more questions on whether Harbaugh can get the program over the top and win the big one. That's been followed by a tumultuous offseason of Harbaugh drama, starting with the NFL head coaching rumors and concluding with a Michigan-imposed suspension announced within the last week. Instead of all of this leading to a step-back for Harbaugh and the Wolverines, I envision it going the exact opposite direction, towards Harbaugh and this program achieving the ultimate goal of a National Title. Of course, it won't be easy; Ohio State and Penn State will be breathing down their backs in a brutal Big Ten East and the Georgia Bulldogs are an absolute machine that isn't slowing down anytime soon. But, when has winning a National Title ever been easy? This team is motivated and hungry after what went down to close out 2022 and with all the talent on both sides of the ball, they have the pieces in place to bring back a National Title to Ann Arbor for the first time in two-and-a-half decades.

Program Profile

Coaching Staff

Sometimes the flashy alum hire doesn't work out (ahem, Scott Frost), but it certainly has at Michigan. Jim Harbaugh has gone 74-25 in eight years with the Wolverines, which now includes a pair of Big Ten Titles. It's a truly remarkable run, but especially impressive when you consider Michigan had won 10 games just once since Lloyd Carr left after the 2007 season. On offense, Sherrone Moore will now be the full-time OC after serving as co-offensive coordinator last season. The 37-year old has been with the program in various roles since 2018 and will split interim head coach duties with several other staff members while Harbaugh serves his suspension. On the other side of the ball, Jesse Minter is back for his second season as defensive coordinator. The former John Harbaugh assistant with the Baltimore Ravens earned Broyles Award consideration for his work as coordinator last fall and should be at the helm of another elite group in 2023.

Recruiting Breakdown

What I find particularly impressive about Michigan is that they've been so successful despite recruiting that pales in comparison to most of the sport's true elites. That's not to say the Wolverines aren't bringing in strong classes, but these groups tend to be more in the Top 10-20 than Top 5. The 2023 Class lands at 17th nationally, headlined by the next great Michigan edge rusher, Enow Etta. Etta was a big get from the state of Texas who was also considering Alabama, Michigan State, and Stanford. Along with him, the Wolverines further bolstered their defense by landing a pair of superb corners in Jyaire Hill and Cameron Calhoun, both from the Midwest. Both were with the program during spring and although they may not see significant playing time this fall, have bright futures ahead of them. Another name to keep a close eye on is receiver Karmello English, the type of athlete that the Wolverines have occasionally been missing at the position. From Alabama, the former Auburn decommit can line up either at the slot or on the perimeter and has game-breaking speed.

2023 Schedule Analysis

For the second straight season, the Wolverines will enjoy a remarkably soft non-conference slate, with home games against East Carolina, UNLV, and Bowling Green. Coincidentally, those just happen to be the three games that Jim Harbaugh is suspended for. In fact, the schedule doesn't really pick up until late September and early October, with road back-to-backs against Nebraska and Minnesota, but even those contests Michigan should be comfortably favored in. A road trip to Michigan State begins a really tough final month of the season, but the Wolverines are blessed with a bye before things get super difficult. The month of November includes Purdue at home, Penn State and Maryland on the road, and then "The Game" with Ohio State, which is back in The Big House this fall. That three-game stretch from November 11 - 25 will tell us a lot about this Michigan team. They could potentially lose one and still make the College Football Playoff, but the Wolverines don't want to leave it up to chance. They've overcome difficult stretches countless times under Harbaugh, but this year represents a whole new challenge.

2023 X-Factor: Cornelius Johnson, WR

As the world of college football shifts one thing is becoming very clear: you need elite receivers to win National Titles. Sure, Georgia hasn't had a Biletnikoff Award piece on the outside, but they have had Brock Bowers, and a deep receiver corps. Before them, Alabama boasted DeVonta Smith, LSU Ja'Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson, and Clemson a boatload of game-changers on the outside. If Michigan wants to take the next step and win the big one, they are going to need more from this receiver group. It's been a solid unit and Ronnie Bell had no issues leading the way this past fall. But, it simply has not been at the level of the SEC elites and even though Michigan has beaten Ohio State the last two seasons, the Buckeyes feature significantly more firepower at the position. That doesn't mean Michigan is devoid of options, as Cornelius Johnson notched 32 receptions, 499 yards and six touchdowns last season and has the chance to be even more in 2023. He's an athletic build and is a crisp route-runner who leaps out of his breaks, especially near the sideline. With McCarthy getting him the ball, he could take off and be the game-changer at the position that Michigan has lacked. If so, the Wolverine offense becomes much more intimidating, and their chances at a National Championship increase exponentially.

Team Projections

Projected Record: 13-0 (9-0 Big Ten, Win Big Ten Championship)

Offensive MVP: RB Blake Corum

Defensive MVP: LB Junior Colson

Impact Freshman: WR Karmello English

Impact Transfer: OL Drake Nugent

Breakout Player of the Year: TE Colston Loveland

Five-Year Trend

College Football Preview 2023: 2. Georgia Bulldogs

Brock Bowers, Georgia

2. Georgia Bulldogs

With the best top-to-bottom roster in college football and a soft schedule, a three-peat is a real possibility

2022 Review

Georgia entered the 2022 season in uncharted territory, defending their first National Title in four decades. It quickly became clear the Bulldogs were going to be a problem once again, as they opened things up by dominating No. 11 Oregon 49-3 in a game that looked more like a Power Five-Group of Five clash than a Top 25 showdown. That dominance would show itself time and time again, as the Bulldogs raced out to a flawless regular season for the second straight season. Sure, there were the occasional lulls, such as underwhelming performances against Kent State and Missouri, but Georgia took care of business at every opportunity and blew out the vast majority of their competition. Not even the SEC Championship Game matchup with LSU could stand in their way this time, as they dropped 50 points and secured the top overall seed heading into the College Football Playoff. There, they did receive some heavy resistance in the semifinal, falling behind Ohio State and needing a thrilling comeback (plus a missed field goal) to play their way into the National Championship. It looked like it was the wake-up call Kirby Smart and Georgia needed, as they stepped onto the field a week later disciplined, motivated, and hungry for a second consecutive National Title. The result? A 65-7 humiliation of "Cinderella" TCU in one of the most dominant National Championship Game performances in college football's long history. It served as an important reminder that the Bulldogs are the sport's premier program and the team that every other FBS program is looking to take down. It also opened up the door for a three-peat in 2023, which hasn't happened in nearly a century. Lofty goals? Of course, but this program has developed into an absolute machine and just about anything seems possible as they prepare for this fall.

2023 Outlook

Offense: Two of the figureheads of Georgia's impressive back-to-back title runs moved on over the offseason, as offensive coordinator Todd Monken took the Baltimore Ravens OC job and quarterback Stetson Bennett graduated. Monken was replaced by Mike Bobo, an SEC veteran who was already on staff, while a three-man QB competition unfolded to take over for Bennett. Just this week, veteran Carson Beck was unsurprisingly named the starter, beating out sophomore Brock Vandagriff and redshirt freshman Gunner Stockton.

Beck is a rare story in the context of modern college football, a highly touted recruit who waited his turn behind multiple Georgia quarterbacks before getting his opportunity. Now, he has the chance to lead one of college football's rosters, stocked to the brim with skill position talent. Considering how impressive he was in back-up duty last season, completing 74% of his passes with a 4-0 TD-INT ratio, it feels likely he will ready for the big stage. In fact, Beck is my 2023 Heisman Trophy pick.

Beck is blessed with one of the top group of pass-catchers in the SEC, a group that was further bolstered by the offseason additions of Missouri transfer Dominic Lovett and Mississippi State transfer Rara Thomas. Both players led their respective teams in receiving a season ago and should bring additional explosiveness to a receiver room that also includes sophomore Arian Smith and juniors Ladd McConkey and Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint. McConkey is one of my favorite players in college football; on a roster that looks more like an NFL team, he doesn't jump out at you at 6'0", 185 pounds, But, he's been ultra-productive throughout his time in Athens, including going for 58 receptions and 762 yards last fall.

As if the receivers weren't enough, Georgia also just so happens to boast the reigning Mackey Award winner, Brock Bowers. The junior is a tantalizing talent, a well-built tight end who can blow by defenders in the open field, or bully them as a blocker between the hashes. Joining him is sophomore Oscar Delp, who will see his role expand with the departure of Darnell Washington.

With leading rusher Kenny McIntosh also moving on to the pros, juniors Kendall Milton and Daijun Edwards will see their roles continue to expand. Edwards finished second on the team in rushing last fall, with 769 yards, while I still believe Milton can reach another level. He's been solid as a rotational piece his first three seasons on campus, but could be in store for a major breakthrough in his third season on campus.

Up front, the Bulldogs lose a pair of NFL Draft selections in Broderick Jones and Warren McLendon, but should remain one of the best in the country. Guards Tate Ratledge and Xavier Truss are punishing blockers who open up gapping holes in the ground game, while junior Amarius Mims looks ready to step into one of the tackle spots. That will most likely be on the right side, but left tackle remains a bit of a question without a clear favorite to step into the starting role.

Someday, Stetson Bennett's two-year run as Georgia quarterback will be turned into a Hollywood movie. But, that doesn't mean the Bulldog offense has to fall off a cliff with his departure. On the contrary, this unit could be even more lethal, with transfers strengthening the receiver room and capable pieces ready to fill in at key spots. Improving on last year's 41.6 points per game is very much in the cards, and expect several pieces on this offense to be in the mix for prestigious awards.

Defense: The 2021 Georgia defense was arguably the most dominant unit we've seen in college football history, so it was only natural last year's group was going to take a step-back. But, even that regression wasn't a major one, as the 'Dawgs held opponents to just 14.3 points per game and showed out in some of their most important contests. 2023 may even better, as nine starters are back and several players appear poised to step into larger roles after NFL departures.

On the defensive line, Jalen Carter made the expected jump to the pros, but just about every other important piece is back in Athens. Junior nose tackle Nazir Stackhouse sets the tone in the middle, a forceful veteran who is much more athletic than his 320-pound frame may suggest. He's joined by a budding star in defensive end Mykel Williams, while junior Zion Logue appears ready to step into the spot vacated by Carter. Add in Tramel Walthour, who started 13 games in 2022, and Warren Brinson, this is going to be a deep and relentless group all season long.

The Bulldogs continue to be one of college football's premier programs at producing high-quality linebacker talent and will feature one of the top defensive combos in the country in Smael Mondon and Jamon Dumas-Johnson. Not only did the two inside linebackers finish first and second on the team in tackles, they were constant pests in opposing backfields, combing for 12 tackles for loss and a staggering 49 quarterback hurries.

Outside linebacker is the spot to watch at linebacker, as Nolan Smith and Robert Beal both departed over the offseason. Smith turned down the NFL to come back for an additional year, but missed the final seven games of 2022, forcing Beal into a larger role than expected. Although Beal was solid, the Bulldogs could actually upgrade with junior Chaz Chambliss and sophomore Marvin Jones Jr. Jones is a guy I'm particularly high on, making my annual, "Ten Players Poised for the Big Sophomore Leap." He's bulked up over the offseason and receiving plenty of positive reviews, it feels like only a matter of time before he makes his presence felt on this defense.

While the front seven is undoubtedly going to be stout, the pass defense has the most questions on the defense. Safety Christopher Smith and corner Kelee Ringo were crucial components of the defense the last several seasons and both took their talents to the NFL, Smith doing so after earning All-American accolades. With that being said, Georgia continues to recruit and develop this position at an impressive rate, and has one of the sport's rising stars in safety Malaki Starks.

Starks first broke onto the scene with a ridiculous interception in the season-opening blowout of Oregon and continued to get better each and every week, finishing with 68 tackles and seven pass deflections as a true freshman. He's going to make play a critical role at free safety, while junior Javon Bullard appears ready to man strong safety after starting ten games a season ago. At the "Star" position, Georgia is hopeful this is the year Tykee Smith finally puts it together over a full season. The former West Virginia transfer was considered a big get at the time, but has dealt with injuries throughout his time with the 'Dawgs. 

Cornerback Kamari Lassiter made major strides throughout 2022 and will take over as the top player at the position with Ringo gone. Developing more consistency will be the next step, but the junior has both the physical gifts and now the experience to be a difference-maker. It's likely that sophomore Daylen Everette will line up opposite of him after playing in 14 games as a true freshman, but Nyland Green is also expected to play a role. Expected to be an instant contributor to the secondary back in 2021, Green has had two quiet years on campus, but brings size and versatility to the position.

Georgia's defense has become an absolute machine under Kirby Smart, sending a collection of players to the NFL each and every year and simply replacing them with premium, all-world talent. Although a few big names depart, this unit is going to be scary once again and has several pieces on the cusp of superstardom, namely Starks, Williams, and Lassiter. 

Special Teams: It's a mixed bag for Georgia on special teams. On one hand, the Bulldogs lose a reliable kicker in Jack Podlesny, who hit 26 of 31 attempts last fall. On the other, punter Brett Thorson was a revelation as a true freshman last fall and is back, while Ladd McConkey adds some bite to the return game. Kicker will still be an interesting watch, as sophomore Jared Zirkel is hoping to grow from being just a kickoff specialist and ward off newcomer Peyton Woodring for the starting job.

Bottom Line

It always felt like it was only a matter of time before Kirby Smart really got things rolling at his alma mater and two National Titles later, it's pretty safe to say the Bulldogs have arrived. They've become a model program not just in their ability to bring in blue-chip prospects at a dizzying rate, but fit them into the right spots and develop them into NFL Draft picks. It doesn't appear like Georgia is going to slow down at any point soon, either. In fact, 2023 sets up perfectly for the 'Dawgs. They play arguably their easiest schedule of the Smart era, face down an SEC East without a reliable contender beyond Tennessee, and look over a national landscape where several other top-tier contenders are breaking in new quarterbacks. It would not only be a shock, but a major disappointment, if the Bulldogs are not in the College Football Playoff, and as of now they remain the smart pick to hoist the 2023 National Title. I'm not picking them solely because a three-peat is just so difficult but for a team that has won 29 of their 30 games the last two years, just about anything appears to be in the realm of possibility.

Program Profile

Coaching Staff

Kirby Smart enters Year Eight in charge at his alma mater, looking to become the first college coach since Bernie Bierman at Minnesota in the mid-1930s to secure three consecutive National Titles. He will do so with a new offensive coordinator, albeit a familiar face in Mike Bobo. Bobo, who played with Smart at Georgia in the 1990s, is now on his third coaching stint in Athens. He served as an offensive analyst last fall, but made the expected jump to OC following Todd Monken's decision to head to the NFL. On defense, co-coordinators Glen Schumann and Will Muschamp were tremendous in their respective positions in 2022 and will are back again. Schumann, who followed Smart from Alabama, served as the team's ILB coach before the promotion to co-DC and should be a name to watch as a head coaching candidate in the future. Muschamp, for all his struggles as head coach at both Florida and South Carolina, remains an elite defensive mind. He served under two of the best to ever do it in Nick Saban and Mack Brown and is also very familiar with the program, playing safety here from 1991-1994.

Recruiting Breakdown

Georgia remains a force to be reckoned with on the recruiting trail, coming in just behind Alabama with the No. 2 group in the Class of 2023. There are five players with five-star billing, including elite defenders like linemen Jordan Hall, linebacker Raylen Wilson, and corner A.J. Harris. All three have measurables that project extremely well to the next level and should develop rapidly, although they may have to wait their turns. The exception could be Harris, a route-jumping defender who comes in at a cornerback spot where depth could be a concern. Another name to watch defensively is edge Samuel M'Pemba, who Georgia locked down over a host of Southeast powers. The 6'3", 245-pounder probably plays outside linebacker at the collegiate level, but he has a skillset that could be used just about anywhere. He even played slot receiver during his high school career and is exceptionally quick for his size. On the offensive side of this class, look for tackles Monroe Fleering and Bo Hughley to be long-term building blocks for this line in the long-term. Freeling could even be in the mix for snaps right away at left tackle and has the looks of a seasoned college veteran.

2023 Schedule Analysis

As if there weren't already enough reasons to buy into Georgia for 2023, they face down what may be the easiest schedule in college football. Their four non-conference games are going to be treated more as warm-up or preseason games than true tests, with UT-Martin, Ball State, and UAB at home, and Georgia Tech on the road. In SEC play, things kick off with South Carolina at Sanford Stadium, and the 'Dawgs also get Auburn on the road, Kentucky at home, and Vanderbilt on the road before the bye. That bye kicks off a second half that does include a road tilt with Tennessee, but is very easy beyond that. The Florida game is in its usual neutral site location of Jacksonville, but the 'Dawgs have won five of six in the rivalry game and the Gators don't exactly inspire confidence heading into the fall. What's truly amazing about the schedule isn't just the soft non-conference but the fact that just about every potential land-mine is at home, with the notable exception being Tennessee. South Carolina, Kentucky, or Ole Miss could all be at least interesting if they got Georgia at the right time on the road. Instead, they'll all have to travel to Sanford Stadium and face college football's Goliath, a team that should be favored comfortably in all 12 of their regular season games.

2023 X-Factor: Kendall Milton, RB

For as successful as Georgia has been the last two seasons, they've done so without a true star back leading the way. The ground game has still been extremely productive but has instead leaned on a committee approach, a change-of-pace for a program that has produced names like Todd Gurley, Nick Chubb, Sony Michel, and D'Andre Swift over the last decade. Heading into 2023, Georgia is still likely to deploy a balanced approach, but I am curious to see whether this is finally the year junior Kendall Milton takes charge of the backfield. Milton was, unsurprisingly, a big-name recruit coming out of high school who looked like the next big thing but has instead split carries with Kenny McIntosh and Daijun Edwards. He's still been productive, including rushing for 592 yards and eight touchdowns a season ago, but I'm still under the impression there's another gear he can hit this fall. If that's the case and Milton finally gets it together in his fourth year on campus, this Georgia offense is downright terrifying. Even if he doesn't, I still suspect Milton to play an outsized role, at least early on, as the Bulldogs break in Carson Beck at quarterback.

Team Projections

Projected Record: 12-1 (8-0 SEC, Lose SEC Championship Game)

Offensive MVP: QB Carson Beck

Defensive MVP: S Malaki Starks

Impact Freshman: CB A.J. Harris

Impact Transfer: WR Dominic Lovett

Breakout Player of the Year: DE Mykel Williams

Five Year Trend

College Football Preview 2023: 3. Alabama Crimson Tide

Kool-Aid McKinstry, Alabama

3. Alabama Crimson Tide

It's never smart to bet on the Tide being "down" for long; they should be back with ferocity in 2023

2022 Review

Within the first several weeks of 2022, it became clear that there were chinks in the armor of the mighty Alabama Crimson Tide. They got all they could handle in Week Two on the road against Texas, but managed to fight off the Longhorns in a 20-19 victory. Despite this, they would win go on to win their next three games, staving off Texas A&M in another nail-biter without Bryce Young, who went down with injury in the win over Arkansas. But, the Tide were caught on the wrong side of a close game a week later, as the defense was exposed by Hendon Hooker and Tennessee, losing in the "Third Week of October" rivalry for the first time in a decade-and-a-half. Alabama responded by dominating Mississippi State, but were caught in another brutal road game, this time in Baton Rouge, as LSU's gutsy two-point conversion call in overtime secured them the SEC West. Credit where credit is due, Nick Saban and staff still kept Alabama on track for the final month of the season when it appeared they had nothing to play for. They won their final three regular season games and then blew out Kansas State in the Sugar Bowl, finishing with an 11-2 mark. To most around the country, such a season would have been a resounding success, but expectations are different in Tuscaloosa. Saban shuffled his staff and made notable changes to the program after what could only be described as a "down" year. In doing so, he's hoping to keep the Tide perched near the top of college football and on pace with the sport's new superpower, the Georgia Bulldogs.

2023 Outlook

Offense: Life after Bryce Young begins this fall, as the Tide will have to make do without the 2021 Heisman winner and No. 1 overall pick this next spring. His absence will leave Saban and new offensive coordinator Tommy Rees choosing between a trio of candidates, none of which have separated themselves at this point in the process.

Tyler Buchner was a late, post-spring addition to the roster and will pair back up with his former play-caller in Rees. Yet, the former Notre Dame QB struggled mightily when he was healthy in 2022, and decision-making seems to be a problem, as he finished with a 3-5 TD-INT ratio last fall. Alabama did bring him in for a reason, and his familiarity with Rees gives him a slight advantage, but don't count out either sophomore Jalen Milroe or redshirt freshman Ty Simpson. Milroe was the one who started the A&M game last season and is a dynamic runner, while Simpson has been receiving positive press throughout all of fall camp. This feels like it could be a situation like 2016, where Blake Barnett emerged as the starter early, before Jalen Hurts eventually took over and become the guy later on.

Whoever does start at quarterback will need more from a receiver corps that was one of the worst of the Saban era in 2022. Former Georgia transfer Jermaine Burton didn't quite take off as some expected after arriving in Tuscaloosa but still led the team in yardage, while Ja'Corey Brooks took a big leap and finished No. 2. Those two are expected to be the leaders of the unit, while names like Koby Prentice, Thaiu Jones-Bell, and Isaiah Bond also factor in. Bond is a guy I'm watching with a close eye, an explosive player who could be something special if he rounds out the fundamentals.

Cameron Latu departs at tight end after a solid season, meaning that junior C.J. Dippre has an inside track on the starting job after arriving from Maryland. He's not the athlete Alabama has had at the position in the past, but is a decent pass-catcher and adept blocker. There's not much behind him, which could benefit newcomer Ty Lockwood, who was in for spring.

Alabama will certainly miss tailback Jahmyr Gibbs, who not only led the team in rushing but was a major factor in the passing game. My Heisman pick a season ago, Gibbs was a first-round selection by the Detroit Lions, opening the door for Jase McClellan to emerge as the feature option. McClellan appears ready, notching 655 yards and seven touchdowns in 2022, but this may still be a slight downgrade. He'll be joined by veteran Roydell Williams and true frosh Justice Haynes, one of the shining stars of the spring.

After a down 2021, Alabama's offensive line made major improvements last fall, but watched three starters depart over the offseason. Even so, this unit should still be among the best in the SEC, with junior J.C. Latham ready to emerge as the next great Tide tackle. He'll be joined by proven pieces in Darrian Dalcourt and Seth McLaughlin, but it looks like we could have a true freshman starter at left tackle. That true freshman happens to be five-star Kadyn Proctor, who looked the part in the spring, but how he handles life in the SEC as a freshman will have a major impact on the offense overall.

It feels like this is the most questions we've had about an Alabama offense heading into a season for quite awhile, but there's still reason for optimism. There's plenty of playmaking at the skill positions and the O-Line should be strong. That should take some of the pressure off whoever emerges at QB, and I believe a return to a ground-oriented offense under Rees should help this unit establish much more consistency in 2023.

Defense: Alabama's defense has remained an NFL factory and statistically strong. Yet, several poor showings lead to a feeling of uneasiness around the unit, and it wasn't surprising that coordinator Pete Goulding moved on over the offseason and accepted the Ole Miss DC job. 

Veteran coordinator Kevin Steele is now back in the SEC to run this defense after a two-year hiatus, but will have to make do without a bunch of key pieces to last year's defense. That includes Will Anderson Jr., one of the most dominant Tide defenders we've ever seen.

The good news is that the Alabama front should remain stout, particularly a defensive line whose only main loss was end Byron Young. Young is a notable loss, but juniors Tim Smith and Justin Ebiogbe have played plenty of snaps throughout their Tide career and shouldn't have trouble being the main pass rushing force. At nose guard, sophomore Jaheim Oatis was a pleasant surprise in 2022, with 29 tackles, and there's still hope that Damon Payne could evolve into a reliable contributor up front.

The departure of Anderson provides plenty of opportunity for junior Dallas Turner to emerge as the next great Alabama pass rusher. Turner notched 8.5 sacks as a true freshman in 2021 and although his numbers took a slight dip last year, he remains a force to be reckoned with. The 6'4", 242-pounder has a similar build to Anderson, but is even quicker with his first step and a slithery, relentless defender.

Unfortunately, there's a whole bunch of questions in the linebacker corps beyond Turner. "STAR" DeMarcco Hellams, middle linebacker Henry To'o To'o, and Jaylen Moody all departed and will leave a major production and leadership void. The blow was softened by the transfer of Trezmen Marshall, who played in 35 games at Georgia over a four-year career and has a proven pedigree, but the other two spots are up for grabs. Sophomore Deontae Lawson made strides last fall and should fit in somewhere, as he's actually their top returning tackler, as will talented youngsters Keanu Koht and Keon Keeley.

Along with Turner, the star of the show defensively for the Tide will be junior corner Kool-Aid McKinstry, who will lead a secondary that has a chance to be very strong. McKinstry not only has an elite name, he's backed it up with a pair of impressive campaigns, including a 2022 in which he earned All-SEC recognition. He's set to be their No. 1 corner once again, while rising sophomore Terrion Arnold should start alongside him after making seven starts in 2022.

It will be interesting to see whether this is the year Malachi Moore finally has his true breakout on the back-end. He was a Freshman All-American after starring on the 2020 National Title team and looked like he was well on his way to superstardom, but has followed it up with two back-to-back underwhelming seasons. This will be a big year for him, as he also has to hold off UAB transfer Jaylen Key at free safety. 

At the other safety spot, watch for true freshman Caleb Downs to come in and start right away. The younger brother of former UNC star wide receiver Josh, Caleb Downs was one of the best players regardless of position in the Class of 2023 and earned rave reviews throughout spring. He looks like he could be a special talent and from everything we've heard, shouldn't be intimidated by starting as a true freshman at all.

There could be some growing pains as Steele acclimates to his personnel, particularly with so many fresh faces likely to play important roles. Yet, this is Alabama, so there's no shortage of talent and enough star power to carry this unit to improved numbers this fall.

Special Teams: For years, it was a running gag that kicker was Alabama's kryptonite, but Will Reichard has dispelled that notion. The deadeye veteran went 22-26 on field goals last fall, with a long of 52, and should be a leading candidate for the Lou Groza Award in 2023. Punter is also in good hands, with junior James Burnip, while McKinstry and Ja'Corey Brooks will make up for the loss of Jahmyr Gibbs in the return game.

Bottom Line

It's a reminder of just how utterly dominant Alabama has been the last decade-and-a-half that a season in which they won 11 games and a New Year's Six bowl was considered such a disappointment. Instead, that should scare the rest of the SEC and nation as a whole. Every single "down" campaign that Nick Saban has had since taking over at Alabama, they've come back with a vengeance the season after. Simply look back at 2019, the first time the Tide missed the College Football Playoff, they responded with a dominant, undefeated 2020 in which they were clearly a step above every single team in the country. There are questions about this team, sure, particularly at quarterback and at spots on defense, but this is a program that won a National Title with Jake Coker under center. I have little doubt they will be firmly in the National Title mix once more and Georgia's rise should provide additional motivation. I'm picking the Tide to return to the Playoff this fall and it would not shock me in the least if Saban is hoisting his seventh National Title when it's all said and done.

Program Profile

Coaching Staff

Nick Saban enters Year 17 at the helm at Alabama and doesn't appear to be slowing down anytime soon. Under his leadership, Alabama has finished in the Top 10 of the final standings 12 straight years and Saban is on the quest to bring his seventh National Title back to Tuscaloosa. He will hope to do so with a pair of new coordinators alongside him, as Tommy Rees takes over offensively and Kevin Steele on defense. The 31-year old Rees was playing at Notre Dame just a decade ago and rose quickly through the coaching ranks, taking over as Irish OC in 2020. With Steele, the Tide get a proven defensive mind with four decades of college coaching experience. He's served two separate stints at Alabama, including roles as director of player personnel and LB coach under Saban, and knows the SEC landscape incredibly well. He spent 2021 with the Miami Hurricanes, but should be ready for a better year now that he's in familiar territory.

Recruiting Breakdown

There's been some slipping on-the-field for Alabama in recent years, at least compared to the impossibly high standards the program has set, but the Tide remain an absolute force on the recruiting trail. They bring in the top class in the nation this cycle, with several players who could start right away. Defensive end Keon Keeley, tackle Kadyn Proctor, and safety Caleb Downs were all Top 10 prospects and the top players at their respective positions. Proctor was a longtime Iowa commit who flipped right before Early Signing Day and now looks to be a starter in 2023, while Keeley was formerly committed to Notre Dame. Two other players that could be headed for immediate playing time is tailback Justice Haynes and wide out Malik Benson. Haynes dominated in the spring game and brings an explosive presence to this Tide backfield, while Benson is the top junior college transfer in the nation, coming from Hutchinson CC in Kansas. He might not have the pedigree of some of the other pieces in this Alabama receiver room, but his experience, even at the JUCO level, should be a valuable asset among a very young offense.

2023 Schedule Analysis

For the second straight year, Alabama's non-conference slate will include a familiar foe, as they face off with Steve Sarkisian and Texas, this time in Tuscaloosa. The Tide have won 56 straight non-conference games, but the Longhorns will be an especially tough test the second week of the season. After a road meeting with South Florida a week later, SEC action begins at Bryant-Denny with Ole Miss. It's a road tilt with Mississippi State a week later, then an interesting October for the Tide. Texas A&M has given them a stiff challenge in recent years and Alabama has to travel to Kyle Field this fall. Arkansas and Tennessee home games will round out their second month, with the Tide's bye coming at a very favorable part of their schedule. It will be right after the rematch of the "Third Saturday in October" and right before LSU on November 4th, with the Tigers also coming off a bye. The final two road games of the year aren't easy, either, with Kentucky and Auburn in the Iron Bowl but fortunately Alabama does get them split up by their usual late-season cupcake, Chattanooga. Overall, the schedule does include plenty of landmines, but the Tide get their three toughest opponents all at home (Texas, Tennessee, LSU). Add in the bye coming at the right time, the schedule sets up nicely for a redemptive 2023 in Tuscaloosa.

2023 X-Factor: Kadyn Proctor, OT

All eyes are on Alabama's quarterback competition entering the fall, but whoever emerges should have enough weapons around them to put together a quality campaign. No, the position I'm most curious about for the Tide in 2023 is left tackle, as Tyler Steen departs after starting all 13 contests last season. The position has always been one of strength for the Tide under Saban and there's plenty of talent available, but it's looking more and more like true freshman Kadyn Proctor come could in and start right away. Proctor is a special talent, a five-star prospect from Iowa who certainly has an NFL future, but starting in the SEC at such a young age? Redshirt freshman Elijah Pritchett is the main player battling him for the starting job and while Pritchett does have some experience, playing in two games in 2022, he doesn't have Proctor's upside. That should make this position battle an interesting watch heading into the fall, one that should have an impact on Alabama's National Title hopes.

Team Projections

Projected Record: 12-1 (7-1 SEC, Win SEC Championship Game)

Offensive MVP: OT J.C. Latham

Defensive MVP: CB Kool-Aid McKinstry

Impact Freshman: S Caleb Downs

Impact Transfer: LB Trezmen Marshall

Breakout Player of the Year: CB Terrion Arnold

Five Year Trend

College Football Preview 2023: 4. USC Trojans

Caleb Williams, USC

4. USC Trojans

If the defense makes even modest improvements, the program's first-ever CFB Playoff appearance is within reach

2022 Review

The Lincoln Riley era started off with a bang, as USC ripped off six straight victories to begin the 2022 campaign, including a 3-0 start within the Pac-12. Going on the road to Salt Lake City, the Trojans were a field goal underdog to Utah and despite holding a lead for the majority of the game, came up short in a 43-42 heartbreaker. Instead of the loss spoiling their season, USC responded with another win streak, with five straight victories capped off by resume-boosting wins over UCLA and Notre Dame. At 11-1, the Trojans were poised to make their first-ever College Football Playoff appearance, as long as they took care of business against Utah in the Pac-12 Championship Game. But again, the Utes had their number and a beat up Caleb Williams wasn't able to muster a comeback, resulting in a 47-24 defeat. The loss sent them to the Cotton Bowl to face Group of Five representative Tulane, in which USC entered as the heavy favorite. The Trojans once more outplayed their opponent throughout the majority of sixty minutes, holding a two-touchdown lead heading into the final minutes. But the Green Wave pulled off a spectacular comeback, securing a safety and scoring a go-ahead touchdown with just seconds remaining on the game clock. In the end, Riley's debut resulted in an 11-3 season, certainly an impressive season, but one that fell flat in the end. As the Trojans prepare for life in the Big Ten in 2024, they're hopeful to rid some of last fall's demons and conclude their time in the Pac-12 with a conference title.

2023 Outlook

Offense: Lincoln Riley succeeded in bringing his high-octane offense to the West Coast in 2023, as the Trojans finished third in the nation with 41.4 points per game. At the heart of the offense was the quarterback he brought with him from Oklahoma, Caleb Williams, who became Riley's third Heisman Trophy winner in under a decade as the head man.

From the moment he stepped on the field at Oklahoma, it was clear Williams was special. His first appearance in college football ended with a thrilling comeback in the Red River Showdown over Texas and he followed it up with a superb second half of 2021. But even so, his progression last fall was extremely impressive, finishing with nearly 5,000 yards of total offense and 52 total touchdowns. The key for him in 2023 will be maintaining the consistency and improved decision-making he showed last, while staying healthy. His legs are such a key component of his playmaking, but last year's Pac-12 Championship Game proved that it can have detrimental long-term effects on the entire team.

Alongside the reigning Heisman Trophy winner in the USC backfield will be former Stanford transfer Austin Jones, who is set to take over feature back duties after the departure of Travis Dye. There's nothing particularly flashy about the veteran tailback, but he's been highly productive throughout his entire career and should have no troubles handling the load in 2023. However, newcomer MarShawn Lloyd looks ready to challenge him for carries, as long he's able to stay healthy. The South Carolina transfer never quite put it together in the SEC, but is a talented ball-carrier who should be able to take advantage of this wide-open offense.

At receiver, Jordan Addison made the expected jump to the pros after a one-year pit-stop in Southern California. His numbers weren't quite as strong as they were during his 2021 Biletnikoff campaign, but he remained an explosive vertical threat that opened up this entire unit. Despite his departure, it's hard to imagine the receiver corps taking too much of a step back in 2023.

Tahj Washington and Mario Williams look more than capable of emerging as the top weapons in the passing attack after finishing second and third in receiving a season ago. Both former transfers, Williams joined Riley and Caleb in their trek to USC last offseason and has proven he's a threat to take it to the house every time he touches the ball. Brenden Rice, the son of football legend Jerry, is also back in town after putting together a productive campaign in his first season since transferring from Colorado.

The trio of Washington, Williams, and Rice is enough to overwhelm any defense, but the newcomers in the receiver corps are what I find most fascinating about this offense. True freshmen Zachariah Branch and Makai Lemon were big-time gets by Riley and staff and are going to be terrorizing defenses for years to come. Branch in particular is one of the most pure athletes you'll find anywhere in college football, and USC is going to find creative ways to get him on the field. There's also Arizona transfer Dorian Singer, who put up 1,406 yards over two seasons on some shaky Wildcat offenses. In a Riley offense, he could be an absolutely potent addition.

One other fresh face to watch is tight end Duce Robinson, who is sure to factor in somewhere. Widely considered the top player at his position in the Class of 2023, it's only a matter of time before Robinson makes his presence felt. Riley has used tight ends creatively in the past while at Oklahoma and at the very least, Robinson's 6'6" frame makes his a red zone threat.

All the attention on Riley-coached teams tend to be on the skill positions and for good reason, but he's typically had strong offensive lines to spring all that talent. That appears to be the case again in 2023, as three starters are back on an offensive line that was a Joe Moore Award semifinalist last fall. Senior center Justin Dedich is the anchor, but guard Jarrett Kingston, a Washington State transfer, and tackle Jonah Monheim are proven pieces who should play a crucial role. 

USC has a storied history of incredible offenses, led by living legends of the collegiate game like Matt Leinart, Reggie Bush, Marcus Allen, and more. Yet, it feels like this 2023 offense could go down as the best in school history, assuming all the major pieces stay healthy. Caleb Williams appears ready to go for a grand encore and the skill position talent around him is not only talented, it's deep. Add in a quality offensive line, the Trojans are going to keep scoreboard operators busy all of 2023.

Defense: The pressure is on for defensive coordinator Alex Grinch, who has long been considered a rising name in the college coaching world but is coming off a rough 2022. In his first season at the helm of the Trojan defense, Grinch watched the defense surrender nearly 424 yards per game (106th nationally) and 29.2 points per game (94th nationally). However, the Trojans are hopeful several big-name transfers can help the unit take a major leap forward after such an underwhelming campaign.

Losing edge rushers Tuli Tuipulotu and Nick Figueroa puts significant pressure on the D-Line, which was generally their top unit throughout 2022. Tuipulotu finished as the Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year after notching 13.5 sacks, forcing the Trojans to dig through the transfer portal to replicate his lost production. Anthony Lucas comes over from Texas A&M and converted quarterback Jamil Muhammed from Georgia State, both who could be heading for starting spots. USC also remains hopeful Korey Foreman can finally put it all together at end after two quiet seasons. Foreman was the nation's top recruit coming out of high school and certainly has talent, but there's been something missing. He's now draft eligible, so should be able to find ample motivation this fall.

The interior defensive line was also bolstered through the portal, as Bear Alexander comes over from Georgia, Kyon Barrs from Arizona, and Jack Sullivan from Purdue. Alexander is the most important get, a former five-star prospect who wasn't able to separate himself in Georgia's front seven, but brings immediate playmaking ability to 'SC. Barrs brings proven Pac-12 experience and should be in line for a starting job after making 23 starts over four years with the Wildcats.

The losses along the defensive line will put outsized pressure on a linebacker corps that struggled mightily at times in 2022. However, there's hopes for major improvements, thanks to one more year of experience for the youngsters, along with a valuable transfer in Mason Cobb. Cobb notched 96 tackles for Oklahoma State a year ago and will slide into a leadership role at middle linebacker, while the Trojans are also hoping for more from Shane Lee and Eric Gentry, two former transfers themselves. Lee flashed potential in 2022 and could be even better with another year in the program, while Gentry has the build (6'6", 205 pounds) to evolve into a feared pass rusher off the edge.

Much like the defensive line, it's a mixed bag in the secondary, as the Trojans bring back plenty of talent but will be without their top piece in the unit, corner Mekhi Blackmon. Blackmon was a crucial component of the 2022 defense, consistently taking on opponent's No. 1 receiver and finishing with 67 tackles, 12 pass deflections, and three interceptions. 

With Blackmon moving on, USC will be forced to rely on a talented, but unproven, trio of sophomores at cornerbacks. Domani Jackson was a five-star prospect who didn't quite make the impact that was expected of him in 2022, but has significant breakout potential. Instead, Ceyair Wright was the impactful freshman corner, making 11 starts, and will be make once again, while Prophet Brown should also factor into the rotation. Add in Arizona transfer Christian Roland-Wallace, another veteran who came over from Arizona, the cornerback position feels like it's in a much better spot entering 2023.

Both starting safeties, juniors Calen Bullock and Max Williams are back, as is nickelback Jaylin Smith. There's also former Ohio State transfer Bryson Shaw, giving this unit plenty of options, and plenty of reasons to believe the pass defense can continue to take steps forward.

USC doesn't need a shutdown, Top 10 defense to achieve their goals of a Pac-12 Title and College Football Playoff appearance. But they do need some semblance of consistency from this side of the ball and more importantly, the unit to show up in their biggest games. There's no shortage of talent and the transfers have had time to gel; it's on Grinch and staff to put it all together into a strong, cohesive group.

Special Teams: After an uneven year for the Trojan special teams, there is hopes this is another group that could be in store for a resurgent 2023. Kicker Denis Lynch returns after going 15-22 on field goals last fall, while Arizona State transfer Eddie Czaplicki could an improvement at punter. The return game is still looking for someone to emerge, although Raleek Brown flashed at several points a season ago.

Bottom Line

The Trojans arrived earlier than expected under Lincoln Riley in his first year on the West Coast. The transfers clicked right away, Caleb Williams developed into the face of college football, and the offense was among the most exciting in college football. But at the same time, the final two games of the year proved that there was still plenty of work to be done and that USC's return to national relevance was unlikely to be an easy process. As they prepare for 2023, there's reason to believe the Trojans can continue on their upwards trajectory, especially if the defensive transfers acclimate quickly. But, a tough schedule and an improved conference, in what looks to be the final year of the Pac-12, are significant enough barriers to still remain wary about the Trojans chances. I believe they're ready to break through and secure USC's first Playoff berth of all-time, but this will be the year where Riley and his staff will demonstrate their coaching chops.

Program Profile

Coaching Staff

In a decade-and-a-half Lincoln Riley has gone from WR coach at his alma mater, Texas Tech, to one of the best head coaches anywhere in NCAA football. He went 55-10 over five years at Oklahoma after taking over from legendary head coach Bob Stoops and proved he could build things up in a hurry by winning 11 games during his debut season at USC. Riley's chief goal for this fall is bringing the Trojans to the College Football Playoff, but he's also looking fo his resume by winning his first game once he gets there. At offensive coordinator, Josh Henson is back, although Riley will once again handle play-calling duties. Henson joined up with Riley after spending three seasons as OL coach under Jimbo Fisher at Texas A&M. Alex Grinch reprises his role as defensive coordinator, but is under a bit of pressure after such an underwhelming 2022. He joined up with Riley at Oklahoma in 2019 and followed him to 'SC, but first made a name for himself as Washington State DC from 2015-2017. Still just 43 years of age, he's looking to get his career back on track and re-establish himself as a future head coach.

Recruiting Breakdown

Lincoln Riley's first offseason at USC was all about the transfer portal, but both him and his staff followed that up with a stellar showing in the high school recruiting scene. The Trojans brought in the eighth-ranked class nationally, punctuated by a trio of five-star prospects. Those three, QB Malachi Nelson, wide out Zachariah Branch, and tight end Duce Robinson all have bright futures and should wreak havoc on opposing defenses in this Riley offense. Nelson is going to operate as the backup to Caleb Williams for at least a year, but both Branch and Robinson could see immediate playing time. Branch in particular is a freakish athlete from Las Vegas powerhouse Bishop Gorman who USC is going to get the football. Makai Lemon from inside the state could also be in line for immediate snaps; he doesn't come in with as much fanfare as Branch, but is an ultra-versatile that can also be used in creative ways. For all the instant impact offensive pieces, there are numerous defenders who are also going to play a long-term role, namely linebacker/safety Tackett Curtis, who was in for spring. At 6'2", 225 pounds, Curtis has the physique to play at either spot at a high level. He was a statement get from SEC country, coming all the way to Southern Cal from Louisiana.

2023 Schedule Analysis

USC feasted on a buttery soft opening to their schedule in 2022 and this fall isn't much different. The Trojans aren't significantly tested until they go on the road to Notre Dame, although a home game a week prior with Arizona could be tricky. In fact, USC's first three Pac-12 foes are arguably the three worst teams in the league: Stanford, Arizona State, and Colorado. While this soft start should give USC plenty of momentum, it could actually work against them, particularly when you consider they have an early bye in mid-September. It means that they have one of the toughest back-loaded slates anywhere in the country, with a final five games that includes that Notre Dame game, Utah, Washington, Oregon, and UCLA. Fortunately, they do get Utah, Washington, and UCLA all in the Coliseum, but even managing to go 4-1 in that stretch is going to take all the Trojans can handle. 

2023 X-Factor: Bear Alexander, DT

USC's defensive front was pushed around far too often last fall, particularly in their three losses. If they want to compete with the true elites of the college football world, the Georgias, the Michigans, the Alabamas, they need better play in the trenches. Unfortunately, that could be more difficult this fall with the absences of impact edge rushers Tuli Tuipulotu and Nick Figueroa, two players who played a crucial role on this team last season. That means USC is going to lean particularly hard on all the transfers they brought into the defensive line, including Bear Alexander from Georgia. Alexander was one of the top recruits in the country when he arrived in Athens and although he played in 12 games, he wasn't able to quite make his presence felt. With Georgia's losses over the offseason, it looked like Alexander was in line for a breakout campaign, but instead made the decision to enter the transfer portal in the spring and head west. Georgia's loss is certainly USC's gain, as Alexander is expected to come in and play a crucial role at the nose tackle position, setting the tone for this Trojan rush defense. If he's able to come in and make his presence felt, the Trojan front seven has a chance to be much improved but if the transfers struggle to gel, another frustrating season could be on the horizon in Southern Cal.

Team Projections

Projected Record: 12-1 (8-1 Pac-12, Win Pac-12 Championship Game)

Offensive MVP: QB Caleb Williams

Defensive MVP: LB Mason Cobb

Impact Freshman: TE Duce Robinson

Impact Transfer: DT Bear Alexander

Breakout Player of the Year: CB Domani Jackson

Five Year Trend