Friday, October 25, 2019

College Football Picks 2019: Week Nine

Current Picks Record: 45-19 (4-5 Upset)
(#13) Wisconsin Badgers @ (#3) Ohio State Buckeyes
Jack Coan, Wisconsin
One week removed from a stunning road loss to Illinois, Wisconsin hopes to get back into the Playoff conversation by taking down the Big Ten favorite, Ohio State. It is certainly easier said than done, as the Badgers will have to beat a Buckeye squad whose closest game at this point in the season was a 34-10 drubbing of Michigan State. There isn't any secret how Wisconsin will aim to move the ball in this one: using Jonathan Taylor. Even with their loss last Saturday, Taylor added 132 yards, bumping him up to 957 in total this year. He has had no troubles running through gaping holes this offensive line leaves him, but this Ohio State rush defense is no joke. Once a real problem in 2018, the Buckeyes' defense as a whole has looked vastly improved. They have speed at every level, experience, and a number of future All-Americans. If they're able to slow down Taylor even a little bit, the Buckeyes have to feel confident they can stop Jack Coan. Coan remains a smart, methodical signal-caller who rarely turns the ball over, but can he really make big throws against this OSU secondary? I think Wisconsin is going to have to use screens and short-passes creatively to manufacture yards in the aerial attack. The good news is that the Badger defense remains one of the best in the entire nation, and well-suited to slow down this Ohio State offense. Linebackers Chris Orr, Zack Baun and Jack Sanborn really set the tone for the entire group, and they will be tasked with slowing down a flaming hot OSU ground game. Junior tailback J.K. Dobbins has asserted himself as a legitimate Heisman contender for his play in 2019, and he can form a potent 1-2 punch with QB Justin Fields, an always-dangerous dual threat. Add in Fields' deep ball ability, paired with home run hitter Binjimen Victor and consistent K.J. Hill, this Buckeye offense has so many different ways they can hurt you. It will be fascinating to watch this Badger secondary handle this passing attack, as they haven't really seen much quality passing teams so far this season. Defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard is still going to have his guys ready. Even though Wisconsin doesn't appear to have the offensive options Ohio State has, that hard-nosed, well-coached defense should be able to keep them competitive deep into the second half. However, I just don't see the Badgers being able to keep up for all sixty minutes. There is just not enough they can do enough offensively, unless Taylor has an absolute signature outing, which seems doubtful against this OSU defensive front.
The Pick: Ohio State, 30 Wisconsin, 21

(#9) Auburn Tigers @ (#2) LSU Tigers
Already equipped with two massive wins, over Florida and Texas, LSU will have an opportunity to further strengthen their resume against Auburn. Auburn remains a dark horse Playoff threat, although they'd have to find a way to run the table against a remaining schedule of LSU, Alabama and Georgia. That's a tall order, even for a team equipped with a strong defense and a fabulous, versatile rushing attack. The key for this LSU game will be finding a way to slow down Joe Burrow, who has locked himself down as the Heisman favorite at this point in the campaign. Burrow has flourished behind a quality O-Line, and with loads of playmakers on the perimeter, namely Justin Jefferson and Ja'Marr Chase. This Auburn pass rush has proven it can get after the QB,  thanks to Derrick Brown, Marlon Davidson and Nick Coe. However, somebody in the secondary is going to have to step up and make plays. Coordinator Kevin Steele has his work cut out for him, but this is a talented group ready for a challenge. On offense, Bo Nix continues to have the ups-and-downs to be expected of a true freshman quarterback playing in the unforgiving SEC. He responded admirably after a rough game against Florida by tossing for three scores against Arkansas, but now he faces a secondary that could easily claim to be the country's best. Not only does safety Grant Delpit remain a Jim Thorpe Award favorite, true freshman corner Derek Stingley Jr. looks like the best freshman in the entire nation. I expect the Tigers to keep Nix away from throwing too much, and instead lean on a ground game that is really hitting its stride. "Boobie" Whitlow leads as the feature back, but Gus Malzahn can also throw in Kam Martin, Nix, Shaun Sivers and even wide out Anthony Schwartz, who is an absolute demon on jet sweeps. The LSU defense has not seen an offense that can hit you in so many ways, which could give them some troubles. They'll need a physical defensive line to get into the backfield, while also making some difficult tackles in space. This matchup has proven to be very low-scoring in year's past, but I don't see that being the case in 2019. Both offenses are going make plays against these defenses, but limiting turnovers and maintaining possession will be key. While I think Auburn should able to keep up with Burrow and company, I'm less confident that they will be able to slow them down. Even though they may get caught looking ahead towards their possible 1-2 matchup with Alabama, I'm taking LSU to win in front of the home folks in Baton Rouge.
The Pick: LSU, 38 Auburn, 34

(#8) Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ (#19) Michigan Wolverines
With their Playoff hopes now in the drain following their second loss of the season, Michigan now plays the role as spoiler as they play Notre Dame in Ann Arbor Saturday. The Irish remain on the outside looking in, but if they win here, they have a very good shot to run the table, staring down a favorable remaining schedule. The hope for Notre Dame here is that they can finally get their aerial attack going, as it has been slow to start all season. Veteran QB Ian Book remains effective, but the lack of a downfield passing attack has really limited what this offense can do. They have been aided by the play of Tony Jones at running back. Jones has rushed for 100 or more yards their last three games, and shouldn't be slowing down anytime soon. While the Wolverine defense has been solid against the run, he should still be able to find opportunities. Michigan must also find a good matchup to cover top ND wide out Chase Claypool. At 6'4", 230 pounds with a massive catch radius, Claypool can be a real matchup problem for defenses, and this is already a UM secondary that has struggled to find any consistency. On the other side of the ball, the Irish feature an attacking defensive style that utilizes their athletic defensive front. They have to feel confident going up against a Michigan offense that continues to struggle. While Shea Patterson didn't play bad against Penn State last weekend, he continues to be erratic and doesn't feel pressure very well. It would be very helpful if he had a quality rushing attack to take some of the pressure off of him, but surprisingly, this Michigan team just hasn't been able to run the ball. True freshman Zach Charbonnet remains their go-to guy, but somebody else really needs to step up in the backfield. The Irish secondary doesn't appear as strong as their front seven, so perhaps there will be some chances for Patterson and this UM offense downfield. Even though he wasn't able to reel in the game-tying catch against PSU, Ronnie Bell remains their most consistent weapon, although Michigan would love to get other guys involved, namely Nico Collins and Donovan Peoples-Jones. However, the ultimate X-factor is the Wolverine offensive line, which could ultimately decide this game. I thought they did a good job against the Nittany Lions, but if they struggle to contain this relentless ND pass rush, I don't see any chance that this offense has success. Going into the Big House and coming out with a victory is a tall order for any team, but I actually like the chances for the Irish here. The offense seems to be slowing getting its act together, and there are just too many questions for Michigan at this point.
The Pick: Notre Dame, 27 Michigan, 20

Other Picks
(#5) Oklahoma @ Kansas State: Oklahoma, 44 Kansas State, 23
(#6) Penn State @ Michigan State: Penn State, 24 Michigan State, 17
Oklahoma State @ (#23) Iowa State: Iowa State, 38 Oklahoma State, 30
Duke @ UNC: UNC, 28 Duke, 27
Upset: UCLA, 35 Arizona State, 31

Friday, October 18, 2019

College Football Picks 2019: Week Eight

Current Picks Record: 39-17 (4-4 Upset)
(#16) Michigan Wolverines @ (#7) Penn State Nittany Lions
Pat Freiermuth, Penn State
Now over halfway into the 2019 season, this Michigan-Penn State duel will be essentially an elimination game for Big Ten East Title contention. To be fair, Penn State is already in a better spot, sitting undefeated overall and flawless in league play up to this point. A team that has long been run by explosive offenses, the Nittany Lions' success this season has actually been on the defensive end, where they are holding opponents to just 8.2 points per game. They're especially strong and physical in the front seven, headlined by defensive linemen Shaka Toney and Yetur Gross-Matos, as well as linebacker Micah Parsons. That athletic, quick defensive front will pose an extremely difficult challenge for a Michigan offense already struggling to find its rhythm. With the exception of a give-me game against Rutgers, the Wolverines have eclipsed 40 points just once. Is this the game where Shea Patterson is finally going to get it going? He is going to need a lot of help from an inconsistent offensive line, as well as his receivers. The weakness for PSU defensively is their secondary, which is solid, but far from elite. If Tarik Black or Nico Collins are able to find some seams, Michigan could finally start making big plays. However, just as confusing for this UM offense has been the overall lack of a run attack. A hallmark of Jim Harbaugh teams for years, the Wolverines leading rusher is true freshman Zach Charbonnet, who has just 376 yards. It may be time for Harbaugh and OC Josh Gattis to start getting creative. Maybe some trick plays or new formations will finally open up this offense once and for all. Defensively, Michigan has been up-and-down for much of the year but showed how dominant they could be in a victory over Iowa a couple weekends ago. Don Brown defenses always know how to get after the quarterback, and this unit is no exception. Brown should blitz especially heavy in this matchup, considering the fact the Penn State O-Line struggled with Iowa last Saturday. In the pocket, Sean Clifford has been solid, but is still a young QB facing perhaps the toughest defense he's seen in his career. He will have the backing of the Penn State crowd behind him, as well as help from do-it-all K.J. Hamler, but Clifford is still going to have to make big throws. At running back, Noah Cain is starting to emerge from this committee as the clear-cut feature back. The Nittany Lions have leaned on him whenever they need their offense to get going, and he has proven he can carry the load. The Wolverines' rush defense could use some work, so I wouldn't be surprised to see this being the coming-out party for Cain. Overall, this all the makings of a low-scoring affair. Both defenses are going to bring the heat, and both offenses just haven't looked consistent this fall. Even so, the smart money has to be on Penn State. Not only are they playing in a raucous home environment, they seem to be entering with significantly more momentum.
The Pick: Penn State, 23 Michigan, 14

(#12) Oregon Ducks @ (#25) Washington Huskies
As the only undefeated team left in Pac-12 action, Oregon sits as the conference's truly last hope to put a team in the College Football Playoff in 2019. Yet, their toughest division test stands in the way, as Washington hopes to get their season back on track in Seattle. Oregon is another team long-known for their offense that has moved to a defense-first mentality so far in '19. New defensive coordinator Andy Avalos has been terrific, dialing up perfectly timed blitzes and running complicated schemes that befuddle opposing offenses. He is going to force Washington to beat them through the air, which puts UW's hopes mainly on QB Jacob Eason's shoulders. Eason has had his moments, but has still been incredibly streaky, and hasn't played well against tough defenses. Aaron Fuller, Hunter Bryant and big-play freshman Puka Nacua will offer plenty of support, but the O-Line has to be able to deal with a ferocious Duck pass rush if Eason is able to come out of this one alive. On the other side of the ball, the Husky defense has fared well despite massive losses over the off-season. Defensive backs Myles Bryant and Cameron Williams have proven they can turn over opposing quarterbacks, and they may need to do just that in order to swing momentum in their favor. However, Justin Herbert has looked like a seasoned pro, tossing 17 TD's to just one INT at this point in the year. He leads an Oregon offense that can hit you in a variety of ways. C.J. Verdell and Travis Dye have proven to be a pretty potent 1-2 punch at running back, while Johnny Johnson and Jaylon Redd can open things up on the outside. Unfortunately, Oregon will not have the luxury of utilizing one of the nation's top tight ends, as Jacob Breeland, the favorite for the John Mackey Award, was recently ruled out for the season. Breeland played a crucial role as Herbert's security blanket in this offense, and it will be interesting to see what type of effect his loss has on this Duck offense. I will say, not only does Washington get this huge Pac-12 North duel at home, but they also seem to have the advantage on the sidelines. Mario Cristobal has done a really job leading this Oregon program back into the national picture, but he simply has not shown he can win big games just that. This is a golden opportunity to prove that storyline wrong.
The Pick: Oregon, 34 Washington, 21

(#17) Arizona State Sun Devils @ (#13) Utah Utes
While Oregon versus Washington will act as a Pac-12 North Championship Game, this matchup between Arizona State and Utah may end up doing much the same in the South Division. Both of these teams have responded well to early-season losses, but only one can improve to a 3-1 conference record. With the exception of their performance in the loss to USC, the Ute offense has played very well this season. Veteran signal-caller Tyler Huntley continues to be one of the most underrated in the entire country, with zero turnovers to this point. Yet, the real strength of the Utah attack hinges on tailback Zack Moss and a powerful rushing attack. Moss is averaging 7.6 yards per carry, and is fresh off a two-touchdown showing in a win over Oregon State. Herm Edwards preaches toughness, and his Arizona State defense has responded, but they just might not have enough to get in the way of this furious ground-and-pound offense. Utah can also hit you with an underrated group of receivers, namely home run threat Bryan Thompson, who is averaging over 28 yards per reception. For the Sun Devils, their offense has been surprisingly efficient, even with a true freshman behind center. That true frosh, Jayden Daniels, is a dual threat who has also done a great job of protecting the football. Daniels has also benefitted from the play of wide out Brandon Aiyuk, who has come out of nowhere to rank second in receiving yardage in the Pac-12. Add in under appreciated running back running back Eno Benjamin and this is an offense with some serious weapons. Don't expect that to intimidate the Utes, however. This is a defense that year-in, year-out gets results, and their 13.2 points allowed per game is ninth nationally. They are incredibly strong against the run, ranking second in the country in rushing yards allowed per game (52.8), only behind Wisconsin. This is a defensive front that fills gaps extremely well and has proven they can tackle in space. If the ASU running game ends up struggling early on, even more pressure is going to be on Daniels to make things happen, which has to play right into Utah's hands. I still think the Sun Devils own defense gives them a fighting chance no matter what happens, but going into Salt Lake City is a lot more difficult than most realize. Doing it with a true freshman leading the way is even harder.
The Pick: Utah, 28 Arizona State, 24

Other Picks
West Virginia @ (#5) Oklahoma: Oklahoma, 45 West Virginia, 27
(#9) Florida @ South Carolina: Florida, 31 South Carolina, 20
Temple @ (#19) SMU: SMU, 28 Temple, 27
(#22) Missouri @ Vanderbilt: Missouri, 41 Vanderbilt, 17
Upset: Oklahoma State, 35 Baylor, 33

Monday, October 14, 2019

2019 College Football Midseason Awards

Chuba Hubbard, Oklahoma State
Even though it feels like the 2019 college football season started just yesterday, we are now over seven weeks into the campaign, roughly the halfway point of the regular season. Of course, plenty is going to change between now and early January, when a National Champion is crowned. However, I still felt like it worthwhile to break down my picks for a few of the sport's premier awards (along with some unofficial ones). Here are the winners, along with a few finalists for each award.

National Champion: LSU Tigers
LSU's offensive revolution has been one of the highlights of the 2019 college football season. Long stuck in the stone age on offense, this particular group is shredding defenses to the tune of 52.5 points per game. The offense has a veteran quarterback who seems to be getting more confident every passing week, lethal speed on the perimeter, and a serviceable offensive line. Now, it is important to note the Tigers do still have to go on the road to Tuscaloosca in early November, where they haven't won since 2011. The good news there is that this Alabama defense is extremely beat up, and LSU has a strong enough resume to still gain entry into the Playoff with one loss.
Finalists: Ohio State Buckeyes, Alabama Crimson Tide, Clemson Tigers (projected Playoff field)

Coach of the Year: Matt Rhule, Baylor
Back in 2017, Matt Rhule coached a 1-11 Baylor team in the midst of one of the worst scandals in modern collegiate football. Just two years later, the Bears sit 6-0 and look like a serious threat to topple Oklahoma and win the Big 12. It has been a remarkable turnaround for the program, and Rhule's ability to build a culture and develop talent is the reason for it. The schedule is going to pick up, but this Bears team still looks like they are a double-digit win team. It wouldn't be surprising to see a few NFL teams come calling for Rhule after this season.
Finalists: Ed Orgeron (LSU), James Franklin (Penn State), Mack Brown (UNC), P.J. Fleck (Minnesota)

Biletnikoff Award: CeeDee Lamb, Oklahoma
This is going to be a hotly contested year for the Biletnikoff Award, with a host of receivers challenging for the honor. After a 171-yard, 3 touchdown performance in a rivalry win over Texas, CeeDee Lamb now appears to be the slight favorite. The veteran has formed quick chemistry with new quarterback Jalen Hurts, and has flashed unbelievable hands and game-changing speed. I expect his numbers to only get better, even as the Sooners face a stretch of sneaky tough defenses (West Virginia, Kansas State, Iowa State).
Finalists: DeVonta Smith (Alabama), Tylan Wallace (Oklahoma State), Omar Bayless (Arkansas State)

Doak Walker Award: Chuba Hubbard, Oklahoma State
It was a tough decision between Hubbard and Jonathan Taylor for the honor of nation's best running back. I decided to go with Hubbard, who has done more with less help, as he doesn't have the luxury of running behind one of the country's best offensive lines. The Oklahoma State Cowboy leads college football with 1,094 yards, while coming up slightly behind Taylor in terms of total touchdowns. If he continues on his current pace, he'll finish second on OSU's single-season rushing list, behind only Barry Sanders and his 1988 campaign.
Finalists: Jonathan Taylor (Wisconsin), J.K. Dobbins (Ohio State)

Davey O'Brien Award: Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama
After finishing second in Heisman voting a year ago, Tua Tagovailoa has picked right back up where he started. He is completing 74% of his passes for 2,011 yards and 27 touchdowns, along with just one interception. While he has been helped by one of the greatest receiver corps in college football history, Tua has still played at an impressive rate and shouldn't slow down anytime soon. He gets the slight nod over a lot of qualified candidates, such as former teammate Jalen Hurts and SEC West foe Joe Burrow.
Finalists: Jalen Hurts (Oklahoma), Joe Burrow (LSU), Justin Fields (Ohio State)

Chuck Bednarik/Bronco Nagurski Award: Chase Young, Ohio State
An absolute freak of nature who stands six feet, five inches tall and weighs in at 265 pounds, Chase Young has been the most dominant defender in college football so far this fall. Despite facing constant double teams, Young has totaled 8.5 sacks on the season, second nationally. He has also been a help in run support, tallying 21 tackles and forcing one fumble. A serious candidate to be the No. 1 overall selection in the 2020 NFL Draft, the Ohio State defender should load up on hardware before he declares.
Finalists: Evan Weaver (California), Oluwole Betiku (Illinois), Douglas Coleman III (Texas Tech)

Dick Butkus Award: Evan Weaver, California
The fuel behind Cal's surprising start to the year, Evan Weaver leads all defenders in FBS football with 83 tackles. He makes plays at a startling pace, with 22 tackles in a win over Ole Miss and 18 in an upset of Washington. The Golden Bears are going to need their superstar 'backer to keep it up, as they continue play without the help of starting QB Chase Garbers, who is out for a significant period of time.
Finalists: Jordyn Brooks (Texas Tech), Javahn Ferguson (New Mexico State), Curtis Weaver (Boise State)

Jim Thorpe Award: Grant Delpit, LSU
My preseason pick for the award given to the nation's best defensive back, I will stick with Grant Delpit as the eventual winner. While his numbers of 27 tackles, three pass deflections and one INT don't necessarily jump out at you, it is impossible to understate Delpit's importance to the Tiger defense. He is yet another award recipient who is sure to go highly in next spring's NFL Draft.
Finalists: Patrick Surtain (Alabama), Jeffrey Okudah (Ohio State), Douglas Coleman III (Texas Tech)

Breakout Player of the Year: Joe Burrow, LSU
Even the most optimistic LSU fan probably would never have imagined what Joe Burrow has done in 2019, already eclipsing 2,000 yards and notching 27 total touchdowns. It has been a complete transformation for the former Ohio State transfer, as he has played with complete confidence and poise, despite staring down a number of difficult opposing defenses. Seeing a transfer find a new home and succeed is one of the best parts of modern college football.
Finalists: Justin Fields (Ohio State), Oluwole Betiku (Illinois), Anthony Gordon (Washington State), Chuba Hubbard (Oklahoma State), Sage Surratt (Wake Forest)

Freshman of the Year: Derek Stingley Jr., LSU
Another LSU Tiger taking home hardware? With how impressive he has been over the first seven weeks of the year, it is hard to go anywhere else but Stingley here. The former five-star prospect has consistently taken on opponent's best receivers and shut them down. He already has three interceptions and nine pass deflections on the year, and seems to only be getting more comfortable with his role. He certainly appears to be the latest in a long line of star defensive backs in Baton Rouge.
Finalists: Dillon Gabriel (UCF), Kenneth Gainwell (Memphis), Sam Howell (UNC), Jayden Daniels (Arizona State)

Heisman: Joe Burrow, LSU
Nobody has really separated themselves from the pack in this year's Heisman race, but Joe Burrow's performance in a win Saturday over Florida helps him take the slight edge. Burrow not only has the stats to back it up, he has been the leader of 2019's most impressive team, a team with landmark victories over Texas and Florida. The LSU-Alabama meeting might not only decide the SEC race, it may also end up being the deciding factor in the Heisman competition between Burrow and fellow favorite, Tua Tagovailoa.
Finalists: Jalen Hurts (Oklahoma), Tua Tagovailoa (Alabama), Justin Fields (Ohio State), Jonathan Taylor (Wisconsin)

Friday, October 11, 2019

College Football Picks 2019: Week Seven

Current Picks Record: 32-16 (3-4 Upset)
Jalen Hurts, Oklahoma
(#7) Florida Gators @ (#5) LSU Tigers
One week after a huge victory over Auburn at home, Florida must now go on the road and square off with a flaming hot LSU squad. It will be the toughest test of the 2019 season to this point for the Gators, particularly for their offense. While backup quarterback Kyle Trask has been impressive filling in as starter, he has not faced a defense with the speed and playmaking LSU has, particularly on the back-end. Trask will have to face down a secondary that includes Grant Delpit, Kristian Fulton and true freshman Derek Stingley, who has lived up to all the hype surrounding him when he came to Baton Rouge. The Gators have gotten quality production from their wide outs, particularly Van Jefferson and Freddie Swain, who has terrific against Auburn. They'll have to step up and open things up, but expect Dan Mullen to lean on the short-passing attack and the ground game early on. Lamical Perine has been very good, but UF is still going to have to work for every yard. The good news is that the Florida defense is playing at an insane rate right now and completely flummoxed Bo Nix last Saturday. Sure, Joe Burrow and this LSU offense is also rolling at the moment, currently leading FBS football with 54.6 points per game. Burrow has dissected opposing defenses with ease, and it helps that he has some real star power on the outside, including Ja'Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson and Terrace Marshall Jr. Watching this pass offense go up against the Florida secondary should be worth watching itself. C.J. Henderson and Marco Wilson are both fully healthy at cornerback, while junior Shawn Davis already has three interceptions on the season. This is a matchup that has been a physical, low-scoring affair in the past, but LSU's offensive revolution should really add some intrigue. It will be fascinating to watch how Mullen and UF defensive coordinator Todd Grantham try to contain this aerial offense. The Tigers will have to answer some questions themselves, chief among them: can the offensive line contain a potent Gator pass rush? Jonathan Greenard, Jabari Zuniga and Jeremiah Moon provide relentless pressure, and the LSU offensive front hasn't faced a challenge quite like it in 2019. With that being said, I find it difficult to pick Florida to go on the road and beat this Tiger team. It is their second Top 10 battle in as many weeks, and LSU just seems overpowering at this juncture. I expect them to add to their Playoff resume with a quality victory here.
The Pick: LSU, 35 Florida, 26

(#6) Oklahoma Sooners vs. (#11) Texas Longhorns
The Oklahoma-Texas rivalry has long defined the Big 12, and it once again appears to be the most important game of the conference once again in 2019. Oklahoma enters the matchup undefeated, although they haven't beat anyone of note at this point. Jalen Hurts has been nothing short of terrific, tallying nearly 2,000 yards of total offense and 21 touchdowns. It's hard to imagine him slowing down in this one; while the Texas secondary has loads of talent, it is still incredibly youthful and could have a tough time slowing down this Lincoln Riley offense. Not only will the Sooners feature Hurts, but they have loads of weapons surrounding the Alabama transfer. A three-headed monster at running back (Trey Sermon, Kennedy Brooks, Rhamondre Stevenson) should be able to run all over a beat-up Texas defensive front. On the outside, CeeDee Lamb, Charleston Rambo and true freshman Jadon Hasselwood will aid a unit averaging over 53 points per game. Longhorn DC Todd Orlando is going to have to do something unique to slow down this group, especially with how much Longhorns will be on the sideline for this game. The good news is that Texas should be able to keep up offensively, behind the arm of Sam Ehlinger. Ehlinger played superb in this Red River rivalry a year ago, and has already proven he can outplay outstanding defenses, throwing for over 400 yards against LSU earlier on in the year. Unfortunately, he doesn't have the weapons around him that Hurts has, with a beat-up running back situation and a good, but not great, receiver corps. Keontay Ingram could find some gaping holes against an up-and-down Oklahoma defense, and Devin Duvarney will be a factor on the outside. However, this Sooners' defense has looked much improved throughout the 2019 campaign. Granted, they haven't faced elite offenses, but it is still reassuring that they're allowing just 19 points per game on the year. They will have to find a way to slow down the dual threat abilities of Ehlinger, as he killed them at times in last year's duel. Either way, I fully expect this game to still be high-scoring and back-and-forth. Both of these offenses know how to move the ball, and this game features two of the better quarterbacks in collegiate football. This rivalry has also been very competitive, even during UT's recent downturn this past decade. I think this will be a thriller, but the Sooners have to be the smart money. They have a better offense and better health overall, which should be the deciding factor.
The Pick: Oklahoma, 44 Texas, 38

(#10) Penn State Nittany Lions @ (#17) Iowa Hawkeyes
Going into Kinnick Stadium at night is always going to signal an upset watch, and Penn State could certainly be in trouble this upcoming Saturday night. That isn't to say that the Nittany Lions aren't a very strong team, sitting at 5-0 with two dominant victories in their first two Big Ten games. After some early struggles, QB Sean Clifford has played very good football, showing an excellent command of the PSU offense. He is also helped by an offense that has a plethora of weapons, both at running back and at receiver. Journey Brown, Devyn Ford and Noah Cain can all open things up on the ground, and the depth at the position allows them to rotate often and stay fresh. They won't get anything easy against a physical and ferocious Iowa defensive front, but I still expect Penn State to find success on the ground. What will really help the ground attack is K.J. Hamler, who can give defenses real headaches with his game-breaking speed. He's the type of player that could break a game wide open, especially if things stay close deep into the fourth quarter, which I firmly expect them to. While the offense is humming, it seems that the even bigger strength so far for the Nittany Lions has been an aggressive, talented defense. The PSU pass rush has been especially productive, thanks to Yetur Gross-Matos (five sacks), Shaka Toney (five sacks) and Ellis Brooks (three). It could have a real field day in this game, going up against a Hawkeye offensive line that surrendered eight sacks this past weekend to Michigan. That is the biggest mismatch of the game, but the rest of the Penn State defense is going to have to show up. While Iowa QB Nate Stanley isn't a superstar, he has played a lot of Big Ten football, and I think he'll find a way to get this offense going. The Hawkeyes also feature a strong rushing attack, that includes Mekhi Sargent and Toren Young. While PSU can get after the opposing quarterback, I'm not sure if they can completely contain the run. Talent-wise, I do believe that Penn State has an advantage in that department. Yet, you have to factor in the Kinnick factor whenever assessing an Iowa night game. The Hawkeyes came within a hair of beating PSU in 2017, which was a better Nittany Lion team (hello, Saquon Barkley!). I think this could end up being a low-scoring, sloppy duel between long-time Big Ten foes. I think Iowa does just enough on offense to pull off another upset in front of their home crowd.
The Pick: Iowa, 24 Penn State, 21

Other Picks
(#1) Alabama @ (24) Texas A&M: Alabama, 42 Texas A&M, 21
USC @ (#9) Notre Dame: Notre Dame, 31 USC, 27
Hawai'i @ (#14) Boise State: Boise State, 37 Hawai'i, 31
Michigan State @ (#8) Wisconsin: Wisconsin, 23 Michigan State, 14
Upset: Temple, 28 Memphis, 27

Wednesday, October 9, 2019

Post-Week Six College Football Playoff Power Rankings

Justin Fields, Ohio State
We are now over a month in the 2019 college football season and while plenty still needs to be figured out, the CFB Playoff picture seems to be becoming more clear. Things could continue to shift with a stacked slate of games, but through the first six weeks, here is how the Top 8 stands:

The Four
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
Even though the Tide don't own a real signature win at this juncture in the season, this still looks like a convincing national favorite. They have perhaps the scariest offense in the country, a budding defense, and the best coach in the sport. The defense will have to answer some questions after recent struggles, but there is still time to correct. A win over Texas A&M would serve as a nice resume boost before a breezy remaining October stretch.

2 Ohio State Buckeyes
A resounding victory over Michigan State this Saturday was the latest in a long stretch of impressive Buckeye victories. The offense continues to hum along behind Justin Fields and J.K. Dobbins, while the defense has taken major strides. While Ohio State looks like the favorite in the Big Ten, they have three major remaining tests in Penn State, Wisconsin and Michigan. There is also the history of losing to inferior opponents over the last few years, with trap games against Northwestern and Maryland.

3 Georgia Bulldogs
Georgia owns one of the strongest wins in college football right now, beating Notre Dame at home. A blowout victory of Tennessee over the weekend further helped out the Bulldogs, and UGA possesses a favorable remaining schedule. Beyond a road trek to Auburn, games against Florida and Texas A&M seem manageable. With that being said, life as an SEC favorite is no breeze, and the Georgia defense is still incredibly youthful.

4. Clemson Tigers
A squeaky close win over North Carolina in Week 5 might have kept Clemson perfect, but it exposed some serious flaws the reigning National Champs. The offense is loaded with talent, but is still trying to find their rhythm. Trevor Lawrence especially has struggled at times, but we will give this team some time before panicking. They are still a Playoff favorite, and their tough remaining foe is probably Wake Forest in mid-November.

First Four Out
5 LSU Tigers
The Tigers own a very impressive victory themselves, beating a very strong Texas team on the road. The new look offense has been a smashing success, with Joe Burrow asserting himself as a legitimate Heisman contender. It will be interesting to see if that productivity is able to continue through remaining tests against Florida, Auburn and Alabama. This still looks like a good enough team to be a Playoff contender, but handling that schedule is a tall order. LSU will remain right on the cusp until they work through it.

6 Florida Gators
Dan Mullen's second team in Gainesville looks incredibly resilient, overcoming the loss of starting QB Feleipe Franks and continuing to win. They sit at 6-0 and have two of their toughest opponents over the next three games, in LSU and Georgia. The offense is going to have to be creative moving the ball against some of these elite SEC defenses, particularly with Kyle Trask taking a beating this past weekend. Yet, the Gator defense is ferocious, and keeps them in the thick of things in the Playoff chase.

7 Oklahoma Sooners
The Sooners are another team who is rolling right now, with five wins where they all crossed the 40-point threshold. Jalen Hurts has been a key addition for the offense, while wide out CeeDee Lamb and running back Trey Sermon add plenty of firepower around him. The defense has also seemed to make some strides, although they haven't faced super quality competition. We'll learn about just how truly good this OU team is this weekend when they square off against arch-rival Texas. A strong showing there and they could start to climb quickly.

8 Wisconsin Badgers
The best defense in the nation currently resides in Madison, where the Badgers are holding opponents to just 5.8 PPG and 179 yards per game. They also own a quality victory, with a fantastic showing against Michigan earlier in the year. They're set up pretty nicely as a Playoff threat, with a trip to Columbus possibly deciding the season. One thing is for certain: Wisconsin surely looks like the team to beat in the Big Ten West until further notice.

Just Missed the Cut
Oregon Ducks
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Auburn Tigers
Texas Longhorns
Penn State Nittany Lions
Michigan Wolverines
Boise State Broncos
Iowa Hawkeyes

Thursday, October 3, 2019

College Football Picks 2019: Week Six

Current Picks Record: 26-14 (2-4 Upset)
(#7) Auburn Tigers @ (#10) Florida Gators
Bo Nix, Auburn
The first real SEC battle of the 2019 season kicks off this Saturday between the flaming hot Auburn Tigers and Florida, who has managed to survive without starting quarterback Feleipe Franks. Auburn has been particularly surprising, sitting at 5-0 overall despite a tough non-conference opener with Oregon and a road trip to Texas A&M. The Tigers have done most of it with a suffocating defense, headlined by a loaded front seven. Yet, this past weekend, the offense showed just how potent it can be, dropping 56 on a solid Mississippi State defense. True freshman signal-caller Bo Nix seems to only be getting better, although turnovers still pose a problem. He faces a talented Gator defense, with star power at every level. Even going into a hostile environment like the Swamp, I don't see Nix being overwhelmed with the atmosphere. He looked calm and poised a few weekends ago in College Station, and even before that in the opener. The Tigers feature a number of other explosive weapons around Nix, namely steady tailback "Boobie" Whitlow and speed demon Anthony Schwartz. Schwartz, who was banged up to begin the year, has to strike an especially deep fear in this Florida defense. He has had rushing touchdowns in consecutive weeks, using his track speed to fly around on jet sweeps. Gus Malzahn's creativity and unique offense really fits the personnel on this roster, but he will need his offensive line to play well. Florida has proven they can pound offenses with a relentless pass rush, and the Auburn O-Line certainly hasn't been perfect so far in '19. For the Gators, they'll lean not only on that physical defense, but a methodical, efficient offense. Since taking over as starting QB for the injured Franks, Kyle Trask is completing 77% of his passes and seems to have a real command of this offense. He doesn't necessarily wow you with his physical attributes, but Trask does a good job getting the ball out quickly and making the right decisions. Florida will still need somebody to step up on the outside and really open things up. While the Tiger defensive front is terrific, the secondary still has some lingering question marks that could be exploited. Missing Kadarius Toney has really hurt the Gators in that regard, but Van Jefferson and Trevon Grimes have both proven they can do damage. They won't have to dominate, but giving Trask much needed help is an absolute necessity. Even if UF is able to get production on the outside and find some holes in the Tiger defense, I still wonder if they're able to keep up with Auburn for sixty minutes. This is a scary Tiger team, and a victory on the road here should assert them as a very real Playoff contender. Going into Ben Hill Griffin Stadium is obviously never easy, but I like the Tigers to keep it rolling here.
The Pick: Auburn, 35 Florida, 27

(#14) Iowa Hawkeyes @ (#19) Michigan Wolverines
Outside of a close win against Iowa State in the Cy-Hawk this past month, we still aren't really sure how good Iowa really is, as they sit at 14th nationally. It looks like the typical Hawkeye team, one with a rock-solid quarterback, a punishing offensive line, and a stout defense. Nate Stanley has been exactly what Kirk Ferentz looks for at QB (8 TD, 0 INT), but the real strength of the Iowa offense so far on the year has been a three-pronged backfield attack. Mekhi Sargent, Toren Young and Tyler Goodson all have eclipsed 200 yards on the campaign, with Young serving as the big-play option, averaging 7.6 yards per attempt. On the perimeter, Iowa might miss Noah Fant and T.J. Hockenson at tight end, but they've still done enough to have confidence they can move the ball in a variety of ways. With that being said, the Hawkeyes now stare down a Michigan defense that has loads of talent, and seems to be playing hungry. This Wolverines' defense has been much maligned for its play in a win over Army and a bad loss to Wisconsin, and for good reason. They haven't stopped the run as well as in year's past, and the pass rush really hasn't looked like Don Brown defenses normally look like. However, this is the type of offense Michigan generally plays well against, and they now have momentum after shutting out Rutgers last Saturday. They'll look to force Stanley to make a few rare mistakes, and commit his first turnover of the new year. For all the questions Michigan has on defense, the offense has been even more maligned. New offensive coordinator Josh Gattis promised a more open, up-tempo offense that better utilizes UM's speed on the outside. Yet, this group hasn't really delivered on that promise, and veteran QB Shea Patterson has really struggled. The good news is that Patterson appears to finally be 100 percent, and is coming off a strong showing a week ago. Granted, this Iowa defense is a little bit more of a challenge than the Rutgers group, but Patterson does have a couple of rising stars at receiver in Ronnie Bell and Nico Collins. The hope is that the ground attack can also rejuvenate this week, whether its Christian Turner or Zach Charbonnet (probable) leading the charge. Michigan is also going to need the O-Line to handle a vaunted Iowa pass rush, but playing in front of the home crowd should be able to give the whole offense a boost. A preseason Playoff pick of mine, Michigan has definitely disappointed through the first month of the season. Yet, I still think this is a team that should be able to figure things out going forward, and I think they find a way to come out on top here. Home field is obviously a major advantage, and I envision the defense having a redemptive afternoon.
The Pick: Michigan, 28 Iowa, 20

(#25) Michigan State Spartans @ (#4) Ohio State Buckeyes
Following their 41-point dismantling of Nebraska last weekend, it has become clear that Ohio State is the team to beat in the Big Ten. They're hopeful to continue their momentum at home this Saturday against a tough Michigan State team. After managing just one touchdown in a loss to Arizona State in early September, the MSU offense has looked significantly better, with 71 points over their next two. Quarterback Brian Lewerke has been rock-solid, coming off a 300-yard showing in the victory over Indiana. He is aided by a number of under-the-radar playmakers, namely wide out Darrell Stewart and talented youngster Elijah Collins. Will it be enough to score against the Buckeyes? The Spartan offensive line is going to have to find a way to slow down Chase Young, Jeffrey Okudah and the rest of a talented Ohio State defense. Young in particular has to have the Michigan State offense worried, as the possible top pick in next spring's NFL Draft already has eight sacks on the season despite facing constant double teams. The good news is that the Spartans feature a dominant defense themselves, including one of the nation's premier rush defenses. Even though they allowed 31 this past week, they still are allowing just 15.0 points per game, which sits 14th nationally. They have to find a way to slow down a Buckeye offense that can hurt you in a variety of ways. Quarterback Justin Fields has been absolutely terrific, already notching 23 total touchdowns on the year with zero interceptions. The former Georgia transfer has already proven himself as one of the country's most effective dual threats, and he really makes the rest of this offense go. Running back J.K. Dobbins has had a huge season with defenses focusing on Fields, and he should be ready to do damage, even against a physical Spartan defensive front. Dobbins has scored in every single game of the season, with the only exception being against Nebraska, when he ran for 177. On the perimeter, a trio of receivers will test an experienced MSU secondary. Senior K.J. Hill and Chris Olave have to be top priorities for the Spartans, as they've already combined for eight touchdowns on the season. Scoring points against this Michigan State group should still pose a stiff challenge, but with the way this offense is rolling under new head coach Ryan Day, the Buckeyes shouldn't have too much difficulties. Unless the Spartans are able to figure things out against a speedy, talented defense themselves, OSU keeps on humming.
The Pick: Ohio State, 34 Michigan State, 14

Other Picks
California @ (#13) Oregon: Oregon, 27 California, 16
(#3) Georgia @ Tennessee: Georgia, 41 Tennessee, 20
(#15) Washington @ Stanford: Washington, 30 Stanford, 20
Purdue @ (#12) Penn State: Penn State, 37 Purdue, 21
Upset: Texas Tech, 45 Oklahoma State, 42