Thursday, November 30, 2023

College Football Picks 2023: Week Fourteen (Championship Week)

Michael Penix, Washington 

Current Picks Record: 77-31

Upsets: 7-5

Superdogs: 7-5

Locks: 9-3


Pac-12 Championship Game: (#5) Oregon Ducks @ (#3) Washington Huskies

Line: Oregon -9.5

O/U: 65.5

For so long, the Pac-12 was the butt of the joke when it came to the Power Five conferences. It's TV network was a mess, they couldn't get a team in the College Football Playoff, and it became synonymous with late-night chaos. As we prepare for the final Pac-12 Championship Game ever, at least in its current state, things have changed in a big way. Oregon and Washington are playing in what is essentially a Playoff quarterfinal game, with a Heisman Trophy potentially on the line. How can you not be romantic about college football?

If you love points, this is the game for you, as they will be coming early and often on Friday night. Oregon boasts their own Heisman frontrunner, quarterback Bo Nix, who engineers a balanced, efficient group that can attack defenses in a variety of ways. Nix isn't afraid to take shots deep, but his ability to extend plays with his legs requires defenses to often use a spy to slow him down. That leaves more space for the other skill position players to factor in, including wide outs Troy Franklin and Tez Johnson. Both have been dominant all season long, and should have a field day against a Washington secondary that has not only struggled most of the year, but had difficulties containing this offense in their previous matchup. If that wasn't enough, Oregon is able to hit you with the two-headed monster of Bucky Irving and Jordan James out of the backfield, running behind an experienced, ferocious offensive line. Irving and James are excellent complements to each other - Irving's shiftiness and big play ability is a joy to watch, while James brings the thunder. The Huskies are a better rush defense than pass, but finding a way to contain those two, along with Nix, is going to be a tough challenge.

Washington will counter with their own Heisman frontrunner, Michael Penix, who out-dueled Bo Nix in this game earlier in the fall. Penix has slowed down slightly in the season's second half, but still boasts a rocket arm and is helped out by an impressive receiver corps. Biletnikoff finalist Rome Odunze is the headliner, but Jalen McMillan, Ja'Lynn Polk, and Germie Bernard can all get in on the action. Washington will look to take plenty of shots with the nation's second best passing offense, especially as they go up against a Duck secondary that has been susceptible through the air, but Dillon Johnson's contributions on the ground should not be overlooked. The former Mississippi State transfer gives this offense some semblance of balance, forcing defenses to give this ground game a second thought, which should not be overlooked. He hit the century mark against Oregon earlier in the year and should give this Duck defense reason to still load the box, especially as they battle against a quality Washington offensive line.

Washington and Oregon's battle earlier in the fall was one of the best games of the season so far, and I think the encore has a chance to be even better. The stakes are higher, the game's in Las Vegas, and both teams are playing tremendous football. I picked the Ducks earlier on and was proven incorrect, but I'm going back and rolling with them again to take home the Pac-12 crown. I'd argue they outplayed Washington in the first matchup and I believe top-to-bottom this is one of the best teams in college football - they'll get the job done Friday night and make their second Playoff berth in school history.

The Pick: Oregon, 38 Washington, 30


SEC Championship Game: (#1) Georgia Bulldogs @ (#8) Alabama Crimson Tide

Line: Georgia -5.5

O/U: 49.5

Georgia's quest for a three-point remains in focus, but standing in their way is a familiar foe: the Alabama Crimson Tide. After a shaky start to the season, Nick Saban has his team playing greta football, and looking to sneak into the College Football Playoff with an upset win in Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

Georgia's offensive makeover has been one of the most intriguing storylines of the 2023 season. An offense that was known for it's ground-and-pound nature has leaned heavily on a vertical passing attack, with Carson Beck putting together an impressive campaign as first-year starter. The junior has nearly 3,500 yards of passing and leads the nation's eighth-best pass offense, a remarkable feat when you consider tight end Brock Bowers has missed a big chunk of the regular season. Bowers appears to be working his way back to 100 percent at the right time, while others in the Bulldog passing game have stepped up, most notably Ladd McConkey, although he's a bit beaten up himself heading into the home stretch. This trio will look to be aggressive against an Alabama secondary that features a star corner, Kool-Aid McKinstry, and rising star safety in Caleb Downs, but has still been frightfully inconsistent. The secondary does seem to have found its footing after a rough start, much like the rest of this roster, but it's fair to have concerns about how they'll look against a dynamic passing attack. And then, the Bulldogs can still hit you underneath with a power run game, led by Daijun Edwards and Kendall Milton. Yet, the matchup I'm most curious about has to be the battle in the trenches, featuring a whole list of future NFL contributors. The Georgia O-Line doesn't quite have as much talent as we've seen in year's past, but remains a fearsome group - how will they fare against the combo of Dallas Turner and Chris Braswell off the edge?

Life after Bryce Young has been turbulent at times for the Alabama offense, but they've certainly found their stride at this point in the year. Quarterback Jalen Milroe has seemingly gotten better each and every week, and enters the Championship Game playing some of his best football yet. He's always a threat to run, and his huge arm gives this Tide offense real bite, but they still have to live with some of the questionable decisions that come along with it. It hasn't been as much of a problem as of late, but facing a Georgia secondary loaded with talent? You do wonder if it's a major turnover that ends up swinging the tide - no pun intended - in the favor of the Georgia Bulldogs. The rest of the Alabama supporting cast isn't quite as dynamic as what we've come to know under Saban, but there are enough quality pieces to get the job done. Roydell Williams and Jase McClellan provide a nice punch at running back, while the receiver corps adds enough explosiveness to complement Milroe and company. But much like Georgia's offense, it's the blockers I'm watching here. The Tide have shown tremendous growth up front, but things remain a work in progress, and they face a relentless Bulldog defensive front.

Georgia has found a way to outclass Alabama in their last two meetings, and they're the better team this fall. But, you can never be too sure with Saban and the Crimson Tide - they're going to test Kirby Smart for the entire four quarters, and it wouldn't shock me if they found a way to squeak this one out. I'm still rolling with the Bulldogs, but this one feels like it could be in coin flip territory.

The Pick: Georgia, 31 Alabama, 27


Big Ten Championship Game: (#2) Michigan Wolverines @ (#16) Iowa Hawkeyes

Line: Michigan -22

O/U: 34.5

With USC, UCLA, Oregon, and Washington all set to join the Big Ten next fall, it's officially the final year of the East-West Championship Game format. And, what a way to go out - with Michigan battling Iowa in a game where they very well could be more defensive points scored than offensive. The Wolverines are hoping for their third straight Big Ten Title and another trip to the CFB Playoff, while Kirk Ferentz and the Hawkeyes are just fine playing spoilers on Saturday night.

Michigan's offense doesn't jump out at you statistically, but this has been a remarkably consistent and efficient group throughout the entire fall. Quarterback J.J. McCarthy provides a stabilizing force under center, an efficient signal-caller who can create plays with his legs as necessary. He's joined by the combination of Donovan Edwards and Blake Corum out of the backfield, the nation's premier backfield duo, as well as a solid, reliable receiver corps. Edwards and Corum have been the focal point of the Wolverine offense all season, but it will be interesting to see if they choose to attack down the field more consistently in this one. I thought that may be the case against Ohio State, but that didn't turn out to be the case - against Iowa, things may be different. The Hawkeyes feature an elite defensive front, one that has its usual collection of future NFL players. They are still strong on the back-end, but the season-ending injury to Cooper DeJean robs them of their chief playmaker. 

Years from now, we are going to look back at this Iowa offense and marvel that this football team ended up winning ten regular season football games. This unit has set new records for just how inept it has been and yet, the Hawkeyes have still found a way to come out on top most Saturdays. Will that be the case in this one? They are going to need something, anything, from quarterback Deacon Hill, who replaced an injured Cade McNamara mid-season. Hill's numbers are hideous - a 48% completion rate and 5-6 TD-INT ratio - but the Hawkeyes don't exactly ask for much from their quarterback. As long as he's able to take care of the ball and make the occasional play downfield, Iowa still has a chance to pull off the upset. The ground game will be the main source of offense once again, but even here, there's a lack of explosiveness. Leshun Williams finished as their leading rusher, with 779 yards, but with defenses stacking the box at every opportunity, he struggled to create big plays. That's just a reality of the Iowa offense this season - they are going to have to find a way to manufacture yards. Unfortunately, that's not exactly an easy task against a Michigan defense that has been shutdown all year, ranking first in the nation with 10.3 points allowed per game.

Few things would be quite as hilarious as watching this particular Iowa somehow find a way to win a Big Ten Title, but I just don't see it happening. Even if their defense and special teams provides a boost, the offense is so inept that it will be hard to match whatever Michigan does. As long as the Wolverines do just enough, they should ride into the College Football Playoff with a perfect record.

The Pick: Michigan, 17 Iowa, 7


Other Picks

Conference USA Championship: New Mexico State Aggies @ (#24) Liberty Flames -- What a story New Mexico State has been this fall, but the undefeated Flames are just a better football team top-to-bottom.

The Pick: Liberty, 28 New Mexico State, 21

Big 12 Championship: (#18) Oklahoma State Cowboys @ (#7) Texas Longhorns -- Texas still has Playoff hopes that are very much alive, and they could actually be helped out in a big way by an Alabama upset. But first, they much finish business themselves - which seems likely against an inconsistent Cowboy team.

The Pick: Texas, 34 Oklahoma State, 21

MAC Championship: Miami (Ohio) Redhawks @ Toledo Rockets -- Toledo head coach Jason Candle has flirted with several Power Five openings, but has stayed put. Perhaps that should ensure his team is focused for Ford Field this Saturday.

The Pick: Toledo, 27 Miami, 24

Mountain West Championship: Boise State Broncos @ UNLV Rebels -- If you haven't gotten a chance to tune into UNLV this fall, this is your chance. They run a thrilling offense, and are on the cusp of their first 10-win season in program history.

The Pick: UNLV, 37 Boise State, 24

American Athletic Championship: SMU Mustangs @ (#22) Tulane Green Wave -- Before the season-ending injury to quarterback Preston Stone, I was leaning towards picking SMU in this one. But without their star quarterback, the Mustangs come up short against Tulane, who is likely to clinch a New Year's Six Bowl berth.

The Pick: Tulane, 35 SMU, 31

Sun Belt Championship: Appalachian State Mountaineers @ Troy Trojans -- After a 1-2 start, the Troy Trojans have quietly ripped off nine straight victories - their defense should ensure it's ten this Saturday.

The Pick: Troy, 24 Appalachian State, 17

ACC Championship: (#14) Louisville Cardinals @ (#4) Florida State Seminoles -- The Jordan Travis injury has thrown a wrench into Florida State's National Title hopes, but this is the far more talented team. They should find a way to still come out on top against the upstart Cardinals.

The Pick: Florida State, 28 Louisville, 21

Thursday, November 23, 2023

College Football Picks 2023: Week Thirteen

J.J. McCarthy, Michigan

Current Picks Record: 69-30

Upsets: 7-4

Superdogs: 6-5

Locks: 8-3


(#2) Ohio State Buckeyes @ (#3) Michigan Wolverines

Line: Michigan -3

O/U: 46.5

It all comes down to this. Michigan and Ohio State have been on a collision course all season long, and now both teams are set to square off. It looks like the biggest game we've seen of 2023 - two teams with perfect records, a Big Ten East Title on the line, and likely College Football Playoff hopes hanging in the balance. Who will leave Saturday with their undefeated mark still intact?

Kyle McCord was tasked with the unenviable job of taking over for one of the most decorated passers in Ohio State history and naturally, there have been growing pains. But, the junior seems to be playing his best football as of late, albeit against some of the weaker defenses on the Buckeye schedule. It isn't surprising that McCord has needed time to adjust to his new starting job, particularly with the Buckeyes also breaking in a first-year offensive coordinator in Brian Hartline, but this weekend will tell us a lot about the young quarterback. At times, he's seen hesitant and a bit overwhelmed by the big stage - well, it doesn't get much bigger than "The Game" between two Top 5 teams. It would help if the Ohio State ground game could take a bit of pressure off McCord, but that just hasn't consistently been the case this year. TreVeyon Henderson and Miyan Williams have both battled injuries all year long and although they appear to be on the mend, they face a physical Michigan defensive front, a group that has held OSU in check the last two seasons. On the perimeter, the Ohio State offense is also looking for more consistency beyond Marvin Harrison Jr. Harrison Jr. has been as good as any Buckeye fan could have hoped, but the injury bug hitting Emeka Egbuka has negatively impacted this group. Egbuka does appear to be good to go, and tight end Cade Stover has stepped up in a major way as needed, but this isn't the best group of Ohio State pass-catchers we've seen in recent years. They're in for a battle against these Wolverine defensive backs, a chess match that could very well decide this one.

It's been fascinating to watch Ohio State's transition into a defense-first team this fall. Coordinator Jim Knowles has truly done a tremendous job in his two seasons running this defense, and the group is allowing just over nine points per game on the year, one of the best marks in the entire country. But, now comes the ultimate test - a meeting with J.J. McCarthy and the Michigan offense. McCarthy has remained a fixture in the Heisman conversation all season despite rather pedestrian numbers, at least in comparison to many of the other top quarterbacks in the race. Instead, McCarthy has gained national respect for his crisp control running this offense, making smart decisions, and moving the chains. He should be eager to show what he can do on the big stage after a pair of quiet weeks, in which he totaled just 201 passing yards total. Those numbers have mainly been a result of Michigan's elite ground attack, which has removed the need for McCarthy to throw down the field very often. But, this Buckeye defense is going to give them a test, and he's going to need to do more than hand the ball off 40-plus times to the likes of Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards. That also puts pressure on a Wolverine receiver corps that doesn't have a Harrison Jr., but instead has leaned on steady play from the likes of Roman Wilson and Cornelius Johnson. Perhaps ultra-versatile Semaj Morgan could provide the additional spark this Wolverine offense could need to get over the top. 

This may be a matchup of Top 5 teams, but it's likely not going to be a pretty one. The forecast indicates it's going to be a cold, and potentially wet one, and the game will feature two good, but not great, offenses going up against a pair of elite defenses. I think that type of environment favors Michigan, especially when you consider the game will be in Ann Arbor. This has looked like the more complete team top-to-bottom, and even without Jim Harbaugh on the sidelines, I'm picking them to win their third straight in the series.

The Pick: Michigan, 27 Ohio State, 21


(#16) Oregon State Beavers @ (#6) Oregon Ducks

Line: Oregon -14

O/U: 62.5

It's the final installment of the rivalry once known as The Civil War, at least with the two programs in the same conference. But if that wasn't enough to pique your interest, consider that this is a rivalry game with significant implications. Oregon's College Football Playoff hopes are still very much alive, while the Beavers are not only trying to play spoiler, but also still has a chance to reach the ten-win plateau for the second straight season.

D.J. Uiagalelei has given the Beaver offense a passing threat that they didn't have far too often in 2022, as the former Clemson transfer has notched 2,418 yards and 20 touchdowns on the year. Yet, it's still all about the ground game when it comes to the Oregon State offense, with superstar tailback Damien Martinez leading the charge. The sophomore has not only eclipsed the 1,000 yard mark, he's averaging over six yards per carry, a remarkable number when you consider how much usage he gets. He's helped by veteran Deshaun Fenwick, a change-of-pace that gives the Beavers much-needed explosiveness out of the backfield. Those two will be featured heavily, but it does feel like Oregon State may alter their game-plan slightly, considering the opponent. The Ducks retain a clear advantage in the trenches and up front, but we've seen the secondary struggle at times this fall. That doesn't mean Uiagalelei is going to step back and throw 50 times, but don't be surprised if the Beavers are a bit more aggressive than we've seen them in the past, even on the road.

The Oregon State defense poses an interesting challenge for Bo Nix and company as they look ahead to the Pac-12 Championship Game. The Beavers aren't the most talented team in the Pac-12 on this side of the ball, but are well-coached and fundamentally sound. They're also physical at all three levels, and should mix and match packages in an effort to slow down Nix and the Oregon supporting cast. That's easier said than done, however, as Nix has been on fire all season long and has plenty of weapons to help him. Bucky Irving and Jordan James are a two-headed monster out of the backfield, both with varying strengths, while Troy Franklin is a Biletnikoff Award contender, reeling in 68 catches for 1,221 yards on the year. There's also Tez Johnson, Nix's half-brother, a dynamic option on the perimeter that can line up just about anywhere. I don't doubt this group is going to be able to move the ball, but I'm particularly curious about the offensive line. It's been tremendous throughout the fall, but Oregon State is a challenge, and if the Ducks can reach the Playoff, this is unit that decides just how far they go.

This is one of those rivalries where you can truly throw out the records - any team can win at any time. That's particularly true this season as we look at two teams ranked in the Top 16 nationally, both with goals of their own. I've been impressed with Oregon State all season, but it's going to be a tough ask to go into Eugene and come away with a victory. I also wonder about the Jonathan Smith factor, after rumors surfaced this week about potential mutual interest between him and Michigan State. It could be more smoke than fire, but you never know how that's going to impact a game this late in the season.

The Pick: Oregon, 38 Oregon State, 28


(#8) Alabama Crimson Tide @ Auburn Tigers

Line: Alabama -10.5

O/U: 48.5

For all the narratives that the Alabama dynasty was crumbling over the first month of 2023, the Tide have rolled into the final week of the regular season in pretty good position to get back to the College Football Playoff. They have one of the best losses anywhere in the country in Texas, have built a solid resume with Tennessee, LSU, and Ole Miss, and have a chance to add to it by beating Georgia in the SEC Championship Game. But first, they must get past Auburn in the Iron Bowl, a 6-5 team looking to play spoiler in their final game of the regular season.

Jalen Milroe's growth as Alabama quarterback has been one of the most fascinating aspects of the 2023 college football season. The sophomore has went through growing pains, but seems to be getting more confident each and every week and in turn, the Tide offense continues to improve. That doesn't mean Milroe is perfect - he'll mix in a few wild throws every once in awhile, but his legs give this Alabama offense an element they've missed at times during the Nick Saban era. The supporting cast also appears to be hitting its stride, with Roydell Williams and Jase McClellan providing a solid 1-2 punch out of the backfield, and Jermaine Burton and Isaiah Bond out wide. It's certainly not the most imposing group of skill position players Saban and staff have put out on the field, but it's been able to get the job done, and should match up nicely against this Auburn defense. With that being said, the X-factor remains the offensive line, which has been very un-Alabama like in 2023. The group appears to be playing better, but Auburn has enough athletes to throw at you to make things interesting. If anything, it will be an important game for the Tide offensive line to develop confidence and get into a rhythm before the real test, which is Georgia.

Part of the reason Hugh Freeze was brought in as head coach by Auburn is because of the explosive offenses he helped engineer during his stint at Liberty. Unfortunately, those explosive offenses haven't quite shown up in Year One on The Plains, as the Tigers 27.5 PPG total is 69th in the country. Although if there has been a bright spot, it's been an effective rushing attack that is Top 25 nationally, headlined by Jarquez Hunter. The Tigers will certainly look to establish the run game early on, but this is a bad matchup for them. Their offensive line, whose bad play effectively sunk the Bryan Harsin tenure (among other things), remains among the worst in the SEC, and they face an Alabama front loaded with future NFLers. The reality is that the Tigers are going to need something from their passing game if they are to spring an upset, a worrying need from an aerial attack that is among the worst in FBS ball. Payton Thorne's regression over the last two years has been a baffling watch after he tossed for 3,240 yards and 27 touchdowns in 2021 at Michigan State. Sure, Thorne was always a boom-or-bust passer, prone to the turnover as often as the big play, but there has been something missing this year at Auburn. That might be the lack of a true alpha on the perimeter, with tight end Rivaldo Fairweather as the team's top pass-catcher. Alabama's secondary certainly is not invincible, as we saw in the Texas defeat, but the script to beat them isn't easy, either. I'm not entirely sure this is an offense that can take advantage, even if there's some Iron Bowl magic thrown into the mix here.

You never know with these types of rivalry games, but it's difficult to find a reason to pick Auburn in an upset. This program may always be a thorn in the side of Nick Saban, but Freeze's first team doesn't look up to snuff, fresh off a shocking loss to New Mexico State. Even if they are able to hang with Alabama deep into the second half, I think the mighty Tide will keep on rolling into the SEC Championship Game.

The Pick: Alabama, 35 Auburn, 17


Other Picks

(#5) Florida State Seminoles @ Florida Gators -- This game got a lot more interesting due to unfortunate injuries to both starting quarterbacks. Yet, even with Tate Rodemaker under center, the Seminoles are still the better team top-to-bottom.

The Pick: Florida State, 24 Florida, 17

(#24) Clemson Tigers @ South Carolina Gamecocks -- It's been a less-than-ideal fall at Clemson, but the Tigers appear to have turned a corner. Their elite defensive front should terrorize a South Carolina O-Line that has been atrocious the entire year.

The Pick: Clemson, 31 South Carolina, 20

Wisconsin Badgers @ Minnesota Golden Gophers -- It hasn't been a banner year for either of these programs, but there's still plenty to play for in this ever-important rivalry. As much as I'd like to pick my Gophers, the continued absence of Darius Taylor and a surprisingly porous defense makes the Badgers the right pick.

The Pick: Wisconsin, 20 Minnesota, 14

Upset: (#17) Iowa Hawkeyes @ Nebraska Cornhuskers -- With the Hawkeyes officially in the Big Ten Championship Game, it wouldn't be shocking if they get caught looking ahead. Matt Rhule has had a strong debut campaign, and this would be the icing on the cake.

The Pick: Nebraska, 21 Iowa, 13

Superdog (covers > 21 point spread): Colorado Buffaloes (+21.5) @ Utah Utes -- Things have gone south for Deion Sanders and the Buffaloes, but Utah hasn't been playing at full strength all season and could struggle to defend a vertical Colorado passing game. 

The Pick: Utah, 34 Colorado, 20

Lock of the Week: Kansas Jayhawks (-7) @ Cincinnati Bearcats -- Two straight losses has knocked Kansas down a peg, but this is still a good football team, and Cincinnati is one of the worst Power Five teams in the nation.

The Pick: Kansas, 35 Cincinnati, 21


Sunday, November 12, 2023

CFB Coaching Carousel 2023: Evaluating Candidates to Replace Jimbo Fisher

Dan Lanning, Oregon

As compared to the last several years, the 2023 college football coaching carousel has been a quiet one, but the potential of a Jimbo Fisher firing seemed to loom over the entire cycle. This weekend that possibility turned into reality, with Texas A&M swallowing $75 million in buyout money to rid themselves of the sixth-year head coach. Jimbo will take that money and enjoy a vacation somewhere, but for A&M, the move seems to ramp up the pressure on the program. Since moving to the SEC, Texas A&M has been routinely "good" but is there a coach out there that can take them to elite status? I evaluate ten possible options to usher in a new era on the gridiron in College Station.


The Short List

There will be an abundance of names tossed around for such a high-profile, but these names are the ones I consider most likely. Not only do I think A&M would want them, but I believe the interest would likely be mutual.

Dan Lanning, Oregon Head Coach

The last three years of Dan Lanning's career should make every football coach in America jealous. He was the architect of one of the best defenses in college football history back in 2021 for the National Champion Georgia Bulldogs, and has followed it up with a pair of impressive seasons as head coach at Oregon. After a 10-3 debut, he has the Ducks firmly entrenched in the College Football Playoff mix, a feat Oregon has not achieved since 2014. At 37 years of age with a 19-4 career record and reputation an elite recruiter, it seems the sky is the limit for Lanning - and he should absolutely be on A&M's short list. Now, he doesn't have any obvious ties to the Aggies, but there are still powerful enough incentives for him to consider a move. For one, he'll get a chance to get back in the SEC and work in one of the best recruiting bases in the United States, but even more alluring? Lanning would reel in a staggering amount of money from A&M, likely quite a bit more than the $7 million he current makes with Oregon. It's hard to dismiss that amount of life-saving money, no matter Lanning's long-term priorities in Eugene.

Mike Elko, Duke Head Coach

Mike Elko's coaching stock has taken a bit of a hit due to the unfortunate injury to star QB Riley Leonard, but the Duke head man should still be an attractive name to suitors this winter. After a long and successful run as a defensive coordinator, including a four-year run as the A&M defensive coordinator, he's impressed in two seasons in charge at Duke. Elko has gone 15-8 with the Blue Devils up to this point, which becomes much more impressive when you consider the program had won a total of just 10 games the three years prior to his arrival. It's clear that Elko knows how to come in and turn things around in a hurry, and his familiarity with the program is a major selling point. He understands the culture here and knows what it takes to be successful on at least one side of the ball - that shouldn't be overlooked. He's not as flashy as others I'll mention, but I believe he'd be a strong hire.

Jeff Traylor, UTSA Head Coach

If Texas A&M brass wants to stay inside the state and land a coach with deep Texas ties, they couldn't do a ton better than Jeff Traylor. The UTSA head man was born in the state and has spent nearly his entire career in Texas, with the lone exception being two-year stint with Arkansas. After taking over at UTSA, Traylor has gone 37-13, and is looking for his third straight season with double-digit victories. It hasn't been just beating up on lowly opponents, either. Traylor has taken the program from the C-USA to the American Athletic and retained their competitive edge, including an undefeated mark in the league up to this point in the fall. Certainly going from UTSA to Texas A&M would be a major leap, but it feels like it's only a matter of time before Traylor makes the jump to the Power Five. If not at A&M, two other Texas schools likely looking for new head coaches this offseason, Baylor and Houston, would likely be in the mix. 


The Long Shots

Sometimes, coaching short lists are based more in fantasy than reality. There are plenty of names out there that likely would never take this job but hey, what's college football without some wild speculation?

Urban Meyer, former Florida & Ohio State Head Coach

It's now been a half-decade since Urban Meyer was last coaching on a college football sideline, but we just can't quit with the idea of his eventual return to the collegiate ranks. Now that he's 59 years of age it's feeling even less likely, but is there any part of him that wants to scratch the itch? I'd venture to guess college football coaching is becoming even less attractive to him with the NIL and roster management changes of the last several years, but you just never know with a guy like Urban.

Mike Norvell, Florida State Head Coach

Could Texas A&M really go back into Tallahassee and steal away their head coach once again? Likely not - for a variety of reasons. While Jimbo Fisher seemed eager to move on from Florida State, Mike Norvell seems to throughly enjoy his current situation in Tallahassee, and he's fully supported by the university. Just as important, Norvell's Florida State program seems to be on the rise, while Jimbo's was starting to feel stale when he left, several years removed from a National Title and the heights of the Jameis Winston era. SEC money may be enticing, but I'm not sure it's enough to swing Norvell to take this job based on where he's at in his career.

Dan Campbell, Detroit Lions Head Coach

We're past the days of successful NFL coaches returning to the collegiate ranks, but could the possibility of turning around his alma mater be enough to sway Dan Campbell? The former A&M tight end is 18-23 overall with the Lions, but has them shaping up to be an NFC Title contender this year. Campbell has become a fan favorite, both in Detroit and around the NFL, and if he did ever want to coach in college, he would likely kill it. But, the timing doesn't feel right with this one and even a notable name like Campbell likely wouldn't satisfy A&M brass considering his lack of college coaching experience.


The True "Home Run" Hires - But Unlikely

Kalen DeBoer, Washington Head Coach

What a job Kalen DeBoer has done in Seattle. DeBoer took over a program that had suffered through a horrendous stretch under Jimmy Lake and within two seasons, he has them competing for a College Football Playoff berth. It's not just the on-field success that makes him appealing to potential suitors, but also the way Washington plays. This is one of the most fun and exciting offenses anywhere in college football, enough to pack the stands anywhere in America. That's never an issue at Texas A&M, but for a program that dealt with years of Jimbo's frustrating offenses, this type of wide-open scheme would be a welcome change. But with Washington leaving for the Big Ten, it's likely Husky brass will pull out the red carpet to ensure their prized head man doesn't take off this winter.

Lance Leipold, Kansas Head Coach

No matter at what level or where in America, Lance Leipold does one thing: win. After six National Titles at his alma mater, Wisconsin-Whitewater, Leipold jumped to the FBS ranks and quickly turned around Buffalo, leading them to three straight bowls over his final three years there. Leipold again made the jump, this time to Kansas, and he has completely flipped the script at one of Power Five football's toughest locations. The Jayhawks have gone from 2-10, to 6-7, and are 7-3 and ranked in the Top 25, even after an upset loss to Texas Tech this past weekend. Much like Washington, Kansas decision-makers are going to do whatever they can to ensure Leipold is back for 2024 but the Texas A&M job just doesn't seem like the right for him, in my opinion. Leipold seems like the type of coach who would be fine staying in the Midwest at a job with less pressure, whether at Kansas long-term or somewhere else.

Jonathan Smith, Oregon State Head Coach

He's still not super well-known outside the Pacific Northwest, but Jonathan Smith is one of the best college football coaches in the country, full stop. The one-time Oregon State quarterback has done a wonderful job with his alma mater, leading the Beavers to their third consecutive winning season this fall, including an 18-5 mark in his last 23 games. It's going to be hard to peel him away from a school that he clearly adores, but Oregon State does have an uncertain football future and with a $2.4 million salary, plenty could offer Smith more money. But again, the fit here feels strange to me and I just can't wrap my head around it, even though I believe the credentials here are more than worthy.


Other Names to Watch

It feels like there's an endless list of options for this particular job. So in that spirit, here are even more to consider!

Glenn Schumann, Georgia Defensive Coordinator

Dan Lanning has gone from Georgia defensive coordinator to a winning head football coach - could Glenn Schumann be next? Schumann is a Kirby Smart disciple, the first coach Smart lured away from Alabama when he took over in Athens. That relationship alone would make it hard for him to move on, but Schumann's success on the defensive side of the ball speaks for itself. 

Jedd Fisch, Arizona Head Coach

Jedd Fisch has steadily progressed at Arizona, and has the Wildcats in the Top 25 in Year Three. It's been an impressive run for a coach that had begun to develop a reputation as a journeyman, and with how young Arizona's roster is, the future is incredibly bright. My bet is that Fisch, who has no obvious ties to A&M, would rather stay put here and cash in on that future than take his chances in College Station.

Brian Hartline, Ohio State Offensive Coordinator

One of the top recruiters in college football right now, Brian Hartline was recently promoted from his perch as Ohio State WR coach to the school's offensive coordinator. It's likely he'll keep on moving up the ranks, but it's hard to imagine what that next path would look like if he stays put in Columbus.

Lane Kiffin, Ole Miss Head Coach

Lane Kiffin is always a wild card, and it doesn't feel like Ole Miss is the end goal for the 48-year old head coach. For all the chaos and controversy that seems to follow Lane, there's no denying his success on the field, and a place like A&M would offer him nearly unlimited resources to build the roster of his choosing.

Deion Sanders, Colorado Head Coach

Deion may be in the midst of a four-game losing streak, but it feels like only a matter of time before a big-name program takes a swing at him. Despite sitting under .500 with the Buffaloes as things stand today, he's still accomplished a pretty impressive turnaround in one offseason, and the attention he brings with him is a selling point for many. 

Thursday, November 9, 2023

College Football Picks 2023: Week Eleven

J.J. McCarthy, Michigan

Current Picks Record: 61-29

Upsets: 6-4

Superdogs: 6-4

Locks: 7-3


(#3) Michigan Wolverines @ (#10) Penn State Nittany Lions

Line: Michigan -4.5

O/U: 44.5

For all the controversy surrounding Michigan off-the-field, Jim Harbaugh's team remains in the driver's seat in the Big Ten. Sure, Ohio State may hold the top spot in the CFB Playoff rankings, but the Wolverines have looked like the better team, albeit against a much softer schedule. That changes this weekend, as Michigan faces what is truly their first significant test of the fall: a road trip to Happy Valley. At 8-1, Penn State has proven they are so much more than a third wheel to OSU and Michigan in the East, but can James Franklin finally topple a top team on the national stage?

Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy might not have the gaudy stats of the West Coast quarterbacks, but remains in the thick of the Heisman race, coming in fourth on the current odds at this point in the season. It's a testament to how in control the signal-caller has been, leading an efficient and consistent Wolverine offense. Of course, it helps that he's supported by an elite offensive line, and one of the nation's top running back duos to take some pressure off him, in Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards. But, the Penn State defense offers a different test than these Wolverines have seen so far this fall. This is one of the best defensive fronts anywhere in the county, a group stocked to the brim with NFL talent. Not only are rushing lanes going to be hard to come by, Manny Diaz is going to be drawing up relentless pressure. Does that mean we will see McCarthy take more shots down the field in an effort to open things up? So far, the Michigan passing game has lived and died by the underneath stuff, primarily because it hasn't been necessary to do anything more. I suspect that won't be the case in this one, but even trying to throw agains the Nittany Lions is easier said than done; corner Kalen King leads one of the top secondaries in college football.

Speaking of elite running back duos, Penn State features their own in Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton. The pair has essentially split feature back duties right down the middle (Allen with 119 carries, Singleton with 121) and although the big plays haven't quite been there this year as they were in 2022, they've been awfully productive. There's little doubt Penn State will look to establish the run early and often, but that wasn't the issue in the Ohio State loss, it was the complete ineptitude of their passing attack. Sophomore QB Drew Allar is still experiencing growing pains and despite plenty of bright spots, this is going to be a tough matchup for him. Michigan is the type of physical, disciplined defense that makes offenses fight for every yard, and they excel on third down. That's bad news for an offense that went a staggering 1-16 on third downs against the Buckeyes last month. I'll be interested if there's any change in strategy from James Franklin and OC Mike Yurcich. Do they look to incorporate more gadget or screen plays in an effort to manufacture yardage? To be fair to Allar, it's not just his fault either that the passing game has lagged at times. This may be the worst receiver group of Franklin's entire tenure - beyond KeAndre Lambert-Smith, there's nobody that can get consistently open, and even Lambert-Smith is an iffy No. 1 option. That's a real concern and the past few weeks haven't seemingly alleviated those concerns, even if this group dropped 51 against Maryland.

A November game in the that will be in the 30s, featured two of the best defenses in the country? Yeah, this is going to be a Big Ten football game, alright. It's probably not going to be very pretty, a game where field position is at a premium and a turnover or special teams play could make all the difference. I still believe Michigan is the better football team but how do they respond to this level of test? The sign-stealing controversy makes them such a wild card to me - will it provide even more motivation or be the distraction that derails an otherwise special 2023? This Saturday will tell us quite a bit.

The Pick: Michigan, 24 Penn State, 17


(#9) Ole Miss Rebels @ (#2) Georgia Bulldogs

Line: Georgia -10.5

O/U: 58.5

Following Alabama's win over LSU last weekend, it's looking more and more like we will see another battle between the Tide and mighty Georgia Bulldogs in the SEC Championship Game. But, the 8-1 Ole Miss Rebels might have something to say about that, as they remain firmly in the SEC West mix, although the Tide do own the tiebreaker over them. Going into Sanford Stadium and pulling off the upset for the No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs would be the ultimate statement from Lane Kiffin and company, and the Rebels have nothing to lose this Saturday.

Kiffin-coached teams have typically been known for their offense, but this year's Rebels team brings much more balance to the equation. They can still light up the scoreboard when necessary, but this is also one of the most improved defenses in the nation under coordinator Pete Golding. That will be crucial in any hopes of an upset bid, as they face a Georgia offense that has been surprisingly explosive all season. Quarterback Carson Beck has impressed in his first season as starter and he doesn't appear to be slowing down anytime soon. Missouri did an excellent job keeping him in check for most of the game last Saturday, but he still finished with 254 yards and two touchdowns, but that's not even the most important part - he simply doesn't turn the ball over. That's going to be important against an opportunistic Rebels defense that is going to play with reckless abandon in this one. Beck may be without his top target in tight end Brock Bowers, but the Bulldogs continue to find new weapons to emerge on the perimeter and the ground game seems to be getting better each and every week. Daijun Edwards and Kendall Milton may not be the most fearsome tailback combo Kirby Smart and company have trotted out in recent years, but they have been effective enough to provide this team balance. With Beck making things happen through the air, even a serviceable ground attack has made this offense consistently excellent.

There's been good balance on the Rebel offense all season long, too, which hasn't always been the case for Lane Kiffin in Oxford. Quinshon Judkins looked well on his way to becoming one of the best running backs anywhere in the country, but he's instead been outshined by quarterback Jaxson Dart and a superb passing game. Dart has nearly 3,000 yards of total offense and 23 total touchdowns, while limiting turnovers and playing confident football. It has felt like a statement campaign for Dart, who watched Ole Miss add two notable QB transfers over the offseason in Spencer Sanders and Walker Howard, but beat them both out to hold on to his starting job. The emergence of a strong wide receiver trio in Tre Harris, Jordan Watkins, and Dayton Wade has also been a pleasant surprise. Harris, a former Louisiana Tech transfer, has been the big-play threat, while it's Watkins and Wade that can open things up horizontally and soften up defenses. I'm sure Lane will be eager to draw up something new and tricky for the challenge Georgia possesses, and I do think this offense is up for the challenge. The main concern I have? Dart, and this entire unit, have a real knack for struggling in big games like this. The Alabama game is a perfect example, with the Rebels managing just 301 yards and ten points in a losing effort. Is going on the road to face a stifling Bulldog defense going to flip the script?

I've picked against Ole Miss multiple times this season, but the Rebels just keep on winning, with the chance to vault themselves into the Playoff discussion with an upset. But, I remain skeptical that this is the team that is going to go into Sanford Stadium and break Georgia's 26-game win steak. It would take some extra Lane Kiffin magic and even that doesn't seem to always show up in these types of games.

The Pick: Georgia, 35 Ole Miss, 21


(#18) Utah Utes @ (#5) Washington Huskies

Line: Washington -9.5

O/U: 49.5

Sitting at 9-0 and with the Heisman frontrunner under center, Washington is in position to become the first Pac-12 to make the College Football Playoff since they achieved the feat all the way back in 2016. But, standing in their is a brutal end to their regular season, with Utah, Oregon State, and Washington State remaining on their schedule. First up is the Utes, who will travel to Seattle fresh off a 55-3 dismantling of Arizona State.

If you haven't had a chance to watch the Washington offense this fall, you're missing out. Penix is the figurehead, but he's far from the only playmaker, as the Huskies feature arguably the nation's top receiver corps and an underrated tailback in Dillon Johnson. With the unlimited arm strength of Penix, the Huskies haven't been afraid to take shots down the field, and play-caller Ryan Grubb is creative in how he opens up gaping holes in the defense. No unit has been able to slow them down this season, with the lone exception being an Arizona State team that got them the week after the exhausting Oregon victory. But, Utah does present an interesting challenge for Penix and company. This is one of the most consistent defenses you'll find anywhere in the country and the physicality they play with is just a grind. There are more talented defenses, sure, but the way the Utes play just has a way of grinding you down. They're particularly strong up front and should give the Washington offensive line a battle, although it's the back-end I'm curious about. Despite having Clark Phillips III, the Utes struggled to defend the pass a season ago, but have seen improvements this year. If they can hold Penix in check and potentially force a few turnovers, this game could get very interesting very fast.

To say that Utah plays a different brand of offense than Washington is an understatement. As compared to the Huskies, who boast the nation's top passing offense, the Utes rank 123rd and are led by backup signal-caller Bryson Barnes. Barnes has been solid, but it's the ground game that really makes the Utes go, spearheaded by the duo of Ja'Quinden Jackson and Jaylon Glover. Jackson is a key difference-maker; when he's on, Utah has been able to find a rhythm early and feed the passing game. But, the Oregon game was the perfect example of how the offense can struggle when he's taken out of the game. On the perimeter, Mikey Matthews and DeVaughn Vele have been effective and should give a mediocre Husky secondary difficulties. Then, there's the ultimate wild card of the offense: two-way weapon Sione Vaki, if we do indeed say him play both ways this week. Vaki looked like the next sensation during a monster two-week stretch in mid-November, but hasn't been deployed offensively in the last two weeks. It feels like the Ute offense may need an extra boost, and he Vaki is the type of weapon that can provide just that.

It's going to be a month of tests for Washington as they finish off November, but they still maintain a clear advantage in this matchup. Kyle Whittingham and staff have whipped up a magical season considering the circumstances, but going on the road to face an explosive Huskies team is a lot to ask this deep into the season. If Penix continues rolling and the Huskies contain Jackson and the Ute ground game, they should be able to reach the double-digit win mark.

The Pick: Washington, 38 Utah, 27


Other Picks

USC Trojans @ (#6) Oregon Ducks -- Alex Grinch may be gone, but I'm not convinced that will fix USC's defensive woes. Unless they completely transform within the span of a week, Bo Nix, Bucky Irving, and Troy Franklin are going to have a field day.

The Pick: Oregon, 48 USC, 31

(#13) Tennessee Volunteers @ (#14) Missouri Tigers -- In what essentially acts as the SEC East second place game, Tennessee goes on the road to face a Missouri team that gave Georgia a game last week. I remain extremely high on these Tigers, and they should come out on top in a game with significant shootout potential.

The Pick: Missouri, 42 Tennessee, 34

Miami Hurricanes @ (#4) Florida State Seminoles -- You never know in these types of rivalry games, but Florida State has answered the call each and every week of the season, and get the Hurricanes in Doak Campbell.

The Pick: Florida State, 31 Miami, 21

Upset: Texas Tech Red Raiders @ (#16) Kansas Jayhawks -- It's been a dream season for Lance Leipold and company, but the upset-minded Red Raiders have the capabilities to match them blow-by-blow in a classic Big 12 duel.

The Pick: Texas Tech, 38 Kansas, 35

Superdog (covers > 21 point spread): Baylor Bears (+21.5) @ Kansas State Wildcats -- Kansas State has played themselves into prime position in the Big 12 race, but this is rarely the type of offense to play away from folks early. The Bears could hang along long to cover this spread.

The Pick: Kansas State, 31 Baylor, 14

Lock of the Week: Alabama Crimson Tide (-11) @ Kentucky Wildcats -- Alabama seems to be getting better each week, and seems to be evolving into the monster that we've come to know them under Nick Saban. Going to Lexington will be an intriguing test, but a stifling Alabama defense shouldn't have too much trouble with a Kentcuky offense that has struggled to find a rhythm all year.

The Pick: Alabama, 34 Kentucky, 17

Sunday, November 5, 2023

College Basketball Preview 2023-24: My Top 20

Kyle Filipowski
 

Top 20

1. Kansas Jayhawks

Backcourt: Back to run the show offensively for the Jayhawks is redshirt junior Dajuan Harris, fresh off a career year in 2022-23. The steady veteran posted career highs across the board a season ago and his disruptive on-ball defense led to him being named Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year. He'll be joined by wing Kevin McCullar Jr., a former Texas Tech transfer who flirted with the pros before deciding to return to Lawrence for another year. Those two will play an outsized role not only on the entire team, but this backcourt in particular, as experience beyond them is limited. That doesn't mean there isn't talent, as true freshman Elmarko Jackson was a major pickup from the East Coast who most around the program feel will contribute in a major way this winter.

Frontcourt: Kansas ended up as the winners of the Hunter Dickinson sweepstakes, landing the high-scoring big after his surprising decision to move on from Michigan after three years. It's hard to overstate how huge of a pickup this is for the Jayhawks; Dickinson has All-American talent and even more, there should be an extra level of motivation after two consecutive frustrating seasons in Ann Arbor. Dickinson will operate as the Jayhawks' centerpiece up front, but junior K.J. Adams will also play a crucial role. Adams was the heartbeat of the Jayhawks a year ago, as his improvement helped preserve KU atop the Big 12. The 6'7" junior can do it all; his offensive game has grown in a major way since he first stepped on campus and defensively, his ability to guard multiple spots gives this team plenty of versatility. He just does so many things well, his impact on the game goes well beyond the stat sheet.

Bottom Line: Although the Jayhawks were unable to defend their National Title, Bill Self's every-steady program remains an absolute machine. They reload as well as anyone in the country and now enter this season flush with veteran leadership and a National Player of the Year candidate. If they can stay healthy, which includes Self, it's not crazy to think they can lift their second National Championship trophy in three years.

2. Duke Blue Devils

Backcourt: The inconsistent play of point guard Jeremy Roach has made him a controversial figure among Duke fans, but the reality is that having a proven piece like him running the show is a major luxury in modern college basketball. He's coming off his best season with the Blue Devils, a year in which he averaged 13.6 points per game, while improving his shooting numbers from three-point and free throw. It should help take pressure off Roach now that Duke has firepower alongside him in the backcourt, including Tyrese Proctor and highly touted newcomer Jared McCain. Proctor is another guy who flirted with the NBA, but his decision to return could be the springboard towards a breakout campaign. 

Frontcourt: 2022-23 lacked the usual collection of superstar true freshmen we've become accustomed to in modern college basketball, but Kyle Filipowski was dominant from start to finish. The seven-footer averaged 15.1 PPG and 8.9 RPG, becoming just the Blue Devil in program history to earn ACC Rookie of the Year and ACC Tournament MVP honors in the same season. He would have been a lock to go in the 2023 NBA Draft lottery, but his decision to return to Durham cemented the Blue Devils as National Title contenders. Fortunately, Filipowski isn't the only Blue Devil big set to make an impact this season, as forward Mark Mitchell and center Ryan Young are both back, with true frosh T.J. Power also set to come in and play right away. Mitchell finished strong in '22-'23 and has All-ACC talent, while Young's value to this team shouldn't be overlooked. The former Northwestern transfer is a reliable contributor whose presence down low can open up Filipowski to work on the perimeter.

Bottom Line: There were plenty of ups-and-downs during Jon Scheyer's fist season as head man, but despite a disappointing second round exit, you saw things come together down the stretch for this team. Now, Scheyer has the opportunity to pair together Roach, an elite sophomore trio, and a top-notching recruiting class, a formula that could lead to Duke's first National Title since 2015.

3. Purdue Boilermakers

Backcourt: I'm not sure even the most optimistic of Boilermaker fans could have expected Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer to be so good so quickly in 2022-23. The first-year duo started all 35 games for Purdue and both secured a spot on the Big Ten All-Freshman Team. The next step is carrying that play into March, and with Smith's savviness and Loyer's shot-making ability, that shouldn't be too difficult. The return of Ethan Morton provides Matt Painter another program staple to work with this winter, as Morton prepares for Year Four in West Lafayette. Morton isn't much more than a complementary piece offensively, but his stellar defense sets the tone for the entire team. He'll consistently be asked to take on opponent's top scorer, and seems to relish in the opportunity on any given night. 

Frontcourt: There may not have been a more consequential NBA Draft decision this summer than Zach Edey's, as the reigning National Player of the Year waited until the eleventh hour to decide on his return to Purdue. Love him or hate him, there's no denying Edey's enormous impact on the court, thanks to a remarkably consistent offensive game and disruptive defensive abilities. It's not just the size either; I'm consistently amazed how well the 7'4" big man moves, and his ability to control his body means that getting him into foul trouble is a fool's errand. He's going to top NPOY odds all season long. However, he wasn't the only impact returnee to this frontcourt over the offseason, as the trio of Mason Gillis, Caleb Furst, and Trey Kaufman-Renn will be huge for the Boilermakers. Furst and Gillis are already proven commodities, and it wouldn't surprise me if Kaufman-Renn has his breakout after showing flashes as a redshirt freshman.

Bottom Line: Few programs in college basketball enter 2023-24 under as much pressure as the Purdue Boilermakers. For all the success the program has had under Matt Painter, their March misfortunes have become deafening. There are no excuses this year, with the top player in the country back in the fold and an extremely balanced, well-rounded roster. It's Final Four or bust in West Lafayette.

4. UConn Huskies

Backcourt: With Jordan Hawkins off to the NBA after a remarkable run in the NCAA Tournament, UConn is looking for others to emerge this winter. Topping that list is Tristen Newton, a former East Carolina transfer who started 38 games for the Huskies a season ago. Newton's impact on the National Title is often overlooked, as he recorded a double-double in the Championship Game, but can he step up and be the focal point for an entire season? Having shooters to open up the floor for Newton will help, so landing Rutgers transfer Cam Spencer was huge. Spencer shot 43% from three-point territory last season and never shies away from the big moment. He'll likely man the two-guard spot, but others like Stephon Castle and Hassan Diarra will factor into the backcourt rotation.

Frontcourt: There's also a changing of the guard in the UConn frontcourt, as Adama Sanogo moves on after a legendary career in Storrs. Fortunately, big man Donovan Clingan looks like he has the chance to be one of the sport's breakout characters this season, assuming he recovers from a foot strain suffered in late September. He's more mobile than Sanogo, which should give this offense a different look than it had last season. Also back is forward Alex Karaban, a stretch four who was a pleasant surprise in 2023-24. Much like Newton and Clingan, is he ready to go from being a complementary piece to becoming one of the guys this winter?

Bottom Line: Fresh off one of the most dominant NCAA Tournament runs in college basketball history, UConn is unlikely to show any signs of slowing down. They return several key contributors from last year's team and filled out holes through the portal and high school recruiting. They should be firmly in the mix to repeat, and look to be the class of a strong Big East once more.

5. Michigan State Spartans

Backcourt: Just about every big name is back in the Michigan State backcourt, with Tyson Walker opting to use his extra year of eligibility, and both A.J. Hoggard and Jaden Akins waiting on the pros. Walker and Hoggard both made strides last season and could form one of the most formidable guard tandems in the Big Ten, while Akins was one of the breakout stars on last year's team. He about doubled his minutes and responded with strong numbers across the board, including shooting 42% from three-point territory. There's also sophomore Tre Holloman, who flashed significant upside in limited minutes last year and could be ready for an expanded role. Top-to-bottom, it's one of the deepest backcourts Tom Izzo has ever built in East Lansing, giving Spartan fans plenty of reason to believe it could be a special year for the program.

Frontcourt: Much like Walker, Malik Hall's decision to use his extra year of eligibility was a major offseason win for the Spartans. The forward has been a program staple for years as an ultra-reliable piece, but you've always wondered if there was another level he could reach. Last season looked like it could be the year he put it all together, but instead Hall missed a big chunk of the season to a left foot injury. He's set to be 100 percent to begin 2023-24, providing the Spartans a proven commodity to their frontcourt. Alongside him, another familiar face will be center Mady Sissoko, who enters his senior season. It's been a slow burn for Sissoko in the collegiate ranks, but he had his best season in 2022-23, proving to be the relentless rebounder and physical rim protector Michigan State has often lacked. He isn't going to stuff the stat sheet full on most nights, but the value he brings to this team shouldn't be overlooked. Beyond those two, the Spartans have a host of young, but talented, pieces aiming to differentiate themselves. Jaxon Kohler flashed aplenty in his first season with the program last winter and will look to carve out a more defined role, while highly touted true freshman Xavier Booker is a lock to play right away. The 6'11" freshman from Indianapolis is the highest-rated recruit to ever sign with Izzo, and has a chance to be the most dominant interior presence MSU has had since Draymond Green.

Bottom Line: Michigan State was one of the major winners of the offseason, getting surprising returns from Walker, Hall, Hoggard, and Akins, and securing the services of Booker. They will be one of the most experienced teams in the nation in 2023-24 and likely to battle Purdue for Big Ten supremacy all winter long. If they can stay healthy, a potential Final Four berth could be in the cards and maybe, just maybe, Izzo's first National Title in over two decades.

6. Marquette Golden Eagles

Backcourt: Senior guard Tyler Kolek is one of my favorite players in college basketball, a crafty lead guard that is one of the best passers you'll ever see at this level. He racked up the accolades after a dominant junior campaign, but the early March exit had to have left a bad taste in his mouth. He should be extra motivated, as will backcourt mate Kam Jones, who led the Golden Eagles in scoring in 2022-23. The 6'5" junior is just a pure scorer; he's effective from every space on the floor and his blend of size and quickness makes him potent in isolation opportunities. Jones and Kolek are an ideal pairing, two players that play off each other really well and set the entire team up for success. Add in rock-solid Stevie Mitchell, who returns for junior campaign, this is an exceptionally strong backcourt.

Frontcourt: The lone starter that departed over the offseason was Olivier-Maxence Prosper, whose impressive showing in the pre-Draft process earned him a spot in the first round. Certainly it's a notable loss, but Marquette is unlikely to feel drastic effects from it, as David Joplin averaged 19.1 minutes per games a season ago and should slide right into a starting role. Alongside Joplin is Oso Ighodaro, who had a huge junior season and now looks to one of the top big men in the Big East. At 6'11", Ighodaro is a load to handle in the paint and he's really grown his offensive game to be a two-way force.

Bottom Line: Second round NCAA Tournament exit aside, Marquette's 2022-23 was an unmitigated success. It was the Golden Eagles, not eventual National Champion UConn Huskies, who ended up as Big East regular season champs, and their 27 total victories were the most for the program since they went to the Final Four in 2003 with Dwyane Wade. With four starters back, Shaka Smart has all the pieces in place for a deep NCAA Tournament run, something that has eluded him since VCU's remarkable run over a decade ago.

7. Houston Cougars

Backcourt: Marcus Sasser and Tramon Mark may have moved on over the offseason, but Kelvin Sampson and staff responded with several huge transfer portal additions, namely L.J. Cryer and Damian Dunn. Cryer played 70 games over three seasons with the Baylor Bears and is coming off his best season yet, averaging 15 points per contest. Dunn comes down south after four years with the Temple Owls; he's not the long-range threat Cryer is, but Dunn brings a well-rounded game and clear scoring prowess. Those two should pair nicely with the guards Houston already has on their roster, namely Jamal Shead. Shead has been a steady contributor each of the last two seasons and partnered with Cryer, gives the Cougars two superb ball-handlers.

Frontcourt: Houston loses a lottery selection up front, as Jarace Walker was picked eighth overall after an impressive one-year run with the Cougars. Walker is an important loss, a hard-working forward that was a force on the glass and could guard multiple positions. Besides just the loss of Walker, there are significant questions here. Sampson has always run a bit of a non-traditional lineup, but it's likely we'll see wing Terrance Arceneaux and forward J'Wan Roberts often guard opponents much larger than them. Even so, Houston is a relentless rebounding team and they put a major emphasis on their defense. I suspect that will help them maintain their edge up front, even if they don't have the size to match others.

Bottom Line: Houston dominated the American Athletic after the arrival of Kelvin Sampson, but they will begin a new chapter in their basketball history in 2023-24. Life in the Big 12 begins, one of the toughest and deepest leagues in America, which certainly will test the foundation that Sampson has built here. Fortunately, this is the right team to make the jump, with ample experience and a couple of important transfers filling in the holes. There may be a learning curve, but I suspect the Cougars will be firmly in the Big 12 Title mix right away with this group.

8. Florida Atlantic Owls

Backcourt: Head coach Dusty May has embraced the possibilities of the guard-centric landscape of modern college basketball, often running a lineup that includes four guards and one big. Of course, it helps that Florida Atlantic is stocked to the brim with talent in the backcourt, most of which decided to stay put after their miraculous Final Four run. Bryan Greenlee will run the offense as the starting point guard, a capable distributor who is a pesky defender, while Alijah Martin, Nick Boyd, and Johnell Davis are likely to reprise their roles as starters. Davis and Martin led the Owls in scoring last season, but the amazing thing about this lineup is its balance. Any one of these four can handle the scoring burden when needed, and even bench pieces like Brandon Weatherspoon and Jalen Gaffney play an important role. Few teams in the country are going to be able to counter the weapons Florida Atlantic can throw at you, an advantage they'll enjoy night-in, night-out.

Frontcourt: Russian big man Vladislav Goldin was one of the breakout stars of the 2023 NCAA Tournament. Although his numbers rarely jumped off the page, he played an outsized role as one of the few true big men on FAU's roster. He'll be back to handle post duties once again, and the Owls are hoping he can take even greater leaps this winter. Junior forward Giancarlo Rosado is going to be the other big man we see plenty of this year, after he appeared in all 39 games last season. Rosado isn't as long as Goldin, but plays much larger than his 6'8" frame may suggest, and is a ferocious competitor. The offense isn't going to run through either Goldin or Rosado, but the efficiency that both offer does enough to keep defenses honest.

Bottom Line: For as shocking as Florida Atlantic's Final Four run was last season, it was no fluke. The Owls dominated the Conference USA all season and per advanced metrics, were actually under-seeded on the nine line. So, even as they make the jump to the American Athletic, the Owls should remain a fixture on the national scene. They won't sneak up on everybody like they did a year ago, but with so much back, replicating that success isn't completely out of the question.

9. Creighton Bluejays

Backcourt: Ryan Nembhard's surprising decision to transfer was a real blow to Greg McDermott and Creighton, but they responded by convincing Baylor Scheierman to return for a final season. Scheierman was as good as advertised after transferring in from South Dakota State, averaging 12.8 points and 8.3 rebounds per game. As the focal point of the Creighton attack this year, he has serious All-American potential. Junior guard Trey Alexander was another important returnee after a huge '22-'23 season, and McDermott is hopeful that Utah State transfer Steven Ashworth can acclimate quickly and handle Nembhard's vacated point guard spot.

Frontcourt: Much like the backcourt, the Bluejay frontcourt loses a big-name transfer in Arthur Kaluma, but returns a key piece in center Ryan Kalkbrenner. The seven-footer has gotten better each year he's been in Omaha and is one of the most efficient scorers anywhere in the country, averaging 15.9 PPG on 70% shooting last season. He's going to be leaned on even more without Kaluma, who played an important role at the four spot, but there's a chance sophomore Mason Miller could be ready to step in. Miller was a role player throughout his first season campus, playing just about nine minutes per game, but has the necessary tools to become a more consistent contributor in 2023-24.

Bottom Line: Creighton came agonizingly close to the program's first-ever Final Four appearance last spring, but came away as winners of the offseason by bringing back the trio of Scheierman, Alexander, and Kalkbrenner. That's not to diminish the losses of Nembhard and Kaluma, but McDermott responded by working the portal to his benefit, and there are other pieces on the roster that should step up. Expect the Bluejays to be right there with UConn and Marquette in the battle for the Big East crown.

10. Kentucky Wildcats

Backcourt: Although Kentucky returns a solid lead guard in Antonio Reeves, who averaged 14.4 PPG in his first season coming from Illinois State, all eyes are on the shiny newcomers in Lexington. In the backcourt, that includes the trio of Justin Edwards, Rob Dillingham, and D.J. Wagner. All three are ranked in the Top 20 nationally for the Class of 2023 and will all see immediate playing time, with Edwards and Wagner leading the way. The 6'8" Edwards is going to provide plenty of highlight plays with his athleticism, but it will be interesting to see whether he can handle being one of the focal points of the offense. Wagner, a combo guard who should have no issue coming in alongside Reeves, looks college-ready. He's the son of former Memphis star Dajuan Wagner, who played for John Calipari with the Tigers in the early 2000s.

Frontcourt: Oscar Tshiebwe is gone, meaning Kentucky must start anew in the frontcourt this season. The 2022 National Player of the Year wasn't quite as dominant this past season, but is still a major loss. Calipari reloaded with plenty of young talent, including freshman Aaron Bradshaw, but the big offseason addition here actually came through the portal in the form of Tre Mitchell from West Virginia. It is Mitchell's fourth college team, as he began his career at UMass before pit stops at Texas and WVU, but he's shown an ability to be an effective frontcourt piece. Most importantly, his experience will be crucial on a team relying on an immense amount of youth. Another "veteran" piece, at least compared to the rest of this roster, is seven-foot sophomore Ugonna Onyenso. Onyenso was a deep bench option a season ago but did play in 16 games and considered he reclassified into the 2022 Class, he should benefit greatly from a full offseason with the program.

Bottom Line: John Calipari embraced the "one-and-done" era like no other coach in college basketball, but his last several teams have instead leaning heavily on transfers and veteran pieces. It hasn't worked, as Calipari hasn't reached the NCAA Tournament's second weekend since 2019, so he's done a complete 180 and will be relying once again on an untested batch of high school recruits. It is one of the most talented groups Cal has ever assembled in Lexington, but how quickly will this group gel? There's a chance this team could make a run at an SEC Title if things work out, but it could easily go the other direction, too. It's a true boom-or-bust scenario as Calipari enters the year under significant pressure.

11. Miami Hurricanes

Backcourt: The Hurricanes lose a pair of high-scoring guards in Isaiah Wong and Jordan Miller, but were blessed by the return of Nijel Pack. Pack looked the part in his first season in Coral Gables after beginning his career at Kansas State, as he averaged 13.6 PPG on strong shooting numbers. Even more will be expected of Pack this season, but the cupboard around him is far from bare. Head coach Jim Larranaga is very high on junior guard Wooga Pogler, who will slide into a starting role, while Matthew Cleveland was a nice get out of the transfer portal. Cleveland, formerly a five-star prospect, played two seasons at Florida State and put up quality numbers on a very bad basketball team last year. He's the most purely talented player now on Miami's roster, bringing immediate playmaking.

Frontcourt: Miami will lean on their backcourt once more in 2023-24, but the value of forward Norchad Omier shouldn't be completely discounted. The 6'7" forward is a rebounding machine and thanks to a nice shooting touch, he averaged a double-double last season. He gives the 'Canes a proven presence on the interior, but there are others that will need to emerge if this team is going to handle the rigors of an ACC schedule. Perhaps true freshman Michael Nwoko could do just that, as the 6'10" center from Toronto has the physical gifts to be an immediate difference-maker. His offensive game will need refinement but if he can provide instant impact on the defensive end, Miami becomes a lot scarier.

Bottom Line: Nearly two decades after his first Final Four run with the George Mason Patriots, Jim Larranaga engineered another improbable run with the Miami Hurricanes. Of course the situations are certainly not the same, as the Hurricanes were a five seed and perched near the top of the ACC standings all of 2023-24, but it still came as a surprise that this team was able to come within a win of a National Championship Game trip. The quest for Larranaga now becomes different: maintaining that success. The returns of Pack and Omier are a solid starting point and the 'Canes did good work on the recruiting trail and in the portal. With the ACC wide open beyond Duke, Miami could slide in nicely into that No. 2 spot.

12. Gonzaga Bulldogs

Backcourt: Landing Ryan Nembhard was a huge win for Mark Few and staff, bringing in a quality lead guard who knows the program, following in the footsteps of his older brother Andrew. Nembhard will join up with Nolan Hickman to create a solid backcourt duo, but I am curious if one will be able to emerge as a top scoring option. They're mainly known as distributors at this point in their career, but Gonzaga will need more scoring punch if they are to continue their success on a national scale. Perhaps that could come from Eastern Washington transfer Steele Venters, a deadeye shooter who averaged 15.3 points per game with the Eagles in 2022-23.

Frontcourt: Life after Drew Timme begins for the Gonzaga frontcourt this winter. It's hard to fully describe the enormous impact Timme had on the program, a crafty, savvy big man with one of the most developed offensive post games in recent college basketball history. The Bulldogs don't just lose an elite scorer, they lose a leader. Fortunately, Anton Watson emerged last season as a genuine threat up front and should offset the loss in a way, although it will be a jump as he becomes a feature option. Forward Ben Gregg is another holdover from last year's team who will be expected to play a larger role after playing about 12 minutes per game last year. Then there's newcomer Graham Ike, who gives this team a big body in the middle. Ike is a bit of a risk, as he's fresh off a leg injury that caused him to miss the entirety of the 2022-23 season. But when he was healthy back in 2021-22, he averaged 19.5 PPG and 9.6 RPG for Wyoming, so he's certainly worth the risk. If he can recapture that magic, he could be among the best bigs in the West Coast Conference.

Bottom Line: Gonzaga was hit hard by departures over the offseason, leaving the program in a state of transition entering 2023-24. Mark Few and this program have earned the benefit of the doubt and it's highly likely they'll be a Top 10 team and WCC frontrunner, but there is plenty of experience and scoring prowess out the door. It's not just Drew Timme, but Rasir Bolton and Julian Strawther, meaning others are going to have to emerge. That's happened before in Spokane and this ranking could be far too low when it's all said and done.

13. Arkansas Razorbacks

Backcourt: With Anthony Black and Nick Smith both playing in the NBA, Arkansas is going to be leaning on a new cast of characters in 2023-24. Although, Davonte "Devo" Davis isn't one of them, as the senior is now expected to be one of the primary scoring options for Eric Musselman. Joining him will be Houston transfer Tramon Mark, who played in 76 games over his Cougar career and should be ready for SEC ball. Mark is a relentless defender who should be able to fit in nicely with the up-tempo pace Musselman wants to play at. He's a sure thing to play right away coming in from the portal, as is Temple transfer Khalif Battle. Battle notched 17.9 PPG for the Owls last season and still offers two years of eligibility remaining despite beginning his fourth year in the collegiate ranks. 

Frontcourt: The X-factor this season for the Razorbacks will undoubtedly be the health of forward Trevon Brazile. The electrifying athlete looked he was on his way towards a special season before a torn ACL knocked him out nine games into the year. The hope is that he'll be ready for the start of the season and retain the bounciness that made him such a show-stopper this past season, but Arkansas will need to be patient. That could mean names like Makhi Mitchell and Chandler Lawson, both former transfers, see crucial roles on this roster, at least to begin the year. There's also freshman Baye Fall, a player with loads of upside, but one that may need time to adjust to the pace of the collegiate ranks. Fall moves amazingly well for being 6'11" and the raw tools are there, it will be interesting how much we see of him this year.

Bottom Line: Although the SEC remains strong at the top, there's a lack of a clear frontrunner, which provides a valuable motivator for Musselman's team. They could certainly take up that mantle, but will need the transfer pieces to gel and Brazile to come back healthy. Either way, this should be another typical Musselman Arkansas team, one with loads of energy playing at a lightning pace.

14. Texas Longhorns

Backcourt: The Longhorns landed one of the top prizes of the offseason when they convinced Oral Roberts transfer Max Abmas to come to Austin. Abmas is one of the best scorers anywhere in college basketball, a player who averaged nearly 22 points per contest with the Golden Eagles, and should be ready for the jump from the Summit League to the Big 12. He'll handle the primary scoring duties of the backcourt, with Tyrese Hunter handling more of the playmaking duties. Hunter is one of those players every college basketball coach would love to have on their team, an unselfish distributor who puts his teammates in positions to score. That doesn't mean he can't score, but that's not going to be the main ask for Rodney Terry and company this winter. Unfortunately, things are a bit thin behind these two, so expect heavy dosages of Abmas and Hunter, at least early on.

Frontcourt: Forward Dylan Disu was tremendous down the stretch for Texas last season, including a 28-point outburst against Penn State in the NCAA Tournament, and the Longhorns are hopeful he can evolve into a top option for this team. Staying healthy will be the key for Disu after he missed a major chunk of time last season. Joining him up front will be steady veteran Brock Cunningham, sophomore forward Dillon Mitchell, and another offseason prize in Kadin Shedrick. Shedrick could be the breakout player on this team, a guy who flashed plenty of potential with Virginia last season but should do even more damage in a better Texas offense. 

Bottom Line: Rodney Terry did a superb job taking over a brutal situation when Chris Beard was suspended, and subsequently fired, as head coach. Not only did he stabilize the team, he delivered an Elite Eight appearance, and come frustratingly close to a Final Four. Now, what does he do as the full-time head man? Landing Abmas and Shedrick was a great place to start, but the Longhorns will also need the holdovers to continue their progress. If that happens, Texas has the pieces to seriously challenge Kansas and Houston atop the Big 12 power structure. 

15. Tennessee Volunteers

Backcourt: Crafty lead guard Santiago Vescovi is the type of steady veteran every coach covets, and he should play a crucial role on Tennessee in 2023-24. He'll have more help around him this year in the form of newcomers Dalton Knecht, coming from Northern Colorado, and Jordan Gainey from South Carolina-Upstate. But, the real X-factor could be Zakai Zeigler, who tore his ACL prior to the NCAA Tournament last spring. It's still unclear exactly when the veteran guard could be cleared to return to action; being prepared for the season opener seems ambitious, but if the Volunteers can get him back for SEC play, they could have a strong chance to contend for a conference title.

Frontcourt: The big name returnee up front is wing Josiah Jordan-James, a 6'7" senior who can play and defend multiple spots. Staying healthy will be just as important for Jordan-James as it is for Zeigler, as the forward missed significant time last year with ankle and leg injuries. Alongside Jordan-James will be junior Jonas Aidoo, who gives the team size and rebounding prowess up front. Unfortunately, it's very thin beyond those two, meaning Tennessee could be leaning on youngsters to play heavy minutes right away.

Bottom Line: Few programs in the SEC are more consistent than Rick Barnes' Volunteers, and the team finally overcome some of their March demons this past spring. That could provide the momentum they need to take a run at the league title, especially without a clear favorite in the conference. But with Zeigler's health still up in the air right now, No. 15 seems like a fair spot to place them.

16. USC Trojans

Backcourt: Andy Enfield may have the best backcourt duo in the nation this season in the form of Boogie Ellis and true freshman Isaiah Collier. After beginning his career at Memphis, Ellis has gotten better each of the last two seasons in Southern California and looked in complete control last year, notching 17.7 points per game. He has a chance to vie for Pac-12 Player of the Year honors, but Collier should help take some of the attention away from the veteran guard. One of the top recruits in the Class of 2023, Collier is expected to bring immediate scoring punch to the lineup and likely end up as a lottery selection next spring. Also coming in is another highly sought after guard, none other than Bronny James, although his status for 2023-24 is in flux following a scary offseason cardiac incident. If he is able to come in and provide minutes off the bench, the Trojans get a high-energy playmaker that excels on both ends.

Frontcourt: Amazingly, Bronny is not the only former five-star prospect on USC's roster to deal with an unnerving heart incident, as Vincent Iwuchukwu suffered cardiac arrest last summer during a team workout. Fortunately Iwuchukwu appears to have worked his way back and ended up being a contributor to the team last season, and the Trojans are hoping for even more from the skilled seven-footer this winter. He'll have plenty of help in the frontcourt, including returnees Kobe Johnson and Joshua Morgan, plus Washington State transfer D.J. Rodman. Morgan led the Pac-12 in blocks last year and is growing his offensive repertoire, while Johnson is one of the best perimeter defenders anywhere in the country. If Rodman can come in and provide three-point shooting, this lineup becomes even stronger.

Bottom Line: All eyes will be focused on Bronny James this winter, but that discounts the fact that this may be the most complete team Enfield has ever had at USC. Ellis will lead an explosive offense and with Morgan and Johnson, the Trojans will be a pain to go up against each and every night. If the young pieces can grow up quick, it wouldn't be surprising at all if this program ends their time in the Pac-12 with a conference title.

17. San Diego State Aztecs

Backcourt: Matt Bradley may be gone, but there's no shortage of experience leading the San Diego State backcourt. Lamont Butler and Darrion Trammell were both key cogs on the National Runner-Up last spring and should both be expected to do even more this season. Butler in particular became a campus legend for his performance down the stretch, and should be eager to keep that rhythm going into a fresh season. Newcomer Reese Dixon-Waters also brings a nice mix of experience, winning Pac-12 Sixth Man of the Year honors a year ago while at USC. He could be even more impactful if he can rediscover a shooting stroke that seemed to disappear on him at multiple spots in 2022-23, resulting in worse percentages at both the stripe and from three-point territory.

Frontcourt: There's a key piece missing in the Aztec frontcourt, too, as Nathan Mensah moves on after a long and productive career with the program. San Diego State will be hard-pressed to find a player quite like Mensah up front, a guy who did all the little things and brought real grit to their post play, but the cupboard is far from bare. Wing Micah Parrish will likely see his role expand, as will senior forward Jaedon LeDee. LeDee has shown steady progress throughout his Aztec career, but this feels like a real opportunity to separate himself from the pack offensively. Things are a bit thin beyond them, at least in terms of proven experience, but names like Seattle transfer Cade Alger could step up and find ways to contribute.

Bottom Line: After a remarkable run to the National Championship Game last spring, the San Diego State Aztecs are looking for an encore. Things will be a bit tougher without Bradley and Mensah, but they have a solid core in place and fixed holes through the transfer portal. The Mountain West could be tough again, but Brian Dutcher has built on Steve Fisher's legacy here and established a consistent, reliable winner.

18. Baylor Bears

Backcourt: There is turnover in the Baylor backcourt, as the Bears saw L.J. Cryer hit the portal and Keyonte George and Adam Flagler take their talents to the pros. Scott Drew is hopeful a mishmash of newcomers will gel quickly, including RayJ Dennis from Toledo and Jayden Nunn from VCU. Dennis will be expected to handle most of the scoring load after winning MAC Player of the Year honors a season ago, while Nunn is hoping to build on two solid seasons with the Rams. Also in the backcourt mix is Langston Love, who will play a much larger role as a key returnee to the roster. It's been a frustrating few years for Love in Waco due to a torn ACL in 2021-22 and eye injury that cost him down the stretch last year, but the talent is there if he can stay on the court. After coming off the bench and averaging just under 17 minutes per game in 2023-24, he could be in line for a starting role.

Frontcourt: The return of energetic big man Jonathan Tchamwa-Tchatchoa is huge news for the Bears. A scary knee injury suffered late in the 2021-22 campaign ended up costing Tchamwa-Tchathcoa more than half of last season, and Baylor certainly missed his presence on the interior. He's not a guy who is going to go out and score 20 points a night, but Tchamwa-Tchatchoa is a relentless rim runner whose presence on both ends makes Baylor a much tougher foe every night he's on the court. He'll have a new frontcourt mate in the form of freshman Yves Missi, a five-star prospect who reclassified into the Class of 2023 and has been receiving significant hype. The 6'10" big may need time to adjust to the college game, but could be one of the best in the Big 12 if he gets things rolling. Add in rock-solid forward Jalen Bridges, who has proven to be a capable scorer, the Bears have more than enough in their frontcourt to hang with the elites of the conference.

Bottom Line: Scott Drew has followed up Baylor's National Title with a pair of short NCAA Tournament trips, but this year's team could change that. There will be growing pains as all the pieces acclimate, but this is one of the most talented teams anywhere in the nation and as long as the injury bug stays away, a trip to at least the second weekend of March will be in the cards.

19. Arizona Wildcats

Backcourt: The Caleb Love saga concluded with the former Tar Heel guard announcing his commitment to Arizona, gifting Tommy Lloyd an explosive scorer to run the offense. Love can be maddening at times, but there's little denying his impact when he is on. That may mean this Arizona team is a bit more volatile than past editions, but also elevates the ceiling for them after last season's stunning NCAA Tournament defeat. Love wasn't the only transfer that Lloyd snatched from the portal, as Jaden Bradley comes over from Alabama, pairing with holdover Pelle Larsson. Bradley has the talent to make an immediate impact, while Larsson will play an important role by providing Love space to work with his sharpshooting ability.

Frontcourt: Seven-footer Oumar Ballo followed Lloyd from Gonzaga to Tucson and has evolved into one of college basketball's most feared post players. His touch around the rim has grown tremendously, giving the big man a capable offensive game to go along with his rebounding and shot-blocking prowess. He'll play a particularly large role with Arizona still settling in around him, although San Diego State transfer Keshad Johnson provides playmaking punch. The senior took more of a backseat role in the Aztecs' National Runner-Up run last spring, but he's proven to be a solid contributor who can play multiple spots.

Bottom Line: This ranking could end up being far too low, as Lloyd is able to pair one of the Pac-12's most dominant bigs with an explosive lead guard in Caleb Love. But, Love's streakiness makes it difficult for me to slot them much higher, even in a league that appears fairly wide open. The pieces are in place for it to be a special season in Arizona's Pac-12 swan song, but only if the transfers are as good as advertised.

20. Wisconsin Badgers

Backcourt: Wisconsin will run back essentially the same backcourt that guided them throughout 2023-24, with Chucky Hepburn at point, and Max Klesmit and Conner Essegian playing off-ball. It feels like a prove-it year for Hepburn, who improved statistically a season ago but but also suffered through bouts of rough play. Klesmit provides nice balance alongside him, while Essegian could be a breakout star after a surprisingly effective freshman campaign. His three-point shooting ability gives opposing teams something to fear from the Badger offense, which was a rarity in 2022-23.

Frontcourt: The return of fifth-year forward Tyler Wahl is huge news for the Badgers, giving them not only a proven scoring threat, but a player who gives it his all every single night. Wahl has progressed steadily throughout his time in Madison and could be an All-Big Ten candidate in his final year. Of course, that relies on him staying healthy, which was a problem last winter. He'll be joined by a familiar face up front in Steven Crowl, a solid if rather unexciting frontcourt piece. Crowl saw major improvement over the last two seasons and I'm curious to see if there's another level he can reach this year. He's not likely to be a Frank Kaminsky or Ethan Happ-level force in the paint, but will play a key role against the impressive list of bigs the Big Ten has to offer.

Bottom Line: It was a frustrating season in Madison last winter as Badger fans watched one of the worst offenses in the country, but the 2023-24 shows signs of promise. All five starters return and Greg Gard appears to have patched some holes through the portal and on the high school recruiting trail. If Wahl can stay healthy and we see continued progress from the others, Wisconsin could realistically challenge for the upper echelon of the Big Ten and a trip to the NCAA Tournament's second weekend.

Just Missed the Cut

North Carolina Tar Heels

Texas A&M Aggies

Saint Mary's Gaels

Boise State Broncos

New Mexico Lobos