2024 Sweet 16 Picks (East, West Regions)

Tristen Newton, UConn

East Region

(5) San Diego State Aztecs vs. (1) UConn Huskies

Kicking off Sweet 16 action will be a rematch of last year's National Championship Game, with Brian Dutcher and the San Diego State Aztecs looking to avenge their loss at the hands of the Huskies last spring. The Aztecs will be the clear underdog once more, facing off against a UConn team on an unstoppable quest to repeat, but don't count out this San Diego State team. They knocked the top overall seed out of the event last year in Alabama, and have the type of roster to give the Huskies difficulties after rolling through the first two rounds.

With how effortless UConn's offense looks each and every contest, it may be easy to forget that this team lost several key contributors from last year's National Title run, including Adama Sanogo and Jordan Hawkins. Dan Hurley has done a masterful job integrating new pieces into the fold, while holdovers like Donovan Clingan and Tristan Newton have had no issues taking up the leadership mantle. Newton may not be the big shot-maker Hawkins was, but the veteran has run the offense with immense precision and makes this entire group go. He's joined by Clingan down low, do-it-all Alex Karaban, former Rutgers transfer Cam Spencer, and freshman phenom Stephon Castle, quite an imposing front-line. Each bring their own strengths, and they've all grown throughout the season. Take Spencer, for example - he was considered merely a sharpshooter coming over from the Big Ten, but he's rounded out his game and become a much larger factor as a passer and defender. The entire unit gives UConn not only an abundance of weapons to throw at an opponent, the most remarkable part of it all is how well they all work together. This doesn't look like a typical college team, especially one that has experienced notable turnover over the last year. No, the fluidity of this offense and the limited wasted movement looks like a professional team that has been playing together for years.

Devising a game-plan to try and contain that offense is quite the tall order for the Aztecs, but with a defense that allowed just over 66 points per game on the year, they're going to try their best. The Aztecs do bring a few advantages to the table defensively that should make a difference. For one, they're an exceptional team on-ball and do an incredible job getting their hands in passing lanes. Even if they don't get a steal, San Diego State disrupts the opponent's rhythm and makes them work for every shot attempt. Just as important, they have ample versatility and have really embraced position-less basketball, allowing them to mix and match as needed. But, if there is one glaring weakness on the defensive end, it's down low, where they don't have the size they had a season ago. Jaedon LaDee has had a breakout season, but he's not your traditional big man, and Elijah Saunders and Jay Pal are more of a platoon than a true reliable defensive anchor. That lack of size hasn't hurt them just yet, but against Karaban and Clingan? This just isn't a great matchup for the Aztecs down there, and you wonder just how many easy baskets the Huskies are going to get, particularly if they are able to run the floor. San Diego State has a better offense than what we saw last season, but they aren't prepared to get into a shootout here. For as good as LeDee, Micah Parrish, and Lamont Butler are, they are not going to be able to match UConn's top trio for the full 40 minutes.

The Huskies have followed up their regular season dominance by throttling Stetson and Northwestern, quite the reminder that this is still the team to beat as we hit the second weekend. San Diego State is good enough to give them difficulties, especially with a sound and consistent defense that will look to make this is a slow-paced slugfest. But, the Huskies just have too much they are able to throw at you, and too many players who can make the big shot. I suspect this will be close until about the midway point of the second half, when the edge in talent shines in UConn's favor.

UConn by twelve

(3) Illinois Fighting Illini vs. (2) Iowa State Cyclones

Seeing top teams with differing strengths battling it out on the big stage is one of my favorite aspects of the NCAA Tournament, and we get just that when Illinois and Iowa State collide in the TD Garden on Thursday. The Illini will rely on their explosive offense, per usual, fresh off a 89-point effort over Duquesne. For Iowa State, a smothering defense has been their fuel all season long, and they should relish the opportunity to show what they can do against Illinois. Only one can come away as the victor, with a potential date with the defending National Champions waiting. 

Illinois took a half to get going against Morehead State, but has followed it up with a dominant stretch over the last 100 minutes of basketball, punctuated by a blowout win over Duquesne. The two wins have secured Brad Underwood his first trip to the second weekend since taking over at Illinois, but the Illini certainly are not satisfied. This is a team looking to prove themselves on the big stage, and Iowa State presents their first real challenge of the event so far. Despite the increase in competition, I don't envision the Illini changing their game-plan very much - Terrence Shannon Jr. will continue to be the focal point, capturing the attention of the defense and opening up everything for this offense. Shannon is in the midst of a truly incredible run, scoring 25 points or more in each of his last six games, including 26 and 30 pieces to kick off the NCAA Tournament. It will be interesting to see how the Cyclones look to bottle him up - this is a tremendous defensive team on-the-ball that makes opponents work for every opportunity at the rim. Shannon has leaned on his ability to get downhill and force contact to get opportunities at the line, but he may need to focus on his three-point shot to open up space the way ISU collapses the paint. That also means that Marcus Domask will have to be front-and-center, and Illinois is at their best when the former Southern Illinois transfer is involved. Domask has shown an ability to impact the game in more ways than one this March, with a triple-double to open up the Tournament, but it's his sharpshooting ability that will test the Cyclones the most. Yet for all of that, I still believe the X-factor for Illinois will come from their frontcourt pieces, namely the trio of Coleman Hawkins, Quincy Guerrier, and Dain Dainja. In games like this, where the defense is looking to take you out of your game, it's the little things in the paint that can make all the difference. Easy points around the basket, a key offensive rebound or two, what this group does the other way on the defensive end - all of those things are going to have an outsized impact on the Illini's chances to move on to the next round.

It's not always the prettiest brand of basketball, but there's little denying how effective T.J. Otzelberger's system has been in Ames over the last several seasons. The Cyclones are in the midst of their third consecutive NCAA Tournament appearance under Otzelberger, and their second Sweet 16 in that span. But much like the Illini, don't expect the Cyclones to be satisfied by just getting to this stage - this is a team with legitimate Final Four aspirations. But in order to get there, they'll need a strong showing from a deep and balanced backcourt. Tamin Lipsey is the one that really makes things go for the Cyclones, but Keshon Gilbert and Curtis Jones are not only going to be leaned on offensively, their work against Shannon and Domask the other way is going to be crucial. The same can be said up front, where Robert Jones and freshman sensation Milan Momcilovic will have their work cut out for them on both ends against the pieces the Illini can throw at you. Jones is your prototypical back-to-the-basket big, but I'm curious to see how Momcilovic operates in what will be the most important game of his young career. He's more of a wing than a true forward, and his big-time shot-making has been a crucial element of Iowa State's success throughout the 2023-24 campaign. If I'm Illinois, this is a guy I attack when he's on the defensive end - even though Momcilovic has impressed as a defender, make him work and get him off-balance, hurting what he can do the other way. At times, he's been one of the few Cyclones that can make their own offense, and limiting his production should be paramount.

Illinois is my National Title pick because I think they have a roster that can adjust to meet the strengths and weaknesses of their opponent, and because the weapons they can throw at you over a full 40 minutes can be overwhelming. Those two factors alone lead me to stick with the Illini, but this is going to be quite the test for Underwood and company. Iowa State is such a well-coached basketball team, they'll be a tough out for anyone, but I'm just not sure they have the offensive punch the other way to make all the difference.

Illinois by five

West Region

(6) Clemson Tigers vs. (2) Arizona Wildcats

As one of just two teams higher than a five seed still remaining in the Big Dance, Clemson could be a "Cinderella" story as they gear up for a Sweet 16 date against Arizona. But achieving that moniker will require them to play even better than they did against both New Mexico and Baylor, as the Wildcats are zeroed in on the Final Four after two short-lived NCAA Tournament appearances under Tommy Lloyd.

The second-seeded Wildcats are led by a familiar face in Caleb Love, whose play in the 2022 NCAA Tournament will forever earn him a spot in March Madness lore. Love is still as streaky as they come, but he's seemed to dial things down a bit in Lloyd's offense, playing in control and improving his shot selection. The result has been his best collegiate season yet, while spearheading an Arizona offense that is ranked fourth nationally in points per contest. Love is the big name, but he's flanked by an impressive collection of guards, including Pelle Larsson and Kylan Boswell, while Oumar Ballo is the force underneath that every opponent has to contend with. Larsson's shooting opens up everything on the floor for Arizona, but I'm curious to see how Boswell responds after a quiet showing in the second round win over Dayton, one game after dropping 20 against Long Beach State. Look for fellow guards K.J. Lewis and Jaden Bradley to also get involved, giving the Wildcats an unlimited group of athletic playmakers that will be different than anything Clemson has seen on the season.

There were plenty of doubters picking against the Tigers in the first round, but Brad Brownell's club has proved them wrong with a pair of impressive victories. Clemson looked like by far and away the better team in both wins against New Mexico and Baylor, and will be searching for the program's first Elite Eight berth in over four decades. To get there, they need forward P.J. Hall, the star of the show, to continue to be the difference-maker he's been all season long. Hall is exceptionally skilled, a 6'10" center who handles the ball and shoots the rock like a point guard, but he's been limited by foul trouble in their first two games. It's clear teams have recognized an opportunity to attack Hall on the defensive end, and he's also picked up a few frustrating offensive fouls. That will have to be a point of emphasis for the senior if the Tigers are to prevail. But on the plus side, it has allowed other Clemson players to shine through, notably junior forward Ian Schieffelin. Schieffelin is the type of player that every coach loves to have - he's worked hard to improve each year he's been on campus and is a relentless competitor, working hard on the glass and making the most of his opportunities offensively. Combined with Hall, the Tigers have two skilled forwards they can throw at Arizona, which could be a change-of-pace from what the Wildcats have typically seen in the Pac-12. In the backcourt there's steady veteran Joe Girard, who has plenty of NCAA Tournament experience going back to his time at Syracuse. It will be quite the contrast seeing Girard match up with Love, as the two have just about polar opposite games. However, even if he may not be as flashy as Love, Girard's impact on the game goes well beyond the stat sheet, and I think he'll relish this opportunity against a former ACC foe.

Going into the NCAA Tournament, I was not very high on the Tigers, but they've made believers out of me over their first two games and they actually match up nicely with Arizona. I still lean Wildcats here because they have so much firepower, but this game has the makings of a tight one. If the Tigers can do enough offensively, it wouldn't shock me if they pull the upset.

Arizona by six

(4) Alabama Crimson Tide vs. (1) North Carolina Tar Heels

Alabama survived a barn-burner against Grand Canyon to advance to the Sweet 16 and their reward? A date with the top seed in the West Region, the North Carolina Tar Heels, who overcame an early deficit against Michigan State and won handily, 85-69. To say that this will be a star-studded affair is an understatement - with Mark Sears, R.J. Davis, and Armando Bacot, there's plenty of reason to tune in Thursday night.

The Tar Heels showed a lot of perseverance over the weekend by overcoming the Spartans in the second round. Even as a favorite, UNC had to deal with a Michigan State team that seems to hit another gear this time of year, but a dominant defensive showing carried the No. 1 seed to victory. That defense will be crucial once again as the Tar Heels gear up for a loaded Tide offense, but just as important will be the carry over from the four veterans in the starting lineup. Davis, Bacot, and the two former transfers, Harrison Ingram and Cormac Ryan, all scored in double-digits and hit timely shots to spring the hard-fought victory. That quartet has been impressive all season long and each bring their own strengths to the table - Davis and Bacot are the stars, but Ingram and Ryan have been key additions for Hubert Davis and this coaching staff, opening the floor with their shooting and playing important minutes on both end. Add in the high-energy pieces, notably Elliott Cadeau and Jae'Lyn Withers, this is a North Carolina team with a lot of varying strengths who should have the legs they need to survive a likely high-scoring affair. We know Alabama is going to run, which will be an adjustment after the slower, prodding pace of Michigan State, but the Heels have had a week to prepare - I suspect the veterans and Hubert Davis will have them properly prepared.

Mark Sears was already one of the best guards in the SEC heading into the 2023-24 campaign, but the former Ohio transfer has turned it up a notch this season. Not only is he averaging over 21.5 points per game, he's shooting over 50% from the field, 43% from three-point territory, and stuffs the stat sheet full with over four boards and four assists per. His play in the NCAA Tournament so far has been a reminder of just how much of a difference-maker he is, with efforts of 26 and 30 points, along with key plays on the defensive end. Needless to say, he will be the primary focus for the UNC defense heading into this one, and I'll be curious to see how they choose to defend him. He's the type of offensive player that seems to respond and is fueled by on-ball pressure, particularly with how well he sees the floor and keeps his teammates involved. Perhaps the Heels choose to put a larger defender on him than Cadeau and Davis to see if that makes an impact, but the strategy here will be fun to watch. However, he's not thee only Tide player that can hurt you, far from it with this offense. Aaron Estrada has been Robin to Sears' Batman on the year and has played well in the NCAA Tournament so far, while Grant Nelson has given the Tide the spark they need in the frontcourt. The matchups here are also going to be fascinating to watch - do Bacot and Nelson defend each other, or will that fall to senior big Nick Pringle? The Tide haven't seen a big man with the skills of Bacot yet in this Tournament, and there really isn't a complete comparison inside the SEC. I firmly expect them to speed things up to try and diminish his impact, but this roster doesn't match up super favorably with the long-time Tar Heel big.

Two offenses that average over 81 points per contest and have game-changing star power? Needless to say, it should be a high-scoring, fun watch to wrap up the night in Los Angeles. I picked against Alabama in the first round and ended up looking foolish when they rolled past Charleston, but little has changed in my overall view of the West Region. UNC is far from perfect, but Hubert Davis has done an excellent job developing a well-rounded roster that is built for this moment - with their experience giving them a clear edge, I'm still riding with the top seed.

North Carolina by nine

2024 Bracket Analysis: Midwest Region

Anton Watson, Gonzaga

The Top Seed: Purdue Boilermakers

The last time we saw a No. 1 seed fall to a 16 in the NCAA Tournament, the Virginia Cavaliers stormed back to win a National Title the year following in one of the greatest sports redemption stories of all-time. Can the Purdue Boilermakers repeat the script? Last season’s shocking loss to Farleigh Dickinson was the culmination of a string of disappointing March exits for the Boilermakers, a trend the program hopes will come to an end in 2024. It’s the same core in place that was upset last season, with the important addition of Lance Jones providing the Boilermakers an extra bit of experience in the backcourt. The presence of Jones and his importance shouldn’t be overlooked, but all eyes remain on Zach Edey, the overwhelming favorite to take home a second consecutive National Player of the Year. We’ve seen Edey put up gaudy numbers each of the last two years, but what he does this March will determine his legacy. Is he going to remembered as a player that choked on the sport’s biggest stage, or will a redemptive 2024 run be the grand finale he’s searching for?

Don’t Forget About: Gonzaga Bulldogs

The Gonzaga Bulldogs were my National Title pick a season ago, but even with a magical three to lift them over UCLA in the Sweet 16, they couldn’t overcome a UConn team on a mission in the Elite Eight. A year later, things feel different. The Bulldogs spent a big chunk of the 2023-24 campaign hovering near the bubble line and although a late-season push secured them a five seed, they still enter as an overlooked team on this year’s bracket. And to be fair, there’s no Drew Timme, Corey Kispert, or Jalen Suggs on this team. But, you should never count out Mark Few and the Bulldogs, and they feel like a team that can still inflict major damage in this region. Ryan Nembhard, who followed his brother to Spokane after beginning his career at Creighton, paces the offense with expert precision, while Anton Watson and Graham Ike up front are a load to handle. There aren’t as many shooters on this team, but Few has done an excellent job disguising their weaknesses and if their defense can maintain the intensity its displayed over the last few weeks, they may not need that shooting. McNeese State does offer a stiff challenge in the first round, and Will Wade’s team will be a popular upset pick, but I think the Bulldogs will be around for a while. In fact, I wouldn’t be shocked if they end up being the team that comes out of this region – I remain that high on this program.

The Cinderella Possibility: Samford Bulldogs

The 12 and 13 seeds in the Midwest are going to be popular picks this year, but I’m picking the Samford Bulldogs as the likely “Cinderella” in this region. The Southern Conference Champion won 29 games on the regular season, fueled by an offense that is going to run, run, run. In fact, with an average of 86 points per game, the Bulldogs have the nation's sixth best offense, one that shares the ball and plays about as fluid and smooth as you are going to find at this level. Their ability to run is aided by their depth - this is perhaps the deepest mid-major team in the country, one that can genuinely go 10-11 guys deep without much issue. They're going to look to use those fresh legs at every opportunity, and even better, their first round matchup is an ideal one. This is the weakest Kansas team we've seen in some time, potentially the weakest four seed in the bracket. To add insult to injury, quite literally, the Jayhawks are also expected to be without wing Kevin McCullar for the entirety of the NCAA Tournament, robbing them of a key veteran piece who has ample experience in March. Bill Self has typically run short benches with the Jayhawks, but this team in particular feels remarkably thin - keeping up with Samford for a full 40 minutes seems like a tall order. And if the Bulldogs can get past Kansas, you never know. McNeese State could certainly upset Gonzaga, but even if Gonzaga advances, Samford is a tough matchup for them. There's opportunity for this team to go on a run, but at the very least, I like their chances to win their first NCAA Tournament game in school history.

Buy Stock Now: Oregon Ducks

Bid-stealers were everywhere during conference tournaments, and in the final edition of the Pac-12 Tournament, the league saw its own in the Oregon Ducks. The Ducks weren't even sniffing the NCAA Tournament field, but ripped off four straight victories when it mattered most to gain entry as an 11-seed. They not only arrive with significant momentum, but history is on their side. In the last four NCAA Tournaments head coach Dana Altman has coached the Ducks in, they've advanced to the event's second weekend each time. That includes the run Oregon made as a 12-seed back in 2019, a situation much the same, with the Ducks winning the Pac-12 Tournament to gain an automatic bid to the Big Dance. That team was led by crafty guard Payton Pritchard, but this Oregon team is a bit different. It's been the big man, center N'Faly Dante, who has been unstoppable in recent weeks, punctuated by a 25-point effort over Colorado in the Pac-12 Championship Game. He's helped out by a pair of capable guards in Jermaine Coulsnard and Jackson Shelstad, whose importance may come more on the defensive side of things, at least in their opening game against South Carolina. The Gamecocks have an electric 1-2 punch in Meechie Johnson and Ta'Lon Cooper, two fearless playmakers who came to South Carolina from Big Ten country. If Oregon can find a way to contain them, the work Dante and company have done on the other end makes them a tough out. It could propel them to a second round matchup with Creighton, where a potential Dante battle with fellow big Ryan Kalkbrenner awaits, a true treat for anyone who still loves old-school, back-to-the-basket basketball.

Don't Touch this High Seed: Tennessee Volunteers

Rick Barnes' March struggles are well-documented at this point, but yet again, the Tennessee Volunteers enter the NCAA Tournament with a top seed next to their name and expectations on deck. The Volunteers did impress during the SEC schedule, no doubt, going 14-4 in an ultra-competitive league and claiming the regular season crown. But, losses in both their regular season finale and first SEC Tournament game left a sour taste right before the most important part of their season, and going back to the non-conference, this team really struggled against quality competition. A quality win against Illinois aside, Tennessee lost to Purdue, Kansas, and North Carolina all in a row. Sure, all three quality losses, but it just feels like a reminder of the frustrating place Volunteer basketball has been stuck in for awhile now - they're good enough to win plenty of games and earn a top seed but when it comes down to truly toppling the elites of the sport, they just haven't been at that level. Fortunately, do-it-all Dalton Knecht gives them a fighting chance any time they step on the court, but can he get any help out there? The Volunteer offense has a frustrating knack for disappearing for long stretches, and if history tells us anything, that's unlikely to change this March. Oh, and their first round matchup? It just happens to be the darlings of the 2022 NCAA Tournament, Saint Peter's. Now, I don't envision the Peacocks going on a run this time around, but crazier things have happened - they don't call it ''March Madness'' for no reason.

Picking the Midwest

First Round

1 Purdue Boilermakers over 16 Grambling -- No 16-seed surprise for the Boilermakers this time around, as Zach Edey and company pound the SWAC Champs. 

9 TCU Horned Frogs over 8 Utah State Aggies -- A true coin flip game here, but I'll roll with the battle-tested Horned Frogs and their collection of explosive guards.

5 Gonzaga Bulldogs over 12 McNeese State Cowboys -- Will Wade's Cowboys are going to be a popular upset pick, but I trust Mark Few in March, and the Bulldogs find a way to outlast McNeese.

13 Samford Bulldogs over 4 Kansas Jayhawks -- Perhaps Bill Self and the Jayhawks are going to make us look like fools for doubting them ahead of March. But, there's little reason to have confidence in this team right now, and Samford is a brutal matchup for them.

11 Oregon Ducks over 6 South Carolina Gamecocks -- Lamont Paris and South Carolina have been one of the coolest stories in college basketball, but I am all in on Oregon to keep on humming.

3 Creighton Bluejays over 14 Akron Zips -- Akron is a sneaky 14-seed who could give Creighton some troubles, but Baylor Scheierman and the Bluejays are just too much.

7 Texas Longhorns over 10 Colorado State Rams -- Texas has had a rollercoaster of a season, but Max Abmas and Tyrese Hunter are one of the best backcourts in America, and they should be enough to overcome the Rams. 

2 Tennessee Volunteers over 15 Saint Peter's Peacocks -- No Saint Peter's magic this year, unfortunately. Dalton Knecht is the difference-maker as Tennessee sets themselves up for a matchup with a fellow 'UT'.

Second Round

1 Purdue Boilermakers over 9 TCU Horned Frogs -- TCU simply does not have anyone that can counter Zach Edey in the post. I mean, does anybody?

5 Gonzaga Bulldogs over 13 Samford Bulldogs -- The battle of the Bulldogs should be a fun one between teams with opposing strengths. This is going to test Few's coaching chops, but I think he figures out the right strategy to succeed.

3 Creighton Bluejays over 11 Oregon Ducks -- I just about went with Oregon to move on in this one, but the Bluejays find a way to beat their old head coach, Dana Altman, and his Ducks. 

7 Texas Longhorns over 2 Tennessee Volunteers -- Another game featuring a head coach going up against his old school, as Rick Barnes looks for vengeance against the Longhorns. Unfortunately, I like Texas in the upset.

Sweet 16

5 Gonzaga Bulldogs over 1 Purdue Boilermakers -- I actually would love a Purdue redemption arc, I truly would. But it just feels like this season is going to end in disappointment, and there are multiple landmines in this region. I'm going to roll with the team I trust more in this spot, knowing this could finally be the year Matt Painter proves me wrong.

3 Creighton Bluejays over 7 Texas Longhorns -- Lots of fun guards to watch fly up and down the court in this one, but the difference is Ryan Kalkbrenner down low, who overpowers the Longhorns to fuel a Creighton win.

Elite Eight

5 Gonzaga Bulldogs over 3 Creighton Bluejays -- If I'm going to pick a team higher than a four seed to make the Final Four, it's going to be a program I trust and Gonzaga has earned that right. This Bulldog team has their warts, but they're playing great basketball down the stretch and still have a roster that can carry them deep. I think they find a way to come out of the Midwest unscathed.

2024 Bracket Analysis: South Region

Jamal Shead, Houston 

The Top Seed: Houston Cougars

Moving from the friendly confines of the American Athletic Conference to arguably the toughest league in college basketball? No problem for the Houston Cougars, who secured their second consecutive No. 1 seed after going 30-4 overall and 15-3 in the new-look Big 12. It's clear Kelvin Sampson has built a winning formula here - the Cougars are a physical, hard-nosed team that makes their opponents work for every inch on the hardwood, and they do just enough offensively to outlast whoever they face. It's not necessarily a beautiful brand of basketball, but it's hard to argue with the results, and Houston is going to be a tough out for anybody on this side of the bracket. It helps that guards Jamal Shead and L.J. Cryer have given them a different look offensively, offering more playmaking and shooting than they've had in recent years. Cryer in particular was quite the get for Sampson and staff - not only does he open up the floor with his three-point shot, the experience in the NCAA Tournament he gained at Baylor will be indispensable this March. Considering the other veteran-laden teams in this region, namely Marquette and Wisconsin, that type of experience could be the edge this team needs to get Sampson and company back to the Final Four after a two-year hiatus.

Welcome Back to the Dance: Nebraska Cornhuskers

Building a winning basketball at a football school is always a daunting proposition, so it's no surprise that it took Fred Hoiberg a half-decade to get things rolling in Lincoln. But after four years of struggles, the Cornhuskers proved themselves to be one of the best in the Big Ten, locking down their first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2014. It's an exceptionally fun Nebraska team, too - Keisei Tominaga is already a cult hero, and he has a chance to become a household name this March. The Japanese guard is one of the most fearless shooters you'll find anywhere in college basketball, and it wouldn't surprise to see him take over a game or two on the big stage. Add in swingman Brice Williams and steady forwards Rienk Mast and Juwan Gary, this is a balanced 'Husker offense that has fueled them to several major wins on the campaign. Texas A&M does offer a difficult matchup as a 9, as the Aggies are playing their best basketball of the season, but I don't think Nebraska came all this way to go one-and-done. I like them to overtake the Aggies, and if Tominaga can get hot, this is the type of team that could the top-seeded Cougars earlier than might be expected.

Don't Forget About: Duke Blue Devils

A disappointing loss to North Carolina in the regular season finale followed up by a loss in the quarterfinals of the ACC Tournament to NC State left Duke sitting on the four-line as they prepare for the 2024 NCAA Tournament. Despite the frustrating ending, this is a team with the ceiling of a Final Four contender - if they can string together more consistent basketball. For all the controversy surrounding Kyle Filipowski, the sophomore is one of the game's premier players, and head coach Jon Scheyer has surrounded him with capable playmakers, including Tyrese Proctor, Jeremy Roach, and Jared McCain. Yet, the same question remains that has haunted the Blue Devils all season long: can they figure out a way to close out games? Amazingly, despite eight losses, Duke did not lose a single game by double-digits, and their last three losses over the final month were by a combined 14 points. This is an exceptional basketball team for 35-36 minutes, it's those final few minutes that will make the difference come March. It makes Duke an unfamiliar wild card as they prep for their second NCAA Tournament under Scheyer. Whether they are upset by Vermont in the first round, or get hot and find themselves in Phoenix, just about nothing would surprise me from this team at the end of the day.

The Cinderella Possibility: NC State Wolfpack

A power program from the ACC may not fit the typical bill of a "Cinderella" but if there's one team seeded higher than ten I think could cause serious damage in the South Region, it's NC State, even more so than mid-major darlings James Madison and Vermont. Head coach Kevin Keatts looked like he was going to be entering the 2024-25 season on a hot seat, but instead ripped off a miraculous ACC Tournament run that culminated in the Wolfpack shocking in-state rival UNC in the Championship Game. It's certainly not the first time we've seen a power conference team get hot at the right time and find a way into the field, but it becomes amazing considering the circumstances. NC State finished the regular season sub-.500 in a mediocre ACC and took their lumps in the non-conference slate. Yet, at no point in their ACC Title run did it feel fluky, as they come out and looked like the superior team in each and every win. Clearly, it's a time that believes, and they have a great understanding of their identity. They'll pound the rock to the gigantic D.J. Burns underneath, but guards D.J. Horne, Jayden Taylor, and Casey Morsell can all open things up and make this offense quite imposing. Interestingly enough, it's a team with ample NCAA Tournament experience - Burns played in one at Winthrop, Horne at Arizona State, and Morsell at Virginia. I don't think they'll be intimidated by this stage in the slightest.

Buy Stock Now: Florida Gators

Not since Billy Donovan was on the sidelines in Gainesville have we seen a deep run from the Florida Gators, but I suspect that could change this year. Second-year head coach Todd Golden has revitalized the program, winning 24 games and taking them to the SEC Championship Game. He did so behind an explosive offense, one spearheaded by four elite guards: Walter Clayton Jr., Zyon Pullin, Will Richard, and Riley Kugel. That foursome has the Gators looking to play at a frenetic pace - they are going to look to run at every opportunity and get up as many shots as possible. Now, they'll still need to maintain a presence in the post to have a chance at a deep Tournament run, and those chances took a hit with the scary injury in the SEC Tournament to big man Micah Handlogten. As much as it hurts to Handlogten, a key rebounder and defender on the block, you do wonder if it's the type of moment that can galvanize this team and help them reach another gear this deep into the season. That may not have happened in the SEC Championship Game, but Handlogten will be in Indianapolis to cheer on his teammates, and this could be the beginning of a special March story. Florida should be favored against whoever wins the "First Four" matchup in the South, whether that ends up being Boise State or Colorado, but don't count out Florida's chances against Marquette, either. Tyler Kolek's status remains completely up-in-the-air as we enter March, and you do wonder how Shaka Smart's team is going to handle the tempo. Either way, that has a chance to be one of the best second round matchups on the docket this time around.

Picking the South

First Round

1 Houston Cougars over 16 Longwood Lancers -- Houston's not likely to be a team that's going to run up the score against a 16-seed, but it's also not the type of game Kelvin Sampson loses, either. They should move on to the second round without much drama here.

8 Nebraska Cornhuskers over 9 Texas A&M Aggies -- Buzz Williams and the Aggies are finally starting to look like the team that begin the year in the Top 25 preseason, but Nebraska is the better team, top-to-bottom.

5 Wisconsin Badgers over 12 James Madison Dukes -- Did Wisconsin turn a corner during the Big Ten Tournament? After a hideous February, the Badgers are playing superb basketball, and an experienced roster like this should keep on chugging.

4 Duke Blue Devils over 13 Vermont Catamounts -- I've picked Vermont in upset bids countless times over the years, and not once have they pulled it off. Frankly, this pick is more out of spite than anything else.

6 Texas Tech Red Raiders over 11 NC State Wolfpack -- While I may see NC State as a "Cinderella" possibility, Texas Tech is a strong six seed. They have a lot of experience on this roster and the brand of defense they play makes them an incredibly tough out.

3 Kentucky Wildcats over 14 Oakland Golden Grizzlies -- Greg Kampe finally delivered Oakland their long-awaited NCAA Tournament berth, but I suspect it will be a short stay. They simply don't have the offensive weapons to match Kentucky for 40 minutes.

7 Florida Gators over 10 Boise State Broncos (First Four winner) -- The coach's son, Max Rice, gives Boise State quite the weapon to work with, but Florida is just too much in this one.

2 Marquette Golden Eagles over 15 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers -- Even with Tyler Kolek's status uncertain, Marquette is too good of a basketball team for their season to finish at the hands of 15-seed Western Kentucky.

Second Round

1 Houston Cougars over 8 Nebraska Cornhuskers -- This could be a very good game, but the suffocating Cougars contain Keisei Tominaga and pound Nebraska on the glass.

4 Duke Blue Devils over 5 Wisconsin Badgers -- A rematch of the 2015 National Championship Game, with the end result the same. A.J. Storr gives Wisconsin a threat to lead their offensive effort, but the Blue Devils just have so many options.

3 Kentucky Wildcats over 6 Texas Tech Red Raiders -- This is the type of game that makes picking Kentucky this year so difficult. Is the offense going to show up against a well-coached Texas Tech team? I'll say yes, but this a tough matchup for them.

7 Florida Gators over 2 Marquette Golden Eagles -- Interesting tidbit: not since taking VCU to the Final Four in his first NCAA Tournament trip has Shaka Smart gotten to the event's second weekend. Unfortunately, I suspect that trend to continue, as the Gators overwhelm an undermanned Golden Eagles team.

Sweet 16

4 Duke Blue Devils over 1 Houston Cougars -- This is the type of game where Jon Scheyer can prove himself as a head coach. He has the talent advantage, but does he draw up a gameplan to overcome the pesky Cougars? I think he can, but Duke's late-game woes make this pick awfully risky.

3 Kentucky Wildcats over 7 Florida Gators -- What an SEC matchup in the Sweet 16, featuring six elite guards. Although, I suspect it's going to end up being the chess match down low that ends up deciding this contest, where the Wildcats hold the edge. 

Elite Eight

3 Kentucky Wildcats over 4 Duke Blue Devils -- Am I crazy? The last time I picked Kentucky to go to the Final Four was two years ago, when their loss to St. Peter's burned my bracket on the event's first night. This team inspires even less confidence, as about as inconsistent and streaky of a John Calipari-coached team as I can remember. And yet, with Rob Dillingham and Reed Sheppard leading the way, they have an incredibly high ceiling, and I'm not in love with the top two seeds in this region. Calipari is going to get another one, and this team might be the one to do it. 

2024 Bracket Analysis: West Region

R.J. Davis, North Carolina

The Top Seed: North Carolina Tar Heels

Few teams enter March as battle-tested as the North Carolina Tar Heels, who faced down a brutal non-conference schedule and outlasted the rest of the ACC to cement a No. 1 seed this year. In many ways, it feels a lot like the type of team we used to see Roy Williams trot out on a regular basis ahead of March. There's veteran pieces throughout the lineup, namely a guard who has gotten better each and every year and is searching for a grand finale to their career (R.J. Davis), plus a dominant low post presence who is a force on both ends (Armando Bacot). But, this year's Heels are different in many ways - for one, they've plugged holes in their roster with key veterans through the portal, including Cormac Ryan and Harrison Ingram, and also lean heavily on the energy of the young guys, led by Elliott Cadeau. Hubert Davis has done an excellent job building up this roster and keeping together the core, which he deserves plenty of credit for in this era of college basketball. And, the Heels did enough to earn top billing even when they took their lumps during the non-conference, including beating Duke in a regular season finale that likely bumped them up to the No. 1 seed line. The Selection Committee not only gifted them that No. 1 seed, they were also rewarded with arguably the weakest region on the bracket, with the most underwhelming set of top four seeds of any region. That doesn't mean UNC is going to have a cake-walk deep into the Tournament, but the ingredients are in place for a program that is no stranger to deep stays in the NCAA Tournament, including playing for a National Title two years ago.

The Storyline Team: Michigan State Spartans

It wouldn't be March without the Michigan State Spartans entering the Big Dance with significant momentum, poised to cause chaos with a higher seed next to their name than normal. It's a script we've seen countless times since Tom Izzo has taken over in East Lansing - the Spartans start with a high preseason rank, struggle mightily in the non-conference and early portion of the Big Ten schedule, before catching fire at the right time before March and going on a deep Tournament run. Although, to be fair, this year's Michigan State team doesn't fit the script perfectly - they still had their fair share of issues down the stretch and were subsequently bounced in the quarterfinals of the Big Ten Tournament by the Purdue Boilermakers. Even so, they're going to be a popular pick this time around and on paper, this is one of Izzo's best teams in recent years. Tyson Walker and A.J. Hoggard are a superb 1-2 punch out of the backcourt, Jaden Adkins is a killer from three-point territory, and up front, Malik Hall and Maddy Sissoko give opposing teams plenty to worry about. But, even with all that said, I'd exercise a bit of caution if you have the Spartans going deep this time around. As good as the team looks on paper, they haven't shown up in reality consistently enough to make me a believer, and the offense has a frustrating knack to disappear for long stretches of time. Don't discredit their first-round matchup, either - Mississippi State is going to give them a battle in Charlotte on Thursday. In short, storylines are great, and the history backs up Izzo and the Spartans - but just because something has happened in the past doesn't mean it will play out in practice this March.

The Cinderella Possibility: New Mexico Lobos

Even before they went on a tear to win the Mountain West Tournament, I was a firm believer in Richard Pitino's New Mexico Lobos. The Lobos have gone through their ups-and-downs all season in a league that ended up sending six teams to the NCAA Tournament, but they have a roster built to win in March and are playing their best basketball at the right time. You need guards to win in March, and New Mexico doesn't just have one they can throw at you, but an elite trio in Donovan Dent, Jaelen House, and Jamal Mashburn Jr., all of whom finished the season with averages in the double digits. Even better, all three appear to be fully healthy for one of the few times this season, namely Mashburn, who has been dealing with a nagging thumb injury most of the year. He dispelled any notion that was going to be an issue this March by having one of the best games of his season in the MW Championship, dropping 21 points on San Diego State in the 68-61 victory. Those three should power the Lobos, while forward J.T. Toppin and Nelly Junior Joseph work down low. Neither of the bigs are going to be leaned on the way these guards are, but give this team enough in the paint to ensure they won't be overpowered against bigger opponents, namely Clemson in the first round. All in all, for all my grievances against Pitino for many years as Minnesota head coach, he's done a superb job building the Lobos, and seems to have a roster that can finally deliver him his long-awaited March success. Another reason to believe? New Mexico faces the weakest six seed on the bracket in the first (Clemson) and if they win, they could face the weakest three seed (Baylor) - the path to the second weekend lines up perfectly for the Lobos.

Don't Touch this High Seed: Baylor Bears

There shouldn't be any denying that Scott Drew is one of the top coaches anywhere in college basketball today and he's done well to earn Baylor another top three seed in the Big Dance despite playing in the toughest conference in college basketball. Yet, I remain very wary of the Bears, despite what Drew and company have accomplished over the years. The offense is balanced enough and statistically has been strong all season, but has struggled to shoot the ball in some of their most important games of the season. Even so, the Bears have still had to win game after game by shootout because the defense has suffered some uncharacteristic lapses over the course of the 2023-24 campaign. There's no stopper like Davion Mitchell on this year's Baylor team - you can beat them off the dribble and get to your spots in a way we aren't used to seeing from Scott Drew-coached teams. Just as concerning, I'm not sure the Bears have the size up front to contend with the true elites in the field this year. True freshman Yves Missi has been impressive and played an important role for this team, but the blue-chipper is still prone to the typical freshman mistakes, and there's not a ton beyond him that inspires confidence. This team has really missed the presence of energetic big Jonathan Tchamwa-Tchatchoua, whose devastating knee injury last year has resulted in him playing sparingly over the course of this season. We haven't seen him play since early March against Texas Tech and there's no reason to believe he'll see any significant action in this NCAA Tournament, the type of absence that could have a larger impact than the average onlooker realizes. Add in the fact that Baylor has had two short-lived stays in March in the two years since their National Title, I'd suggest looking at other options in this region if you don't want to pick either of the top seeds, UNC and Arizona.

The Strangest Team in the Region: Long Beach State Beach

There's no sporting event quite like the NCAA Tournament, and every year it gives us strange nuggets that only add to the fascination and allure associated with it. This March, one of those strange nuggets comes courtesy of the Long Beach State Beach (yes, that's really their name) and head coach Dan Monson. Monson has been with Long Beach State since the late 2000s, building a consistent winner out west that went to the NCAA Tournament in 2012. But, the program had tailed off in recent years and it was clear the administration wanted to go elsewhere, with both sides announcing they would be parting ways at the conclusion of the season. But, Monson was given the opportunity to finish up the year and coach the team through the conference tournament and wouldn't you know it, they ended up going on a tear and winning the Big West in impressive fashion. Now, Monson is essentially coaching LBSU as a fired head coach, a strange scenario as they prepare for Arizona in the first round. The odds of the magic continuing into the NCAA Tournament are slim, but guards Marcus Tsohonis and Jadon Jones make them interesting, and we've seen Arizona upset as a two seed before - just last year, in fact. No matter what happens, this is one of those stories that reminds you what makes these few weeks in March and April so engrossing - you can never be sure what's going to take place, or what scenario is going to unfold. Sometimes, you just have to sit back and let it happen.

Picking the West

First Round

1 UNC Tar Heels over 16 Wagner Seahawks (First Four winner) -- We've seen teams based out of New Jersey and NYC create chaos in recent years (ahem, Saint Peter's), but I don't suspect that will be the case for Wagner here.

9 Michigan State Spartans over 8 Mississippi State Bulldogs -- Expect a physical contest between these two, which could come down to the final shot. I'll side with Michigan State because of their March history, but the Bulldogs are a tougher foe than most people may realize.

5 Saint Mary's Gaels over 12 Grand Canyon Antelopes -- Grand Canyon head coach Bryce Drew has created March magic in the past, but I don't see it happening here - the Gael guard play is simply too good, and overpowers the Antelopes.

13 Charleston Cougars over 4 Alabama Crimson Tide -- The Cougars were a popular upset pick last March, but were unable to finish the job. A year later than expected, I envision them pulling the upset over an awfully streaky Tide team.

11 New Mexico Lobos over 6 Clemson Tigers -- I contend that Clemson is the weakest 6-seed on the bracket, and the Lobos are flaming hot - I'm taking them to keep on rolling here.

3 Baylor Bears over 14 Colgate Raiders -- Colgate puts up points and plays at a frantic tempo, making them an intriguing upset possibility each and every year. I don't see it happening here, but this could be a fun one in Memphis.

10 Nevada Wolf Pack over 7 Dayton Flyers -- Neither Dayton nor Nevada ended the season on a high note, but the Flyers are a remarkably weak seven seed. They did not beat a single at-large team in the entire field this season.

2 Arizona Wildcats over 15 Long Beach State Beach -- No first-round shocker to a 15-seed this time around for Arizona, as Caleb Love and company over the Big West Champ.

Second Round

1 UNC Tar Heels over 9 Michigan State Spartans -- It doesn't get much better than two of the sport's top brands colliding in the second round. Tyson Walker and R.J. Davis should be a joy to watch, but the Spartans simply don't have an answer for Armando Bacot down low.

5 Saint Mary's Gaels over 13 Charleston Cougars -- Charleston hasn't lost a game since February 1st, but this is going to be a tough matchup for them. The Gaels do a superb job controlling tempo, and will have the Cougars off-balance from the opening tip.

11 New Mexico Lobos over 3 Baylor Bears -- Should be some fun guard play in this one, but the deciding factor for a New Mexico win? J.T. Toppin's work underneath, helping the Lobos spring the upset and advance to the second weekend.

2 Arizona Wildcats over 10 Nevada Wolf Pack -- Nevada is under-seeded as a ten, and lead guard Jarod Lucas is no stranger to March heroics. Yet, I just can't pull the trigger on the upset here, particularly with Tommy Lloyd's Wildcats extra motivated after last year's debacle.

Sweet 16

1 UNC Tar Heels over 5 Saint Mary's Gaels -- Much like the UNC-MSU matchup, this should be a fun matchup of skilled guards, but the difference remains the same: Bacot is too much to handle down low, especially if Cormac Ryan and company can help space out the defense with a couple timely threes.

2 Arizona Wildcats over 11 New Mexico Lobos -- I would say I'm lukewarm on the Wildcats entering the NCAA Tournament but the path is clear, and sometimes it just works out this way. They put a stop to New Mexico's run in the Sweet 16.

Elite Eight

1 UNC Tar Heels over 2 Arizona Wildcats -- As boring as it may be to pick the one seed over the two to win the region, I'm hedging my bets here. I expect the West Region to be the one that devolves into complete and utter chaos, so this is all about playing the odds.

West Region Champion: 1 North Carolina Tar Heels

2024 Bracket Analysis: East Region

Donovan Clingan, UConn

The Top Seed: UConn Huskies

Following one of the most dominant National Title runs in recent college basketball history, the 2023-24 campaign has been one heck of an encore by the UConn Huskies. They finished 31-3, took both the Big East regular season title and conference tournament title, and earned themselves the top overall seed heading into this year's NCAA Tournament. The roster looks slightly different from last year's group, although familiar faces like Tristen Newton, Donovan Clingan, and Alex Karaban earned valuable experience last spring, while filling holes with newcomers like Cam Spencer and Stephon Castle. Most importantly, the Huskies are led by arguably the top head coach in college basketball right now, Dan Hurley. The fiery head man proved himself with last year's run, but keeping this team focused all season long has arguably been a more impressive feat. Now, Hurley and the Huskies are facing down an incredibly ambitious goal: becoming the first program in a decade-and-half to repeat as National Champs. The road won't be easy in a difficult East Region, but this team has all the pieces in place to do it. I envision another lengthy stay this March and April for UConn, even with every other team in the bracket aiming to take down the defending champions.

The Storyline Team: Florida Atlantic Owls

Amazingly, there are three teams from the 2023 Final Four situated in the East Region, but the most intriguing has got to be the Florida Atlantic Owls. Their run last spring was one of the most shocking in recent memory, rising from a little-known program out of the C-USA to within a missed buzzer beater of playing for a National Title. As they moved to the American Athletic Conference this season, things have been different. No longer are the Owls a lovable underdog, but are now widely viewed as a team that can once again cause chaos at the top of the bracket, particularly with so many crucial pieces back from last year's group. It will be fascinating to see how the Owls and head man Dusty May handle the new-found pressure - they've gone through their ups-and-downs all season and didn't end things on a super positive note, losing in the AAC semifinals, but still came away with a surprisingly strong eight seed. When their guards get hot, they can beat just about anybody in the country, but it's going to be the play down low that determines just how long FAU sticks around this time around. Fortunately, Northwestern is more of a guard-oriented team themselves, and the two match up nicely, but UConn looks an entirely different animal in the second round if they do indeed get there. Even so, it will be fascinating to see what the Owls do in response to the heightened expectations, and storylines right themselves with UConn, FAU, and San Diego State all on the top left of the bracket.

Welcome Back to the Dance: Duquesne Dukes

How different was the college basketball landscape the last time the Duquesne Dukes were dancing? The slam dunk was just returning to the game after nearly a decade-long ban, the three-point line wouldn't be introduced to the college game for years, and Al McGuire's Marquette Warriors, not Golden Eagles, would end up as the eventual National Champion. Needless to say, it's amazing the Dukes are finally back in the NCAA Tournament after a thrilling run to win the Atlantic 10 Tournament. But, don't expect this team to be simply satisfied by gaining entry to the 68-team field - this team wants to stay for awhile. And, with a fun backcourt that features Dae Dae Grant and Jimmy Clark III, Duquesne could be a feisty 11-seed, with a chance to pull an upset over a BYU team that's been inconsistent all season long. Either way, we know one thing: LeBron James will be watching, as his former high school head coach Keith Dambrot, is head coach of the Dukes, earning a congratulations from King James himself on "X" over the weekend.  

Is this the Year?: Illinois Fighting Illini

Since taking over in Champaign, Brad Underwood has been a consistent winner, leading the Illini to five straight seasons of at least 20 wins, along with five straight trips to the Big Dance. Yet, his tenure has often been defined more by what he hasn't accomplished than what he has, with March upsets overshadowing so much of his success. But it feels like this 2023-24 team is different, with the pieces in place to have a long run this spring. There's the fearless scorer leading the way, Terrence Shannon Jr., a sharpshooter who can handle the offensive burden when needed in Marcus Domask, two versatile, two-way bigs in Coleman Hawkins and Quincy Guerrier, plus depth and experience throughout. The ingredients are here for this team to finally deliver both Underwood and Illinois in general the NCAA Tournament success that has eluded them for far too long, now it's just a matter of going out and getting the job done. And, I'd argue the path is the easiest it's ever been for the program under the tutelage of Underwood, at least early on. Morehead State is a decent 14-seed but certainly a flawed conference tournament champion, while the Illini's high-octane offense should blitz whoever they get in the BYU/Duquesne matchup next. Things get trickier after, with the possibilities of Iowa State and perhaps UConn lurking elsewhere in the region, but I have Illinois locked into their first trip to the Tournament's second weekend since they were national runner-up in 2004-05, and firmly believe even greater things could be in store than just that.

Welcome Back to the Dance: Washington State Cougars

It's been a tumultuous year off the court for the Washington State basketball program as the athletics department grapples with an uncertain future after the breakup of the Pac-12. However, the product on the hardwood has been fantastic, with head coach Kyle Smith bringing the Cougars back to the Big Dance for the first time since 2008. In fact, in the final year of the Pac-12, the conference is seeing it's longest NCAA Tournament drought snapped in the Cougars, a fitting conclusion for the league. But, much as the case with others snapping long NCAA Tournament droughts, Washington State is not going to be satisfied to simply get here, they want to win. Drake is an incredibly difficult team to start out with in the first round with one of the top players anywhere in the country in Tucker DeVries, the coach's soon, but the Cougars can counter with their own elite playmaker, guard Myles Rice. Although, Rice will need to get back on track after a frustrating performance in the Pac-12 semifinal loss to Colorado, where he finished with five turnovers. Perhaps that will provide an extra bit of motivation for him, and with versatile forward Isaac Jones, the Cougars should be an interesting watch in the bottom half of the East Region.

Picking the East

First Round

1 UConn Huskies over 16 Stetson Hatters -- Stetson is a great story, playing in the first NCAA Tournament at the Division I level, but it's likely to be short-lived as they face the buzzsaw that is the UConn Huskies.

8 Florida Atlantic Owls over 9 Northwestern Wildcats -- Great guard play should make this a fun one, but the Owls are deeper and more balanced than Northwestern, who will need heroics from Boo Buie.

5 San Diego State Aztecs over 12 UAB Blazers -- UAB went on a run to win the American Athletic in their first season in the conference, but I'm not convinced they'll be able to parlay that into NCAA Tournament sucess.

4 Auburn Tigers over 13 Yale Bulldogs -- Ivy League teams always make me wary this time of year, but Auburn is playing tremendous basketball as of late, and forward Johni Broome gives them an obvious edge. 

6 BYU Cougars over 11 Duquesne Dukes -- As awesome as it is that Duquesne got to the NCAA Tournament, they're a very weak 11-seed - BYU shouldn't have much troubles here.

3 Illinois Fighting Illini over 14 Morehead State Eagles -- Fresh off a Big Ten Tournament Championship Game in which they combined for 60 points, Terrence Shannon Jr. and Marcus Domask overwhelm the Eagles here.

10 Drake Bulldogs over 7 Washington State Cougars -- I picked Drake to upset Miami last year and subsequently looked like a fool as the 'Canes went on to the Final Four. Yet, I'm going back to the well and picking Tucker DeVries and the Bulldogs to get the job done this year.

2 Iowa State Cyclones over 15 South Dakota State Jackrabbits -- The Jackrabbits may be an NCAA Tournament regular, but this 2023-24 group isn't as strong as we've seen in the past - Iowa State should shut them down.

Second Round

1 UConn Huskies over 8 Florida Atlantic Owls -- Oh, how I wish this ended up being the Championship Game last spring, but I think the result would have been the same: UConn winning.

4 Auburn Tigers over 5 San Diego State Aztecs -- San Diego State is going to do their best to speed up and disrupt K.D. Johnson and the rest of Auburn's guards, but I think the Tigers end up being too much in this one.

3 Illinois Fighting Illini over 6 BYU Cougars -- You can never be too sure what you're getting out of BYU's guards on a given night but even if they get hot, the Cougars don't have enough down low to counter the Illini.

2 Iowa State Cyclones over 10 Drake Bulldogs -- An inter-Iowa battle in the second round! This should be a hard-fought, physical contest, but the stifling Cyclone defense helps them find a way to move on to the second weekend.

Sweet 16

1 UConn Huskies over 4 Auburn Tigers -- Bruce Pearl has built a consistent winner at Auburn, but the Tigers just aren't at the level of UConn right now - the Huskies should roll.

3 Illinois Fighting Illini over 2 Iowa State Cyclones -- This one is so painful for me to pick - I love both of these teams and would likely have both in the Final Four if I could. I'll roll with the Illini, with the hope that great offense beats great defense.

Elite Eight

3 Illinois Fighting Illini over 1 UConn Huskies -- As impressive as UConn has been all season long, NCAA Tournament history speaks for itself- repeating is just so incredibly difficult. In that spirit, I think the Illini get a massive win here and deliver Brad Underwood his first Final Four appearance.

East Region Champion: 3 Illinois Fighting Illini

2024 Big Ten Tournament Prediction

Zach Edey, Purdue

First Round

13 Rutgers Scarlet Knights over

12 Maryland Terrapins

The Pick: It's been a frustrating winter for both of these East Coast programs, but as they look ahead to 2024-25, a win or two in the Big Ten Tournament could be the springboard they need. Rutgers feels like the safer pick for me, even away from Piscataway. Although they haven't been able to climb out of the bottom of the league standings, the Scarlet Knights have seemed to find something over the last month-and-half, and their defense smothers a Terrapin offense that has been nonexistent beyond Jahmir Young.

11 Penn State Nittany Lions over

14 Michigan Wolverines

The Pick: Could this be Juwan Howard's final game as Michigan head coach? I'm still under the impression of the one-time "Fab Five" legend gets at least one more year at the helm, but there's little reason to believe the Wolverines are going to find their groove after a long regular season. Penn State's a strong 11-seed, and they should move on to at least the Thursday set of games.

Second Round

8 Michigan State Spartans over

9 Minnesota Golden Gophers

The Pick: No surprises, the 8-9 matchup feels like a coin flip. A loss to Indiana in their final regular season game wasn't a super encouraging way to head into the postseason for Michigan State, but the program still owns Minnesota traditionally, and the Gophers have cooled as of late. More importantly, how could I willingly pick against Tom Izzo in the month of March?

13 Rutgers Scarlet Knights over 

5 Wisconsin Badgers

The Pick: It seems like ages ago that Wisconsin was 5-0 in the Big Ten and in prime position to take a run at the league title. The last two months have not been kind to the Badgers, and this isn't a great matchup for them - the two split the season series, which included a 22-point Rutgers victory in mid-February.

7 Iowa Hawkeyes over

10 Ohio State Buckeyes

The Pick: Since firing Chris Holtmann, Ohio State has been a on tear, winning five of six under interim head man Jake Diebler. Can they continue the magic in Minneapolis? It will be a tough matchup for them getting an Iowa team firmly on the bubble, a program that always seems to find another gear when it comes to Big Ten Tournament time.

11 Penn State Nittany Lions over

6 Indiana Hoosiers

The Pick: Credit where credit is due, Indiana could have mailed in the final stretch of the season when it became clear their NCAA Tournament hopes were shot, but they've remained playing hard under Mike Woodson. With that being said, I like the Nittany Lions to steal a win - although the Hoosiers retain an edge down low, Penn State's guards can propel them to victory.

Quarterfinals

1 Purdue Boilermakers over 

8 Michigan State Spartans

The Pick: All eyes will be on Purdue this March to see how they recover from last year's shocking defeat at the hands of Fairleigh Dickinson, but the league tournament provides a great tune-up opportunity. They're the better team top-to-bottom against Michigan State, coming out on top in a hard-fought game during their lone regular season contest.

4 Northwestern Wildcats over 

13 Rutgers Scarlet Knights

The Pick: No "Cinderella" run from Rutgers, at least not this season. Boo Buie is not going to bow out in the first game after a double-bye in his final conference tournament, and he should help carry the Wildcats to the finish line here.

2 Illinois Fighting Illini over

7 Iowa Hawkeyes

The Pick: The way these two programs play, expect the scoreboard operators to be busy Thursday night. Neither team is going to slow things down, but the Illini are in better position to outlast the Hawkeyes. They just have so many different ways to beat you and with a deeper roster, they should have fresher legs when it matters most.

3 Nebraska Cornhuskers over 

11 Penn State Nittany Lions

The Pick: It's still remarkable to see Nebraska as the three seed in the conference and a recipient of the double-bye, but I don't think anybody around the program is satisfied just yet. They should be ready to go, and considering that they aren't set to play their third game in as many days (like Penn State in this scenario), they're the smarter selection.

Semifinals

1 Purdue Boilermakers over

4 Northwestern Wildcats

The Pick: The last time these two met, Purdue overcame Northwestern in an overtime thriller, and this should be another hard-fought contest as both teams vie for seeding in the NCAA Tournament. The Wildcats should have plenty in the tank to give the Boilermakers fits, but they simply don't have an effective counter to Zach Edey down low.

2 Illinois Fighting Illini over 

3 Nebraska Cornhuskers

The Pick: Illinois squeaked out a victory over Nebraska in their lone meeting this winter, and I suspect this semifinal to also be a tight one. Keisei Tominaga dropped 31 points in that loss and is always a wild card, but I'm not sure he can carry the 'Huskers to victory against an Illinois team with weapons at just about every spot.

Big Ten Championship Game

2 Illinois Fighting Illini over

1 Purdue Boilermakers

The Pick: An awfully chalky Championship Game prediction perhaps, but Purdue and Illinois have been the best two teams in the conference all season and it's only fitting they meet one final time with the league tournament title on the line. Purdue won both of the regular season games, but by just 11 combined points, and I think Brad Underwood is a good enough coach that he will have made the necessary adjustments. If the Illini can do just enough to slow down Edey, their outside shooting and superior guard play should help them come out on top.

Big Ten Champion: 2 Illinois Fighting Illini

After two down seasons to begin the Brad Underwood era, Illinois has been a model of consistency in the Big Ten, winning 20 or more games each of the last five years. Yet, for all that success, a long NCAA Tournament has eluded Underwood and the Illini, at least up until now. I think this is the year that changes, with a roster built to win in March. There's the explosive leading scorer (Terrance Shannon Jr.), the sharpshooting wing who can take over when needed (Marcus Domask), a pair of versatile two-way bigs (Coleman Hawkins & Quincy Guerrier), and experience and depth throughout. I genuinely think this team has a Final Four ceiling, and the Big Ten Tournament could be just what they need to get it all rolling. 

NFL Mock Draft 2024: Edition 4 (Combine Edition)

Malik Nabers, LSU to New York Giants

1. Chicago Bears

Caleb Williams, QB, USC

Even as the pre-Draft process heats up, little has changed at the top, with Caleb Williams remaining the overwhelming favorite to be the top overall selection this spring. Justin Fields remains on the Bears roster, but Williams is the type of franchise-changing quarterback that simply doesn't come along very often - it will be nearly impossible for Chicago to pass him up.

2. Washington Commanders

Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina

Things could get interesting at pick two with Washington certain to entertain trade possibilities, but if they do stay firm, all signs point to Drake Maye at this spot. The former Tar Heel signal-caller checks just about every box, and this appears to be a good landing spot for him, teaming up with an offensive coordinator that will make the most of his skillset in Kliff Kingsbury.

3. New England Patriots

Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU

I'm not entirely convinced New England will go quarterback here, even if it's clear that Mac Jones is not the long-term answer. Bringing in a veteran seems like a safer move for Year One of the Jerod Mayo era, but the most likely scenario does still remain Jayden Daniels, fresh off a 2023 Heisman campaign. Daniels gives the Patriots a playmaker at the position they have been lacking, but it will be curious to see what else they do offensively, with clear needs at receiver and along the offensive line.

4. Arizona Cardinals

Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State

Arizona could be a real wild card looking ahead to next fall. The lost 2023 season aside, this remains a very talented roster top-to-bottom, and a healthy Kyler Murray makes them a spoiler who could play their way into the NFC playoff picture. But in order to do so, they need more help for Kyler on the outside, especially with Marquise Brown likely to head elsewhere. Marvin Harrison Jr. is the clear No. 1 wide out in this Draft and will open things up underneath for Trey McBride and the rest of this supporting cast.

5. Los Angeles Chargers

Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia

With the top four picks remaining steady (for the time being), LA's selection at five could be the spot where the Draft really starts to heat up. Jim Harbaugh's arrival adds an interesting layer to a team that should have been much better than they were in 2023, and there are multiple directions they could go. I like the idea of bringing in Brock Bowers, a superstar tight end who will open up the passing game and provide Justin Herbert a security blanket. Who knows, he could just be the reincarnation of Antonio Gates, and have a long and fruitful career in a Charger jersey.

6. New York Giants

Malik Nabers, WR, LSU

Daniel Jones seems to have an uncertain future in the Big Apple, but if the Giants are intending to stick with him, they absolutely need to upgrade the weapons around him. The organization has lacked a true No. 1 receiver for far too long, but that could change if they take Malik Nabers with this pick. The speedster put together a monster 2023 paired with Jayden Daniels, and is the type of playmaker that you can line up just about anywhere and expect production from.

7. Tennessee Titans

Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn State

After Will Levis flashed during his rookie season, the objective is clear for the Titans: get him some protection. Levis was sacked 28 times in his nine starts, but fortunately help could be on the way in the form of Olu Fashanu, a powerful blocker out of Penn State who looks to be a Top 10 lock. Fashanu wasn't quite as dominant his 2023 season as some expected, but has still done enough to earn recognition as the likely top linemen off the board.

8. Atlanta Falcons

Dallas Turner, DE/LB, Alabama

Atlanta remains in the market for a quarterback, but my suspicion is that they'll look to a veteran for 2024 and instead use this Top 10 selection to get new head coach Raheem Morris some new toys to play with defensively. That includes edge rusher Dallas Turner, an unstoppable force off the edge who unsurprisingly had an impressive showing at the Combine.

9. Chicago Bears

Rome Odunze, WR, Washington

Chicago's quarterback woes have been well-documented, but the organization has also had a frustrating time developing the receiver position, something that needs to change if Caleb Williams is to be the guy in the Windy City. Rome Odunze didn't blow away on-lookers at the Combine, but remains one of the top receivers on the board, with the downfield explosiveness to give this Bear offense some real bite.

10. New York Jets

Taliese Fuaga, OL, Oregon State

As I've mentioned multiple times, Oregon State's Taliese Fuaga is the type of pro prospect that is going to keep steadily climbing draft boards, and it wouldn't shock me if he ends up being the first linemen taken this spring. The Jets have obvious needs to address along their O-Line, and Fuaga could be a plug-and-play right tackle for them.

11. Minnesota Vikings

Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama

This may be the toughest pick in the entire first round for me to call. With Kirk Cousins' future in Minnesota up in the air, the Vikings could certainly be in play for a quarterback, but do they have the ammunition to trade up for one? Something tells me Minnesota brass is fine staying here and instead filling out other holes on the roster, including corner. Terrion Arnold had a strong day at the Combine, and is in a neck-and-neck battle with Quinyon Mitchell to be the top CB off the board.

12. Denver Broncos

J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan

Sean Payton has made it quite clear that Russell Wilson is not going to be Denver's starting quarterback in 2024, although the Broncos are at an interesting spot when it comes to taking a new franchise signal-caller. The top trio is long gone, but J.J. McCarthy will still likely be available here, giving Payton a young, well-rounded QB to mold for years to come.

13. Las Vegas Raiders

Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo

As impressive as Terrion Arnold was at the Combine, Quinyon Mitchell didn't disappoint, either. The Toledo product ran a blazing fast 40 and looked smooth throughout the on-field drills, likely cementing him as a Top 15 selection this cycle. He just feels like a Raiders prospect to me, particularly with a clear need on the back-end for Las Vegas.

14. New Orleans Saints

Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame

It would come as a bit of a surprise to see Joe Alt last on draft boards this long, but depending on how things shake out at the top, it's not completely out of the question. That would be quite a win for New Orleans, enabling them to add a valuable piece at a need position, potentially replacing Trevor Penning or the oft-injured Ryan Ramczyk.

15. Indianapolis Colts

Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson

Quinyon Mitchell and Terrion Arnold are beginning to separate themselves, but Clemson's Nate Wiggins should not be overlooked even after leaving the Combine with a hip injury. Wiggins had a long and productive career with the Tigers, and has the physical traits to be a steady corner for the long haul. He'll be a welcome addition to a Colt secondary that has struggled in recent years and now must contend with C.J. Stroud inside the division.

16. Seattle Seahawks

Jared Verse, DE, Florida State

Seattle absolutely needs to bolster their pass rush if they have any hopes of staying competitive in the loaded NFC West, and there are an abundance of options available to them at the 16 spot. Jared Verse was one of the big winners from the Combine and looks to have cemented himself as a Top 20 selection - he'd be a great pickup for the Seahawks here.

17. Jacksonville Jaguars

Byron Murphy II, DT, Texas

There are three obvious needs for Jacksonville this offseason: O-Line, D-Line, and cornerback. With the top three tackles off the board and the top three corners gone, that leaves defensive line the most likely route in this mock. Enter Byron Murphy II, a disruptive force out of Texas who didn't exactly wow at the Combine, but offers significant value in the mid-first.

18. Cincinnati Bengals

J.C. Latham, OT, Alabama

For as impressive as the first several years of Joe Burrow's NFL career have been, the injury concerns surrounding the former No. 1 pick are clear. The Bengals need to do whatever possible to keep their franchise quarterback healthy and thriving, and that will take further investment along the offensive line. J.C. Latham is a brick wall who should be a staple for years to come at one of the tackle spots in Cincy.

19. Los Angeles Rams

Laiatu Latu, DE/LB, UCLA

Much like division foe Seattle, the Rams need to upgrade their defensive line, which has underwhelmed for years beyond Aaron Donald. They have a chance to stay local and add a high-upside piece in Laiatu Latu, who doesn't test as well as the other premier pass rushers in this Draft, but offers ample schematic versatility at a key position.

20. Pittsburgh Steelers

Jackson Powers-Johnson, OL, Oregon

It's never flashy to take an interior linemen in the first round, but this would be a home run selection for Pittsburgh. Mason Cole is officially gone, and the Steelers have a chance to replace him with a well-rounded blocker like Jackson Powers-Johnson, who put together a marvelous career at Oregon and has only helped himself in the pre-Draft process.

21. Miami Dolphins

Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama

Kool-Aid McKinstry hasn't exactly wowed through the pre-Draft process and now looks like the likely fourth or fifth corner off the board, but the Alabama product remains an elite athlete who could help numerous NFL teams in a variety of ways. With the Dolphins moving on from Xavien Howard and Jalen Ramsey not getting any younger, this makes plenty of sense.

22. Philadelphia Eagles

Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa

The steal of the Draft? Cooper DeJean is a much better prospect than this selection may indicate but with so many quality corners set to go in the first, he could slide a bit. That would be a major win for Philadelphia, adding a game-changer at a need position who can also help out on special teams.

23. Houston Texans

Jer'Zhan Newton, DL, Illinois

Beyond Will Anderson Jr., Houston's pass rush is lacking and there's a particular need on the interior, with Sheldon Rankins set to become a free agent. The Texans would love if Jer'Zhan "Johnny" Newton were available to them at pick 23, adding a player who was one of the most dominant defenders anywhere in the country over the last several seasons.

24. Dallas Cowboys

Troy Fautanu, OL, Washington

Tyron Smith is set to hit the open market and even if Dallas does bring him back, it's time to start thinking about the future at the position. Troy Fautanu was highly productive throughout his time at Washington, and his ability to play either tackle or interior offensive line makes him quite valuable. A permanent move to guard could soon be on the horizon, but the Cowboys can use him however they see fit with this selection.

25. Green Bay Packers

Ennis Rakestraw Jr., CB, Missouri

12 of Green Bay's last 13 first-round selections have been on the defensive side of the ball, a trend I don't see ending in 2024. Even with most of the big name corners off the board, the Packers have a clear need at this spot and have a chance for a high-upside in Ennis Rakestraw Jr., a well-rounded defender who was a key cog in the Missouri secondary for years.

26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas

More and more, you get the sense that Mike Evans will be sporting a different jersey color than Tampa red in 2024. As tough as it will be to lose a franchise staple like him, the Buccaneers should use this as an opportunity to get younger and more athletic at the position. Fresh off breaking the Combine 40 record, Xavier Worthy is unsurprisingly ascending draft boards, and would certainly add much-needed explosiveness on the perimeter.

27. Arizona Cardinals

Graham Barton, OL, Duke

Arizona got their offensive difference-maker earlier in Marvin Harrison Jr., now it's time to drill down and address needs along their offensive line. Graham Barton can play just about anywhere along the offensive front and is the type of proven, steady blocker that is going to have a long, fruitful NFL career.

28. Buffalo Bills

Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU

Gabe Davis is just about a lock to head elsewhere in free agency, so the Bills snag a new No. 2 to pair opposite of Stefon Diggs in LSU's Brian Thomas Jr. Thomas isn't quite the versatile weapon former Tiger teammate Malik Nabers is, but he's got ideal size and the skillset to be an elite deep threat, opening plenty of doors for this Buffalo offense.

29. Detroit Lions

Chop Robinson, DE, Penn State

I love the idea of Detroit investing in another ferocious pass rusher to add much-needed bite to this front seven. Chop Robinson, who began his career at Maryland before transferring to Penn State, has all the physical gifts that translate to the NFL and flashed repeatedly with the Nittany Lions. With Dan Campbell and Aaron Glenn, he has the opportunity to become something special.

30. Baltimore Ravens

Amarius Mims, OL, Georgia

This is about as Baltimore of a first-round selection as you can get, landing a talented prospect who just happens to slide in this particular mock. Amarius Mims could be the long-term replacement for Ronnie Stanley, a likely cap casualty over the offseason, with a staggering cap hit of over $26 million.

31. San Francisco 49ers

Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma

As opposed to many of the other big-name blockers this cycle like Olu Fashanu and Joe Alt, Tyler Guyton doesn't bring ample starting experience to the table, starting just one season at Oklahoma. Despite that, the 6'7" behemoth has all the physical traits to be a dominant linemen in the pros, and a team like San Francisco has the depth to gamble on a boom-or-bust prospect like him.

32. Kansas City Chiefs

Ladd McConkey, WR, Georgia

It remains amazing to me that on a roster full of blue-chippers, Ladd McConkey was the most consistent offensive weapon for Georgia over the last two seasons, with the obvious exception of Brock Bowers. The former Bulldog doesn't wow physically, but he's sound all-around and can line up just about anywhere. He'll add consistency, reliability, and versatility to a Kansas City receiver corps that lacked all three in 2023.