Friday, July 31, 2020

NBA Draft 2020 Player Profile: James Wiseman

It wasn't Anthony Edwards, or La'Melo Ball, or even Cole Anthony who ranked as ESPN's No. 1 prospect in the Class of 2020. No, it was James Wiseman, a seven-footer out of Memphis East High School who hoped to stay in the city for his college years. However, Wiseman ran into problems with the NCAA before he ever really got rolling with the Tigers, playing in just three games before announcing he would instead focus on the 2020 NBA Draft. That means it will likely be nearly a year between Wiseman's last game of organized basketball, only adding to the intrigue surrounding the 19-year-old. There are no questions about the big man's talent, but will his game be able to translate to the modern NBA?

Quick Facts
James Wiseman
From: Nashville, Tennessee
Height & Weight: 7'1", 250 pounds
Position: Center
Team: Memphis Tigers

Strengths


  • Size and rim protecting ability. It may sound like an empty complement, but James Wiseman looks like an NBA player. He stands at 7'1" with a 7'5" wingspan and 9'6" standing reach. Those are all favorable measurements for the NBA, even in a league that seems to focus on size and length like never before. Wiseman also uses that size in a way that can impact games; he's a great shot-blocker and he's incredibly active around the rim. Even if he doesn't block shots, Wiseman is the type of player that will effect every single shot that goes up. That's an obvious plus for him, and NBA teams are always looking for proven rim protectors.
  • Excellent touch and finishing around the rim. In three games for Memphis, Wiseman recorded 19.7 PPG on 77% shooting from the field. Obviously, those numbers are going to be inflated when you play a total of just 69 total minutes, but they were generally consistent with what Wiseman was able to do in high school. He has a wide variety of post moves that allow him to get his shot off, and he has a nice, soft touch. Wiseman is also terrific at finishing off lobs and put-back jams. His reach allows him to play above the rim, and he has the natural instincts and athleticism to get those easy put-back opportunities. 
  • Terrific rebounder, particularly on offense. You would hope that a seven-footer built like Wiseman would be effective on the boards, but that doesn't take away from his strengths. Again, his instincts and feel for rebounding are impressive for his age, and pretty advanced. He's also an incredibly hard worker, which makes him a real force on the offensive glass. It's tough to move him off the block, and he finds ways to get tips off the basket. In those three games with the Tigers, Wiseman recorded 4.3 offensive rebounds per game in just 23 minutes per game. Again, those numbers are going to be a little bit inflated, but that's still pretty mind-boggling production that he should be able to carry over to the NBA.
  • Mobile big that can run the floor in transition and defend multiple spots. This is the thing I find most impressive about watching Wiseman. Despite his size and length, he moves incredibly well, and has significant rim running potential for the next level. On defense, he's going to be used as a rim protector but in the modern NBA, he'll also be asked to move around quite a bit and defend on the perimeter. He has shown that he can do that, and he should be even more effective with NBA-level coaching.
Weaknesses

  • Zero floor stretching ability at this point in his career. This is going to be the most prevalent knock you'll see against Wiseman, and it's somewhat understandable. The way the game of basketball is moving, big men are forced to play on the perimeter and create more than they ever have before. Sure, Wiseman has proven he can defend away from the rim, but can he consistently hit 20-footers? At this point in his career, it doesn't appear so. That doesn't mean he can't grow that part of his game, but his offensive game is still relatively limited right now. It will take at least a few years of development for him to really show his offensive potential, and I think he'll need to land in the right situation to do so.
  • Still very unproven beyond the high school level. This is a weakness that I wouldn't qualify as a major negative for the big man, as a number of people have made the jump to the NBA without much difficulty even without playing college ball. With that being said, you'd like to see how Wiseman matches up against top competition prior to his jump to the pros. His athleticism and pure talent made him so dominant in high school, but the type of defenders he'll see in the NBA are significantly different. He is going to have to grow and evolve different parts of his game in order to succeed at the next level. That doesn't mean he can't do that, but you'd like to see a fuller body of work from Wiseman. Just look at La'Melo Ball, who didn't go to college but still got important basketball experience by playing in Australia's NBL the past season, going up against real professionals in meaningful games. Again, I wouldn't categorize this as a major downfall for Wiseman, but it will be on NBA team's minds when they consider taking the big man.
  • Questions about consistency, focus game-to-game. Naturally, 19-year-old basketball players are going to be fairly inconsistent, as they continue to hone their craft and round out their games. Such is the case for Wiseman, who had a reputation in high school for incredibly streaky play. He obviously had his dominant moments and lots of them, but he did lose his focus at times and get into early foul trouble, which completely took him out of the game. This is something we see from young bigs often, particularly those who are considered good shot-blockers, because they can often be so eager to make defensive plays. He's going to have to show he can play a lot of minutes and maintain his focus on both ends of the floor. That is another issue that could be solved with more time, but it's certainly a question mark for Wiseman at this point, and one we didn't see improvement on in his short collegiate time. 
My Take
Of the three prospects I've featured so far in my "NBA Draft 2020 Player Profile" series, Wiseman is the one I feel the least confident in. If we had seen a player like him entering the NBA a decade ago, he'd probably be a shoe-in for a Top 3 selection, with his blend of athleticism, size, and overall upside. But, the center position in the league today is just so different. There's so much emphasis put on floor-spacing, and being able to do a lot of different things, and Wiseman is pretty limited at this point in his career. Of course, he has the upside to really grow into his game, but he's just so unproven right now, and he hasn't been able to change that narrative by impressive in pre-Draft workouts or the NBA Draft Combine, yet. Currently, he ranks No. 4 on my NBA Draft Big Board (behind Ball, Anthony Edwards and forward Deni Avdija), but perhaps he could change that as the NBA calendar begins to return to normal over the coming weeks and months.

Where He'll Go
Even with notable question marks, there's a very good chance Wiseman lands somewhere in the Top 5 of the 2020 NBA Draft, maybe even Top 3. This year's class is very underwhelming in terms of big men, with the only other name seriously rivaling Wiseman being USC's Onyeka Okongwu. Wiseman could really benefit from the fact that a number of the likely teams at the top of this Draft need another big. That includes Golden State, who reportedly really likes Wiseman, Atlanta, Minnesota and the New York Knicks. If things break right for Wiseman he could even be considered a strong candidate for the No. 1 pick, depending on how the pre-Draft process plays out.


Thursday, July 23, 2020

NCAA's Transfer Waiver Problem is the Worst Thing About College Football Right Now

J.T. Daniels, Georgia
College football, for all its greatness and glory, has never been a sport completely devoid of problems. For nearly its entire history, the sport has dealt with questions of what it truly means to be a "student-athlete", the obvious institutional and financial differences between the sport's "haves" and "have-nots" and recently, questions about player's long-term health.

The invention of the sport's transfer portal a few years ago seemed like a logical next step in college football's evolution. Transfers are becoming increasingly common today, and even more important in the college football landscape. However, the invention of the portal has coincided with an issue that threatens the core of college competition: transfer waivers. To the casual college football observer, the difference between a player gaining immediate eligibility and having to sit out the traditional one-year penalty may not seem like a huge deal. But the way these waivers are being distributed and used consistently tilts in the favor of blue blood programs and big-name players. Essentially, the NCAA is playing favorites with the programs and players that bring in the most money (the programs they like the most), an appalling notion in the modern age of collegiate athletics.

To understand the warped logic being applied to NCAA transfer waivers, one simply has to look at some of the biggest transfers of the last few seasons. Following the 2018 campaign, Georgia QB Justin Fields, previously the nation's No. 1 quarterback coming out of high school, announced that he would be transferring to Ohio State. Around the same time, Ohio State's projected starting QB for the 2019 season, Tate Martell, saw the writing on the wall with Fields arriving and announced he would transfer to Miami. Neither transfer decision was necessarily shocking; Fields wasn't going to beat out Jake Fromm at UGA and wanted to play for Ryan Day at Ohio State, while Martell wanted to start, and didn't believe he could beat out Fields in Columbus. What is shocking is how quickly both were able to gain immediate eligibility for the upcoming 2019 season. Fields enrolled in classes in mid-January and was ruled eligible exactly a month later. Martell announced he would transfer a few weeks after Fields and also earned immediate eligibility in about a month. The reason for both of them earning a waiver so quickly? Still unclear. To be fair to Fields there was other circumstances that made it understandable why he would leave Georgia. During his freshman year in 2018, he was referred to as a racist slur by a member of UGA's baseball team during a loss to Tennessee. Certainly one could understand why Fields would not want to play for the Bulldogs following the incident, and the comments were used as "mitigating circumstances" for his waiver. With that being said, one has to question how these comments warranted immediate eligibility at the next university he would enroll. And Martell's reasons for earning a waiver? Beyond disagreements with some members of the coaching staff, there doesn't appear to be any clear reason given. In addition to those two last off-season, former USC quarterback J.T. Daniels made waves earlier this past off-season when he announced his decision to transfer to Georgia. He received word that he would be eligible to play in the 2020 season (assuming it happens) less than eight weeks after the decision to transfer. Like Fields, Daniels did have some circumstances that allowed him to earn eligibility. He missed nearly all of 2019 with a torn ACL, and he used the missed season as his required "redshirt" year during the transfer process.

Considering the NCAA allowed these high-profile names immediate waivers through relatively vague circumstances, one would assume that would allow to others also looking to enroll at new schools. Not quite. The NCAA's unclear rules suddenly become crystal-clear when they involve players enrolling at smaller Power Five or Group of Five schools. Simply look at tight end Luke Ford, who began his career at Georgia. Ford, a native of Carterville, IL., opted to transfer to Illinois to be closer to his family and his ill grandfather but his waiver for immediate eligibility was denied in April of 2019. Ford decided to appeal the waiver and was denied a second time by the NCAA. Their reasoning? Carterville, Illinois is roughly 190 miles away from the campus of Illinois, and the NCAA had set a threshold of 100 miles for gaining a waiver because of family reasons. A similar situation occurred for Brock Hoffman, an offensive linemen who decided to transfer from Coastal Carolina to Virginia Tech. Hoffman was hopeful to also be closer to home to play in front of his family and mother, who was recovering from a brain tumor. Once again, Hoffman's home was ruled outside the required NCAA radius, in a story that's pretty sickening to read.  If the NCAA wants to institute these strict rules for players with reasonable circumstances to play, so be it. But, why aren't these rules applied in the same way to Fields, Martell, and Daniels, cases that seemed to be left intentionally unclear and confusing?

It isn't just the rules that seem to intentionally vague and unclear, but how the timing process works on individual waivers. Again, Daniels, Fields, and Martell all saw their immediate eligibility waivers clear within the span of two months. Compared to that trio, less high-profile college players are forced to wait months and months to await any clear indication on their NCAA futures. Take Joey Gatewood and Phil Jurkovec, two QB transfers who enrolled to play at Kentucky and Boston College, respectively. Gatewood announced his transfer last December and still has no idea whether he'll be able to play in 2020. Jurkovec opted to transfer just a few weeks later, in early January, and also doesn't know his status for this next fall (again, assuming it happens in some form). Even look at Cade Mays, Justin Fields former teammate at Georgia. He decided to transfer in January and also has a reasonable exemption for leaving, in a truly bizarre story. He also has not heard his status for the fall, making Daniels quick waiver decision so shocking. Timing may not seem ultra-important when it comes to NCAA waivers, but imagine if COVID-19 was not a factor this season. These players would be rolling into fall camp still uncertain about their status. That be crucial for a player, especially those in the heat of position battles, which Jurkovec and Gatewood are in at their new schools.

All of this isn't to say that I'm against the transfer process as a whole. I think it's a great thing that we have reached the "player empowerment" era across the sports landscape. If you're a true college football fan, I believe you shouldn't have an issue with players making decisions that they believe is in the best interest for themselves, even if that means leaving your favorite school. The NCAA waiving the one-year transfer penalty altogether and allowing all players one transfer without having to sit out seems like a logical step in the right direction, and it would clear up a significant problem with transfer waivers. To the NCAA's credit, this is a move that has been discussed and will be voted on, although the vote was pushed back as a result of COVID-19. There are valid concerns about how this could affect roster management and depth, but coaches will be able to adapt, as they've done countless times before.

Now, I know there are always things going on behind the scenes that can have an effect on transfer waivers. There could certainly be understandable reasons for Daniels immediate waiver, and Fields and Martell before that. However, it's hard for any college football fan or supporter to view these waivers without seeing a pretty clear double standard that seems especially slanted in one direction. Competition and parity are two of the things that make college football so fascinating year-in, year-out, and it's almost like the NCAA is openly picking against that. The NCAA's involvement and overt favoritism has really degraded the transfer process, something that should be a positive option for players has turned into a game about blue bloods and money. There's more to college football than that, and the NCAA, who prides themselves on the notion of the "student athlete" should practice what they preach.

Wednesday, July 15, 2020

NBA Mock Draft 2020: Edition 2 (Restart Edition)

Isaac Okoro, Auburn
It has been four months since the 2020 NBA season was postponed as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic, but basketball appears to be on the horizon. We are just two weeks away from the games restarting in "The Bubble" in Orlando. Even though the season has been on hold, NBA teams are never not scouting future talent, meaning the 2020 Draft board has likely shifted quite a bit.

1. Golden State Warriors
Anthony Edwards, G, Georgia
There is not a clear No. 1 prospect at this juncture in the NBA Draft cycle, but Georgia's Anthony Edwards is the likely favorite right now. Although he was far from perfect in his lone season with the Bulldogs, scouts love his explosiveness and scoring potential. Golden State's struggles without Steph Curry and Klay Thompson have made it clear they have to add to a thin backcourt if they want to compete in the Western Conference once again.
2. Cleveland Cavaliers
James Wiseman, C, Memphis
It's hard to know where James Wiseman will fall in this upcoming Draft. He's extremely talented, but he didn't play very much at all with Memphis this past season, and his game is old-school when you consider the direction the league is going. Even so, Cleveland might feel motivated to snag a new franchise big, especially with their last two NBA Draft first-round selections being guards.
3. Minnesota Timberwolves
La'Melo Ball, G, Australia
Minnesota is going to be a fascinating team to watch this next off-season and going forward. They still believe a core of Karl Anthony-Towns and D'Angelo Russell can win in the Western Conference, but you still get the feeling they're a few pieces away from any serious contention. With their roster likely to be in flux as they continue to build in the future, best player available here would make the most sense. In my opinion, that is La'Melo Ball.
4. Atlanta Hawks
Isaac Okoro, G/F, Auburn
Atlanta's backcourt of Trae Young and Kevin Huerter is fun to watch when both are shooting the ball well, but neither are very good defenders. If the Hawks are hoping to take the next step, they'll need a better defensive team, particularly on the wings. Isaac Okoro is the perfect solution, and he's incredibly efficient too; he shot over 51 percent from the field in his lone season with Auburn.
5. Detroit Pistons
Obi Toppin, F, Dayton
The best player in college basketball this past season, Obi Toppin could go anywhere in the 2020 NBA Draft. He has the talent to legitimately be the first off the board, but it also wouldn't be shocking if he slips. Detroit needs all the help they can get offensively, and Toppin will inject some much-needed energy into the organization.
6. New York Knicks
Deni Avdija, F, Israel
While college basketball stars have been sidelined for months, Deni Avdija could see an opportunity to rise up boards as his team, Maccabi Tel Aviv, returns to action. NBA scouts are really intrigued by Avdija's smooth offensive game, and he's got ideal size for a forward at 6'9". Knicks fans might not necessarily love this selection, but Avdija is the type of guy that should be able to handle the pressure.
7. Chicago Bulls
Tyrese Haliburton, G, Iowa State
Although the Bulls drafted Coby White in the first round a year ago, Tyrese Haliburton may be too interesting to pass up here. The Iowa State product has great size (6'5"), can play and defend multiple positions, and passes the ball extremely well. He could even go higher on this board if not for the wrist injury suffered late this season that may make NBA teams wary.
8. Charlotte Hornets
Onyeka Okongwu, F/C, USC
Onyeka Okongwu didn't get a ton of attention playing on the West Coast this year, but he was extremely productive for USC and has a chance to be a Top 5 pick. He's an elite athlete that moves very well for his size, he has great touch around the rim, and he can stretch the floor a little. Charlotte desperately needs frontcourt help, making this is a no-brainer.
9. Washington Wizards
Killian Hayes, PG, France
There's a lot of variation in how NBA scouts and media people view Killian Hayes. Some think he may be the best player in this class, and there are some who don't think he's even lottery material. His passing ability and court vision are already at NBA levels, but he doesn't shoot the ball very well and consistency is a problem. Even so, the Wizards need a long-term solution at point guard, especially when you consider John Wall's injury history.
10. Phoenix Suns
Devin Vassell, G/F, Florida State
Florida State surprised a lot of people by winning the ACC this past season, and Devin Vassell was a major reason why. He led the Seminoles in scoring, and shot 42 percent from three, while showcasing a versatile offensive game. He makes a lot of sense for a Phoenix team looking to provide Devin Booker and DeAndre Ayton valuable complementary pieces.
11. San Antonio Spurs
Theo Maledon, PG, France
San Antonio is a franchise with a track record of success drafting international prospects, and they will be willing to take a chance on one here in Theo Maledon. The French point guard can play on-ball or off, and he's got significant offensive upside as a go-to scorer. He still needs to polish off parts of his game, but he's the type of prospect that can provide an immediate boost.
12. Sacramento Kings
Aaron Nesmith, G, Vanderbilt
There probably is not a better in the 2020 NBA Draft than Aaron Nesmith. Nesmith shot 52 percent from three with Vanderbilt this past season and while those numbers might be somewhat inflated because he missed time due to injury, his shot should carry over to the NBA. He'll help open up lanes for De'Aaron Fox and some of Sacramento's other playmakers.
13. New Orleans Pelicans
Cole Anthony, PG, UNC
Cole Anthony has the talent to go in the Top 10 of this Draft, but there are concerns with him. For one thing, he missed a significant portion of this past season with injury and even when he did play, he had a tendency to force shots and make mistakes. Anthony is a very confident player and he has a diverse offensive game, but he'll need to cut down on his mistakes. Playing under Alvin Gentry could help maximize his strengths, while limiting his issues.
14. Portland Trail Blazers
Precious Achiuwa, F/C, Memphis
Although Memphis was a disappointment this past season, Precious Achiuwa certainly was not. The highly touted newcomer averaged a double-double for the Tigers, while playing with great energy and attitude. Portland really could use more help in their frontcourt, and Achiuwa is worth the value in the late lottery.
15. Orlando Magic
Tyrese Maxey, G, Kentucky
Orlando has built a solid young core around Aaron Gordon, Nikola Vucevic and Jonathan Isaac, but their backcourt is far from settled. They could use some scoring punch there, and while he was awfully streaky at Kentucky, Tyrese Maxey would provide that. He had some dominant games with the Wildcats, but he has to shoot better than 29 percent from three if he is to succeed.
16. Minnesota Timberwolves
Patrick Williams, F, Florida State
Already adding La'Melo Ball earlier, Minnesota uses Brooklyn's pick to strengthen their frontline. Williams is still awfully raw, but he's a well-rounded forward with some versatility to his game. He'll need some time to learn and grow, but the upside is certainly there and he should fit well alongside KAT.
17. Boston Celtics
Saddiq Bey, F, Villanova
Don't be surprised if Saddiq Bey is a name that starts to shoot up boards the closer we get to the Draft. He had a breakout year for Villanova, and he's a late bloomer who is still growing into his body. As a sophomore in high school, Bey was 6'1", and he's grown at least seven inches since then. If he continues to grow and adjust, he could really evolve into something special.
18. Dallas Mavericks
R.J. Hampton, PG, New Zealand
R.J. Hampton was one of a growing number of high school kids deciding to forgo college and gain professional experience right away overseas. His numbers didn't overwhelm while playing for the New Zealand Breakers, but he still has a chance to go in the lottery based purely on potential. He has to grow as a shooter and distributor, but he's worth the risk here.
19. Milwaukee Bucks
Josh Green, G, Arizona
Josh Green offers a lot as a potential "3-and-D" player at the next level who can shoot the ball and play great defense. Those types of players are becoming hot commodities in the NBA, and it would make sense for Milwaukee to add Green. They know they aren't going to strike gold in the late first and find a new star to pair with Giannis, but finding players who can contribute is still possible.
20. Brooklyn Nets
Kira Lewis Jr., PG, Alabama
Brooklyn is still very hopeful that Kyrie Irving can be the star point guard they were hoping he would be when they signed him, but backcourt depth is never a problem. Kira Lewis was very good this past season for Alabama, scoring in a variety of ways and averaging five assists per game. He probably doesn't have superstar potential, but he can play in this league.
21. Denver Nuggets
Nico Mannion, PG, Arizona
Nico Mannion had an up-and-down '19-'20 season with Arizona, but he still has a lot of attributes that NBA teams covet. He's an excellent passer, a solid defender, and he's particularly effective in the open floor. Denver has a pretty deep roster right now but you can also use backup point guards, especially in the Western Conference.
22. Philadelphia Sixers
Jalen Smith, F/C, Maryland
Philadelphia might have one of the best big men in the NBA in Joel Embiid, but they lack quality depth on their frontline. If they do indeed draft at this selection, there should be a number of quality bigs available, but Jalen Smith seems to offer the most. He can run the floor, finish underneath, and he's a really good shooter for his position.
23. Miami Heat
Jahmi'us Ramsey, G, Texas Tech
Even though he was awfully streaky in his lone season in Lubbock, Jahmi'us Ramsey caught NBA teams attention with a versatile offensive game and a fearless attitude. It's unclear whether Ramsey will play the one or two when he makes the jump to the league, but he appears to be more effective on-ball. Miami could use some point guard help going forward, no matter whether Goran Dragic leaves over the off-season or not.
24. Utah Jazz
Daniel Oturu, F/C, Minnesota
I'm admittedly a little biased when it comes to Daniel Oturu, but I'm shocked he isn't getting more love when looking ahead to the 2020 NBA Draft. He had a breakout campaign for the Gophers and he's far from a limited, back-to-the-basket big. He can shoot, rebound and defend just as well as anybody in this class.
25. Oklahoma City Thunder
Tyrell Terry, G, Stanford
After averaging 14.6 PPG on 44 percent shooting (41 from three), Tyrell Terry has burst into first-round consideration. He's an effective scorer that has proven he can shoulder the offensive load, even if he is a little bit undersized for his position. Even so, he would be a nice addition to the backcourt that OKC is building with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
26. Boston Celtics
Isaiah Stewart, C, Washington
Isaiah Stewart may be a little bit small to play the five in the NBA at 6'9", but he makes up for it with an incredibly high motor and impressive rebounding prowess. Boston would love to add depth at the center position and there doesn't seem to be any risk to taking the Washington product here.
27. New York Knicks
Tre Jones, PG, Duke
The Knicks need to come out of the 2020 Draft with a point guard, and if they don't draft one earlier, taking one later on certainly makes sense. Tre Jones is never going to be a 20-point scorer every night in the NBA, but he's perhaps the best on-ball defender in this class, and he's a great leader. New York simply doesn't have enough of those types of guys on their roster.
28. Toronto Raptors
Reggie Perry, F, Mississippi State
Based purely off athleticism and upside, Reggie Perry might be a lottery pick. However, the Mississippi State product doesn't really project as a rim protector in the NBA, likely dropping him to either the bottom of the first round, or the second. Toronto has a track record for developing forwards into effective contributors, and Perry could be next.
29. Boston Celtics
Alexsej Pokusevski, F, Serbia
With three first-rounders in this upcoming class, it wouldn't be shocking to see Boston use on an international "stash" guy like Pokusevski. The Serbian has serious floor-stretching potential, which is always an attribute NBA teams are looking for. He also offers significant defensive upside, with a 7'3" wingspan and 9'1" standing reach.
30. Los Angeles Lakers
Devon Dotson, PG, Kansas
As the leader of the nation's No. 1 team, Devon Dotson could have become a household name in the NCAA Tournament if it hadn't been cancelled. He obviously won't get that opportunity, but he really emerged as a terrific floor leader with the Jayhawks and he's a real winner. He would add much-needed depth to this Lakers' backcourt.

Monday, July 6, 2020

College Football Preview 2020: 24. Memphis Tigers

24. Memphis Tigers

Mike Norvell may be gone, but he leaves behind a foundation that can once again compete for a New Year's Six Bowl


Brady White
Offense: Memphis has finished in the Top 15 nationally in scoring offense the last five years, and the ingredients remain for a successful 2020.

Quarterback Brady White is the most crucial returnee, coming back for his senior season with the Tigers. White began his career under Norvell at Arizona State before making the trek to the AAC, and there was some question that he would follow his long-time coach to Tallahassee. Instead, he'll enter 2020 as the best quarterback in the conference, and will have a legitimate shot at becoming the school's all-time passing leader. He does have to cut down on interceptions, as he had 11 last fall and some of them came at crucial moments.

White also has the luxury of having his favorite target, veteran Damonte Coxie, back in the fold. Coxie contemplated going pro, but seems to have something to prove entering the new year. He is a bonafide NFL prospect, with a well-built frame and top-tier athleticism. Coxie averaged nearly 17 yards per catch a year ago, and I still expect Memphis to attack downfield with him often. Tight end Joey Magnifico is a notable loss, as defenses were forced to focus on him underneath. It will be interesting to see whether anybody is able to make up for his absence at the position. Not having a spring certainly hurt the chances of a youngster making the leap. Beyond Coxie, wide out Calvin Austin has shown flashes, and could see an uptick in action.

Norvell loved to throw the ball around and attack opposing defenses and while he may be gone, that philosophy remains intact under offensive coordinator Kevin Johns. However, the Tigers shouldn't shy away from pounding the rock this upcoming fall, as they have a special talent in Kenneth Gainwell. Gainwell redshirted in '19 before breaking on to the scene in the backfield, eclipsing 2,000 all-purpose yards. He will certainly get his opportunities running the ball, but his ability to catch out of the backfield adds another element to this offense. Gainwell will eat up the bulk of carries, but keep an eye on newcomer Asa Martin. Martin is on his third school in the collegiate ranks, beginning at Auburn before a quick pit stop at Miami (where he never suited up), and eventually coming to Memphis. Martin is a former four-star prospect coming out of high school and he's the type of talent the Tigers simply didn't get a half-decade ago. He can also catch the ball out of the backfield, which should help him see opportunities.

This offensive line will almost certainly be overshadowed by the playmakers at the skill positions, but three starters return to the unit and a healthy amount of experience. The left side is particularly strong, with tackle Obinna Eze back for his junior season, along with guard Dylan Parham, who has made 28 straight starts. The center spot may be a concern with Dustin Woodard off to the NFL, but sophomore Isaac Ellis appears to be the favorite.

There are few teams in the entire country that can match what Memphis brings back at the skill positions. They have a veteran quarterback ready to lead the way, a budding superstar at running back, and a proven top target on the perimeter. It seems almost certain they'll once again feature as a Top 15 offense, and they could be even be better than the 2019 edition.

Defense: The prognostication for the defense is not as cheery as the offense. There are some very notable faces gone, including Austin Hall, Bryce Huff, and Chris Claybrooks. Hall is going to be the loss they feel the most. He led the team in tackles during the 2019 campaign, and helped out in a variety of ways. He was the only Memphis Tiger defender to score a touchdown last fall.

Huff was the team's top pass rusher (six sacks), but the outlook for the defensive line still appears fine. Senior Joseph Dorceus is a very important returnee, as a chaotic edge rusher who really grew into his own last year. He's a former walk-on, but his production last fall was no joke, as he totaled 14.5 TFL and five sacks. Memphis coaches are hoping he can get even better with more time under his belt, and rumor is he's added major muscle during the off-season. In the middle, the Tigers also bring back notable experience in O'Bryan Goodson and Morris Joseph. Goodson played a hefty amount of snaps a year ago and showed he was a real technician in run support, with seven tackles for loss. Joseph is a former junior college transfer who acclimated well to the defense in 2019. He had 27 tackles and two sacks as a reserve, but could start this fall in this 4-3 look.

The Tigers linebacker corps was another unit hit hard by the impact of no spring practice. This group has a lot of growing up to do, but there's upside as well. Xavier Cullens is a proven playmaker who was third on Memphis in tackles last fall. He'll need a new playing mate with the absence of Hall. Keith Brown could be an interesting player to watch as a former JUCO transfer who missed most of last season due to injury. The hope is that he's fresh for the fall, and he has the potential to be a really impactful player. Another former transfer, Cincir Evans, could also factor into the linebacker rotation. He arrived from Coastal Carolina in the spring, but obviously things have changed. His eligibility status is uncertain as we look ahead to 2020.

Memphis posted the No. 26 pass defense in the country during 2019, a fairly underrated element of this team a year ago. Sanchez Blake Jr. has the chance to become an All-AAC player as a dynamic strong safety who had 69 tackles and two interceptions last season. He can play close to the line really well for his position, and I think he'll continue to grow in coverage. That could be important for a Tiger team that is hurting at corner. Veteran Jacobi Francis had eight pass deflections in 2019, but may need an adjustment period becoming the No. 1 corner. La'Andre Thomas is the other veteran back in the fold, locking down the free safety position. Thomas was the only Memphis defender to score a touchdown last year, taking an interception 33 yards to the house. Perhaps another late newcomer in the spring or fall can get snaps, but you get the feeling this is going to be a fairly experienced group. They might not be as deep as they were a year ago, but could still figure to be among the conference's elite.

Mike MacIntrye arrives as the new defensive coordinator, looking to keep the momentum going from a strong showing in '19. MacIntrye was formerly the Colorado head coach before guiding the Ole Miss defense last year.

Special Teams: Placekicker Riley Patterson should be active in 2020, and he's proven he can consistently knock in field goals. Patterson is 26 for 36 in his career, including going 23 of 25 in 2019. Don't be surprised if he gets some attention on the Lou Groza Award watchlist for nation's top kicker. The return game could be explosive, but it's not a very well-established group at this point.

Bottom Line: Memphis has been the envy of most of the Group of Five this past half-decade, sending their last two head coaches to ACC powers. Their 12-2 record in 2019 was all about perfect timing and impactful veterans, but not everybody moves on. It's hard to overstate the importance of bringing back Brady White. He'll bridge the gap between Norvell and the new coaching staff, as will Damonte Coxie and Kenneth Gainwell. It's hard to imagine that offense not producing, even some expected changes under the leadership of Ryan Silverfield. But, Silverfield looks like's ready to go; he coached Memphis in the bowl game and even though they lost, he seemed to take command of the team. I don't see a dropoff this year, and think they could still be considered the American Athletic favorite, even though I rank Cincinnati higher. It wouldn't be surprising to see them in their fourth-straight conference championship game and perhaps even staying in New Year's Six Bowl consideration.

Recruiting Breakdown
The Tigers bring in one of the better classes in Group of Five, even breaking in a new coaching staff. They reeled in a number of junior college players who enrolled during the spring. Kundarris Taylor is one of the highest-rated JUCO players in the entire country, and he's a one-time Oklahoma commit. Rhett Weidenbacher is not one the top players in the Class, but I wonder if he'll be able to make an immediate impact at tight end. He comes from a respected JUCO program in Butler Community College, and earned a three-star billing. We'll see how this recruiting class opens up, assuming we get some sort of fall practice in late summer. There were eight enrollees for the spring but a lot more slated to come in for fall camp, including three-star dual threat Keilan Brown. He obviously won't supplant Brady White at the quarterback position, but don't be surprised if he makes an impact in the future.

Team Projections
Projected Record: 9-4 (6-2 AAC, Lose in American Athletic Championship Game)
Offensive MVP: QB Brady White
Defensive MVP: S Sanchez Blake Jr.
Breakout Player of the Year: WR Calvin Austin
Impact Freshman: TE Rhett Weidenbacher (JUCO)

Five-Year Trend

As of publishing, we still do not know the effect that COVID-19 will have on the 2020 college football season beyond cancelled spring practice. It seems highly likely that there will be no fans or a shortened season, at the very least. This preview is operating under the optimistic assumption there will be a season, and even if it is delayed, teams will be able to get a full, 12-game schedule in. 

Wednesday, July 1, 2020

College Football Preview 2020: 25. Louisville Cardinals

25. Louisville Cardinals

The surprising success of Scott Satterfield's first season could lead to an even greater encore in 2020

Tutu Atwell

Offense: Louisville's 2018 offense was one of the worst in Power Five football, averaging under 20 points per game. Those numbers changed rapidly under the leadership of new head coach Scott Satterfield and his staff, as the Cardinals improved to 33.1 PPG (31st nationally). With all the talent back in Louisville, it wouldn't be surprising to see that number again make a jump.

Jawon Pass entered last season as the presumed starter, but he was quickly overtaken by Micale Cunningham (previously Malik). Cunningham was always a great runner, but his passing numbers were surprisingly strong in 2019. He finished with 2,061 yards and 22 touchdowns on the year, while limiting his turnovers. You would still like to see Cunningham become more confident throwing down the field, but he's a smart decision-maker that has proven he can move the chains. He ran for 482 yards a year ago, and teams also have to always respect his legs. Pass returns as the presumed backup, but it will be interesting to see if he decides to transfer.

The biggest surprise on the Cardinals' offense last season was the emergence of Javian Hawkins at tailback. Hawkins ended up rushing for 1,525 yards and nine scores, taking advantage of an offense that put a much larger emphasis on the run than the previous unit under Bobby Petrino. He was truly dominant at moments, including a 233-yard performance against Syracuse in late November. Hawkins will enter 2020 as one of the ACC's best, and one of the more underrated playmakers in the entire country. Joining him will be veteran Hassan Hall, set to begin his junior year as a change-of-pace option. Hall isn't the home run hitter that Hawkins is, but he has a little more size and power to him, eclipsing 500 yards in '19. That 1-2 punch will be the fuel to this Louisville offense, even if Cunningham takes strides as a passer. 

For all the success that this offense and rushing attack had last fall, the offensive line was surprisingly terrible. Beyond Mekhi Becton, it was terribly inconsistent and lacked much punch in either run or pass blocking. The Cardinals allowed the most tackles for loss in the nation last year, and that was with Becton in the fold. Now that Becton is off to the NFL, some other pieces are going to have to step up. Seniors Cole Bentley and Ronnie Bell have played a lot of snaps, but are still looking to develop more consistency. At left tackle, the favorite to replace Becton is junior Adonis Boone, who has upside but is certainly unproven.

With their talented backfield trio in place, it's easy to overlook the playmakers the Cardinals can also feature on the outside. 5'9" dynamo Tutu Atwell was criminally under-utilized by the old coaching staff, but he really broke out last fall. Atwell averaged 18.4 yards per reception a season ago, showcasing a blend of playmaking abilities. He can hit you over the top deep, open things up off screens, or get to the perimeter and make things happen on sweep plays. Atwell even threw a touchdown pass last year, and it will be fascinating to see all the different ways Louisville uses him. He's one of my favorite players in the country looking ahead to 2020. The Cards can also feature two traditional pass-catchers in tight end Marshon Ford and receiver Dez Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick has been very reliable his first three years on the team, and is coming off a 635-yard 2019. Meanwhile, Ford really flashed something special, catching seven touchdown passes in '19. With teams forced to focus so much on Atwell, these Cardinal receivers are going to continue getting opportunities.

Outside of Becton, every crucial piece to this Louisville offense remains in the fold for 2020. This is a real opportunity for these guys to showcase what they can do, and I'm excited to see what new looks Satterfield and staff cook up. If the O-Line can at least be serviceable, I don't think it's crazy to think the Cardinals can have the second best offense in the ACC, behind only Clemson. They have the versatility and playmaking to do it, now it's just about putting that product out on the field.

Defense: Bryan Brown is known as a high-energy guy who followed Satterfield over from Applachian State to become Louisville's defensive coordinator. He needed all that energy to turn around a defense that had one of the worst statistical seasons in Louisville football history. There were certainly some growing pains for Brown and this defense in 2019, but there is hope on the horizon.

Louisville's rush defense was still one of the worst in the ACC last fall, and changing that relies on the defensive line making some improvements. It's a group that has potential, but will be losing one of it's most important pieces in the form of G.G. Robinson, who graduated. Robinson was second on the team in sacks a year ago with four, and he was a real leader for the group. His spot on the interior is likely to be taken by veteran Jared Goldwire, who has proven he can contribute. He had 22 tackles in a rotational role last season, and four tackles for loss. The Cardinals would really like to see one of their defensive ends have a breakout campaign, and there are several possibilities on who that might be. Junior Malik Clark has a real nose for the football, and will compete for steps along with Dayne Kinniard and Tabarius Peterson.

No matter what happens with the D-Line, the Cardinals should feel good about the returning talent in the linebacker corps. It's a group that is a little bit undersized by ACC standards, but that allows them to do things a little bit differently than other defenses. Three of the top four tackles from last season reside in this unit, including inside linebackers C.J. Avery and Dorian Etheridge, as well as outside 'backer Rodjay Burns. I'm a huge fan of Burns, a former Ohio State cornerback who eventually made the switch to linebacker. He bulked up to fit the position more naturally, but still offers a lot of speed and explosiveness for the position. Burns is a disruptive presence (11 tackles for loss) that can also use his natural coverage skills to make things happen. Avery and Etheridge are also pretty versatile for their position, both proving themselves in run support and showing coverage abilities. Avery had six pass deflections, while Etheridge contributed five. Keep an eye on outside linebacker Monty Montgomery as well. The former JUCO transfer might not start, but he led the team in sacks a season ago.

There is progress to made in the back-end as well, although the Cardinals can feel good about the direction the unit is heading in. Louisville's pass defense took some major leaps in 2019, but still struggled with consistency and creating turnovers; they had just seven interceptions on the year. With a ton of depth and experience back, this could be one of the most improved units in the ACC. The likely starting cornerbacks are juniors Chandler Jones and Anthony Johnson. The pair of them have appeared in 48 total games during their respective UL tenures, with Jones having the talent to be an All-Conference player. He was sixth on the team with 50 tackles in 2019, and he also notched ten pass deflections. Also returning are a pair of safeties in Isaiah Hayes and Jack Fagot. Hayes began his career at Arizona before making the trek to the ACC, and he appeared able to acclimate to the defense well. Fagot could be in store for a breakout 2020 campaign; the rangy defender picked off Trevor Lawrence last fall, and can make plays all over the field. He's waited his turn in this UL secondary, but should start this season.

The defense was a complete mess when Scott Satterfield and this staff took over, and it will take more than just a year or two to completely turn things around. However, the group is making progress at nearly every level, and the trajectory for 2020 is looking up. There is experience throughout the defense, and significantly more depth than they had last fall. Now, if they can just find a way to create more turnovers, this unit could continue to climb up the totem pole in the ACC.

Special Teams: The graduation of placekicker Blanton Creque leaves Ryan Chalifoux as the favorite at the position for this next fall. He attempted three field goals a year ago, making one, while also going 22-25 on extra points. Punter is also a concern, as Mason King departs after averaging nearly 43 yards per punt in '19. The good news is that the return game has a lot of potential, but there is still work to be done for ST Coordinator Stu Holt.

Bottom Line: The reality of the ACC Atlantic right now is that nobody can match Clemson, but Louisville has the tools to at least come close. Their collection of offensive playmakers is second in the conference only to the Tigers, and the defense should continue to take the steps it needs to take in 2020. The big concern for Satterfield is not experiencing the "sophomore slump"; plenty of head coaches have had smashing debuts at their respective schools before things fell a little flat in Year Two. I don't see that happening here; this program has a clear upward trajectory bend, and the schedule seems to set up nicely for them. Outside of a date with Clemson, their first month-and-a-half should be a relative breeze, which should get the momentum they need to finish off a back-half that includes dates with Notre Dame and Kentucky. I don't think the Cardinals are going to overtake Clemson, but 9-10 wins seems entirely doable with the talent that is returning in the 'Ville.

Team Projections
Projected Record: 8-4 (5-3 ACC)
Offensive MVP: WR Tutu Atwell
Defensive MVP: LB Rodjay Burns
Breakout Player of the Year: CB Chandler Jones
Impact Freshman: LB Kameron Wilson

Recruiting Breakdown
The Cardinals break in the No. 42 Class in the country, according to 247Sports. Satterfield and his staff have clearly put an emphasis on getting back into Georgia and Florida and competing for a wide variety of prospects. Three-star outside linebacker Kameron Wilson already looks like a college football player, but he could be heading for a redshirt with the depth Louisville has returning at the position. The same could be said for fellow three-star Lovie Jenkins, a safety out of Ocoee, Florida. Jenkins was once a Tennessee commit, before flipping to the Cards in December. In terms of immediate impact, look no further than a pair of junior college transfers in Yaya Diaby and Trevor Reid, both out of Georgia Military College. Diaby is a guy that really impressed me when I saw his tape; he's a fearless competitor who never quits on the play. The strong-side defensive end could see immediate snaps for a Louisville pass rush that could use a bump.


Five-Year Trend


* As of publishing, we still do not know the effect that COVID-19 will have on the 2020 college football season beyond cancelled spring practice. It seems highly likely that there will be no fans or a shortened season, at the very least. This preview is operating under the optimistic assumption there will be a season, and even if it is delayed, teams will be able to get a full, 12-game schedule in.