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| Dylan Sampson, Tennessee |
Current Picks Record: 56-32
Upsets: 4-8
Superdogs: 5-3
(#7) Tennessee Volunteers @ (#12) Georgia Bulldogs
Line: Georgia -9.5
O/U: 47.5
Georgia is facing down unfamiliar territory as they welcome Tennessee to town this weekend: the possibility of a third regular season loss and a likely elimination from the College Football Playoff. It has moved into must-win for the Bulldogs, but with the Volunteers on a Playoff quest of their own, it should be quite the battle in Athens on Saturday night.
Carson Beck entered the 2024 campaign as a Heisman frontrunner and likely first-round NFL Draft selection, but the veteran quarterback has had pronounced struggles in recent weeks. He's now thrown an interception in four straight games, including three each against Texas and Florida. They aren't a result of bad luck either, such as a tipped pass or receiver drops - they have been terrible decisions, trying to fit the ball in tight windows against SEC defenses. It's fair to wonder where his head is at as he preps for another important game, against another turnover-hungry defense. Georgia doesn't need him to be throwing for 400 yards and five touchdowns a game, what they need is for him to make smart decisions and take care of the ball, which just hasn't happened in the big moments this fall. To be fair to Beck, the supporting cast hasn't quite been at Georgia standards. They've lacked a true go-to weapon on the outside, although Dominic Lovett and Arian Smith have proven to be their most reliable, and the backfield has been hit by injuries, with Trevor Etienne ruled out for this contest. The offensive line has also taken their lumps on the year, which has forced Beck into uncomfortable situations he's clearly not used to. But, if the Bulldogs are to get back on track, they need their quarterback to play with more confidence. I wonder if they'll look to get him a rhythm early with shorter, easier throws and look to incorporate screens into the offense. He's still going to have to make some throws down-the-field, but that should help him get into a groove and nullify an aggressive Tennessee pass rush. Freshman Nate Frazier and do-it-all Dillon Bell should also be counted on heavily with Etienne's absence. They're going to need to carve up some yardage against a strong Volunteer front, and use up some clock to get their defense a rest going the other way. It's no easy task against one of the best defensive fronts in the SEC, but the Bulldogs have won out in these types of games before, and will try for a repeat of that same formula in this one.
Tennessee has had their share of offensive struggles in much the same vein as Georgia, quite the surprise given Josh Heupel's reputation for having high-octane offenses. Sophomore quarterback Nico Iamaleava has had flashes, but he hasn't taken off the way most expected when he was handed control of the offense heading into the season. And now, his status is uncertain for this one after he left last week's Mississippi State game with a head injury. Earlier in the week it sounded likely he was going to play, but the mood has seemingly shifted around him over the last few days. If he's not able to go, Tennessee will turn to senior Gaston Moore, who came on in relief last weekend and threw a total of eight passes. I suspect Nico will try his best to go, but if not, the Volunteer offense is likely to become all about the ground-and-pound, with tailback Dylan Sampson set to lead the charge. Sampson has been a pleasant surprise, one of the big reasons the Volunteers are seventh in the country, and he's evolved into a true workhorse for this team. That could create quite the matchup, as Georgia's defensive front, while inconsistent, remains among the best in the nation. The Bulldogs don't always show up but when they do, they look much in the same vein as the dominant groups that led this defense in the late 2010s and early 2020s. Jalon Walker, Mykel Williams, and Chaz Chambliss should all be ready to go - look no further than their play in the Texas game as a reminder that this defensive front can still take over games when they're playing well.
While is not a true Playoff elimination game considering Tennessee only has one loss, it's hard to imagine Georgia finding a way to sneak in with three losses. But, I don't suspect that's something Kirby Smart and the 'Dawgs are going to have to think about just yet. Despite the struggles and even after a flat performance last weekend, I think they're the right choice here. With Nico's status in question and with this being in Athens, this one trends to Georgia.
The Pick: Georgia, 24 Tennessee, 20
(#23) Missouri Tigers @ (#21) South Carolina Gamecocks
Line: South Carolina -14
O/U: 41.5
Without context, one would imagine Missouri would be the favorite at South Carolina this weekend at 7-2. But, it's obvious Vegas isn't super high on the Tigers, thanks in large part to the fact starting quarterback Brady Cook is still likely to be out for this one and, more importantly, they've gotten blown out in the last two ranked games they've played in against Texas A&M and Alabama. That leaves South Carolina as the favorite, and looking to improve to 7-3 as they welcome the Tigers.
The loss of Brady Cook is significant for Missouri, even if the veteran quarterback wasn't having the type of encore to his big 2023 they had hoped for. Backup Drew Pyne may be experienced, but he simply is not good enough to be an SEC quarterback at this level. He did manage to throw for three touchdowns against Oklahoma last week, but the rest of the stat sheet says it all, as he completed just over 50% of his throws and finished with 143 yards. Missouri does have other weapons that can alleviate some of the pressure off Pyne, including Luther Burden III and Theo Wease Jr. out on the perimeter, but the receiver corps and passing game as a whole just has not found a consistent rhythm all season. The offense has also taken a hit with Nate Noel clearly not 100 percent, as he's been limited to just 26 carries over their last three games. And then you add on the fact the offensive line has also had their fair share of struggles, a real concern against a South Carolina defensive front that is among the best in the SEC, it's hard to imagine how Missouri is going to move the football. They survived against Oklahoma last weekend, but that was against an offense going through similar woes, and had more to do with the defense putting them in great field position. As long as the Gamecocks take care of the ball and don't turn the ball over, you have to imagine they should be able to stymy this Tiger offense.
This has not been a South Carolina offense that is going to come out and be putting up 50 points a game on a regular basis, but they have a clear understanding of what they want do and are very methodical in how they do it. LaNorris Sellers has had his fair share of ups-and-downs, but the dual-threat quarterback has put South Carolina in position to win football games, and his rushing ability keeps defenses consistently on their toes. He's been helped by the ultra-reliable Joshua Simon at tight end, while the rest of this Gamecock receiver corps is able to do just enough to open up this ground game. Raheim Sanders has been a consistent threat out of the backfield, both running the ball and catching as a receiver. He won't bust open huge runs very often, but averages over five yards per carry, and his 10 rushing touchdowns have been the fuel to this Gamecock offense for much of the year. This will be a little bit of a different test for Missouri than they've seen in the past. The Gamecocks are a hard-nosed, throwback football team on this side of the ball and although they look different, it reminds me a bit of what A&M has looked like for a big chunk of the fall. Considering Missouri surrendered 41 points to the Aggies, that's an awfully good sign for South Carolina. The Tigers have been playing better on this side of the ball despite some goose eggs in their most important games, but I do wonder if they have enough defensively to hold down this South Carolina team.
The Gamecocks have been a pleasant surprise - they are not just 6-3, but could have easily found a way to win in games against LSU and Alabama, and would be a Playoff frontrunner at 8-1. They just feel like a team playing much better ball than Missouri at the moment, and with the Tigers dealing with injuries, this should be a comfortable win for the Gamecocks.
The Pick: South Carolina, 27 Missouri, 17
Other Picks
(#1) Oregon Ducks @ Wisconsin Badgers -- Camp Randall should be rocking in preparation for the best team in the country - for the first half. The Ducks are just too good up-and-down this roster, and Wisconsin doesn't have enough offensively to overcome.
The Pick: Oregon, 35 Wisconsin, 18
(#3) Texas Longhorns @ Arkansas Razorbacks -- You do wonder if Texas could get caught sleeping in their next two games as they look ahead to reigniting their rivalry with Texas A&M at the end of November. But I'm just not sure Arkansas has what's needed in the tank to be the one to pull off the upset.
The Pick: Texas, 42 Arkansas, 24
(#20) Clemson Tigers @ Pittsburgh Panthers -- For some reason, Pittsburgh has been the team that has given Clemson the most problems in the ACC in recent memory. However, with the Panthers fresh off two consecutive bad showings in back-to-back weeks, it's hard to imagine them winning here.
The Pick: Clemson, 34 Pittsburgh, 21
Arizona State Sun Devils @ (#16) Kansas State Wildcats -- An underrated matchup in the grand scheme of things, Arizona State should give the Wildcats a real challenge. Unfortunately, the fact Cam Skattebo still isn't 100 percent cripples their offense, and K-State should be ready in front of the home crowd.
The Pick: Kansas State, 23 Arizona State, 21
Upset: (#22) LSU Tigers @ Florida Gators -- This feels like a prime upset opportunity for the Gators. D.J. Lagway is projected to play after missing last week and UF gets a reeling LSU team in "The Swamp".
The Pick: Florida, 30 LSU, 28
Superdog (covers > 21 point spread) Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (+25.5) @ Auburn Tigers -- Louisiana-Monroe is in position to make a bowl under head man Bryant Vincent and while they may not have enough to pull off an upset on the road in SEC territory, they are good enough to cover this large spread against a struggling Tiger offense.
The Pick: Auburn, 27 Louisiana-Monroe, 10
Lock of the Week: Illinois Fighting Illini (-2) vs. Michigan State Spartans -- Losses to Oregon and Minnesota knocked the Illini out of the Top 25, but this remains an extremely capable football team. I suspect they'll be able to turn over Michigan State's Aidan Chiles multiple times, and be able to outlast the Spartans.
The Pick: Illinois, 24 Michigan State, 13
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