Scouting the Contenders 2023: Purdue Boilermakers

Matt Painter, Purdue

As March Madness slowly inches closer and closer, "Scouting the Contenders" takes a look at some of the nation's best teams in a chaotic race, scouts their strengths and weaknesses, and takes a best guess on just how far they could go in the NCAA Tournament. We begin with the nation's current No. 1 team, the one-loss Purdue Boilermakers.

Track Record

• 21-1 overall record, 10-1 Big Ten
• Wins over Gonzaga (84-66), Duke (75-56), Marquette (75-70), @ Michigan State (64-63)
• Lone loss to Rutgers (65-64)
• No. 5 in KenPom rankings

Scouting Report

During a season where few teams have been able to stay at the top of the rankings for long, Purdue has been a constant. Matt Painter's Boilermakers are off to one of their best starts in school history, with a 21-1 overall record that includes just a heartbreaking defeat at the hands of Rutgers. With several weeks perched at the No. 1 overall ranking, Purdue seems like the prohibitive National Title favorite as we transition into the final months of the season. But, can they rid themselves of their recent March demons and finish the job this time around?

Strengths

Balance, balance, balance... Painter has established himself as one of the best in the game in roster construction, quite an impressive quality during this chaotic era of college basketball. The Boilermakers check just about every box you could want: they have a star big man (Zach Edey), a deep backcourt that can shoot it, and capable wings that provide plenty of versatility. They feature an efficient offense, one that doesn't often blow the doors off opponents, but rarely goes through the long cold stretches that often plague other teams at this level. Defensively, it's a prototypical Painter team, with a smoothering on-ball perimeter defense and elite rim protector underneath. It's rare to see a team with this much balance on both ends of the court, and an obvious reason why they're so incredibly consistent. The Boilermakers show up in every contest, whether it's a big-time bout with a Top 10 foe, or a weekday road game against a team at the bottom of the standings. That's a difficult thing in this sport, and part of the reason why they've outpaced just about every team they've seen in 2022-2023.

The enigma that is Zach Edey... A Big Ten team with an elite big is not uncommon, even in the modern world of guard-play and pace-and-space. That's particularly true in West Lafayette, a program that seems to churn out productive giants at an unrelenting pace. However, Zach Edey truly is a special talent, the likely National Player of the Year. The numbers don't lie: he's averaging 21.4 PPG, 13.0 RPG, and 2.3 BPG, while shooting over 60% from the field. But, it goes even beyond the numbers, the attention he brings in the post completely opens up this offense and forces opposing defenses to completely shift their strategy, night-in and night-out. He moves incredibly well for his size at 7'4" and may be the best rim protector we've seen in a long time, probably since Anthony Davis in the early 2010s. He blocks shots and disrupts everything at the rim, but does so without fouling. Despite playing over 30 minutes per game and averaging over two blocks per game, he averages just 1.6 fouls per contest. It's hard to quantify just how insane that is. In fact, I can't remember that type of defensive dominance in my lifetime. 

They do the little things... Painter-coached teams always have the fundamentals down, and that is definitely the case with this current edition. They set hard screens, execute their cuts and get open, and play excellent team basketball. One thing in particular I appreciate? How well they shoot the ball at the free-throw line. Purdue ranks 19th nationally in free throw percentage at 76.% and there's not an obvious player to foul late in games. In this sport, where so many games are won at the margins, that's a major strength that will be especially vital down the stretch. As a fan of the worst free-throw shooting team in the country (the mighty Gophers at 59.2%) it's one thing that's always stood out to me about Painter's teams.

Weaknesses

The freshman-led backcourt... Fletcher Loyer and Braden Smith both entered this season as prized in-state recruits who were expected to contribute, but I'm not sure even the most optimistic Purdue fans expected them to be this good, this early. Loyer has taken on more of the scoring load, second behind Edey in points per game, but Smith is the real engine behind this Boilermaker offense. He's an excellent facilitator, consistent defender, and he shoots the ball well from everywhere on the court. The pair has been a great story, but it's fair to wonder whether they can hold up in the bright lights of the NCAA Tournament. There's a completely different atmosphere once you get to the sport's biggest stage, even for a group that has been playing in the rugged Big Ten. How do these freshmen handle the spotlight? It is important to note, despite the fact this pair doesn't bring much experience to the table, Purdue isn't devoid of veteran leadership in the backcourt. Guys like Ethan Morton and Brandon Newman have played in plenty of big spots, which helps soften the impact of this particular problem area.

Do they have the big-shot maker? College basketball legends are made in March. Simply go back through the sport's history just this millennium; players like Kemba Walker, Mario Chalmers, Anthony Davis, and many more have used the bright lights of the NCAA Tournament to forever go down in college basketball lore. Even among teams that typically don't have one signature star, there's usually one or two big-shot makers that can carry their teams through the huge moments. Think of Christian Braun or Ochai Agbaji on last year's Kansas or Jared Butler and Davion Mitchell on Baylor as recent examples. Looking at this Purdue team, do they have that one guy? Edey may be the NPOY frontrunner and has made big shots, but he's not your prototypical late-game isolation scorer that can create off the dribble. Perhaps Smith or Loyer could take on that role, but that's not clear as it stands today. The Boilermakers may not necessarily need just one, but it's something I've wondered when watching this team. Go back to their lone defeat of the year, when Rutgers guard Cam Spencer hit a huge three with 14 seconds left. It felt like Purdue didn't have a player that could respond, and the last possession was ugly, a bunch of back-and-forth passes that didn't move the defense before a missed three from Brandon Newman, a career 37% shooter.

Those pesky March demons ... I've always felt that using past March Madness experiences to argue against the current version of a team is a weak one, but there's no denying that Purdue has some NCAA Tournaments demons to overcome. Painter is probably the nation's top active coach who hasn't reached a Final Four now that Mark Few has gone to a pair, something that has to be at the front of his mind. It's not fair to say the Boilermakers have been complete disappointments, considering they've been to the second weekend four times since 2016 and could have easily played in a Final Four in 2019, but they just haven't quite been able to get over the top. The last two NCAA Tournament appearances in particular have felt incredibly deflating; losing to Saint Peter's with Jaden Ivey and three-seed billing felt even worse than the first round upset in 2021. Painter and this Purdue program are going to reach a Final Four at some point, he's too good of a coach not to. But, the first one always feels like the toughest.

The Verdict

The Boilermakers are the betting favorite to take it all in Houston this spring, which makes sense. Not only have they built an impressive resume, they've watched many other top contenders drop like flies, including an Alabama team that was thumped this past weekend by unranked Oklahoma. In a lot of ways, they check all the boxes you want for a National Title contender. They have a star player leading the way, a proven, well-respected head coach, ample experience, and depth. But, there's just something about this team that's holding me back from making a full-throated endorsement. Maybe it's the young guards, maybe it's the way they play, maybe it's just the fact we haven't seen this program play in a Final Four in four decades. Something about them as a true National Title favorite feels a bit off. That doesn't mean I'm against Purdue, I wouldn't be shocked if I still have them going deep by the time brackets drop. But let's put it this way: if this was a hand of poker, I'd fold instead of going "all-in" in the way I would have with past No. 1 or 2 teams at this point in the year.

Coaching Carousel 2022-23: Breaking Down Every Power Five Hire of the Offseason

Deion Sanders, Colorado

College football coaching has always been a turbulent business, but it feels like it's been taken up a notch in the last several years. The money being thrown around the sport these days means programs are more willing to pay up to afford a new head coach (or just to get rid of one), creating a hectic coaching carousel. With things settled, at least for the time being, it seems like the perfect time to recap another busy offseason of coaching changes, one that will have major impacts on the college football landscape moving forward.

 

Arizona State Sun Devils

Out: Herm Edwards

In: Kenny Dillingham, Oregon OC

Despite being just 32 years of age, Kenny Dillingham has long been considered a rising name in the collegiate coaching ranks. After several years in high school coaching and as an offensive assistant at Arizona State, his big breakthrough came during his time at Memphis. Under Mike Norvell, Dillingham rose from a grad assistant to the team's offensive coordinator, a position he parlayed into the same role at Auburn. Since, he's had pit stops at Florida State and most recently, Oregon, where he helped turn Bo Nix into a superstar. Now, Dillingham gets a chance to take over at his alma mater, a program he knows well and has emotional ties to. It's a logical next move for Arizona State after the disastrous end to the Herm Edwards experiment, but the program is in a tough spot. They were hit hard by transfers the last several off-seasons, recruiting has fallen off, and their chief rival, Arizona, looks to be on their way up. Even so, this is a program long considered to be a sleeping giant out West, at a massive institution with plenty of talent in the pipeline. Dillingham seems like the right guy to bring them into the modern era, but how quickly he responds to the unique challenges facing the program will likely determine his long-term success.

Auburn Tigers

Out: Bryan Harsin

In: Hugh Freeze, Liberty HC

Bryan Harsin was a strange hire by Auburn in the first place, and the former Boise State head man lasted less than two seasons on The Plains before he was unceremoniously dumped. In his place, Auburn has turned to a familiar face in the SEC West, one-time Ole Miss head coach Hugh Freeze. Freeze became a controversial figure in the college football world due to his demise in Oxford, but he quickly rebounded at Liberty. Helped by a former Auburn quarterback, Malik Willis, Freeze went 34-15 in Lynchburg, including four consecutive bowl trips. There's no questioning his coaching chops, but has he learned from past incidents off-the-field? Auburn is a job with unlimited potential, with a tradition of success and loads of resources, but it's also one that can chew up and spit you out. So far, Freeze seems to be looking for stability by bringing in veteran assistants, including former Tulsa head coach Phillip Montgomery as OC, but the roster remains in flux due to a wave of transfers. Recruiting will be the name of the game here; when you're competing Alabama in the state and the entirety of the SEC West, you will need elite talent. Freeze brought in plenty of big names during his time at Ole Miss and Liberty, can he do the same with Auburn?

Colorado Buffaloes

Out: Karl Dorrell

In: Deion Sanders, Jackson State HC

Since the turn of the millennium, Colorado has mainly been an afterthought on the national stage. They've had just two double-digit win seasons in that span and have spent plenty of time floundering at the bottom of the Big 12 and Pac-12. After an 1-11 mark this fall, the Buffaloes went out and made arguably the splashiest hire of this year's coaching carousel, bringing in Deion Sanders from Jackson State. "Primetime" went 27-6 during his time with Jackson State and brought in elite-level talent, namely the former No. 1 recruit in the nation, Travis Hunter. Sanders has come into Boulder and immediately injected a different energy into the program, but the reality is that this will be a stark transition. Going from an HBCU playing in the SWAC to Power Five ball is a significant leap and Colorado is not an easy job. While the administration appears ready to make adjustments to the stringent academic standards that have hamstrung past football coaches, this program is not exactly in a recruiting hotbed and the Pac-12 appears to be on the upswing after several lean years. Speaking of the Pac-12, the league's future is completely uncertain, which complicates the Colorado job in the long-term. Sure, Deion likely is not here for the long haul, but I'm not under the impression this is going to be a quick turnaround. This was the worst Power Five team in the country by a wide margin in 2022 and even if the roster is overhauled, it will take time. That doesn't mean this won't work out, and Deion was worth the risk for a Colorado program that needed a different direction, but I don't envision a lot of wins right away like there was at Jackson State.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

Out: Geoff Collins

In: Brent Key, interim HC

It was always going to be a tough rebuild for Geoff Collins as he brought Georgia Tech into the modern era and away from the triple-option. But, the reality is that no head coach is going to survive going 10-28 in the year 2022, and the Yellow Jackets decided to move on. Instead of going with a flashy hire or taking a swing at a Group of Five head coach, Georgia Tech opted to stay close to home by promoting interim Brent Key to full-time head coach. Key is an alum who played for George O'Leary, then coached under him for a decade at UCF. After a brief stint with Alabama, he returned to his alma mater on Collins' staff and despite struggles, he earned a reputation as a great developer of offensive line talent. Key went 4-4 following Collins' midseason firing and has stabilized the program. He's not going to bring the flash that Collins did when he was brought on, but he's a strong hire. Key understands the program and knows what they need to compete. He'll have plenty of talent available to him in the loaded Atlanta area, and the school appears to be have a renewed commitment to the sport. It's not a hire that will get as much attention as others, but I believe this to be one of the more underrated hires of this carousel.

Louisville Cardinals

Out: Scott Satterfield

In: Jeff Brohm, Purdue HC

Scott Satterfield's relationship with Louisville administration and university power-brokers seemed to be on the ropes for awhile, leading to an unsurprising decision for him to take a new gig at Cincinnati. Satterfield helped the program recover from the brutal ending to Bobby Petrino's second tenure, but he was never able to develop them into a legit ACC Atlantic contender. Following his departure, the Cardinals turned to a familiar face to replace him, in Purdue's Jeff Brohm. Brohm played at Louisville in the early 1990s and previously served on their coaching staff from 2003-2008. He did a great job at Purdue, taking over a program mired in mediocrity for years before going 36-34, including a division title this fall. He had previously said no to the Louisville job before Satterfield took it in 2018, but this was different. Whether Brohm felt he had reached his ceiling at Purdue or just felt now was the time to make the jump, it's a big win for the Cards. 

Nebraska Cornhuskers

Out: Scott Frost

In: Matt Rhule, former Carolina Panthers HC

The long-drawn out Scott Frost saga concluded in quick order this fall, with Nebraska deciding to move on after an embarrassing loss to Georgia Southern. Frost seemed like the perfect, home-run hire, but the 'Huskers lost close game after close game and were not able to build any type of consistency. Firing their coach faster than any other Power Five team in the country, Nebraska had more time to conduct this search and in the end, chose Matt Rhule as their next head man. Rhule became a hot coaching candidate after success at Temple and turning around Baylor, but his short stint in the NFL was less than ideal. He went just 11-27 with the Carolina Panthers and was unceremoniously dumped early in 2022. Rhule never seemed like an NFL coach; his ability to develop talent the way he did always felt like a college coaching trait, and he's more of a program builder than X's and O's guru. Nebraska needed a coach that can bring in the right type of talent and elevate it, but I do have questions about Rhule. He wasn't at either Temple or Baylor long enough to see if he could sustain a program over the long-term and in both positions, he was recruiting against schools vastly different than he will at Nebraska. He's a good football coach, but the reality around this job is that it's a difficult one in the modern context. There are outsized expectations in comparison to the product they can realistically put in the field and it's tough to get players to come to Lincoln in the new era of NIL. 

Purdue Boilermakers

Out: Jeff Brohm (took Louisville job)

In: Ryan Walters, Illinois DC

Jeff Brohm's decision to return to his alma mater wasn't particularly shocking, but left Purdue scrambling for a replacement fairly late in the coaching carousel. In response, Boilermaker brass took a major swing at a young up-and-comer, bringing in 36-year old Ryan Walters as their next head man. It's been an amazingly quick ascent for Walters, as he played college football as late as 2008 before making the transition to coaching. He bounced around before making an impression at his last two stops, Missouri and Illinois, where he served as defensive coordinator. Leading the Illini defense this past fall, Walters' group became known for its discipline and physical nature, finishing second in the country in points allowed. He earned national attention as a Broyles Award finalist and despite the Illini's plans to keep him in Champaign, it wasn't shocking he got a head coaching job. With that being said, this is a significant jump; Walters has never been a head coach at any level and now makes the leap straight to Power Five football. It's likely his program will differ greatly from the one Brohm ran, which was about airing it out offensively and playing a bend-don't-break defensive style. Landing a well-known offensive coordinator in Graham Harrell helps, but this hire feels like a coin flip to me. It certainly wouldn't shock me if it works out, but there is clearly ample risk involved.

Stanford Cardinal

Out: David Shaw

In: Troy Taylor, Sacramento State HC

There's nothing easy about moving on from your winningest coach in program history, an alum who guided the program to some of their most successful years of all-time. Yet, it certainly felt like David Shaw's run at Stanford was heading in an ugly direction; the Cardinal capped off two consecutive 3-9 seasons and hadn't won double-digit games since 2016. Recruiting had stalled, roster turnover was high, and the energy in Palo Alto felt off. Shaw decided his time was over, resigning one day after Stanford's season-ending loss to BYU. His decision allows the Cardinal to go in a brand new direction, and they decided it was Sacramento State's Troy Taylor who would be ushering in the new era. Taylor has long been a regular on the West Coast football scene, coaching in the high school ranks and throughout colleges in the region. He served as Utah's offensive coordinator for two years before taking over at Sacramento State, leading the Hornets a 30-8 overall record and 23-1 mark inside the Big Sky. His aggressive, up-tempo offense will be a welcome change for Stanford, whose offensive philosophy seemed stuck in the early 2010s for too long. However, there are external factors in play here that are likely to decide just how effective Taylor will be with the Cardinal. They've been hurt, perhaps more than any other program in college football, by the Early Signing Period. Due to their stringent academic requirements, Stanford has oftentimes been unable to get recruits in during the early period, crippling their recruiting. Stanford's graduate school also has notoriously difficult entry requirements, meaning graduate transfers regularly leave, robbing the Cardinal of key veterans. Is the university willing to change in order to help their football program survive and compete? It's hard to imagine any coach building a long-term winner here in the NIL and transfer portal era the way it is currently constructed.

Wisconsin Badgers

Out: Paul Chryst

In: Luke Fickell, Cincinnati HC

Wisconsin's firing of Paul Chryst came as a major surprise in many ways, but also felt like a strategic one by Badger decision-makers. The program had begun to feel a bit lifeless under Chryst, and Wisconsin looked like they had his hand-picked successor picked out. That was supposed to be defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard, a Wisconsin alum who had quickly become one of the hottest defensive names on the market. The logic went like this: Leonhard would get a change to guide the program through the conclusion of the 2022 campaign and assuming everything went as planned, he would take over long-term. That logic went out the window, with the Badgers instead pulling off a stunner, convincing Luke Fickell to leave his longtime post at Cincinnati and make the move north to Madison. It did feel like a bit of a middle finger to Leonhard, but the reality is that the Badgers landed arguably the nation's top Group of Five coach in Fickell. Early on, Fickell has looked like he will move Wisconsin away from the ground-and-pound approach and instead move them into the modern offensive era, bringing on North Carolina's Phil Longo as OC. That feels like a wise approach, but one that may take some getting used to in Madison. For so long, Wisconsin's run-oriented offense and gritty defense has defined the program, going all the way back to the Barry Alvarez years. Are they going to be able to make the transition, particularly in a conference going through an upheaval of its own, with UCLA and USC on the way? It's a fair question, but it's hard to argue that the Badgers were one of the major winners of the carousel by landing Fickell.

Group of Five Hires to Watch

Cincinnati: Scott Satterfield (Lousiville HC) -- Scott Satterfield entered the offseason looking for a change of scenery, and will move forward with Cincinnati after taking the job vacated by Luke Fickell. Although this is technically a Power Five to Group of Five move, Cincinnati will be moving to the Big 12 next season and this job has always had loads of potential, situated right in fertile recruiting grounds.

Florida Atlantic: Tom Herman (former Texas HC) -- Things didn't work out for Tom Herman at Texas, but it's no surprise he's getting another opportunity in the collegiate ranks. He's a superb offensive mind and known as a tireless recruiter who should be able to elevate Florida Atlantic's floor. He should also benefit from lesser expectations away from the drama and politics of being Texas head man.

Kent State: Kenni Burns (Minnesota RB coach) -- Looking for a quick rising name that could be manning a Power Five program shortly? Kenni Burns makes the jump to Kent State after spending years as an assistant under P.J. Fleck at Minnesota, and should be in high demand in short order. His work with the Minnesota RB room speaks for itself, and he also spent time at FCS juggernaut North Dakota State.

Liberty: Jamey Chadwell (Coastal Carolina HC) -- One of the more surprising hirings of the 2022-23 coaching carousel comes at Liberty. Many assumed Jamey Chadwell would be in line for a Power Five job after another strong season at Coastal Carolina, but he instead opted to replace Hugh Freeze at Liberty. This is a spot that has proven to be a good stepping stone and there's no shortage of talent, so it wouldn't be surprising if this is a short-term solution.

UAB: Trent Dilfer (former NFL QB, HS coach) -- Bill Clark's surprise retirement right before the start of the 2022 season left UAB a bit unprepared, although interim Bryant Vincent scrapped together a 6-6 campaign. Instead of making Vincent the head man or going with a young up-and-comer, UAB took a shocking swing with Trent Dilfer, a former Super Bowl winning QB who had been head coach at Lipscomb Academy (Tennessee) since 2019. I'm all for outside-the-box hires, but this was a major risk; Dilfer has never coached at any level of college ball.

Big Ten Power Rankings 2022-23: Edition 2

Terrence Shannon Jr., Illinois

Records updated: morning of 1/19/2022*

 1. Purdue Boilermakers (17-1 overall, 6-1 Big Ten)

Previous Rank: 1

While the rest of the Big Ten has beaten themselves up over the course of the early schedule, Purdue has been able to stay mainly above the fray. They come in at third nationally and have just one loss to their credit, a heartbreaker at home to Rutgers. Big man Zach Edey continues to be one of the main frontrunners for the National Player of the Year award, but the real fuel behind Purdue's success in 2022-23 has been their young, but talented, backcourt. Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer may be freshmen, but the duo has been arguably the best guard combo in the conference this season. Loyer has emerged as the scoring threat, averaging 13.4 PPG and gifted with unlimited range, while Smith has proven to be an adept playmaker and active defender. If that duo can keep it going over the course of a rugged league schedule, the Boilermakers won't just go home with a conference title, they can seriously challenge for a National Title.

2. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (13-5 overall, 5-2 Big Ten)

Previous Rank: 10

Rutgers has evolved into a consistent winner under head coach Steve Pikiell, but they've been more of a pest than serious Big Ten Title contender the last several seasons. That has changed in 2022-23, as the Scarlet Knights are second only to Purdue in the league standings and currently own the tiebreaker over the Boilermakers. It's been an impressive stretch from the Scarlet Knights, winners of seven of eight, and the upcoming slate in late January seems as favorable as you can get in this league. They need Paul Mulcahy and Caleb McConnell to get back to full strength after being limited early on, but Cam Spencer has proven he can handle the offensive load. Spencer, a transfer from Loyola-Maryland, isn't just the team's leading scorer, he's been an absolute demon from deep, shooting 47% from three.

3. Illinois Fighting Illini (13-5 overall, 4-3 Big Ten)

Previous Rank: 5

Is there a team that better epitomizes the chaos and strangeness of this year's Big Ten than the Illinois Fighting Illini? They had a rollercoaster of a non-conference, had a couple of bad conference losses, but have since reeled off four straight victories. The decision from hyped freshman Skyy Clark to leave the program midseason originally looked like a sign things were set to go off the rails, but the Illini have looked significantly better without him. Freshman Jayden Epps has looked like the real deal helping to steer the offense and Terrence Shannon Jr. and Matthew Mayer appear to be settling in. They look very scary at this point in the season, and their next four home games are extremely winnable.

4. Wisconsin Badgers (12-5 overall, 4-3 Big Ten)

Previous Rank: 2

Wisconsin looked like a potential conference frontrunner when they jumped out to a 3-0 start in the league, but they've fallen back to Earth since. A close win at the Kohl Center over Penn State stopped a three-game skid, one that included a horrifying loss to Indiana in Bloomington. The offense remains underwhelming, but getting Tyler Wahl back to 100 percent will be huge. He left the Minnesota game early and proceeded to miss their next three before scoring 10 against PSU. The senior is not only their most consistent offensive weapon, his energy and hard work goes well behind the box score.

5. Michigan State Spartans (12-6 overall, 4-3 Big Ten)

Previous Rank: 8

This year's Michigan State team doesn't seem like the group that's going to deliver Tom Izzo his first Big Ten Title since 2018-19, but they've proven they are a serious threat in the conference. A recent two-game losing streak has been frustrating, but the Spartans reeled off seven straight victories beforehand. One of the losses was also to Purdue on Martin Luther King Day, a heartbreaking defeat that occurred at the hands of a late layup from Zach Edey. Tyson Walker and A.J. Hoggard are a formidable backcourt, but it's the growth of Joey Hauser that has really stuck out to me. He's taken his scoring up a notch and is playing with much more confidence, giving the Spartans a versatile, consistent threat.

6. Michigan Wolverines (10-7 overall, 4-2 Big Ten)

Previous Rank: 6

Juwan Howard's club remains a confusing one as we trek through January. They have some bad losses, punctuated by their defeat at the hands of Central Michigan, but have gotten off to a 4-2 start in the Big Ten. A lot of that can be accredited to a pretty soft schedule up to this point, but the Wolverines still deserve credit; it's not easy to get any wins in this league. Hunter Dickinson remains a threat to win Big Ten Player of the Year, but the supporting cast must develop consistency. Jett Howard, Kobe Bufkin, and Dug McDaniel can be a maddening trio at times, but they bring plenty of playmaking punch and seem to be figuring out their respective roles with the absence of Jaelin Llewellyn. 

7. Northwestern Wildcats (12-5 overall, 3-3 Big Ten)

Previous Rank: 12

Northwestern has been one of the league's pleasant surprises over the early conference slate, with impressive road victories over Michigan State and Indiana and a home win over Illinois. Their veteran guard play has fueled their success, with Chase Audige and Boo Buie leading the way, but I still wonder if they have the bigs to last as a contender in the conference. Beyond combo forward Robbie Beran and center Matthew Nicholson, they're incredibly thin on the frontline, a real problem in a league defined by their low-post stars. The Wildcats have been able to make do just fine so far, but this is probably their ceiling at this point.

8. Iowa Hawkeyes (12-6 overall, 4-3 Big Ten)

Previous Rank: 9

Iowa is another team that's had a wacky season so far, and it's anyone's guess how they'll wrap up the regular season. Things were looking dark, with a three-game losing streak that included a shocking loss to Eastern Illinois, but the Hawkeyes have won four since. Three of the four were at home, but it still indicates Iowa could be turning a corner as they look towards a brutal upcoming road slate. Finding a quality complement for Kris Murray has been the primary challenge, but could the emergence of Payton Sandfort create a strong final two-and-a-half months? Sandfort has been on fire as of late, averaging 20 points per in their final three games. If he can keep it up, Iowa's potent offense should be able to keep firmly cemented as an NCAA Tournament team.

9. Penn State Nittany Lions (12-6 overall, 3-4 Big Ten)

Previous Rank: 11

Micah Shrewsberry had a quality debut campaign in State College, but his program looks like they may be ahead of schedule in Year Two. The Nittany Lions are off to a quality 3-4 start in the Big Ten and even in their losses, they've looked very competitive. With that being said, Penn State has lost three of four, indicating there's work to be done if this team wants to enjoy a postseason trip. This feels like a team that's going to live or die by their guards; when they're on, this team could challenge just about anyone in the league, but when they're not, it's probably a lower-tier group in the conference. Jalen Pickett has proven to be All-Big Ten worthy, but others need to step up if the Nittany Lions are to get back on track.

10. Indiana Hoosiers (11-6 overall, 2-4 Big Ten)

Previous Rank: 3

There were hopes of a conference title entering the season in Bloomington. Six games into league play, those hopes have all but evaporated. The Hoosiers have probably been the league's greatest disappointment early on, but I'm still not ready to completely sell my stock. They remain one of the most talented teams in the Big Ten, with a bonafide 1-2 punch in Trayce Jackson-Davis and Jalen Hood-Schifino. It just feels like something is off in the locker room; the energy and execution on this team isn't there. It's going to take a tremendous coaching job from Mike Woodson to get this team back into the hunt in the conference. How he and this program battle through adversity will tell us a lot about whether he is the guy ready to return Indiana basketball to national relevance.

11. Maryland Terrapins (11-6 overall, 2-4 Big Ten)

Previous Rank: 7

The Kevin Willard era got off to a hot start in College Park, as the Terrapins won their first eight games of the season. Since then, it's been frustration after frustration, with Maryland losing six of their next nine. A pair of those victories came against mid-majors, Saint Peter's and UMBC, but the home win over Ohio State showed the Terrapins can still be a feisty out. However, the offense remains in a severe slump, only hitting 70 once in their last four. Jahmir Young has shown he can carry an offense, but the three-point shooting has been atrocious for most of the year. There's still time to figure things out, but this is quickly looking like the hot start was more of a mirage than the norm in Year One for Willard.

12. Nebraska Cornhuskers (10-9 overall, 3-5 Big Ten)

Previous Rank: 13

Nobody in Lincoln is throwing a parade over being 10-9 overall and 3-5 in the conference, but there shouldn't be any denying that this program is showing signs of life in Fred Hoiberg's fourth year. Their three conference victories are already nearing the high water mark for Big Ten wins under Hoiberg, which was previously four. And, it isn't just that; the 'Huskers have looked competent on both ends of the floor and have some really interesting pieces. The upcoming slate of games is manageable, meaning it wouldn't be crazy to see Nebraska continue to ascend these rankings.

13. Ohio State Buckeyes (10-8 overall, 2-5 Big Ten)

Previous Rank: 4

Since Chris Holtmann took over at Ohio State, the Buckeyes have been one of the most consistent programs in the Big Ten. They've won at least 20 games each of Holtmann's five seasons, and have advanced in the NCAA Tournament three times. But right now, it feels like the sky is falling in Columbus. They've lost five straight to push them to the bottom of the Big Ten standings, losses that have included a defeat at home to Minnesota and defeats on the road to Maryland and Nebraska. The good news is that all of the losses have been close, a good sign that these recent road bumps shouldn't last in the long-term. I firmly expect Holtmann to turn things around, but this team has to figure out how to close out games. They're simply too talented and Holtmann is too good of a coach for this to continue.

14. Minnesota Golden Gophers (7-9 overall, 1-5 Big Ten)

Previous Rank: 14

It's been a long season in Minneapolis, with the Gophers non-conference struggles lasting into the Big Ten schedule. They remain one of the youngest teams in the league and it's clear when you watch them play, with sloppy turnovers and bad free-throw shooting. With that being said, the freshmen have all shown potential and the late January - mid-February slate isn't terrible. If Jamison Battle can finally find his rhythm, there's still some hope for the Gophers to scrounge up a couple more league victories in Ben Johnson's second season.

2023 Way-Too-Early College Football Top 25

Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State

The 2022 college football season ended much the same way the 2021 one did: with Georgia crowned as National Champions. Now begins the longest offseason of sports, with eight grueling months until things kick back off in August. With so much time to go, why not get the offseason started by recklessly speculating about which teams will be in the hunt for the National Title next fall? With so much time between then and now, "way-too-early" rankings are more fun than serious analysis, but they do give us an indication on which teams, players, and storylines to watch over the coming months.

1. Georgia Bulldogs

When Kirby Smart was hired by his alma mater, conventional wisdom indicated it was only a matter of time before he got things rolling. With two consecutive National Titles under his belt, it seems fair to say that Smart and the Bulldogs have arrived. They've overtaken Alabama (for the time being) as the most feared program in the sport, an absolute machine that brings in blue-chip recruits and churns out NFL Draft selections. That story is unlikely to change much in 2023, particularly with one of the softest schedules in FBS. Stetson Bennett's storybook career may have come to a close Monday night, but both sides of the ball should remain loaded. Expect Carson Beck and Brock Vandagriff to duke it out for the starting quarterback role, with Daijuan Edwards and Kendall Milton set to flank them in the backfield. The pass-catchers will be loaded, spearheaded by the one of the nation's best players, tight end Brock Bowers, and ultra-reliable Ladd McConkey. On the other side of the ball, UGA is set to send a host of players off to the NFL, namely Jalen Carter, Nolan Smith, and Kelee Ringo, but do you really suspect any drop-off? The front seven will be incredibly fast, athletic, and deep, while Malaki Starks appears ready to be the next great Bulldog defensive back.

2. Ohio State Buckeyes

Ryan Day and Ohio State proved a lot of detractors wrong with an impressive performance in the semifinal, even if a missed field goal left them just short in upsetting Georgia. Next year's group may have the ingredients to actually overcome the 'Dawgs, assuming they can find a suitable replacement for C.J. Stroud. Kyle McCord is expected to step into the starting role, and will have no shortage of weapons at his disposal. Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka will the most feared wide receiver duo in the nation, and tight end Cade Stover is an underrated piece of the puzzle. TreVeyon Henderson should be 100 percent after battling injuries all 2022, and the defense took major strides in Year One under Jim Knowles. They could be even better next season, assuming J.T. Tuimoloau takes the next step and develops into the dominant pass rusher most expect him to.

3. Alabama Crimson Tide

Do we really think Nick Saban is going to roll over and let Kirby Smart enjoy his moment atop the college football world? Saban will have his Crimson Tide back with a vengeance, although there are some notable losses on both sides of the ball. The obvious one is former Heisman winner Bryce Young, the likely No. 1 overall selection in this upcoming spring's draft. It will be a fascinating competition to replace him; Jalen Milroe gained valuable experience this fall, but highly touted newcomer Ty Simpson should push him. The more important thing to watch will be the rest of the offense, which has been very un-Alabama over the last two seasons. Will Bill O'Brien return to Tuscaloosa, or is a return to the NFL in the cards? No matter whether he stays or goes, the receiver corps has to find some consistency after a rough year. Defensively, Will Anderson Jr. is a major loss, but Dallas Turner has the tools to be one of the nation's best and the back-end should be strong, with Kool-Aid McKinstry and company patrolling deep.

4. Michigan Wolverines

There's some uncertainty in Ann Arbor entering the offseason, despite 25 wins over the last two seasons. For the second straight year, Jim Harbaugh is openly flirting with NFL jobs, even though he has the pieces in place to once again win the Big Ten. J.J. McCarthy was impressive after taking over as full-time starter and could be even better in 2023 with a full offseason as QB1 under his belt. He will be aided by the nation's best running back duo, Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards. Corum likely could have been a fairly high draft pick this spring, but recently announced he was returning. The offensive line will be missing a few pieces from the Joe Moore-winning 2022 group, but they should still provide plenty of running lanes. The defense was tremendous this fall and despite a few losses, they should be strong once more. Mike Sanristil has already announced he's coming back to school, and the Wolverines landed a big-time transfer in Ernest Hausmann from Nebraska.

5. USC Trojans

Lincoln Riley has orchestrated a quick turnaround in Los Angeles, but USC's two defeats to close out 2022 should be an extra motivation for them heading into the offseason. The 2023 group will be headlined by reigning Heisman winner Caleb Williams, the first 'SC quarterback to take home the award since Matt Leinart. Williams will be the leader of a terrifying offense, with receivers Mario Williams, Brenden Rice, and newcomer Dorian Singer on the perimeter. Raleek Brown appears primed to take over feature back duties with Austin Jones and Travis Dye set to move on, although new South Carolina transfer MarShawn Lloyd will push him. However, the key for the Trojans will be fixing a defense that was atrocious in some of their bigger moments. The pressure is on coordinator Alex Grinch, who has garnered attention as a future head coaching candidate, but who has struggled as of late. The front seven suffers heavy losses, but adding pieces like Oklahoma State transfer Mason Cobb at linebacker should help in a big way.

6. Penn State Nittany Lions

Penn State has played third fiddle to Ohio State and Michigan the last several years, but the 2023 group might be the one to jump both of them. There's plenty of young playmakers who already have made an impact, aiming to do greater things. Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen became the first true freshman teammates to eclipse 700 yards in Big Ten history, and the Nittany Lions will lean on the ground game early and often with Sean Clifford moving on. Clifford was a source of frustration for many PSU fans, but there's no denying that the program will miss their longtime leader, meaning youngster Drew Allar has big shoes to fill. On defense, there are a few big names set to move on, but coordinator Manny Diaz seemed to find his rhythm with this unit down the stretch. Corner Kalen King has a chance to emerge as a legit Jim Thorpe contender, and Chop Robinson and Abdul Carter should terrorize opposing offenses up front. Going on the road to Ohio State next year is a tough draw, but the Nittany Lions do get Michigan at home, and their cross-division games are winnable.

7. Washington Huskies

Not even the most optimistic Washington fan should have expected the Huskies to go 11-2 in 2022, but Kalen DeBoer did magical things in Seattle this past fall. The outlook looks even better next season, as Washington has a serious shot to return to the CFB Playoff for the first time since 2016. Michael Penix Jr. will be in the Heisman conversation after a massive 2022 campaign, reuniting with his former play-caller, DeBoer. His receiver corps takes a slight hit, but Taj Davis has proven is worth and keep an eye on Michigan State transfer Germie Bernard as a serious breakout candidate. The defense is still a work-in-progress, but it played very well in the bowl game and has some interesting pieces. I'm still waiting on Sav'ell Smalls to have his eventual breakthrough; the former blue-chipper is too talented to continue being an afterthought.

8. Florida State Seminoles

Remember October 2021, when Florida State was coming off a heartbreaking loss to Jacksonville State an we didn't know whether Mike Norvell was going to make it past his second year? Oh, how silly that sounds a year later. The Seminoles won nine games in 2022 and have serious momentum; they look like the early ACC favorite for next fall. Quarterback Jordan Travis displayed real growth this season and has Heisman-level upside, while his favorite target, Johnny Wilson, is likely to return. Those two should lead a quality Seminole offense, but it's the defense that has FSU fans particularly excited. Jared Verse likely would have been a Top 20 selection in the 2023 NFL Draft, but instead decided to come back for one more run in Tallahassee. He will likely be a preseason All-American, and is joined by one-time Ole Miss transfer Fabien Lovett up front. On the back-end, Fentrell Cypress II was one of the most sought after players in the transfer portal this cycle and now arrives to lead the FSU pass defense.

9. Utah Utes

USC has become the flashy team in the Pac-12 but one thing is clear: the conference still runs through Salt Lake City. Utah beat the Trojans twice in 2022 and will be back in the CFB Playoff hunt once more this upcoming fall. Veteran quarterback Cam Rising has already announced his intentions to return, giving the Utes a proven, reliable signal-caller to run the show. It will help that he's likely to have two of his favorite targets back in tight end Brant Kuithe and wide out Devaughn Vele. Kuithe missed most of 2022 with injury, but is one of the nation's best when healthy. Add in converted QB Ja'Quinden Jackson, who will likely be the feature back, and this could be one of the best Utah offenses in a long time. The defense will undoubtedly miss Clark Phillips III, but Morgan Scalley reloads as well as anyone. They'll be tough and physical up front, and getting Stanford linebacker transfer Levani Damuni was big.

10. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

A surprising 0-2 start could have sent Notre Dame spiraling, but Marcus Freeman and company righted the ship and finished 9-4. It was an understandable season of growing pains for the first-time head man, but the Irish should feel good looking ahead to 2023. For one, the quarterback position is about to get a major upgrade in the form of Sam Hartman, who smashed record after record at Wake Forest. He'll open up an offense that was pedestrian and one-dimensional in 2022. The supporting cast will be in store for a transition as Michael Mayer and numerous backs move on, but could this be the year Chris Tyree puts it all together? Al Golden looks like he'll be back as the defensive coordinator, and despite losses up front, the back-seven looks good.

11. LSU Tigers

Brian Kelly's first season in Baton Rouge was a success, as the Tigers took home an SEC West Title and won ten games. The 2023 group has the chance to repeat as division champs, even with Alabama likely to return with a vengeance. Quarterback Jayden Daniels was a pleasant surprise this fall, and now will return for his final season of college football. He's a dynamic runner, but it was his improved passing ability that came as a real surprise in 2022. We thought Daniels would have the luxury of having his top receiver, Kayshon Boutte, back for another year but after previously announcing his intention to return to school, Boutte pulled a 180 and went pro. Even so, Malik Nabers proved that he was quite the playmaker as a true sophomore, and has the potential to be even better. On defense, Harold Perkins was a superstar as a freshman and could be the most dominant defender in the country in 2023.

12. Clemson Tigers

It shows the standard that Dabo Swinney has set at Clemson that the Tigers are coming off two consecutive "down" years, despite 21 wins in that span. To be fair, Clemson has shown significant cracks in their armor after an astounding run in the mid-2010s, but don't expect them to roll over and let FSU take the ACC. Tailback Will Shipley is already one of the nation's best, and should enter 2023 on most Doak Walker Award shortlists. He'll be the fuel of the offense, but Clemson is hoping Cade Klubnik can provide much-needed stability at the quarterback position after two rollercoaster seasons with D.J. Uiagalelei. Klubnik is young, but he showed he could handle the spotlight in short spurts this fall, and he has higher upside than Uiagalelei. He'll be helped by the fact the offensive line should return most of its starters, and the receiver corps will also be well-stocked. It's actually the defense where more questions lie, as Myles Murphy, Bryan Bresee, and Trenton Simpson all look like they're off to the NFL.

13. Oregon Ducks

Dan Lanning had a strong debut campaign in Eugene, as the Ducks went 10-3 and came back to beat North Carolina in the Holiday Bowl. The prognosis for 2023 looks promising, even with the defense set to suffer significant losses. Quarterback Bo Nix was one of the best stories of the 2022 college football season, a player who was a constant source of hate among wide swaths of the college football community before putting together a remarkable year. He flirted with the idea of going pro, but instead opted to return for one more run. He'll be joined in the backfield by Mar'Keise "Bucky" Irving, who flashed elite playmaking ability after transferring from Minnesota. Lanning and Oregon were also quietly one of the major winners of the early transfer portal period, as they landed two instant starters on the O-Line in Junior Angilau and Ajani Cornelius and a productive corner in Khyree Jackson.

14. TCU Horned Frogs

The National Championship blowout shouldn't erase just how amazing TCU's 2022 was. Sonny Dykes took over a 5-7 program that had just fired longtime head coach Gary Patterson and took them all the way to the National Championship in under 12 months. However, he'll have to show he can keep things rolling, as the Horned Frogs are set to lose three of their most important pieces, Max Duggan, Quentin Johnston, and Kendre Miller. Chandler Morris was originally pegged as the Day One starter in 2022 before injury and should reclaim the role, and he may actually end up being a better fit for Dykes' offense than Duggan. He will lead an untested, but talented, offense that has brought in a host of transfers. The defense remains a work-in-progress and it doesn't help that Dee Winters and Tre'Vius Hodges-Tomlinson are set to depart, but names like Mark Perry and Jamoi Hodge give them a decent starting point.

15. North Carolina Tar Heels

A year later than most expected, North Carolina rose to the top of the ACC and won the Coastal Division. They now enter the offseason as a serious threat to overpower Clemson and Florida State in the conference, although the ACC forgoing divisions will make a repeat trip to the Championship Game more difficult. The Tar Heels are blessed with one of the nation's top quarterbacks, Drake Maye, who could be the 2023 Heisman favorite. There was some question whether he may test the transfer waters to land a large NIL deal, but he appears committed to Chapel Hill. Maye will have to make do without his offensive coordinator, Phil Longo, or top wide out, Josh Downs, but there's still plenty of talent. The defense has been the Achilles Heel since Mack Brown's return and the back-end is a real question mark, but the staff has recruited this side of the ball very well and the talent will start showing through eventually.

16. Tennessee Volunteers

I don't see Tennessee as a one-hit wonder, but it's fair to wonder if the Vols may be in store for a slight step-back after their best season in two decades. Hendon Hooker is off to the NFL and offensive coordinator Alex Golesh took the head coaching job at South Florida, but Josh Heuepel's system remains in place. Former Michigan transfer Joe Milton should step in and take over for Hooker, and he was a revelation in their bowl win over Clemson. Milton won't have the luxury of the team's top two receivers, Jalin Hyatt and Cedric Tillman, but there remains a healthy amount of playmaking weapons dotting the roster. Defensively, Tennessee is unlikely to put up great numbers considering how much they have to be on the field with this offense, but they showed they survive playing an aggressive, downhill style. Losing Byron Young up front hurts, but plenty returns in the back-seven.

17. Kansas State Wildcats

A friendly reminder: Kansas State, not TCU, was the Big 12 Champion in 2022, and Chris Klieman has built a consistent winner in Manhattan. They will have to move forward without dynamic tailback Deuce Vaughn, who is set go pro, but the Wildcats got a win in the transfer portal by landing Florida State transplant Treshaun Ward. He will be joined in the backfield by veteran QB Will Howard, although don't be shocked if newcomer Avery Johnson receives plenty of fanfare. He's one of the highest-rated recruits in program history, and K-State fans will be calling for him the moment the offense struggles. Klieman always seems to have strong defenses and that should be the case next season, particularly if impact edge rusher Felix Anudike-Uzomah returns. The Wildcats are also helped by the fact the Big 12 is wide open as it's ever been. TCU will be back in the hunt, but they suffer heavy losses, and traditional powers Oklahoma and Texas remain in a strange transition stage. All four of the teams set to make their grand entrance to the league in '23 (Cincinnati, BYU, Houston, and UCF) all face similar questions, giving K-State a golden opportunity to repeat.

18. Tulane Green Wave

Willie Fritz engineered the greatest single-season turnaround in college football history this fall, taking Tulane from 2-10 to 12-2, with a New Year's Six Bowl victory to cap it all off. Fritz entertained the possibility of taking a Power Five job but instead decided to return to Tulane, likely assuring another great year for the Green Wave in 2023. Even more important than the return of Fritz was the return of star QB Michael Pratt, who likely could have earned a sizable NIL deal from a larger school, but instead stuck around. A lot of the major pieces from the offense are gone, but the O-Line should be experienced and the skill positions have loads of potential. Defensive coordinator Chris Hampton could have also taken a bigger job, but his return likely assures a quality unit once again. He's quickly become a big name to watch on the coaching carousel; don't be shocked if he's up for head coaching jobs next offseason. The Green Wave also benefit from the shifting landscape of college football; UCF, Cincinnati, and Houston all depart, making the conference even easier to win.

19. Ole Miss Rebels

Lane Kiffin's 2022 Ole Miss team essentially had two different seasons. One was in the first half of the year, when the Rebels went 7-0 and looked like a serious SEC contender. The other was in the second half, when the bottom fell out, and they lost five of six. Which will show up in 2023? Kiffin will have one of the nation's most exciting backs at his disposal in Quinshon Judkins, but he needs more consistency from QB Jaxson Dart. Dart will miss two of his top wide outs in Jonathan Mingo and Malik Heath, but Jordan Watkins and Dayton Wade seem ready to step up and tight end Michael Trigg has unlimited potential. The defense made major strides in 2023 under the tutelage of Chris Partridge, but there are heavy losses here. Defensive linemen J.J. Pegues could be a name to watch up front and UCF transfer Jeremiah Jean-Baptiste was a nice get, assuming he can make the jump to SEC ball.

20. Troy Trojans

Looking to jump on a Group of Five team's bandwagon in 2023? The Troy Trojans would be a great place to start. Jon Summrall went 12-2 in his first season with the Trojans, and they should be the Sun Belt favorite looking ahead towards next fall. Quarterback Gunnar Watson should return, but the big name on offense is tailback Kimandi Vidal, who topped 1,000 yards and ran all over UL-Monroe and Arkansas State last fall. The receiver corps took a hit when Tez Johnson transferred, but there's still weapons here, and the offensive line should be good. The defense was one of the nation's best in 2022 and despite losing program stalwart Carlton Martial, Troy should be okay. There's still names like corner Reddy Steward and fearsome pass rusher Richard Jibunor, and coordinator Shiel Wood opted to stay in town.

21. Texas Longhorns

Steve Sarkisian enters a pivotal third year in Austin. The Longhorns showed real progress in 2022, but Sarkisian is still just 13-12 with the program and the 2023 campaign could be their last one before their transition to the SEC. Fortunately, Texas has no shortage of talent, but can they reach their potential? Quinn Ewers is set to return at quarterback and should hold on to the job, even with the arrival of Arch Manning. Ewers won't have Bijan Robinson with him to take the pressure off him, but the receiver corps will be dangerous, with Xavier Worthy, Jordan Whittington, and tight end Ja'Tavion Sanders set to return. The defense will be the X-factor, a group that has regularly underachieved all the way back to the end of the Mack Brown era. There's notable losses, but the defensive line is loaded with talent and newcomer Anthony Hill Jr. could be an instant impact player at linebacker.

22. Oregon State Beavers

There may not be a more underrated coach in America than Oregon State's Jonathan Smith. The one-time Beaver great has completely turned things around at his alma mater, and has this program in the hunt for a Pac-12 Title. They'll be dangerous in 2022, with notable pieces set to return and a healthy influx of talent through the transfer portal. Tailback Damien Martinez ran for 982 yards as a true freshman this past fall and could emerge as one of the nation's best with a full offseason under his belt. He'll be the focal point of the offense, but Oregon State did land a major get in the portal in quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei. Uiagalelei should benefit not only from returning to his native West Coast, but going to a less high-pressure situation than he experienced at Clemson. Defensively, the front seven should be solid after making major strides in 2022, but there are losses on the back-end. All eyes remain on linebacker Omar Speights, one of the team's best players, who is mulling an NFL Draft decision.

23. UCLA Bruins

It looks like Chip Kelly finally has things figured out in Westwood, and the Bruins will still be a major player in the Pac-12 race. They do lose two of their best offensive pieces in longtime starter Dorian Thompson-Robinson and productive tailback Zach Charbonnet, but they've worked the portal and landed a big-time talent in five-star freshman Dante Moore. It might be a bit much to expect Moore to start in 2023, with Kent State transfer Collin Schlee the likely Day One guy, but don't be surprised if Kelly finds creative ways to get the talented youngster on the field. Schlee will be joined in the backfield by another MAC transplant, Ball State's Carson Steele, who went for over 1,500 yards in 2022. The receiver corps is a bit unproven at this point, but the defense gives reason to believe in the Bruins. Although UCLA struggled with consistency, they've become a much more physical, disciplined group than the early Kelly years. Whether or not twin defensive linemen Grayson and Gabriel Murphy go pro will be an interesting storyline to watch in the offseason.

24. Oklahoma Sooners

Oklahoma suffered through their first losing season in over two decades during the debut campaign for Brent Venables, but there's hope for improvement in 2023. Quarterback Dillon Gabriel has already announced he will be back for another year after dealing with injuries throughout the fall, giving the Sooners a veteran signal-caller to lead the way. He'll have some interesting weapons around him; while Eric Gray and Marvin Mims are set to depart for the NFL, Gavin Sawchuk is a real breakout candidate and Jalil Farooq could emerge as the top option outside. The Sooners also had a nice get in the portal, landing Michigan transfer Andrel Anthony Jr. The key, however, will be fixing a defense that was horrifyingly bad at times in 2022. The fact of the matter is things really can't get much worse, but Oklahoma needs a few young pieces to step up. Several additions in the portal should help out, including Indiana's Dasan McCullough, and leading tackler Danny Stutsman is set to return.

25. Duke Blue Devils

It didn't get a ton of national attention, but Mike Elko had arguably the best debut season with their new program of any head coach not named Lincoln Riley. He led the Blue Devils to a 9-4 mark, which included a bowl victory over UCF in the Military Bowl. They could be a sleeper in 2023, thanks in large part to the return of quarterback Riley Leonard, who led the team in passing and rushing this fall. He could be a dark horse Heisman candidate looking ahead to next year. Leonard is set to be joined by top tailback Jordan Waters and Jordan Moore, who is set to replace Jalon Calhoun as the top receiver. The other side of the ball should be stout, too, and I really like some of these pieces. Brandon Johnson has All-ACC talent in the secondary and DeWayne Carter swallows up opposing rushing attacks on the interior D-Line.

Just Missed the Cut

SMU Mustangs: Tanner Mordecai may be off to Wisconsin, but former high-profile recruit Preston Stone could took over as the new face of the offense at quarterback. He'll be paired with two former five-star running backs, Camar Wheaton and L.J. Johnson Jr.

South Carolina Gamecocks: South Carolina showed real progress during Shane Beamer's second season and they could be the greatest threat to Georgia in the division if Tennessee takes a step back. Getting Spencer Rattler back at quarterback was huge and he could have a huge grand finale.

Texas Tech Red Raiders: There's a feeling of momentum in Lubbock entering 2023, as Joey McGuire delivered an eight-win debut and has had success on the recruiting trail. The Red Raiders will have a veteran quarterback leading the way in Tyler Shough and an experienced defense that could become one of the Big 12's best.

Arkansas Razorbacks: The Razorbacks were a disappointment in 2022, but they could be in store for a bounceback this upcoming fall. K.J. Jefferson has already announced he'll be back and should form a fearsome duo with Raheim Sanders in the backfield. The defense loses Drew Sandders and coordinator Barry Odom, but there's still some interesting pieces.

Kentucky Wildcats: Kentucky has become of the most consistent programs in the nation and they should be a threat in 2023. Offensive coordinator Liam Coen is back after a one-year return to the Los Angeles Rams and now has an experienced quarterback to run the offense in NC State's Devin Leary.

2022-23 College Football Playoff National Championship Prediction

Kenny McIntosh, Georgia

The final game of the 2022 college football season features a fascinating battle between two teams with vastly different routes to Los Angeles. Over the past year, Georgia has been the hunted, fresh off their first National Title in four decades and loaded with NFL talent. The same can't be said for TCU, who fired longtime head coach Gary Patterson mid-2021 and replaced him with Sonny Dykes. Dykes has engineered one of the most amazing turnarounds in college football's long history, taking the Horned Frogs from 5-7 to a National Championship appearance. Despite these different journeys, the two collide on the final night of the season with a National Title on the line.

Kirby Smart has turned Georgia into a machine since his arrival in Athens, a program with astounding talent on both sides of the ball that has wrecked nearly every team that has stood in their way this fall. That doesn't mean the Bulldogs have been perfect, but they've never wavered from their position near the top of the polls. However, their success has come in different ways than the 2021 group, which featured one of the greatest defenses in the sport's history. Instead, the 'Dawgs have leaned more heavily on the offense and more specifically, the passing attack. The program has long had a ground-and-pound identity, but quarterback Stetson Bennett and the rest of the passing game have shown a willingness to open things up and take shots down the field. Bennett has his fair share of detractors, but the former walk-on has elevated his game in 2022. He's taken better care of the football and has improved as a playmaker, all while playing his best in the biggest moments. Of course, it helps that the rest of the offense is loaded with former blue-chip recruits, all who play their own role in helping the team succeed. Tight end Brock Bowers receives most of the attention, and for good reason, but this is an incredibly deep receiver room. Arian Smith had the big game in the semifinal, but the Bulldogs can also feature Kearis Jackson, Adonai Mitchell, Ladd McConkey, and Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint. McConkey has been their most reliable true receiver on the year, but has been beat up over the last month after leaving the SEC Championship Game early. It sounds like he'll be a full go in this one, as is the case with gigantic tight end Darnell Washington, who isn't 100 percent but should play. This group is going to be able to apply a bunch of pressure to a TCU pass defense that has been inconsistent for much of the year. On the ground, Georgia is without their usual star back, but they have a fearsome foursome in Kenny McIntosh, Daijuan Edwards, Kendall Milton, and Branson Robinson. All of that behind a strong offensive line, it's understandable why the 'Dawgs have had what is likely their best offense during the Smart era. It's a stiff challenge for TCU's defense, who hasn't looked great statistically for much of the year, but the Frogs were really impressive against Michigan. They were much more physical up front than I expected and the opportunistic back-end forced several game-changing turnovers. I'd argue Georgia is a tougher task than Michigan based on their depth, but TCU deserves a lot of credit. They'll be ready to go in this one, and I don't imagine they'll be steamrolled by the Bulldogs the way other defenses have been.

As I said in my preview of the Fiesta Bowl, Caleb Williams deserved the Heisman, but there's not a player in the nation who is their team's MVP quite like Max Duggan. The veteran quarterback has battled through adversity his entire TCU career and has been particularly impressive in 2022. He's always been a tough, hard-nosed runner, but his ability to create more with his arm has made the Frogs very scary. He didn't have his best game of the year against Michigan, but did enough to lift his team to victory. He's surrounded by a group of weapons that isn't as deep as Georgia's, but still offers plenty of playmaking. Quentin Johnston capped off an impressive season with a dominant showing against Michigan in the semifinal, and should be able to test UGA's secondary vertically the way Ohio State did. He's joined on the outside by Derius Davis, Taye Barber, and Jordan Hudson, a trio that shouldn't be overlooked in their importance to TCU this season. However, it's the ground game that's been the real fuel behind the Frog offense for most of 2022, with Duggan and Kendre Miller leading the charge. Miller has been tremendous all year but is questionable for this contest. However, Emari Demarcado showed that he was more than just a change-of-pace by running all over the Wolverines last week, totaling 150 yards and a touchdown. This TCU offense now faces an interesting matchup with Georgia, a defense that plays a lot differently than what they've seen in the Big 12. With that being said, it's very important to note that this Bulldog defense is not the 2021 group. They've still been great for most of the season, but the front seven isn't quite as quick or athletic, and the back-end has been a real problem at times. Look no further than the SEC Championship Game against LSU; despite the fact the Tigers leaned on their ground attack all year, they threw for 500-plus against this Bulldog secondary, a group loaded with veterans. TCU is going to be able to put up points and if Duggan can take care of the ball, it wouldn't surprise me to see a shootout unfolding here.

I'll call myself out here: while I felt TCU was deserving of a CFB Playoff spot, I thought they'd be run out of the stadium by Michigan. Clearly, I was way off, as the Horned Frogs once again bucked expectations and advanced to the National Championship. This team has been such a great story that they should feel accomplished no matter the result Monday night, and I like their chances to cover the two-touchdown spread. They're going to be able to move the ball against Georgia, and despite the defense has been a constant source of criticism, they did enough to overcome the Wolverines. But at the end of the day, it feels like Georgia is the smarter pick. Their depth allows them to be fresher than TCU this late in the season and I still believe they own the slight advantage along the lines of scrimmage. The pass defense gives me reason to be wary, but I think they actually match up better against the Frogs than Ohio State. They enter this year's National Championship with a different set of expectations and different motivations, but the result should be the same: a National Title.

The Pick: Georgia, 38 TCU, 31