Sunday, December 31, 2023

College Football Playoff Picks 2023-24: Rose Bowl, Sugar Bowl


Rome Odunze, Washington

Rose Bowl: (#4) Alabama Crimson Tide vs. (#1) Michigan Wolverines

Line: Michigan -1.5

O/U: 44.5

For as strange of an offseason as it has been off the field for Michigan, the Wolverines enter this year's College Football Playoff a perfect 13-0, fresh off their third consecutive Big Ten Title. The program has to feel as though they have something to prove after a pair of short-lived Playoff appearances, and now get an opportunity against Nick Saban and the mighty Alabama Crimson Tide. Alabama's controversial inclusion in the Playoff aside, the door is open for Saban to claim his seventh National Title with the Tide, this time as the "underdog" in the four-team field.

In a sport increasingly defined by elite quarterbacks and wide receivers, Michigan feels like a bit of a throwback to a different era in college football. That's not to take anything away from J.J. McCarthy, who has had an impressive year, but this Wolverine team is predicated on a power-run attack behind a physical offensive line, with an elite defense going the other way. Blake Corum is fully healthy this time around and will join up with Donovan Edwards to give Alabama's rush defense their toughest challenge of the 2023 campaign. On the outside, the Wolverines don't feature a superstar, but Roman Wilson and Cornelius Johnson provide plenty of explosiveness, while tight ends Colston Loveland and A.J. Barner operate underneath. They should be an interesting test for an Alabama secondary that has several future NFL pieces, most notably the likely first CB off the board this spring in Kool-Aid McKinstry, but has experienced plenty of ups-and-downs. The Tide defense does seem to be playing their best ball at the right time, and I expect them to come out aggressively - this game could end up coming down to the chess match at the line of scrimmage between the Alabama front and Michigan O-Line. The Wolverines have been great up front, but Dallas Turner and company will be fired up and ready to go. It feels like this Tide defense is going to see whether McCarthy has the tools to beat them, a guy who has something to prove himself after several key turnovers in last year's loss to TCU. McCarthy has played big at the most important moments of the 2023 season, but is he ready for this type of stage against this Tide defense? This is the type of game where a quarterback can step up and become a forever campus legend - just ask Stetson Bennett.

We've become accustomed to such dominant Alabama teams that this year's 12-1 finish and SEC Title doesn't feel altogether very special. But, the reality is that this is probably Saban's best coaching job since he's taken over in Tuscaloosa, keeping the Tide on track after a rough September and seemingly getting better each and every week. Quarterback Jalen Milroe has had a turbulent season, but the dual threat has been tremendous over the last two months of the season, and gives this Tide offense an element they haven't had in the past with his legs. Milroe is still prone to the turnover or mistake, which is a concern against an opportunistic Michigan defense, but he has the ability to open up games in a way this Wolverine defense hasn't seen much of on the year. What's even more amazing about Milroe is that he's kept the Tide offense firing even though his supporting cast has felt very un-Alabamaesque, with Jermaine Burton on the perimeter and Roydell Williams and Jase McClellan out of the backfield. Burton has evolved into the big-play threat this team needs, but I am curious if another Tide pass-catcher will step up - Isaiah Bond is the obvious candidate, but both face down a stifling Wolverine secondary. Much like the matchup the other way, the action at the line of scrimmage is also going to play an outsized role. The Tide offensive line has improved drastically after a rough start to the season, but they still face quite the challenge in this one. The Wolverines don't have just one elite pass rusher this season, but they're deep and experienced, the type of defensive front that is going to play well deep into this contest. It feels like whichever group comes out with more energy and an edge in the physicality contest is going to put their team in position to come out on top.

For all the frustration from Florida State fans over their team being left out of the four-team field, all of which I believe to be valid, what a semifinal matchup this one is going to turn out to be. Two of the sport's most recognizable brands, two elite head coaches, and two tremendous football teams set to battle it out in college football's best venue ... what more could you ask for? It should be a good game, too, with neither side having a clear advantage either direction. Michigan was my preseason National Title pick so it feels only right for me to stick with them to conquer the Tide and set the program up for their first in over two decades.

The Pick: Michigan, 31 Alabama, 28


Sugar Bowl: (#3) Texas Longhorns vs. (#2) Washington Huskies

Line: Texas -4

O/U: 64.5

Not since an unfortunate injury to Colt McCoy in the 2009 National Championship Game have we seen a Texas team this close to hoisting a National Title, but standing in their way is the undefeated Washington Huskies and Heisman winner Michael Penix. As opposed to the Rose Bowl, which has the looks of a physical, grind of a football game, the Sugar Bowl has all the makings of a fun, high-scoring affair between two programs looking to prove themselves on one of the sport's biggest stages.

The transfer portal has become somewhat of a boogeyman in the world of modern college football, but it's always a great story to see a situation where it worked out to perfection, as is the case with Penix and Washington. After several injury-plagued seasons at Indiana, Penix connected with his old play-caller Kalen DeBoer, now the head man at UW, and has put together a pair of record-setting seasons. That includes a 2023 campaign in which he has eclipsed 4,000 yards and 36 total touchdowns, while helping Washington to a perfect 13-0. It's not just the fact this Washington offense puts up gaudy stats, it's a genuinely fun team to watch every time they take the field. Penix has unlimited arm strength, and is flanked by arguably the nation's top receiver corps, including Rome Odunze, Ja'Lynn Polk, Jalen McMillan, and Germie Bernard. DeBoer and coordinator Ryan Grubb are masterminds at finding a way to get their playmakers open, and Penix has showed up each and every week. Then there's the unsung heroes of the offense, the O-Line and tailback Dillon Johnson, who provide just enough balance to keep defenses honest. Johnson quietly surpassed the 1,000-yard mark on the year and has been instrumental in Washington's success down the stretch, while the Husky offensive line won the Joe Moore Award as the nation's best. All in all, it's quite the challenge for a Texas defense that has been significantly improved all year, but still is prone to occasional lapses. Texas defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski did come from Washington and may have a few tricks up his sleeve, but what DeBoer and staff have been running is far different from what Kwiatkowski saw under Chris Petersen just a few years ago. The Huskies are going to attack down the field and if this Longhorn defense isn't ready, this one could quickly devolve into a shootout.

Even with several important injuries, the Texas offense keeps on rolling, coming off a Big 12 Championship Game in which they dropped 49 points. Quarterback Quinn Ewers missed several weeks but appears close to 100 percent and should be ready to go. He's still a bit streaky, but there are few quarterbacks in the nation as impressive as the redshirt sophomore when he's on his "A" game - simply go back and watch the tape from the Alabama win. Ewers has plenty of help as well, with Xavier Worthy and Adonai Mitchell on the outside and tight end Ja'Tavion Sanders creating matchup problems underneath. With that being said, I am curious whether the Longhorns will be able to maintain the offensive balance that this has defined this unit in 2023 as they prepare for another game without Jonathon Brooks. Brooks was having a dominant year before a torn ACL in early November and although the Longhorns have managed well without him, these are the types of games where he would make all the difference. C.J. Baxter and Jaydon Blue have been impressive in relief, but it still feels like this unit isn't at complete full strength, which is a problem when you consider who they're facing the other way. With that being said, they should be able to still move the ball against a Washington defense that has been leaky at times this season, although they are coming off a strong showing in the Pac-12 Championship Game. The Huskies did a great job disrupting the rhythm of Bo Nix in that one, and they should be able to draw up something creative to do the same against Ewers.

I've been skeptical about both of these teams at different points throughout the season and yet here they are, playing for a chance at a National Championship Game berth. Washington in particular has left quite the impression on me - they've had off weeks and tough matchups, yet have answered the call at every point on the year. Instead of slowing down, they seem to be getting even stronger at the right time, and I think this is the opportunity to show out against a fantastic Texas team. I like them to move on, setting up a National Championship Game featuring two future Big Ten foes for all the marbles.

The Pick: Washington, 41 Texas, 31

Tuesday, December 26, 2023

NFL Mock Draft 2024: Edition 2 (End-of-Year Edition)

Caleb Williams, USC
 1. Chicago Bears (from Carolina)

Caleb Williams, QB, USC

The Bears have a chance to be the NFL's ultimate wild card this offseason, with ample money to throw around and two selections likely to land in the Top 5 of the 2024 NFL Draft. Justin Fields has played better since his return from injury, but it still feels like the organization will have a difficult time passing up the allure of Caleb Williams, who would give them the game-changer they've lacked at the position for years.

2. Arizona Cardinals

Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State

Are Kyler Murray and Arizona in for a divorce this offseason? Neither this Arizona front office or head coach Jonathan Gannon were part of the group that originally drafted Murray, or signed him to a hefty extension, and they could be looking to start anew. But unless they find a creative way to manuaver out of his contract, it's likely they'll have to rock with him for at least one more season. So, why not give him a special talent to work with, like Marvin Harrison Jr.? The former Buckeye could be the Larry Fitzgerald of a new era in the desert.

3. New England Patriots

Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina

More and more, 2023 has the feeling of Bill Belichick's final run in New England, and it just feels right for the Patriots to begin a new direction by drafting a difference-maker under center. Drake Maye would be the clear top quarterback off the board in just about every other draft class, but offers tremendous value for the Pats down here at third overall.

4. Washington Commanders

Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn State

Is Sam Howell really the guy in the nation's capital? The jury is most definitely still out, particularly as the Commanders fall to the cellar of the NFC East, but it wouldn't shock me if Howell is the taking Day One snaps in 2024. Assuming that is the case, it makes sense for Washington to complement him by adding a stalwart at tackle in the form of Olu Fashanu, who will be reminding fans of Trent Williams in short order.

5. Chicago Bears

Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame

Chicago hopes that Caleb Williams is the answer to their quarterback woes, but this second first-rounder is all about surrounding him with the right supporting cast. Receiver would be an obvious solution but with MHJ gone, it's hard to find a pass-catcher that wouldn't be a stretch at five. Instead, they stay in the Midwest and land a rapidly improving blocker in Joe Alt, who has been a contributor for the Irish since the moment he stepped on campus.

6. Los Angeles Chargers

Laiatu Latu, DE/LB, UCLA

The Chargers are going to be in for massive changes over the offseason, with ample changes throughout the coaching staff and front office. That makes mocking this selection particularly difficult, but it feels like adding a disruptive pass rusher never goes out of style. Laiatu Latu, who put together monster numbers over his UCLA career, has the skillset and scheme versatility to make an immediate impact on a needy defense.

7. New York Giants

Malik Nabers, WR, LSU

Tommy DeVito's magical run seemed to come to its inevitable conclusion on Christmas night, and the G-Men could very well be drafting in the Top 5 come next spring. Quarterback remains a real possibility, but my belief is that they'll trot out Daniel Jones for one more year, while adding a flashy piece on the perimeter to bolster the offense. Enter Malik Nabers, who finished as a Biletnikoff Award finalist after a dominant 2023 with LSU.

8. New York Jets

Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia

It's been a rough season for the Jets, but the hope is that an Aaron Rodgers' return will flip the narrative in New York. Adding another pass-catcher could be just as important, especially one as talented as Brock Bowers, who has put together three superb seasons in Athens. If not for an injury that cost him a big chunk of the year, I don't think it's a stretch at all to say that Bowers would have earned serious Heisman consideration this fall.

9. Tennessee Titans

Kool Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama

There are several needs the Titans will look to address this offseason as they build around Will Levis for the foreseeable future. Both lines could use some reinforcements and it feels like Tennessee could always use another wide out, but I'm circling the defensive backfield if I'm the Titans. Quarterback play in the AFC South keeps on improving, and adding a shutdown corner like Kool Aid McKinstry feels like a necessity.

10. Atlanta Falcons

Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU

After a record-setting season with LSU, it's going to be fascinating to watch how NFL folks evaluate Jayden Daniels. Before this year, it never felt like he was much of a pro-ready quarterback, but now appears like he could rise into the Top 5. Atlanta is certainly in need of a quarterback and this feels like a nice spot to add a mature, well-rounded signal-caller.

11. New Orleans Saints

Keon Coleman, WR, Florida State

New Orleans has attempted to keep their championship window open by leaning on an aerial attack featuring Derek Carr and an underwhelming cast of characters, but the results have been less-than-stellar. It's time the organization invests in the pass offense and adds a talent like Keon Coleman, who has been a bit inconsistent throughout his collegiate career, but absolutely dominant when he's "on."

12. Green Bay Packers

J.C. Latham, OT, Alabama

Predicting which direction Green Bay goes in with this front office often feels like you're throwing darts at the wall, but there's an obvious need along the offensive line here and a prospect that slides in perfectly in J.C. Latham. The 6'6", 360-pounder is a freak of nature and Green Bay could arrange for a homecoming of sorts, as Latham hailing from Oak Creek, Wisconsin originally.

13. Las Vegas Raiders

Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson

Cornerback has been circled as an obvious need position for the Raiders, and something tells me they will be investing in the position early on this offseason. Clemson's Nate Wiggins may not have the ceiling of Kool-Aid McKinstry, but he's a lengthy, well-rounded corner with a proven pedigree, making him well worth this selection.

14. Denver Broncos

Rome Odunze, WR, Washington

It feels like we could we see a shuffling of Denver's receiver room this offseason, regardless of how they finish the regular season. Jerry Jeudy feels like he's gone and despite his production, Courtland Sutton could also be a casualty of the times as this team builds for the future. The Broncos would be just fine taking a dynamic weapon like Rome Odunze as a replacement, a deep threat they've been missing all season.

15. Minnesota Vikings

Jer'Zhan Newton, DL, Illinois

Another team that has some decisions to make this offseason, as Minnesota evaluates their quarterback situation. Fortunately, the rest of the roster is still built to compete and by plugging holes, this team could certainly be in the hunt in the NFC. Adding a disruptive force like Jer'Zhan Newton, who has unstoppable while at Illinois, feels like a no-brainer at this spot for the front office.

16. Cincinnati Bengals

Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State

With Tee Higgins potentially set to walk in free agency and a clear need at tight end, we should be watching pass-catcher in the first round for the Bengals. Yet, with all the big names off the board at this point, Cincinnati goes in a different direction by upgrading along the O-Line. Taliese Fuaga, a behemoth out of Oregon State, is the type of prospect that should climb steadily up boards throughout the pre-Draft process.

17. Arizona Cardinals (from Houston)

Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama

The Cardinals added the flashy new offensive piece with their earlier first-rounder - this selection is all about addressing their top need, cornerback. Certainly they would love if Kool-Aid McKinstry were to drop deeper into the first, but his defensive backfield mate Terrion Arnold, is a fine consolation. Arnold can be inconsistent, but has all the physical gifts necessary to be a plus defender in the pros.

18. Pittsburgh Steelers

Dallas Turner, DE/LB, Alabama

Dallas Turner is likely to land much higher than this but based on the way things turn out, anybody can slide come draft night. Expect the Steelers to jump on this opportunity if it were to happen, adding a relentless pass rusher off the edge who can complement T.J. Watt for the long haul.

19. Indianapolis Colts

Chop Robinson, DE, Penn State

The Colts have been a pleasant surprise, even with Anthony Richardson sidelined most of the year, but if they want to be serious threats in the AFC they need to shore up the defense. All three levels could use reinforcements and although corner seems to be a more pressing need, I love the idea of Indy adding a ferocious pass rusher like Chop Robinson out of Penn State.

20. Los Angeles Rams

Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa

It's been an up-and-down year in LA, but the Rams appear to still have a championship window open if they can fix a few of the holes that have persisted throughout this fall. That includes a secondary that has taken a notable step-back, and would benefit from adding a weapon like Iowa's Cooper DeJean. DeJean is the type of playmaker at the position you don't get every day, a ball hawk who can also make things happen on special teams.

21. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Jared Verse, DE, Florida State

Tampa has been a pleasant surprise under the leadership of Baker Mayfield, but you still have to be monitoring quarterback with their first-rounder this year. Both Michael Penix and Bo Nix should get a look here, and both could end up going higher than anticipated, but it feels like the Buccaneers may be content going best player available and waiting to find the right fit for their next franchise signal-caller.

22. Jacksonville Jaguars

Patrick Paul, OT, Houston

There are obvious holes on both lines of scrimmage for Jacksonville, with the defense underperforming at crucial points during the year and shaky protection in front of Trevor Lawrence. The defense will need work, but I suspect adding a young blocker will be at the top of the priority list, and the Jags get nice value here with Patrick Paul in the early 20s.

23. Seattle Seahawks

Bralen Trice, DE, Washington

Seattle's pass rush has been lifeless most of the season, and the organization needs to invest draft capital if they hope to flip the script in 2024. Fortunately, they may not have to go very far to do so, as they can stay in the city and snag Bralen Trice out of Washington. The polished end has been a force for the undefeated Huskies all season, and has the measurables that translate very well to the pro game.

24. Buffalo Bills

Emeka Egbuka, WR, Ohio State

Regardless of how the season finishes in Buffalo, the Bills have things to figure out offensively, most notably at receiver. Gabe Davis has been a steady No. 2 but is set to hit free agency and will likely be looking for a pay day, meaning Buffalo could soon be looking for new blood alongside Stefon Diggs. Emeka Egbuka makes plenty of sense if that is indeed the case - although he played second fiddle to Harrison Jr. at Ohio State, the former Buckeye is a special talent.

25. Kansas City Chiefs

Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas

Patrick Mahomes may be the most talented quarterback in the NFL, but it's become clear this year that he can't do it all alone. The Chiefs have not done a great job surrounding him with the right pieces at receiver, resulting in a staggering amount of drops that have fed an underlying sense of frustration around the team throughout the fall. Adonai Mitchell is an instant impact receiver who seemed to get better each and every week for Texas in 2023 after coming over from Georgia.

26. Dallas Cowboys

Graham Barton, OL, Duke

Don't be surprised if Graham Barton begins steadily climbing up draft boards as the pre-Draft process ramps up. The Duke product is a well-rounded, versatile blocker who is the type of prospect that could have a coming out party at the Senior Bowl in early February. For right now, he slides in comfortably to Dallas at 26, a team that should use further help along the O-Line.

27. Houston Texans (from Cleveland)

J.T. Tuimoloau, DL, Ohio State

With their third first-rounder, this feels like the perfect spot for Houston to snatch up a disruptive pass rusher, especially considering there's usually one or two that slide into the late first. In this case it's J.T. Tuimoloau, a physical freak who has quite the range he could end up going - anywhere from the mid-first round to late second feels in play at the moment.

28. Detroit Lions

Leonard Taylor, DL, Miami (FL)

Aidan Hutchinson may be a talented young pass rusher, but he's faced constant double teams all season long. It's clear Detroit needs to further bolster their defensive line this offseason, and Leonard Taylor could do just that. He's going to play on the inside in the pros, but can still get after the quarterback, and he feels like one of those prospects that projects better to the NFL than his college production suggests.

29. Miami Dolphins

Amarius Mims, OL, Georgia

The injury bug has struck in Miami but amazingly, Tua Tagovailoa has managed to stay healthy throughout the fall. Instead, it's been the O-Line that has been hit hard, exposing the lack of depth throughout the unit. The Dolphins can change that by taking a piece like Amarius Mims this next spring, a powerful blocker who can fill in at multiple spots.

30. Philadelphia Eagles

Kalen King, CB, Penn State

Cornerback was already considered a need for Philadelphia heading into 2023, and the events of the last month have made it clear that the Eagles need to invest in the position this upcoming offseason. Fortunately, this is a really solid corner draft, even if there isn't an elite No. 1, and they have a chance for a real value play here in Kalen King.

31. Baltimore Ravens

Kamari Lassiter, CB, Georgia

You can always count on Baltimore to find value wherever they're drafting, and Kamari Lassiter would be quite the get at the 31 spot. The former Georgia Bulldog has been overshadowed at times by all the NFL talent on that side of the ball, but he's a sturdy, refined cornerback who still has a high enough ceiling to imagine another leap in the pros.

32. San Francisco 49ers

Jordan Morgan, OT, Arizona

It's often said that just about any quarterback could run Kyle Shanahan's scheme, but San Francisco shouldn't be too eager to find out - they need to keep Brock Purdy healthy. Fortunately there are plenty of options to do so in the late first round, with Arizona's Jordan Morgan jumping out as a high upside guy with room to grow.



Thursday, December 14, 2023

Transfer Portal 2023-24: Ranking the Top 10 Quarterbacks (So Far)

Cam Ward, Washington State

December has become the most crucial month on the college football calendar, not only because of the action on the field, but all the movement away from it. The transfer portal has been churning at a dizzying rate this offseason, with more players looking to move on than ever before - all of which will have a major impact on the National Title race next season, and beyond. Some big names have decided, plenty haven't, and more are likely to enter, but as we stand today these are the Top 10 signal-callers switching schools this winter.

1. Dillon Gabriel

From: Oklahoma --> Oregon

There may be quarterbacks in the portal with more natural arm talent than Dillon Gabriel, or prettier touch with the football. But, there is not another signal-caller on the move this offseason who can come close to Gabriel's college production - through five seasons at both UCF and Oklahoma, he has totaled nearly 16,000 yards of total offense, 151 total touchdowns, and 49 starts. Assuming he can stay healthy this next fall, he's on pace to smash the record of career starts by a quarterback, which is now held by Bo Nix at 61. It just so happens Gabriel will be the one replacing Nix under center, as he travels northwest to Eugene to take over the Duck offense after a pair of stellar seasons with Oklahoma. It's an understandable match - the Ducks want a veteran QB to lead them into a new era of Big Ten football, while Gabriel is looking for a fresh start, with Jackson Arnold the new face of the program at OU. It will be an adjustment as Gabriel moves from the Sooner offense led by now Mississippi State head man Jeff Lebby to the unit currently run by Oregon's Will Stein, but he'll have no shortage of skill position talent around him, on a team with College Football Playoff aspirations. As long as Gabriel can stay healthy, it feels like we're in store for a grand finale from the longtime quarterback in 2024.

2. Riley Leonard

From: Duke --> Notre Dame

For the second straight offseason, Marcus Freeman and Notre Dame raided the ACC to snag an accomplished quarterback to run the show in South Bend. After a solid year from Sam Hartman, they're hoping for even more from Duke's Riley Leonard, who was putting together a special season before an unfortunate injury suffered against ... Notre Dame. Leonard should be back at full strength by the time things kick off in 2024, and he'll give this Irish offense something they've lacked for years - an explosive, dual-threat under center. Leonard ran for 1,224 yards in his Duke career, despite limited action in both 2021 and 2023, and proved that he was a threat to take it to the house every time he dropped back to throw. As a passer, he still has room to grow, and will be working with an Irish receiver corps that is going to completely flip over the offseason, but the tools are there for him to have a major impact in 2024. 

3. Cam Ward

From: Washington State --> TBD

There are few players in college football as entertaining as Cam Ward, who is looking for a new home after an impressive two-year run with Washington State. Ward has dazzling athletic gifts and a fearless mentality, creating plenty of highlight reel plays, as well as plenty of head-scratching moments. You never can be quite sure what you're getting from Ward play-to-play, drive-by-drive, or week-to-week - he is the type of ultimate wild card that makes this sport so engrossing. It's no surprise that he has plenty of suitors, fresh off a 2023 in which he finished with 3,735 passing yards and 33 total touchdowns, but it's unclear which uniform he will be repping in 2024. Ohio State seems to be on the inside track as things stand in mid-December, but it still feels like there could be some fireworks yet to come from Cam Ward this offseason. As with his play on the field, it's best to just sit back and enjoy the ride. 

4. Dante Moore

From: UCLA --> TBD

Contrary to the first three names on the list, who are accomplished college quarterbacks, Dante Moore's rank is all about his potential. The former five-star prospect was a huge get for Chip Kelly and UCLA, and the young quarterback saw a healthy dosage of action in Year One. But, the results were mixed - Moore would finish with 1,610 yards, an 11-9 TD-INT ratio, and a completion percentage of 54% on a Bruins team that slipped to 7-5 on the year. It's not surprising that a freshman quarterback had growing pains, but it also felt that the marriage between Moore and Kelly was always an awkward fit. In turn, it's no surprise that he has since entered the portal and likely has countless suitors lining up for his services. Even with his ups-and-downs, you still saw many of the tools that made Moore such an enticing quarterback prospect. He has a huge arm, moves incredibly well, and has the type of improvisation ability that you simply can't teach at this level. Whoever gets him is landing a talented youngster who has the best of both worlds:  experience, but also two years of eligibility remaining. Moore was previously committed to Oregon coming out of high school and while it doesn't feel like he will end up transferring there, it wouldn't be a shock to see him stay on the West Coast.

5. Will Howard

From: Kansas State --> TBD

After four seasons at Kansas State, Will Howard is officially on the market and looking for his next destination. Howard had a productive career with the Wildcats, breaking through last season in relief duty for the injured Adrian Martinez and finishing with 15 touchdowns. He built on that with a fine campaign this fall, in which he tossed for 2,643 yards and 24 touchdowns, even though K-State was unable to repeat as Big 12 Champs. But with the wise of talented youngster Avery Johnson, Howard saw the writing on the wall and looks to be a one-year rental for a contender come 2024. He's not necessarily a flashy quarterback, but it's not easy to find steady, experienced options like him to fill out a roster. In fact, I think a transfer may actually bring Howard's skill-set even more. It always felt like the Kansas State offense was a bit too ground-and-pound and conservative for him to truly shine. With USC and Miami being two schools rumored to be in the hunt for Howard, his next offensive scheme could look vastly different.

6. Tyler Van Dyke

From: Miami (FL) --> Wisconsin

Tyler Van Dyke was one of the best quarterbacks anywhere in college football in 2021 but after a pair of disappointing seasons in Coral Gables, he'll head north to take over the reigns of the offense in Madison. It's an interesting fit; Van Dyke clearly needed a change of scenery and Wisconsin's hiring of OC Phil Longo prior to 2023 seems to indicate a willingness to open up this offense. Yet, I remain skeptical that Luke Fickell is eager to move away from a style of football that has not only defined the Badgers for decades, but been his preferred play style throughout his coaching tenure. Yet, it feels worth the risk for both sides, as Van Dyke gets a fresh start at a program that desperately needed a quarterback, while Wisconsin gets a boom-or-bust option who could go either direction in 2024.

7. Will Rogers

From: Mississippi State --> TBD

Mike Leach's unfortunate and untimely passing was not only a turning point for Mississippi State football, but a massive change for the guy under center. Will Rogers had put up gaudy stats playing in Leach's Air Raid scheme, but the offense felt lifeless this season en route to a frustrating 5-7 campaign. Injuries played a role, but it was still startling to see Rogers, who had thrown the ball over 600 times each of the last two seasons, attempt just 237 passes in 2023. It's no surprise that he has since decided to move on and play his final year of college ball elsewhere, and plenty remain interested in a proven commodity with multiple years of SEC experience. Washington appears on the inside track as things stand today, as they look for a potential replacement for Michael Penix, but nothing is 100 percent certain at this point in the process. Rogers, who is originally from Mississippi, may have a tough time leaving the SEC, and South in general, behind.

8. Aidan Chiles

From: Oregon State --> Michigan State

It's no surprise that one of Jonathan Smith's first priorities when he got to Michigan State was bringing his highly touted young quarterback with him, and Aidan Chiles officially announced he would be coming along earlier in the week. Chiles may not have the experience of others on this list, as he threw just 35 passes during his lone season in Corvallis, but his physical gifts pop out at you. He's 6'3", 200 pounds with a wiry arm and the ability to make defenders miss with his legs. He seems like an obvious pick for a potential breakout 2024 campaign, although identifying new weapons for him in the passing game will be a chief goal for the Spartan staff over the offseason. It's likely they're going to raid the portal and try to patch something up for Smith's first team in East Lansing.

9. Maalik Murphy

From: Texas --> TBD

With Quinn Ewers potentially coming back for one more season and Arch Manning the guy of the future in Austin, there just wasn't enough space for Maalik Murphy at Texas. However, the redshirt freshman has an opportunity to start at various other Power Five schools in the nation and he now has experience, after stepping in for Ewers for two games this fall. Whoever lands Murphy will be getting a quarterback with three years of eligibility remaining, a guy who is a bit rough around the edges, but has all the tools necessary to be a star at this level. The Longhorn coaching staff clearly thought highly of Murphy and considering Steve Sarkisian's way with quarterbacks, that's quite the endorsement for the talented signal-caller.

10. Kyle McCord

From: Ohio State --> TBD

Kyle McCord's decision to hit the transfer portal was one of the more surprising moves of this year's transfer portal cycle, as he was coming off a season in which he threw for 3,170 yards and 24 touchdowns. Yet, it has become clear that Ohio State was looking for a new face to run the show, and McCord became somewhat of a casualty of the times in the new era of college football. But, the thing is, I think it's going to end up being a positive for his career. The pressure cooker in Columbus is wild, and the fans seemed to have turned on the young quarterback. The Buckeyes have been spoiled with quarterback play over the last decade-plus and McCord had a topsy-turvy lone season as starter, but he was a highly accomplished quarterback prospect who got a chance to learn from some of the best coaches in the sport over the last several seasons. It feels like he's going to kill it wherever he goes, which is now an open mystery after rumors that he was "moving on" with his transfer decision following a visit to Nebraska over the last week.


Just Missed

Grayson McCall, Coastal Carolina --> NC State: Grayson McCall had a legendary run with Coastal Carolina, but his style of play seemed a bit at odds with head coach Tim Beck after a down 2023. He's now making the jump to the Power Five level at NC State, which is a fascinating fit. He's completely different than the past quarterbacks OC Robert Anae has coached, but this could be one of those pairings that works out much better than expected.

D.J. Uiagalelei, Oregon State --> TBD: At this point, the ship has sailed on D.J. Uiagalelei every living up to his five-star billing coming out of high school. But, he has proven he can be a rock-solid, steady leader under center at multiple spots, and I think he was much better than people realize at Oregon State this past fall. There was some thought he may stay inside the state and join his brother at Oregon but with Dillon Gabriel in town, it's likely elsewhere on the West Coast for the older Uiagalelei.

Max Brosmer, New Hampshire --> Minnesota: After leading all FCS passers with 3,459 yards, Max Brosmer will make the jump all the way to the Power Five level at Minnesota. It's a risk for P.J. Fleck and company, but feels like a necessary one after a frustrating 5-7 season that featured a lifeless passing offense. Brosmer will have the advantage of having Minnesota's top target back in action, as Daniel Jackson looks to cement himself as one of the best in the Big Ten in 2024.

Brock Vandagriff, Georgia --> Kentucky: It's been an interesting ride for Brock Vandagriff, who hopes that he's found his home at Kentucky after spending the last several seasons at Georgia. Vandagriff was once pledged to Lincoln Riley and Oklahoma before de-committing (and the Sooners responded by landing some guy named Caleb Williams) and ending up in Athens. He was buried below Stetson Bennett on the depth chart and couldn't beat out Carson Beck prior to the season. With Beck putting up huge numbers, Vandagriff's future in Athens appeared bleak, so his move to Kentucky didn't come as a major shock. He certainly has talent, but it's been a mixed bag for Mark Stoops in taking quarterback transfers during his run in Lexington.

M.J. Morris, NC State --> Maryland: There are few quarterbacks in this year's portal class with the boom-or-bust potential of M.J. Morris. Morris is a former blue-chip prospect who impressed in 2022 when he filled in for the injured Devin Leary, as he threw for 648 yards and finished with a 7-1 TD-INT ratio. The encore wasn't quite what NC State was hoping for - he was beat out by Brennan Armstrong out of camp and when he did play, the results weren't quite as impressive. Even so, Maryland needs a quarterback with Taulia Tagovailoa exhausting his eligibility, and Morris has shown enough to potentially be just what they need in the expanded Big Ten next fall.

Friday, December 8, 2023

Big Ten Power Rankings 2023-24: Edition 1

Zach Edey, Purdue

1. Purdue Boilermakers (8-1 overall, 1-1 Big Ten)

Purdue may have opened up league play with a surprising loss at the hands of Northwestern, but the Boilermakers have already built a resume that has them on the inside track towards a No. 1 seed come Selection Sunday. Wins over Gonzaga, Tennessee, and Marquette demonstrate that Purdue will not only hang among the nation's elite, but that they can defeat opponents with a wide range of play styles. In fact, the Northwestern defeat could actually end up being a positive for the program, providing them the wakeup call they need to overcome a precarious slate before the meat of the Big Ten schedule arrives. That slate includes the nation's new No. 1, Arizona, who will come to Indianapolis to square off against Purdue in the 2023 Indy Classic.

2. Illinois Fighting Illini (7-1 overall, 1-0 Big Ten)

An 18-point victory on the road was a resounding statement from an Illinois team that has serious Big Ten Title aspirations, but even more impressive? The Fighting Illini's encore, when they crushed No. 11 Florida Atlantic in the Jimmy V Classic at Madison Square Garden, 98-89. It feels like both games are indicative of the type of product the Illini will put on the court in 2023-24 - they're going to score plenty of points, but it will be up to their defense to determine their ceiling this winter. If the Rutgers game was any indication, things are looking bright in Champaign - they only forced 10 Scarlet Knight turnovers, but held them to 33% shooting and 58 points.

3. Wisconsin Badgers (7-2 overall, 1-0 Big Ten)

Two losses in their first three games seemed to indicate the same old offensive woes would plague Wisconsin once again this season, but they've quickly turned things around and have been one of the hottest teams in the country over the last month. Beating in-state rival Marquette and then going on the road and handling Michigan State was quite the statement from Greg Gard's club, and the good news? They've done so with sophomore sharpshooter Connor Essegian playing far below 100 percent as he nurses a back injury he sustained in the Tennessee loss. After playing just seven minutes total in the Marquette and MSU wins, the Badgers will be eager to get the youngster back at full strength, as they need him when they travel to Tucson to face Arizona this upcoming weekend.

4. Northwestern Wildcats (6-1 overall, 1-0 Big Ten)

Chris Collins worked his way off the hot seat with an impressive 2022-23 campaign that saw the Wildcats finish tied for second in the league, and it's looking like he's preparing for a grand encore. After a quiet non-conference, the Wildcats opened up Big Ten action with a bang, shocking top-ranked Purdue in Evanston, 92-88. Northwestern did so even with Zach Edey still scoring 35 points, as Boo Buie responded with 31 points of his own, and the Wildcats gained a significant edge in the turnover battle, with just three compared to Purdue's 17. But, in order to prove that they can seriously challenge for league supremacy, Northwestern will have to do more than just pull out one huge victory, and the rest of the non-conference schedule isn't exactly loaded with heavyweights. But, perhaps that should provide this team further momentum before they jump back into Big Ten play with a road tilt against Illinois in early January.

5. Indiana Hoosiers (7-1 overall, 2-0 Big Ten)

Thanks to victories over Maryland and Michigan, it is the Indiana Hoosiers who currently sit atop the Big Ten standings at 2-0. Yet, there's still plenty of work to be done, and the Hoosiers still have plenty to prove in the month of December before league play resumes. But, I will say, this team has a really interesting feel to it, a real throwback in the context of modern college basketball. They're going to lean heavily on their post game, with Kel'el Ware and Malik Reneau as their top two scorers, while true freshman sensation Mackenzie Mgbako continues to acclimate himself to the collegiate game. Mike Woodson has an intriguing situation here, but whether that means the Hoosiers are ready to seriously challenge in the Big Ten remains to be seen.

6. Ohio State Buckeyes (8-1 overall, 1-0 Big Ten)

The disaster that was the 2022-23 campaign for Ohio State always felt like more of a one-off than the beginning of a trend for Chris Holtmann, and the program has responded in a big way so far this winter. They are 8-1 to begin the year and their lone defeat came at the hands of a quality Texas A&M team, albeit at home. A road tilt with Penn State gives them the opportunity to move to 2-0 early on in the Big Ten season, and they'll get a chance for two additional resume-boosting wins in the month of December with UCLA and West Virginia.

7. Michigan State Spartans (4-4 overall, 0-1 Big Ten)

There's no denying that Michigan State has been a massive disappointment up to this point in the year, but more and more this is starting to feel like a typical Tom Izzo season. The Spartans have struggled in the non-conference and lost their Big Ten opener to Wisconsin, but it hasn't been uncommon for the program to take lumps early on before they find their groove over the season's final months. And, the reality is that this team is still extremely talented - Tyson Walker and A.J. Hoggard remain an imposing 1-2 punch in the backcourt, a healthy Malik Hall is a true difference-maker, and the youngsters are going to put it all together eventually. Michigan State may be situated down here at seven at the moment, but it feels like only a matter of time before they quickly ascend these rankings.

8. Maryland Terrapins (5-4 overall, 1-1 Big Ten)

A pair of close, surprising losses to Davidson and UAB seemed to knock Maryland down the Big Ten pecking order, but the Terrapins have responded nicely over the last several weeks. They've taken care of business against the teams they should beat and after losing to Indiana to open up the conference schedule, they won a thriller over Penn State earlier in the week. The offense is clearly still working out some kinks beyond Jahmir Young, but this remains a deep and talented team, and it wouldn't be surprising if they're able to turn things around and get back on track towards making the NCAA Tournament. Plenty of resume-boosting opportunities abound, even if the rest of the non-conference slate remains awfully soft.

9. Iowa Hawkeyes (5-4 overall, 0-1 Big Ten)

Iowa will square off with Michigan over the weekend in a game that will tell us quite a bit about both teams, particularly after underwhelming starts to the 2023-24 campaign. The Hawkeyes have had a rough go of things in the non-conference, fresh off a 25-point loss to their Cy-Hawk rival Iowa State, and lost by 19 on the road to Purdue to open up Big Ten play. We know the Hawkeyes can still score, as they're averaging nearly 88 points per game, but it's a buttery soft defense that has created the 5-4 start. In fact, opponents have scored at least 87 points in three of Iowa's four losses up to this point in the year.

10. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (5-3 overall, 0-1 Big Ten)

Rutgers has celebrated some major wins on the recruiting trail recently, but the product on the court has been less than impressive. An 18-point loss to Illinois at home is at least somewhat understandable considering how hot the Illini have been, but losses to Princeton and Wake Forest seem to indicate this could be a rebuilding campaign in Piscataway. The offense has struggled mightily, and someone needs to emerge if this team has any chance of climbing their way out of the bottom of the Big Ten rankings.

11. Minnesota Golden Gophers (6-3 overall, 1-1 Big Ten)

In just two league games, Minnesota has nearly matched last year's conference win total (two), as they completed an impressive comeback against Nebraska earlier in the week. This team still has notable deficencies, but Dawson Garcia's growth into an All-Big Ten talent gives them a bonafide top scorer, and the depth on the roster has improved significantly. If the young guys, notably Braeden Carrington and Pharrel Payne, continue to grow, this Gopher team could be feisty and potentially open the door for something special in 2024-25.

12. Michigan Wolverines (4-5 overall, 0-1 Big Ten)

Juwan Howard's seat was at least warming prior to the 2023-24 campaign, and a rough start has turned up the temperature in Ann Arbor. The Wolverines have lost three straight entering the weekend, and have quite the stain on their postseason resume with a home defeat to Long Beach State. Perhaps they could turn things around - Howard has done it before - but it just feels like the roster is missing the necessary pieces to do so. Dug McDaniel and Olivier Nkamhoua have carried the offense so far, and it's hard to see if anyone else is going to emerge and turn the tide for the Wolverines.

13. Penn State Nittany Lions (4-5 overall, 0-1 Big Ten)

It wouldn't be surprising if Mike Rhoades' first team in Happy Valley suffers through an up-and-down campaign, although the Nittany Lions nearly went into College Park and pulled out a win against Maryland this week. Kanye Clary and Ace Baldwin Jr., who followed Rhoades from VCU, give this backcourt plenty of punch, but it's the development of the frontcourt that looks to be the X-factor on the season. Qudus Wahab is back in the Big Ten, but the Nittany Lions will need others to step up if they want to survive a league brimming with elite post talent.

14. Nebraska Cornhuskers (7-2 overall, 0-1 Big Ten)

Nebraska's 7-2 record looks a bit more impressive at face value than it actually is, considering they've beat up on a soft non-conference schedule before a pair of losses over the last week. The loss to Creighton at home doesn't feel like a big deal, but the 'Huskers had a chance to close out Minnesota on the road earlier in the week and squandered it. Clearly, Fred Hoiberg's team is still figuring things out, but this team could be dangerous if things come together, making this last-place ranking obsolete. At the very least, guard Keisei Tominaga, who has earned the nickname, "Japanese Steph Curry" gives fans reason to tune in each and every night.