Monday, November 26, 2018

2018 College Football Season Awards

Brian Kelly, Notre Dame
While we will still see conference championships this upcoming weekend, along with bowls and the Playoff, the 2018 college football regular season has come to an inevitable close. Its hard to believe considering it feels like just days ago the season kicked off, but after thirteen weeks fall Saturdays are officially done. With that in mind, I took some time to break down who I think should win the sport's officials awards, along with some unofficial ones. Without further ado, here are my picks for who should take home the college football's most important hardware.

Projected National Champion: Alabama Crimson Tide
While it may seem tiring to the average college football fan seeing Alabama rack up wins, SEC Titles and eventually, National Titles we also have to respect what they've done. Nick Saban has crafted one of the most impressive and consistent dynasties in sports history, and he isn't done just yet. In fact, there is the argument to be made this could be his best Tide team yet. The defense is as suffocating as ever, but the offense has been historical, with a deep stable of stud running backs and the Heisman frontrunner at quarterback. The route to yet another National Title won't be breezy with Clemson and Notre Dame offering plenty of resistance, but picking anyone but 'Bama at this point seems just foolish to me.
Finalists: Clemson, Notre Dame, Oklahoma (projected Playoff field)

Coach of the Year: Brian Kelly, Notre Dame
Brian Kelly's tenure in South Bend has been streaky and uneven at times, but there is no denying the superb job Kelly has done in 2018 with the Fighting Irish. Kelly had to deal with the loss of his rising defensive coordinator Mike Elko, who took a big pay increase this off-season at Texas A&M, and a number of key losses on the offensive side of the ball. Despite this, Notre Dame has put together a perfect 12-0 record that has included impressive victories over Michigan, Stanford and Syracuse. One of the main reasons for their success was the mid-season switch at QB, as Kelly opted to turn to Ian Book instead of veteran Brandon Wimbush. It was a bold move considering Wimbush was more proven, but it has worked wonders for this ND offense, and a big reason why Kelly takes home Coach of the Year honors.
Finalists: Nick Saban (Alabama), Mark Stoops (Kentucky), Lincoln Riley (Oklahoma)

Biletnikoff Award (best receiver): Tylan Wallace, Oklahoma State
How did Oklahoma State respond to the losses of Mason Rudolph, James Washington Jr. and a number of other playmakers this off-season? Simply by finding sophomore Tylan Wallace, who was little used in 2017, but has exploded onto the scene this fall. Wallace has caught 79 passes for 1,408 yards (with 11 touchdowns) and consistently made huge plays for the Cowboys. That included huge performances against Texas in a win (222 receiving yards) and rival Oklahoma (220) that should help lock down this award. The impressive thing about Wallace is that he could be even better in the near future, considering this was only his second season in the collegiate ranks.
Finalists: Jerry Jeudy (Alabama), Andy Isabella (UMass)

Doak Walker Award (best RB): Jonathan Taylor, Wisconsin
This has been an extremely disappointing 2018 for Wisconsin, who has slipped to a 7-5 record one season after coming within inches of the Playoff, but that has not been the case for Jonathan Taylor. The sophomore has had a wonderful encore to a breakout freshman campaign, rushing for 1,989 yards and 15 touchdowns. Much like Wallace, Taylor has been crucial in a number of the Badgers' victories. This includes posting 253 yards against New Mexico, 221 against Nebraska and 208 against Rutgers, where he was one time committed. It hasn't been a banner year for running backs, but Taylor has done enough to certainly still earn some hardware.
Finalists: Travis Etienne (Clemson), Darrell Henderson (Memphis)

Davey O'Brien Award (best QB): Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama
There was some question whether Tua Tagovailoa would live to the preseason hype we was receiving this off-season following a magical comeback win against Georgia in last year's National Championship. He has answered those questions and then some, throwing for 3,189 yards and 36 touchdowns with just two interceptions. Those stats aren't quite as gaudy as some past O'Brien Award winners, but considering Tagovailoa has sat a number of fourth quarters with Alabama winning in blow outs, its still impressive.
Finalists: Kyler Murray (Oklahoma), Gardner Minshew II (Washington State)

Breakout Player of the Year: Kyler Murray, QB, Oklahoma
A former five-star recruit who originally signed at Texas A&M, big things were expected of Kyler Murray taking over Baker Mayfield's reigns in Norman. Murray certainly has not disappointed, with 3,674 yards through the air and 48 total touchdowns (37 passing, 11 rushing), while proving to be one of the most explosive players we've seen at the position in years. Murray's impact has certainly been felt at Oklahoma, as he has helped them overcome an atrocious defense to go 11-1 and once more return to the Big 12 Championship. Amazingly, this will be Murray's final year of college football, as he recently reaffirmed his plans to join the Oakland Athletics organization after going in the first-round of the MLB Draft this past summer.
Finalists: Tylan Wallace, WR (Oklahoma State), Gardner Minshew II, QB (Washington State), Rondale Moore, WR (Purdue), Dwayne Haskins, QB (Ohio State)

Freshman of the Year: Rondale Moore, WR, Purdue
There were some folks who openly questioned why former four-star recruit Rondale Moore chose to stay close to home and play at Purdue, who for years has been a mediocre program in the Big Ten. With his true freshman season now in the books, its hard to argue Moore made the wrong decision. The speedy wide out burst onto the scene with two touchdowns in the first week of the season, and finished with 1,164 receiving yards and 13 total scores. That included a magical showing in a primetime upset of Ohio State, which led many to start mentioning Moore in the Heisman conversation.
Finalists: Trevor Lawrence, QB (Clemson), Micah Parsons, LB (Penn State), Jermar Jefferson, RB (Oregon State)

Chuck Bednarik/Bronko Nagurski Award (defensive MVP): Quinnen Williams, DL, Alabama
It isn't a secret Alabama produces star defenders year in year out, and this latest defense isn't short of future NFL Draft selections. However, the clear-cut best player on this defense has to be sophomore Quinnen Williams, who had a dominant 2018. On the season, Williams finished with 58 tackles, 16 tackles for loss and seven sacks. He looked absolutely unblockable in a number of games this year, including embarrassing LSU earlier in the year. There is zero doubt Williams is going to be a high NFL Draft pick this upcoming spring, and he has the potential to get even better.
Finalists: Christian Wilkins, DL (Clemson), Josh Allen, LB (Kentucky)

Heisman: Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama
As I mentioned earlier, Tua has put up incredibly impressive numbers all season long, and there shouldn't be much doubt he will be hoisting the Heisman Trophy in New York in a few weeks. Tagovailoa is undoubtedly the best player on college football's best team, and his dominance this year has seemed to be almost easy. He has consistently decimated great defenses, including a showing against LSU earlier in the season where he had a 44-yard TD run that certainly looked like a Heisman moment.
Finalists: Kyler Murray, QB (Oklahoma), Will Grier, QB (West Virginia)

Other Minor Awards
Most Impressive Group of Five: UCF
Coordinator of the Year: Ryan Day, OC, Ohio State
Jim Thorpe (best defensive back): Greedy Williams, CB, LSU
Outland Trophy (best interior linemen): Christian Wilkins, DL, Clemson
John Mackey Award (best tight end): T.J. Hockenson, Iowa

Friday, November 23, 2018

College Football Picks 2018: Week Thirteen

Karan Higdon, Michigan
(#4) Michigan Wolverines @ (#10) Ohio State Buckeyes
For the first time in years and years, Michigan is not only a favorite against Ohio State, but a favorite on the road. The Wolverines have won ten consecutive games, and have asserted themselves as the clear favorite in the Big Ten. With that being said, there is nothing quite like the UM-OSU rivalry, and the Buckeyes will be ready. Ohio State needs to find a solution to their defensive woes, which were especially evident last weekend against Maryland. Ohio State will have to contain a Wolverines' rushing attack led by backs Karan Higdon and Chris Evans, while also figuring out a way to contain QB Shea Patterson. Patterson has been incredibly efficient over the course of this season, and he has some real weapons on the perimeter, namely Donovan Peoples-Jones and a healthy Tarik Black. This Michigan team will still play physical and run the ball, but expect Jim Harbaugh to try and attack this precarious OSU secondary. If they can get some big plays on the outside, the Buckeyes are really going to be in a tough position keeping up offensively. Either way, Ohio State will need a big day from record-setting quarterback Dwayne Haskins Jr. Haskins has put up big numbers all season long and has benefitted from a very deep and talented receivers corps, but this game will be a tough challenge for the redshirt sophomore. UM plays a lot of physical man-to-man coverage, and coordinator Don Brown is one of the most creative defensive minds in the sport. He is going to bring the blitz early and often, and force Haskins to beat him over the top. A major factor to watch in this one has to be the health of All-American defensive end Chase Winovich; Winovich was beat up in a victory against Indiana last weekend, but there is still hope he can play in this one. Even if he can't go, the Wolverines will get plenty of pass rushing help from a healthy Rashan Gary and linebacker Devin Bush. Ohio State is also going to need to find a way to get their rushing attack going, which has been surprisingly mediocre throughout 2018. J.K. Dobbins has the talent to do serious damage and he played well a year ago, but the Buckeyes still lack a consistent rushing attack. If they can figure that out, they should have enough offensively to deal with their serious defensive problems. Michigan has not beat the Buckeyes in Columbus in nearly two decades, but this game just has a different feeling this season. Haskins should be enough to keep OSU in it, but this Michigan team is much better up and down their roster, and they enter with all the momentum. Picking the Wolverines to do something they haven't done in 18 years may be borderline crazy, but I'm just that confident in this year's UM squad.
The Pick: Michigan, 38 Ohio State, 28

Auburn Tigers @ (#1) Alabama Crimson Tide
Few rivalries in college football are as intense as the annual Iron Bowl, and things should be especially crazy this season with Alabama searching for vengeance after last year's loss to Auburn. This year, the Tide are the unquestionable favorite, but they still won't get anything easy against the Tigers. Alabama is led by an explosive offense, with QB Tua Tagovailoa, a deep running back core and some potent receivers, including Biletnikoff Finalist Jerry Jeudy. This offense has balance, experience and playmaking at every level, and Tagovailoa has not shown any signs of stopping. He will face off against a strong Auburn defensive front, that has a number of future NFL defenders, but that hasn't intimidated the sophomore before, and Auburn's secondary has been streaky all season long. This could be the icing on the cake for Tagovailoa's Heisman candidacy with a huge day. For the Tigers, any hopes of an upset will include a big day from their offense, namely quarterback Jarrett Stidham. Stidham played superb football in the Tigers' upset win over 'Bama a year ago but he has had a streaky 2018, and he faces a fearless Alabama defense. That Alabama defense has stars at every single level, beginning with the defensive front, spearheaded by Raekwon Davis and Quinnen Williams, who will very soon be playing on Sundays. On the back-end, the Tide feature rangy linebackers Mack Wilson and Dylan Moses while the secondary has some really impressive young talent, including rapidly improving true freshman Patrick Surtain Jr. Auburn needs some help from their ground game, which has been pretty disappointing for much of the year. JaTarvious Whitlow and company have had some moments, but they'll need to break open up some big runs to really open up this game. I never think rivalry games are going to be blow outs because the emotion and passion usually means the games end up being close. With that in mind, I think Auburn can keep this competitive but upsetting the Tide on the road? That just isn't going to happen in 2018.
The Pick: Alabama, 42 Auburn, 27

(#7) LSU Tigers @ (#22) Texas A&M Aggies
Neither LSU nor Texas A&M will be playing for an SEC Title or anything similar when they meet up tomorrow, but the two still hope to end their regular season with some much-needed momentum. LSU still has a great shot to end their season with double-digit victories, which seemed like a lofty goal entering 2018 with their schedule. Quarterback Joe Burrow was unable to get LSU over the top to beat Alabama, but he has still proven himself all of 2018. He continues to play efficient football, and has shown he can get this offense rolling when needed. Texas A&M will need to find a way to contain running back Nick Brossette, who has 861 yards and 13 scores on the season. The Aggies have seen massive improvement on the defensive side of the ball under the leadership of new coordinator Mike Elko, but this could still be a tough matchup for them. A&M will also have to contain LSU's plethora of receiving options, namely veteran Justin Jefferson. For LSU, the key will be containing the Aggies' ground game, especially running back Trayveon Williams. Williams has excelled in Jimbo Fisher's new pro-style attack, rushing to the tune of 1,326 yards on the season. The Tigers will counter with their fabulous front seven, including All-American linebacker Devin White, and their ball-hawking secondary. Texas A&M is going to need quarterback Kellen Mond to make some difficult throws. Mond has had some moments so far in 2018, but this LSU secondary may very well be the toughest he has seen all year long, with the lone exception being Alabama. The Tigers feature future first-round NFL Draft selection Greedy Williams at corner, along with safeties John Battle and Grant Delpit. The key for A&M will be not turning the ball over and maintaining possession, something they've done well in each of their seven victories in '18. This game is not as heated as a rivalry as some of the other ones sure to be exciting this weekend, but it should still be a hard-fought, close battle. I'll stick with LSU to avoid a road upset here; the defense is strong enough to stop the Aggies and Burrow should be just enough to help the Tigers come away with their tenth win of the year.
The Pick: LSU, 28 Texas A&M, 24

Other Picks
South Carolina @ (#2) Clemson: Clemson, 38 South Carolina, 21
(#3) Notre Dame @ USC: Notre Dame, 33 USC, 20
(#11) Florida @ Florida State: Florida, 27 Florida State, 17
Georgia Tech @ (#5) Georgia: Georgia, 35 Georgia Tech, 20
Minnesota @ Wisconsin: Wisconsin, 24 Minnesota, 21

Current Picks Record: 67-21


Wednesday, November 14, 2018

Coaching Carousel 2018: Who Should Replace Coaches on the Hot Seat?

Jeff Brohm, Purdue to Louisville(?)
The college football season is already drawing close to a conclusion in 2018, and there's sure to be plenty of interesting things set to develop. The coaching carousel began its inevitable spinning these past weekends, namely with the firing of David Beaty at Kansas. The Jayhawks will now embark on their fourth head coach since 2009, but they are far from the only program looking for a fresh start. A few other coaching hires could greatly shift the landscape and have major implications down the line.

Louisville Cardinals: Bobby Petrino (fired)
Bobby Petrino was somewhat of a controversial hire for a second stint at Louisville, but he was able to overcome some of the issues with wins. However, Petrino underachieved with Lamar Jackson, with his best season with the Heisman Trophy winner was a 9-4 mark that fell off down the stretch,. Defense has been the biggest issue on Petrino's recent 2-8 team, and it eventually led the Cardinals to move on. This is an interesting job because it certainly is a place you can win, but overcoming Clemson in the ACC Atlantic will be an awfully large test for whoever comes in.
Projected Replacement: Jeff Brohm, Purdue
Brohm already replaced Petrino once when he took over Western Kentucky after Petrino took the Louisville job in 2014. He is a no-brainer to take over once again, considering he played QB for Louisville in his playing days and was later an assistant. Brohm did just take over Purdue, but he has already proven he can quickly engineer a turnaround. With the talent the Cardinals can recruit, he could win big there.
Other Possibility: Ryan Day, Ohio State OC
Day has already made a name for himself as a superb offensive mind, and he showed just how good he could be leading the Buckeyes when Urban Meyer was suspended. Ohio State seemed to play better and more aggressively under Day, who has done a great job getting this passing attack churning again. He could be an ideal hire from the area for the Cards.
Other Possibility: Neal Brown, Troy HC
Would Louisville go the Sun Belt to land a rising name in Neal Brown? It isn't unreasonable to rule out, considering what Brown has done with the Trojans. His upset win over LSU on their Homecoming last year was just a preview. He also has strong Southeast ties, which could expand Louisville's recruiting base.

Kansas Jayhawks: David Beaty (fired)
Nobody was going to win at Kansas considering what Beaty inherited following the Charlie Weis era. David Beaty had some moments, beating Texas two seasons ago and the team seemed to be making somewhat of an ascent, although 3-6 was still underwhelming. Kansas made the move, and new athletic director Jeff Long (formerly at Arkansas) will not get his own guy at the position.
Projected Replacement: Les Miles, former LSU HC
This seems almost crazy imagining Les Miles stalking the sideline in Lawrence, but it just might work. Miles is a big enough name that he would immediately jolt the program, and his energy is something this program might desperately need. He might be slightly out of place away from the confines of the SEC, but he won at Oklahoma State prior to LSU. He is going to be able to recruit from Texas and the South, and get some athletes Jayhawk football has lacked for some time.
Other Possibility: Seth Littrell, North Texas HC
If I'm long, my first call is actually to Littrell, a superb offensive mind that has done a great job with the Mean Green. Littrell went 5-8 his first year in Denton before a 9-win 2017 and his current edition is once more in the Conference USA Title hunt. Littrell is of the Larry Fedora coaching tree and well his former predecessor might be getting canned himself at North Carolina, Littrell is thriving. His offense seems to be the optimum in today's college football, and he is still a young guy.

North Carolina: Larry Fedora
My first prediction on who would get fired in the Power Five was actually Larry Fedora, and while he nearly won an ACC Title in 2016, it seems time for new blood in Chapel Hill. UNC cratered at 3-9 last season before a 1-8 start to 2018 that has been about as depressing and deflating as you can get. Fedora has done a decent job with his offense, but he has missed the touch of former defensive coordinator Gene Chizik who retired following '16. I think Seth Littrell may be a possibility here, although the Tar Heels could be hesitant to go with a guy so similar to Fedora. For that reason, I think they go elsewhere with this new hire.
Projected Replacement: Willie Fritz, Tulane HC
The American Athletic Conference has become a gold mine for rising head coaches, and the next one up seems to be Fritz, who is at Tulane currently. Fritz runs a triple-option attack with the Green Wave, which he also ran previously at Georgia Southern. Its different, but we see it in the ACC Coastal right now (Georgia Tech) and with better athletes, Fritz may adjust accordingly. Either way, its a complete culture change with Fritz, who could be the new blood necessary to make this team stand out in college basketball country.
Other Possibility: Brent Venables, Clemson DC
He doesn't get the attention of Dabo Swinney, but I think defensive coordinator Brent Venables has been just as crucial in Clemson's rise to power program. He has consistently had to replace NFL departures and the Tigers don't miss a beat, which hasn't changed in 2018. While the game may be moving more up-tempo and even more fast-paced Venables has adjusted, and he could be a much different look than a Fedora guy. Moving inside the conference could be interesting for Venables, but this job has significant upside.

Rutgers: Chris Ash
Winning in the Big Ten East is going to be difficult no matter who the head coach is at Rutgers, but Chris Ash just simply hasn't gotten the job done. After a dismal debut season there seemed to be some progress in 2017, as the Scarlet Knights went 4-8 and actually won a few conference games. That hasn't materialized into anything this season, as Rutgers sits at 1-9 and 0-7 in the Big Ten. To make matters worse, the Scarlet Knights were blown out by Kansas in the non-conference, a team that has been the laughing stock of Power Five football for nearly a decade. Ash is a fine defensive coordinator, but he just hasn't shown the progress necessary to ensure a fourth year in Piscataway, New Jersey.
Projected Replacement: Lance Leipold, Buffalo HC
I imagine Rutgers staying in the Northeast with this hire, and there isn't a whole lot of names in the region bigger than Lance Leipold. Leipold has won everywhere he has gone, including his recent turnaround at Buffalo, who is currently 9-1 and ready to win a MAC Title. Prior to that, Leipold led one of the top programs in Division III football at Wisconsin-Whitewater, where he managed more National Titles than losses in eight years. This seems like a very logical step up for the rising head coach.
Other Possibility: Jeff Monken, Army HC
In my opinion, Jeff Monken may be the one of the most underrated head coaches in FBS football. He does run a triple-option offense, but there is no denying how well it has worked in previous stops at Georgia Southern and now at Army. Georgia Southern went to three straight FCS Playoff semifinals under his guidance, and after some turbulent early times, Army is going to have their third straight season of eight or more victories. Much like Willie Fritz, it'll be interesting to see whether Monken adjusts his offense if he were to get a promotion, but the triple-option in the Big Ten East? Its so crazy it may just work out.

Colorado: Mike MacIntyre
Since moving to the Pac-12, Colorado has struggled to return to the heights they once were at in the old Big 12. With the exception of a magical 2016 year where they won the Pac-12 South and were in the Playoff hunt for much of the season, the Buffaloes have consistently finished near the bottom of the standings. That has been the case once again in 2018, as a 5-0 start has given way to five consecutive losses that have CU sitting at sixth in the division. If that holds, it'll ensure Colorado has finished last in the division five out of MacIntyre's six seasons in Boulder. MacIntyre inherited a tough rebuild, but that just isn't going to cut it.
Projected Replacement: Rocky Long, San Diego State HC
Rocky Long has built one of the Group of Five's most consistent programs in San Diego State, who is set to make their eighth straight bowl appearance. Long has also won three Mountain West Titles with the Aztecs and produced a solid crop of NFL talent, showing an amazing ability to recruit a competitive region and develop the young talent there. He has been at SDSU for some time so a jump to the Pac-12 might not even be on his radar, but he'd be a superb hire for Colorado. It might not be the flashy hire some Buffs' fans would yearn for, but I think Long would win big in Boulder.
Other Possibility: Alex Grinch, Ohio State co-DC
Grinch just got a promotion this past off-season, jumping from Washington State defensive coordinator to the same spot at Ohio State, and I think a head coaching gig may soon be in the cards. Grinch did a superb job with Washington State, and his innovative defensive schemes have earned them the utmost respect in the sport. He doesn't have Pac-12 roots beyond the WSU years, but he has proven he can defend the league, and I think he'll be able to recruit. This could be an out-of-the-box, successful hire Colorado desperately needs.


Other Names to Watch on the Hot Seat
Lovie Smith, Illinois
Clay Helton, USC
Randy Edsall, UConn
Derek Mason, Vanderbilt
Bob Davie, New Mexico
Kalani Sitake, BYU
Paul Johnson, Georgia Tech

Other Coaches set for promotions
Dave Aranda, LSU DC
Jim Leonhard, Wisconsin DC
Clark Lea, Notre Dame DC
Bill Clark, UAB HC
Scott Satterfield, Appalachian State HC
Matt Wells, Utah State HC
Luke Fickell, Cincinnati HC
Chris Creighton, Eastern Michigan HC

Friday, November 9, 2018

College Football Picks 2018: Week Eleven

Trevor Lawrence, Clemson
(#2) Clemson Tigers @ (#17) Boston College Eagles
With a few weeks still remaining in the regular season, Clemson appears to be a near lock to make the Playoff, but they must avoid a possible trap game on the road against Boston College. The Eagles are a worthy opponent, and it isn't unreasonable to think they can play off an upset. In order to do that, they'll have to find a way to contain Clemson's explosive offense, which can create big plays almost at will. True freshman quarterback Trevor Lawrence has been superb since taking over the full-time starting gig, and he has a plethora of weapons to work with. Tee Higgins and Amari Rodgers are elite receivers that will be a huge problem to a group of BC defensive backs that are still pretty inexperienced and have been inconsistent much of the season. The Eagles will also have to find a way to contain running back Travis Etienne, who has become a serious Heisman threat. Despite being Clemson's feature back, Etienne is averaging an eye-popping 8.6 yards per carry, and he can score every time he touches the ball. If Boston College doesn't do a good job of tackling in space, Etienne and company are going to absolutely kill them. Offensively, Boston College should also rely on their own ground game, which is spearheaded by powerful sophomore A.J. Dillon. Dillon hasn't been completely healthy most of the year, but he still has managed 897 yards and eight scores on the season. Yet, he has yet to face a Clemson defensive front quite like the Tigers; which includes four future NFL linemen along with some tantalizing young guys, such as freshman Xavier Thomas. Boston College is really going to need QB Anthony Brown to step up and make some big throws to open up this offense. Brown has talent, but this a very talented defense and he'll need to have the game of his life to overcome them. On the outside, wide out Kobay White and tight end Tommy Sweeney will help out, but they must face a physical Clemson secondary that knows how to force turnovers. Conference games late in the year on the road are always precarious, and I wouldn't rule out the upset here. Yet, I'm sticking with Clemson, whose offense will probably just be too overwhelming for the Eagles to contain.
The Pick: Clemson, 38 Boston College, 24

(#10) Ohio State Buckeyes @ (#18) Michigan State Spartans
While Michigan now appears to be the favorite in the Big Ten, Ohio State is not dead just yet, and they could begin a Playoff run with a quality road win against Michigan State here. The Buckeyes still have a proven quarterback in Dwayne Haskins, who has slowed down slightly down the stretch but still has the arm and mobility to do real damage. There are other real playmakers on this offense, but they've also been struggling as of late. The run game, in particular, has slowed to a screeching halt despite the immense talent Ohio State possesses. J.K. Dobbins still has the talent to do some serious damage, and Mike Weber is a short-yardage monster. However, it remains to be seen if they can figure things out against a Spartans defense that is among the best in the entire Big Ten. Sure-handed K.J. Hill and do-it-all Parris Campbell are other options to work with, but Michigan State has proven over the years they can contain them. The biggest issue for Ohio State over the last couple weeks has been their defense, which has really struggled against Purdue and Nebraska. The good news is that MSU's offense isn't exactly top-notch, and they've had issues moving the ball for most of 2018. The Buckeyes have sorely missed defensive end Nick Bosa, their most dominant pass rusher. Without his assistance, OSU has really struggled to get pressure on opponents, which has in-turn exposed some of their issues in the secondary. They've had some real issues tackling in space and forcing turnovers, which could be a huge problem here. Its still unclear who will start at quarterback for Michigan State, but whether its Brian Lewerke or Rocky Lombardi the gameplan will likely be the same. They'll run the ball early and often, and then hit Ohio State with their play-action passing game. Connor Heyward and La'Darius Jefferson will be a load to handle on the ground, while Felton Davis III and Cody White can open things up on the perimeter. This is going to be an interesting duel between two teams with opposing strengths. Talent-wise the Buckeyes probably have the upper-hand, but their recent struggles have me going with the Spartans at home here. They'll slow down Ohio State's offense enough to secure a close victory.
The Pick: Michigan State, 28 Ohio State, 27

(#16) Mississippi State Bulldogs @ (#1) Alabama Crimson Tide
After absolutely dismantling LSU 29-0 last weekend, Alabama is undeniably the favorite to win it all this season. However, they'll have to avoid a hangover game in Bryant-Denny against a sneaky Mississippi State squad. The Bulldogs' defense will be in store for quite a difficult game, having to face the Heisman frontrunner, Tua Tagovailoa, along with a bunch of other stars. Tagovailoa showed that elite defenses still struggle to stop him with his superb showing against LSU, and this Mississippi State team doesn't quite have the playmakers on the back-end the Tigers have. The good news is that the Bulldogs' defensive front is very stingy, and they'll put up a fighting chance against running back Damien Harris and this terrific 'Bama O-Line. Jeffery Simmons causes absolute chaos in the middle of the defensive line, while outside 'backer Montez Sweat will have to get in Tua's face and force him into mistakes, which is easier said than done. On the other side of the ball, Alabama's defense is possibly even better, stocked to the brim with future NFL talent. On the defensive line, Quinnen Williams and Raekwon Davis are a pair of All-American talents and the defensive backfield seems to only be getting better, despite some notable inexperience. Former LSU transfer Saivion Smith had a great game last Saturday, and true freshman Patrick Surtain Jr. seems like he has been playing SEC football for years. New Mississippi State head coach Joe Moorhead is known for his offensive expertise, but this Bulldogs offense has been incredibly streaky all year long. QB Nick Fitzgerald is a veteran leader who knows how to win in this league, but he still leaves plenty to be desired through the air. Others are going to have to step up on this offense, most notably running back Kylin Hill or receivers Osirus Mitchell and Stephen Guidry. The Bulldogs offensive line is also going to need to get some push, something nearly all of Alabama's opponents have struggled to do this season. If Miss. State can't get some type of rushing attack going, any chance of an upset go out the window. The Bulldogs played the Tide incredibly tough a season ago, and they have the talent to at least make this one competitive. Yet, I would have to be absolutely insane to pick against this Alabama team with the way they're playing, especially at home. I like 'Bama to win pretty comfortably in front of the home folk here.
The Pick: Alabama, 42 Mississippi State, 23

Other Picks
Florida State @ (#3) Notre Dame: Notre Dame, 34 Florida State, 20
(#24) Auburn @ (#5) Georgia: Georgia, 30 Auburn, 27
(#7) LSU @ Arkansas: LSU, 27 Arkansas, 16
Oklahoma State @ (#6) Oklahoma: Oklahoma, 51 Oklahoma State, 38
TCU @ (#9) West Virginia: West Virginia, 35 TCU, 21

Current Picks Record: 61-19

Wednesday, November 7, 2018

Post-Week Ten College Football Power Rankings

Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama
1. Alabama Crimson Tide -- A 29-0 dismantling of third-ranked LSU on the road erased any doubt that they are the best team in the country. The offense continues to play well but the defense is playing even better with defensive end Quinnen Williams leading the charge.
2. Clemson Tigers -- Much like Alabama, Clemson impressed this past Saturday, pounding Louisville 77-16. Youngsters Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne have the offense rolling, but they'll need even more players to step up if they want a legitimate shot at overthrowing the Crimson Tide.
3. Michigan Wolverines -- Its time to give Michigan the credit they deserve; the Wolverines have dominated three straight ranked opponents, including a 42-7 victory over Penn State this weekend. The defense is at an elite-level, but Shea Patterson's growth at quarterback has been the major reason for their recent tear.
4. Notre Dame Fighting Irish -- Its never easy going on the road to face a sneaky Northwestern team, but ND did just that and came away with an important win. The only significant challenge awaiting them is a matchup with Syracuse, which will pit an explosive offense against Notre Dame's physical defensive front.
5. Georgia Bulldogs -- Georgia avoided an upset against Kentucky on Saturday to clinch the SEC East for the second consecutive year. This team hasn't been very consistent, but they seem to be trending up at the right time, particularly if Jake Fromm can establish some more consistency week to week.
6. Oklahoma Sooners -- Road games in the Big 12 can sometimes get really weird, but the Sooners avoided losing in Lubbock this Saturday, keeping them as the favorite in the conference. They'll have two winnable games before they go on the road against West Virginia, which very well could be a Big 12 Championship Game preview.
7. Washington State Cougars -- Mike Leach has worked some magic with this Washington State team. Despite entering the year having an unproven transfer at quarterback, significant losses at receiver and very little experience defensively, WSU is 8-1 with their lone loss coming by three to USC. They still lack a signature win, but the Cougars are playing undeniably superb football right now.
8. West Virginia Mountaineers -- Will Grier may have forced himself back into the Heisman conversation with a beautiful throw to eventually beat Texas (after the two-point conversion). He also pushed West Virginia back into the Big 12 Title and Playoff hunt, although the defense continues to struggle.
9. LSU Tigers -- This looked like the year LSU was finally going to push Alabama, but instead they walked away on Saturday with their second loss of the year. There is no denying LSU's resume, and the defense is still stocked with talent, but a New Year's Six Bowl is almost certainly the ceiling for this team now.
10. UCF Knights -- The Knights got quite a challenge from Temple in an interesting weekday duel, but they managed to stay flawless. However, they have been hurt by recent losses by Cincinnati and South Florida; if both had managed to stay undefeated longer it would've greatly helped any UCF Playoff hopes.
11. Ohio State Buckeyes -- I'm not ready to rule out Ohio State just yet, considering their astounding talent on both sides of the ball, but there is no denying the team is struggling. The defense in particular has been problematic, and will need reinforcements if the Buckeyes have any hopes of repeating as Big Ten Champ.
12. Kentucky Wildcats -- Kentucky knows they won't be playing for an SEC Title this season, but the schedule is still very favorable down the stretch. If the Wildcats can win out, they have a chance to play in their most important bowl game in some time.
13. Syracuse Orange -- I am tentatively buying into this Syracuse team. They have an explosive offense with veteran leadership everywhere, and their two losses were both close on the road. They still have an outside chance to compete for a New Year's Six Bowl.
14. Mississippi State Bulldogs -- Mississippi State is entering their meeting with Alabama playing great football, coming off a 45-3 dismantling of Louisiana Tech. Their defense continues to play well, but they need Nick Fitzgerald to make some plays if they stand any chance at toppling Alabama.
15. Boston College Eagles -- The Eagles could really throw a wrench into the Playoff situation if they can come up with a home upset of Clemson this Saturday. It obviously won't be easy, but a healthy A.J. Dillon and a stingy defense certainly give them a fighting chance.
16. Florida Gators -- Despite losing by three touchdowns to an okay Missouri team, I still like this Gators team. They still hold an ultra-important win over LSU, and the defense is unquestionably terrific. Now, can they figure out the QB situation? Its looking like Kyle Trask is set to take over, but I bet we continue seeing more of true freshman Emory Jones.
17. Texas Longhorns -- The Longhorns aren't at the level we thought they might be after beating Oklahoma, but their last two losses easily could've gone the other way. They need D-coordinator Todd Orlando to start living up to his luxurious salary and lead a defense that is giving up way too many big plays.
18. Utah State Aggies -- Fresno State may be the lone Mountain West team ranked in the Playoff rankings, but I think Utah State is the real favorite in the conference. They've won eight straight (their only loss on the year is to Michigan State) and the offense has been nearly unstoppable, eclipsing 40 points in seven of their nine games.
19. Michigan State Spartans -- The Spartans certainly won't be playing for a Big Ten Title, but they have recovered nicely from a deflating loss to rival Michigan, by beating Purdue and Maryland in consecutive weeks. The defense has been elite, but MSU has to figure out how to move the ball if they want to take down Ohio State at home this weekend.
20. Penn State Nittany Lions -- They're coming off a 35-point loss, but I still think PSU is a Top 20 team. Trace McSorley has been beat up for a big chunk of the season, and he hasn't had a ton of help on the offensive end. It'll be interesting to see whether the coaching staff turns to longtime backup Tommy Stevens this weekend to give McSorley a much needed break.
21. Fresno State Bulldogs -- If not for a close loss to Minnesota on the road, Fresno State would be undefeated and likely challenging UCF for Group of Five supremacy. Head coach Jeff Tedford has an absolute stud on his hands in QB Marcus McMaryion, who will have to play well this week against a strong Boise State defense.
22. NC State Wolfpack -- Personally, I don't understand NC State being ranked at 14 in the latest Playoff ranking. Granted, they are 6-2, but their best win is probably over Virginia and they were absolutely no competition to the best team in the conference, losing by 34 against Clemson. The good news is that their schedule is a breeze down the stretch, meaning that ten games is a distinct possibility.
23. Iowa State Cyclones -- Oklahoma-West Virginia looks like a near lock as the Big 12 Championship Game, but don't count out Iowa State just yet. The Cyclones are playing terrific at the moment, as Hakeem Butler may one of the most dominant receivers in the entire country and is making NFL scouts flock to Ames.
24. Washington Huskies -- After a depressing 12-10 loss on the road to California, Washington recovered by running past Stanford to improve to 7-3. They aren't going to overtake their in-state rivals in the division, but spoiling any Playoff hopes for Washington State would be just as sweet.
25. Buffalo Bulls -- UCF, Fresno and Utah State may be getting more love from the polls, but Buffalo is quietly 9-1 and could challenge for a NY6 Bowl as well. Senior wide out Anthony Johnson is almost sure to be a pretty high NFL Draft selection this spring, and head coach Lance Leipold will almost certainly be on the radar for a number of Power Five teams looking for replacements.

Others to Consider
Auburn Tigers
Army Black Knights
Iowa Hawkeyes
Utah Utes
UAB Blazers
Wisconsin Badgers

Friday, November 2, 2018

College Football Picks 2018: Week Ten

Nick Brossette, LSU
(#1) Alabama Crimson Tide @ (#3) LSU Tigers
Despite the fact Alabama has dominated the rivalry as of late, the Alabama-LSU battle is always important, and consistently pits top-tier talent against each other in typical brutish SEC fashion. Alabama has looked unstoppable over the first nine weeks of the season, but they have not faced a challenge quite like the Tigers, whose defense is top-notch and has a much improved offense. The unquestioned face of Alabama football right now is QB Tua Tagovailoa, who looks ready to coast to a Heisman unless somebody stops him. Tua's stats are downright mind-boggling: 2,066 yards, 27 total touchdowns, 70% completion percentage and zero interceptions. His huge arm has added a different element to this Tide offense and the results speak for themselves, as 'Bama has the best offense in school history, notching 54.1 PPG. Tua will be tossing the ball around to a dynamic receivers corps spearheaded by Jerry Jeudy and Jaylen Waddle, but its important to note what defense he is facing. LSU is stocked on the back-end, with stud defenders Greedy Williams and Grant Delpit guarding their territory. You can bet the Tigers are tired of hearing about Tagovailoa, and are going to be aggressive in stopping him. They'll have to do so without star linebacker Devin White, as a target penalty from last week ensures he'll miss the first half of this one. That could be crucial, as the Tigers lean heavily on White's services in stopping the run, something they'll also have to do here. The key for LSU won't be the defense, however. It will be finding a way to keep pace on their own offensive end. Quarterback Joe Burrow has been a huge addition to this offense, playing smart and under control all year long. Burrow also adds an interesting element as a runner, which he used to overcome a superb Georgia defense a couple weeks ago. Can he do that against an Alabama defensive front stocked with future NFL Draft selections? He'll be aided by running backs Nick Brossette and Clyde Edwards-Helaire, as well as a solid crop of receivers. Burrow is going to need to do something LSU quarterbacks just haven't done in this matchup the last few seasons: make the big throw. I think he can do it, but this is Alabama, and nothing will come easy. I don't expect this game to be as low-scoring as years past (ahem, the 9-6 2011 regular season game), with both offenses entering this game with significant momentum. It should be pretty entertaining, and I think LSU has all the tools to give 'Bama a really tough game. Yet, I still am picking Alabama here, simply because nobody has proven they can consistently stop them at this juncture. LSU might just be able to, but my money remains on Tua and Saban.
The Pick: Alabama, 34 LSU, 26

(#6) Georgia Bulldogs @ (#9) Kentucky Wildcats
Alabama-LSU is going to be the most-watched SEC game of the weekend, but Georgia-Kentucky may have just as much importance. Both teams still remain in the Playoff hunt, and this game will effectively decide the representative from the East Division in the Championship Game. Kentucky has been one of the biggest stories of the season, jumping to a 7-1 record behind a stingy defense and Heisman candidate Benny Snell Jr. at running back. Snell (935 yards on the year) and quarterback Terry Wilson form a dangerous 1-2 punch running the ball. Wilson still hasn't proven he is an elite passer, but his speed really opens up this offense. A lot of credit should also be reserved for an offensive line that has played well much of the year and opened up some huge lanes for Wilson & Snell. They'll need to do that early and often against Georgia, who has their own stifling front seven. The most important thing for this Wildcats offense is not turning the ball over. UGA has a hungry defense that is great at forcing turnovers, and they capitalize on them as well as anybody in the country. The defense will be up to the task as well, with safety Darius West and linebackers Kash Daniel and Josh Allen making key plays. Those linebackers are going to have to be up to the challenge, because the Bulldogs are going to run the ball. The last few weeks, Kirby Smart has leaned on the run game early on nearly exclusively, and I imagine he'll start this game much the same. For Georgia, it would be great if Jake Fromm could figure out how to perform consistently. He played pretty well against Florida, but some fans still feel true freshman Justin Fields could make the offens run better. Fromm has loads of weapons, including Mecole Hardman, Jeremiah Holloman and tight end Isaac Nauta. If he can regain his late 2017 form, when he played absolutely terrific football, this Bulldogs team is so difficult to overcome. Going into Lexington is certainly not easy, but Smart and UGA have ample experience in big games and they won't be intimidated. I like Kentucky to keep things close, but I think the offense might be too one-dimensional to really bury UGA. I like the 'Dawgs in another close one.
The Pick: Georgia, 28 Kentucky, 24

(#14) Penn State Nittany Lions @ (#5) Michigan Wolverines
With Ohio State's recent upset loss, the Big Ten East is now Michigan's to win, as they've won seven straight since their season-opening loss to Notre Dame. The big reason for the Wolverines' recent success has been an offense playing with a lot more confidence and one of the most aggressive and sound defenses in the entire land. Quarterback Shea Patterson has played terrific, making plays with his arms and legs and not turning the ball over. He has been helped by a strong stable of running backs, led by Karan Higdon and Tru Wilson, along with a number of explosive options on the perimeter, namely Donovan Peoples-Jones. Peoples-Jones is one of the best deep threats in the nation, and is just as potent on special teams. Penn State will counter with a defense that loves to blitz, but the Nittany Lions have still struggled to defend the long pass. They'll still try and attack the UM offensive line, but Patterson has looked comfortable getting out of the pocket and making plays. On the other side of the ball, PSU really needs someone to step up beyond veteran signal-caller Trace McSorley. Running back Miles Sanders has done an admirable job replacing Saquon Barkley, but he will go up against a superb Michigan rush defense, which is led by linebacker Devin Bush. McSorley does have a huge arm, and the Nittany Lions are going to want to attack over the top. Can K.J. Hamler and Juwan Johnson make the plays necessary for this offense to put up enough points? PSU's offensive front is also going to be up for a challenge, dealing with a Wolverines pass rush that includes Chase Winovich and possibly Rashan Gary, who has been out for a number of weeks (listed as questionable for this game). McSorley has gone into tough environments before, but going into the Big House is certainly a different story. I like the Nittany Lions to make this a game, but I'll stick with the Wolverines at home. The way they're playing, they look ready to roll to a Big Ten East Title.
The Pick: Michigan, 33 Penn State, 27

Other Picks
(#13) West Virginia @ (#17) Texas: Texas, 30 West Virginia, 24
Missouri @ (#11) Florida: Florida, 35 Missouri, 23
(#4) Notre Dame @ Northwestern: Notre Dame, 26 Northwestern, 17
Louisville @ (#2) Clemson: Clemson, 48 Louisville, 20
(#19) Syracuse @ Wake Forest: Wake Forest, 27 Syracuse, 22

Current Picks Record: 56-16