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| Charlie Becker, Indiana |
📊 THE RECORD
🏆 PICKS 29-16 | ⚡ UPSETS 1–4 | 🐕 SUPERDOGS 2–2 | 🔒 LOCKS 5–1
(4) Ohio State Buckeyes @ (5) Indiana Hoosiers
📍 Bloomington, IN
🏈 Ohio State -3.5 | O/U 50.5
A rematch of last year's Big Ten Championship Game, and perhaps a preview of this year's will be on display in Bloomington on Saturday. Vegas seems to believe Ohio State has recovered from their defeat to Texas a month ago and is now resorted back to being the league frontrunner. The Hoosiers will relish the underdog role once again, out to prove the conference race still runs through Bloomington.
It's no secret what has fueled Ohio State's 5-1 start to the season: wide receiver Jeremiah Smith. The junior seems to be the Heisman favorite where we stand at the midway point of the regular season, with 48 receptions, 916 yards and 11 touchdowns to his credit on the year. If he continues on his current pace, he at least has a chance to get within range of the all-time single-season leader, Nevada's Trevor Insley in 1999. Indiana presents perhaps a greater challenge than he's seen in several weeks, but this is not a Hoosier secondary that has played up to the standard they did a season ago. They have lacked the D'Angelo Ponds character in the secondary, the fearless leader who goes up against the best receiver each and every week and relishes the opportunity to shut him down. If you're the Hoosier defense, the best strategy here is to somewhat contain Smith - you're not going to hold him to no damage, but you have to limit the game-breaking plays. If they can do that and force other Buckeyes to beat you, there's a chance to slow down this offense. Quarterback Julian Sayin has been good, but not particularly great. The rush offense has been a bit of a disappointment. The offensive line is banged up. And the receiver corps is really lacking much beyond Smith, with their next best target, Devin McCuin, listed as questionable. There are some real questions here Indiana could exploit, especially as their own defense seems to be progressing nicely after some early season woes. Yet, Ryan Day and the Buckeyes are inevitable in many ways, and there are factors that could be looking up. Getting Phillip Daniels healthy at right tackle is going to be huge against this Indiana pass rush. The ground game, while disappointing, has seemed to find its footing last week, albeit against Maryland. I do still wonder what we see out wide from the Buckeyes, because this has to be more than just Smith if this team genuinely wants to compete for a National Title. Could McCuin stay healthy and show up as the Robin to Smith's Batman? Is this finally the Brandon Inniss game? I do think this Ohio State team is going to try and be aggressive vertically, in a way they weren't in last year's Big Ten Championship. You have to believe they learned their lesson in that game, and also want to exploit this Hoosier back-end.
There's a much different feel to this Indiana offense, which is expected given just how much turnover occurred over the offseason. TCU transfer Josh Hoover may not be Fernando Mendoza, but he's actually been really solid across the board. Two things jump out at you with Hoover and this Hoosier offense: he's taking care of the ball in a way he didn't with the Horned Frogs, and this team relies heavily on explosive plays in a way they didn't last year. Indiana's offense last fall sure hit some big shots, but it was more of a methodical, prodding offense that made the big plays in high leverage moments. This team needs the big shots to be successful, and they've gotten them this season. Charlie Becker and Nick Marsh have been an elite duo on the perimeter, and Hoover has formed quick chemistry with both. It's a real concern for an Ohio State secondary that has also been finding themselves. There's no Caleb Downs back here this season, and it has certainly shown. That's not to say Ohio State can't stop anyone through the air, but this is a big opportunity for the likes of Jermaine Matthews and Devin Sanchez. Sanchez in particular is a big-time talent who was considered a surefire breakout candidate, but has had an up-and-down campaign thus far. Up front, the Buckeyes lack the star-power they've had in years past, but Matt Patricia has still found a way to manufacture pressure, and the rush defense matches up fairly well against the Hoosiers. In fact, that seems to be the description of this Ohio State defense - there's no Bosa brother, or Chase Young, or Downs but they find a way to get the job done. They may be okay giving up yardage, if they can create a turnover or two and make the plays in high leverage situations.
As silly as it sounds, it does feel like Indiana is being a bit overlooked on the year. This may not be the 2025 team, but it's still a great football team and Ohio State has real questions. Yet, it seems to be in the games and moments on the schedule where the Buckeyes have the most questions, we see their most dominant performances. And when your difference-maker is Jeremiah Smith, that's an awfully important deciding factor.
The Pick: Ohio State, 35 Indiana, 31





