College Football Picks 2024: Week Fourteen

Marcel Reed, Texas A&M

 

Current Picks Record: 68-39

Upsets: 5-9

Superdogs: 6-4

(#3) Texas Longhorns @ (#20) Texas A&M Aggies

Line: Texas -5.5

O/U: 48.5 

It's back! After a decade-and-a-half of being dead, the "Lone Star Showdown" between Texas and Texas A&M returns this weekend and has serious implications. The game may not only decide who ends up in the SEC Championship Game, it will have a significant impact on the College Football Playoff race as we hit the home stretch of the regular season. As if the return of the rivalry wasn't reason enough to tune in, such an important game should provide plenty of entertainment this Saturday.

Texas enters the game as winners of four straight contests, but there are questions for the Longhorns as they prepare for the weekend. Quarterback Quinn Ewers injured his ankle in the win over Kentucky last weekend, and has been dealing with a mild sprain throughout the week. The assumption is that he'll still start as normal, but it's unfortunate timing as the Longhorns prepare for their most important game of the regular season. It would not be surprising if we do see some of Arch Manning, even if it's in designed packages. Either way, Texas could certainly use help from a supporting cast that has had an up-and-down fall, despite the offensive success. Quintrevion Wisner and Jaydon Blue remain an effective duo out of the backfield, but they do face down an imposing A&M defensive front, one that should be extra motivated by the bright lights of the rivalry game. On the outside, Texas has struggled to find a consistent No. 1 all season, as they've sorely missed Xavier Worthy's playmaking. Matthew Golden has emerged as their most reliable weapon over the past month and Isaiah Bond is a home run hitter, but it will be interesting to see whether the duo show up for this one. Tight end Gunnar Helm is actually the team's leading receiver and should play a pivotal role in the underneath stuff, which could help expose A&M over-the-top. That has to be a concern for the Aggies, who have suffered breakdowns on the back end in the last few weeks we weren't used to seeing early on this fall. Now, Texas doesn't have a Cam Coleman like Auburn did last Saturday, but Mike Elko and this staff have to figure out what went wrong and adjust quickly. We've seen Ewers show out in these types of games and with his arm, one or two deep balls could change the entire complexion of this rivalry game. 

Although they ended up putting 41 points on the board in the loss to Auburn last weekend, A&M has to be feeling like they could have done even more after a dropped pass by Amari Daniels in the end zone prevented them from sending it into another overtime. That should give this offense even more reason to come out firing, and they've really turned the page down the stretch after taking time to gel early on this season. Marcel Reed has solidified his role as the starting quarterback over Conner Weigman, with Reed playing with a poise and maturity well beyond his years. There are still occasionally the questionable decisions, but he has put the Aggies consistently in a position to win, and shouldn't be intimidated at all by this Texas defense. That doesn't mean we should expect A&M to be chucking the ball all over the field - their bread and butter remains their efficient ground game. However, the Aggies do seem to be getting more comfortable going vertical with this offense as Reed has gained more experience, and the rhythm of this passing attack with Noah Thomas looked awfully impressive a week ago. The Longhorn defense poses an interesting challenge - despite the departures they took in their front seven over the offseason, they've been stout up front, setting the tone for the entire defense. A&M is a much more physical and athletic team than they've seen for some time, probably since the Georgia game, when the Bulldogs were pretty beat up on the offensive line. This is going to have the real feel of an SEC contest, with these two duking it out in the trenches, and the athletes on both sides of the ball are vastly different than what we became accustomed to all those years in the Big 12.

Not only is it a treat to see these two resume their long-standing rivalry, but the fact that there is so much on the line makes this the most consequential game of rivalry weekend. It's been over a month since the Longhorns played a team on the level of Texas A&M, so I think there will be have to be adjustments throughout the sixty minutes, but they seem to be playing better football at this point in the year and bring a clear identity to the table. Even with the questions around Ewers, Texas is the stronger football team - for now. 

The Pick: Texas, 31 Texas A&M, 21

College Football Picks 2024: Week Thirteen

Kurtis Rourke, Indiana

Current Picks Record: 63-35

Upsets: 5-8

Superdogs: 5-4

(#5) Indiana Hoosiers @ (#2) Ohio State Buckeyes

Line: Ohio State -11

O/U: 52.5

Few rivalries in college football are as lopsided as the series between the Ohio State Buckeyes and Indiana Hoosiers. Since the turn of the 1900s, the Hoosiers have won just 12 games against the Buckeyes, with nearly half of those coming pre-1913. They have beaten Ohio State just twice since 1951, with the last win coming all the way back in 1988. This Saturday, Indiana will look to not just flip the script in the long-standing rivalry and beat OSU but strengthen their College Football Playoff resume with the big win that has eluded them up to this point. It's not exaggeration to call it the most important game in Indiana football history.

The Hoosiers may not have the household names on offense others feature, but there's little denying this group has exceeded expectations the entirety of the fall. They average nearly 44 points per game on the offensive side, featuring a balanced, efficient group of playmakers. Quarterback Kurtis Rourke has been the catalyst despite dealing with injuries over the second half of the season, as he's thrown for 2,410 yards and 21 touchdowns, while completing 72% of his throws. Surrounding him, the duo of Justice Ellison and Ty Son Lawton give the ground game plenty of pop, while Elijah Sarratt and big-play threat Omar Cooper Jr. challenges defenses vertically. None of these four are going to finish the year as All-Americans, but the Indiana offense as a whole works cohesively as well as anyone in the country. Ellison and Lawton do just enough to keep defenses honest, and the depth and versatility of the receiver corps provide this offense with plenty of explosiveness. It should be enough to give Jim Knowles and this Ohio State defense a challenge. Knowles has done an excellent job with this group, but the Oregon loss did show the secondary has their fair share of weaknesses, and the rush defense could be in store for a tough game this late in the season. With that being said, Ohio State does seem to have a clear edge in the trenches, with their entire starting defensive line all certain to be future NFL pros. Indiana has been strong up front all season, an underrated element to their success, but this is a whole different challenge altogether. This isn't like the Oregon game, where the Ducks will be able to counter with one of the nation's top offensive lines, a group full of future pros themselves. Indiana is at a clear disadvantage here, and the Buckeyes can disrupt their entire offensive flow with what they do at the line of scrimmage.

There have been occasional growing pains for this Ohio State offense after breaking in a new play-caller (Chip Kelly) with a new quarterback and several fresh faces, but this unit seems to be playing their best ball at the right time. At this point, we know who Will Howard is going to be for the Buckeyes - he's unlikely to elevate this offense, but he doesn't need to with the talent they have at tailback and receiver. What the Buckeyes need is what Howard provides: a steady, consistent quarterback that does just enough to put his team in winning situations. Of course, it helps when you have Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson coming out of the backfield, and the likes of Jeremiah Smith, Emeka Egbuka, and more on the perimeter. The depth on this roster is what really sets apart Ohio State for me, and why they were my preseason National Title pick. This deep into a season, every team is beat up, but the fact the Buckeyes can call on former blue-chip recruits farther down their depth chart is a huge advantage. Don't be shocked if we see a figure like a Brandon Inniss have a moment in this one, a player who would start at just about anywhere else in the country who is reduced to a complementary role in this offense. With that being said, I'm keeping a close eye on the battle in the trenches on this side of the ball, too. The loss of center Seth McLaughlin, who tore his Achilles in practice earlier in the week, is a massive loss. It will force the Buckeyes to mix and match up front and leaves them exposed on the interior against an Indiana that features Mikhail Kamara, probably the best interior D-Linemen in the Big Ten. It's a position group to watch, as the Hoosiers are much tougher along their front seven than the average fan may assume.

Two things can be true at once - Indiana has benefitted from a miraculously easy schedule to this point and yet, they're also a tremendous football team that can certainly give the Buckeyes a run for their money in Columbus. I'm just not sure they have the athletes to compete with Ohio State full a full 60 minutes, no matter how well-coached they may be. I suspect a tight game into the fourth quarter, where the Buckeyes talent advantage becomes too much to overcome.

The Pick: Ohio State, 34 Indiana, 21

College Football Picks 2024: Week Twelve

Dylan Sampson, Tennessee

Current Picks Record: 56-32

Upsets: 4-8

Superdogs: 5-3

(#7) Tennessee Volunteers @ (#12) Georgia Bulldogs

Line: Georgia -9.5

O/U: 47.5

Georgia is facing down unfamiliar territory as they welcome Tennessee to town this weekend: the possibility of a third regular season loss and a likely elimination from the College Football Playoff. It has moved into must-win for the Bulldogs, but with the Volunteers on a Playoff quest of their own, it should be quite the battle in Athens on Saturday night.

Carson Beck entered the 2024 campaign as a Heisman frontrunner and likely first-round NFL Draft selection, but the veteran quarterback has had pronounced struggles in recent weeks. He's now thrown an interception in four straight games, including three each against Texas and Florida. They aren't a result of bad luck either, such as a tipped pass or receiver drops - they have been terrible decisions, trying to fit the ball in tight windows against SEC defenses. It's fair to wonder where his head is at as he preps for another important game, against another turnover-hungry defense. Georgia doesn't need him to be throwing for 400 yards and five touchdowns a game, what they need is for him to make smart decisions and take care of the ball, which just hasn't happened in the big moments this fall. To be fair to Beck, the supporting cast hasn't quite been at Georgia standards. They've lacked a true go-to weapon on the outside, although Dominic Lovett and Arian Smith have proven to be their most reliable, and the backfield has been hit by injuries, with Trevor Etienne ruled out for this contest. The offensive line has also taken their lumps on the year, which has forced Beck into uncomfortable situations he's clearly not used to. But, if the Bulldogs are to get back on track, they need their quarterback to play with more confidence. I wonder if they'll look to get him a rhythm early with shorter, easier throws and look to incorporate screens into the offense. He's still going to have to make some throws down-the-field, but that should help him get into a groove and nullify an aggressive Tennessee pass rush. Freshman Nate Frazier and do-it-all Dillon Bell should also be counted on heavily with Etienne's absence. They're going to need to carve up some yardage against a strong Volunteer front, and use up some clock to get their defense a rest going the other way. It's no easy task against one of the best defensive fronts in the SEC, but the Bulldogs have won out in these types of games before, and will try for a repeat of that same formula in this one.

Tennessee has had their share of offensive struggles in much the same vein as Georgia, quite the surprise given Josh Heupel's reputation for having high-octane offenses. Sophomore quarterback Nico Iamaleava has had flashes, but he hasn't taken off the way most expected when he was handed control of the offense heading into the season. And now, his status is uncertain for this one after he left last week's Mississippi State game with a head injury. Earlier in the week it sounded likely he was going to play, but the mood has seemingly shifted around him over the last few days. If he's not able to go, Tennessee will turn to senior Gaston Moore, who came on in relief last weekend and threw a total of eight passes. I suspect Nico will try his best to go, but if not, the Volunteer offense is likely to become all about the ground-and-pound, with tailback Dylan Sampson set to lead the charge. Sampson has been a pleasant surprise, one of the big reasons the Volunteers are seventh in the country, and he's evolved into a true workhorse for this team. That could create quite the matchup, as Georgia's defensive front, while inconsistent, remains among the best in the nation. The Bulldogs don't always show up but when they do, they look much in the same vein as the dominant groups that led this defense in the late 2010s and early 2020s. Jalon Walker, Mykel Williams, and Chaz Chambliss should all be ready to go - look no further than their play in the Texas game as a reminder that this defensive front can still take over games when they're playing well.

While is not a true Playoff elimination game considering Tennessee only has one loss, it's hard to imagine Georgia finding a way to sneak in with three losses. But, I don't suspect that's something Kirby Smart and the 'Dawgs are going to have to think about just yet. Despite the struggles and even after a flat performance last weekend, I think they're the right choice here. With Nico's status in question and with this being in Athens, this one trends to Georgia.

The Pick: Georgia, 24 Tennessee, 20

College Football Picks 2024: Week Eleven

Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss

Current Picks Record: 51-28

Upsets: 4-7

Superdogs: 4-3

(#11) Alabama Crimson Tide @ (#15) LSU Tigers

Line: Alabama -3

O/U: 58.5

The Alabama-LSU rivalry game always has importance, but the stakes for this year are different. Both teams are firmly in the thick of the College Football Playoff but a loss from either, which would be their third, would likely knock them out of things as we stand in early November. For two programs with sky high expectations, that's simply not acceptable - meaning both have plenty to play for on Saturday night in primetime.

Jalen Milroe was considered a Heisman frontrunner over the course of the first month-and-a-half of the 2024 campaign, but he has slowed significantly during a difficult stretch for the Crimson Tide. Against Tennessee and Missouri, Milroe still put up solid numbers, but Tennessee's pressure forced him into two turnovers and he didn't throw for a touchdown against Missouri. After the bye week, this LSU game feels like a prime opportunity for him to get back on track. The Tigers have improved tremendously defensively under Blake Baker, but the secondary still remains frightfully inconsistent, and they've struggled against dual-threat quarterbacks - evidenced by Marcel Reed's big game a few weeks ago. It would help Milroe if the Tide could find some balance on the ground, as their rushing attack has been suspect over the past month behind a struggling offensive line. Ryan Williams has also slowed down significantly on the perimeter, which has forced the Tide to open their playbook and look to manufacture easier yards through the air. All of that has been frustrating, but the bye did come at the right time and if their is a head coach who should be able to figure this out, it's Kalen DeBoer. Despite the ups-and-downs for the Tide this fall, he remains one of the best offensive minds in the sport, and had plenty of time to prepare for LSU. I get the feeling Alabama is going to come out aggressive in much the same way they did against Georgia, even with this game being in Baton Rouge.

The LSU offense has relied heavily on the pass all season long but as they reach the home stretch of the regular season, they've pretty much abandoned any effort to run the ball. It's all on the shoulders of Garrett Nussmeier now and although he's been an effective quarterback, this is his first season as starter. There have been the occasional mistakes, which should be expected of an SEC quarterback, and the A&M game provided Alabama the game tape they need to know how to slow him down. After struggling in the first half, A&M altered their coverage and mixed and matched on the back-end, forcing Nussmeier to face down defenses he hasn't seen before. The result was turnovers, with the three interceptions dooming the Tigers as A&M ran away with it in the second half. Even against an inexperienced Tide secondary, one that has struggled significantly at times, I still feel like LSU has to find some semblance of offensive balance, even if it's just enough to keep the defense honest. If not, Nussmeier is going to have some very difficult windows to throw into, with Kane Wommack having plenty of time to prepare himself. The battle in the trenches is another key X-factor - this isn't the same Alabama defensive front we came to know in the peak Saban years, but they can still get after quarterbacks. If Nussmeier is under pressure, this one becomes difficult to imagine coming out as a Tiger victory.

Both Alabama and LSU remain difficult times to get a read on as we prepare for the final month of the regular season. When they're playing well, they still look like potential National Title contenders, with high-flying, fun talent on both sides of the ball. When not, they're one-dimensional, limited teams that just don't look like what we've come to expect from these programs. We can't be sure which editions will come out on the field on Saturday, but I lean Alabama only because we know they can win in different ways and they've looked elite when they're on their "A" game. As difficult as it will be going on the road and beating LSU, the Tide feel like the slightly safer pick.

The Pick: Alabama, 38 LSU, 35

College Football Picks 2024: Week Ten

Will Howard, Ohio State

Current Picks Record: 45-26

Upsets: 3-6

Superdogs: 4-3

(#4) Ohio State Buckeyes @ (#3) Penn State Nittany Lions

Line: Ohio State -3

O/U: 46.5

Penn State and Ohio State reignite their rivalry this weekend, with the Nittany Lions entering in unfamiliar territory as the higher ranked team - although they still are a home underdog. It's the perfect opportunity for Penn State to prove themselves on a national scale and show that they can win the big one. 

Ohio State's loss to Oregon earlier in the year leaves them with little room for error as they push towards the end of the regular season. They're still in a good spot to make the College Football Playoff, but a loss to Penn State could mean a nerve-racking finish, with Indiana, Michigan, and a potential Big Ten Championship Game trip still on the horizon. The offense was far from the problem in the Oregon loss after they went for 467 yards, but two turnovers and the inability to put together a winning drive in the final seconds puts pressure on this side of the ball as they prep for the Nittany Lions. Quarterback Will Howard has been solid, but the Buckeyes will need him to elevate his game down the stretch if they are to still reach their lofty expectations. Fortunately for Howard, he is blessed with a receiver corps that includes Emeka Egbuka and Jeremiah Smith, plus the 1-2 punch of Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson out of the backfield. The skill position talent has never been the issue here at Ohio State, and they should still be able to move the ball aplenty, even against this gifted Penn State defense. It's the offensive line that has to be better, fresh off a shockingly bad performance against Nebraska. The Buckeyes got pushed around in a way we simply aren't used to seeing from this program. That's a real concern against a Nittany Lion defense that loves to blitz, and features several future NFLers across their front seven. Did this Ohio State offensive line figure it out in the span of a week? If not, Chip Kelly and the rest of the Buckeye offense are going to have to be creative in how they approach such a notable weakness up front.

The Nittany Lions fought off Wisconsin to maintain their undefeated record, but took a loss that didn't show up in the "L" column. Starting quarterback Drew Allar was knocked out of the game, and his status for Saturday remains unclear. It's expected we do see him but he's clearly not close to 100 percent, and it could be on a limited basis. That means backup Beau Pribula will have to be ready to go after coming on in relief last weekend. Interestingly enough, there's some thought that Pribula may actually unlock parts of this offense we didn't see with Allar. He doesn't have Allar's arm, but the sophomore is a gifted runner who can open things up with his legs. The Nittany Lions seemed to find their offensive rhythm after he come on last Saturday, and they'll hope to maintain that momentum into this one. With that being said, this is quite the stage to be making a first career start, even at home. He'll also have to deal with an Ohio State defense that seems to be playing extra motivated since the Oregon loss, with J.T. Tuimolalu and company causing plenty of chaos up front. With Allar's status uncertain, expect the Nittany Lions to look to their ground game early and often, even after it was held in check by Wisconsin last week. 

Allar's injury, even if he does come back and play in this game, throws this one into uncertainty. Penn State has looked the part all season, but the Buckeyes have long given them troubles, a team that they've struggled to close out. I think the Nittany Lions are better than the same teams that have lost in the past, but the Buckeyes are extra hungry, too. I just don't imagine this Ohio State team losing another close game after Oregon, so I think they finish the job this time.

The Pick: Ohio State, 34 Penn State, 31

College Football Picks 2024: Week Nine

Garrett Nussmeier, LSU

Current Picks Record: 39-23

Upsets: 3-5

Superdogs: 3-3

Locks: 2-5

(#8) LSU Tigers @ (#14) Texas A&M Aggies

Line: Texas A&M -2.5

O/U: 53.5

Although their resume has taken a slight hit with USC's continued struggles, LSU has played themselves into good position to make a College Football Playoff run as they prepare for the back-half of their schedule. Unfortunately, that back-half schedule includes three ranked foes, plus a trip to The Swamp to match up with Florida. First up is Texas A&M, who has also recovered in impressive fashion from a season-opening loss, quietly ripping off six straight victories under first-year head man Mike Elko.

For so long, LSU's offense was defined by their ground-and-pound, grinding style. But, multiple Heisman-winning quarterbacks later, this has become an offense all about the pass, with Garrett Nussmeier the latest player putting up big number under center. Nussmeier has come on and replaced Jayden Daniels without much of a drop-off, throwing for 2,222 yards and 18 touchdowns over their first seven contests. Turnovers have been a problem in recent weeks, with multi-pick games against South Alabama and Ole Miss, but the junior has still shown an excellent command of the offense, and his huge arm has made this Tiger aerial attack quite potent down the field. Of course, it helps that he is surrounded by weapons in this LSU offense, with the likes of Kyren Lacy, Aaron Anderson, and tight end Mason Taylor keeping defenses constantly on their toes. It's a group that not only continues to get better each and every week, but has the versatility to attack defenses in a variety of ways. With all that being said, I remain curious if we see LSU continue to attempt to bring some balance to this offense with their ground game. Caden Durham has been good when given the opportunity, rushing for over six yards per carry, but the Tigers often haven't had to lean on his services. That is, until last week, when he ran for over 100 yards against Arkansas on 21 carries. I suspect that had more to do with matchups than a shift in philosophy, and the Tigers don't have the clear edge in the trenches against Texas A&M they had against the Razorbacks. No, this has the looks of another game where LSU is going to look to air it out. It will be interesting to see how it goes - the Aggie pass defense has been strong all season, but they have legitimate NFL athletes up front to counter LSU's O-Line. We are going to learn a lot about both units in this one, and how they fare should tell us plenty about how things will go down the stretch.

Conner Weigman opened up his 2024 season with a rough showing in the loss to Notre Dame, going just 12-30 and throwing two interceptions in the eventual defeat. But after missing time due to injury, he's looked re-energized in his last two games against Missouri and Mississippi State, and seems to be entering this one with momentum. His two turnovers against Mississippi State may be of slight concern, but he faces an LSU defense that still struggles to defend the pass, despite their massive improvements across the board under new coordinator Blake Baker. That makes me think Colin Klein and the Aggies may be more aggressive throwing the ball than we have seen for much of the year, when they've leaned on Le'Veon Moss to fuel a methodical offense. Texas A&M doesn't have the athletes on the perimeter LSU features, but look for Noah Thomas and Cyrus Allen to still feature heavily, two players who are true deep threats. Moss will still get his fair share of touches, as will change-of-pace Amari Daniels, but this is a difficult LSU defense to run against. They're not only nasty on the defensive line, this is a superb linebacker corps that has become led by rising sophomore Whit Weeks, who already has 68 weeks tackle on the year. Between Weeks and veteran Greg Penn III, the Tigers have been much more creative with what they've been able to do on the year, and have the range in their linebacker corps necessary to play from sideline to sideline. Klein has had time to prepare and has done a fine job in his first year in College Station, but this is the most difficult test since Notre Dame, who flummoxed this A&M offense the entire way.

This time of year, it feels like so many of these big games are coin flips, and this one has the same energy. Both offenses are playing well, but they run into a pair of defenses playing arguably even better, especially considering LSU's defensive turnaround. Even with the passing attacks both can feature, I get the feeling this could be like the A&M-Notre Dame game in that it becomes a low-scoring slugfest. In many ways that favors the Aggies at home, but I remain confident in what LSU can do, and I like their chances to continue the positive momentum.

The Pick: LSU, 31 Texas A&M, 28

College Football Midseason Awards 2024

Ashton Jeanty, Boise State

It feels like just yesterday we were watching Florida State and Georgia Tech kick off the 2024 college football season in Dublin, Ireland, but the startling reality is that we are already at the midpoint of the fall. There's still plenty of exciting moments on the horizon but now that we've reached the halfway point, it's time for my annual "Midseason Awards", predicting the official and unofficial winners of some of the sport's most prestigious honors.

Projected National Champion: Texas Longhorns

Seven weeks into the season, many National Title frontrunners have already taken a loss - a list that now includes Georgia, Alabama, Ohio State, and the reigning National Champion, Michigan. Of course, the expanded College Football Playoff means these teams still have hope, but there will be little margin for error down the stretch. That's not the case for the Texas Longhorns, who remain undefeated and have built a solid resume through the first half of the season. With Quinn Ewers healthy and the defense playing at an elite level we haven't seen from Texas in some time, they seem like the clear favorite as of right now. However, the schedule does get trickier down the stretch, a true welcome to the SEC for the Longhorns. Georgia is this upcoming weekend, and Texas A&M still awaits, plus the possibility of the SEC Championship Game. Managing to stay undefeated may not be a reasonable goal, but the Longhorns should still remain one of the frontrunners to take it all home - for the first time since Vince Young and the 'Horns beat USC in 2005.

Others in Consideration: Oregon Ducks, Georgia Bulldogs, Alabama Crimson Tide, Penn State Nittany Lions, Ohio State Buckeyes, Miami Hurricanes

College Football Picks 2024: Week Seven

Emeka Egbuka, Ohio State

Current Picks Record: 32-21

Upsets: 3-4

Superdogs: 2-3

(#2) Ohio State Buckeyes @ (#3) Oregon Ducks

Line: Ohio State -3

O/U: 53.5

For the first time, Oregon and Ohio State are meeting as conference opponents, with both looking for a statement win to bolster their resume. Both sit at a perfect 5-0, but neither have been tested in the way they will be on Saturday. Whoever responds in the raucous environment of Autzen Stadium will decide who becomes the league favorite and heads into next weekend with a six in the win column.

The prevailing logic heading into the fall around Oregon was that their offense would not skip a beat, despite the departures of Bo Nix and Bucky Irving. Dillon Gabriel transferred in as a veteran quarterback with one of the most accomplished track records in recent college football memory, and had an abundance of weapons surrounding him and offensive coordinator Will Stein. Statistically, the Ducks have been impressive, putting up 35 points per contest, but it hasn't been the complete dominance most expected coming into the year. Gabriel has had some shaky moments, highlighted by two questionable red zone interceptions in their win over Michigan State last Friday, but their competition hasn't been able to take advantage. That is not going to be the case on Saturday - they face a Buckeye secondary that features superstar Caleb Downs and steady corner Denzel Burke, with ultra-versatile Sonny Styles also moving all over the field. Jim Knowles is a tactician at confusing and disrupting opposing offenses, and despite Gabriel's experience, he's been prone to shockingly bad throws. Fortunately, he'll have the support of a fabulous ground game, led by Jordan James, plus Tez Johnson and Traeshon Holden out wide. Add in one of the nation's top line, one that has absolutely mauled their competition so far this fall, Oregon has all the ingredients to be a high-flying, unstoppable offense. It just feels like they're still fitting the pieces together in the right way, and the Buckeyes are quite the test. Beyond the secondary, a relentless front seven that includes future NFL Draftees like Jack Sawyer, J.T. Tuimoloau, and Ty Hamilton is a stiff challenge. Oregon is not going to be able to push around these guys like they have against the Michigan States and Oregon States of the world. How will they handle that adversity will tell us a lot about their chances not only in this one, but the rest of the season.

Ohio State has faced an even weaker slate up to this point in the year, although beating down an Iowa team that has given them troubles in the past was quite the exclamation point. The Buckeyes have looked a bit crisper than the Ducks, on both sides of the ball, but also seem to still be figuring things out as they reach the midway point of the regular season. Will Howard is certainly not the flashiest quarterback to ever start under center for the Buckeyes, but the rock-solid veteran has had no issues distributing the ball to the weapons Ohio State features on the perimeter, most notably Emeka Egbuka and freshman phenom Jeremiah Smith. The Buckeyes can pound with the best of them in much the way Oregon can, with Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson the most feared 1-2 punch in the country. Chip Kelly has taken a fairly conservative approach to his playcalling so far, leaning on their advantage in the trenches and taking the occasional deep shot when necessary. I wouldn't be surprised if he has a few tricks up his sleeve going up against the school he became a household name at - the Buckeyes are undoubtedly saving different plays and formations. The Duck defense does offer quite the challenge, but I'm not sure it's quite at the Ohio State level defensively. They are stout up front, but I do believe this is a team you can stretch vertically and hit the big play or two - we'll see how aggressive the Buckeyes choose to be.

This game is going to tell us a lot about both teams, as we simply don't know as much as we should about two teams that are both considered National Championship contenders. Oregon clearly retains an important advantage with Ohio State having to travel to Eugene, but their first five weeks have felt just a bit... underwhelming. Maybe it's a situation where they need the elevated competition to truly show what they're capable of, but the Buckeyes inspire much more confidence at this juncture. Even on the road, I like them to come out victorious.

The Pick: Ohio State, 31 Oregon, 27

College Football Picks 2024: Week Six

Marquis Johnson, Missouri

Current Picks Record: 28-16

Upsets: 2-3

Superdogs: 2-3

Locks: 1-4

(#9) Missouri Tigers @ (#25) Texas A&M Aggies

Line: Texas A&M -2.5

O/U: 48.5

Old Big 12 foes clash in the only ranked game of the weekend, with the ninth-ranked Missouri Tigers traveling to College Station to face Texas A&M. It hasn't always been a pretty start for Mike Elko and the Aggies, but they've done what they need to do over the course of a 4-1 start, while Missouri is looking to add a ranked win to their College Football Playoff resume.

The Texas A&M offense has looked a bit different than expected under first-year offensive coordinator Colin Klein, primarily because the person running it has been a new face in Marcel Reed. With Conner Weigman sidelined for a big chunk of the first month of the year, Reed has stepped in as starter and gone 3-0 as their quarterback. Weigman is listed as a game-time decision come Saturday, but something tells me it will be Reed out there in this one. With all due respect to Weigman, the offense has looked significantly better under Reed, and his rushing ability gives this Missouri defense something to worry about in a way they don't have to with Weigman. No matter who is starting quarterback, running the football will still be the name of the game for one of the top rushing attacks in the country. Le'Veon Moss has been a workhorse, and the change-of-pace ability of Amari Daniels, particularly combined with Reed's rushing, helps the Aggies ground-and-pound. A lot of credit should also go to an offensive line that has rolled with the punches so far in 2024, and looks like a much improved unit as they enter the weekend. It should set up an interesting battle against a Missouri defense that has looked surprisingly strong despite several major NFL defections in the offseason, not to mention the loss of coordinator Blake Baker to LSU. They've been very good against the pass, but will need to up their physicality and play with an edge in front of the raucous crowd of Kyle Field. 

Although the Tigers have to feel good about entering October 4-0, their last two games have left something to be desired. They won both, but got all they could handle from both Boston College and Vanderbilt, so there's clearly some work to be done. The offense has had no issues moving the ball, but has struggled to get it in for six when they've gotten in the red zone, leading to ample work for kicker Blake Craig, who already has 16 attempts on the young season. Quarterback Brady Cook has been good, but he needs more from a receiver corps that looked to be one of the best in all of the land entering the fall. That's not to say Missouri's receivers have been bad, but Luther Burden III and Mookie Cooper are much better than their stats may indicate. Marquis Johnson will also look to get more involved - the big-play threat in this offense last season, he's been held in check through the first five weeks. With Nate Noel having a strong start to the year out of the backfield, Missouri has been able to lean on the ground game, but the Aggies do present a challenge in that respect. This has long been a strong defensive front and they'll look to bring the heat consistently against Cook and company. How the Tigers handle the pressure and whether they are finally able to find the rhythm consistently through the air may make all the difference.

The Aggies enter this one more battle-tested and do get the Tigers at home, but I still like Missouri's chances to come in and pull off what is technically an upset. They have far too many offensive weapons to continue settling for field goals, and the A&M defense has lived and died off turnovers so far this fall. If Cook and company take care of the ball, I think they find a way to come out on top.

The Pick: Missouri, 34 Texas A&M, 24

College Football Picks 2024: Week Five

Jalen Milroe, Alabama

Current Picks Record: 24-11

Upsets: 2-2

Superdogs: 2-2

Locks: 1-3

(#2) Georgia Bulldogs @ (#4) Alabama Crimson Tide

Line: Georgia -2

O/U: 48.5

Nick Saban may be gone, but the animosity between Alabama and Georgia is high as ever as we head into their pivotal regular season matchup on Saturday. Alabama's victory in last year's SEC Championship Game effectively knocked the Bulldogs out of the College Football Playoff and killed their dreams of a three-peat. Now, the Crimson Tide welcome Georgia to Bryant-Denny Stadium with both teams trying to add the crown jewel to their Playoff resumes.

The last time we saw Georgia on the field wasn't the type of dominant performance we've come to expect of Kirby Smart's Bulldogs, but they had the bye week at the right time last weekend. After managing just 262 yards and 13 points in an ugly win over Kentucky, the Bulldogs are hoping their offense is fresh and ready to attack this Alabama defense. Getting more from their ground game will be paramount - Georgia managed just 3.4 yards per carry against a stifling Wildcat defensive front, and it threw the entire offense out of their rhythm. It doesn't help that Georgia is beat up along the offensive line, but this is still a much better rushing attack than what we saw. I suspect they'll look to rotate more beyond just Trevor Etienne, so expect to see more of Branson Robinson and Nate Frazier, and also look to get more of their playmakers in space in creative ways. Dillon Bell in particular has been held in check all season long, but he feels like the type of versatile game-changer that is going to have to show up for the Bulldog offense to get rolling. They should have their opportunities against the Crimson Tide, as this is simply not the same group we saw dominate for so long in the peak Saban years when Kirby Smart just happened to be their defensive coordinator. That's not to say Alabama will be a pushover, as they'll still attack up front, but there's not the same depth here and the secondary has taken their lumps so far on the young season. The gameplan has to be for Georgia to pound the rock early and tire out this defense, with the hopes that the play-action passing game will open up in the second half. It may have a feel more similar to what we came to expect of this rivalry back in the mid-2010s before these offenses really took off in recent years.

Alabama also has had their moments of offensive struggles, most notably in the South Florida game, but still enters this one averaging 49 points per game. It's not a surprise that Kalen DeBoer has come in and the transition has been so smooth - we saw the same thing at Washington. But, it has been surprising how much balance we've seen from them and how productive they've been on the ground. We got so used to seeing DeBoer and Washington chuck the ball all over the field, it's easy to forget that the rushing attack plays a key role in setting up so many of their opportunities. Between Jam Miller, Justice Haynes, and Jalen Milroe, Alabama is going to test this Georgia front seven in a way they simply haven't been tested so far in 2024. The Tide should also benefit from their offensive line continuing to get healthier and healthier, with Kadyn Proctor back to near 100 percent after returning for the Wisconsin game. It's a matchup that should be advantageous for the Crimson Tide, going up against a Bulldog rush defense that hasn't proven themselves just yet, as opposed to their superb secondary. But still, Jalen Milroe is going to make some key throws in order to come out on top and avoiding costly turnovers could make all the difference. It would certainly help if the Tide got more consistency from their receiver corps beyond freshman phenom Ryan Williams, namely from Kobe Prentice and Germie Bernard. 

This has all the makings of another classic between two of college football's premier programs. Neither program is at their peak or playing their best football, but both rosters are loaded with talent, and DeBoer's presence adds an interesting dynamic to this renewed rivalry. You better believe he'll have some tricks up his sleeve for the Bulldogs and playing in Tuscaloosa is an obvious factor working in their favor. But even so, something about Georgia just feels like they are going to come out in this one swinging. They'll be fresh and Smart always has his teams ready for these types of games, with the added layer of motivation after the loss last season. They feel like the more complete team at this stage of the season, and I think they go into Bryant-Denny and squeak out the win.

The Pick: Georgia, 31 Alabama, 28

(#19) Illinois Fighting Illini @ (#9) Penn State Nittany Lions

Line: Penn State -18.5

O/U: 47.5

Oregon and Ohio State may still sit above them in the polls, but Penn State's impressive start to the 2024 campaign has them thinking Big Ten Title as they kick off their conference season this weekend. But arriving in town is none other than Illinois, a pleasant surprise through the first four weeks fresh off a big win. The Fighting Illini would love nothing more than to come into Happy Valley and spoil Penn State's undefeated record.

Just a month into the season, Penn State offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki looks like the Broyles Award frontrunner, with the Nittany Lion offensive renaissance on full display through their first three games. Penn State is one of just two teams, the other being Tennessee, currently averaging 250+ passing yards and 250+ rushing yards at this point of the season, with the trio of Drew Allar, Nicholas Singleton, and Kaytron Allen leading the way. Allar has played with a confidence we didn't see last season, and has been willing to take his shots down the field, giving PSU a verticality to this offense we haven't seen from them since Trace McSorley was running the show. In turn, that's opened things up for Allen and Singleton, and we've gotten to see the home run hitting ability of Singleton on full display, averaging over eight yards per carry. The Nittany Lion receiver corps deserves plenty of credit, too, as this was a group that struggled mightily throughout 2023. So far this fall, Harrison Wallace III and Omari Evans have been terrific, with tight end Tyler Warren the type of matchup nightmare every offense needs in this day and age. That's all to say that this is going to be quite the stiff challenge for an Illinois defense that has put together a strong start to the season themselves. In both of their big wins, over Kansas and Nebraska, they've done a superb job limiting the big play and keeping everything in front, and this is a sure tackling team that fills gaps as well as any team at this level. They don't have the athletes Penn State can boast, but they'll make the Nittany Lions work for their yardage in a way others simply haven't. With that being said, a big run from Singleton or big throw from Allar could open the floodgates.

The Illini defense still remains the strength of the team, but their steady improvement offensively is another reason for their 4-0 start. This is never going to be a unit that's going to go out and drop 50 points a night, but it's been highly efficient and consistent through the first few weeks of the season. Quarterback Luke Altmyer is finally starting to look like the blue-chip prospect we saw coming out of high school, with ten touchdowns to zero interceptions through the first four weeks. He's benefitted from the stellar play of Pat Bryant and Zakhari Franklin, a pair of physical receivers that are brutal covers on the perimeter. With Kaden Feagin and the rest of a deep running back room pounding behind the offensive line underneath, Illinois can certainly move the ball, if not in quite the explosive manner of Penn State. The Illini should pose an interesting challenge for a Penn State defense that hasn't missed a beat in the transition to Tom Allen from Manny Diaz. The elite Nittany Lion linebacker group should be able to stymie this Illinois passing attack, but Franklin and Bryant will really test their corners, particularly if they get them in man-to-man. Even against Kansas, a team that boasts a strong cornerback duo, these two were able to make key plays, and Allen will have to find a way to slow them down enough to keep PSU on top.

It feels unwise to pick against Penn State after their hot start, especially in Happy Valley at night. But, the Illini should be able to give them a game, at least until deeper into the second half. Unfortunately for them, Allar and the Nittany Lions should prove to be simply too much.

The Pick: Penn State, 35 Illinois, 23

(#15) Louisville Cardinals @ (#16) Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Line: -6.5

O/U: 46.5

With Florida State and both UNC and NC State struggling, Louisville has to feel as though there's a path to the ACC Championship Game alongside Clemson and Miami. But the Cardinals still need to take care of business in the non-conference, and traveling to South Bend to square off with the Irish will be a difficult one. Notre Dame has taken their early season lumps, but remains the favorite as we inch towards Saturday.

Louisville hasn't exactly faced elite competition en route to their 3-0 start, but the Cardinals still deserve plenty of credit for just how effective their offense has looked. They're averaging 45.3 points per game, and veteran QB Tyler Shough has looked terrific, leading a passing attack that's averaging over 300 yards per contest themselves. It helps that wide receiver Ja'Corey Brooks is finally turning into the receiver we thought he could be when he was at Alabama, and Jeff Brohm's offensive genius has been on full display. This passing attack should be quite the battle against a Notre Dame secondary that is considered one of the nation's best. Benjamin Morrison and Xavier Watts are two of the most consistent defenders anywhere in the country and should relish the opportunity to show what they can do against the high-flying Cardinals. Although, the Irish secondary did take a bit of a hit this week when Jaden Mickey hit the portal, but this remains a well-coached, disciplined unit that will make Louisville work for every yard they get. I will be curious to see how Brohm sets up the passing game with the run - the Cardinals have leaned on a committee approach so far on the young season. The quartet of Isaac Brown, Duke Watson, Keyjuan Brown, and Maurice Turner should all see a healthy amount of action, and the depth should keep them fresh deeper into this game. That will be key against this Notre Dame defense, a relentless group that just never seems to tire under coordinator Al Golden.

New offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock has clearly needed some time to acclimate himself with new quarterback Riley Leonard and the rest of the Irish offense. There have been some bright spots, like dropping 66 points in a demolition of Purdue, but Notre Dame seems to still be figuring things out offensively as their schedule gets tougher. Fortunately, the ground game has remained a consistent fuel for this group, with the emergence of Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price, plus the scrambling ability of Leonard. This is a rush offense averaging 6.7 yards per carry, with a nice blend of speed and power, posing quite the threat to this Louisville defense. The Cardinals have been strong statistically against the run so far in 2024, but this is a whole different challenge for them. The Irish are a physical team in a way that Louisville hasn't seen so far, and hasn't traditionally played well against. The best hope is to stack the box and make Leonard make plays with his arm, which certainly doesn't appear to be a bad strategy. The former Duke transfer simply has not looked comfortable throwing the ball, and the Irish have struggled to find the right complement to Beaux Collins on the outside. They'll look to set up this passing game through play-action and get Leonard comfortable with easy throws and screens but at the end of the day, it's up the veteran quarterback to get things going. His play feels like the X-factor in what will be a real test for them at home.

This is an extremely tough game to pick because we simply don't know much about Louisville at this point in the season. They've looked good, but their most impressive win came against a Georgia Tech team in a game that was tight into the fourth quarter. Despite the ups-and-downs they've gone through over the season's first month, Notre Dame is still the smarter choice at home. They should do enough to slow down this Cardinal passing game, and their ground attack the other way will make all the difference.

The Pick: Notre Dame, 27 Louisville, 21

Other Picks

(#20) Oklahoma State Cowboys @ (#23) Kansas State Wildcats -- This will be a get right opportunity for both of these teams after frustrating losses last weekend. K-State in particular looked shockingly bad in a blowout loss to BYU, but Chris Kleiman teams always respond - they should be hungry to prove themselves at home.

The Pick: Kansas State, 34 Oklahoma State, 24

Washington State Cougars @ (#25) Boise State Broncos -- Boise is on the inside track towards the Group of Five Playoff spot, but can't afford a slip-up here. Washington State is a formidable foe, but I figure their luck may run out after two close victories.

The Pick: Boise State, 35 Washington State, 30

Washington Huskies @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights -- A classic Big Ten conference game, huh? I said before the season how high I am on Rutgers, and getting Washington going across the country feels like it should give them a clear advantage. But, I actually like the Huskies to spoil the undefeated season for Rutgers, thanks to their offensive balance and a defense that's playing great.

The Pick: Washington, 27 Rutgers, 18

Upset: Arkansas Razorbacks @ (#24) Texas A&M Aggies -- I'm not under the impression Arkansas is going to go on some type of magical run that saves Sam Pittman's job, but the Razorbacks are much more explosive this year under Bobby Petrino than in the past. They have enough to go into College Station and win a hard-fought rivalry game.

The Pick: Arkansas, 34 Texas A&M, 28

Superdog (covers > 21 point spread): South Alabama Jaguars (+22) @ LSU Tigers -- South Alabama has plenty of deficiencies, but this is a team that can put up points - in a hurry. Against a LSU defense that is still figuring things out, they may do just enough to cover.

The Pick: LSU, 49 South Alabama, 31

Lock of the Week: Wake Forest Demon Deacons (-3) vs. Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns -- Finally I'm out of the winless column on my locks, now it's time for a run. Wake Forest likely isn't going to be bowling this year, but Louisiana has plenty of issues themselves and has to travel to Winston-Salem.

The Pick: Wake Forest, 28 Louisiana, 14