Big Ten Basketball Power Rankings 2024-25: Edition 1

Braden Smith, Purdue

* Records Updated through morning of 1/14/25

1. Michigan State Spartans

14-2 overall, 5-0 Big Ten

We've become accustomed to Tom Izzo's Michigan State teams taking their lumps in the non-conference and early Big Ten play, but this 2024-25 team appears to be different. They've jumped out to a 5-0 start to conference action, punctuated by an impressive victory over Northwestern to cap off the weekend. The Spartans have been fortunate to miss most of the other league heavyweights en route to their strong start, but the way they've came out and taken care of business seems to indicate this team is a real threat to take home the regular season Big Ten crown this winter. The schedule remains favorable through the month of January, but we'll learn a lot about this team with how they handle the February slate. In a stretch from February 4 - 21, five of Michigan State's six games will be against teams currently ranked in the Top 25, including trips Oregon, Illinois, and Michigan.

2. Purdue Boilermakers

13-4 overall, 5-1 Big Ten

A rough month of December, at least by typical Purdue standards, knocked the Boilermakers down the rankings, and they've responded with five straight victories. Much like Michigan State, the Boilermakers have certainly taken advantage of a relatively soft start to their conference schedule, but winning five of six league games is a challenge in any conference, let alone the Big Ten. Junior guard Braden Smith has been the centerpiece of an offense that seems to have figured out their early-season woes. He's always been an elite floor general, but Smith's growth as a scorer so far this season makes this Purdue backcourt a real challenge for opposing defenses. He went for 34, 20, and 22 in a three-game span during this win streak, but still remains one of the country's best passers. In fact, his 8.9 assists per game put him third nationally, behind Louisiana Tech's Sean Newman Jr. and Gonzaga's Ryan Nembhard.

College Football Playoff Picks 2024-25: Orange Bowl, Cotton Bowl

Quinn Ewers, Texas

Orange Bowl: (7) Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ (6) Penn State Nittany Lions (Miami Gardens)

Line: Notre Dame -1.5

O/U: 44.5

Few programs in recent college football history have epitomized being good, but not quite good enough, quite like Notre Dame and Penn State. Both have been remarkably consistent, particularly since the mid-2010s, but neither has been able to have their true breakthrough moment. For one of these programs, that will change on Thursday night in Miami Gardens. One team will get the opportunity to move on to the National Championship Game and potentially erase their late-season demons. Will it be the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, who recovered from a stunning early September defeat to Northern Illinois to get to this point? Or, will it be the Penn State Nittany Lions, a team that far too often has played third wheel to Ohio State and Michigan in the Big Ten, but now awaits their biggest game in years? The storylines write themselves, and the first semifinal of the 12-team College Football Playoff should be an exciting game, set to go down to the wire.

Notre Dame spent big over the offseason to bring on offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock from LSU and pair him with Duke transfer Riley Leonard at quarterback. Yet, there's nothing remarkably different with this offense than what we've come to expect from the Irish over the years. They remain a ground-and-pound team that will lean heavily on their defense and bully opponents into submission. Leonard has been rock-solid in much the same mold of an Ian Book, a steady figurehead running the offense who takes care of the football. He'll take the occasional shot down the field, but this is an overall conservative passing attack for the most part. Leonard does give the Irish an edge with his rushing ability, which has been passing at this position in the past for ND, but you do wonder how eager the Irish will be to rush him considering this will be the 15th game on their schedule - and they may just have one more game left. Alongside Leonard, Jadarian Price and Jeremiyah Love remain a strong duo in the backfield, with either having proven they can handle the load. Love isn't 100 percent after getting banged up in their massive Sugar Bowl victory over Georgia, but should be at a good enough place to still see a heavy workload in this one. Up front, the Irish have looked their usual ferocious selves after a shaky start to the fall, and out wide, it's also a similar story. The Irish don't exactly have a true headliner at receiver, but this is a deep group, and you always wonder if this is the game one of them has a true breakout. Beaux Collins finished as their leading receiver, but you have to feel like Jaden Greathouse and Jordan Faison are the real threats this Penn State defense has to be concerned with. Consistency has been a problem with both, but they have the game-breaking speed to cause real damage if they do get some space. Even so, I don't suspect the Irish will stray too far from their gameplan. They'll look to turn this into a field position game, especially against an aggressive Penn State defense. The Nittany Lions potentially being without star edge rusher Abdul Carter would certainly reduce much of the pressure on this Irish defense, but this is still going to be a methodical approach on the big stage.

Much like Notre Dame, the Nittany Lions brought on a new play-caller over the offseason, and it has been instrumental in them being one of the four teams still alive in the National Championship hunt. Offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki hasn't completely revamped this side of the ball, but he's done a superb job maximizing Penn State's strengths and zoning in on key mismatches. This still remains an offense that will lean on their ground game to fuel them, with Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen being one of the nation's top combos, but QB Drew Allar has also made significant strides in his junior season. Penn State has been limited in that they don't have a true alpha at the receiver position, but they've made do with their short and intermediate stuff. Of course, it helps when they have the John Mackey Award winner at tight end in Tyler Warren, who will line up just about anywhere and should be a key player to hone in on for coordinator Al Golden. Warren's mere presence, and ability to move around in unique formations constantly keeps defenses on their toes, and often opens up opportunities for the other weapons on this roster. He'll obviously get the ball no matter what, but I am curious to see how the rest of this Nittany Lion receiver corps plays against an Irish secondary that is among the best in the nation. However, that's not to say Notre Dame has looked indestructible on the back-end - they were gashed by USC down the stretch and if not for several pivotal drops by Georgia receivers, likely would have given up serious yardage to the Bulldogs. You get the feeling Penn State is going to get one or two major opportunities through the air in this game, and if they're able to capitalize in a way Georgia was not, it could certainly swing this game in their direction.

The similarities between these two run deep. It's not just two historically great teams that are looking to climb the mountaintop once again for the first time since the 1980s, but they also play a similar brand of football. They want to establish the run and play ball control offensively, rely on a physical defense, and do just enough to come out victorious. There's nothing particularly pretty about either team, but there's no reason to doubt their effectiveness - they're both sitting one win away from a National Championship Game after all. It feels like this is going to a nail-biter where one or two big plays is going to make all the difference, a true coin flip. Coaching may make all the difference in a game like this, and I've been incredibly impressed by what Marcus Freeman has been able to do in important, close games throughout his short Notre Dame tenure. Despite his relative lack of experience compared to James Franklin, I simply trust him more. And I trust him to bring the Irish to their first National Championship Game in over a decade on Thursday night.

The Pick: Notre Dame, 24 Penn State, 21

College Football Playoff Picks 2024-25: Fiesta Bowl, Peach Bowl

Ashton Jeanty, Boise State

Fiesta Bowl: (6) Penn State Nittany Lions @ (3) Boise State Broncos (Glendale)

Line: Penn State -11.5

O/U: 54.5

For much of the BCS era, Boise State was the lovable underdog, crashing a system designed for the sport's heavyweights. As we've transitioned to the 12-team CFB Playoff era, they're in a slightly different position, operating as the higher seed and "home" team in this year's Fiesta Bowl. In the way of the Broncos this time around are the Penn State Nittany Lions, fresh off a dominant showing in their first round win over SMU. With entry into the Playoff semifinals on the line and fun matchups all across the board in this game, it should be a fun way to kick off the quarterfinals of the first 12-team Playoff.

Needless to say, Boise State's offense revolves around superstar tailback Ashton Jeanty, in the midst of one of the greatest running back seasons in college football history. Jeanty has rushed for 2,497 yards and 29 touchdowns, and it certainly hasn't been simply racking up huge stats against meager competition. In games against Boise State's two toughest opponents on the season, Oregon and UNLV, Jeanty rushed for 192, 128, and 209 (played UNLV twice). He should relish this opportunity against a strong Penn State defense, a program that has long been known as a factory of elite linebacker play. This Nittany Lion defense is particularly strong up front - Abdul Carter sets the edge as a relentless pass rusher after transitioning from linebacker, and the trio of Kobe King, Tony Rojas, and Dom DeLuca plays all over the field, sideline-to-sideline. Jeanty is still a candidate to take a big run or two to the house, as he often does, but he'll have to work for every yard in a way he hasn't often this season. The Nittany Lions will certainly do everything they can to force the Broncos to use their passing game in a way they simply haven't for much of the season in an effort to get them out of their rhythm. Maddux Madsen has been efficient under center and taken care of the football, doing just enough to put Boise in position to win games with Jeanty leading the way. But, is he ready for this type of stage against a blitz-heavy Penn State defense? Former Indiana transfer Cam Camper on the perimeter knows Penn State well, and tight end Matt Lauter and Latrell Caples will also be featured heavily. How effective they are against a Nittany Lion secondary that is still occasionally prone to the big play will be a fascinating watch.

The Penn State offense may not have an Ashton Jeanty, but this is a balanced group that enters the game averaging over 35 points per contest. You'll see play-caller Andy Kotelnicki mix things up quite a bit with this group, including using shifts and unique formations to keep the defense honest. Quarterback Drew Allar is the figurehead, and he's had an impressive junior season, but the Nittany Lions also lean heavily on the running back duo of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen. Allen is more of the short yardage specialist, while it's Singleton that can break open games with his breakaway speed. No matter who is on the field, they'll put pressure on a Boise defense that hasn't really seen a two-headed monster in the backfield quite like this, even against their toughest opponents. The Bronco defense will also have to contend with tight end Tyler Warren, one of the most interesting players in college football. Warren will line up truly everywhere, even taking some snaps out of the backfield. The Broncos must be creative in how they cover him, without leaving themselves too exposed to the other weapons Penn State can throw at them. You also get the feeling Andy Kotelnicki may have further tricks up his sleeve for this type of big stage. Trick plays, gadget plays, another different formation - he's going to keep Boise constantly guessing for the entire sixty minutes. 

In their fourth Fiesta Bowl, Boise State will rock their usual uniform combination - a blue, white, orange look that they are currently 3-0 in. Certainly the energy and "vibes" will be there for the Broncos, but this is an incredibly tough matchup for them. Penn State is an exceptionally balanced and well-rounded football team, and they are focused in after their first round dominance. I figure they do just enough to contain Jeanty and they pound the rock the other way, where they hold a superior edge in the trenches. I don't suspect a super pretty football game, but I figure the Nittany Lions will come out victorious.

The Pick: Penn State, 30 Boise State, 17

College Football Playoff Picks 2024-25: Texas-Clemson, Ohio State-Tennessee

Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State

College Football Playoff First Round: (12) Clemson Tigers @ (5) Texas Longhorns

Line: Texas -12

O/U: 51.5

After a three-year hiatus, the Clemson Tigers are returning to the College Football Playoff. Their reward? The fifth-seeded Texas Longhorns, who were battling for a potential top overall seed in the SEC Championship Game before ultimately coming up short against Georgia. It will be an uphill battle for Dabo Swinney and the Tigers as they travel to Austin as two touchdown underdogs, but also an opportunity to prove they still belong in the conversation of truly elite teams on a national level.

Clemson's three-point effort in the season-opening loss to Georgia was quite the concerning start for a program that had suffered through a startling amount of offensive woes the year prior, their worst season in a decade-and-a-half. But since that game, the Tiger offense has flipped a switch, utilizing a balanced attack to average 37.4 PPG and serve as the catalyst for the eventual ACC Champion. Quarterback Cade Klubnik has been the figurehead, a guy who had a frustrating first season as starter in 2023, but has shown tremendous growth this fall. Klubnik has always had the arm talent, but he's played with significantly more confidence this season and has been willing to air it out in a way we simply didn't see previously. This still isn't an aerial attack at the level of the prime Deshaun Watson or Trevor Lawrence years, but the Tigers can truly stretch the field vertically. It has certainly helped Klubnik that the receiver corps has also seen major improvements, with Antonio Williams solidifying himself as a solid No. 1 and the young guys, T.J. Moore and Bryant Wesco Jr., seemingly getting better each and every week. I think the momentum the Clemson passing game will take into this one has a real chance to continue. Texas has been good enough on the back-end to be successful, but they thrive off turnovers. If Klubnik and company can take care of the football, which they've done for much of the year, they have a real chance to rack up some major yardage through the air. Where the Texas defense does hold an advantage, however, is up front, where they feature a host of future NFL defensive linemen and a budding superstar in linebacker Anthony Hill. Vernon Broughton is the big name for the Longhorn defensive line on the interior, but this is a group that is deep and relentless, going up against a Clemson O-Line that hasn't seen athletes like this since the Georgia game. These Tiger blockers are experienced, but I wouldn't be surprised if there isn't a bit of shell-shock initially with what Texas throws at them. And if Clemson isn't able to recover and tailback Phil Mafah is held in check, the Tigers may have to press offensively in a way they haven't had to for much of the season. If that indeed happens, how they handle that adversity will tell us a lot about this football team - when they fell behind to UGA and Louisville early, they simply were not able to recover.

The Longhorns faced their fair share of obstacles offensively on the season, albeit in a different way than Clemson. Injuries have ended up being an unfortunate theme of the fall for Texas, beginning in fall camp with a season-ending injury to C.J. Baxter, who was primed for a huge year as the feature back. Since then, the Longhorns have watched as QB Quinn Ewers has faced a myriad of health problems, and now enter the CFB Playoff with their top target, Isaiah Bond, and top O-Linemen, Kelvin Banks Jr., both banged up. It sounds like Banks is in line to return to action after missing the SEC Championship Game, but Bond's status is a little bit more up in the air as we stand at the time of publishing. Losing a player like Bond would be huge for this Longhorn offense - he's not just their most productive wide receiver, his mere presence commands the defense's attention, and opens up opportunities elsewhere. There are other weapons Ewers can take advantage of, including Matthew Golden and rock-solid tight end Gunnar Helm Jr., but it will be interesting to see how this passing game operates in this one. Fortunately, the ground game has really improved since the start of the season, with sophomore Quintrevion Wisner really emerging as a lead back. He should be eager to get back on the field after being held in check by Georgia, and able to give this strong Clemson defensive front a challenge. In fact, it's the battle between this Clemson front seven and Texas O-Line that I may be the most excited about. The Tigers remain an NFL Draft factory with what they do in their front seven, while Steve Sarkisian's buildup of the Longhorn offensive line has been the secret sauce to their recent success. Even in a game like this, with so much talent on the field, I suspect whoever maintains the edge in the trenches will come out victorious.

Heading into this Playoff, the Longhorns were my National Title pick. And they still are - despite the injury questions that still seem to be hanging over them. But, this is a tough first round game, even if this Clemson team still has their flaws. They still have NFL athletes on both sides of the ball that should be able to challenge the 'Horns, and Klubnik is enough of a weapon himself to test this Texas secondary. I still think Texas finds a way to outlast them in Austin, but I think this could be a tight one until the very end.

The Pick: Texas, 31 Clemson, 28

College Football Playoff Picks 2024-25: Notre Dame-Indiana, SMU-Penn State

Drew Allar, Penn State

College Football Playoff First Round: (10) Indiana Hoosiers @ (7) Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Line: Notre Dame -7.5

O/U: 51.5

The state of Indiana has always been known for their basketball, but the success of the Indiana Hoosiers this fall now sets up an exciting in-state matchup between the state's flagship universities - on the gridiron. It really is the type of first round matchup the College Football Playoff was going for in its expansion to 12 teams, pitting the traditional power (Notre Dame) against the upstart Hoosiers, a program with almost no football history to speak of. Add to that the fact the programs are separated by just 200 miles and there's a real chance of snow in the forecast, this game has all the makings of a classic in South Bend.

As shocking as Notre Dame's loss to Northern Illinois was in early September, the Irish deserve all the credit in the world for their response over these last three months. They've won ten straight games, including three over ranked foes, and absolutely pummeled most of their competition en route to the 11-1 regular season finish. They've done so with an extremely balanced scheme and a well-coached, smothering defense that has allowed the Irish to beat opponents in any way they please. Quarterback Riley Leonard, who transferred over from Duke for a one-season run with the Irish, has looked in complete command after a shaky start. He hasn't been asked to air it out, but instead lead a methodical, quick attack passing game that relies heavily on timing. The passing game has been incredibly balanced - six different Notre Dame pass-catchers have recorded 190 or more receiving yards, but only one, Beaux Collins, is over the 400 yard mark. I'll be curious to see whether Notre Dame choses to continue that balance into the Playoffs. The knock on this program throughout much of the Brian Kelly years were that their lack of explosive playmakers on the outside restricted them from going head-to-head against the true elites of the sport. Guys like Collins and Jaden Greathouse are good enough to give opposing defenses on the perimeter, but how aggressive offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock chooses to be will tell us whether that issue has persisted into big games in the Marcus Freeman era. Either way, the Irish should still lean heavily on their ground game, especially considering this matchup. Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price have been a superb 1-2 punch out of the backfield, and are operating behind an offensive line that has improved drastically since Week One of the season. This group seems like they'll be able to neutralize Mikail Kamara and the rest of a physical Hoosier defensive front, pounding the rock and limiting Indiana's offensive possessions. Notre Dame has no problem making this is a low-scoring, ugly type of game. That still is their comfort zone and considering the potential weather, it certainly feels like the right strategy.

Curt Cignetti instantly set off fireworks his brash confidence upon taking the Indiana job, but there's no denying what a superb job he has done in Year One in Bloomington. Sure, the Hoosiers played a favorable schedule, but they've looked every bit like one of the Top 12 teams in the country, one year removed from a nine-loss season under Tom Allen. The team is well-coached, disciplined, and prepared each and every week, and they should relish the opportunity to show what they can do against an in-state rival. The Irish defense will be quite the test for them with what Al Golden can draw up as offensive coordinator. However, quarterback Kurtis Rourke and the rest of these Hoosiers have not been intimidated by any opponent all season, and they should be ready to go for this one. Rourke in particular has to be feeling good after seeing what the Irish defense looked like in their final game of the regular season against USC. Although they still came out victorious, Notre Dame was regularly burned by Lincoln Riley and an aggressive Trojan passing game, a really concerning look for a group that has looked so good for much of the year. Of course, Lincoln Riley is quite the offensive genius, but Notre Dame has clearly missed star cornerback Benjamin Morrison, who is out for the season. Look for the Hoosiers to take their shots down the field, especially early on, to feel out what adjustments the Irish made over the last couple weeks. Elijah Sarratt and Omar Cooper aren't just Indiana's top two receivers, they're both deep threats that have proven they can break open games. Cooper is averaging over 21 yards per catch, and has to be a player to key in on for Golden and the rest of this Notre Dame defense. The Hoosiers are able to feature a rushing attack that is quite the complement to what they do throwing the football, but this will be a tough matchup for them. Justice Ellison and Ty Son Lawton are more than capable, but the Irish are as good of a front seven as you'll see in college football. They're not quite as athletic up front as they've been in the past, but between Jack Kiser, Drayk Bowen, and this ferocious defensive line, they're going to make Indiana work for every inch.

The first game of the 12-team College Football Playoff era should be a competitive one, but I'm not sure it's going to be the prettiest, highest-scoring game of the first round. Considering how these two will look to play and the weather element, I get the sense this is going to be a little bit of an ugly, grinding type of football game. Both of these teams are capable of winning that type of game, but I just trust the Irish a bit more in their identity and what they know they can do. The Hoosiers will not be an easy out, but ND wins the battle of Indiana this time around.

The Pick: Notre Dame, 27 Indiana, 17

NFL Mock Draft 2025: Edition 1 (Early Edition)

Cam Ward, Miami (FL)

 * Draft order determined prior to NFL Week 14 games

1. Jacksonville Jaguars

Travis Hunter, WR/CB, Colorado

Unless something drastic changes over the course of the next week, Travis Hunter is almost sure to take home the 2024 Heisman Trophy. That's likely to be just the beginning of the accolades for the two-way superstar after an impressive 2024 campaign, with the culmination to be him crowned as the top overall pick in next spring's NFL Draft. There remains an open question what exact role Hunter will have at the next level, but a talent like this comes along once a generation - there will be little question which direction Jacksonville goes here if they do indeed secure the No. 1 pick.

2. Las Vegas Raiders

Shedeur Sanders, QB, Colorado

There's a very real chance Travis Hunter and Shedeur Sanders go 1-2 when it's all said and done this next spring. Sanders has his fair share of detractors, but there's little denying the huge numbers he's put up over the course of two seasons at Colorado, and his huge arm would jolt this Las Vegas offense out of a long slumber. There's also something to be said about the fit here - Shedeur just feels like a future Raider, doesn't he?

3. New York Giants

Cam Ward, QB, Miami (FL)

At long last, the Daniel Jones experiment is over. The Giants will undoubtedly be looking for a new franchise signal-caller to guide the franchise starting next fall, and Miami's Cam Ward fits the bill. Ward's decision to hold off on the NFL for an extra year after flirting with going pro last winter has proved to be an excellent decision, giving him more time to show off his skillset to scouts and vaulting him into Top 5 pick territory.

College Football Picks 2024: Week Fifteen (Championship Week)

Jordan James, Oregon

Current Picks Record: 75-41

Upsets: 5-10

Supderdogs: 7-4

Big Ten Championship Game: (#3) Penn State Nittany Lions @ (#1) Oregon Ducks (Indianapolis)

Line: Oregon -3.5

O/U: 50.5

In a college football season defined primarily by parity at the top, Oregon has been one of the few constants as the final remaining undefeated team in college football. As they look to secure the top overall seed in the College Football Playoff and win a Big Ten title in their first year in the league, it's the one-loss Penn State Nittany Lions who stand in their way.

Statistically, Oregon's offense hasn't quite played at the level of the 2023 group, but it's been remarkably consistent. Aside from their season opener against Idaho and16-point outing against Wisconsin, two games the Ducks still managed to win, this group has scored 31 points or more in every single outing this fall. Quarterback Dillon Gabriel dealt with turnover problems early on, but he's been near perfect since Oregon's massive win over Ohio State, with just three interceptions in that span. Surrounding him is a fun cast of characters, with Tez Johnson, Evan Stewart, and Traeshon Holden putting pressure on opposing defenses on the perimeter, and tailbacks Jordan James and Noah Whittington pounding underneath. The ability of James to pound the ball between the tackles opens up this entire unit, and the versatility of the receiver corps is a real problem for opposing defenses. Johnson is a problem with what he can do after the catch, and Stewart's ability to win 50/50 balls gives Gabriel quite an out when he's under pressure. Tight end Terrance Ferguson should also get some love, an underrated piece of the puzzle who has played out in some of Oregon's most crucial games this year. All in all, it's quite the challenge for Tom Allen and a Penn State defense that has had an incredible year themselves. The Nittany Lions have more than enough up front to make Oregon work for every yard, but I am concerned about this secondary holding up over the course of four quarters. Either way, it should be a really fun matchup to watch, and I'm zoning in on one position battle in particular: Abdul Carter vs. this Duck O-Line. There's a good chance we see potential first-rounders battling it out in Carter going up against tackle Josh Conerly Jr.

Andy Kotelnicki has been a superb hire by James Franklin in running this Penn State offense, but now comes his most important test. The Nittany Lions have opened things up this fall, and Kotelnicki has become quite the tactician with this group, running some of the most interesting formations and shifts you'll see in college football. The result has been a unit that averages 33.3 points per game, with a real mix of the run and the pass. However, one game has overshadowed the success of this group: a 13-point showing in a loss to Ohio State, in which the Nittany Lions managed just 270 yards per game and zero offensive touchdowns. This is a program looking to shed their reputation of not showing up in the most important games, and that pressure falls squarely on the offense, namely Kotelnicki and quarterback Drew Allar. Allar has continued to develop in his second full season as starter, and has shown an excellent command of this offense. But is he ready to lead Penn State to victory against this fierce Duck defense? There are weapons to help out, namely do-it-all tight end Tyler Warren, the dynamic duo of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, and a solid receiver corps. But it really feels like it's going to be Allar who is going to make all the difference. Taking care of the ball is one thing, but I do feel like the Nittany Lions are going to have to take some shots to keep the Ducks on their toes. The way Penn State has won against other Big Ten teams, where they have relied on their physicality to outlast foes, it just won't work here. Oregon has the athletes and depth on the defensive side of the ball - it will be fascinating to see what Kotelnicki comes up with.

It's so hard to go undefeated in the modern era of college football just in the regular season, but winning 13 games, including a conference championship game? Oregon is certainly going to have to work hard for this one, but they still like the smarter pick. We haven't seen Penn State win these types of games regularly under James Franklin. That doesn't mean they can't, they certainly have the talent on this roster. But, until we see it, I'm picking the Ducks to win.

The Pick: Oregon, 35 Penn State, 24

College Football Picks 2024: Week Fourteen

Marcel Reed, Texas A&M

 

Current Picks Record: 68-39

Upsets: 5-9

Superdogs: 6-4

(#3) Texas Longhorns @ (#20) Texas A&M Aggies

Line: Texas -5.5

O/U: 48.5 

It's back! After a decade-and-a-half of being dead, the "Lone Star Showdown" between Texas and Texas A&M returns this weekend and has serious implications. The game may not only decide who ends up in the SEC Championship Game, it will have a significant impact on the College Football Playoff race as we hit the home stretch of the regular season. As if the return of the rivalry wasn't reason enough to tune in, such an important game should provide plenty of entertainment this Saturday.

Texas enters the game as winners of four straight contests, but there are questions for the Longhorns as they prepare for the weekend. Quarterback Quinn Ewers injured his ankle in the win over Kentucky last weekend, and has been dealing with a mild sprain throughout the week. The assumption is that he'll still start as normal, but it's unfortunate timing as the Longhorns prepare for their most important game of the regular season. It would not be surprising if we do see some of Arch Manning, even if it's in designed packages. Either way, Texas could certainly use help from a supporting cast that has had an up-and-down fall, despite the offensive success. Quintrevion Wisner and Jaydon Blue remain an effective duo out of the backfield, but they do face down an imposing A&M defensive front, one that should be extra motivated by the bright lights of the rivalry game. On the outside, Texas has struggled to find a consistent No. 1 all season, as they've sorely missed Xavier Worthy's playmaking. Matthew Golden has emerged as their most reliable weapon over the past month and Isaiah Bond is a home run hitter, but it will be interesting to see whether the duo show up for this one. Tight end Gunnar Helm is actually the team's leading receiver and should play a pivotal role in the underneath stuff, which could help expose A&M over-the-top. That has to be a concern for the Aggies, who have suffered breakdowns on the back end in the last few weeks we weren't used to seeing early on this fall. Now, Texas doesn't have a Cam Coleman like Auburn did last Saturday, but Mike Elko and this staff have to figure out what went wrong and adjust quickly. We've seen Ewers show out in these types of games and with his arm, one or two deep balls could change the entire complexion of this rivalry game. 

Although they ended up putting 41 points on the board in the loss to Auburn last weekend, A&M has to be feeling like they could have done even more after a dropped pass by Amari Daniels in the end zone prevented them from sending it into another overtime. That should give this offense even more reason to come out firing, and they've really turned the page down the stretch after taking time to gel early on this season. Marcel Reed has solidified his role as the starting quarterback over Conner Weigman, with Reed playing with a poise and maturity well beyond his years. There are still occasionally the questionable decisions, but he has put the Aggies consistently in a position to win, and shouldn't be intimidated at all by this Texas defense. That doesn't mean we should expect A&M to be chucking the ball all over the field - their bread and butter remains their efficient ground game. However, the Aggies do seem to be getting more comfortable going vertical with this offense as Reed has gained more experience, and the rhythm of this passing attack with Noah Thomas looked awfully impressive a week ago. The Longhorn defense poses an interesting challenge - despite the departures they took in their front seven over the offseason, they've been stout up front, setting the tone for the entire defense. A&M is a much more physical and athletic team than they've seen for some time, probably since the Georgia game, when the Bulldogs were pretty beat up on the offensive line. This is going to have the real feel of an SEC contest, with these two duking it out in the trenches, and the athletes on both sides of the ball are vastly different than what we became accustomed to all those years in the Big 12.

Not only is it a treat to see these two resume their long-standing rivalry, but the fact that there is so much on the line makes this the most consequential game of rivalry weekend. It's been over a month since the Longhorns played a team on the level of Texas A&M, so I think there will be have to be adjustments throughout the sixty minutes, but they seem to be playing better football at this point in the year and bring a clear identity to the table. Even with the questions around Ewers, Texas is the stronger football team - for now. 

The Pick: Texas, 31 Texas A&M, 21

College Football Picks 2024: Week Thirteen

Kurtis Rourke, Indiana

Current Picks Record: 63-35

Upsets: 5-8

Superdogs: 5-4

(#5) Indiana Hoosiers @ (#2) Ohio State Buckeyes

Line: Ohio State -11

O/U: 52.5

Few rivalries in college football are as lopsided as the series between the Ohio State Buckeyes and Indiana Hoosiers. Since the turn of the 1900s, the Hoosiers have won just 12 games against the Buckeyes, with nearly half of those coming pre-1913. They have beaten Ohio State just twice since 1951, with the last win coming all the way back in 1988. This Saturday, Indiana will look to not just flip the script in the long-standing rivalry and beat OSU but strengthen their College Football Playoff resume with the big win that has eluded them up to this point. It's not exaggeration to call it the most important game in Indiana football history.

The Hoosiers may not have the household names on offense others feature, but there's little denying this group has exceeded expectations the entirety of the fall. They average nearly 44 points per game on the offensive side, featuring a balanced, efficient group of playmakers. Quarterback Kurtis Rourke has been the catalyst despite dealing with injuries over the second half of the season, as he's thrown for 2,410 yards and 21 touchdowns, while completing 72% of his throws. Surrounding him, the duo of Justice Ellison and Ty Son Lawton give the ground game plenty of pop, while Elijah Sarratt and big-play threat Omar Cooper Jr. challenges defenses vertically. None of these four are going to finish the year as All-Americans, but the Indiana offense as a whole works cohesively as well as anyone in the country. Ellison and Lawton do just enough to keep defenses honest, and the depth and versatility of the receiver corps provide this offense with plenty of explosiveness. It should be enough to give Jim Knowles and this Ohio State defense a challenge. Knowles has done an excellent job with this group, but the Oregon loss did show the secondary has their fair share of weaknesses, and the rush defense could be in store for a tough game this late in the season. With that being said, Ohio State does seem to have a clear edge in the trenches, with their entire starting defensive line all certain to be future NFL pros. Indiana has been strong up front all season, an underrated element to their success, but this is a whole different challenge altogether. This isn't like the Oregon game, where the Ducks will be able to counter with one of the nation's top offensive lines, a group full of future pros themselves. Indiana is at a clear disadvantage here, and the Buckeyes can disrupt their entire offensive flow with what they do at the line of scrimmage.

There have been occasional growing pains for this Ohio State offense after breaking in a new play-caller (Chip Kelly) with a new quarterback and several fresh faces, but this unit seems to be playing their best ball at the right time. At this point, we know who Will Howard is going to be for the Buckeyes - he's unlikely to elevate this offense, but he doesn't need to with the talent they have at tailback and receiver. What the Buckeyes need is what Howard provides: a steady, consistent quarterback that does just enough to put his team in winning situations. Of course, it helps when you have Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson coming out of the backfield, and the likes of Jeremiah Smith, Emeka Egbuka, and more on the perimeter. The depth on this roster is what really sets apart Ohio State for me, and why they were my preseason National Title pick. This deep into a season, every team is beat up, but the fact the Buckeyes can call on former blue-chip recruits farther down their depth chart is a huge advantage. Don't be shocked if we see a figure like a Brandon Inniss have a moment in this one, a player who would start at just about anywhere else in the country who is reduced to a complementary role in this offense. With that being said, I'm keeping a close eye on the battle in the trenches on this side of the ball, too. The loss of center Seth McLaughlin, who tore his Achilles in practice earlier in the week, is a massive loss. It will force the Buckeyes to mix and match up front and leaves them exposed on the interior against an Indiana that features Mikhail Kamara, probably the best interior D-Linemen in the Big Ten. It's a position group to watch, as the Hoosiers are much tougher along their front seven than the average fan may assume.

Two things can be true at once - Indiana has benefitted from a miraculously easy schedule to this point and yet, they're also a tremendous football team that can certainly give the Buckeyes a run for their money in Columbus. I'm just not sure they have the athletes to compete with Ohio State full a full 60 minutes, no matter how well-coached they may be. I suspect a tight game into the fourth quarter, where the Buckeyes talent advantage becomes too much to overcome.

The Pick: Ohio State, 34 Indiana, 21

College Football Picks 2024: Week Twelve

Dylan Sampson, Tennessee

Current Picks Record: 56-32

Upsets: 4-8

Superdogs: 5-3

(#7) Tennessee Volunteers @ (#12) Georgia Bulldogs

Line: Georgia -9.5

O/U: 47.5

Georgia is facing down unfamiliar territory as they welcome Tennessee to town this weekend: the possibility of a third regular season loss and a likely elimination from the College Football Playoff. It has moved into must-win for the Bulldogs, but with the Volunteers on a Playoff quest of their own, it should be quite the battle in Athens on Saturday night.

Carson Beck entered the 2024 campaign as a Heisman frontrunner and likely first-round NFL Draft selection, but the veteran quarterback has had pronounced struggles in recent weeks. He's now thrown an interception in four straight games, including three each against Texas and Florida. They aren't a result of bad luck either, such as a tipped pass or receiver drops - they have been terrible decisions, trying to fit the ball in tight windows against SEC defenses. It's fair to wonder where his head is at as he preps for another important game, against another turnover-hungry defense. Georgia doesn't need him to be throwing for 400 yards and five touchdowns a game, what they need is for him to make smart decisions and take care of the ball, which just hasn't happened in the big moments this fall. To be fair to Beck, the supporting cast hasn't quite been at Georgia standards. They've lacked a true go-to weapon on the outside, although Dominic Lovett and Arian Smith have proven to be their most reliable, and the backfield has been hit by injuries, with Trevor Etienne ruled out for this contest. The offensive line has also taken their lumps on the year, which has forced Beck into uncomfortable situations he's clearly not used to. But, if the Bulldogs are to get back on track, they need their quarterback to play with more confidence. I wonder if they'll look to get him a rhythm early with shorter, easier throws and look to incorporate screens into the offense. He's still going to have to make some throws down-the-field, but that should help him get into a groove and nullify an aggressive Tennessee pass rush. Freshman Nate Frazier and do-it-all Dillon Bell should also be counted on heavily with Etienne's absence. They're going to need to carve up some yardage against a strong Volunteer front, and use up some clock to get their defense a rest going the other way. It's no easy task against one of the best defensive fronts in the SEC, but the Bulldogs have won out in these types of games before, and will try for a repeat of that same formula in this one.

Tennessee has had their share of offensive struggles in much the same vein as Georgia, quite the surprise given Josh Heupel's reputation for having high-octane offenses. Sophomore quarterback Nico Iamaleava has had flashes, but he hasn't taken off the way most expected when he was handed control of the offense heading into the season. And now, his status is uncertain for this one after he left last week's Mississippi State game with a head injury. Earlier in the week it sounded likely he was going to play, but the mood has seemingly shifted around him over the last few days. If he's not able to go, Tennessee will turn to senior Gaston Moore, who came on in relief last weekend and threw a total of eight passes. I suspect Nico will try his best to go, but if not, the Volunteer offense is likely to become all about the ground-and-pound, with tailback Dylan Sampson set to lead the charge. Sampson has been a pleasant surprise, one of the big reasons the Volunteers are seventh in the country, and he's evolved into a true workhorse for this team. That could create quite the matchup, as Georgia's defensive front, while inconsistent, remains among the best in the nation. The Bulldogs don't always show up but when they do, they look much in the same vein as the dominant groups that led this defense in the late 2010s and early 2020s. Jalon Walker, Mykel Williams, and Chaz Chambliss should all be ready to go - look no further than their play in the Texas game as a reminder that this defensive front can still take over games when they're playing well.

While is not a true Playoff elimination game considering Tennessee only has one loss, it's hard to imagine Georgia finding a way to sneak in with three losses. But, I don't suspect that's something Kirby Smart and the 'Dawgs are going to have to think about just yet. Despite the struggles and even after a flat performance last weekend, I think they're the right choice here. With Nico's status in question and with this being in Athens, this one trends to Georgia.

The Pick: Georgia, 24 Tennessee, 20