Current Picks Record: 63-35
Kurtis Rourke, Indiana
Upsets: 5-8
Superdogs: 5-4
(#5) Indiana Hoosiers @ (#2) Ohio State Buckeyes
Line: Ohio State -11
O/U: 52.5
Few rivalries in college football are as lopsided as the series between the Ohio State Buckeyes and Indiana Hoosiers. Since the turn of the 1900s, the Hoosiers have won just 12 games against the Buckeyes, with nearly half of those coming pre-1913. They have beaten Ohio State just twice since 1951, with the last win coming all the way back in 1988. This Saturday, Indiana will look to not just flip the script in the long-standing rivalry and beat OSU but strengthen their College Football Playoff resume with the big win that has eluded them up to this point. It's not exaggeration to call it the most important game in Indiana football history.
The Hoosiers may not have the household names on offense others feature, but there's little denying this group has exceeded expectations the entirety of the fall. They average nearly 44 points per game on the offensive side, featuring a balanced, efficient group of playmakers. Quarterback Kurtis Rourke has been the catalyst despite dealing with injuries over the second half of the season, as he's thrown for 2,410 yards and 21 touchdowns, while completing 72% of his throws. Surrounding him, the duo of Justice Ellison and Ty Son Lawton give the ground game plenty of pop, while Elijah Sarratt and big-play threat Omar Cooper Jr. challenges defenses vertically. None of these four are going to finish the year as All-Americans, but the Indiana offense as a whole works cohesively as well as anyone in the country. Ellison and Lawton do just enough to keep defenses honest, and the depth and versatility of the receiver corps provide this offense with plenty of explosiveness. It should be enough to give Jim Knowles and this Ohio State defense a challenge. Knowles has done an excellent job with this group, but the Oregon loss did show the secondary has their fair share of weaknesses, and the rush defense could be in store for a tough game this late in the season. With that being said, Ohio State does seem to have a clear edge in the trenches, with their entire starting defensive line all certain to be future NFL pros. Indiana has been strong up front all season, an underrated element to their success, but this is a whole different challenge altogether. This isn't like the Oregon game, where the Ducks will be able to counter with one of the nation's top offensive lines, a group full of future pros themselves. Indiana is at a clear disadvantage here, and the Buckeyes can disrupt their entire offensive flow with what they do at the line of scrimmage.
There have been occasional growing pains for this Ohio State offense after breaking in a new play-caller (Chip Kelly) with a new quarterback and several fresh faces, but this unit seems to be playing their best ball at the right time. At this point, we know who Will Howard is going to be for the Buckeyes - he's unlikely to elevate this offense, but he doesn't need to with the talent they have at tailback and receiver. What the Buckeyes need is what Howard provides: a steady, consistent quarterback that does just enough to put his team in winning situations. Of course, it helps when you have Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson coming out of the backfield, and the likes of Jeremiah Smith, Emeka Egbuka, and more on the perimeter. The depth on this roster is what really sets apart Ohio State for me, and why they were my preseason National Title pick. This deep into a season, every team is beat up, but the fact the Buckeyes can call on former blue-chip recruits farther down their depth chart is a huge advantage. Don't be shocked if we see a figure like a Brandon Inniss have a moment in this one, a player who would start at just about anywhere else in the country who is reduced to a complementary role in this offense. With that being said, I'm keeping a close eye on the battle in the trenches on this side of the ball, too. The loss of center Seth McLaughlin, who tore his Achilles in practice earlier in the week, is a massive loss. It will force the Buckeyes to mix and match up front and leaves them exposed on the interior against an Indiana that features Mikhail Kamara, probably the best interior D-Linemen in the Big Ten. It's a position group to watch, as the Hoosiers are much tougher along their front seven than the average fan may assume.
Two things can be true at once - Indiana has benefitted from a miraculously easy schedule to this point and yet, they're also a tremendous football team that can certainly give the Buckeyes a run for their money in Columbus. I'm just not sure they have the athletes to compete with Ohio State full a full 60 minutes, no matter how well-coached they may be. I suspect a tight game into the fourth quarter, where the Buckeyes talent advantage becomes too much to overcome.
The Pick: Ohio State, 34 Indiana, 21
(#14) BYU Cougars @ (#21) Arizona State Sun Devils
Line: Arizona State -3
O/U: 48.5
BYU and Arizona State were picked 13th and dead last, respectively, in the preseason Big 12 media poll. Three months later, the two teams are playing one of the most important games on the conference schedule this year, with the winner likely to take on Colorado in the Big 12 Championship Game. Both have been great stories, but only one comes out on top in Tempe this weekend.
BYU has gotten off to a 9-1 start despite a team that is pretty average statistically across the board, including the offense. That's not to diminish what the Cougars have accomplished this season, as the offense has still done enough to put them in position to vie for the College Football Playoff. For that to happen, the Cougars desperately need QB Jake Retzlaff to get back into a groove after back-to-back poor showings. Retzlaff had thrown for multiple pass touchdowns in seven of BYU's first eight games, but he's thrown just one TD combined in their last two, and also dealt with bad turnovers. The Cougar receiver corps has picked some of the slack, with top wideout Chase Roberts still playing well and the rest of the group showing out, but Retzlaff will have to play smart football against a turnover-hungry Arizona State secondary. Retzlaff's ability to open things up with his legs does provide BYU a secret weapon to work with, and the ground game should also provide steady fuel, with L.J. Martin and Hinckley Ropati. Martin and Ropati have effectively split carries and done so at a high level, but I do wonder if the Cougars lean more on the hot hand in this one, which has got to be Martin. The good news for BYU is they face an Arizona State defense that has struggled to get pressure on opposing quarterbacks, so Retzlaff should have more time to operate than he has had in the previous two weeks. The Sun Devils don't blitz often and when they do, they've been ineffective, ranking in at 104th in the country in sack rate. This could certainly be the get right opportunity the Cougars need as they look to finish the regular season strong.
Kenny Dillingham has been considered a rising name in the college football coaching world for some time now, but I'm not sure even the most optimistic ASU fans had this team going 8-2 in Year Two. Dillingham has this time battling each and every week, and they've been successful in a way vastly different than what he did as offensive coordinator at Oregon, when the Ducks spread it out and aired it out with Bo Nix under center. On the contrary, this Arizona State team is all about the ground-and-pound, playing a more throwback style compared to most of the offenses of today. It helps that tailback Cam Skattebo has been a workhorse, over the 1,000-yard mark on the season despite missing time with injury. Skattebo still doesn't appear to be 100 percent and was held in check for much of the Kansas State game, but his mere presence disrupted what the Wildcats were able to do defensively - you have to figure that may be the case for this one too. Quarterback Sam Leavitt still deserves plenty of credit for the work he's done, as the young quarterback, a former Michigan State transfer, has played with a maturity well beyond his years. Leavitt seems to be getting more confident every week, and his chemistry with Jordan Tyson helped the Sun Devils air it out last weekend. Tyson is having a huge month, as the FBS leader in receiving yards in the month of November, but BYU does present a challenge. They've been tremendous defensively all season long, especially against the pass, and their national best 17 interceptions will give Leavitt plenty to think about each time he steps back to pass.
This whole Big 12 season has been a weird one, so it feels like this could be a wacky one to top it all off. BYU's defense gives them a chance in every game they play and a turnover or two could be just what they need to swing this one. But, the Cougars seem to be trending down at the wrong time and with Arizona State entering with all the momentum at home, I like their chances to secure a program-defining win.
The Pick: Arizona State, 27 BYU, 24
Other Picks
(#19) Army Black Knights @ (#6) Notre Dame Fighting Irish -- The biggest game for Army football in a long time, the Knights are going to go all out to win this one in South Bend. But the Irish have shut down the triple already earlier in the year and they are simply too talented to let this one slip away.
The Pick: Notre Dame, 28 Army, 14
(#9) Ole Miss Rebels @ Florida Gators -- The Gators are going to be a dangerous team down the stretch with a healthy D.J. Lagway and a ground game firing on all cylinders but fresh off an emotional win over LSU, I think they come out a little flat against the Rebels.
The Pick: Ole Miss, 38 Florida, 27
(#4) Penn State Nittany Lions @ Minnesota Golden Gophers -- Could the Gophers spring an upset over a Penn State team who just needs to win out and subsequently earn their first-ever Playoff berth? It could be an interesting one, but the Gophers have no answer for do-it-all tight end Tyler Warren, who should will the Nittany Lions to a victory.
The Pick: Penn State, 27 Minnesota, 20
(#7) Alabama Crimson Tide @ Oklahoma Sooners -- The Sooners are fighting just to make a bowl at 5-5 with Alabama and LSU remaining on their schedule. With their offense still struggling, it's hard to imagine they keep pace with the Tide for the entire four quarters.
The Pick: Alabama, 35 Oklahoma, 17
Upset: (#23) Missouri Tigers @ Mississippi State Bulldogs -- I can't for the life of me understand how Missouri is still ranked given their resume, and I suspect that won't be the case for much longer. Mississippi State has played SEC teams much tougher than their record may indicate, and they finally get their first conference win here.
The Pick: Mississippi State, 24 Missouri, 21
Superdog (covers > 21 point spread): Wyoming Cowboys (+23.5) vs. Boise State Broncos -- Boise is cruising to a Group of Five Playoff berth, likely looking ahead to Oregon State to finish their regular season. Don't be surprised if they get caught by Wyoming here, a team that always plays Boise tough and gets them at home in a night game in late November - the perfect ingredients for an upset.
The Pick: Boise State, 31 Wyoming, 21
Lock of the Week: Texas A&M Aggies (-2) @ Auburn Tigers -- Auburn has shown signs of life down the stretch, but this remains a team with a pedestrian offense, at best. I simply do not imagine them doing enough against this Aggie defense to pull off the upset, even on The Plains.
The Pick: Texas A&M, 24 Auburn, 13
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