2017 NCAA Basketball National Championship Prediction

Nigel Williams-Goss

It is a Championship collision of two polar opposite programs; there is the blue-blood, East Coast-hailing North Carolina Tar Heels, who have produced countless NBA stars, have now been to twenty Final Fours and are sneaking their sixth National Title against Gonzaga, a West Coast power that has dominated the tiny West Coast Conference for years but is appearing in their first ever NCAA Championship after winning in their first ever Final Four appearance. One thing not different about either of these teams is their talent and great brand of basketball. The Bulldogs have had little trouble rolling through their region of the NCAA Tournament and is trying to prove to a large group of doubters they can win it all, as the so-called "underdog". On the other side, the Tar Heels won thrillers over Kentucky and Oregon to secure their spot in the NCG, and are looking for redemption after coming within seconds of a National Championship in 2016. This game should be a good one, and one sure to cap off the 2017 campaign in style.

Mark Few has long built impressive teams up in Spokane, Washington, but there is a different feel about this Gonzaga squad. They are the deepest and most talented they maybe have ever been, and have so many offensive weapons it is dizzying at times. The conservation begins with Nigel Williams-Goss, a great story within himself. Williams-Goss was a big-name recruit who didn't win enough at Washington so he joined the Bulldogs. His amazing poise, playmaking ability and finishing touch have led him to become Gonzaga's leading scorer, and their leader. He is, however, far from their only option on the offensive side of the ball. Przemek Karnowski is 7'1" and weighs in at over 300 pounds, yet still has the footwork and mobility of somebody much smaller. Karnowski is not a guy that will take over games but the Polish big man is an absolute force on the block, and should give a deep UNC frontcourt constant headaches. He is aided by true freshman Zach Collins, who put on a show in the Bulldogs Final Four victory over South Carolina. Collins was a highly touted prospect out of Las Vegas, but has still surprised many with his wonderful production all season long. His offensive versatility is extremely impressive and his length defensively is a major factor. He looked like the best player on the court in that win, and NBA scouts love his insane upside. Missouri transfer Jonathan Williams gives the Bulldogs another wiry forward to work with inside, while fellow transfer Jordan Matthews (California) is a tremendous scorer. Add in valuable sophomore guard Josh Perkins, the go-to ball-handler and Gonzaga has a ton of weapons. This offense plays very smart and composed, and that should serve them well no matter the opponent. Yet, if there is a huge question mark for this team, it is their lulls offensively. They aren't incredibly common, but there have been many times over the course of the year where the offense has disappeared (like it did late against South Carolina). The thing is, the defense has stepped up or the opponent hasn't been able to step up usually, but that isn't going to be the case with the Tar Heels. If 'Zaga has a stretch where they can't score, it could be game over. With Williams-Goss, Karnowski and Collins, it shouldn't be a question but it is the biggest worry I have for this team going into the National Championship.

For UNC, the Tar Heels have been terrific all season long, despite the absence of two cornerstones from last year's team, Brice Johnson and Marcus Paige. Much of their success can be contributed to the wild improvement of many veterans, namely Joel Berry II and Justin Jackson. Berry has been wonderful taking over the reigns of the offense from Paige, but is far from 100 percent entering this one. He is struggling with ankle problems, and his health was a major reason for his struggles in their Final Four victory over Oregon. Even if he struggles again, the Tar Heels have many options to pick up the flack, namely Jackson. The junior has long been an athletic swingman that can score close to the rim but his improvement from three-point land has made him extremely dangerous. He played terrific against the Ducks, and is such a tough defensive matchup, which should give Gonzaga some problems. Another huge reason for UNC's Final Four victory was the forceful play of Kennedy Meeks, who recorded a double-double. Meeks has cut down his weight significantly since he arrived in Chapel Hill but at 260-plus pounds he can still push around smaller defenders and become a major impact on the glass, particularly offensively. Meeks and Karnowski should give us quite the battle in the low post, and a battle that could well decide the game. In order for the Heels to win this one, they will need fellow forward Isaiah Hicks to play much better than he has in this tournament. Hicks is a polished finisher around the rim and he can run the floor, but he has still been terribly inconsistent. If he can form a scary punch underneath with Meeks, this team should have that consistent scoring they need to overcome such a talented 'Zaga team. Much like Gonzaga, however, the concerns about their offense over the course of 40 minutes are there. The Tar Heels are so good when they are playing well, but they let Oregon back into the game last night, a trend they have done so often this year.

Talent and experience-wise it is completely understandable why these two teams are the ones left standing heading into the National Championship on Monday night. Yet, both of these teams have questions they need to address in order to finish the job. For Gonzaga, can Karnowski and Collins overpower UNC down low? Can their inconsistent offense play great over the course of the entire game? For North Carolina they need Berry to hopefully feel better and play better in this one and also ensure they don't allow the Bulldogs back into the game themselves if they are able to get a lead. I've gone back and forth on who is going to win this one, because both are deep and balanced and they match up really well against each other. Yet, with Berry's health a serious question and Hicks struggling, my pick is Gonzaga. This team has heard for years they can win all they want in the regular season but aren't good enough to do anything significant in March. With the weapons they have everywhere, and a chip on their shoulder, I like them to win a thriller, and finally bring a National Title to the Pacific Northwest.

Gonzaga by four

Sweet 16 Picks 2017: East, West Regions

Rawle Alkins, Arizona

East Region Semifinal: 8 Wisconsin Badgers vs. 4 Florida Gators
After holding on to defeat the defending champion Villanova Wildcats and watching second-seeded Duke lose in the region, the path to a Final Four is clear for Wisconsin. However, it is not at all a breeze (this is March, after all) and they will collide with Florida in the Sweet 16. The Gators responded from a rough end to the regular season to blow past both East Tennessee State and Virginia, holding the Cavaliers to just 39 points in the victory. The thing that jumps out about both of these teams is the experience in the backcourt, which has fueled their runs so far. Wisconsin has one of the most clutch players in school history in senior Bronson Koenig, who hit a number of big shots to sink Villanova, along with long-time contributor Zak Showalter. Meanwhile, Florida has gotten a big performance from senior Kasey Hill, whose impressive passing ability (4.5 APG) and aggressive rim-attacking has fueled their offense. He is aided by senior Canyon Barry, an intriguing transfer from College of Charleston, whose under-hand free throw shooting is a site to behold, along with leading scorer KeVaughn Allen, who has impressive range. That trio of guards, when paired with swingman Devin Robinson, is very dangerous and gives the Gators' offense some serious bite. The Badgers have long been a great defensive team, but it will be interesting to see how Greg Gard chooses to handle so many dynamic offensive weapons. The Badgers don't have quite the electric scoring punch Florida has, but they have rock-solid veterans that are as reliable as they get. Fellow senior big men Nigel Hayes and Ethan Happ have been terrific all season long, and both have gotten a good taste of March, without actually winning it all. Having those two down low is a distinct advantage for Wisconsin especially when considering John Egbunu, Florida's starting center and superb shot-blocker, is out for the rest of the year. Wisconsin plays a pretty similar style to Virginia; a slow, methodical attack with good defense. That formula didn't stop the rolling Gators in the second round, but I think it should be different here. Wisconsin has more scoring punch than Virginia, and the experience level of the three premier seniors should lead them to a huge victory.
Wisconsin by nine

East Region Semifinal: 3 Baylor Bears vs. 7 South Carolina Gamecocks
Who would have thought this would be one of the semifinals in this region? With Duke rolling and situated as a two seed, and SMU also looking very scary, it didn't look like there was any chance Baylor nor South Carolina would be sitting here. But, that is why they play the games, and one of these teams are going to playing in the Elite Eight. The Gamecocks haven't seen this much success ever, but the big stage shouldn't scare them. They have a number of impressive guards and wings that can score anywhere, namely Sindarius Thornwell and Duane Notice, who were huge parts in their win over Duke. Thornwell is a former highly touted recruit who went to South Carolina to turn things around, and there is little question he has. Notice, meanwhile, is a physical player that should match up well against Baylor's size throughout their lineup. If there is a glaring hole on South Carolina, it is the lack of much post presence beyond forward Chris Silva. Against the Bears, who run their offense through the frontcourt so much that is worrying. Silva will have to be able to stop, or at least contain forward Johnathan Motley. The junior is averaging very near a double-double (17.3 PPG, 9.9 RPG) and can score every time that he touches the ball. Fellow forward Jo Lual-Acuil isn't quite the offensive demon that Motley is, but finishes well around the basket and is a force on the glass, which is so important in gaining more possessions, a component of winning basketball. While those two bang in the paint, Miami transfer Manu Lecomte has run the show at point. Lecomte is still inefficient at times and will have a tough matchup against a swarming South Carolina D, but he has proven he can take over games with his shooting and playmaking ability. Florida versus Wisconsin was a great example of polar opposites squaring off, and I think this game has some similarities. Both of these teams can score in a hurry, but tend to do it in varying ways. Whoever comes into this game hot is obviously going to have the upper hand, and right now South Carolina is playing better. It is hard to call the Gamecocks true Cinderellas, considering they are from the SEC and have been good all year, but this team has been a major surprise and if their offense can keep playing the way they have been, I like them to win a thriller.
South Carolina by three 

West Region Semifinal: 1 Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. 4 West Virginia
Despite being labeled as the "No. 1 seed most likely to lose" by so many, Gonzaga is still very much alive, and continues their quest to slay their March demons. They will get fourth-seeded West Virginia, who has used their frantic and aggressive "Press Virginia" full court-defense to control the tempo of games and overpower 13th-seeded Bucknell and fifth-seeded Notre Dame. That press is going to be out in full force in this one, and it will be interesting to see how Gonzaga handles it. There is so much going on and so much speed on WVU's defense that it is so easy to lose control and the Mountaineers thrive off of that. So much of what they do offensively also leans off that defense, because their offense is pretty bad in the half-court. The Bulldogs are going to look to star Nigel Williams-Goss and sophomore Josh Perkins to be the main men handling that pressure. Williams-Goss is terrific, and one of the major reasons why Gonzaga went 32-1 in the regular season. Perkins is a great ball-handler and has a great feel for the game. Having a week to prepare for that press also helps, but it is so hard to know how a team will react to it, which makes West Virginia so mysterious and so scary. When they do advance the ball up, Gonzaga has an abundance of further options to work with, namely Prezemek Karnowski and Zach Collins down low. Karnowski is absolutely massive and demands attention, which can open up lanes and openings for other Bulldogs. Collins, meanwhile, is just a freshman but his shooting touch and poise are already well past his age. If those guys get enough touches, against a thin WVU frontcourt, Gonzaga should be win. Yet, the Mountaineers have weapons of their own beyond that press. Junior Jevon Carter is streaky but still a terrific scorer, while Nathan Adrian is their main option in the post. Guards Tarik Phillip and Daxter Miles Jr. will also contribute on both sides of the ball, and the Mountaineers have plenty of players that can hit the three, which is such a large component to their offense. It is hard to know which version of West Virginia will come out every night, but I think they should be hyped up and ready to go. Even so, Gonzaga has always had an extremely poised and calm demeanor under head coach Mark Few, which should serve them well here. If Williams-Goss and Perkins can control the pressure, they shouldn't have too much trouble.
Gonzaga by five

West Region Semifinal: 2 Arizona Wildcats vs. 11 Xavier Musketeers
Here is a crazy stat: Xavier has made six Sweet 16s over the past decade, the exact same number as college basketball powerhouses Duke and Kentucky over that span. It just goes to show how consistent the Musketeers are, and a dominant showing in the second round over Florida State has this team thinking bigger as they move on. Yet, Arizona is far from a slouch and my pre-NCAA Tournament Champion (not to say I'm biased) is still rolling, beating a sneaky St. Mary's squad to advance. The Wildcats have their fair share of playmakers in every part of the game, namely Allonzo Trier and Lauri Markkanen. Markkanen was a relatively unknown commodity prior to the year, but has developed into a legitimate stud, averaging 15.8 PPG and 7.2 rebounds per game. He is a versatile and smart offensive player, and it will be interesting to see who Xavier chooses to match up against him. Trier was suspended to begin the year for performance-enhancing drugs but has since returned and taken back his role as the Wildcats most reliable scoring weapon. Add in steady point guard Parker Jackson-Cartwright, powerful wing Rawle Alkins and crazy athletic Kobi Simmons, and there is no wonder why 'Zona won the Pac-12. That offense will have to be feeling it in this one, because the Musketeers have certainly been feeling it themselves. Despite the absence of injured point guard Edmund Sumner, Xavier is still really, really scary. Long-time guard Trevon Blueitt doesn't get a lot of national attention but is extremely reliable, while youthful Quentin Goodin has wowed in taking over the reigns of the offense. Valuable guard J.P. Macura, who has long been Xavier's sixth man, has also been thrust into a larger role and the sharpshooter has impressed. Yet, I worry about the Musketeers' lack of frontcourt help, because so many teams in this Tournament are good at dumping it down low. 'Zona should utilize Markkanen and center Chase Comanche plenty down there and if they can slow Xavier's hot shooting they should have no trouble taking down the last Big East team in the field.

Bracket Analysis: South Region

Joel Berry III, North Carolina

After coming agonizingly close to a National Title a season ago, the North Carolina Tar Heels are back on the one-seed line and motivated to finish the job this time around. The Tar Heels don't have two key leaders on their run last March, as dominant forward Brice Johnson and steady point guard Marcus Paige have both moved on. Even so, UNC is still extremely dangerous, being led by a new cast of playmakers. Joel Berry III has taken over Paige's role as floor leader of the Tar Heels, averaging 14.8 PPG and 3.7 APG. Yet, Berry has struggled at times with foul trouble (his absence in the second half against Duke was a contributor to their ACC semifinals loss) and will have to play smart in order for UNC to once more be a factor. A huge reason for the Tar Heels success this year has been the play of forward Justin Jackson, who has taken huge steps in his junior season. Jackson has emerged as the Heels leading scorer and continues to improve as a shooter, adding another dimension to his immensely versatile game. The frontcourt is still awfully good, with Kennedy Meeks and Isaiah Hicks leading the charge. Meeks has slimmed down significantly since he arrived in Chapel Hill, which has made him a much more dangerous player. He is a force on the glass (9.1 RPG) and has improved at the free throw line. Hicks has always been a hustle player that plays valuable defense and is a solid mid range shooter. The pair might not be able to take over games in the way Johnson did in 2016, but it could still be a major contributor to a deep tournament run. Another important player to watch is wing Theo Pinson, who has missed significant time with injury but has been playing terrific lately. He is averaging 6.2 assists per game over the past five games and adds instant offense. Overall, the group might not have the elite starpower it had last season and is in the toughest region of the bracket, but to think the Tar Heels won't be a major factor in this year's tournament would be wrong.

Last season, Middle Tennessee busted more than a few brackets when they stunned No. 2-seeded Michigan State in the first round. The Spartans were a popular National Championship pick, and it showed the Blue Raiders can beat anyone when they are playing well. Many pieces from that team still remain, including the core of forward Reggie Upshaw and guard Giddy Potts. Both were terrific in the upset last year, and are ready to show off in the big stage once more. Potts is an explosive athlete that can score anytime he touches the ball, while Upshaw is a physical presence that runs the floor as well as any big men. Add in Arkansas transfer JaCorey Williams, who has become MTSU's leading scorer, and the Blue Raiders have an extremely dangerous offense. That certainly showed itself for much of the season, as Middle Tennessee ran through an underrated Conference USA, finishing off 17-1, despite heavy resistance from quality programs like Louisiana Tech, Old Dominion and Rice. Now, the Blue Raiders have their eyes set on upsetting yet another Big Ten opponent, the fifth-seeded Minnesota Golden Gophers. Expect the Blue Raiders to match Minnesota's up-tempo offense with their own aggressive unit and Upshaw attacking Gophers' center Reggie Lynch, who is an elite-level shot-blocker but struggles with fouls. Five/twelve seeded upsets are extremely prevalent every single year and many have singled in on this one as the most likely. In fact, Middle Tennessee is actually the favorite now in this one. With their impressive talent and experience on pulling off upsets, the Blue Raiders may be the most dangerous double-digit seed in the entire field. In fact, UNC may have to be on watch of MTSU if they meet up in the Sweet 16 (which I believe they will).

There were plenty of questions about Steve Alford's future at UCLA following a deflating 2015-2016, in which they went 15-17. After reeling in an impressive recruiting class, the Bruins are back and ready to make some serious noise in the NCAA Tournament once again. Lonzo Ball has become a sensation for his fabulous athleticism and wonderful upside. He has broke the single-season Pac-12 assist record (surpassing Jason Kidd and Gary Payton to do so) already this season, and is trying to rack up even more awards by leading the Bruins deep into the tourney. With his astounding speed, and ability to run basket-to-basket, Ball is the energy behind UCLA's fast-paced, high-scoring offense. Fellow freshman T..J Leaf has also emerged as a quality contributor for the Bruins, now leading UCLA in scoring at 16.2 PPG. The forward can do so many things well; he can stretch the floor impressively (45 percent from three) and has impressive touch around the rim. Joined by underrated center Thomas Welsh, UCLA has an extremely versatile and impressive frontcourt, something many casual fans don't really appreciate about the Bruins. The coach's son, Bryce, is still a fabulous scorer and has cut down on his mistakes with more help around him this season, and swingman Isaac Hamilton does a lot of things well. All those ingredients add up 90.4 points per game for UCLA, easily the highest mark in the nation. With so many weapons, the Bruins should score plenty of points no matter what, but the question that could make the difference between an early exit and possible National Title: can they play defense? UCLA has allowed 84 or more points in all four of their losses, and they are probably going to play some fantastic offenses if they go far enough, including Kentucky and possibly North Carolina. If Alford can keep his guys to play under control and do something on the defensive side, this team has all the talent to do some serious damage.

Years ago, Wichita State burst on to the scene with a Final Four berth, and since then they have been among the most consistent mid-majors in the nation. They are back in the field once more, and ready to cause some more chaos. A poor resume in which their most impressive non-conference victory was probably sub-.500 Oklahoma left them down all the way at a 10 seed despite a 30-4 record, but that may be make the Shockers even more scary. Their long-time core of sharpshooting Ron Baker and point guard Fred Van Fleet is long gone, but the Shockers still play their same, efficient style of offense and suffocating defense. Valuable wing Markus McDuffie is a fabulous offensive weapon that can score in so many ways, and former Kansas transfer Conner Frankamp has replaced Van Fleet as Wichita's floor leader. Those two will have to do a lot, but the offense really doesn't have to be dominant, as the defense allows around 62 points a game, around 14th in the nation. Under Gregg Marshall, the Shockers have long been a defense-orientated team, and that mantra continues. McDuffie is a superb on-ball defender, while center Shaquille Morris can handle great big men in the post and helps Wichita State average 40 rebounds per game, in the top ten in the country. The Shockers will open up the tournament against fellow mid-major power, Dayton. The Flyers have long been a dangerous team under wonderful head coach Archie Miller, but have struggled over the past few weeks. With that in mind, one has to believe Wichita should be the heavy favorite in this one, and a victory could set up an interesting battle against second-seeded Kentucky, assuming they get the job done. Remember, Kentucky ended Wichita State's perfect season in 2014 en route to a run to the National Championship Game. You have to imagine Wichita is ready and motivated to get vengeance on the Wildcats and prove to the Selection Committee that they were under-seeded at a ten. The Shockers may not have that amazingly successful core of Baker and Van Fleet, but this roster still has more than enough to make a run. Even in such a brutal region, they very well may be in contention for an Elite Eight trip, if not more.

Picking the South Region
First Round
1 UNC over 16 Texas Southern... Texas Southern just won the SWAC so the season has to be considered a success, but they don't have the depth nor talent to hang with UNC over the course of a game.
9 Seton Hall over 8 Arkansas... After making a run to the SEC Championship Game, Arkansas has plenty of momentum, but the Pirates are playing great basketball and have enough weapons to get the job done.
12 Middle Tennessee over 5 Minnesota... The Gophers have been a great story, seeing the greatest single-season win improvement in Division 1 basketball. However, the Blue Raiders are too talented and dangerous offensively to lose this one.
4 Butler over 13 Winthrop... They haven't got a whole lot of national respect, but Butler beat Villanova twice this season, and are incredibly balanced. They should be able to avoid an upset here.
6 Cincinnati over 11 Kansas State... The Bearcats came out flat in an AAC Championship loss to SMU, but Mick Cronin is a great coach and should have the offense ready to go in this one.
3 UCLA over 14 Kent State... With Ball, Leaf and Alford leading the way, UCLA may just be able to eclipse 100 as they roll over Kent State.
10 Wichita State over 7 Dayton... Both of these teams are extremely tough outs always, but the Shockers are playing better right now and have the edge in experience.
2 Kentucky over 15 Northern Kentucky... With possible SEC Player of the Year Malik Monk and a speedy backcourt, Kentucky should have no problems with the Horizon League champs.

Second Round
1 UNC over 9 Seton Hall... Seton Hall is extremely dangerous right now, but they aren't deep enough nor have the frontcourt to stop the trio of Meeks, Hicks and Jackson.
12 Middle Tennessee over 4 Butler... This is a fabulous matchup of two teams with opposing styles. Butler should try to slow the game down and play smart, but the Blue Raiders are so good at dictating tempo to their advantage.
3 UCLA over 6 Cincinnati... With a stifling defense, Cincinnati should be able to slow down UCLA somewhat, but they don't have the offense needed to pull of an upset.
2 Kentucky over 10 Wichita State... They might not have the future NBA stars like Kentucky, but the Shockers should be ready to win in a close one here. Unfortunately, Monk, De'Aaron Fox and company may just be too much.

Sweet 16
1 UNC over 12 Middle Tennessee... Another good matchup that should be extremely fun to watch. However, Blue Raiders just may run out of gas, ending what could be a Cinderella run.
2 Kentucky over 3 UCLA... The amount of pure talent on display in this one is pretty astounding. Should be very high-scoring, but Wildcats take this one because of the advantage on the sideline, where John Calipari is better than Steve Alford.

Elite Eight
2 Kentucky over 1 UNC... Tar Heels are very talented and experienced, but the Wildcats should be able to take advantage of a slow rotating defensive team and a team that isn't consistent from three.

South Region Champion: 2 Kentucky Wildcats

Bracket Analysis: Midwest Region

Frank Mason, Kansas

Consistency is so tough to find in today's college basketball, with superstars showing up for one season then promptly heading off to the NBA and coaches leaving for big bucks every chance they can get. Yet, Kansas has become the prime example of consistency and reliability; winning the Big 12 for the 13th straight and beating Kentucky in the non-conference to earn a No. 1 seed. The major reason for the Jayhawks' success in '16-'17 has been an experienced and skilled backcourt, spearheaded by senior Frank Mason. Mason leads KU in points and assists, and is on the short list to win National Player of the Year. He is aided by terrific shooting two-guard Devonte' Graham, who has proven he can take over games on countless occasions. The backcourt pair gives the Jayhawks a distinct advantage over everybody they play with their reliable scoring punch and playmaking ability. Superb wing Josh Jackson has improved tremendously since the start of the year and remains a source of instant offense. If his inconsistent jumper can find its form in the tournament, Kansas has enough offense to overpower the vast majority of teams in the field. However, there is one thing that seriously concerns me with the Jayhawks roster, and that is the depth of the frontcourt. Veteran Landen Lucas has proven he can make plays, but Carlton Bragg has been suspended twice this season and his status going forward is always a question. Add in the loss of true freshman Udoka Azubuike, who was lost for the season due to injury, and Kansas is very thin up front. Their backcourt should be able to overcome that issue for at least a few games, but deep in the tournament against great teams it is something that could really be a problem for KU. Even so, the Jayhawks have the experience and playmakers needed to survive an interesting Midwest Region and make plenty of noise.

After going on a fabulous run to win the Big 12 Tournament (that was certainly helped by TCU's upset of Kansas, and K-State's win over Baylor), Iowa State enters the NCAA Tournament with significant momentum. Pairing that with late-season victories over both Kansas and Baylor, the Cyclones could be extremely dangerous as a five seed, especially if they get to the Sweet 16, because they know they can beat the Jayhawks. Veteran point guard Monte Morris is as good as anybody in the nation, and the driving force behind an ISU offense that averages over 80 points per game. Morris is not just a dangerous shooter, but a premier passer, with 6.1 assists on the year. He is helped by some other weapons in the backcourt, including former Marquette transfer Deonte Burton and sharpshooting wing Matt Thomas. Burton had some struggles early on but has adjusted to his role on the Cyclones' roster, as an athletic, attacking guard. He is helped by Thomas, one of the best three-point shooters in the Big 12, averaging 44 percent from downtown. Thomas' shooting is so big because it stretches the defense and opens things up for the plethora of guards Iowa State has at their disposal. Yet, much like Kansas, what worries me about the Cyclones is their lack of much frontcourt playmakers. They desperately miss powerful Jameel McKay and long-time star Georges Niang, who gave the group so much versatility. That lack of much frontcourt depth could be a serious problem with where Iowa State is situated on the bracket. They open up against Nevada, a scary 12 seed that won both the Mountain West regular season and postseason titles. If they can manage a victory, possible meetings with Purdue/Vermont loom, both teams that can pound it down low.

Purdue may have won the Big Ten regular season title and has National POY candidate Caleb "Biggie" Swanigan, but the Boilermakers are in for an awfully tough opening game against America East Conference Champ Vermont. The Catamounts are scorching hot right now, as they have not lost since late December, when they lost by 12 to Butler. They were 8-5 at that point, but enter the tournament at an astounding 29-5. Some can attribute it to the fact their schedule has softened significantly, but there is no denying how great of team basketball Vermont is playing right now. Much like some of the other hot mid-major teams in this year's field, they aren't doing it with flash or high-flying offense. It is their superb defense that is leading the charge, as Vermont is allowing just 61.6 PPG, 11th in the nation. They have the versatility and communication needed to be a dominant defensive team, and they will be creative with how they contain Swanigan, who can be an absolute nightmare if not defended properly. Offensively, the Catamounts share the ball extremely well, and there isn't one go-to star, which can be looked at as a positive or negative. Sophomore Ernie Duncan and forward Anthony Lamb are two of their most dangerous weapons, because of the fact they both shoot very well from the free throw line and can make things happen from deep. Another driving force for Vermont has been their poise and composure. Over the course of their now-21 game win streak if they have had a number of close games where their discipline and intelligence has led them to wins. If they can continue that in the NCAA Tournament, where so often chaos and craziness prevail, that is a huge advantage for the Catamounts.

Speaking about teams playing well at the right time, Rhode Island appears to be playing their best basketball of the season. A trendy Atlantic 10 preseason pick, the Rams struggled earlier in the year due to injuries and entered their conference tournament firmly on the bubble. Yet, Rhode Island came out and played terrific basketball to win the A-10 tourney, and their health is starting to fully return, making them quite a threat as an 11-seed. Guards E.C. Matthews and Jared Terrell are guiding forces for the Rams' offense, as both are big, physical guards that can create some serious mismatches. Also sure to make a major impact are two high-quality transfers in Stanford Robinson and Kuran Iverson. Robinson started his career off at Indiana before coming to Rhode Island and is so great at finishing around the rim. Meanwhile, Iverson was a highly touted recruit at Memphis before things fell through there and he went north. He is distantly related to Allen Iverson (they are second cousins) and you can see some of AI's flash and playmaking in Kuran. With powerful forward Hassan Martin wreaking havoc down low, Rhode Island also has the post presence they need to compete in such a balanced and deep region. The Rams are a great defensive team who excels at pressuring ball-handlers, and their first round opponent will play right into that. Creighton looked like a possible dark horse Final Four pick before they lost senior PG Maurice Watson to a torn ACL, and the offense has struggled mightily without their leader. With that in mind, Rhode Island has a very good chance at pulling off an extremely common 6-11 upset, and with their arrow pointing up, the Rams could put together their deep tournament run since 1998 when they stunned No. 1 seed Kansas and made it all the way to the Elite Eight.

Picking the Midwest Region
First Round
1 Kansas over 16 North Carolina Central (First Four Winner)... NC Central might be able to win an interesting First Four game over UC Davis but they don't have the starpower to hang with the Jayhawks.
9 Michigan State over 8 Miami... This is not quite as good of a Michigan State team as we saw the last few years, but forwards Miles Bridges and Nick Ward will still be enough to prevail against the Hurricanes.
5 Iowa State over 12 Nevada... Nevada is an extremely dangerous 12 seed from an always underrated Mountain West Conference, but they don't anybody with the playmaking ability of Monte Morris to counter ISU.
13 Vermont over 4 Purdue... Are the Boilermakers really much better than last year's edition that choked away their opener to Little Rock? I don't think so, and the Catamounts could be even better than the Trojans.
11 Rhode Island over 6 Creighton... If these two teams were completely healthy it may be a different story, but the healthier Rams should be able to get the job done.
3 Oregon over 14 Iona... Overlooking the offensively-minded Gaels would be foolish, but Oregon has enough offense of their own to overcome an upset.
7 Michigan over 10 Oklahoma State... Those assuming Michigan will roll following a Big Ten title could be surprised; OSU is near the top in the nation in offensive efficiency. Even so, the Wolverines' D.J. Wilson gives them the advantage.
2 Louisville over 15 Jacksonville State... The Cardinals might not have got the attention they deserved in the crowded ACC, but this team is legit and should have no troubles with the Gamecocks.

Second Round
1 Kansas over 9 Michigan State... This is a very tough second round obstacle for KU, but Mason and Graham should be able to take advantage of a thin MSU backcourt.
13 Vermont over 5 Iowa State... While Morris and Deonte Burton will give Vermont troubles, the Catamounts suffocating defense and poised play could help them pull off another upset.
11 Rhode Island over 3 Oregon... If fully healthy Oregon might be my pick to win the region, but without ultra-valuable Chris Boucher, the Ducks could falter to the flaming hot Rams.
2 Louisville over 7 Michigan... While the Wolverines bring out a ton of offensive weapons, Rick Pitino is a great coach, and should have a defensive strategy set up to contain Michigan.

Sweet 16
1 Kansas over 13 Vermont... The Catamounts may be able to keep close to Kansas, but the starpower of the Jayhawks will just be too much over the course of 40 minutes.
2 Louisville over 11 Rhode Island... A big day from Donovan Mitchell and the rest of a speedy Louisville offense should be enough to end Rhode Island's hopes of a Cinderella story.

Elite Eight
1 Kansas over 2 Louisville... If the Cards can attack Lucas and KU down low and force foul trouble, I think they can surprise. I also think the trio of Mason, Graham and Jackson may just be too much for them in the end.

Midwest Region Champion: 1 Kansas Jayhawks

Bracket Analysis: West Region

Zach Collins, Gonzaga

Prior to the season, Gonzaga still had questions about how they would replace stud forwards like Kyle Wiltjer and Domantas Sabonis, particularly in a West Coast Conference that looked like it would be as competitive as it had been in years. The Bulldogs answered those questions, and then some, going 32-1, winning both the WCC regular and postseason crowns and of course, locking down a top seed. Despite those accomplishments, many still believe Gonzaga is the weakest No. 1 seed, which is relatively understandable. The last time they were a one seed, they were overpowered by Wichita State in the second round, and their resume pales in comparison to some of the other top teams in the nation. Even so, I think 'Zaga still has the pieces to go on a long postseason run. Josh Perkins and Washington transfer Nigel Williams-Goss are two terrific guards that have run an extremely efficient Gonzaga offense, and are underrated shooters. Gigantic center Przemek Karnowski is a load for any defense to handle, and is surrounded by exceptional bigs like Zach Collins and Johnathan Williams. Collins is just a freshman but his touch around the rim is already at an elite level and he can stretch the floor, while Williams (a Mizzou transfer) is a wonderful athlete that is a force on the boards. That core has helped Gonzaga average 84.6 points per game in '16-'17, good enough for 13th in the nation. It is so effective because it doesn't rely on just one person, which means that one bad game won't completely spell doom for the Bulldogs, which is obviously so important in March. Another big advantage for the 'Zags is the path deep into the tournament is not extremely difficult. A winner of Northwestern/Vanderbilt is not especially scary in the second round, and I foresee plenty of upsets among the other higher seeds. Despite their long run of success atop the WCC, Gonzaga has never made a Final Four. With their veteran leadership and offensive abilities, I would not be surprised at all if this is the year that changes.

There are few stories in college basketball better than Northwestern this season. The Wildcats have long been a Big Ten cellar dweller, failing to reach the NCAA Tournament once in their expansive history. Yet, Chris Collins has transformed the 'Cats into a factor in the Big Ten, and they took advantage of a weak conference and more experience to earn their first tourney appearance ever. Now, the next goal for Northwestern is to actually win some games in it, and they face an interesting battle in their opener against ninth-seed Vanderbilt. The Commodores lost 15 games (the most by an at-large bid team in the history of the NCAA Tournament) but put together an impressive resume and ended the year playing terrific basketball. The Wildcats will need a big day from their offensive superstar Bryant McIntosh (14.4 PPG, 5.2 APG) and contributions from fellow guards Scottie Lindsey and Vic Law. Neither Lindsey nor Law are guys that will take over games, but both are good shooters and can also get to the rim and finish through contact, which will be key against a physical Vandy squad. Northwestern does their most work on the defensive side of the ball, where a motivated and well-coached "D" allows just 65.1 points per game (34th in the country). If they come in and play up to their potential, this is a team that can certainly keep their feel-good season going. Though, I always worry about rust and possibly a hangover from the excitement of simply making the field with a team like this, which makes me very cautious about the 'Cats.

If you are looking for a great dark horse team, Princeton may just be the perfect fit. The winners of the first ever Ivy League conference tournament, the Tigers are among the hottest teams in the entire nation, with 19 straight victories. That includes a flawless conference record, in which they went 14-0. That number is very impressive when considering how much better Ivy League basketball has become over just the past five years. Last season, Yale took down Baylor and has a ton of talent, while Harvard has become an extremely consistent program under head coach Tommy Amaker. Princeton is not a very flashy team, especially offensively. Senior forward Steven Cook is a superb wing that can take over from deep, while guard Devin Cannady is a quick and athletic instant source of offense. Yet, Princeton still has a very methodical and smart offense that likely will never put up 100 points but gets the job done. Defensively, the Tigers are as good as anybody, allowing just 61.6 PPG, 10th in the country. It will be interesting to see how that stifling defense fares against a Notre Dame team that has been well known as offensive-minded for awhile under Mike Brey. Overall, Princeton is a disciplined, balanced team that is riding a major wave of momentum. In a region that appears to be pretty wide open, that could just be enough to make a deep run.

Florida Gulf Coast will always go down in history for what they did in the 2013 NCAA Tournament. As a 15 seed they blew out second-seeded Georgetown, then followed it up with a second round victory, making them the first-ever 15 seed to make the Sweet 16. Years later, the Eagles are once more incredibly dangerous, this time as a 14 seed. Head coach Joe Dooley has kept the program incredibly consistent after Andy Enfeld ditched for the USC gig following that tourney run, and they have become the class of the Atlantic Sun, with another conference title this season. "Dunk City" is still definitely alive, as the Eagles feature a number of attacking wings that are explosive. Incredibly reliable Brandon Goodwin is the team's star, leading them in points and assists per game, while shooting 52 percent from the field. Fellow guard Zach Johnson is another athletic playmaker, that is incredibly disruptive on the defensive side of the ball, while big man Demetris Morant is a force to be reckoned with on the block, which will be important in a region that has some elite-caliber big men. Rayjon Tucker had a thunderous dunk that was so powerful the shot clock malfunctioned in the A-Sun Conference Championship, but could also provide a lot to FGCU as a shooter. What makes the Eagles especially dangerous is the path they can take to make some serious noise. They open the tournament against Florida State, who is a good team but has struggled as of late and has an incredibly inconsistent offense. If Florida Gulf Coast can pull an upset there, it would get the winner of Maryland-Xavier. The Musketeers haven't had the year they envisioned and just lost their star point guard, while the Terrapins appear to be a relatively weak six seed and are super young. This team may not have some of the flash of that '13 squad, but is an ideal position to wreak similar havoc if things go right.

Picking the West Region
First Round
1 Gonzaga over 16 South Dakota State... The barely-over-.500 Jackrabbits made a great run to win the Summit League, but they don't have the size or experience to pull off the major upset here.
8 Northwestern over 9 Vanderbilt... The Commodores may be hotter at the moment, but Northwestern's guards and motivation give them a serious advantage.
12 Princeton over 5 Notre Dame... With 19 wins and counting, Princeton is among the hottest teams in the entire field. If they can shut down versatile ND forward Bonzie Colson, they should get the job done.
13 Bucknell over 4 West Virginia... WVU thrives on creating pressure and turning the ball over, but Bucknell is extremely poised and a much better team down low.
6 Maryland over 11 Xavier... The Musketeers are a great March team, but are without star point guard Edmund Sumner. Maryland should use their own star PG, Melo Trimble, to get the job done.
14 Florida Gulf Coast over 3 Florida State... At one point, FSU looked like a National Championship contender but they've struggled over the past month, and FGCU has enough weapons to pull off the upset.
7 Saint Mary's over 10 VCU... While Gonzaga won the WCC handily, their conference rival, St. Mary's still looked very impressive. If the Gaels can hit the three in this one, they should win.
2 Arizona over 15 North Dakota... The Big Sky Champion North Dakota Fighting Hawks won the conference in both football and basketball. They'll need a slight miracle to overcome this Arizona team.

Second Round
1 Gonzaga over 8 Northwestern... While their backcourt may be terrific, Northwestern doesn't have the size up front to counter fabulous big men Przemek Karnowski and Zach Collins.
12 Princeton over 13 Bucknell... It is hard to imagine this game being very flashy or high-scoring. Princeton is a better shooting team, which should be enough to guide them to a Sweet 16 appearance.
6 Maryland over 14 Florida Gulf Coast... Terrapins have many flaws, but a backcourt of Trimble and true freshman Anthony Cowan should be enough to stifle the upset-minded Eagles.
2 Arizona over 7 St. Mary's... Don't overlook the dangerous Gaels here, but they won't have any answer for explosive scorer Alonzo Trier and the rest of the Wildcats lineup.

Sweet 16
1 Gonzaga over 12 Princeton... The Tigers' Cinderella journey won't last past the Sweet 16. Gonzaga is too talented and has enough size underneath to take advantage of undersized Princeton.
2 Arizona over 6 Maryland... Unless an average Maryland defense can find a way to stop Arizona's plethora of playmakers, the Pac-12 Champions should roll to another Elite Eight.

Elite Eight
2 Arizona over 1 Gonzaga... These two teams met earlier in the year, with Gonzaga coming out on top. However, Arizona is much healthier than they were then, and a much better team.

West Region Champion: 2 Arizona Wildcats

Bracket Analysis: East Region

Josh Hart, Villanova

After completing a shocking and redemptive trip to the National Championship, Villanova has followed it up with a tremendous 2016-2017. Despite the losses of program stalwarts Ryan Arcidiacono and Daniel Ochefu, the Wildcats have been just as good, with a ton of offensive weapons and plenty of experience. Senior Josh Hart has gotten even better after being a guiding piece to 'Nova's title last year, and may be one of the most consistent and reliable No. 1 scoring options in the Tournament, which puts Villanova at a distinct advantage over the rest of the field. Another huge advantage for Villanova is point guard Jalen Brunson, an efficient and smart playmaker. Brunson is just a sophomore but does so many things well, and has already played in a ton of big games. Those two are aided by a supporting cast compiled of Mikal Bridges, 2016 National Championship hero Kris Jenkins and physical forward Darryl Reynolds, all players who bring experience and maturity, which is obviously a huge factor in March. If there is one big question I have about Villanova it is their lack of depth and inside scoring. There aren't a lot of teams with a bonafide second unit, and that extends to Villanova. The thing is, I think they were even thinner last season, and that obviously didn't hurt them. Their lack of a true post presence is pretty worrying; incoming freshman Omari Spellman was supposed to be that guy, but he was ruled ineligible. They have a number of guys that can score in the paint, but they are going to face a ton of mismatches throughout the tourney, and it is going to hard to overcome that. For example, who is going to guard Ethan Happ and Nigel Hayes in the second round? What about Baylor's bigs if they get that far? What about Jayson Tatum and Duke's collection of post playmakers? That is clearly a big flaw, but I still love the makeup of this team. They have incredible balance and excellent roster diversity, which bodes well for a deep tournament run. I'm picking them to make the Final Four, and I would not be surprised at all to see them firmly in the mix for a second straight NCAA crown.

The middle of the East Region is filled with upset-minded teams, most notably UNC-Wilmington and East Tennessee State. UNC-Wilmington is especially dangerous, as they gave Duke a run for their money a season ago and are back to give Virginia problems. The Colonial Athletic Association Champion (a league that has spawned VCU and George Mason in years past, two memorable underdogs) the Seahawks have a terrific backcourt, with C.J. Bryce and Denzel Ingram leading the charge. They have an aggressive and high-scoring offense, so it will be intriguing to see how they match up against Virginia and their stifling pack-line defense. Meanwhile, the champion of the Southern Conference, East Tennessee State is going to give Florida plenty of problems in an interesting 4-13 matchup. Guard T.J. Cromer engineers an explosive offense with a variety of weapons, but the Buccaneers' defense could be the big issue. Even so, East Tennessee State has the shooting and playmakers needed to pull an upset, particularly against a Florida team that is not trending in the right direction. Both Virginia and Florida are good teams, but this is March and it seems likely at least one of those teams could fall to these upset-minded mid-majors.

There were some who thought that SMU would fall apart when a contract extension between head coach Larry Brown and the school wasn't reached, but that has certainly not been the case under new head man Tim Jankovich. Jankovich has led a fearless Mustangs team that had a wonderful second half en route to an AAC Championship. The Mustangs are led by dynamic forward Semi Ojeleye, a Duke transfer. Ojeleye is a lengthy, powerful scorer that is a tough matchup for any defender, which is going to be a major advantage for SMU throughout the tournament. Guards Sterling Brown and Shake Milton are great ball-handlers who open up the game for their offense, while forward Ben Moore is SMU's premier post presence. Offensively, SMU has enough weapons to be a scary matchup against anyone, but what could really put the team over the top is a suffocating defense. They rotate and help as good as anyone in college basketball, and have so many good on-ball defenders. An opening meeting with the winner of Providence/USC isn't too scary considering the Trojans are really struggling and the Friars are not a great offensive team. If the 'Stangs can get through the first round, possible meetings with Baylor and Duke could be on the horizon. That isn't a great side of the bracket to do much damage in, but this SMU team is incredibly gifted, and they are among the hottest teams in the nation. Brown helped return the program to prominence, but it could be Jankovich that gifts the Mustangs to their first deep NCAA Tournament run in a long time.

Marquette is not getting a whole lot of attention from a lot of people because they finished 19-12 and middle of the pack in the Big East, but this could be another team ready to make a surprising run, even if Duke awaits in Round 2. The big reason for the Eagles' return to the NCAA Tournament is a hot shooting backcourt that has a number of guys that can take over. Markus Howard is the team's leading scorer at 13.2 PPG, athletic Jajuan Johnson is a force attacking the basket, and sixth man Andrew Rowsey can be lights out at times. Add in former Indiana transfer Luke Fisher, and Marquette has a lineup that can hang with even elite-level opponents. They have proven that in 2017, beating Creighton and Villanova in consecutive games in the middle of the season. The issue with them is their lack of consistency. They can go out and beat teams like Villanova, but then follow it up with a poor loss. It is really anybody's guess who is going to be the edition coming out in their opening game against South Carolina, but head coach Steve Wojciechowski should have the team prepped and motivated for the game. If they can get hot, and everything falls into place, this team could be a very quiet dark horse out East. However, that is a big if, and any path deep into the tournament will be difficult on their side of the bracket.

After a superb run to win the ACC Tournament (which included wins over Louisville, North Carolina and Notre Dame) people are investing heavily into the Duke stock. It is understandable; the Blue Devils have been very good over the second half of the season, and when healthy, there isn't a lineup with more starpower. Luke Kennard and Grayson Allen have been Duke's go-to guys all season long, particularly Kennard whose smooth shooting stroke makes him a threat to take over games every time he touches the ball. Allen has proven he can lead Duke in the tourney (single-handedly got Duke back in the 2015 National Championship) but we all know of his questionable moves on the court and he has to keep his emotions in check or else it could be an unwanted distraction on the biggest stage. While those two have been consistently good, it has been Jayson Tatum and Frank Jackson that have really been able to elevate the Blue Devils. Tatum was one of the top players in the recruiting class and his impressive strength and polish around the rim have given the offense new tools to work with, while Jackson has really been able to control the offense and dictate games. Add in a healthy Amile Jefferson and Harry Giles, a force when 100 percent, and this lineup is truly terrifying. Yet, I caution against picking the Blue Devils to simply run through the field. They still lack a true point guard (Jackson is technically an off-guard) and simply enough ball-handlers, which is worrying when you consider the wide variety of defenses they'll most likely have to square off against. Another worry I have about Duke is their energy. They did a wonderful job winning four games in four days to win the ACC, and will get some rest, but they could still be rusty early on. Add in the fact they aren't completely impervious to major upsets (ahem, Mercer and Lehigh), and I'm still cautious about Duke's chances to run the table.

Picking the East Region
First Round
1 Villanova over 16 New Orleans (First Four winner)...  Some day a 16 seed will beat a 1 seed, but the Wildcats are too balanced and skilled to let that be the case in this one.
8 Wisconsin over 9 Virginia Tech... Buzz Williams has already gotten the Hokies back to the NCAA Tournament, but unless they can stop Wisconsin bigs Ethan Happ and Nigel Hayes, it will be short-lived.
5 Virginia over 12 UNC-Wilmington... This one might as well be a toss-up, but Virginia has a ton of experience and so few mid-majors can really effectively beat Tony Bennett's pack-line D.
13 ETSU over 4 Florida... Gators have loads of talent, but aren't a great shooting team, while ETSU is riding a major wave of momentum after winning the regular and postseason championship in the SoCon.
6 SMU over 11 Providence (First Four winner)... Providence has been a great story, returning to prominence despite the absence of superstar Kris Dunn, but SMU's length and defense puts them over the top.
3 Baylor over 14 New Mexico State... Would not be surprised at all to see consistent New Mexico State pull an upset, but the Bears aggressive Manu Lecomte keeps them from a first round loss.
7 South Carolina over 10 Marquette... Marquette is so maddeningly inconsistent it is hard for me to pick them, and the Gamecocks feature a dangerous backcourt.
2 Duke over 15 Troy... Troy played terrific basketball en route to a Sun Belt crown, but they won't have an answer for the amazing collection of playmakers Duke has at their disposal.

Second Round
1 Villanova over 8 Wisconsin... This will be far from an easy second round meeting for 'Nova, who has to face an experienced and disciplined Badgers group. Even so, Josh Hart and Jalen Brunson can lead them to a victory.
5 Virginia over 13 ETSU... Virginia's offense is still a work in progress, but Landon Perrantes and freshman Kyle Guy will do enough to stop the Buccaneers' hopes of a Cinderella story.
6 SMU over 3 Baylor... Baylor head coach Scott Drew has been consistently out-coached in March, and the Mustangs are trending up, while Baylor has been heading in the opposite direction.
2 Duke over 7 South Carolina... South Carolina should play hard in their first Tournament bid since 2004, but some times hard work isn't enough to overcome Duke's pure talent.

Sweet 16
1 Villanova over 5 Virginia... These two teams met earlier in the year, with Villanova coming away with a win after a late field goal. It should be competitive once more, but the Wildcats are just better offensively, which should be enough.
6 SMU over 2 Duke... Maybe I'm buying too much into the AAC Champions, but the Mustangs are legit, and have enough to overpower a thin Duke frontcourt.

Elite Eight
1 Villanova over 6 SMU... Both of these teams are well-balanced and well-coached, but Wildcats have more experience deep in March in the big moments, which should be the driving force to a decisive win.

East Region Champion: 1 Villanova Wildcats