2020 Big Ten Tournament Prediction

Ayo Dosunmu, Illinois

It's been awhile since we've seen the Big Ten this balanced and competitive across the league
landscape. Three teams tied at the top of the conference standings, with Wisconsin, Maryland and Michigan State all going 14-6. Further down the league, it looks like there is a good chance 11 teams could make the 2020 NCAA Tournament and even the 12 seed, Minnesota, looks significantly better than 12 seeds of the past. What does this all mean? It's likely going to be a thrilling Big Ten Tournament in Indianapolis, with upsets and close games galore. It's going to be a tough Tournament to predict, but I decided to take my best shot at it.

First Round (Wed., March 11th)
(winner in bold)

12 Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. 13 Northwestern Wildcats
Minnesota knows they won't be going dancing this season, but the Big Ten Tournament could still have important implications for their NIT hopes, or the future of the Richard Pitino tenure. The Gophers' shooting looks to be finding its stroke, as they dropped 107 over the weekend against Nebraska. Northwestern also lacks a big man who can effectively counter Minnesota center Daniel Oturu, who is averaging 20 points per game on 56 percent shooting.

11 Indiana Hoosiers vs. 14 Nebraska Cornhuskers
It's been a brutal first season on the job for Fred Hoiberg in Lincoln, and it looks like it will mercifully come to a close on the Tournament's first day. They lack any consequential experience to hang with the Hoosiers, who also have an advantage in athleticism.

Second Round (Thurs., March 12th)

8 Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs. 9 Michigan Wolverines
The Wolverines have been incredibly streaky all year long, but seem to be playing good basketball as they look ahead towards the postseason. The big advantage I see Michigan having in this one? Rutgers doesn't have a skilled guard like Zavier Simpson, who has been through the battles and currently leads the conference in assists with nearly 8 per game.

5 Iowa Hawkeyes vs. 12 Minnesota Golden Gophers
Minnesota came up just short against the Hawkeyes the last time these two played, but that was in Minneapolis. On a neutral court, Iowa simply has too much on offense, including the likely Big Ten Player of the Year, Luka Garza. Watching Oturu and Garza battle it out will be thrilling; whoever stays out of foul trouble the longest should have the upper hand.

7 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. 10 Purdue Boilermakers
Two equally matched teams collide in this Second Round matchup. Purdue needs a victory, as they sit firmly on the bubble with a week until March Madness. I think their superior defense and slight edge on the block helps them get that much-needed win.

6 Penn State Nittany Lions vs. 11 Indiana Hoosiers
Does Indiana have a scorer of their own who can keep up with Penn State's Lamar Stevens? Stevens is a dominant isolation scorer, and I think he'll be too much for the Hoosiers. Big man Mike Watkins also gives PSU an edge on the glass.

Quarterfinals (Fri., March 13th)

1 Wisconsin Badgers vs. 9 Michigan Wolverines
The Badgers are playing great basketball at the moment, and earned the coveted double-bye. The offense has been particularly hot, and UW's plethora of options on the wing could overwhelm Michigan quickly.

4 Illinois Fighting Illini vs. 5 Iowa Hawkeyes
Tempers have flared between these two the last few matchups, and things could be especially tense considering the stage they'll be on. I really like this Illinois team; they have an explosive offense, and are spearheaded by one of the country's most underrated players in Ayo Dosunmu.

2 Michigan State Spartans vs. 10 Purdue Boilermakers
I don't see any miracle run from Purdue coming in this one. Michigan State's inside-out combination of Cassius Winston and Xavier Tillman is going to be a little bit too much, although the battle of the minds on the sidelines will be fun to watch.

3 Maryland Terrapins vs. 6 Penn State Nittany Lions
You know a team not trending in the right direction? It's Maryland, who looked like they were going to lock down the top seed in the conference prior to three losses in their last five games. They need someone to right the ship offensively, but I like the way Penn State is playing.

Semifinals (Sat., March 14th)

1 Wisconsin Badgers vs. 4 Illinois Fighting Illini
Tough matchup to pick in this one; the one team these two clashed in the regular season, Illinois won 71-70. I think the real advantage Illinois holds is on the block; while Nathan Ruevers is playing great basketball, can he really handle Kofi Cockburn over the course of 40 minutes?

2 Michigan State Spartans vs. 6 Penn State Nittany Lions
I see a number of distinct advantages for Michigan State giving them the upper hand. Point guard play and head coach ability are the most obvious, but I also think the Spartans could hold an advantage in the crowd. It's a four-hour drive from East Lansing, and MSU fans always travel well.

Championship (Sun. March 15th)

2 Michigan State Spartans vs. 4 Illinois Fighting Illini
Point guard play once again favors Michigan State, as they have the best in the league. However, I think the real key for them will be their wings; how guys like Aaron Henry and Gabe Brown play will be important against an athletic and fast-paced Fighting Illini team.

Champion: 2 Michigan State Spartans
Last year, I picked Michigan State to hold firm as the league's No. 1 seed and take home the postseason Big Ten Title. It worked out well for me, and this Spartans team looks ready to do much the same. Cassius Winston remains the league's most important player, and the leader of a deep, experienced team. They're a much better team right now than the one that lost six conference games, and I think this upcoming week in Indianapolis should prove that.

Scouting the Contenders 2020: Kansas Jayhawks

Isaiah Moss, Kansas

As March Madness slowly inches closer and closer, "Scouting the Contenders" takes a look at some of the nation's best teams in a chaotic race, scouts their strengths and weaknesses, and takes a best guess on just how far they could go in the NCAA Tournament. We continue with the nation's new No. 1 team, the Kansas Jayhawks.

Track Record

• 25-3 overall, 14-1 in the Big 12 
• In sole possession of first place in the conference
• Notable Wins: 90-84 over Dayton, 71-56 over BYU, 72-58 over Colorado, 64-61 over Baylor
• Notable Losses: 68-66 to Duke, 56-55 to Villanova, 67-55 to Baylor
• 13 consecutive victories

Scouting Report

After taking down Baylor this past weekend, 64-61, Kansas was rewarded with the No. 1 overall ranking in the latest AP Poll. With that ranking combined with their impressive resume top to bottom, the Jayhawks are likely to go into the month of March as the prohibitive NCAA Tournament favorite. It isn't a completely unique position for the KU program, but one that hasn't always been kind. While they made the Final Four in 2018 and the Elite Eight the two years prior, the Jayhawks have not hoisted the National Title since the 2008 campaign. Is this the year they finally get back on top?

Strengths: Bill Self teams are always at their best when they have a steady, level-headed point guard leading the way and a physical, dominating big man on the low block. Just look at their last two teams to play in the National Championship; the 2011-12 edition had an All-American down low in Thomas Robinson, and a veteran guard keeping things running. In 2008, the Jayhawks were led by Mario Chalmers at point guard and down low, they had a number of future NBA guys, namely Darrell Arthur. This 2019 team seems to fit the mold, with an intelligent point guard running the show in Devon Dotson, and an imposing force down low in Udoka Azubuike. Dotson in particular is a player I think is highly underrated on the national level. He really does it all for this Jayhawks team, averaging 18 points per game, 4.1 APG and 4.0 RPG, despite standing just 6'2". Is he ready for a breakout NCAA Tournament appearance, as we've seen from past veteran point guards? It wouldn't surprise me... One of the things that jumps out at you right away about this KU team is their impressive depth. Once Silvio de Sousa returns from his suspension, this is a team that could legitimately go 9-10 players deep, a luxury that not a lot of teams in modern college basketball have. And, the players coming off the bench are far from scrubs either. Sophomore David McCormack is one of the Jayhawks that tends to come off the bench, and he's proven himself as an efficient scorer underneath and shown potential as a rim runner. Swingman Christian Braun is another guy that doesn't start who has caught my attention. He was a highly touted prospect coming out of high school, and you can understand why. He can guard multiple positions at 6'6", and incredibly versatile. Braun can help down in the low post, but is also a prolific shooter, averaging 46 percent from deep on the season. Having these types of guys ready to come in and play a role is a major strength for Kansas, particularly the deeper we get in the season. In a hard fought, physical basketball game during March Madness, it might mean the difference between a win and a loss... College basketball, and particularly March Madness, is nearly impossible to predict. I mean, it is right in the name that this time of year has some unbelievable upsets, and loads of chaos. With that being said, blue bloods of the sport still tend to be the ones taking home the important hardware at the end of the day. Since 2010, the National Champions of the sport have all generally been blue blood programs who are regularly at the top of the college basketball universe, albeit with some exceptions. So, it stands to reason that such a successful program like Kansas, who hasn't won a National Championship in over a decade, is due one soon enough. Is that really a strength? I argue it is, because Bill Self is too good of a coach to only have one National Title on his resume. He has consistently fielded winning teams full of future NBA stars. At some point, Kansas is coming to bring another one back to National Title and with the cyclical nature of sports, 2020 seems like a decent bet. 

Weaknesses: One of the major concerns I have about the Kansas offense is their three-point shooting. Their numbers aren't absolutely dreadful, but they are tied for 81st nationally in three-point percentage at 35.2%. The Jayhawk offense rarely relies on using the three-point line as much as others in the collegiate ranks, but the game has changed. More and more teams are living by the three-ball, and KU has often struggled to keep up. Outside of Braun, there is not a single Jayhawk that shots the ball over a 40 percent clip who shoots the three-point shot regularly. Not even Dotson or Ochai Agbaji, their top two guards, really shot the ball well from downtown. What happens when they get to the NCAA Tournament appearance and face off against a team that leans heavily on the three? Will their offense be able to keep up over the course of 40 minutes? It's a valid question... Another valid offensive concern surrounding the Jayhawks centers on their free throw shooting. They get to the line at a solid rate, but they shoot under 70 percent as a team, a number that seems fairly low for a bonafide National Title contender. Azubuike in particular really struggles at the line, which is somewhat understandable considering the type of player he is. However, you'd like to see him shot better than 43 percent at the stripe, considering how much contact he takes in the low post. It isn't just the big men on this team that could improve in this area; Agbaji, Marcus Garrett and Braun all hover at roughly 70 percent or lower. This lack of strong shooting at the line has already impacted Kansas on the season. In their two close losses during the non-conference slate, to Duke & Villanova, they went a combined 20-36 at the stripe. That is just 56 percent, numbers that simply can't continue into March if this team wants to make a deep run... As mentioned previously, Bill Self's teams have not hoisted a National Title since 2008, and while they have made two National Championship Game appearances in that span, they've also had a bad habit of "choking" games away in March. You need only look at their 2009 or 2015 teams for confirmation that March hasn't been kind to the Jayhawks in the past. The 2009 squad was an overwhelming favorite before they were stunned by Northern Iowa, while the 2015 edition had two future Top 3 Draft picks in Andrew Wiggins & Joel Embiid, but couldn't get past a 10th-seeded Stanford in the second round. Even the teams that have gone farther in the Tournament have been susceptible to close or unfortunate losses on the big stage. Now to be fair, any college basketball program is going to have periods where they can't get it done in March, and I'm not claiming that KU is an annual "choker". However, it is fair to question whether this team has it in them to win six straight at the right time, when everybody is looking to take them down. If they hold on to the No. 1 overall seed heading into March, the pressure on them is at a different magnitude.

Bottom Line: With their current resume, Kansas is nearly a lock to cement a No. 1 seed when Selection Sunday rolls around. They've had a mixed history as top seed, but it's rare for the Jayhawks to have this amount of depth, especially in a wide-open NCAA Tournament field. Of the three teams that I've talked about in my "Scouting the Contenders", I feel the most confident about the Jayhawks but this March also looks like it will be especially chaotic. If this team is the one that will go all the way, they'll have to find a way to either overcome or fix their free throw shooting woes. 

Scouting the Contenders: San Diego State Aztecs

Malachi Flynn, San Diego State

As March Madness slowly inches closer and closer, "Scouting the Contenders" takes a look at some of the nation's best teams in a chaotic race, scouts their strengths and weaknesses, and takes a best guess on just how far they could go in the NCAA Tournament. We continue with the nation's lone undefeated remaining, the No. 4 San Diego State Aztecs.

Track Record

• 26-0 overall, 15-0 in the Mountain West Conference (lone undefeated remaining in Division I basketball)
• Notable Wins: 76-71 over BYU, 83-52 over Creighton, 83-73 over Iowa, 80-68 over Utah State
• Highest ranking since 2010-2011 season, when they advanced to the Sweet 16

Scouting Report

The San Diego State Aztecs have been one of the country's most notable surprises in 2019-20, coming out of nowhere to become the lone undefeated remaining in Division I basketball. That success has given the school their highest ranking in a decade, when some guy named Kawhi Leonard led them to the Sweet 16. The chances of them completing an undefeated season are slim, but that doesn't mean this Aztecs team doesn't have the tools to do some damage come March.

Strengths: The makeup of this particular San Diego State squad represents a reality of modern college basketball: the importance of transfers. Three massive pieces on this Aztecs team began their college careers elsewhere, including leading scorer Malachi Flynn. Flynn is a former Washington State Cougar, Yanni Wetzell is from Vanderbilt, while K.J. Feagin came over as a grad transfer from Santa Clara. This creates an interesting mismatch of pieces, but also brings a lot of experience and versatility to this SDSU team. Flynn in particular is used to playing high-level basketball in the Pac-12, and he has looked extremely comfortable running the show for head coach Brian Dutcher. It wouldn't be surprising if that experience and variety ends up being a massive asset come March Madness... I've mentioned before how important I think great defense is to NCAA Tournament runs. Of course, teams that get hot offensively are common during the month of March, but defense carries you through even on off-shooting nights. The good news for San Diego State is that they have quite a strong defense, coming in fifth nationally with 58.2 points allowed per game. They also rank Top 10 in defensive efficiency, showcasing a defense that plays great in straight up man-to-man and rotates incredibly well. It also helps that Flynn really sets the stage on the perimeter; he averages nearly two a game and can attack an offense the length of the entire court. It isn't like those numbers are boosted by completely terrible opponents, either. The Aztecs held Creighton, a Top 15 team, to just 52 and also held an explosive Iowa Hawkeye offense to 73. Nobody is going to get out of a game with SDSU without a fight for the entire 40 minutes, and I think it will be something that can carry them through the rigors of late season college basketball... Playing in the Mountain West, people are going to argue against SDSU's strength of schedule, but they have a bonafide resume. Wins against BYU, Creighton and Iowa in the non-conference are all against likely Tournament teams and inside the MWC, the Aztecs swept preseason favorite Utah State. They also have been absolutely dominating inferior foes; of their 26 wins, 23 of those have been by nine points or more. This isn't some mediocre team squeaking by against weak competition, they legitimately outplaying all competition in a very underrated conference.

Weaknesses: Even with Flynn leading the way and four players currently averaging double-digit points per game, you still wonder if the Aztecs have that guy that can completely take over when needed. Perhaps with their balance on offense, they don't quite need it, but we've seen in the past how important have an alpha (or two) is when it comes to the NCAA Tournament. That isn't to disrespect any of their top scorers, but do they have that killer mentality? Maybe that's something we will have to wait and see on... On the sideline, Brian Dutcher has already had a lengthy coaching career and spent time under Steve Fisher at Michigan during the Fab Five era. He has seen and coached plenty of successful teams, but it's also important to note that this is just his third season as head man of the Aztecs, his first head coaching job. He has been the head coach in the NCAA Tournament just once, which ended up with a heartbreaking loss to Houston. That doesn't mean he is a bad coach, and anybody who has followed his career knows this guy is an excellent basketball mind, but winning in March is just so difficult. Can he make the right adjustments during big moments, on a stage he isn't very used to? It isn't unreasonable to have some concerns there... Past NCAA Tournament success shouldn't change your perception of a current basketball team, as I mentioned in my "Scouting the Contenders" writeup of Baylor earlier this month. However, San Diego State basketball has never gone past the Sweet 16 in program history, even when they had Kawhi Leonard on their roster. When you aren't a program as accustomed to the bigger stages, it is much easier to tense up, or really feel the pressure. Now, this might just be the team to finally reach the Elite Eight and beyond, but it's always much more difficult the first time around.

Bottom Line: Assuming they're able to hold on to a No. 1 seed, San Diego State will be a popular pick to be the first top seed out of the NCAA Tournament, due to the fact they aren't as proven as other top teams, or as consistently good as Gonzaga. I think that may actually lead to the Aztecs being a little bit undervalued come Tournament time; they've proven they can beat legitimately good basketball teams and to win 26 straight at any level of Division I basketball is incredibly impressive. I'd still be interested to see what they do down the stretch in the regular season and during the MWC Tournament, but underestimate this team at your own risk. They shoot the ball well, don't turn it over and play both ends as well as anybody in the country. I really do believe a deep postseason run could be in store, but we'll see how the bracket shapes up. Right now, they're likely to be the No. 1 out East, which could set up an Elite Eight meeting likely with Duke, a chance to really show what they can do. 

Scouting the Contenders 2020: Baylor Bears

MaCio Teague, Baylor

As March Madness slowly inches closer and closer, "Scouting the Contenders" takes a look at some of the nation's best teams in a chaotic race, scouts their strengths and weaknesses, and takes a best guess on just how far they could go in the NCAA Tournament. We begin with the nation's current No. 1 team, the Baylor Bears.

Track Record

• 20-1 overall record, 9-0 in Big 12
• Notable Wins: 87-78 over Villanova, 63-58 over Arizona, 53-52 over Butler, 67-55 over Kansas
• Only loss to Washington, 67-64 (12-11 record)
• First No. 1 ranking since early 2017
• 19 consecutive victories

Scouting Report

In a season where the narrative in college basketball is that there is no National Title favorite, the Baylor Bears certainly look like they could take up the mantle. The Bears have now won 19 straight games, with their only loss on the season coming against Washington in their second game of the year. It hasn't been like they're beating up on inferior foes either; during that span, they've beat five ranked teams, including beating Kansas by 12 in Phog Allen Fieldhouse. That dominance has helped them lock down the No. 1 ranking in the country, locking down 49 first-place votes in the latest AP Poll.

Strengths: Veteran-laden teams are a rarity in the world of modern college basketball, but those that do have the experience tend to have a significant advantage over the rest. That appears to be the case in Waco, who is led by a group of players who have been in the program for a number of years. In fact, only one freshman has seen minutes at all this season for the Bears, Jackson Moffatt, who has seen a total of 10 minutes the entire season. Leading the charge for BU is sophomore Jared Butler, senior Freddie Gillespie, junior Mark Vital and junior MaCio Teague. A lot of these guys have been through the rigors of the lengthy college basketball campaign, and have played in March before. That is huge in any league, and in any region of the bracket. It has to be considered the most notable strength of this team...The other thing that really jumps out at you with Baylor is their length and size. There are no seven-footers on this roster, but at every position, they can plug in guys with size and toughness, giving them an edge on both sides of the court. It enables them to play a very physical brand of man-to-man defense. You'll notice any team that tries to attack Baylor off the dribble has to work for every inch, and they force you to run your offense far away from the hoop. There are five different players on this roster that average at least one steal per game, because they are able to use that length to get in the way of passing lanes, and create turnovers... Defense as a whole really sets the stage for the Bears. That isn't to say that their offense can't be explosive when it needs to be, but BU is at their best when their defense is playing well. Coincidentally, that defense has been superb all year, which might just be the reason they sit at 20-1. The Bears allow just 58.4 points per game, which comes in fifth nationally. It isn't like they don't see good offenses in the Big 12, but they are just so tough to score on. Their ability to push you out to the perimeter and force you to shoot the three-ball has been effective all year. College teams just aren't able to hit the three ball consistently enough to score against this team. Even if they are able to get down low, Gillespie ends up cleaning up a lot of possessions, averaging 2.3 blocks per game on the season.

Weaknesses: Nobody is going to question the great job that Scott Drew has done leading the Baylor basketball program. When he took over in the early 2000's, this program nearly got the NCAA's "death penalty", but Drew has built them into a consistent winner in the always-tough Big 12. With that being said, the NCAA Tournament hasn't been kind to the Bears under Drew. They did make two Elite Eight in a three-year span from 2010-2012, but since then, they haven't been back. That isn't to say they haven't won Tournament games, but Drew has been simply out-coached in a few of their March losses. He's proven himself as a superb recruiter and a strong developer of talent, but can he win more consistently on the sport's biggest stage? This team will tell us a lot... When compared to some of the other teams battling it out for a No. 1 seed, this Bears squad pales in comparison with how they shoot the three-ball. They aren't a terrible shooting team, but their top three scoring guards, Butler, Teague & Mitchell, all shoot below 40% from downtown. That might not be considered these guy's strengths, and others on the team are shooting the ball well, such as Devonte Bandoo, who hits on a 43 percent clip from three. Yet, it still is worrying in the world of modern college basketball when a team simply doesn't have great numbers from three. Baylor hasn't really needed to have great numbers this year, but what happens when they run into a hot shooting team come March? It's reasonable to have questions about if they're able to keep up... Simply put, you'd think the craziness of this college basketball season would catch up with the Bears at some point. That isn't a weakness for this Baylor team, and it doesn't mean that they are going to be upset early in the NCAA Tournament. However, their remaining schedule is full of trap games, beyond the already difficult matchups with West Virginia and Texas Tech. Road trips to Texas, Oklahoma and TCU will all be interesting. Losing there won't kill Baylor's season, but it could certainly knock the Bears off the one-seed line.

Bottom Line: There is no perfect team in college basketball this season, there never is. But, with an imperfect field of teams, Baylor stands near the top as one of the strongest. Their experience, depth and length are very impressive, and they have a proven resume. The fact that Baylor has only been to the Final Four once in their entire history makes me a little bit wary of locking them in to make a deep Tournament run, but history shouldn't disqualify a great team from going deep. I feel much more confident about this Bears squad than most of the rest currently sitting on the 1-2 seed lines. I think that an Elite Eight trip at the very least seems like a reasonable expectation, if they can continue this current play.

5 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Teams for March Madness 2020

Geo Baker & Rutgers

With college football now officially in the rear-view, the next college sporting event? None other than March Madness. If you haven't been following college basketball so far this season, one thing you should know: this has been the year of upsets, and this March is sure to be crazier than ever. With that in mind, I break down five teams who could cause the most chaos come NCAA Tournament time. Not all of these teams are even guaranteed a spot in the Big Dance, but they're worth keeping a close eye on as we inch closer and closer to Tournament time.

Liberty Flames (19-3 overall, 5-2 conference)
Conference: Atlantic Sun
Last NCAA Tournament Appearance: 2019
Projected Seed: 11-14
Although two consecutive losses have hurt Liberty's chances of playing in the Big Dance, this is still an incredibly dangerous mid-major. The Flames defeated Mississippi State as a 12-seed in the Tournament last spring, and most of that team returned this season, including guard Georgie Pacheco-Ortiz and forward Scottie James. This isn't going to be a team that wins on their offense, but instead on their defense, the second best in the entire country, allowing just 51.5 points per game. They play physical defense on the wings, and they don't allow anything down low. They'll still have to figure some things out over the next month and a half to return to the postseason, but this program has established itself as one of the stronger in the mid-major ranks. They also just so happen to play in a conference known for producing Cinderella stories, the Atlantic Sun.

Vermont Catamounts (15-6 overall, 5-1 conference)
Conference: America East
Last NCAA Tournament Appearance: 2019
Projected Seed: 12-13
Speaking of top mid-major programs, one only has to go to Burlington, Vermont, to see an extremely dangerous UVM program. Since 2010, the Catamounts have played in the NCAA Tournament four times, including 2019, when they battled fourth-seeded Florida State for the entire forty minutes. They'll be an incredibly tough out for anybody they see this year, assuming they can hold off teams like Albany, Hartford and Stony Brook in the America East. This is another really quality defensive team with veteran experience, two of the most common components of Cinderella teams. However, they can still score points in a hurry when necessary, thanks in large part to forward Anthony Lamb. Although Lamb's numbers have dipped down from 2018-2019, when he averaged 21.2 points per game on 51% shooting, he's still a prolific scorer that can get to the rim against any defender. If he can catch fire, the Catamounts have enough elsewhere to really overwhelm some opponents. They've been popular upset picks in the Tournament last year and in 2017 and haven't been able to deliver, but I think this is the Vermont team that's finally going to get it done.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights (15-5 overall, 6-3 conference)
Conference: Big Ten
Last NCAA Tournament Appearance: 1991
Projected Seed: 6-10
It's hard to say how much of a "dark horse" Rutgers is this year, as their play this season has been one of the great stories in college basketball. They have their best team since coming to the Big Ten, and look poised to make their first NCAA Tournament appearance since 1991. What's very impressive is how Steve Pikiell has built the program: by landing unheralded recruits and slowly developing them into the system. It's a difficult recipe in the Big Ten, but it has left this team tough, gritty and experienced. They play hard for the entire game and remind me a lot of last year's Texas Tech team. They might not have a Jarrett Culver on this team, but Geo Baker is a stud when healthy, and Ron Harper Jr. has looked like he can be a leading man. Depending on what happens over the next half of the conference schedule, the Scarlet Knights could have a massive seed range. They have a brutal schedule to finish up the regular season in late February and March, but I think that should be a good thing for this team. It will give them the experience and fortitude they will need to succeed in the Big Dance.

Memphis Tigers (14-5 overall, 3-3 conference)
Conference: American Athletic
Last NCAA Tournament Appearance: 2014
Projected Seed: 7-11
Memphis is a team on the decline right now, still fresh off a shocking 40-point loss to Tulsa. But, based on pure talent, this is the type of team that can create some real chaos. If they can get hot, with their athleticism and scoring punch, I'd watch out. Of course, this prediction would look even better if James Wiseman was still enrolled at the school, but after running into eligibility issues, he decided to prepare for the NBA Draft. Losing the extremely talented rim protector hurts the Tigers on both ends, but there has been other pieces that can pick up the slack. Another former five-star recruit, Precious Achiuwa, has emerged as a real go-to guy who can play both ends as well as anybody. Alongside him, fellow youngsters D.J. Jeffries and Lester Quinones have also stepped up, and seem to be getting more comfortable at the college level. Of course, this team's lack of experience is a significant detriment, but we have seen teams of true freshman make deep Tournament runs (2013 Kentucky, 2015 Duke come to mind). It wouldn't be crazy to see the same thing happen with this Memphis Tigers squad.

William & Mary Tribe (15-7 overall, 7-2 conference)
Conference: Colonial Athletic Association
Last NCAA Tournament Appearance: Never
Projected Seed: 13-16
William & Mary holds a distinction only three other original Division 1 basketball programs can claim: never being to the NCAA Tournament. With Northwestern reaching the Big Dance, that list now includes the Tribe, The Citadel, Army and St. Francis (New York). Obviously, that would mean William & Mary just getting to March Madness would be a fabulous story, but I get the sense this team could be ready for something more. This is a balanced group that plays both ends incredibly well, doesn't turn the ball over, has loads of experience, and a proven leading man. That leading man is senior forward Nathan Knight who averages a double-double with 20.5 PPG and 10.4 RPG (while shooting 54% from the field). Joining Knight down low is another behemoth, seven-footer Andy Van Vliet, who is a former Wisconsin transfer that can step out and hit the long ball (39 percent). It's rare in modern college basketball to lean so heavily on two massive forwards who generally do most of their work in the paint, but it works for the Tribe. There a tough matchup not only for mid-major or low-major foes, but also high-major teams that simply don't have the size. This team also earns a spot on the list coming from another conference that has had some incredible Cinderella stories. The Colonial Athletic was the home of two of my favorite March Madness teams, George Mason's Final Four team in 2006, and VCU in 2011.

Others to Keep An Eye On
Winthrop Eagles, Projected Seed: 13-16... Winthrop beat St. Mary's in the non-conference and are currently riding a 10-game winning streak. They'd be a tough opener for any seed, assuming they can clamp down the Big South.
Iowa Hawkeyes, Projected Seed: 4-8... The Hawkeyes have an explosive offense that can hit you in a lot of different ways. Luka Garza has emerged as a bonafide star down low, while Joe Weiskamp is a tough guard on the wing.
Ohio State Buckeyes, Projected Seed: 6-10... Big Ten play has been rough for Ohio State, who has limped to a 3-6 record in the league, but there non-conference play showed the ceiling this team has. They beat Villanova and Kentucky, while dominating a North Carolina team that was at full strength.
Austin Peay Governors, Projected Seed: 12-16... The Ohio Valley Conference is likely to come down to either Murray State or Austin Peay, who are both 8-0 in the league right now. I like the Governors' chances; they have an explosive offense averaging nearly 79 a game, and one of college basketball's most underrated players in Terry Taylor.
LSU Tigers, Projected Seed: 3-7... Another team that may be a loose fit for the "dark horse" label, LSU is currently 6-0 inside the SEC. However, they still haven't got much national attention. This is a tough, veteran-laden team that doesn't have the drama swirling around them and coach Will Wade that they did last year.