Tuesday, March 29, 2022

2022 Final Four Picks

Collin Gillespie, Villanova

1 Kansas Jayhawks vs. 2 Villanova Wildcats

Two of the sport's most consistent programs collide in the opening game of the Final Four, with Kansas looking to avenge their most recent losses in the series, one in the Final Four of 2018 and back in the Elite Eight of 2016. The Jayhawks took their lumps on the season, but played good enough basketball to earn a top seed and battle their way to New Orleans. It's a team that isn't loaded with the future NBA stars that are a common occurrence in Lawrence, but that of course doesn't mean the Jayhawks aren't talented. Big 12 Player of the Year Ochai Agbaji has put together a special senior season and is looking to end his illustrated KU career with a National Title. The offense runs through Agbaji; he's an elite iso scorer who's rounded out his offensive game. He's always been able to get to the rim, but his growth as a shot creator and three-point shooter has made him a scary offensive weapon. He'll command the majority of Villanova's attention, but the play of guards Remy Martin and Christian Braun has been just as important to the Jayhawks over the March run. Martin is a playmaker in every sense of the word; he'll make some maddening plays, but then respond with a string of dazzling possessions. He had an up-and-down season with the Jayhawks but has come into his own in the NCAA Tournament, winning Most Outstanding Player of the Midwest Region. Braun finished just behind Agbaji in points per game on the season and plays an important role as the team's chief floor-spacer. With that being said, Braun has become so much more, as an underrated distributor and solid defender. This Kansas team isn't as large in the frontcourt as past Bill Self teams, although David McCormack is a traditional big. I'll be curious to see what type of role McCormack plays in this game. He's had a solid year but KU doesn't exactly lean on him offensively. Self has occasionally looked to him when they need a bucket underneath, but expect Villanova to crash the paint and force the Jayhawks away from the basket in this one.

Villanova didn't win a share of the Big East Title for the first time since 2017-2018, but the Wildcats have put it together in March. However, 'Nova suffered a substantial loss in the Elite Eight when Justin Moore tore his Achilles, leaving them without one of their best players. Moore was second on the team in points per game and is an impressive rebounder for his position, robbing us of a fun battle between him and either Braun or Agbaji. Yet, I don't suspect Jay Wright to change his game plan too much in this one; expect star guard Collin Gillespie to handle the ball, 'Nova to space the court, and then attack the hoop and play downhill. This isn't as pretty of an offense as past Villanova teams have run, but Gillespie keeps things flowing and is always ready to hit a big shot. This roster, more than any other Wright-coached team, embraces position-less basketball. Everybody on this roster can play different spots on the floor and all of them will be asked to do different things. While not having Moore out there will hurt, the Wildcats will still boast Gillespie and Caleb Daniels in the backcourt, while the frontcourt is led by Eric Dixon, Jermaine Samuels, and Brandon Slater. I'm actually a huge fan of this frontline trio. They aren't the flashiest group, but play swarming defense and are efficient scorers. They don't have an overwhelming size advantage over Kansas, but I still suspect this group to get opportunities in the paint. One factor I'm watching with the absence of Moore is the lack of depth on this Villanova team. Few teams in college basketball go 9-10 guys deep anymore and even with a healthy Moore, the Wildcats only ran a 6-7 man rotation. That hasn't hurt them up to this point but this late in the Tournament against a good Kansas team, it's something to monitor.

Kansas was my runner-up pick prior to the tip-off of the NCAA Tournament and they beat several tough foes en route to a Final Four berth. There's a lot of reasons to think this might be their year. For one, Self and the program haven't won a National Title in a decade-and-a-half and they've been too consistent not to add another soon, plus it's a well-rounded group playing an injured Villanova team. But, something tells me all the people rushing to pick KU because of the Moore injury are overreacting. That's not to discount Moore, but this Wildcats team has been arguably the most impressive team of this entire Big Dance and Wright has consistently proven himself as a coach on the largest stage. This selection isn't very analytical or detail-oriented, but just the feeling I get, that 'Nova will respond to the Moore injury and be even tougher, once again knocking the Jayhawks out of the Tournament.

Villanova by five


2 Duke Blue Devils vs. 8 North Carolina Tar Heels

The Duke and North Carolina rivalry is the lifeblood of college basketball. From the legendary coaches, to the iconic players, to the passion of the fans, to the different shades of blue. As if there wasn't enough storylines and hate between the two, they now collide for the first time ever in the NCAA Tournament, with a spot in the National Championship on the line. Add to that the fact that this is Coach K's last run after an illustrious coaching career and this may go down as one of the most hyped college basketball games of all-time.

Duke is all about their trio of freshmen sensations; Paolo Banchero, Trevor Keels, and A.J. Griffin. Keels is the ball-handler and sticky defender, Griffin is the shooter, while Banchero is the do-everything forward set to be a top selection in the 2022 NBA Draft. Coach K and staff have brought in many elite groups of freshmen over the years, but this particular one plays off each other so well and has their own strengths. Of course, it does help that there is veteran leadership on this team, players who often get lost in the shuffle but are crucial contributors, as well. Big man Mark Williams is the defensive anchor who will match up against Armando Bacot in the post, while Wendell Moore and Jeremy Roach help facilitate the offense and are potent in transition. The blend of stud freshmen and veterans is vitally important; while Williams and Roach don't have NCAA Tournament experience, they've still played in enough big games to understand this moment and live up to it. In the past, some of the younger Duke teams haven't been able to perform on the biggest stage, but this team is ready and able to do it. They've felt an insane amount of pressure all season, but don't expect them to fold now. 

North Carolina had a rough regular season before turning it on at the right time. After earning an 8 seed, they blew out Marquette, survived against the reigning National Champion Baylor Bears, and then handled UCLA and "Cinderella" Saint Peter's. This is the third UNC team to reach the Final Four since 2016, but easily their most improbable. They slumped severely on numerous times during the season and are breaking in a new head coach in Hubert Davis, yet are playing tremendous basketball. It helps that Brady Manek, a former Oklahoma transfer who looks and plays similar to Larry Bird, has been absolutely unstoppable this Tournament. He's averaging 21.5 points per game despite missing a big chunk of the Baylor game and has fueled the Tar Heel offense. It's not just Manek's scoring, but his presence on the floor demands the defense's attention. With him out there, he opens up lanes for Caleb Love and R.J. Davis and usually is able to pull a bigger defender out to the perimeter with him, giving Bacot more space underneath. In addition to Manek, Love, Davis and Leaky Black all deserve a bunch of credit for their play during this run. This trio has taken a lot of criticism during their UNC careers, but they've responded when the Heels have needed them most. Love in particular has really impressed me; he had a big game against Marquette but then struggled against Baylor, turning the ball over six times. The fact that he was able to come back and drop 30 to fuel the victory against UCLA says a lot about his character. He's a real problem for a Duke team that doesn't have a guard that matches up super well against him. He's quicker than Keels and bigger than Roach, which is why he went for 22 the last time he played the Blue Devils. As important as all those pieces are, I still think Bacot is the key. He's been tremendous all season and has followed it up with a great NCAA Tournament appearance, but he hasn't played many teams with an elite defensive big like Williams. If he struggles, I'm not sure how many easy buckets UNC is going to be able to get in this game, especially with how fierce the Blue Devils can be defending the perimeter.

I've doubted UNC most of this season and into this Tournament but to their credit, they've responded with a truly impressive run. With that being said, this feels like Duke's time to me. Not because the refs are going to favor Coach K and the Blue Devils, or any other conspiracy. They're simply a better basketball team and match up pretty well against UNC, even if they lost in the two team's previous meeting. Perhaps that should provide them the extra bit of motivation they need to overcome the flaming hot Heels here.

Duke by eight

Thursday, March 24, 2022

2022 March Madness Sweet 16 Picks: East, Midwest Regions

 

Trevion Williams, Purdue

East Region

15 Saint Peter's Peacocks vs. 3 Purdue Boilermakers (Philadelphia)

Cinderella stories are a major aspect of the thrills of March Madness and they don't get much crazier than Saint Peter's. A small, private school in New Jersey, Saint Peter's shocked the college basketball world (and decimated my bracket) by shocking Kentucky in the first round, then followed it up by beating a strong Murray State in the second. The Peacocks look to add another school to their victim list as they battle Purdue, who impressed in their win over Texas last weekend. It's obviously a tough matchup for the Peacocks; not only do they have to contend with Purdue's size, but will have to find a way to keep up with Jaden Ivey, whose impressive play has continued into March. Saint Peter's does have an interesting cast of characters that haven't shied away from any opponent so far, so they won't be intimidated in Philadelphia. Junior Daryl Banks III was the leading scorer in the regular season and went for 27 against Kentucky, but others like K.C. Ndefo and Doug Edert have stepped up in a big way. Ndefo is the heart-and-soul of the team, a do-it-all forward who can score, rebound, and defend. He averages nearly three blocks per game and will be counted on to be the team's defensive anchor. Whether coach Shaheen Holloway chooses to use him as a post defender against one of the bigs, or on the perimeter against Ivey, he'll see a bunch of minutes. Edert has become a cult hero thanks to his sharpshooting and interesting look, but his role will also be vital, as he'll have to match Purdue's abundance of shooters. While the Peacocks have a lovable cast, it pales in comparison to the weapons Matt Painter will throw at them. Zach Edey and Trevion Williams are a load to handle underneath, Ivey is an unquestioned superstar, and Sasha Stefanovic's shooting can be a real difference-maker. Purdue is also an incredibly deep team, with names like Ethan Morton and Caleb Furst able to come in and make plays off the bench. With all due respect to Saint Peter's, the second units aren't even in the same stratosphere. Frankly, neither are the starting lineups, but that doesn't mean I expect the Peacocks to fold. This team is going to battle for all forty minutes, but they simply don't have the resources necessary to keep this thing rolling. 

Purdue by twelve


8 UNC Tar Heels vs. 4 UCLA Bruins (Philadelphia)

It's been a rollercoaster of a debut season for Hubert Davis at UNC, but the Heels are still alive on the Tournament's second weekend after taking down Baylor and Marquette last week. At the core of UNC's run has been veteran Brady Manek, who went for 28 against Marquette and had 26 against Baylor before being ejected for a controversial flagrant foul. Manek has not only provided the scoring punch the Heels have missed all season, his presence on the court has opened up other areas of offense for UNC and his leadership has galvanized the team. This feels like it could be a special ending to a tremendous career for the forward, who began his career at Oklahoma and played with Trae Young. In addition to Manek, Armando Bacot continues to be a force down low and Caleb Love seems to have figured it out leading the offense after an up-and-down campaign. That trio should provide UNC with enough offense to win the game, but is the Heel defense up to the task? They're facing a UCLA team with a staggering collection of scorers, from Johnny Juzang, to Tyger Campbell, to youngster Peyton Watson. Juzang has carried over his impressive play from last March, Campbell is the perfect collegiate point guard, and Watson has taken on a larger role. The big question for UCLA is all about forward Jaime Jaquez, who has been tremendous all season but has dealt with nagging ankle problems. He had an awkward-looking turned ankle in the win over Saint Mary's which has put his future into question, but rumor is that he's battling through it. Not having Jaquez at 100 percent clearly hits the Bruins, but they still have enough offensively. On the other end, Myles Johnson has become an elite rim protector for the Bruins, while veteran Cody Riley is another holdover from the Final Four team a season ago. This game should be defined in a lot of ways by the guards with how hot both teams are shooting, but I actually think the play in the paint will be the deciding factor. Neither team really runs their offense through the post, but between two evenly matched foes, the battle on the block can be the thing that puts one team over the edge. With all due respect to Bacot, Johnson and Riley are a much better defensive combo and the Bruins have more size overall. While they still have work to do to return to their second consecutive Final Four, I think they end UNC's run here, in the battle of the "blue bloods."

UCLA by five


Midwest Region

1 Kansas Jayhawks vs. 4 Providence Friars (Chicago)

All season and leading into March, much has been made about Providence and their ability to win close games. No team in college basketball this year made a living winning games by the skin of their teeth quite like the Friars, with 16 wins by single-digit margins. There seemed to be quite a bit of public opinion out there that the luck had to die at some point, especially with Providence opening the NCAA Tournament against a flaming hot South Dakota State squad. Yet, the Friars are still alive and looking to make their first Elite Eight since 1997 under coach Pete Gillen. They'll have to overcome Kansas to do it, a team that has had a strong season, but is certainly not unbeatable. Expect the Friars to spread things out and isolate Nate Watson against David McCormack in the post, with their collection of guards attacking the Jayhawks off the bounce. Watson has been Providence's most consistent offensive weapon and will have opportunities against McCormack, who has been prone to foul trouble throughout his KU career. Al Durham, Jared Bynum, and A.J. Reeves are a gritty group of guards for the Friars who do match up well against Kansas, but to pull off an upset the shooting has to arrive at some point. Bynum shoots at a fairly decent clip but doesn't pull a lot of them, which could be an issue against a Kansas team that has a plethora of shooters, led by Christian Braun. With that being said, Braun is known as a sharpshooter, but his overall offensive growth has been one of the most underrated storylines of the college basketball season. He can run rim-to-rim, finish at the rim, and his ability to create shots for himself wasn't there early in his career. Braun alone could be the difference-maker, but expect KU to also be led by explosive guard Remy Martin and Big 12 Player of the Year Ochai Agbaji. Providence is going to play a tough and physical brand of basketball; will Kansas fold, or rise up to the challenge? It's really a mystery. Past Bill Self teams have folded in March, but I think this is a different type of team. With their edge in talent, if they can match Providence and their intensity, I think they come out on top.

Kansas by six


10 Miami Hurricanes vs. 11 Iowa State Cyclones (Chicago)

Outside of Ames and Coral Gables, I don't think there were many people predicting Iowa State-Miami meeting with a trip to the Elite Eight on the line. Yet here we are, with one of the two set to move to the Midwest Regional Finals. Iowa State went 7-11 in Big 12 play but have been terrific away from the conference, including victories over LSU and Wisconsin en route to the Sweet 16. The key has been their stingy defense; they've slowed down the game and forced opponents into difficult shots. Offensively, guards Tyrese Hunter and Gabe Kalscheur pace the Cyclones, while Izaiah Brockington is looking to get back on track after a poor shooting night against the Badgers. Hunter also struggled against the Badgers, but Kalscheur is the real X-factor. When he's on, the Cyclones are a significantly more dangerous team but he's had a knack for being streaky. The Iowa State defense doesn't block a lot of shots, but they will get their hands in passing lanes, which is going to require Miami to play smarter in this one. Luckily, veteran guard Charlie Moore is one of the best floor generals anywhere in college basketball. On his third school, Moore is the type of savvy leader you want in March and he's looking to end his lengthy college basketball career in a big way. In addition to Moore, the Hurricanes feature an abundance of dynamic guards, including Isaiah Wong, Kameron McGusty, and Jordan Miller. Iowa State will have the advantage in size, but containing the 'Canes guards over forty minutes is a tall task. 

Miami by three

Wednesday, March 23, 2022

2022 March Madness Sweet 16 Picks: West, South Regions

Paolo Banchero, Duke

 

West Region

1 Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. 4 Arkansas Razorbacks (San Francisco)

After getting all they could handle from Memphis in the second round, No. 1 overall seed Gonzaga is hoping for smoother sailing as they embark on the NCAA Tournament's second weekend. They'll face off with the fourth-seeded Arkansas Razorbacks, who didn't look dominant in their two victories but still managed to fend off 13-seed Vermont and 12-seed New Mexico State. From the opening tip, expect a furious pace to this game; both these teams have excellent guards and the Bulldogs play at a blistering tempo. The Razorbacks are led by a backcourt that is highlighted by top scorer J.D. Notae, but also includes Chris Lykes, Au'Diese Toney, Stanley Umude, and Devo Davis. None are particularly elite shooters, although Umude hits about 38% from three, but they instead look for offense in transition and attacking the rim. It's a strategy that has worked well on the season, but how successful is it going to be against a Gonzaga frontline that includes Chet Holmgren? You have to think Arkansas is going to want to get Holmgren in foul trouble early and work from there, but the freshman is fairly disciplined on the defensive end for his age. The Bulldogs should be able to match the Arkansas backcourt in terms of skill, although they don't quite have the depth, unless freshmen Nolan Hickman and Hunter Sallis continue to see their roles expand. Andrew Nembhard is one of the best floor generals anywhere in the nation, and he's flanked by two capable veterans in Rasir Bolton and Julian Strawther. However, the clear advantage the Bulldogs possess over the Razorbacks? Size down low. It's not just Holmgren, but also Drew Timme and Anton Watson. Timme was the clear best player on the floor in the win against Memphis and is a matchup nightmare, while Watson and Holmgren have different skill sets but are capable complementary pieces offensively. Arkansas can counter with Jaylin Williams, who has had a breakout year on the block, but he's really the only true "big" that plays regular minutes for this team. Watching 7'3" behemoth Connor Vanover go up against Holmgren and company would have been a real treat, but Vanover hasn't played since mid-January and won't be suiting up for this one. I'm sure Eric Musselman will be creative with how he chooses to shield this potential weakness, but it's such a glaring advantage for Gonzaga it's hard to ignore. Sure, in a fast-paced game that is played the whole court and rarely in the halfcourt, Arkansas can compete. But, picking them over the 'Zags seems like unwise territory to wade into at this point.

Gonzaga by ten


2 Duke Blue Devils vs. 3 Texas Tech Red Raiders (San Francisco)

One of the best parts of March Madness is seeing two polar opposites compete on the same court. Beyond the obvious "David vs. Goliath" narratives when a top seed plays a high seed, there's often matchups behind programs that are vastly different, or play a completely different brand of basketball. Such is the case in this game between Duke and Texas Tech. On one side, you have one of college basketball's blue blood programs, led by a legendary head coach and trio of star freshmen. On the other, you have a Texas Tech program that spent years in basketball purgatory before a recent run of success, coached by a 65-year old on just his second Division I head coaching gig and a host of older players, most of whom are transfers. It's a true clash of program identities, and they also play quite different. Duke is going to want to play up-tempo and score in a hurry. They have a do-it-all low post presence in Paolo Banchero, a sharpshooter in A.J. Griffin, and Trevor Keels, who looks more like a linebacker than guard. There are supporting veterans on the team, but this is a team defined by their freshmen trio; where they go, so do the Blue Devils. When the trio is playing well, this is probably the best team in the nation. When they're not, the offense is incredibly stagnant and Duke doesn't have the pieces defensively to come out on top. Texas Tech leans heavily on an elite defense and an offense that gets the vast majority of their points at the rim. Don't expect much three-pointers to be attempted from the Red Raiders, they're looking to play downhill and attack the basket. They certainly don't have the big name stars the Blue Devils have, although Bryson Williams, Terrance Shannon Jr., and Kevin Obanor have proven to be a capable threesome. I do wonder how successful this offensive strategy is going to be against Duke. While the Blue Devils aren't a great defensive team they do have size down low and an elite shot-blocker in Mark Williams. This is not going to be a team that Tech is able to beat into submission as they've become accustomed to in the Big 12. No, I actually think this is a bad matchup for the Red Raiders, who I originally picked to come out of the West Region. They didn't look reassuring in a close win over Notre Dame and you could argue they got away with a bunch of missed foul calls. That is not going to be the case against Coach K and Duke, who should be able to match their physicality and also get to the line. I still think it should be a good one, but the Gonzaga-Duke rematch has been building for awhile and who am I to pick against it?

Duke by five


South Region

2 Villanova Wildcats vs. 11 Michigan Wolverines (San Antonio)

It's hard to consider a program like Michigan a "Cinderella," but there's no denying the team fits the billing up to this point. They barely made it into the Field of 68 before upsetting a rock-solid Colorado State team, then toppling a Final Four favorite in Tennessee. They're hoping to keep on rolling against two-seed Villanova in a rematch of the 2018 National Championship Game. While past Jay Wright-coached Villanova teams have become known for eloquent, fun-to-watch offenses, this group doesn't quite fit. It's a slow-paced offense that is engineered mainly by lead guard Collin Gillespie backing down defenders and dishing out or getting the ball to the rim. It's been effective, there's not much denying, but this Wildcat team isn't going to be mistaken for some of the past diverse and versatile teams Wright has led. Gillespie will keep things churning, but it's always a mystery who will step up alongside him. Caleb Daniels and Justin Moore have been the most consistent offensive weapons, but keep an eye on Brandon Slater, who has been awfully quiet in the Tournament so far but has the skill set to cause the Michigan defense some headaches. The Wolverines have been able to win two games thanks in large part to the play of Eli Brooks and Hunter Dickinson, but also improved play from youngsters like Caleb Houstan and Frankie Collins. Collins is going to be a fascinating watch; he had a tremendous showing against Colorado State but will see his role diminished now that DeVante' Jones is fully healthy. Even so, I think Michigan is going to need someone to pick up the pace and provide some energy to this offense, whether it's off the bench or not. He can do that, and this Michigan offense is going to need it. While they've been shooting much better over the last several weeks than most of the season, it's still not a great offensive team. Dickinson can only do so much on the block and Brooks has a versatile game, but the Wolverines are still going to need more help from their supporting cast against a strong Villanova defense. You've got to believe that alone, along with Gillespie's presence, makes 'Nova the smarter pick here. Yet, something tells me Michigan's run is not over just yet. The question on this team has never been talent, but whether it can all come together right. It seems to be gelling together at the right time and while Villanova is a good basketball team, they're definitely beatable. I like Juwan Howard and the Wolverines to keep it going and reach their second straight Elite Eight.

Michigan by three


1 Arizona Wildcats vs. 5 Houston Cougars (San Antonio)

Much like Gonzaga, Arizona got all they could handle from TCU in the second round and now face a perilous test in the Sweet 16. The Wildcats deserve credit for holding off the Horned Frogs no matter what you think about the potential missed call in the closing seconds, but Houston is quite the test. Kelvin Sampson's team went to the Final Four just last year and followed it up with another season of AAC superiority. In order to move on to the Elite Eight, Arizona will once again need magic from Pac-12 Player of the Year Bennedict Mathurin. Mathurin is a slippery scorer whose mix of athleticism and shooting touch makes him a real pain for defenders. He's a tough matchup, even for a Houston team with a lot of capable defenders in their backcourt. In addition to Mathurin, Arizona features an imposing big on the block in Christian Koloko, a talented swingman in Azuolas Tubelis, and a tremendous shooter in Kerr Kriisa. Koloko had a big game in the second round and has been improving each every game, but the X-factor is Kriisa. He suffered a grotesque-looking sprained ankle in the Pac-12 Tournament and hasn't been 100 percent since. He played fine in the win over TCU, but the Wildcats really need his leadership, ball handling, and shooting if they want to continue on their run. As for Houston, the Cougars deserve a bunch of credit for advancing to the second weekend despite losing arguably their two best players, Tramon Mark and Marcus Sasser. Former Texas Tech transfer Kyler Edwards has stepped up in a huge way, as has Jamal Shead, who went for 18 in the win over Illinois. The Cougars have the size to counter Arizona with Fabian White and Josh Carlton underneath, and they play a tough, hard-nosed brand of basketball that's tough even if you're prepared for it. With all that being said, I think this is where Houston's run comes to an end. They deserve all the credit for getting a good Illinois team undermanned, but that was their first NCAA Tournament win against a single-digit seed in four decades (they didn't beat one on their Final Four run last spring). Doing that two games in a row, against an Arizona team that should be well-prepped and ready for a fight, is too much for the Cougars.

Arizona by six

Wednesday, March 16, 2022

Bracket Analysis: South Region

 

Bennedict Mathurin, Arizona

The Top Seed: Arizona Wildcats

Arizona has long been one of college basketball's powers on the West Coast, but it was clear they needed a change of pace under Sean Miller, as the program had slipped to mediocre in an underwhelming Pac-12. Enter long-time Gonzaga assistant Tommy Lloyd, who has come on and made a splash, guiding the Wildcats to a No. 1 seed and Pac-12 crown. Does this team have the ingredients to make Arizona's first Final Four appearance in two decades? Bennedict Mathurin is one of the funnest players to watch anywhere in college basketball and an explosive scorer, and he's helped by a supporting cast that includes Azuolas Tubelis, Kerr Kriisa, and Christian Koloko. Lloyd also brought big Oumar Ballo with him from Gonzaga, an elite rim protector who averages over three blocks per 40 minutes. There's more than enough weapons for this offense to put up points, but it's important to note that Kriisa, the team's top passer and probably their best shooter, is banged up. He sprained his ankle on the run to the Pac-12 Championship Game and his status for the Big Dance is a major question mark. With all due respect to backup Justin Kier, the offense takes a significant step back without Kriisa. Even so, the Wildcats still have a nice potential route to the Final Four, even though the two and three seeds, Villanova and Tennessee, are no slouches. I'm not a fan of either Seton Hall or TCU pulling an upset in the second round and both Houston and Illinois are on upset watch below them. Arizona should roll into the second weekend even if Kriisa isn't 100 percent, and they're well-coached and balanced enough to win the entire region.


The Cinderella Possibility: Chattanooga Mocs

Frankly, the Selection Committee's decision to match Illinois up against Loyola-Chicago in last season's NCAA Tournament completely screwed the Illini. How did they return the favor this year? By matching them up against a serious "Cinderella" threat in Southern Conference Champion Chattanooga. The Mocs won the Southern Championship Game on a buzzer beater against Furman, but this is no team of luck. They have legit power conference-level talent in this lineup, spearheaded by high-scoring guard Malachi Smith and big Silvio De Sousa. Smith averaged 20.1 points per game on the year and is the type of fearless lead guard that can have a breakthrough March Madness performance. De Sousa, on the other hand, began his career at Kansas but has proven to be a valuable low-post presence for the Mocs. I'm fascinated to watch him match up against Kofi Cockburn in the first round; these are two gigantic big men with excellent touch around the rim. You really hope that it doesn't become a whistle show and decided by who gets in foul trouble first. If Chattanooga can find a way to overcome the Illini, they match up well with either Houston or UAB in Round Two, opening the door for them to roll into the second weekend.


Don't Forget About: Michigan Wolverines

Michigan entered the season as a Top 10 team and a Big Ten frontrunner, but Juwan Howard's club struggled through a frustrating season. The highly touted freshmen took awhile to acclimate, DeVante' Jones wasn't quite the high impact transfer we thought he would be, and the veteran leadership wasn't quite what hoped. The result was a 17-14 record that included more than a few puzzling losses, but the Wolverines were still able to do just enough down the stretch in Big Ten play to earn a Tournament bid. While you can make the argument they should have been playing in a "First Four" and not Indiana, Michigan earned the 11 spot and goes up against a Colorado State program making their first appearance in a decade. With all due respect to a quality Rams team, the Wolverines are the much more talented team, even with Jones slated to miss the game. In fact, you could make an argument UM might be even more dangerous with Jones on the bench, as freshman Frankie Collins has shown flashes all season and has the potential to have a real coming out party. Even though they've been maddening all season, I like Michigan's chances to advance past Round One and once there, you never know. This has been a program that has routinely proven they can conjure up some March luck and with Howard back on the floor, it could be the motivator they need to finally put things all together.


The Storyline Team: Tennessee Volunteers

It's not often you hear significant uproar when a team receives a three seed instead of a two. Most of that feedback is reserved for NCAA Tournament snubs or the No. 1 seed discussion, but there was an audible gasp from the college basketball community when they saw the SEC Tournament Champion Tennessee Volunteers get a three next to their name. It's understandable why there is confusion about their seeding; the Vols were a fringe Top 10 team prior to the SEC Tournament and then went on an impressive run to secure the SEC Title, including beating a current No. 2, Kentucky, in the Championship. They should have been a two, yes, but now that they've been relegated to the three line, it's up to them to prove the Selection Committee wrong. I think they have a chance to do so; they have an explosive backcourt all with varying strengths, the type of group you want to make a run. They have experience throughout their roster, an efficient frontcourt, and a superb head coach in Rick Barnes. If there is one thing standing in their way, it's their own history. Neither Tennessee nor Barnes has had much recent March success to point to, which always makes you a bit wary this time of year. With that being said, remember how the same thing was said about Villanova through much of the early to mid-2010s? Jay Wright's program responded by winning a pair of National Titles in a three-year span. Why can't Tennessee do the same?


Welcome to the Dance!: Longwood Lancers

It's always a great story learning about some of these smaller schools getting the opportunity to shine on college basketball's biggest stage. Every year, there are one or two programs that typically get their first shot in the Big Dance. This year there are two in the same region in Bryant and Longwood, albeit Bryant lost in the "First Four" at the time of publishing. Longwood is still alive and looking for a shot to take down the three-seeded Tennessee Volunteers. The Lancers have appeared in several NCAA Tournaments at lower divisions, but are eager to show their stuff for the first time in Division I. Obviously, they're a long shot to do any damage this March, but this team isn't a complete nobody either. They went 15-1 in Big South play and beat a respectable Winthrop team by 21 in the Championship Game. Perhaps their NCAA Tournament trip may not be so short after all.


Picking the South

First Round

1 Arizona over 16 Wright State ... Wright State got their first NCAA Tournament win of all-time when they beat Bryant in the "First Four." They won't be getting another one this year.

9 TCU over 8 Seton Hall ... Two fairly evenly matched teams in my mind, but Jamie Dixon is one of my favorite coaches in college basketball, helping get the Frogs over the top.

12 UAB over 5 Houston ... Kelvin Sampson's team won't be returning to the Final Four this season, they get caught by Andy Kennedy and his star, Jordan "Jelly" Walker.

4 Illinois over 13 Chattanooga ... The Mocs do have a chance to make a run if they get past the Illini, but I'm not just sure they have enough scoring to hang with Cockburn, Andre Curbelo, and Trent Frazier.

11 Michigan over 6 Colorado State ... Niko Medved has a legitimate Sweet 16 contender in Colorado State, but Frankie Collins provides the spark UM needs to win.

3 Tennessee over 14 Longwood ... Longwood guard Justin Hill is vastly underrated, the team's top scorer and an excellent distributor. But him alone won't be able to get the Lancers past Barnes and Tennessee.

10 Loyola-Chicago over 7 Ohio State ... People seem to be undervaluing an Ohio State team that has a regular Top 25 team until a cold recent stretch, but this Ramblers team is just so tough and well-coached.

2 Villanova over 15 Delaware ... In a battle of Northeast foes, the Blue Hens simply have no answer for Collin Gillespie and company.

Second Round

1 Arizona over 9 TCU ... TCU proved they can take down top dogs by shocking Kansas earlier this season, but they're no match for Bennedict Mathurin and the 'Cats.

4 Illinois over 12 UAB ... Can the Blazers go on a Cinderella run? Perhaps, but I think Brad Underwood secures his first Sweet 16 trip with the Illini.

3 Tennessee over 11 Michigan ... The Wolverines aren't your typical 11-seed, but the Volunteers keep their hot streak alive here.

2 Villanova over 10 Loyola-Chicago ... A potential hazard spot for Villanova, but they win in what should be a low-scoring affair.

Sweet 16

1 Arizona over 4 Illinois ... Arizona beat Illinois earlier in the season and while the Illini will be scheming for vengeance, I like the Wildcats to keep on rolling.

3 Tennessee over 2 Villanova ... Villanova has one elite guard in Gillespie, but Tennessee's abundance of weapons helps them secure the victory.

Elite Eight

3 Tennessee over 1 Arizona ... Am I buying too much into the Tennessee hype? Possibly, but this team has legit Final Four talent and they match up well against the higher seeds in the South Region.


South Region Champs: 3 Tennessee Volunteers

Tuesday, March 15, 2022

2022 March Madness Bracket Analysis: East Region

Johnny Juzang, UCLA


The Top Seed: Baylor Bears

With several key pieces, namely Davion Mitchell and Jared Butler, off to the NBA over the offseason, many people expected a significant step back for the defending National Champion Baylor Bears. Instead, head coach Scott Drew continues to work his magic in Waco, winning 26 games and earning a share of the Big 12 Title. Certainly, it's difficult to compare this year's group to last year's, but there is a lot to like. James Akinjo, Adam Flagler, and Kendall Brown lead a dynamic backcourt and up do-it-all Matthew Mayer remains one of the most under-appreciated players in college basketball. With that being said, this Baylor team is without two key cogs who have played important roles the last few years: L.J. Cryer and Jonathan Tchamwa-Tchatchou. Tchamwa-Tchatchou tore his ACL and is done for the year, but Cryer's status is one of the greatest mysteries in this entire NCAA Tournament. He's been out for the past six weeks, but there still is a chance he returns. If he does, the Bears get back their top scorer, who is also a deadeye shooter from three. Tchamwa-Tchatchou is a huge loss; if there is a glaring weakness on this Baylor team, it's their lack of depth in the frontcourt. While Flo Thamba and Jeremy Sochan have stepped up in a big way, this is a team that could realistically be bullied by several teams in this region. They should still roll past MEAC Champ Norfolk State in Round One and the 8/9 matchup with either UNC or Marquette is also favorable, but things get tricky after that. Drew has proven he can work some magic and Akinjo, Flagler, and Mayer have proven they can handle the load, but it's hard to imagine this team making another Final Four run with so many injury questions.


Don't Forget About: UCLA Bruins

After a heartbreaking loss to Gonzaga in last season's Final Four, UCLA was a popular preseason National Title selection. They returned nearly everyone from last year's group and also added in a pair of big-name pieces in Rutgers transfer Myles Johnson and highly-touted freshman Peyton Watson. While it's hard to call any team that earned a Top 4 seed a disappointment, the Bruins haven't been able to quite reach those expectations. UCLA has won several big games over Villanova, Marquette, and Arizona, but have also looked flat in some maddening losses to mediocre Pac-12 foes. Those losses have left the Bruins somewhat underrated as they return to the NCAA Tournament. People seem to forget how many offensive weapons are on this roster; Johnny Juzang was one of the stars of last March and is a fearless shotmaker, Jaime Jaquez is a load to handle, Tyger Campbell is the pace-setter at point guard, and Jules Bernard can take over games when needed. The Bruins haven't shot the ball as well as expected this season, but they aren't going to be an easy out against anyone and last year's run proved without a doubt that this group can make a deep run. Even at the four spot, I think UCLA has as good of a chance as anyone to make it out of this region and return to the Final Four.


The Cinderella Possibility: Virginia Tech Hokies

It's difficult to categorize any team from a power conference as a true "Cinderella" but as an 11-seed who needed a run in the ACC Tournament to secure an automatic qualifier, Virginia Tech still fits the billing. Mike Young's team was fairly average for most of the season, going 19-12 overall and 11-9 in the ACC, but they reeled off four straight and beat Duke to secure the bid from the ACC. It's been a complete 180 for the team; they're playing with a bunch of confidence and an offense that was 205th nationally in points per game has suddenly become flaming hot. Forwards Keve Aluma and do-it-all Justyn Mutts remain a fearsome force on the Virginia Tech frontline, but it's been Hunter Catoor's hot shooting that has fueled the Hokie renaissance. Catoor went off for 31 points against Duke in the ACC Championship Game and paired with another sharpshooter in Storm Murphy, VT could be an incredibly tough out for any team they face. I think they have a fairly good shot at reaching the second weekend; Texas has been playing better over the season's second half, but Chris Beard's team is beatable. A potential meeting with Purdue in the second round is also winnable; while Zach Edey and Trevion Williams will be a difficult matchup down low, Matt Painter's program has some March demons to figure out before I pick them on a deep run. 


The Scrappy Underdog: Murray State Racers

As they embark on their 18th NCAA Tournament appearance, it's becoming more and more difficult to call Murray State an underdog. But, as a seven-seed with a potential second round date against Kentucky on the horizon, they'll operate as one. The thing is, Matt McMahon's team could be a very scary team in the bottom-half of this region, as they didn't lose a single game in the Ohio Valley this year and play both ends. They're a scrappy defensive team that has a knack for getting in passing lanes and on offense, Tevin Brown and K.J. Williams offer a potent 1-2 scoring combo. Add in guard Justice Hill, an excellent distributor and decent shooter, and the Racers will put up points. They open against a San Francisco program that hasn't been to the Big Dance in decades, but they shouldn't overlook the Dons. San Francisco has some high-scoring guards and coach Todd Golden is the type of guy who could become a household coaching name in March. I still like the Racers to move onto the Round of 32 and perhaps provide John Calipari and Kentucky a stressful game on the Tournament's first weekend.


The Storyline Team: Kentucky Wildcats

There's little denying Kentucky basketball remains one of the most recognizable and well-known brands in collegiate athletics. However, not since Anthony Davis was dominating opponents has Kentucky lifted a National Title, with the drought now over a decade. At some point, Calipari is going to bring another National Title to Lexington. He's way too good of a coach and has had way too much elite talent pass through this program not to do it. Plus, I think this year's group has a really good shot, particularly considering they play in an East Region where the top seed has so many questions. This Wildcats team checks a lot of boxes of a championship contender. They have elite lead guards (TyTy Washington, Sahvir Wheeler), shooting (Kellan Grady, Davion Mintz), the probable National Player of the Year (Oscar Tshiebwe) and significant depth. This is not your typical Cal-coached "one-and-done" team that might buckle under the pressure of the NCAA Tournament. Grady, Wheeler, Mintz, Tshiebwe, and Jacob Toppin are all transfers from other programs, with most of that group already earning past March Madness experience. I just feel like the timing is right for Calipari to win another one and while this isn't his most talented team he's ever had, I think it's built in a way to do so. I'm slightly hesitant as of late only because the national media seems to be jumping on the Kentucky bandwagon, but they're my National Title pick this year.


Picking the East

First Round

1 Baylor over 16 Norfolk State ... In 2012, Kyle O'Quinn and Norfolk State shocked Missouri as a 15 seed. They won't do it this year as a 16, Baylor rolls on.

8 UNC over 9 Marquette ... This is essentially a coin flip for me. North Carolina has been frustrating all year, but their improved play down the stretch has me going Tar Heels.

5 Saint Mary's over 12 Indiana (projected First Four winner) ... The Gaels are deep, experienced, and well-coached. They make Mike Woodson's first NCAA Tournament run short-lived.

4 UCLA over 13 Akron ... The Zips should put up a valiant fight, but there's just too many weapons on this UCLA roster to think they bow out in the first round this year.

6 Texas over 11 Virginia Tech ... I know I list Virginia Tech as the Region's "Cinderella" possibility, but Texas has too many scoring options and I trust Chris Beard in March.

3 Purdue over 14 Yale ... Even after last year's shocking loss to North Texas, I don't see Purdue losing in the first round again. Jaden Ivey guides them past the Ivy League Champion Yale Bulldogs.

7 Murray State over 10 San Francisco ... Dons are certainly not an easy first round matchup for the Racers, but this Murray State team is too good to lose in the first round.

2 Kentucky over 15 Saint Peter's ... Saint Peter's took advantage of Iona's shocking loss to earn the MAAC's auto bid, but it will be short-lived, as they fall to UK.

Second Round

1 Baylor over 8 UNC ... Definitely not a breeze of a second round game for Baylor, but their edge at the guard spots helps them overcome the Heels.

4 UCLA over 5 Saint Mary's ... Should be a fun, back-and-forth game between these two California schools, but Juzang and Jaquez are too much for the Gaels.

3 Purdue over 6 Texas ... A potential upset spot here with all the scorers Texas can throw at you, but Matt Painter's team is just too well constructed to head home before the second weekend.

2 Kentucky over 7 Murray State ... The Wildcats are in for a fight whether it's Murray State or San Francisco in the second round, but Oscar Tshiebwe is too much for the Racers to contain.

Sweet 16

4 UCLA over 1 Baylor ... UCLA has been frustratingly inconsistent all season, but I'm still a believer in Mick Cronin and the Bruins. They take down a Baylor team who I would probably have winning the Region if they were at full strength.

2 Kentucky over 3 Purdue ... So much future NBA talent on display in this game, but Kentucky just has too many weapons for the Boilermakers.

Elite Eight

2 Kentucky over 4 UCLA ... A fun clash between two of the sport's blue bloods, the Wildcats are deep enough to come out on top in a slugfest.


East Region Champ: 2 Kentucky Wildcats

Monday, March 14, 2022

2022 March Madness Bracket Analysis: West Region

 

Chet Holmgren, Gonzaga

The Top Seed: Gonzaga Bulldogs

For the second straight year, Gonzaga comfortably earned the top overall seed in the Tournament, following a season in which they went 26-3 and won yet another West Coast Conference Title. Is this the Gonzaga team that can finally reach the mountain top and bring home the first National Title to Spokane? They have a lot of the ingredients to do so; the backcourt has three experienced guards who can all handle the scoring load, spearheaded by one of the most efficient players in college basketball in Andrew Nembhard. The Bulldogs posses not one, but two, elite big men who can handle the ball and score in a variety of ways in Drew Timme and Chet Holmgren. Then, there's the overall experience and motivation factor, as the Bulldogs came so agonizingly close to a perfect season a year ago before coming up short against Baylor in the National Championship. There's a lot to like, but the road is not an easy one. Of the three teams Gonzaga lost to this year two of them, Duke and Alabama, are in the region. Duke in particular is a concerning potential foe, as they hope to send Coach K off with a grand exit. Even before then, potential dates with a flaming hot Memphis team, or Arkansas or UConn in the Sweet 16 could be danger spots. This is unquestionably a strong Gonzaga team that was deserving of the top seed, but I think it's clearly a couple steps below last year's group. That doesn't mean they can't win a National Title, but the margin for error is even thinner.


The Cinderella Possibility: Vermont Catamounts

Vermont has become somewhat of a March staple at this point, as they play in their third Big Dance in six years. The first two trips under head man John Becker were short-lived, both first round defeats, but I have a feeling this Vermont squad could be different. For one, they're playing truly incredible basketball, with just one loss since a defeat at the hands of Providence in early December. They're fresh off a dominant showing in the America East Championship Game, as they pummeled UMBC by 39 points. Just as important, it's a balanced roster that plays both ends. They don't play crazy up-tempo but have an effective roster that shoots well from both the free throw line and three-point, and they play strong team defense. There isn't a superstar leading the team like past Catamount teams that were led by UVM great Anthony Lamb, but forward Ryan Davis and guard Ben Shungu are more than capable of leading this team on a run. The Catamounts open up with fourth-seeded Arkansas, an interesting matchup between two teams that play different styles. The Razorbacks seem to have the edge in the backcourt and will try to push the pace, but Vermont has the edge in the paint. I firmly expect UVM to try and muck this one up and play a more contained, slower form of basketball, which could be what they need to do to beat Eric Musselman and the Razorbacks. If they can pull off the upset, it sets up an intriguing matchup with the winner of UConn/New Mexico State with a trip to the second weekend on the line.


Don't Forget About: Texas Tech Red Raiders

Chris Beard may be coaching in Austin now, but Texas Tech still plays with a similar grit and toughness under new head man Mark Adams. The Red Raiders don't have a leading star like Jarrett Culver or Mac McClung on this team, but it's a well-rounded team that is going to be a tough out for anyone. The scoring load will mainly be handled by Terrance Shannon Jr. and Bryson Williams, but teams will also have to contend with Kevin Obanor and Kevin McCullar. Obanor played a leading role on the Oral Roberts team that shocked Ohio State a year ago and played in the Sweet 16, and he's having a strong season with Tech. There's also a pair of interesting guards in Adonis Arms and Davion Warren, who are both extremely fun to watch. Arms is on his third collegiate team and can play above the rim, while Warren is an elite defender who is a tough cover for defenders with his mix of size (6'6") and quickness. Overall, it plays a lot like the Beard-coached teams who went down regularly in March; there's size, toughness, versatility and an attitude that this team plays with, they might not win but they'll have you a hell of a fight for every second of the 40-minute contest. Montana State is not an easy opening game, as the Big Sky Champs are a tough basketball team, but the Red Raiders should win and I think they match up favorably with whoever they face in the next round, whether it's Alabama, Rutgers or Notre Dame. In fact, I think this is the type of team nobody wants to play in this region and I wouldn't be surprised if they toppled one, or both, of the two seeds ahead of them in the region. I'm such a big fan of this team and the way Adams has carried them on following Beard's departure I'm picking them, not Duke or Gonzaga, to come out of the West Region.


Don't Forget About: Davidson Wildcats

A decade-and-a-half ago, Steph Curry introduced the world to Davidson basketball with his magical play leading the Wildcats to an Elite Eight. The program has changed quite a bit since then, but don't be surprised if another sharpshooting Davidson guard catches the world by storm this March: South Korean transplant Hyunjung Lee. The 6'7" junior has an incredibly smooth stroke and is one of the best I've ever seen at moving without the basketball; he's shooting 38% from three despite shooting them at a very high rate, averaging over six attempts per game. He is likely to be the one to fuel a potential Davidson run, but he's far from the only Wildcat that can hurt you. Foster Loyer, who just so happens to be playing the team where he began his career in Michigan State, is averaging over 16 PPG, and forward Luka Brajkovic is a load to handle in the post. Those three, plus guard Michael Jones, form a fearsome foursome that should give any opponent troubles, even if the depth isn't quite there. I like Davidson's chances to beat Michigan State in the first round, which could then set up a fun second round duel with Duke, their fellow in-state foes.


The Storyline Team: Duke Blue Devils

If you haven't already heard a million times by now, this will be Coach K's final time leading the Duke Blue Devils in March. It's obviously the conclusion of a successful and iconic era in Duke hoops and college basketball in general, and you know that Coach K wants to add one more Title to his trophy case before moving on. He certainly has a team with the potential to do so, with a No. 1 pick possibility leading the charge in Paolo Banchero. Fellow freshman A.J. Griffin provides the much-needed shooting touch, while the "veterans" on the team, Wendell Moore, Mark Williams, and Jeremy Roach, are looking for some level of redemption after last year's disappointment. The offense has the firepower to put up points in a hurry, with a Top 10 offense nationally. My question is whether the defense is good enough to carry the Blue Devils on a long Tournament run. Williams is a tremendous rim protector, but the rest of the defense has been inconsistent all season and could face some dangerous offenses along the way. Additionally, I do have serious questions about Duke's lack of depth. Sure, a lot of teams only run 7-8 man rotations in modern college basketball, but what happens if a few of the starters, such as Williams or Banchero, get in foul trouble? I think this team is certainly good enough to win a few games and play past the Tournament's second weekend, but National Title good? I'm just not sure the ingredients are in place to send off K with a bang.


Picking the West

First Round

1 Gonzaga over 16 Georgia State ... The Sun Belt Champs have gone on a tremendous run just to get to the Big Dance, but I fear it will be short-lived as they run into the buzzsaw that is Gonzaga.

9 Memphis over 8 Boise State ... Don't assume this will be a breeze for a suddenly hot Memphis squad, but the Tigers just have so many weapons and are fully healthy.

5 UConn over 12 New Mexico State ... Upset-minded New Mexico State is always a scary 12-seed, but they have no answer for UConn big Adama Sanogo down low.

13 Vermont over 4 Arkansas ... Vermont has been a popular dark horse NCAA Tournament pick, but haven't been able to do serious damage just yet. I think this is the team to change that.

6 Alabama over 11 Rutgers ... This should be a very fun game with all the backcourt talent on display, but the Crimson Tide are simply a better team top-to-bottom than Rutgers.

3 Texas Tech over 14 Montana State ... The Bobcats went 27-7 en route to a Big Sky Title, but they don't have the necessary offense to take down Texas Tech.

10 Davidson over 7 Michigan State ... Hyunjung Lee and the sharpshooting Davidson Wildcats are too much for a Michigan State team that hasn't been playing great basketball these last few months.

2 Duke over 15 Cal State Fullerton ... Coach K and Duke have lost to 15 seeds before, but I just think this group has too much talent to fall to Cal State Fullerton.

Second Round

1 Gonzaga over 9 Memphis ... A lot of future NBA talent on the floor, even with Emoni Bates no longer with the Memphis program, but the Tigers aren't deep enough to compete with Gonzaga for 40 minutes.

5 UConn over 13 Vermont ... Should be a fun battle of New England foes, but this UConn team is disciplined and well-coached, they should be able to come out on top.

3 Texas Tech over 6 Alabama ... A battle of differing strengths. Alabama will play fast with their collection of guards, while Texas Tech wants to slow you down and battle for every inch. The Red Raiders come out victorious in a classic SEC-Big 12 duel.

2 Duke over 10 Davidson ... This could be a really scary second round matchup for Duke, but Paolo, A.J. Griffin, and Trevor Keels help them advance to the second weekend.

Sweet 16

1 Gonzaga over 5 UConn ... Two great basketball teams that should provide plenty of offensive fireworks, but I like the 'Zags to keep on rolling.

3 Texas Tech over 2 Duke ... The Red Raiders don't have the flash or future NBA picks like the Blue Devils, but they play a brand of basketball that should complicate things for Duke.

Elite Eight

3 Texas Tech over 1 Gonzaga ... Not picking Duke or Gonzaga in the West may be bold, but I think both of those teams have fatal flaws and something tells me Tech will be an incredibly tough out.


West Region Champ: 3 Texas Tech Red Raiders

Tuesday, March 8, 2022

NFL Mock Draft 2022: Edition 2 (Combine Edition)

Ikem Ekwonu, NC State to NY Jets

 1. Jacksonville Jaguars

Evan Neal, OT, Alabama

Evan Neal seems to be trending as the favorite for the No. 1 overall pick at this point in the draft process. Neal's a freak of nature who stands at 6'7" and weighs in at over 350 pounds, but his athleticism and footwork are elite. He was somewhat streaky at times in Tuscaloosa, but offers significant upside at a need position for a Jacksonville team looking to upgrade their protection for Trevor Lawrence.

2. Detroit Lions

Aidan Hutchinson, DE, Michigan

I still think there's a fair chance Aidan Hutchinson is Jacksonville's selection at No. 1 but if not, Detroit would have an easy selection staying inside the state to land the former Michigan Wolverine. Hutchinson's poor showing in the Playoff Semifinal loss to Georgia overshadowed what was otherwise a dominant 2021 in which the edge rusher was invited to New York as a Heisman Finalist.

3. Houston Texans

Kayvon Thibodeaux, DE, Oregon

There's a lot of different directions Houston can go with this pick, including O-Line, pass rusher, and defensive back. Evan Neal would be a no-brainer if he lasts this long, but the Texans instead go best player available with Oregon's Kayvon Thibodeaux. Thibodeaux has shocking physical tools and put together a strong 2021 despite battling through injuries. He seems to have more bust potential than Hutchinson, but might have higher upside in the long-term.

4. New York Jets

Ikem Ekwonu, OL, NC State

A strong Combine showing likely cemented Ikem Ekwonu as a Top 5 selection in this Draft. The NC State product is a superb athlete for his size and can play at multiple spots along the line of scrimmage. He'd be a smart pick for a New York team that, much like Jacksonville with Lawrence, is looking to protect their franchise signal-caller, Zach Wilson.

5. New York Giants

Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State

The run on offensive linemen continues, as the Giants address their pass protection woes by adding Charles Cross out of Mississippi State. Even before hitting the off-season, the offensive line was a position group of need for the G-Men and the recent release of Nate Solder opens up an opportunity for Cross to come in and start right away.

6. Carolina Panthers

Kenny Pickett, QB, Pittsburgh

This is a fascinating draft spot for Carolina, who has obvious needs at offensive line and quarterback. They'd love if any of the top three were still available at this point but with the trio all gone, they turn instead to Kenny Pickett. For some reason, Pickett's hand size was a hot topic of discussion at the Combine this past week, but it shouldn't move the needle too much. He's the safest quarterback prospect of this Class and could come in and start right away for Matt Rhule.

7. New York Giants

Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame

Kyle Hamilton is another player who has helped himself out with a good showing at the Combine, which is likely to lock him in somewhere in the Top 10. The Giants could contemplate picking him up at five but it would be even better to wait and pick him up two spots later. Hamilton's versatility and range make him an ideal fit in the modern NFL, and New York could use him in a wide variety of ways.

8. Atlanta Falcons

Ahmad Gardner, CB, Cincinnati

Derek Stingley Jr. and Ahmad "Sauce" Gardner are widely considered the top two corners in this Draft, but in my mind, Gardner is the much safer pick. He was the definition of shutdown while at Cincinnati, not allowing a single touchdown pass in his collegiate career. He's a tremendous pickup for a Falcons team looking to upgrade their secondary.

9. Seattle Seahawks

David Ojabo, DE, Michigan

The Russell Wilson trade shook up the Top 10, with Seattle rising to the No. 9 selection after dealing away their franchise quarterback. One might think that means they'll take a quarterback here, but I'm not so sure. With all the uncertainty around the position, I think they may still go defense, as the group was atrocious in 2021. David Ojabo had a breakout fall and has the physical gifts to be a powerful edge rusher for years to come.

10. New York Jets

Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State

It's been a long time since the Jets had a truly dynamic target on the perimeter and the position should be a top priority for the front office. With their pick of receivers available here, I think the Jets go with Garrett Wilson, a potential game-changing deep threat who would pair well with Wilson's huge arm. If not for Chris Olave and Jaxon Smith-Njigba stealing targets away, I think Wilson would have been the runaway Biletnikoff Award winner.

11. Washington Commanders

Malik Willis, QB, Liberty

After an illustrious college career with Liberty, Malik Willis has only helped himself with impressive performances in the Senior Bowl and Combine. He's a fascinating prospect, a big-armed QB with elite rushing ability, but his mechanics and decision-making need refinement. Washington absolutely needs a new start at QB and Willis has the playmaking to come in and make an immediate impact, much like what RG3 did over a decade ago.

12. Minnesota Vikings

Derek Stingley Jr., CB, LSU

What was once a position of strength for Minnesota has deteriorated into a real conundrum for the new front office and coaching staff. Jeff Gladney is long gone, Bashaud Breeland was atrocious, and Patrick Peterson doesn't have much left in the tank. The Vikings are hopeful Derek Stingley Jr. can regain his 2019 form, when he was a dominant true freshman corner, after two frustrating seasons in Baton Rouge.

13. Cleveland Browns

Drake London, WR, USC

Cleveland has an obvious need at receiver, as Odell Beckham Jr. was traded to the Rams and Jarvis Landry could be on the move soon. They would love if Wilson were to fall to them at 13, but Drake London is quite the consolation prize. He's a big-bodied, physical wide out who was putting together a truly special season on a terrible USC team prior to a season-ending injury.

14. Baltimore Ravens

Travon Walker, DL, Georgia

Baltimore's pass rush is going through a transition, as Justin Houston and Calais Campbell both hit free agency and could be heading elsewhere. There's young talent here, but the Ravens could still look to add another edge rusher in Travon Walker out of Georgia. Walker was overshadowed at times with all the other elite talent the Bulldogs had in their front seven, but a strong Combine vaulted him into a Top 15 selection.

15. Philadelphia Eagles

George Karlaftis, DE, Purdue

George Karlaftis is widely considered one of the top pass rushers in this Draft and a potential Top 10 selection, but he could slide demanding on team needs and preferences. A potential slide for him would be a win for Philadelphia, who could use another pass rusher off the edge. 

16. Philadelphia Eagles

Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas

Despite investing plenty of draft capital and money into the wide receiver position, Philadelphia is still very weak at the position. They're hoping DeVonta Smith can continue to develop, but another first-round selection at wide out may be in the cards. Treylon Burks was incredibly productive at Arkansas despite playing in a run-heavy offense and would pair nicely with Smith on the perimeter.

17. Los Angeles Chargers

Jordan Davis, DT, Georgia

The Charger defense was poor throughout 2021, but they were particularly susceptible against the run. They'll look to address that early on in this Draft and luckily for them, Jordan Davis is ripe for the taking at 17. Davis had a dominant campaign with the National Champion Georgia Bulldogs and he's followed that up with an impressive pre-Draft process.

18. New Orleans Saints

Desmond Ridder, QB, Cincinnati

You would've liked to see New Orleans be more proactive in addressing their long-term QB situation when it became clear Drew Brees was nearing the end but here they are, diving into the off-season without an answer at the game's most important position. Perhaps Malik Willis could drop to them, but Desmond Ridder or Matt Corral are the more likely options. Ridder improved every single year while in the college ranks and is one of the safer QB prospects of this Class.

19. Philadelphia Eagles

Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington

Philadelphia addresses another need position by adding Trent McDuffie out of Washington. He brings much needed youth to an aging secondary and continues a long line of former Huskies who have made the transition from Seattle to the NFL.

20. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matt Corral, QB, Ole Miss

With "Big Ben" finally retired and without a clear replacement plan in place, Pittsburgh chooses a quarterback on the first night of the Draft. They could trade up to land one, but Matt Corral offers plenty of upside at pick 20. He's got dazzling arm talent and a fearless attitude, but will need to polish off parts of his game to be worthy of a first-round selection.

21. New England Patriots

Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State

Mac Jones had an impressive rookie season in New England, but the Patriots could still look to upgrade their mediocre receiver corps. Chris Olave would be an excellent addition in the mid to late first round; the former Buckeye is a proven entity with crisp route running skills and reliable hands. He's the type of ready-made, polished receiver you would love to pair with a young QB.

22. Las Vegas Raiders

Devin Lloyd, LB, Utah

Devin Lloyd is too good of a prospect to slide much further down draft boards, as the Utah product is an intelligent, well-rounded linebacker who has the production in college worthy of a first-round selection. He would immediately fit in at a need position and give new defensive coordinator Patrick Graham a nice welcoming gift.

23. Arizona Cardinals

Tyler Linderbaum, OL, Iowa

Tyler Linderbaum is probably a Top 10-15 prospect in this Class but based on the position he plays, it's unlikely he lands super high. That would be good news for Arizona, who wants to upgrade their interior offensive line and show Kyler Murray they're committed to protecting him. Linderbaum might not be the most exciting pick, but anybody who watched him dominate in college knows what he can bring to the table.

24. Dallas Cowboys

Jermaine Johnson II, DE/LB, Florida State

While Dallas has one of the game's most exciting young defenders in Micah Parsons, the rest of the front seven has question marks. Carlos Watkins and Randy Gregory are both set to hit the open market, and Demarcus Lawrence also may not be back. The Cowboys decide to invest in a young pass rusher here in Jermaine Johnson II, who spent time in the JUCO ranks and with Georgia before an impressive 2021 in Tallahassee.

25. Buffalo Bills

Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama

Buffalo is pretty clearly a Super Bowl contender, but they're just a piece or two away from really getting over the top. The receiver position may be the spot GM Brandon Beane chooses to upgrade, as Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders are aging and both replaceable. A torn ACL in the National Championship Game loss threatens to drop Jameson Williams outside the first, but the Biletnikoff Award finalist is too good to pass up.

26. Tennessee Titans

Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa

The Titans may choose to upgrade their receiver corps with Julio Jones nearing the end and A.J. Brown hitting free agency next off-season, but with many of the big names off the board, they instead focus on their O-Line. The unit was decent in 2021, but Taylor Lewan is getting older and may not be worth the money. They invest in his replacement, Trevor Penning out of Northern Iowa, who has had a tremendous pre-Draft process.

27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Kenyon Green, OL, Texas A&M

As newsworthy as the Tom Brady retirement was in Tampa, guard Ali Marpet's decision to call it a career may have just as large of an impact. The Bucs will miss the Pro-Bowler, but they could find his immediate replacement in the form of Kenyon Green. Green, a former high-profile recruit, can play either guard or tackle if needed and is a proven run blocker.

28. Green Bay Packers

George Pickens, WR, Georgia

The Aaron Rodgers saga appears to be on hold, with the reigning MVP signing a massive contract extension. Even so, it's about time the Packers invested in their receiver corps, which has been regularly underwhelming beyond Davante Adams. Enter George Pickens, a big, physical receiver who showed he is back to 100 percent with a strong Combine performance.

29. Miami Dolphins

Nakobe Dean, LB, Georgia

Miami could go any number of different directions here, or perhaps even trade the selection to a team looking to trade up to the back-end of the first round and get a quarterback. With so much uncertainty, best player available seems like a fair approach, and Nakobe Dean is too good to let get out of the first round. On a team full of future NFL defenders, Dean shone as the real heart-and-soul of this defense.

30. Kansas City Chiefs

Devonte Wyatt, DL, Georgia

The run on Georgia Bulldogs continues, with Devonte Wyatt the next former Bulldog defender to be plucked off the board. Wyatt was often overshadowed by Jordan Davis and all the attention he got, but he's a skilled pass rusher who could play either on the interior or off the edge. He is well worth a late first-round flier for the Chiefs here.

31. Cincinnati Bengals 

Bernhard Raimann, OL, Central Michigan

Anybody who watched Cincinnati's Super Bowl run this year knows how big of a concern the offensive line is. Joe Burrow is obviously great, but the Bengals can't remain in contention if he's being picked up from the dirt every play. Enter Bernhard Raimann, a truly fascinating prospect who comes from Central Michigan. The native Austrian is a former tight end who made the move to O-Line and has NFL scouts drooling with interest.

32. Detroit Lions

Roger McCreary, CB, Auburn

Quarterback seems like a possibility here considering Jared Goff's uncertain future, but I wouldn't be surprised if Detroit holds off on that spot a bit longer. Instead, they look to fix their issues in the secondary by adding Roger McCreary, who was quietly one of college football's best defenders in 2021. There's still a chance Jeff Okudah figures it out but if not, McCreary could become the long-term top corner.

Wednesday, March 2, 2022

2022 March Madness Primer

Ochai Agbaji, Kansas

With February in the rearview, we enter one of the most exciting times of the year for college sports fans: March. There's still plenty of good basketball to watch over the coming few weeks, but all eyes are on the impending NCAA Tournament. In that spirit, I've decided to unveil my 2022 March Madness primer, taking into account everything you should be following before Selection Sunday on March 13. From the battle for the No. 1 seeds, to bubble teams and potential Cinderellas, this is the place to start your NCAA Tournament research.


The Basics

Considering the 2020 NCAA Tournament was cancelled and the 2021 edition was a shell of the usual event, the 2022 Big Dance will be the first "normal" iteration of the event in three years! What does that mean? Here are a few things to consider:

  • All 32 Division I college basketball conferences will be represented at the event in 2022. That was not the case last year, as the Ivy League did not play a season at all due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. This means that there will once again be 36 at-large spots open for non-automatic qualifiers.
  • The Tournament will expand beyond the state of Indiana, after the 2021 NCAA Tournament was held entirely in the Hoosier State. The "First Four" will once again be held in Dayton, while other first and second round venues include: Buffalo, Cincinnati, Fort Worth, Portland, Greenville, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh, and San Diego.
  • Expect the stands to be full and raucous this year, after the event was limited to 25% capacity in 2021. The return of fans will add an interesting and much-needed element to the Tournament this year after a weirdly quiet '21.
  • The 2022 NCAA Tournament will wrap up in New Orleans with the Final Four games on April 2nd and 4th. This will be the sixth time the City of New Orleans hosts the event, the first time since 2012. The winner that year? Anthony Davis and the Kentucky Wildcats toppled Kansas.

The No. 1 Seed Battle
With just four No. 1 seeds to play for, it should be a fascinating race down the stretch. There's not any team that is a lock for a top seed right now and as many as 7-8 that seem to have a very realistic shot at rising to the one seed line. Here are the most likely contenders:
  • Gonzaga Bulldogs: Gonzaga is the betting favorite to be the top overall seed for the second consecutive year. This team isn't as dominant as last season's squad, but they're still the nation's current No. 1 with a 23-3 overall record and 12-1 mark in the West Coast Conference. The Bulldogs have been aided by a strong non-conference resume that includes wins over Texas, UCLA, Texas Tech, and Saint Mary's. They've also been helped by the fact that the WCC is the strongest it's been in years, with as many as 4-5 teams in serious contention for a trip to the Big Dance. The loss this past weekend to Saint Mary's showed Gonzaga still has some kinks to work out over the next few weeks, but they're in a good spot.
  • Auburn Tigers: Bruce Pearl's team spent a few weeks perched at the No. 1 ranking and they remain in play for the top overall seed. After an early-season loss to UConn, Auburn ripped off 19 straight wins before falling to Arkansas. They've shown some cracks in the foundation with losses to Tennessee and Florida over the last few games, but if they can hold to the SEC Title, they're in prime position to be a top seed.
  • Arizona Wildcats: One of the best stories in college basketball this year, Arizona has a legit chance to be a No. 1 seed in head coach Tommy Lloyd's debut season. They're 25-3, have essentially already clinched the Pac-12 regular season title, and beat Michigan and Illinois in the non-conference. There's still work to be done, but Lloyd appears set to deliver a No. 1 seed to Tucson for the first time since 2014.
  • Kansas Jayhawks: As the top team in possibly the nation's toughest conference, Kansas will be in contention for a No. 1 seed. Bill Self's club has a strong resume across the board and of their four losses, three have been to current Top 10 teams (Kentucky, Baylor, Texas Tech). Even the one loss that wasn't, a head-scratcher to Dayton, doesn't look as bad recently with the Flyers' improved play. With that being said, KU is lacking a signature victory that could push them into No. 1 seed territory and they're running out of opportunities to find it, plus the loss to TCU last night further complicates things. The Jayhawks could still earn top billing by earning a Big 12 Title, but the better money in the league seems to be on the team from Waco right now.
  • Baylor Bears: The reigning National Champs got a huge win this weekend over Kansas, pushing them back into the top seed discussion. Outside of a defeat to Oklahoma State, Baylor doesn't have a bad loss and they built a nice non-conference resume by beating Oregon, Michigan State, and Villanova. The Big 12 Tournament may decide who takes a top seed between Kansas and the Bears.
  • Duke Blue Devils: Duke owns one of the most important non-conference victories of the season with their win over Gonzaga, but the fact the ACC has been incredibly weak has hurt their No. 1 seed chances. With the chaos that happened over the weekend, the Blue Devils seem to be back in play and who knows, Coach K's farewell tour may be the motivator the Selection Committee needs to place them as a No. 1.
  • Big Ten Champion: Wisconsin's win this week over Purdue earned them a share of the Big Ten Title and with a strong non-conference resume, Greg Gard's team is in play for a top seed. Purdue and Illinois remain at least in the conversation, but neither have been able to string together the consistent play necessary for a No. 1 seed. However, the Big Ten Tournament could complicate things a bit, with neither the Boilermakers or Illini completely dead if enough chaos happens elsewhere.

The Bubble Teams
The NCAA Tournament bubble is always a fascinating watch this time of year, and the race this year is no less intriguing. There's a handful of teams vying for just a few at-large spots, and there's a chance those spots could be reduced even further with the potential of "bid-stealers," teams who win their conference tournaments and in turn, steal a bid. Here are a few of the bubble teams I'm keeping an eye on as the regular season draws to a close:

  • Indiana Hoosiers: Indiana looked safely in the field for a few months before a recent five-game skid threw their NCAA Tournament hopes into question. They've since recovered by beating Maryland and Minnesota, but neither victory is going to push them back into safety just yet. A battle against another bubble team, Rutgers, looms before the Purdue rivalry game to conclude the regular season. 
  • Memphis Tigers: Penny Hardaway's Memphis Tigers have been one of the most frustrating teams all season, but as winners of eight of their last nine, they're in play for the Big Dance. They have two great wins, over Houston and Alabama, that could propel them over the rest of the pack, but a pair of bad losses, to Ole Miss and Georgia. With one more game against Houston remaining on the schedule, with it being at home, the Tigers are in decent position to break through and reach the NCAA Tournament.
  • San Francisco Dons: San Francisco hasn't made an NCAA Tournament appearance since 1998, but this year's team could be the one to change that. They built a strong non-conference resume, but the WCC has been difficult this year, as they sit at 10-6 in the league. It would be helpful if the Dons were able to come out with a victory against either one of the two Tournament locks in the conference, Gonzaga or Saint Mary's, but they lost all four to those two foes. Their performance in the WCC Tournament is likely to decide their fate.
  • Oregon Ducks: One of the preseason favorites in the Pac-12, Oregon had a frustrating start to the year, but Dana Altman's team is trending up at the right time. They recovered from a pair of road losses to the Arizona schools by beating UCLA, pushing them right back into the bubble. They absolutely need to sweep the Washington schools over the next week, but they're another team that will be have to impress in their respective conference tournament to secure a bid.
  • Wake Forest Demon Deacons: Steve Forbes has done a great job with this Wake Forest team, but the Demon Deacons are trending in the opposite direction of where they'd like to be going. They've lost three of five, and while defeats to Miami and Duke are understandable, the Clemson loss stings. This is a team that lacks the resume of others trying to battle in; outside of Notre Dame and potentially UNC, they don't own a single win against a projected NCAA Tournament team.
  • BYU Cougars: A resounding win over then-No. 12 Oregon early in the season seemed to indicate BYU was going to be a challenger to Gonzaga in the WCC, but they haven't quite fulfilled those early expectations. They're 21-9 overall and 9-6 in the league as they embark on the conference tournament, finding themselves right on the bubble. A bad loss to Pacific is holding them back particularly, but they're also lacking much signature wins. If San Diego State and Oregon can both sneak into the field (they're both firmly on the bubble), that would help BYU quite a bit, but they're simply might not be enough spots for that to happen.

Dark Horse Teams
"Cinderella" stories are part of what makes March Madness so great. But, the whole reason they're "Cinderella" stories is because they come out of nowhere to shock the college basketball landscape. That makes them difficult to predict, especially when you don't even have a cemented bracket. Even so, these are the low and mid-major teams to keep an eye on over the coming weeks.

  • Toledo Rockets (Projected Seed: 13-14): The MAC has quietly became a very respectable mid-major league, and the Toledo Rockets are the favorite to be the conference's automatic qualifier. This team has a high-scoring offense, rebounds the ball well, and shoots a decent percentage from both the stripe and three. They played Michigan State fairly tough earlier in the season and could follow in the footsteps of fellow MAC schools Ohio and Buffalo by winning a game or two in the Big Dance.
  • Iona Gaels (Projected Seed: 12-13): Iona is going to be a popular upset pick this year, for a few reasons. For one, they are 24-5 overall, 16-2 in the MAAC, and beat Alabama in the non-conference. More importantly, they have a legendary coach on the sideline, Rick Pitino, who would love to sink a major-conference school in the first round. This is likely to be Iona's 16th NCAA Tournament team, but they have only won one game in program history, providing a nice dose of motivation.
  • North Texas Mean Green (Projected Seed: 13-14): Grant McCasland's team pulled off a notable upset last spring when they took down fourth-seeded Purdue, and his Mean Green will be dangerous once again. After a shaky start to the year, this team has reeled off 14 straight victories and is in the driver's seat in the Conference USA. As one of the best defensive teams anywhere in college basketball, UNT is going to be an absolute headache for some team in the first round, assuming they lock down a Tournament bid.
  • Colgate Raiders (Projected Seed: 14-16): Colgate is looking to make their third consecutive NCAA Tournament and remains in the driver's seat in the Patriot League. The Raiders have been up-and-down most of the year; they got a big win against Syracuse in the non-conference, but also suffered several head-scratching losses. They've recovered by going on a long win streak of their own and remain a potent offense that shares the ball as well as anybody in the nation. Big Keegan Records isn't going to drop 30 a game in the NCAA Tournament, but is the type of versatile, efficient big that could help fuel a run.
  • Princeton Tigers (Projected Seed: 13-15): Ivy League teams are always dangerous teams when it comes to March and they'll be back with a vengeance after not participating in the event in 2021. Princeton is the favorite to be the league's representative, and the Tigers could be sneaky. Head coach Mitch Henderson always has teams that play fast and love to score, but this team is better shooting than past editions. With three players who average at least 15 points per game, the Tigers have the balanced scoring you need to go on a March run.