Current Picks Record: 51-28
Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss
Upsets: 4-7
Superdogs: 4-3
(#11) Alabama Crimson Tide @ (#15) LSU Tigers
Line: Alabama -3
O/U: 58.5
The Alabama-LSU rivalry game always has importance, but the stakes for this year are different. Both teams are firmly in the thick of the College Football Playoff but a loss from either, which would be their third, would likely knock them out of things as we stand in early November. For two programs with sky high expectations, that's simply not acceptable - meaning both have plenty to play for on Saturday night in primetime.
Jalen Milroe was considered a Heisman frontrunner over the course of the first month-and-a-half of the 2024 campaign, but he has slowed significantly during a difficult stretch for the Crimson Tide. Against Tennessee and Missouri, Milroe still put up solid numbers, but Tennessee's pressure forced him into two turnovers and he didn't throw for a touchdown against Missouri. After the bye week, this LSU game feels like a prime opportunity for him to get back on track. The Tigers have improved tremendously defensively under Blake Baker, but the secondary still remains frightfully inconsistent, and they've struggled against dual-threat quarterbacks - evidenced by Marcel Reed's big game a few weeks ago. It would help Milroe if the Tide could find some balance on the ground, as their rushing attack has been suspect over the past month behind a struggling offensive line. Ryan Williams has also slowed down significantly on the perimeter, which has forced the Tide to open their playbook and look to manufacture easier yards through the air. All of that has been frustrating, but the bye did come at the right time and if their is a head coach who should be able to figure this out, it's Kalen DeBoer. Despite the ups-and-downs for the Tide this fall, he remains one of the best offensive minds in the sport, and had plenty of time to prepare for LSU. I get the feeling Alabama is going to come out aggressive in much the same way they did against Georgia, even with this game being in Baton Rouge.
The LSU offense has relied heavily on the pass all season long but as they reach the home stretch of the regular season, they've pretty much abandoned any effort to run the ball. It's all on the shoulders of Garrett Nussmeier now and although he's been an effective quarterback, this is his first season as starter. There have been the occasional mistakes, which should be expected of an SEC quarterback, and the A&M game provided Alabama the game tape they need to know how to slow him down. After struggling in the first half, A&M altered their coverage and mixed and matched on the back-end, forcing Nussmeier to face down defenses he hasn't seen before. The result was turnovers, with the three interceptions dooming the Tigers as A&M ran away with it in the second half. Even against an inexperienced Tide secondary, one that has struggled significantly at times, I still feel like LSU has to find some semblance of offensive balance, even if it's just enough to keep the defense honest. If not, Nussmeier is going to have some very difficult windows to throw into, with Kane Wommack having plenty of time to prepare himself. The battle in the trenches is another key X-factor - this isn't the same Alabama defensive front we came to know in the peak Saban years, but they can still get after quarterbacks. If Nussmeier is under pressure, this one becomes difficult to imagine coming out as a Tiger victory.
Both Alabama and LSU remain difficult times to get a read on as we prepare for the final month of the regular season. When they're playing well, they still look like potential National Title contenders, with high-flying, fun talent on both sides of the ball. When not, they're one-dimensional, limited teams that just don't look like what we've come to expect from these programs. We can't be sure which editions will come out on the field on Saturday, but I lean Alabama only because we know they can win in different ways and they've looked elite when they're on their "A" game. As difficult as it will be going on the road and beating LSU, the Tide feel like the slightly safer pick.
The Pick: Alabama, 38 LSU, 35
(#3) Georgia Bulldogs @ (#16) Ole Miss Rebels
Line: Georgia -2.5
O/U: 54.5
It hasn't always been pretty, but Georgia is now 7-1 and wraps up their most important stretch of the season over the next two weeks. After going to Ole Miss this weekend and welcoming Tennessee the next, the Bulldogs wrap up with UMass and Georgia Tech, which should be two more in the "W" column. In turn, if the 'Dawgs take care of business starting this weekend, they'll head into the postseason in position to earn a bye in the first round of the College Football Playoff.
I foolishly picked Ole Miss to be upset by Arkansas last weekend, and the Rebels made me eat my words, as they went for 63 points in a dominant victory that improved their record to 7-2. Jaxson Dart only continued what has been a remarkable season by breaking Archie Manning's school single-game passing record, despite the fact top receiver Tre Harris did not play. That should provide plenty of momentum as he prepares to face a hungry Georgia defense, although the status of Harris will be important to watch. The Rebels certainly have other weapons beyond him, namely Jordan Watkins and Antwane Wells, but Harris is the type of playmaker that can take the top off a defense. If he's not able to go, the job for Georgia defensive coordinator Glenn Schumann becomes much easier, as long as the Bulldogs are able to keep everything in front of them and tackle in space, which is not often a problem for Georgia-coached teams. It's important to mention Henry Parrish Jr. and his role in this Ole Miss offense, as well. Statistically, he's been just a supporting piece and his stat sheet over the last month is certainly nothing to ride home about. With that being said, he does play a key role in buttering up the defense and opening up lanes over-the-top for Dart and this passing game. That's important when you're facing a Bulldog defense like this, one that will seize on any weakness as well as anyone in the country. It will be interesting to see how the Bulldogs look on this side of the ball, too. They've taken their lumps through the air at times, which is cause for concern against a team like Ole Miss, but the Texas game showcased just how dominant they can still be up front, when they controlled the line of scrimmage against a Longhorn team with multiple future NFL offensive linemen.
It's clear the Georgia offense has missed Ladd McConkey and Brock Bowers this fall, as they've struggled to get into a consistent rhythm week-to-week. That struggle has been most clear for QB Carson Beck, who has thrown seven interceptions over Georgia's last three games. The Bulldogs have still found a way to win in each, but it's been a concerning trend for a player who entered the year as a Heisman frontrunner after a huge 2023. Perhaps this will be the week Beck is able to get on track, but it will be a difficult contest for him. Not only does he have to go on the road into a hostile environment in Oxford, the Rebel defense has a ball-hawking secondary, one that is willing to take risks to make big plays. One would assume the Bulldogs will look to their ground game for fuel, and there's good news here, as the assumption is that Trevor Etienne will be back and ready to go for this one. Etienne was knocked out of the Florida game, his former school, and hasn't been 100 percent for some time, but was not listed on the availability report earlier in the week. Between him and freshman Nate Frazier, Georgia has a strong 1-2 punch that should be able to eat up yards against an Ole Miss defense that has great athletes up front. That battle between these two should be a treat, a potential matchup that will feel a lot like the physical, grinding type games that have long defined the SEC.
Although Georgia has not been dominating opponents in the way we've come to expect under Kirby Smart, there's something to be said for this team still being 7-1 despite their struggles. This is simply a difficult team to outlast over the course of four quarters, and Kirby always has his guys up for big road games. This feels like a game where Ole Miss could jump to an early lead, but halftime adjustments from the Bulldogs will slow this one down and turn it into the type of game they regularly come out on top of.
The Pick: Georgia, 31 Ole Miss, 27
Michigan Wolverines @ (#8) Indiana Hoosiers
Line: Indiana -14.5
O/U: 49.5
I'm not sure anyone in the preseason expected to get to early November, and have an eighth-ranked Indiana be meeting up with a Michigan team trying to keep their heads above .500. But, here we are, as the Hoosiers enter the weekend as comfortable favorites against the reigning National Champions. With Ohio State awaiting in two weeks, can Indiana avoid a slip-up here against a former Big Ten East foe?
After falling behind early to Michigan State, Indiana turned on the jets and would go on to beat the upset-minded Spartans 47-10. It was the type of game that has become common for the Hoosiers this year - they may not be significantly more talented than their competition but between great coaching and superb execution, they cruise to easy victories. Great defense was the cornerstone of the win over the Spartans, as the Hoosiers held them below 200 yards, but Kurtis Rourke going for four touchdowns despite not being 100 percent made quite the difference, too. Rourke heads a balanced and consistent Indiana offense, one that isn't necessarily flashy in what they do, but is supremely productive. He's truly the perfect leader for this group, a former Ohio transfer who doesn't wow you with his physical tools, but is an accurate quarterback who takes care of the ball and puts the team in position to win. It helps that Indiana boasts a strong supporting cast around him, as Justice Ellison and Ty Son Lawton have been a valuable 1-2 combo in the backfield, and Elijah Sarratt and company have terrorized opponents on the perimeter. With that being said, Michigan's defense does offer a challenge, even if this is not the same group we saw out there in 2023. Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant can wreck the interior offensive line, and despite the fact the back-seven has been beat up, it's still not an easy group to throw for big numbers against. Indiana feels like an offense that will be able to adjust as needed, but I don't envision them going for nearly 50 points this weekend - they'll likely be just fine with this being a low-scoring football game.
We suspected there may be growing pains for Michigan offensively this fall after they said goodbye to program staples like J.J. McCarthy, Blake Corum, Roman Wilson, and more, but the fall from grace for this unit has been quite startling. Quarterback has been a well-publicized problem, a revolving door at the position that the Wolverines have struggled to figure out. Davis Warren started the year and after brief runs with Alex Orji and Jack Tuttle, Michigan is back to Warren, who should be the starter for this one. There's nothing particularly special about Warren under center - Orji at least brings some threat with his legs, but he's not a Big Ten quarterback as a passer. Warren can at least make the routine throws, but no defense is going to be afraid of this team vertically. It doesn't help that Michigan has nobody to throw to on the perimeter, with the lone exception being tight end Colston Loveland. Tyler Morris and Semaj Morgan just haven't been able to create anything and going up against a physical, disciplined secondary, it's hard to imagine this being the game they suddenly come alive. The Wolverines will of course look to their ground game to fuel this offense, but there's been disappointment there, too. Donovan Edwards has been a complete non-factor at times, as it's been Kalel Mullings leading the way in attempts, yardage, and touchdowns. Mullings can occasionally break things open, but he's operating behind an offensive line that has taken a major step backwards in 2024, and against stacked boxes - there's only so much he can do by himself.
There's still plenty of talent on this Michigan roster, it's not like it all left after the 2023 campaign. Graham, Grant, Will Johnson, and Loveland should all be high NFL Draft selections, and I firmly believe Edwards is better than what we've seen this year. But this team just doesn't work as a cohesive unit, and their flaws are so obvious, it's hard for any quality team not to draw up a gameplan that can beat them. Indiana is on a roll and it's hard to imagine a team with the weaknesses of Michigan finding a way to upset them.
The Pick: Indiana, 30 Michigan, 17
Other Picks
(#20) Colorado Buffaloes @ Texas Tech Red Raiders -- For all the bad things I've said about Deion Sanders and Colorado in recent times, it's time to be fair - they've been a great story this fall. Texas Tech is fresh off an emotional win over Iowa State, and I figure this could be a letdown spot.
The Pick: Colorado, 35 Texas Tech, 24
South Carolina Gamecocks @ Vanderbilt Commodores -- Who would have expected this would be an important SEC game this late in the year? South Carolina is fresh off a big win over Texas A&M, and I think this could be a letdown spot, too. Vanderbilt is just the type of competent, solid football team that should find a way to come out on top.
The Pick: Vanderbilt, 24 South Carolina, 21
Minnesota Golden Gophers @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights -- The Athan Kaliakmanis revenge game? The former Minnesota transfer has a chance to spoil his former team's winning streak at home, but the Scarlet Knights are beat up bad on both sides of the ball. With the Gophers playing great ball right now, they're the smarter pick.
The Pick: Minnesota, 23 Rutgers, 14
Upset: (#25) Army Black Knights @ North Texas Mean Green -- You can never be too sure with the triple-option, one way or the other, but this looks to be a tough matchup for Army. The undefeated Knights are going to get by someone and after North Texas came up just short their last two weeks, I think they finish the job here.
The Pick: North Texas, 37 Army, 27
Superdog (covers > 21 point spread): Mississippi State Bulldogs (+25) @ Tennessee Volunteers -- We are witnessing a fascinating transformation from Tennessee. They've gone from one of the nation's highest-scoring offenses in recent years, to one that is prided on tough, tenacious defense. They should win this one comfortably, but they just might not score enough to make this cover.
The Pick: Tennessee, 31 Mississippi State, 10
Lock of the Week: Memphis Tigers (-7) vs. Rice Owls -- Although the Tigers got caught last week by UTSA, this remains one of the top Group of Five teams in the nation. Meanwhile, Rice just fired head coach Mike Bloomgren, and have little to fight for down the stretch - I like the Tigers to lock this one up.
The Pick: Memphis, 35 Rice, 20
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