Friday, October 29, 2021

College Football Picks 2021: Week Nine

Kenneth Walker III, Michigan State


Current Picks Record: 49-23

Upset: 5-3

Superdogs: 6-2


(#6) Michigan Wolverines @ (#8) Michigan State Spartans

Two of the nation's biggest surprises of the 2021 season collide this Saturday, with rivals Michigan and Michigan State meeting up in East Lansing. It could very well be the biggest rivalry game between the two in recent memory and may finally help deliver some clarity to a loaded Big Ten East.

Even though Jim Harbaugh hired OC Josh Gattis prior to 2019, a decision that was supposed to open up the Wolverine offense like never before, this team still plays a similar brand of football to the ones Harbaugh has trotted out for years. They have a conservative passing attack, a powerful ground game, and physical offensive line. QB Cade McNamara has been serviceable on the year, completing 63% of his passes and only throwing one interception. However, the real strength of this offense is undoubtedly the two-headed monster in the backfield in Hassan Haskins and Blake Corum. They really are the perfect 1-2 punch; Haskins is the power one who dominates in short yardage situations, while Corum is the big-play threat, who is averaging 6.3 yards per carry. It will be interesting to see how the Michigan State defense plays these two; sure, they'll stack the box, but so have many teams on the 2021 season and Corum has still found a way to get loose. Part of that has to do with a Wolverine offensive line that has had a resurgent season after a down 2020. Going up against Jacub Panasiuk and a stout Spartan front, I'm curious to see if they'll keep that going. Also, keep an eye on the role of J.J. McCarthy in this one; the true freshman has rotated in this season, but could this be the game where he's featured even more heavily? He gives Michigan a true wild card offensively.

Michigan State's offense offers significantly more balance, and both can go for huge plays at any moment. Kenneth Walker III has been the biggest surprise of the 2021 season, as the former Wake Forest transfer has come out of seemingly nowhere to put together a Heisman campaign. He's joined by a rock-solid, steady hand at QB in Payton Thorne and an underrated receiver corps that includes Jayden Reed and Jalen Nailor. That pairing is really going to test this Wolverine secondary, as they're both averaging over 19 yards per reception and can hit a home run each time they step on the field. The question I have about MSU's offense is different than Michigan's. I think the Spartans offer more balance and playmakers than the Wolverines, but can they win the war in the trenches? Michigan has one of the best pass rushes in the nation, headlined by future All-American Aidan Hutchinson. Can the Spartan offensive line get enough push to survive four quarters? Walker is an awfully shifty tailback, but even he can't create magic when Michigan is living in their backfield.

Even though the game is in East Lansing, Michigan enters as the higher-rated team and the slight favorite. In some ways, it's understandable; the Wolverines have built a slightly better resume and are generally considered the premier program in the state. With that being said, I think the Spartans are actually the smarter bet. They have more ways they can hurt you offensively than the Wolverines, and while the defense isn't great, it's still awfully athletic. Getting them at home only makes this selection easier, in my mind.

The Pick: Michigan State, 27 Michigan, 24


(#20) Penn State Nittany Lions @ (#5) Ohio State Buckeyes

Penn State's nine overtime loss to Illinois last weekend spoiled what could have been the game of the week, but this matchup still has plenty of intrigue. For one, Ohio State is playing well and desperate to prove they're still the team to beat in the league. Just as important is the fact that these two programs have played some of the best games in the Big Ten over the last half-decade and I'd be shocked if this wasn't an exciting one.

Ohio State's offense took some time to really get rolling, but they've been on fire over the last month. TreVeyon Henderson has been of the best running backs anywhere in the nation as a true freshman, C.J. Stroud has taken command of the quarterback position, and the Buckeyes have always had the dangerous receiver combination of Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave. To be fair, the Buckeyes haven't exactly been playing dominant defenses during this recent run. They've played a five-game stretch of Tulsa, Akron, Rutgers, Maryland, and Indiana over the last month-plus. Penn State's defensive group is quite a bit different; they have the athletes to compete with the Buckeyes for an entire four quarters. The linebacker corps is quick and athletic and the secondary has one of the sport's most under-appreciated stars in do-it-all Jaquan Brisker. I think the Nittany Lions have a chance to contain the running game, even with the way Henderson has been playing as of late, but the passing game will be a difficulty. It's not just Olave and Wilson, but the fact Ohio State can throw so many different receivers at you and break open a monster play. I'm not sure there's a secondary that can contain this group, unless they're able to force turnovers like Oregon and contain Stroud. 

I actually like the Penn State defense and their chances to slow down the Buckeyes. The much larger questions are all on offense. Sean Clifford has having a resurgent 2021 before getting injured in the Iowa game and proceeding to look dreadful against Illinois. The coaching staff says he's back to 100 percent, but he looked like a complete shell of himself against the Illini. It's pretty obvious the Nittany Lions are so down on the rest of the quarterbacks on this roster that they're sticking with a beat-up Clifford, as he's still their best chance to win. It would help if the running game was able to be any help. The rush offense has had flashes where it looks like it's going to step up, but it hasn't been able to put it altogether. Former Baylor transfer John Lovett has seen a real increase in carries over the last several weeks, but it's still unclear who the feature guy is there. Perhaps this could be the week to figure it out, as this is the weakest OSU linebacker group I can remember. The good news for PSU is that Jahan Dotson and Parker Washington give them a chance no matter what. They'll have to do even more this weekend with the Clifford health question, but Dotson is known as a wide out whose always able to step up in the limelight.

Ohio State seems to be playing well at the right time and the fact they get PSU in "The Shoe" is huge. However, I don't think this one has the makings of a blowout. Penn State's going to give Ohio State a game, especially if Clifford can return to form. It will be tough to slow down this offense for an entire sixty minutes, but they'll keep it close to the very end. Unfortunately, I think the quartet of Stroud, Henderson, Olave, and Wilson is just too much.

The Pick: Ohio State, 31 Penn State, 24


(#1) Georgia Bulldogs vs. Florida Gators (Jacksonville)

One of the sport's greatest rivalries takes center stage in Jacksonville, with the latest edition of "The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party." Georgia has been dominant all season long, but could a rivalry game with the Gators be their kryptonite on this National Championship run?

The expectation is that Georgia will roll with a two quarterback system in this one, with both J.T. Daniels and Stetson Bennett playing. It's an interesting strategy, but one you have to believe Kirby Smart has reason for. Bennett has been a tremendous story, as the former walk-on continues to make the most of his moment on the big stage, but Daniels clearly has more natural arm talent. Either way, Georgia is going to run the ball first and foremost, thanks in large part to a loaded running back room. James Cook, Zamir White, Kenny McIntosh and Kendall Milton have put together a special 2021 season. Milton is out for this one and McIntosh is slightly banged up, but Cook and White are more than enough to take advantage of an average Gator rush defense. It does help that the Bulldogs are the healthiest they've been in a long time at pass-catcher. Arian Smith, Jermaine Burton, and Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint are all expected to be 100 percent, giving whoever the QB is plenty of options. Beyond corner Kaiir Elam, I'm not supremely confident Florida has the pieces to stop this Georgia passing attack. It's not an air raid offense, but more of a methodical unit that takes its chances when they're presented to them. The fact that the offense has so many dangerous weapons healthy means that we could see plenty of those chances.

Florida has been a baffling team this fall. They went toe-to-toe with Alabama in "The Swamp" and looked like they could be a serious factor in the SEC East. Since then, they've lost to Kentucky and LSU, and are in danger of being .500 going into the month of November. The offense has shown flashes, but hasn't been able to put in anything consistent for most of the year. It doesn't help that the quarterback situation such a mystery, with Emory Jones and Anthony Richardson both expected to play. Jones is the veteran in the room, but the Gator offense much more dynamic when Richardson is on the field. I think this is the game that Dan Mullen finally unleashes Richardson as the full-time starter, but how successful will he be against the Bulldogs? UF desperately needs some new faces to emerge elsewhere, but there's not any obvious possibilities. Richardson and Jones are No. 1 and 2 in rushing yards and beyond Jacob Copeland, the receiver group doesn't give you much reason to fear. Additionally, can the offensive line hold up? They played great against Alabama, but have looked worse each week. Now, they face one of the best front sevens we've seen in years, led by Jordan Davis. Davis has been the most dominant interior defensive linemen since Ndamukong Suh, and gets an opportunity to cause chaos against a primary rival.

Neutral site rivalries always give reason to tune in, but I don't know who could pick against UGA. They've been unstoppable all season and that's been with a beat up offense. The healthiest they've been in awhile, I expect them to rip apart a flimsy Gator defense. It shouldn't matter whether it's Jones or Richardson running the show offensively; the 'Dawgs roll either way.

The Pick: Georgia, 35 Florida, 21


Other Picks

(#10) Ole Miss, 42 (#18) Auburn, 31 -- Auburn has been a feel good story under first-year head coach Bryan Harsin, but they simply don't have the offensive firepower to keep up with Matt Corral and the Rebels over four quarters.

(#9) Iowa, 17 Wisconsin, 13 -- An absolute coin flip in Madison. Neither offense is even close to decent, and these two defenses are some of the best anywhere in the nation. Iowa's slight, and I mean slight, edge at QB gives them the edge.

(#11) Notre Dame, 27 UNC, 21 -- North Carolina may be the most disappointing team in the country this year. Sam Howell has given it his best shot, but the rest of the offense is bad, and the defense may be worse. I don't think they go into South Bend and pull off an upset.

(#17) Pittsburgh, 37 Miami, 24 -- My upset pick of Miami over NC State hit last weekend, but I don't think that turns the Hurricanes season around. They don't have the defense to contain Kenny Pickett, who is quietly playing himself into serious Heisman consideration.

Upset: Fresno State, 34 San Diego State, 31 -- San Diego State is the lone undefeated left in the Mountain West and gets the Bulldogs at home, but this is a sneaky Fresno team. As long as Jake Haener takes care of the football, I like Fresno's chances.

Superdog (covers > 21 spread): Colorado (+24) @ Oregon -- Oregon may be 6-1, but this is not a team blowing the doors off opposing foes. The Buffaloes don't have the offense to pull off an upset, but they can keep it tight.


Wednesday, October 27, 2021

College Basketball Preview 2021-22: Big Ten

Hunter Dickinson, Michigan


In a lot of ways, 2020-21 was a banner year for the Big Ten in basketball. The league was the most consistently strong in the sport, with nine teams playing in the NCAA Tournament and four teams earning either a No.1 or No. 2 seed. However, the conference's continued March issues stirred up once again, with only Michigan lasting into the Tournament's second weekend. This leaves the Big Ten with somewhat of a chip on its shoulder as we push into the 2021-22 campaign, eager to bring home their first National Title since Michigan State in 2000. There will be plenty of contenders to end the league's March woes, but the lack of a clear top team means that we should have another thrilling, chaotic campaign in the Midwest.


1. Michigan Wolverines 23-5 in 2020-21 (Elite Eight)

2020-21 Review: In just his second season at the helm in Ann Arbor, Juwan Howard delivered a powerful statement about Michigan's basketball program. The Wolverines were consistently the best team in the nation's best conference, finishing up with a 14-3 conference mark, even as they dealt with injuries and a lengthy COVID pause. They went into March as a No. 1 seed and came agonizingly close to another Final Four appearance before faltering against the flaming hot UCLA Bruins. Even with several notable pieces off to the NBA, Howard's work on the recruiting trail and his improved situational coaching mean Michigan enters this winter as the league's prohibitive favorite.

Backcourt: Tiny point guard Mike Smith proved to be a key pickup for Howard and the Michigan staff last season, as the Columbia transfer paced the offense with nine points and 5.3 assists per game. He proved to be the type of intelligent, effective ball handler that has made the Wolverines such a tough out throughout much of the last decade. His absence will undoubtedly be felt, but Michigan does have reinforcements waiting in the wings. For one, veteran Eli Brooks was a massive returnee after he averaged 9.5 PPG and 3.1 APG last year. He likely won't operate as the team's primary ball handler, but is a combo guard who can shoot and distribute. Most importantly, his leadership will be huge for a team that brings in numerous young freshmen expected to play large roles. Additionally, sophomore Zeb Jackson is a holdover from last season, while newcomers Frankie Collins and DeVante' Jones are expected to see major minutes. Jackson flashed potential as a freshman in a weird year, but he needs to become a better shooter to see his role expand. Jones was a prolific scorer at Coastal Carolina who may need some time to adjust to the rugged Big Ten, while Collins could start right away as a freshman. Collins is a maestro in the pick-and-roll, which pairs nicely with the versatile bigs Michigan can offer.

Frontcourt: While Brooks was a key returnee, none was more important for Michigan this off-season than Hunter Dickinson. Dickinson flirted with the NBA but instead opted to come back for his sophomore season. The 7'1" big is a relentless finisher around the rim, with a decent mid range shot and solid defensive fundamentals. He has the ceiling to be one of the best players anywhere in college basketball this season, and is a clear All-American possibility. The other two "veterans" in the Wolverine frontcourt are Brandon Johns Jr. and sophomore Terrance Williams II. Johns didn't play a large role last season but had a moment in the NCAA Tournament, while Williams is an asset who can defend multiple positions and crash the boards. Of course, Howard and staff also have a few big name newcomers up front as well, including five-star prospects Caleb Houstan and Moussa Diabate. Houston is a 6'8" forward who could eventually grow into the team's primary scoring threat, and Diabate is an elite rebounder. Overall, there's significantly more depth in this frontcourt than last season, which became problem when Dickinson got into foul trouble.

Overview: Howard has done a masterful job building a roster that perfectly fits modern college basketball. There's a nice blend of veterans, freshmen, and transfers pulled together, with shooters, rebounders, and defenders. With Dickinson and Brooks leading the charge this is a second weekend team no matter what, but the freshmen will determine UM's ceiling. If they're able to adjust quickly and decisively, this is a Final Four squad with serious National Title potential.

Postseason Prediction: Final Four


2. Purdue Boilermakers 18-10 in 2020-21 (First Round)

2020-21 Review: 2020-21 was supposed to be a rebuilding year in West Lafayette, but head coach Matt Painter continues to prove the doubters wrong. His Boilermakers struggled in the non-conference but then went on to win 13 games in the Big Ten and earn a No. 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Of course, they ended up falling short in the Big Dance, upset by North Texas in the first round. That should serve as an excellent motivator for a team that now brings back nearly everyone.

Backcourt: When sharpshooting Sasha Stefanovic was forced to miss time due to COVID, Jaden Ivey stepped into the starting lineup and proved to be an electrifying force. Ivey started the final 12 games of last season and finished with 14.8 points and 1.1 steals per game, while hitting numerous clutch shots along the way. Ivey now enters this season as one of the Big Ten's brightest stars, although he'll have to show he can be more efficient, after his shooting splits looked very much like a freshman's in '20-'21. Joining Ivey is a healthy and ready to go Stefanovic, who is a career 40% three-point shooter and moves extremely well without the ball. Then, there's sophomore Brandon Newman and senior Eric Hunter Jr., who will handle point guard duties. Those four give Purdue a quartet of proven guards with different strengths. There may not be a single Big Ten team with a backcourt able to counter that.

Frontcourt: Painter got a major win during the off-season when powerful senior big Trevion Williams announced he was returning for one more season. At 6'10", 265 pounds, Williams is an absolute load for any opposing Big Ten big to handle, and he's worked on his conditioning to be able to contribute deeper into games. After notching eleven double-doubles last season, he could be a Big Ten Player of the Year frontrunner. Alongside him is gigantic Zach Edey, the latest in a long line of Purdue seven-footers. Despite being inexperienced last year, Edey was extremely efficient and a real force in the low post. That pair could be the best post combo Purdue has had since Robbie Hummel and JaJuan Johnson were fully healthy. Don't forget about sophomore Mason Gillis either, as the undersized forward still proved to be a plus defender and effective rebounder. Lastly, freshman Caleb Furst arrives after leading his high school, Blackhawk Christian, to a state title. Furst won Indiana Mr. Basketball last year and can play either the four or five at the collegiate level.

Overview: This could be a special season for the Purdue Boilermakers. Not only is a bunch of proven starting experience returning, there's obvious star power with Williams and Ivey. The key for Purdue, like many other Big Ten schools, will be proving they can do it come March. While Painter delivered an Elite Eight with Carsen Edwards in 2019, the Boilermakers have also become accustomed to disappointment in the Big Dance. This is a group that can undoubtedly change that, and a potential first Final Four since 1980 seems to be in play.

Postseason Prediction: Elite Eight


3. Ohio State Buckeyes 21-10 in 2020-21 (First Round)

2020-21 Review: This past season, an explosive offense helped guide Ohio State to their fourth consecutive season of at least 20 wins. However, when it mattered most, that explosive offense sputtered, with the Buckeyes upset in the first round of the NCAA Tournament against 15-seed Oral Roberts. It put a damper on a season that was generally a massive success for Chris Holtmann and company, as the Buckeyes won 21 games total and finished fifth in the Big Ten at 12-8.

Backcourt: The departure of high-scoring guard Duane Washington Jr. leaves the Buckeyes with some rebuilding to do in their backcourt. Washington was the type of player that you could leave in iso and he would drop 20-plus points without breaking a sweat. There's nobody like that on this year's roster, but still some options. Wings Justice Sueing and Justin Ahrens proved to play big roles on last year's team and should be counted on heavily again. Sueing handled the ball quite a bit in 2020-21 and averaged 10.7 PPG, while Ahrens is a sharpshooter who nearly exclusively shoots threes. The questions in the backcourt lie with a pair of unproven, but talented, holdovers, plus the addition of Penn State transfer Jamari Wheeler. Bucknell transfer Jimmy Sotos and sophomore Meechie Johnson Jr. are the holdovers, both hoping to play major roles. Sotos was not healthy at all last year but can really stroke it, while Johnson left high school a year early and is essentially a true freshman. Wheeler is a nice pickup as an elite defender who has ample Big Ten experience, but he was incredibly streaky as a shooter while at PSU.

Frontcourt: Junior E.J. Liddell rivals Hunter Dickinson and Trevion Williams as one of the best returnees in the league, at any position. Liddell always plays bigger than his 6'7" frame, and he showed an improved shooting touch last season. He will now operate as Ohio State's chief scoring option, with Washington now gone. Returning along with Liddell is glue guy Kyle Young and former Harvard transplant Seth Towns. Young has dealt with countless injuries during his OSU career but is possibly the most important cog on the entire team, while Towns was rock-solid in his first season at the Big Ten level. Holtmann also brought in another in-conference transfer in Indiana's Joey Brunk. Brunk was a solid scoring option for Indiana in 2019-2020, but missed all of last season with a back injury. He likely won't start, but should provide quality minutes on this frontline.

Overview: Holtmann has built a consistent winner here in Columbus, and the Buckeyes will be an incredibly tough out in the conference once more. Washington's a major loss, but Ohio State should be able to spread out the scoring a little more this season, which will help them when the shooting just isn't there. That may actually end up improving the offense in the end, especially with more depth in this lineup than last year. There's a slight drop-off between OSU and the top two in the conference, but this still looks like a second weekend team.

Postseason Prediction: Sweet 16


4. Illinois Fighting Illini 24-7 in 2020-21 (Second Round)

2020-21 Review: Illinois put together the best season the program has experienced since 2005, earning a No. 1 seed and finishing second in the Big Ten with a 16-4 league record. But much the two teams preceding them on this list, a disappointing early March exit cast a shadow over an otherwise productive campaign. The Illini were dispatched by interstate rival Loyola-Chicago in the second round, and then watched as stars Ayo Dosunmu and Kofi Cockburn tested the NBA waters. Cockburn's late reversal not only to return to school but not transfer elsewhere ensured that there would still be plenty of hype entering 2021-22.

Backcourt: Dosunmu was the heart and soul of the Illinois offense a year ago, averaging over 20 points per game and five assists. He's the rare type of player that makes everybody else on the team better, while putting up extremely productive numbers. With all that being said, the Illini backcourt is not dearth of potential, even with Dosunmu now in the NBA. Second-year guard Andre Curbelo came on in a big way in 2020-21 and could be among the best in the Big Ten this season. He's a crafty, smooth lead guard who is an incredibly gifted passer for his age. He's still looking to become a more effective scorer, but Illinois doesn't need him to drop 15-20 a night to be successful. Curbelo's the likely breakout candidate on the team (if he hasn't broken out already), but Trent Frazier is the real leader. Frazier returns for his "super senior" year after taking advantage of the extra COVID year, providing proven leadership with a nice shooting touch. Along with that pair is another veteran, Da'Monte Williams, a strong shooter who can defend multiple positions. Combined, the trio may not have the superstar ability of Dosunmu, but it's certainly a good enough core to keep Illinois in Big Ten Title contention.

Frontcourt: The decision by Cockburn to return to Champaign was a real shocker. He looked like he'd land somewhere in the NBA Draft but after deciding to return to school, he looked like he might transfer. Instead, his return gives the Illini a dominant interior force who dwarfs most Big Ten bigs. Cockburn is a monster around the rim and a force on the glass, but Illinois would like to see him grow his offensive game (as would the NBA for that matter). If he can become a better mid range shooter or improve at the line, that would go a long way for this Illinois offense. There's not a bunch of experience in the frontcourt beyond Cockburn, but Coleman Hawkins is expected to step up after seeing a healthy dosage of minutes as a freshman, while Florida transfer Omar Payne was a big get. Payne's got a game very similar to Cockburn's, but he's a better shot-blocker. Having him as a backup will be particularly important, as Cockburn is still foul prone.

Overview: Even though last spring's loss to Loyola Chicago was a heartbreaker, there is no denying how great of a job head coach Brad Underwood has done with Illinois. It's unlikely this year's team will be able to reach the heights of last year's now that Dosunmu is gone, but Curbelo, Frazier, and Cockburn are an awfully good starting point. Although the team might not be as strong overall, a better path in the NCAA Tournament could provide a second weekend appearance.

Postseason Prediction: Sweet 16


5. Michigan State Spartans 15-13 in 2020-21 (First Four)

2020-21 Review: It was an uncharacteristic year in East Lansing last winter, as Michigan State needed a strong second half of Big Ten play just to qualify for the NCAA Tournament. They did, managing to avoid their first NCAA Tournament miss since 1997, but came up just short against UCLA, a team that would go on to the Final Four themselves. Losing to such a hot team helps make the loss easier, but it's clear that Tom Izzo is planning for a redemptive 2021-22 season after the team finished sub-.500 in the league for the first time since the early 1990s.

Backcourt: It was painfully clear how much Michigan State missed Cassius Winston last season, as they lacked a true point guard able to run the show. Neither Rocket Watts nor Foster Loyer fit the position the way Izzo likes, which resulted in the offense looking out-of-sync all season long, finishing 12th in the conference in scoring. Izzo hopes he has a quick fix in the form of Northeastern transfer Tyson Walker, who will see big minutes right away. Walker is a smart, heady point guard who also happens to be one of the best defensive players at his position anywhere in the NCAA. He'll be a massive addition, but it's somewhat unclear who will join him in the Spartan backcourt, as both Watts and Loyer transferred. Sophomore A.J. Hoggard should see an expanded role, but it's primarily a bunch of newcomers surrounding him. Sweet-shooting guard Max Christie was a huge get for Izzo and staff and will help to space the floor, while Pierre Brooks II was Michigan's Mr. Basketball. This is an unproven group, but it seems to fit what Izzo wants to do more than last year's edition.

Frontcourt: The Spartans are very deep along their frontcourt, but it will be interesting to see which pieces emerge as the real go-to options. Former Marquette transfer Joey Hauser had an up-and-down first season in East Lansing. He was dominant early on, but was benched during Big Ten play and will need to regain his confidence this winter. Senior Gabe Brown has flashed serious upside and is versatile enough to help in a lot of ways, but he's been seriously inconsistent. Then there's Malik Hall, Mady Sissoko, Julius Marble and Marcus Bingham Jr., all pieces who have talent, but haven't put it all together. Hall in particular looks like the closest to being a proven commodity, but he's slightly undersized and has had a difficult time adjusting to the physicality of the Big Ten. Don't be shocked if Sissoko starts to emerge from the pack, as the former big-time recruit has obvious upside, but was simply too raw to make an impact a season ago.

Overview: Even though this Michigan State team still has question marks, a bounce-back season from the Spartans seems likely. Izzo is too good of a coach, and this program is too strong to have another year near the bottom of the conference standings. With that being said, the backcourt absolutely needs to identify their starters early, and Christie will have to make an immediate impact. That's a lot to put on a young group, but not having to deal with as many COVID restrictions as last year should be a major benefit.

Postseason Prediction: Second Round


6. Indiana Hoosiers 12-15 in 2020-21 (No Postseason)

2020-21 Review: Few coaches in recent college basketball memory have been as sure things as Archie Miller at Indiana. Miller came over after a highly successful run at Dayton, and was supposed to restore the downtrodden Hoosiers to Big Ten glory. There always seemed to be some type of disconnect between the talent Miller was able to bring in and the actual results on the court and after four straight seasons without an NCAA Tournament bid, Indiana let him go. While the Hoosiers did finish 12-15 overall and tenth in the league, Miller does leave behind a full cupboard for new hire Mike Woodson.

Backcourt: Junior guard Rob Phinisee leads a backcourt with some familiar names and a big name newcomer in Pitt transfer Xavier Johnson. Phinsee won't lead Indiana in scoring, but his ability to control the offense and distribute the ball makes him the most important Hoosier on the court. Johnson will operate as the go-to scorer after tallying 14.2 PPG for the Panthers. With that being said, Johnson is a much better passer than most give him credit for, which should allow others in this backcourt to get involved. That includes names such as sophomore Khristian Lander and freshman Tamar Bates. Lander flashed potential a season ago, while Bates is a former Texas commit who moved on after Shaka Smart left. Additionally, UT-Martin transfer Parker Stewart provides valuable shooting prowess and can guard multiple positions at 6'5". 

Frontcourt: Trayce Jackson-Davis' decision to return to Bloomington was a major win for Woodson. Jackson-Davis is one of the best do-it-all players in the conference, as he can bang down low but has also flashed improved shooting ability. He averaged 19.1 PPG and nine boards per game last season and should be even more impactful this winter. Also back in the fold are veterans Race Thompson and Michael Durr, who played big minutes on last year's squad. Thompson flirted with transferring but instead opted to play for Woodson, while Durr is a behemoth down low who is looking to grow his offensive game. As crucial as that trio will be for Indiana's fortunes in 2021-22, the player to watch may be Miller Kopp, a Northwestern transplant. Kopp has an extremely impressive and varied offensive game and can really shoot the ball, despite being 6'7". He'll play a major role on this team this season and should hopefully open up more opportunities for Jackson-Davis and company down low due to his floor-spacing capabilities.

Overview: Woodson was a fairly surprising hire at the time, but his ability to bring back Jackson-Davis and the rest of this core, while adding Kopp, was impressive. There will still be growing pains as the Hoosiers transition to a new system, but this team was way more talented than a 12-15 last year. They are a good bet to break their NCAA Tournament drought, as they haven't played in the Big Dance since 2016.

Postseason Prediction: Second Round


7. Maryland Terrapins 17-14 in 2020-21 (Second Round)

2020-21 Review: The Terrapins began the 2020-21 Big Ten schedule slow, but rebounded to put together a solid 9-11 mark in the nation's toughest league. They pulled off somewhat of a surprising upset over UConn in the first round, but couldn't keep up with Alabama a few days later. In general, the season was a perfect encapsulation of Maryland basketball over the past half-decade; there was plenty to like, but it left fans wanting more, as the program has won a lot in the regular season but is still searching for its first second weekend NCAA trip since 2016.

Backcourt: The backcourt loses two key pieces in guards Aaron Wiggins and Darryl Morsell, who combined for over 23 points per game last season. However, head coach Mark Turgeon brings back a proven lead guard in Eric Ayala, and added numerous supporting pieces. Ayala appears on the cusp of true superstardom after leading the team in scoring last season. He's a crafty, intelligent playmaker who shot the ball extremely well down the stretch in 2020-21. It wouldn't be surprising at all if he managed First Team All-Big Ten this year. Ayala will be supported by Rhode Island transfer Fatts Russell and Hakim Hart, who played big minutes down the stretch last year. Russell was a regular contributor at Rhode Island and one of the biggest transfers in the league this off-season, while Hart can really pass the ball. Utah transfer Ian Martinez may also be counted on to play important minutes after taking the journey cross-country.

Frontcourt: Maryland didn't quite have the inside presence on last year's team they have in past iterations, although Donta Scott did emerge as a reliable contributor in Big Ten play. The good news is that Scott is back and ready to go, while Turgeon also brought on Georgetown transfer Qudus Wahab. Wahab is a double-double machine with good touch around the rim who is a natural center, with Scott operating as a power forward. Depth is a slight concern beyond that pair, with a host of transfers likely to see major minutes right away. Elon transfer Simon Wright can shoot the ball and play quality defense and Arizona State transfer Pavlo Dziuba was a pretty high-profile recruit. Turgeon was creative with how he handled the minutes in this frontcourt last season and he'll likely have to be again in '21-'22.

Overview: Since coming over from the ACC, Maryland has been one of the conference's most consistent contenders, but they're still searching for their true breakthrough under Turgeon. This team might be able to do it if the transfers acclimate quickly, but there's just not a ton of proven commodities beyond Ayala and Wahab. Another NCAA trip is very likely, but doing something when they get there has been the big challenge for the Terps.

Postseason Prediction: First Round


8. Rutgers Scarlet Knights 16-12 in 2020-21 (Second Round)

2020-21 Review: Rutgers made their first NCAA Tournament appearance in nearly three decades last March after going .500 in the Big Ten, earning themselves a 10 seed. They managed to topple Clemson in the first round and had future Final Four participant Houston on the ropes the entire way before a heartbreaking choke job that showed head man Steve Pikiell there's still work to be done. Even so, Pikiell continues to build the Scarlet Knights into a formidable foe in the loaded Big Ten and has another potential Tournament team on his hands in 2021-22.

Backcourt: Even though losing the tandem of Jacob Young and Montez Mathis hurts, Rutgers should still have one of the better backcourts in the Big Ten. Veterans Ron Harper Jr. and Geo Baker have proven they can lead the offense and Baker has improved as a passer throughout his Scarlet Knight career. They're joined by junior Caleb McConnell and sophomore Paul Mulcahy. McConnell saw his role expand at the end of last season and could play starters' minutes in 2021-22, while Mulcahy was a solid bench option a year ago and can really shoot the ball. 

Frontcourt: The frontcourt remains mostly intact but the lone absence is a significant one: seven-footer Myles Johnson left for UCLA. Johnson was fairly limited on the offensive end, but he was a key defender in the heart of the paint, averaging 2.4 BPG. The expectation is that the loss of Johnson will lead to an increased role in second-year freshman Cliff Omoruyi. Omoruyi was a high-profile recruit, but he didn't see the type of playing time some had expected a season ago. He's bulked up to try and handle the physical Big Ten, but there's still a ways to go. Joining Omoruyi will be a pair of transfers in Ralph Agee, who hails from San Jose State, and LSU's Aundre Hyatt. Hyatt is a special player, a 6'6" combo forward who can guard multiple positions but also offers a 7'4" wingspan. Another name to watch is Jaden Jones, who graduated early last year and played in four games, but was unable to make much of an impact.

Overview: The Scarlet Knights had one of their best teams in program history last winter, but there's still work to be done to challenge for the top of the Big Ten. Losing Johnson really hurts their frontcourt, which will be a difficult in a conference loaded with elite bigs, but Harper and Baker give them a fighting chance. After going .500 in the league last season, a slight slip down the conference standings may be in store, but another NCAA Tournament trek is likely.                  

Postseason Prediction: First Round


9. Iowa Hawkeyes 22-9 in 2020-21 (Second Round)

2020-21 Review: It's not often at a place like Iowa you have one of college basketball's brightest stars, but the Hawkeyes had just that in Luka Garza. Garza was a dominant force all season long, averaging over 24 PPG and nearly nine boards per game en route to National Player of the Year honors. Despite his impressive play, however, the Hawkeyes never seemed to reach their full potential. They finished third in the Big Ten and earned a two seed, but were thumped by Oregon in the second round. With Garza now officially gone, a new era begins for Fran McCaffery in Iowa City.

Backcourt: Long-term backcourt piece Jordan Bohannon chose to use another year of eligibility to help try and guide the Hawkeyes back to the postseason. Bohannon will never be an All-Conference guard, but he's a solid distributor and decent shooter who knows the league inside and out. He will play a crucial leadership role on this young team. Joining Bohannon in the backcourt is junior Joe Toussaint and Connor McCaffery. Toussaint will assume point guard duties full-time, while McCaffery is the type of intelligent, skilled ball-handler and defender that any college basketball team would love to have. With that being said, Iowa is very thin in the backcourt beyond that trio. Sophomore Ahron Ulis may be in store for a larger role, but there's nothing proven beyond him.

Frontcourt: Obviously, replacing a figure like Garza is a tall order. McCaffery is hopeful that a combination of newcomers and potential breakout candidates can somehow find a way to replicate Garza's impressive production. Sophomore Keegan Murray appears to be the most likely breakout possibility; he was incredibly productive as a freshman and has proven he can score and defend in this league. If he can become a better shooter, he has talent to be the top scoring threat on this roster. In addition, Patrick McCaffery, Fran's son, is expected to play a larger role. McCaffery is still limited in some aspects of his game, but he's a long and athletic forward who oozes with potential. Finally, there's two newcomers, Riley Mulvey and Filip Rebraca, who will play a role. Rebraca proved to be a quality scoring option during his time at North Dakota and knows how to play high-major basketball.

Overview: Although losing Garza and Joe Wieskamp will undoubtedly cause a rebuilding season in Iowa City, the Hawkeyes could still be interesting. Bohannon, Murray, Toussaint, and both McCafferys give the roster experience and potential, even if there's not yet an identifiable star. However, the lack of depth and proven scoring pieces likely mean it's an NIT year for the Hawkeyes.

Postseason Prediction: NIT


10. Wisconsin Badgers 18-13 in 2020-21 (Second Round)

2020-21 Review: A veteran-laden team was supposed to deliver a potential special season in Madison, but the Badgers instead stuck near the middle-of-the-pack for much of the season. They finished 18-13 overall and 10-10 in the league, tying with several others for sixth place. A short-lived NCAA Tournament berth saw them lose handily to the eventual National Champion Baylor Bears. The on-court results were merely okay, but the bigger story might be the off-the-court drama. A tense, players-only meeting that included several veterans airing their grievances about the program appears to show deeper problems for the program as they prepare for Greg Gard's seventh year.

Backcourt: Few players anywhere in college basketball are as controversial Brad Davison. Davison has proven to be a solid Big Ten guard, but he's also had a variety of instances of him playing dirty basketball. Even so, he was able to come back for one more year due to the NCAA's COVID eligibility rules, meaning Wisconsin has a proven veteran leading the way, even if he has a love-hate relationship with most Badger fans. There's a chance that the other starter in the backcourt will be freshman Chucky Hepburn, who could run the show as the point guard. Hepburn is a level-headed, intelligent player who should be able to quickly adjust to the speed of the college game. Joining those two is Jonathan Davis, who is a real breakout possibility. He already is the team's No. 2 returning scorer, but even more is expected after the way he finished 2020-21.

Frontcourt: The frontcourt was hit particularly hard by losses, as Micah Potter, Nate Reuvers, and Aleem Ford all left. That leaves Gard and staff scrambling to help new blood acclimate to large roles quickly, namely guys like Ben Carlson, Steven Crowl, and freshman Matthew Mors. Neither Carlson nor Crowl saw much playing time last season but could now start, while Mors was the three-time Player of the Year in South Dakota. Sophomore Tyler Wahl does provide much-needed experience on the wing, and he had a strong second half in '21-'22. He's especially important as a versatile player who can score in a wide variety of ways. Beyond that, there's simply not much here, with the exception being Cincinnati grad transfer Chris Vogt. This could be the thinnest backcourt in recent Badger history.

Overview: There's a sense of pressure surrounding Gard and the entire program as they embark on 2021-22. All the roster turnover means that there will be plenty of new faces, although having a few familiar ones, such as Davison, Davis, and Wahl will be a major help. There's not just enough returning to expect another NCAA Tournament trip, especially considering how many good frontcourts there are currently in the Big Ten.

Postseason Prediction: NIT


11. Northwestern Wildcats 9-15 in 2020-21 (No Postseason)

2020-21 Review: The Wildcats were one of the surprises of the early 2020-21 Big Ten season, winning their first three league games, which included upsetting then-No. 4 Michigan State and No. 23 Ohio State. It turns out the early success wouldn't carry through, as Northwestern lost their next 13 games before finishing up strong, with three consecutive wins to end the regular season. A 6-13 league record left them 12th in the Big Ten, but there was enough progress for the Wildcats to start thinking about a return to the NCAA Tournament in 2021-22.

Backcourt: The Wildcats are loaded with experience in the backcourt, with two of their top scorers, Boo Buie and Chase Audige, leading the charge. The pair has to learn to be more consistent but when they're on, they form one of the best guard combos in the Big Ten. Audige in particular has All-League talent and is a tough matchup for opposing defenders at 6'5" with speed. Reliable guard Ryan Greer is also back and will see minutes off the bench. Greer isn't much of a scorer, but he's an elite defender who puts in high quality minutes. Beyond that trio, a host of freshmen will compete for minutes, namely Casey Simmons and Julian Roper II. Roper in particular is a name to watch, as the high-flying Michigan product can play multiple guard spots and rebounds incredibly well for his position.

Frontcourt: The only loss for Northwestern in the frontcourt is a notable one, as Miller Kopp transferred to Indiana after averaging 11.3 PPG in 2020-21. His shooting touch will be sorely missed for a team that needs to space the floor better, but there's still loads of talent in the frontcourt. Junior Pete Nance continues to grow into his own, as an explosive forward who can shoot the ball. Much like Audige and Buie, consistency has been an issue for the veteran, but he's a real menace for opponents when he's playing well. Nance will be flanked up front by sophomores Ryan Young and Robbie Beran, who put up solid numbers a season ago. Young's a crafty player around the rim, but he has a long way to go to match some of the other elite bigs in conference, while Beran is a factor on the glass. Add in Farleigh Dickinson transfer Elyjah Williams, who is a prototypical stretch four, and the Wildcats will be the deepest they've been in years in the frontcourt.

Overview: Chris Collins succeeded in his main mission when taking over Northwestern basketball: delivering an NCAA Tournament berth for the first time in program history. Since then, Collins has learned trying to create a consistent winner in the Big Ten can be just as hard. However, the Wildcats showed real fight and toughness last year, even if the 13-game losing streak was tough to watch. With a ton back and a decent crop of freshmen, this could be a sneaky Northwestern team that could play themselves into Tournament consideration.

Postseason Prediction: NIT


12. Penn State Nittany Lions 11-14 in 2020-21 (No Postseason)

2020-21 Review: On top of all the difficulties COVID-19 presented last season, Penn State also had to deal with coaching turnover, as head man Pat Chambers was fired mere weeks before the season. The Nittany Lions handled it about as well as you could ask, as they fought to a 7-12 record in the toughest conference in America. Interim coach Jim Ferry was not retained and took over at UMBC, which meant PSU turned to Purdue assistant Micah Shrewsberry to take over the program. Shrewsberry has a decent amount of experience back, but will have work to do as he tries to guide the Nittany Lions to their first NCAA Tournament appearance in over a decade.

Backcourt: There will be a learning curve for the backcourt as Izaiah Brockington, Myreon Jones, and Jamari Wheeler all move on. Juniors Myles Dread and Sam Sessoms should now be in for larger roles after primarily coming off the bench a year ago. Dread remains one of the best shooters in the league, while Sessoms is a scrappy, rock-solid combo guard. Beyond that, Shrewsberry and staff will have to lean on a group of newcomers. Jaheam Cornwall comes over from Gardner-Webb after putting together an All-Conference season, while Jalen Pickett arrives from Siena. Pickett isn't quite the scorer Cornwall is, but offers plenty as a quality defender and tremendous rebounder.

Frontcourt: After flirting with the idea of transferring, Seth Lundy decided to come back for another year in State College. It's a huge returnee for the Nittany Lions, as Lundy averaged 10.1 PPG last year and proved he could have scoring outbursts regularly. He'll undoubtedly become PSU's top scoring option this season, especially with Brockington and Jones gone. Senior forward John Harrar is a beast on the glass and a real leader in the locker room who will play a pivotal role for this team. Additionally, little-used second-year forward Caleb Dorsey is back in town. Dorsey wasn't able to crack the starting lineup last season, but has the potential to be a complete offensive player. There's reinforcements coming in through the portal here, as well. Greg Lee arrives after an All-MAC season with Western Michigan, while JUCO transfer Jevonnie Scott could help out at any number of positions. 

Overview: Penn State's basketball program has been stuck in a frustrating spot for most of the last decade. Rarely have they ever bottomed-out, but they haven't been a serious NCAA Tournament threat for some time. The hope is that Shrewsberry will provide much-needed stability, while also increasing their upside in the long-term. His first team likely will take some scrapes and bruises with so many big names gone, but Lundy, Harrar and company will keep them in the fight. 

Postseason Prediction: None


13. Nebraska Cornhuskers 7-20 in 2020-21 (No Postseason)

2020-21 Review: Fred Hoiberg's second team in Lincoln wasn't a ton better than his first, as Nebraska floundered in the cellar of the Big Ten once again. They went 7-20 overall and 3-16 but at least showed more offensive spark than the 2019-2020 team and were in more games. Hoiberg is now hoping that his third team can be the one that really gets the program off-the-ground. The roster flipped completely for the third straight off-season, meaning there will be a host of new faces leading the offense.

Backcourt: Trey McGowens proved to be a key pickup for Hoiberg last season, as the former Pitt Panther averaged 10.7 PPG and 3.9 RPG. He's the top returning scorer on the roster and if he can find his jumper again, he could be one of the more underrated players in the conference. However, his real value may have been as a recruiter, as he obviously played a huge role in getting his brother, Bryce, to sign with the Cornhuskers. Bryce is the highest-rated recruit in school history and steps on to campus with a crazy amount of fanfare. He'll undoubtedly see major minutes right away, with Nebraska likely to feed him the ball early and often. Arizona State transfer Alonzo Verge Jr. was one of the top scorers in the Pac-12 before his decision to transfer, upping the talent level in Lincoln a step further. Both Verge and McGowens may start right away, but senior Kobe Webster did play well down the stretch and will fight to retain his starting gig.

Frontcourt: The 'Husker frontcourt is an interesting collection of players with vastly different strengths. Junior Lat Mayen is incredibly streaky from three-point range but is extremely effective when he's on his game. Tennessee transfer Derrick Walker arrived from the SEC and proved to be a plus-defender with some offensive abilities. Second-year freshman Eduardo Andre is a giant at 6'10" with a mind-boggling 7'5" wingspan. He has the tools to be an elite shot-blocker, but needs to add weight to survive the Big Ten. Newcomer Wilhelm Breidenbach comes in with plenty of hype as a Top 100 recruit, but tore knee cartilage last spring. It's unclear when he'll be back completely at full-go, but he has impressed in practice so far.

Overview: Nebraska knew that Hoiberg would need some time to get the program back to competitiveness, and his first two years gave been brutal. The hope is that the always-important Year 3 will finally start to yield some results. With McGowens and Verge both arriving and numerous returnees, the 'Huskers have the tools to be an interesting team. They likely still won't be a postseason team, but could get themselves out of the cellar of the league.

Postseason Prediction: None


14. Minnesota Golden Gophers 14-15 in 2020-21 (No Postseason)

2020-21 Review: 2020-21 was a story of two seasons for the Minnesota Golden Gophers. There was the 9-1 start that included wins over Iowa and Michigan State. There was also the horrifying finish, with the Gophers losing ten of their final 12 regular season games, including losses to Northwestern and Nebraska. The steep fall during the season's second half led AD Mark Coyle to finally move on from head coach Richard Pitino after nearly a decade in charge in Minneapolis. New head man Ben Johnson has never been a head coach and watched as his roster underwent historical levels of turnover over the off-season.

Backcourt: The only familiar name in the Minnesota backcourt is Payton Willis, who played one season with the Gophers before a quick pit stop at College of Charleston. Willis started 25 games for the Gophers in 2019-20 and proved to be a solid scorer who can shoot the ball. After playing more a support role the last time he was here, Willis will have the green light early and often this season. Beyond him, it is anybody's guess who will see the vast majority of the minutes in the Gopher backcourt. A trio of transfers come in from the low-major ranks, all with different skill sets. William & Mary product Luke Loewe led his team in scoring and has a craft offensive game, Lafayette transfer Eylijah Stephens gets to the rim and shoots well at the stripe, and Sean Sutherlin had his moments at New Hampshire but struggled with injury. There's also Abdoulaye Thiam, whose only career experience came at Indian River Junior College. Thiam shot the ball well last season, but obviously the JUCO ranks are quite different than the Big Ten.

Frontcourt: There's slightly more experience in the Minnesota frontcourt, but that's a relative statement. Long-time big Eric Curry graduated and looked to be gone, but instead decided to return for one final year. Curry has proven to be a productive big when healthy, but injuries have been an unfortunate theme of his career. If he can't stay healthy, the Gophers don't have a ton of options on this front line. George Washington transfer Jamison Battle was a major get for Johnson and this staff, as he was an All-Atlantic 10 player last winter. He immediately becomes one of the major scoring threats on this roster, and his previous background with Johnson will really help. Beyond those two, there's a whole bunch of questions. Division II All-American Parker Fox is a Minnesota native who made the decision to come home, but he's expected to miss the entire season. Isaiah Ihnen, a former Top 100 recruit who flashed some potential under Pitino, was also expected to play an important role but will also miss the season. That likely means former Stephen F. Austin transfer Charlie Daniels, freshman Treyton Thompson, and Division II transfer Danny Ogele will vie for other minutes. Even if this front-line is able to stay healthy, this is pretty clearly the worst frontcourt in the league.

Overview: Even in a year where the transfer portal was overflowing, perhaps no team in college basketball experienced as much roster turnover as the Gophers. They watched key names like Marcus Carr, Gabe Kalscheur and Liam Robbins head elsewhere and the few that remained on the roster, such as Ihnen, are not healthy. Consider this crazy stat: last March, Minnesota's 12 healthy players attended 12 different schools at five different levels (DI, DII, DIII, NJCAA and high school). It would be absolute miracle if this team was competitive in Johnson's debut campaign. In fact, the reality is that this could challenge as one of the worst teams in Gopher school history.

Postseason Prediction: None


All-Big Ten Teams

First Team

G Andre Curbelo, Illinois

G Eric Ayala, Maryland

F Trayce Jackson-Davis, Indiana

F Hunter Dickinson, Michigan

F/C Kofi Cockburn, Illinois

Second Team

G Jaden Ivey, Purdue

G Ron Harper Jr., Rutgers

F Caleb Houstan, Michigan

F E.J. Liddell, Ohio State

F/C Trevion Williams, Purdue

All-Freshman

G Bryce McGowens, Nebraska

G Max Christie, Michigan State

F Caleb Houstan, Michigan

F Caleb Furst, Purdue

F/C Moussa Diabate, Michigan


Conference Superlatives

Player of the Year: Hunter Dickinson, Michigan

Coach of the Year: Matt Painter, Purdue

Freshman of the Year: Caleb Houstan, Michigan

Transfer of the Year: Alonzo Verge Jr., Nebraska





Thursday, October 21, 2021

College Football Picks 2021: Week Eight

 

Bryce Young, Alabama

Current Picks Record: 42-21

Upset: 4-3

Superdogs: 6-1


(#8) Oklahoma State Cowboys @ Iowa State Cyclones

Oklahoma State has been one of the nation's biggest surprises, jumping out to a 6-0 mark and Top 10 ranking. They've now beaten three straight ranked foes, but could be in store for their toughest game of the month. They travel to Ames to face an Iowa State team who went through some early struggles, but appears to be finding their momentum in late October.

The Cowboys have been successful this season despite their worst offense of the Mike Gundy era. To be fair, they've dealt with a rash of injuries throughout the offense, most notably at receiver. However, the unit doesn't have the same explosiveness it once did, instead leaning on a steady ground attack and methodical passing game. The ground game is led by Jaylen Warren, a rock-solid tailback who has taken over workhorse duties for the 'Pokes. But, the fact of the matter is that Oklahoma State desperately needs more from QB Spencer Sanders. Sanders has a huge arm and will make one or two throws every game that wow you. Aside from that, he's just not consistent enough to strike fear into opposing defenses on a regular basis, particularly with how beat up the Cowboy receiver corps has been. I don't see any reason why Iowa State doesn't stack the box with an elite front seven and force Sanders to make tough throws. A fully healthy Tay Martin and Brennan Presley give the Cyclones something to think about, but the X-factor is Sanders. 

The good news for Oklahoma State is that their defense is probably the Big 12's best. They're a disciplined group that fills gaps very well, but they also bring more athleticism and speed to the equation than people give them credit for. Does Iowa State have the offensive firepower themselves to put up points? Quarterback Brock Purdy and tailback Breece Hall are two of the most accomplished players in the entire conference and have had quality 2021 seasons. But, the same issue for ISU has remained all season: do they have a game-changer on the perimeter that can stretch defenses vertically? Tight ends Charlie Kolar and Chase Allen are two of the best in the business, but the pass-catchers have been pretty underwhelming beyond them. Senior Xavier Hutchinson is their top receiver on the year, but has disappeared in their two losses as defenses have keyed in on him. Names like Tarique Milton or freshman Jaylin Noel have to give Oklahoma State some reason to worry over-the-top, or they'll pace it in much like the Cyclones. You would also like to see Iowa State's offensive line play better; it's a veteran group that is by no means bad, but will have their hands full working against an athletic Oklahoma State front.

It's interesting how these two programs have evolved over time. In the past, you might expect somewhat of a shootout between these two sides, especially considering they both have veteran quarterbacks. But it's clear this is not going to be a Big 12 game of old; these two are going to play tough defense, ball control, and force the opponent to beat them. I think the Cyclones have the edge at quarterback, but the Cowboy defense is more athletic and agile than the ISU group. It's a tough decision to make, but I lean Cyclones here, only because of the Ames factor. Even though it won't be a night game, there's something about the atmosphere in Jack Trice Stadium that makes it especially worrying for opposing Top 10 teams.

The Pick: Iowa State, 21 Oklahoma State, 17


(#10) Oregon Ducks @ UCLA Bruins

Although there's still lots of football left to be played and you can be certain of nothing in the Pac-12, there's a chance that this could be a Pac-12 Championship Game preview. Oregon hasn't exactly been dominating opponents since their Stanford loss, but they are 5-1 and the prohibitive favorite in the North. UCLA received a lot of attention early after their LSU win, but has lost two games and will have to fend off Utah and Arizona State in the South.

It's hard to know what you're going to get from the Oregon offense at this point in the season. Quarterback Anthony Brown has had some genuinely good moments, but he's been underwhelming since the Ohio State game. There's still questions around the program about whether it might be time for youngsters Ty Thompson or Jay Butterfield, but Brown will run the show for the time being. It doesn't help that Oregon's top running back, C.J. Verdell, is now done for the season. What was once a multi-pronged Duck ground game will be forced to lean heavily on Travis Dye to carry the load, with more of freshman Byron Cardwell sprinkled in (at least until Sean Dollars gets healthy). The receiver corps is talented enough to keep things afloat, even if there's not a clear signature guy. Veteran Johnny Johnson III is their leader in most receiving categories, but Jaylon Redd and Mycah Pittman are able to used in different ways. Then there's the offensive line, which had a tremendous game against Ohio State, but hasn't lived up to expectations since then. The UCLA defensive front isn't full of big names, but it's proven it can be a load to handle when opposing teams aren't prepared. If the Ducks don't block better and open up lanes for Dye, the pressure on Brown continues to build.

UCLA's offense has been slightly more consistent than Oregon's this season, but they're extremely one-dimensional. They rely heavily on a ground game that includes the two-headed monster of Zach Charbonnet and Brittain Brown. The pair is both averaging 6.4 yards per carry and are former transplants from Power Five making the most of their opportunity in Westwood. But like Oregon, quarterback play is going to be the game-changer for the Bruins. Dorian Thompson-Robinson's entire Bruin career has been a rollercoaster ride. He's had moments where he looks like one of the Pac-12's best and plenty of other times where you wonder why he's the starter. Simply look at this last two games to get an understanding of his streakiness; against a terrible Arizona team he couldn't hit anything, going 8-19 for just 82 yards. A week later against a vastly superior Washington pass defense, he had more zip on his ball and went 21-26 with a pair of touchdowns. Obviously, it's difficult to know which "DTR" is going to show up for this one against a Duck secondary that is extremely talented, but fairly beat up. It would also help if more pieces could step up on the perimeter for UCLA; tight end Greg Dulcich is a stud and Kyle Phillips can make things happen, but there's not a ton of playmaking between those two. It definitely looks like DTR feels like he has to make plays happen at times, which can get him into trouble in a hurry.

With a fairly underwhelming slate of games this week, "College GameDay" is setting up camp between these two Pac-12 programs. While that may add to the excitement, neither team is playing their best football of the season and need a momentum changer to get back on track. Common logic would dictate that Oregon going on the road with their current situation is going to be a tough one, but I'm sticking with the Ducks. I think the offense will eventually right the ship and there's way too much talent on this roster for them to have two losses going into November.

The Pick: Oregon, 28 UCLA, 20


Tennessee Volunteers @ (#4) Alabama Crimson Tide

Alabama has won 14 straight games in the "Third Saturday of October" rivalry and enter the game as the heavy home favorite. Yet, this is not the same Tennessee team as past Alabama teams have seen. Josh Heupel has done a real stellar job in Year One considering all the uncertainty still lingering around the program. They have a strong enough offense to give Nick Saban and the Tide a real test, even in Tuscaloosa.

Alabama has still yet to reach their true peak offensively, but Bryce Young has earned himself serious Heisman consideration as a first-year starter. Although his stats aren't necessarily gaudy, he's proven to be incredibly consistent and reliable for someone of his age, and he rarely makes mistakes. He's still waiting on others to emerge in this offense; Ohio State transfer Jameson Williams and John Metchie have been productive, but the ground game is still looking for a real feature guy. Brian Robinson Jr. is their most reliable ground option but don't be surprised if Roydell Williams continues to see his role grow, especially now that Jase McClellan is injured. Williams went for 78 yards against Mississippi State last weekend and is currently averaging 6.4 yards per rush, making him one of the true big play threats on this offense. We will also have to see which version of Alabama's offensive line comes out; this group is incredibly talented and loaded with future NFL linemen, but they were completely outplayed by both Florida and Texas A&M. I suspect they still have the edge in this spot, but this Volunteer pass rush has been much improved in 2021.

Since making the switch from Joe Milton to Hendon Hooker, the Tennessee offense has been incredibly productive. They're currently averaging nearly 40 points per game and went toe-to-toe with one of the SEC's best offenses in Ole Miss last Saturday. Hooker's the type of quarterback that has shown he can give the Tide troubles; he isn't super accurate, but has a rocket of an arm and can make plays with his legs. The Alabama secondary could be susceptible, as we saw with their showing against Zach Calzada and A&M, so I'm curious how aggressive Hooker and the Vols will be down the field. Either way, their ground game is going to provide them the rhythm they need to move the ball against the Tide. It is currently the nation's No. 5 rush offense, totaling nearly 250 yards per game. However, their breakout star on offense, Tiyon Evans, is currently listed as questionable. He missed the Ole Miss game and even if he does come back for this one, you have to wonder how effective he'll be. That puts even more of the playmaking load on Hooker and backup Jabari Small. It's not necessarily a death sentence, but against a defense with the talent of Alabama's, you need all the weapons you can get. In fact, I'm very curious to see how the Tide defense performs here. Going into the season, I thought this had a chance to be the best 'Bama defense since the early Saban days, but they've been a disappointment. If they struggle against Tennessee, there will be a very serious conversation about Pete Goulding and his future as defensive coordinator.

It goes without saying that Alabama has dominated this rivalry since Nick Saban arrived in Tuscaloosa, but this has a chance to be interesting. This is not a great Tennessee team, but they're fun-to-watch and play with a lot more attitude than past Volunteer groups. They'll keep it close against Alabama, especially if Evans is able to go. The Tide are certainly still the smarter pick, but this team clearly is not invincible, and Tennessee will be motivated.

The Pick: Alabama, 38 Tennessee, 27


Other Picks

(#6) Michigan, 28 Northwestern, 14 -- I like the Wolverines to keep it going as the powerful pass rush overwhelms a struggling Northwestern offense.

Clemson, 27 (#23) Pittsburgh, 24 -- Kenny Pickett's transformation into upper echelon ACC quarterback has been a great story, but people seem to forget how well the defense has played this season. They just need the offense to find some sort of rhythm.

(#5) Ohio State, 37 Indiana, 20 -- Indiana gave Ohio State quite the scare in 2020, but this offense is a shell of what it was a year ago. Ohio State goes into Bloomington and comes away unscathed.

(#12) Ole Miss, 35 LSU, 21 -- How does LSU wrap up the season? The starting lineup is riddled with injuries and it's confirmed Ed Orgeron won't be back. I don't envision them going into Oxford and upsetting the Rebels. 

Upset: Miami, 29 NC State, 21 -- Although the Hurricanes sit at 2-4, their last two losses have come on a combined five points. This is a better football team than they've shown so far this season, even with a true freshman, Tyler Van Dyke, steering the offense. I'll take my chances with the 'Canes down in Coral Gables.

Superdog (covers > spread): UMass (+35.5) vs. Florida State -- UMass is a bad football, but are we so confident Florida State has turned a corner that they beat the Minutemen by more than five scores? That's a large line for a Florida State that has 0-4 two weeks ago.

Thursday, October 14, 2021

College Football Picks 2021: Week Seven

Bijan Robinson, Texas


Current Picks Record: 35-19

Upset: 3-3

Superdogs: 5-1


(#11) Kentucky Wildcats @ (#1) Georgia Bulldogs

The SEC East is on the line this weekend, as the top-ranked Georgia Bulldogs welcome the SEC's biggest surprise, Kentucky. The Wildcats are 6-0 and eager to secure their first victory over a No. 1 overall team since 2007, when they toppled LSU. Georgia has become the National Title favorite, but they still have injury concerns on both sides of the ball.

After missing the last few weeks due to injury, the expectation is that QB J.T. Daniels will be back and ready to go for the Bulldogs. Although backup Stetson Bennett has filled in admirably, Daniels give this Georgia offense a different element down the field. The Bulldog receiver corps has also been beat up for most of the season, but that has allowed new faces to shine through. Tight end Brock Bowers has emerged as one of the best true freshmen in the nation, Ladd McConkey has been a revelation and when healthy, Jermaine Burton is an All-SEC wide out. One pass-catcher to watch in this one is tight end Darnell Washington, who made his season debut against Auburn last weekend. The 6'7" monster tight end is a complete matchup nightmare for opposing defenses and Kentucky has absolutely nobody on their defense that can hang with him. I'll be curious to see how Georgia chooses to use his services in this game. Of course, the Bulldog rushing attack will also test the Wildcats, even if this defense has put up good numbers against the run in 2021. UGA can rotate in four different tailbacks without much drop-off between them in Zamir White, James Cook, Kenny McIntosh, and Kendall Milton. In a college football landscape where transfers have become the norm, it really is impressive how this staff has managed to keep that quartet together and humming along. Although there's not a true superstar of the four, it may be one of the most talented backfields in recent college football history.

Kentucky has long played tough defense under head coach Mark Stoops, but the reason for their jump this fall has been a vastly improved offense, all thanks to new OC Liam Coen. Coen still leans heavily on a physical rushing attack, like his predecessors before him under Stoops, but his offense has introduced more flow and creativity than past Wildcat units. It also helps that there are some legitimately fun players to watch on this offense, including Nebraska transfer Wan'Dale Robinson and powerful tailback Christopher Rodriguez Jr. Rodriguez has been a workhorse all season, with 768 yards on 120 attempts so far, but he has yet to face a defensive front like Georgia's. The Bulldogs are fast, athletic and deep, with All-American defensive tackle Jordan Davis headlining their rush defense. The fact of the matter is, Kentucky is going to have to throw the ball more in this game than their past six. Will Levis has been an improvement over what UK trotted out last season, but he's been awfully inconsistent. It doesn't help that the Georgia secondary is also getting back to full strength, as star safety Tykee Smith made his debut last week and is nearing 100 percent. There's still a chance Kentucky could strike a few deep and Robinson's explosiveness will be huge, but I'm not sure who UGA fears on the perimeter beyond him. Senior Josh Ali, who is just behind Robinson in every major receiving category, is not expected to play in this game. That means UK is going to have to create some magic against a dominant defense without a key piece to the puzzle. It's a lot to ask, even with the job Coen has done since taking over play-calling in Lexington.

2021 is starting to feel like 2007 again with all the chaos and intrigue that has occurred in college football this season. Does that mean Kentucky will repeat history and topple a No. 1 team again? This team will be a tough out, but I just don't see how they go into Sanford Stadium and come out victorious. The Bulldogs have just been so good this year, and it's likely they'll only get better as they become healthier. The Wildcats put up a fight, but they're no match over four quarters.

The Pick: Georgia, 34 Kentucky, 20


(#12) Oklahoma State Cowboys @ (#25) Texas Longhorns

One week after a heart-wrenching loss to Oklahoma in the Red River Showdown, Texas welcomes the other Oklahoma school to Austin in a comeback spot. On the other hand, Oklahoma State is 5-0 and hoping to truly assert themselves as a Big 12 Title frontrunner. They have two consecutive wins against Top 25 teams and would love to add one more against the Longhorns.

Although they may have come up short against OU, there is no question that Texas' offense did their job, tallying 48 points. Since taking over starting quarterback duties for Hudson Card, Casey Thompson has been tremendous, showcasing an impressive command of the offense and real confidence throwing the ball. It also helps that he just happens to have one of college football's best players with him in the backfield, as Bijan Robinson continues to awe. With that being said, those two could be in for a challenge against Oklahoma State's defense. This is not the Mike Gundy defenses of old; this may be the best defensive group in the Big 12. They have good size and discipline in the front seven and are led by one of the nation's top linebackers in Malcolm Rodriguez. This Cowboys team plays significantly more physical than past editions, which could be a real test for Texas. The last time they faced a defense similar to this was against Arkansas, when they couldn't get anything going offensively (albeit with a different QB). It doesn't help UT that they lost their top wide out, Jordan Whittington, who is likely done for the year. Whittington was the type of do-it-all wide receiver that every offense covets, but his absence means increased opportunities for Xavier Worthy and veteran Joshua Moore. Worthy has possibly been the best true freshman receiver in the country, but Moore has to show up after a quiet start to the 2021 campaign. 

It's hard to know what to expect from this Oklahoma State offense week-in, week-out. This is a program known for explosive offenses, but they just haven't shown up this year. Veteran quarterback Spencer Sanders missed the start of the season and since returning, has been good, but far from great. He has a huge arm that should test the Longhorn secondary over-the-top, but turnovers and accuracy issues continue to persist. It doesn't help that his receiver corps has been banged up all year, resulting in the lack of a true No. 1, although a healthy Tay Martin is likely the player that strikes the most fear into UT DC Pete Kwiatkowski. It's likely the Cowboys lean heavily on the ground attack, as Jaylen Warren has been one of the Big 12's biggest surprises. He has 512 yards and six touchdowns on the year and after Kennedy Brooks ran all over Texas last week, there should be plenty of space for him to work with. In general, I'm really curious to see how the Longhorn defense responds after the way they played in the second half last Saturday. It wasn't just one particular unit or group that had a bad end to the game; the D-Line couldn't get pressure, the linebacker group was gouged by the run, and the secondary let up a bunch of huge plays. This Cowboy offense is not as good as Oklahoma's is at full strength, but they can still move the ball.

Oklahoma State has been a good story in 2021, winning a bunch of close games and transforming the program's identity. But I think the undefeated season comes to a close this weekend. I'm not sure if they have the offensive firepower to keep up with Texas, even if they're able to slow down Bijan. Casey Thompson's continued emergence makes the Longhorns extremely dangerous and the defense doesn't even have to play particularly well to get the job done.

The Pick: Texas, 37 Oklahoma State, 27


TCU Horned Frogs @ (#4) Oklahoma Sooners

After their thrilling win last Saturday, could Oklahoma be in for a letdown spot against a sneaky TCU team? It's happened before and even in Norman, the Sooners need to be on upset alert against the Horned Frogs.

The biggest question for the Sooners starts at the game's most important position: has Caleb Williams officially supplanted Spencer Rattler as the starting QB? Lincoln Riley has shied away from officially naming who will start this weekend, even going as far as cancelling all media availability for the week. However, you would assume that Williams will be the guy going forward after what he did last Saturday, leading a Sooner offense that has all the tools to be dominant. It also helps that Oklahoma appeared to find their ground game a week ago, as Kennedy Brooks played tremendously. When 100 percent, Brooks is among the most talented backs anywhere in the nation, and he'll be a real problem for a TCU rush defense that is far below past Gary Patterson units. The Horned Frog secondary is talented, but it will be interesting to see how they fare against this Oklahoma receiver group. Marvin Mims had a real coming out party against Texas, but he's only one of a loaded corps that includes Drake Stoops, Theo Wease, Jadon Hasselwood, and dynamo Mario Williams. Williams was pretty quiet last weekend, but he's the type of playmaker that can break open games. I have a feeling that Riley and the rest of the offensive staff will work to get him the ball on Saturday.

The TCU offense has put up solid numbers this year, but they are fairly one-dimensional, relying heavily on the ground attack. It's understandable why that is; sophomore back Zach Evans is one of the most talented anywhere in the nation and has four straight games with over 100 yards. However, Evans is listed as questionable for this one after taking a beating against Texas Tech, which could really spell trouble for the Horned Frogs. Backup Kendre Miller has been a great story this fall, but he simply isn't the type of game-changer that Evans is. Quarterback Max Duggan is a dangerous dual threat who has shown improved passing numbers this fall, with a higher completion percentage and a cut in turnovers. But, is Duggan going to be able to take advantage of a shaky Oklahoma secondary? TCU has never leaned on him to throw the ball consistently but this is the type of game you'd like a veteran QB to show up in. He does have some interesting weapons to work with, including versatile Taye Barber and rock-solid Derius Davis, but there's concerns here as well. Home run threat Quentin Johnston missed the Texas Tech game and is also listed as questionable. Without him, TCU might not have the down-the-field playmaking to keep up with the Sooners.

If this was a road game for Oklahoma after the emotional win over Texas, I would really like TCU's upset potential. This is a good football team with veteran experience across the offense, but the defense has been killed by the big play all season. It's tough to imagine them going into Norman, with both Evans and Johnston hurt, and coming away with a Top 5 win.

The Pick: Oklahoma, 41 TCU, 24


Other Picks

(#19) BYU, 28 Baylor, 24 -- Even though this is a road game for BYU, I really like their chances. The offense should be able to find its rhythm after a down week and the defense is better than what they showed against Boise. They win the Jeff Grimes bowl this year (Grimes was the BYU OC last fall, now currently in the same position at Baylor).

(#13) Ole Miss, 49 Tennessee, 38 -- The scoreboard operators are going to be busy in this one. Both offenses are absolutely flaming hot entering Saturday, but Matt Corral gives Ole Miss the clear edge.

(#5) Alabama, 35 Mississippi State, 20 -- The Tide have plenty to figure out on both sides of the ball, but I don't see them dropping to another unranked SEC West foe. Mississippi State has no answer for Jameson Williams and John Metchie on the perimeter.

(#3) Cincinnati, 34 UCF, 17 -- Prior to the season, UCF looked like Cincinnati's greatest threat inside the ACC. But, that was before the Knights lost star QB Dillon Gabriel, which has left their offense searching for answers. It's hard to see them scoring enough to pull off the massive upset at this spot.

Upset: Utah, 28 Arizona State, 23 -- Since making the change to Cam Rising at quarterback, Utah's offense has looked significantly improved. They're a tough out no matter what, but in Salt Lake City? This feels like a classic "Pac-12 After Dark" upset.

Superdog (covers > 21 spread): UL-Monroe (+32.5) vs. Liberty -- I was successful in picking Louisiana-Monroe as a superdog earlier in the year against Troy and I like them to cover in this one. Liberty has one of the nation's best QBs in Malik Willis, but what are the other offensive pieces that scare you? The Warhawks will lose, but that's a big number.

Monday, October 11, 2021

2021 Post-Week Six CFB Roundup

 

Caleb Williams, Oklahoma

Reactions & Thoughts

We're Witnessing A Special CFB Season: After the abbreviated 2020 college football season, just a normal 2021 would have felt particularly gratifying for the sport's diehards. Through a month and a half of football, this season has delivered on that, plus so much more. Every single week, it feels like anybody could lose to anybody, and division title races, conference title races, and the CFB Playoff are all shifting in real time. Simply look at the slate we had this weekend: Oklahoma and Texas squared off in a Red River for the ages, Arkansas and Ole Miss had a thrilling, high-scoring SEC West duel, Iowa and Penn State delivered an exciting game, and then Texas A&M toppled Alabama, handing Nick Saban his first loss ever against a former assistant. The amount of chaos we've seen in just six weeks rivals anything seen in our lifetimes, even the illustrious, wacky 2007 season. It will still take a bit to reach those levels, but this year has a completely different feeling to it. All I can say is we should all buckle up and enjoy the ride, because the next six weeks are going to go even faster than the first six.

Caleb Williams Is The Real Deal: Even though he was one of the nation's top recruits in the Class of 2021, nobody expected to see much of Caleb Williams this fall. However, with the preseason Heisman favorite, Spencer Rattler, continuing to struggle, Lincoln Riley turned to Williams and he delivered. The true freshman led Sooners on a spirited comeback from down three touchdowns, completing a host of difficult throws in the process. He would finish with 212 yards and two touchdowns, as Oklahoma stayed undefeated with a 55-48 victory. It felt like a turning point for Oklahoma, who was my preseason National Title pick, as they moved on from Rattler, finally opening up their offense to reach its full potential. One would assume Williams now takes over as the full-time starter, and he gets a great opportunity to further acclimate to the role, as the schedule is pretty favorable to end October. The interesting question is what happens with Rattler, who was the preseason darling but hasn't fully lived up to his potential. Does he sit on the bench and take his chances in the 2022 NFL Draft? Does he transfer right away? His fall has been one of the most surprising storylines of the 2021 college football season.

Is Arizona State The Pac-12's Best Hope?: After Oregon was upset by Stanford last weekend, the conference felt wide-open once again, as it has for most of this decade. The Ducks still command a lead in the league's North Division but Arizona State's win over UCLA last weekend seemed to assert them as the South Division favorite. In Week Six, they had a potential trap game possibility when they played Stanford late on a Friday, in a possible "Pac 12 After Dark" chaos game. But, the Sun Devils never let the Cardinal into the game and handled them with ease, winning 28-10. At 5-1, Arizona State becomes an interesting player in the CFB Playoff race. Their lone loss was a sloppy loss to BYU, but the Cougars have beaten several other Power Five schools and are not a terrible loss to move forward with. If ASU can keep their hot streak going, they certainly do become a factor down the stretch. In fact, they may be a better bet than Oregon for a New Year's Six bowl, considering they have a much better quarterback, and have yet to lose in the league.

About Alabama: Alabama's loss to Texas A&M snapped several impressive streaks they had been building for years: a 19-game win streak, the first loss to a former Saban assistant, and the first loss to an unranked foe since 2007. It was possibly the most shocking upset of the Saban era; while Texas A&M has been attempting to close the gap in the division for awhile, they came into this game with zero momentum and a backup QB, Zach Calzada, struggling. Calzada put together the performance of his life, and the Aggies answered every single time it looked like the Crimson Tide were going to take control of the game. It was a program-defining victory for Jimbo Fisher and the entire A&M staff, even if they still are likely out of serious contention in the SEC. As for Alabama, it was a wakeup call that this 2021 team is no 2020 group. The offense is good, but not elite, and the defense has been surprisingly bad this season, even though it was supposed to be one of the best Alabama groups in recent memory. I still get the feeling this team will play themselves into the Playoff, but they are clearly beatable. They realistically could have two losses at this point in mid-October, and the end of season stretch is no breeze.

So Is Tennessee...Actually Decent?: Following another tumultuous off-season on Rocky Top, which resulted in the firing of Jeremy Pruitt and his entire staff, not a ton was expected of Tennessee in 2021. Sure, head coach Josh Heupel might be able to provide some offensive fireworks, but this was still likely a SEC bottom-feeder, particularly with the mass exodus they suffered through following Pruitt's firing. However, the 2021 edition of Tennessee football was been actually pretty good and dare I say, fun? They had another impressive offensive outing this Saturday against South Carolina, putting up 472 yards of total offense and moving to 4-2 on the season. Former Virginia Tech transfer Hendon Hooker has been a game-changer for the offense after taking over for Joe Milton, while junior tailback Tiyon Evans is starting to emerge as one of the best in the league. The Volunteers now enter a stretch of four straight ranked opponents before concluding the season with South Alabama and Vanderbilt. At worst, they look like a 6-6 and bowl team, but they're feisty enough to pull off an upset or two. Getting to the seven-win plateau with the off-season they had should earn Heupel serious SEC Coach of the Year consideration.


Weekly Awards

Offensive Helmet Sticker: Zach Calzada, QB, Texas A&M

Zach Calzada entered the meeting with Alabama struggling mightily, completing just 54% of his passes. There was little expected of him, even at home, but the young quarterback came out and had the performance of a lifetime. Sure, his stat-line doesn't necessarily jump out at you, but throwing for 285 yards and three touchdowns against the Tide defense is nothing to shrug off. It wasn't just the numbers, but the guts he had to make some extremely difficult throws in order to secure the victory. It's one thing to help pull off the miraculous upset, but another thing to do it as a backup QB. 

Defensive Helmet Sticker: Jermaine Johnson, DE, Florida State

There might not be a more impactful transfer on the defensive side of the ball to this point than Jermaine Johnson of Florida State. The former JUCO product came over from Georgia and has been nearly un-blockable for the Seminoles, leading the ACC in sacks, with seven. He continued his dominance over the weekend, as he managed six tackles and one sack, while adding a QB hit. Johnson kept Sam Howell uncomfortable the entire night, playing a pivotal role in Florida State's upset of UNC for the second year in a row. Florida State, who began the year 0-4, now becomes an interesting bowl possibility down the stretch, especially with how weird the ACC has been in 2021.

Team of the Week: Texas A&M Aggies

Any time a team is able to conquer the Alabama Crimson Tide, it's noteworthy. However, Texas A&M's victory felt even more shocking than most Tide defeats, even if the game was at Kyle Field. The Aggies entered the game with two consecutive losses, including a putrid showing against Mississippi State the week prior. They had a backup QB, Calzada, and were extremely beat up across the offensive line, the receiver corps, and in the secondary. In fact, A&M had to play a pair of freshman offensive linemen against an Alabama pass rush full of future NFL defenders, and they managed to keep Calzada as clean as possible. Even with those things working against, the Aggies jumped out to an early lead and then held on the rest of the way. To answer every single time it looked like 'Bama might sneak back into the game is a testament to the work Jimbo and this staff have done in building this roster, and what these players have achieved here. I don't think this suddenly makes A&M a serious contender in the SEC West, but it was a program-altering win that showed they're here to stay on the national scene.

"Small-School" Team of the Week: Villanova Wildcats

Although they still be known primarily as a basketball school by most sports fans, Villanova continues to prove their worth on the gridiron. They defeated No. 2 James Madison over the weekend to improve to 4-1, with their lone loss on the season coming to Penn State. It wasn't a particularly special performance by the Wildcats, but was all about good solid defense, methodical offense, and not turning the ball over. After falling behind to the Dukes at halftime, Villanova scored the final 12 points of the game to come out on top 28-27. They now move up to No. 6 in the latest FCS poll and become the co-favorites of the Colonial Athletic Association with undefeated Rhode Island.


Top 25

Current Rank_________Previous Rank

1. Georgia Bulldogs    (2)

2. Iowa Hawkeyes    (3)

3. Oklahoma Sooners    (5)

4. Cincinnati Bearcats    (4)

5. Alabama Crimson Tide    (1)

6. Oregon Ducks    (7)

7. Ohio State Buckeyes    (8)

8. Michigan Wolverines    (9)

9. Penn State Nittany Lions    (6)

10. Michigan State Spartans    (12)

11. Notre Dame Fighting Irish    (11)

12. Arizona State Sun Devils    (14)

13. Oklahoma State Cowboys    (13)

14. Ole Miss Rebels    (17)

15. Kentucky Wildcats    (18)

16. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers    (16)

17. Wake Forest Demon Deacons    (19)

18. BYU Cougars    (10)

19. Florida Gators    (20)

20. NC State Wolfpack    (21)

21. Clemson Tigers    (22)

22. Iowa State Cyclones    (23)

23. SMU Mustangs    (25)

24. Texas A&M Aggies    (NR)

25. UTSA Roadrunners    (NR)

Just Missed: Arkansas Razorbacks, San Diego State Aztecs, Baylor Bears, Texas Longhorns, Boston College Eagles, Liberty Flames

Dropped Out: Arkansas Razorbacks (15), Texas Longhorns (24)