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| March Madness 2026 |
Midwest Region (Chicago)
1 Michigan Wolverines (Top Overall Seed)
16 Howard Bison / Wright State Raiders
Notes: Between Arizona losing back-to-back games last week and Michigan further padding their resume with a win at Mackey Arena over Purdue, the Wolverines are the clear team to beat nationally as things stand in mid-February. Only one blemish is on the schedule: a shocking loss to Wisconsin in Ann Arbor. And, while surprising, it's certainly not a bad one for Michigan given the Badgers have been one of the hottest teams in the country over the last month. With plenty of opportunities to further bolster their resume down the stretch, the Wolverines are starting to feel like a lock on the one-seed line.
8 Auburn Tigers
9 NC State Wolfpack
Notes: Steven Pearl has taken his lumps in his first season as Auburn head man, with the Tigers sitting at 14-11 overall and 5-7 inside the SEC. However, wins over St. John's, Florida, and Arkansas keep the Tigers on the right side of the bubble. Only one ranked foe remains on the schedule, so there is little margin for error for this team over the next month.
5 Kentucky Wildcats
12 Belmont Bruins
Notes: Mark Pope's team keeps rising up the totem pole and lands at the five spot here, but the upset-minded Belmont Bruins would be a tough matchup. The Bruins have long been one of the most consistent mid-majors in the country, but Casey Alexander hasn't taken the program to an NCAA Tournament yet despite seven straight seasons of at least 20 wins. They are the clear favorite in the Missouri Valley, with a 14-3 conference mark with three regular season games remaining.
4 Virginia Cavaliers
13 East Tennessee State Buccaneers
Notes: Ryan Odom is in the running for National Coach of the Year with the job he's done in Charlottesville, with Virginia still in the ACC Title picture. The game against Duke on February 28 could very well decide the league. Even if UVA isn't able to down the mighty Blue Devils, they seem destined to land somewhere in the 3-5 range, assuming things don't fall off the rails down the stretch. North Carolina and Virginia Tech on the road remain their only two ACC losses.
6 Tennessee Volunteers
11 VCU Rams / TCU Horned Frogs
Notes: This will be an important four-game stretch for VCU, who find themselves firmly on the bubble. The Rams have come up just short in all four Quad 1 games they've played this season, but still have George Mason and Saint Louis on their remaining schedules. Even if they split, an Atlantic 10 Tournament run and help elsewhere could be enough to gain them entry into the field.
3 Texas Tech Red Raiders
14 North Dakota State Bison
Notes: A win over Arizona on the road last week raised the profile of Texas Tech, but the news on Wednesday was a major blow to Grant McCasland's teams National Title hopes. Star forward J.T. Toppin suffered a torn ACL in the loss to Arizona State, robbing the Red Raiders of their top scorer, rebounder, and shot-blocker. This is a team with a fun backcourt that can shoot the lights out, but the depth in the frontcourt was already a concern prior to the Toppin injury. They've built a strong resume to land around this range, but the entire trajectory of the season has changed in short order.
7 Saint Louis Billikens
10 Saint Mary's Gaels
Notes: A loss on Tuesday night for Saint Louis, their first of the season in the Atlantic 10, could threaten to knock them down the seed lines. They're still projected somewhere in the 6-8 range, but things could get volatile depending on how the season closes. Big man Robbie Avila is going to become a March sensation, but he's far from the only reason to tune into this team. They feature one of the most explosive offenses in the country, a group that averages nearly 91 per contest.
2 Iowa State Cyclones
15 Navy Midshipmen
Notes: Could Iowa State battle their way on to the one line? Their win over Houston on Monday night certainly has them looking up, but they may need to do more to get over the hump. I don't think they'd complain about the path in the bottom of this region, starting with the projected Patriot League Champion Navy Midshipmen.
South Region (Houston)
1 UConn Huskies
16 Appalachian State Mountaineers / Merrimack Warriors
Notes: A loss at Madison Square Garden to St. John's was the first defeat UConn had suffered in two-and-a-half months, since they came up short at home to Arizona in mid-November. Needless to say, Dan Hurley has a team here in Storrs with all the ingredients to bring home his third National Title. Another meeting with Rick Pitino and the Red Storm looms, this time back home at Gampel Pavilion.
8 Iowa Hawkeyes
9 SMU Mustangs
Notes: SMU is still firmly on the bubble, but the Mustangs got a huge victory this week by taking down Louisville at home. That's enough to move them up a seed line, but there can't be any hangover for Andy Enfield's club. The schedule the rest of the way is extremely favorable, with a road trip to Cal and a home meeting with Miami standing as the two greatest roadblocks.
5 North Carolina Tar Heels
12 Liberty Flames
Notes: How much does the Caleb Wilson injury impact North Carolina's seed? Of course, there's plenty of time left to figure this out, and rumor is Wilson is rehabbing well from a fractured hand suffered in a loss to Miami. But when you consider just how crucial Wilson is to this Tar Heel team, there has to be some unease around Chapel Hill as the team enters an important stretch. An ugly loss to NC State on the road Tuesday night wasn't a particularly encouraging sign, a game in which the Heels shot just 32% from the field.
4 Michigan State Spartans
13 High Point Panthers
Notes: 2025 was High Point's first ever NCAA Tournament appearance, and the Panthers are in great position to return to the Big Dance again this March. They're 24-4 overall and 12-1 in the Big South Conference. Their lone defeat inside the conference came to Winthrop, who is breathing right down the backs in the standings, with the two set to collide again over the weekend. Getting back senior Cam'Ron Fletcher after a prolonged absence is huge for the Panthers - the veteran has had a long and strange college career, but is having an impressive year, averaging 14.3 PPG.
6 Vanderbilt Commodores
11 UCLA Bruins
Notes: This is an incredibly balanced Vanderbilt team that's shaping up nicely to land a top four seed. However, the remaining schedule does offer some landmines, as they still need to face rival Tennessee twice, Kentucky on the road, and Georgia at home. The Oklahoma home loss, albeit by just one point, could drop them down a seed line.
3 Nebraska Cornhuskers
14 Yale Bulldogs
Notes: Fred Hoiberg's team has a built a stellar resume en route to a 22-4 overall start, but it's fair to have some questions about the Cornhuskers as we hit the home stretch. A loss to Iowa made it four losses in their last six games, albeit with three of those coming to ranked foes. Still, Hoiberg and the 'Huskers have earned some good will with a resume that already includes wins over Illinois, Michigan State, and Wisconsin by 30. The schedule is soft enough the rest of the way for this team to recover in time for a postseason run.
7 Clemson Tigers
10 Texas Longhorns
Notes: A 5-6 mark against Quad 1 teams has Texas in nice position to be on the right side of the bubble come Selection Sunday, and their win over Missouri on the road over the weekend was huge. The schedule the rest of the way is tricky, with a pair of ranked teams remaining, and a road trip to College Station. Yet, this could be a positive for the Longhorns, offering them chances to strengthen their NCAA Tournament case, so that SEC Tournament results may not end up mattering.
2 Kansas Jayhawks
15 Austin Peay Governors
Notes: All eyes are going to be on Darryn Peterson as he wraps up what is certainly his first and final season of college basketball, but that really discredits the rest of this Jayhawk supporting cast. Flory Bidunga has been one of the best bigs anywhere in the country over the last month, and veteran Melvin Council Jr. is what makes this Kansas offense run. His 23 points, six boards, and six assists were crucial to their upset of then-No. 1 Arizona.
East Region (Washington D.C.)
1 Duke Blue Devils
16 Bethune-Cookman Wildcats
Notes: Duke's meeting with Michigan this weekend, which coincidentally happens to be in Washington D.C., could ultimately determine the top overall seed come Selection Sunday. The Blue Devils have lost just two games this season... by a combined four points. This team may actually be better than last year's Cooper Flagg-led squad, with the Michigan matchup an opportunity to prove it in a rare late-season non-conference duel.
8 Villanova Wildcats
9 Miami (Ohio) Redhawks
Notes: The final remaining undefeated in college basketball resides in Oxford, Ohio. The Miami Ohio Redhawks are off to a 26-0 start and flawless 13-0 mark inside the MAC, thanks in large part to one of the highest-scoring offenses in the nation. The elephant in the room is that the schedule is one of the worst in the nation - there's a very good chance they won't end up facing another NCAA Tournament team all season. I don't think that diminishes what this team has done this season, but it does leave them in a precarious position in the eyes of the Selection Committee. If they don't win the MAC Tournament, they likely find themselves on the outside looking in when it comes to The Big Dance.
5 Wisconsin Badgers
12 South Florida Bulls
Notes: The Badgers have taken their lumps this season, but no team has a more impressive top of their resume than this one. At the end of the day, they're the only team in all of college basketball that has beaten the top-seeded Michigan Wolverines! Wins against Illinois and Michigan State further strengthen their case, and the schedule sets up nicely for them to keep rising up the seed lines.
4 St. John's Red Storm
13 Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
Notes: The Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks once had a home in the NCAA Tournament, going to the Big Dance four times in five seasons from 2014-2018. They haven't made a return since and after a strange three-year run in the WAC, they're back in their longtime home of the Southland Conference. If they can fend off McNeese, who they split the regular season series with, they have a great shot at landing in that upset-ready 12-14 seed range.
6 Louisville Cardinals
11 Texas A&M Aggies
Notes: It's been a strong debut campaign for Bucky McMillan at Texas A&M, but this is another team trending down at the wrong time. A win over Ole Miss earlier in the week snapped a four-game skid, made worse by the fact one of the defeats came to fellow bubble team Missouri. This is always going to be a team that is going to lean on their offense under McMillan, but the defense has to figure out some form of resistance over the final month of the regular season. During that four-game skid, they allowed 82 points or worse in each, including 100 on the road to Alabama.
3 Florida Gators
14 UMBC Retrievers
Notes: The reigning National Champion Florida Gators are in good position to land the highest seed in the SEC. Their non-conference schedule was brutal, but they sit now 11-2 inside the SEC, with victories over Vanderbilt, Kentucky, and Alabama. Arkansas to wrap up the month could be an interesting one, featuring a fun guard battle between Darius Acuff Jr. and Xavian Lee.
7 Alabama Crimson Tide
10 UCF Knights
Notes: UCF hasn't played in the NCAA Tournament since Tacko Fall was on the roster back in 2019, but Johnny Dawkins' club has really slid under the radar nicely inside the Big 12. They are over .500 inside the league, 18-7 overall, and own wins over Kansas and Texas Tech, plus Texas A&M in the non-conference. This has the feels of a team that could surprise quite a few folks by stringing together a couple of wins and reaching the second weekend.
2 Purdue Boilermakers
15 UT Martin Skyhawks
Notes: The preseason No. 1 Boilermakers sit right on the edge between the two and three seed, but I have a sneaking suspicion this team is going to finish the year strong. This is a much better team than we've seen through the meat of the Big Ten schedule, and their toughest three games remaining all come in Mackey Arena: Indiana, Michigan State, and Wisconsin.
West Region (San Jose)
1 Arizona Wildcats
16 California Baptist Lancers
Notes: We could see a new NCAA Tournament entrant this year in the form of the California Baptist Lancers. A former Division II powerhouse, the Lancers began playing at the Division I level in 2018-2019, and have their best team yet under head man Rick Croy. They are in good position to take the WAC in the final year of the conference before it transitions to the United Athletic Conference.
8 Miami Hurricanes
9 Georgia Bulldogs
Notes: Miami head coach Jai Lucas should be a National Coach of the Year contender with the work he's done in Coral Gables. He took over a team that went a lowly 7-24 in 2024-25 between Jim Laranaga and interim Bill Courtney, and has the 'Canes currently at 21-5 (10-3 ACC). They've worked themselves off the bubble with an impressive four-game win streak, including resume-boosting wins over North Carolina and NC State.
5 Arkansas Razorbacks
12 UNC Wilmington Seahawks
Notes: Arkansas put it together last season to make it to the NCAA Tournament's second weekend, but it's no secret John Calipari has some March demons to excise. Prior to the two wins last year, he had not advanced to the second weekend since before COVID, back in 2019. He has not made the Final Four since 2015. This is a supremely talented Razorback team, with one of the best lead guards Calipari has had in some time in Darius Acuff Jr. This team may just be the one to make the deep March run he so covets.
4 Gonzaga Bulldogs
13 Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
Notes: It's the final year in the WCC for Mark Few and Gonzaga, but the same old, same old. They've dominated the league in their farewell tour, with a 13-1 mark. Interestingly enough, they didn't lose to a Saint Mary's or Santa Clara - it was the Portland Pilots who pulled off the shocker at home in front of an announced crowd of just over 3,300.
6 BYU Cougars
11 San Diego State Aztecs / Santa Clara Broncos
Notes: This may be a bit of a biased selection in the potential "First Four" game - I would love to see Santa Clara in the field. The only team they've lost to inside the WCC is the Gonzaga Bulldogs, with a win at home over Saint Mary's very much bolstering their case. If they go on the road and take down the Gaels, it could be the type of win that sneaks them into the field. Herb Sendek has done a really underrated job here - this is their fifth straight season of at least 20 wins.
3 Illinois Fighting Illini
14 Long Island University Sharks
Notes: Back-to-back losses to Wisconsin and Michigan State knock Illinois off the No. 2 seed line, but Brad Underwood's club is in great position the rest of the way. They should cruise to wins in four of their next five games, with Michigan looming as the one game they aren't going to be favored in. The two have yet to meet in 2025-26 - can the Illini spring the upset?
7 Utah State Aggies
10 Indiana Hoosiers
Notes: Utah State may end up being the only Mountain West team in the field this year, with San Diego State and New Mexico firmly on the bubble as things stand today. Head coach Jerod Calhoun is going to be a popular name for bigger jobs over the offseason, but he's got unfinished business with the Aggies. Junior guard Mason Falslev is one of my favorite players in all of college basketball, a three-point sniper who is also a relentless pest on the defensive end.
2 Houston Cougars
15 Portland State Vikings
Notes: Kelvin Sampson's teams just keep on winning in the Big 12, but this year's group has a bit of a different feel to it. The Cougars will always have a defense-first identity, but this team can really score, with freshman phenom Kingston Flemings and fearless veteran Emmanuel Sharp leading the way. Houston was my National Title pick last year and after coming up just short, they certainly have the pieces to finish the job in 2026.
Updated Through: morning of 2/18/2026
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