NCAA Basketball National Championship Prediction 2018

Donte DiVincenzo, Villanova

After one of the craziest college basketball seasons in recent memory we have arrived at the finale: a clash between one-seeded Villanova and the three seed, Michigan. Villanova has been on of the rare constants in such a wild season, going 35-4 and rolling past teams en route to their National Championship berth, which included a stomping of Kansas in the Final Four. Meanwhile, Michigan has been less consistent, but there is no denying the great basketball they are playing. Following a thrilling, buzzer-beating win over Houston in the second round, the Wolverines have been on a mission, and come in to this one two days after ending Loyola-Chicago's miraculous run. This game is sure to keep scoreboard operators busy, and sure to be competitive, but only one will be crowned National Champs.

Even though they rarely reel in high-profile recruits (with some exceptions) and aren't the biggest name in the sport, there is no denying how much of a power Villanova has become. Head coach Jay Wright has had the Wildcats as the class of the Big East consistently for some time now, and now they stand just forty minutes away from their second National Title in three years. Wright has a roster well-suited for modern basketball, with an astounding amount of versatility and balance. Nearly every single player on this roster can shoot, and all help this team succeed in different ways. Point guard Jalen Brunson, the National Player of the Year, is the clear leader of this team. Brunson isn't a very flashy player and as Michigan coach John Belein explained, "He plays like an old man." Yet, he is extremely effective at creating for his teammates and using his craftiness to finish around the rim. Joining Brunson is a fantastic supporting cast that boasts big man Omari Spellman, swingman Mikal Bridges and underrated Donte DiVincenzo. Spellman is Villanova's most traditional big, but the youngster still can shoot and space the floor. He will be a tough matchup for whoever guards him, most likely the Wolverines' star big, Mo Wagner. Bridges and DiVincenzo are great offensive weapons, but their defense may be the most important thing for 'Nova here. Michigan's great selection of guards and wings will be incredibly hard to contain unless Bridges and DiVincenzo can slow them down significantly. Beyond that, Villanova does have some other weapons, but overall this team is not necessarily incredibly deep. So far, it hasn't hurt them in this Tournament, but it will be intriguing to see if Michigan, a team that loves to run, can exploit that lack of depth.

For Michigan, much of their success this year can be attributed to the addition of Kentucky transfer Charles Matthews and the improvement of Wagner and guard Zavier Simpson. Matthews was known primarily as a defender prior to arriving in Ann Arbor, but his size and strength has helped him evolve into a really dangerous offensive player. Wagner decided not to go to the NBA despite interest last off-season and the German center has shown an improved jump shot and better feel around the rim. And then there is Simpson, who combined with veteran Muhammed-Ali Abdur-Rakham give the Wolverines two incredible athletes that can score in a variety of ways. All of those guys should play a huge role, but the X-factors reside in the frontcourt, primarily Wagner and forward Duncan Robinson. Considering Villanova's lack of size, Wagner has the chance to have a huge day, especially if he can get Spellman in foul trouble early. Robinson, who started his college basketball career at the D3 level, is a sharpshooting four that really opens up this offense when he is playing well. However, Robinson has not had a great Tournament, and Michigan has really struggled when he has had issues. If the senior can play well and hit some big threes, it gives Michigan a chance to keep up with Villanova's terrific shooters.

Last year, Gonzaga-North Carolina had a Championship Game that felt incredibly old school. It was a very slow-paced game that was run through the post, reminiscent of a college basketball game decades ago, when dominant big men were the norm. That is not going to be the case this year as these two teams represent where the sport is going today: lots of threes and lots of shooting. Michigan probably will try and slow things down a bit to keep up with Villanova offensively, but this is still a game where both could drop 80-plus. It is also a battle that features two coaches who have been here before, and are some of the best in the business. Despite the momentum Michigan has built and their advantage of size and depth, Villanova is the pick here. The way Villanova is playing they look unstoppable, and picking against them just seems foolish. In a sport where parity reigns supreme, the 'Cats look poised to win their second National Title in three seasons.

Final Four Picks 2018

Malik Newman, Kansas

3 Michigan Wolverines vs. 11 Loyola-Chicago Ramblers
Becoming just the third 11 seed to make it to the Final Four, Loyola-Chicago will try to do what the other two couldn't: win. George Mason and VCU, the other two, both were overmatched and saw their Cinderella runs continue, but I wouldn't overlook this Ramblers team as they prepare for Michigan, the West Region winner. Loyola has a balanced, well-rounded starting five that has great chemistry. Guards Ben Richardson and Clayton Custer have been playing together since high school, and big man Cameron Krutwig is a load to handle inside. This is not a team with an explosive offense, but an efficient one. They might not have the star power Michigan has at spots, but they should be able to keep up offensively. UM will be an obvious challenge for this Loyola defense, with a lot of versatility and a variety of weapons. Mo Wagner is the team's best player when he is on, and he works well with the Wolverines many different guards, namely veteran Muhammed-Ali Abur-Rakham and Kentucky transfer Charles Matthews. It will be interesting to see whether the Ramblers, who are not a very tall team overall, can match Michigan's size inside with Wagner and their length on the wing. Depth is also going to be a factor this late in the Tournament. While these teams have had a week to rest up, having fresher legs is obviously a huge advantage. Loyola does not have the depth Michigan has, and it will be interesting to see how that plays out over 40 minutes, especially when foul trouble comes into play. Loyola-Chicago has been maybe the coolest sports story of 2018 up to this point, but I think the magic will come to an end in San Antonio. Michigan is probably the best offensive team they've seen this Tournament, and the Wolverines have been flaming hot from three in their last two games. If they continue that trend and limit their turnovers, there should be no stopping Michigan from returning to their first National Championship Game since 2013.
Michigan by ten

1 Villanova Wildcats vs. 1 Kansas Jayhawks
While Virginia and Xavier both succumbed to upsets early in the Tournament, the other one seeds proved to be quite tough to finish. Villanova has not faced an easy road to get to the Final Four, but they have showed grit in grinding out tough wins over Texas Tech and West Virginia. Meanwhile, Kansas had to overcome an incredibly talented Duke squad to reach their first Final Four since the 2011-2012 team, which was overpowered by Kentucky in the National Championship. Villanova is the nation's best offensive team, even though they haven't shot the ball great over their last two games. Recently crowned Player of the Year Jalen Brunson is the engine that makes it all run smoothly. Swingman Mikal Bridges, versatile big Omari Spellman and Fordham transfer Eric Paschall are all huge contributors as well, and can all hit the three-ball at an impressive clip. Villanova presents quite the challenge for a Kansas defense that has been good, but not great, for much of the year. This is not a very big KU team, with very little experience in some places. They are especially thin in their frontline, where center Udoka Azuikbe has had knee problems, and freshman Silvio De Sousa has only been on campus since mid-January. Guards Malik Newman and Svi Mykhailiuk have had to play out of position for much of the season and have done a fine job. However, their lack of size and lack of much depth is something 'Nova could exploit, particularly considering it is one of their strengths. What will be very interesting to watch will be the point guard clash between Devonte Graham and Brunson. Graham is coming off a Big 12 Player of the Year season and has been one of the biggest factors to the Jayhawks' success all year long. Both are crafty, fundamentally sound guards, but whoever has a better day gives their team a significant leg-up. It should be quite a fun one, seeing two of the sport's most consistent programs battle it out. Kansas has overcome a lot of obstacles to have another superb year under head man Bill Self and I would not put it past them to stay alive. However, Villanova has proven they can have off days and still beat great basketball teams (see Texas Tech). Even if the Wildcats experience rust from having a week off, they have the type of team that can overcome it. Kansas will need to have a wonderful day from three and big contributions from Azuikbe to make it a close one, but I don't see that happening. The 'Nova train rolls on, and prepares for a shot at a second National Title in three seasons.
Villanova by seven

Sweet 16 Picks: East Region, Midwest Region

Jevon Carter, West Virginia

East Region

1 Villanova Wildcats vs. 5 West Virginia Mountaineers
With two No. 1 seeds already out of the field, Villanova has taken over as many people's favorite to win it all out of the remaining 16. However, the Wildcats face quite a stiff test in this battle against fifth-seeded West Virginia, a team playing terrific basketball. The two sides both have different strengths: Villanova is an offensive juggernaut that shoots threes at an insane clip, while the Mountaineers still are led by their aggressive press defense and excellent rim protection from center Sagaba Konate. WVU star point guard Jevon Carter has had an illustrious career in Morgantown, and his constant ball pressure is enough to make even the most poised guards uncomfortable. Villanova is led by their star point guard of their own, Jalen Brunson, whose shown amazing poise and confidence all season long, ensuring it should be a fun matchup to watch. The Mountaineers will stay in every game because of their defense, but they are going to score if they have any shot at unseating the top seed in the region. Guard Daxter Miles and swingman Esa Ahmad have shown they can be major offensive contributors at times, and will have to continue to prove that. Even if they do, it is hard to pick against this 'Nova team, who is playing wonderful basketball. Brunson leads a sweet-shooting offense that can get big games from nearly everybody on the roster, including key playmakers Mikal Bridges and Donte DiVincenzo. Konate may be able to hold the Wildcats off from getting much success down low, but the Mountaineers may just not have enough offense to hang with Villanova, keeping the No. 1 seed chugging along.
Villanova by seven

2 Purdue Boilermakers vs. 3 Texas Tech Red Raiders
The last time Chris Beard faced off against Purdue in the NCAA Tournament, his Little Rock team came back from a huge deficit to complete a thriller against the Boilermakers, that still haunts Matt Painter today. Now, Beard will hope to lead his Texas Tech squad over Purdue once more, although this Boilermakers team is significantly better than the 2016 edition that lost in the first round. Missing center Isaac Haas, who fractured his elbow and is unlikely to return again in a Purdue uniform, hurts significantly but the Boilermakers got solid production in the second round from Netherlands product Matt Haarms. If forward Vince Edwards can stay out of foul trouble, Purdue should still maintain an advantage in the frontcourt and still be able to get some easy buckets. The backcourt battle in this one should be super fun to watch. Texas Tech point guard Keenan Evans is one of the most underrated players in the country, and is known for hitting big shots and playing physical defense. However, while the Red Raiders have one great guard, Purdue brings so much more to the table. Sophomore Carsen Edwards has balled out all season long, veteran P.J. Thompson is a steady presence and sharpshooter Dakota Mathias is a tough guard for anybody. One thing is certain in this one: don't expect a very pretty game of basketball to happen in Boston. Both teams play great, sound defense and love to slow the game down and grind it out. Not having their centerpiece, Haas, makes me very nervous about Purdue going forward but my National Runner-Up pick still has more than enough scoring and depth to overcome a stingy Red Raiders squad.
Purdue by eight

Midwest Region

1 Kansas Jayhawks vs. 5 Clemson Tigers
Clemson is never going to be known as a basketball school, but there is no denying the talent on this Tigers roster. Clemson sits at 25-9 after surviving the brutal ACC and showed just how dominant they have the potential to be, thrashing fourth-seeded Auburn in the second round. Beating Kansas is obviously a tall task, but I won't put it out of the realm of possibility with the way this Clemson team is playing. Versatile guards Marcquise Reed and Gabe DeVoe fuel the athletic Tigers' offense, and it will be interesting to see how they choose to attack a rock-solid Kansas defense. Expect Clemson to try to attack the post early and often here; KU has been extremely thin in the frontcourt all year long, and their stud center, Udoka Azuikbe, is still recovering from an MCL injury. On the other end, Kansas hopes this is a team that can meet lofty expectations, after past Bill Self teams have notoriously come up short. Having Big 12 Player of the Year Devonte Graham at point guard is a huge luxury. The senior has made a ton of big shots in his time with the Jayhawks, and has won a lot of games in March. He will have to be the guiding force for Kansas to continue any March run, as will Azuikbe and Ukrainian sharpshooter Svi Mykhailiuk. In order to hold off the Tigers, Kansas will have to have a big day from Graham and the vets, but also play loose basketball. In past NCAA Tournaments, KU teams have had a tendency to play tight and too conservative, which has really hurt them. If they can play smart and loose basketball, I like them to hold off this flaming hot Clemson team, although it should be tight.
Kansas by five

2 Duke Blue Devils vs. 11 Syracuse Orange
Despite being the final team that made it into the NCAA Tournament, Syracuse has managed to win three games and make it to the Sweet 16, where they get a shot at their ACC rival, Duke. Syracuse plays a very interesting brand of basketball. They still play their patented 2-3 zone defense, and look to out-grind the other team to win. This means slowing down the game to a snail's pace and crashing the glass early and often. It isn't very pretty, but it is clearly effective, as the Orange proved by crashing third-seeded Michigan State's party. Duke was able to overcome Syracuse earlier this season, so they should still be the favorite. Grayson Allen has looked good early this March, and big men Marvin Bagley III and Wendell Carter should be able to handle Syracuse's frontcourt physicality. The Blue Devils would also love more production from guard Gary Trent Jr., whose impressive shooting can really open things up for this offense, and should be able to stretch the zone. For 'Cuse, offensively, they will need their athletic guards to make plays. Frank Howard, Tyus Battle and Oshae Brissett are not the most efficient guards in the country but they are fabulous at attacking the rim and finishing in creative ways. They will really need to hit their shots, stay out of foul trouble (Howard fouled out against MSU) and force Duke's big men into foul trouble. This Syracuse team is looking eerily similar to the one that made a Final Four berth out of nowhere in '16, but I think the magic has to end sometime. They have been outplayed in at least two out of their three games this Tournament, and I don't think they will be able to overcome the rich amount of depth and talent that Duke possesses.
Duke by ten

Sweet 16 Picks: South Region, West Region

Donte Ingram, Loyola-Chicago

South Region

5 Kentucky Wildcats vs. 9 Kansas State Wildcats
After ending UMBC's Cinderella run this past weekend, quiet but effective Kansas State looks to keep on chugging against the top-remaining seed in the South Region: Kentucky. Kentucky has been playing superb basketball over the last few weeks, but this isn't a perfect team by any means. Swingman Kevin Knox has emerged as the team's top offensive option (15.6 PPG), while steady point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has also stepped up in a big way. The big question is down low, where this team still lacks a real presence on the low post. Youngsters Nick Richards and Jarred Vanderbilt are rock-solid on the glass, but Kansas State will still look to expose some of UK's frontcourt issues. K-State will also hope for a big day from their top two scorers, Dean Wade and Barry Brown. This is still a team that will lean more on their defense than the other side (allowed just 66.9 PPG this year) but Kansas State will need to score more than 48 points to defeat the other Wildcats. It will also be intriguing to see how well both of these sides shoot the ball from deep. Kansas State really struggled to shoot from downtown against UMBC, but they will need the three-pointer to really be open if they are to overcome a Kentucky squad with more talent and athleticism. I think Kentucky is certainly the team to beat in the South, but Kansas State is the type of team that plays hard and can compete with anyone. If they can play lockdown defense once more, I wouldn't rule out a nine seed upset here in the Sweet 16.
Kentucky by six

7 Nevada Wolfpack vs. 11 Loyola-Chicago Ramblers
Two of the coolest stories of this March will collide in Atlanta this weekend, as seventh-seeded Nevada squares off with Loyola-Chicago. The Wolfpack have made a living this Tournament coming off in miraculous ways, and are guided by a starting lineup, that amazingly, is comprised completely off transfers. The Martin twins, who came from NC State, are a two-headed offensive machine that can are streaky, but lethal when they're on. They may pose the toughest test this Ramblers' defense has seen in this field. For Loyola, the key to their success has been a guard-orientated offense and a team that plays best in clutch situations. Donte Ingram and Clayton Custer are two of the most underrated playmakers in the bracket, but it will be interesting to see how they attack Nevada's defense. The Wolfpack aren't an elite defensive team, but they have a lot of guys who can do great in the one-on-one and on the wing, but they have struggled to defend the paint. The Ramblers could choose to run their offense through the post more than usual, which will be interesting to see how they succeed. Nevada has been playing with fire all Tournament, and they have the talent to make their first Elite Eight appearance ever. However, I actually like Loyola's improbable March run to continue. They have the shooting, confidence and experience to get over the top here. It looks like the Ramblers run can continue, and the comeback kids at Nevada to finally have their luck catch up with them.
Loyola-Chicago by four

West Region

4 Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. 9 Florida State Seminoles
Gonzaga came up just a few points short of a National Title a season ago, and now they look to finish the job in 2018. This Bulldogs team isn't quite as strong overall as last year's edition, but they have some terrific shooters and really impressive athleticism in the frontcourt. Veteran guard Josh Perkins leads an extremely efficient and methodical offense, while forwards Jonathan Williams and Rui Hachimura will give Florida State some real difficulties with their versatility up front. This Seminoles team is coming off a great showing against Xavier, but it will be interesting to see whether they can keep it up. They have a ton of weapons in their backcourt that should really be able to challenge Gonzaga up and down the court, but can they continue their hot shooting? This FSU offense has been streaky and inconsistent throughout much of the year, so it's hard to know which edition with come out in Los Angeles. Up front, Florida State doesn't have much offense, and tends to lean more on their defense. Can that defense stand up to the tough test these Bulldog big men present? I wouldn't be surprised at all to see this Seminoles team move on, especially with the momentum they've created. With that being said, Gonzaga has the talent and depth to sink them, and make yet another Elite Eight trip.
Gonzaga by ten

3 Michigan Wolverines vs. 7 Texas A&M Aggies
If not for a miraculous last-second three-pointer by Jordan Poole to stun sixth-seeded Houston, the Big Ten Tournament Champion Michigan Wolverines would be sitting at home right now. However, they survived, and now see a wide-open West Region. Texas A&M will be quite the challenge here in the Sweet 16, as the Aggies are coming off a dominant showing against UNC. The thing that makes this A&M team so tough is they are so large and physical throughout their roster. Gigantic center Tyler Davis is a load to handle for anybody, NBA Draft prospect Robert Williams is an absolute tank, and guards D.J. Hogg and Admon Gilder constantly create mismatches. The Wolverines are not a great defensive team, and they could have a tough time handling the Aggies variety of weapons. Michigan does have plenty of offensive options they can counter with, namely a fantastic crop of guards. Veteran Muhammed-Ali Abdur-Rahkman has become so important for this team, while Kentucky transfer Charles Matthews and Jordan Poole can really be instant offense. The X-factor for this team, as it usually is, will be center Mo Wagner. When Wagner is playing well and the UM guards are spacing the floor, this offense is so tough to handle. Wagner will also have an important job containing Davis on the other end, as well as hanging with the Aggies on the glass. Even though they have had some issues this year, the way Texas A&M is playing, it is hard to pick against them. With that being said, Michigan has the offensive skill and is riding an emotional high after their thrilling second round victory, I still like my Final Four pick in the region to keep on surviving and advancing.
Michigan by three

Bracket Analysis: East Region

Jalen Brunson, Villanova

In a sport where parity rules, being a consistent winner is insanely tough. And yet, Villanova won the Big East conference tournament once again and enters this year's Tournament a No. 1 seed once more. The Wildcats are headed by a stern leader at point guard in junior Jalen Brunson, who runs the country's best offense (87.1 PPG). Brunson averages 19.4 PPG and 4.7 APG while shooting 53% from the field, and plays like a seasoned NBA veteran. Villanova also brings an explosive swingman to the table in Mikal Bridges, and they have their best frontcourt player in years in youngster Omari Spellman. This is the type of team with balance, depth and overall experience that usually does do good in March. But, it is always tough to get a read on 'Nova. With the exception of their impressive 2016 NCAA Tournament title run this has been a team that has consistently underperformed in the Big Dance. With Brunson and this offense's overall efficiency, you still feel confident about what they can do, but this is a region with plenty of peril. A second round matchup with possibly Alabama, who comes into the tourney flaming hot, is precarious as is possible future dates with West Virginia or Wichita State. Feel relatively confident about this Villanova team, but also be wary; its hard to know which Wildcats we are going to get in March.

Nowadays, its hard to consider Wichita State a dark horse, but this team is not getting much attention going into this year's NCAA Tournament. The Selection Committee clearly respects them more since their move from the Missouri Valley to the American Athletic Conference, as evidenced by their four seed. The upgrade in conference play should really help the Shockers come this March, giving them valuable experience against some great teams and helping in overall preparation. The interesting thing about this Wichita team is that they are much more offensive-orientated than in year's past. Head coach Gregg Marshall has long prided himself on having stout defenses, but this Shocker offense averages 83.0 PPG (tied for 19th in the nation) and they spread the ball as well as anybody, with 18.5 assists per game. Key to that offensive success has been the growth of guard Landry Shamet and the overall much better shooting from the perimeter, which has only opened up things. Wichita State is always going to be a tough team because they play so hard and are so good defensively and on the glass. It will be very intriguing to see how this new offensive-led team fares in March. I actually like the Shockers to move deep into this field. They should be able to fend off Marshall, and West Virginia and I wouldn't be surprised at all to see them knock off top-seeded Villanova.

After holding off UCLA in a "First Four" battle last night, keep an eye on St. Bonaventure as a possible dark horse in this region. The Bonnies are led by one of the country's best backcourts, with seniors Jaylen Adams and Matt Mobley, who combine for nearly 38 points per game. Last night, however, we saw junior forward Courtney Stockard step up in a big way, as he dropped 26 points and was a demon on defense with four steals. Having another option step up offensively could make this St. Bonaventure particularly dangerous. This team was able to beat UCLA with a very off game from Adams, who is one of the most underrated players in the entire country, which certainly bodes well for their future. Opening up against Florida is also great news for this Bonnies squad. The Gators are a quality basketball team with plenty of talent, but they aren't a very good defensive team nor very depth, which could leave them exposed to a classic 6-11 upset. From that point on, third-seeded Texas Tech is perhaps the weakest three seed in the field, setting up a golden opportunity for St. Bonaventure. We usually see at least one or two double-digit seeds sneak into the Sweet 16 if not further, and I would not be surprised in the slightest if this Bonnies squad does just that.

If you were to pick an ideal roster makeup for a college basketball team, Purdue would probably be it. They have the perfect blend of size, three-point shooting and just overall experience that any coach would kill to have. The size comes in the form of seven-footers Isaac Haas and Matt Haarns, who constantly disrupt shots and can really be a pain to stop on the low block. The shooting comes from sniper Dakota Mathias, who is deadly coming off creatively placed screens, along with explosive guard Carsen Edwards, who made the All-Big Ten team as a sophomore. Then, there is just the experience this lineup possesses. Haas, Mathias and swingman Vince Edwards are all seniors who have played in and won NCAA Tournament games, an obvious advantage come this time of year. The biggest question on this team? Probably coaching. Matt Painter is a great coach and has proven it time and time again, but he has yet to lead a Boilermakers team past the Sweet 16 and has had a few memorable collapses (see Little Rock, 2016). Even so, this Purdue team is one of the teams I feel most confident about in a field where it is hard to feel confident about anyone. Their shooting, experience and versatility are all going to be key to a deep NCAA Tournament. I have them going all the way to the NCAA Championship Game, but coming up short against the top-seeded Virginia Cavaliers.

Picking the East

First Round

1 Villanova over 16 Texas Southern... It is hard to imagine a 16 seed beating a 1 seed this year, particularly one that is under .500 overall.

9 Alabama over 8 Virginia Tech... The Hokies are a rock-solid basketball team, but stud guard Colin Sexton leads 'Bama to the win.

12 Murray State over 5 West Virginia... Despite experienced guards Jevon Carter and Daxter Miles, the Mountaineers seem like a team that could falter against the underrated Murray State Racers.

4 Wichita State over 13 Marshall... The heavy three-point shooting Herd will put up points, but the Shockers fundamentally sound basketball ensures a victory.

11 St. Bonaventure over 6 Florida... A great backcourt of Jaylen Adams and Matt Mobley helps the Bonnies shock an inconsistent Florida squad.

3 Texas Tech over 14 Stephen F. Austin... Superb defense and the play of star point guard Keenan Evans helps the Red Raiders avoid a first round stunner.

10 Butler over 7 Arkansas... The athleticism of the Razorbacks will be a tall task for Butler, but star forward Kelan Martin (20.8 PPG) helps them get the job done.

2 Purdue over 15 Cal State Fullerton... The Big West Champ may be able to apply some pressure to the Boilermakers, but don't expect a shocker here.

Second Round

1 Villanova over 9 Alabama... Don't be surprised for the scorching hot Tide to knock off 'Nova here, but the steady guidance of Jalen Brunson helps the Wildcats move on.

4 Wichita State over 12 Murray State... The Racers play an up-tempo brand of basketball, but Wichita will slow them down and turn this into a physical slugfest.

3 Texas Tech over 11 St. Bonaventure... Both of these teams have great backcourts, but Texas Tech's depth helps them secure the victory.

2 Purdue over 10 Butler... It should be a very physical, inside-orientated battle between these two but Purdue will just be too much for the Bulldogs here.

Sweet 16

4 Wichita State over 1 Villanova... The Shockers should be able to slow down Villanova's offense enough for their improved three-point shooting to put them over the top.

2 Purdue over 3 Texas Tech... Chris Beard stunned Purdue two years ago while at Little Rock, but Tech just doesn't have anybody that can match Purdue's size.

Elite Eight

2 Purdue over 4 Wichita State... This one should be a classic, Midwest battle between two well-coached teams. Purdue's superior talent helps them win the region.

East Region Champ: 2 Purdue Boilermakers

Bracket Analysis: West Region

Trevon Bluiett, Xavier

Long known as one of the premier mid-major programs in the country, Xavier took the next step this season, winning the Big East regular season title and locking up their first ever No. 1 seed. They now land as the top seed in perhaps the weakest region in the bracket, with a clear path deep into the Tournament. The strength to this Musketeers' team is their backcourt, led by All-Big East veteran Trevon Bluiett, steady sophomore point guard Quentin Goodin and lights-out shooter J.P. Macura. That high-scoring trio helped Xavier have the nation's 11th highest scoring offense in the country, averaging 84.3 points per game. The big X-factor for the Musketeers will be on the other side of the ball, where their inconsistent defense will have to step up in a big way. They allowed 74.5 PPG (235th nationally) and they really struggled to defend teams in the low post. The good news is that most of the teams in the top-half of the West Region don't really run their offense through the paint, which really plays to Xavier's strengths. Due to the fact they aren't a traditional power, a lot of people see this Musketeers team being the first top seed to loss this March. However, this is a skilled and experienced team, led by perhaps the nation's most underrated head coach, Chris Mack. Also, this is a program that has proven they can win in the Big Dance. They have advanced to the Sweet 16 or beyond six times in the past decade, and are amazingly consistent. They should be able to advance deep into the Tourney once more this year.

Rated as the No. 1 recruit in the nation by most scouting services prior to the season, we have seen just 25 minutes of Michael Porter in '17-'18 with eighth-seeded Missouri. Its hard to get much of an impression from just 25 minutes of play, but Porter's talent level and potential is astounding. The big question is: can he lead this Mizzou on a dark horse run? Porter is far from the only contributor on this roster, as his brother, Jontay, and senior Kassius Robertson have been key to a great second half from this Tigers team. However, while Missouri has shown flashes of real promise, with wins over Kentucky, Tennessee and Texas A&M, they have had bouts of real inconsistency. Much of that can be attributed to the real youth on this roster, and incredibly streaky shooting. Opening up against ninth-seeded Florida State will be an interesting test, as will a possible future date with Xavier. Both of those teams have great guards, and can attack on the drive very well, which is an issue for a team that doesn't have any great defenders. Even so, the Tigers could become the mystery-type team able to make a huge run, if they play up to their talent level. It just appears like it will hinge on what the Porter brothers are able to do.

Playing at South Dakota State, Mike Daum doesn't get much national attention but in reality, he is one of the best players in the Field of 68. Daum, a 6'9" junior forward, is averaging 23.8 points per game and 10.4 RPG, while shooting an impressive 46% from the field and 42% from deep. He has been a major reason why the Jackrabbits managed to go 28-6 overall and finish first in the Summit League. Daum, along with freshman David Jenkins Jr. and Reed Tellinghuisen makes SDSU one of the more dangerous dark horses in the bracket. The Jackrabbits open Tournament play with fifth-seeded Ohio State, certainly a great team, but a beatable squad. Beyond swingman Keita Bates-Diop, the Big Ten Player of the Year, the Buckeyes lack an interior presence that can contain Daum and also aren't very deep, which could haunt them against a SDSU team that runs the floor as well as anybody in the country. Beyond that, there are plenty of opportunities for this South Dakota State to make some serious moves and become a Cinderella story. Possible future meetings with Gonzaga and Xavier will obviously be tough, but this Jackrabbits team is incredibly skilled and they have the talent to really cause some chaos, especially in a region that could really be wide-open.

After winning their second straight Big Ten Tournament, Michigan once more looks like a team set to have a great NCAA Tournament. They have the dominant low presence (Mo Wagner) they need and plenty of shooters to guide one of the country's most explosive offenses. They are also one of the more experienced teams in the field, led by proven veterans such as Wagner, sharpshooting Duncan Robinson, Muhammed-Ali Abdur-Rakham and Kentucky transfer Charles Matthews. Head coach John Belein also gives them a significant advantage; the savvy coach is great at adapting to different teams and in late game situations. The Wolverines are just the type of team you can feel confident about this time of year, a time when its hard to really feel confident in a sport filled with parity. The biggest question is rust, as they have taken a week off because the Big Ten Tournament was moved up. Taking a week off when you're hot doesn't usually help, but perhaps it could make them more fueled for a stretch run. When they're playing down the stretch and everybody is else is tired, having fresher legs could actually be a huge advantage. So, perhaps, their biggest question mark is actually a huge asset for a team already playing great basketball.

Texas A&M probably is never going to play like the team that was once ranked eighth nationally again in 2017-2018, but the Aggies are not to be taken lightly as the seven seed out West. They are a very lengthy, physical team that runs their offense inside-out. Massive center Tyler Davis is a load for any team to handle, and their collection of guards are hard-nosed and excel through contact. The big issue during this team's early conference-play slide was the loss of their point guard, veteran Duane Wilson. Freshman guard T.J. Starks has stepped up in a big way, and down the stretch the Aggies played great basketball. This is still a team that doesn't shoot the ball very well and they aren't particularly deep, but they may be one of the more dangerous seven seeds in the field. If they can get past an underrated Providence team and use their size to overtake North Carolina in Round 2, this is yet another team that could make some serious noise.

Picking the West

First Round

1 Xavier over 16 NC Central/Texas Southern... A lot of people consider Xavier the weakest No. 1 seed in this Tournament. Even so, the Musketeers should roll over this First Four winner.

8 Missouri over 9 Florida State... The addition of Michael Porter helps the Tigers overcome a good shooting Florida State squad.

12 South Dakota State over 5 Ohio State... Chris Holtmann has done a superb job in his first season with Ohio State, but the Buckeyes could be in store for an upset against Mike Daum and SDSU.

4 Gonzaga over 13 UNC Greensboro... This Gonzaga team isn't at last year's level, but good guard play and big man Rui Hachimura puts the Bulldogs over the top.

6 Houston over 11 San Diego State... The Aztecs are a team that plays great defense and has solid depth, but Houston is playing great basketball and should keep rolling.

3 Michigan over 14 Montana... There may be some rust on this Michigan team after taking a week off, but they should still fend off the Big Sky Champ.

7 Texas A&M over 10 Providence... The Friars are very overlooked playing in the tough Big East, but they just don't have the size or length to deal with A&M.

2 UNC over 15 Lipscomb... Lipscomb, the Atlantic Sun Champ, comes from a conference that has produced some major Cinderella stories, but they won't beat UNC here.

Second Round

1 Xavier over 8 Missouri... With their impressive talent level, Missouri should give Xavier quite a scare, but the sweet-shooting of J.P. Macura and Trevon Bluiett helps the Musketeers come out on top.

4 Gonzaga over 12 South Dakota State... A rematch of last year's opener for Gonzaga should go the same way as the first: with the Bulldogs moving on.

3 Michigan over 6 Houston... Former Indiana head coach Kelvin Sampson will be eager to take down a former Big Ten rival, but the Wolverines should keep on rolling.

2 UNC over 7 Texas A&M... If Tyler Davis and Robert Williams dominate down low, there could be an upset opportunity here, but the Tar Heels are just too skilled and deep to lose in the second round.

Sweet 16

1 Xavier over 4 Gonzaga... An upset of former mid-major powerhouses should be exciting, but Xavier's high-octane offense pushes them to victory here.

3 Michigan over 2 UNC... Mo Wagner versus Luke Maye should be a great battle, but the Wolverines' impressive crop of guards secures the win.

Elite Eight

3 Michigan over 1 Xavier... Both of these offenses are flaming hot, but the Wolverines balance and depth helps them take down the top seed out West.

West Region Champ: 3 Michigan Wolverines

Bracket Analysis: South Region

Kevin Knox, Kentucky

Head coach Tony Bennett has built something special at Virginia, but one big thing is still missing from his resume: a Final Four appearance. He has a number of teams that have gotten close, but none have really been able to get over the top. This year's Cavaliers team just seems different. Defensively, they are as good as ever, and have length and athleticism. The big difference is their offense, which is perhaps the most dangerous it has been since Bennett took over in Charlottesville. Versatile guard Kyle Guy has had a breakout sophomore season, fellow guard Ty Jerome is one of the most clutch players in the nation, senior Devon Hall is shooting 45 percent from three, and they have a number of big guys that can also contribute. The big concerns are offensive consistency and the fact the region they landed in just happens to be probably the hardest of the four. When UVA does struggle, it generally is because they have experienced long bouts where their offense just can't really make anything. It has been the main reason why past Virginia teams have been unable to get to that elusive Final Four. Dealing with the winner of Arizona/Kentucky, two teams that went out this weekend and won their conference tournaments, in the Sweet 16 will be a big challenge but I like this Cavaliers team. They have depth, plenty of playmakers, experience and discipline. Picking the No. 1 overall seed to win it all seems boring, but in a year that has been incredibly unpredictable, the Cavs have been one of the few constants. They are indeed my pick to cut down the nets in San Antonio. 

John Calipari-coached teams tend to have a common trend. Of course, there have been some outliers (2012, 2014-2015), but generally his youthful Kentucky teams struggle early on in the season before they start to figure things out and play great basketball by the time March rolls around. This UK team certainly seems to fit that trend. Maybe the youngest team Calipari has had since he arrived in Lexington, the 'Cats really struggled in the non-conference and early on in SEC play but they are clearly trending up, winning a hard-fought SEC Tournament. The big reason for their recent success has been the growth of top scorers Kevin Knox and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, along with improved play from the "veterans" Wenyen Gabriel and Sacha Killeya-Jones. Knox has evolved into the type of player that can really lead a Final Four squad, which is saying something considering the ups-and-downs he experienced earlier in the year. Gilgeous-Alexander has surpassed expectations since joining the Wildcats, Gabriel's three-point shooting has been huge in terms of spacing, while Killeya-Jones has been a force on the glass. If those guys continue to play the way they have, and the bench steps up, this is definitely a team that can make some noise. Davidson, who is playing incredibly well right now and just won the Atlantic 10, will be a tough early test, as will future meetings with Arizona and Virginia, assuming they get their jobs done. Even so, this UK team looks dangerous and it would not be surprising at all to see them come out of the South.

A popular preseason No. 1, Arizona had a rough start to the season, losing three straight in the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament. However, there is no denying how incredibly talented this Wildcats team is, and they are coming off a dominant conference tournament. The big advantage Arizona possesses is big man DeAndre Ayton, who has a great shot at being the top selection in this June's NBA Draft. Ayton has the size and strength of a seasoned NBA vet, and there is no team in this region with a frontline that can match up well against him. Add in the scoring of wings Allonzo Trier and Rawle Alkins, who can take nearly any team off the dribble, and 'Zona has all the makeup of a scary team. Buffalo will be another early test for this team, but obviously the real challenges come later on against Kentucky/Virginia. Talent-wise, Arizona may be the best of the trio but of course, that doesn't necessarily mean they are set to come out of this region. Much like Bennett, Sean Miller is a great and accomplished coach but he still lacks a Final Four berth on his resume. If this team plays up to their talent level, the 'Cats should be able to change that. 

If you're looking for a real dark horse in the region, Loyola-Chicago would be a great move. The 11 seed in the region, the Ramblers swept both the Missouri Valley regular season title and the conference tournament and have great overall balance. Experienced guards Donte Ingram, Clayton Custer and Marquez Townes can cause defenses real troubles with their shooting (all hitting 40 percent or better from three-point), and the Ramblers have five players all scoring in double digits, which means they won't fall apart if someone is having an off day. Loyola beat Florida on the road earlier on in the season, which shows they can beat teams with premier talent, and it looks like they will be able to beat in-state rival Miami, who they open the Tournament with. Moving on, the bottom half of the region looks ripe with opportunity. Cincinnati is maybe the weakest two seed in the field, and while they are incredibly talented, the three seed, Tennessee, is very beatable. If the Ramblers can seize this opportunity, there is a great chance they can make a very deep run and maybe, just maybe, be this year's mid-major Cinderella.

Shaka Smart has had a Cinderella run before while at VCU, and it seems the energetic head coach always has his teams playing the best when March rolls around. Now at Texas, the Longhorns definitely have the look of a team that can make some serious noise. An imposing frontcourt, headed by stud freshman Mo Bamba will give UT a major advantage over some opponents, as will an athletic group of guards that play hard, aggressive defense. The Longhorns also have a big motivation factor, as they are playing for guard Andrew Jones, who was diagnosed early on in the season with Hogdkins Lymphoma. Much like Louisville did after Kevin Ware's scary injury a few years ago, that motivation can really make the difference late in the Tournament. As a 10 seed, the Longhorns will begin play against Nevada. The Wolfpack will be quite a challenge led by NC State transfers Caleb and Cody Martin, but this Texas team should be able to handle them. From there, possible meetings with Cincy and Tennessee will of course be quite a tough test, but this Texas team has the makeup to come out on top. This team won't have the same feel as the one at VCU when Smart went on his improbable Final Four run, but they can still cause plenty of damage.

Picking the South

First Round

1 Virginia over 16 UMBC... Someday a 16 seed will beat a one seed and become the ultimate Cinderella. This UVA team is not going to let UMBC be the first.

9 Kansas State over 8 Creighton... They didn't get much attention in the loaded Big 12, but this Kansas State is skilled and disciplined. They should be able to roll past the Bluejays.

5 Kentucky over 12 Davidson... Davidson is playing great basketball right now, but they just don't have the talent to overcome this Kentucky team stocked with future pros.

4 Arizona over 13 Buffalo... Buffalo is appearing in their second straight tourney under head coach Nate Oats, but they just don't have anybody on the roster that can contain DeAndre Ayton.

11 Loyola-Chicago over 6 Miami... A classic 6-11 upset here. The Ramblers are skilled enough and balanced enough to take down Jim Larranaga's Hurricanes.

3 Tennessee over 14 Wright State... After being picked 13th in the SEC in the preseason by media, Tennessee has been a huge surprise. They should be able to hold off Wright State.

10 Texas over 7 Nevada... The Martin twins will be a load to handle for UT, but Mo Bamba and the 'Horns quality backcourt puts them over the top. 

2 Cincinnati over 15 Georgia State... They don't play a pretty brand of basketball, but this is a superb Cincinnati team, and one that won't fall to a 15 seed.

Second Round

1 Virginia over 9 Kansas State... Barry Brown and Kansas State will cause UVA some issues, but Tony Bennett's "pack-line" defense keeps the Cavs from the upset.

5 Kentucky over 4 Arizona... Jared Vanderbilt, Kentucky's best big man, will hopefully be healthy for this one, enabling UK to contain Ayton enough to win this game.

3 Tennessee over 11 Loyola-Chicago... The Ramblers are definitely a dark horse, but Tennessee's size and head coach Rick Barnes' experience holds them off.

10 Texas over 2 Cincinnati... Both Cincy and Texas are great defensive teams, but Bamba and the Longhorns' superior offense sparks the upset.

Sweet 16

1 Virginia over 5 Kentucky... Kentucky's offense has been burning hot as of late, but they have not seen a defense with the length and skill of Virginia's group.

3 Tennessee over 10 Texas... It should be a great battle between two teams with great frontcourts, but superior shooting and overall depth should guide the Vols to the win.

Elite Eight

1 Virginia over 3 Tennessee... The Volunteers may not be quite as steep as a challenge as Kentucky or Arizona, but UVA will still need to play great basketball to secure a Final Four bid.

South Region Champ: 1 Virginia Cavaliers

Five Dark Horse NCAA Tournament Teams

Collin Sexton, Alabama

March Madness may still be over a month away, but in a sport where parity reigns, it is never too early to identify which teams might be bracket-busters when the NCAA Tournament begins. Here are five that could cause plenty of chaos when the bracket is unveiled:

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders Projected 10-13 seed
At this point, it's hard to consider Middle Tennessee a dark horse after what they have done the last two NCAA Tournaments. In 2016, the Blue Raiders stunned second-seeded Michigan State and last season they outplayed Minnesota en route to another first round victory. This year's team is just as dangerous as the last two, headlined by stars Nick King and Giddy Potts. King is one of the most underrated big men in the nation, averaging 21.2 PPG and 7.9 RPG, while Potts has been instrumental in Middle Tennessee's last two Tournament victories. The Blue Raiders are not a great offensive team, but they are stingy on the defensive end, where they allow just 64.9 points per game, 23rd in the nation, which should serve them well when March arrives. Right now, Middle Tennessee sits at 8-1 in the Conference USA, and is the clear-cut favorite to win the league once more, likely setting them up for another March run.

Nevada Wolfpack Projected 7-10 seed
The Mountain West doesn't get much national attention, but there is a lot of quality basketball teams in the conference, most notably Nevada. The Wolfpack sit at 18-4 and are one of the most balanced teams in the country, with depth and experience throughout their lineup. The Martin twins, transfers from NC State, have fueled the Wolfpack's impressive start to the season as well as fellow transfer Kendall Stephens, who came from Purdue. Nevada's resume is actually very impressive, as they have an RPI of 18 and their worst loss of the season was to Wyoming by one on the road. Nevada will have to fend off surging Boise State (18-4 overall, 8-2 in the conference) to win the conference, but this is a very dangerous team that has a very efficient offense. We've seen teams from the Mountain West bust brackets before, and this Wolfpack squad could be the next.

Alabama Crimson Tide Projected 7-9 seed
Legendary head coach Avery Johnson has done a terrific job rebuilding Alabama's basketball program, and this year's team looks like they could cause some damage. The Tide have not been playing very well as of late, going just 7-5 in their last 12. However, the talent on this roster is top-notch, and if the youth grows up quickly this is a very dangerous team. Explosive point guard Collin Sexton is one of the funnest players to watch in college basketball, and the unquestioned leader of this team. Fellow freshman John Petty and playmaker Dazon Ingram are also dangerous offensive weapons, and Alabama continue to improve on the defensive side of the ball. A big non-conference win over Trae Young really helped 'Bama, who was slipping towards the bubble. An important stretch upcoming that includes Florida, Missouri, Mississippi State and Tennessee (all who look like Tournament teams) could decide whether this team is ready to take the next step or still has stuff to work on before postseason plays begins.

Butler Bulldogs Projected 6-9 seed
Even though they haven't made a super deep NCAA run since Brad Stevens was on the sideline, Butler has become one of the most consistent Tournament teams in the country. In their last six Tournament appearances, Butler has won at least one game, and have been agonizingly close to some big upsets over the past few seasons. This year's team is clearly talented too, as they are the only team in the nation who has been able to beat the country's current No. 1 team, Villanova. Contrary to the old Butler teams that relied on their stifling defense, this team has a dangerous offense, led by senior forward Kelan Martin. First-year head coach LaVall Jordan might not quite have the magic that Stevens once did when leading the Bulldogs, but this is a tough, well-rounded team that is very consistent. A Final Four run may not quite be in the cards, but don't be surprised if this team is able to finish off a few big-time teams before they are eliminated.

NC State Wolfpack Projected 10-12 seed
With the lone exception of a bad loss in the non-conference to UNC Greensboro, there isn't a 15-7 team with as impressive as a resume as NC State. The Wolfpack, who are led by new head coach Kevin Keatts, have beaten UNC, Duke, Clemson and Arizona, all teams with an RPI at or better than 14. This clearly shows how dangerous NC State is when they are playing well, but they still lack consistency. Al Freeman and Omar Yurtseven are the Wolfpack's best two offensive options, but they'll need more production from their bench if they are to really make a deep NCAA Tournament run. They will also need to have a great end-of-the-year stretch to even guarantee a spot in the Field of 68, as they sit firmly on the bubble at the moment. There is no stretch that is easy in the brutal ACC, but their last few games of the season are extremely manageable.