Thursday, May 21, 2020

NBA Draft 2020 Player Profile: Anthony Edwards

Anthony Edwards, Georgia
Every single recruiting cycle, there are a few major surprises when it comes down to which program elite basketball prospects are heading to. Such is the reality of a college basketball landscape that can shift rapidly year to year, and relies on the decisions of 18 and 19-year olds coming out of high school. The 2019's biggest surprise was undoubtedly five-star combo guard Anthony Edwards, who announced that he would play for Tom Crean at Georgia. Crean has coached a number of NBA players during his time at Marquette and Indiana, but Edwards' decision to head to Athens over blue bloods such as Kansas, Kentucky and UNC was still a huge surprise. Now, Edwards is off to the NBA after one season with the Bulldogs, hoping to complete a relatively unorthodox journey to the Association. Edwards' athleticism and bounce have already captivated the attention of basketball fans and NBA personnel alike, but is he a real candidate to go top overall in the 2020 NBA Draft? Breaking down his game further could give us some indication of where Edwards could be landing, whenever the Draft takes place.

Quick Facts
Anthony Edwards
From: Atlanta, Georgia
Height & Weight: 6'5", 220 pounds
Position: Combo guard (primarily SG)
Team: Georgia Bulldogs

Strengths


  • Bouncy athlete that will finish at the rim. The first thing that jumped out at me when taking a look at Edwards was his powerful finishing ability. Whenever he finds a lane to the basket, he's able to use his wide frame and finish through contact. That ferocity around the rim does remind me of Victor Oladipo and Dwyane Wade, two guys Edwards has said he models his game around. It certainly produces a lot of highlight reels, and I think he could be dominant in transition. Georgia was often such a bad defensive team they were running their offense out of the half-court most of the season. Which ever NBA team Edwards goes to has to get him out and running, because he'll do some special things. 
  • Size and NBA-ready body. Not a lot of basketball players enter college with the body of Anthony Edwards. At over 200 pounds, he pounds through smaller opposing defenders, but knows how to use that size strategically. Length-wise, he projects favorably as an NBA guard, standing at roughly 6'5", and flashing a 6'9" wingspan. Edwards also boasts an 8'4" standing reach, which will come into play on the defensive end. The good news here is that Edwards already looks like a pro, and he still has room to grow. Once he gets into an NBA nutrition program and continues to add muscle, he's going to be very difficult to stop, particularly if he can add a quicker first step.
  • Shot creation potential, has to grow as a shooter from the perimeter. Edwards' shooting numbers while in college don't exactly jump out at you. He shot 40 percent from the field on the year, and 29 percent from three-point. With that being said, it's not an area of his game I'm supremely worried about. He shot the ball well in high school, and he has healthy shooting mechanics with a quick release. Edwards simply doesn't need much space to get off his shot, and although he'll have be a better decision-maker with his shot selection in the pros, that's obviously a good sign. He will still need a little bit of refinement as a shooter, but the basic tools are already in a good spot.
  • Defensive ability has the potential to be dominant. I really like Anthony Edwards' build as a defender. He's really tough to shake on-ball, and he has the length and awareness to create turnovers on that end. Edwards averaged 1.3 steals per game in his lone season in the collegiate ranks, and it wouldn't be surprising to see those numbers jump. He also has potential to be a really good shot-blocker for his position with that leaping ability and length, but that's not something I'm really expecting. The key for him is to become a much better off-ball defender; like many players his age, he can get caught sleeping on defense and lose his man, or not make the necessary rotations. It's understandable that there were some of these defensive lapses from Edwards considering all he was doing for UGA on the offensive end, but they're still something that needs to be cut down in the NBA. 

Weaknesses

  • Decision-making. Being the lead guy on a team that wasn't very good, it was no surprise that Edwards forced a lot on offense in '19-'20. There were too many times when he'd try and drive into double and triple teams recklessly, or force up a contested three. He has the talent to make enough of those difficult shots for you to live with it, but you'd really like to see him get the ball to his teammates or hold off at times. He has shown he can be a really good passer when he needs to, but he also averaged nearly three turnovers per game with the Bulldogs. Edwards has to get better at learning different passing angles and finding his teammates in space. If he lands in the right system in the NBA, I don't think this will be a huge problem. But, I think there is a world in which he falls into the Dion Waiters or Lance Stephenson camp on offense; a guy that can score, sure, but a guy that can also take a team out of the game with his poor shot selection.
  • Lack of a mid-range game. I understand that the mid-range jumper is really a lost art in the NBA today, but it's still something you'd like to see Edwards add to his arsenal. He has a tendency on offense to either go straight to the rim, or settle for deep threes. If he can mix in a smooth mid-range game, he would have a really versatile, deep offensive game. I could certainly envision him growing a back-to-the basket game in the mid-range, where he can use his size and strength to get position, and his quick release to load up on points. Perhaps that's a part of his game that will grow later on.
  • Free throw shooting. I'll give Anthony Edwards a lot of credit in this category. He didn't shoot the ball well from the stripe throughout most of his high school career, but shot 77 percent from free throw in his lone collegiate season. That's certainly a serviceable number, and there was progress made there, as his numbers got better during the conference season. But, I'd love to see Edwards bump those numbers up even a little bit more. With how much contact this guy absorbs getting to the rim, he could make a living at the free throw line at the next level. If he can get over the 80 percent hump and better, this is a player who score nearly at will, even going up against the speed and strength of NBA defenses. 
My Take
The first time I watched Anthony Edwards this college basketball season, he went off for 37 points (33 of them in the second half) against Michigan State. That was certainly quite the introduction, and I was floored at the athleticism and explosiveness the combo guard played with. However, the more I watched him this season, the more my reservations about Edwards grew. I think he really started forcing things on offense when Georgia started losing, and it became overly obvious. He had tunnel vision when attacking the basket, and simply didn't seem to trust his teammates. That isn't all his fault, and he isn't the only NBA Draft prospect to experience this when playing in the collegiate ranks. I was concerned with his three-point shooting and defensive lapses, and those still weigh on my mind today. Even with all that, I still have Edwards tentatively listed as my No. 2 player in this Class, coming in right behind La'Melo Ball. I think he has the chance to be a really special offensive weapon for an NBA team, but like any 19-year-old kid, he has plenty to polish off. There is a part of me that selfishly wished he had gone to a blue blood program so we could've seen him playing with elite talent around him. But, he made the decision that he felt was the best for him, and Crean does have a track record when it comes to sending players to the league.

Where He'll Go
As we sit in late May, we would normally be watching postseason basketball and preparing ourselves for an imminent NBA Draft. Of course, that isn't the case this year, as we still have little to no idea how the conclusion of the '19-'20 will play out. That makes it nearly impossible to make educated guesses on the top of the NBA Draft, but I couldn't imagine Edwards sliding out of the Top 5. He's all in all a legitimate talent, but I think he'll have to find the right system. I'm interested to see what happens if he lands in Golden State or Atlanta, where he would primarily play off-ball. It would be a major difference from how he played in college, but I think it will actually be a good thing for his growth as a player. 

Friday, May 15, 2020

Spring Football 2020: Ten Players Ready for the Big Sophomore Leap

Eric Gray, Tennessee
Breakout players seemingly coming out of nowhere are part of what makes college football so fresh  and entertaining year-in, year-out. I mean, who could've guessed that Joe Burrow, a solid but underwhelming QB in 2018, would put together possibly the greatest college football season in history a year later? While these "breakouts" can come from any player at any age, it seems like a major chunk of them come in the form of players moving from their freshman to sophomore seasons. It's understandable really, as players learn to adjust to the increased speed and physicality of the college game. With that in mind, I decided to compile a list of ten players that I think will make the "sophomore leap" in 2020. This will be my second year making this list; last year I had some notable hits (Ja'Marr Chase, Rashod Bateman), notable misses (Ricky Slade) and some in-between (Spencer Sanders). I hope that this list will turn out even better, with all these guys able to break on to the grand stage of FBS football. (Note: I disqualify players I already deem as established stars after their freshman season. For example, I think Sam Howell is going to get even better as a true sophomore, but he is already one of college football's best).

Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State (2019 Stats: 30 receptions, 432 yards, 5 touchdowns)
I debated whether to put Garrett Wilson on this list, considering he already has established himself as a star in some respects. However, I think he'll do even greater things in 2020 and beyond. A former five-star recruit, Wilson quickly rose up the depth chart with Ohio State and managed to catch 30 passes for 432 yards. He really showed just how good he can be during the Buckeyes' dismantling of Michigan, when he caught 8 balls for 118 yards and a score. Now, Wilson could feasibly be the No. 1 option on this Ohio State team, as they lose K.J. Hill and Binjimen Victor. In a Ryan Day offense, that's usually a good place to be, and his stock only goes up when you consider Justin Fields is back to get him the football. With those opportunities and his pure talent, I would not be shocked in the slightest if he is a Biletnikoff Award finalist come next December.

D.J. Williams, RB, Auburn (2019 Stats: 84 carries, 400 yards, 2 touchdowns)
D.J. Williams is another guy who saw a healthy dose of action as a freshman last fall, but should be in store for even bigger things. Williams spent most of 2019 behind JaTarvious "Boobie" Whitlow on the Auburn depth chart, but also showed workhorse potential. He racked up 48 carries in a three-game span in late October, including 24 in a victory over Ole Miss. His chances for a big 2020 only further increased when Whitlow announced he would be transferring earlier this off-season. That likely leaves Williams as the go-to guy in this Gus Malzahn offense, a unit that loves to run the football. He will have to hold off highly touted freshman Tank Bigsby, but this is the type of physical, bull-dozing back that we've seen have plenty of success in the SEC.

Zacch Pickens, DL, South Carolina (2019 Stats: 16 total tackles)
Say what you will about Will Muschamp and his offenses, but this is a coach who has proven he can recruit and develop the defensive line. He will have a pair of former five-star prospects in Columbia this fall, in the form of newcomer Jordan Burch and "veteran" Zacch Pickens. Pickens showed that he could handle SEC football in 2019, playing in all 12 of South Carolina's games and earning All-SEC Freshman recognition. He didn't record any sacks, but proved he could plug holes in the middle and move across the line. He'll have another spring to continue to hone his skills but more importantly, he'll also get the snaps. The Gamecocks lose a number of pieces to the D-Line, a group that was good but far from great in 2019. Expect Pickens to really start to shine with all those new snaps afforded to him, particularly under the coaching of D-Line coach Tracy Rocker. Rocker comes over after three seasons at Tennessee, and has coached 15 NFL Draft picks in his career.

Jake Smith, WR, Texas (2019 Stats: 25 receptions, 274 yards, 6 touchdowns)
So much of this list is talented youngsters who will be able to rise up their depth charts due to departures in front of them, a mold that certainly fits Jake Smith. Smith was the No. 8 ranked receiver in the 2019 class, but went to a school that already had an established 1-2 combo at wide out in Collin Johnson & Devin Duvarney. That isn't to say he was completely invisible, as his six touchdown catches were tied for second on the team. Smith really demonstrated reliable hands last season, while also showcasing potential deep threat ability. With Johnson and Duvarney both graduated, returning QB Sam Ehlinger needs a fresh go-to guy. I'm willing to bet that guy will be Smith, who will get quite an early test in 2020 when the Longhorns travel to Baton Rouge to meet up with LSU.

Jaden Davis, CB, Oklahoma (2019 Stats: 31 total tackles, 1 interception, 1 pass deflection)
It's not much of a secret that Oklahoma's defense has been a major problem for them in year's past, but the 2019 unit made significant strides. With the exception of the dismal Playoff showing, they did a much better job at limiting big plays and controlling the run. With coordinator Alex Grinch back in the fold, I expect the group to continue to improve, especially the young guys. That includes cornerback Jaden Davis, who already impressed in his freshman campaign. A four-star coming from Fort Lauderdale, Davis immediately showed he could acclimate to the college game, with six tackles against UCLA in Week 3. He also had an interception a week earlier in the Sooners' throttling of South Dakota. He could battle for starting snaps throughout fall camp, and has all the tools to be a very effective corner, even in the wide-open Big 12 Conference.

Eric Gray, RB, Tennessee (2019 Stats: 101 carries, 539 yards, 4 touchdowns)
If you watched Eric Gray or Tennessee's end to 2019, it's easy to get excited about what this team and player will do in 2020. Gray spent most of the season lower on the depth chart, averaging around six carries per game over Tennessee's first 11. However, with starting tailback Ty Chandler beat up going into the Vanderbilt game, Gray got the most of his opportunities and put together a dazzling performance. He rushed for 246 yards and three touchdowns, averaging nearly 10 yards per carry. It was the first 200-yard day for any Volunteer back since Arian Foster over a decade ago. He followed it up by rushing for 86 yards in their bowl game, a thrilling come-from-behind win over Indiana. Now, there still remains a chance Gray could begin the 2020 season as a backup, with Chandler set to return for his senior season. But, Chandler hasn't exactly wowed as the feature back, and averaged under five yards per carry in '19. It wouldn't be shocking if Gray is able to overtake him and really be a go-to guy in this offense. Either way, he'll have the luxury of running behind what could be the SEC's best offensive line.

Luke McCaffrey, QB, Nebraska (2019 Stats: 142 yards passing, 166 yards rushing, 3 total touchdowns)
This is a little bit of a leap of faith considering Luke McCaffrey could begin next season as a backup on the Nebraska depth chart, and he only appeared in four games last fall (maintaining his redshirt). With that being said, Adrian Martinez was a massive disappointment for the Cornhuskers in 2019. He entered the year with legitimate Heisman expectations before dealing with a string of injuries that resulted in a December surgery. Martinez will still be back, but a lot of people around the program think that McCaffrey could soon overtake him. The younger brother of Christian, Luke was a pretty nice get for Scott Frost and the program because of his bloodline and offensive versatility. We saw that a little bit in 2019, with McCaffrey even lining up at receiver over the final few games. Even if he isn't able to wrestle the starting QB gig away from Martinez, I firmly expect Nebraska to use McCaffrey more in creative packages, in the Wildcat or another look. He is going to find a way to get on the field, and I think this offense is desperate for somebody with his playmaking potential.

Keevan Bailey, CB, Colorado State (2019 Stats: 19 total tackles, 1 interception, 5 pass deflections)
Keevan Bailey is another guy with some pretty impressive bloodlines who should prove just how talented he is in 2020. His father, Champ, was a 12-time Pro Bowler while in the NFL and one of the best cornerbacks in NFL history. However, he is not the sole reason that Keevan makes this list, as the soon-to-be sophomore really impressed down the stretch in 2019. After being a rotation guy early in the year, he emerged as a starter down the stretch for the Rams, making his first collegiate start against New Mexico in mid-October. He'll likely enter 2020 with a hold on a starting spot and he has one important advantage: coaching continuity. Head coach Mike Bobo was replaced with former Boston College head man Steve Addazio over the off-season, but the lone holdover on the staff was cornerbacks coach Anthony Perkins. Having that type of continuity with a position coach is really crucial for young players, and I think Bailey should thrive.

Leo Chenal, LB, Wisconsin (2019 Stats: 20 total tackles, 1 sack, 2 TFL)
Few defenses in the country consistently produce the talent at linebacker that Wisconsin does, and they have a rising star in the form of Leo Chenal. A former Wisconsin Gatorade Player of the Year, Chenal played in 11 games for the Badgers last fall, showcasing incredible instincts and a real nose for the football. He has a good chance to slide into a starting role in 2020 due to the graduation of Chris Orr, who was the heart and soul of the UW defense in '19. Chenal won't be expected to completely replicate Orr's production, but he is a skilled defender that should be especially stout against the run. Last year, I had a Wisconsin 'backer on this list in Jack Sanborn and he responded with 80 tackles and 5.5 sacks. Chenal will continue the tradition with an excellent year for a Badger defense that will once again be among the best in the nation.

Baylor Cupp, TE, Texas A&M (2019 Stats: None)
It's hard to classify Baylor Cupp as a second-year player when you consider he missed the entirety of 2019 due to a broken leg. However, it's hard not to imagine Cupp having a huge 2020, as he is one of the highest-rated tight end prospects in history and joining a Jimbo Fisher offense. Fisher has always had an affinity for using tight ends, and the production of Jalen Wydermeyer last fall only confirmed it (32 receptions, 447 yards, 6 TD). Wydermeyer will still play a huge role on A&M next fall, but Cupp's impressive pass-catching ability could quickly overshadow him. He also has the luxury of having a skilled quarterback getting him the ball, as Kellen Mond returns for his fourth year as staring QB in College Station.

Tuesday, May 5, 2020

NBA Draft 2020 Player Profile: La'Melo Ball

La'Melo Ball
No family in modern basketball create as many headlines and as much intrigue as the Ball family. Lavar Ball's over-the-top personality and marketing antics with his brand, "Big Baller Brand", became a fixture on social media and sports talk shows, just as Lonzo Ball was breaking into the league with the Los Angeles Lakers. A few years later, Lavar has toned it down somewhat and Lonzo is in a brand new location, putting together a really good first season in New Orleans. But, the family remains in the headlines due to the introduction of the youngest of the Ball trio: La'Melo. La'Melo has taken a very unconventional route to the NBA, originally committing to UCLA at the ripe age of 13 before leaving his high school team and taking professional opportunities overseas. Most recently, he has played for the Illawarra Hawks of Australia's National Basketball League. His decision to enter the 2020 NBA Draft comes as no surprise, as NBA scouts have shown an interest in his skills since he was a middle-schooler. He has enough talent to be considered a legitimate contender for the No. 1 overall selection, but NBA teams must also be wary of the risks involved. Even with the NBA Draft likely to be pushed back a few months, Ball's name and game are going to be talked about endlessly over the coming summer months. It seems like the perfect time to further break down my view on the polarizing point guard, and where I think he could land in the Draft.

Quick Facts
La'Melo Ball
From: Chino Hills, California
Height & Weight: 6'7", 180 pounds
Position: Combo guard
Team: Illawarra Hawks (NBL)

Strengths

  • Elite-level passer, with a great feel for the game. La'Melo earned a reputation as a ball hog earlier in his career, but he has developed fabulous passing ability and instincts over the last few years. He has the strength to get the ball across the court, and he shows a tremendous understanding of passing lanes and timing. Ball can get really flashy in the open court, but he's also effective in the half-court at finding the open man and making the defense react. His feel for the position is also amazing for an 18-year-old. La'Melo understands where he needs to be on the court, and he finds ways to spring his teammates open. This is something I've always found extremely impressive about the Ball family; they make their teammates better. La'Melo recorded a 36.9 assist percentage rate in the NBL and his turnover rate was actually lower than Lonzo's at UCLA.
  • Prototypical NBA size. Size is always going to be an asset in basketball, and that seems to even more true in the modern NBA. Point guards have to be bigger and stronger than ever before, and teams haven't shied away from unconventional methods on offense (think Ben Simmons or Giannis bring the ball up and starting the offense). NBA personnel have to be in love with Ball's size and length. He measures in at 6'7", but also boasts an eye-popping 6'10" wingspan. That type of length is already a major asset, but there is also some thought La'Melo could not be done growing. He is still just 18 years old, and he's grown tremendously during his "high school" years.
  • Significant offensive potential. La'Melo's offensive game is far from rounded out at this point in his career. We know he's an excellent passer, but what about him as a scorer? His size and explosive first step allow him to get to the rim very efficiently, and he finishes pretty well around the basket. He still certainly needs to add bulk if he wants to do the same in the physical NBA, but I like his upside as a finisher. You'd love to see him get even better at drawing contact and getting to the free throw line, but that's often not something super developed at his age. As a shooter, there's work to be done and his mechanics are a little bit messy. I will say, his shot looks better than Lonzo's did at this age, and he should be able to adjust to the league a little quicker. Lonzo'z shooting form was extremely ugly at this point; La'Melo's is slightly better but still needs improvement. It still shouldn't take years for him to get better mechanics down.
  • Professional experience. This is actually a strength that I think is really important to consider when you look at La'Melo Ball. Players taking the one-year overseas route have met mixed results generally, namely guys like Emmanuel Mudiay and Brandon Jennings. Sometimes, an extra year of professional experience simply isn't that big of a plus, even when it's generally stronger competition than what most players see in the collegiate basketball ranks. With that being said, La'Melo has been playing against professionals since his before his junior year of high school. That isn't to say the competition he saw in Lithuania or in Australia is necessarily elite, but there's a certain amount of maturity you have to possess to play in these overseas leagues. This past season, Ball played on a good Illawarra team with a bunch of professionals, where he seemed to fit in and was well-liked. That may not matter to casual basketball fans, but I think it says something to NBA teams, especially with the questions surrounding Ball's immaturity early in his career.

Weaknesses
  • Defensive questions. La'Melo Ball certainly has the tools to be a really effective defender, but it doesn't always show up during games. Ball did boast 1.7 steals per game while in the NBL, but he too often had questionable defensive lapses that can't happen in the NBA. Ball doesn't move as well laterally as you would hope, and his defensive footwork overall is pretty suspect, even at his young age. La'Melo is a terrible pick-and-roll defender; he doesn't have the awareness or athleticism to defend them effectively, and that seems like it could be a real problem in the NBA. I do think that there is serious potential to grow on defense because of his length and natural feel. Lonzo had similar questions on defense coming out of college, and he has developed into one of the NBA's best perimeter defenders. 
  • Shooting consistency. The mechanics are definitely a bit wacky, and La'Melo simply did not shoot the ball very well in his lone season with Illawarra. He has the potential to evolve into a decent shot creator, but that will still need significant work. Ball sometimes can get a little too fancy with his offensive moves, and overzealous with his shooting range. His ability to catch-and-shoot is where I'm going to be the most interested in. Depending on where Ball falls in this Draft, there seems at least a decent chance he could end up on a team with an established point guard, such as Golden State, Atlanta or Minnesota. How does he react to playing off-ball more, and shooting straight-up? I think he can play off-ball pretty effectively when he needs to, but there will be some sort of adjustment period.
  • Family/personality concerns. Lavar Ball is among the most polarizing people in the basketball world, and it's no secret he clashed with the Lakers during Lonzo's time there. Even if NBA teams won't admit it, that has to be something at the top of their minds when discussing selecting La'Melo. There has also been talk about personality and work ethic concerns in the past for La'Melo. It hasn't seemed to be an issue during his most recent stint with Illawarra, and anybody in the public eye at a young age is going to have some personality issues. Ball is still a very young kid, and it will still be important where he lands. If he goes to an organization with a solid core of veterans, I don't think there will ever be any problems. Now, if he ends up in a more volatile situation, that is where some of these past concerns would become more important.
My Take
There were a few reasons why I wanted to start off this series with La'Melo Ball. First off, he's highly controversial, which always lends some intrigue into writing about a player like him. Secondly, he is my top player in this Draft. I've followed his career path from afar since he was a middle-schooler, and I'm really impressed with his growth. Not only is his physical transformation actually really impressive, he has grown so much as a player. Gone is the ball-hogging, half-court shooting teenager and replacing him is an intelligent, well-rounded basketball player. That isn't to say his shooting concerns and defensive problems aren't notable, but there is no perfect prospect at his age. In fact, this is a really imperfect Draft Class, and I would not rule out La'Melo going No. 1 overall. He truly has that type of talent, and he would pack the seats wherever he ends up. 

Where He'll Go
The NBA's decision to push back the lottery was an obvious one, considering the season is still technically going on. However, it means there is no real clarity at the top of this Draft right now, with teams sure to shuffle up and down the board. The teams with the best chance at landing high appear to be Golden State, Cleveland, Minnesota and Atlanta. The interesting thing is, most of those teams would likely prefer a big or a guard. But, team needs in the NBA are significantly different than how we view them in the NFL Draft environment, so I still think it is a safe bet La'Melo lands somewhere in the Top 3-5. The more teams watch his tape this past season the more they're going to be impressed, so I wouldn't put it past him to see him sneak into the No. 1 spot.