CFB Coaching Carousel 2023-24: Breaking Down Every Power Conference Hire of the Offseason

Kalen DeBoer, Alabama

The college football coaching carousel is constantly spinning, but the festivities this year felt a bit flat for most of the late fall and early winter. There was a real lack of big names moving on, dampening the drama and intrigue that has become one of the most exciting times on the college football calendar. Even at a place like Texas A&M, a program that will shell out tens of millions of dollars for Jimbo Fisher not to be their head coach, they settled on a familiar, relatively uninteresting name in Duke head man Mike Elko (who was formerly their defensive coordinator). 

Then, the Nick Saban news broke. The retirement of the greatest coach in college football history sent the carousel into a frenzy and impacted programs across the country. And then the Jim Harbaugh news, that he would finally be making his return to the NFL with the Los Angeles Chargers. With two of the biggest names in the sport moving on, the college football coaching world has gone a radical transformation in a matter of weeks. With that in mind, it's time to break down this year's carousel, with the assumption that the chaos has died down, for at least the time being. There's still plenty left to decide at this juncture, here's my take on each of the power conference jobs that changed hands this offseason. 

Alabama Crimson Tide

Out: Nick Saban (retirement)

In: Kalen DeBoer, Washington HC

It was only a matter of time before Nick Saban called it a career and although I always imagined him riding out on top with a National Title, it didn't come as a complete shock when he announced his retirement in December. For all of his success, Saban has made it clear he hasn't been a huge fan of the direction college football has taken in recent years, and the unrelenting pace of recruiting, NIL, and transfers is enough to burn out even the most accomplished of head coaches.

Now, Kalen DeBoer will be tasked with replacing one of the sport's eternal legends. It's quite a tall task, to put it mildly, but the 49-year old appears up for the challenge after an impressive two-year run at Washington. It's been an impressive rise up the coaching ladder for DeBoer, culminating in arguably FBS football's most prestigious gig, as he's gone from offensive coordinator at Southern Illinois to Alabama head coach in just over a decade. Sandwiched in there were several assistant pit stops, along with head coaching jobs at both Fresno State and Washington, but he is now confronting a whole different animal in Tuscaloosa. I have little question DeBoer has the football knowledge or skills as a head coach to succeed, but recruiting is what's going to ultimately determine just how well of a job he does following up Saban. Recruiting is the lifeblood of the SEC, especially at Alabama, and we simply don't know how good of a recruiter DeBoer is at this level, at least not yet. He could come out and absolutely kill it on the trail, but the types of programs he's competing against are different than at Fresno or Washington. It's going to be quite the transition for him, and I'm curious to see how he responds. Fortunately, the prognosis for the Tide still appears promising in 2024, even with several big names entering the portal after Saban's retirement. That should give DeBoer some much-needed momentum to get this thing off the ground in his debut campaign.

Arizona Wildcats

Out: Jedd Fisch (took Washington HC job)

In: Brent Brennan, San Jose State HC

Jedd Fisch was considered by some to be an underwhelming hire by Arizona following the disastrous run by Kevin Sumlin, but he put together a marvelous three-year in charge in Tucson. After an 1-11 debut, Fisch helped Arizona climb to five wins and then ten in 2023, punctuated by an Alamo Bowl win over Oklahoma. Unsurprisingly, that type of immediate success caught the eye of suitors across the college football landscape and Fisch ultimately took advantage, taking the Washington job vacated by DeBoer.

In his stead, Arizona turns to a familiar name in Brent Brennan, who was a grad assistant with the program in 2000 and coached under Dick Tomey for years, the winningest coach in Wildcat history. It's hard to call the hire a splashy one, but it's an understandable, shrewd one. Brennan comes at a fairly cheap price for a power conference program, did a rock-solid job at San Jose State, and knows the program enough to assume he won't bolt at the earliest opportunity. That's a lot of boxes he checks, giving the program some degree of normalcy as it transitions to life in the Big 12 in 2024.

Duke Blue Devils

Out: Mike Elko (took Texas A&M job)

In: Manny Diaz, Penn State DC

The Mike Elko situation is a prime example of why building a long-term winner in college football can be so difficult. Duke made an excellent hire by bringing him on, he went out and put together two impressive seasons, and then promptly departed for greener pastures. Duke simply didn't have the money or resources to keep him town for an extended period of time, and without any connections to the school, Elko made the best decision for himself in the long-term.

Unfortunately, that left the Blue Devils making their second head coaching hire in under three years, and they ultimately decided on Manny Diaz. Diaz has had a long and winding road to Durham but knows the ACC well after serving as head coach at Miami for three seasons before being unceremoniously dumped in favor of Mario Cristobal. Diaz has rehabilitated his image with a pair of really strong seasons as Penn State's defensive coordinator, and seems like a low-risk, high-reward move by Duke brass. The Miami job always felt a bit too large and daunting for Diaz at the time, but at a place like Duke, he can settle in and take his time in building this program. There have already been some early wins for Diaz, too, as he managed to land one of the most coveted quarterback transfers on the market in Maalik Murphy from Texas. Pairing Murphy's big arm with the high-octane offenses ran by new OC Jonathan Brewer should, at the very least, put fans in the seats and give the Blue Devil faithful reason for excitement each and every Saturday. That's an awfully good starting point and if Diaz can work the portal to his advantage, it wouldn't surprise me if he ends up being one of the better hires of this cycle.

Houston Cougars

Out: Dana Holgorsen (fired)

In: Willie Fritz (Tulane HC)

It's been a steady climb up the coaching ladder for Willie Fritz as head coach, going from JUCO powerhouse Blinn College, to Division II Central Missouri, to Sam Houston State of the FCS, to Georgia Southern, to Tulane, and now his first power conference job at Houston. And the amazing thing is, he's won at every single one of those stops, including a 54-47 mark at Tulane, which saw the Green Wave go 23-4 over the last two seasons and win a New Year's Six bowl.

The jump to the Big 12 should be an interesting one for Fritz, but Houston has long been a job with significant potential. The administration has been more than willing to pay top dollars to improve the program, the NIL operation is ramping up, and it's nestled in fertile recruiting grounds. All of those factors working in favor of Fritz with his proven track record, it's hard to imagine this not working out, even with the uncertainty of the new-look Big 12. With that being said, it's typically been a slow burn for Fritz at most of his previous stops - don't expect the Cougars to be challenging for conference supremacy in 2024. He's also 63 years of age and certainly no up-and-comer, but feels like the type of steady, proven winner that Houston needs at this time after a decade-plus of instability at the head coaching position.

Indiana Hoosiers

Out: Tom Allen (fired)

In: Curt Cignetti (James Madison HC)

A basketball school through and through nestled in a Big Ten East that included Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, and Michigan State, the odds were always stacked against Tom Allen in Bloomington. Despite that, the Indiana native actually managed to guide the program to some notable highs, including an eight-win 2019 and strong COVID season showing in 2020. But, a 9-27 record in the last three seasons since 2020 ultimately doomed his tenure, and left Indiana brass making a much-needed change.

Enter Curt Cignetti, a 62-year old head man fresh off an incredibly successful run guiding James Madison from the FCS ranks to FBS ball. It will be Cignetti's fourth head coaching post and first at this level, but the highly accomplished coach is no stranger to big-time college ball. He was on Nick Saban's first staff at Alabama from 2007-2010 and prior to that coached Russell Wilson at NC State, building up a strong resume before taking over the head coach gig at Indiana University of Pennsylvania. Much like Houston and Willie Fritz, it doesn't necessarily feel like a splashy hire by IU, but a very sensible one. They get a proven head coach on an affordable deal who has had success everywhere he's been - in the wacky world of college football coaching sometimes you don't have to overthink it. Cignetti certainly hasn't shied away from the spotlight since taking over, taking aim at Purdue, Ohio State, and Michigan during his initial introduction. He will have the benefit of no longer being in the same division as several league heavyweights with the Big Ten moving on from divisions, but there's plenty of work to be done for Cignetti to live up to his bold claims.

Michigan Wolverines

Out: Jim Harbaugh (took LA Chargers job)

In: Sherrone Moore (Michigan OC)

A return to the NFL seemed inevitable for Jim Harbaugh at some point and after years of rumors, he finally made the jump to take over the Los Angeles Chargers. It felt like this was the time to do it, fresh off a National Title and after a year in which Harbaugh was suspended for a big chunk of the season. Just as important, there was a clear successor in line in Sherrone Moore, who will slide from offensive coordinator to head coach.

It will be the first true head coaching position for Moore, but the 37-year old brings a proven track record to the table. He has steadily risen up the ranks before landing at Michigan in 2018 as their TE coach, and then transitioned to the team's OC and OL coach. He completely revamped the Wolverine offensive line, a key factor into their development as a National Title-level program and kept the team steady through the uncertainty of Harbaugh's suspensions as acting head coach in 2023. He was the logical direction for the program to go in, delivering stability and continuity, with the room for growth as he matures into the position. Defending a National Title will still be an awfully tall task, especially with significant personnel turnover, but Moore has the pieces in place to succeed in 2024 and beyond. 

Michigan State Spartans

Out: Mel Tucker (fired)

In: Jonathan Smith, Oregon State HC

Pulling away a head coach from his alma mater is never easy to do, but Michigan State managed to do just that when they lured Jonathan Smith away from Oregon State over the offseason. It was quite the coup for the Spartans, bringing in an established name who had done a truly remarkable job rebuilding the Beavers after he was left a mess by Gary Andersen. A 34-35 record might not jump out at you, but three straight bowl appearances, including one ten-win campaign, at a place like Oregon State is incredibly hard to pull off. 

It's likely Smith felt that Oregon State's uncertain future made the decision easier and the timing does seem to work out right by for both sides. Smith gets a big pay jump and enters life in the Big Ten, while the Spartans get a fresh look after a lost season that began with Mel Tucker being fired. There have been early wins here, as well, as Smith brought a big name with him from Oregon State in rising quarterback Aidan Chiles and also filled out his staff with strong hires. Convincing Minnesota defensive coordinator Joe Rossi to leave P.J. Fleck's side was quite the statement from Smith and should set up the MSU defense up for success after several leaky years under Tucker. Plenty of work is yet to be done to get the program back on track, but this has always been a job with significant potential and Smith has the tools to make the most of it.

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Out: Zach Arnett (fired)

In: Jeff Lebby, Oklahoma OC

Zach Arnett was always looked at as a short-term fix for Mississippi State after the unfortunate passing of Mike Leach following the 2022 season and after an underwhelming Year One, Bulldog brass moved quickly in firing him. His replacement seems to bring them back to their Leach roots in Jeff Lebby, an offensive-minded head coach who first made a name for himself under Art Briles at Baylor. For all the controversy surrounding Briles and many of the other members of that Bear staff, in a purely football sense there was little questioning the on-field product.

Since his time at Baylor, Lebby caught on at UCF and helped McKenzie Milton finish in the Top 10 of Heisman voting twice, before joining up with Lane Kiffin at Ole Miss. After two years there, it was time to jump to Oklahoma, where Lebby engineered a pair of productive offenses under Brent Venables. Mississippi State will be his first head coaching job, but the logic seems sound - he's a rising name in the profession whose offense should match the personnel on the roster. Life in the SEC certainly won't be easy, but Lebby seems to have the right approach to the job and ultimately this is Mississippi State - nobody is expecting National Title parades in Starkville.

Oregon State Beavers

Out: Jonathan Smith (took Michigan State job)

In: Trent Bray, Oregon State DC

Much like Michigan ended up doing with Sherrone Moore after Harbaugh's departure, Oregon State chose to stay close to home by selecting defensive coordinator Trent Bray to be Jonathan Smith's replacement. Losing Smith still stings, but the Beavers are hopeful that Bray will ensure continuity, and the 41-year old head man does check plenty of boxes.

Bray is an Oregon State alum who understands the program as well as anybody, with the right knowledge about the unique challenges of building a winner in Corvallis. He's been on the coaching staff since 2018 under Smith and previously served as interim head coach at Nebraska, albeit for just one week as the program transitioned from Mike Riley to Scott Frost in 2017. He has yet to coach a college game, but has been a coach in major college football for a decade-and-a-half at big-name programs across the country. At the very least, he gives Oregon State a sense of normalcy as they wade into an uncertain future away from the Pac-12. That's important, as the 2024 schedule isn't exactly easy, even with the Beavers essentially serving as a de-facto member of the Mountain West. Arch-rival Oregon remains on the schedule, road trips to San Diego State, Boise State, and Air Force loom, and the Beavers also meet up with other power conference foes like Purdue and California. It poses an interesting challenge for Bray, and we'll learn a lot about whether he's the right man for this job throughout this fall. 

Northwestern Wildcats

Out: Pat Fitzgerald (fired)

In: David Braun (interim HC)

David Braun might not have as large of shoes to fill as Kalen DeBoer, but Pat Fitzgerald was something of a living legend himself in Evanston before being brought down by scandal just weeks before the beginning of the 2023 campaign. The scandal rocked the Northwestern community and threatens to scar Fitzgerald's reputation in the long-term, but it may end up being a good thing for the program in a pure football sense. The program had clearly tailed off under Fitzgerald in recent years, and his old-school approach threatened to leave Northwestern behind in the new-look Big Ten.

David Braun, who had been hired as the team's new defensive coordinator just months before the scandal, was named the interim head coach and all he did was go 8-5 and take home Big Ten Coach of the Year honors. It truly was arguably the most impressive coaching jobs anywhere in the country this year - the Wildcats looked crisp and prepared each and every week, and played with an attitude and energy that seemed to be lacking in the latter years under Fitzgerald. In the end it didn't come as any surprise that Northwestern opted to simply remove the interim tag and make Braun the new head of the program, giving them a gifted 33-year head coach with the right skillset to lead them into a new future. There are likely to be growing pains, as there are for any young head coach at this level, but the Wildcats can live with that as long as the positives we saw throughout 2023 carry forward now that he has the full-time gig. This still isn't an easy job - there are significant institutional hurdles in place - but Braun feels like the right guy at the right time in Evanston.

Syracuse Orange

Out: Dino Babers (fired)

In: Fran Brown, Georgia DB coach

A perennial hot seat candidate for most of the last several seasons, Syracuse finally decided to pull the plug on Dino Babers this fall. The decision finished off a tenure that had plenty of highlights, but was ultimately pulled down by late-season collapses, with a 41-55 record over eight years. In response, the Orange decided to go with a bit of an outside-the-box hire in Georgia defensive backs coach Fran Brown, who gets his first crack as head coach at any level. The reason Syracuse is taking a swing on a young coach like Brown? He's considered one of the premier recruiters in the sport, giving this program a fighting chance at bringing in elite talent to upstate New York.

Of course, there will be a bit of a learning curve for Brown as he adjusts to his new gig, which will certainly be quite different than his previous role at Georgia. But, Brown is no stranger to the Northeast - he's from New Jersey and spent several years at Temple and Rutgers. And, he's already made early waves, landing Ohio State quarterback Kyle McCord and several big-name transfers from the portal. Still, there is a lot of risk involved with this hire, but I think it makes sense for a program like Syracuse to take a swing like this and go for a boom-or-bust name. This is one of the toughest jobs in FBS football and won't be getting any easier as the ACC changes in the coming years. Brown gives them a relentless recruiter and a new energy than Babers and even if it doesn't work out, it's clear the Orange are still pulling out the stops to build a competitive football program to match their work on the hardwood.

Texas A&M Aggies

Out: Jimbo Fisher (fired)

In: Mike Elko (Duke HC)

Jimbo Fisher's uncertain future was one of the most fascinating storylines to watch entering 2023 and despite a strong start, three losses in four games through October and November led to the program making a drastic change. Jimbo will get to ride off into the sunset with the largest buyout in college football history, at nearly $80 million, while a new figure takes over on the sidelines in College Station.

That coach happens to be a familiar name in Mike Elko, who served as Texas A&M's defensive coordinator from 2018-2021. Since his working with the Aggie defense, Elko spent the last two seasons in Durham, North Carolina, running a successful operation at Duke, with the Blue Devils going 16-9 under his leadership. His return seems to be all about building stability in a program that has gone through a wild last few years and has seen massive personnel and staff changes as of late. Elko understands the  challenges A&M is up against, and the unique aspects of the school's culture that may rub others the wrong way. He understands what the school needs to succeed, and seems to have a good handle on the external noise that will be following him throughout his tenure. With all that being said, A&m is a pressure cooker, one of the most difficult jobs in the SEC. After just two years of being a head coach at a low pressure place like Duke, is Elko truly ready for this? The good news is that the roster remains incredibly talented and there is a quarterback of the future in the fold in Conner Weigman, assuming he can recover from a foot injury that cost him the final three months of 2023. The bad news? Texas and Oklahoma arrive in the SEC, adding an elevated level of importance to each and every Saturday in College Station.

Washington Huskies

Out: Kalen DeBoer (took Alabama job)

In: Jedd Fisch, Arizona HC

Following one of the greatest two-year stretches in school history, Washington has been hit hard by attrition over the offseason. Kalen DeBoer's shocking decision to take the Alabama job, paired with Michael Penix graduating and a wave of transfers has the 2023 National Runner-up in rebuild mode as they prepare for 2024. However, the program responded in a big way by luring Jedd Fisch out of Arizona to take DeBoer's departed post.

It won't be the first time Fisch coaches in Seattle, although the first at this level, previously serving as Seattle Seahawk QB coach back in 2010. He's had an interesting journey to this position, bouncing around between NFL and college, but there is little denying what a superb job he did at Arizona, winning ten games in Year Three this fall. Washington certainly will be a different job in a multitude of ways, but he'll have more resources in Seattle, plenty of fertile recruiting hotbeds throughout the state, and an administration that is committed to building a winning football program. All of those factors will be important to consider, as the debut season could be a strange one, with the Huskies set to begin life in the Big Ten alongside USC, UCLA, and Oregon. A step-back from the heights of 2023 is almost a certainty, but this is all about the long-term play for Fisch, and he has already proven he can build up programs in a hurry.

Big Ten Power Rankings 2023-24: Edition 2

Boo Buie, Northwestern

* records updated through the morning of 1/17/2024

 1. Purdue Boilermakers (15-2 overall, 4-2 Big Ten)

Previous Ranking: 1

The Purdue Boilermakers haven't been perfect through the initial stretch of Big Ten league play, but the conference's best roster top-to-bottom means that they remain team to beat until someone proves differently. Zach Edey remains the obvious advantage as he races towards what could be a second consecutive National Player of the Year Award, but the deeper we get into the season, the more importance the play of this backcourt will be on Purdue's eventual success. Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer have shown displayed growth over the course of their sophomore seasons and made this offense much more explosive, but it's the play of Southern Illinois transfer Lance Jones that has been the welcome surprise. The fifth-year vet has been playing key minutes and putting up productive numbers across the board, scoring in double-digits in four straight contests. More importantly, his experience is what this backcourt was lacking a season ago, leading to their eventual demise - Jones could help flip the script this time around.

2. Wisconsin Badgers (13-3 overall, 5-0 Big Ten)

Previous Ranking: 3

Since jumping out to their first 5-0 start in the conference since 2007-08, the Badgers were caught up in the chaos of the week, losing on the road Tuesday night to Penn State. It's certainly no cause for concern, and they have an opportunity to immediately make amends over the weekend against Indiana. Now at 5-1, their record has been buoyed by the fact the Badgers have gotten three of their first five at home and avoided nearly all of the other conference heavyweights, but this isn't a case of a team beating up on inferior opponents - Wisconsin has won each of their five league games by double-digits. Things will pick up with a tough end to the month and difficult early February, but the Badgers haven't shown any signs of slowing down - they could easily rise to the top spot in these rankings in short order.

3. Illinois Fighting Illini (12-4 overall, 3-2 Big Ten)

Previous Ranking: 2

Despite all the controversy that surrounds star Terrance Shannon Jr. off-the-court, the Fighting Illini have been impressive on the hardwood through mid-January. Senior forward Marcus Domask has stepped up and taken on a leading role as a scorer, but it's the frontcourt that appears to be the X-factor for the Illini going forward. Quincy Guerrier and Coleman Hawkins have been productive when healthy, but I'm still waiting to see if big man Dain Dainja can reach another gear after a slow start to the campaign. Dainja averaged nearly 21 minutes per game in 2022-23, but has seen his role diminished to single-digit minutes this winter. As the Illini hit the meat of Big Ten play and consistently square off against the elite bigs the league has to offer, Dainja feels like the type of player who could see his role expand.

4. Northwestern Wildcats (12-4 overall, 3-2 Big Ten)

Previous Ranking: 4

A 30-point blowout loss to begin January seemed like an ominous sign for Northwestern, but the Wildcats have quickly righted the ship with victories in two of their last three (and the only defeat coming at the hands of the flaming hot Wisconsin Badgers). Boo Buie continues to be one of the league's most dominant offensive weapons, but it's the Wildcat supporting cast that doesn't receive the respect it deserves. Performances like Brooks Barnhizer's 23-point outburst to power past Penn State or Ty Berry's 22-point showing against Michigan State were lacking at times last winter, showcasing the depth that Chris Collins has worked hard to build. That should help carry this team deep into league play, with the schedule set to pick up in a major way in late January.

5. Nebraska Cornhuskers (13-4 overall, 3-3 Big Ten)

Previous Rank: 14

Not since 2014 under Tim Miles have the Nebraska Cornhuskers played in an NCAA Tournament, but the 2023-2024 edition looks like they have a legitimate shot to change that in Lincoln. It was difficult to read get a read on this team after a soft non-conference slate, but the 'Huskers have proven their worth in Big Ten play up to this point, with two of the most impressive conference wins of the season over Purdue and Indiana. Both games felt like the culmination of all the hard work Fred Hoiberg has done in turning around this downtrodden program - they took care of the basketball, shot the ball incredibly well, and fed off the energy that a revived Pinnacle Bank Arena has to offer. There certainly is plenty of work to be done, but this is a well-rounded basketball team that has no issues going up against the top dogs of the conference - they're going to be a tough out down the stretch.

6. Indiana Hoosiers (12-6 overall, 4-3 Big Ten)

Previous Rank: 5

Leaning on a young, albeit talented core, it's no surprise that Indiana has looked incredibly streaky over the early portion of league play. They've beat just about everyone they should, with Rutgers being the notable exception, but weren't competitive in a 21-point drubbing at the hands of arch-rival Purdue on Tuesday night. One can somewhat excuse the loss considering it was at Mackey Arena, but it's clear this team is going to need more production from their backcourt if they have any hopes of keeping their NCAA Tournament dreams alive. That likely hinges on veteran Xavier Johnson getting not only back to 100 percent, but getting back into the swing of things in this offense. Johnson has missed seven games with an ankle injury, and then was held out of the starting lineup for the second straight game during the Purdue loss. He's far too important to be coming off the bench, even if Trey Galloway has stepped up and handled the scoring burden in recent contests.

7. Iowa Hawkeyes (11-6 overall, 3-3 Big Ten)

Previous Rank: 9

It looked like Iowa was bound for a rebuilding campaign after an 0-3 start to Big Ten action, but one thing has become increasingly clear now that he's the program's all-time wins leader: never count out Fran McCaffery. His Hawkeyes have responded by winning three straight, including an 18-point victory over Nebraska in Iowa City and an impressive road win over Minnesota. Now all of the sudden, Iowa's postseason hopes are renewed, although they have plenty of work to do to build up a resume that is short on quality wins. That could change over the weekend, as the Hawkeyes welcome Zach Edey and Purdue to town in a game that is sure to keep the scoreboard operators busy.

8. Minnesota Golden Gophers (12-5 overall, 3-3 Big Ten)

Previous Rank: 11

Considering Minnesota managed just two league victories all of 2022-23, three conference wins at this point in the season is a remarkable achievement for Ben Johnson and company. With that being said, two straight ugly losses have erased the notion of a potential "Cinderella" story in the Twin Cities and left the team scrambling for answers as they prep for a road trip to East Lansing. The road defeat to Indiana was certainly understandable considering Minnesota's longtime struggles at Assembly Hall, but the poor showing against Iowa felt deflating. Elijah Hawkins and Mike Mitchell have been significant improvements over what the Gophers had a season ago, but both have struggled to find a consistent rhythm shooting the ball and in Hawkins case, he's been a complete liability on the defensive end of the court. There's plenty of time to figure things out and two consecutive defeats is nothing to panic about in this league, but the schedule shows no signs of slowing down - not since 2015 have the Gophers gone into Spartan territory and come out on top against Michigan State.

9. Maryland Terrapins (11-6 overall, 3-3 Big Ten)

Previous Rank: 8

For as concerning as Maryland's non-conference performance was at times, the Terps have managed to figure things out through the early Big Ten slate and a road win at Illinois over the weekend showcased their full potential. Against the Illini, Maryland finally found their offense over a full 40 minutes but more importantly, put together their most complete stretch of defense on the year, holding Illinois to just 33% from the field and under 28% from three. That bodes well for the Terrapins as they begin a difficult stretch of games against explosive offenses, including Northwestern, Michigan State, Iowa, and Nebraska to wrap up the month.

10. Michigan State Spartans (10-7 overall, 2-4 Big Ten)

Previous Rank: 7

This is not the first time we've seen Michigan State struggle through non-conference and the early Big Ten slate, but time is running out for this team to turn it into high gear. Fortunately, the last few weeks have given for optimism - for one, beating Rutgers soundly was a nice start, but more important was the fact the Spartans gave Illinois all they could handle in Champaign before coming up short, 71-68. Others are finally starting to emerge offensively beyond just Tyson Walker, notably Malik Hall, and the defense has looked reinvigorated their last two times out. Obviously, there's a lot of work to be done, but this is beginning to feel more and more like the makings of another magical late season run from Tom Izzo. 

11. Ohio State Buckeyes (12-5 overall, 2-4 Big Ten)

Previous Rank: 6

Three straight losses, including one to an extremely beatable Michigan team, has Chris Holtmann going back to the drawing board as the Buckeyes prepare for a road-heavy next several weeks. The main problem is painstakingly clear: the offense has completely disappeared, which has included a disastrous three-point shooting slump that few could overcome. Jamison Battle has still been shooting the ball well, even coming off a rough showing against Michigan, but the Buckeyes are lacking any other scorer who can consistently score from deep. That's left them looking to bruise down low, an ineffective method against many of the physical and defensively sound Big Ten teams on their schedule. It's up to Holtmann to come up with something new and different to spark things, or else the season could continue its downward spiral quick considering the upcoming schedule.

12. Penn State Nittany Lions (9-9 overall, 3-4 Big Ten)

Previous Rank: 13

Penn State almost certainly is not going to the postseason in the debut campaign of head coach Mike Rhoades, but this remains a feisty Nittany Lion team that could surprise a few folks down the stretch. After three losses in the previous four games, including a pair of blowouts, Penn State pulled off a major upset by knocking Wisconsin from the ranks of the undefeated. They remain a team that can scratch and claw their way into just about any matchup in the conference, and are the just about the last team you want to see on the road or on a short week of rest. That may not sound like much after the highs of the 2022-23 season in Happy Valley, but building a program in this league is never easy, and Rhoades will hope to bring these positives forward as they look ahead to next season.

13. Michigan Wolverines (7-10 overall, 2-4 Big Ten)

Previous Rank: 12

Was the magic of the Fab Five's return to Ann Arbor all Michigan needed to turn around a season that was heading for disaster? It seems unlikely, but the Wolverines at least gathered some momentum after a 73-65 home win against Ohio State. They're going to need it as they prepare for stretch that includes Illinois and road trips to Purdue and East Lansing, particularly considering star guard Dug McDaniel's suspension. But, even that suspension is a perfect representation of just how strange this winter has been - McDaniel is suspended for road games only, but still expected to dress for games at the Crisler Center. It's simply continuation of a sense of uneasiness that has pervaded the program for some time now, and has Wolverine fans already looking forward to football season.

14. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (9-7 overall, 1-4 Big Ten)

Previous Rank: 10

A season-opening loss to instate foe Princeton set the stage for what has been a frustrating 2023-24 in Piscataway, which has only continued in conference play. The Scarlet Knights are off to a 1-4 start in the conference, and the momentum gained in their lone win over Indiana was quickly erased by an 18-point defeat at the hands of Michigan State. There's still hope things can be turned around, but Rutgers desperately needs their offense to find some type of rhythm - perhaps a fully healthy Mawot Mag could be that spark. Mag, who has played in just eight games this season, has scored in double-digits in each of his last four games, including 24 against Iowa. 

College Football Way-Too-Early Top 25 for 2024

Quinn Ewers, Texas

1. Georgia Bulldogs

Kirby Smart's Bulldogs may not have been able to pull off the three-peat, but Georgia remains an absolute machine who should be entrenched as a National Title frontrunner every single year. There will be notable names moving on as there always is in Athens, namely tight end Brock Bowers, but the Bulldogs received quite a treat when quarterback Carson Beck announced he would be back for the 2024 campaign. Beck was impressive as a first-year starter this past fall and should enter next season as a Heisman favorite, although the supporting cast around him will still have to materialize. With that being said, it's likely names like Ladd McConkey, Dillon Bell, and Arian Smith will be back in action on the perimeter, with Oscar Delp a prime breakout candidate at tight end. On the defensive side of things, the usual collection of NFL Draft selections will depart, but elite defensive back Malaki Starks gives the Bulldogs a fine starting point. The key, however, will be whether Georgia's front seven can return to its 2021 and 2022 ways after a bit of a "down" 2023. There's no shortage of talent, but several pieces will need to emerge if Kirby and company are to take home their third National Title in four years next fall.

2. Ohio State Buckeyes

For as frustrating as three straight losses to arch-rival Michigan have been, Ohio State should take solace in the fact they've played the last two National Champions awfully tight and remain on the cusp of something special. Is 2024 the team that can finally get Ryan Day over the top in Columbus? There seems like a window here, particularly if the transfers Day and staff have brought in acclimate quickly, namely Will Howard and Quinshon Judkins. Howard comes over from Kansas State and brings ample experience and the ability to create with his legs. He's no C.J. Stroud, but seems to be an upgrade over the departed Kyle McCord, and has loads of talent to work with throughout the Buckeye offense. Meanwhile, Judkins will hope to spark an Ohio State ground game that has lacked bite over the last two seasons. He'll pair up with tailback TreVeyon Henderson, who made the surprising decision to hold off on the pros for one more season. On defense, the Buckeyes will return several key pieces, including corner Denzel Burke and defensive linemen Tyleik Williams, both of whom could have been first day NFL Draft selections. Just as important, coordinator Jim Knowles looks set to run it back for the third time with this defense after stellar showings in his first two seasons at the helm - 2024 could be the year this group cements itself as one of the best in the country.

3. Alabama Crimson Tide

I had Alabama perched at No. 1 in the initial draft of these rankings before Nick Saban's bombshell retirement earlier in the week, creating loads of intrigue in Tuscaloosa as the Tide prepare for 2024. Now Kalen DeBoer takes over, and will have the unenviable task of replacing the greatest college football coach of all-time. Fortunately, he is blessed with a loaded roster on both sides of the ball. That includes stability at the quarterback position and what should be an improved offensive line, two of the most notable weaknesses for Alabama throughout the 2023 campaign. The defense is going to be in for a rebuild, with names like Dallas Turner, Kool-Aid McKinstry, and Terrion Arnold all set to move on. But, this is Alabama and there's no shortage of talent waiting in the wings, including one of the best young defenders in all of the land, Caleb Downs. Downs' 107 tackles were the most by a Tide freshman in decades and the encore could be even more exciting, as he'll play an outsized role on this new-look team in 2024.

4. Texas Longhorns

A new era in the SEC begins for the Texas Longhorns, but Steve Sarkisian has built up the program to the point that the move up in competition shouldn't be a problem. On both lines of scrimmage and at the skill positions, the Longhorns now resemble an elite SEC team, a testament to the work this staff has not only done on the recruiting trail, but in the player development department. The depth throughout the roster should be huge, as plenty of notable pieces move on, and the core remains one of the best in college football. Quarterback Quinn Ewers could be going pro, but my money is that the gunslinger will be back for one more run in Austin, and he has a rising star joining him in the backfield in C.J. Baxter. Defensively, there will be reloading to do up front, but linebacker Anthony Hill gives the front seven a proven commodity to work with, and the secondary could actually improve this next season. The schedule may be tougher top-to-bottom, but Sark and company showed that they deserve to be in the conversation of college football's elite last fall - now it's time to double down and prove it in 2024.

5. Michigan Wolverines

After nearly a decade in charge at his alma mater, Jim Harbaugh climbed the mountaintop and secured Michigan their first National Title since sharing the honor in 1997. It's a special moment for Wolverine fans who have endured plenty of ups-and-downs going all the way back to the end of the Lloyd Carr era, but a celebration that also comes with some trepidation. Harbaugh has been pretty open regarding his interest in returning to the NFL and once again, it's likely the Wolverines will endure another offseason of will he or won't he in Ann Arbor. Despite that, the prognosis for 2024 still appears promising, especially if quarterback J.J. McCarthy returns, which feels likely. He'll have to make do without trusty sidekick Blake Corum in the backfield, but other faces appear ready to step up and lead the offense, such as versatile wide out Semaj Morgan. On the other side of the ball, there's going to be plenty of names off to the NFL, but there's not a school in the country that reloads as well on this side of the ball as Michigan. They do an excellent job not just reeling in elite talent, but bringing in players that fit their culture and scheme, which should ensure there's little to no drop-off this upcoming fall. It's hard to say definitively one way or the other whether the Wolverines can repeat in 2024 with Harbaugh's future so in doubt but at the very least, they should be firmly in the mix.

6. Ole Miss Rebels

Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss have been winners of the early offseason, making splash after splash in the transfer portal after an 11-win 2023 campaign. Does this mean they're ready to make a jump and seriously contend for a National Title? Losing Quinshon Judkins, who made a rather surprising decision to enter the portal and eventually move on to Ohio State, certainly hurts, but QB Jaxson Dart should ensure the offense keeps on humming. Yet, it's the defensive side of the ball I'm the most interested in, as Kiffin and staff have been reeling in elite defenders from the portal just about daily. That includes Texas A&M transplant Walter Nolen, who I believe has a chance to be the most dominant defensive linemen in all of America this next fall. It will be fascinating to see how well the defense, and team in general, meshes after so many came in through the portal. On paper, the Rebels have enough talent to make the College Football Playoff, especially in the expanded 12-team field, but ensuring all the pieces fit together will decide their fate in the upcoming year.

7. Penn State Nittany Lions

Penn State has been stuck as third wheel to Michigan and Ohio State in the Big Ten East for years but as the league prepares to expand, they're hoping it's the catalyst they need to jump up and win a conference title. That's not to say it will be easy, with the addition of four strong programs from the West Coast, but the Nittany Lions are well-built to take advantage of this new era of Big Ten football. The roster is loaded with young talent still coming into its own, which includes quarterback Drew Allar, set to begin his second season as starter in 2024. Allar was productive in Year One running the offense, but left something to be desired, particularly in big games and moments. Fortunately, he has a two-headed monster at tailback to help him out in Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton, and potentially a new top target in Ohio State transfer Julian Fleming. The defense will be in transition mode after coordinator Manny Diaz took the Duke head coaching job, but were blessed with several surprising returnees to their defensive line, plus a rising star in linebacker Abdul Carter.

8. Clemson Tigers

2021 and 2022 saw Clemson slip in national standing, but 2023 was the wake up call Dabo Swinney and the Tigers needed, or so they hope. This team was far better than a nine-win team, and a .500 showing in a weak ACC is inexcusable. Perhaps that should add extra motivation for a program that remains as talented as ever, but one still working on getting all the parts to fit together. That includes quarterback Cade Klubnik, who had his fair share of rocky moments in his first season as starter, but did enough to believe there could be a chance for major improvement in 2024. He will have the advantage of having his play-caller back for a full offseason, assuming OC Garrett Riley stays put, but also more responsibility on his shoulders now that tailback Will Shipley is set to move on. The defense also moves several program staples, but has loads of young talent on the defensive line, and the linebacker corps could be the best in the ACC in 2024, as Barrett Carter returns for a fifth year and five-star freshman Sammy Brown brings an injection of energy. Just as important as the product on the field for Clemson is the landscape of the ACC - Florida State seems in store for a rebuilding campaign, and no other program has shown they can consistently hang with the Tigers in this league. Needless to say, that bodes well for Clemson's chances to have a redemptive campaign and return to the Playoff next fall.

9. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

2024 feels like it's going to be a huge year for Marcus Freeman to show he is the long-term answer in South Bend. Freeman has had two good teams at Notre Dame and is now 19-8 total, but Year Three is likely to tell us whether he can bring them to an elite level on the national stage. Freeman brought in a transfer quarterback from the ACC for the second straight year in Duke's Riley Leonard, one of the game's most electrifying players when fully healthy. Freeman also went out and made one of the splashier coordinator hires of the coaching carousel by luring Mike Denbrock away from LSU after he helped Jayden Daniels bring a Heisman to Baton Rouge. Those two additions put the offense in a good place, but the X-factor remains out wide - can someone finally emerge at receiver to help the Irish go toe-to-toe with the true giants of the sport? The good news is that the defense looks like it will be one of the best in the country, with veteran pieces like safety Xavier Watts and linebacker Jack Kiser set to return.

10. Oregon Ducks

Life in the Big Ten begins for Oregon, and they will do so with a new face under center after Bo Nix exhausted his collegiate eligibility. Fortunately, the Ducks went out and landed not only a QB that can help them win immediately in former UCF and Oklahoma transfer Dillon Gabriel, but the type of long-term prospect they need to win in their new home in former five-star Dante Moore. Gabriel, who looks to be locked into the starting job for 2024, has the type of arm to lift the entire offense, which will be needed as they replace key names like Mar'Keise Irving and Troy Franklin. The defense looks to be in very good shape, as they'll return the vast majority of a unit that was strong throughout 2023, with the Washington losses being notable exceptions. Adding Kansas State transfer Kobe Savage gives this team a hard-hitting, enforcer type that they've been lacking at times in recent years.

11. Missouri Tigers

Missouri's surprising 11-2, Cotton Bowl season was no fluke from Eli Drinkwitz and company - this program has a chance to cement themselves in the upper echelon of the SEC in 2024. Quarterback Brady Cook and wide receiver Luther Burden III could be the nation's top QB-WR combo next fall, and Theo Wease's return came as a welcome surprise in the last week. Those returnees will ensure the aerial attack is on its "A" game in 2024, particularly as the Tigers lose tailback Cody Schrader after a monster year. On the other side of the ball, coordinator Blake Baker parlayed Missouri's success into the same gig at LSU, but the unit's performance shouldn't drop off a cliff. Drinkwitz and staff have done a great job filling holes in the transfer portal, and they also welcome one of the nation's top freshman in defensive end Williams Nwaneri, who will play from Day One. There's plenty of reason to believe the momentum will keep on rolling here and the expanded Playoff provides ample opportunity - if the SEC was still in its division structure, I'd argue the Tigers have a legitimate shot to challenge Georgia for SEC East supremacy.

12. Washington Huskies

The Huskies may have been unable to finish the job and complete the perfect 15-0 season, and Kalen DeBoer's decision to take the Alabama job is a major gut punch.  Yet, something tells me thatWashington isn't done just yet as they move on to the Big Ten. There will be a new QB now that Michael Penix departs, which looked to be Mississippi State transfer Will Rogers before DeBoer's decision, forcing him to reenter the portal. Whoever does end up starting will need others to emerge at the skill positions, and replacements along the O-Line, which took home the Joe Moore Award this past fall. Defensively, this group epitomized a bend not break mantra, and they could once again in 2024. They'll lose a major name up front in Bralen Trice, a likely first-rounder this spring, but should return plenty of experience throughout the back seven.

13. Florida State Seminoles

Needless to say, it was a disappointing conclusion to an otherwise special season in Tallahassee, which will likely provide an extra sense of motivation around the Florida State football program into 2024. Unfortunately, the losses on both sides of the ball are likely to be severe, although Mike Norvell and staff have done enough to keep this team on track towards a second straight ACC Title. D.J. Uiagalelei is set to take over at quarterback for the departed Jordan Travis after a one year pit stop at Oregon State. Uiagalelei is unlikely to ever fully live up to his five-star billing, but the one-time Clemson QB has proven to be a steady signal-caller who shouldn't have issues keeping the rest of this offense rolling. With that being said, others are going to have to emerge, with top playmakers like Keon Coleman and Johnny Wilson off to the NFL. The defense will be hit hard by attrition up front, but the staff has done excellent work so far in the portal and on the back-end, Shyheim Brown has a chance to cement himself as one of the best in America after playing a team-high 677 snaps in 2023. 

14. Tennessee Volunteers

Volunteer fans got a sneak peek of the future in Tennessee's 35-0 dismantling of Iowa in the Cheez-It Bowl, and 2024 is likely to bring more fireworks to Knoxville. Head coach Josh Heupel has the personnel to develop one of the nation's most explosive offenses, assuming young quarterback Nico Iamaleava can grow up quickly after starting the bowl game. It's early, but Iamaleava is the most talented Tennessee quarterback since Peyton Manning, and he has two of the best wide outs in the SEC joining him in Squirrel White and Bru McCoy, who should be healthy next fall after missing a big chunk of 2023. The offense is going to have to live up to the hype, because the defense is likely to be a work in progress once again, with key transfers at all three levels. Defensive coordinator Tim Banks was considered a candidate for several head coaching vacancies over the offseason, including inside the state at Middle Tennessee, but this fall he'll have to prove his worth with so much turnover.

15. USC Trojans

After a frustrating campaign that saw the Trojans slip to 8-5 and with rumors swirling about Lincoln Riley's future, USC's offseason so far has been decidedly ... normal. Now, that could change, but Riley appears to be staying put, and made the necessary change on the defensive side of the ball by firing Alex Grinch and bringing on D'Anton Lynn from crosstown rival UCLA. Lynn will have to overhaul a unit that couldn't stop anyone in 2023 and could be in store for a rude awakening as they enter Big Ten play, although there is no shortage of talent on that side of the ball. Offensively, no coach gets more from his playmakers than Riley, although there has been some question in the early offseason on who would get the first crack at replacing Caleb Williams at quarterback. It appears like it will be Miller Moss, who has been with the program for several seasons and threw for six touchdowns in the Holiday Bowl win, but USC also brought on UNLV transfer Jayden Maiava late in the process. Maiava broke the 3,000-yard threshold playing in a fun Rebel offense this past season and was initially pledged to Georgia before a sudden flip. He's likely to push Moss into the spring and deep into fall camp, which could add a layer of intrigue to this program as they begin a new day in a new league.

16. Utah Utes

Considering the circumstances, Utah should feel proud of the fact they were able to muster together an eight-win campaign. Quarterback Cam Rising and tight end Brant Kuithe missed the entire year and tailback Micah Bernard just about, robbing the Utes of three of their most important pieces offensively. The trio is all back and hopefully healthy for 2024, but the offense is still in for an adjustment after the transfer of leading rusher Ja'Quinden Jackson. Kyle Whittingham-coached teams always play elite defense and I suspect that will be the case again this year, although there are some big names moving on, notably safeties Cole Bishop and Sione Vaki. Fortunately, there's enough returning up front to ensure the Utes remain as stout and physical as ever, which should give them a leg up on the competition in the new-look Big 12.

17. Arizona Wildcats

Arizona was one of the biggest surprises in the country in 2023, as Jedd Fisch's team won ten games in just his third season at the helm. Even so, it feels like the Wildcats and Fisch aren't getting the type of national attention they deserve, pretty remarkable considering they won one single game less than two years ago. That could change with an impressive encore in 2024, and the roster has all the makings to do just that. Quarterback Noah Fifita played a key role in Arizona's turnaround and has the opportunity to build on it in 2024, particularly with top target Tetairoa McMillan set to return. Tailback Jonah Coleman is likely to join them, giving the Wildcats plenty of weapons at the skill positions, all operating behind an offensive line set to bring back just about everyone. The defense is set to experience some turnover and roster shakeup but finished this past season strong, which is likely to provide the necessary momentum they need to thrive in their move to the Big 12. 

18. Oklahoma Sooners

Yet another team set to begin life in a new conference, Oklahoma will be eager to show what they can do in the SEC after ruling the Big 12 for most of the 2010s and early 2020s. Head coach Brent Venables oversaw healthy improvements on both sides of the ball as the Sooners went 10-3, but the coaching staff still experienced shakeup over the offseason, with OC Jeff Lebby taking the Mississippi State and Venables parting with DC Ted Roof. Oklahoma is still going to score, with Jackson Arnold set to take over for Dillon Gabriel under center, but it's the defense that is always the X-factor in Norman. It's clear Venables felt that Roof wasn't the right fit to lead the Sooner defense into this new era, but the good news is that the personnel appears in fairly good shape. Oklahoma plugged holes through the portal up front and have plenty of contributors returning in the back-seven, including linebacker Danny Stutsman, who made the surprising decision to run it back for one final go with the Sooners. Still, it will be an adjustment as OU begins an SEC schedule, loaded with a November that includes road trips to Missouri and LSU, plus a home game with Alabama, but it's Venables has enough here to keep them in the conference title mix.

19. LSU Tigers

Despite a pair of ten-win seasons to open up his tenure and a Heisman performance from Jayden Daniels, Brian Kelly didn't miss around this offseason. He fired defensive coordinator Matt House and several key assistants, and is looking at a potentially splashy offensive coordinator hire after Mike Denbrock took the same job at Notre Dame. Whoever does take over at OC may not have Jayden Daniels or superstar wide out Malik Nabers, but Garrett Nussmeier has looked impressive in relief duties and appears ready to slide into a starting role. New faces will have to emerge out wide, but Nussmeier will have the benefit of working behind one of the SEC's best offensive lines, which helped supercharge Daniels' Heisman season. Blake Baker comes over from Missouri to run the defense and will look to breath new life into a group that felt lifeless throughout most of 2023. Can he get Harold Perkins back on track after a surprisingly quiet sophomore season? Rebuilding the secondary will also be a key priority after the Tigers missed on several transfers in the defensive backfield this past offseason.

20. Liberty Flames

Liberty's inclusion into a New Year's Six bowl game as the nation's Group of Five representative was certainly controversial, and a blowout loss to Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl seemed to prove many of the detractors correct. But, that shouldn't completely erase what was all in all a very successful first season in the Conference USA, which saw the Flames win a conference title and go 13-0. The early returns from the offseason have been promising, too - head coach Jamey Chadwell remains a hot commodity in the coaching carousel but decided to stay put, while quarterback Kaidon Salter is set to return after a brief moment testing his options in the portal. The defense will undergo a bit of a rebuilding stage, but the Liberty staff has been working hard in the portal, and the secondary returns ample experience, most notably at the cornerback spots. Add in a schedule that is once again buttery soft, it's not crazy to think Liberty could be in the mix for a spot in the expanded Playoff, especially with six conference champions locking down automatic berths.

21. Kansas Jayhawks

Kansas continued on their upwards trajectory in 2023, winning nine games - which becomes even more impressive when you consider that star QB Jalon Daniels missed most of the year with a back injury. Daniels is back and should be back close to 100 percent, giving the Jayhawks one of the most exciting players in the Big 12. He'll be joined by a host of proven playmakers, including tailback Devin Neal, and wide outs Lawrence Arnold and Quentin Skinner. They give new offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes a whole lot to play with as he takes over the reigns of the offense from Andy Kotelnicki, who toook the same role at Penn State. The big news on the defense is the departure of fearsome edge rusher Austin Booker after he tallied eight sacks for the Jayhawks in 2023. Fortunately, the secondary gives this unit a good starting point, as proven corners Cobee Bryant and Mello Dotson have both announced they'll be back in Lawrence next fall.

22. Louisville Cardinals

Jeff Brohm returned to his alma mater and promptly brought them to the ACC Championship Game, and his encore campaign could be even better. New faces will take center stage offensively with Jack Plummer and Jawhar Jordan set to leave, but Brohm's work in the portal should pay immediate dividends. Expect former Oregon and Texas Tech transfer Tyler Shough to get the first crack at the starting quarterback job, while Peny Boone arrives from Toledo to bolster the running back room. The defense should return a lot and is in line for significant improvement after an up-and-down 2023 season. Defensive end Ashton Gillotte is one of the most underrated defenders anywhere in the country after tallying 11 sacks last fall.

23. Oklahoma State Cowboys

For all the changes the Big 12 has seen and is yet to see, Mike Gundy remains a constant. The Oklahoma State head man is set to begin his 20th season in charge in Stillwater in 2024, and he'll do so with the help of his star tailback, Ollie Gordon. Gordon led all FBS rushers with 1,732 yards this past season and should be considered a preseason Heisman candidate entering next year. Fortunately, Gordon is not the only key Cowboy set to return, as QB Alan Bowman was granted another season of eligibility, and all five offensive linemen are expected to return. The defense loses a couple key names from a unit that was just about average across the board in 2023, but they'll be bolstered by the return of tackling machine Nickolas Martin at linebacker, who had 140 stops this past fall.

24. Tulane Green Wave

It felt like only a matter of time before Willie Fritz was going to move on from Tulane and he decided this offseason was the one to make the jump, taking the Houston job. However, the program rebounded nicely by snagging Troy head man Jon Sumrall, a rising name in the profession who should keep the momentum going here. Sumrall got an early win when he convinced Oregon transfer Ty Thompson to head on south, giving the Green Wave a gifted signal-caller who was considered a five-star prospect by some coming out of the high school ranks. Thompson will lead the offense, while the defense is expected to be in a good spot thanks to the likely return of linebacker Jesus Machado and several others throughout the front seven. Add in the fact that SMU's departure makes the Green Wave a clear favorite in the new-look American Athletic, expect Sumrall to hit the ground running and have this team in the mix for the expanded College Football Playoff field.

25. NC State Wolfpack

Dave Doeren's NC State program just keeps on consistently winning, and they're set up to succeed once again in 2024. With Brennan Armstrong graduating and M.J. Morris transferring, it's Grayson McCall time, as the former Coastal Carolina transfer makes the jump to the ACC. McCall is a unique quarterback but an extremely accomplished one, and he'll have plenty to work with. That includes wide out Kevin Concepcion, who was a revelation as a freshman by hauling in 71 passes for 839 yards. The defense will miss two program staples in Payton Wilson and Jaylon Scott, but appears to still be in fairly good shape. The defensive line returns loads of experience and while the secondary loses several key pieces, there is help coming in through the portal.

College Football Playoff National Championship Prediction 2023-24

J.J. McCarthy, Michigan

Monday night's National Championship Game will bring a sense of finality in more ways than one - not only will it conclude the 2023 college football season, it will be the final year a National Champion is determined from a four-team Playoff field, the last time Michigan & Washington face off before they become Big Ten foes (at least for the foreseeable future) and the final run for some of the sport's stars, such as Michael Penix, Blake Corum, and more. If that wasn't enough reason to tune in, the game will feature a fascinating clash of styles between the hard-nosed Wolverines and a fun-to-watch Huskies team that will throw the ball all over the field. Needless to say, the 2023 season should cap off in epic fashion between a pair of teams that deserve to be in the spotlight.

Michigan may enter as the slight favorite, but it's hard to deny that the Huskies feature the best player on the field in Michael Penix. After a record-setting season, Penix built on it with the most dominant quarterback performance in a Playoff game we've seen since Joe Burrow in 2019. He was throwing absolute lasers all over the field against a quality Texas defense, finishing with 430 yards of passing. Now, he gets his greatest test of the 2023 campaign in this Wolverine defense, which is led by an experienced and well-coached secondary. Michigan is just not a pass defense that's going to break down very often - they have elite defenders at every level and play an exceptionally disciplined brand of football. With that being said, Michigan has yet to face a vertical passing offense quite like Washington's. Even against some of the better opponents on their schedule, the Wolverines have faced teams that occasionally struggle to get the ball down the field through the air - that just isn't the case with Penix and his collection of receivers, including Rome Odunze, Ja'Lynn Polk, and Jalen McMillan. The chess match between Penix and this Michigan secondary will not only be a deciding factor, it's one of the best pure matchups we've seen on the year. Yet, Washington will still need their ground game to give their offense a semblance of balance, and the injury to Dillon Johnson in the semifinal is cause for concern. Johnson has been the unsung hero for Washington down the stretch, but left the Sugar Bowl early and has been limited in practice all week. It sounds like Johnson should play, but he'll be far from 100 percent, which could have an outsized impact in this one. For as dominant as Washington's pass offense is, Johnson plays such a key role in situational and short yardage moments - not having him fully healthy is the type of disadvantage that can swing even matchups such as this one. 

It should be a fascinating battle the other way, too, as a ground-and-pound Michigan offense will look to show what they can do against this Husky defense. The Wolverines aren't going to lean on the big play as much as Washington, but that's worked out just fine for them on the year. They play a much more methodical brand of football, on that might not be quite as exciting but is very effective. Quarterback J.J. McCarthy responded to his detractors with a stellar showing in the Rose Bowl win, and now looks to keep the momentum alive against a susceptible Washington secondary. Roman Wilson and Cornelius Johnson remain the top weapons on the perimeter, but I'm curious to see how ultra-versatile Semaj Morgan responds after a poor showing in the semifinal win. Morgan gives this Wolverine offense a dynamic that has been missing in recent years, but he'll have to prove he's ready for this stage. On the ground, Michigan is going to lean on their ground game until Washington proves they can consistently stop it, which means we are going to see a heavy dosage of Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards in this one. Those two operate behind a Michigan O-Line not quite at full strength, with Zak Zinter on the sidelines still after his horrific injury in the Ohio State game, but still playing excellent football. That battle in the trenches between Michigan and this Husky defensive front should be a good one - Washington may not have elite defensive numbers, but they've stepped up when needed and feature a front seven that should be able to put up a fight against the Wolverines. In particular, Bralen Trice, who is likely to be hearing his name called in the first round of the NFL Draft come this spring, was dominant in the semifinal and will look to create the chaos necessary to disrupt this Michigan offense.

There's plenty to like about this National Championship Game matchup, from the matchups on the field to the feelings of freshness from seeing two programs at this stage that haven't played for a National Title in some time. It also feels different than what we saw last year - we should have a competitive game that will likely be decided deep into the second half. I don't think you can go wrong picking either one of these teams based on what they've done this year and how they match up, but after four months of football, I remain steadfast in my belief that my preseason National Title pick Michigan is going to finish the job. This is the most well-rounded team in the country and for all the distractions off-the-field, the team has looked focused and hungry all season long. It feels like Michigan has been building to this eventual goal for some time now, and even though Washington is a worthy foe, I expect them to finish the job come Monday night.

The Pick: Michigan, 35 Washington, 31