Wednesday, November 25, 2020

College Basketball Preview 2020-21: Big Ten



Ayo Dosunmu, Illinois

The cancellation of the 2020 NCAA Tournament last March left the college basketball world in a state of limbo for the past eight months. However, with the NBA Draft in the books and the 2020-21 college basketball campaign set to tip off tomorrow, it appears that the sport is finally back in action. It won't be easy getting a season off the ground, or keep it going, but the hope is that the season will be able to finish off this time around. With this in mind, I focus my attention on the start of the Big Ten, perhaps the most balanced and deep conference in college basketball.


1. Iowa Hawkeyes

Key Returnees: F Luka Garza, G Jordan Bohannon, G/F Joe Wieskamp, G Joe Toussaint

At the top of the league there appears to be a three-way race between Iowa, Illinois and Wisconsin. The Hawkeyes are probably the smartest pick to take the conference, primarily because of the return of forward Luka Garza. Garza was a Wooden Award frontrunner throughout the 2019-20 season, and he won the Big Ten's Player of the Year award. Although the big man isn't flashy, he's proven to be highly productive against a wide range of defenders. The good news is that his supporting cast is rock-solid as well, as Joe Wieskamp, Jordan Bohannon, and Joe Toussaint all return. Wieskamp is the high-scoring wing every Final Four contender every team needs, while Bohannon and Toussaint lead an experienced and deep backcourt. The Hawkeyes are also hopeful two players who missed nearly all of last season step up alongside Garza up front. Redshirt freshman Patrick McCaffrey, Fran's son, has high-level talent but appeared in just two games in his first year on campus. Joining him will be lengthy forward Jack Nunge, who has essentially missed both of the last two seasons due to injury. 

Postseason Prediction: Elite Eight

2. Illinois Fighting Illini

Key Returnees: G/F Ayo Dosunmu, F/C Kofi Cockburn, G Trent Frazier

Brad Underwood's rebuild in Champaign continues apace, as the Illini finished fourth in the conference a season ago. Their ceiling appears even higher heading into '20-'21, as Ayo Dosunmu and Kofi Cockburn's decision to return likely raises their ceiling into a Top 10 team. Dosunmu is one of the most exciting players anywhere in college basketball, an explosive scorer that doesn't shy away from clutch moments. Cockburn was a little bit raw as a true freshman last season, but the seven-footer was still highly productive, putting up 13.3 PPG and 8.8 RPG. Those two will path the way for the Illini, but they also have plenty of help. Guard Trent Frazier can be extremely streaky but he's a three-year starter ready to finish off his Illinois career in a big way. In addition to Frazier, forward Giorgi Bezhanishvili and Division III transfer Austin Hutcherson should contribute. Don't be surprised if this Illinois squad is their best since the 2005 Final Four edition; they really are that talented, and Underwood has proven himself as one of the best in the Big Ten.

Postseason Prediction: Elite Eight

3. Wisconsin Badgers

Key Returnees: G Brad Davison, F Micah Potter, F Nate Reuvers, G D'Mitrik Trice

After a 6-6 straight to Big Ten play last year, Wisconsin won their final eight games to win a share of the league title. They'll be tough again in 2020-21, with one of the most experienced lineups in the conference. Guard Brad Davison has been highly controversial but highly effective, while D'Mitrik Trice was terrific down the stretch a year ago. The frontcourt might be even better, with former Ohio State transfer Micah Potter and junior Nate Reuvers. Expect senior Aleem Ford and sophomore Tyler Wahl to also play an increased role up front. Wahl didn't put up great shooting numbers in his first season in Madison, but he was a high energy guy that proved to be tremendous defensively. All in all, it's a fairly typical Badger team top-to-bottom. They might not be the most talented, but they play hard and are well-coached. If Reuvers and Potter can prove to be one of the better combos in the Big Ten, it wouldn't be shocking if they once again take at least a share of the league title.

Postseason Prediction: Sweet 16

4. Michigan State Spartans

Key Returnees: G Rocket Watts, F Malik Hall, G/F Aaron Henry, G/F Josh Langford

Michigan State loses two program staples in point guard Cassius Winston and big man Xavier Tillman, but Tom Izzo has proven he can reload as well as anybody in the league. Winston is obviously a major loss, as he was a four-year contributor and the floor general, while averaging nearly six assists per game for the Spartans. However, MSU is hopeful that sophomore Rocket Watts can take over PG duties, with likely some help from junior Foster Loyer. Backcourt depth is a slight concern beyond Watts and Loyer, without any other major contributor back in the fold. Names like Jack Hoiberg (yes, Fred's son) and newcomer A.J. Hoggard are likely to see hefty minutes. While that's a concern, it could be offset by the experience back on the wings and in the frontcourt. Aaron Henry and Gabe Brown have proven to be high quality wing weapons, and they could have further help in the form of Joshua Langford. Langford has dealt with injuries each of the last two seasons, but is one of the best in the Big Ten when fully healthy. If he's able to contribute, this Michigan State team becomes significantly tougher. The frontcourt should also be in good hands, as sophomore Malik Hall showed flashes last year and Marquette transfer Joey Hauser should contribute.

Postseason Prediction: Sweet 16

5. Rutgers Scarlet Knights

Key Returnees: G Geo Baker, C Myles Johnson, G/F Ron Harper Jr.

If not for the cancelled NCAA Tournament, Rutgers would've made their first appearance in the Big Dance since 1991. The good news is that they might be even better this season, with most of last year's core back in the fold. Guards Geo Baker and Jacob Young were inconsistent at times last year but still impact players who could carry the offense. The same could be said about wing Ron Harper Jr., who led the team in scoring a year ago, averaging 12.1 PPG. Up front, center Myles Johnson will act as the primary rim protector but don't be surprised if highly touted recruit Cliff Omoruyi sees plenty of minutes. Rutgers will once again be a very strong defensive team, one that plays a scrappy brand of basketball that works very well in the Big Ten. They ranked eighth in the nation in opponent field goal percentage a season ago and with most of that core back, they should be stout once again.

Postseason Prediction: NCAA Second Round

6. Michigan Wolverines

Key Returnees: F Isaiah Livers, G/F Franz Wagner, G Eli Brooks, F Brandon Johns Jr.

Michigan's first season in the post-John Beilein era was one of incredible highs and massive lows. After winning the Battle 4 Atlantis in November, the Wolverines rose to No. 4 in the nation. However, a brutal January dropped them out of the Top 25 completely, before they once again got hot towards the end of the season. Head coach Juwan Howard will hope for more consistency in 2020-21, but losing court general Zavier Simpson will not make it easier. In addition to Simpson, David DeJulius transferred, leaving UM relatively thin at point guard. That leaves an opportunity for true freshman Zeb Jackson to come in right away and make an impact. Joining Jackson in the backcourt will be sophomore Franz Wagner, as well as senior Eli Brooks. The frontcourt has a little bit more depth, and they also have a potential breakout candidate in Isaiah Livers. Livers is already an established piece of this lineup but now that he's completely healthy, he looks to be the go-to guy offensively. He'll be aided up front by fellow veteran Brandon Johns Jr., as well as freshman Hunter Dickinson.

Postseason Prediction: NCAA Second Round

7. Ohio State Buckeyes

Key Returnees: G C.J. Walker, G/F Duane Washington, F E.J. Liddell, F Kyle Young

The Buckeyes saw a bunch of roster turnover this past off-season, watching star Kaleb Wesson leave a year early for the NBA, as well as the transfers of Luther Muhammed and D.J. Carton. There's still enough pieces in place to be an NCAA Tournament squad, thanks in large part to the returns of C.J. Walker, E.J. Liddell and glue guy Kyle Young. There's also an influx of talent in the form of former Harvard center Seth Towns and Bucknell transplant Jimmy Sotos. Towns has the talent to be a real force under the rim, but it will be fascinating to see how he transitions from the Ivy League to the physical, relentless Big Ten. Sotos is going to be immediately be one of the top shooters on this Buckeye roster, and a skilled distributor. Despite being ranked No. 23 in the preseason poll, don't be surprised if Chris Holtmann once again surpasses expectations. In his three years with Ohio State he's made the NCAA Tournament's Second Round, and he probably would have made it again last season if the event hadn't been cancelled.

Postseason Prediction: NCAA Second Round

8. Indiana Hoosiers

Key Returnees: F Trayce Jackson-Davis, G Rob Phinisee, G Al Durham, C Joey Brunk

Entering his fourth season in Bloomington, Archie Miller may have his best Hoosier team yet. That is assuming Indiana is able to stay healthy, which has been the team's primary kryptonite over three largely underwhelming seasons under Miller. This roster has a good mix of talent, led by potential All-Big Ten talent Trayce Jackson-Davis. Jackson-Davis put up solid numbers a season ago and was part of the conference's All-Freshman Team but he could be even better. Rumor out of Bloomington is that he's bulked up and looks more confident heading into the new campaign. He'll need to form an imposing duo with center Joey Brunk if IU wants to compete with all the great big men the conference can throw at you. The backcourt isn't very high on star power but has a number of solid contributors, namely senior Al Durham. Overall, there's much more experience and depth than past Miller Indiana teams, which obviously bodes well. It still might be a tough task for this team to climb into the upper echelon of the league, but Miller's first NCAA Tournament appearance with this program should be on the horizon.

Postseason Prediction: NCAA First Round

9. Minnesota Golden Gophers

Key Returnees: G Marcus Carr, G/F Gabe Kalscheur, G/F Tre Williams, F/C Eric Curry

Despite losing star big man Daniel Oturu early to the NBA Draft, Minnesota came out of the off-season as winners. Guard Marcus Carr removed his name from the NBA early entry list and opted to come back for his junior season, likely asserting himself as one of the top returning guards in the league. In addition, Richard Pitino landed a number of big name transfers, including Drake's Liam Robbins and Utah's Both Gach. Robbins is one of the best shot-blockers anywhere in college basketball and fits a major need now that Oturu is gone, while Gach is a Minnesota native who started 25 games last year for the Utes. The Gophers are also hopeful that sophomore Isaiah Ihnen and senior Eric Curry are able to help replicate Oturu's impact. Ihnen was incredibly raw as a true freshman last season but made major strides by the end of the year, while Curry's promising career has been absolutely derailed by injuries. With so many fresh faces, the pressure is on for Pitino to quickly gel this group together. If not, it seems highly likely it will be the end of the road for the 38-year old, who is currently 127-108 with the program.

Postseason Prediction: NCAA First Round

10. Purdue Boilermakers

Key Returnees: F Aaron Wheeler, F/C Trevion Williams, G Sasha Stefanovic

Purdue will be among the most interesting teams in the Big Ten this winter. They were hit hard over the off-season by graduation and transfers, losing long-time contributors Nojel Eastern and Matt Haarms. With that being said, head coach Matt Painter remains one of the best in the conference and he's proven he can work his magic time and time again in West Lafayette. There's still enough to keep this team dangerous, namely forwards Aaron Wheeler and Trevion Williams. Williams is really an interesting case; his career took off last season, but he also got in his own way too often. Purdue is hopeful he is in better shape, as he got outworked by elite bigs too often a year ago. The backcourt is really thin, and will lean heavily on one of the few remaining veterans, Sasha Stefanovic. Stefanovic is a Painter guard to the tee as a sharpshooter and good decision-maker, but how does he handle more of the offense being run through him? The Boilermakers are almost inevitably poised to take a step back, but it also wouldn't be shocking if this No. 10 ranking ends up being far too low.

Postseason Prediction: NCAA First Round

11. Maryland Terrapins

Key Returnees: G Eric Ayala, G Darryl Morsell, G Aaron Wiggins, C Chol Marial

Maryland is another team that could be poised to take a step back, possibly a pretty major one after winning a share of the Big Ten Title last spring. They lose their best two players, lead guard Anthony Cowan and bruising big man Jalen Smith. Cowan ran the Terrapin offense for four years in College Park, while Smith was so impressive as a sophomore he rose to be a Top 10 NBA Draft selection. Their departures mean that head coach Mark Turgeon will be forced to lean on a core of Eric Ayala, Darryl Morsell, and Aaron Wiggins. It's a rock-solid trio that will keep Maryland very competitive, but it's short on a real go-to guy. Maryland is also really going to struggle up front without Smith. 7'2" center Chol Marial flashed as a freshman last year but he's still so incredibly raw, while Galin Smith (no relation to Jalen) is more of a complementary piece than leading one. Turgeon should still have the Terrapins fighting, but this team could really struggle in such a balanced and tough league. I don't expect a complete disaster, but slipping out of the NCAA Tournament seems like a real possibility.

Postseason Prediction: NIT

12. Penn State Nittany Lions

Key Returnees: G Izaiah Brockington, G Jamari Wheeler, G Myreon Jones

The hopes for a successful Penn State basketball season took a hit when Pat Chambers abruptly resigned around a month ago after past insensitive comments surfaced. That leaves interim head coach Jim Ferry forced to pick up the pieces in the midst of a global pandemic, with a roster that was already poised to take a slight step back with Lamar Stevens and Mike Watkins departing. Ferry still does have an intriguing backcourt, spearheaded by guards Myreon Jones and Izaiah Brockington. However, the big problem will be a frontcourt that struggled last season, even with Watkins in the fold. Sophomore Seth Lundy and senior John Harrar are really the only two experienced options, and neither strike much fear into opposing teams. The Nittany Lions may still be interesting if this backcourt can keep things close, but any chances of an NCAA Tournament berth lean on the frontcourt undergoing some magical transition.

Postseason Prediction: NIT 

13. Nebraska Cornhuskers

Key Returnees: G/F Thorir Thorbjarnarson

It was unsurprisingly a brutal debut campaign for Fred Hoiberg, as Nebraska went 7-25 overall and was dead last in the Big Ten at 2-18. There's significant turnover on the roster heading into 2020-21, with a host of transfers looking to make an impact. That list includes Pitt transfer Trey McGowens, West Virginia transfer Teddy Allen, and Western Illinois transfer Kobe Webster. That group will join one of the few holdovers from the Tim Miles era: Icelandic guard Thorir Thorbjarnarson. Thorbjarnarson played in all 31 contests for Nebraska last season and while he isn't your prototypical go-to guy, he was fairly productive. Beyond him, the lack of proven experience is an obvious concern. Hoiberg has always leaned into the transfer market heavily, all the way back to his Iowa State days. But, to expect that strategy to work wonders in Year Two in a brutally tough Big Ten is unrealistic. The 'Huskers may be more interesting than last year's group, but don't expect any postseason berth just yet.

Postseason Prediction: None

14. Northwestern Wildcats

Key Returnees: F Miller Kopp, F Pete Nance, C Ryan Young

Head coach Chris Collins has done a great job getting Northwestern to some respectability in the Big Ten but as he looks ahead to the 2020-21 campaign, he could be staring his fourth straight year without a postseason berth. This roster does have some interesting pieces, namely forwards Miller Kopp and Pete Nance. Kopp started all 31 last year for the Wildcats and averaged 13.1 PPG while shooting nearly 40 percent from three. There isn't anything particularly flashy about his game, but he's a player to keep an eye on as a contributor. Nance and center Ryan Young are at least serviceable up front, but the backcourt lacks much playmaking potential. Guard Pat Spencer was their top weapon in the backcourt last fall, as a former star lacrosse player who spent his final collegiate eligibility with Northwestern. His departure means that guys like Boo Buie and junior Ryan Greer are going to have to step up. This Wildcats team will still play hard under Collins, but there just isn't enough there to warrant them much higher than the 14 ranking.

Postseason Prediction: None


All-Big Ten Team

First Team

G Ayo Dosunmu, Illinois

G Marcus Carr, Minnesota

F Ron Harper Jr., Rutgers

F Micah Potter, Wisconsin

F/C Luka Garza, Iowa

Second Team

G C.J. Walker, Ohio State

G Joe Wieskamp, Iowa

F Aaron Henry, Michigan State

F Trayce Jackson-Davis, Indiana

F/C Kofi Cockburn, Illinois



Friday, November 20, 2020

2020 College Football Picks: Week Twelve

 

Ty Fryfogle, Indiana

Current Picks Record: 29-11 (3-3 Upset)


(#9) Indiana Hoosiers @ (#3) Ohio State Buckeyes

Line: Ohio State -20.5

Over/Under: 66.5

Indiana has been one of the great stories of the 2020 college football season, off to a 4-0 start and ranked Top 10 nationally. They have a legitimate shot at a Big Ten East Title, but the team standing in their way is one they haven't beat since 1988. However, this Hoosiers team won't back away from a challenge, and they have a roster that can compete. QB Michael Penix Jr. leads an efficient and balanced offense that should test an Ohio State secondary still figuring things out. The Buckeyes need to find a way to stop the 1-2 combo of Whop Philyor and Ty Fryfogle, which has been an absolute headache for opposing defenses this fall. Fryfogle is coming off a 200-yard showing in Indiana's 24-0 dismantling of Michigan State. Ohio State's front seven has talent and experience, so we will see how Penix handles it. This is a guy that has looked so composed and poised all year, but faces his ultimate test in Ohio State. 

Indiana's defense has also been terrific, helping lead the Hoosiers to a +8 in the turnover margin, tied for second nationally. The thing is, they aren't going to get much opportunities for turnovers against Justin Fields, who simply doesn't throw interceptions. How will this Indiana defense handle an offense like this if they can't turn the ball over? Ohio State can also hit them with their backfield duo of Trey Sermon and Master Teague. Neither is at the level of J.K. Dobbins, but they add a little bit more versatility to this offense, giving OSU even more looks they can give. The Hoosiers have to deal with Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson outside, which should challenge an Indiana secondary that is short on star power. Can Indiana also hold up along the trenches? Tom Allen has done a good job building up the defensive front, but they face a Buckeye offensive line full of future NFL guys.

Vegas seems to believe Ohio State will keep on rolling against the Hoosiers, picking the Buckeyes by three touchdowns. I'd be surprised if Indiana isn't able to cover that spread, even if I think the odds are stacked against them trying to get a victory here. They might not come close to OSU in terms of talent, but Allen's kids play hard, and they do some interesting things offensively. The perfect season will likely come to a close here, but I think Indiana puts up a stronger fight than most may believe.

The Pick: Ohio State, 34 Indiana, 20


(#10) Wisconsin Badgers @ (#19) Northwestern Wildcats

Line: Wisconsin -7.5

Over/Under: 44

While Indiana-Ohio State essentially operates as a de-facto Big Ten East Championship Game, the West Division could also be decided this Saturday. Wisconsin returned to the field this past weekend for the first time in two weeks and blew out Michigan 49-11. They remain the heavy favorite in the West, even with Northwestern improving to 4-0 last week. The Badgers offense has been a little bit more explosive than usual in the first two weeks, but Northwestern is the type of team that can bog down an offense. It's probably going to be an exceptionally brutal game in the trenches, where Wisconsin still appears to hold a slight edge. I am curious to see what Badger tailback emerges from the crowded backfield. So far they've used a committee approach, but is true freshman Jalen Berger becoming the go-to guy? Either way, Graham Mertz must still have a productive afternoon. Perhaps that doesn't mean throwing for 300 yards, but instead not turning the ball over and putting Wisconsin in good position. The Northwestern secondary appears solid, but not dominant by any stretch.

The Wildcats opened up their season by pummeling Maryland 43-3, but since then they've had three tight wins. The offense in each bout has been okay, but far from an elite group. QB Peyton Ramsey, a former Indiana transfer, is a rock-solid Big Ten but how much will he test this Badger defense? Ramsey does have some dual threat abilities that could make things interesting, but his supporting cast has been underwhelming. Isaiah Bowser and Drake Anderson operate as a "lightning and thunder" group out of the backfield, but it's reasonable to think they'll have a tough time against a UW rush defense that once again looks like they are one of the best in the nation. The better option might be through the air, although Ramsey has to make smart decisions. The Badgers confused Michigan's Joe Milton early and forced quick turnovers, allowing them to build a quick lead. In a ball control game, if Northwestern allows Wisconsin to gain an early lead and choke the clock, they're going to be in a bad spot.

Fans of defensive football who have been frustrated with the lack of defense in college football to begin 2020 may take solace in this one. Expect your prototypical Big Ten slugfest, a game of physical defense and ball control. The over/under for this game stands at 44, and yet I still think there is a good chance these teams won't hit that mark. Northwestern does know how to close out tight games and they are at home, but the smart money is still on Wisconsin here. Although their first two opponents haven't exactly been the conference's elite, they've looked very impressive. They simply have more weapons on both sides of the ball, enough to close out this game.

The Pick: Wisconsin, 24 Northwestern, 14


(#14) Oklahoma State Cowboys @ (#18) Oklahoma Sooners

Line: Oklahoma -7

Over/Under: 59

Once again, the "Bedlam" rivalry between Oklahoma and Oklahoma State has major Big 12 implications. The Cowboys are locked in currently at second in the conference, but they face an Oklahoma team that appears to be trending up at the right time. After a potentially disastrous start to 2020 the Sooners have righted the ship, winning their last four games. The primary reason has been the offense finding their rhythm, dropping 62 points in each of their last two bouts. Quarterback Spencer Rattler hasn't been perfect but he's making smarter decisions and letting the game come to him. It also certainly helps when his supporting cast keeps getting better. Tailback Rhamondre Stevenson has returned from suspension and provided a spark, while wide receivers Marvin Mims and Charleston Rambo have stepped up on the perimeter. Oklahoma might need their full offensive strength for this game; Oklahoma State's defense is the best they've had a long time. A pair of linebackers, Amen Ogbongbemiga and Malcolm Rodriguez, have proven that they can impact the game every time they step up on the field. Oklahoma's tempo should still be able to create opportunities, but don't be surprised if the Cowboys do better against this offense than you'd assume.

The Oklahoma State offense has never quit hit its stride so far this 2020, but they still have an abundance of weapons. Back Chuba Hubbard and wide out Tylan Wallace remain two of the best at their position, even if Hubbard has been held in check this year compared to 2019. The Oklahoma State aerial attack is going to be really fascinating to watch. Quarterback Spencer Sanders is back and fully healthy as the starter, but he continues to be very streaky. Tylan Wallace should get his chances on the outside against a very bad Oklahoma secondary, but is there someone else that will be able to step up as well? Despite having Wallace, the lack of a No. 2 option has limited the Cowboy pass offense to a 76th overall ranking. Dillon Stoner may be able to open things up, but Oklahoma State may still need more. The Sooners are still not a good tackling team, especially in space. OSU doesn't have to do anything too creative but simply get their weapons in space. 

Bedlam has long been a wacky, fun rivalry. Oklahoma State has closed the gap on Oklahoma program-wise, but the rivalry remains lopsided. The Sooners have won the last five meetings, with the last Cowboy win coming in an overtime thriller in 2014. This is one of the better Oklahoma State teams in recent memory, but the Sooners remain my pick. It may be a little bit boring to once again side with the favorite, but the Sooners are starting to really hit their stride, and the Cowboys may be worse than their 5-1 record indicates. 

The Pick: Oklahoma, 38 Oklahoma State, 34


Other Picks

(#21) Liberty @ NC State: Liberty, 31 NC State, 23

(#4) Clemson @ Florida State: Clemson, 52 Florida State, 14

(#7) Cincinnati @ UCF: Cincinnati, 37 UCF, 27

Upset: Utah, 27 USC, 21

Double Upset: Appalachian State, 35 Coastal Carolina, 24

Tuesday, November 17, 2020

NBA Draft 2020: Top 40 Big Board

 

LaMelo Ball, No. 1 

1. LaMelo Ball, PG, Australia

Strengths: Elite-level passing ability, tremendous feel for the game, ideal size for modern NBA

Weaknesses: Defensive inconsistency, questionable shooting, off-the-court concerns

Ceiling: NBA All-Star

Bust Potential: High

With just a few days to go until the 2020 NBA Draft, it seems like the basketball community is completely split on La'Melo Ball. The youngest Ball brother, La'Melo has been a well-known name since his middle school days, taking unconventional routes in the U.S. and overseas so far in his professional career. The professional experience should pay dividends for Ball even though he wasn't playing against elite competition, but how does his game translate to the NBA? At the very least, his passing ability and court vision should adjust. Much like his older brother Lonzo, La'Melo is the type of unselfish, skilled passer that makes his teammates better. His jump shot is a concern at this point, but it has become more polished over the last few years and if he finds the right fit, I expect it to come. The biggest question when it comes to La'Melo is not actually about him, but about his family. Lavar Ball isn't the news machine he once was when Lonzo was first coming out of UCLA, but he's still one of the best known basketball dads in the country, for all the wrong reasons. Any team that takes La'Melo has to contend with Lavar, one of the primary reasons you'll see him mocked anywhere from No. 1 overall to outside the Top 5.

2. Anthony Edwards, G, Georgia

Strengths: Prolific scoring potential, ability to get to the rim and finish, solid shooting numbers

Weaknesses: Forces too many shots, not a good decision-maker, doesn't make his teammates better

Ceiling: NBA All-Star

Bust Potential: Moderate

Anthony Edwards is widely considered the safest prospect of the top couple names on the board, mainly because he has a larger body of work in the United States than La'Melo or James Wiseman. Edwards also put up huge numbers while at Georgia, averaging 19.1 PPG and 5.2 RPG. There's a lot to like about his game; he'll play with intensity every minute he's on the court, and he has proven he can score off-the-dribble and create his own looks. The big problem I have with him is that he often falls into this tunnel vision mode where he'll force up shots or force bad passes. It looked like he felt he had to do it all at Georgia, and pressed too hard at times. That resulted in some poor shooting and efficiency numbers; Edwards was 40% from the field in 2019-2020, and under 30% from three. I think he's a better shooter than those numbers might appear on the surface, but he has to learn how to play within himself and in an NBA offense. I fear he'll go inside the Top 5 to a bad team where he once again feels like he has to do it all offensively. That won't be good for his development now, and in the long-term.

3. Obi Toppin, F, Dayton

Strengths: World-class athleticism, can play multiple positions, proven shooting ability

Weaknesses: Lower ceiling when compared to others, free throw shooting 

Ceiling: NBA Starter

Bust Potential: Low

Obi Toppin is viewed as the "old man" (he's still just 22) in this Draft, which could result in him dropping. That may seem unfair, but the fact of the matter is that he doesn't have the potential of some of the younger names you'll see dotting the top of this Draft. With that being said, he doesn't have the same bust potential either. He proved while at Dayton that he could score, rebound, and defend all at very high levels. His shooting numbers were also really strong, although you could make the argument they were slightly inflated because he didn't shoot a ton, averaging under one per game. Free throw shooting might also need a little bit of work, but shouldn't be considered a major knock against him. Don't be surprised if this guy is a Rookie of the Year favorite; his skills are already well-rounded, and he should be able to fit in anywhere fairly nicely. 

4. Deni Avdija, F, Israel

Strengths: Size and length, versatility, really intelligent basketball player

Weaknesses: Needs to add weight to his frame, wingspan is below average

Ceiling: NBA All-Star

Bust Potential: Moderate

 Considered the top International prospect in this year's Draft, Deni Avdija is quite an interesting name to watch because he doesn't have a ton of game tape. Scouts are fascinated with his blend of size, offensive versatility and shooting potential, even if his numbers while at Maccabi Tel Aviv don't blow you away. He does play basketball like a seasoned vet even though he's just 19, as an adept passer that understands his role and does it well. However, he will need time to adjust to the physicality and athleticism of the NBA, two things Avdija is not known for. The defense also might not be where it needs to be right away but if he's able to bulk up, the tools are there for him. Hopefully wherever he lands is patient with him; I think he may struggle in his first two years in the league before he's able to really take off.

5. James Wiseman, F/C, Memphis

Strengths: Classic seven-foot rim protector, elite athlete, offensive upside

Weaknesses: Has played very little beyond high school ball, will not space the floor

Ceiling: NBA All-Star

Bust Potential: Moderate

James Wiseman is widely viewed as the top true big man in this cycle, but that doesn't mean he isn't without concerns. The strengths here are clear: Wiseman averaged three blocks per game in his college minutes, and he'll be a rim protector from the get-go. He's also a great athlete that should be able to run the floor, plus he displayed pretty impressive footwork and touch for his age. But, Wiseman ended up playing just 69 minutes at Memphis before be was ruled ineligible. Most of the game tape you have to go off of is from his high school days, where he dominated competition because he was so much bigger and athletic than others. That certainly won't be the case in the NBA, where he's going to have to learn different moves and techniques in the post than simply overpowering his opponents. The shooting also is not there at all, and I don't think it ever will be. The most we will likely ever seen Wiseman outside the paint is hitting a spot-up mid-range jumper, but he'll never be a big man that can go outside the three-point line and hit shots. He seems like the classic case of a guy that probably would go No. 1 in the early 2000s, but the NBA has evolved. As a big you have to do so many things nowadays, and he's still so limited. If this wasn't a pretty weak Draft, he would not be in my Top 5.

6. Tyrese Haliburton, G, Iowa State

Strengths: Tremendous playmaking ability, ideal size, impact player defensively

Weaknesses: Coming off a season-ending injury, shot needs refinement

Ceiling: NBA Starter

Bust Potential: Low

Playing on a bad Iowa State team, Tyrese Haliburton didn't get a ton of national attention this past season, but his numbers show the impact he made. He averaged 15.2 PPG, 6.5 APG and 2.5 SPG in 22 games before losing the end of the year to a wrist injury. He went from a bench player for ISU into the team's primary source of offense, setting up his teammates constantly and being their main scoring threat. What I love about Haliburton is that he plays both ends so well; he's a really skilled offensive weapon but his defense is also really impressive. It's not just the steals, but his ability impact what opposing teams want to do. Much like Toppin, he probably doesn't have the ceiling of others near the top of this Draft, but I would be shocked if he busted. If he does indeed fall outside the Top 5, I think he will end up being quite the steal.

7. Onyeka Okongwu, F/C, USC

Strengths: Terrific mobility for his position, floor-spacing potential, rim protection

Weaknesses: Still raw offensively, slightly undersized

Ceiling: NBA Starter

Bust Potential: Moderate

Like Tyrese Haliburton, Onyeka Okongwu didn't get a ton of mainstream attention during his lone season of college basketball, but he certainly caught the eye of NBA personnel. Unlike Wiseman, who is more of a classic big, Okongwu seems like the type of prospect we are going to see more and more of in the modern NBA. He's a mobile big that can run the floor extremely well and while he may won't step outside and shoot many threes, he can hit a jumper. Okongwu is also a skilled defender that should be able to not only rack up blocks, but also contribute steals due to his quickness. His offensive game still does need some polish, but that's to be expected of a 19 year old. I think he has a chance to go a lot higher than most people realize, possibly even rising into the Top 3.

8. Devin Vassell, G/F, Florida State

Strengths: Three-point shooting, two-way potential, good rebounder for his position

Weaknesses: Relatively low ceiling, doesn't get to free throw line as much as he should

Ceiling: NBA Starter

Bust Potential: Low

While Devin Vassell's Florida State teammate Patrick Williams is likely to go higher than him, it's Vassell who I prefer. After a quiet freshman season coming off the bench for the Seminoles, Vassell had a breakout '19-'20, where he averaged 12.7 points per game on 49% shooting. He's the type of "3 and D" prospect that NBA scouts adore, but he can do more than just shoot threes and defend. Vassell is also a skilled rebounder and solid passer who can fit in nearly any offensive system. There's also not a lot of weaknesses to point to from the FSU product. You'd like to see him get to the free throw line more often than he does, but it's definitely not a major problem at this point in his career.

9. Killian Hayes, PG, France

Strengths: Good size for his position, skilled ball-handler, smooth athlete

Weaknesses: Weak right hand, decision-making needs a lot of work

Ceiling: NBA All-Star

Bust Potential: Moderate

Killian Hayes is another prospect that you'll see a lot of disagreements on amongst NBA fans and media. Some view him as a top prospect in this Draft, while others see a fringe lottery selection. I'm stuck somewhere in the middle; there's a lot to like about Hayes but he needs plenty of work. He does have the potential to be a really fine court general who can run an offense, and you can't teach his size (6'5", 6'8" wingspan). The primary problems are his decision-making and fit, as he can often play out of control, and he needs a certain type of offensive system that can open lanes for him. He's an okay shooter who can create opportunities for himself, but that will also need more work. The good news is that Hayes is a young 19 years old, so there is a lot of upside to work with. If he's still available around the back-end of the lottery, he seems worth the risk.

10. Precious Achiuwa, F, Memphis

Strengths: High energy guy, elite rebounder on both offensive and defensive glass, offensive upside

Weaknesses: Not a floor spacer, somewhat of a tweener

Ceiling: NBA Starter

Bust Potential: Moderate

It was supposed to be James Wiseman's year on Memphis this past season, but it was Precious Achiuwa instead that was the main offensive weapon on the Tigers. Achiuwa is a fierce competitor that goes 110% every time he steps on the court. There's nothing very flashy about his game, but he's still able to get the job done. He averaged a double-double this past season (15.8 PPG, 10.8 RPG) and also made contributions on the defensive end, averaging nearly two blocks a game. He's going to be an instant impact player on the glass and his offensive game has potential, even if it's far from perfect at this point. I don't ever envision him being a stretch four, but his shooting numbers in college weren't dreadful by any means. Achiuwa may not have the star potential of others in this cycle, but he's the type of prospect that I see having a lengthy 10-15 year career in the league.

11. Patrick Williams, F, Florida State

Strengths: Massive frame ready for NBA, superb athlete, significant defensive potential

Weaknesses: Played just 22.5 MPG at FSU, not an impact player just yet

Ceiling: NBA All-Star

Bust Potential: Moderate

12. Saddiq Bey, F, Villanova

Strengths: Really good shooter who hit 45% of his threes in college, mobile athlete, skilled finisher around the rim

Weaknesses: Lower ceiling, questionable fit in certain NBA offenses

Ceiling: NBA Starter

Bust Potential: Low

13. Isaac Okoro, G/F, Auburn

Strengths: Incredibly high motor, elite defender, offensive tools are in place

Weaknesses: Still so raw offensively at this point, will likely never be a good shooter

Ceiling: NBA All-Star

Bust Potential: High

14. Cole Anthony, PG, UNC

Strengths: Diverse offensive game, fearless scorer, very flexible finisher

Weaknesses: Decision-making questionable, not efficient, three-point shot needs work

Ceiling: NBA All-Star

Bust Potential: Moderate

15. Nico Mannion, PG, Arizona

Strengths: Tremendous passing ability & instincts, creative offensive player, defensive upside

Weaknesses: Three-point shot needs work, not as athletic as others at his position

Ceiling: NBA Starter

Bust Potential: Moderate

16. Kira Lewis, PG, Alabama

Strengths: Incredibly quick, explosive first step, solid shooter who continues to grow

Weaknesses: Shot creation must improve at next level, needs to bulk up

Ceiling: NBA Starter

Bust Potential: Low

17. Tyrell Terry, G, Stanford

Strengths: Explosive scorer, tremendous shooter from three and free throw, feel for the game

Weaknesses: Unclear whether he's a PG or SG, not an elite athlete

Ceiling: NBA All-Star

Bust Potential: Low

18. Aaron Nesmith, G, Vanderbilt

Strengths: Smooth shooting stroke, ideal size for modern wing, underrated rebounding ability

Weaknesses: Injury concerns, not an elite athlete, not a great passer

Ceiling: NBA Starter

Bust Potential: Moderate

19. Jalen Smith, F/C, Maryland

Strengths: Rim-running ability, floor spacing potential, perfect build for modern big with 7'2" wingspan

Weaknesses: Improvements needed in post game, still raw in various areas, defensive inconsistencies

Ceiling: NBA Starter

Bust Potential: Low

20. Daniel Oturu, F/C, Minnesota

Strengths: Continues to grow outside shooting, physical specimen who has ideal NBA frame, very nimble for his size

Weaknesses: Must improve at free throw line, occasionally can get into quick foul trouble

Ceiling: NBA Starter

Bust Potential: Low

21. Tyrese Maxey, G, Kentucky

Strengths: Explosive scoring potential, can play both guard spots, good free throw shooter

Weaknesses: Unbelievably streaky, gets lost out there at times, defense needs work

Ceiling: NBA Starter

Bust Potential: Moderate

22. R.J. Hampton, G, New Zealand

Strengths: Professional experience, tremendous ball-handler, good size and length for his position

Weaknesses: Still very limited offensively, lacks confidence to be a go-to scorer

Ceiling: NBA Starter

Bust Potential: Moderate

23. Jahmi'us Ramsey, G, Texas Tech

Strengths: Well-built guard who's very tough, can knock down any jump shot, versatility on both ends

Weaknesses: Questionable shot selection, not really a true point guard, must become a better decision-maker

Ceiling: NBA Starter

Bust Potential: Moderate

24. Josh Green, G/F, Arizona

Strengths: Classic "3 and D" skillset, smooth shooter, can play a number of different positions

Weaknesses: Not elite in any one category, must become more consistent

Ceiling: NBA Starter

Bust Potential: Low

25. Vernon Carey, C, Duke

Strengths: Powerful and imposing frame ready for the NBA, nice touch underneath, skilled rebounder

Weaknesses: Will not be a floor spacer, fairly streaky offensively, free throw shooting must improve

Ceiling: NBA Starter

Bust Potential: Moderate

26. Malachi Flynn, G, San Diego State

Strengths: Proven leader who knows how to win, crafty and well-rounded offensive game, proven shooter

Weaknesses: Average athleticism, older compared to most in this Draft, slightly undersized

Ceiling: NBA Role Player

Bust Potential: Low

27. Alexsej Pokusevski, F/C, Serbia

Strengths: Seven-footer with 7'3" wingspan and 9'1" standing reach, great body control despite his size, very polished offensively for an 18-year old

Weaknesses: Thin frame that needs to add muscle, post game needs refinement

Ceiling: NBA Starter

Bust Potential: Moderate

28. Zeke Nnaji, F/C, Arizona

Strengths: Great mobility for his size, elite rebounder with fabulous instincts, high work ethic

Weaknesses: Turnovers can be a problem, defensive technique could use work

Ceiling: NBA Role Player

Bust Potential: Low

29. Theo Maledon, G, France

Strengths: Intelligent basketball player with great feel for the game, excellent pick-and-roll player

Weaknesses: Disappears at times, jump shot is pretty average, very foul prone

Ceiling: NBA Starter

Bust Potential: Moderate

30. Desmond Bane, G/F, TCU

Strengths: Excellent shooter who has hit over 40% from three every year in college, can create his own shot, decent athlete

Weaknesses: Average upside overall, small wingspan that could hurt him defensively

Ceiling: NBA Role Player

Bust Potential: Low

31. Yamar Madar, PG, Israel

Strengths: Incredibly high energy guy, never-ending motor, skilled passer

Weaknesses: Average athleticism compared to NBA, shooting is suspect

Ceiling: NBA Role Player

Bust Potential: Moderate

32. Jaden McDaniels, F, Washington

Strengths: Former five-star recruit with loads of potential, built like an NBA pro, floor spacing potential

Weaknesses: Underwhelming in lone collegiate season, raw skill set offensively, fit in NBA offense

Ceiling: NBA Starter

Bust Potential: High

33. Payton Pritchard, PG, Oregon

Strengths: One of the most clutch players in recent college basketball history, skilled distributor, catch-and-shoot sniper

Weaknesses: Average upside long-term, undersized for the modern NBA

Ceiling: NBA Role Player

Bust Potential: Low

34. Leandro Bolmaro, G, Argentina

Strengths: Well-built guard who stands 6'6", versatility offensively, excellent transition scorer

Weaknesses: Needs work defensively, needs to bulk up, streaky shooter

Ceiling: NBA Starter

Bust Potential: Moderate

35. Tre Jones, PG, Duke

Strengths: Proven court general, one of the best defenders in this Draft, extremely efficient

Weaknesses: Suspect three-point shooter, not a shot creator, limited long-term upside

Ceiling: NBA Role Player

Bust Potential: Low

36. Tyler Bey, F, Colorado

Strengths: Versatile forward, can defend multiple positions, two-way contributor

Weaknesses: Unlikely to bring floor spacing ability, not a great passer

Ceiling: NBA Role Player

Bust Potential: Low

37. Immanuel Quickley, G, Kentucky

Strengths: Lengthy 6'9" wingspan, reigning SEC Player of the Year, skilled shooter

Weaknesses: Limited offensive skill set, defensive concerns, undersized for the two-guard

Ceiling: NBA Role Player

Bust Potential: Low

38. Isaiah Stewart, F/C, Washington

Strengths: Active presence around the rim, hard-nosed defender, shoots well at the free throw line

Weaknesses: Needs to work on body control, occasionally foul prone, won't stretch the floor

Ceiling: NBA Role Player

Bust Potential: Moderate

39. Grant Riller, G, Charleston

Strengths: Prolific scorer, fabulous isolation scorer, excellent on-ball defender

Weaknesses: Very undersized for modern NBA (6'1"), didn't play against elite competition in the Colonial Athletic Association

Ceiling: NBA Role Player

Bust Potential: Low

40. Cassius Stanley, G/F, Duke

Strengths: Bouncy athlete with top vertical in Draft, great rebounder for his position, upside as a shooter

Weaknesses: Defensive mechanics need work, turnover problems, consistency remains a problem

Ceiling: NBA Role Player

Bust Potential: Moderate

Friday, November 13, 2020

NBA Mock Draft 2020: Edition 4

Anthony Edwards, No. 3 to Charlotte

 

1. Minnesota Timberwolves

LaMelo Ball, G, Australia

Few NBA Draft prospects in recent memory have been as polarizing as LaMelo Ball. The youngest of a controversial family, Ball has been playing overseas since his early high school days. That type of experience has allowed him to mature on and off the court, as well as continue to grow as a floor leader. He's still has some flaws, but his court vision and feel for the game are reminiscent of an NBA veteran. Assuming Minnesota stays firm and doesn't trade down, he seems like the most likely pick, assuming he can play with D'Angelo Russell in this backcourt.

2. Golden State Warriors

James Wiseman, F/C, Memphis

With the T-Wolves going for La'Melo, Golden State has their choice between James Wiseman and Anthony Edwards here. I rank Edwards above Wiseman in my rankings, but the short-term Memphis Tiger is at a need position. The Warriors have lacked a true rim presence beyond Draymond Green, and Wiseman's ability to run the floor should be valuable in this offense.

3. Charlotte Hornets

Anthony Edwards, G, Georgia

Even though they already have an abundance of youngsters in this backcourt (Malik Monk, Terry Rozier, Devonte Graham) Charlotte really shouldn't overthink this selection. Anthony Edwards didn't get much help while at Georgia, but he proved he could provide an instant scoring spark when needed. His shooting may need some refinement, but the physical gifts are certainly there, and he has some of the highest upside in this Draft.

4. Chicago Bulls

Onyeka Okongwu, F/C, USC

Once we get past the supposed top three in this Draft, things get really interesting for Chicago. The Bulls have a solid young core in place for new head man Billy Donovan, but they're still clearly a few pieces away. A guard could be a possibility, but the most likely route for Chicago is USC's Onyeka Okongwu. Although he didn't get much national attention playing for the Trojans, Okongwu caught scouts eyes with his defensive versatility, athleticism, and decent shooting stroke. He's the type of valuable prospect you can plug into nearly any role.

5. Cleveland Cavaliers

Obi Toppin, F, Dayton

Obi Toppin was college basketball's best player in 2019-20, and he's a good bet to go somewhere in the Top 10 next week. Toppin's real strength over other prospects at the top of the Draft is that you know what you're getting: elite athleticism, a diverse offensive game, and a solid defender. He doesn't have the highest ceiling in this cycle, but he has the highest floor. Cleveland desperately needs a for-sure thing after they took chances on both Collin Sexton and Darius Garland.

6. Atlanta Hawks

Deni Avdija, F, Israel

It would be fairly shocking if Deni Avdija was not the first International prospect off the board in this Draft, and the Hawks take a chance on him here at six. Avdija has the size and length to play multiple positions at the next level, and he has a smooth, well-rounded offensive game. Pairing him with the current frontcourt of John Collins and Clint Capela could allow them more space, thanks to Avdija's floor-stretching potential.

7. Detroit Pistons

Patrick Williams, F, Florida State

Florida State's Patrick Williams is one of those late risers that happens every Draft, and a Top 10 selection for him seems like a real possibility. NBA scouts are intrigued by his mix of size, defensive ability and offensive upside. Although his numbers don't jump off the page at you from his time with the Seminoles, his impact often goes beyond the stat sheet. Detroit could use another piece in this frontcourt, particularly with Blake Griffin's injury history.

8. New York Knicks

Killian Hayes, PG, France

The Knicks are clearly in the market for a point guard this off-season and while they have interest in dealing for a veteran, they also need some youth at the position. Killian Hayes has the potential to sneak into the Top 5, but later in the lottery is much more likely. The French guard is a well-built, tough guard that can create for others, but his shot needs refinement. If New York is able to be patient with him, they get a likely gem at pick eight.

9. Washington Wizards

Isaac Okoro, G/F, Auburn

The Washington Wizards were dead last in the NBA in defensive rating for the 2019-2020 campaign, and they have no hopes of competing for a postseason berth unless that changes. Perhaps having John Wall will help, but the bigger addition would be Isaac Okoro. Okoro can guard nearly every position on the court, and his perimeter defense is lockdown. He's still a little raw on offense, but his energy still allows him to impact games.

10. Phoenix Suns

Tyrese Haliburton, G, Iowa State

Phoenix has a nice core in place with Devin Booker and DeAndre Ayton, but they could still use another playmaker or two in the backcourt. Enter Haliburton, who was putting together a tremendous year in Ames before a broken wrist ended things prematurely. The former Cyclone has elite size, and he can get to the rim and finish as well as anybody in this Class.

11. San Antonio Spurs

Devin Vassell, G/F, Florida State

Another Florida State product, Devin Vassell might not have the upside of a Patrick Williams, but he's still worthy of a late lottery pick. Vassell checks nearly every box; he plays both ends, he's an elite athlete, and he shot the three-ball over 40 percent in college. He just seems like a Spurs-type prospect, and San Antonio lucks out here.

12. Sacramento Kings

Aaron Nesmith, G/F, Vanderbilt

Now that we've hit the late lottery, we start seeing prospects that might not have superstar potential but can still fill specific roles. For Vanderbilt's Aaron Nesmith, three-point shooting is his primary benefit to NBA teams, and the Kings desperately need another shooter. Nesmith's numbers are inflated because he missed time with injury, but he shot 52% from three in 14 games this past season.

13. New Orleans Pelicans

Kira Lewis, PG, Alabama

With Jrue Holiday likely on the move, New Orleans gets a potential long-term replacement in the form of Kira Lewis. Lewis is an explosive offensive weapon that can score in a lot of ways, and his shooting really took off down the stretch for Alabama. Defensively, he's more of a project, but his offensive game actually pairs well with likely backcourt mate Lonzo Ball.

14. Boston Celtics

Cole Anthony, G, UNC

Danny Ainge and the Celtics have no obvious glaring needs with the last pick in the lottery, so it's best player available here. Cole Anthony's 2019-20 was cut short due to injury, but he still flashed serious playmaking potential. He'll need to work on his shot selection and decision-making, but who better to learn from than Kemba Walker?

15. Orlando Magic

Tyrell Terry, G, Stanford

The Magic have a really interesting backcourt situation heading into the 2020-21 campaign. Markelle Fultz has flashed the potential to be a real impact player, but neither D.J. Augustin nor Michael Carter-Williams are likely to be back. Tyrell Terry is more of a combo guard than a pure point guard, but his scoring spark is worthy of a mid-first round selection.

16. Portland Trail Blazers

Saddiq Bey, F, Villanova

Injuries crippled Portland's chances at another Western Conference Finals run last season, and made it clear they need to work on their depth up front. Bring on Saddiq Bey, who had a breakout season for the Villanova Wildcats. He was always a great athlete and energy guy, but Bey displayed a better shooting touch than most expected. Bey could see heavy minutes right away, especially if Carmelo Anthony doesn't return.

17. Minnesota Timberwolves

Precious Achiuwa, F, Memphis

Rumor is that Minnesota is trying to move into the back-end of the lottery with this selection, but as I don't do trades in my mocks, they stick firm at 17. They'll want some frontcourt help to pair with Karl Anthony-Towns and Precious Achiuwa seems to make the most sense. While KAT is a strong offensive player, Achiuwa will help more on the defensive side and on the glass.

18. Dallas Mavericks

Josh Green, G/F, Arizona

Dallas is in the market for a secondary playmaking option alongside Luke Doncic, such as Zach LaVine or Victor Oladipo. Whether or not they're successful in that quest, a "3 and D" option at 18 makes the most sense given their roster composition. Josh Green is still slightly limited, but he has a smooth stroke and is a skilled perimeter defender.

19. Brooklyn Nets

R.J. Hampton, G, New Zealand

R.J. Hampton is a really fascinating prospect, likely to fall anywhere from late lottery to the second round. He was a consensus five-star recruit but opted for the overseas route, playing one year for the New Zealand Breakers. Hampton was okay, but nothing really jumps out at you from his game tape. Even so, he does offer significant potential at this spot, especially for a Nets team looking to make a jump next year.

20. Miami Heat

Jalen Smith, F/C, Maryland

Bam Adebayo is fresh off a breakout, All-Star performance in '19-'20, but Miami could still use some help with him up front. Jalen Smith is the type of prospect that should be a nice fit, assuming his outside shooting this past season at Maryland wasn't a facade. Smith can also really run the floor well for his size, which is always a major plus in the modern NBA.

21. Philadelphia 76ers

Theo Maledon, G, France

Another French point guard, Theo Maledon may not have the upside of Killian Hayes but he's still a likely first-rounder. Maledon is a skilled ball-handler, adept passer, and a better athlete than most give him credit for. The Sixers could certainly use backcourt depth, and there's no downside to taking a chance on Maledon here.

22. Denver Nuggets

Jaden McDaniels, F, Washington

Denver doesn't have any glaring needs on this roster, outside of a possible replacement in the long-term for Paul Millsap. Jaden McDaniels isn't going to fill that role any time soon, but he's the type of high-risk, high-reward prospect Denver hasn't hesitated taking a chance on. His athleticism and physique are off the charts, but his erratic play with Washington this past season makes him a late first-rounder at best.

23. Utah Jazz

Nico Mannion, PG, Arizona

Although his outside shot needs serious work, Nico Mannion is one of the elite playmakers in this Draft, and should be a nice fit inside nearly any NBA offense. I like the idea of Utah taking a chance on him here and allowing him to be an understudy for Mike Conley over the next couple seasons.

24. Milwaukee Bucks

Desmond Bane, G, TCU

Three-point shooting is always at a premium in the NBA, but especially so for a Bucks team that needs to open up lanes for Giannis Antetokounmpo. The good news is that Desmond Bane is a nice pickup at this point in the Draft, even if he doesn't provide the upside of others. Outside of his freshman year, Bane had three straight seasons of shooting over 40 percent from three, and he's also an underrated defender.

25. Oklahoma City Thunder

Tyrese Maxey, G/F, Kentucky

Oklahoma City could be in play for a point guard here with Chris Paul and Dennis Schroder both likely on the move, but wing play may end up being their biggest need. Tyrese Maxey is a name you'll see hover around the late lottery, but his shot really disappeared down the stretch this year at Kentucky. He still offers some scoring punch, but will need plenty of work to be a regular contributor.

26. Boston Celtics

Alexsej Pokusevski, F/C, Serbia

Per usual, Boston is loaded with draft picks but still a legitimate contender out East. They may draft a specialist here, but the more likely scenario is a "stash" guy that can continue to develop overseas and come over later. Look no further than Alexsej Pokusevski, an interesting talent but one that will need time. He's a good shooter for his position, but he needs to bulk up to survive playing serious NBA minutes.

27. New York Knicks

Zeke Nnaji, F/C, Arizona

There's an abundance of talented but unproven bigs clogged together in the late first round. My guess is New York chooses to go after one of them, and Zeke Nnaji is probably the best available. He's an absolute monster on the boards, but the rest of his offensive game still needs to take shape. He's probably not a stretch four or five, but his solid free throw shooting is a plus.

28. Los Angeles Lakers

Malachi Flynn, PG, San Diego State

This selection is unlikely to be a game-changing pick for the Lakers, but it is an opportunity to add a piece that can help keep them atop the NBA. Malachi Flynn offers shooting, ball-handling and proven leadership, leading a San Diego State squad that was undefeated deep into the season. He's another guy that might not have the highest ceiling, but won't bust either.

29. Toronto Raptors

Daniel Oturu, F/C, Minnesota

Toronto's roster right now is still built for contention in the East but they're hitting an important free agency with Fred Van Vleet, Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka all hitting the open market. Even if they choose to bring back Gasol and Ibaka, both are probably past their primes at this point. Toronto could instead go younger and add Daniel Oturu, who made major strides from his freshman to sophomore seasons with the Gophers. He didn't get much attention playing at Minnesota, but he was probably the second best big man in the Big Ten.

30. Boston Celtics

Vernon Carey Jr., C, Duke

It's unclear what Vernon Carey's NBA future is heading into this Draft. He's not super mobile for his position or a good shooter, which probably restricts his upside. With that being said, he was highly productive at Duke, and he still projects favorably as a rim protector. Boston has a track record of taking chances on bigs late in the first and they do it again here.

Tuesday, November 10, 2020

Who Replaces 2020 College Football Hot Seat Head Coaches?

Jim Harbaugh, Michigan


Even in an unprecedented year, the reality of being a head coach in college football is that your job is never completely secure. Athletic departments, administrators, boosters and fans can all turn on you in an instant, ensuring that the coaching carousel never stops spinning. While the 2020 coaching carousel may be slightly less active considering that so many athletic departments are strapped for cash, there's also several big-name programs looking to make moves.


Illinois Fighting Illini

Illinois AD Josh Whitman made quite the splashy hire back in March of 2016, landing former Chicago Bears HC Lovie Smith. Lovie was well-liked by former coaches and players alike, and he injected an energy into the Illinois program that had been missing. Unfortunately, that energy just hasn't translated to wins on the field, as the Illini are 15-37 under his leadership. While Illinois made a bowl last season, the early returns in 2020 aren't very reassuring. They are 0-3, with a pair of embarrassing defeats to Wisconsin and Minnesota. Another last place finish in the West is likely, making it clear a change is needed.

The Pick: Sean Lewis (Kent State HC)

Sean Lewis doesn't have a large body of work as head coach to go off of, entering his third season with Kent State in 2020. With that being said, he's quickly made in impact in recruiting and on-field performance for the Golden Flashes, taking them from 2-10 to 7-6 in 2019, capped off by a bowl win. The return of the MAC this past week gave Lewis an opportunity to show what he can do, as Kent State won over Eastern Michigan. If he continues on his current trajectory, a step up from the MAC seems extremely likely. There could be some turned off by his youth, as he is just 34, meaning he would immediately become the youngest in the Big Ten. But, at a place like Illinois they should be willing to take a chance on a youngster and see if it works out.

Others to Watch: Chris Creighton (Eastern Michigan HC), Matt Entz (North Dakota State HC), Marcus Freeman (Cincinnati DC)

Michigan Wolverines

Since a season-opening domination of Minnesota, things have gone downhill quick in Ann Arbor. The Wolverines lost to rival Michigan State (who promptly went on to lose this weekend by 42 to winless Iowa) then to Indiana, a team who hasn't beat UM since the late 1980s. Jim Harbaugh has long been on somewhat of a hot seat with the Wolverines, but these last two weeks have really felt like his tenure is coming to a close. He has done a great job restoring Michigan into a respectable program, but they're stuck in a tough spot, and it doesn't get any easier watching Ohio State continue to run the league. The Wolverines know they can attract big names to this job, so holding on to Harbaugh just feels unnecessary.

The Pick: Matt Campbell (Iowa State HC)

Matt Campbell continues to be one of the hottest names on the coaching market, turning Iowa State from a Big 12 bottom-feeder into a legit conference title contender. It only seems natural that Campbell is going to make the jump at some point, but to where? Campbell played at both Pittsburgh and Mount Union, and ISU is his first coaching gig outside the state of Ohio. Michigan is certainly a jump up, considering the history and potential of the program, even in the brutal Big Ten East. And, Campbell would check off every box for the Wolverines; he's young, energetic, and should be able to recruit.

Others to Watch: Luke Fickell (Cincinnati HC), Marcus Freeman (Cincinnati DC), Sean Lewis (Kent State HC), Bob Stoops (former Oklahoma HC)

South Carolina Gamecocks

Will Muschamp was never a popular hire when South Carolina brought him on to replace the departed Steve Spurrier. To be fair, Muschamp has had some success with the Gamecocks, leading them to a 9-4 mark in 2017, but since that point he has gone a total of 13-18. That includes a 2-4 start to the 2020 campaign, topped off by a 41-point loss to Texas A&M this past Saturday. South Carolina's seen the potential of the program when they have a top-tier coach, and there's a lot of young talent on this roster that could be very exciting. It just doesn't seem like Muschamp is going to be the guy to unleash it.

The Pick: Hugh Freeze (Liberty HC)

Hugh Freeze's coaching career arc has been a fascinating one, and he's only been coaching in college football since 2006. That 2006 gig was as TE coach at Ole Miss, the school where he would return less than a decade later as the head man, following pit stops at Arkansas State and Lambuth (Tennessee). Its hard to argue with the results during his head coaching stint in Oxford, as Freeze went 35-29 in a tough place to win. In addition to the wins, Freeze also led the Rebels to a Peach and Sugar Bowl, and the team finished ranked twice. After recruiting violations surfaced in Ole Miss, along with various other unsavory details, he was fired. His return to college football has been at Liberty, a school that made the transition to FBS back in 2019. In a year and a half with the Flames he is 15-5, and just got the school's biggest victory in its history, taking down the state's best program, Virginia Tech. It just seems inevitable another school will take a chance on Freeze, even with the off-the-field questions. Winning cures every illness, and Freeze has done just that in his career.

Others to Watch: Jamey Chadwell (Coastal Carolina HC), Mike Bobo (South Carolina OC), Billy Napier (Louisiana-Lafayette HC), Willie Fritz (Tulane HC)

Syracuse Orange

Syracuse's decision to hire Dino Babers wasn't a shocking one considering his success in previous head coaching stops. Babers had already established himself as one of the premier offensive minds in college football before taking over at Eastern Illinois and then Bowling Green. In a total of four seasons with those programs, he had won 37 games and three conference titles. After two 4-8 campaigns to begin his run with the Orange, Babers looked like he had his breakthrough in 2018. Syracuse went 10-3, nearly upset Clemson, and finished ranked 15th overall. 2019 looked like it could be a chance for Babers and the program itself to continue the momentum, but they slipped back to 5-7. That has given way to a 1-7 start in 2020, with 'Cuse looking like they'll finish last in the 15-team ACC. Recruiting and winning in upstate New York may be tough, but a 24-33 mark doesn't really cut it.

The Pick: Doug Marrone (Jacksonville Jaguars HC)

Re-hiring former coaches has become a little bit of a trend in college football as of late, with names like Mack Brown and Greg Schiano having early success in their second runs at UNC and Rutgers. Syracuse could follow along the trend by bringing in one of their former head coaches, Jacksonville's Doug Marrone. Marrone led the Orange from 2009-2012 before making the jump to the NFL, where he has coached the Buffalo Bills and Jaguars. Marrone's numbers at Syracuse weren't jaw-dropping, but he went 25-25 and won two bowls in four seasons. I think 'Cuse would be just fine with seven-eight win seasons, particularly one that is well-liked by alumni. There's a good chance Marrone gets fired from Jacksonville after 2020, setting this hire up perfectly.

Others to Watch: Lane Leipold (Buffalo HC), Sean Gleeson (Rutgers OC), Joe Harasymiak (former Maine HC, Minnesota co-DC), Greg Gattuso (Albany HC)

UCLA Bruins

It seems like ages ago Florida & UCLA were battling for the services of Chip Kelly, who had recently been fired by the San Francisco 49ers. UCLA ended up winning the bid for Kelly, and it looked like it had the potential to be a great hire. Two and a half years later, it seems like it's time to move on in Westwood, as the Bruins are now 7-18 under his leadership. It's hard to know whether Kelly simply has lost his touch, or the rest of college football has caught up with him, but the innovative offenses he once ran at Oregon are long gone. Instead, Kelly UCLA teams have been lackluster offensively, and he's struggled to develop the quarterback position. A season-opening loss to Colorado, a team breaking in former UCLA head man Karl Dorrell, felt like the beginning of the end for Chip's run here.

The Pick: Bryan Harsin (Boise State HC)

There isn't really an obvious name in the works for this job if Kelly does indeed get fired, but I've long thought Bryan Harsin would be a good fit. Harsin had big shoes to fill when he took over at Boise following Chris Petersen, and he's delivered. Since taking over prior to the 2014 campaign, Harsin has amassed a 66-18 overall record, plus a 42-8 mark in the Mountain West. His Broncos have won three conference titles in that span, and have played in the MWC Championship Game a total of five times. Harsin has done all this playing with relatively subpar talent, at least compared to what he should be able to recruit at a place like UCLA. Of course, the primary reason Harsin might not want to leave Boise is the fact he is a BSU alum, and getting his first real opportunity in coaching as a grad assistant with the Broncos. But, a place with the resources like UCLA may just be able to reel him away, especially if the money follows.

Others to Watch: Andy Avalos (Oregon DC), Graham Harrell (USC OC), Brent Brennan (San Jose State HC), Jay Hill (Weber State HC), Troy Calhoun (Air Force HC)

Vanderbilt Commodores

Vanderbilt has a number of disadvantages built into its football program that make things difficult for any head coach that sets up in Nashville, and it becomes even more difficult when the coach you're following is James Franklin. Even so, Derek Mason simply has not gotten it done with Vandy, going 27-52 over his time there. There has been small steps towards progress, such as two bowl appearances but Mason has now lost 14 of his last 17 games. It simply is time for the Commodores to move on and while Vanderbilt is a difficult job, there are still coaches that would be thrilled to make the jump to the SEC.

The Pick: Clark Lea (Notre Dame DC)

Clark Lea may not be a household name even amongst college football fans, but the work he has done with the Notre Dame defense has been phenomenal. Not only are its numbers terrific, but the Irish keep sending defenders to the NFL, especially in the front seven. It only seems natural Lea could be in line for a promotion, and Vanderbilt is a great fit. Lea began his playing career at Belmont before transferring to Vanderbilt, where he was a three-year contributor at fullback. Since his playing career he's risen steadily up the coaching ranks, with stops at South Dakota State, UCLA, Bowling Green, Syracuse, Wake Forest, and of course Notre Dame. It only makes sense for him to return home (he's originally from Nashville) and take a stab at this opportunity.

Others to Watch: Barry Odom (Arkansas DC), Jeff Fisher (former Tennessee Titans HC), Will Healy (Charlotte HC), Rhett Lashlee (Miami OC)


Others Job To Watch

USC: Clay Helton

Texas: Tom Herman

Virginia Tech: Justin Fuente

Texas Tech: Matt Wells

Arizona: Kevin Sumlin

Iowa: Kirk Ferentz

Tennessee: Jeremy Pruitt


Other Coaches In Line For Promotion (not previously mentioned above)

Brent Venables, Clemson DC

Jim Leonhard, Wisconsin DC

Sonny Dykes, SMU HC

Alex Grinch, Oklahoma DC

Kalani Sitake, BYU HC

Steve Sarkisian, Alabama OC

Kevin Steele, Auburn DC

Bill Clark, UAB HC

Dan Lanning, Georgia DC

Bobby Hauck, Montana HC



Friday, November 6, 2020

2020 College Football Picks: Week Ten

 

D.J. Uiagalelei, Clemson

Current Picks Record: 25-7 (3-2 Upset)


(#1) Clemson Tigers @ (#4) Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Line: Clemson -5.5

Over/Under: 50.5

Clemson and Notre Dame have played each other a total of four teams in their history, but this is their first ever meeting as ACC foes. Both teams head into this weekend flawless, although they've both had their scares. Clemson got all they could handle last week from Boston College and while they survived, they will have to go another week without Trevor Lawrence at quarterback. On the Notre Dame side, they had relatively tight wins over Louisville and Duke but remain 6-0.

Sure Clemson will be without Lawrence, but true freshman D.J. Uiagalelei looked awfully comfortable in his first career start last Saturday. He tallied over 350 yards of total offense and three scores, while also showing poise and crisp decision-making. He adds a different element to this Clemson offense because of his speed, as he has a little bit more natural mobility than Lawrence. Granted, this matchup against the Irish will be just a bit tougher than the Eagles. He'll face a solid secondary, but the bigger concern will be an ND pass rush that can be very fierce. Whether he's able to keep his cool over the course of four quarters may end up deciding whether the Tigers stay atop the ACC. The good news is that Uiagalelei has ample help, notably Travis Etienne at running back and Amari Rodgers outside. Etienne become the league's all-time leading rusher last week and he'll remain a vital part of this offense going forward. You would like to see somebody else emerge consistently behind Rodgers at receiver. Cornell Powell stepped up this past week and tight end Braden Galloway is a weapon, but Clemson could use all the offensive punch they can get against this Irish defense.

The big questions for Notre Dame are primarily on offense. Their numbers across the board are pretty good, but the offense has been extremely streaky in 2020 and the passing game has been fairly underwhelming. Veteran QB Ian Book is in his third full season as starter and yet the downfield passing attack has been nearly non-existent. That isn't all on Book, as he needs more help from the receivers on this roster, but is there any chance ND wins this game without getting the ball down the field? The Irish aren't naturally a super aggressive offense, but they need to be to come out victorious. Clemson is just too good and the offense will be tough to keep up with, even with Uiagalelei starting. It's fair to question who will be able to step up at wide out against a Clemson secondary that is good, but got exposed last week. Javon McKinley is technically the leading receiver, but keep an eye on former Northwestern transfer Ben Skowronek, who eclipsed 100 yards last week. The Irish ground game should still be able to move the ball, but the offensive line is in line for a major test with this Tiger front. There are future NFL guys on both sides, and the battle in the trenches should be a fun watch.

Brian Kelly has consistently said that Notre Dame is just a step or two away from being a true National Title contender. It's not a crazy argument when you consider their success over the last three seasons and how many players they've sent to the NFL. But, if the Irish really are ready to take that next leap these are the games they shouldn't just compete in, but win. They have a real advantage of having Lawrence out, and ND actually does match up really well with the Tigers in some spots. However, I just think Clemson has too many athletes on both sides of the ball for the Irish to come out on top. Uiagalelei is definitely not your average freshman, and the rest of the offense weapons will be able to put up points. Unless Book has the game of his life, Clemson jumps to 8-0 on the year.

Clemson, 34 Notre Dame, 21


(#8) Georgia Bulldogs vs. (#5) Florida Gators (Jacksonville)

Line: Georgia -3

Over/Under: 52.5

The SEC East may well be decided this Saturday with Georgia and Florida's annual rivalry game. Florida recovered from a close loss to Texas A&M by rolling past Missouri on Halloween, improving their record to 3-1 on the year. In contrast to past Gator teams this past decade, this team is explosive on offense, but prone to the big-play defensively. On offense Kyle Trask has asserted himself as one of the best quarterbacks in the entire country, throwing for 18 touchdowns on the season. He has an abundance of weapons to work with on the perimeter, namely one of the nation's best tight ends Kyle Pitts and do-it-all Kadarius Toney. The Florida ground game has been significantly less potent, with Dameon Pierce's 169 yards leading the team. It will be interesting to see whether this offense looks at becoming more balanced against this Georgia defense, or sticks to the aerial attack. Georgia is particularly good against the run, but their pass defense could be susceptible, with one of their top cover guys Richard LeCounte likely out for this one. That puts more pressure on the UGA defensive front to create pressure, which they shouldn't have much trouble doing. While the Gator offensive line has been decent this year, the Bulldog pass rush is relentless.

In contrast to Florida, Georgia's offense has lacked much punch in 2020. They've still been able to move the ball effectively on the ground behind Zamir White and James Cook, but the quarterback position has been a major weakness. Former walk-on Stetson Bennett IV came in during the opener and has started every game since. While he has performed admirably given the circumstances, he has begun to struggle with turnovers and getting the ball down the field. Although the Bulldog offense has still been able to survive, you wonder how high their ceiling is with him under center. Even so, he'll once again lead the offense against a Gator defense that has really struggled. The Gators' primary concern at receiver should be Kearis Jackson, although UGA's true freshman Jermaine Burton has also been a revelation. The status for George Pickens is up in the air heading into the weekend, as he did not make the trip to Kentucky last Saturday. The big thing to watch in this battle is how both of these units perform on third down; in UF's loss to A&M they couldn't stop anyone on third down. If Georgia is able to make the plays when they count, they certainly are in a good spot.

Despite Georgia's continued offensive questions, they head to Jacksonville as a slight favorite. The Bulldogs should be able to put some points on the scoreboard, but they will need their defense to play very well to come out on top. That certainly is not impossible when we consider the talent this UGA defense possesses, but it becomes more difficult without LeCounte. The more likely scenario is that the Gators are just too much with their own offense, propelling them to their first win in the series since 2016.

Florida, 38 Georgia, 28


Arizona State Sun Devils @ (#20) USC Trojans

Line: USC -10.5

Over/Under: 59.5

The Pac-12 finally is back this weekend, and their slate of games gets going early on. In fact so early that this is a 9 A.M. kickoff locally! It's a game that may be overshadowed by some of the other headliners, but this battle between Arizona State and USC may decide the South Division. The Trojans and head coach Clay Helton have a ton of pressure on them heading into 2020, but the good news is that they are led by a Heisman-level QB under center and an elite group of receivers. That QB is none other than Kedon Slovis, who threw for 3,502 yards and 30 touchdowns in relief of the injured J.T. Daniels. Slovis is a natural fit in the Graham Harrell offense, and he has a proven trio to throw to in Amon-Ra St. Brown, Tyler Vaughns, and Drake London. This offense is going to be able to stretch the Arizona State defense vertically, but it also has to play smart. The Sun Devil defense has long been known as a group that knows how to create turnovers, and the reality of this heavy pass USC offense is that it's prone to turnovers. Slovis appeared to be a really good decision-maker in his action last fall but rust could be an issue.

The Arizona State offense is led by their own star quarterback, sophomore Jayden Daniels. Daniels really impressed me last year; not only did he put up terrific numbers, but he showed a maturity and clutch gene that you don't often see from true freshman. He has a real opportunity against a Trojan secondary that was far from great in 2019. There is also likely to be a lot of youth around Daniels on this Arizona State offense, with the main exception being senior Frank Darby at receiver. Expect youngsters like Johnny Wilson and Daniyel Ngata to be featured in this offense from the get-go, even if they may need some time to adjust to the speed of the collegiate level. Ngata in particular could be in store for a heavy dosage of snaps, as he was competing for first team snaps at tailback throughout much of fall camp. This offense squares up against an 'SC defense that has plenty of fresh faces, and that includes the coaching staff. Todd Orlando was long considered a rising defensive mind in the coaching ranks, but things went south at Texas. Taking over for Clancy Pendergast as defensive coordinator, he is looking to help a Trojan defense that lacked much fight towards the end of '19. Orlando loves to draw up exotic blitzes which should present an interesting challenge for Daniels.

Year-in, year-out it's become almost common place among a large segment of college football media to buy into the "USC is back" hype. This year is no different, as the return of Slovis and a new-look defense may just be the answer the program needed to get back on track. However, all this hype going USC's way leaves Arizona State underrated. The Sun Devils have legit NFL talent on both sides of the ball, and Daniels should be eager to prove that he's the best of the best in the Pac-12. I also trust the Arizona State defense slightly more and Herm Edwards has to have the advantage on the sideline. This feels to me like a Trojan letdown spot, especially in the Coliseum. 

Arizona State, 30 USC, 28


Other Picks

(#23) Michigan @ (#13) Indiana: Indiana, 24 Michigan, 21

West Virginia @ (#22) Texas: Texas, 37 West Virginia, 27

(#25) Liberty @ Virginia Tech: Virginia Tech, 42 Liberty, 28

(#14) Oklahoma State @ Kansas State: Oklahoma State, 38 Kansas State, 21

Upset: Temple, 34 SMU, 31