College Football Preview 2023: 11. Washington Huskies

Michael Penix, Washington

11. Washington Huskies

Fueled by one of the nation's top passing games, Washington could build on last year's 11 wins

2022 Review

Kalen DeBoer inherited a talent Washington roster coming into 2022, but one fresh off an absolutely disastrous campaign that led to the ousting of Jimmy Lake. DeBoer had all the ingredients in place for a turnaround, but I'm not sure even the most optimistic Husky fan expected last fall. Washington raced out to a 4-0 start, that included a victory over then-No. 11 Michigan State, before temporarily falling back to Earth with a pair of road losses. Instead, those two losses seemed to ignite a second wind in the sails of the Huskies, as they would win their final six games, which included road wins over Cal, Oregon, and Washington State in the Apple Cup. They entered the Alamo Bowl against Texas as slight underdogs, but ran past the Longhorns en route to a 27-20 victory. Those 11 wins were the most in Seattle since they made their lone CFB Playoff appearance in 2016, an unbelievable debut for DeBoer and the new staff. But for a program that has serious aspirations on the national scale, they're hoping it was merely the beginning. Even facing down a tough schedule, the Huskies have a Pac-12 Title and potential Playoff berth in their sights entering 2023.

2023 Outlook

Offense: Washington fans had to suffer through one of the most horrendous offenses in program history in 2021, as the Huskies scraped together just 21.5 PPG. The addition of DeBoer and staff was focused on reversing that miserable unit, and they did just that, averaging nearly 40 points and over 500 yards per contest.

One of the major reasons for the quick turnaround in 2022 was the play of quarterback Michael Penix, who traveled to the Pacific Northwest from Indiana. Penix has had a fascinating career; he suffered through injury-plagued 2018 and 2019 seasons before a huge 2020 under the tutelage of DeBoer, then Indiana's offensive coordinator. After a horrendous 2021 in which he finished with a 4-7 TD-INT ratio, Penix reacquainted with his old play-caller and proceeded to torch Pac-12 defenses to the tune of 4,641 yards and 31 touchdowns.

Penix has always had a huge arm, but DeBoer has been the coach most successful in catering to his strengths and allowing him to flourish. He still has to improve his decision-making and reel in the turnovers, but Penix has always been a gunslinger, willing to take shots down the field and live with the consequences. Injuries have also been a concern throughout his long-winded college career, but the return of veteran Dylan Morris as backup should be a huge relief for Huskies fans, providing a player who has started 15 games in his career.

Penix deserves all the credit in the world for his turnaround a season ago, but it also helped that he was gifted one of the best receiver corps in the country. This is a receiver room punctuated not only by two players who surpassed 1,000 yards in 2022, but impressive depth throughout.

Juniors Rome Odunze and Jalen McMillan were the ones who went over the 1,000-yard mark, and earning a long list of accolades in the process. Odunze is the headliner, a 6'3" specimen who earned All-American recognition last fall, while McMillan operates underneath more frequently and has proven to be incredibly reliable at moving the chains. Beyond those two, sophomore Ja'Lynn Polk notched 694 yards himself last fall and has proven he can take the top off of defenses, while former transfers Giles Jackson and Germie Bernard offer provide loads of potential. Bernard in particular is a player with an incredibly high ceiling who flashed during his lone season at Michigan State.

Along with those loaded receiver room, Washington can also hurt defenses with a pair of capable tight ends in Jack Westover and Devin Culp. Both are established veterans who should be able to take advantage of defenses focusing on all the weapons on the perimeter. 

With so much back, the aerial attack will once again rule the day in Seattle, but the ground game was an under-appreciated element of this team in 2022. Former Virginia transfer Wayne Taulapapa quietly ran for 887 yards and 11 touchdowns, but now departs, leaving the door open for junior Cameron Davis. Davis wasn't able to bust open big runs the way Taulapapa was last season, but he was a consistent short-yardage threat, with 13 touchdowns. He has more wiggle to him than people may realize, so I envision much more from the veteran in 2023. Add in transfers Daniyel Ngata (Arizona State) and Dillon Johnson (Mississippi State) don't discount this backfield this fall.

For all the ups-and-downs the Washington offenses has gone through the last several seasons, the offensive line has been a consistent backbone. However, this is a group that will be breaking in some fresh faces in 2023, as three starters depart.

Tackles Troy Fautanu and Roger Rosengarten will be the leaders of the O-Line this fall, particularly Fautanu, who can play multiple spots and earned All-Pac-12 recognition last year. The primary concerns are at both guard spots, as Jaxson Kirkland and Henry Bainivalu were proven, steady blockers who will be sorely missed. Fortunately, senior Matteo Mele looks ready to take over at center after seeing a healthy dose of game action in a reserve role the last few years.

If you're in the mood for points, Washington's offense is the fit for you. The Huskies are going to play at a relentless pace, but remain efficient and in control, leading to a highly productive and fun-to-watch group. Considering how quickly they gelled under DeBoer and staff last fall, I have a feeling the encore is going to be something special.

Defense: Washington has become an NFL factory on the defensive side of the ball, one of the best programs in the country at identifying and developed underrated talent coming out of high school. That has resulted in this defense being productive year-in, year-out, and the prognosis is encouraging for this fall again.

Up front, the Washington defensive line had a resurgent 2022 after several down seasons. They must replace departed end Jeremiah Martin, but this should remain a strength heading into the new season. Junior edge Bralen Trice broke out last fall and is one of the Pac-12's premier pass rushers, while veterans Faatui Tuitele and Tuli Letuligasenoa eat up rushing lanes on the interior. The wild card of the group is senior Zion Tupuola-Fetui, one of the Pac-12's best when healthy, but a player who has experienced unfortunate injury luck. He's an absolute nightmare for opposing blockers when 100 percent and paired with Trice, he has a chance to create absolute havoc this year.

Much like "ZTF", injuries have impacted the career of Edefuan Ulofoshio, who has missed a big chunk of the last two seasons. Ulofoshio is supposed to be full-go for 2023 and will lead a capable linebacker corps, which also includes juniors Alphonzo Tuputala and "Husky" Mishael Powell. Tuputala is a sure-tackler who will act as the quarterback of this defense, while Powell emerged last fall and offers excellent positional versatility. Add in USC transfer Ralen Goforth, who made 16 starts during his time at Southern Cal, the entire front seven is deep and experienced.

Defensive backs were Jimmy Lake's specialty, but the secondary has slipped as of late. Last season in particular was a struggle, as the Huskies finished 100th in the FBS in total pass defense. Although, that was to be expected considering the rash of injuries they dealt with, forcing younger pieces to step into larger roles than initially planned. 

Senior safeties Asa Turner and Dominique Hampton will be the unquestioned leaders of the defensive backfield this fall. Both are big, disruptive defenders who love to come down and make plays in rush defense. I'm particularly high on Turner, a player with the build to play all over the field and make a major impact. 

While Turner and Hampton are a great starting point, it's fair to have some concerns about this cornerback situation. Sophomore Elijah Jackson got some starts last fall and could lock down a starting role, while as did Jaivion Banks. However, it may end up being a transfer that ends up being the best corner on the team, as Oklahoma State transfer Jabar Muhammed is their most proven commodity at the position. Muhammed made 13 starts over three seasons in Stillwater, but it will be interesting to see if there's another level he can reach with the Huskies.

Washington put up solid defensive numbers across the board last season, even with a leaky pass defense. Assuming the secondary can stay healthy this year, there's a fair chance for improvement and for this unit to be among the better groups in the Pac-12. That's no easy feat, considering how much time this unit will spend on the field, with the offense they have going the other way.

Special Teams: Longtime kicker Peyton Henry moves on after an amazingly consistent career in Washington, leaving the Huskies scrambling for a new placekicker. Those duties are likely to fall to sophomore Grady Gross, who primarily worked kickoffs last fall, although fellow sophomore Addison Shrock remains on the roster. At punter, Jack McCallister has proven to be capable, but will hope for even more after decent numbers throughout the 2022 campaign. The return game is in a good spot, as Jalen McMillan is likely to handle punts once more, with Giles Jackson on kickoffs.

Bottom Line

Kalen DeBoer had arguably the most impressive debut campaign of any FBS head coach a season ago, but it still feels like Washington is being a bit overlooked nationally entering 2023. There's little reason to assume a drop-off is in store; Penix may be inconsistent but he's comfortable in this system and has a star-studded receiver corps to work with. And on defense, although corner is a slight concern, there's a chance the unit could actually be improved, with a healthier lineup and more depth throughout. The schedule is tricky, with two tough non-conference games to go along with grueling Pac-12 play, so matching last season's 11 victories won't be easy. But, this team has all the makings of a legitimate College Football Playoff contender and overall, the programs feels like it could be ready for something special under DeBoer, even with the Pac-12's uncertain future.

Program Profile

Coaching Staff

He's still not quite a national name just yet, but all Kalen DeBoer does is win. He went 67-3 at Sioux Falls of the NAIA before successful stints as OC at Southern Illinois, Eastern Michigan, Fresno State and Indiana. DeBoer returned to Fresno in 2020 and after a down COVID year, went 9-3 in 2021. Bringing a proven offensive mind like him to Washington seemed like the right move after the disastrous Jimmy Lake era, and his 11-2 debut showed that he was ready for the Power Five ranks. His offensive coordinator is Ryan Grubb, a longtime DeBoer assistant who is a rising name in collegiate coaching circles. Grubb interviewed for the Alabama OC job over the offseason and will be a name to watch moving forward. Defensively, the Huskies run a co-DC scheme with Chuck Morrell and William Inge. Inge coached with DeBoer at Indiana and followed him to Fresno, while Morrell has had a longtime relationship with him. Morrell served as head coach at NAIA Montana Tech and was successful, with three Frontier Coach of the Year Awards, before joining back up with DeBoer.

Recruiting Breakdown

DeBoer and staff's first full recruiting class was a solid one, landing 26th nationally. Eight four-star prospects dot the group, made up mostly of kids from Washington and California. Cornerbacks Curley Reed and Caleb Presley are two in particular that could have an early impact, as both come in at need positions. Reed, who is from Louisiana, had SEC interest but instead decided to head for the Pacific Northwest, indicating that Washington does have a national brand to pull from. Wide out Taeshaun Lyons is another talented young prospect who has a bright future in this offense, although 2023 could be a redshirt year for him. At 6'3", 165 pounds, he'll need to bulk up, but has the type of physique to be a long-term problem for Husky opponents. Fellow four-star wide out Rashid Williams is also worth keeping an eye on, as the ultra-athletic California product is versatile to help out in a multitude of ways.

2023 Schedule Analysis

Washington has a sneaky tough non-conference slate, which begins when they welcome Boise State to Husky Stadium on September 2nd. The Broncos not only remain as one of the Group of Five's premier programs, with the way they ended last fall, it's a worthy test for an opener. Tulsa should be an easy win for Washington, as the Golden Hurricane break in a new coaching staff, before the Huskies travel all the way to Michigan to battle Michigan State. Washington rolled in this home-and-home last fall, but going all the way to East Lansing is no easy trek and the Spartans could be improved this fall. Pac-12 play opens a week later at home at California, and there's a road matchup with Arizona before the bye. The bye does come at a nice time, right before the annual rivalry game with Oregon, but you almost wish it would have been later on, as their final seven are difficult. Along with Oregon, Washington also gets Utah and Washington State at home, as well as road trips to USC and Oregon State. That's a tough stretch with no breaks, and even the "easy" games during that run have reasons to be concerned. The Stanford game is on the road and Arizona State, who is a complete wild card as we stand today, is coming off a bye ahead of their October 21st date.

2023 X-Factor: Jabbar Muhammed, CB

It's not getting enough national attention as it deserves, but the Pac-12 has the best collection of quarterbacks in America. In addition to the reigning Heisman winner, there's Michael Penix, Bo Nix, Cam Rising, Cam Ward, and a pair of intriguing newcomers in D.J. Uiagalelei and Dante Moore. Simply put, pass defense is going to be at a premium this year on the West Coast. Unfortunately, that was a notable weak spot for the Huskies a season ago and the cornerback room entering 2023 leaves something to be desired. There's some talented youngsters and a few freshmen that could make an immediate impact, but the position group is short on proven experience. That's where Jabbar Muhammed will come in, a transfer from Oklahoma State who started 13 games total for the Cowboys. Muhammed wasn't a star in Stillwater, but he's at least proven he can be a capable defender at the Power Five level, something not much at this position can say. Now, Muhammed will be tasked with not only bringing leadership, but stepping up and defending opponent's best receiver each and every night. It's quite a lot to ask for a newcomer, and how he's able to handle it will be a major factor in just how successful this defense is in 2023.

Team Projections

Projected Record: 9-3 (6-3 Pac-12)

Offensive MVP: QB Michael Penix

Defensive MVP: LB Alphonzo Tuputala

Impact Freshman: CB Caleb Presley

Impact Transfer: CB Jabbar Muhammed

Breakout Player of the Year: RB Cameron Davis

Five-Year Trend

College Football Preview 2023: 12. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Chris Tyree, Notre Dame 

12. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

A "down" 2022 just shows how the floor has risen in South Bend, and the Irish should be back with a vengeance

2022 Review

Two of the most storied programs in college football clashed in a 2022 opener, as Notre Dame traveled to Ohio State to begin their season. Although the Irish were able to keep C.J. Stroud and company mostly in check, their lack of offense resulted in a 21-10 defeat. Those offensive woes carried over a week later, as the Irish were shocked at home by Marshall, a game they were favored to win by three touchdowns. It wasn't the dream start that Marcus Freeman envisioned at Notre Dame, but the Irish won three straight to get back on track. An ugly home loss to Stanford sent them back into the "L" column, but they seemed to find their stride in the following weeks. After pounding UNLV, they won back-to-back games over ranked foes, including a splattering of Clemson in front of the home crowd. The Irish would go on to beat Navy and Boston College, but the win streak had to end at some point, as they would lose the regular season finale to USC. Notre Dame would conclude their 2022 by winning a thriller over South Carolina in the Gator Bowl, sending them into the offseason with a 9-4 record. Considering the start, and the fact starting QB Tyler Buchner was lost after just two games, it was quite the recovery from Freeman and the entire roster. But amazingly, it was their most defeats in a single-season since 2016, which should leave the program thirsty to show what they can do this fall.

2023 Outlook

Offense: Notre Dame seemed to find their rhythm offensively down the stretch behind a power-rushing attack, but the numbers throughout 2022 weren't super inspiring. Even so, it must have caught the attention of Nick Saban, who coached coordinator Tommy Rees as his next OC. In response, Marcus Freeman elevated tight end coach Gerad Parker to the coordinator position and will let him run the show this fall.

Parker will have a new quarterback under center to work with, as both Tyler Buchner and Drew Pyne transferred over the offseason. The Irish feel they have upgraded by landing Wake Forest transfer Sam Hartman, who left Winston-Salem as the program's all-time leading passer. It will be an adjustment for Hartman as he moves on from a unique Wake Forest system, but Parker is going to mold the entire offense around him. Hartman has a reputation for being incredibly consistent, providing stability to a position that was anything but last season.

I am a bit concerned about the lack of depth behind Hartman, especially with Buchner being a late entrant to the portal in the spring. There is not a single player on this roster that has thrown a collegiate pass, although redshirt freshman Steve Angeli has at least seen some game action. It's certainly something to be wary of, even if Hartman has displayed consistent durability throughout his collegiate career.

Having Hartman in town should alleviate some of the burden on this ground game, which was the heart-and-soul of the Irish offense in 2022. Audric Estime and Logan Diggs provided an overpowering 1-2 punch that seemed to only get stronger as the season wore on, as both finished with over 800 yards. Estime is back and should be the feature guy, while Diggs transferred to LSU and will team back up with Brian Kelly.

Losing Diggs may sting a bit, but it opens up opportunities for rising redshirt freshman Jadarian Price, who looked on his way to a big 2022 before a season-ending injury in fall camp. Keep your eye on Price as a breakout candidate, while Penn State transfer Devyn Ford should also provide an infusion of playmaking ability. 

There is significant pressure on this receiver corps, which has been the Achilles Heel of the Irish for several years now. Since Chase Claypool departed, Notre Dame has lacked any consistent weapon on the perimeter, which has shown itself to be a major problem in their biggest games. It was particularly notable last fall, although youngster Jayden Thomas flashed enough to be a reason for excitement. He is their top returning receiver and has superstar potential, but the rest of the room is thin. Junior Deion Colzie hasn't put it together yet, sophomore Tobias Merriweather is awfully raw, while one of the stars of the spring, Jaden Greathouse, will likely need time.

Among that receiver room now is Chris Tyree, who is making the transition from running back to slot receiver. I'm fascinated by this move; Tyree is a former high-profile recruit who just hasn't been able to find consistent footing in South Bend. It's been surprising to me that ND hasn't found a way to use his jaw-dropping speed in a more effective way, but maybe this move will bring something out of the junior.

Notre Dame has earned a reputation as one of the best in FBS football at producing NFL-ready tight ends and they sent another one to the pros this offseason in Michael Mayer. Mayer was the engine of this offense often throughout his time here and replacing him will be an arduous task. Junior Mitchell Evans has some experience but isn't the pass-catcher that Mayer. That's why I'm watching Eli Raridon as a breakout candidate, a guy who I featured in my annual, "Ten Players Poised for the Sophomore Leap." 

There will be a new face leading the offensive line after the retirement of Harry Hiestand. Enter Joe Rudolph, the longtime Wisconsin OL coach who spent one season at Virginia Tech before making his return to the Midwest. Rudolph consistently oversaw some of the nation's best offensive lines while at Wisconsin and has plenty to work with at Notre Dame. 

Junior left tackle Joe Alt is the headliner of the offensive line, a 2022 All-American who is almost sure to be the next Irish linemen to be drafted in the first round of the NFL Draft. Blake Fisher handles the right tackle spot opposite of Alt and junior Zeke Correll should man the middle at center. The guard spots are somewhat question marks right now, although I'm keeping an eye on redshirt frosh Rocco Spindler as a name that could step into a starting role.

Despite the turnover on the coaching staff and in the quarterback room, you could argue Notre Dame upgraded at both spots this offseason. There will still be an adjustment process as everyone gets settled and losing a steady hand like Mayer doesn't help, but I suspect the Irish will be strong on this side of the ball and potentially improve on their 2022 numbers.

Defense: The Irish are going to remain a defense-first program under Freeman, whose work as coordinator in 2021 was strong enough to earn him the head coaching job. Freeman named former Miami head coach Al Golden the new coordinator and Golden responded with impressive numbers across the board during his debut campaign.

The key for Golden and this defense in 2023 will be finding a way to keep the pressure on opposing quarterbacks, despite the loss of their two best pass rushers, Isaiah Foskey and Jayson Ademilola. Foskey in particular was an absolute menace off the edge and gave this entire Irish defense a ferocious attitude to the way they played.

Notre Dame brought in Ohio State transfer Javontae Jean-Baptiste to help replace some of the production left by Foskey and Ademilola, but this is a downgrade. Jean-Baptise did see 46 games over his Ohio State career, but wasn't much more than a rotational piece. Perhaps a change of scenery and more opportunity could be the springboard to success he needs. The other end spot is likely to be manned by junior Jordan Botelho, who proved to be an effective rusher despite limited snaps in 2022.

The rush defense is bound to remain nasty, thanks to the return of Rylie Mills and Howard Cross on the interior D-Line, and just about every key linebacker. Mills and Cross are a tad undersized for their positions, but play much bigger and are relentless in the pursuit of the football. 

This isn't the most athletic linebacker trio we've seen at Notre Dame, but it's an extremely effective one. Middle linebacker J.D. Bertrand is the tone-setter, a disciplined defender always in the right spots. He led the team with 82 tackles last fall and proved to be a pest in opposing backfields, with 6.5 tackles for loss. Next to him are juniors Jack Kiser and Marist Liufau, who finished just behind Bertrand in tackles. Add in redshirt freshman Jaylen Sneed, a talented outside 'backer who has the talent to be a long-time difference-maker on this roster, it's hard not to feel good about this group entering 2023.

Even as TaRiq Bracy moves on, the Irish could boast one of the best cornerback rotations in the country. Benjamin Morrison was a revelation in 2022, coming out of nowhere to pick off six passes and finish the year as a Freshman All-American. Joining him is Cam Hart, a converted receiver with the size to constantly get in passing lanes, and Clarence Lewis, who has made 21 starts over his ND career. There's also newcomer Antonio Carter from Rhode Island, giving this room even more experience and proven defensive prowess. As long as this group doesn't get derailed by injuries, teams are going to have an incredibly difficult time passing on them throughout the entire fall.

It isn't quite as good of news at safety, where Houston Griffith and Brandon Joseph depart. Although neither are exactly impossible to replace; Griffith was a long-time contributor but not much more than serviceable, and Joseph was a bit of a disappointment since arriving at ND. The combination of D.J. Brown and Xavier Watts should be more than enough to keep the Irish in good position here, and Oklahoma State transfer Thomas Harper provides depth.

It doesn't feel like there's quite as much star power on this defense as in years past, with the notable exception being Morrison. But, there's ample experience, solid depth, and an overall good energy permeating throughout the unit. There's little doubt in my mind it will continue the proud Notre Dame tradition and be among the best in the nation.

Special Teams: Notre Dame's special teams entered 2022 all out of wack after ST coordinator Brian Polian followed Brian Kelly to LSU, but the unit performed admirably. Kicker Blake Grupe was rock-solid, hitting 14-19, but his departure opens the door for a new player to emerge. That's likely to be South Florida transfer Spencer Shrader, a player with a big leg but an inconsistent track record in college. Punter also looks like it fall to a newcomer, as Penn transfer Bryce McFerson looks to be on the inside track to start.

Bottom Line

Considering the circumstances, it shouldn't have been very surprising that Notre Dame took a slight step-back in Year One of the Freeman era. Brian Kelly set an incredibly high bar and the Irish offense had some notable problems that would have impacted any first year head coach. But, this will be a telling year to indicate whether Freeman, who has risen up incredibly fast through the coaching ranks, will be the guy to lead ND to a brighter future. He now has an elite quarterback under center, a capable supporting cast, and a strong defense. Plus, although the schedule is never easy at Notre Dame, getting two of their toughest foes, USC and Ohio State, at home should be considered a small victory. The Irish are good enough to hang around the College Football Playoff race this fall and perhaps even gain entry for the third time, but Freeman and the program have their eyes set on even loftier goals. They want to not just get there, but make the field and win, proving they belong in the same breath as the true national elites around the college football universe. 

Program Profile

Coaching Staff

Marcus Freeman enters his third year in South Bend and second as head coach. As recently as 2009, he was playing pro football before getting his start as a grad assistant with Ohio State. His success at Cincinnati under Luke Fickell is what eventually earned him the Notre Dame promotion. The new offensive coordinator is Gerad Parker, who spent 2022 as the team's TE coach. It will be the second offensive coordinator position for Parker, who was previously OC/WR coach at West Virginia from 2020-2021. On the other side of the ball, Al Golden enters his second year as coordinator after a long run in the NFL. He's most remembered for an underwhelming run as Miami head coach when he went 32-25 overall, but he was highly successful at Temple, at least compared to expectations. 

Recruiting Breakdown

Freeman's first full class at Notre Dame was a solid one, ranking 13th nationally. Unsurprisingly, the top ranked player in the group is an offensive linemen, tackle Charles Jaguash from Illinois. Jaguash will likely be buried on the depth chart for at least a year, but he already has the build of a college starter at 6'6", 310 pounds. There's plenty of other offensive talent dotting the class, including tailback Jeremiyah Love and wide out Braylon James. Love is an explosive playmaker who will give this team the type of open-field explosiveness that has been lacking in recent years, while James brings an infusion of size and physical tools to the receiver room. Another name to watch is tight end Cooper Flanagan, who has potential to be the latest in a long line of elite Irish tight ends. Flanagan is one of the best blockers you'll find at the position coming out of high school, but if he can round out his game, he could see snaps in short order.

2023 Schedule Analysis

Notre Dame will begin their 2023 in unfamiliar territory, as they travel all the way to Ireland to meet up with the Navy Midshipmen. While the game will put a strain on them due to the travel required, the fact it will take place on August 26 could be an advantage later on, giving them two bye weeks during the season's second half. The Irish return to the United States with Tennessee State, before going on the road to NC State. After a short reprieve against Central Michigan, Notre Dame enters their most important stretch of the season. They start with Ohio State, although they get the Buckeyes in South Bend this time, then go on the road against Duke and Louisville, before USC comes to town. Getting Ohio State and USC both at home is a win, but watch out for those Duke and Louisville games. Both are viable ACC foes and are perfectly sandwiched in between the two most important games of ND's season. Following a bye, ND gets Pittsburgh at home and Clemson on the road and after another late bye, Wake Forest and at Stanford. While the two byes in late October and mid-November is an advantage, the Irish would have likely preferred at least one earlier in the year. However, it should help them finish strong, particularly vital if they are in the CFB Playoff race.

2023 X-Factor: Jayden Thomas, WR

The lack of big-play threats on the perimeter has become a consistent theme for the Irish in recent years and an issue that has held the program back from reaching their true potential. They've had to make do with a strong running game and generally a capable supporting cast, along with a reliable tight end. If Marcus Freeman and this staff want to take the Irish to the next level, this is the position group that has to take a leap. However, the prognosis for 2023 isn't super encouraging, at least not right now, and there's no Michael Mayer to lean on. That puts an extra bit of pressure on sophomore Jayden Thomas, their top returning receiver who hopes to become the true alpha on the outside. Thomas is supremely talented, with a large frame and soft hands, but is he ready to become the offense's chief playmaker in the passing game? Having a proven quarterback getting him the ball in Sam Hartman helps tremendously, but the pressure is on for Thomas. If he's unable to become the true No. 1 option, it's hard to imagine this offense and in particular this passing game, taking much of a step forward.

Team Projections

Projected Record: 9-3

Offensive MVP: QB Sam Hartman

Defensive MVP: CB Benjamin Morrison

Impact Freshman: WR Braylon James

Impact Transfer: QB Sam Hartman

Breakout Player of the Year: TE Eli Raridon

Five-Year Trend

College Football Preview 2023: 13. Utah Utes

Cam Rising, Utah

13. Utah Utes

The ever-consistent Utes will be firmly in the mix for their third straight Pac-12 crown, even with the uncertainty around Cam Rising

2022 Review

Scheduling any SEC program to begin the season is a stiff challenge, but Utah going into Gainesville to wrestle with the Gators? Considering this is a program used to playing in cold weather at altitude, traveling to "The Swamp" in late August was as much of a battle against the elements as it was against Florida. Unsurprisingly, the Utes came up just short, 29-26, but quickly found their footing by winning five straight. Another road tilt was their undoing, this time against a scorching hot UCLA team, but per usual, Utah responded. They won four straight, including a thriller against USC in Salt Lake City, before heading to Eugene to face Oregon, a team they beat twice in 2021. Despite a hard-fought effort, three interceptions from quarterback Cam Rising would doom the Utes to their third loss of the year, 20-17. But, thanks to a win over Colorado a week later and Oregon's eventual loss to Oregon State, Utah still won found themselves in the Pac-12 Championship Game against old South Division rival USC. The physicality of the Utes, along with an injury to Caleb Williams, helped them roll past the Trojans and claim their second straight Pac-12 Title and in turn, their second straight Rose Bowl trip. The Rose Bowl trip went the same way as the first; a valiant effort from Utah, but a situation where they couldn't keep up with the opposing athletes for the entire sixty minutes. All in all, a 10-4 record and conference title is certainly a success and if not for a brutal road schedule, the Utes would have accomplished even more. That has been a regular theme in recent years for Utah, who amazingly hasn't lost a home game in a non-COVID season since early 2018.

2023 Outlook

Offense: Under coordinator Andy Ludwig, the Utah offense has evolved into one of the most consistent in the Pac-12. It's always an incredibly balanced group that takes care of the football, which happened to result in an average of 38.6 points per game in 2022.

Ludwig is back for Year Five of his second stint in Salt Lake City and will have a familiar name to toy with under center in Cam Rising, albeit with special circumstances. Rising is fresh off a stellar campaign in which he eclipsed 3,000 passing yards and 26 touchdowns, but it was his torn ACL in the Rose Bowl that effectively sunk Utah's chances of a New Year's victory. As of right now, Rising's status for 2023 is completely up in the air; we will definitely see him at some point, but it's anybody's guess when that exactly that will be.

Junior Bryson Barnes came on in relief of Rising in the Rose Bowl and in mop-up duty, going 37-57 for 430 yards. Certainly there's a drop-off between the two, but Barnes should be capable enough to keep the offense steady until Rising is cleared.

One of the coolest stories in the Pac-12 last fall was the emergence of Ja'Quinden Jackson, a converted quarterback from Texas who ran wild down the stretch for the Utes. Jackson had 117 against Colorado in the final week of the regular season and 105 against USC, finishing with 531 in total, with an average of nearly seven yards per. Granted, those weren't exactly the most dominant rush defenses in the country last fall, but Jackson's emergence are the types of stories that make college football so fun.

Now that Tavion Thomas has officially moved on, it looks like it's Jackson's time as feature back in this offense. However, he's far from the only Ute that will make an impact from one of the deepest running back rooms in the nation. Junior Micah Bernard has been an effective sidekick for Thomas the last two years and should hold on to a similar role in 2023, while Jaylon Glover ran for four scores in limited action. Even a guy buried on the depth chart like Chris Curry brings starting experience from his time at LSU, and Curry is healthy again after missing the majority of last season.

Utah's offense has always leaned heavily on their tight ends and that should be the case again, as they have one of the nation's top combos, even with Dalton Kincaid moving on. Brant Kuithe has had an illustrious career in Salt Lake City and should be fully recovered from a knee injury that cost him the final few months of 2022. Senior Thomas Yassmin stepped up following the injury to Kuithe and returns, giving the Utes a pair that should terrify opposing defenses.

The tight ends will again play an outsized role, although the receiver group looks like it will step up in a big way in 2023, with several proven commodities and an infusion of new blood. Junior Devaughn Vele and Money Parks combined for over 1,000 yards receiving a year ago and will give this offense a pair of dynamic threats on the perimeter. 

A trio of newcomers are worth a watch at receiver, as Mycah Pittman comes over from Florida State, Emery Simmons from Indiana, and Landen King from Auburn. Pittman in particular is the type of talent who Utah simply hasn't had at the position in recent years. He started his career at Oregon and after a quick pit stop in Tallahassee, is back in the Pac-12. The production just hasn't fully arrived, but Pittman is a talented pass-catcher who may just need a different fit to fulfill his potential.

There's more good news along the offensive line as three starters return, including two who earned All-Pac-12 recognition in 2022, guard Keaton Bills and tackle Sataoa Laumea. Even the spots where there aren't returning starters, such as left tackle, there are returning pieces who have seen a fair bit of game action in a reserve role.

Even among all the uncertainty surrounding Cam Rising, this has a chance to be one of the best Utah offenses ever under Kyle Whittingham. There's more star-power and playmaking than in the past, and the depth throughout the unit is staggering. Add in an offensive line to set the tone, I like the Utes to improve on last year's impressive offensive numbers.

Defense: Few programs in the country churn out elite defenses consistently quite like Utah, who remain the model for building a disciplined, relentless defensive unit. They were strong once more in 2022, even with an underwhelming pass defense, at least compared to their typical numbers.

It all begins up front, where the Utes have sent 18 defensive linemen to the NFL over the last three decades. Even as rock-solid defensive end Gabe Reid moves on, just about every key piece returns to the Ute D-Line, including superb juniors Van Fillinger and Junior Tafuna. Fillinger continues to develop off the edge, while Tafuna combines with rising sophomore Simote Pepa to form a gap-eating duo in the middle. 

2022 was the first year of life without linebacker Devin Lloyd, arguably one of the greatest players to ever put on the Utah colors. And yet, the linebacker corps remained one of the Pac-12's best, as several players stepped up to fill the massive void left by Lloyd.

Inside linebacker Karene Reid built on an impressive freshman campaign and emerged as one of the team's best defenders, finishing third on the Utes with 72 tackles. Reid is the perfect symbol of what makes the Ute defense so impressive; although he wasn't highly recruited, he's grown up fast in Salt Lake City and epitomizes this defense's hard-nosed culture.

It will be interesting to see who starts alongside Reid at the other inside linebacker spot. Lander Barton was a big-name recruit who made five starts last fall and eventually ended up winning Pac-12 Defensive Freshman of the Year. He looked like an ideal candidate to have a huge season, but the Utes brought in Stanford transfer Levani Samua, who started 27 games during his Stanford tenure. Do they go with the established veteran, or the rising star? It should end up being a fascinating position battle.

Utah's pass defense did slip a bit in 2022, although it did step up when needed, with the UCLA game being a notable exception. Unfortunately, the unit's distinguished leader the several years moves on, in Clark Phillips III. Phillips was one of the highest-rated recruits to ever sign with Utah and looked like it from the moment he stepped on campus. He wrapped up his career by earning All-American honors, primarily thanks to his six interceptions.

Phillips may leave a notable hole at corner, but veteran JaTravis Broughton returns and the Utes may have brought on a replacement in Ole Miss transfer Miles Battle. Broughton might not have the ball skills of Phillips, but he was better than him at times last season and is an established presence. 

The safety position also loses a big name, as R.J. Hubert departs after finishing second on the team in tackles and picking off three passes of his own. Fortunately, free safety Cole Bishop is a rangy, intense defensive back with a proven pedigree. He'll come up often in run support and at 6'2" with long arms, he finds a way to get into passing lanes. Sophomore Sione Vaki started five games last fall and could be starting next to him at strong safety, although Nate Ritchie returns from a LDS Mission after starting every game in 2020.

Is there any chance this defense isn't strong once more in 2023? There's just such a clear-cut culture in place and Whittingham and staff have even elevated some of the talent they're getting on this side of the ball, while maintaining their style. This defense will undoubtedly be one of the Pac-12's best and likely in the mix for national recognition as well.

Special Teams: Special teams has traditionally been a strength for Utah under Whittingham, but the unit has slipped in recent years. Kickers Jordan Noyes and Jadon Redding went 10-14 on field goals, but it didn't feel like the Utes could rely on that position like they have in the past. They're hoping the addition of Colorado transfer Cole Becker, who hit 25-33 over his time in Boulder, is an upgrade. Punter should be in a good spot, as veteran Jack Bouwmeester has proven to be solid and returns to Salt Lake City.

Bottom Line

Utah has become the Pac-12's model program, a machine that reloads each and every single season. I've been a believer that they are going to break through and reach the College Football Playoff at some point in the near future, particularly with the 12-team model right around the corner, but I'm not sure 2023 is the year they reach that goal. Rising's health is a big enough concern to be slightly wary, even with all the other offensive pieces but more importantly, the schedule may be the most difficult in the Pac-12. Their road games include Baylor in the non-conference, and Oregon State, USC, Washington, and Arizona in the league. The home slate is significantly easier and this program is nearly unbeatable in Rice-Eccles Stadium, but still includes Florida, UCLA, and Oregon. Even a consistent winner like Utah is going to take some lumps against this schedule, so it feels like instead of a third straight Rose Bowl, the Utes are more around the 9-10 win range and settling for a quality, but less tantalizing, bowl game.

Program Profile

Coaching Staff

Kyle Whittingham enters Year 29 on staff at Utah, with the first ten coming as defensive coordinator. He is tied with Mike Gundy as the second longest-tenured FBS head coach, taking the Utes from a plucky Mountain West underdog to a Pac-12 power. His offensive coordinator is Andy Ludwig, who is in his second stint in the role. Ludwig has bounced around as an offensive coordinator throughout his career, spending most of his time on the West Coast in and in the Pacific Northwest, before stints at Wisconsin and Vanderbilt from 2013-2018. On defense, former Ute defensive back Morgan Scalley enters his eighth season as the team's coordinator. Scalley was an All-American as a player and knows Salt Lake City like the back of his hand, born and raised here and spending his entire coaching tenure in the city. 

Recruiting Breakdown

Utah has elevated their recruiting in recent years under Whittingham; they still get players that fit their system to a tee, but have infused both sides of the ball with significantly more athleticism and versatility. The Class of 2023 is one of Whittingham's best yet, ranking No. 21 in the nation. The group is particularly strong along the lines, with future starting tackles Spencer Fano and Caleb Lomu leading the charge. Defensive end Hunter Clegg is a former Stanford commit who instead opted to remain in the state of Utah, giving the Utes an extremely agile edge rusher with serious upside. Corner C.J. Blocker from Texas is another four-star of note, but the player I'm watching with particular interest is wide out Mikey Matthews, who could slide into immediate snaps in the slot. Matthews won't be the most physically imposing receiver on this Utah roster, but is a fluid athlete who should learn a lot from this deep and experienced wide out room.

2023 Schedule Analysis

The schedule-makers did Utah no favors this year, and they didn't help themselves out by scheduling the 1-2 punch of Florida and Baylor in the non-conference. Utah is a superior team than both, but they still represent significant tests, and the Baylor game is in Waco. A date with Weber State will provide a nice reprieve before Pac-12 play begins with UCLA, then a road trip to Corvallis on a short week. After the early October bye, the schedule doesn't thin out much, with three road games (USC, Washington, Arizona) and the Oregon game. It's the toughest road schedule in the Pac-12 this season and arguably the toughest overall slate in the conference. Returning to a third straight Pac-12 Championship Game may be a possibility, but it will take an extra bit of work from Whittingham and this entire team.

2023 X-Factor: Cole Becker, K

Although Rising's health appears to be the greatest X-Factor to watch for Utah in 2023, I'm more curious whether the kicking game can recover this fall. It's not like it was abysmal last fall, as Jordan Noyes and Jadon Redding combined for pretty good numbers, but it hasn't felt as reliable the last several seasons. That's a big deal, as the Utes tend to play a style that includes plenty of dog fights and close contests. Heck, just look at some of their close wins (USC, Washington State) and close losses (Florida, Oregon) last year. Colorado transfer Cole Becker brings a proven pedigree back to Utah, a veteran who made 24 starts in Boulder and knows how to succeed in this league. The numbers were very strong overall for Becker with the Buffs; he hit 25-33 field goals, with a long of 56, and also showcased a massive boot on kickoffs. It seems like a fair assumption he'll be able to translate that success with the Utes, although kicking is a fickle game and you can never have too much confidence about one single player at the collegiate level.

Team Projections

Projected Record: 9-3 (6-3 Pac-12)

Offensive MVP: QB Cam Rising

Defensive MVP: S Cole Bishop

Impact Freshman: WR Mike Mitchell

Impact Transfer: WR Mycah Pittman

Breakout Player of the Year: LB Lander Barton

Five-Year Trend

College Football Preview 2023: 14. Texas Longhorns

Quinn Ewers, Texas

14. Texas Longhorns

There are no more excuses this year; it's conference title-or-bust in UT's final Big 12 run

2022 Review

Texas opened up with Louisiana-Monroe last fall, but the season really began when they welcomed Alabama to Austin in Week Two. It was the perfect way for the program to test itself with the move to the SEC looming, and they didn't disappoint. They outplayed the Tide for nearly the entire four quarters but fell just short, 20-19. It was the type of game that you can almost count as a win because of how impressive the Longhorns looked, and they seemed to build on it with a three-touchdown domination of UTSA a week later. Unfortunately, the same old demons resurfaced at Texas Tech, as the 21st-ranked 'Horns lost an overtime thriller, 37-34. They recovered with a three-game win streak that was halted on the road in Stillwater and after beating Kansas State, watched their offense falter against TCU. A pair of victories to end the regular season offered a bright spot but in their third Alamo Bowl in four years, they came up short against Washington. All in all, an 8-5 record marked solid progress for Steve Sarkisian and staff but per usual, left Texas fans thirsting for more. As they prepare for their final season in the Big 12, there's more pressure than ever in what feels like a make-or-break campaign.

2023 Outlook

Offense: After an inconsistent offensive showing in 2021, the Texas offense seemed to find their footing last fall. Sarkisian seemed to have a better understanding of the personnel on the roster and seemed more comfortable as a play-caller, resulting in a group that averaged 34.5 points per game. There's reason to believe Year Three will be even better, as the 'Horns are absolutely loaded with weapons on this side of the ball.

It's Quinn Ewers team now, as the nation's former No. 1 recruit enters his second season as starting quarterback. Ewers flashed superstar potential over the course of 2022 but dealt with injuries and the normal growing pains of being a first-time starter. The result was a 2,177-yard, 15 TD performance that could set the stage for a true breakthrough this fall. Ewers seems to have embraced the pressure, cleaning up his image and going through the offseason with a renewed focus. He has Heisman-level talent, but as is always the case at Texas, putting it together for an entire season is the goal.

The health of Ewers will be particularly vital, as backup Hudson Card transferred to Purdue. Texas did bring in one of the most hyped football prospects in recent memory in Arch Manning and redshirt freshman Maalik Murphy remains on the roster, but neither have seen any live game action at this level.

The biggest question on the entire roster is likely at running back, as Bijan Robinson moves on after three impressive seasons in Austin. Robinson was finally 100 percent and used to his full potential, resulting in a year in which he ran for 1,580 yards and 18 touchdowns. His departure will be an obvious storyline, and losing steady backup Roschon Johnson isn't an insignificant loss.

That leaves the Longhorns deciding between an unproven cast of characters at tailback, including junior Keilan Robinson, sophomores Jayon Blue and Jonathan Brooks, and freshman C.J. Baxter. Robinson is the old man in the room, but isn't much more than a special teams weapon, while Brooks is the top returning rusher. The door is open for Baxter, considered one of the nation's top RB recruits, to come in and immediately see carries.

Fortunately, the aerial attack should alleviate most of the pressure on the running game. Ewers is blessed with what is arguably the nation's best receiver corps, one brimming with talent and depth. The headliner is Xavier Worthy, who totaled 760 yards and nine touchdowns in 2022. There were rumors that several programs took a swing on Worthy through NIL incentives, but the junior is committed to the Longhorns.

Aside from Worthy, converted tailback Jordan Whittingon has proven to be extremely reliable when healthy and should make teams think twice about focusing on Worthy. Then there's Georgia transfer Adonai Mitchell and former Wyoming transfer Isaiah Neyor, who would be leading options on just about any other Big 12 roster. Neyor in particular seemed primed for a huge fall a season ago, but tore his ACL before playing a single snap. That could provide an extra bit of motivation for the sure-handed veteran.

With all that talent out wide, it's easy to forget about tight end, but Ja'Tavion Sanders is the type of player that can create headaches for opposing defensive coordinators. At 6'4", 240 pounds with elite athleticism, he's a matchup nightmare who came into his own down the stretch a year ago. He's the top tight end in the league and should be a Mackey Award favorite, particularly in this offense.

Offensive line is the position group that took the biggest jump last season and now, all five starters are back. It's a phenomenon that should set this apart from previous Texas teams, as these blockers should give the 'Horns an edge and ferocity that has been absent for too long.

Sophomore left tackle Kelvin Banks is the star of the line, a former five-star who started all 13 games as a true freshman. He'll pair with a proven veteran, Christian Jones, on the exterior, while Jake Majors, Cole Hutson, and Hayden Conner overwhelm defenders on the inside. All of these five should be in the running for All-Big 12 recognition and combine to form a Joe Moore Award contender.

All the ingredients are in place for this to be a special offensive season in Austin. Ewers is the most talented signal-caller this program has had running the show in some time, the pass-catchers are elite, and the line play will bully opponents. It's hard to see any scenario, with the exception of injuries, where this is not the Big 12's best and one of the best nationally.

Defense: Rebuilding the Texas defense has felt like a never-ending struggle stretching back to the late Mack Brown years, but this group seemed to turn a corner last season. They were overall very consistent and put up numbers across the board. Just as important, they showed up in some of the biggest games on the schedule, even if the offense didn't always match their performance.

Although the defensive line did lose several pieces to the NFL, it still appears to be in fairly good shape. Junior end Barryn Sorrell was a pleasant surprise in 2022 and should cement himself as the team's top pass rusher, while senior tackle T'Vondre Sweat is a proven commodity. The opposite end spot is a weak spot as it stands today but this is Texas, so there's no shortage of talented options.

Sweat is unquestionably the tone-setter on the interior D-Line, but I think there are several players that have potential to emerge. Minnesota transfer DeAngelo "Trill" Carter flashed plenty of upside in the Twin Cities but never quite put it together. He could benefit from having even more talent around him, that will open up opportunities. And, I still believe in junior Alfred Collins, who looked on his way to stardom with an impressive 2020 campaign, before a pair of quiet years. You'll rarely see a player at 315 pounds move the way Collins does, but something has been missing the last few years. It feels like it's now or never entering his fourth year on campus.

The linebacker corps helped the rush defense take major steps forward in 2022, but the architect of that revival, DeMarvion Overshown is gone. The physical linebacker was drafted in the third round of this spring's NFL Draft, leaving a big void in production and leadership. However, middle linebacker Jaylan Ford was the one who actually paced Texas in tackles a year ago and is back in the fold.

Ford will man his position on the inside and at outside linebacker, there's a whirlwind of hype surrounding newcomer Anthony Hill. Hill is the top player at his position in the Class of 2023 and impressed throughout the spring. He's penciled in as a starter already, although he'll still have to earn this job.

There was again solid progress on the back-end in 2022, as the Longhorns improved from one of the worst pass defenses in the Big 12 to about middle-of-the-road. Can they continue on that upwards trajectory? There are some losses, notably D'Shawn Jamison and Anthony Cook, but enough returning experience for the unit to be strength in 2023.

Corner Ryan Watts was one of the Longhorns most consistent defenders after transferring over from Ohio State and should lead the pass defense. The corner spot opposite of him will be an interesting watch now that Cook moves on, as Wake Forest transfer Gavin Holmes is battling several candidates, including sophomore Terrance Brooks and redshirt freshman X'Avion Brice. Holmes brings proven experience to the table, but was never able to quite break through on some leaky Wake Forest defenses.

At safety, junior Jerrin Thompson emerged as a reliable tackler and also proved to be a pest in coverage, batting away seven passes. He's likely to be joined by Arkansas transfer Jalen Catalon, assuming he can stay on the field. Catalon has proven he can be an impact player, but knee injuries have stunted his growth over the last several years.

Defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski enters Year Three with what looks to be his best defense yet. Although there will be some new faces, there's a healthy amount of experience throughout and several helpful transfers at need positions. Playing up to their potential has always been a struggle on this side of the ball for Texas, but they look like they should be able to carry over the momentum they earned during the back-half of 2022.

Special Teams: There were significant questions on special teams entering 2022, mainly due to the loss of star kicker Cameron Dicker, but they were a pleasant surprise. This season, the Longhorns bring back Bert Auburn at kicker after he hit 21-26 field goals and at punter, Stanford transfer Ryan Sanborn is a proven commodity. Keilan Robinson has also proven to be a tremendous returner, meaning this unit should be a strength once again.

Bottom Line

If you gave me this exact roster with no indication that it had a Longhorn on the helmet, I may pick it to win the National Title. There's that much talent, that much playmakers, and just an overall positive direction permeating throughout the roster. But, this is Texas. The program has turned in a staggering run of seasons in which they haven't been able to come close to the preseason hype, a run of consistent disappointments. Even last season, a year in which they turned the corner in many ways, they still lost five games through close defeats and bad injury luck. Is this the team that can reverse that trend? I think they certainly can, and there's never been a better time. The Big 12 is wide open and the Longhorns won't get these types of opportunities when they move on to the SEC. But, even putting this team 14th in the national rankings and picking them to win the Big 12 feels difficult for me and I worry that the natural volatility of the league could catch the 'Horns up in the fray. So, in short: I'm endorsing Texas, but in about as lukewarm of a way possible.

Program Profile

Coaching Staff

Steve Sarkisian has long had a reputation for being a great offensive mind, going all the way back to his time at USC under Pete Carroll. After getting his start as head coach at Washington, Sarkisian returned to USC as head coach, but problems with alcohol led to his dismissal during the 2015 season. Sark's redemption has been an inspirational story, as he won the Broyles Award as Alabama OC in 2020 before taking the Texas job. He still calls plays at Texas, although former Rutgers head coach Kyle Flood holds the offensive coordinator title. On defense, Pete Kwiatkowski enters Year Three as coordinator after a long run under Chris Petersen at both Boise State and Washington. 

Recruiting Breakdown

Recruiting has never been the issue at Texas and the 2023 Class is again one of the best in the country, coming at third in the 247Sports Composite. The Class is headlined by Arch Manning, one of the most hyped recruits in recent college football history and the nephew of Peyton and Eli Manning. At 6'4", 210 pounds, Arch has the looks of an NFL quarterback, but it's likely he'll wait his turn at UT behind Ewers, at least for one year. Manning is one of four five-star prospects in the Class, including linebacker Anthony Hill, tailback C.J. Baxter, and wide receiver Johntay Cook II. Both Hill and Baxter could be in line for significant snaps as true freshmen and both were in Austin for the spring. Another name that could see immediate snaps is corner Malik Muhammed, a four-star from Dallas. Texas kept him away from several other big-time programs, namely Alabama and Texas A&M, and Muhammed's skill-set indicates he should be able to acclimate to the collegiate game quickly.

2023 Schedule Analysis

Although it will be the final year in Big 12 play for Texas, they will get a nice glimpse of what SEC life will be like when they travel to Tuscaloosa on September 9. The Longhorns gave the Tide all they could handle a season ago, but going on the road to Bryant-Denny will be a whole different animal. The rest of the non-conference, which includes Rice and Wyoming, should be a breeze before the Longhorns travel to Baylor to begin conference action. The annual "Red River Showdown" with Oklahoma will take place on October 7th this year before a bye that sets the Longhorns up nicely for the back-half of their schedule. That back-half includes a pivotal three-game stretch that includes Kansas State at home, and road tilts with TCU and Iowa State. It's likely that stretch will determine whether Texas has a chance to play for their first Big 12 Title since 2009.

2023 X-Factor: Quinn Ewers, QB

For all the attention and hype as Arch Manning has received in recent years, it's easy to forget just how much of a superstar Quinn Ewers was coming out of high school. He was the nation's consensus No. 1 recruit in the Class of 2022 before reclassifying and enrolled at Ohio State a year earlier. After transferring to Texas, Ewers flashed that superstar potential with the 'Horns last fall, but with it came some understanding growing pains and an unfortunate rash of injuries. As he prepares for his second season as starter, it feels like Ewers could be on the precipice of something special. He's seemed more focused this offseason and seems to have his sights on lofty goals, but can he handle all the pressure that will come with it? Ewers seems to have his head on straight and it helps that the Longhorns are loaded with talent offensively, but maintaining his play week-to-week and staying on the field will determine what type of season it will be for him. He truly has Heisman talent, but it wouldn't be a complete shock if injuries or inconsistent play capped his ceiling. That's what makes Ewers one of the most compelling players to watch in college football this fall.

Team Projections

Projected Record: 10-3 (7-2 Big 12, Win Big 12 Championship Game)

Offensive MVP: QB Quinn Ewers

Defensive MVP: LB Jaydan Ford

Impact Freshman: RB C.J. Baxter

Impact Transfer: S Jalen Catalon

Breakout Player of the Year: CB Terrance Brooks

Five-Year Trend

College Football Preview 2023: 15. Tennessee Volunteers

Joe Milton, Tennessee

15. Tennessee Volunteers

Are the Vols back? How this team handles going from the "hunters" to the "hunted" will determine whether or not they are a sincere threat to Georgia in the East

2022 Review

Following a strong showing from Josh Heupel and his staff during the debut 2021 campaign, there was a buzz around Tennessee football entering last season. And, the Volunteers quickly proved that excitement was well warranted. After splattering Ball State at home to begin the year, a road trip to Pittsburgh gave the program an opportunity to prove themselves against a quality Power Five team. Hanging on to win 34-27 to beat the Panthers may not have seemed like a statement victory at the time, but it did feel like a turning point, setting the stage for a magical season. The Vols would go on to hang 63 on Akron and then overcame Florida in their annual rivalry game, going into a critical two-game stretch with LSU and Alabama undefeated. While past Tennessee teams have folded under the immense hype, the 2022 edition kept on chugging. They went into Baton Rouge and dominated the eventual SEC West Champion Tigers, then outlasted Alabama in one of the best games of the season. It was their first victory in the "Third Saturday in October" rivalry game since 2007. A few weeks later, they rode into Athens for a game against Georgia as the No. 2 team in the country, but the magic ended "Between the Hedges" in Sanford Stadium, 27-13. The Voluneers still had a shot at the College Football Playoff, but were upset two weeks later by South Carolina, losing star QB Hendon Hooker for the season. They ended up playing in the Orange Bowl against Clemson, but proved the season was no fluke by rolling past the Tigers, finishing 11-2. It was the type of year Vol fans have been waiting a decade-and-a-half for, but leaves them wanting even more. Expectations have been taken up another notch and the program is eager to prove last fall wasn't a flash in the pan, but the new norm in Knoxville.

2023 Outlook

Offense: Tennessee's offense rewrote record books last fall, scoring the most points (599) in a single-season in school history. It was the most fun offense to watch in college football, and one that never shied away from its competition. On the contrary, the Volunteers reached another gear in some of their most important games, dropping 40 against LSU, 52 against Alabama, and 44 against Kentucky.

The engine behind the offense was quarterback Hendon Hooker, a former Virginia Tech transfer who looked on his way to a Heisman Trophy before the late-season injury. He would finish with 3,135 yards and 32 total touchdowns, while throwing just two interceptions. Unfortunately, Hooker has exhausted his eligibility, meaning that there will be a new figure at the controls of Josh Heupel's offense.

Joe Milton, who began his career at Michigan and actually beat out Hooker for the starting job in early 2021, is expected to get the first crack at running the show. Milton has one of the strongest arms you'll ever find in the collegiate ranks, but has struggled with accuracy and decision-making. He doesn't have to be Hooker for this offense to succeed, but has to learn to reel in all that arm strength and play more in control. If he doesn't, Tennessee happens to have one of the most hyped recruits in program history waiting behind him in Nico Iamaleava, who may be the most talented signal-caller to put on a Tennessee uniform since Peyton Manning.

Fortunately for Milton, he has no shortage of weapons at his disposal. Although top receivers Jalin Hyatt and Cedric Tillman have moved on to the NFL, Bru McCoy proved that he could handle being a top option in the passing game, recording 667 yards on 52 receptions in 2022. He's had a strange career up to this point, but clearly has NFL talent and seems to have found the right fit here in Knoxville. He could be one of the top receivers in the SEC in 2023.

Veteran Ramel Keyton and rising sophomore Squirrel White are also back, and Tennessee added reinforcements in the form of Oregon transfer Dont'e Thornton. Keyton is more of your traditional boundary receiver, while White is a speedster who had a huge showing in the bowl and seems to be just scratching the surface of his potential. Meanwhile, Thornton is a big-bodied option who never seemed to get the targets he needed on the West Coast, but could reach another gear in this wide-open offense.

With how dominant the passing attack was throughout nearly all of 2022, it was easy to forget about this Tennessee ground game. However, tailbacks Jaylen Wright and Jabari Small formed a potent 1-2 punch that took advantage of the major gaps afforded to them by stretched-out defenses, both tallying 700-plus yards. Add in sophomore Dylan Sampson, who ran for 397 yards on his own, this is arguably the deepest running back room in the SEC.

The line is another component of the offense that often got overlooked last season, but is a crucial ingredient of this team's success. Losing Darnell Wright, who went in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft stings, but three starters are back to lead the way. Junior center Cooper Mays will anchor the unit in the middle, while Gerald Mincey and Javontez Spraggins offer proven commodities at both tackle and guard, respectively. Expect Texas transfer Andrej Karic to also slide into a starting role, although he just didn't get much of a chance to show what he could do in Austin.

Heupel has been known as an offensive savant for some time now, but with Tennessee he now has a staggering amount of talent at his disposal. The 2023 group might have a tough time replicating last season's success only because the bar was set so high, but this should remain one of the most explosive offenses in the country. Quarterback feels like the only potential problem area and all that position needs to do in this offense is get the ball out to these playmakers and let them do their thing.

Defense: Any defense is going to have a tough time when paired with this type of offense when you consider how long they have to be on the field. However, the 2022 group did about as well as you could ask, although the 63 points they allowed to South Carolina in the late-season upset likely provides an extra bit of motivation.

Third-year defensive coordinator Tim Banks will rely once again on an aggressive, blitz-heavy scheme that will give up the occasional big play - but force ample turnovers. It's very much a bend-not-break philosophy as the Volunteers allowed a reasonable 22.8 points per game in 2022, despite teams averaging over 400 yards against them.

Up front, the big news is the departure of end Byron Young, who was drafted in the third round of the NFL Draft. He led the team with seven sacks last fall and was their most consistent defender for most of the year. With LaTrell Bumphis, the end opposite of him, also moving on, the chief priority for Tennessee will be finding some new faces to pressure off the edge.

Arizona State transfer Omarr Norman-Lott was a quality addition over the offseason, while holdovers like Tyler Baron, Roman Harrison, and Joshua Josephs will be counted on heavily. Baron has proven to be an effective disruptor who can also make his presence felt in run support, but the lack of depth could be a concern as the season wears on.

The linebacker corps isn't as naturally talented as other position groups on the roster, but boasts a proven veteran in Aaron Beasley and also added a big-name newcomer in the form of Keenan Pili. Beasley, the team's middle linebacker, led the Vols in tackles and should be cleaning up early and often once again. He's also going to get into the backfield and make plays; he notched 10 TFL and nine quarterback hurries during the 2022 campaign. Pili was a longtime contributor at BYU who should be able to make the jump to SEC ball without too much difficulties. He spent the spring in Knoxville, which should be crucial in helping him acclimate to this system.

Although Tennessee's pass defense was leaky throughout most of last season, there's reason to believe it might actually be the strength of the unit this fall. They dealt with a barrage of injuries last season throughout the secondary, including losing starting corner Warren Burrell in September. That allowed youngsters on the roster to see important snaps and now, there's loads of experience.

Corners Kamal Hadden and Doneiko Slaughter are expected to run it back as the starters, after making 13 starts between them, although Burrell and former Alabama transfer Brandon Turnage will also feature in heavily. Burrell has made 22 starts throughout his UT career and appears to be healthy; he could be one of the team's leaders this season.

The rest of the secondary also appears locked in, with senior Jaylen McCullough manning the strong safety spot and hard-hitting Tamarion McDonald back at nickel. The only spot up in the air heading into fall camp is at free safety, where Trevon Flowers departs after a highly productive career in a Vols uniform.

I'd be surprised if Tennessee sees significant improvement in their defensive numbers this fall based purely on their style of play, but it's unfair to consider this is a weakness, either. There's plenty of pieces back at every level and if they can find identify some new pass rushers, there's reason to believe it can climb into consideration as one of the better defenses in the SEC.

Special Teams: The biggest question mark for Tennessee entering 2023 isn't quarterback, or defensive end, or even the overall pressure of replicating such a magical season. No, it's their special teams. They lose their kicker, punter, and kick returner, which can create some real concerns when so many SEC games are deciding on the margins. Landing Charles Campbell from Indiana to take over at kicker was a great start, as he brings a proven veteran, but both punter and return game remain serious problem areas to consider heading into the new season.

Bottom Line

When you're a proud program that has suffered through a decade-and-a-half of misery, it's easy for fans to push the narrative that you're "back" after one special season. Unfortunately, the path back to national relevance isn't always a linear one. Texas won a New Year's Six bowl under Tom Herman. Miami was in the National Title hunt deep into November under Mark Richt. Nebraska was at one point 9-0 under Mike Riley and thinking of Big Ten Titles. But, I don't believe 2022 was some flash in the pan for Heupel and company. There's been a complete attitude shift around the program and not just a belief that this team can once again compete for SEC Titles, but a system in place to get them there. Does that mean Tennessee is going to get as high as No. 2 in the AP Poll again in 2023? Maybe not, but without another serious threat inside the division at the moment, the Volunteers remain the greatest challengers to Georgia in the SEC East. The schedule sets up perfectly for them to once again hover near that 10-win plateau and give the Bulldogs reason to watch over their shoulders, especially when you consider that game will be at Neyland Stadium this fall.

Program Profile

Coaching Staff

Josh Heupel enters Year Three as the man in charge of Tennessee football, fresh off winning SEC Coach of the Year honors. The former Oklahoma quarterback won a National Title as a player under Bob Stoops and although he's still looking for the same hardware as a coach, he's done a superb job at Tennessee and UCF, with a 46-16 overall record. After offensive coordinator Alex Golesh left to take the South Florida job, Joey Halzle will take over as OC, while retaining his duties as QB coach. Halzle has followed Heupel through stops at Oklahoma, Utah State, UCF, and now Tennessee, serving as QB coach over the last two seasons. On defense, Tim Banks will be entering his third season as the team's defensive coordinator. Prior to this current role, Banks was co-DC and safeties coach at Penn State, overseeing a safety room that sent several Nittany Lions to the NFL.

Recruiting Breakdown

The Volunteers did a good job capitalizing on their on-field success by securing a Top 10 Class nationally. It's a group headlined by none other than Nico Iamaleava, one of the most hyped recruits to ever step foot on UT's campus. The 6'5", 195-pound gunslinger would be the top QB in just about any other class other than 2023, as he comes in just behind Arch Manning. He signed a massive NIL deal in March of 2022 that could earn him as much as eight million over three years. Iamaleava is the major name offensively, but this staff did a fine job beefing up the defensive side of the ball throughout the rest of the class. Four-star defensive linemen Daevin Hobbs is a Top 100 prospect from the state of North Carolina, while edge Caleb Herring could realistically see immediate playing time at a need position. Athlete Cameron Seldon could be one of the most fascinating pieces from the group, a four-star prospect who could play multiple different spots. Running back, receiver, linebacker, defensive back, the Volunteers are going to find some way to utilize his talents and the explosive Seldon has the build to star at all of them.

2023 Schedule Analysis

For the second straight year, Tennessee will travel to play an ACC team in the non-conference, although this game will be closer to home than their Pittsburgh matchup in 2022. Instead, they get Virginia in Nashville, which should be extremely winnable considering that it's essentially a home game for the Vols and the Cavaliers are widely considered among the worst in the ACC. The rest of the non-conference September slate includes Austin Peay and UTSA, which is split by the annual Florida rivalry game on the 16th. The Volunteers then welcome South Carolina and get a much-needed bye before the stretch that will decide their season. Tennessee gets Texas A&M at home and then goes on the road to Alabama for the "Third Saturday in October" and Kentucky a week later. After a slight reprieve with UConn, SEC play concludes with a three-game stretch that is on the road against Missouri, at home against Georgia, and at home against Vanderbilt. Getting UGA at home is huge, but the trio of road games - Florida, Alabama, and Kentucky are what matters here. If they can come out with two victories in that three game series, it sets up nicely for a successful season on Rocky Top.

2023 X-Factor: Charles Campbell, K

It's not often you see me label a kicker as an X-Factor, but Charles Campbell has some big shoes to fill. Chase McGrath was a multiyear weapon for the Volunteers after coming over from USC earlier in his career. In 2022, he not only went 16-20, but hit the game-winning field goal against Alabama that secured Tennessee their first victory in the series in 15 years. Fortunately, Campbell does bring plenty of experience, making 32 starts over four years at Indiana and hitting 39 of 51 field goal attempts. But, is he ready to handle the overwhelming pressure of life in the SEC? It's one thing to be the placekicker at Indiana, but handling the raucous environments of the SEC each week takes more than a big leg - it's such a mental game. If Campbell isn't up to the task, this feels like it could be the type of nagging issue that becomes an Achilles Heel for a team with big dreams this fall.

Team Projections

Projected Record: 9-3 (5-3 SEC)

Offensive MVP: WR Bru McCoy

Defensive MVP: LB Aaron Beasley

Impact Freshman: DE Caleb Herring

Impact Transfer: LB Keenan Pili

Breakout Player of the Year: WR Squirrel White

Five-Year Trend

College Football Preview 2023: 16. Kansas State Wildcats

Will Howard, Kansas State

16. Kansas State Wildcats

Reminder: It was K-State, not TCU, that took the Big 12 last fall and Chris Kleiman's group will be a tough out again

2022 Review

Kansas State got off to a fast start in 2022, which included a 40-12 dismantling of former Big 12 foe Missouri, but a September loss to Tulane looked to be a momentum killer at the time. Of course, that same Tulane team would go on to win the Cotton Bowl, but it looked like it could be a sign of worrying things to come for the Wildcats. It wasn't, as Kansas State rebounded by going on the road and beating then-No. 6 Oklahoma, and winning six of their next eight games. Their two losses were to TCU and Texas, and the Wildcats got vengeance in the Big 12 Championship Game by overcoming the Horned Frogs in overtime, 31-28. The victory not only got K-State to the ten-win plateau, but was their first solo Big 12 Title since 2003. The good vibes from that win weren't erased despite a 45-20 loss to Alabama in the Sugar Bowl. On the contrary, K-State feels like they have a shot to be a power player in the new-look Big 12, which doesn't seem crazy given the consistency of the program under fifth-year head man Chris Kleiman. 

2023 Outlook

Offense: Deuce Vaughn was the heart-and-soul of the Kansas State offense a season ago, totaling nearly 2,000 all-purpose yards and 12 total touchdowns. He leaves Manhattan as No. 2 on the Wildcat all-time rushing list, coming in behind only Darren Sproles. His decision to leave a year early wasn't altogether surprising, but leaves a major void on the offensive side of the ball.

Fortunately, the cupboard is not bare offensively, including in the backfield. Sophomore D.J. Giddens quietly ran for 518 yards as Vaughn's backup in 2022 and seems capable of handling a feature role. K-State also brought in veteran Treshaun Ward from Florida State who ran for 626 yards for the Seminoles last fall, averaging over six yards per carry. Between the two of them, they should be able to get close to replicating Vaughn's numbers, if not outright match them.

There's also the chance of improvement at quarterback, after the Wildcats were forced to play musical chairs with the position last fall. Nebraska transfer Adrian Martinez began the year but dealt with injuries throughout and was lost for the season in the Baylor win. That forced the Wildcats to burn the redshirt on Will Howard, who is now the clear top dog entering 2023.

Howard has seen a fair amount of snaps as a backup due to injuries in front of him, and he seemed to turn a corner late last season. Although accuracy remains an issue, Howard showed a willingness to take shots down the field and open up this offense in a way it typically hasn't under Kleiman. If he can build on 2022, there's a chance he could be one of the best the Big 12 has to offer.

If there is an area of concern on this side of the ball, it's probably at receiver. Receivers Malik Knowles and Kade Warner both depart, as does tight end Sammy Wheeler. Returning longtime wide out Phillip Brooks has proven he can be the lead option, but finding a quality No. 2 will be the goal for K-State throughout fall camp and into the season. Sophomore R.J. Garcia is a viable breakout candidate, but my bet is on Iowa transfer Keagan Johnson. The talented Johnson was held back by the anemic passing attack run by the Hawkeyes, but could flourish in this type of system.

Tight end Ben Sinnott was actually the team's top tight end in 2022, not Wheeler, and should be among the best in the conference. However, the Wildcats do typically run two tight end sets and it's not obvious where they will go with the second spot, with sophomore Will Swanson the most likely candidate.

Strong offensive line play is a typical cornerstone of Kleiman-coached teams, and that appears to be the case once again in 2023. All five starters return to a group that was impressive last fall, led by All-American guard Cooper Bebee. Senior left tackle K.T. Leveston and senior center Hayden Gillium also received Honorable Mention All-Big 12 last season and add in plenty of depth behind them, this has the chance to be one of the best offensive lines in the country and is a serious Joe Moore Award contender.

As much as losing Vaughn hurts, Kansas State's offense is in as good of shape as you could ask for considering the circumstances. Howard offers a proven, veteran quarterback, they should be able to replicate Vaughn's production and the O-Line will be superb. That doesn't mean this offense will be dropping 40 per game this fall, considering how Kleiman operates, but it has a chance to be among the best in the Big 12.

Defense: Kansas State rarely boasts superstars on the defensive side of the ball, but this has been one of the most consistently strong units in the conference for some time now. Longtime defensive coordinator Joe Klanderman has built an impressive culture here, one that shows up each and every week.

Although this defense isn't typically known for its star power, it will be losing a big name in end Felix Anudike-Uzomah, a reigning All-American who went in the first round of the NFL Draft. However, the defensive line still has a chance to be stout, with edge rushers Brendan Mott and Khalid Duke back in the fold. Duke has a chance to step up and be the fearsome rusher that Anudike-Uzomah was, and Mississippi State transfer Jevon Banks could slide into a starting spot immediately at nose guard.

Seeing former walk-ons evolve into top contributors is one of the things that makes college football so special. Such is the case with Austin Moore, a junior who will lead the linebacker corps. He led the team with 87 tackles last fall, along with 8.5 TFL. Daniel Green is back alongside him, another proven contributor, but the Wildcats will have to figure out the outside linebacker spots. Sophomore V.J. Payne showed flashes of brilliance a year ago and feels like a potential breakout candidate, but the lack of depth here could be a slight concern in this league.

The pairing of Julius Brents and Ekow Boye-Doe fueled a solid pass defense last fall, arguably the most under-appreciated combo in the country. Yet, both departed over the offseason, leaving the Wildcats scrambling to find replacements. Expect junior college transfer Will Lee to slide into a starting role, but there aren't a ton of proven options at the position. Sophomore Jacob Parrish played in all 14 contests last season and should also vie for a starting spot.

Getting a healthy Kobe Savage back at safety should work wonders for this secondary, as he missed the final four games of 2022 with injury. He's one of the Big 12's best and a real tone-setter for the entire defense.

There is turnover to be wary of on this Wildcat defense, but they retain a quality core that includes Duke, Moore, and Savage. If they can figure out the cornerback situation, this unit should remain among the best in the league and has potential to be Top 25 nationally.

Special Teams: Junior kicker Chris Tennant does return, but will hope to establish more consistency this season after some ups-and-downs a year ago. Tennant went 9-14 on field goals and 23-25 on extra points in 2022. Punter could be a problem, as Ty Zentner moves on, but senior Jack Blumer has been in the program for years and has experience to work off of.

Bottom Line

In all three of Kleiman's non-COVID seasons, Kansas State has won at least eight games, including ten last fall. That consistency is impressive in any league, but particularly in one as volatile as the Big 12. The Wildcats have the pieces to hit that eight-win mark once again, but they likely have their sights set on even loftier goals. Without a clear favorite in this conference, Kansas State has a real chance to repeat as Big 12 Champions and play themselves into a New Year's Six bowl game. In fact, because of their consistency, Kansas State feels like the safest bet in the league as Texas and Oklahoma prepare for their Big 12 swan song.

Program Profile

Coaching Staff

Chris Kleiman had the unenviable task of replacing a living legend in Bill Snyder, but has done an excellent job in Manhattan. He has a proven track record going back to his time at North Dakota State, where he won four National Titles, and has gone 30-20 with the Wildcats. At offensive coordinator there is former Heisman finalist Collin Klein, who put together one of the best seasons in Kansas State history over a decade ago now. Prior to taking over as OC, Klein coached the quarterbacks from 2018-2021. Defensively, Joe Klanderman followed Kleiman from NDSU and after a year coaching safeties, took as defensive coordinator. 

Recruiting Breakdown

Kleiman and staff hauled in the 39th rated recruiting class in the nation this offseason, headlined by quarterback Avery Johnson. Rated No. 85 overall nationally, Johnson is one of the highest rated recruits to ever sign with Kansas State and looks like the future of the position. There isn't another Top 100 player in the class, but there's quality talent throughout, including four-star edge rusher Jordan Allen and three-star wide receiver Tre Spivey. Spivey in particular was an impressive get for this staff, as they went into the state of Arizona and landed him ahead of both in-state schools. Athlete Asa Newsom is another player to watch, a 6'4", 205-pounder who could play multiple spots. Most see him as a linebacker at the collegiate level, but there's a chance he could play either safety or at one of the skill positions offensively.

2023 Schedule Analysis

An opener against FCS Southeast Missouri State should be a nice primer for Kansas State before they begin a schedule that has plenty of potential landmines. Troy is among the best Group of Five schools in the country and presents a stiff challenge for the Wildcats, although getting them in Manhattan is huge. A road trip to former Big 12 foe Missouri rounds out the non-conference slate before Kansas State collides with league newcomer UCF. After a bye, the schedule really kicks into high gear, as the Wildcats go on the road to both Oklahoma State and Texas Tech before welcoming TCU. In fact, the road schedule is actually quite precarious overall; Oklahoma State will be coming off a bye when Kansas State gets them, and the Wildcats must also travel to Texas and Kansas for the Sunflower Showdown.

2023 X-Factor: Jacob Parrish, CB

Losing both cornerbacks is always a challenge, but particularly so in a conference that still loves to throw the football around the field. Bringing in Will Lee from the junior college ranks helps, but the pressure is on sophomore Jacob Parrish, who could slide into the No. 1 cornerback role. Parrish is one of the few corners on the roster that have seen much game action at this level, as he played in all 14 games during his true freshman campaign. Is he ready to become a leader in this secondary? Having a healthy Kobe Savage back should be huge for the unit as a whole, but how quickly Parrish and the rest of this cornerback room get up to speed could determine whether K-State is able to repeat as conference champs or not.

Team Projections

Projected Record: 9-4 (6-3 Big 12, Lose Big 12 Championship Game)

Offensive MVP: QB Will Howard

Defensive MVP: LB Austin Moore

Impact Freshman: WR Tre Spivey

Impact Transfer: RB Treshaun Ward

Breakout Player of the Year: WR Keagan Johnson

Five-Year Trend