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| Will Howard, Ohio State |
Upsets: 3-6
Superdogs: 4-3
(#4) Ohio State Buckeyes @ (#3) Penn State Nittany Lions
Line: Ohio State -3
O/U: 46.5
Penn State and Ohio State reignite their rivalry this weekend, with the Nittany Lions entering in unfamiliar territory as the higher ranked team - although they still are a home underdog. It's the perfect opportunity for Penn State to prove themselves on a national scale and show that they can win the big one.
Ohio State's loss to Oregon earlier in the year leaves them with little room for error as they push towards the end of the regular season. They're still in a good spot to make the College Football Playoff, but a loss to Penn State could mean a nerve-racking finish, with Indiana, Michigan, and a potential Big Ten Championship Game trip still on the horizon. The offense was far from the problem in the Oregon loss after they went for 467 yards, but two turnovers and the inability to put together a winning drive in the final seconds puts pressure on this side of the ball as they prep for the Nittany Lions. Quarterback Will Howard has been solid, but the Buckeyes will need him to elevate his game down the stretch if they are to still reach their lofty expectations. Fortunately for Howard, he is blessed with a receiver corps that includes Emeka Egbuka and Jeremiah Smith, plus the 1-2 punch of Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson out of the backfield. The skill position talent has never been the issue here at Ohio State, and they should still be able to move the ball aplenty, even against this gifted Penn State defense. It's the offensive line that has to be better, fresh off a shockingly bad performance against Nebraska. The Buckeyes got pushed around in a way we simply aren't used to seeing from this program. That's a real concern against a Nittany Lion defense that loves to blitz, and features several future NFLers across their front seven. Did this Ohio State offensive line figure it out in the span of a week? If not, Chip Kelly and the rest of the Buckeye offense are going to have to be creative in how they approach such a notable weakness up front.
The Nittany Lions fought off Wisconsin to maintain their undefeated record, but took a loss that didn't show up in the "L" column. Starting quarterback Drew Allar was knocked out of the game, and his status for Saturday remains unclear. It's expected we do see him but he's clearly not close to 100 percent, and it could be on a limited basis. That means backup Beau Pribula will have to be ready to go after coming on in relief last weekend. Interestingly enough, there's some thought that Pribula may actually unlock parts of this offense we didn't see with Allar. He doesn't have Allar's arm, but the sophomore is a gifted runner who can open things up with his legs. The Nittany Lions seemed to find their offensive rhythm after he come on last Saturday, and they'll hope to maintain that momentum into this one. With that being said, this is quite the stage to be making a first career start, even at home. He'll also have to deal with an Ohio State defense that seems to be playing extra motivated since the Oregon loss, with J.T. Tuimolalu and company causing plenty of chaos up front. With Allar's status uncertain, expect the Nittany Lions to look to their ground game early and often, even after it was held in check by Wisconsin last week.
Allar's injury, even if he does come back and play in this game, throws this one into uncertainty. Penn State has looked the part all season, but the Buckeyes have long given them troubles, a team that they've struggled to close out. I think the Nittany Lions are better than the same teams that have lost in the past, but the Buckeyes are extra hungry, too. I just don't imagine this Ohio State team losing another close game after Oregon, so I think they finish the job this time.
The Pick: Ohio State, 34 Penn State, 31
(#18) Pittsburgh Panthers @ (#20) SMU Mustangs
Line: SMU -7
O/U: 56.5
As expected, the most important ACC game on the docket this weekend is not Clemson - Louisville but instead Pittsburgh traveling to league newcomer SMU in a Top 20 clash. Pittsburgh has been one of the nation's biggest surprises after their 3-9 mark a year ago, while the Mustangs have acclimated quick to the conference, with their only loss coming to BYU in the non-conference. It should be a good one, as both teams look to solidify their case for a College Football Playoff run.
Pittsburgh offensive coordinator Kade Bell should be a Broyles Award frontrunner with what he's done with this Panther offense over the course of this season. This was one of the worst groups in power conference football a season ago, but is now averaging 40 points per contest under his tutelage. They've done so with a balanced group, with Eli Holstein through the air and with his legs at quarterback, and steady Desmond Reid at tailback. Holstein's status for this game was up in the air through the week after he left the Syracuse win last weekend in the fourth quarter. It sounds like he's expected to go, but one might expect Pittsburgh to be particularly cautious with him in this one given his health. Don't expect to see him out the pocket too often, and they'll likely get him warm with underneath and intermediate throws. Reid should be able to help out plenty not just as a runner but as a receiver, as he's second on the team in receptions and yardage, giving Bell a real weapon that can move all over the field. This will be an interesting test for an SMU defense that has been a pleasant surprise for much of the year. This was a program used to winning shootouts, but with this unit surrendering just over 21 points per game, they've been much more consistent.
SMU's entire season changed when they switched from incumbent starting quarterback Preston Stone to Kevin Jennings, who has been instrumental in their 7-1 start. Interestingly enough, Jennings isn't 100 percent healthy either, and his status was up in the air throughout the last few days in much the same way Holstein's status was. He's since been cleared and should start, but it seems to fair to wonder if we do see Stone at all, who does offer more experience than a traditional backup. Jennings is without one of his top weapons in tight end R.J. Maryland, but the Mustangs still retain more than enough talent to score in bunches. Brashard Smith has been one of the most underrated tailbacks in the nation, while Roderick Daniels Jr. and Jake Bailey hope to step up at receiver with Maryland's absence. In much the way Holstein's legs are a threat, Jennings can make things happen as a dual threat. SMU may also reel him in a bit, but he's the best when he's getting out of the pocket and moving on the run. That will be a unique challenge for Pittsburgh, who really hasn't seen a dual threat quite like Jennings all season. How they handle the pairing of Jennings and Smith should make all the difference.
This has the looks of a game that is going to be weird - and a lot of fun. This still doesn't feel like an ACC conference game, and the health of both quarterbacks being up in the air is a recipe for plenty of fun. Pittsburgh has been a great story with their turnaround this year, but I have a hard time imagining they can keep this up for much longer. Somebody will get them at some point and even fresh off a hard-fought win against Duke, SMU feels like the team.
The Pick: SMU, 38 Pittsburgh, 28
Other Picks
Louisville Cardinals @ (#11) Clemson Tigers -- Louisville has played their ACC competition tight, but been unable to get over the hump. Going on the road to square off with a Clemson team that has been flaming hot since a season-opening loss to Georgia doesn't seem like the game to flip the script.
The Pick: Clemson, 37 Louisville, 24
Florida Gators @ (#2) Georgia Bulldogs -- Georgia isn't exactly decimating the competition in the way we've come to expect under Kirby Smart, but they still look like the much better team in this one, even if D.J. Lagway breathes new life into this Gator offense.
The Pick: Georgia, 31 Florida, 20
Minnesota Golden Gophers @ (#24) Illinois Fighting Illini -- The Golden Gophers have completely flipped their season with a three-game win streak, but there's something about Bret Bielema that P.J. Fleck and company can't crack. This should go down-to-the-wire, but the Illini feel like the smart pick at this point.
The Pick: Illinois, 27 Minnesota, 21
Upset: (#10) Texas A&M Aggies @ South Carolina Gamecocks -- Fresh off their biggest win of the year against an underrated South Carolina team - this feels like a prime upset spot for A&M. The key for the Gamecocks will be doing just enough offensively, with a healthy LaNorris Sellers in the fold.
The Pick: South Carolina, 21 Texas A&M, 17
Double Upset: (#19) Ole Miss Rebels @ Arkansas Razorbacks -- I never quite understood the preseason hype around Ole Miss heading into the year, and the fact they've disappointed doesn't completely shock me. Looking ahead to Georgia next week, I think they get caught on the road by the Razorbacks here.
The Pick: Arkansas, 35 Ole Miss, 30
Lock of the Week: Oregon Ducks (-14) @ Michigan Wolverines -- What once looked like a potential Top 10 matchup now looks like a potential blowout spot. Michigan is good enough defensively to keep this game close into the second half, but their complete lack of a passing game means this one should be a cruising victory for the Ducks.
The Pick: Oregon, 35 Michigan, 14
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