Tuesday, May 23, 2023

2023 NBA Draft Player Profile: Victor Wembanyama

Victor Wembanyama

It seems like every year, there is a new NBA Draft prospect that seems to take the world by storm. In just the past decade, names like Luka Doncic, Zion Williamson, the Ball brothers, and Anthony Edwards have captivated the attention of the basketball public and been high selections in their respective drafts. Yet, not since LeBron James has a single prospect earned as much hype and as much adoration as French big man Victor Wembanyama. The 7'5" 19-year old is widely considered one of the best NBA Draft prospects of all-time, and is a shoe-in to be the No. 1 overall pick in late June. However, the reality is that any player of his age is going to have notable weaknesses to go along with his strengths, and there are no sure things in professional sports. Before we anoint Wembanyama the next LeBron, it's important to take a more measured, realistic view of what to expect from him in the coming years. As much as current sports media is prone to hyperbole, I've tried to take a grounded view in my evaluation of the French forward.


Strengths

Unicorn-esque athletic frame - I'm not sure we've ever seen a prospect built the way Victor Wembanyama is, at least at this stage of his career. The term "unicorn" has become thrown around quite a bit in basketball circles these days, but it's an apt definition for the 19-year old. He measures in at 7'5" with a wingspan projected to be larger than 8 feet long. In fact, Wembanyama is so gigantic that he seemingly towers over another well-regarded French basketball player - Minnesota center Rudy Gobert. Despite this enormous stature, Wembanyama is a smooth athlete with excellent leaping ability. He's surprisingly nimble on his feet and has a high motor; don't expect to see him sitting important minutes because he can't keep up. Simply put, he's the type of basketball player you might create in the latest edition of "NBA 2K", not the type you see in real life.

Diverse, well-rounded offensive game - Wembanyama is your prototypical new age NBA big man. Of course, we haven't seen a player quite like him, but his game encapsulates what the modern NBA is looking for. He's a superb shooter, even if his three-point percentage of 28% during the 2022-23 LNB Pro A season (the highest league in France) leaves bit to be desired. His long arms and high point-of-release allows him to get off the most difficult of shots, even against skilled defenders. And, his athleticism and finishing is reminiscent of some of the game's top rim-runners. But, what really sticks out to me about Wembanyama? As impressive as all the physical attributes are, he's one of the most skilled passing bigs I've ever seen, especially at his age. His assist numbers of 2.4 per game might not wow you, but he has an excellent understanding of how to put his teammates in the best position to score, while limiting bad decisions. Wembanyama is not going to be some black hole offensively; he's the type of player that is going to make everyone around him better offensively. 

Elite rim protection ability - It goes without saying, but a 7'5" player with an eight-foot wingspan is going to be a menace around the rim. Wembanyama is currently averaging three blocks per game in the LNB, and does so despite limiting his fouls. He has a terrific understanding of how to use his body and how to change direction to avoid contact. Even when he doesn't block a shot, Wembanyama impacts everything an offense is trying to do and forces difficult possessions. The way he effects the game defensively can't be put into a stat sheet sometimes, he's just that good. I have little doubt that he will be able to bring that rim protection ability to the NBA and do so on a high level. Teams will likely attack him differently than they currently do in France, but he has the type of frame and overall ability that he should be able to evolve his technique over time and remain effective.

A calm demeanor and impeccable poise - Another thing that has always jumped out to me about Wembanyama is the attitude he has on the basketball court. He's not the type of player who is going to get rattled and sped up, out of his rhythm. No, Wembanyama has a very calm and controlled manner on the court, which seems to rub off on his teammates. This poise and maturity is important, especially once you get to the NBA and are facing a physicality and intensity you've never seen before for nine months out of the year. That's not say that Wembanyama can't turn it on when it's needed, but more so that his composure and calm style of play should set him up for long-term success at the next level.


Weaknesses

Slender, slender build - It's hard to get an accurate measurement of Wembanyama's weight. You will see some outlets reporting him under 200 pounds, while others have him over 230. Either way, you can see when he plays that this is not a physically overpowering basketball player. He relies more on finesse than raw power, which is understandable considering the way his game is built. Yet, I think it's rare to wonder if his frame is going to be ready to hold up over the course of an 82-game NBA season. The physical, rough nature of the NBA is a wake up call to a lot of young big men and those guys aren't going to entering the pros with the hype of Wembanyama. He's going to need to add weight and muscle to his slender frame, which may impact other aspects of his game. Your best hope is that he takes the Giannis Antetokounmpo route, where he's able to add muscle and definition without sacrificing quickness. But, the reality is that such a route isn't an easy one, and Giannis has a much different game than Wembanyama. I'm curious to see how the San Antonio Spurs chose to address this weakness, as it will have major impacts on his long-term future.

Injury concerns? - When you're talking about a frame that we haven't seen before at the NBA level, it's only natural that durability becomes a concern. Players of Wembanyama's stature have a lengthy history of injuries derailing their respective careers, and the Frenchmen already has dealt with ailments. Last June, he missed part of the LNB Pro A postseason due to issues with his psoas muscle in his lower back. The December prior, it was shoulder problems that caused him to miss two months. Then, there's the stress fracture in his fibula the December before that, which caused him to miss three months. It seems fair to be concerned about such a checkered injury history for a 19-year old yet to make his NBA career. One doesn't have to go back far to see how many promising bigs have had their careers altered by injury, and it's only natural to have similar concerns for a 7'5" big with his body composition.

Can he handle the pressure? - It may not be fair to label this as a "weakness" for Wembanyama at this point in his career. From everything we've seen, he's been able to handle the massive hype surrounding him, and has been able to stay a level head amid all the chaos. But, the reality is that the NBA is going to be a whole different animal. Wembanyama is going to face a hype machine of seismic proportions early on in his NBA career, the type of pressure that few 19-year olds have ever faced before. Nobody is able to predict whether a young player such as himself will be able to handle such a spotlight. Now, I do think that San Antonio securing the top overall pick was major win for Wembanyama. This way, he'll be able to go to a "smaller" market and play for an organization with a proven track record with Hall-of-Fame big men. Even so, this type of pressure can crack even the most level-headed players, and social media has added a whole new layer of demands that many past superstar prospects may not have had to deal with.


Ceiling/Floor

Ceiling: Kareem Abdul-Jabaar, with shades of Dirk Nowitzki

How do you come with an accurate ceiling for a prospect like this? It seems unfair to label any young prospect a future Hall-of-Famer, but that certainly feels like it could be in Wembanyama's range if everything goes right. He's that well-rounded, and it feels like he has the type of game that is going to age quite gracefully. I've tried to tamper down the hype and expectations in my analysis of him up to this point, but the reality is that he has an opportunity to be a truly special, one-of-a-kind talent.

Floor: Kristaps Porzingis

Wembanyama actually reminds me quite a bit of Kristaps Porzingis, although I'd argue "Wemby" is a much better athlete than the Latvian. Yet, the two have similar physiques and their ability to space the floor feels almost revolutionary, even in modern day NBA. In many ways, Kristaps has exceed many of the expectations placed on him when he was drafted fourth overall by the Knicks back in 2015. But, it certainly doesn't feel like he has been able to quite reach his ceiling and the unfortunate reality is that he likely never will. A combination of injuries and external factors stalled the development of the promising forward and now he enters free agency at 27 years of age with an unclear future. Could the same thing happen to Wembanyama? I don't think there's any chance he is a complete bust considering, but an average to slightly above-average career could certainly be the range for his floor.


Projection

No. 1 overall to San Antonio Spurs (Latest Mock Draft)

Wednesday, May 17, 2023

Spring Football 2023: 23 Impact True Freshman to Watch This Fall

Cormani McClain, Colorado

The transfer portal and NIL have thrown college football rosters into a constant state of frenzy. The constant state of chaos is making it more difficult for coaches to manage rosters, but also providing opportunities for true freshman. Even if a program makes in a transfer or two, spring practice and fall camp provide plenty of chances for youngsters to show what they can do, and hopefully slide up depth charts. There will be plenty set to make an instant impact this fall but in honor of the upcoming 2023 season, I decided to narrow it down to 23 in particular.


1. Caleb Downs, S, Alabama

The younger brother of former North Carolina star and current Indianapolis Colt Josh Downs, Caleb should have the chance to play right away as a true freshman. Both starting safeties from the 2022 team, DeMarcco Hellams and Jordan Battle, are now in the NFL and Downs saw significant first team reps throughout spring practice. He's earned rave reviews from Nick Saban and former Alabama wide out Christion Jones compared him to Landon Collins, a multiyear Tide contributor who has had a successful pro career.

2. C.J. Baxter, RB, Texas

Bijan Robinson is officially an Atlanta Falcon, leaving a gaping hole in the Texas Longhorn offense. To make things worse his backup, Roschon Johnson, is also now in the pros, meaning the Longhorns are likely to lean on an unproven cast of characters in 2023. Sophomores Jaydon Blue and Jonathon Brooks are likely to get opportunities to show what they can do, but keep an eye on newcomer C.J. Baxter. A fringe five-star recruit, Baxter has all the makings of a workhorse tailback in the collegiate ranks with major upside. He could be a nice change-of-pace in the backfield for a Longhorn offense that is going to want to play fast and furious in 2023. 

3. Cormani McClain, CB, Colorado

There may not be a more talented 1-2 cornerback duo in college football than the pair Deion Sanders brought in to Boulder. Travis Hunter is the established name who may also play both ways this fall, but five-star frosh Cormani McClain is sure to play a key role on the Buffaloes, too. He may need to bulk up his 165-pound frame, but at 6'2" with elite ball skills, McClain has the raw tools to be a difference-maker from Day One. He was previously a cornerstone of Mario Cristobal's 2023 Class at Miami but his decommitment in January was one of the first major wins of the Sanders era.

4. Francis Mauigoa, OT, Miami

After allowing 36 sacks over 12 games in 2022, which ranked 109th nationally, Miami went into the offseason knowing they had work to do along the O-Line. Fortunately Mario Cristobal, who happens to be a former offensive linemen himself, happened to land arguably the top tackle in the Class of 2023 in Francis Mauigoa. The 6'5, 330 pound Samoan from nearby IMG Academy could slide in and start right away at right tackle, although he played primarily left tackle during his final season in the high school ranks.

5. Malachi Coleman, WR, Nebraska

There were a bunch of things that went wrong during the Scott Frost era in Lincoln, but one of the big issues offensively? The lack of a true game-changer at receiver. With the exception of Trey Palmer, who was a revelation during his lone year with the 'Huskers, Nebraska simply has not had a difference-maker that can regularly impact the game on the perimeter. That may be changing, as newcomer Malachi Coleman should provide ample fireworks. The Lincoln native is 6'4" and has a massive catch radius, although his shiftiness makes him a tough cover in the open field. He was a major get for Matt Rhule in his first recruiting class, the type of talent that can help shift the culture of a program.

6. Damian Henderson II, RB, Colorado State

It was a rough debut campaign for Jay Norvell at Colorado State, which was to be expected. Recruiting and talent development had seriously slipped under former head man Steve Addazio, leading to a 3-9 2022. The good news is that Norvell signed one of the highest-rated recruiting classes in program history over the offseason, punctuated by tailback Damian Henderson II. The blazing fast Henderson was a prolific high school player out of Los Alamitos High in California and has the opportunity to make an instant impact. Sure, Avery Morrow, the team's leading rusher from last year is back after rushing for 834 yards, but he doesn't have the position on lock. This was one of the worst rushing offenses in FBS football a year ago, and Henderson's addition should help turn that around.

7. Chris Culliver, WR, North Carolina

Drake Maye is expected to dot Heisman Trophy lists this fall before going on and being a high selection in the 2024 NFL Draft. However, there are significant questions facing the rest of this North Carolina offense. For one, offensive coordinator Phil Longo left for Wisconsin but just as important, the top two receivers are gone. Josh Downs is the major loss, a dynamic weapon who was often Maye's security blanket in 2022. Names like Kobe Paysour and J.J. Jones should step up, but it wouldn't be surprising if the Tar Heels also rely on a true freshman or two, such as Chris Culliver. The 6'3", 175-pounder has the potential to be a real weapon down the field and has fabulous instincts, playing on both sides in high school.

8. Peyton Bowen, S, Oklahoma

After one of the craziest recruitments in recent history, Peyton Bowen is settling in at Oklahoma. He happens to join a deep and experienced safety room, one that includes Billy Bowman, Key Lawrence, and Texas Tech transfer Reggie Pearson. Even with all that talent ahead of him on the depth chart, Bowen may have highest ceiling of them all, and should vie for playing time right away. Even if it isn't at safety, expect Bowen to contribute, as he should also see action on special teams. 

9. Parker Jenkins, RB, Houston

One of the most surprising transfers of the spring session was Houston running back Alton McCaskill IV, who was the AAC Rookie of the Year back in 2021 before a torn ACL caused him to miss this past fall. Although McCaskill didn't take contact this spring, he was in line to reprise his role as feature back before the abrupt transfer decision. Houston responded by adding West Virginia's Tony Mathis Jr., who joins back up with Dana Holgorsen, but this room is still weaker now than it was at the start of the offseason. The opportunity is there for newcomer Parker Jenkins to make an impression, and the all-purpose back should take advantage. A Houston native, Jenkins is a track-and-field star who should be able to bring that speed on to the gridiron in college.

10. Duce Robinson, TE, USC

It's no secret that playing in a Lincoln Riley can be a boon for offensive playmakers, as he secured his third Heisman Trophy winner this past fall. Beyond what it can mean for a quarterback and their stats, Riley does an excellent job utilizing all the weapons available to him. That's good news for USC's collection of pass-catchers, which now includes true freshman Duce Robinson. The 6'6", 225-pounder chose USC over Georgia and others and enters a favorable situation. While Lake McRee may be ahead of him on the depth chart, Robinson's tools will make it difficult to keep him off the field.

11. Jonas Duclona, CB, Wisconsin

It's a new-look Wisconsin program, as Luke Fickell takes over in Madison. For all the talk of the offensive overhaul going on, expect there to also be significant changes defensively. Mike Tressel is likely to play more of a 3-3-5 look than what the Badgers had run in the past, which gives plenty of opportunity to an unproven, but talented, Wisconsin secondary. Expect several true freshmen to see opportunities, but Jonas Duclona is the one I'm watching. The three-sport athlete has the versatility to play just about anywhere on the field and could be used in some unique ways, giving Tressel a Swiss Army knife in the long-term.

12. Brock Taylor, K, Vanderbilt

Following the departure of former Alabama transfer Joseph Bulovas, who exhausted his eligibility, Vanderbilt is in search of a new placekicker. Things got a bit more interesting here after spring, as projected starter Will Faris underwhelmed in the spring game, potentially opening the door for newcomer Brock Taylor. It's a golden opportunity for Taylor, who was ranked as the No. 4 kicker in the Class of 2023. Taylor chose Vanderbilt over offers from Air Force and Tennessee Tech, but he reportedly had interest from a host of big-name programs, including Alabama, Georgia, and Tennessee.

13. Jaden Rashada, QB, Arizona State

Jaden Rashada became a well-known college football name this winter due to the fallout of his botched NIL deal at Florida, eventually resurfacing at Arizona State. No matter your opinion on NIL and what happened in Gainesville, there's no denying that it was a win for ASU, landing a high four-star QB with tremendous arm talent. Now, Rashada enters a Sun Devils quarterback room that includes holdover Trenton Bourguet and Notre Dame transfer Drew Pyne. Both have proven to be serviceable and have experience, but neither have the talent of Rashada. Don't be surprised if he's the guy by the season's end, especially with a new staff in place. 

14. Matayo Uiagalelei, DE, Oregon

D.J. Uiagalelei's transfer to Oregon State this offseason wasn't the only major news for the family in the state of Oregon. His younger brother, five-star edge rusher Matayo, also announced he would be attending school in the state, but at arch-rival Oregon. Don't be surprised if the younger Uiagalelei comes in and sees action right away, namely at the "Jack" end/linebacker position. South Carolina transfer Jordan Burch should see the majority of snaps to begin the year, but the powerful frosh is another guy who may end up being too good to keep off the field.

15. Kelze Howard, DL, Oregon State

While all eyes in the Pac-12 are focused on the likes of USC, Oregon, Washington, and Utah, don't be surprised if Oregon State emerges as a legitimate conference title contender. Jonathan Smith has built a consistent winner in Corvallis, and he continues to bolster the roster with talent. That now includes true freshman Kelze Howard, a disruptive defensive linemen who is the highest-ranked defensive recruit in program history. Howard's relentless nature should make him a force off the edge, and it seems likely he'll see playing time in 2023, even amongst an experienced Beaver defensive line group.

16. Zachariah Branch, WR, USC

Duce Robinson isn't the only newcomer to watch in this Trojan offense, as five-star receiver Zachariah Branch has the talent to terrorize opposing defenses in 2023. Branch, who hails from Las Vegas area powerhouse Bishop Gorman, is a bit of a smaller receiver at 5'10", but his speed and athleticism are elite. But, it's not just the burners that set Branch apart from his counterparts in the Class of 2023; he's a skilled route-runner with soft hands who should be able to acclimate to the college game quickly. With the Trojans replacing several key targets at wide out, most notably Jordan Addison, he's a good bet to make an instant impact.

17. Dante Moore, QB, UCLA

For the first time since his debut campaign in Los Angeles, UCLA head coach Chip Kelly is deciding on a new quarterback. Holdover Ethan Garbers and Kent State transfer Collin Schlee seem to have the early edge in the quarterback battle, but all eyes are on decorated freshman Dante Moore. One of the highest-rated recruits to ever sign with the Bruins, Moore is ranked as the No. 4 overall prospect in the 247Sports Composite. He started varsity during his freshman season in high school and has wowed onlookers with his poise, touch, and playmaking ability. Could Moore start as a freshman once again, this time in college? Schlee may offer experience, but is completely untested in the Power Five ranks, so it feels likely we'll see some of Moore this fall.

18. Luke Hasz, TE, Arkansas

Following the departure of Kendal Briles to TCU, the Arkansas offense is set to undergo a transformation in 2023. New offensive coordinator Dan Enos is set to run a more traditional, pro-style scheme that features heavy two tight end sets. That's great news for true freshman Luke Hasz, as it should allow ample opportunities for the newcomer to make his presence felt. Hasz enrolled early at Arkansas and has impressed throughout spring practice, earning rave reviews from head man Sam Pittman. Per Pittman, Hasz still has to grow as a blocker, but his physical gifts make it likely we will see him early and often in 2023.

19. Pierce Clarkson, QB, Louisville

Jeff Brohm has returned home to his alma mater and is looking to bring his high-flying, aggressive offensive scheme with him. Unfortunately, his first Louisville team has an underwhelming quarterback room, with former Purdue and Cal transfer Jack Plummer as the presumed starter. Plummer does have an existing relationship with Brohm and has played in 29 games over his college career, but hasn't proven to be much more than a mediocre Power Five quarterback. There remains a chance he could be pushed by true frosh Pierce Clarkson, a three-star recruit from California powerhouse St. John Bosco. Clarkson is an untraditional quarterback, but is an athletic signal-caller that puts his team in position to win. He would be a bit different than what Brohm has used in the past, which may add an interesting element to this offense.

20. Jordan Knox, OG, Northwestern

Despite their struggles on the field the last several years, Northwestern has had multiple offensive linemen selected in the first round of the NFL Draft in Rashawn Slater and Peter Skoronski. They're expected to have a solid front once again in 2023, with three starters back in the fold. However, keep an eye on the right guard spot, where sophomore Josh Thompson could be pushed by true freshman Jordan Knox. Knox is the second highest-rated prospect in Northwestern's 2023 Class and despite the fact he played primarily tackle in high school, the expectation is that he will shift inside for college. At 6'3", 310 pounds, he already looks the part, and some feel he has long-term NFL potential.

21. Justice Haynes, RB, Alabama

Every year, a true freshman has a big showing in the spring game that leads to major hype for their debut season. This spring, Alabama tailback Justice Haynes delivered that performance, with three touchdowns in Alabama's "A-Day" spring game. Haynes isn't going to start as a true freshman; Jase McClellan is the clear RB1 entering 2023 and the Tide will also feature veteran Roydell Williams. However, injuries have been an unfortunate reality for Alabama's offense in recent years and given the offense we expect from new OC Tommy Rees, which should be ground-and-pound, Haynes will get action. I get the sense this situation is going to be similar to 2014, where T.J. Yeldon was the feature back but it was clear youngster Derrick Henry was set to overtake him. 

22. Cordale Russell, WR, TCU

After a miraculous run to the National Championship Game this past fall, TCU may be in store for a regression in Year Two under Sonny Dykes. That's not a knock against the program, but more of a reality for a team that is undergoing significant offensive changes. Kendal Briles takes over as the play-caller and Chandler Morris reprises his role as quarterback, but both will have to make do without one of the nation's best in Quentin Johnston. To make matters worse, Jordan Hudson, who looked like a prime breakout candidate, announced his decision to transfer this spring. That should open up doors for newcomers like Cordale Russell, a four-star recruit from Mesquite, Texas. Russell already is built like a seasoned veteran and has sky-high potential, plus a strong showing in the spring has TCU fans buzzing about what he can do in 2023.

23. C.J. Blocker, CB, Utah

Despite Utah's success in 2022, there was little denying that the pass defense struggled for most of the year. At nearly 223 yards allowed per game, they ranked 61st nationally, but had several rough performances that cost the Utes. Those struggles occurred with an NFL talent patrolling the back-end in Clark Phillips III, who is now in the pros. In short, other Utes are going to have to step up and play a larger role, which may include C.J. Blocker. The four-star from Texas committed to Utah over a host of Power Five programs and brings elite athleticism, even if he's a bit undersized for the P5 level at the moment. Considering Utah's 2023 schedule includes road tilts against both Washington and USC, they'll need Blocker and the rest of this secondary to grow up quickly and make some plays on the back-end. 

Thursday, May 11, 2023

NBA Mock Draft 2023: Edition 1

 

Victor Wembanyama to Detroit

1. Detroit Pistons

Victor Wembanyama, F, France

At its core, the 2023 NBA Draft is the Victor Wembanyama sweepstakes. The French forward is one of the most hyped NBA Draft prospects in recent memory, a 19-year old with otherworldly athletic traits. At 7'3" with an eight-foot wingspan, Wembanyama towers over opponents, but his crafty offensive game and smooth jumper are reminiscent of a bygone era in NBA basketball. The Pistons have a chance to add a generational prospect to a solid core that already includes Cade Cunningham and Jalen Duren.

2. Houston Rockets

Brandon Miller, F, Alabama

The intrigue in the 2023 NBA Draft begins at pick No. 2, where G League star Scoot Henderson and Alabama forward Brandon Miller are jockeying for position. For all the controversy surrounding Miller off the court, he was the best freshman in the country this winter and has tools that NBA scouts adore. With the ability to play and defend multiple positions, Houston can plug him into the rotation and continue building around him and Jalen Green.

3. San Antonio Spurs

Scoot Henderson, G, G League Ignite

Queue the Russell Westbrook comparisons, folks. Scoot Henderson is a ferocious combo guard who plays with the intensity and motor of the former MVP, although he still has plenty in his game to smooth out. The shooting mechanics have been a problem for Henderson in the past, but he's seemed to make strides in that area, and if he can clean up his shot selection, the sky is the limit.

4. Charlotte Hornets

Amen Thompson, G, Overtime Elite

The Thompson twins, Amen and Ausar, are prime examples of how difficult it is to project talent in the modern basketball landscape. How do you accurately judge two players with jaw-dropping athleticism and impressive raw physical gifts who play in a league plenty of casual fans haven't heard of? Even so, the pair of them are likely to land somewhere in the Top 10, and Amen commands attention as a playmaking, high energy guard.

5. Portland Trail Blazers

Ausar Thompson, G/F, Overtime Elite

Ausar is projected to go below his twin brother, somewhere in the 5-10 range, but still offers plenty of upside. As a wing, Ausar has the potential to be a relentless perimeter defender and two-way force, although his offensive game still has a ways to go. He could fit into a nice role on a Portland team in transition and grow quickly if given an adequate amount of minutes.

6. Orlando Magic

Gradey Dick, G/F, Kansas

There feels like there's a slight drop-off between the first five and the rest of the lottery, although I remain a huge fan of Gradey Dick. He proved he could handle the scoring load during his lone season at Kansas, although it wouldn't surprise me if he slides into more of a complementary role at the next level. Dick has a smooth jumper and well-rounded offensive game and at 6'8", his size is an ideal fit for the modern NBA.

7. Indiana Pacers

Cam Whitmore, F, Villanova

We didn't get to see as much of Cam Whitmore as originally hoped due to a thumb injury that sidelined for a decent chunk of the year, but the Villanova product was still impressive enough to earn Big East Freshman of the Year. He projects as a lottery selection with plus size and a lot of offensive upside, and he seemed to really find his stroke late in the year.

8. Washington Wizards

Nick Smith, G, Arkansas

Not since prime John Wall have the Wizards has a dynamic lead guard quite like Nick Smith. The former five-star prospect did miss most of the collegiate season with injury, but has gained a reputation as an explosive ball-handler and elite playmaker. Now, he will have to add some weight for the next level and improve the decision-making, but this is the type of player Washington has been looking to pair with Bradley Beal for some time now.

9. Utah Jazz

Jarace Walker, F, Houston

Houston's Jarace Walker feels a bit old-school with the way he plays, but he the versatile forward has the perfect skillset for the modern game. At 6'8" with a 7'2" wingspan, he can play either forward spot and is a pain on defense. Although not the quickest or most athletic player, Walker has enough offensively to become a reliable scorer in the NBA.

10. Dallas Mavericks

Anthony Black, G, Arkansas

Anthony Black took advantage of injuries to Nick Smith to put together a stellar season for Arkansas, playing himself into lottery position. He's a well-built lead guard who may be the best passer in this Draft, but the other parts of his game are a major work-in-progress. Even so, he could still fetch early minutes for a Mavericks team in transition after their late-season collapse.

11. Orlando Magic

Rayan Rupert, G/F, France

Rayan Rupert, a French guard who plays for the New Zealand Breakers, is among the most intriguing players in this Draft. He's 6'7" with a 7'2" wingspan and is an absolute pest on the defensive end, but he's another guy that has a lot to round out in terms of his offensive game. He feels worth the risk for the Magic, who are stocked to the brim with young talent and draft picks. 

12. Oklahoma City Thunder

Keyonte George, G/F, Baylor

Aside from Brandon Miller, Baylor's Keyonte George was the most consistent true freshman in the nation this winter. George proved to be an incredibly reliable shooter who would take and make tough shots, and also proved to be a solid defender and quality rebounder. There's some question whether he's undersized for the two-guard spot in the pros, but he's well worth a late lottery pick.

13. Toronto Raptors

Taylor Hendricks, F, UCF

Toronto desperately needs a jolt of energy to resurrect a franchise that has become lifeless in the post-Kawhi Leonard era. Enter Taylor Hendricks, a bouncy forward who sets the tone defensively and has a solid offensive game. I've seen Hendricks compared to Minnesota's Jaden McDaniels, which feels like an apt example.

14. New Orleans Pelicans

Jordan Hawkins, G, UConn

No NBA Draft prospect improved their stock this NCAA Tournament quite like Jordan Hawkins, who was a key figure in UConn's dominant run. The 6'5" guard proved to be a relentless shot-maker with fearless range, and there's defensive potential here, too. He could help open up a New Orleans offense that needs more playmakers.

15. Atlanta Hawks

Jalen Hood-Schifino, G, Indiana

An explosive off-guard with good size and a high motor, Jalen Hood-Schifino checks plenty of boxes as an NBA Draft prospect. He was terrifyingly inconsistent during his lone season in Bloomington, but that's to be expected of a true freshman seeing heavy minutes and there's no doubting his talent. He would be an interesting addition alongside Trae Young in the Hawk backcourt.

16. Utah Jazz

Cason Wallace, G, Kentucky

The Jazz are loaded with Draft selections over the next several years, thanks in large part to the Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell trades. They can afford to take a few chances, and Cason Wallace is a high-risk, high-reward player. Wallace did show real growth over the course of the season for Kentucky and is a solid spot-up shooter, but his lack of quickness and inconsistent defense makes him a mid-first rounder.

17. Los Angeles Lakers

Kobe Bufkin, G, Michigan

Although he didn't enter the season as much of an NBA prospect, Kobe Bufkin's play over the course of the 2022-23 campaign may end up making him a lottery selection. He offers plenty of potential as a two-way player and his improved three-point shooting makes him valuable. Los Angeles could certainly add another shooter or two, especially looking ahead towards free agency.

18. Miami Heat

G.G. Jackson, G/F, South Carolina

Few organizations squeeze as much out of their draft selections as the Miami Heat, and they're a team that should be willing to take a swing on a high-upside prospect here. G.G. Jackson is among the youngest players in this Draft after reclassifying and had an up-and-down year with South Carolina, but he oozes potential.

19. Golden State Warriors

Dereck Lively II, F/C, Duke

Derek Lively's lone season in Durham was extremely unimpressive, but the Blue Devil big still has a good chance to land somewhere in the first round of the 2023 NBA Draft. At 7'1", 230 pounds, he's already a force to be reckoned with, and there's hope his offensive game could round out. Who knows, perhaps he could end up being what Golden State hoped they were getting when they drafted James Wiseman second overall in 2020.

20. Houston Rockets

Jett Howard, G, Michigan

Houston snagged Brandon Miller to lead their frontcourt, now it's time to add another dynamic backcourt piece in Michigan's Jett Howard. The son of head coach Juwan, Jett has shown to be a good shooter who can handle the offensive load. I'm not sure if the ceiling is as high as other guards in this Draft, but he offers plenty of value at this spot.

21. Brooklyn Nets

Maxwell Lewis, G/F, Pepperdine

Don't look now, but the West Coast Conference is producing some quality NBA prospects, and it's not just at Gonzaga. Maxwell Lewis from Pepperdine appears to be the next in line, a well-rounded wing with serious "3-and-D" potential. As a deadeye shooter with ideal size, don't be surprised if Lewis is a guy that rises quickly as the pre-Draft process unfolds.

22. Brooklyn Nets

Jalen Wilson, F, Kansas

After using their selection acquired in the Kevin Durant deal on Maxwell Lewis, Brooklyn adds another immediate contributor in Jalen Wilson. Wilson was one of the breakout stars of the 2022-23 season and has shown real growth since coming out of high school. He could be the ideal isolation scorer for the NBA, and could play either forward spot.

23. Portland Trail Blazers

Kris Murray, G/F, Iowa

After his older brother, Keegan, earned NBA All-Rookie First Team Honors, Kris Murray appears set to make his own jump to the pros. Kris has a similar game to his older brother, although it feels like he can open things up a bit more with his long-range capabilities. He doesn't have the upside of Portland's earlier selection, Ausar Thompson, but shouldn't bust either.

24. Sacramento Kings

Leonard Miller, G/F, G League Ignite

How does Sacramento keep the momentum going after finally ending their postseason drought? Adding a high-upside piece like Leonard Miller, who can play multiple positions, seems to make sense. Miller has been impressive during his time in the G League and has serious offensive upside in the long-term.

25. Memphis Grizzlies

Bilal Coulibaly, G/F, France

Memphis appears ready to move on from Dillon Brooks after a postseason full of antics, and they could replace his production with an intriguing prospect in Bilal Coulibaly. Opinion on the 18-year old French wing seems pretty split, but one thing is clear: he's an elite defender, and he has plenty of room for growth in other areas of his game.

26. Indiana Pacers

Julian Strawther, G, Gonzaga

The Pacers have an opportunity to add one of the best pure scorers in this Draft in Gonzaga's Julian Strawther. The 6'7" off-guard has proven he can take over games with his shooting touch, but he'll have to develop more consistency if he wants to become a regular NBA contributor. 

27. Charlotte Hornets

Noah Clowney, F, Alabama

Brandon Miller received most of the attention this past season in the Alabama frontcourt, but his teammate Noah Clowney still has a chance to land somewhere in the first round. Clowney isn't going to take over games with his offense, but he can space the floor and rebound the ball. Defensively, he does an excellent job protecting the rim without fouling.

28. Utah Jazz

Dariq Whitehead, F, Duke

Dariq Whitehead is another guy who has loads of potential but just as much questions, which is what makes the NBA Draft so difficult. He was a highly prized recruit coming into Duke but dealt with injuries and had a tough time adjusting to the speed of the collegiate game. Even so, you see the offensive upside and at 6'9" with great lateral quickness, he should be a plus defender.

29. Indiana Pacers

Trayce Jackson-Davis, F, Indiana

One of the greatest players to ever put on an Indiana Hoosier jersey, it only feels right that Trayce Jackson-Davis stays within the state with the Pacers. He may be a bit undersized for his position at the NBA level, but it's rare to see a player who has as developed of an offensive game as he does coming out of college. At 23, his age is going to be a negative, but I think Jackson-Davis has a chance to be a solid pro.

30. Los Angeles Clippers

Terquavion Smith, G, NC State

Terquavion Smith has a good chance to be the first NC State guard selected in the NBA Draft since Dennis Smith Jr. back in 2017. Smith was the heart-and-soul of this Wolfpack team this winter and has perfect size to play in the NBA, although with his playmaking comes a whole lot of turnovers. The Clippers could use an extra spark in this backcourt and Smith fits the mold. 

Saturday, May 6, 2023

Spring Football 2023: 10 Players Poised For the Big Sophomore Leap

Conner Weigman, Texas A&M

Players are contributing earlier in their collegiate careers than ever before, but for many their breakout campaigns come their second season on campus. Many sophomores and redshirt freshmen take advantage of a full offseason within the program to accelerate their development, and often see more opportunities to take their presence felt as upperclassmen move on. With that in mind, it's time to unveil my annual, "10 Player Poised for the Big Sophomore Leap" which has become one of my favorite articles to write each and every year. I love the idea of betting on a young player who may be unheard of by the broader college football community and seeing if they can pan out. There have been plenty that have (ahem, Ja'Marr Chase & Rashod Bateman) and plenty that haven't, but what's the offseason without some reckless speculation? These 10 are the second-year players I'm keeping a particularly close eye on in 2023.


Dane Key, WR, Kentucky

(2022 Stats: 37 receptions, 519 yards, 6 TD)

A four-star prospect who stayed in Lexington to play for his hometown Kentucky Wildcats, Dane Key was a revelation in 2022. He acclimated quickly to the Wildcat offense and was arguably their most consistent wide out from start-to-finish, finishing just behind fellow freshman Barion Brown in receptions and yards. Key's production was good enough to make him an Honorable Mention on the Freshman All-American team, but I suspect he's just scratching the surface of what he can be in the collegiate ranks. What you'll notice about him is the fluidity he plays with; he's a natural receiver with elite ball skills that makes everything look easy. Barion Brown may garner more attention with his athleticism, but Key's reliability makes him a good bet to contribute each and every week. Fortunately for him, I also think the Kentucky offense will be better catered to fit his skillset in 2023. It's no secret departed QB Will Levis was playing hurt for a major chunk of last fall, and NC State transfer Devin Leary may end up being an upgrade. More importantly, Liam Coen is back to reprise his old role as offensive coordinator after a one-year pit stop with the Los Angeles Rams. Coen has been more willing to take shots down the field and open up this offense, which should provide Key plenty of opportunities.

Marvin Jones Jr., LB, Georgia

(2022 Stats: 4 tackles, 1 sack)

Another spring, another wave of Georgia Bulldogs off to the NFL. As the Bulldogs begin their quest for a third straight National Title, they'll have to replace a big chunk of their defense. Fortunately, Kirby Smart's relentless effort on the recruiting trail means there's a collection of blue-chippers ready to step into leading roles. Among them is former five-star Marvin Jones Jr., a talented edge rusher from the state of Florida. Jones Jr. played sparingly as a freshman in 2022, seeing most of his action on special teams, but the ceiling is high for the youngster. He's always been a force off the edge, but rumor out of Athens is that he's added he's continuing to grow and adding even more weight to his frame. I think he has a legitimate chance to vie for a starting job this fall, most likely at the "Jack" position, where's competing primarily with junior Chaz Cambliss and sophomore Darris Smith. Jones Jr. did miss spring practice after recovering from shoulder surgery, which may impact his chances to start right away, but his ceiling feels unlimited with UGA's track record of producing edge rushers.

Xavier Nwankpa, S, Iowa

(2022 Stats: 12 tackles, 1 interception)

For as terrible as the Iowa offense was in 2022, the Hawkeye defense continues to be among the most consistent units in the country. Defensive coordinator Phil Parker continues to churn out elite defenses and in turn, NFL Draft selections. In fact, Iowa sent several defenders to the NFL this past week, including two in the secondary in Riley Moss and Kaevon Merriweather. Even so, the secondary may end up being even better in 2023, thanks to rising stars Cooper DeJean and Xavier Nwankpa. DeJean has already established himself as an All-Big Ten talent, but it's Nwankpa I'm keeping a close eye on into fall. He was one of the highest-rated recruits in program history in the Class of 2022 and flashed plenty of playmaking potential as a true freshman. Nwankpa's performance in the bowl game feels like a sign of things to come, as he notched eight tackles and returned an interception to the house. Granted, it was a game full of backups, but Nwankap's closing speed and incredible instincts feel like the perfect combination for a star safety. I firmly expect him to handle starting strong safety duties this fall and it feels likely the Hawkeyes will play him all over the field.

Ollie Gordon, RB, Oklahoma State

(2022 Stats: 62 carries, 308 rushing yards, 4 total TD)

It's been a turbulent offseason in Stillwater as the Cowboys gear up for Mike Gundy's 19th season in charge. Oklahoma State has been hit harder than most by the transfer portal and look towards the fall with serious questions on both sides of the ball. If there is a reason for Cowboy fans to tune in this year, it resides in the backfield in sophomore Ollie Gordon. Gordon seems primed for a special season for a number of reasons. First, he appears to be the clear favorite to be feature back, with veteran transfer Elijah Collins coming in from Michigan State to play more of a support role. Secondly, the Cowboy passing game could be the worst of the Gundy era, with former Texas Tech and Michigan transfer Alan Bowman an extremely underwhelming projected starter under center. Finally, this is a program that doesn't receive as much credit as they should for the quality backs they produce. From Kendall Hunter and Joseph Randle to Chuba Hubbard, Oklahoma State has a proven track record of quality tailbacks. Gordon certainly feels next in line and it wouldn't surprise me at all if he runs wild in 2023.

Eli Raridon, TE, Notre Dame

(2022 Stats: None)

One of the most underrated position battles set to take place over the offseason and into fall camp is at Notre Dame. With Michael Mayer off to the NFL, it's an open competition to see who will take over at a position that has been an NFL factory. Junior Mitchell Evans is the veteran in the room, but hasn't seen a lot of snaps himself, while youngster Holden Staes also reportedly flashed in spring camp. Yet, the most talented player in the room is Eli Raridon, who played in five games in 2022 before a torn ACL ended his season prematurely. I'm going out on a limb picking a player coming off such a serious knee injury on this list, especially considering he didn't record a catch last year, but Raridon is too intriguing to ignore. He's a 6'6" specimen who has significant upside as a pass-catcher, but has already proven himself as the best blocker of the three. Rumor is that his recovery is going well and he's on track to return for the start of 2023, although it's likely he'll need time to catch up to the reps of Evans and Staes. Even so, the upside here makes Raridon an excellent choice.

Conner Weigman, QB, Texas A&M

(2022 Stats: 73-132, 896 yards, 8 TD, 0 INT)

There are no sure things in college football, but a list such as this would feel incomplete without including Texas A&M's Conner Weigman. Rated as the No. 2 quarterback in the Class of 2022, Weigman entered last season buried on the depth chart behind Max Johnson and Haynes King. However, the Aggies choose to take a chance on the true frosh late in the year during a lost campaign and he looked the part, throwing for 896 yards and eight touchdowns. Included in that was a 338-yard, four touchdown performance against Ole Miss, and a win over sixth-ranked LSU to finish off the regular season. He looks to be the undisputed starter entering 2023, and has several things working in favor of a breakout. Weigman has the opportunity to throw to one of the best young receivers in college football in Evan Stewart but more importantly, he'll be operating in a new-look A&M offense. Jimbo Fisher is finally set to relinquish play-calling duties and brought on Bobby Petrino as offensive coordinator, the beginning of a new era in College Station. Petrino has a long track record of producing elite quarterbacks and should have fun uncovering Weigman's vast potential.

Jordan Hudson, WR, TBD

(2022 Stats: 14 receptions, 174 yards, 3 TD)

I don't typically include players not currently on a roster on this list, but Jordan Hudson feels like a worthy exception. A one-time SMU commit who followed Sonny Dykes to TCU, Hudson flashed significant potential on the National Runner-Up Horned Frogs. He looked in line for a breakout 2023 with Quentin Johnston, Derius Davis, and Taye Barber all moving on, but instead was a surprising entrant into the spring transfer portal. Hudson has yet to announce his next destination, but the favorite right now is none other than SMU. He would be a terror in that offense, which plays wide-open and has a bunch of former Power Five playmakers defenses will have to key in on. Even if it is somewhere else, Hudson can line up just about anywhere and has the gamebreaking speed to make a major impact.

Wade Woodaz, LB, Clemson

(2022 Stats: 20 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 5.5 TFL)

Losing a host of players to the NFL has become an annual tradition at Clemson, who sent several key contributors off to the league a week ago. Among them was Trenton Simpson, a rock-solid linebacker who went in the third round to Baltimore. Simpson's absence opens up an opportunity for sophomore Wade Woodaz, who flashed plenty of potential a season ago. Woodaz played in all 14 games and posted solid numbers as a rotational piece, with 20 tackles and 5.5 tackles for loss. He looks like an early favorite to start at outside linebacker, but could play all over the field and fill with any number of roles with his versatility. At 6'3", 215 pounds, it wouldn't be surprising to see him get reps at safety either, which could end up being more of a need position for Clemson in 2023. Woodaz reminds me a lot of former Tiger defender Tanner Muse, who had the frame to play either linebacker or safety, and put together a productive career at Clemson. Although, Woodaz seems to have a much higher ceiling than Muse, which could all start with a breakout 2023 campaign.

Squirrel White, WR, Tennessee

(2022 Stats: 30 receptions, 481 yards, 2 TD)

Marquarius "Squirrel" White not only has one of the best nicknames in college football, the sophomore has serious game. An early enrollee in January 2022, it looked unlikely White was going to see significant reps as a true freshman with the experience in front of him on the depth chart, but he still found ways to make an impact. He finished with 30 catches for 481 yards, but it was the bowl victory that seemed to given an indication of his bright future, as White caught nine balls for 108 yards against a veteran Clemson secondary. Now, with Cedric Tillman and Jalin Hyatt both off to the NFL, White has a good chance to emerge as the No. 2 option in this explosive Volunteer offense, behind only Bru McCoy. McCoy is a traditional top receiver, but at 5'10", 160 pounds, White's size and shiftiness makes him a real wild card as a second option. I'll be interested to see if he does put on any more weight this offseason to last through increased usage in the SEC, but you always wonder how that will impact speed, which is White's most tantalizing skill.

Jacolby Spells, CB, West Virginia

(2022 Stats: 13 tackles, 1 interception)

West Virginia' underwhelming offense received most of the attention during a disappointing 2022 season, but the defense was nothing to ride home about, either. In fact, the pass defense was dead last in the Big 12 a season ago and will need to make major strides if the Mountaineers want to make a bowl game this fall. All eyes will be at the two cornerback spots, where the trio of Andrew Wilson-Lamp, Montre Miller, and Jacolby Spells will be battling for two starting jobs. Miller, a Kent State transfer, and Wilson-Lamp bring plenty in the experience department, but it's hard to imagine West Virginia keeping a talent like Jacolby Spells off the field. He's a freakish athlete who saw a healthy dosage of action as a true freshman, playing in nine contests, but can be so much more. What really intrigues me about Spells is the quick feet and ball skills, two traits that could evolve him into an interception machine on the back-end. He was a former receiver early on in his high school career and it shows, but will need refinement in his technique to reach his full potential.