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| Jordan James, Oregon |
Upsets: 5-10
Supderdogs: 7-4
Big Ten Championship Game: (#3) Penn State Nittany Lions @ (#1) Oregon Ducks (Indianapolis)
Line: Oregon -3.5
O/U: 50.5
In a college football season defined primarily by parity at the top, Oregon has been one of the few constants as the final remaining undefeated team in college football. As they look to secure the top overall seed in the College Football Playoff and win a Big Ten title in their first year in the league, it's the one-loss Penn State Nittany Lions who stand in their way.
Statistically, Oregon's offense hasn't quite played at the level of the 2023 group, but it's been remarkably consistent. Aside from their season opener against Idaho and16-point outing against Wisconsin, two games the Ducks still managed to win, this group has scored 31 points or more in every single outing this fall. Quarterback Dillon Gabriel dealt with turnover problems early on, but he's been near perfect since Oregon's massive win over Ohio State, with just three interceptions in that span. Surrounding him is a fun cast of characters, with Tez Johnson, Evan Stewart, and Traeshon Holden putting pressure on opposing defenses on the perimeter, and tailbacks Jordan James and Noah Whittington pounding underneath. The ability of James to pound the ball between the tackles opens up this entire unit, and the versatility of the receiver corps is a real problem for opposing defenses. Johnson is a problem with what he can do after the catch, and Stewart's ability to win 50/50 balls gives Gabriel quite an out when he's under pressure. Tight end Terrance Ferguson should also get some love, an underrated piece of the puzzle who has played out in some of Oregon's most crucial games this year. All in all, it's quite the challenge for Tom Allen and a Penn State defense that has had an incredible year themselves. The Nittany Lions have more than enough up front to make Oregon work for every yard, but I am concerned about this secondary holding up over the course of four quarters. Either way, it should be a really fun matchup to watch, and I'm zoning in on one position battle in particular: Abdul Carter vs. this Duck O-Line. There's a good chance we see potential first-rounders battling it out in Carter going up against tackle Josh Conerly Jr.
Andy Kotelnicki has been a superb hire by James Franklin in running this Penn State offense, but now comes his most important test. The Nittany Lions have opened things up this fall, and Kotelnicki has become quite the tactician with this group, running some of the most interesting formations and shifts you'll see in college football. The result has been a unit that averages 33.3 points per game, with a real mix of the run and the pass. However, one game has overshadowed the success of this group: a 13-point showing in a loss to Ohio State, in which the Nittany Lions managed just 270 yards per game and zero offensive touchdowns. This is a program looking to shed their reputation of not showing up in the most important games, and that pressure falls squarely on the offense, namely Kotelnicki and quarterback Drew Allar. Allar has continued to develop in his second full season as starter, and has shown an excellent command of this offense. But is he ready to lead Penn State to victory against this fierce Duck defense? There are weapons to help out, namely do-it-all tight end Tyler Warren, the dynamic duo of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, and a solid receiver corps. But it really feels like it's going to be Allar who is going to make all the difference. Taking care of the ball is one thing, but I do feel like the Nittany Lions are going to have to take some shots to keep the Ducks on their toes. The way Penn State has won against other Big Ten teams, where they have relied on their physicality to outlast foes, it just won't work here. Oregon has the athletes and depth on the defensive side of the ball - it will be fascinating to see what Kotelnicki comes up with.
It's so hard to go undefeated in the modern era of college football just in the regular season, but winning 13 games, including a conference championship game? Oregon is certainly going to have to work hard for this one, but they still like the smarter pick. We haven't seen Penn State win these types of games regularly under James Franklin. That doesn't mean they can't, they certainly have the talent on this roster. But, until we see it, I'm picking the Ducks to win.
The Pick: Oregon, 35 Penn State, 24
SEC Championship Game: (#5) Georgia Bulldogs @ (#2) Texas Longhorns (Atlanta)
Line: Texas -2.5
O/U: 49.5
It will be a rematch in the SEC Championship Game, as the second-ranked Texas Longhorns are out for vengeance against the Georgia Bulldogs. The Bulldogs won in a fierce battle between these two in mid-October 30-15, but went on to drop a game to Ole Miss two weeks later, and needed eight overtimes to outlast Georgia Tech last weekend. Needless to say, they have to feel like they have something to prove as they battle for a first-round bye in the College Football Playoff.
It's become apparent that the Georgia offense has taken a step back after the dominance of the 2023 unit, which actually shouldn't come as a major surprise. Although quarterback Carson Beck is back, his top two targets from last year, tight end Brock Bowers and wide out Ladd McConkey, are both making waves in the NFL. Additionally, the Bulldogs have dealt with a rash of injuries to both their backfield and offensive line, really crippling what this offense can do on any given Saturday. Without as much help around him, it's felt like Beck is pressing in a way that he simply didn't last fall, resulting in some truly head-scratching throws and 12 interceptions. Beck has cleaned it up in recent weeks and seems to be coming into this game riding high, but we'll have to see what his supporting cast is up for. Tailback Nate Frazier has put together a superb freshman campaign, but a healthy Trevor Etienne would make this team significantly more imposing. There seems to be a real chance Etienne returns after missing the last three games with a rib injury, but you do have to wonder how much Georgia will run him, versus saving his legs for the upcoming Playoff. Another player who also could ready to suit up after a prolonged absence is Colbie Young, who has been practicing with the Bulldogs this past week. Young has not played since October due to legal issues off-the-field, but a potential return would be huge for this Georgia passing attack and offense as a whole. It still feels like we won't see much of Young for this one, if at all, but Georgia desperately needs others to emerge in this receiver corps. Texas features an elite defense, but their strength lies in their front seven, not on the back-end. If the Bulldogs can figure out a way to test them vertically, this becomes an entirely different ball game.
Last week, the "Lone Star Showdown" between Texas and Texas A&M returned, a rivalry that decided who would be playing in this SEC Championship Game. The Aggies were supposed to be a challenge for the Longhorns but even though the score finished 17-7, the game was never in doubt. Texas completely shut down the Aggies and pushed them around for most of the sixty minutes, quite the statement from a program looking to win the SEC in their first year in the conference. The Longhorns will look to continue that momentum, but you have to figure they might need more in this game than 17 points. Quarterback Quinn Ewers has had another week of rest as he mends his ankle after spraining it in the Kentucky game. Him being 100 percent is huge for this offense, a quarterback who seems to elevate his play in their most important moments. With that being said, Arch Manning has come on and showed quite impressive scrambling ability, and you get the feeling we may see more of him down the stretch this season. There have been some growing pains for this supporting cast, but the good news for the Longhorns is that their ground game seems to be finishing strong, and they have just enough at receiver to give a team like Georgia troubles. I don't expect Texas to be overly aggressive in attacking this Georgia defense, at least not early on. They'll look to lean on the rushing attack, and likely make this a low-scoring affair built on field position. Of course, that will hinge on the Longhorn offensive line playing a better game than they did last time against Georgia, when Mykel Williams and Jalon Walker tortured them the entire night. This is a unit full of future NFL offensive linemen, including likely high first-rounders in Kelvin Banks Jr. and Cameron Williams - I think they'll find a way to be up for this game.
This Georgia team remains one of the most unpredictable and volatile teams at the top of the rankings. There's never any shortage of talent here and when it all comes together, this still has the looks of a team that can win a National Title. But, they've been so inconsistent that it's hard for me to pick them in any big game at this point. We have a much clearer idea of who Texas is at this point and what they need to do to come out on top. And who knows, perhaps the earlier defeat to the Bulldogs provides the extra motivation they need to come out victorious.
The Pick: Texas, 24 Georgia, 21
Other Picks
ACC Championship Game: (#17) Clemson Tigers @ (#8) SMU Mustangs (Charlotte) -- A heart-breaking loss to rival South Carolina last weekend has to have Clemson fuming. I like their chances to stymy this SMU offense with their D-Line, while Cade Klubnik's dual-threat ability puts them over the top on the other side of the ball.
The Pick: Clemson, 34 SMU, 21
Big 12 Championship Game: (#16) Iowa State Cyclones @ (#15) Arizona State Sun Devils (Arlington) -- Everything in the Big 12 is a toss up, including this championship game. Arizona State has been on fire over the last several weeks, but the absence of receiver Jordan Tyson is significant - I think the Cyclones win in an ugly game.
The Pick: Iowa State, 20 Arizona State, 14
American Athletic Conference Championship Game: Tulane Green Wave @ (#24) Army Black Knights -- A loss on Thanksgiving to Memphis effectively knocked Tulane out of Playoff consideration, so I figure they'll be fired up for this game. Even in a true road test, they're the better team top-to-bottom, and have more than enough to shut down the triple-option.
The Pick: Tulane, 28 Army, 16
Conference USA Championship Game: Western Kentucky Hilltoppers @ Jacksonville State Gamecocks -- Underrated game here, compared to the rest of the games on the championship docket, as this should be a fun, potentially high-scoring game. The Hilltoppers will throw it all over, but I like Jacksonville State's balance, and they are at home.
The Pick: Jacksonville State, 35 Western Kentucky, 27
MAC Championship Game: Ohio Bobcats @ Miami (Ohio) Redhawks (Detroit) -- These two are red hot, with Ohio coming in as winners of five straight and the Redhawks winners of seven straight. Ohio can move the ball on the ground in a hurry, but I'm not sure they have an answer for Brett Gabbert defensively.
The Pick: Miami (Ohio), 30 Ohio State, 21
Mountain West Championship Game: (#20) UNLV Rebels @ (#10) Boise State Broncos -- What's better than a Mountain West Championship Game with Playoff implications on a Friday night? Ashton Jeanty against this UNLV defense, namely hard-nosed linebacker Jackson Woodard will be a treat.
The Pick: Boise State, 31 UNLV, 28
Sun Belt Championship Game: Marshall Thundering Herd @ Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns -- Louisiana is the better team between these two and when you consider Marshall head coach Charles Huff is openly flirting with the Southern Miss job, I wonder how up for this game the Herd will be.
The Pick: Louisiana, 27 Marshall, 17
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