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| Marcel Reed, Texas A&M |
Current Picks Record: 52-38
Upset: 3-8
Superdogs: 5-3
Locks: 5-6
(#7) BYU Cougars @ (#8) Texas Tech Red Raiders
Line: Texas Tech -10.5
O/U: 52.5
It's the most important game of the year for the Big 12 this weekend, with the undefeated BYU Cougars traveling to Lubbock to take on a Red Raider team with just one loss to their credit. The winner not only sets themselves up as the clear favorite in the league, but positions themselves on the inside track to their first-ever College Football Playoff appearance.
Even without star tailback Tajh Brooks, who graduated over the offseason, the Texas Tech offenses has not skipped a beat in 2025. They've averaging nearly 44 points per contest, riding a balanced and productive unit to success. At the heart of it is veteran quarterback Behren Morton, who appears fully healthy again after suffering through an injury-plagued October. Injuries have been an unfortunate theme throughout much of Morton's career, but he's arguably the best in the Big 12 when healthy. His health will be extra important down the stretch, as the Red Raiders lost high-quality backup Will Hammond for the season. Morton looked good in his return against Kansas State, and it does help that the rest of this offense is full of playmakers. Cameron Dickey and Ja'Koby Williams have more than made up for the absence of Brooks on the season in this backfield, while the pass-catchers include five different players who have all eclipsed 300 yards. It's not even just the explosiveness or speed you'll notice with this Texas Tech offense, either. They have worked hard to build up the lines of scrimmage through the portal, and it's become a very physical, hard-nosed football team. Against a BYU defense that has long been known for it's physicality, this has the looks of a really feisty, hard-hitting contest. This Cougar defense has been the epitome of bend-not-break this season, letting up tons of yardage, but making plays when it matters most. Texas Tech may be the best offense they've seen yet, which sets up quite the challenge.
It's amazing in many different ways that BYU has reached the month of November with a perfect record, but the offensive success may be the most surprising. This is a group that lost their starting quarterback, Jake Retzlaff, when he was kicked off the team and transferred to Tulane mere weeks before the season. Bear Bachmeier, with no experience, has stepped in and put together a magical season. Bachmeier isn't a player who is going to step back and zip it all over the field to the tune of 300 yards. But, he's a truly gritty quarterback who does enough to put his team in position to win. He's particularly dangerous with his legs, with 408 yards and nine touchdowns on the ground to this point. Texas Tech did shut down dual-threat Devon Dampier in their game against Utah earlier in the year, but Bachmeier's a bit of a different runner. He may not have Dampier's speed or athleticism, but he's a real slippery runner that will demand attention all game long from the Red Raiders. Bachmeier is flanked by a real capable tailback in ultra-reliable L.J. Martin, with the pair combining for one of the best rush offenses in the conference. It is shaping up to be quite the battle between this BYU rushing offense and Texas Tech's front seven. I'll be the first to admit, I was skeptical the Red Raiders and their money was going to be enough, but they've completely changed the tenor of this defensive front. This a relentless front seven that is as disciplined as you'll find in college football today. They're going to force Bachmeier into tighter windows and tougher decisions than he's had to make for much of the season, and it's on the road. We may still see the Bachmeier magic, but there's going to have to be even more than usual in this one.
BYU has been an awesome story, but it's not unfair to say they likely should have multiple losses. It's not complete luck, this team has performed when it has mattered most, but someone is going to catch them. Texas Tech is the best team, top-to-bottom in the conference, and I think they have more than enough to finally give the Cougars their first loss of the fall.
The Pick: Texas Tech, 24 BYU, 20
(#3) Texas A&M Aggies @ (#22) Missouri Tigers
Line: Texas A&M -6.5
O/U: 48.5
Old Big 12 foes clash in Missouri over the weekend, albeit with different goals. Texas A&M, off to their best start in decades, is out to prove they are a legitimate National Title contender by adding another ranked win to their resume. Missouri is on the outside looking in when it comes to the College Football Playoff race, but has a chance to change their entire season with a home upset.
Still riding high after a 49-point outburst against LSU, Texas A&M's offense is aiming to keep the momentum going on the road. Quarterback Marcel Reed has been the real deal, throwing for nearly 2,000 yards and adding 349 with his legs. He's still incredibly young, so the bad decisions still sprout up, but he's shown significant improvement so far this season and his dual-threat ability is a constant headache for opposing defenses. He's benefitted greatly from who the Aggies landed in the portal, as Mario Craver and K.C. Concepcion have been among the best receivers in the SEC this season. Craver is the more traditional perimeter receiver, but when you factor in Concepcion's ability to impact games on special teams, this duo becomes downright terrifying. In the backfield alongside Reed, Rueben Owens II and Le'Veon Moss have been an impressive duo themselves, although Moss is likely still out for this game stemming from an ankle injury suffered in the Florida game. The Aggies didn't need Owens quite as much in the LSU game as you may expect, but if Reed is contained by this Missouri defense, they'll need the tailback to make his presence felt. This is a good Missouri defense, but one prone to the big play. If Reed can take care of the ball and not turn it over, this team should be in good position to keep putting points on the board.
Missouri's season took a turn in the Vanderbilt game. Not only did they come up short against the Commodores, starting QB Beau Pribula was lost for the season. With backup Sam Horn also injured, the Tigers turned to freshman Matt Zollers, who looks to be the starter for this game. Zollers actually looked pretty good considering the circumstances against Vanderbilt, and has now had a week to prepare for this contest. But, this A&M defense is a different animal completely - the Aggies will let up yardage, but this is one of the best teams in the nation when it comes to third down defense. Taurean York at linebacker and defensive linemen Cashius Howell (9.5 sacks on the season) lead an aggressive group that is going to apply the pressure on Zollers constantly. Missouri's offensive line has held up well on the season, but this is arguably the best front seven they've seen to this point. The Tigers are also going to need a big day from Ahmad Hardy, their star tailback. Hardy has been having a monster season as this team's workhorse, but it's been no secret teams have sold out to stop the run. There was no better example of that than Alabama, who limited Hardy to 52 yards on 12 carries, and forced a then-healthy Pribula to beat them through the air. With a young quarterback, Missouri may have to be creative with how they get Hardy the ball and scheme their other weapons open.
I'm always a bit hesitant to take teams fresh off a massive victory, like A&M's win over LSU two weeks ago. This has the feels of a classic letdown spot, but the absence of Pribula makes me hesitant to predict the upset. Zollers may still surprise, but this is not the ideal matchup for a freshman QB making the first start. I think the Aggies win in a game that may get just a bit ugly.
The Pick: Texas A&M, 31 Missouri, 21
Other Picks
(#9) Oregon Ducks @ (#20) Iowa Hawkeyes -- I'm always interested in the upset factor when it comes to Top 10 teams coming to Kinnick. But, the Hawkeyes have been an unlucky charm for me this fall - the Ducks come away with the victory.
The Pick: Oregon, 27 Iowa, 13
LSU Tigers @ (#4) Alabama Crimson Tide -- What once looked like a possible SEC Championship Game preview almost feels like a foregone conclusion at this point. The Crimson Tide have been through the gauntlet and have made it to the other side. I think this battle-tested team has little issues with a Tiger team now led by an interim staff.
The Pick: Alabama, 38 LSU, 24
(#2) Indiana Hoosiers @ Penn State Nittany Lions -- I keep waiting for a potential Indiana slip-up, but the Hoosiers look to be a well-oiled machine. Penn State still has talent, they are a better team than what the record may indicate, but I can't pick against Indiana right now.
The Pick: Indiana, 34 Penn State, 20
(#23) Washington Huskies @ Wisconsin Badgers -- Rumors out just today are that Luke Fickell is likely to be back next season in Madison. Something tells me that isn't going to change the product on the field. Washington rolls on the road.
The Pick: Washington, 30 Wisconsin, 14
Upset: Northwestern Wildcats @ (#19) USC Trojans -- Friday night games can always get a bit strange, and this one has that energy. USC won a thriller over Nebraska last week, but Northwestern is a better team than most may realize. This feels like a game where the Wildcats muck it up into an ugly Big Ten game, and find a way to win.
The Pick: Northwestern, 24 USC, 21
Superdog (covers > 21 point spread): Navy Midshipmen (+27) @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish -- Navy may have suffered their first loss of the season a week ago, and going into South Bend is not an ideal follow up. However, the Irish have struggled at times to stop the run, and the triple-option can close the talent gap.
The Pick: Notre Dame, 35 Navy, 17
Lock of the Week: Vanderbilt Commodores (-6) vs. Auburn Tigers -- Interim coaches do tend to make things a bit strange, and the fact of the matter is that Auburn's defense is still elite. However, the offense is just such a disaster, I don't see them keeping up with a Commodore team that has scared on everyone they've played.
The Pick: Vanderbilt, 24 Auburn, 10
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