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| Jayden Maiava, USC |
Upset: 3-9
Superdogs: 5-4
Locks: 6-6
(#15) USC Trojans @ (#7) Oregon Ducks
Line: Oregon -10.5
O/U: 59.5
Old Pac-12 foes collide in the most important game of the weekend, albeit one with different stakes. For one, this matchup could have major implications for the Big Ten Title race, if one of Ohio State or Indiana were to falter. But more importantly is the College Football Playoff - USC remains on the outside looking in, but a win here and they could secure their first Playoff trip in program history. Of course, that would simply require the Trojans to go into Eugene and steal away a win from a Top 10 Oregon.
Unsurprisingly for a Lincoln Riley-coached team, USC's success this fall has rested on an explosive offense, one averaging over 38 points per game. Quarterback Jayden Maiava has been at the controls, nearing the 3,000-yard mark in terms of passing yards, with 18 touchdowns through the air. Maiva isn't a prototypical Riley quarterback, as a lightly recruited signal-caller who began his career at USC. But, his dual threat ability and lively arm have worked wonders in this offense, which has also benefitted from a monster season from wide receiver Makai Lemon and company. The most underrated aspect of this Trojan team, however, is their ground game. With Waymond Jordan and Eli Sanders going down with injuries, the expectation was that this group would struggle, but freshman King Miller has been a revelation, hitting the 100-yard mark in three of his last five games. Miller's hard-running style has added some real bite to this offense, forcing defenses to commit resources to the run and opening up massive windows for Maiva, Lemon, and Ja'Kobi Lane. Miller has been successful even against strong run defenses, but now faces arguably his greatest test yet in Oregon. The athletes the Ducks feature in their defensive front resemble an NFL team more so than a college football team. Linebacker Bryce Boettcher and company are going to make the Trojans work for every single yard. That would be a challenge for any team, let alone a USC team that is fresh off a win over Iowa, a team that always leaves opponents battered and bruised. Riley may be able to scheme his weapons open as much as possible, but he'll still need his offensive line to have their best game of the season if they are to spring an upset.
The Ducks have lit up scoreboards all season long, although in a different way than the Trojans. They're still fairly balanced, but their ground game is certainly the primary fuel behind their success on the year. This may be the deepest backfield in all of college football - there isn't one alpha necessarily, but all of Noah Whittington, Jordon Davison, Dierre Hill Jr. and Jayden Limar can carry the load when needed. Quarterback Dante Moore can also break open plays with his legs, giving Oregon an endless supply of options. It's hard to overstate how significant of an advantage that is over the course of a game, particularly so late in the season. It allows Oregon to rotate in fresh legs on a nearly constant basis, giving them a leg up on just about every play. USC's defense has improved tremendously under coordinator D'Anton Lynn, but do they have the players to hang with this Oregon rushing attack over an entire sixty minutes? That's not to ignore the Ducks can throw the ball quite well, too, with Moore and a deep collection of pass-catchers. Freshman phenom Dakorien Moore is the most dangerous weapon and one who Oregon looks to get out in space as much as they can. But, the Ducks can also bring in tight end Kenyon Sadiq, a true matchup problem, along with veterans Gary Bryant Jr. and Malik Benson. All of that is anchored behind an elite offensive line, giving the Ducks quite the imposing offense. It's not a group known for the big play quite in the way USC is, but the pure amount of weapons available for play-caller Will Stein and company is staggering.
The Trojans are going to try and follow the Indiana model, like every other opponent against Oregon has. The Hoosiers were able to slow the game down and win in the trenches, a feat we don't see come often against teams like the Ducks. That just doesn't cater to USC's strengths - this is a team that would rather play a shootout, where they can extend the number of possessions with an aggressive defenses that forces a turnover or two. This has been a good USC team, but the matchup is just not favorable, especially in Autzen Stadium.
The Pick: Oregon, 35 USC, 24
(#22) Missouri Tigers @ (#8) Oklahoma Sooners
Line: Oklahoma -6.5
O/U: 42.5
It's another Top 25 matchup that features old rivalries now in new homes. What was once a Big 12 battle is of course now in the SEC, in another game with Playoff implications. Oklahoma got a massive win last week against Alabama and is in position to make the field, but they can't avoid a slip-up at home against a Missouri team that would love to play spoiler.
Missouri got huge news at the right time, as quarterback Beau Pribula is expected to start in this one after missing the last two-and-a-half games with injury. Freshman Matt Zollers had done an admirable job in place of Pribula, but there's no denying it's a major upgrade for the Tigers to get their starting quarterback back in the fold. He'll open up the passing game, but this remains a run-oriented offense led by Ahmad Hardy, a Doak Walker Award frontrunner. Hardy has had a monster season already, and he's elevated his play in recent weeks, including last Saturday against Mississippi State, when he amassed 300 yards and three touchdowns in the win. Everyone in the stadium knew the Tigers were going to feed Hardy, but the tailback has been on a mission all season, and should benefit from the return of Pribula. This still will not be an ideal matchup for Hardy and company, as they face an Oklahoma team that boasts the nation's fourth-ranked rushing defense. Brent Venables and his staff have completely overhauled this side of the ball since his arrival, and it's now one of the country's premier units. To make matters worse, there's increasing hope for the Sooners that star defensive end R Mason Thomas could be back for this game, although we'll learn more with the late Friday availability report. Thomas missed Oklahoma's upset win over Alabama, but his presence could still be a game-changer for the Sooners, as he's tallied 9.5 tackles for loss and 6.5 sacks on the year.
We were so used to high-flying Oklahoma offenses under Lincoln Riley, it's still a bit strange to see a Sooners team that leans on their defense and just hopes they get enough points from their offense to come out victorious. This year's group in particular started off strong, but has faded over the last couple months due to an injury to starting QB John Mateer and an underwhelming rushing attack. Mateer appears to be closing in on 100 percent and is quite the difference-maker when healthy, but he has not thrown a touchdown in either of Oklahoma's wins over Tennessee and Alabama. The ground game has had a tough time getting it going all season, and appears to still be figuring things out. Freshman Tory Blaylock has been their go-to guy over the course of this fall, but has been banged up in recent weeks and has just five carries over their last two games. Xavier Robinson has gotten the majority of the carries in that time, but there's also hope that the Sooners could get back Taylor Tatum, who has been hurt since fall camp. Tatum flashed last season, but has seen just one carry throughout this fall. If this team can get healthy at the right spots, they're significantly more dangerous as they gear up for a potential CFB Playoff run. As for Missouri, the Tiger defense has played well for much of the season, but just hasn't found a way to make the key stop in the most important moments. Can that change on the road?
There's nothing pretty about this Oklahoma brand of football, but there should be no more denying its effectiveness. Back-to-back wins over Tennessee and Alabama now have this team in position to return to the College Football Playoff for the first time under Venables. Even with Pribula back, the Sooners hold the edge in the most important matchup of the game: their rush defense against Hardy. If they can slow him down and do just enough offensively, they come out with the win.
The Pick: Oklahoma, 24 Missouri, 14
Other Picks
(#20) Tennessee Volunteers @ Florida Gators -- Things have a tendency to get strange in this rivalry game, and Florida is playing hard after giving Ole Miss a scare last weekend. Still, I'm just not sure they have enough offensively to last with the Vols for the entire four quarters.
The Pick: Tennessee, 34 Florida, 27
Louisville Cardinals @ SMU Mustangs -- A pair of close losses in a row have knocked Louisville out of the ACC Title race, while SMU quietly has a very good chance to return to the Championship Game. The Cardinals are still a good football team, but the Mustangs have the momentum and get them at home.
The Pick: SMU, 30 Louisville, 28
(#21) Illinois Fighting Illini @ Wisconsin Badgers -- Bret Bielema returns to Madison, as Illinois squares off with a 3-7 Wisconsin team just hoping they can end the year on a high note. The switch to Carter Smith at QB has at least given the Badgers a potential glimpse at the future, but the offense still doesn't have enough to keep up.
The Pick: Illinois, 27 Wisconsin, 13
Montana State Bobcats @ Montana Grizzlies -- The best game this Saturday? None other than the "Brawl of the Wild", one of the most heated rivalries in all of college football. This one has the stakes, too, with the winner set to take the Big Sky and head into FCS Playoffs with the No. 2 seed. The home team has dominated the series as of late, and Montana is the better team. They squeak out the win in a hard-fought battle in Missoula.
The Pick: Montana, 21 Montana State, 17
Upset: Pittsburgh Panthers @ (#16) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets -- Georgia Tech has been a remarkable story all season, and this team has found ways to close out tight game after tight game. Yet, I have long felt they were going to caught at some point, and Pittsburgh is a much different team than they were early on in the fall. Add in the fact the Yellow Jackets may be peeking ahead to Georgia, I like the chances of the upset.
The Pick: Pittsburgh, 31 Georgia Tech, 28
Double Upset: TCU Horned Frogs @ (#23) Houston Cougars -- It's been a rough fall for my upset picks, so why not load up for one of the final weekends of the year? Houston is another team that has won a host of tight games, hiding the fact this is a flawed 8-2 football team. The Horned Frogs can score in a hurry, and I like them to overcome a mediocre Cougar offense here.
The Pick: TCU, 35 Houston, 31
Triple Upset: (#11) BYU Cougars @ Cincinnati Bearcats -- It's always the weeks that appear the most underwhelming at face value that feature the most chaos. This week feels like that type of week, so late in the year and with so much of the SEC on what essentially amounts to a bye week. Cincinnati has the offensive explosiveness to surprise BYU at home in this game.
The Pick: Cincinnati, 38 BYU, 28
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