Current Picks Record: 47-34
Brendan Sorsby, Cincinnati
Upset: 3-7
Superdogs: 4-3
Locks: 5-5
(#17) Cincinnati Bearcats @ (#24) Utah Utes
Line: Utah -10.5
O/U: 54.5
They still have not received the national attention they deserve, prior to his week, but Cincinnati finds themselves in great position in the Big 12 Title race and as a bonafide CFB Playoff contender. The Bearcats are 7-1 and their lone loss came in the season-opener, against Nebraska at a neutral site. Yet, this week will tell us a lot about just how legit the Bearcats are, as they travel to Salt Lake City to meet up with Utah. Fresh off a blowout win over Colorado, the Utes are hoping for their own resume-boosting victory in front of the home crowd.
This is a genuinely good Cincinnati offense, a unit that is averaging over 38 points per contest, with a nice mix of pass and run. Quarterback Brendan Sorsby has really taken off after a couple up-and-down seasons, with over 1,800 yards through the air and 20 touchdowns to just one interception. The stats alone would be impressive, but it's Sorsby's feel for the game that stands out at you when watching this Cincinnati team. He doesn't turn the ball over, he gets the ball out quick and doesn't take sacks, and he plays with the poise of a veteran college football quarterback. He's benefitted from a solid supporting cast that may not have a ton of star power, but is quite solid. Evan Pryor and Tawee Walker have been an excellent 1-2 punch in the backfield alongside Sorsby, while Cyrus Allen and big-play threat Caleb Goodie do damage on the perimeter. With that being said, Pryor has been ruled out for this game, robbing the Bearcats of a key piece who just simply moves the chains. It may not force this team to completely overhaul their gameplan, but Sorsby may be asked to do even more, and Walker is going to have to carry the load even more so than he has through the first nine weeks. Utah's defense does pose an interesting challenge for this Bearcats team. We've just come to expect the Utes and their physical nature to be a differentiator in this conference, and this is a team that does have real athletes in this front seven. Yet, they've been pushed around in both of their losses, albeit to a pair of really good teams in BYU and Texas Tech. It does feel like they own the edge in the trenches in this game, but it felt like that was supposed to be the case in past games, and hasn't always been. Interestingly enough, Utah's pass defense, which was my main concern for the team entering the season, has been arguably their greatest strength. They're fourth in the nation in pass defense yardage allowed, and seem to have the right combination on the back-end to slow down Sorsby and company.
There have been some notable ups-and-downs for this Utah offense over the course of the season, but last week was certainly a highlight. With starting QB Devon Dampier out, the Utes had their most complete offensive game of the season, gaining 587 yards and dropping 53 points on the Colorado Buffaloes. Freshman Byrd Ficklin was a complete surprise, leading the team in passing and rushing despite entering the game with just nine career pass attempts. Dampier is expected to play this Saturday as he was not listed on Utah's injury report, but could that be a negative? It's easy to overreact to one game, and Dampier has still proven his worth, but you do have to wonder how Utah's offense will react to such an impressive performance. With Dampier in, the Utes may take the occasional shot down the field in a way they didn't really with Ficklin, but this is still a run-oriented offense. Dampier's legs are always a factor, and Wayshawn Parker has had an impressive season as their lead back. Don't be surprised if we still do see plenty of Ficklin, who has been used in a lot of packages throughout the fall to this point. What I may be most excited for this Utah team is the battle in the trenches, especially these Ute blockers against Cincinnati's defensive front. Caleb Lomu and Spencer Fano are two surefire future NFL tackles, while Dontay Corleone is one of the best interior D-Linemen anywhere in the country, even if he's been held in check for much of this season. This is not going to be one of your old Big 12 games that resembled basketball scores - this has the looks of a physical, low-scoring affair to me.
The Pick: Utah, 28 Cincinnati, 20
(#9) Vanderbilt Commodores @ (#20) Texas Longhorns
Line: Texas -3.5
O/U: 46.5
Just as everyone expected, Vanderbilt enters Week Ten in prime position for a College Football Playoff berth and even SEC Title run. Meanwhile, Texas, the preseason No. 1 team, is barely holding on, as they're 6-2 and fresh off two super close victories over teams considered SEC bottom-feeders. The unpredictable nature of college football will be on full display with these two on Saturday.
There may not be a better story in college football than Vanderbilt, and no better figurehead than quarterback Diego Pavia. Pavia has had a wild road to Nashville, up through the JUCO ranks, to New Mexico State, and now with the Commodores. And now he finds himself in Heisman conversations after a start that has included over 2,000 all-purpose yards and 20 total touchdowns. His dual-threat ability makes him a candidate to break open games at any moment, but he's not just a gunslinger. He's shown real growth in his understanding of the game, and it's his improvement that has elevated Vandy's entire play. He's the unquestioned leader of this offense, but the other pieces deserve plenty of credit, too. Sedrick Alexander and Makhilyn Young may be the most underrated running back duo in the country, with Young showing off his home run ability throughout this entire fall. His huge run last week against Missouri was the real difference, while Alexander's workhorse nature tires and softens up opposing defenses. The pass-catchers include star tight end Eli Stowers, plus Junior Sherrill and Tre Richardson, both of whom are reliable targets out wide for Pavia. This Vanderbilt team is not going to be intimidated at all by this Texas defense. The Longhorns were expected to be elite on this side of the ball heading into the year and there's no question of the talent, but the performance has been all over the place. They've stepped up with the offensive struggles, but surrendering 38 points to Mississippi State last week was quite the surprise. Perhaps it had more to do with a superb gameplan from Jeff Lebby and the Bulldogs, but the Commodores have to sense some blood in the water as they prep for this game.
There's been enough written about Arch Manning and the struggles for Texas offensively that it almost feels like piling on at this point. There's no question this has been an incredibly disappointing group, currently coming in 66th nationally with 29 points per game. As if that wasn't enough now there's the question about Arch's health, as he was rocked in the Mississippi State game and is still in concussion protocol. If he can't go, it's senior Matthew Caldwell time, a player on his fifth school who threw one pass for one touchdown in the win last weekend. Caldwell certainly doesn't have the talent of Arch, but he's not a complete nobody, either. He's thrown 496 times over a five-year college career, and he was most recently at Troy, where he threw for 1,608 yards and 13 touchdowns. Either way, Texas will lean on their rushing attack, led by Quintrevion Wisner, and hope that Ryan Wingo can also help break things open on the perimeter. The ground game has been surprisingly underwhelming for Texas this year, as teams have been willing to stack boxes with the struggles of Arch. Yet, the Longhorns should own the size advantage in this game, even with Vanderbilt having quite a strong front seven. Can we finally see Wisner do more damage than 3.8 yards per carry? Will we see others get involved, such as a C.J. Baxter? As much hate as Arch has gotten this fall, this team really needs their other pieces to step up, too.
These two teams have been my kryptonite all year. I'm not sure I've picked a single game they've played in right. I've been especially hard on Vanderbilt, not because they're a great story, but because I've long felt the magic would run out. They've proven me wrong time and time again, and made believers out of me. With the questions around Arch only adding to the mystery for Texas, the Commodores are my pick.
The Pick: Vanderbilt, 34 Texas, 24
Other Picks
(#18) Oklahoma Sooners @ (#14) Tennessee Volunteers -- Oklahoma hasn't quite looked right since John Mateer's injury, and now they have to travel into Knoxville. As long as the Volunteers can get a few stops, I see them coming out victorious.
The Pick: Tennessee, 28 Oklahoma, 26
Penn State Nittany Lions @ (#1) Ohio State Buckeyes -- What was supposed to be one of the biggest games of the year heading into the fall now feels like it has an inevitable conclusion. Even if Penn State is able to hold the Buckeyes in check, I don't envision them finding enough ways to score.
The Pick: Ohio State, 41 Penn State, 13
(#5) Georgia Bulldogs vs. Florida Gators -- Rivalry games are always interesting and interim coaches throw another wrench into this particular game. Yet, Georgia has won every game in this series but one dating back to 2017, and they're the much better team top-to-bottom.
The Pick: Georgia, 35 Florida, 17
Navy Midshipmen @ North Texas Mean Green -- The most underrated game of the weekend, with significant College Football Playoff aspirations on the line. Navy is 7-0, North Texas is 7-1, but only one can escape with a win. The triple-option is always tough to predict, but the high-flying North Texas offense does enough to get the job done.
The Pick: North Texas, 30 Navy, 27
Upset: (#15) Virginia Cavaliers @ California Golden Bears -- Virginia has been a great story, but they are skating on thin ice at this point. They've won their last four games by a combined 14 points, and now head to Berkeley. California has been trending down over the last month, but they pull the upset at home.
The Pick: California, 27 Virginia, 21
Superdog (covers > 21 point spread): Purdue Boilermakers (+22) @ Michigan Wolverines -- I'm not sure Purdue is going to get another win yet this fall, but this is a better team than their 2-6 record may indicate. Even on the road in Ann Arbor, I think they pressure Bryce Underwood enough to keep themselves in the game late.
The Pick: Michigan, 28 Purdue, 10
Lock of the Week: Washington State Cougars (-3.5) @ Oregon State Beavers -- As strange as it sounds, this is one of two games remaining between these two teams on the year. This game being in Corvallis makes it interesting, but Washington State is a good football team. Even in their recent losses, they've punched way above their weight and should keep the momentum rolling.
The Pick: Washington State, 21 Oregon State, 9
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