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| Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State |
College Football Playoff First Round: (12) Clemson Tigers @ (5) Texas Longhorns
Line: Texas -12
O/U: 51.5
After a three-year hiatus, the Clemson Tigers are returning to the College Football Playoff. Their reward? The fifth-seeded Texas Longhorns, who were battling for a potential top overall seed in the SEC Championship Game before ultimately coming up short against Georgia. It will be an uphill battle for Dabo Swinney and the Tigers as they travel to Austin as two touchdown underdogs, but also an opportunity to prove they still belong in the conversation of truly elite teams on a national level.
Clemson's three-point effort in the season-opening loss to Georgia was quite the concerning start for a program that had suffered through a startling amount of offensive woes the year prior, their worst season in a decade-and-a-half. But since that game, the Tiger offense has flipped a switch, utilizing a balanced attack to average 37.4 PPG and serve as the catalyst for the eventual ACC Champion. Quarterback Cade Klubnik has been the figurehead, a guy who had a frustrating first season as starter in 2023, but has shown tremendous growth this fall. Klubnik has always had the arm talent, but he's played with significantly more confidence this season and has been willing to air it out in a way we simply didn't see previously. This still isn't an aerial attack at the level of the prime Deshaun Watson or Trevor Lawrence years, but the Tigers can truly stretch the field vertically. It has certainly helped Klubnik that the receiver corps has also seen major improvements, with Antonio Williams solidifying himself as a solid No. 1 and the young guys, T.J. Moore and Bryant Wesco Jr., seemingly getting better each and every week. I think the momentum the Clemson passing game will take into this one has a real chance to continue. Texas has been good enough on the back-end to be successful, but they thrive off turnovers. If Klubnik and company can take care of the football, which they've done for much of the year, they have a real chance to rack up some major yardage through the air. Where the Texas defense does hold an advantage, however, is up front, where they feature a host of future NFL defensive linemen and a budding superstar in linebacker Anthony Hill. Vernon Broughton is the big name for the Longhorn defensive line on the interior, but this is a group that is deep and relentless, going up against a Clemson O-Line that hasn't seen athletes like this since the Georgia game. These Tiger blockers are experienced, but I wouldn't be surprised if there isn't a bit of shell-shock initially with what Texas throws at them. And if Clemson isn't able to recover and tailback Phil Mafah is held in check, the Tigers may have to press offensively in a way they haven't had to for much of the season. If that indeed happens, how they handle that adversity will tell us a lot about this football team - when they fell behind to UGA and Louisville early, they simply were not able to recover.
The Longhorns faced their fair share of obstacles offensively on the season, albeit in a different way than Clemson. Injuries have ended up being an unfortunate theme of the fall for Texas, beginning in fall camp with a season-ending injury to C.J. Baxter, who was primed for a huge year as the feature back. Since then, the Longhorns have watched as QB Quinn Ewers has faced a myriad of health problems, and now enter the CFB Playoff with their top target, Isaiah Bond, and top O-Linemen, Kelvin Banks Jr., both banged up. It sounds like Banks is in line to return to action after missing the SEC Championship Game, but Bond's status is a little bit more up in the air as we stand at the time of publishing. Losing a player like Bond would be huge for this Longhorn offense - he's not just their most productive wide receiver, his mere presence commands the defense's attention, and opens up opportunities elsewhere. There are other weapons Ewers can take advantage of, including Matthew Golden and rock-solid tight end Gunnar Helm Jr., but it will be interesting to see how this passing game operates in this one. Fortunately, the ground game has really improved since the start of the season, with sophomore Quintrevion Wisner really emerging as a lead back. He should be eager to get back on the field after being held in check by Georgia, and able to give this strong Clemson defensive front a challenge. In fact, it's the battle between this Clemson front seven and Texas O-Line that I may be the most excited about. The Tigers remain an NFL Draft factory with what they do in their front seven, while Steve Sarkisian's buildup of the Longhorn offensive line has been the secret sauce to their recent success. Even in a game like this, with so much talent on the field, I suspect whoever maintains the edge in the trenches will come out victorious.
Heading into this Playoff, the Longhorns were my National Title pick. And they still are - despite the injury questions that still seem to be hanging over them. But, this is a tough first round game, even if this Clemson team still has their flaws. They still have NFL athletes on both sides of the ball that should be able to challenge the 'Horns, and Klubnik is enough of a weapon himself to test this Texas secondary. I still think Texas finds a way to outlast them in Austin, but I think this could be a tight one until the very end.
The Pick: Texas, 31 Clemson, 28
College Football Playoff First Round: (9) Tennessee Volunteers @ (8) Ohio State Buckeyes
Line: Ohio State -7.5
O/U: 45.5
No coach has ever entered the College Football Playoff under as much pressure as Ohio State head man Ryan Day as the Buckeyes gear up for their first round clash with Tennessee. A humiliating loss to five-loss Michigan may not have knocked Ohio State out of the 12-team field, but it left with them very little margin for error. Now, they have to overcome a tough Tennessee team in the first round, who may be making their first ever Playoff berth, but enters the game with significantly more momentum - and seemingly nothing to lose.
Over the past few weeks, the Buckeyes have had to deal with a world of criticism for their offensive gameplan in the Michigan loss, when they decided to keep running the ball between the tackles despite facing a Wolverine interior D-Line with multiple future NFL Draft selections. Needless to say, I think Chip Kelly and Day will have a different strategy with how they choose to attack the Volunteers. They'll likely have QB Will Howard operate out of the shotgun, and look to spread the ball around to their playmakers on the perimeter. It certainly feels like the right strategy - very few defenses in the country can contain the trio of Emeka Egbuka, Jeremiah Smith, and Carnell Tate, and Tennessee has been prone to the big play at times through the air. I expect Ohio State to still use the run, but in a more strategic sense, and also look to potentially get outside of the tackles with the duo of Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson. Most importantly, however, Ohio State may need to find a way to shield an offensive line that has taken their lumps in the second half of this season, as they prepare for a Volunteer defense that loves to blitz. Losing center Seth McLaughlin has left them exposed on the interior, and they simply have not gotten the push they need up front to overpower teams, yet another reason why the strategy against Michigan was baffling. They've had time to get healthier and rested, but this is still going to be a real challenge, and we are going to learn a lot about this team with how they handle Tennessee. Even if they find a way to win this game, but still struggle to get the necessary push up front, it's difficult to imagine them beating Oregon or the other elite teams in the field.
We've become so used to high-scoring Tennessee offenses under Josh Heupel, it's felt strange to see their evolution this fall. It really has been the defense that has fueled their Playoff run, with the offense taking more of a backseat. Even when the Volunteers have moved the ball offensively, it hasn't been their passing game doing most of the damage, but instead tailback Dylan Sampson, who has nearly 1,500 yards and 22 touchdowns on the year. Sampson really sets up everything the Volunteers want to do offensively - his hard running tires out defenses and opens things up, and he can just as easily bust out a game-changing run. This is not an easy matchup against this Buckeye front seven, but Ohio State certainly hasn't been completely shutdown against the run. Look no further than the Michigan game as evidence, where they still struggled to contain Kaleel Mullings at times despite the Wolverines being so one-dimensional. Still, this is a huge game for Tennessee quarterback Nico Iamaleava, who was an expected breakout star heading into the fall. Iamaleava has still been solid, but it doesn't feel like we've seen him at his true peak just yet. The Buckeyes aren't an easy matchup in the secondary, either, and Jim Knowles loves throwing new looks at young quarterbacks. But the scouting report on Nico is that he does feel like the quarterback who steps up on the big stage like this, and I think he should relish the opportunity in front of him in Columbus.
I've gone back and forth on who my pick for this game will be, which I suppose makes sense for an 8/9 matchup. On paper, Ohio State is the better team and they are the home team, but it just hasn't always shown up in practice this season. Tennessee has their flaws but are playing better football, and have the type of defense that could flummox Will Howard and the Buckeyes. I'll take Ohio State because they have a higher ceiling and the homefield advantage will be crucial, but it should be another close one.
The Pick: Ohio State, 28 Tennessee, 24
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