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| Drew Allar, Penn State |
College Football Playoff First Round: (10) Indiana Hoosiers @ (7) Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Line: Notre Dame -7.5
O/U: 51.5
The state of Indiana has always been known for their basketball, but the success of the Indiana Hoosiers this fall now sets up an exciting in-state matchup between the state's flagship universities - on the gridiron. It really is the type of first round matchup the College Football Playoff was going for in its expansion to 12 teams, pitting the traditional power (Notre Dame) against the upstart Hoosiers, a program with almost no football history to speak of. Add to that the fact the programs are separated by just 200 miles and there's a real chance of snow in the forecast, this game has all the makings of a classic in South Bend.
As shocking as Notre Dame's loss to Northern Illinois was in early September, the Irish deserve all the credit in the world for their response over these last three months. They've won ten straight games, including three over ranked foes, and absolutely pummeled most of their competition en route to the 11-1 regular season finish. They've done so with an extremely balanced scheme and a well-coached, smothering defense that has allowed the Irish to beat opponents in any way they please. Quarterback Riley Leonard, who transferred over from Duke for a one-season run with the Irish, has looked in complete command after a shaky start. He hasn't been asked to air it out, but instead lead a methodical, quick attack passing game that relies heavily on timing. The passing game has been incredibly balanced - six different Notre Dame pass-catchers have recorded 190 or more receiving yards, but only one, Beaux Collins, is over the 400 yard mark. I'll be curious to see whether Notre Dame choses to continue that balance into the Playoffs. The knock on this program throughout much of the Brian Kelly years were that their lack of explosive playmakers on the outside restricted them from going head-to-head against the true elites of the sport. Guys like Collins and Jaden Greathouse are good enough to give opposing defenses on the perimeter, but how aggressive offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock chooses to be will tell us whether that issue has persisted into big games in the Marcus Freeman era. Either way, the Irish should still lean heavily on their ground game, especially considering this matchup. Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price have been a superb 1-2 punch out of the backfield, and are operating behind an offensive line that has improved drastically since Week One of the season. This group seems like they'll be able to neutralize Mikail Kamara and the rest of a physical Hoosier defensive front, pounding the rock and limiting Indiana's offensive possessions. Notre Dame has no problem making this is a low-scoring, ugly type of game. That still is their comfort zone and considering the potential weather, it certainly feels like the right strategy.
Curt Cignetti instantly set off fireworks his brash confidence upon taking the Indiana job, but there's no denying what a superb job he has done in Year One in Bloomington. Sure, the Hoosiers played a favorable schedule, but they've looked every bit like one of the Top 12 teams in the country, one year removed from a nine-loss season under Tom Allen. The team is well-coached, disciplined, and prepared each and every week, and they should relish the opportunity to show what they can do against an in-state rival. The Irish defense will be quite the test for them with what Al Golden can draw up as offensive coordinator. However, quarterback Kurtis Rourke and the rest of these Hoosiers have not been intimidated by any opponent all season, and they should be ready to go for this one. Rourke in particular has to be feeling good after seeing what the Irish defense looked like in their final game of the regular season against USC. Although they still came out victorious, Notre Dame was regularly burned by Lincoln Riley and an aggressive Trojan passing game, a really concerning look for a group that has looked so good for much of the year. Of course, Lincoln Riley is quite the offensive genius, but Notre Dame has clearly missed star cornerback Benjamin Morrison, who is out for the season. Look for the Hoosiers to take their shots down the field, especially early on, to feel out what adjustments the Irish made over the last couple weeks. Elijah Sarratt and Omar Cooper aren't just Indiana's top two receivers, they're both deep threats that have proven they can break open games. Cooper is averaging over 21 yards per catch, and has to be a player to key in on for Golden and the rest of this Notre Dame defense. The Hoosiers are able to feature a rushing attack that is quite the complement to what they do throwing the football, but this will be a tough matchup for them. Justice Ellison and Ty Son Lawton are more than capable, but the Irish are as good of a front seven as you'll see in college football. They're not quite as athletic up front as they've been in the past, but between Jack Kiser, Drayk Bowen, and this ferocious defensive line, they're going to make Indiana work for every inch.
The first game of the 12-team College Football Playoff era should be a competitive one, but I'm not sure it's going to be the prettiest, highest-scoring game of the first round. Considering how these two will look to play and the weather element, I get the sense this is going to be a little bit of an ugly, grinding type of football game. Both of these teams are capable of winning that type of game, but I just trust the Irish a bit more in their identity and what they know they can do. The Hoosiers will not be an easy out, but ND wins the battle of Indiana this time around.
The Pick: Notre Dame, 27 Indiana, 17
College Football Playoff First Round: (11) SMU Mustangs @ (6) Penn State Nittany Lions
Line: Penn State -8.5
O/U: 53.5
The SMU Mustangs and Penn State Nittany Lions have played each other just once on the football field, but there's an interesting thread of college football history between these two. In 1982, SMU, in the prime of their "Pony Express" days, would not lose a single game on the year, with a tie to a Top 10 Arkansas team the only blemish. However, they were still passed for a National Championship, which instead went to the one-loss Nittany Lions, thanks to Penn State's dismantling of No. 1 Georgia in the Sugar Bowl. Over four decades later, the two collide in the first round of the College Football Playoff, with SMU not just looking for a type of historical redemption, but also to prove they belong after getting into the field over Alabama.
The entire direction of SMU's season changed in mid-September, when head coach Rhett Lashlee made the decision to bench incumbent starting quarterback Preston Stone and instead ride with backup Kevin Jennings. Jennings has made the most of the opportunity, eclipsing 3,000 passing yards and finishing with 27 total touchdowns. Beyond just the pure numbers, Jennings has played with exceptional poise, and the entire Mustang offense has moved in a rhythm that has them putting up nearly 40 points per contest. Surrounding Jennings is an exciting supporting cast, all operating under an up-tempo, aggressive scheme. Brashard Smith has been one of the most underrated breakout stars in the country at tailback, while the Mustangs have leaned on a balanced and deep receiver corps on the outside. They have missed tight end R.J. Maryland, one of their more reliable targets, but have seemingly looked to open things up vertically more down the stretch in his absence. This Mustang offense presents quite an interesting challenge for the Nittany Lion defense, who has put together an incredible season of their own under defensive coordinator Tom Allen. It's a balanced offense with ample versatility and despite how much they like to throw the ball around, they don't turn it over often. Penn State feels like they'll have an edge up front, with a strong defensive line, and Abdul Carter and Kobe King making plays sideline-to-sideline. But, how the secondary fares may just end up making all the difference for them. The Nittany Lions just haven't seen a lot of truly great passing offenses in the Big Ten. In fact, beyond Oregon in the Big Ten Championship Game, you could make the argument the best passing attack they've seen was two months ago at USC, who gave them quite a game at the LA Coliseum.
James Franklin's decision to move on from offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich last offseason and replace him with Andy Kotelnicki from Kansas proved to make quite the difference in Happy Valley. Kotelnicki's unique scheme, with uses a wide range of formations and shifting, has flummoxed defenses all season long, and helped the Nittany Lions earn a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game. The next step for Kotelnicki and this entire offense will be proving it in the big games, and the 37 points in the eventual loss to Oregon was awfully promising. But, the ugly showing against Ohio State in their lone regular season defeat still seems to hang over this entire side of the ball, and has to serve as motivation as the program prepares for its first ever College Football Playoff appearance. There's plenty of pressure on Penn State's top playmakers, too, namely quarterback Drew Allar and the two-headed monster at tailback in Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton. Allar has been a steady force all season long, and should relish against an SMU secondary that has taken their lumps this fall. However, he needs more consistency from his pass-catchers beyond tight end Tyler Warren. Names like Harrison Wallace III and Omari Evans have had their moments in flashes, but the Nittany Lions need more consistent playmaking from the position if they want to challenge the true elites in this Playoff. Fortunately, Singleton and Allen remain a reliable source of yardage, and Penn State should press their advantage in the trenches with a strong offensive line.
As opposed to a Notre Dame-Indiana game that may end up being a low-scoring affair, I suspect there could be some offensive fireworks between these two. Even with solid defenses, both these offenses know how to keep defenses on their toes, and they can put up points in a hurry. I think it may end up coming down to a game of adjustments, especially deeper into the second half, and I have more trust in what the Nittany Lions will be able to figure out than the Mustangs. Not that SMU doesn't have the talent or coaching staff, but their disadvantage on the depth chart is likely to show the deeper we get into this football game.
The Pick: Penn State, 38 SMU, 27
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