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| Ashton Jeanty, Boise State |
Fiesta Bowl: (6) Penn State Nittany Lions @ (3) Boise State Broncos (Glendale)
Line: Penn State -11.5
O/U: 54.5
For much of the BCS era, Boise State was the lovable underdog, crashing a system designed for the sport's heavyweights. As we've transitioned to the 12-team CFB Playoff era, they're in a slightly different position, operating as the higher seed and "home" team in this year's Fiesta Bowl. In the way of the Broncos this time around are the Penn State Nittany Lions, fresh off a dominant showing in their first round win over SMU. With entry into the Playoff semifinals on the line and fun matchups all across the board in this game, it should be a fun way to kick off the quarterfinals of the first 12-team Playoff.
Needless to say, Boise State's offense revolves around superstar tailback Ashton Jeanty, in the midst of one of the greatest running back seasons in college football history. Jeanty has rushed for 2,497 yards and 29 touchdowns, and it certainly hasn't been simply racking up huge stats against meager competition. In games against Boise State's two toughest opponents on the season, Oregon and UNLV, Jeanty rushed for 192, 128, and 209 (played UNLV twice). He should relish this opportunity against a strong Penn State defense, a program that has long been known as a factory of elite linebacker play. This Nittany Lion defense is particularly strong up front - Abdul Carter sets the edge as a relentless pass rusher after transitioning from linebacker, and the trio of Kobe King, Tony Rojas, and Dom DeLuca plays all over the field, sideline-to-sideline. Jeanty is still a candidate to take a big run or two to the house, as he often does, but he'll have to work for every yard in a way he hasn't often this season. The Nittany Lions will certainly do everything they can to force the Broncos to use their passing game in a way they simply haven't for much of the season in an effort to get them out of their rhythm. Maddux Madsen has been efficient under center and taken care of the football, doing just enough to put Boise in position to win games with Jeanty leading the way. But, is he ready for this type of stage against a blitz-heavy Penn State defense? Former Indiana transfer Cam Camper on the perimeter knows Penn State well, and tight end Matt Lauter and Latrell Caples will also be featured heavily. How effective they are against a Nittany Lion secondary that is still occasionally prone to the big play will be a fascinating watch.
The Penn State offense may not have an Ashton Jeanty, but this is a balanced group that enters the game averaging over 35 points per contest. You'll see play-caller Andy Kotelnicki mix things up quite a bit with this group, including using shifts and unique formations to keep the defense honest. Quarterback Drew Allar is the figurehead, and he's had an impressive junior season, but the Nittany Lions also lean heavily on the running back duo of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen. Allen is more of the short yardage specialist, while it's Singleton that can break open games with his breakaway speed. No matter who is on the field, they'll put pressure on a Boise defense that hasn't really seen a two-headed monster in the backfield quite like this, even against their toughest opponents. The Bronco defense will also have to contend with tight end Tyler Warren, one of the most interesting players in college football. Warren will line up truly everywhere, even taking some snaps out of the backfield. The Broncos must be creative in how they cover him, without leaving themselves too exposed to the other weapons Penn State can throw at them. You also get the feeling Andy Kotelnicki may have further tricks up his sleeve for this type of big stage. Trick plays, gadget plays, another different formation - he's going to keep Boise constantly guessing for the entire sixty minutes.
In their fourth Fiesta Bowl, Boise State will rock their usual uniform combination - a blue, white, orange look that they are currently 3-0 in. Certainly the energy and "vibes" will be there for the Broncos, but this is an incredibly tough matchup for them. Penn State is an exceptionally balanced and well-rounded football team, and they are focused in after their first round dominance. I figure they do just enough to contain Jeanty and they pound the rock the other way, where they hold a superior edge in the trenches. I don't suspect a super pretty football game, but I figure the Nittany Lions will come out victorious.
The Pick: Penn State, 30 Boise State, 17
Peach Bowl: (5) Texas Longhorns @ (4) Arizona State Sun Devils (Atlanta)
Line: Texas -12.5
O/U: 51.5
For just the second time in history, Texas & Arizona State will meet up, the first meeting between the two since the 2007 Holiday Bowl. Of course, that game did not have the high stakes of this one, with a trip to the Playoff semifinals on the line. Both programs will be out to prove something, too - Arizona State is looking to show that they deserved the first-round bye they received as Big 12 Champion, while the Longhorns have their sights set on their first National Title since Vince Young was under center.
Steve Sarkisian has become known throughout the years for his high-octane, pass heavy offenses, but this Texas team has been a bit different in 2024. Despite losing rising star C.J. Baxter prior to the season, the Longhorns have leaned on a power-run game for a big chunk of the year. That was on full display in their first round game against Clemson, when Texas ran the ball a staggering 48 times for nearly 300 yards, despite facing a Tiger front full of future NFL defenders. Quintrevion Wisner and Jaydon Blue may be the most under-appreciated running back duo in all of college football but more importantly, the Longhorn offensive line is the best in all of the land. With a healthy Kelvin Banks Jr. back in the fold, Texas can simply overpower opponents, with a host of future NFL blockers. Arizona State is going to have their work cut out for them battling against this group for four quarters, especially with the depth Texas maintains in the unit. Quarterback Quinn Ewers and the Longhorn passing game shouldn't be forgotten about, either, and there's more good news for Texas here. Isaiah Bond, who missed their first round game against Clemson, is expected to be fully back and ready to go, giving the Longhorns a weapon that can take the top off opposing defenses. Matthew Golden and tight end Gunnar Helm give Ewers more than enough options, and the Longhorns do an excellent job of setting up this passing attack. Add in Arch Manning as a potential runner in different packages, there's so many different ways Texas can attack when they are fully healthy. The Sun Devil defense has been strong this season and is much more physical than one may assume, but they are going to be facing a different caliber of athlete on the field here than what they saw in the Big 12 this fall.
If you haven't heard of Arizona State tailback Cam Skattebo, you're in for a treat in this one. The veteran tailback has had a monster 2024, rushing for 1,568 yards and 19 touchdowns on the season. But, beyond just the numbers, the way Skattebo runs is a super fun watch. He's one of the hardest runners I've ever seen in college football, a relentless ball-carrier who claws and scrapes for every inch on the football field. Add in the fact he can catch and make some plays as a receiver out of the backfield, he is certainly the main point of focus for Texas coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski and the rest of this defense. The good news for Texas is they have a defensive line and linebacker corps built to withstand a runner like Skattebo. The D-Line is deep and talented, and the linebacker group is incredibly active, namely freshman phenom Anthony Hill. Skattebo is still going to get his yardage, but the depth that Texas boasts will help them stay fresher deeper into the game, and likely minimize his impact into the second half. Arizona State QB Sam Leavitt still deserves plenty of credit, too, even with Skattebo overshadowing him in this backfield. A first-year starter, Leavitt has played with a poise and maturity well beyond his years, and put up strong numbers. He's been willing to take his shots down the field, and his ability to improvise with his legs gives this Sun Devil offense some real pop. With Jordan Tyson having a huge season on the perimeter, the Sun Devils are able to pound with Skattebo and air it out when necessary, a scary combination for any opposing defense. The Longhorn secondary could be in store for a challenge, a group that may have Thorpe Award winner Jahdae Barron, but still has its flaws beyond him.
Arizona State has exceeded expectations all season long, but this team is no fluke. They're well-coached, play hard, and have multiple ways to beat you on both sides of the ball. However, I just think they're running into a Texas team that is a machine at this point in time. The Longhorns are built like a true elite in the sport should be, and the fact that they're getting healthy for this one makes them all the more scary. The Sun Devils are good enough to make this a game, without a doubt, but I think the edge in talent on the depth chart is going to start to show in the second half. Texas was my National Title pick prior to the start of the College Football Playoff, and I think they keep on chugging along here.
The Pick: Texas, 35 Arizona State, 21
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