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| Brayden Burries, Arizona |
(3) Illinois Fighting Illini vs. (2) UConn Huskies
Line: Illinois -1.5
Illinois and UConn will get the festivities started in Indianapolis on Saturday night, two programs with a very different history. The Illini have evolved into a consistent contender under head coach Brad Underwood, but they'll be playing in their first Final Four game in over two decades. Meanwhile, UConn has won four National Titles in that span and is just two wins away from another, which would be the third under Dan Hurley. Despite those differences, this has all the ingredients of a fun, high-scoring affair in Lucas Oil Stadium.
As opposed to their last two National Title runs, which saw the Huskies decimate everything in their path, this NCAA Tournament has been all about finding ways to win close games. UConn got tested by Furman in the opener, went down to the wire with Michigan State in the Sweet 16, and then completed a shocking comeback against Duke to advance to the Final Four. It says something about Hurley as a coach and this entire team - they've taken their lumps on the season, but have consistently shown up when it mattered most. It helps that this year's group is incredibly balanced, not forced to rely on just 1-2 players to make the big shots. Big man Tarris Reed Jr. is their top scorer and a force on the defensive end, but veteran Alex Karaban and guards Solo Ball and Silas Demary Jr. play important roles. That's not even to mention freshman Braylon Mullins, who was the one who hit the last-second shot to vault the Huskies over Duke in the Elite Eight. What separates this team is the winning pedigree and experience up and down the roster. Karaban has been a part of multiple National Champion teams. Ball and Demary have played a bunch of basketball in their careers. Reed has gotten better each and every year in college, rising from a bench piece in his two seasons at Michigan to a fearsome low post presence. When you get to this stage, that experience is crucial, when so many games are won at the margins. Illinois has looked like the better team, but the intangibles favor the Huskies. Even if they get down early, which very well could happen, you have to believe this team will battle until the very last second.
For Illinois, the feel of this team is a bit different than past editions. We've come to expect great Underwood teams, but to finally break through and reach the Final Four it's been all about something the Illini are not known for: stifling defense. Illinois has always been able to run up the score, but this team has the versatility, perimeter defenders, and shot blockers to be a persistent pain on defense. It's shown with their recent wins - they held Houston to 34% shooting and out-rebounded the Cougars, a rare sight against Kelvin Sampson-coached teams. Against Iowa in the Elite Eight, the Illini held them to 38% shooting and again dominated the glass. They didn't allow a single starter not named Bennett Stirtz to score over 5 points, completely ruining any offensive rhythm from the Hawkeyes. The big men, namely the Ivisic brothers, will get most of the attention, but guys like David Mirkovic and Jake Davis are so crucial to locking up the paint and controlling the glass. That frees up the guards to really do the damage on offense, where Keaton Wagler and Andrej Stojakovic can shine, with Kylan Boswell as the glue guy. Both Wagler and Stojakovic have gone through their share of slumps, but both are playing their best basketball at the right time. If they are shooting the ball well, with the way Illinois is locking up defensively, it's hard to imagine the Huskies have the type of offensive punch to stick around in this game. Credit is due to Underwood - he has done an impressive job constructing the right roster, and adjusting what this team does to play to its strengths. You're not going to see the same run-and-gun mantra we have seen for so many years from the Illini. This team will play slower, but measured, basketball and make UConn fight every possession.
We saw these two square off earlier in the season at Madison Square Garden, with the Huskies coming away with a 13-point win. It was a game where Illinois simply could not get anything going on offense, and UConn was in complete control. Four months later, the Illini feel like a completely different team, one playing superb basketball on both ends. UConn's late-game heroics have been a great story, but something tells me the luck is going to run out at some point. Illinois is the better team as things stand today, and they prove it Saturday night.
Illinois by eight
(1) Michigan Wolverines vs. (1) Arizona Wildcats
Line: Michigan -1.5
It's been two decades since Illinois has played in a Final Four, but the wait has been even longer in Tucson for the Arizona Wildcats. They came awfully close multiple times under Sean Miller, but the Wildcats have not reached this stage since 2001, for the final time under the legendary Lute Olson. Now, they're back and facing down the Michigan Wolverines, who have risen from the Big Ten cellar to National Title frontrunners in just two years under head man Dusty May. A one seed clash will be the perfect way to conclude the night.
Arizona ripped off 23 straight wins to start the season, an impressive feat in any league but even more significant given the Big 12 landscape. Tommy Lloyd's club has not slowed down in March, as they've cruised past all the opposition in the NCAA Tournament, including a pair of really strong teams in Purdue and Arkansas. The offense has been elite all season, but it seems that this group is firing on all cylinders at the right moment. They dropped 109 points on Arkansas, shooting a staggering 64% from the field. The thing about the Wildcats is they don't shoot a ton of threes, at least compared to the other teams still standing on the season. In fact, few teams in all of Division I basketball shoot as few threes as this group, which is all about getting to the rim and finishing. It's pretty remarkable in this era of college basketball to be so good while doing the complete opposite of the way the sport has been going, but this is a team that understands their identity and plays to their strengths. Guards Jaden Bradley and Brayden Burries get downhill and finish through contact, Koa Peat has been the freshman phenom, and the bigs are all capable on both ends of the court. You don't see the star-power here at Arizona you see at Michigan, who has the Big Ten Player of the Year in Yaxel Lendeborg, but it's a deep and balanced roster. They have seven different Wildcats who average at least eight points per contest, and the entire rotation all contributes. I think that depth is going to play into the strategy you're going to see them deploy. They'll look to run even more so than usual, looking for easy buckets where they can avoid Michigan's shot-blockers, namely Lendeborg and the gigantic Aday Mara. How tight the refs call this game could also have a huge impact, as it often does. If this team is getting inside and getting to the free throw line, where they shoot the ball at an incredibly high rate, they have a clear edge over the Wolverines.
The Wolverines have had an incredible season of their own, spending a chunk of the season perched as the No. 1 team in all of the land. They're quite deep themselves, but it's the star power that jumps out at you here. Lendeborg likely would have been a first round NBA Draft selection this past summer, but made the decision to stay in college. It certainly seems to have worked out, as he's been the go-to guy on a team on the cusp of a National Title. He's the feature option, while guard Elliot Cadeau is the court general. Mara provides the size down low with Morez Johnson. And then there's the veteran pieces on the wings, Roddy Gayle Jr. and Nimari Burnett. There was some concern this week around Cadeau, who suffered an allergic reaction and whose status was somewhat up in the air. It sounds like the point guard will be 100 percent, which is going to be pivotal in this matchup. Statistically he doesn't necessarily blow you away, but his pace sets the stage for everything Michigan does. He's also going to have to lock down either Bradley or Burries, quite a fearsome backcourt duo. The pace the Wolverines play at is going to be interesting to watch. They hold a size advantage down low, but I'm not sure I see this team looking to just dump it down low and bang with the Wildcats for 40 minutes. Dusty May has been a coach that relies heavily on large guards, with one traditional back-to-the-basket big. This Michigan team is a bit different, but the positional versatility is where they are going to try and seek their own advantage. Mara and Johnson do have to stay out of foul trouble - this team is not as deep up front as they are on the wings or backcourt. Will Tschetter is really their only big beyond the trio of Mara, Johnson, and Lendeborg who sees minutes, and he plays just about 13 minutes per contest. That's an interesting storyline to watch here.
You can't go wrong picking either of these teams to advance. They've both proven they're two of the best teams in the country all season long, and have kept that stellar play going into the NCAA Tournament. I think we down to the wire in this one, with one or two plays deciding the winner. I'd be a bit surprised to see an all Big Ten Championship Game, and I've been so impressed with the Wildcats every time I've watched them. This is just such an incredibly disciplined, well-rounded basketball team that won't be afraid of the moment. I like them to advance to face the Illini in the National Championship Game.
Arizona by four
