Friday, October 4, 2024

College Football Picks 2024: Week Six

Marquis Johnson, Missouri

Current Picks Record: 28-16

Upsets: 2-3

Superdogs: 2-3

Locks: 1-4


(#9) Missouri Tigers @ (#25) Texas A&M Aggies

Line: Texas A&M -2.5

O/U: 48.5

Old Big 12 foes clash in the only ranked game of the weekend, with the ninth-ranked Missouri Tigers traveling to College Station to face Texas A&M. It hasn't always been a pretty start for Mike Elko and the Aggies, but they've done what they need to do over the course of a 4-1 start, while Missouri is looking to add a ranked win to their College Football Playoff resume.

The Texas A&M offense has looked a bit different than expected under first-year offensive coordinator Colin Klein, primarily because the person running it has been a new face in Marcel Reed. With Conner Weigman sidelined for a big chunk of the first month of the year, Reed has stepped in as starter and gone 3-0 as their quarterback. Weigman is listed as a game-time decision come Saturday, but something tells me it will be Reed out there in this one. With all due respect to Weigman, the offense has looked significantly better under Reed, and his rushing ability gives this Missouri defense something to worry about in a way they don't have to with Weigman. No matter who is starting quarterback, running the football will still be the name of the game for one of the top rushing attacks in the country. Le'Veon Moss has been a workhorse, and the change-of-pace ability of Amari Daniels, particularly combined with Reed's rushing, helps the Aggies ground-and-pound. A lot of credit should also go to an offensive line that has rolled with the punches so far in 2024, and looks like a much improved unit as they enter the weekend. It should set up an interesting battle against a Missouri defense that has looked surprisingly strong despite several major NFL defections in the offseason, not to mention the loss of coordinator Blake Baker to LSU. They've been very good against the pass, but will need to up their physicality and play with an edge in front of the raucous crowd of Kyle Field. 

Although the Tigers have to feel good about entering October 4-0, their last two games have left something to be desired. They won both, but got all they could handle from both Boston College and Vanderbilt, so there's clearly some work to be done. The offense has had no issues moving the ball, but has struggled to get it in for six when they've gotten in the red zone, leading to ample work for kicker Blake Craig, who already has 16 attempts on the young season. Quarterback Brady Cook has been good, but he needs more from a receiver corps that looked to be one of the best in all of the land entering the fall. That's not to say Missouri's receivers have been bad, but Luther Burden III and Mookie Cooper are much better than their stats may indicate. Marquis Johnson will also look to get more involved - the big-play threat in this offense last season, he's been held in check through the first five weeks. With Nate Noel having a strong start to the year out of the backfield, Missouri has been able to lean on the ground game, but the Aggies do present a challenge in that respect. This has long been a strong defensive front and they'll look to bring the heat consistently against Cook and company. How the Tigers handle the pressure and whether they are finally able to find the rhythm consistently through the air may make all the difference.

The Aggies enter this one more battle-tested and do get the Tigers at home, but I still like Missouri's chances to come in and pull off what is technically an upset. They have far too many offensive weapons to continue settling for field goals, and the A&M defense has lived and died off turnovers so far this fall. If Cook and company take care of the ball, I think they find a way to come out on top.

The Pick: Missouri, 34 Texas A&M, 24


(#10) Michigan Wolverines @ Washington Huskies

Line: Washington -2.5

O/U: 41.5

Welcome to life in the Big Ten, Washington! After traveling all the way to the East Coast to play Rutgers last Friday, the Huskies now return home and have to face off with the defending National Champions. Granted, this Wolverines team is not the same as the 2023 version, but they still enter the weekend as a Top 10 team with their Big Ten Title aspirations still intact. Will they be able to fly into Seattle and come out on top?

The switch at quarterback from Davis Warren to Alex Orji has not jumpstarted the Michigan passing game. Orji has thrown for just 118 yards since being handed control of the offense, and the Wolverines appear to just be accepting they will be a completely one-dimensional offense this season. Orji does bring an element with his legs, but he's still looking for his first big run of the season, working against stacked boxes throughout the remainder of the fall. Joining him in the backfield, Kalel Mullings has been a pleasant surprise, with 540 yards and six touchdowns to his name on the year, and completely outplaying Donovan Edwards. The mix of power and breakaway speed makes Mullings a difficult player to keep down for long, but it does feel like Edwards has to get more involved if Michigan is to hit their ceiling, as limited as it may be offensively. On the outside, no Wolverine has been able to consistently emerge, although tight end Colston Loveland getting back to 100 percent will be crucial. He's limited in what he can do in this offense, but remains a threat in both the play-action game and the red zone. Michigan can also take solace in the fact the offensive line seems to be improving each and every week, even if it still remains far below 2023 levels. That will be important against a Washington team that is still mixing and matching up front, but has some real athletes that will look to play downhill against the Wolverines.

Last weekend's loss to Rutgers was a fascinating one for the Huskies. Despite the fact they put up 521 total yards, as compared to 299 from the Scarlet Knights, and did not turn the ball over once, Washington managed just 18 points in a losing effort. Rutgers simply made the plays when they needed to, and its a script Michigan will undoubtedly attempt to replicate, particularly considering they have a similar defensive philosophy. Will Rogers and Jonah Coleman both were tremendous, but must find a way to punch the ball in the end zone in this one, and the Huskies need more from their receiver corps beyond Denzel Boston. This feels like an especially important game for Rogers, in his first year playing in the Pacific Northwest. He's always been a guy who puts up gaudy numbers, especially playing in a Mike Leach offense for years, but simply has not been able to win the big one. This is the type of matchup, in his final season of college football, where he proves his worth. He will benefit from a banged up Michigan defense, too, although star corner Will Johnson looks like he may be back for this one, as will safety Makari Paige. Getting Johnson back, even if he's not 100 percent, takes away an entire side of the field for Washington - the junior corner is just that good.

I've had a tough time getting a handle on both these teams so far this year. In both Washington games I've picked I've been wrong, and I picked the Michigan win over USC completely the other way. It almost feels like a true coin flip is the only way to decide this one, but I still lean Wolverines here, despite their limitations. This defense remains stout as ever as they get healthier, despite the shaky second half against Minnesota last weekend, and they should maintain an edge in the trenches. It may be an ugly one, but I think they find a way to secure a hard-fought win.

The Pick: Michigan, 23 Washington, 21


Iowa Hawkeyes @ (#3) Ohio State Buckeyes

Line: Ohio State -18.5

O/U: 44.5

Off to a 3-0 start and ranked No. 3 in the country, Ohio State has their eyes on a National Title, and their matchup against Oregon next weekend may be the most important in the conference all season. But, the Buckeyes can't get caught looking ahead against an upset-minded Iowa Hawkeyes team that has given them troubles in the past. At 3-1 with their only loss coming in the non-conference, Iowa is still very much alive in the Big Ten race and looking to come away with a huge win in Columbus.

It's no surprise to see Iowa leaning on their ground game, but they've taken it up a notch this year thanks to the breakout of tailback Kaleb Johnson. The junior has run for 685 yards and nine touchdowns over the course of their first four games, while averaging a startling 8.4 yards per carry. He's not just doing it against cupcakes, either - his 206 yards against Minnesota came against a Gopher rush defense that has been one of the best in the league the last several seasons. Even against an Ohio State defensive front that is loaded with future NFLers, Johnson is the type of gamebreaker that could help the Hawkeyes spring the upset. Of course, the Buckeyes will certainly counter with stacked boxes and heavy blitzes, so it does figure that quarterback Cade McNamara will have to do something if the Hawkeyes are to be successful. McNamara has not been asked to do much, and he isn't going to in this Iowa offense. But what they can't afford is him to turn the ball over, as he did in the heartbreaking loss to Iowa State in the Cy-Hawk game. Even if McNamara doesn't throw the ball much, especially against a secondary that includes playmakers like Caleb Downs and Denzel Burke, offensive coordinator Tim Lester is still going to have to manufacture yards somehow beyond Kaleb Johnson. We've seen them deploy jet sweeps, screens, and gadget plays more this year than in the past - whether that works against a defense with the athletes of Ohio State remains to be seen.

It's been smooth sailing for Ohio State out of the gate this fall, as they've cruised past a soft non-conference and their Big Ten opener against Michigan State. The offense has been firing on all cylinders, averaging nearly 49 points per contest, with a nice mix of run and the pass. And defensively they've been completely shutdown, allowing under a touchdown per game. Iowa will pose a challenge for this offense that they haven't seen yet. The Hawkeyes are always ferocious up front and have plenty of weapons in the back seven, including a truly elite linebacker in Jay Higgins. With the balance the Buckeyes have they should be able to draw up an effective enough gameplan to succeed. With that being said, I do wonder how the Buckeyes will be able to handle the potential adversity from this defense. With how breezy the first four weeks have been, they haven't taken a punch and gotten back up and recovered. Can they do that in this one? Considering that there are plenty of new faces throughout this roster, including transfer QB Will Howard, transfer back Quinshon Judkins, and true freshman phenom Jeremiah Smith, it's a fair question to ask. Still, this is the most talented roster top-to-bottom in the country, and I suspect the coaching staff is probably still hiding a few tricks up their sleeves they haven't had to show just yet.

It's impossible to know what to think of Ohio State at this point in the season - how much do you value beating up on inferior foes? But, there's little question about this team's talent and considering this one is in Columbus, they should still be able to get up for it, even with Oregon awaiting. Iowa is the type of frustrating team you never want to play, but they remain limited in much the same way Michigan is. As long as Ohio State takes care of the ball and plays disciplined football on the defensive end, they should come away with a comfortable win.

The Pick: Ohio State, 38 Iowa, 17


Other Picks

Rutgers Scarlet Knights @ Nebraska Cornhuskers -- A dream start to the season for Rutgers continued with a thrilling home win over Washington last week. Unfortunately they are back on the road this week and their rush offense will have to square off with a ferocious 'Husker defensive front.

The Pick: Nebraska, 24 Rutgers, 17

(#4) Tennessee Volunteers @ Arkansas Razorbacks -- Arkansas has been feisty this fall since Bobby Petrino has been brought on as offensive coordinator, and they have an upset opportunity at home here. Unfortunately, their defensive issues make it hard to believe they can stop Nico Iamaleava and the high-flying Volunteers in this one.

The Pick: Tennessee, 45 Arkansas, 27

Auburn Tigers @ (#5) Georgia Bulldogs -- Despite the rough start last weekend, Georgia showed a lot of fight clawing their way back into the game. Something tells me they'll be fired up against another SEC rival, and should have adjustments ready after their defense was shredded in the first half of the Alabama game.

The Pick: Georgia, 31 Auburn, 14

Upset: Syracuse Orange @ (#25) UNLV Rebels -- It's been a magical start to the year for UNLV, despite the Matthew Sluka situation complicating things off the field. However, I have a hard time imagining this team getting out of the regular season undefeated, and Syracuse is a legitimately good football team - they have enough to win a potential shootout.

The Pick: Syracuse, 44 UNLV, 35

Double Upset: (#8) Miami Hurricanes @ California Golden Bears -- I'm still wary about this Miami team, despite the impressive start. This is a program with a knack for losing games they shouldn't and Cam Ward is notoriously inconsistent. On the road against a Cal team that will try and make this one ugly feels like an upset spot.

The Pick: California, 28 Miami, 21

Lock of the Week: USC Trojans (-8) @ Minnesota Golden Gophers -- As much as it hurts to lock up USC against Minnesota, the Trojans are balanced offensively and playing really strong defense. The Gophers heartbreaking loss to Michigan last week may still be front of mind.

The Pick: USC, 34 Minnesota, 21


No comments: