Current Picks Record: 39-23
Garrett Nussmeier, LSU
Upsets: 3-5
Superdogs: 3-3
Locks: 2-5
(#8) LSU Tigers @ (#14) Texas A&M Aggies
Line: Texas A&M -2.5
O/U: 53.5
Although their resume has taken a slight hit with USC's continued struggles, LSU has played themselves into good position to make a College Football Playoff run as they prepare for the back-half of their schedule. Unfortunately, that back-half schedule includes three ranked foes, plus a trip to The Swamp to match up with Florida. First up is Texas A&M, who has also recovered in impressive fashion from a season-opening loss, quietly ripping off six straight victories under first-year head man Mike Elko.
For so long, LSU's offense was defined by their ground-and-pound, grinding style. But, multiple Heisman-winning quarterbacks later, this has become an offense all about the pass, with Garrett Nussmeier the latest player putting up big number under center. Nussmeier has come on and replaced Jayden Daniels without much of a drop-off, throwing for 2,222 yards and 18 touchdowns over their first seven contests. Turnovers have been a problem in recent weeks, with multi-pick games against South Alabama and Ole Miss, but the junior has still shown an excellent command of the offense, and his huge arm has made this Tiger aerial attack quite potent down the field. Of course, it helps that he is surrounded by weapons in this LSU offense, with the likes of Kyren Lacy, Aaron Anderson, and tight end Mason Taylor keeping defenses constantly on their toes. It's a group that not only continues to get better each and every week, but has the versatility to attack defenses in a variety of ways. With all that being said, I remain curious if we see LSU continue to attempt to bring some balance to this offense with their ground game. Caden Durham has been good when given the opportunity, rushing for over six yards per carry, but the Tigers often haven't had to lean on his services. That is, until last week, when he ran for over 100 yards against Arkansas on 21 carries. I suspect that had more to do with matchups than a shift in philosophy, and the Tigers don't have the clear edge in the trenches against Texas A&M they had against the Razorbacks. No, this has the looks of another game where LSU is going to look to air it out. It will be interesting to see how it goes - the Aggie pass defense has been strong all season, but they have legitimate NFL athletes up front to counter LSU's O-Line. We are going to learn a lot about both units in this one, and how they fare should tell us plenty about how things will go down the stretch.
Conner Weigman opened up his 2024 season with a rough showing in the loss to Notre Dame, going just 12-30 and throwing two interceptions in the eventual defeat. But after missing time due to injury, he's looked re-energized in his last two games against Missouri and Mississippi State, and seems to be entering this one with momentum. His two turnovers against Mississippi State may be of slight concern, but he faces an LSU defense that still struggles to defend the pass, despite their massive improvements across the board under new coordinator Blake Baker. That makes me think Colin Klein and the Aggies may be more aggressive throwing the ball than we have seen for much of the year, when they've leaned on Le'Veon Moss to fuel a methodical offense. Texas A&M doesn't have the athletes on the perimeter LSU features, but look for Noah Thomas and Cyrus Allen to still feature heavily, two players who are true deep threats. Moss will still get his fair share of touches, as will change-of-pace Amari Daniels, but this is a difficult LSU defense to run against. They're not only nasty on the defensive line, this is a superb linebacker corps that has become led by rising sophomore Whit Weeks, who already has 68 weeks tackle on the year. Between Weeks and veteran Greg Penn III, the Tigers have been much more creative with what they've been able to do on the year, and have the range in their linebacker corps necessary to play from sideline to sideline. Klein has had time to prepare and has done a fine job in his first year in College Station, but this is the most difficult test since Notre Dame, who flummoxed this A&M offense the entire way.
This time of year, it feels like so many of these big games are coin flips, and this one has the same energy. Both offenses are playing well, but they run into a pair of defenses playing arguably even better, especially considering LSU's defensive turnaround. Even with the passing attacks both can feature, I get the feeling this could be like the A&M-Notre Dame game in that it becomes a low-scoring slugfest. In many ways that favors the Aggies at home, but I remain confident in what LSU can do, and I like their chances to continue the positive momentum.
The Pick: LSU, 31 Texas A&M, 28
(#12) Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ (#24) Navy Midshipmen
Line: Notre Dame -12.5
O/U: 52.5
Just as everyone expected, one of the biggest games on a strong Week Nine slate is none other than Notre Dame traveling to Annapolis to square off with the undefeated Navy Midshipmen. The Irish coming in at 6-1 doesn't come as a significant surprise, but the 6-0 Midshipmen have been one of the sport's most exciting surprises. Can they keep it up and pull off the upset in this long-standing rivalry?
Navy remains defined by their rush offense, which once again ranks as one of the best in the nation, averaging over 274 yards per game. However, this rush offense looks different than what Navy has become synonymous for over the years. Instead of running the triple option nearly exclusively out of the flexbone, the Midshipmen often run out of shotgun, and use creative shifts and motion to confuse opposing defenses. It's been highly effective all season long - averaging over 44 points per game in a run-orientated offense speaks for itself. They'll look to throw the ball more often than you might think, as well, with junior quarterback Blake Horvath putting together an impressive season through the air. Teams become so sucked into stopping the run, Horvath is able to float things over the top, often for huge gains, at an efficient rate. Now, Navy faces their greatest challenge of the season in this Irish defense. This is a group vastly different than what they've seen in the American Athletic. Notre Dame is massive up front, and has NFL athletes at every level. Not only that, but Al Golden is one of the great defensive tacticians currently in college football, and should have this team well prepared. Notre Dame also has an advantage in that they see this triple-option look every single season with this Navy rivalry. It's still a pain to prepare for, particularly this new-look triple, but this coaching staff has plenty of tape to fall back on.
There's been growing pains for this Notre Dame offense as they've broken in a new play-caller, new quarterback, and plenty of fresh faces all around. But, this unit seems to be trending up, putting up 31 points or more in their last three contests. The passing attack still remains fairly lethargic, although Riley Leonard seems to be getting healthier each week and forming chemistry with this receiver group, but the ground game has been a consistent fuel all fall long. Jeremiyah Love and Leonard have proven to be quite the 1-2 punch, with both over 400 yards on the season and averaging six or more yards per carry. Jadarian Price also provides the lightning to Love's thunder, giving the Irish three players who can absolutely kill opposing defenses. All of this is working behind an offensive line that also took their lumps early on, but has improved with each and every snap they've played, and seems to have the confidence necessary to keep things humming. For Navy, it's not a terrible matchup, as this is a defense that has traditionally excelled at defending the run. With that being said, this is a defense, and a roster as a whole, that simply doesn't have the size or the athletes Notre Dame features. That's not everything, but it's certainly a hill for them to climb in this one.
Navy is going to be quite the change-of-pace in terms of opponent for the Irish after they faced three straight ACC foes. They'll be quite the challenge in just the way they play and how they slow this one down, but the Irish aren't afraid to get into an ugly, physical, grinding type of game. This is a team built to outlast, and I think they'll do just that against Navy.
The Pick: Notre Dame, 24 Navy, 17
(#21) Missouri Tigers @ (#15) Alabama Crimson Tide
Line: Alabama -16.5
O/U: 51.5
As crazy as it sounds, Alabama enters Week Nine in "must win" territory if they want to keep their College Football Playoff hopes alive after a loss to Tennessee last weekend. With two losses, the Tide simply can't afford another - but now welcome a Top 25 team to town in Missouri, who is looking to manufacture some momentum of their own after a hard-fought win over Auburn a week ago.
It was surprising to see how much Alabama's offense struggled during the loss to Tennessee last Saturday. the Volunteers have done a complete 180 in 2024, led by their defense as opposed to a typically explosive offense, but the Tide still managed just 17 points and looked flat for much of the game. Jalen Milroe moved the ball, but his two interceptions proved to be costly. However, the greater concern for Alabama has to be how completely ineffective their rushing attack looked, averaging just 2.2 yards per carry on just 75 yards total. You can live with Milroe's ups-and-downs at this point - he's going to make plenty of spectacular plays and just about as many head-scratching ones, but this team is going to have a real tough time down the stretch if they can't run the ball. That will be on the offensive line to figure it out, a unit that seemed to be getting better each and every week after early injuries, before getting pushed around by a physical Tennessee defensive front. That has to be the X-factor in this one for the Tide, as they face a Missouri defense that doesn't quite have the athletes Tennessee boasts, but still features a particularly strong rush defense. If there is a silver lining for Alabama, the receiver corps, notably Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard, continues to make big plays and should be ready against a Missouri pass defense that has taken their lumps at times. With Milroe's huge arm, there should be plenty of fireworks, if he can manage the turnovers that often accompany them.
Missouri has also had their share of offensive woes, which has come as a bit of a shock considering just how much the Tigers returned on this side of the ball entering the fall. On paper, this remains one of the most talented receiver groups in the nation, with Luther Burden III, Theo Wease, and Mookie Cooper, but they just haven't looked in a rhythm for much of the year. The Auburn game was more of the same, as the Tigers still found a way to win, but still looked off throughout much of the contest. With that in mind, it's discouraging that quarterback Brady Cook's status appears doubtful for this one after suffering a non-contact injury last weekend. Cook was rushed to the hospital and returned for late-game heroics, but is now listed as doubtful and even if he is able to tough it out, it's hard to imagine him being anywhere close to 100 percent. Add in the fact that lead back Nate Noel is dealing with health issues of his own, Missouri is facing significant adversity as they prep for this game. Backup quarterback Drew Pyne provides some level of comfort in that he's a known commodity with ample game experience under his belt through his time at Notre Dame and Arizona State. But anybody who has watched Pyne understands that he's far from a game-changer at the position - the Tigers are going to have to be creative in moving the ball if he does indeed start. Alabama's defense has had their share of struggles, especially among a youthful secondary, but Kane Wommack should have this group ready after a strong performance in the losing effort against Tennessee.
The line on this one has shifted as the result of Cook's injury, with Alabama now favored by 16.5 to 17 points depending on where you look. In many ways, that's understandable considering the circumstances, but the Tide aren't exactly playing their best brand of football at the moment. I still like them to come out on top, but it wouldn't shock if this ends up being an ugly one.
The Pick: Alabama, 28 Missouri, 20
Other Picks
(#20) Illinois Fighting Illini @ (#1) Oregon Ducks -- The last time Oregon rose to No. 1 in the polls, back in 2012, they lost the week following to Stanford. While Illinois has been a great story, I don't envision that happening here, as the Illini must travel to rocking Autzen Stadium.
The Pick: Oregon, 37 Illinois, 21
(#5) Texas Longhorns @ (#25) Vanderbilt Commodores -- Can Diego Pavia and the magical Vanderbilt Commodores pull off another upset over an SEC giant? They're a team nobody wants to play right now, but I suspect the Longhorns will be back with a vengeance after an uninspired effort in last weekend's loss to Georgia.
The Pick: Texas, 35 Vanderbilt, 23
Nebraska Cornhuskers @ (#4) Ohio State Buckeyes -- Nebraska was looking like a legitimate Big Ten Title contender entering last weekend at 5-1, with a chance to pull off an upset against a ranked Indiana team. Following a 56-7 defeat, the 'Huskers now have to travel to Columbus to face a motivated Ohio State team. With Matt Rhule just 2-20 against Top 25 teams in his college career, this one feels pretty clear.
The Pick: Ohio State, 45 Nebraska, 17
Upset: (#22) SMU Mustangs @ Duke Blue Devils -- SMU could easily be sitting at 7-0 and as a CFB Playoff contender if not for a close defeat to BYU earlier in the year. But it feels like somebody in the ACC is going to catch the conference newcomers this season and between the season-ending injury to tight end R.J. Maryland and SMU potentially looking ahead to a ranked matchup with Pittsburgh, I like Duke's chances to spring an upset.
The Pick: Duke, 28 SMU, 24
Superdog (covers > 21 point spread): Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (+25) @ James Madison Dukes -- Southern Miss is now led by an interim head coach after Will Hall was dumped this past week, so it's no surprise they are heavy underdogs at James Madison. But, you can never be too sure with an interim - will this galvanize the team? The Dukes aren't exactly lighting the world on fire, either, so the Golden Eagles have a real chance to cover this spread.
The Pick: James Madison, 34 Southern Miss, 14
Lock of the Week: Arizona Wildcats (-3) vs. West Virginia Mountaineers -- Arizona has been maddening to watch this season, in the midst of a three-game skid despite one of the better rosters in the Big 12. I remain convinced this team is much better than their record may indicate, and they welcome another disappointment to town in West Virginia, who has looked overmatched in recent weeks.
The Pick: Arizona, 35 West Virginia, 27
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